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all right everybody welcome back to the
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Allin podcast the number
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one Finance technology business and Maga
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podcast in the
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world with us again today is the sulate
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of science David freeberg living a
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modern 1950s aesthetic lifestyle there
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this is the uh House of Tomorrow House
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of the future world at the original um
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1955 Tomorrowland at Disneyland wow and
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you have a NASA hat on this is amazing
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he's in full geek out mode yeah I didn't
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this I told you guys about this haircut
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last week because you couldn't blow
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yourself that's right properly I told
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you this would happen to you it's
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exactly what your M said would happen
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look at the continuity he told you you
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could never match the blow you got last
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week and here we are I did my best I
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mean it looks ridiculous but stylish in
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a way and with us again your chairman
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dictator chamath poly hop
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he's ready to go to the
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inauguration and take his Victory lap
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and take an enormous amount of credit
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shamad are you looking forward to your
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Victory lap I was in Florida earlier
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this week I came all the way back so
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that I could play poker with my friends
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and see my family and children oh nice
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and I'll be flying all the way back out
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tomorrow morning were you at maral Lago
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no I was with my friend in a undisclosed
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location with a friend in an undisclosed
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location okay sounds great and joining
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us for the first time one of my oldest
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friends Mr Mark Pinkus or as we like to
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say Marcus Pinkus why do you always take
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credit for these guests being only your
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friends the rest of us are the ones that
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call them and are like hey do you want
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to come on the show and then you're like
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my old think longer than you I don't
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know about that is that true back to
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like AOL yeah well we met when you were
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doing silicon alley right reporter yeah
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in the 90s I've been collecting rent
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from Mark pinkis for the last year it's
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true my landlord you should whistleblow
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on freeberg to Gavin's gouging police
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and see if you can get
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some let your winners
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[Music]
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ride
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[Music]
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David we open sources to the fans and
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they've just gone crazy with it Queen
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we'll get right to that in a minute uh
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the price couch continues if our viewers
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had to vote on who is most likely to
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price couch it's 100% free BR th% but
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let's be clear the real gouging is the
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predio trust who's charging an amazingly
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high rent like over $100 a foot and then
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freeberg was actually giving me a pretty
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good deal he was getting a pretty good
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deal I was paying like 130 a foot or
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something 120 130 a foot all in uh for
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real estate in the Presidio and we just
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weren't using the space but it is the
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most expensive real estate it is nuts
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quite an office my Lord the prio trust
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manages that federal land and they get
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to keep all the money and reinvest it
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it's probably the only profitable
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operation in the federal government I
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used to be on the board so I I saw it
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close up and they they reinvest in
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things like you know restoring natural
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habitats cutting down eucalyptus trees
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right you know archaeological digs right
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right it was really interesting I looked
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at one of those those
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houses to rent when it was first moving
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up to San Francisco and the only problem
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with those houses have these gorgeous
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houses that were like the General's
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houses like three four five bedrooms but
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they would have one
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bathroom right for four rooms and I like
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can you put another bathroom and cannot
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change anything these are historic
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privileges so you know historic
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landmarks marked it freeloader tribe
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social network back in the day
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support.com and if you wasted some
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portion of your youth playing
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Farmville he was one of the original app
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creators or Zinga poker which famously
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he said hey would you like to be an
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investor in Zinga poker and I said how
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does it work he said oh well you play
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for virtual coins and I said Mark this
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is the stupidest thing I've ever heard
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you've taken all of the money out of the
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the the game it's never going to work
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and of course he turned it into a
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multi-billion dollar company and that
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was another $25 million Angel investment
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Miss on my part but Mark you were also
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like early General social networking you
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were involved in Facebook as an investor
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Linked In weren't you like ear on yeah I
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I think the first social media
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investment I made was Napster I sent the
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first check Wow first $100,000 I think
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of that as the beginning of all this but
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then yeah Reed and I put up the first
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money for
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friender and then we were lucky enough
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to invest along with Peter in the first
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round Facebook wow the First on on
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Twitter so yeah like pick the right body
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of water even if your boat doesn't tribe
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didn't
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work but but you placed five other bats
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so you hit a couple of them it works out
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just
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fine you uh I believe you owned the six
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degrees patents the original social
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network in the 90s in web 1.0 was a
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company called six degrees and uh they
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had a bunch of patents and I believe you
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bought them and then sold them to
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Facebook yeah no we didn't sell them
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Reed and I bought them because we were
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worried that if Yahoo at the time had
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gotten them or even Friendster that they
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would have blocked the whole industry so
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we bought them we we paid 750k which was
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a lot then and we were accused of being
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patent trolls and we never got that
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opportunity we just sat on them to this
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day actually I own half and Microsoft
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owns other half are you still close with
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with Reed Mark yeah very close how did
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you guys reconcile your differences and
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political views in this last election
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because he was very vocal kamla you
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obviously became vocal Trump and very
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kind of kind of diametrically different
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views on the
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future well it's interesting because
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Reed and I really started the whole kind
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of journey into bigger National politics
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together we both sat down and had lunch
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with Biden and made wrote big checks uh
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a little over a year ago December of
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23 and and then you know won't bother
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you but I I had my red pill moment and I
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went a very different direction which
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started off just questioning the
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Democrats hold on hold on can you
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actually just double click into that
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what was your red pill moment was there
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one specific thing or was it more of a
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trickle of things it was both right it
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starts the wall starts crumbling and
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then it comes down all at once so for me
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it really
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started early in 23 I started reading
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pirate wires and Mike salana and I
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thought he was a little crazy at first
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because he would write these articles
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one he wrote was about how the Ukrainian
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soldiers had swastikas on their helmets
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in the New York Times photographers
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would ask them to take the saskas off
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for photos and I said that can't be
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right that can't be true
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and then four months later it was in the
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New York Times buried in the middle of
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the paper and I kept seeing stories like
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that that that he would be early on and
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so I just started feeling uncomfortable
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and Queasy about what was going on with
