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does anybody have any thoughts on
this i mean i think it's incredible um so does fredberg's dog
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hey everybody hey everybody welcome to another
episode of the all-in podcast it's been a week
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it's been a minute with us today of course
the queen of quinoa david friedberg and the
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rain man himself calling in from a nondescript
mansion in one of 17 cities the rain man himself
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david sacks and cackling like a dictator who
got his two billy back and he's back in the game
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chem off paulie hapatia is he going to get a car with doors that
go like this doors that go like this
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let's talk a little bit about the vaccine biden
says everybody who's an adult is qualified by
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may 1st he's instructed the states to do
that we are now hitting uh 2.x million a day
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we had a 3 million shot day i believe friedberg
and obviously the 1.9 billion dollar covid slash
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uh everybody gets a big slice uh bill got passed
1.9 trillion sorry that's what i said 1.9 trillion
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no somebody put 1.9 billion on the number yes
1.9 trillion uh 1.9 billion is what the covid uh
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nft went for the nft went for women said
in the past a trillion here trillion there
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soon enough it's real money yeah yeah well
biden biden's speech really kind of begged the question of why we still need this 2 trillion
dollar bill if covet is going to be over in may
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but putting that aside i think biden's speech was
very welcome in that he called for states to drop
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all of these crazy eligibility requirements
are actually preventing people from getting vaccinated at this point he says that every adult
american should be able to get a dose by may 1st
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and he's right and you know there's a sharp
contrast with gavin newsom in california who keeps playing political games with the administration
of these doses so in california yesterday just
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yesterday we added 250 000 more doses of unused
uh inventory so we the amount grew to 4.5 million
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unused doses sitting on a shelf only 215 000
people got vaccinated so we're actually building
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inventory faster than we're building the
population of people getting vaccinated and it's because of all these crazy rules and
requirements you have to go make an appointment
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you know and that really actually it's
counterproductive because it discriminates against people who are less computer savvy don't
know how to navigate the website or you know
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communities who don't want to enter their name
in a government database which you know there's a lot of people in california don't want to you
know put put their names in a government database
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and so it works against those communities getting
vaccinated at this point we should just drop all the requirements drop the website let anyone
who wants a vaccine just get in line and get
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vaccinated it'll go much faster the problem is
that we we throw around this word equity and that
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we need to do something with equity and in fact
i think that people who use that word are stupid i think what they're trying to say actually is we
don't want inequity and the most inequitable thing
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is to actually take the most impoverished and
fragile of the population and prevent them from
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actually getting the vaccine because they're
the ones that actually need to be working and can't afford to actually not work or can't
afford to be sick or can't afford to you know
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um find solutions to child care um it's this weird
word that like you know the extreme left uses now
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to describe policies that are just frankly poorly
thought out and even more poorly executed it might
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even be more pernicious than that correct freeburg
in that anybody who gets a shot is helping
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everybody else because they are now a blocker in
the system i know this is incredibly simplistic
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but i'm a simplistic guy and it just seems
to me it's a different way of thinking about the benefit of vaccination and i've said it
in the past but the benefit of vaccination
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is to get enough people vaccinated that the virus
generally stops spreading and then the pandemic
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ends and that's the objective it's not about
creating equitable protection for individuals and as americans it's interesting we think about
it in terms of an individual benefit it's like
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how much do i get what do i get from this vaccine
i want to get protected the other guy's getting protected before me who gets to go first yada
yada becomes this kind of competitive you know
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frothing for a vaccination and the reality is
if we get enough people vaccinated fast enough
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the pandemic ends if we can get 200 million shots
in arms this goes back to i think this tweet i
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sent in in early january december if we get 200
million shots in arms we can be done with the
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pandemic based on you know how many the efficacy
of transmission rate um reduction uh combined
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with the fact that a certain number of people
have already developed immunity to this thing we get to the point that there should be kind of
a you know think about a network and you start
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turning nodes off the network suddenly becomes
really hard to see transmission happen across the network and um and so the prioritization of
you know who gets the vaccine over you know how
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fast we are deploying the vaccine has been
a critical error from day one in my opinion um now look all that being said um i feel like
we could sit here and criticize and argue about
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tactics and strategy all day long about this and
you know make politicians look like idiots and
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administrators look like idiots but the truth
is we are now seeing three million shots a day
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inviting speech he said which if you'll remember
is what i said we really should be targeting is about one percent of the population every day
and that's roughly where we are biden said in
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his speech that we are on a war footing which is
effectively what we said the other day the federal government is operating 600 mass vac sites and
we are right now getting shots in arms for all
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of the issues with prioritization and nonsense
that's going on i feel very in the united states
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i agree with you i agree that biden has the
correct posture on this which is warfooting we are not doing that in california i mean i
just talked about how we're building inventories
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faster than we're getting vaccines administered
newsom just announced that 40 of the vaccines are
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now going to be basically separated out and
reserved for equity zones and you know it's
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what does that even mean it means that certain
communities uh only people in certain communities can get those vaccines and they're going to be
distributed out through this complicated system of
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local community groups all that does is put
money through some no-bid contract to some
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shitty technical company uh a bunch of consultants
that then take advantage of the system get paid
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hundreds of millions or billions of dollars to
to do nothing i mean right exactly i tweeted out
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there's this bot that now scrapes and and by the
way before i tweeted out this thing about this bot which is i think uh yeah i sent it to you
it's it's the california vaccines available bot
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exactly and all it does is it it's it scrapes
that my turn.ca website but before that in our
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group chat there was another friend of ours
who wrote his own scraper if you guys remember and it was really shocking because all it would
show is page after page after page of completely
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open and available vaccine vaccine slots you
know at the moscone center and other places
