00:00:00
so i was not going to bring this up sack said bring it up no no no no no no no you're already
00:00:05
creating mischaracterizations you said you want to bring it up i'm like sure i don't know i'm not going to veto it
00:00:11
i said well you have to bring on my covid obviously i'm the second bestie to get covered and i told you offline
00:00:17
without the other two besties uh i will just say i got it at a social function period end of story
00:00:23
you said it's okay to talk about yeah it's not like i wanted to bring it up you want to bring it up and i'm
00:00:28
allowing it because i i'm fine with it so go for it we all got something at saks's event you got covet i got
00:00:34
chlamydia oh you guys went to the downstairs rooms downstairs you promised it was a great party all right let's
00:00:50
let's hear jason's accusation i've been hearing about it all week in the chat it
00:00:53
was a great party jason you were angry you were angry and you were yeah you were really mad at
00:01:02
sacks because you thought he actually gave you covet even though saks had people test every single person tested
00:01:08
on the way in except you jacob j cal you walked around the velvet i have and you
00:01:13
said guess what i'm a bestie i don't have to test and you walk right in that party
00:01:18
at the end of the day there's nothing one person that flooded the rules got it karma's a jacob nothing better
00:01:24
personifies poetic justice i do not place blame on anybody foreign you make fun of him you poke him
00:01:34
in this super spreader it was a gop superstar you go to his party and you run around the velvet rope and
00:01:43
you don't get your test and you go in and you walk out with why should i have to test
00:01:47
why should i have to it was really amazing i don't wait all night so i'm a bestie i think he walked out with kovac
00:01:52
because i think he walked in with covet there you go he's the only one not to test so who brought it in
00:01:56
test my daughter and i came to your wonderful party it was amazing it was delightful and we tested and no you
00:02:03
didn't when when you got the party testing with me i had the bracelet i tested it a hundred percent well i
00:02:20
remember when you got into the party and i said how'd your covet test go you said
00:02:24
oh i pulled my bestie card i walked around i pulled my best picture that's not true that's true that's why
00:02:30
you said that you guys are getting probably making up now no you said that okay i mean i may have made a
00:02:37
joke but hold on guys and then i find out the reason why jade wasn't at the party she
00:02:42
was home taking care of two sick kids no she wasn't we yes she was one kid all right here's what happened i went to
00:02:59
the party uh i did test there was a group of people that got there early had tested at another event
00:03:06
they told me this they tested before they got there and they told me that they had accidentally uh brought it with
00:03:12
them because they were the first to have a positive test result so in all likelihood it was that group there's no
00:03:20
it doesn't matter who brought it because omnicrom ominicron is going everywhere what is it um
00:03:26
it's a it's a character from trade i don't understand that what do you mean they brought it with them if they tested
00:03:31
negatives came from another location they tested they claimed they tested then they were the first to come up that
00:03:40
next day with a positive result which takes longer 24 hours to incubate right so that means they must have brought it
00:03:47
with them they they tested it on sunday and had it they were your supporters negative at the door
00:03:52
they did not test at the door they told me they told me they tested the day before
00:03:56
no everybody was just at the door oh you're trying to blame it on no i specifically have tried to not say
00:04:08
the person's name and you're trying to include it's gonna get bleeped out it doesn't matter they were all negative at
00:04:13
the time of the party you hosted a super spreader they didn't get it till like five days later so they were not the
00:04:18
earliest detectives you tested positive you had symptoms before they did remember the tickle in the throat guys
00:04:24
remember what he said last week he had the tickle in the throat anyway thank you for giving me um
00:04:29
omicron i am now super according to all results i am now superman have you tested negative now not yet i i did
00:04:38
a test yesterday nine days later i'm still coming up positive i had two days of symptoms not that any of you give a
00:04:42
you rap bastards did you just laugh about my covet nobody had no point in this conversation did
00:04:49
any of you say how are you feeling was there any chance of death was there any chance i was triple
00:04:55
i had done modern yeah at any point though did you feel like oh i may have to go to the hospital
00:05:00
no that's too bad i felt the tickle in my throat on tuesday he coughed three times he seems twice
00:05:06
and prematurely ejaculated once those were his symptoms [Music] [Music] this is going to be our prediction show
00:05:29
last week we did of course our 2021 bestie awards uh how did everybody feel about last week's awards i think it was
00:05:36
great yeah i was happy it was a fun show i think we um we all got to kind of talk about stuff we wanted to
00:05:43
talk about and uh and it was pretty dynamic i thought it was a good show i liked it it was like
00:05:48
the greatest hits so uh we're going to do some predictions for next year are you gonna do a drum roll in a and a
00:05:53
little scene as well yes okay here we go here's an opening but it's gonna be like
00:05:57
flying into the future like going through space space warp speed warp speed biggest political winner 2022 what did
00:06:14
tucker carlson's former writers uh tell you to say sex [Music] people were intrigued about what was the
00:06:30
second battle about that was the big debate who knows i can't remember the battle
00:06:37
about the beep beep which led to me writing the google doc about beep beep oh i know what it was
00:06:44
then i deserve a better award for that who's your biggest political winner okay come on let's stop at the inside
00:06:49
baseball my biggest political winner for 2022. i predict uh my man ron desantis will be
00:06:55
the big winner he's up for re-election in florida he won uh in 2018 with less than one percent of
00:07:01
the vote it was a real nail-biter this time i think he's going to cruise to re-election quite handily and become the
00:07:08
national front-runner on the gop side and the reason is because he had the right approach on kovitt he
00:07:15
made the vaccine available he made the antibodies available but ultimately he treated the population like adults he
00:07:21
let them make their own decisions he kept businesses open schools open and i think the rest of the country is going
00:07:27
to come around to his point of view because the unstoppability of omicron next year and so i think that
00:07:35
desantis who is much maligned and disparaged will come out as the big winner a year from now all right who do
00:07:41
you got free burke vladimir putin um i think putin's gonna benefit from the rising conflict
00:07:48
between the u.s and china uh the other day there was a call between putin and um
00:07:56
g and they said uh and and putin called g his dear friend and said that relations between the two
00:08:02
countries had reached an unprecedentedly high level and i think that his position um
00:08:07
economically as a trade partner with china and as a beneficiary of chinese economic prosperity will only grow as
00:08:15
tensions between the us and china rise i think we're seeing that with some of his cavalier behavior with the ukraine
00:08:22
right now and i think putin will become a stronger player on the global stage uh particularly as it relates to his
00:08:30
relationship with nato uh over the next year um and he's been a little bit quiet the last few years he
00:08:35
was kind of i'd say suppressed with sanctions and all the other nonsense that's gone on
00:08:41
uh to keep him at bay but he could kind of rise up again in 2022 and and he could become a real player on the
00:08:47
geopolitical stage globally um in a more meaningful way than he has in the last couple years i mean you you white guys
00:08:52
love putin it's crazy the whites love poop i don't love it god i hate putin i mean if you ranked if you ranked russia
00:08:58
gdp do you know even do you have any idea where it even ranks you know russian gdp is probably i mean you guys
00:09:03
for the amount of time you guys give probably probably nigeria is like crushes russia nobody
00:09:10
ever talks about nigeria has all the same inputs except they're black they just don't have 2 000 nuclear weapons
00:09:17
i mean this is a big reason i mean it's a fallen empire for sure but they still have thousand nukes yeah they land the
00:09:23
position the energy that it provides the only one in europe i mean russia is geopolitically pretty uh significant
00:09:30
insignificant economically significant because they have a madman running the country i don't think he's a madman but
00:09:35
i'm just saying that you know there's a there's a lot of ink that's spilled about russia and i don't think anybody
00:09:41
even takes a step back and actually looks like who do you got for yours it's not true in the world guys
00:09:46
uh my my worldwide biggest political winner for 20 to 2022 is xi jinping i think this guy is uh
00:09:59
he's firing on all cylinders and he uh is basically ascendant so 2022 marks the first year where he's essentially really
00:10:08
ruler for life and so i don't think we really know what he's capable of and what he's going to do and so that's just
00:10:14
going to play out you think he's the biggest political winner really oh my god i think i think it's going to be a