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mainstream media and then in May of last
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year of 24 I read some article that
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talked about Trump's speech in
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Charlottesville and this has been well
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covered but but where he said there was
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good people on both sides Ides and the
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article said it was completely you know
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propaganda and not what he actually not
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accurately reflecting what he said that
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uh that he denounced the Nazis a bunch
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of times in his speech and so then I
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went and watched that video and that was
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my red pill moment I think it was for a
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lot of people because it wasn't just the
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media spinning it or politicians
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spinning it that was like one of the
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pillars of why you were supposed to hate
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Trump
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that speech and and then you
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see Biden say that's why he had to run a
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second time and you see Obama go to you
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even see Biden bring it up again in the
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beginning of the DNC and it's one of
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their pillars and they clearly know that
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they're misrepresenting things so for me
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that was just that was beyond
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uncomfortable I was just like okay now I
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got to go back to First principles and
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look at the primary data and listen only
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to original speech by people and I just
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realized I couldn't trust mainstream
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media so I was I became I started
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questioning the Democrats as soon as I
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started questioning the Democrats I
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started getting a lot of Shame and anger
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and hatred oh the other thing that
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happened those part of this journey is
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that my chief of staff parted ways with
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me after nine years in April of last
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year and he was the main person
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protecting me from myself on Twitter and
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he was the one who would say stay in
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your lane nobody wants to hear what you
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think about politics or San Francisco or
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anything other than you know your area
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of products and investing and with him
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gone I just started tweeting whatever I
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felt and thought and sometimes I got it
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wrong or it was a little too emotional
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but first of all it was really fun and
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then second of all I found I got
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connected to this whole new audience of
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people who are these kind of techno
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optimists I think you guys probably
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talked about
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it and
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that just brought me down this path that
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eventually I came out two days before
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the
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election publicly for Trump um and it
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was only because that's when I
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completely got there and I was trying to
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just be completely honest and authentic
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with myself and on Twitter at the same
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time and my daughters turned to me that
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Sunday and they said you're you're going
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to vote for Trump we know it and I said
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yeah you're probably right and they said
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well then you have to go say it on
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Twitter and my daughter's like really in
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this with me yeah so anyway and then it
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was on the front page of the New York
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Post on the day of the election that I
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was uh this not that I'm such news but
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maybe it just was their news Peg um that
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I was coming out for Trump and but I'll
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get back to your re question but what I
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love about my New York Times about my
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New York friends is that they did not
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give a they were all proa and they
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texted me and they're just like oh
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that's kind of funny but it's one thing
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I kind of love about New York they
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didn't care back to your question on
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Reed what I love about Reed was he was
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already getting pings from people saying
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what's going on with pinkis he's going
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off the rails he's becoming a Trumper
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you know it's you guys I'm sure have
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gone down got a little bit of that too
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about shamas in
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freeberg yeah me like what's wrong with
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him we got to bring him back into the
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fold you know he's he's should we lock
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him up is he crazy um and so Reed was
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already getting these I had a lot of
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anxiety about talking to Reed about it
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and finally Reed and I got on
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FaceTime and he just said I just want to
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start by saying I'm team Mark and I said
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I'm team Reed and it gets out a little
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you know a a but well no Americans can
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get along even if they disagree ically
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about a candidate is probably where we
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need to get to especially you know now
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that Trump's going to be in office in a
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couple of days what was it like when you
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had for Biden yeah okay well just to
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finish the read part sorry but no
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problem what what I love about Reed is
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that we followed that with a 4-Hour
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dinner and he said I never questioned
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your principles he said I know you're a
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highly principled person and I just want
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to understand which principles it is and
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I'd like to convince to change your mind
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but anyway so was hold on one second
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so I you said something almost in
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passing but I just want to double click
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I think part of what Silicon Valley
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actually gets wrong is that we don't
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embrace the tism and what I mean by that
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is everybody we're all a little socially
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uncomfortable we awkward I wouldn't say
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that we were the coolest people growing
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up and there this virulent form of
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blockers you called it Chief of Staff I
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think that these folks can be very
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detrimental which almost represent this
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filter between your true self and
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everybody else and there is this game
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that's played about being a
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gatekeeper I do think that executive
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assistants are valuable administrative
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assistance are valuable the reason I can
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say this is that my EA went on maternity
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leave I had and I experimented with a
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chief of staff Etc and now I use Jason
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service called Athena and I have a guy
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that works with me in the
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Philippines and it's about 3,000 a month
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and I can honestly tell you this guy is
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the single most effective administrative
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support I've ever had and what there
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isn't is all these opinions on what I
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can say or do and I think that when you
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look at a lot of these big companies if
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you look at zuck's current
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transformation or what you just spoke
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about there are all these
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Interlopers that seem to get in the
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middle of you and people's perception of
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you I don't know if you have any
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comments or reactions to that idea yeah
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it's part of where I know you guys have
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talked about Zuck coming out as Lisa's
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based or his seemingly more authentic
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self or sharing more about himself and I
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can relate to it because I think we all
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go through this this struggle as you
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start to be more of a known person
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inside your company outside your company
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and you have people around you taking
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the edges off and I think that we're now
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in this time that I think we're having
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authenticity is having a moment now
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which is great for me because Reed said
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to me I I've if you Google me you'll see
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that there's lots and lots of bad things
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written about me and a lot of it is my
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high school quote was some people have
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tacked and others tell the truth and
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I've always been kind of just committed
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to being honest even if it's nuanced and
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it's not an easy sound bite and Reed
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said to me early on you need to pick
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what the easy narrative is or the Press
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is going to make it up for you and he
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was right and they did or my competitors
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did so I think that now with long form
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podcasts and there's just more and the
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fact that we can kind of directly in a
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lot of ways Elon was the first one to
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directly defend himself you remember
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when well he fired his whole do you
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remember when he fired his whole PR team