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and you think all of this stuff is just a bunch
of i'll be blunt uh rich white people sitting in
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a room with their head up their ass and they come
up with these stupid [ __ ] rules and then they try to implement them with words like equity and
all that happens is that you compound inequality
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and let's go back to freeberg's first point which
is that all these unvaccinated people who can't get vaccinated faster become a giant petri
dish for the virus to continue spreading and
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experimenting on morphine and morphing so maybe
we actually do get a vaccine resistant strain the new strains the variants have been popping up
so far are not vaccine resistant but the longer
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the pandemic goes on the longer there's a chance
that one could arise and then we're back to square
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one on this thing so it's going to hurt everybody
um and and here's the crazy thing is that you know
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i think we all know a lot of people i know dozens
of people who've been vaccinated in california and
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they all come to me and tell me they're whispering
about it you know because they don't want to but tell anyone they're not scared of being canceled
they're scared of being canceled because you know
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newsom and and the equity people have created this
idea that if you get a vaccine you're taking away from somebody else in reality you're not because
anybody who's high risk has already gotten the
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vaccine by now or has had access to get the
vaccine and all you're doing right now if you get the vaccine is taking a dose off the shelf
where there's 4.5 million doses sitting there and
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it's increasing by millions every week and so what
we need to do is well let me make a psa actually
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starting on monday uh you could anyone
in california can get the vaccine with a doctor's note and they're saying that doctors
have total discretion to give the note so let me
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just make a psa to everyone out there if you're in
california just go get a doctor's note starting on monday and go get the vaccine yeah you know stop
stop worrying about knew some stupid rules let's
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also just be remember so two points on that not
everyone has the ability to go just get a doctor's
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note it's really hard for people that have to go
to public clinics and so on to get a doctor's note um what we are seeing is a lot of people just
hacking the website almost like soviet union era
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breadlines where they go to the website they type
in something that's not true to get themselves a slot and that's how a lot of people are kind of
filling the void the reality is i just want to go
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back to the point i was making at the beginning i
think we're skating out of this thing and i think that the inventory surplus which is absolutely
being built up at a staggering rate in the united
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states right now if you look at the inventory
forecast from j j pfizer and moderna relative to the deployment rate of the vaccines right now
you are correct we are building up a surplus an
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inventory surplus and the rate of build up per
day is increasing right now so one million extra
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shots a day two million extra shots a day being
yeah probably i think it's a million to a million and so we're building up an inventory and so on
on top of the 30 million we have we have already
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an inventory so so what's happening is there are
natural market dynamics where we are all pointing
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out and saying is starting to play out in terms of
people kind of hacking the system there's so much supply there are many vac sites now you can go
to any supermarket any pharmacy in california
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to get a shot and everyone's just clicking
the box and saying yes i qualify and they're going in and getting shots so the market demand is
starting to meet the supply even though there are
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government and regulatory forces that are trying
to inhibit that from taking place and so i do feel pretty good when you look at kind of the inventory
forecast and you look at how many shots have been
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given per day that in 45 days or so we're going
to get to a point that we're starting to skate out of this thing and kind of call it let me ask
you can i ask you a question despite the idiocy of
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the process that regulators have kind of put in
place yeah free brick i just have a quick science question because i i was trying to find the answer
to this but i i would love for you to tell us
00:11:06
what is the real efficacy of the vaccine and
what is your transmittability like your your
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carrier status once you've gotten for example
like you know let's just say you take the the pfizer vaccine right yeah if you get the pfizer
vaccine how many days until this is like pretty
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good and you know like what is really the risk
profile between the first shot and the second shot
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i'll share this link and then we can post it
on the um on the on the show notes and people
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can take a look at it but it's an excellent paper
published in the new england journal of medicine showing basically a population of unvaccinated
against pfizer vaccinated with half a million
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in each population half a million people yeah and
um yeah and they showed basically the accumulated
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infection rate severe hospitalization rate and
death rate of each of the two populations over
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time and that really kind of i think highlights
the efficacy of the vaccines and at what time period they become efficacious on each
of those metrics and by the way even after the
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first dose across a population of half a million
people the margin of error on death um shows that
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there may even be complete protection against
death after the first dose of the pfizer vaccine
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within seven days of getting that shot pretty
powerful statistic what just to describe the chart for those people listening you have two
populations and one's in blue one's in red and
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it's the time is you know in days on the bottom
axis and when you get to day eight one line goes
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sideways and the other one goes keeps going
straight up so it's day eight after the pfizer
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that you're basically protected according to this
chart um and that's on the first shot and like i
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think it adds like one or two cases yeah that's
right there have been zero deaths so i think day eight is the day and the second dose seems like
to me you know it's just this unbelievable extra
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another amazing chart which maybe we can dump
in the show notes is what's happening in san francisco we hit 10 000 shots a day at the end of
february march 1st we're doing now 2 000 shots a
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day so we literally have dropped 70 percent or so
we're at 3 000 shots i think from the peak yeah so
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this crazy wokeness is resulting in you know in
this this virtue signaling that you know oh we
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can't give any shots to anybody unless we get this
group first or that group first is now leading to everybody hacking the system the hack that i've
heard is since teachers are getting it child care
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people and food service people are getting it
people are now starting to get jobs at doordash
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or saying they're a teacher and if you check that
box according to you know the back channel that
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i've heard you go get the shot and you don't
get they don't ask you for anything they're
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no one's checking it's just a driver's license
the pharmacies the grocery stores the mass fax sites the sfdph california dph administered
sites the federal sites no one's checking
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you sign up you check a box on the website it
says i attest that this is true and then you go and show your id and get your shot and so
a lot of people have kind of initially started
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skirting around the rules by going to be a
door dash driver for a day or what have you and then saying i'm a food and ag worker and
then now generally people i think are just
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clicking on the box and going in and getting a
shot now the sorry the just to go back on the previous question champ i shared it figure 2