00:10:19
he's going to run roughshod not just domestically but also internationally because you have to remember
00:10:24
he controls so much of the critical supply chain that the western world needs to be i think he's completely
00:10:31
i think you're completely wrong i think he's losing his power he's scared that's
00:10:35
why he took out all these ceos he's consolidating power because he fears that they're gonna
00:10:40
win too big and then displace him and he has massive real estate problems over there that could blow up at any moment
00:10:46
in time he could face a civil war there i think he's totally isolated himself civil war they don't even have a major
00:10:52
country is removing their factories and removing this dependency there what are you talking about what are they what's
00:10:57
that what are they gonna riot with uh did you not see tiananmen square did you not see the riots in hong kong are
00:11:03
you not paying attention to moth there's been many riots in china to kill those were crushed
00:11:09
and that's not saying it would be actually he still will have massive amounts of
00:11:14
uh i believe protests and yeah i think i think i think the the bigger risk is is
00:11:19
that china gets better for xi jinping but worse for everybody else in china it's already worse for all the
00:11:24
billionaires uh over there it's worse for the tech industry you've now got evergrand that whole uh you know
00:11:30
gigantic debt implosion i think there could be contagion from china next year i don't think she's gonna lose his grip
00:11:38
in any way but i'm not sure china's gonna have a good year next year it's gonna be
00:11:42
terrible um i went with ron desantis with you sax i think he's obviously um a much more
00:11:49
um he's a much more palatable candidate than trump and i think trump is not going to want to run and that
00:11:58
brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022 as we segway i believe this is going to be split between biden and
00:12:04
trump the two most important people of the last uh four years and i think biden is going to lose the midterms and i
00:12:11
think trump is going to get destroyed with this january 6th thing and uh bow out and not run again who do you
00:12:17
got for your biggest loser let me add an octogenarian to that which is my my pick
00:12:21
for biggest political loser next year is nancy pelosi i there's a red wave coming
00:12:26
the democrats for sure are going to lose the house that is baked into the cake and i predict she will announce her
00:12:31
retirement shortly after that she has served you know a couple of pretty consequential terms as speaker
00:12:37
she's never lost a vote but with this whole build back better she forced all her moderates to take a vote
00:12:44
on five trillion in new spending which they then lost in the senate and that's gonna cost them some seats so she
00:12:49
contributed to i think her own downfall that's going to happen next year is nancy to come work at social capital and
00:12:55
you're going to give her a bucket of capital to work with to try to play the market
00:13:02
by the way jason who's the excellent writer you got from tucker because i want to hire them
00:13:06
all right listen i uh i got somebody from the youtube comments who said they would they would punch me up
00:13:11
all right i got biden and trump nancy pelosi uh and then who do you got freeburg who's your biggest political
00:13:16
user of 2022 prediction mine's a little uh depressing but i i'm honestly a little
00:13:23
bit worried about the united states influence on kind of a global stage socially
00:13:29
politically economically and i think that there's a number of events that could catalyze kind of a
00:13:36
precipitous series of events um that could really harm the continuing influence the u.s has geopolitically so
00:13:44
i i um you know i don't really have an individual but i kind of have the us and it's and its role on the global
00:13:50
geopolitical stage u.s influence u.s influence yeah and you said you thought there was going to be this uh potential
00:13:56
tipping point perhaps you see that being taiwan or what i've got a couple of them
00:14:00
i think when we get into our contrarian points of view i'll share some of them okay uh chamath who do you got for your
00:14:06
biggest political loser for 2022 prediction well look i uh i like your pick of trump
00:14:13
which is not mine but just a double down on this trump thing it's incredible to see
00:14:17
that he's just a bamboozler you know that's the same guy who's like you know telling people to not take the vaccine
00:14:26
gets boosted then you know when he finally gets outed with this other scumbag what's that guy's name
00:14:35
what's that other right knob sacks take out your phone and go to speed dial just read it
00:14:46
those two dopes on stage are like yeah i got boosted what about you yeah i got triple facts then and then everybody's
00:14:52
booing them i mean they're just such watch what they do not what they say guys the great thing is they are phenomenal
00:14:59
entertainers but you can't trust a single word that they say so uh jason i i think that that's a pretty good pick
00:15:06
my pick is the progressive left um as a class because i think these guys are being
00:15:11
exposed basically for just being laughing stocks they'll be quickly becoming policy jokes inside of washington and in
00:15:20
every city state that they run they just can't seem to put one foot in front of the other and they've been run
00:15:27
amok with folks like these teachers unions who have really really really done a number on our
00:15:34
children which is now finally getting exposed in the mainstream media and so all of these policies are just
00:15:41
they're not rooted in any sort of science or legitimacy so they are i think going to pay a pretty heavy
00:15:47
political price for mainstream voters in 22. you know what they remind me of those two guys like uh the old guys from
00:15:53
the muppets statler and waldorf that's what like those uh trump and uh o'reilly are okay
00:15:59
i think biden can still save save a lot of his long-term reputation i think trump's
00:16:05
what would biden need to do in 2022 number one he needs to disavow the the progressives and basically shore up his
00:16:12
party's ability to win back some seats and hold the line and so how would he do to be able to enter some of these places
00:16:19
with some of this rhetoric that you know he basically was convinced would be necessary for him to not lose the
00:16:25
progressive left there just needs to be a conversation inside the white house where they actually go through the cold
00:16:29
political calculus of you know my enemy's enemy is actually my friend kind of thing and actually go back to the
00:16:35
center yeah he needs to pull up bill clinton then trying he needs to pull brooklyn okay and quickly too
00:16:41
i think it's way too early to conclude that the bind presidency is over i mean i think i think they're gonna lose
00:16:46
congress next year that's baked into the cake but he's still got two years after that to
00:16:50
pull his chest outside of the fire and if the republicans overplay their hand and he tacks towards the center
00:16:57
you know he can change his fortunes he can change his fortunes quickly he's down a pawn but he could develop the
00:17:02
board i got him all right i think the voice of populism is only going to swell over the next year and um that that's
00:17:09
going to be the predominant force that's going to drive both the alt-right and the progressive left and it you know
00:17:16
you could make the case that you know politicians that are in seats should be kind of disavowing these what
00:17:21
we today are calling kind of extreme voices but they're only getting louder and the importance of kind of populist
00:17:28
movements not just in the us but you look around the world i mean look at what's happening in brazil
00:17:32
uh various european countries i mean it is like so you think populism is going to have a a rebound in 2022 we're all
00:17:39
saying that we think it's fizzling well i can i just say free breakfast i think populism swelling and i think it's going
00:17:44
to get louder and okay low interest low interest rates are simply keeping things
00:17:48
at bay for now and i think that's going to shift very quickly and um populism just means what's popular and
00:17:54
so i think there's a huge silent majority that's always stayed on the sidelines because they're not the ones
00:17:59
that that are tend to tend to have a tendency to complain but when things get important enough they typically show up
00:18:05
and so you know we may find that actually centrism is what's most popular i think populism is um anti-elitism and
00:18:13
i think that there is a growing concern globally because of globalization that power and capital has been concentrated
00:18:20
in the hands of a few that the voice of the majority is we want to be shared we want that to all be
00:18:26
shared equally and that's what's driving populism around the world and it's in the us
00:18:31
you know manifesting in different ways on the left and the right and you'll see this in other countries around the world
00:18:36
but i don't see the fundamental driving forces changing there until and unless we have massive taxation and
00:18:44
redistribute wealth in a meaningful way or some massive shift in government um that that voice is gonna get any quieter
00:18:50
i think it's only gonna get louder and there may be perturbations between here and there of like what it looks like but
00:18:56
it doesn't seem to be going away that that's that's just to me kind of the underlying driving force and it's
00:19:02
manifesting with different political stuff right now but interesting um it's not it doesn't seem to be silent biggest
00:19:08