00:15:40
he fired all those people there's just
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like there's none of that infrastructure
00:15:44
between him and and everybody else but
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do you remember when he would be on
00:15:49
Twitter all the time post PayPal trying
00:15:51
to correct the story and just write long
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long diet tribes and then and then when
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a New York Times reported said something
00:15:59
negative about a Tesla he just went off
00:16:02
for weeks about them and and it seemed a
00:16:05
little crazy and deranged and then you
00:16:06
started to see that it worked like he
00:16:08
actually and we were told don't defend
00:16:11
yourself if something bad is written
00:16:12
about you you're going to prolong the
00:16:14
press cycle you're going to make the
00:16:17
journalist
00:16:19
angry and so we've we're now Unshackled
00:16:22
I I teach this class at Stanford and I
00:16:24
taught two backtack on Monday and I
00:16:27
looked around and I saw half the plaque
00:16:29
her said you know she her you know he
00:16:33
him his and I got a little Pang of like
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oh do I have to watch what I'm saying
00:16:37
I'm like no I don't I'm Unshackled I'm
00:16:40
just gonna this is just me and I'm gonna
00:16:43
be Mark unfiltered and it's the better
00:16:45
version of ourselves so anyway I I'm
00:16:48
glad that Zuck feels like he can be he
00:16:51
can present more of his complete self
00:16:55
out there now and I think we can get
00:16:57
into it later but I have a lot of
00:16:59
thoughts on how the culture is going to
00:17:01
kind of move more towards Bas back to
00:17:03
the other question with Biden that lunch
00:17:06
you had did he seem like he was all
00:17:09
there yeah come on was it in the
00:17:11
afternoon I mean did you have concerns
00:17:13
about that that was sharp as attack that
00:17:16
was thing that broke me I mean I'm not
00:17:18
saying I'm like full mag over here I was
00:17:20
like wait a second are you guys lying
00:17:22
about this like how long is this and how
00:17:25
deep is this cover up I have no horse in
00:17:27
this race I didn't have a horse in the
00:17:29
race so I had nothing to lie about I for
00:17:32
sure don't now I'm really not a Biden
00:17:35
fan or
00:17:37
protector I'll tell you like the exact
00:17:41
my exact observation we we had this
00:17:44
lunch there was like maybe five of us
00:17:47
with Biden and a few of his Finance
00:17:49
people in they had it in the tennis
00:17:52
house which is the way they found that
00:17:55
they can have a fundraising lunch on the
00:17:57
property of the White House they found
00:17:59
some way we'll see if if Trump does it
00:18:01
hole right yeah the loophole and and it
00:18:04
was I was impressed it was a long launch
00:18:06
it must have been hour and a half two
00:18:07
hours and I'll tell you the good and the
00:18:10
bad the good the part I was impressed
00:18:13
was he kept the conversation thread he
00:18:16
was engaged and kept the thread the
00:18:18
whole time when people you say sharp as
00:18:21
attack or kept the thread that's how we
00:18:24
talk about like our 90-year-old
00:18:26
grandparent or something so I'm just
00:18:28
saying the reality to me he he was
00:18:32
not he did not seem mentally debilitated
00:18:37
in the sense of
00:18:39
dementia but we were impressed that he
00:18:42
was able to follow the conversation
00:18:45
thread and then say you know but okay
00:18:48
let me say it differently would you have
00:18:50
had the same bar if it was Jamie Diamond
00:18:53
sitting across from you for 2our
00:18:56
lunch no no so so so yes it was it was
00:19:00
wow your grandfather is holding up
00:19:03
really well like your grandfather was
00:19:05
able to have a whole lunch and hold the
00:19:08
conversation but it wasn't I didn't walk
00:19:11
away saying I I have to admit I did not
00:19:14
walk away saying I think he's mentally
00:19:15
unfit but I did but and I wasn't shocked
00:19:20
but I was like okay this is someone
00:19:22
who's being really handled and managed
00:19:24
by the people around him and he's being
00:19:26
told to show up here say say this but I
00:19:30
will say he was he was not on an obvious
00:19:32
script which I know I think famously he
00:19:35
did some fundraiser at vod's house where
00:19:38
he was reading a prompter the whole time
00:19:40
so wasn't reading a
00:19:42
prompter yeah that at a at a person's
00:19:46
home they brought a teleprompter for him
00:19:48
to speak wow that's you didn't hear that
00:19:50
I didn't actually that's new information
00:19:52
that's yeah crazy but I mean In fairness
00:19:56
like the um there's this issue called
00:19:58
Sun Downing people who are in that age
00:20:01
group they're good in the day and then
00:20:03
the sun goes down and you know their
00:20:06
brains are exhausted and and that's when
00:20:09
you would see it and that's what they
00:20:10
said about the debate but for me that
00:20:12
was the the coronation of comma and like
00:20:15
not actually having a speedrun primary
00:20:17
that to me was just anti-democratic
00:20:20
anti-American and like just what
00:20:22
happened to Meritt and like having a
00:20:24
process here right that's when I felt
00:20:26
like the party just CED
00:20:29
I'm glad you're here let's jump um okay
00:20:31
but let me ask you a question before we
00:20:32
get into the doc we got a lot to talk
00:20:34
about obviously but what do you think
00:20:36
the Democratic party does from here like
00:20:38
is everybody's like this they're lost in
00:20:40
a drift we're not even hearing from them
00:20:43
maybe a little bit of uh push back I
00:20:46
guess at
00:20:47
these Senate hearings right now for
00:20:50
confirmations but what do you think
00:20:52
happens is there any hope for this and
00:20:55
and who would lead them out of this
00:20:56
Shapiro somebody
00:20:59
AOC I think that what my brain my kind
00:21:03
of intelligent front of brain would tell
00:21:06
me the logical thing which I think I
00:21:09
want to say is one lens that I think we
00:21:12
have to be careful not to just apply
00:21:13
logic here because it's parties and and
00:21:16
the Democrats but the logic would say oh
00:21:19
they're going to find based authentic
00:21:22
people to put up against these other
00:21:24
ones like the kind of Federman types
00:21:27
that they're going to put those people
00:21:30
forth who are more Centrist and also are
00:21:34
more trustworthy that they're actually
00:21:36
authentic in their flaws that's what my
00:21:38
brain would tell me I think there'll be
00:21:40
a little of that that the party I
00:21:43
believe is will move more that way I
00:21:46
think that the corporate candidates
00:21:48
aren't going to fly anymore with the
00:21:50
electorate I think that the managed
00:21:53
corporate through sound bites can't do a
00:21:56
long form things like this I think
00:21:59
that's over and we can get into that
00:22:02
later if we want but I think they won't
00:22:05
go as far as they should so so they the
00:22:08
they won't go as far as like what I
00:22:10
think we would intelligently advise them
00:22:12
to do so so that's as much as I can
00:22:16
figure out that they should do that but
00:22:18
they won't interesting well we're
00:22:20
certainly going to find out in the next
00:22:22
year or two what their direction is when
00:22:24
they get to the midterms I suppose oh
00:22:27
one more thing though on it is yeah and
00:22:29
a lot of it depends on really what we
00:22:32
see and if if Doge starts to really get
00:22:36
popular support this whole I think you
00:22:38
guys talked about this last week that
00:22:39
the more that FDR style Trump and people
00:22:44
get popular support it's going to become
00:22:47
a more and more isolating lonely place
00:22:50
in two years to still be like you know
00:22:53
California Gavin everyone saying don't
00:22:56
worry we're going to protect you against
00:22:58
these people if if they're doing things
00:23:00
that are popular to still saying you're
00:23:02
protecting against them I think won't
00:23:04
fly well that's a a great jump off point
00:23:06
because Gavin does seem and Karen bass
00:23:09
seem like their careers are ending and
00:23:10
they're in the last stages of trying to
00:23:13
maybe get a little bit more pragmatic
00:23:16
based is the word people might use for
00:23:17
that just being super candid but let's
00:23:20
get let's get into a little bit of an
00:23:22
update here about the absolute tragedy
00:23:24
occurring in Los Angeles the death toll
00:23:26
is now at 25 uh ,000 structures have
00:23:29
been destroyed it's mostly people's
00:23:31
homes it's 40,000 Acres that's 60 square
00:23:34
miles I think San Francisco is 7 by S
00:23:38
miles right so this is a lot of uh space
00:23:41
it's bigger than all of San Francisco
00:23:44
the Palisades and eaten fires are still
00:23:46
burning and as of Wednesday 80,000
00:23:49
people were under evacuation
00:23:52
orders couple of our friends lost their
00:23:54
homes and uh but they survived but the
00:23:58
story of losing everything are just
00:24:00
tragic every
00:24:02
memory all your personal documents
00:24:04
photos art whatever that you've
00:24:07
collected over a lifetime I just had two
00:24:09
conversations with people and they were
00:24:11
just in shock the estimates right now of
00:24:15
damage are between 135 billion and $150
00:24:19
billion this is some of the most
00:24:21
expensive real estate on the planet it's
00:24:24
10 times more costly than any other
00:24:26
wildfire in history according to reports
00:24:29
uh you might remember the campfire near
00:24:32
Paradise California that's about what 3
00:24:34
hours North of San Francisco Northeast
00:24:37
that one was 12.5 billion just to level
00:24:41
set it
00:24:42
uh and now people are talking about and
00:24:45
we'll talk about here today what the
00:24:47
recovery and rebuild effort might look
00:24:49
like California leadership disad across
00:24:53
the
00:24:54
board Gavin I just
00:24:59
disad Gavin new have you had traffic to
00:25:02
dad.com with all of this yeah right now
00:25:04
dad.com is going to be red director to
00:25:06
Gavin or Karen bass I don't know which
00:25:09
one is more disgraceful I mean it's it's
00:25:12
an incredible troll that you just
00:25:13
redirected every week to whoever you're
00:25:15
mad is that
00:25:17
yeah who would be more disgraceful in
00:25:19
this situation Gavin or Karen bass I
00:25:22
think it's got to be k for just being
00:25:23
out of the country I think I think it
00:25:25
would be quite funny if every week you
00:25:27
actually gave an award redirected the
00:25:29
website to the I give it to this week
00:25:31
and before that it was Jake Paul for
00:25:33
that Tyson fight and the
00:25:36
disad but it's the stakes have gone up
00:25:41
Gavin is now doing executive orders one
00:25:44
of them is to make it illegal to lobal
00:25:47
offers to impacted homeowners for the
00:25:49
next three months I don't know what the
00:25:52
point of that is and the other one is to
00:25:55
eliminate the coastal acts review of
00:25:58
permits for the the
00:26:02
houses that are along PCH I
00:26:05
suppose and he wants
00:26:08
to extend key price gouging protections
00:26:12
quote to help make rebuilding more
00:26:14
affordable gouging is defined as raising
00:26:17
the rent or price of other goods and
00:26:19
services more than 10% from the last
00:26:21
marketed
00:26:23
price but it could be as little as 5%
00:26:25
it's just not clear and then LA mayor
00:26:28
bass created a snitch hotline to report
00:26:31
on any kind of price gouging and rents
00:26:34
which we've started to see people are
00:26:36
now naming and shaming Zillow and red
00:26:40
fin listings where they you can see the
00:26:42
previous history of what they were
00:26:44
asking for for a home or for rent and
00:26:46
obviously the free market is
00:26:49
making rental homes double in price
00:26:52
freeberg we talked a bunch about this
00:26:54
and I know Pinkus you've got we had I
00:26:56
don't know if you're comfortable talking
00:26:57
about it but we had a whole conversation
00:26:58
about your getting dragged by the
00:27:01
coastal
00:27:02
Commission in Northern California
00:27:05
freeberg maybe kick us off here on what
00:27:08
your thoughts are on rebuilding this
00:27:11
area how this will happen especially
00:27:15
with what we brought up last week and I
00:27:18
think when a bit viral is your sort of
00:27:20
talk about putting your thumb on the
00:27:21
scale with insurance I mean this is I
00:27:25
think one of the concerning things here
00:27:27
is
00:27:29
the free market not being allowed to
00:27:31
progress previously with insurance and
00:27:33
then now with the rebuild well
00:27:36
California's got at this point price
00:27:39
controls or a mechanism for
00:27:42
controlling the change in price on
00:27:45
insurance on Housing Services and now
00:27:48
they've got this non-solicitation
00:27:51
rule all three I think are very
00:27:54
challenging to I think an appropriate
00:27:58
Market recovery look the insurance issue
00:28:00
is a longer one if you guys want we
00:28:02
could talk about that I've got a couple
00:28:03
notes I can bring up on the history of
00:28:05
how we got to this point but I think
00:28:06
it's going to be the one of the biggest
00:28:08
burdens going forward and it could
00:28:10
actually lead to a pretty significant
00:28:12
effect in long-term housing prices in
00:28:15
California because of the way that the
00:28:17
insurance Market is structured and
00:28:19
regulated in
00:28:21
California but if you want we can talk
00:28:23
about that or up or down what do you
00:28:25
think ultimately you know tldr like do
00:28:28
you think prices are going to go way up
00:28:30
here do you think this is going to take
00:28:32
five or 10 years to rebuild these homes
00:28:34
I mean we've never seen this many
00:28:36
structures go down at this price point
00:28:39
in a constrained area where just
00:28:42
construction is so expensive and hard so
00:28:44
I think the the governor did a good job
00:28:46
suspending the permitting requirements
00:28:47
for the coastal act for affected homes
00:28:50
and the squa review those are very
00:28:53
important I think
00:28:54
suspensions but he also put in place
00:28:57
this executive order for price gouging
00:28:58
and if you pull up the note Nick so he
00:29:01
basically said California penal code
00:29:03
section
00:29:04
396 which prohibits price gouging during
00:29:07
a declared state of emergency will now
00:29:09
extend indefinitely in this region and
00:29:12
in the language in that Penal Code it
00:29:15
says that businesses cannot raise the
00:29:18
price of essential goods and services by
00:29:20
more than 10% above their pre-emergency
00:29:23
price for a specified period and in this
00:29:26
case his executive order is in
00:29:28
definitely so in on an indefinite basis
00:29:30
you cannot raise the price of goods and
00:29:33
services which generally applies to
00:29:35
consumer goods like food and emergency
00:29:37
supplies but it also applies to building
00:29:39
materials and services related to
00:29:41
housing work so if you want to
00:29:45
attract Builders if you want to attract
00:29:48
contractors if you want to attract
00:29:50
electricians and plumbers to go to the
00:29:52
LA area you have to allow the market to
00:29:55
do its job if I'm a plumber operating in
00:29:58
Sacramento or in Phoenix and I'm like
00:30:00
man I could make some money if I go to
00:30:02
La you will see an influx of service
00:30:05
providers and an influx of goods to
00:30:07
support the rebuilding effort in
00:30:08
Southern California that's the way the
00:30:10
free market should work is there's an
00:30:12
opportunity in the market folks show up
00:30:14
they say great I can make money I'm
00:30:16
going to come here and do this work and
00:30:18
as more folks show up they begin to
00:30:21
compete on price and eventually the cost
00:30:23
kind of normalizes and you end up
00:30:25
finding what is now the new fair market
00:30:27
value between the bid and the ask the
00:30:30
people that are saying hey I'll do the
00:30:31
work they're the ask and hey I need
00:30:33
people to do work that's the bid and you
00:30:35
find a price but the benefit of that is