nick in this paper i shared particularly box e
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shows the deaths due to covet 19 of a vaccinated
population a non-vaccinated population and then it shows documented stars cov2
infection and you'll see that you basically have
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almost no incremental infections in the vaccinated
population starting around 28 days after your
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first dose and so you know that's really when you
could say you've got you know really good kind of protection from the vaccine and you're already
starting to get the benefits early on antibody
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studies have also shown that there's this big
jump up that happens around that period of time um and so call it three weeks after your first
shot and then in particular the fourth week
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uh you're really kind of like locked in with
a a protective um you know capacity now your question around transmissibility is one
that's still being studied which is if i've
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got a vaccine am i going to be able to pick
up the virus and transmit it to someone else right now you know they're saying well we don't
have evidence one way or the other but i mean
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generally the way that the virus is spread is you
develop an infection in your body your body then
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makes lots of copies of the virus and then you
cough and spit them out in the air and that's how people get it so theoretically you could
carry some virus on your mouth or on your nose
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where those cells don't have immune protectiveness
and you know the vaccine the virus is still alive but it's not spreading in your body you're not
creating a lot of superfluous virus to spread
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in the world so you know the basic science of it
is you should not be spreading covid if you've
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been vaccinated right i mean you may have some on
your skin or in your nose or something for a short period of time but you're not going to develop
a systemic infection that you're then going to
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kind of start exerting everywhere um so i think we
should we should we should start to transition to
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this world of feeling really good and safe and
enjoying ourselves yeah we hit 500 000 shots a day sacks in california and now we're down to
150 000. we've literally gone down two thirds
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under the management yeah of governor hair joe
it's yeah i mean because because you know and and
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what was his in his state of this the state
speech which went over like a lead balloon
00:16:22
the the most notable quote was we're not going
back to normal normal is never good enough normal
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accepts inequity so because there might be some
inequity in the world around the wrong person in
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line getting these doses we're never going back
to normal and he's basically ensuring that result by taking forever with these vaccines but let me
let me um let me go back to to this point about
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efficacy so i think freeberg gave the stats on
look the bottom line here is that vaccines work
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that is the message we should be getting out to
people is that they work and the thing i've been really surprised by in the reactions that i'm
seeing to my own tweets on twitter about this
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is how loud the anti-vaxxed voices are and
how loud and sort of when you say anti-vaxx
00:17:05
you you don't mean not take the vaccine you mean
the vaccine doesn't work and we're never getting rid of kovid the forever people yeah well there's
no it's there's there's actually a lot of people
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on twitter who got really angry when i when i just
tweeted um i tweeted something about how it's so
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it's over i tweeted it's over you know um right
biden says we can all get the vaccine um in may
00:17:29
if if you decide not to do it that's
on you the rest of us are moving on and i got a lot of all i was really saying is look
once the vaccine's available there's no need for
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any of these covert restrictions anymore but a lot
of people interpreted that as me saying something
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that you should be forced to get the the vaccine
or something like that now look i don't think you should be forced to get it but i think it's
highly effective it works and uh but i'm surprised
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at how loud these sort of anti-vax voices are it's
usually like a conspiracy theory around around the
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vaccine and and i think part of the reason why
those voices are are so loud is because they're
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unopposed because all the people who believe
in the vaccine are getting it but they're all afraid of like like you were saying jacal of being
cancelled and so there's a conspiracy of silence
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around this you know what we all need to be saying
is look go get vaccinated it works take the win
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america take the win we screwed this thing up for
14 months can we just take the goddamn win i'll
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give you a little thing that that always pops into
my mind in all of these things whenever i hear
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some politician or some like naval gazing
intellectual use the word inequity i think
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like this is a power grab because the word
equity is really about ownership whereas the word equality is about balance right and and
power hungry politicians love the word equity and
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inequity because it's their opportunity to grab
power and to tell us how things should be done or
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to do things differently in a way where you know
they can enforce their mandate which is typically ill-formed and not very smart um and i would just
encourage all of us whenever you hear the word
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equity or inequity this huge huge red light should
be going up and you're at saying whatever this
00:19:11
person says next is a crock of horseshit and it's
probably a power grab whereas if you hear people
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really talking about solving inequality there's
really no mechanism to solve inequality through
00:19:22
power well i think that's a great point around
the language that gets used and i have a similar
00:19:28
uh concern about the way that the word privilege
gets used we used to have a term in this country called success yeah people were successful or not
and you know success had a connotation of being
00:19:39
earned whereas privilege has a connotation
of being unearned well i mean now sometimes
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privilege is earned success and sometimes
it's unearned and you know but but when you start using the word privilege to describe all
success it implies that there's something you
00:19:54
know unjust or unearned about it and it needs to
be reallocated so you know i that to me is another
00:19:59
one of these political words is we shouldn't be
confusing success with privilege yeah they're two very different things i have an example of
this oprah winfrey is successful prince henry
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is has privilege his privilege his privilege i
shoehorned the uh meghan markle story finally i
00:20:18
mean i do want to talk about the meghan markle
story actually at some point before the end of this podcast but before let's do it right now uh
okay uh uh joe lonsdale actually also had a tweet
00:20:27
um a pretty unapologetic set of tweets around
you know the miscasting of this this concept
00:20:33
of privilege and i thought it was really on
point i really agreed with what he was saying and it's effectively what you're saying david
it's like people right now i find are just so
00:20:41
well not not people the people that take
the time to wallow in twitter um mostly
00:20:48
at least as i interact with them are just
so bitter and i think that there is no
00:20:56
um magnanimous happiness for other people's
success anymore it i think i think like we
00:21:02
live in a culture now where everybody feels it
is so zero-sum when it's not in fact zero-sum um
00:21:09
and people just begrudge other people's
success especially by the way when it's
00:21:14
earned and the reason is because there's an entire
generation of people of all different ages and
00:21:21
you know but this this last five or ten years who
tapped themselves out now some were legitimately
00:21:27
prevented from success but there's a lot of people
that bought into this narrative wow it's a whole conspiracy that's set up against me so i'm
not even going to try and they are often the
00:21:36
loudest and the most embittered absolutely and
the reason is because you know everybody wakes up in their 40s and 50s and starts to rationalize
their choices in their lives and what they really
00:21:46
feel deep down inside is oh my god i just let
an entire decade go by of blaming other people
00:21:53
yeah and i think there's a surprisingly large
amount of that this ideology of victimization
00:21:59
doesn't teach people the right things because you