business winner for twenty twenty two month let's start with you small businesses um
00:19:13
i think what we are starting to see is that these monolithic monopolistic megacorps aren't everything
00:19:22
that they're cracked up to be and so there's going to be a certain amount of lock-in that we will tolerate
00:19:29
there's going to be a lot of taxation and policy that prevents its further growth
00:19:36
and all of that opportunity accrues to smaller companies and so in general i think that if you are on the side of the
00:19:43
david versus these goliaths over the next year you're going to have or well frankly over the next several decades
00:19:49
but starting really next year you're going to do really well and the middle companies so the folks that are
00:19:55
neither huge nor are small let's take a you know an example like a shopify 100 billion dollar market cap but by no
00:20:02
means is it a trillion dollar market cap their success comes from enabling you know arming the rebels
00:20:09
and so i'm a huge fan of these enabling this enabling layer for small businesses both
00:20:15
offline and online who do you got freebird um i am actually gonna go with stripe stripe is a payment technology
00:20:22
company based in san francisco uh stripe raised money earlier this year at a 95 billion dollar valuation um the
00:20:28
highest valued ipo tech ipo in history was alibaba they were valued at 230 billion dollars when they went public
00:20:36
we are hearing rumors that stripe might you know kind of or think that the bankers think they
00:20:42
might be able to break that and so stripes ipo could be the biggest tech ipo ever um i think they've been talking
00:20:48
about doing a direct listing by the way i don't know the guys i don't know the investors i don't know the company i'm
00:20:52
not an investor so i don't have any information whatsoever i'm simply an observer and and talk to people in the
00:20:57
market but it sounds like they're going for direct listing and we could see that
00:21:01
become the highest valuation tech ipo ever and then they will become kind of the golden child next year
00:21:07
uh and you know kind of be be part of the you know the the top of the top what do you got
00:21:13
sex i got rise of the rest meaning the parts of the united states that are not the traditional california new york
00:21:21
centers of industry and wealth i think it's a trend that's been going on but it's going to keep getting bigger next
00:21:27
year if you guys saw the net migration numbers by state they're absolutely stunning
00:21:32
stunning so and it's the it's the zero tax states that are just booming right now it's states like florida and texas
00:21:38
and tennessee and on and on it goes at the huge expense of california and new york i think that trend's only going to
00:21:45
pick up steam now that salt is dead i think there was a hope on the part of many people that you know
00:21:50
trump got rid of salt but and the democrats were supposed to bring it back and then aoc rejected it it's not coming
00:21:56
back and what that means is that if you're in safe california for example you know with assault deduction your
00:22:03
effective tax rate was around eight percent not 13.3 percent now it really is 13.3 percent that's a huge increase
00:22:10
and the politicians in california don't even realize that the tax rate has effectively gone up to the end taxpayer
00:22:17
and uh and and the quality of life isn't any better we're not getting anything more for that and so i think this x is
00:22:22
coming so that's that's the subtle map that they actually really need to understand
00:22:27
that 500 basis points you can overcome that if your life is five percent better in enough ways where you're like it's
00:22:33
fine and the reason why people are leaving is they feel that their life is actually much less than five percent
00:22:40
worse right if the traffic light doesn't justify it you know your windows are getting smashed in all the time safe
00:22:46
your kids are you know depressed and need counseling because of the way that the teachers unions lock them out of
00:22:50
school you're just like forget this i can't do this anymore right you gotta add those two numbers yeah you're here
00:22:56
that's what that's what people really need to appreciate i don't think it's the actual effective tax rate but it's
00:23:01
the delta of how poor your quality of life has gotten over these last few years relative to the tax you pay
00:23:07
yeah i totally agree with that and then one other effect that i think plays into
00:23:11
this is the reshoring of american industry which is not happening in places like california new york it's
00:23:16
happening in places like texas sure samsung just announced a 17 billion dollar investment in a new chip
00:23:22
foundry in texas here i'll post this and there's a lot of things like this happening so as we decouple from china
00:23:29
and bring our supply chain home let's go that is going to be a big factor in the
00:23:33
rise of the rest love it love it it it's great it's great for america because the
00:23:36
wealth does need to be more evenly distributed it can't just go to tech and finance elites in california in new york
00:23:43
yeah all right um i had two uh disney was my uh biggest corporate winner for 2022
00:23:49
disney plus crushing it parks raised prices people want to go to the park spider-man just had i think the number
00:23:55
two or number three all-time opening in a pandemic which is crazy that ip is going to continue to work for
00:24:01
them john favreau and david fiolini i think is how you pronounce his last name both crushing it
00:24:07
with mandalorian boba fett one of the great characters from our childhood now is going to have
00:24:13
his own book of boba fett starting on december 29th is that today or tomorrow uh tomorrow and so i think disney's
00:24:19
gonna have a huge surge i think they're undervalued but my my number one for this category of biggest business winner
00:24:24
for 2022 was millennials in gen z i think that they became completely empowered and independent they shook off
00:24:31
the participation trophies and their entitlement during covid they realized that they have skills that
00:24:38
are valuable they're sought after they learned how to make money they traded crypto they did stock trading they're
00:24:44
doing shorts puts whatever on robinhood and they're just not impressed with people in power and they
00:24:50
increasingly want to build and make money i think that those two generations have woken up and i think they're going
00:24:55
to be the biggest winners in 2022 because dovetailing with your smbs chamoth i do
00:25:01
think uh and i'm seeing it across my entire portfolio of companies uh you try to hire somebody and they're like yeah
00:25:06
but maybe i can start my own company and sacks are actually saying a flavor of the same thing actually yeah because all
00:25:11
these smbs aren't gonna happen in new york and san francisco they're happening all over
00:25:15
america and they're people that are taking empowerment into their own hands there's tooling for them and there's
00:25:20
opportunity economic opportunity for them to build businesses on their own and basically just say you know few
00:25:26
build your nothing builds your confidence like moving from one city to another and
00:25:32
having that's a very empowering thing to do when you're just like you know what i'm going to just leave and go somewhere
00:25:35
else i'll make it myself so i feel like they are uh super impressive to me i really believe in i really believe in
00:25:42
this because the three of us got there in totally different ways but i think it's roughly all the same we might be
00:25:46
triangulating around a trend here biggest business loser for 2022. i'll just give it real quick i think crypto
00:25:52
projects that actually don't deliver a product in 2022 are just going to be um lost i think this idea that people are
00:26:01
going to bet on things that don't exist in the real world or don't actually have
00:26:04
applications is going to end it's time for crypto to put up or shut up and i think the crypto projects that do that
00:26:10
which a number of them are starting to are going to soar but it's going to be a big shake out there what do you got for
00:26:15
biggest business loser in 2022 freeburg i agree with you actually that was mine yeah oh wow
00:26:21
i said crypto bubble will burst there's a lot of scammy nonsense going on 90 of these projects okay you know are not
00:26:28
going to yield value and fundamentals and i also think that rising interest rates are going to affect the crypto
00:26:34
market there's a lot of leveraged trades into the crypto assets those will start to deliver
00:26:41
as these interest rates shift up and as a whole you'll see a large percentage of them go away or decline in
00:26:48
value but a small number will continue to grow in value just like we saw when the dot-com bubble blew up there was a
00:26:53
number of companies that survived most of them did not and the few that did survive ended up being coming worth
00:26:59
10 times what the current market value is and i think that that's still possible with these crypto projects but
00:27:03
uh i'd say 90 percent of them are probably going to start to blow up next year what do you got your mother
00:27:09
well i guess i'm fading you guys and i'm also fading implicitly friedberg's pick
00:27:13
of stripe but my biggest business loser for 2022 is visa and mastercard and traditional payment rails
00:27:20
and the entire ecosystem around it so i think that this is the year you can put on
00:27:26
what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime which is to be short these companies and
00:27:34
that anybody that basically lives off of this two or three percent tax and be long
00:27:40