00:30:37
you increase the supply you increase the
00:30:39
supply of goods you increase the supply
00:30:41
of service providers of contractors
00:30:43
there is a home building dir right now
00:30:45
in the United States so this is an
00:30:46
amazing opportunity because they can now
00:30:48
move to LA build homes we can get a
00:30:51
rapid reconstruction effort underway
00:30:53
except the governor just said we can't
00:30:56
pay people 10% higher than what they
00:30:57
were getting paid
00:30:58
right before this happened on an
00:31:00
indefinite basis and then Karen bass
00:31:02
created a hotline you can go to La 311
00:31:05
and report people if they're trying to
00:31:06
charge too much and then the uh you know
00:31:08
the Stacey will come and investigate you
00:31:10
and determine that you're charging too
00:31:12
much I understand that there's a strong
00:31:14
moral imperative and incentive to say we
00:31:16
got to stop price gouging we don't want
00:31:18
people to get hurt but the second order
00:31:20
effect is you're actually hurting the
00:31:21
market and you're hurting the rebuild
00:31:23
effort because you're reducing the
00:31:24
incentive for folks to come in and fill
00:31:26
the void in the market that is necessary
00:31:28
for us to accelerate the development of
00:31:30
15,000 homes in a very short period of
00:31:32
time the alternative now is people are
00:31:34
going to be sitting around and I already
00:31:36
spoke to a couple friends I'm sure you
00:31:37
guys have that are like I try calling
00:31:39
Architects I try calling contractors
00:31:41
people that live in this area that have
00:31:42
been affected I cannot get anyone to
00:31:44
return my call there is not enough
00:31:46
service providers down there you're
00:31:47
going to end up waiting six seven years
00:31:49
to get your home rebuilt now what do you
00:31:51
do you own a a lot you don't have a home
00:31:53
to live in and then there's this other
00:31:56
thing where we can't take unol offers on
00:31:58
the home that was the other executive
00:31:59
order so if you want to pull that one up
00:32:01
the governor said it is illegal to make
00:32:04
an unsolicited offer on a piece of real
00:32:07
estate in one of these affected zip
00:32:08
codes I don't know what that happened in
00:32:12
Hawaii that makes the governor keep
00:32:14
referencing the Hawaii story as if you
00:32:16
know that there were people that were
00:32:18
taken advantage of and we need to
00:32:19
protect the citizens of LA but I'm
00:32:22
pretty sure that having an increase in
00:32:25
the number of offers coming in for Real
00:32:27
Estate
00:32:29
increases maret increases buy behavior
00:32:33
and that will ultimately
00:32:35
drive and that will ultimately make it
00:32:37
easier by having more liquidity for some
00:32:39
of these folks who owned burn down lots
00:32:41
to be able to sell their lot take their
00:32:43
insurance check move to another
00:32:45
neighborhood and go somewhere else
00:32:46
because they're going to have to
00:32:47
otherwise wait six or seven years to
00:32:48
build a
00:32:50
home yeah I think you're a little bit
00:32:53
off the deep end with some of this stuff
00:32:54
because I think you're not being totally
00:32:56
fair in representing what this EO says
00:33:00
and that's coming from me I mean I am
00:33:03
not a Nome fan okay and I think he is
00:33:06
completely and totally
00:33:09
incompetent but I'll just take the other
00:33:11
side of this which is that I read the EO
00:33:15
and I actually think it's somewhat
00:33:18
reasonable and I didn't connect the dots
00:33:22
with the EO and the real estate market
00:33:24
and the reason is that if you read all
00:33:26
of what he said the EO was hypers
00:33:28
specific to unsolicited offers to a very
00:33:32
specific handful of zip codes and it was
00:33:34
time boxed for three months so he said
00:33:38
making any unsolicited offer to an owner
00:33:41
of real estate property located in the
00:33:44
areas encompassed by and he names a
00:33:46
bunch of zip go I think there was like
00:33:48
one two there's like 12 or 13 of them
00:33:51
okay so unsolicited okay yep to to
00:33:54
acquire any interest in real property
00:33:56
for an amount less than the fair market
00:33:59
value of the
00:34:01
property on January 6th so before the
00:34:06
fire started and before the home bur
00:34:08
down and he said that's prohibited for
00:34:10
three months that's it for three months
00:34:13
and the reason I think he said that is
00:34:15
that if you just scope out a little bit
00:34:18
just from this moment in Los Angeles the
00:34:21
problem is that after natural disasters
00:34:23
there is a spike in fraudulent
00:34:26
activities and there are people that try
00:34:29
to take advantage of that situation to
00:34:31
make money so for example after
00:34:32
hurricanes we saw this in Florida people
00:34:35
poses contractors they come in and they
00:34:38
offer inflated prices they offer poor
00:34:40
quality of work and especially when you
00:34:43
sort of deregulate for that moment where
00:34:45
there's less checks there's less folks
00:34:48
involved because you're trying to speed
00:34:50
up the process you can have a bunch of
00:34:53
pressure tactics that work against the
00:34:55
best interests of the person trying to
00:34:57
build on the Wildfire side there was
00:35:00
this crazy thing Nick I'll s you the
00:35:02
link from KTLA that about these folks
00:35:05
called fire Chasers which are
00:35:07
essentially like you know Wildfire
00:35:08
scammers they're ambulance Chasers but
00:35:11
during fir okay so so so my point is
00:35:13
yeah I don't disagree with his
00:35:15
incompetence okay and I think he is
00:35:17
totally out of touch I think there's a
00:35:20
broken cartel that runs the state that's
00:35:22
going to drive this state into just
00:35:25
complete disrepair he was
00:35:28
NE already you can't say a state that
00:35:32
has $322 billion budget is already
00:35:35
bankrupt it's it's teetering on a path
00:35:38
where we won't be able to return and we
00:35:40
can debate that but my point is I just
00:35:43
think despite all of this he's grossly
00:35:45
negligent Karen bass is grossly
00:35:47
negligent the California cartel is
00:35:50
breaking this state but on this specific
00:35:53
narrow thing I kind of will give him his
00:35:55
flowers I think it was like a decent
00:35:57
smart good thing it's narrowly focused
00:36:01
there's a specific window here that's
00:36:03
time boxed so that the worst behaviors
00:36:06
of other people are roughly managed and
00:36:09
mitigated until we can figure out a
00:36:11
better answer you're saying that
00:36:12
unsolicited offers on real estate can
00:36:15
drive fraud what you talked about if
00:36:18
there is a person that is this does not
00:36:21
prevent Somebody by let's talk about
00:36:23
Services separately because he has a
00:36:24
separate EO on services this does not
00:36:26
prevent anybody whose house burned down
00:36:28
from listing his lot you could sell it
00:36:30
for a dollar that's right so it's not
00:36:32
it's I think it's it's not right and
00:36:34
it's inaccurate to say that this is
00:36:37
perturbing and distorting the free
00:36:38
market the idea that you cannot sell
00:36:41
isn't what is in this CEO the idea is
00:36:43
some person shows up out of the blue and
00:36:46
applies a pressure tactic to you when
00:36:48
you're in a very stressful situation
00:36:51
trying to deal with your insurance
00:36:53
brokers trying to figure out where your
00:36:55
kids are going to go to school they're
00:36:56
just making an offer what's the pressure
00:36:58
tactic it's why can't someone make an
00:37:00
offer on your home you want people to B
00:37:01
up David David here's what's going to
00:37:03
happen there are people that in the
00:37:05
middle of all of this stress are trying
00:37:07
to figure out how much money they can
00:37:08
get somebody shows up and underbids what
00:37:12
the true price Discovery could be in a
00:37:15
few months from now you don't know
00:37:17
whether you have to still pay back your
00:37:19
mortgage there will be people it will be
00:37:21
nonzero that will make a mistake and I
00:37:24
think that it's good to try to stop that
00:37:26
it doesn't absorb him from his
00:37:28
incompetence but this I think was
00:37:30
reasonably good what about the services
00:37:32
piece jamat the fact that you can't
00:37:34
increase pricing on goods and services
00:37:35
by more than 10% for an indefinite
00:37:37
period don't you think that that creates
00:37:39
a disincentive for service providers to
00:37:40
come into the state to come and address
00:37:43
the obviously it does yeah this Grand
00:37:46
ideal of the free market will solve
00:37:49
everything isn't necessarily always true
00:37:52
it's great in theory it reads well in a
00:37:54
textbook but real life is messy right
00:37:57
now we are in the messy part and we are
00:37:59
in the most critical part where the
00:38:01
abuses will be the highest I suspect
00:38:03
that in 6 months and 9 months and 12
00:38:05
months the free market will sort all of
00:38:08
these things out so if there's a
00:38:10
governor who can Implement some checks
00:38:14
and balances to protect these folks who
00:38:16
are probably totally dazed like for
00:38:18
example we know some of our friends I've
00:38:20
spoken to them over the last few days
00:38:22
I've spoken to their
00:38:26
wives
00:38:28
H I'll say I'll say it in in a horrible
00:38:31
way one person said this to me and I'll
00:38:33
just just quote him the amount of people
00:38:36
that have reached out to me if you had
00:38:37
asked me two weeks ago why would so many
00:38:39
people reach out with condolences I
00:38:42
would have thought that one of my
00:38:43
children had died that's what he said to
00:38:44
me and it completely struck me with it's
00:38:48
not on that same level but the amount of
00:38:50
emotional turmoil that these families
00:38:53
are going through probably approaches
00:38:54
that I don't think many of those people
00:38:56
are in a condition to make make good
00:38:57
decisions right now so I almost think a
00:38:59
cooling off period actually benefits
00:39:02
everybody it can allow the free market
00:39:05
to work in a few months from now we're
00:39:06
only talking 90 days no no the uh the
00:39:08
services thing is indefinite that's
00:39:10
that's what I think is a little bit
00:39:11
frustrating let me bring Mark in here
00:39:12
Mark you heard both sides of this
00:39:14
debate if you had a lot in the Pacific
00:39:18
Palisades that burned down and people
00:39:20
started making unsolicited offer listen
00:39:22
you're sophisticated I've known you for
00:39:24
20 plus years uh you're very
00:39:26
sophisticated
00:39:28
obviously but do you think that's a
00:39:31
reasonable thing to do to put a
00:39:33
moratorium on people making these low
00:39:35
bit offers and then we'll get to the
00:39:36
construction piece second but you know
00:39:39
what you offers unsolicited offers yes
00:39:41
unsolicited offers yeah what do what do
00:39:43
you think of that I think what what
00:39:45
bothers me about it there's a
00:39:47
presumption and and maybe chim's right
00:39:50
in it you're getting me to think about
00:39:51
it a little more than I was but but I'm
00:39:54
pretty much where freeberg is that we're
00:39:57
we're kind of treating these people like
00:39:59
children cuz we're what we're saying is
00:40:02
that they're not capable of making good
00:40:06
decisions so we need to protect them
00:40:08
from themselves and we're saying so we
00:40:11
don't want you to know that somebody is
00:40:15
willing to pay X dollar for your
00:40:17
property because you might take it and
00:40:19
you might regret later that you took
00:40:22
that is kind of what chamath is saying
00:40:24
no in a in a very narrow window where
00:40:27
you may not have the best and clearest
00:40:30
ability to make the best decision for
00:40:32
you because you're dealing with so many
00:40:33
other crazy issues in your life and you
00:40:36
could still say no you could say no but
00:40:39
you're presuming there's there's one
00:40:41
side that bothers me that feels like
00:40:43
what we've had from the Democratic party
00:40:45
forever which is that this this big wise
00:40:49
Overlord that's going to protect us from
00:40:51
our selves from our worst natures and
00:40:55
then on the other hand you're bringing
00:40:57
up something chat that I I hadn't
00:41:00
thought about that I'm just thinking
00:41:01
more about now which is well maybe
00:41:03
people could be taken advantage of at
00:41:06
the
00:41:07
margin because they're in they feel like
00:41:10
they're in a dire position but but if
00:41:13
they think they're in a dire position
00:41:14
they might really be in a dire position
00:41:16
so they might really well for example
00:41:19
let's just say that you haven't heard
00:41:20
back from the banks that own your
00:41:22
mortgage about whether there's going to
00:41:25
be a moratorium on mortgage payments
00:41:28
and so now you're trying to juggle
00:41:29
paying for an extra rental and this
00:41:31
house while you're trying to figure out
00:41:32
where to put your kids and somebody
00:41:34
shows up and says hey I will buy this
00:41:36
from you I think that there are a lot of
00:41:38
people who would otherwise be able to
00:41:41
make a much more rational decision who
00:41:43
may make a panic decision in that moment
00:41:46
and I think that if you give people a
00:41:47
90-day cooling off period I think it at
00:41:50
least shines a light on whether all of
00:41:54
this governmental and other
00:41:55
infrastructure can actually do something
00:41:57
for these people I do think that there
00:41:59
is a moment at which you can't govern
00:42:01
these things and all I'm suggesting is a
00:42:04
very narrow window of time where
00:42:07
people's feelings of just like
00:42:08
desperation are at their highest I think
00:42:10
that this is a decent thing to do you
00:42:13
know there is some precedent for the
00:42:15
state doing stuff like this you know in
00:42:17
Most states there is a cooling off
00:42:19
period with marriages and divorces you
00:42:22
you have to wait 3 Days To to file
00:42:25
either way to get married or to get
00:42:26
divorced let's talk about the
00:42:28
construction process here freeberg
00:42:29
because I think that's the most
00:42:31
important one because we're going to
00:42:32
rebuild if you don't pay a premium to
00:42:37
get somebody to leave another Market to
00:42:39
come to this one which is what's going
00:42:40
to be required there are simply not
00:42:42
enough construction people in any state
00:42:44
that's right so now you're competing
00:42:45
with another state that's right this
00:42:47
immediately triggered uh the debate and
00:42:51
D I say courage that Travis had around
00:42:53
this issue with surge pricing for Uber
00:42:56
lift and side car and a bunch of other
00:42:58
folks who were kind of virtue signaling
00:43:00
were like we don't ever want to do
00:43:02
search pricing therefore there were
00:43:04
never cars on the road on Friday and
00:43:06
Saturday nights when people needed them
00:43:08
or
00:43:09
during you know inclement weather
00:43:12
snowstorms
00:43:14
or on New Year's Eve and he said if you
00:43:17
want to increase Supply We Believe Uber
00:43:20
should have availability lift took a
00:43:22
different decision we're GNA have no
00:43:23
search pricing and they just simply
00:43:25
weren't available so maybe
00:43:27
what do you think about that piece
00:43:29
Pinkus you
00:43:31
think that the free market and people
00:43:34
should be able to say you know what I'll
00:43:35
pay you time and a half to come here
00:43:37
I'll pay you double time to work
00:43:38
Saturday and Sundays I'll get a couple
00:43:40
of RVs put them in the back if you want
00:43:42
to have some folks live on the
00:43:44
construction site and if you hit these
00:43:46
dates I'll pay you a bonus for hitting
00:43:47
it doesn't seem like any of that would
00:43:50
be wrong to me for somebody who had the
00:43:53
ability to pay an incentive for somebody
00:43:56
to move from another state would be out
00:43:59
of line here what are your thoughts on
00:44:01
that I agree I mean I'm I'm pretty much
00:44:05
just a free market believer and so I
00:44:09
think other than guardrails like chamat
00:44:12
saying and maybe I like the idea of
00:44:14
cooling off periods it kind of makes
00:44:16