start to think that you know if you're wallowing in your oppression then you don't have agency
over your own life you're blaming other people
00:22:07
for not being successful not getting ahead
when what you should be doing is focusing on working and improving your own life and getting
ahead or also just redefining what happiness means
00:22:16
happiness doesn't mean what that other person has
and then saying because i don't have that i have nothing happiness is really like introspectively
figuring out like what really makes you complete
00:22:26
and i mean not to get too syrupy about it but it's
like that's what we've also lost the script on so when you when you put all of these things together
there's just a bunch of people that sit on the
00:22:35
sidelines they either are too scared to enter the
arena or they don't want to enter the arena they
00:22:41
don't want the failure that comes from it because
they've grown up in a culture where you know they had the kindergarten soccer ball handed to them
the gold star and everything they participation
00:22:50
trophy um and now what we really need are people
in the arena more than ever folks trying and
00:22:58
it's okay and there's just not enough of them what
instead is there's just a lot of people who just want to [ __ ] and complain and i think this is
the backlash to the meghan markle interview is
00:23:08
is that this miscasting that this is an extremely
privileged person or you know harry and megan
00:23:13
both are very privileged and but but i think
what they're trying to do by making all these sort of accusations of racism against their own
families they're trying to ground that privilege
00:23:24
in victim status and and this is the thing
about privilege is privilege is a social concept
00:23:29
it's got nothing to do with with success which
is either earned or unearned and so the way that people get uh to maintain their privilege
is that again they grounded in some sort of
00:23:39
victimization um it creates these very perverse
incentives my reaction to the meghan markle uh
00:23:46
prince harry interview was the following i had a
lot of um sympathy uh for um what she was saying
00:23:54
um but on the other side i also thought you
must have known what you were getting into on the way in and there was it was be now and look
i'll say this as a canadian and a sri lankan so
00:24:06
the queen and the monarchy is an increase like
it's i can't describe to you guys because you're not part of the commonwealth but it is
just a definitional definitional part
00:24:17
of who we are as we grow up and i
don't know what the equivalent american construct is i guess there isn't one really um
and so you know the monarchy is an incredibly
00:24:28
important thing but we all know that it's this
kind of like anachronistic thing that just kind of
00:24:36
i don't look for us it's not [ __ ] like i mean
like if you said to me despite all my [ __ ] and raging against the machine and society and blah
blah and stature if if i could be invited to meet
00:24:46
the queen i would be there in eight nanoseconds
okay i think the equivalent is the presidency we we actually feel that way about the presidency
like going to visit the president is a president
00:24:56
the presidency is not an endowed kind
of circumstance there's something about there's something about the queen my point
is though we all know a that it's important
00:25:03
it's a great symbol of of the commonwealth i'm
very proud of all of that but we also know it's anachronistic and it doesn't make much sense
and so what what do you uh what do you think
00:25:14
you were marrying into and i think you know my
perspective was i felt bad for her i can't believe you know it got to the place where like people
wouldn't get help for her when she was sick and
00:25:24
you know and then they were questioning harry's
or the the kids uh archie's a skin color i mean
00:25:31
this is insanity like these people are stuck in
the 1800s but then you realize they are actually
00:25:37
stuck in the 1800s because they're not allowed
to have a normal life they're not allowed to actually interact so you know are they at fault or
they or is the system that creates these sort of
00:25:46
like voyeuristic you know exotic animals in a zoo
that we call the king the queen these princes is
00:25:51
the system at fault i don't know i i was kind of
like 50 50 on the interview but my perspective was
00:25:57
the monarchy is in a really tough spot over
the next 30 or 40 years because again so now let me tell you where my belief is i'm kind of
a little bummed by the whole thing the monarchy
00:26:06
doesn't mean what it what what it used to be for
me david what's what was more enthralling to you
00:26:11
this week tucker versus taylor or the queen versus
oprah and prince henry i didn't i didn't spend it
00:26:19
i didn't spend a tremendous amount of time on
either one i mean look i i if i were if i were
00:26:25
harry i would probably do the same thing which
is to basically leave look the first thing i did in my career was lee was quit the the firm right
you know who wants to work for a firm um you know
00:26:36
it's very tracked um so i don't blame him leaving
going to california you know that's what we that's
00:26:41
what we all did right and he was being it's a very
that's a very entrepreneurial american thing to do
00:26:46
what i what i had a problem with was the way
that they're attacking their own family because they're being paid seven million dollars to do
this interview no no no hold on they were not it
00:26:56
was the first question oprah asked and and they
were very clear they were not getting paid now they did sign a hundred million who made the
seven million though no oprah did harpo did oh
00:27:05
well she's a genius yeah she's a genius no no
let's see it again oprah oprah is our queen that's
00:27:12
her queen of america right oprah is the queen she
gets oprah figured out a way to get paid it's even worse it's even worse if they did the interview
for free and didn't even get a piece of the back
00:27:21
end so all they did was attack and besmirch their
family uh for none of that and look i i i guess
00:27:28
my point is so why would they do it if it's not
even about the money i mean it's about this idea of defining their privilege grounding it in victim
status and i think there's something very fake and
00:27:38
phony about that and i think that's why people
had this uh reaction to it where frankly they
00:27:43
were i don't think they're on the side of the
royal family because it's it is outdated but i
00:27:49
think the there was a lot of skepticism towards
what harry and i had a little bit of a problem with the like live from our 15 million dollar
montecito mansion no jason i mean that was that
00:28:05
i know but they also have a 15
million dollar house next to oprah oh no it's public they put five million
down and they took out a mortgage it's uh someone listed this whole thing no it's an honest
question does the do the taxpayers of the uk
00:28:19
fund the princess that's the whole point they went
and did a deal with netflix and they started end of spotify and now they have a salary and they're
making money like everybody else so i mean i'm not
00:28:27
i'm not i don't have an issue with any of that
no i don't have an issue with that i thought the taxpayers were funded the lifestyle they do
fund the lifestyle of the other princes right
00:28:35
sure yeah so i mean that's the thing we talked
about can we talk about something important yeah
00:28:41
okay so a beeple sold for 69 million dollars i
mean this week this one's crazy all the dumbest
00:28:49
[ __ ] happened this week taylor laurence
welcome to this week slaughtered on well yeah that's making dumb [ __ ] so i miss i miss
tucker versus taylor but actually the the real uh
00:28:59
the person who took on taylor that did a brilliant
job was glenn greenwald yeah i don't know i don't know if you guys read his post but that was
brilliant brilliant and basically what he said
00:29:10
is that look you've got these classes of reporters
out there who their job is to go out and they
00:29:15
they're like little hall monitors you know trying
to bus people for whatever they might say in a
00:29:20
clubhouse room not just public figures but private
people too they're in the business of destroying lives and reputations you know that that's
basically their business model but then the second
00:29:30
anyone has any criticism for them they claim
it's harassment which is just absolute nonsense
00:29:38
the only person that was inoculated against
social justice wokeness to write that article is glenn greenwald because he is you know he's
gay he's got brown kids he lives in brazil
00:29:47
you know with uh i mean it's it's fa it's like you
get well irresistible force moving the immovable
00:29:53
meeting the immovable object he he he's not
completely immune because he was he was attacked you know and and people said pretty nasty things
about him but yeah he definitely has some i think
00:30:02
greenwald is an unbelievable writer who calls it
like he sees it um i don't agree with everything
00:30:07
he says all the time um but you know he's right
to call this stuff out there was another bunch of social justice nonsense this week as well
this this poor guy had to like give out this
00:30:17
crazy apology tweet because he said what happened
wait what is that story okay this is the greatest
00:30:22
okay there's a kiss i've been telling you jason i
want you to exercise because i lost 20 pounds look at me i'm looking for something i wanted yeah i
want both of you guys to exercise tell me about it
00:30:31
by the way public service announcement covid
vaccine ca is the bot so at covid vaccine
00:30:37
vaccine it just tweets every five minutes a
hundred different places you can go pretend to be a door dash driver and get a shot sorry
i mean it's just a word vaccinated check a box
00:30:46
check box let's roll people don't let newsome
take away your health yeah don't let newsome
00:30:53
don't focus on equity yeah i mean while he's
at like uh jason tell us about this uh tell us
00:30:59
about this tweet thing what happened there's a
kid named dom he's an entrepreneur he's building a company it's a good company it's funded
by stripe you know it's raised hundreds of
00:31:06