well thought out web three crypto projects that are rebuilding payments infrastructure
00:27:46
in a completely decentralized way now that doesn't necessarily mean that what you say won't also happen both that
00:27:53
stripe will have an incredible ipo and that a lot of these scammy crypto projects will go to zero however if you
00:27:58
read the white papers of these crypto projects and you systematically put together a
00:28:03
framework i think you can be long those and you can be short visa mastercard because i think this is their peak
00:28:09
market count and for those of you don't know fading and sports betting taking the opposite
00:28:14
side of a bet taking the opposite team i guess man visas market cap is half a trillion
00:28:18
dollars huh it's incredible it's a completely contrived duopoly and what does it mean
00:28:24
to a young person and mastercard's almost 400 billion so they're trillion dollar combined market
00:28:30
you have to understand that the canary in the coal mine here is pretty significant the most important thing is
00:28:35
amazon earlier this year nick maybe you can post this decided to just shut visa off
00:28:40
in the uk oh yeah now amazon is not going to do something like that in my opinion unless it's a test of what they
00:28:47
can do all around the world and again going back to this idea of arming the rebels there really is no
00:28:53
need today for all of these small businesses to sit on top of visa mastercard and amex rails it's
00:28:59
unnecessary and so it'll probably get developed in the developing world first this is why i think you know focusing in
00:29:06
markets like nigeria to me are way more exciting than talking about you know these fading
00:29:12
western european countries who cares right this is where this stuff will happen um it's not to say that those are those
00:29:19
other companies can't you know trundle along for a while but when i say you know we'll look back
00:29:25
in 10 years and their market caps will be materially lower anybody in those traditional
00:29:31
infrastructure and rails versus anybody in this new infrastructure in rails will be it will
00:29:37
look like a no-brainer do you consider the buy now pay later companies like a firm and upstart or whatever i don't
00:29:43
know if upstart fits in that category but some of these buy now pay later businesses as being the alternative to
00:29:48
the traditional payment networks or do you think that it's a different business no i right now i think what what by now
00:29:53
pay later is is is a rate arbitrage right when as you said earlier rates are very very low so the cost of capital is
00:30:00
low but it again starts to habituate the consumer experience to i don't need to pay these users rates to these three
00:30:07
credit card companies to facilitate a transaction of money that i already have or money that i'm good for that's the
00:30:14
big idea right and so when you translate that into web 3 in a good project or a good series of projects
00:30:20
you're not going to need these companies and so it's going to i think eviscerate
00:30:24
trillions of dollars of bargaining you also have in between these two venmo and cash app which are not crypto but
00:30:31
they certainly as brands mean more to you this is why like do you think yeah do you think block used to be
00:30:37
called square is a good fair trade against visa mastercard in this context yeah i like it
00:30:42
you know i think that that that starts to get closer to to the truth my perspective is
00:30:48
you can kind of short anybody who's public because anybody who's public can really only be public or will go public
00:30:56
because they feast off of this artificial two or three percent transaction fee everybody does
00:31:02
the companies you want to belong are those private companies in crypto that you can read the white papers of whose
00:31:08
protocols have utility and who's building some element of infrastructure that replaces
00:31:15
a traditional business so as long as you can kind of build those things up biology for example had
00:31:21
a bunch of tweets this weekend where he was like you know i he has this idea for
00:31:25
a mirror table what is that that replaces you know cap table management right now why is that important well it
00:31:31
because it touches all of these really important kyc aml investing laws across all these
00:31:38
countries in all of these places it's just a very simple example of where the new company that actually builds
00:31:43
that capability of these mirror tables will do so at virtually no cost and so it'll have a 50-person team and so
00:31:50
they're not going to have offices all over the world their cost basis will be you know an or order or two orders of
00:31:57
magnitude let's face it visa mastercard became a tax and you can't compete in decades to
00:32:02
have that power over folks but i think a firm does break that a firm breaks it because the people who
00:32:07
are selling then decide you know what we'll give a little bit of a discount here to get more people to buy go ahead
00:32:14
they were the classic network monopoly network effect monopoly business right like they got the small
00:32:18
businesses they got the credit cards and by extension the consumers on the network and ultimately they created
00:32:24
these these absolutely locked in networks but as with all networks complacency kind of
00:32:30
you know drives innovation and this field innovation that we're seeing is now starting to figure out ways to not
00:32:36
just crack their way into the network but to replace them with an entirely different model last point on this this
00:32:40
is not one where i think this disruption happens slow i think it happens swiftly swiftly being
00:32:46
five to ten years no like in a year yeah chamoth's point is really interesting because there's
00:32:51
you know there are several billion people globally who do not have credit and who are unbanked and so if you think
00:32:58
about where this is more likely to come from it's more likely to come from an innovative model
00:33:03
in those markets that then ultimately finds its way into the developed world versus you know trying to break apart
00:33:09
visa and mastercard and go get these small businesses to switch out of them and so on uh today so it's it's really
00:33:14
interesting okay sax what do you got i don't know if it's biggest loser but the thing i'm most worried about is in 2022
00:33:20
the fed is going to stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are i guess march will be the last month in
00:33:27
which they do this qe so starting in april there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system
00:33:33
and so i think the the losers are going to be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have
00:33:40
benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system uh it's true that the stock market i
00:33:46
think has already priced in rate increases and an increase in the discount rate but i don't know if
00:33:51
markets can fully price in a reduction in liquidity we don't know exactly what that's going to look like
00:33:56
and so if liquidity is reduced next year i think that could reverberate through a bunch of markets
00:34:02
including you know everything from sports cards you know collectibles which have gone through the roof to art to
00:34:11
crypto to you know maybe some growth stocks and on and on it goes so that's my biggest worry is what happens
00:34:21
when the fed stops qe and the biggest loser is markets because of uh quantitative the markets that have to
00:34:28
get off drugs basically okay most contrarian belief uh saxophone tell us your muscular and belief since i'm sure
00:34:35
that you workshop this with the contrarian peter thiel himself it never ends yeah i mean so i i have a
00:34:42
couple of them here actually you want to wait and go after everybody else sure yeah go ahead uh i don't even know if
00:34:47
this is contrarian or just unconventional but i think that all of this pressure in
00:34:55
on the progressive left will manifest in the chosen one aoc deciding to step up and run against
00:35:03
schumer in the primary in june of 2022 and she will lose wow that's a good prediction i like
00:35:12
jamaat's prediction that's a bold one yeah that she would lose is well sorry just to give a little bit of
00:35:17
color in this like let's just assume that she doesn't right and and you know that she
00:35:22
shouldn't but let think about where she's sitting build back better is over there's an
00:35:27
enormous amount of stuff happening right now where you know it looks like the progressive left is really going to be
00:35:33
put under pressure and it's almost as if if she's really going to be the standard bearer and
00:35:39
she needs to do something quickly otherwise she's going to have to wait until she's 38 you know she's you know
00:35:45
another six years from now because it's not unlikely that she's gonna run against kristen you know kirsten
00:35:49
gillibrand so this is kind of like it may be a moment where out of her sheer frustration she
00:35:55
steps up and then we will see whether freeberg is right or i'm right whether the populism
00:36:00
is really around the left or the populism is really around the silent majority what do you got
00:36:05
sex i think i think that's a very good prediction um in a similar way i predict that there
00:36:11
will be a strange new respect for bill clinton in the democratic party by the end of next year why because after the
00:36:17
red wave there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center they need to triangulate and and clinton
00:36:23
was the one who provided the formula for doing this he dragged the democratic party back to the center after they were
00:36:28
losing elections and the other piece of this is going to be that it's already the case in polling that
00:36:35