sense but outside of that when it comes
00:44:19
to service providers yeah you have the
00:44:20
opposite problem right now which is like
00:44:22
you're saying you need to incentivize a
00:44:25
huge construction for
00:44:27
to come to LA and the cost for them to
00:44:32
get there to find housing themselves is
00:44:36
going to be even higher or the amount of
00:44:39
distance they're going to have to travel
00:44:40
every day so I think I think this could
00:44:43
have real unintended consequences and
00:44:46
just stop the just stop the wheels from
00:44:50
turning on rebuilding all these homes
00:44:53
which just make it way more complex so I
00:44:57
agree J final thoughts on the rebuild
00:45:00
and the free market in that regard yeah
00:45:03
I think this is where the government
00:45:05
ineptitude is at its
00:45:09
worst I think that we need to dismantle
00:45:11
this regulatory state that makes doing
00:45:15
the right thing impossible so
00:45:18
specifically the thing that Nome did was
00:45:22
essentially create
00:45:25
a Time expectation on when things will
00:45:29
get permitted and I think he said it was
00:45:32
like six months the problem is like this
00:45:34
is what just goes to show you how insane
00:45:37
the state has become even if you get a
00:45:40
permit within 6 months and this is where
00:45:43
I do agree with freeberg like getting
00:45:45
service people in and being able to
00:45:46
build something to spec safely is going
00:45:49
to take three four five six years and
00:45:52
it's going to be insane and the example
00:45:56
of the complete incompetence of the
00:45:57
California state government is if you
00:46:00
contrast and compare this with how the
00:46:03
state was able to respond in the North
00:46:05
Bridge earthquake and the crazy thing
00:46:08
which I thought was incredible was after
00:46:10
the 1994 Northridge Earthquake they
00:46:12
rebuilt I 10 right which is like that is
00:46:16
like a crazy
00:46:17
artery in 66 days guys they rebuilt it
00:46:22
not they permitted it not that they were
00:46:24
trying to get the California Coastal
00:46:26
commission to app on it not a Sierra
00:46:28
Club lawsuit about the Upper Land grous
00:46:31
they rebuilt it so you actually know
00:46:34
what's possible in California if if
00:46:36
Tradesmen are allowed to go to work yeah
00:46:39
they can build incredibly complicated
00:46:41
things with safety with speed this is
00:46:44
where Nome I don't think understands how
00:46:46
the real Market works because if you
00:46:49
looked at that example the real question
00:46:51
you should be asking is well what has
00:46:52
changed well Technology's gotten way
00:46:55
better since then the people are more
00:46:58
skilled there are more people to be able
00:47:00
to do more of these jobs and so why does
00:47:02
it only take six months to just get the
00:47:04
permit when in 120 days you could just
00:47:06
rebuild an entire Highway similarly why
00:47:08
aren't we saying that we expect these
00:47:09
homes built in the next three years get
00:47:11
these kids back in their homes and back
00:47:13
in school you know what they did on that
00:47:16
they offered a
00:47:17
$200,000 per day early build bonus on
00:47:20
that program back then so they basically
00:47:22
the the state declared we need this
00:47:25
freeway reopened and here's the date it
00:47:28
was like 144 days and they're like
00:47:29
you'll get a $200,000 bonus for every
00:47:32
day under 144 that you deliver it soever
00:47:35
w show me an incentive I'll show you an
00:47:37
outcome exactly the really interesting
00:47:40
thing here is there are regulations that
00:47:42
this is a unique
00:47:44
opportunity to put in place Nick if you
00:47:47
can pull it up there was a home that
00:47:48
wasn't burned in the Pacific Palisades
00:47:50
and the architect talked about some of
00:47:53
the design decisions
00:47:55
there you know have having Stone scaping
00:47:57
around your home gravel Etc and using
00:48:01
these new materials and not having
00:48:03
overhangs uh which and then having vents
00:48:06
into your uh addict which is what a lot
00:48:08
of homes have and the Embers get into
00:48:10
the addict there's an overhang and
00:48:12
they're not using and they're they're
00:48:14
all wood built you know none of this is
00:48:16
concrete none of it's brick California
00:48:18
is all wood and so they probably should
00:48:21
add some regulations about building
00:48:24
things that are fireproof because if you
00:48:26
had a 100 homes that were all fireproof
00:48:28
and built to withstand this that would
00:48:31
act as a natural break and if you didn't
00:48:33
have as much vegetation so there's
00:48:34
probably a series of things that should
00:48:36
be added here in terms of regulations
00:48:38
while you're getting rid of some of the
00:48:40
ones that are slowing you down right um
00:48:42
but let's pivot over to oh and then
00:48:44
finally like allowing people to park
00:48:47
their mobile homes in these places to
00:48:49
have housing for construction to your
00:48:50
point mark would be super critical and
00:48:52
they block that kind of stuff so when
00:48:54
you need temporary housing in California
00:48:56
you can't do it
00:48:57
by the way I want to I want to hear what
00:48:59
freeberg has to say about insurance but
00:49:01
let me connect the dots between what you
00:49:02
said and what he's about to say there
00:49:05
are three images I just want to show you
00:49:06
guys and to Bubble this up for everybody
00:49:09
that isn't necessarily living in
00:49:11
California and is consumed with what all
00:49:13
of this means there's a bigger Trend
00:49:16
across the country that I think is just
00:49:18
worth putting out there so Nick do you
00:49:20
want to just show the first chart from
00:49:22
FEMA so this is basically a graph
00:49:27
per locality all over the United States
00:49:29
where FEMA tries to assess the disaster
00:49:32
risk for living in a given area and what
00:49:36
you see here is that there's some risk
00:49:39
in living on the Eastern Seaboard and
00:49:41
there's a lot of risk in it's growing
00:49:43
for living on the western Seaboard and
00:49:45
the two most complicated states that
00:49:49
have to deal with this are clearly
00:49:50
Florida and
00:49:52
California so that's one which is this
00:49:54
is a problem that isn't just focused on
00:49:58
this one little area so then if you
00:50:00
double click a little bit further
00:50:01
there's a company called core logic they
00:50:04
publish a lot of real estate data here's
00:50:06
a chart about the western United States
00:50:08
that just double clicks into Wildfire
00:50:11
risk and I was shocked when I saw this
00:50:13
this is first of all most of California
00:50:17
this is like Nevada this is Arizona this
00:50:20
is parts of Texas this is Washington I
00:50:22
didn't even know the fire risk went up
00:50:25
that high but this is essentially a lot
00:50:28
of the western United States and then
00:50:30
the last chart goes through and it
00:50:32
actually does core logic does an
00:50:34
assessment of the value at risk so in
00:50:38
California it's three4 of a trillion
00:50:41
dollars that are at about 1.26 million
00:50:45
homes that are at moderate or great risk
00:50:49
of fires in Colorado it's about 141
00:50:53
billion in Texas it's 88 billion in
00:50:56
Oregon it's 45 billion in Arizona 36
00:50:59
billion the point is that everything you
00:51:03
said
00:51:04
Jason now needs to get Scaled out
00:51:07
meaning there needs to be a national
00:51:09
level conversation this can't be a bunch
00:51:11
of city planners making code and making
00:51:15
laws in a little municipality yeah
00:51:17
because that problem what that shows you
00:51:19
is we have a multi-trillion doll risk to
00:51:24
a lot of people in the Western United
00:51:27
States specifically around this issue
00:51:29
that has to get dealt with by code all
00:51:32
right really interesting in New York
00:51:34
finally New York has put into place
00:51:37
congestion pricing I've been waiting for
00:51:39
this my entire life here's a math this
00:51:43
went into effect January 5th this
00:51:46
congestion pricing concept exists in
00:51:48
London as everybody probably
00:51:50
knows basically if you're below Central
00:51:53
Park which is six stage straight in
00:51:54
Manhattan and you enter between 5:00
00:51:56
a.m. and 900 p.m. you're going to get
00:52:00
you know on your easy pass a charge of
00:52:02
but $9 cheaper than a bacon egg and
00:52:04
cheese in Manhattan these days if you're
00:52:06
going clubbing in Manhattan between 9:00
00:52:08
p.m. and 5:00 a.m. it's just like two
00:52:10
bucks it's going to increase to $12 in
00:52:12
2028 and $15 in 2031 trucks pay more
00:52:16
taxes pay less the results have been
00:52:20
awesome weight times to get on the
00:52:22
island are down 50% across the board
00:52:25
Lincoln Tunnel down 46% Holland Tunnel
00:52:28
down 63% Williamsburg Bridge down 35%
00:52:31
it's just an awesome effort when I live
00:52:34
there man as a resident the traffic was
00:52:37
nuts you can have emergency services
00:52:39
move a lot faster you get rid of noise
00:52:42
pollution you obviously get rid of air
00:52:44
quality pollution for ice engines uh
00:52:47
it's great for cabs great for
00:52:48
pedestrians and great for bike riders
00:52:51
the only people really complaining are
00:52:55
selfish and entitled people who Drive
00:52:56
their cars into Manhattan that's at
00:52:58
least my position on it opponents are
00:53:01
saying it's a money grab for the transit
00:53:04
authority because the money from this
00:53:05
goes to make public transportation
00:53:08
better what do you think Mark you in
00:53:09
favor of
00:53:10
this yeah I think more generally I feel
00:53:15
like since the pandemic what's been on
00:53:18
my mind a lot living still in San
00:53:20
Francisco I wanted to start a social
00:53:22
network called still here uh it's like
00:53:25
oh you still live here me too some way
00:53:28
for us to like come out of our houses
00:53:31
and notice that you're here and I'm here
00:53:33
but we never leave our homes I walk
00:53:35
around this city at my own risk and I
00:53:39
like the cities I feel like cities have
00:53:42
lost the point like they've lost the
00:53:43
plot like why we've kind of we still
00:53:46
live in cities or value them but I feel
00:53:49
like we have to go back to First
00:53:50
principles and think like why did we
00:53:53
move to cities in the first place and
00:53:54
what was the value supposed to be and is
00:53:57
that still the deal we're getting or is
00:53:59
there it have to be a new deal because
00:54:01
we used to live in a city because it was
00:54:03
economic we were closer to our job and
00:54:06
then we lived in a city because there
00:54:08
was a high density of things that we
00:54:11
wanted cultural people restaurants and
00:54:15
the best cities really were the ones
00:54:17
that are fun to walk around and then we
00:54:19
got to a point where it's not safe or
00:54:22
clean to walk around you don't work in
00:54:24
the city anymore and San Francisco
00:54:26
started to feel like this gigantic like
00:54:28
retirement community it's just all these
00:54:31
people who still live here because their
00:54:32
kids are in school maybe or they grew up
00:54:35
here you know a lot of our friends left
00:54:38
went to Austin and other places and we
00:54:41
started I I don't know about chamat but
00:54:43
I think or Dave but I think our family
00:54:45
has a conversation probably twice a year
00:54:48
of should we move why haven't we moved
00:54:50
what's wrong with us and so there's this
00:54:52
questioning going on around cities and I
00:54:54
think it's a good question and I think
00:54:57
cities need to innovate aggressively to
00:55:01
give to be better they have to compete
00:55:03
with the other options again they have
00:55:05
to make it fun to be there fun to work
00:55:08
there I think it's great that Daniel
00:55:10
lurry is mayor of San Francisco and he's
00:55:13
putting smart people around him and
00:55:16
they're trying to rethink first some of
00:55:18
attacking these core problems but also
00:55:21
how do we make San Francisco fun again
00:55:24
so I love things like congestion pricing
00:55:27
I think now is the time to try every new
00:55:30
innovation that you ever thought of and
00:55:33
see what sticks and and figure out like
00:55:37
how do you take this this tax not
00:55:40
literally I mean New York has a big tax
00:55:42
but this tax on all of us whether it is
00:55:46
that you can't walk across this city
00:55:48
that you don't feel safe or that that
00:55:51
the the good side of it being fun to be
00:55:54
in you know is that the the deal is off
00:55:59
and so I think you know and I also what
00:56:02
I'm hoping Daniel lurry does and other
00:56:04
smart Mayors is that they Benchmark and
00:56:07
they say who's doing it really well
00:56:09
around the world whether it's dealing
00:56:10
with homelessness or things like
00:56:13
congestion
00:56:14
pricing who's who's innovating and doing
00:56:16
it well and why aren't we doing it here
00:56:19
I mean I think you got to run these you
00:56:21
got to reinvent these cities and you
00:56:23
know sorry to sound cliche but I think
00:56:25
you got to kind of take a startup
00:56:27
mentality and say you're not going to
00:56:28
live on your incumbency anymore you've
00:56:31
got
00:56:32
to reinvent this and we can't make
00:56:35
companies come back to work you know
00:56:37
come back to the office I mean the
00:56:38
companies can make their employees but
00:56:40
it'd be really nice if the employees
00:56:42
wanted to be there um you know and you
00:56:45
can't make people live in California so
00:56:48
I'm in favor yeah chamath any thoughts
00:56:51
on Mark's point about making cities fun
00:56:54
again and joyful again sounds like a
00:56:56
pretty pretty good
00:56:57
platform I mean I think he's right um
00:56:59
San Francisco sucks it's trash they
00:57:02
never go there yeah it's terrible and
00:57:06
the reason that you don't like to go
00:57:07
there is it's dirty it's disgusting
00:57:10
there's crime there's
00:57:13
Grime everything just sucks there yeah
00:57:16
freeberg your thoughts uh
00:57:19
on the Gotham City that did he visit you
00:57:22
in the Dave did chat ever come to the
00:57:25
Presidio I have come to your office I've
00:57:28
come to Dave's office I've come to I've
00:57:29
gone to Peter's office there but what I
00:57:32
do is I I don't even go through the city
00:57:34
I go all the way around I drive all
00:57:36
through the East Bay up through Berkeley
00:57:38
and I come I'm just kidding no no no I
00:57:41
just think that the city is very poorly
00:57:43
managed and just the quality of many
00:57:46
cities are poorly managed and I think
00:57:48
that there's a common through line in
00:57:50
these poorly managed cities all the
00:57:53
things that you say there's no will to
00:57:55
do there's no will to keep crime at Bay
00:57:59
there's no will to make you know usable
00:58:01
spaces for people there's no will to
00:58:03
invest in the Arts so what do you expect
00:58:06
right there's more money collected by
00:58:07
these cities but there's just just more
00:58:09
total grift corruption and waste I
00:58:12
really like that you got to this will
00:58:13
point because whether we come back to
00:58:15
the coastal commission or not or talk
00:58:18
about California or San Francisco I
00:58:21
don't think it's really about the red
00:58:23
tape I think it's about the willpower of
00:58:26
of the people who are running the tape
00:58:28
and reading the tape you're 100% right
00:58:30
did you see this thing I have to read
00:58:32
this to you because this is really
00:58:34
stunning I sorry Mark keep going but I
00:58:37
you're still th% right you know because
00:58:39
sure okay maybe maybe in one case Gavin
00:58:43
can override the coastal commission but
00:58:46
it doesn't matter if you cut their red
00:58:48
tape by 90% as long as there's any tape
00:58:51
that they can use the people running
00:58:55
both the St there and the people on the
00:58:57
board have stated on their website that
00:59:00
their policy is managed retreat they
00:59:02
drew a new map of the California
00:59:04
coastline if that's their intention
00:59:07
they're going to look for anything they
00:59:09
can to to stop and obstruct you so it's
00:59:12
it's really not like their hands are
00:59:14
tied because there's so much permitting
00:59:17
you're you're right they' made a