millions of dollars like good for this guy yeah
but he likes to like you know he's kind of like
00:31:11
trying to engage on twitter and he basically
said i feel so much better and i'm performing
00:31:16
at such a higher level since i got my diet and my
exercise right i mean people who are not getting
00:31:22
their physical right are really underperforming at
work it's such an opportunity or whatever and then you know the the large and in charge you know fat
is beautiful you know contingent basically tried
00:31:34
to cancel him sorry wait wait but did he say
that you have to be skinny no he just said you
00:31:39
will before if you're fat you're underperforming
basically he didn't use the word fat but he said
00:31:44
if you're not in shape you're underperforming at
work which i said is there science behind this and yeah sure people showed me 100 studies that show
if you lose weight you have better concentration
00:31:54
and focus i mean it's pretty obvious but he did
the cardinal sin as uh here here i'll read you the
00:31:59
tweet an important lesson i learned well into my
career if you are not physically fit and healthy then you are underperforming at work pretty
basic probably not very controversial but
00:32:09
he did what david sacks always advises uh and the
the the advice he gave to trump which is never
00:32:16
apologize um and he apologized dom apologized
and took the tweet down which then the mob really
00:32:23
went after him and he said i screwed up and i'm
extremely sorry i have recently spent a lot of
00:32:30
energy focused on my fitness eating and sleep
in my enthusiasm for my new fitness regime i
00:32:35
posted a tweet that was meant to celebrate my new
healthy lifestyle but that's not how i came across
00:32:40
and i see now i don't understand if my original
with all the problems that we have that need
00:32:48
fixing i mean this is what people were focused
on this better but here's the exact here's the
00:32:53
kicker of the apology this is something i really
need to improve on and i will well no no i'm not
00:32:59
making fun of him i just think it's sad what the
hell is going on no but i mean don't apologize
00:33:04
if you believe being healthier is you know good
then you should say it and you know we'll let
00:33:11
the chips well with it people can debate it but
i mean can we have a debate about that because this is in the middle of a covid crisis when
the top two vectors are age and obesity period
00:33:21
if you're fat you die from coven that's that's
how it works and you got both those problems
00:33:28
you're old and fat you guys didn't say stupid
all right i'm doing good today all right
00:33:35
today in uh all in nonsense apparently there's
so much money in the system that an nft just sold
00:33:42
for 69 million dollars after we talked about the
previous one billy bought for six million dollars
00:33:47
i don't know that he bought it for six million
dollars but somebody bought one last week nft seem like a real thing it's reasonable to trade stuff
but 69 million i think it's incredible i mean like
00:33:57
like the then i saw the breakdown of like the
number of bidders here let me actually just get this uh data up because i think you guys will
find it really incredible my thesis on this or my
00:34:07
theory rather is um that there are a bunch of
people who have stakes in these crypto assets
00:34:14
and then they all premeditate decide to
buy up these nfts to get the market started
00:34:20
and then once it started like jason that's what
other people do with art right you know this
00:34:26
but i've been buying art for a decade plus and
this is exactly how it works in the art market you know we go in there certain people will go and
buy and then what the gallerist says is oh did you
00:34:36
know that chamath just bought this piece or such
and such a person bought this other piece and then all of a sudden the price spins up and
then they feed into it i mean this is where
00:34:43
you know an enormous amount of money has been
made by gallerists over the last 20 or 30 years now it just happens in a different
medium so the the bidding breakdown
00:34:52
by the way of this nft is incredible 33 active
bidders 91 of the bidders were new to christie's
00:34:58
55 came from the americas 27 percent of
bidders were from europe and 18 were in asia
00:35:05
the age breakdown is the most interesting
six percent were gen z so 97 to 2012. 58
00:35:12
of bidders were millennials 19 born between
81 and 96. wow 33 gen xers and 3 baby boomers
00:35:19
so this is really like a transitional change in
you know basically deciding what's valuable and
00:35:25
i don't think this i don't think this
was any different than you know when you had this transition from you know sort of
impressionist in the art world like if you moved
00:35:32
from the body of work where you know these
impressionist paintings were just going for high tens low hundreds of millions of dollars and
i think it peaked around van gogh um and then you
00:35:42
know basically it went from there off of a cliff
where you can basically give away impressionist paintings uh and everything went to contemporary
and you know sort of like this post-modern stuff
00:35:52
and that was a decisional change by boomers
what is what does giveaway mean to you chamoth
00:36:00
yeah you know tens of millions exactly so i think on the nft stuff and and people
he's people as the artist there's two things
00:36:11
going on right so one is on a technology level
nfts non-fungible tokens there they are it's a
00:36:17
legitimate technology for creating provenance on
a blockchain you know if a piece of art basically
00:36:24
gets put on a blockchain you have perfect
provenance but that doesn't mean that all nfts are valuable in fact most of them won't be it's just
a technology then you have the other thing that's
00:36:33
happening is on an art level what these sort of
um these sort of prestige galleries and so on
00:36:39
they're saying that people is now a major artist
and there's and the reason someone becomes a major
00:36:44
artist is because they usher in like an or become
representative of some new wave of art like jamaat
00:36:50
is saying you've got impressionism you've got
modernism i mean the reason why jackson pollock sells for whatever 100 million dollars no no
300 to 600 okay it's because he represents
00:37:01
an important wave in art and some of those
waves fizzle out and they turn into ponzi
00:37:06
schemes and some of them become real and people
are speculating that this digital art will be a major wave and they're saying that beeple is the
most important artist and they're kind of betting
00:37:15
on that now do i think it's gonna last um i don't
know i mean hard to say you said no you said the
00:37:22
key thing though the key feature of nfts which
i think is amazing is that you can actually have ownership and provenance written into a
blockchain now you take that abstraction
00:37:31
you can apply to all kinds of surface areas
and it makes a ton of sense any kind of other asset would make sense if you own a car if you
own clothes if you own watches if you own wine
00:37:43
what happens if you own a house now all of a
sudden if you can prove ownership over this stuff not only can you trade it but you can also borrow
against it and i think that that is a really
00:37:51
interesting idea where once you financialize
all of these physical assets that we own
00:37:58
you do eliminate an enormous amount of
inequality in the system because you can
00:38:04
actually get real transparent pricing like
now could you yeah blockchains blockchains are a ledger right they're a perfect ledger
system and so like everything every type of
00:38:13
possession that relies on title should eventually
be blockchained so art art's a good example you
00:38:19
know i uh helped found a company back in 2017
called harbor which was a blockchaining uh
00:38:25
real estate and ended up getting uh acquired
so now wired or acquired no it got acquired
00:38:36
don't worry we're going to make money we're
going to make money as an lp i just wanted a clarification yeah no we're we're not
going to make like stack type money but
00:38:43
we'll make a little bit of money on that deal
so don't worry um but but yeah look i think
00:38:48
i i think we're in the early early stages of this
type of technology you're gonna see eventually blockchaining of every of every type of asset
where title is important david i think that this
00:38:57
is such an amazing idea because like if you think
of all of the opaque lending markets where people
00:39:02
can't get access to reasonable cost of capital
and they own assets you know you end up in these
00:39:08
crazy worlds where like if you look at the the
housing crisis uh or the great financial crisis you know there was like so much crazy lending
but behind that lending was like double
00:39:16
triple mortgages it's happening right now in the
car market all of that stuff doesn't necessarily need to exist because if you have clear provenance
and the ability to price risk you just get you
00:39:26
know people can borrow a reasonable amount
of money at a reasonable rate and pay it back and you know you can trade assets you could
sell assets it's a really big deal i think
00:39:35
i think um if you take a zoom out on the uh
you know the notion of what an nft represents
00:39:41
it's it doesn't feel too dissimilar from other um
what i would argue is like non-productive assets
00:39:47
like if you think about where one's capital
goes where an individual puts their capital
00:39:54
the first thing is kind of essentials right things
you need like food and medicine and housing and clothing and whatnot and then you kind of enter
into these kind of you know non-extend you know
00:40:04
kind of discretionary spending for a consumer you
know nice stuff nice clothes luxury goods things that are basically going to diminish then as you
think about allocating the leftover capital you're
00:40:13
either going to allocate your leftover capital
into investable assets that are either productive or non-productive a productive asset is something
you buy that you expect to return it produces some
00:40:23
value for you as you own it such as owning a home
where you get the value of living in it or owning
00:40:28