hispanics and asian americans now are swing voters and i think you're going to see in november 2022 that they go for
00:36:43
republicans of big numbers and so the idea that the democratic party can just coast
00:36:48
to election based on demographics i think that theory is going to be imperiled yeah and so and
00:36:55
so they're going to be looking to clinton and maybe not so much obama as the as sort of the predicate they should be
00:37:02
you know aspiring to in the future i think what's important about that is those groups of people
00:37:06
i think are offended by the free money get something for nothing they're hard-working immigrant people who have
00:37:12
pride they don't want handouts and then you have this left white liberal maniac saying no no you're poor you need
00:37:17
handouts you don't you shouldn't work you need handouts you're you know uh and i just think they don't buy it and
00:37:23
that's why i think they're gonna go to the republicans because republicans are hardworking and freedom-loving and what
00:37:27
was clinton's big tagline in his campaign he he said that he supports people who work hard and play by the
00:37:33
rules that was that so crazy that's the message the democrats got to refine right now they seem to be on the side of
00:37:39
basically drug addicts i mean you know people who junkies are contributing nothing and
00:37:44
pitching tents in the middle of public spaces and you know participating in open air drug markets yeah what do you
00:37:50
got free and sore losers don't forget sir losers yeah and hysterical free burgers and
00:37:54
hysterical people i mean being hysterical just never good luck if you'll bear with me i have
00:38:00
i have three but um uh i couldn't really pick so the first one is i think and i shared this on the
00:38:05
pod the other day i think we'll see the start of um great global conflict we we often rationalize the series of
00:38:15
events that that catalyze conflict after the fact rather than recognizing that there was emotional
00:38:22
conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place i think we're in a state
00:38:26
today where the conditioning is such that we're more inclined to engage in conflict globally than we have been in a
00:38:34
very long time i don't know if it's kind of the conflict meter or what have you but you know you could see proxy wars
00:38:41
uh and proxy conflict that arise sort of like what we're seeing you know maybe something in in the ukraine maybe
00:38:47
something related to taiwan but this is primarily predicated by the fact that we've got uh kind of this inflationary
00:38:53
environment and the rise of populism will force the kind of domestic policymakers and
00:38:59
legislators to say we should do something that's active and something that will allow us to unite our nations
00:39:06
to go and get into a conflict somewhere or more likely to do that than not and so i would say that the conditioning is
00:39:12
there to see something like that happen and so we're not kind of thinking hey next
00:39:17
year's going to be a year of war and that's why it's contrary and i think that there may be war
00:39:22
that we're not kind of paying attention to today or that will surprise us after the fact the second thing is i'd say
00:39:28
china may solidify its position next year and this is going to sound a little crazy as
00:39:34
a leader in climate change mitigation whereas it's historically been considered kind of the primary foe against climate
00:39:42
change and there's a couple of behaviors we've seen come out of china recently that i think number one remember china's
00:39:48
a very rational actor they do analysis they make decisions based on long-term investments in thinking they recently
00:39:54
announced that they're going to build 150 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years at a cost of roughly 450
00:39:59
billion dollars that's about 3 billion per nuclear power plant the us is currently spending 30 billion dollars
00:40:06
building two power plants in georgia so the chinese have figured it out they've also publicly declared that they're
00:40:11
going to be completely carbon neutral with their economy by the year 2060 and they're making the investments through
00:40:17
these nuclear power plants to demonstrate that they're actually on the road to do that and there are a number
00:40:21
of other infrastructure initiatives that are meant to help them achieve significant reductions in
00:40:27
uh in carbon by 2040 so so let me just point out why this is important because right now everyone thinks china's the
00:40:33
foe they're causing climate change they're the biggest problem imagine if over the next year
00:40:38
some of what they're doing pays off and everyone says my gosh china is leading the world in climate change mitigation
00:40:44
their influence socially and politically will rise and this this gives china a very strong kind of position you know on
00:40:51
the global stage and with with kind of people around the world thinking instead of china being a foe maybe they're the
00:40:56
leader and the u.s is the laggard um and that creates a my third is very random which is some
00:41:01
sort of natural catastrophe we we never account uh you know all natural catastrophes are very low probability
00:41:10
but very high severity if you multiply the probability by the severity you have what's called the expected loss we
00:41:16
always undervalue the expected loss of massive catastrophes natural catastrophes we haven't had one in a
00:41:22
while uh it's a very low probability bet for me to say hey maybe we will but if we do
00:41:27
um it's certainly under-appreciated in markets today and so when these kind of you know black swan type events occur
00:41:34
did you uh did you watch don't look up on netflix is that why you're no what is that it's a new movie about uh
00:41:40
crap don't watch it uh it's it's polarizing let's leave it out for now okay um i'll watch it it's crap my most
00:41:47
contrarian belief is i think this is contrarian is that american influence and exceptional exceptionalism is going
00:41:54
to soar i believe that is contrarian uh i think we've empowered this next generation as
00:42:00
i talked about earlier millennials gen z are ready to be independent to build and i think gen x is going to start
00:42:07
taking over from boomers as is what's happening in this very podcast here as we start to hit or reach time years as
00:42:13
executives um and then all these boomers are retiring as chamath has pointed out over
00:42:18
and over again and they're going to pass down their wealth which then creates a perfect storm of a ton of capital a ton
00:42:23
of energy lots of new ideas a different perspective when the economy is going to
00:42:27
boom uh and we will prove once again that we're the greatest country and economy
00:42:32
in the world jk you're not you're not a contrarian you're what we call an optimist yeah okay and then i'll add to
00:42:37
that jkl what are we are we gen x we're gen x yes and the fighting over covet abortion guns social justice and
00:42:44
all this stuff is so exhausting not that these are not important issues that i think everybody
00:42:49
is going to move to let's just start respecting and building and solving problems and i just think american
00:42:55
exceptionalism will be um all that happens in 2022 i just think that that is my contrarian
00:43:02
belief for 2022 everybody believes it's a primary race i think everybody believes it's coming
00:43:07
apart i don't think anything's coming apart from the next century in a year i think
00:43:11
it's going to be a great year i think it's going to be a great year can i give my second contrarian prediction oh god
00:43:16
here we go yes okay it's good here it is i think the media the media is going to pull a total 180
00:43:23
on kovid okay so after pumping out coveted fear porn for two years they're gonna change their tune next year
00:43:30
um some of the things you're gonna hear we need to live with covid it can't be eradicated
00:43:35
they're even gonna say it's it's more like a cold or flu they're gonna say that politicians can't be expected to
00:43:41
stop it they're going to memory hole their support for lockdowns we never supported that
00:43:46
and why is all of this because we have an election next year and more americans have already died from covid
00:43:54
under joe biden than donald trump that's appreciated memory hold what was your term yeah you've never heard of the term
00:43:59
memory hole it's what the problem is got it yeah but did you guys know that that more americans have already died
00:44:06
from covet under joe biden under donald trump that is stunning yeah it is stunning are you sure yeah
00:44:12
100 now his writers triple fact checked it yeah they did they did no look look it up um and it's certainly it's going
00:44:19
to be even more true worse.com now look i don't blame joe biden for that sorry wait why is that because
00:44:27
trump had no vaccine and biden has had vaccines and everything else maybe it's the consistency of them
00:44:33
we've had a consistent you know one to two thousand people die a day fourteen hundred a day so maybe it's just that
00:44:38
consistency in the us yeah i think it's because of the republican states that refuse
00:44:43
to do any mitigation okay let's keep going look i don't blame biden for that i don't blame any president united states
00:44:51
nonetheless biden campaigned on the idea of he's quote unquote shutting down the
00:44:56
virus um he he and the democrats claimed to that they would be able to eradicate
00:45:01
it that was the entire basis for all these coveted restrictions now it's it's the case that it can't be done
00:45:07
everyone's realizing that they're gonna have to move the goal post a memory whole ever saying that and so the
00:45:13
democrats desperately need covet to be over for the 2022 midterms therefore the media will say it's over well you