00:59:18
decision and the decision in California
00:59:19
and San Francisco specifically was that
00:59:21
we're going to cater to fentol dealers
00:59:24
and junkies and that those people were
00:59:26
going to get a stipend a hotel room and
00:59:29
be allowed to take a super drug on the
00:59:33
streets thousands of people with no
00:59:36
recourse listen I'm pro drug okay here's
00:59:39
I sent you guys a I sentation but not
00:59:42
for fentol and meth these things are
00:59:43
super drugs yeah let's make it less
00:59:45
about San Francisco let's talk about
00:59:47
middle Ohio and let's talk about Ender
00:59:51
Palmer lucky did this really awesome
00:59:54
shout up really awesome interview Nick I
00:59:56
just sent you the link to it he's
00:59:58
building a new Ohio plant but the
01:00:02
question and answer from the interviewer
01:00:05
is exactly what pink has talked about
01:00:07
which is will the interview
01:00:09
says was this the only state that could
01:00:13
guarantee that timeline that you needed
01:00:15
and here's Palmer's answer was this the
01:00:18
only state that could guarantee that
01:00:20
timeline I think that they were the
01:00:21
state that gave us the best shot of
01:00:23
hitting that timeline look we've really
01:00:25
Eng well with jobs Ohio with a lot of
01:00:27
the politicians here uh not just at the
01:00:29
state level but the local level you know
01:00:31
like you said we're hiring 4,000 people
01:00:32
here in direct jobs a lot more jobs than
01:00:35
that in a direct or sorry an indirect
01:00:37
capacity it's the largest single job
01:00:39
creation event in Ohio history it was a
01:00:42
state that told us we have the workforce
01:00:44
we have a million people who are capable
01:00:46
of working in this facility within a
01:00:47
45-minute drive we're willing to work
01:00:49
with you on higher education to help
01:00:51
train people so they can come in and
01:00:53
they can work with you uh our customer
01:00:55
in the the United Air for United States
01:00:57
Air Force obviously it's a huge presence
01:00:59
here in the form of right Patterson Air
01:01:00
Force Base so really all the stars align
01:01:03
to make Ohio a great place for us to do
01:01:05
it and to do it fast and speaking
01:01:06
candidly as someone who is from
01:01:08
California there's some states that are
01:01:10
really good at uh pushing you out and
01:01:13
slowing you down and there's others that
01:01:14
are great at pulling you in and speeding
01:01:16
you up and that's what Ohio was
01:01:19
fantastic yeah states are competing for
01:01:22
elite
01:01:23
companies and there's a willpower that's
01:01:27
that there's an
01:01:28
intention and you know that if they want
01:01:31
to make it happen they'll make it happen
01:01:32
just like Gavin just did right you Gavin
01:01:35
could have theoretically I don't know
01:01:38
signed an executive order to override
01:01:39
the coastal Commission on lot even his
01:01:42
diesel plant like I don't know why he
01:01:44
didn't just force that through but if we
01:01:47
had diesel maybe there'd be more water
01:01:49
to fight the fire now so I think the
01:01:51
important thing is to note that cities
01:01:53
have a right to be what they want to
01:01:57
be you guys might find this surprising
01:02:00
but I'm not necessarily of the belief
01:02:02
that every city should necessarily cater
01:02:05
to progress and acceleration and
01:02:08
enterpris and
01:02:11
industrialization look when you go to
01:02:12
Pino every summer chth you would
01:02:15
probably you know stop going and would
01:02:18
be disappointed if you found out that
01:02:20
they were building a giant glass tower
01:02:22
apartment complex and a giant office
01:02:24
building right by the Portofino Port
01:02:27
like that's just not the character of
01:02:29
what that City wants to be and I do
01:02:31
remember when I first moved to San
01:02:33
Francisco 25 years ago it was it felt
01:02:37
like a smaller European like City it
01:02:39
wasn't overrun with technology companies
01:02:41
at the time and it was a the charm and
01:02:44
the quaint nature and the smaller
01:02:45
buildings of San Francisco that made it
01:02:47
a beautiful fantastic town I think that
01:02:50
part of the challenge of San Francisco
01:02:52
has been this diametrically kind of
01:02:54
opposed Viewpoint of progress from the
01:02:56
technology sector and a desire to keep
01:02:59
San Francisco a small City by the bay
01:03:02
and that that frustration has manifested
01:03:04
with a lot of kind of ugliness over the
01:03:06
the last couple decades in addition to
01:03:07
obviously all the silly stupid policies
01:03:09
that just make no sense whatsoever
01:03:12
they're rooted in people thinking that
01:03:13
this is a good solution in the short
01:03:15
term but it creates extraordinary damage
01:03:16
and harm in the long term separate but I
01:03:19
do think that cities have a right to be
01:03:20
what they want to be and I think that
01:03:22
Dave I think that's just I just want to
01:03:24
interject as a fellow San Franciscan for
01:03:26
a long time um just as long is that
01:03:30
that's the normal tension that's been
01:03:31
here all along and that kind of makes
01:03:33
the city culture great and there's you
01:03:36
want to have this
01:03:38
creative uh Melting Pot here but there's
01:03:41
this other side that I think has come
01:03:44
into play in the last 15 20 years or I
01:03:47
don't 10 15 years which is this
01:03:50
progressivism side which we saw Chessa
01:03:53
you know with and I think it's it's
01:03:55
different virus that's the ugly
01:03:58
silliness I meant I was saying but like
01:04:00
let's put that aside let's put San
01:04:01
Francisco aside I do think that a city
01:04:04
can and should be what it wants to be
01:04:05
does it want to attract and build in
01:04:07
Industry does it want to attract and
01:04:09
build enterprising companies or does it
01:04:12
want to be a small quain town does it
01:04:14
want to stay you know with no h that's a
01:04:18
false trade-off the problem is that
01:04:21
people in government at every level
01:04:23
sells the former doesn't doesn't
01:04:26
actually even give them that nor the
01:04:28
ladder what they give them is a
01:04:30
dysfunctional hellscape instead well
01:04:32
Cino doesn't do that right because it
01:04:34
doesn't make those promises it's not
01:04:36
asking to elect people that are trying
01:04:37
to do it not every City's making that
01:04:40
though why are we lying to everybody and
01:04:42
why are people falling for these lies
01:04:44
over and over and over again there's
01:04:45
there's a moral Clarity in telling the
01:04:47
truth bino doesn't try to do that but I
01:04:49
don't think the point is you're saying
01:04:50
that the cities that that promise that
01:04:52
and don't deliver that your San
01:04:53
Francisco promises it right London
01:04:55
promises it New York promises it these
01:04:58
things are chaotic messes mhm and it's
01:05:01
not the trade-off of oh well Parris has
01:05:03
found a way to stay quaint that was
01:05:04
never on the ballot some person comes up
01:05:07
and says I'm going to spend x billion
01:05:09
dollars a year then another person shows
01:05:11
up is is actually I'm going to spend it
01:05:12
a totally different way they both claim
01:05:15
to have measurements of how it's going
01:05:17
to be great and my point is none of them
01:05:20
are rooted in the real world nobody
01:05:21
knows how to actually run a business all
01:05:23
the money gets wasted and nothing
01:05:25
happens it neither stays quaint nor does
01:05:27
it
01:05:28
Advance if you were uh living in Los
01:05:31
Angeles you had the opportunity to have
01:05:32
Rick Caruso who built so many
01:05:36
amazing experiences and uh shops for the
01:05:41
citizens there and you picked Karen bass
01:05:43
I looked on her Wikipedia page looking
01:05:46
for any kind of operational position she
01:05:49
ever felt it's you want to read her
01:05:51
resume it's tragic I mean just it's
01:05:54
tragic she I would like I said last week
01:05:56
not send her to get my lunch because you
01:05:58
know that order would be totally screwed
01:06:00
up she is so dis so unqualified and you
01:06:03
had this perfect person Rick Caruso who
01:06:07
literally you can't script this he built
01:06:09
the Pacific Palisades
01:06:12
Village when the days before there was
01:06:15
going to be a fire do you know what he
01:06:17
did he hired water trucks to park on
01:06:21
those streets you can find the picture
01:06:23
Nick pull it up and he hired
01:06:25
firefighters and people to protect the
01:06:29
village that he
01:06:30
built Karen bass was in Ghana partying
01:06:35
taking meetings I don't know what the
01:06:37
connection between Los Angeles and their
01:06:39
citizens and what they need to get done
01:06:41
and Ghana after she promised she would
01:06:43
not do this Global you know uh Globe
01:06:46
trotting which she apparently has a
01:06:47
track record of
01:06:49
doing she left and stayed there knowing
01:06:52
this was all coming Rick ruso who you
01:06:55
didn't vote for
01:06:57
mayor he did the right thing vote these
01:07:00
people out recall Karen bass you can do
01:07:03
it we recall Chessa Boudin you remember
01:07:05
on this show David Sachs is a a
01:07:08
republican entrepreneur venture
01:07:11
capitalist good friend of mine I'll
01:07:13
introduce you guys if you haven't met
01:07:14
him he started a recall chesa Boudin
01:07:17
movement I hired a journalist to cover
01:07:20
the victims of crime in San Francisco
01:07:22
Chessa Boudin was out in 18 months you
01:07:24
can recall these people they're
01:07:27
unqualified take action start a recall
01:07:30
they'll tell you oh it's not a good
01:07:31
thing for continuity whatever these
01:07:33
people are not qualified they are not
01:07:35
thinking in your best interest you have
01:07:37
no choice citizens of Los Angeles but to
01:07:40
get these people out immediately every
01:07:42
day they stay in office they are going
01:07:45
to cause more damage to your family your
01:07:48
property and your city we call them now
01:07:52
didn't James Woods post a petition on
01:07:55
change.org that I saw on Twitter it was
01:07:57
already I signed it though I don't live
01:07:59
there and I think it was already over
01:08:01
like 90,000 you know names I mean you
01:08:03
you you have power the people of
01:08:06
California don't understand how much
01:08:07
power they have when Gavin new I just
01:08:09
told people on Twitter jamou every time
01:08:11
Gavin tweets or Karen best Tweets just
01:08:13
reply with the word resign hundreds of
01:08:15
people are doing it now shame these
01:08:17
people into resigning it's a very mature
01:08:19
way for you to affect you you know what
01:08:21
it worked in Brooklyn shame worked I
01:08:24
don't know why people think they have no
01:08:25
power you can literally just go in there
01:08:27
and do things and one of the things you
01:08:29
can do is recall them okay do we have
01:08:31
anything else except your pical left on
01:08:33
the docket all right Tik tok's future is
01:08:35
in question right now the ban is about
01:08:38
to happen unless the pairing company
01:08:40
bite dance divest by January 19th which
01:08:43
is this Sunday Tik Tok will be banned in
01:08:46
America Google and apple are going to be
01:08:48
forced to remove Tik Tok from their app
01:08:50
stores and Oracle Tik tok's cloud
01:08:52
provider has to stop providing hosting
01:08:54
services and cut ties assuming bite
01:08:56
dance doesn't come up with a last minute
01:08:58
deal tick Talk's only hope is the
01:09:01
Supreme Court blocking the law what do
01:09:04
you think Mark do you think it's Chinese
01:09:06
spyware do you think they should be
01:09:07
forced to divest what do you think their
01:09:10
repercussions will be here's what's so
01:09:12
hard for me about this on the one hand
01:09:15
part of it seems so obvious from a both
01:09:18
not just National Security point of view
01:09:20
but also just fairness like it's insane
01:09:25
if you think about it that there's a
01:09:26
Chinese company that's arguing in court
01:09:30
for protections under our Constitution
01:09:34
and freedom of speech when none of our
01:09:38
companies have those kinds of Rights in
01:09:41
China much less the right to even
01:09:42
operate there if they're not majority
01:09:44
controlled or in line like you guys
01:09:47
talked about with censorship or whatever
01:09:49
else so on the one hand it seems like a
01:09:51
no-brainer to me that on this case but
01:09:55
what you're starting to see come up in
01:09:57
the last couple days I'm even hearing it
01:09:59
from one of my daughters who's a major
01:10:02
Tik tocker is the law of unintended
01:10:05
consequences here is that we could see
01:10:08
this band especially if they don't get
01:10:10
to a deal with somebody and then the 170
01:10:14
million Americans many younger Americans
01:10:18
who rely on this all a sudden feel like
01:10:20
this is censoring them and it's taking
01:10:23
away their freedom of expression
01:10:25
question and it could backfire in a lot
01:10:28
of ways and we're already seeing memes
01:10:30
where they're going on to these other
01:10:32
apps like there's this chines book red
01:10:35
book which is even worse right I think
01:10:37
that one is owned by the Chinese
01:10:38
government and so we're driving them
01:10:41
there and so so I'm the best outcome I
01:10:44
think would be forced to divest and sell
01:10:46
to another American company but if that
01:10:51
doesn't happen I I'm kind of nervous
01:10:54
about a a real backlash I'm delighted
01:10:58
jamath that our kids are gonna go out
01:10:59
and play and have friendships and stop
01:11:02
scrolling on T talk what you describe
01:11:04
sound sounds awesome I literally get on
01:11:08
their iPads and phones when I sometimes
01:11:11
allow them to have phones and just
01:11:12
delete the app and then they go get it
01:11:14
back of course of course K are right
01:11:16
around it what do you think Cham what do
01:11:18
you think's GNA happen here I mentioned
01:11:19
this
01:11:20
to president Trump and I and I really
01:11:23
think this is true the reason why there
01:11:25
was so much bipartisan support for the
01:11:27
bill as it worked through Congress is
01:11:29
because I think that they were briefed
01:11:31
on just how severe the security
01:11:34
violations of this app are because I
01:11:36
don't think we've seen anything in
01:11:38
modern history that is that that is this
01:11:41
controversial yet be so almost unanimous
01:11:45
yeah so I think that that's an important
01:11:47
data point there is something happening
01:11:49
in the app that they've been briefed
01:11:51
on that makes them take this posture
01:11:56
and when I listened to the Supreme Court
01:11:58
arguments I didn't hear a very
01:12:00
compelling reason why this ban should be
01:12:03
overturned so I do agree with Mark that
01:12:06
we have to find a suitable
01:12:09
home and I think that we'll probably
01:12:11
find one and I think that it probably
01:12:13
happens under the Trump
01:12:15
presidency and whoever gets their hands
01:12:17
on it gets their hands on an incredible
01:12:20
asset that they will be able to buy
01:12:22
extremely cheaply because there is no
01:12:24
way that is a fair market value here
01:12:27
deal for that asset because whoever is
01:12:29
the buyer is in the total cat bird seat
01:12:31
and in order to get a deal done with the
01:12:32
federal government I think you're just
01:12:35
going to get a basically like a buy at
01:12:36
now price that's very cheap the other
01:12:38
thing that I'll say though on a totally
01:12:39
separate tangent so when I started
01:12:41
hunting around Tik tok's realtime
01:12:44
recommendation algorithm was open source
01:12:46
the learning method yep Nick do you want
01:12:49
to just throw it up here it's called
01:12:50
monolith this is an incredible paper the
01:12:53
cleverness of what these guys have built
01:12:55
cannot be
01:12:57
underestimated and what's incredible is
01:12:59
what they describe in this paper which I
01:13:01
think frankly a lot of social apps would
01:13:04
benefit from
01:13:05
understanding is exactly how they've
01:13:07
built it to essentially not take this
01:13:10
more monolithic training approach for
01:13:11
recommendations but how do you do it in
01:13:13
real time how do you make it
01:13:15
collisionless it's
01:13:17
incredible this paper is a tour to force
01:13:21