a car where you get the utility of driving around
in it or owning a bond which issues a you know
00:40:34
you know a coupon or a stock that's gonna you
know generate cash flows at some point in the future theoretically um the non-productive assets
are these assets that are just not designed to do
00:40:44
that but they're a store of value that you
expect at some point to realize some return um you know because someone else will pay a higher
price to you for that non-productive asset this is
00:40:54
like a piece of art or you know some piece of gold
or something it's something that you kind of hold
00:40:59
or you know more increasingly you know digital
assets and it seems like the explosion in digital
00:41:06
assets is you know as jason pointed out at the
beginning like as we've kind of moved to a highly kind of overvalued segment of productive assets
those things that market is very frothy it's
00:41:15
very difficult to kind of find productive
assets that are worth putting capital into there's continually more interest in
non-productive assets across the board
00:41:23
because there's excess capital in the system and
it turns out that when that happens there's enough of a market dynamic that emerges in non-productive
assets it gives people a reason to put their
00:41:32
capital in and expect to have a return on them in
the future as soon as the market starts shrinking as soon as um you know you start having effects
that are deflationary your money will pour out of
00:41:41
that market in general that's always what happens
with the art market and has for hundreds of years um and it's it's it's the digital means of of
kind of realizing that same market transition
00:41:50
that might might talk my question is do you
get the rights i guess this is a dependent on
00:41:56
the terms that are set in the smart contract but
in the case of the people if i were to buy for 69 million do i have the rights to it so that i can
print t-shirts and sell hundred dollar t-shirts
00:42:07
or can i create 10 000 that's more of these
can i monetize it is what i'm asking that's
00:42:12
a great great great question i i don't know but
that's a fabulous question by the way because the alternative like as you pointed out the artist and
and other folks have rights to art um even though
00:42:22
the original painting is what's sold you know the
original um uh master of a bruce springsteen song
00:42:30
could be sold to a collector but the rights the
rights on that track for reproducing it making
00:42:35
money off it are owned by a publishing house so
you can own that physical magnetic tape but not own the rights to exploit it and over time those
rights fall away so if you think about what that
00:42:44
nft represents it represents that particular chain
of electrons and you know this is this is these by
00:42:50
these bits that represent this image um and it's
not necessary to make a hundred more and then
00:42:56
he could change one pixel theoretically or two
pixels and he could go print a bunch of stuff and go not right not really because those images
were ones that he had he he had this rhythm of
00:43:04
creating like one a day i think for a very
period and he contributed them all into this master right exactly so there's a this is a it's a
one of one another interesting uh one of one that
00:43:14
just happened was these uh performance artists
or i guess like underground digital artists
00:43:20
uh bought a banksy for 125 or 125 thousand
dollars i get thousands and millions confused um
00:43:29
everybody well that's a that's a thing you
want to use for this episode is hashtag cancel go ahead uh yeah good luck good luck anyways these
four guys bought bought this banksy um for 125 000
00:43:45
they brought it to a warehouse in brooklyn they
took a high-res image of it okay so they took a
00:43:52
picture of it and they created a one of one nft
right okay then they created a youtube video of
00:44:00
them burning the original banksy so now all you
had was the digital manifestation of this physical
00:44:10
thing wait for it and then they sold it for three
hundred and like fifty thousand dollars so they
00:44:16
three x their money it's the most incredible story
um i can find the link and i'll put it in the
00:44:22
show notes as well but it just shows you what's
happening and then i also think last thing on nfts i saw that i think was like kings of leon just put
out an album and it was like it's like 50 bucks
00:44:31
for a song or something like that and it comes
with like a bunch of uh interesting content so it's the beginning of something guys i just think
that you need sort of like popular content to
00:44:42
get this movement going but it seems to me like
this is what people want to do they want to own digital assets they want to have provenance
they want to have custodial relationships but
00:44:51
that they want to basically but it's just like
it's like art and posters right anyone can put the poster up in their room anyone can buy a
copy for five bucks but who owns the original
00:45:00
and owning the original may be visually identical
maybe graphically identical but it is truly about
00:45:07
that notion of that that theoretical human mind
construct of ownership um that that creates that
00:45:13
distinction and you just effectively have to
count on other human minds believing the same thing in the future for you to be able to
reclaim that value that that monetary value
00:45:22
um or you're going to take a loss on it i mean
jamaat have you ever sold art that you've bought you know i've uh i've sold very little um i tend
to buy and accumulate with this idea of eventually
00:45:33
endowing something with just because it's like you
know i think there are two ways to buy art one is speculatively and the other one is to tell a story
um i took the second path um and so you know it's
00:45:44
stuff that means a lot to me so it's hard for me
to part with it even though it sits in a freeport in delaware so it's not exactly you know out and
about um with this idea that at some points people
00:45:54
will get to really enjoy it once by the way i mean
one of the things that happens in the art world and correct me if i'm wrong on this but you buy
this art and you don't ever a lot of art doesn't
00:46:02
get resold so everyone kind of buys it under the
notion that it's going to be worth more in the future and they can sell it for more but very few
people actually do end up selling it no no no no
00:46:11
that's it so here's what's inside in the trading
market right but like i mean generally like a lot of collectors end up endowing art or or uh gifting
it and when you gift it you get an appraisal done
00:46:22
and you get a deduction on the appraised value
right and so you can definitely do it that way so uh one one interesting story is that um one of
the large auction houses has a financial arm and
00:46:32
uh the most incredible thing is like over like the
last 50 years their cumulative default rate was 30
00:46:41
basis points on their book like cumulatively not
like a year or a month but ever nobody defaults
00:46:50
well because they borrow money for the purposes
of maybe buying other things or whatever and then they will very you know trade out of things
and trade up to things and trade across
00:46:59
things but it's a very vibrant market of buying
and selling it just happens to be very informal
00:47:07
and a little bit closed and very much for insiders
and you know another reason that i think that nfts
00:47:12
will will change because it'll will change this
is that it just makes it available to everybody because you put all art on a very level playing
field and really at the end of the day what is
00:47:22
art it's a commentary on society and i think
that having that level of transparency on that kind of stuff is i think is going to be really
valuable because you don't want one or two people
00:47:31
who you fundamentally disagree with as being
a taste maker for a kind of art that you think is fundamentally flawed right you'd rather it's
just it's no different than being able to go to
00:47:39
95 different media sites to read the content
you want or you know being able to listen to a thousand different kinds of music all of it in
its totality is a commentary on society and i
00:47:49
think what society says is we want transparency
and we want choice and this is where i think
00:47:54
like that's why i think there's a good a good
dovetail into what's happening with the stimulus
00:48:00
bill and where we started which was is this even
necessary um we have uh stimulus checks going
00:48:06
out in the amount of two thousand dollars per
individual in households with under 150k i believe
00:48:12
is um the income level which means people who
were not impacted financially in any way by
00:48:21
what's happened to under covid are going to get
in a family of five ten thousand dollar checks uh even if nobody was laid off or that's only
that's only like nine percent of the bill jason
00:48:31
yeah i mean so it was 100 it was 450 million out
of 1.9 trillion so what do we think the impact
00:48:37
we sort of have working theory oh sorry go ahead
jason what are your general thoughts on this is it necessary and then two what's this what
are the second order effects that we each
00:48:47
predict will happen over the next 18 months
when all of this capital gets injected so
00:48:52
the latter is what i've been focused on trying to
figure out and i saw some really interesting data
00:48:57
which basically i'll ask you guys the question
because maybe you guys know the answer but if you measure wealth inequality when do
you guys think was the most recent period
00:49:08
where there was the least wealth inequality
the least well sorry how do you define that
00:49:14
uh you can measure it like the ginny index or
you can measure it as like you know the the gap between the top decile and the bottom decile in
terms of uh wealth and accumulated assets well
00:49:25
would it be before the robber barons no it was
the between the robber barons and now the period
00:49:31
of the least inequality in recent history was in
the late 70s which is an incredible stat to say
00:49:36
where the gap between the top decide on the bottom
decile was like you know kind of like on an index
00:49:42
like 60 65 whereas today it's sort of like at 100.