00:45:20
started to see it already because the media is probably scratching their head they were the ones trying to force these
00:45:25
lockdowns you know basking in the glow of whatever press release the the centers for disease control would put
00:45:32
out and all of a sudden the cdc just had to do a complete 180 and when they used
00:45:37
to force 10-day quarantines for these positive tests and people with covet they just backtracked to five and
00:45:43
why was because there's nobody to work yeah the delta ceo asked for it last week and now they're i don't know if
00:45:49
that's exactly true the cdc ultimately really is just in the hands of big business and so when big business needs
00:45:54
these workers to come back you know they and it probably pissed off a lot of unions who would have loved to
00:45:59
have just had a positive test and stay home forever the teachers unions particularly here we are so this is a
00:46:04
really tough situation well and look and to be clear the message that the media is going to deliver about kovid next
00:46:11
year it'll be the first time i agree with it but it's completely dishonest to them to
00:46:16
pretend like they were never in favor of lockdowns and they completely inflated the threat and created this whole
00:46:22
hysteria and next year they're gonna have to back off but also take it because no politicians
00:46:28
that this new variant is much less deadly so it would be logical for people to take a less severe application on it
00:46:34
now hold on jason we don't know whether there are more variants to come in the future that
00:46:39
could be much worse the cdc makes a decision broadly speaking about everything they're not making a decision about
00:46:49
omicron they didn't say if you have omicron because not only if they really even test for it i'm just talking about
00:46:54
the reason they shortened this is because they didn't know what they were doing before
00:46:59
they don't fundamentally know what they're doing now they're making best guesses and the problem with these best
00:47:04
guesses is that they're inaccurate and it forces enormous amounts of waves of havoc every time they make it you know
00:47:10
what i'm talking about i'm talking about sax's prediction that the media will flip
00:47:14
a logical person including everybody on this call because of omicron taking over
00:47:18
for delta and being a natural blocker it would be the logical thing to do so in defense of the media which i'm not apt
00:47:24
to do it's logical for everybody to take a different approach right now because omicron is 40 times more contagious it
00:47:29
blocks delta and it's become the dominant variant i think right now the media is confused they're not sure which
00:47:34
way to go so you know there's a high probability that they tacked towards what sax is saying but if you read the
00:47:39
new york times article it was through gritted teeth they presented the fact that the cdc changed the guy yes if you
00:47:45
read that article it was like pulling teeth what do you mean when you say the media can you just define that a little
00:47:51
bit it's everybody about fox news come on it's the elite prestige media it's the
00:47:56
new york times the washington post cnn msnbc on and on and on do you think there's a bigger audience with the
00:48:01
aggregate of those publications you just mentioned or the direct to the consumer
00:48:08
publications that are happening on youtube of course they're being disaggregated because of their
00:48:12
dishonesty so does it matter yeah of course it still matters because they still have a lot of influence they do
00:48:17
and no offense to everybody on youtube but we haven't gotten yet to the economic viability where enough people
00:48:23
on youtube can cover the broad spectrum of things that are important and then the mechanisms and incentives to amplify
00:48:28
it so for example that's a good point we still need cnn there was a woman on cnn
00:48:33
nick please post the clip that you we posted in the group chat talking about the incidents of suicide
00:48:38
rates and depression in our children and what happened when they were locked out
00:48:43
of school for two years okay and i am not going to stop talking about this because this is the issue of our times
00:48:49
these are our kids well i want to get to under-reported stories uh as well jan oh for me i mean my kids hear me rant
00:48:58
about this every day so i may as well tell you guys it's it's the crushing impact that our covert policies have had
00:49:04
on young kids and children uh by far you know the least serious risk for serious
00:49:09
illness uh but i mean even teenagers you know a healthy teenager has a one in a million chance of getting in dot and
00:49:17
dying from covid which is way lower than you know dying in a car wreck on a road
00:49:22
trip but they have suffered and sacrificed the most especially kids in underrepresented at-risk communities and
00:49:29
now we have the surgeon general saying there's a mental health crisis among our kids
00:49:35
the risk of suicide girl suicide attempts among girls now up 51 this year black kids
00:49:42
nearly twice as likely as as white kids to die by suicide i mean school closures
00:49:48
lockdowns cancellation of sports you couldn't even go on a playground in the dc area without cops scurrying
00:49:55
getting shoeing the kids off tremendous negative impact on kids and it's been an
00:50:00
afterthought you know it's it's it's hurt their dreams their future learning loss risk
00:50:06
of abuse their mental health and now with our knowledge our vaccines if our policies don't reflect a more
00:50:14
measured and reasonable approach for our children they will be paying for our generation's decisions uh the rest of
00:50:21
their lives and that to me is the greatest under-reported story of the past year and i don't see it being
00:50:27
talked about anywhere we talked about it first you know i posted that link about
00:50:31
the decrease in iq points and then we started to talk about it there slowly and now it's trickling into the
00:50:36
mainstream media where they're forced to talk and who's impacted it's not rich kids it's a common kind it's all of ours
00:50:42
that was a fantastic clip that cnn clip was fantastic the ones who are the ones who get hit the hardest they can't do
00:50:48
supplementals don't don't minimize what this is this is every child yeah very disproportionately effective
00:50:56
the data was that it's disproportionately affecting minority kids yeah okay and that could
00:51:01
be because of the sociology of the parents but jason you can also have rachel's parents okay jay so i'm just
00:51:06
saying parents i'm saying all poor kids white poor kids who are public schools poor kids they're getting hit by
00:51:11
minority kids of all kinds but frankly the point is it's all kids of all kinds okay so we don't need to sub-segment
00:51:18
this to make this issue go away and seem smaller than it is we have literally put
00:51:22
tens of millions of children yes at risk because of our behavior yes i'm agree with you and i'm not trying to minimize
00:51:29
it or make it a smaller issue your point is that none of the smaller audiences um or smaller new media folks on youtube
00:51:37
or their podcasting have enough breadth to really make an impact by talking about this topic is that what you're
00:51:42
saying that the mainstream media is needed to hit the broad base no what i'm saying is very specific
00:51:48
the people on youtube cover what the people on youtube want okay the people on podcasts cover what they want they're
00:51:54
all very narrow their narrow niche okay yeah there is no set of incentives that then threads that together
00:52:00
and then amplifies right in the absence of those two mechanics right those are software mechanics and
00:52:06
economic mechanics that need to get built in what we lose is signal right that in my
00:52:11
opinion right now over the last two weeks is the single most important signal and it is nowhere except for this
00:52:17
one clip on cnn and the discussion that we had two weeks ago because the youtube
00:52:22
i just want to be really clear on this because youtube is full of react videos right
00:52:26
and video games which is fine and the concern is missing yeah is talking about this issue and actually
00:52:33
holding people accountable and who should be held accountable in every single county where it was basically a
00:52:39
board of education that was trying to shut these kids out who stood up and who told that story
00:52:45
nobody did and if it was trying to be told it wasn't amplified correctly enough and so what happens is after two
00:52:51
years of damage to all of our kids tens of millions of kids there's a couple of fissures one fissure
00:52:58
was on this podcast which i'm very proud of another fissure was this one few minutes ago
00:53:04
cbs cbs whatever which is sunday show yeah but my point is these are the things that really matter and we haven't
00:53:10
figured it out yet what you're saying and i think it's a really important point is that as a youtuber as a
00:53:14
podcaster you pick your niche that you can hit home on and you hit home over and over every week but no one says i'm
00:53:21
gonna broadly talk about the issues of our time and make sure no no that's not true we do we do but it's it's a small
00:53:28
subset but i think the bigger pictures there's more than a million people a week that listen to this we've we've far
00:53:34
exceeded msnbc's average viewership we're probably going to pass you know most cnbc shows and some cnn shows by
00:53:43
the end of next year so we will do it but there's not enough there needs to be more of us we're an opinion show as much
00:53:48
you know we're not a traditional reporting show right in the sense that like go out gather data and facts and