and it just makes me realize that
01:13:24
despite the
01:13:27
political maneuvering of this hot potato
01:13:29
there are some folks that have been
01:13:30
working in that app or in you know the
01:13:33
parent company that are truly
01:13:35
technically talented and it's a it's a
01:13:37
bit of a shame that they're going to get
01:13:38
sort of throw the baby out with the bath
01:13:40
water so to speak so people should know
01:13:43
that there's some technological
01:13:45
innovations inside of bike dance and Tik
01:13:47
Tok that are just truly amazing feats of
01:13:50
computer science this is an example it
01:13:53
doesn't though change the fact that I
01:13:54
think that enough of Congress and the
01:13:57
rest of the security apparatus know that
01:13:58
this is a mechanism to spy I think you
01:14:00
both nailed it isn't China saying though
01:14:02
that they're going to if this does get
01:14:05
divested they're going to keep either
01:14:07
bite dance or Chinese government saying
01:14:09
we're not going to give over the
01:14:10
algorithm or are you saying it's open
01:14:12
source it doesn't matter well this was
01:14:14
an example of just sort of like
01:14:15
describing the methodology it's not
01:14:17
functionally open source yet but I think
01:14:19
that open sourcing it doesn't solve the
01:14:21
problem and the reason is so let's just
01:14:23
say that you're Pegasus was able to
01:14:25
reverse engineer or build penetration
01:14:28
attacks into WhatsApp that were
01:14:31
imperceptible to everybody until it
01:14:33
happened to Jeff Bezos to other people
01:14:35
right where you get these state
01:14:37
sponsored attacks on your
01:14:39
phone and all of a sudden you're dealing
01:14:41
with this attack Vector that then you
01:14:45
call the FBI and they take your phone
01:14:47
and they help you deal with it's
01:14:48
happened to a bunch of people that's
01:14:50
happened to me
01:14:52
twice so
01:14:55
the fact that these things can happen
01:14:57
and then the attack vectors get
01:14:59
incrementally more and more
01:15:00
sophisticated it used to be that there
01:15:02
was a PDF payload then there can just be
01:15:05
an image payload now it's any payload
01:15:08
right and you don't even have to click
01:15:09
to open it and all of a sudden they just
01:15:11
roots your phone so these are extremely
01:15:14
sophisticated mechanisms that are
01:15:17
enabled by a very few very talented
01:15:19
people talented I'll put in
01:15:21
quotes but when those talented people
01:15:23
work on the wrong side you have to act
01:15:25
so open sourcing it won't solve this
01:15:27
these these exploits are known to a few
01:15:31
and I think that if it's known to the
01:15:33
NSA this is probably what was disclosed
01:15:35
to folks under confidentiality that
01:15:37
caused them to get to this conclusion I
01:15:38
think people just need to wake up and
01:15:40
realize the Chinese government does not
01:15:42
have Americans best interest at hard I
01:15:44
mean the there there is no concept of
01:15:47
reciprocity as you mentioned Mark that's
01:15:50
the number one reason to do this number
01:15:52
two what you pointed out your mouth with
01:15:53
security and if you think about the two
01:15:55
biggest imports from China right now
01:15:58
it's Fentanyl and Tik Tock here's what I
01:16:00
will say want to make us addicted they
01:16:02
want to impact our society they want to
01:16:05
divide us this is an a massive scops
01:16:09
that's going on it is a scops and it is
01:16:11
a spyware and it's been proven they
01:16:13
spied on journalists these are Bad
01:16:15
actors it has to go I was super excited
01:16:17
when I saw that there was the potential
01:16:20
that X would take over Tik Tok and the
01:16:23
reason I say that is I do think that if
01:16:26
you can take the video content of Tik
01:16:30
Tok and the graph of
01:16:33
creators but have a different app and a
01:16:36
different substrate be the delivery
01:16:38
mechanism where you know that it's much
01:16:39
safer and it's governed by an American
01:16:42
that to me would be the compromise so I
01:16:45
think the app should go away but if you
01:16:48
can somehow give creators a path to sort
01:16:50
of like restart their content creating
01:16:53
capabilities on X I think that that's
01:16:55
actually a pretty good one you guys
01:16:56
notice in the app freeberg that the left
01:16:59
hand tab um because you have following
01:17:01
shop and for you they added a leftand
01:17:04
tab all the way over that stem and it's
01:17:07
just science technology engineering and
01:17:09
math content I've not noticed that yeah
01:17:13
take a look I don't know if it's just
01:17:14
mine and they're microt targeting me
01:17:15
because they know I'm such a fan of stem
01:17:17
but I think it's for everybody any
01:17:20
thoughts uh Dave as we wrap on the Tik
01:17:22
Tok seems like they're going to strike
01:17:25
deal Chuck Schumer today is calling for
01:17:26
a delay in the ban I'm sure by the time
01:17:29
this episode airs something will have
01:17:30
been worked out to create some space for
01:17:32
them to get a deal done but I think they
01:17:34
want to get a deal done and keep Tick
01:17:35
Tock active in the US seems like both
01:17:37
the Dems and the Republicans are pushing
01:17:39
for it so this kind of also leads to
01:17:41
what I think will
01:17:43
be the grand deal with China which I
01:17:46
think will happen in the first six
01:17:47
months of the Trump Administration I'm
01:17:48
obviously speculating but it feels like
01:17:51
there's going to be some workout here
01:17:54
China is like in a lot of economic
01:17:57
distress I don't know if you guys have
01:17:58
followed much on the stories of the
01:18:00
deflationary challenges that China is
01:18:03
dealing with Chinese bonds are trading
01:18:04
at a below 2% yield now which is kind of
01:18:08
unprecedented and there's this real
01:18:10
concern that China is in a very
01:18:12
significant economic deflationary spiral
01:18:14
so they're in a very weakened position
01:18:16
economically at the moment the United
01:18:18
States seems to be in a position of
01:18:21
strength and I would imagine just given
01:18:24
the rhetoric
01:18:25
that this Administration may try to work
01:18:27
out again some deal that's going to
01:18:29
provide access to the Chinese market in
01:18:31
exchange for the US minimizing the
01:18:33
Tariff effect on Chinese um importers to
01:18:35
the US so there could be I think
01:18:38
something you know that eases the the
01:18:41
tension with China and creates you know
01:18:43
Mutual economic value in the first six
01:18:47
months of the administration we'll see I
01:18:49
mean it's a great Point Trump is a great
01:18:51
negotiator it's probably his greatest
01:18:52
strength and he's great at saber
01:18:53
rattling and we're strong they're weak
01:18:56
right now a grand deal could be an
01:18:58
awesome outcome I think this was my one
01:19:00
of my this was my contrarian prediction
01:19:02
I think um oh no this was my stock this
01:19:04
was my stock prediction yeah this was
01:19:05
like my I picked the Chinese tech stocks
01:19:07
yeah same I I've been loading up on
01:19:11
Alibaba a couple Chinese names with the
01:19:15
same bet hey guys here's a chart for
01:19:17
you companies are not hiring as many
01:19:21
mbas this is a recent spike in in
01:19:24
unemployment among mbas from Top
01:19:27
Business Schools like Harvard MIT and
01:19:30
Stanford I'm not sure I think Pinkus did
01:19:32
you go to Harvard
01:19:34
FIA guilty guilty so and you've also
01:19:39
stopped working so you're represented
01:19:40
here on the chart yeah you still have a
01:19:42
job I think you still work what what are
01:19:45
your thoughts on on this are NB out of
01:19:47
Vogue are they opting out what's your
01:19:49
theory here well so yes I went there I I
01:19:52
would say that
01:19:55
that my all the learning that's helped
01:19:58
me in my career
01:20:00
started later after I got out my first
01:20:03
product management job was really when I
01:20:05
started learning things that are useful
01:20:08
to me today I think being there I
01:20:11
learned a lot about like how to sell to
01:20:12
Corporate America and some how do they
01:20:15
think kind of things and then I've gone
01:20:19
back to HBS for decades trying to
01:20:21
recruit from there and in the beginning
01:20:24
they would tell me the kids would when I
01:20:26
had support.com and it was going to go
01:20:28
public they said I'd have to be a vice
01:20:30
president and own 3% of the company to
01:20:32
take a job with a startup like you and
01:20:34
this was just before the company went
01:20:36
public there was a little bit of a
01:20:38
Renaissance period where some HBS people
01:20:40
were excited to join Zinga probably
01:20:42
because they thought it was going public
01:20:44
but they were a little more risk on at
01:20:45
that point and now
01:20:48
everyone's open to jobs my take is that
01:20:52
there's this fundamental imbalance that
01:20:56
people go and get an MBA because they're
01:20:59
drisking their career you go to HBS or
01:21:02
Stamford and you're guaranteed this High
01:21:05
salary and this kind of great job for
01:21:08
life so the reason to go there is to
01:21:11
take the risk off that's in fundamental
01:21:15
opposition to where we are in our
01:21:17
economy in my opinion today or where the
01:21:19
most interesting sectors are those kinds
01:21:21
of jobs have dried up and the kinds of
01:21:24
jobs that I think should be interesting
01:21:27
to mbas are more like go find a
01:21:31
ycombinator company and join a founding
01:21:33
team as the business person or whatever
01:21:37
and these people are smart and qualified
01:21:39
but there's this mismatch that they are
01:21:42
fundamentally risk averse and so they're
01:21:44
not so when it says they haven't found
01:21:47
jobs part of it is I think they're going
01:21:50
they're going to have to fall further or
01:21:52
this might happen so that a part of it
01:21:55
they have maybe debt or they have to pay
01:21:57
back this expensive degree but I think
01:22:00
that they've got to get to a point like
01:22:02
I was when I started my first company
01:22:04
preloader I happily had very little to
01:22:06
no opportunity cost because I had
01:22:08
torched my career by that point torched
01:22:10
my resume I was fired or asked to leave
01:22:14
every job and so there was kind of no
01:22:16
turning back so uh can you imagine being
01:22:20
Mark P's boss I mean that's almost as
01:22:22
hard as being trats
01:22:24
yeah I always say I'm a great team
01:22:26
player as long as I'm running the team
01:22:28
so right great quarterback yeah but yeah
01:22:31
so I had no opportunity cost when I
01:22:34
started my first company which looked
01:22:36
like it didn't have a chance in hell you
01:22:38
know of ever making it so you probably
01:22:40
thought so too then about my company but
01:22:43
so now the question is maybe what's
01:22:45
going to happen is we're g to get a new
01:22:47
equilibrium where these the
01:22:49
opportunities for these people start to
01:22:50
come down the guaranteed opportunities
01:22:53
and a good thing cons firms right they
01:22:55
all go to McKenzie Boston Consulting
01:22:57
Group whatever even I just the class I
01:22:59
taught on Monday at Stanford they said
01:23:02
everyone wants a job at meta or Google
01:23:04
and that's the get-rich quick place and
01:23:07
it's I don't even think that's
01:23:08
necessarily true anymore and they can't
01:23:10
get those jobs because those companies
01:23:12
are now trying to get rid of middle
01:23:14
management so those jobs have dried up
01:23:17
you know part of what's in this data
01:23:19
probably also is a lot of these people
01:23:22
aren't taking jobs they're not finding
01:23:25
jobs that meet this High expectation for
01:23:28
right pay and opportunity so I think
01:23:30
it's a I think it's a good thing it also
01:23:33
probably is going to reduce the demand
01:23:35
to go into these MBA programs because if
01:23:38
you're thinking well that's not going to
01:23:40
be my riskof trade and I'm I'm not going
01:23:43
to be guaranteed 100% so why go in the
01:23:45
first place and I would advise people
01:23:48
today you know to depending on what
01:23:50
industry I'm biased but I'd say go get a
01:23:53
product management job some where and
01:23:55
make enough that you can afford to live
01:23:57
on it and that's going to be the
01:23:59
beginning of Learning doing these chth
01:24:02
what what are these things called when
01:24:03
these NB graduate they raise a bunch of
01:24:05
money to go buy some real business SE
01:24:07
fun yeah that's that's not happening
01:24:09
anymore they yeah that was like the
01:24:11
thing none of them made money none of
01:24:12
them made money turns out these NBAs
01:24:14
don't know what they're doing oh yeah so
01:24:16
when they take over the business run by
01:24:17
a family and some matriarch or patriarch
01:24:20
for 50 years to get it to 25 million
01:24:24
there's that there's that one deal out
01:24:25
of Stanford GSB the guy founded assurion
01:24:29
which is like you know 10 B it's
01:24:31
billions that guy would have founded
01:24:33
that company outside of Stanford he
01:24:35
could have gone to timbuk 2.com
01:24:37
University disad State and he would have
01:24:39
been
01:24:41
fine that speaks that speaks to more
01:24:44
about the cleverness of that one
01:24:45
individual not the 99,000 other sh deals
01:24:48
that been let me say something that
01:24:49
builds on what Pinkus was saying which
01:24:52
is I think that this is a interesting
01:24:54
window into the future of AI in the
01:24:57
sense that I think what companies are
01:25:00
internalizing slowly that the first
01:25:03
place that AI disintermediate is
01:25:06
actually middle management you thought
01:25:08
that it was the customer support person
01:25:11
maybe you thought it was the engineer
01:25:13
maybe you thought it was the designer
01:25:14
maybe you thought it was the product
01:25:15
manager I think those are less true I
01:25:18
think it's the middle manager it's the
01:25:20
functionary that basically is acting as
01:25:24
as essentially
01:25:25
cartilage inside of this
01:25:27
organization has less and less to do in
01:25:31
a place where AI enabled systems are
01:25:34
making a lot of decisions on behalf of
01:25:38
businesses and if you take a step back
01:25:40
how did that evolve well it started
01:25:43
because of what I mentioned a couple
01:25:45
weeks ago what the software industrial
01:25:48
complex will really be known for after
01:25:50
it is dismantled and
01:25:52
gone is that it
01:25:55
created all of these really
01:25:57
dysfunctional or charts in a company
01:26:01
meaning when you are a system of record
01:26:03
that sells something let's make it up
01:26:06
hey I'm the best general ledger
01:26:08
software okay and a CEO says great
01:26:11
Implement that and then all of a sudden
01:26:13
it's like well you're going to need a
01:26:15
CFO okay but then the CFO comes to you
01:26:17
and says well you actually need ahead of
01:26:19
fpna ahead of this ahead of that ahead
01:26:22
of the other thing then the CEO says
01:26:24
okay then those people hire and what
01:26:26
happens is the software sprawl is really
01:26:29
what created those jobs somebody else
01:26:31
says here's a customer relationship
01:26:33
management thing okay great so then you
01:26:36
hire a CMO and a cro those people build
01:26:39
infrastructure so my premise about this
01:26:43
is if you look inside of any or chart of
01:26:45
any company you can map those jobs to
01:26:49
some clunky old piece of software that
01:26:51
was sold to them maybe it was 10 years
01:26:53
ago maybe it was 20 years ago but that's
01:26:56
why orgs are this bulky and now when you
01:26:59
have all of these new nextg businesses
01:27:02
that are ripping all of that software
01:27:03
out the middle management layers that
01:27:06
used to manage that software are no
01:27:07
longer necessary that's why you're not
01:27:09
hiring mbas and I think that this trend
01:27:11
is only going to grow so I don't think
01:27:14
that this is a commentary on the people
01:27:16
the people are probably quite smart but
01:27:19
I do think that this is a warning sign
01:27:20
that people should not go and pursue
01:27:22
these degrees because I think as P said
01:27:25
you're not taking the trade of least
01:27:27
volatility you're actually taking on a
01:27:29