um now what happened then and it's this is really
00:49:50
interesting wasn't that an inflationary period
there you go so what happened and as it turns out
00:49:56
inflation is a phenomenal way to decrease level of
the playing field absolutely it decreases people's
00:50:03
richness so it makes rich people poorer that's
really the most effective tool that you have to
00:50:09
recalibrate it's very very hard to redistribute
money and i think every attempt at doing that
00:50:15
has largely failed but the one consistent way
and if you go back periods before that you know
00:50:20
into the beginning of the but in an inflationary
environment borrowing costs go up so you know
00:50:26
businesses and people that rely on borrowing
to grow their net worth they're investing assets to grow their net worth kind of suffer
more than people that what have a home have a
00:50:34
you know weight wages go up in an inflationary
environment right weights go up which actually if you think about like what you said before like
you know as people get wealthier they they move
00:50:43
their money into you know essentially financial
assets and away from sort of like working assets and when you know interest rates go up and the the
risk-free rate goes up then the attractiveness of
00:50:54
those assets go down yeah and so what happens is
shares and technology companies go down but what
00:50:59
i what actually also happens is that you your cost
of capital for a traditional business because it's
00:51:04
higher they have to then charge more which means
that they're paying their employees more and those folks um on a marginal basis tend to then you
know take those dollars and spend those dollars so
00:51:16
inflation is this very productive mechanism
of actually redistributing wealth and actually homeowners benefit homeowners benefit as well but
like you know it shrinks it shrinks the wealth
00:51:28
mild mild inflation mild inflation is
probably good it's probably it's better than
00:51:35
probably deflation but if it tips over into
hyperinflation then it destroys everyone's
00:51:41
savings right and rich people have the ability
to protect their assets against inflation a lot better than the middle class people
do so you know you look at like venezuela
00:51:50
we are germany hyper inflation yeah people just
hyperinflation destroyed the value of of of uh
00:51:57
where are we seeing inflation where do we
anticipate we'll see inflation i saw today tesla's tesla raised the price on all their cars except
for two well they have to because the inputs of
00:52:06
you know if you think about like if you break
down a tesla and you look at where the money goes the money really is in the batteries and
if you break down the batteries it goes into
00:52:13
three critical inputs lithium nickel and cobalt
and the prices are highly suspect and um they're
00:52:20
they're very poorly predicted and so the cost
of tests are going to go up by 20 or 30 percent
00:52:26
and there's nothing that there's nothing that
tesla can do and by the way you'll see this across all commodity products if inflation
takes hold in a in a meaningful way
00:52:35
um including uh you know food products ag products
you know um all commodities you know metals
00:52:42
but um the businesses that will benefit the most
and this is really interesting from a technology
00:52:47
perspective and i think it played in part my
understanding is speaking to a number of pms about this portfolio managers at funds um is that
you know technology companies don't have a lot of
00:52:57
hard assets um and so they have less kind of you
know value accretion and they don't play in a
00:53:03
commodity supply chain so it's much more difficult
for a technology company to say raise rates by 30
00:53:09
whereas a food company can raise rates by
30 percent one of the ways to look at this is to look at the um you know the
book value or the capex you know
00:53:17
property plant and equipment of a business
and businesses that have a lot of pp e are generally going to do better in an
inflationary environment they're going
00:53:24
to have more throughput on that ppe they're going
to have higher dollars per unit of pp e um and so
00:53:30
you'll see you know this is why there's a shift of
dollars into what are traditionally called kind of value stocks or you know kind of bigger industrial
companies away from you know software kind of tech
00:53:39
companies which don't really really benefit
from this inflationary trend um and so there's going to be you know some sort of play out in in
those sorts of products probably more jay calvin
00:53:50
do we see it in sas because i've noticed that
sas prices are going up and that people are just
00:53:57
keep adding to the price of these sas products
i was pricing out all the virtual conference you know stuff like hop in and all that air
meet and whatever and i was just shocked
00:54:05
at how much they wanted to charge you know 15
50 thousand dollars a year and i was like but
00:54:11
can i use like zoom in this for that you know in
a chat room slack room and are we gonna see it
00:54:16
happen in sas where people are gonna start raising
the prices and just increase their profit margin because their employees are gonna demand more
money because they're part of this cycle i i think
00:54:24
that's a function of pricing power uh going up
for sas companies they become more established and
00:54:29
entrenched um those companies are very profitable
i don't think they're experiencing wage pressure in any way um i think they're just becoming
more successful their pricing power is going
00:54:38
up as they become not necessarily monopolist but
as they have more market share and they dominate
00:54:43
their categories they can increase prices but
i want to go back to this idea of the 1970s
00:54:48
because i want to i want to challenge the idea
that the us economy was doing well in the 1970s
00:54:54
so chamath mentioned the the ginny index there was
a different kind of metric called the misery index
00:55:00
that was was a much more popular index that was
used around that time and the misery index was
00:55:08
defined by a brookings economist and it was
basically the sum of the unemployment rate
00:55:13
and the inflation rate and in 1980 the misery
index was 19.7 percent this is why ronald reagan
00:55:21
got elected is because you had a cpi
which the inflation rate of 12.5 percent and then you had unemployment of another 7.2
percent on top of that and you know the 1970s were
00:55:36
especially the late 70s were an economic
disaster for the country so maybe things were more nominally equal but everyone was equally
more equally poor and what you saw in the 1980s
00:55:49
is that they got you know inflation under control
uh paul volcker at the fed broke inflation that
00:55:55
lowered interest rates enormously that allowed
people to buy homes um the stock market went up
00:56:00
and um you know it was an economic boom so i don't
know that this idea that we we want to introduce a
00:56:06
lot of inflation into the system is a good idea
like i said i think mild inflation of say two
00:56:12
percent is better than two percent deflation
the other way but uh but i think we should be
00:56:17
very careful here about um about uh inflation
and making sure it doesn't get out of control
00:56:24
the other index to look at is the quality of life
index which is typically you know health care um
00:56:31
and then the property price to your income ratio
commuting pollution uh safety and those kind of
00:56:38
things and you know the united states is 15th on
that list with obviously the nordics and australia
00:56:44
uh germany new zealand just being at the top
of those rankings in america i've never really
00:56:50
thought about that right we don't really even
discuss happiness you know and that and that quotient we don't index for that happiness and
low stress i think we're talking a lot about
00:56:59
quality of life in san francisco now because
that's a community that's very rich and yet it's a miserable city to live in because crime is
out of control you know jason you and i have been
00:57:08
to focusing on this uh d.a chasebudden who's had
an enormous impact on people's quality of life
00:57:14
because he's simply not prosecuting uh theft
in the city there's actually is a crazy tweet
00:57:20
where a city council member was inside city hall
calling for a hearing on the rampant rise and
00:57:26
theft in the city and meanwhile his car was broken
into right outside city hall i mean you can't make this stuff up and then the other thing that
came out were a whole series of statistics about
00:57:36
crime in san francisco showing or sorry trials
and convictions basically chaisa has not been uh
00:57:43
has not been conducting any trials he hasn't been
convicting anyone it turns out that the number of
00:57:48
trials and convictions that he's gotten in the 14
months he's been d.a is one-tenth of what gascone
00:57:54
got when he was da and by the way gascon's not the
model d.a or anything i mean gascone is facing a
00:58:01
recall in la for delection of duty and he's still
10 times more productive than chase boudin um
00:58:08
just a quick update many of you when i mentioned
the gofundme for to put a journalist on chessa if
00:58:16
you just type in gofundme chessa c-h-e-s-a into
the google we added eight thousand dollars since
00:58:22
last week so we have fifty eight thousand dollars
that's going to a journalist and a data journalist to cover this exact issue uh so thanks to
the folks who donated i'm not taking any
00:58:29
money from it i'm donating obviously um other
than a small other than a small finder's fee
00:58:35
no zero dollars i'm donating to it i basically
said i'll be one percent of it whatever the final
00:58:41
number is i think the marina times has done a
great job with this um yeah and there have been a couple other sources as well but but how dishonest
was it i mean this has been a recurring theme on
00:58:51
the pods i just want to touch on it chase has sent
his little mouthpiece his little minion the high school friend to go out and challenge us writing
that blog post saying that it was a lie that chase
00:59:01
that wasn't prosecuting anybody and lo and behold
the numbers have come out he tried to claim that uh chasa had the same rate of charging that ghost
gascone did and that was true but the problem is
00:59:12