00:53:54
present them or do you disagree with them not that they do that anymore i disagree with that i disagree i actually
00:53:57
think we do a decent job of filtering for the truth and the reason we're able to do that is because of our friendship
00:54:03
we can hold each other accountable and call out the when we see because we don't have incentives we
00:54:07
don't have anything to lose right i don't think there's anyone here but i want to build on something that sack
00:54:12
said see it is very hard for the media to hold this dissonance because they're saying everybody needs to shelter in
00:54:18
place covid is you know this huge thing they put the death count they put the case counter up they won't talk about
00:54:24
debts in icu they won't talk about who's getting coveted because they have an incentive to get more ratings through
00:54:30
kovid or trump and they took that and then it's a narrative violation or it's cognitive dissonance if they say at
00:54:36
the same time everybody needs to shelter in place this thing is really deadly but
00:54:39
we should send our kids to school so they couldn't take that position sax and chamoth they couldn't take the position
00:54:44
that oh well kids could go to school because that would go against hey everybody needs to shelter in place and
00:54:49
they picked i think covet is this super deadly thing everybody has to shelter in
00:54:55
place over children you're giving them way too much credit i think what happened was they had a position
00:55:01
to re-aggregate lost power and they took it that's real sense they did not think about the true
00:55:09
consequences and it may not have happened at any one individual reporter level but when it ladders up to the
00:55:15
editorial board and the decisions of the people who run the mass heads of these organizations they made the decision
00:55:21
that currying and organizing power was more important than shining a light to do the right thing
00:55:27
specifically in this case the thing that aggravates me the most is around our kids yeah i think they were going for
00:55:32
ratings but anyway we can keep debating it well one thing we can say for sure is
00:55:36
they created a hysteria whether their motivation was ratings or a power grab or political advantage there was
00:55:44
probably all the above but the bottom line is they wanted to create a hysteria and they've been pumping covid fear porn
00:55:50
into the population for the last two years but my prediction like i said is that it
00:55:55
all flips next year why because there's an election and the way the media figures out what it's gonna what its
00:56:00
narrative is gonna be is they start with the election result they want and then they reverse engineer the narrative that
00:56:06
they think is going to help achieve that election result and if it means contradicting what they said yesterday
00:56:10
they will memory whole what they said yesterday in order to get on board the new narrative that is what's gonna
00:56:15
happen i do think you're right but i think i just i wanna i don't wanna lose this
00:56:19
threat because this has nothing to do with covet meaning covet was a symptom of this but
00:56:27
if you really thought that the organized mainstream media had the right to be you know has a purpose to be
00:56:34
on the right side of justice where were they when when school boards were stripping out
00:56:39
you know advanced placement programs for kids or where were they when they were shutting kids out or where were they
00:56:45
when they were engaged in eight hours they can't go against whether you know a male can be on a committee you know
00:56:52
because he's gay but he's not you know black i mean these were the issues that stopped our
00:56:57
children from literally walking into the classroom every day well i mean they just those stories were
00:57:03
not told and they didn't happen just in one place they happened all across the country and this is where those folks
00:57:10
had a responsibility because they also probably had kids and they didn't do a thing about it that
00:57:15
one issue for me really drives me crazy let me ask a probing question here we assume we're going to get out of this um
00:57:20
you know pandemic in 2022 knock on wood no more variants what is the obligation and technique the
00:57:28
strategy to solve what we did to these kids and i just want to put out there we don't have
00:57:32
to answer it now but i think we could spend an episode that's a very difficult question jkl that i think you need so
00:57:39
sociologists and psychologists and educators we also need entrepreneurship and ideas and we need to have a dialogue
00:57:44
so we can bring them on but if we're going to spend all this money on buildback better how about we build back
00:57:48
the 20 loss iq points that these kids have and then we do something about the depression and anxiety they have
00:57:53
hallelujah jason we're never going to get there because the teachers unions won't even acknowledge that learning
00:57:58
loss exists the leaders we need to break the teachers unions period yes oh let me
00:58:02
make a prediction in that regard next year there is going to be a ballot initiative in california
00:58:07
to before school choice and the way it's gonna work is that i think there's something like
00:58:13
thirteen thousand dollars spent per pupil in california that's right that's right there's gonna be there's gonna be
00:58:19
a ballot initiative that says that any parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for
00:58:26
thirteen thousand dollars from the state that's just gonna be on the ballot competition let's go i predict it will
00:58:31
be the big big election in california and maybe the nation next year and i think more than 100 million will be
00:58:37
spent on both sides of that thing and i i can't predict it's going to win i hope
00:58:40
it does this is a topic worth fighting over this is something important to fight over yes absolutely it's school
00:58:46
choice because you know what absolutely these guys pulled the wool over everybody's eyes they slipped them the
00:58:50
mickey they hoodwinked them you need choice we know this as entrepreneurs if there is no competition
00:58:58
things do not get better these school unions are complacent well let's make a resolution let's make a new year's
00:59:04
resolution because i think we all agree on this um i got approached about this ballot initiative
00:59:09
it's it's going to happen there's going to be like i said a major ballot initiative next year for school choice
00:59:14
in let's get california it all in summit profits we'll put towards this yes let's do it let's pull i'm in
00:59:24
i'm in let's put some money behind this i want to tell you just to more personalize this issue because i really
00:59:28
think a lot of people listening struggle with this i entered the pandemic with rules
00:59:35
i had rules about devices i had rules about you know how much time they could be online i had rules around physical
00:59:42
fitness right i had rules around diet and it all went out the window and it became this thing where it was like
00:59:51
feed them the best they can sometimes they eat lunch with us sometimes they have to eat lunch by themselves because
00:59:56
i'm stuck on some stupid zoom you know back to back in these dumb meetings because these kids aren't at school
01:00:03
their only way to interact with their friends became video games like fortnight where they could at least talk
01:00:08
to their friends yeah but then it became an addiction where they were doing it for hours and hours yeah and now i'm
01:00:13
trying to and you know they gained weight because they weren't physically active
01:00:17
and i am trying to unwind as is nat as is my ex-wife we're doing it together as a team it is so
01:00:25
hard absolutely hard what about all these people who don't have the access to the resources that i
01:00:32
have to try to unwind this and then what happens is i send my kids to the school
01:00:36
and oh they may have a headache guess what they get sent home and then their brother and sister have to get sent home
01:00:41
too until you can test and be coveted negative for a day in a row and so there's yet another day of school loss
01:00:47
totally nuts and it's like this is supposed to be one of the best schools in the country it's
01:00:51
not totally and then i think what is every other school like then if this is what i if this is what i know my
01:00:56
children have to do i think we should make this we should have this as a major theme for 2022 for the pod i think it's
01:01:01
we need to hold educators and teachers unions accountable absolutely school boards accountable all
01:01:08
around the country to fix this this is your responsibility you need to fix it listen we held police officers
01:01:14
responsible in the last year or two we've seen this you know policing being really like a spotlight put on it well
01:01:20
let's put that same spotlight on teachers and administrators and schools they'll never do it they'll never do it
01:01:25
without competition you that's the only way to politicians hold their feet you know what what i
01:01:30
learned to build on what you said was i just decided to get a teacher and obviously i
01:01:37
have the means to do it it's i know most people don't i certainly didn't have it
01:01:40
growing up we could barely you know afford to exist but i think homeschooling is a viable
01:01:47
option so with that 13k i can tell you five parents um who are in an underprivileged area can take that five
01:01:54
times their team and take that what is that 65k and put it together and for 65k they can
01:02:01
hire a teacher and they can do a better job with those parents and a teacher for those five
01:02:05
kids i guarantee it so let's go to best performing asset of 2022 what do you got