lot more volatility than you probably
01:27:30
thought you shouldn't be taking on by
01:27:33
going to a place like Harvard or
01:27:34
Stanford freeberg any thoughts as we
01:27:36
wrap here about this NBA chart the
01:27:39
collapse of the MBA program could be the
01:27:41
beginning of the unwinding of the um
01:27:44
higher education
01:27:46
Market why s
01:27:49
more I think this is the easiest one to
01:27:52
discard first in an age of AI and
01:27:56
Automation and self-learning and I think
01:28:00
that I I mean I've been thinking a lot
01:28:02
about I've I've have young kids right so
01:28:05
my kid my oldest kid is seven years old
01:28:08
I had to think about that for a sec um
01:28:10
so many kids now and um isn't it great
01:28:14
by the way I go through this all I don't
01:28:16
know I have to go through I have to feel
01:28:17
like what's my kids birthday Jam has a
01:28:19
busload of children when you have when
01:28:20
you have I just had a fifth think five
01:28:24
and you're at four days no I have five I
01:28:27
can't I have to really think about all
01:28:28
the birthdays fourth on the way but yeah
01:28:30
I would say I I think a lot about
01:28:33
whether or not it makes sense for my
01:28:35
kids to go to undergrad and I think like
01:28:38
about going to classes as an undergrad I
01:28:40
certainly there's the social experience
01:28:42
and I I learned a lot in you know kind
01:28:45
of working at a lab when I was there and
01:28:47
doing other stuff but those were like on
01:28:49
the job experiences I do think that the
01:28:52
social experience and
01:28:54
practical experience can be gotten
01:28:57
outside of the college infrastructure
01:29:00
this Ed educational infrastructure oh I
01:29:03
I cannot tell you guys how much time I I
01:29:05
just had a great idea I just had the
01:29:07
best idea ever the Allin MBA let's start
01:29:10
our own NBA I don't think I think that's
01:29:12
the whole point is people should get
01:29:14
back to kind of an apprenticeship type
01:29:16
model or a self-learning model
01:29:17
everyone's got their own personal tutor
01:29:19
now that's what I think people aren't
01:29:20
realizing is anything you want to learn
01:29:23
with
01:29:25
have you guys heard about what Johnny I
01:29:26
has done with his kids I'm pretty sure
01:29:29
they skip college and they just went to
01:29:32
work directly with him and his design
01:29:35
firm exactly and like I'm taking him out
01:29:37
to lunch because I want to interview him
01:29:38
about it I think
01:29:41
exactly by the way your daughters and my
01:29:43
daughters want to start a podcast
01:29:45
together Pinkus do you know what they
01:29:47
want to name it oh no I don't I don't
01:29:50
know if I should say it they I don't
01:29:52
know I didn't hear the name I think Jam
01:29:54
daughters in on this as well I think it
01:29:56
was another friend's child who came up
01:29:59
with the name they wanted to call it the
01:30:00
nepo
01:30:03
Pod Jamal's got a couple kid I'm here
01:30:06
for it no I think freeberg nailed it on
01:30:09
this one because I just had arouche
01:30:12
Selvin who's the pm at Google doing deep
01:30:15
research on this week in startups
01:30:17
yesterday and this product is nuts and
01:30:21
they designed it to basically be one of
01:30:23
these like million doll or $5 million
01:30:25
reports you pay for from these
01:30:27
consulting firms that MBA is right and
01:30:30
it does a better job it's more accurate
01:30:34
it's done in 5 to 10 minutes this thing
01:30:36
fires off have you used deep research
01:30:38
yet
01:30:39
Mark no I keep hearing you talking about
01:30:42
it and I'm such an idiot about this
01:30:44
stuff it's on the desktop only you can't
01:30:46
use the mobile and then Gemini how to
01:30:49
use it and it's only and you have to pay
01:30:52
20 bucks for it and then grock 2.0 is
01:30:54
doing something similar when you put
01:30:55
your query in it decides like all the
01:30:57
second level queries that would be asked
01:31:00
then it checks its work so it's firing
01:31:03
off a spider that goes and crawls 150
01:31:06
pages in real time then it asks
01:31:08
questions about the data then it says
01:31:09
what's missing from this so all the
01:31:11
questions you would get from your
01:31:12
manager if you were working at Boston
01:31:14
Consultant Group where they tell some
01:31:16
young MBA hey you missed this you miss
01:31:18
this can you double check this can you
01:31:20
find double click on this it goes and
01:31:22
does those followup question questions
01:31:25
so and now you can do a Cron job where
01:31:27
you can say take my research and every
01:31:30
week do a update on it and fill in
01:31:33
information and tell me the differences
01:31:35
so instead of just buying a Boston
01:31:36
Consulting or Mackenzie or whatever
01:31:38
report you build it and then have it
01:31:42
auto and the Deep research is coming out
01:31:43
this it's going to automatically refresh
01:31:45
it in your Google Docs and then update
01:31:47
you on what's been
01:31:48
changed and so and grock is doing it as
01:31:51
well except grock has all the tweets so
01:31:53
when you grock now did you see now at
01:31:55
the top of the page it says and I think
01:31:57
it's only in the grock app uh the
01:31:59
dedicated app they just launched last
01:32:00
week it shows you all the tweets and it
01:32:03
shows you all the web pages that it
01:32:05
indexed for that query so this is like
01:32:09
putting somebody on a week-long research
01:32:11
project and like I said it takes between
01:32:13
5 and 10 minutes to do this and it costs
01:32:15
a massive amount of server capacity to
01:32:18
do these real time you know two 300
01:32:20
queries are occurring behind your one
01:32:23
it's nuts I don't know if you guys have
01:32:25
been using advanced voice on chat GPT
01:32:28
much or do you guys any the voice and So
01:32:31
lately anytime I kind of have come
01:32:32
across an interesting topic I end up
01:32:35
finding that I just talk to chat GPT for
01:32:37
like an hour or two and I'll be like in
01:32:39
my car like when I'm driving to work or
01:32:41
going to a meeting or I go for like a
01:32:44
walk down to the coffee shop I'm like
01:32:47
okay so tell me about like what happened
01:32:49
during the Ice Age with respect to how
01:32:51
quickly sea levels receded and I start
01:32:54
to gather and like it's it's basically
01:32:56
like your own personal tutor I finally
01:32:58
have a best friend
01:33:00
Mark and I think that basically you end
01:33:03
up seeing a future where if people are
01:33:07
put into almost like the real world
01:33:09
becomes the lab environment that is
01:33:11
created in a very short window and small
01:33:14
amount of space in a college environment
01:33:16
where you're like in some like
01:33:18
applied scape that applied scape
01:33:22
basically becomes the real world and
01:33:24
you've got your college in your ear
01:33:26
you've basically got your tutors your
01:33:27
educational experience your capabilities
01:33:29
that you're learning and you learn more
01:33:31
in real time and I think that that's
01:33:33
what AI is going to take us to which is
01:33:35
basically going to destroy much of the
01:33:36
value of higher education and I think
01:33:38
that this MBA piece is probably just the
01:33:40
first step of many that's going to
01:33:43
ultimately erode the value ofation did
01:33:46
you guys see that Fleshlight that can
01:33:48
actually be synced to a video you're
01:33:50
watching at CES that's pretty crazy no
01:33:55
can we go to the UFOs instead of sex
01:33:57
toys we get it show us the video show us
01:34:00
the
01:34:01
video it's also did you get one of
01:34:04
course he's about to show us from his
01:34:06
hidden folder I saw it on X it was like
01:34:09
a it was like a summary of like the top
01:34:11
10 things from CES and it was a
01:34:14
flashlight that that would gyate based
01:34:17
on the actual contortions in the videos
01:34:20
which one's guest rooms tonight I'm a
01:34:22
little nervous f interesting Pinkus you
01:34:24
you get to see two different things here
01:34:26
when AI comes up as a topic freeberg
01:34:29
finally has a best friend and chth
01:34:31
finally has a lover who will do exactly
01:34:33
what he tells it to it's absolutely
01:34:36
perfect so Mark lately we've been
01:34:38
talking we've been talking to all the
01:34:40
guests about UFOs and UAP welcome to
01:34:42
conspiracy you have a point of view on
01:34:45
UFO UAP phenomena I
01:34:49
do and I guess everyone's everyone else
01:34:52
say too so I won't be that weird an
01:34:54
outlier so first of all just say I don't
01:34:57
believe in uaps UFOs and I don't not
01:35:00
believe in them and I'm just curious
01:35:03
about it and I've I've had this theory
01:35:05
that something is going to happen that
01:35:07
we're going to break our current
01:35:10
understanding of physics theory and our
01:35:12
our physics laws and so I've been
01:35:14
looking for that moment and one of those
01:35:17
is around the uaps so I've been more and
01:35:20
more Curious and digging more and more
01:35:23
and I started working with a friend who
01:35:25
made the movie Icarus on the idea of
01:35:28
like a Netflix docu series I thought it
01:35:30
should be funny and have somebody like a
01:35:33
Larry David kind of character narrating
01:35:35
it but he said maybe maybe he came back
01:35:38
to me he he's making a documentary about
01:35:40
the fentol crisis and how it China
01:35:43
documented how China has dumped it here
01:35:46
and he said you've got to meet with me
01:35:48
and this guy I came while he was working
01:35:51
on that he was interviewing a former DOD
01:35:53
contractor who had worked for them for
01:35:56
decades and said you know I've got a lot
01:35:58
on fentol but I have this whole other
01:36:00
thing to show you about these uaps and
01:36:04
he he'll just tell you his claim his
01:36:06
claim so they came and met with me and
01:36:09
we had to meet outside and put our
01:36:11
phones in Fairway bags faay bags faay
01:36:14
bags so so uh it was a good setup if
01:36:18
nothing else and he said he claimed that
01:36:21
in doing running these War games for the
01:36:25
defense department it inadvertently was
01:36:28
summoning these uaps these drones and he
01:36:32
had tons and tons of video of it and
01:36:34
classified them I'm just telling you
01:36:36
what he told me let me guess the Drone
01:36:38
all the Drone videos look up they were
01:36:40
shot on an mm 1968 camera wait wait wait
01:36:44
hold on hold on Jason Mark just explain
01:36:45
this so so the United States is is
01:36:49
simulating war games yeah and what is it
01:36:52
doing exactly that's causing these
01:36:54
drones to show up he did not tell me
01:36:57
what were the the games what were the
01:37:00
exact triggers that but he said
01:37:03
different things would trigger a
01:37:05
different one and he classified them and
01:37:08
he said some of them were aggressive
01:37:10
from an electronics and commun would
01:37:13
take out electronics and Communications
01:37:15
wow and he so he was interested and my
01:37:19
friend was interested in saying okay can
01:37:21
you put up a couple people um a million
01:37:25
and a half dollars to recreate this and
01:37:27
film this and I thought about it I even
01:37:32
had him go meet with
01:37:33
Reed and and didn't move quickly and
01:37:36
then he went dark on us and stopped
01:37:40
responding and then some friends of mine
01:37:43
went to a gathering at and what they it
01:37:49
was on multiple things related to this
01:37:51
and they said that this guy was there
01:37:53
and that he summoned one of these they
01:37:56
kind of said it looked like a large
01:37:58
drone and my friends showed me some
01:38:01
pictures that they took which were
01:38:02
really it was at night they were really
01:38:03
gra come on stop come on stop I'm not
01:38:06
making this up I'm just telling you just
01:38:08
one piece of advice with this
01:38:09
documentary film stuff you know how to
01:38:11
make a hundred million dollar in
01:38:12
documentary films right Pinkus yes start
01:38:15
with a billion start with a billion
01:38:17
you're the mark in all of this you're
01:38:19
just a mark this guy needs a million
01:38:21
dollars to finish his house or something
01:38:23
a canyon fair and you're the way to do
01:38:26
it I didn't the Mark I didn't find it
01:38:29
okay good so all I'm saying is that I
01:38:32
think that there's a possibility that
01:38:34
there is some kind of drone that's
01:38:37
getting that that is showing up and and
01:38:41
I'm not saying it's even from you know
01:38:43
from nonhuman making I believe it I
01:38:46
believe it I am looking I'll be honest
01:38:48
because I am looking for a reason to
01:38:50
believe in this I I'll be honest like I
01:38:52
know my bias
01:38:54
I am very sympathetic when I hear these
01:38:56
stories I listen way too long you know
01:39:00
to the podcast on this stuff I watch are
01:39:02
you donating to Alex Jones no but are
01:39:05
you a subscriber no but I I okay how
01:39:08
about
01:39:09
this are we convinced that there has
01:39:12
been absolutely
01:39:14
zero unidentified object inside some
01:39:19
Vault Buri deep somewhere
01:39:23
either the us or national state
01:39:25
government somewhere are we guaranteed
01:39:27
that the odds of that are zero and I say
01:39:30
no it's not let's do our fir uh what is
01:39:33
it fmy
01:39:34
paradox freeberg fmy paradox why aren't
01:39:37
the if there if there are aliens why
01:39:39
haven't we seen them quick around the
01:39:42
I'm not I'm not saying done my point on
01:39:43
this there is a UAP that is that has
01:39:46
been unidentified that is sitting inside
01:39:48
some Vault somewhere in in a state
01:39:50
government in the world so your position
01:39:53
is the aliens have come no stop saying
01:39:57
you but you you you you make the whole
01:39:59
thing seem ridiculous when you say
01:40:00
aliens I'm not saying that I'm saying
01:40:02
okay visitors from another planet no
01:40:04
stop with the visitors just let's just
01:40:06
put it this way a
01:40:08
vehicle that doesn't have to have
01:40:10
anything inside it a vehicle could be
01:40:12
autonomous and
01:40:13
unmanned okay is are the odds exactly
01:40:16
zero
01:40:19
no but with billions of planets it would
01:40:23
you know logic would make you think that
01:40:25
one has come already right that's with
01:40:28
there billions of inhabitable planets
01:40:30
and species out there there must have
01:40:32
somebody must be ahead of us but the
01:40:34
other conclusion of ferm's paradox is we
01:40:37
statistically are the highest a society
01:40:40
has ever gotten and we have yet to send
01:40:44
our probes out to the rest of the
01:40:45
universe although we have send probes
01:40:47
freeberg to Uranus all right everybody
01:40:51
thanks for tuning in this is all
01:40:53
disad
01:40:57
disad I need I need a I need
01:41:00
um young Spielberg to make us a a jingle
01:41:03
for disad
01:41:05
a.com Mark Pinkus you're amazing thank
01:41:08
you for fitting right in with your
01:41:10
besties uh and top bro on the baby
01:41:13
congrats congrat looking forward to
01:41:15
seeing you this weekend all right and we
01:41:17
will see oh and by the way just
01:41:18
programming note we're all going to be
01:41:21
at at the inauguration various parties
01:41:23
uh this weekend and we will be doing
01:41:26
some live episodes of the Allin podcast
01:41:29
probably on Sunday Monday time frame and
01:41:31
we will see you on the live stream go to
01:41:35
youtube.com subscribe to the Allin
01:41:37
podcast put on the notifications the
01:41:38
bell and then follow us on x.com the
01:41:41
Allin podcast and then again subscribe
01:41:44
and then just turn on notifications
01:41:45
you'll get a notification when we go
01:41:47
live on those two platforms we'll see
01:41:49
you all next time byebye love you boys
01:41:51
byebye
01:41:53
will let your winners
01:41:55
ride
01:42:00
Rainman we open sourced it to the fans
01:42:02
and they've just gone crazy with it love
01:42:05
queen
01:42:06
[Music]
01:42:12
of
01:42:14
[Music]
01:42:15
Besties my dog Tak
01:42:18
driveways man oh man myit
01:42:23
we should all just get a room and just
01:42:25
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all
01:42:27
this useless it's like this like sexual
01:42:28
tension that they just need to release
01:42:36
somehow we need to get
01:42:38
merch
01:42:41
[Music]
01:42:45
all I'm going
01:42:48
[Music]