he's been pleading down all these charges he's not
taking anyone to trial he's not convicting anyone he's certainly not locking anybody up so i mean
what what a lie that was well and criminals are
00:59:23
just so savvy that they actually understand what
the chances are of them actually getting convicted
00:59:30
and they shape their grift and their crime to
whatever the environment they're in is just like
00:59:36
people who deal drugs just like people who take
these hardcore fentanyl drugs they just pick the market where they're going to be most welcome so
they're not going to do it down in palo alto or
00:59:45
san mateo or mill valley they're going to do it
on turkey street yeah so so i think that's how
00:59:50
it starts but i got to tell you you know i'm in la
right now and um there was a an episode like last
00:59:56
week at um il pistai but like oh yes and uh it's
it's on canon street and downtown beverly hills
01:00:04
number one italian place that's where all the
celebrities go it's a great italian place there's a lot of outdoor seating there was basically um
a mugging of someone was just sitting at a table
01:00:14
apparently they were wearing a really
nice watch and some and they were they were robbed at gunpoint in the middle you know in
the middle of the of the rest time yeah lunchtime
01:00:24
and then there was a struggle over the gun i don't
know why the guy just didn't hand over the watch but anyway he struggled over the gun four shots
went off one of them bounced off the concrete and
01:00:32
hit a woman in the leg oh my god so this is like
crazy it's getting i mean it's getting out of here sounds like san paulo where they chop people's
arms off for the watch i mean they literally will
01:00:41
drive by apparently and just cut your arm off
if they can't if you don't give them the watch well i just you know the criminals are starting
to feel emboldened because gascone and boudin
01:00:50
are not they're not having trials they're not
prosecuting they're not locking people up and so they're graduating to more and more serious
offenses i'm sure they probably didn't want to
01:00:58
shoot anybody or maybe that wasn't their intention
they just want to steal the watch but it resulted in a shooting just like the deaths of hannah
abbey and elizabeth platt when you had you know
01:01:08
troy mcallister you know hit them with the car so
i mean the fact that we're not locking people up
01:01:14
is resulting in in in people dying and a lot of
risky very risky behavior all right as we wrap
01:01:21
here a lot of spacks going out we obviously saw
um another i guess roblox was a direct listing
01:01:28
um i'm just curious only only under price by
50 it's the same same problem as the ipo so
01:01:35
basically what you're saying is bill gurley's on
his headset walking around el camino real house
01:01:42
what i'm calling journalists what i'm
saying is uh irrespective of what the the goals of the direct listing were the result
is the same as a traditional ipa there you go
01:01:52
um well can i give a shout out to you to a
company that david sacks um sure oh pipe yes
01:02:00
congrats which is a an incredible company that
basically like helps you capitalize your contracts with your customers and it's just it's just
basically this incredible thing that i'm seeing
01:02:10
and it's and there's a couple of others that do
it as well um clearbank is another one but you can
01:02:15
fund your company non-dilutively and at some point
i think we should actually talk about the state of the union adventure maybe we can do that in a
couple of next episodes i have a lot of thoughts
01:02:24
on where i think venture capital is going and when
i see things like pipe i'm just like completely
01:02:29
so happy because i just think it it's uh it's it's
com it's gonna change the the the way in which
01:02:35
venture investing is done it's a it's a
very brilliant idea you can go to pipe.com twist to get 12 months free um pipe.com is a
two-sided marketplace if you have reoccurring
01:02:45
sas revenue or any kind of reoccurring
revenue somebody did it with the sub stack so i think pomp liano the guy who
pumps uh bitcoin he has a newsletter
01:02:56
that makes whatever quarter million dollars a
year um he sold for 95 cents on the dollar his
01:03:03
forward looking subscriptions for the year
and bought bitcoin with it when it was at 35.
01:03:08
so he's like doubling down but if you're a sas
company and we have many of them in our portfolios you could take all of your monthly contracts
sell them on the marketplace to somebody else
01:03:18
not pipe pipe doesn't buy it it's some other
financial person who says i'll give you 94 cents on the dollar give you 92 cents on the
dollar i'll give you 85 cents on the dollar
01:03:25
and so if you were if you have a 10 million
book of business paying monthly you can get
01:03:31
that 10 million now and deploy it but jason i
think more customers i think this is a good this is a good maybe way to end but i think let's
agree that the next pod let's talk let's start
01:03:40
with the future venture capital 100 i mean it's
changing dramatically it's changing dramatically and i i think these non-dilutive ways of growing
a company will completely impact pricing you know
01:03:49
pre money post money the amount of equity that
employees can and should own in these businesses
01:03:56
you know what is the value of brands like you
know it like people will know who david sachs is and who harry hurst is people necessarily don't
even care anymore like you know hey if i'm calling
01:04:06
from sequoia what does that mean anymore um
they're going to say who from sequoyah is calling
01:04:11
so these are all really interesting topics that i
think are worth talking about another path is just the public markets you know right i mean public
markets are becoming the new late stage private
01:04:18
market and it's really you know both the spac and
early stage ipo and direct listing models are are
01:04:25
changing dramatically and it's um and there's
more speculative risk seeking in the public
01:04:30
markets in a way that i don't think we've ever
seen um and it's uh it's creating an opportunity
01:04:35
for companies that are still you know what in
a traditional um kind of sense might be called
01:04:42
you know early stage or still businesses a lot of
risk being able to go public and and you know kind of take their companies out and let the public
markets wager on on how well they're going to
01:04:51
execute and and how well they're going to be
able to develop their product or their market um and it's by the way it's something we've
seen historically with biotech where there's
01:04:58
kind of very binary kind of bets that happen
and binary outcomes because the markets are known and you don't need to kind of productize
or build a business around it but now we're
01:05:05
actually taking both business risk market risk
technology risk product risk um public markets
01:05:11
at all stages and i think you're going to see
these um these scenarios where people will build
01:05:16
public portfolios public business public
company portfolios that will perform a lot like venture portfolios right you'll have one
or two businesses that'll have a 10 bagger and
01:05:24
you know a chunk that will go to zero and a chunk
that'll have some modest return on them and it's going to be yeah it's going to be this tremendous
learning experience because a lot of people will
01:05:32
put all their money into one stock that they think
has already been made it's already it's already done things it's netflix it's netflix it's you
know their promise of the future is 100 certain
01:05:42
and the reality is their promise of the future is
five percent certain and so depending on the price you're entering and how many of these things
you buy you could build a portfolio that could
01:05:49
have a good return but it's um it's going to be
a lot of speculative betting and a lot of losses
01:05:54
and if you don't diversify you're going to lose a
lot of money and you know so the question is also how does it evolve regulatory wise chamath how
are you communicating that to the market because
01:06:03
you'll have some spacks that go out i would
think virgin galactic is in that more like
01:06:08
they're a deep tech researching phase and then
you have other ones that are already you know
01:06:13
churning the the ringing the register right so how
do you communicate that to retail investors or the
01:06:19
audience or that's up to them to do the research
how do you think about that i mean there's as well as the bad inventory that's getting added no
look yeah i do a tweet storm i do a one-pager
01:06:30
i have a multi-hour detailed investor presentation
that's taped and then we have a typically a 100 to
01:06:38
300 page s4 so you can ingress into finding out
the true story of a business at whatever point
01:06:44
you want it really just does come down to doing
your work i mean a lot of the folks on twitter you know when you see the market straight down
and they complain my reaction is stop crying
01:06:52
and do your own work um and there's like we have
complete transparency in this process so it is up
01:06:58
to people to do their job and the the thing that
i think is happening right now is people think that they don't have to do a job and that money
is free and it's not it's hard to make it it's
01:07:07
hard to make good investments it's hard to build a
company everything is hard nothing is really easy because if it was easy everybody would be doing
it all the time and so that's that's what i would
01:07:16
love to leave people with i really gotta go guys
i love you guys all right let's let's start with venture capital next week yeah love you boys
free davids love you love you davidson oh my
01:07:32
i mean we love each other and we can
say it and then the guys on this side love you they're working on it like look at jake
out dragging it out stop dragging everything out
01:07:42
we're dragging it out because we love you david
we'll see you all next time bye bye red bread pills got me lit red pills got me lit red pills
got me lit red pills got me lit red pills got
01:08:01
i've been on a bender on these red pills but i've been on a bender on these red pills
01:08:50
i'm ready to go more i need more red pills
what a joke get me those red pills from miami
01:09:20
um i'm ready to go all right
anybody give a [ __ ] about nfts i've been on