01:02:10
your mom this is simple this would be battery metals uh lithium nickel cobalt okay graphite put them in
01:02:20
a basket like you can be along these things and rapid fire stacks what do you got best
01:02:24
performing apps i just said series a venture because it's pretty unoriginal it's what i do i think growth got a
01:02:29
little bit over funded and overheated and i think the seed stage also there's like so there were so many new c
01:02:36
investors again it might have been partially because of excess liquidity so series a is still the choke point and i
01:02:42
think it's still the best area to invest in innovation's not gonna stop there's gonna be great series a investments next
01:02:48
year i also picked early stage startups because uh that's where the magic happens i
01:02:55
picked early stage like right before series a i think spacking direct listings raising money people
01:03:01
coming down to do the series b's all of that is creating a pull for more startups and the founders are getting
01:03:08
very sophisticated in terms of finding product market fit and scaling globally you know earlier and that's what's
01:03:16
creating these great big outcomes whether it's uber or facebook both figuring out and airbnb how to go global
01:03:23
quickly so my choice for best performing asset of 2022 is still early stage startups freeburg what do you got
01:03:30
obviously best performing asset in terms of a multiples basis you're never going
01:03:33
to beat seed stage investing certainly um but uh you know i tried to highlight uh
01:03:39
and continue my uh kind of contrarian bet that we're to see increased global conflict next year again driven by you
01:03:46
know incumbents trying to hold on to political office and increase the inflation and fueling economic growth
01:03:52
and the american response to china so in a world of increased global conflict i think assets that do really well are
01:03:57
energy commodities and energy stocks i recently made a big bet on energy stocks uh
01:04:03
defense stocks and it used to be a gold it could be the case that bitcoin uh you
01:04:08
know sees a a role as being a defensive uh position in portfolios in a world of uh of war and conflict so though those
01:04:16
are my kind of macro themes for for asset most anticipated trend of 2022 what he got you off a
01:04:23
trend you're anticipating in 2022 peer-to-peer payments um the destruction of traditional rails uh it will come out
01:04:30
of africa great sacks what do you got this is where i had the civil war between progressives and programmatic liberals
01:04:37
so building on what jamaa said you're already seeing this in the feud between london breed and chase a boudin that is
01:04:43
really gonna i think blossom next year we have not heard the last of that you saw it in philadelphia where the mayor
01:04:50
michael nutter took on larry krasner i think you're gonna see it in new york city between eric adams and these
01:04:56
manhattan elites um and you also saw it in washington d.c where the progressives were blaming
01:05:02
mansion for you know the losing the build back better so this is a civil war it's going to continue and uh which moth
01:05:09
predicted with aoc versus schumer would would certainly play into that so uh it's grab the popcorn it is the
01:05:16
the trend i'm anticipating the most all right there you go uh do you anticipate a similar trend with like the alt-right
01:05:22
trumpians and desantis and that kind of thing breaking up how do you see that playing out not not yet because um trump
01:05:29
isn't on the ballot in 2022 so i actually think the republican party is going to be surprisingly united in 2022
01:05:34
i think where the trouble might come in is when we have a republican primary in 2023 and especially if trump runs then
01:05:43
you know all hell's going to break loose so who is who are the two people who would
01:05:47
be most viable against trump in that 2023 ron desantis and ted cruz nikki haley vicki helen that's going to be that's
01:05:55
going to be fireworks freeberg what do you got anticipated trend my biggest uh anticipated trend for 2022 is going to
01:06:01
be a gold rush in biotech into what i think will become the cover story on magazines throughout the year that
01:06:10
humans have discovered the fountain of youth and this will arise from these investments in what are called yamanaka
01:06:17
factor based cell reprogramming methods i've talked about this on the pod in the
01:06:20
past a few years ago scientists identified that four chemicals could trigger gene expression
01:06:27
in cells and get those cells to effectively revert to being stem cells and more recently demonstrated that
01:06:32
using lower amounts of those chemicals and other what are called kind of epigenetic
01:06:37
epigenetic factors can trigger partial cell reprogramming which causes cells in the body to act youthful
01:06:44
as a result of those discoveries an absolute gold rush is now underway um more recently yuri milner jeff bezos
01:06:52
arch and others put a billion dollars to seed a new company called alto's labs to
01:06:56
pursue therapeutics in this area google has individually funded a company called
01:07:01
calico led by art levinson the former founder and ceo of genentech and uh just recently uh blake byers and
01:07:08
brian armstrong announced their new company called new limit with a hundred million dollars their own personal
01:07:12
capital all of these companies are pursuing the same effort which is um basically causing cells to be youthful
01:07:21
to regenerate in a youthful way and as a result you see kind of organs um and and systems in the body uh act
01:07:28
more healthily and there will be magazine covers and you know uh 60 minutes arctic stories and all sorts of
01:07:34
stuff will start to happen in 2022 saying oh my gosh as because the amount of money that's gone in in this year is
01:07:40
going to cause breakthroughs and discoveries to start to get published about next year and when that starts to
01:07:44
happen and the media and the pr cycle start to kick up you'll see this become the year of yamanaka factor based
01:07:49
reprogramming and everyone's saying it's gonna be the biggest gold rush um in biotech since recombinant dna um
01:07:56
was used by genentech in the uh in the 80s and 90s all right and uh i had uh most
01:08:01
anticipated trend of 2022 being the incredible investor laws are going to change and evolve and it might just be
01:08:09
you take a test and you're now accredited it doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200 000 a year
01:08:14
and a legal crypto framework is going to happen i think at the same time so those
01:08:19
regulations combined are going to empower really interesting capital formation uh on a global basis whether
01:08:25
it's running a syndicate with everybody in the world including non-accredited investors or dows or
01:08:31
those two things merging or as biology is talking about you know a cap table over here that's mirrored on
01:08:38
a blockchain at the same time and people being able to trade their interest in chamot's fund or sax's fund or one of my
01:08:43
syndicates with tokens on the internet and that could become that's pretty cool a major
01:08:49
unlock where you know if you were in i don't have a fund i run a meager family office
01:08:54
well if you were in your earlier funds and somebody and there was still stuff trickling to social capital three the
01:08:59
people who have that could sell it back to you or sell it to each other if they wanted to get liquidity um and that's
01:09:04
going to be super interesting especially if it could happen just globally where some person in china
01:09:09
decides they want to have access to u.s funds rlps could just start selling if it was structured that way most
01:09:19
anticipated film tv series media yadda yadda for 20 20 22. what do you got yellowstone season nine
01:09:27
uh sex so what's the first two episodes it's really great i mean you forget what a great actor um
01:09:35
what's his name is uh kevin costner coster is a great actor yes yellowstone is great i'll be watching next season
01:09:42
but what i had down here is thor ragnarok uh the writer director of td is back if you saw um the last thor
01:09:50
movie ragnarok ragnarok the new one is called thor love and thunder yeah and you know thor went from
01:09:58
being i think one of the most boring marvel characters in the first two movies to totally being one of the
01:10:02
funniest and yeah you know most fun in his last movie so i think that sequel will be really good and then the
01:10:09
other one is they're doing a prequel show for game of thrones called house of the dragon i'm gonna have to watch that
01:10:15
and then the probably the the um star wars show i'm looking forward to most would be the obi-wan kenobi show with
01:10:22
you and mcgregor so that was anakin and i had as well the obi-wan show the boba fett show and the mandalorian shows
01:10:31
all coming back are going to be absolutely bonkers and then there's also this um token uh series that's coming
01:10:38
out the prequel i think that amazon spending a billion dollars on and i think that's landing in 2022. uh what do
01:10:45
you got chama it is the all in summit in may in miami and uh the the birth of all in media
01:10:55
so i think that we by the end of 2022 we'll have um published content written content not
01:11:03
necessarily by us well but uh other forms of uh media interaction that get the truth out to a
01:11:11
large swath of humanity is this moving is this moving beyond just a couple of besties doing a podcast
01:11:18
during lockdown what what all right wait so all in media is that a new acronym all in media
01:11:26
what are we doing should we buy like a cable channel and just go 24 hours the name is the truth media a media okay
01:11:32
there you go i didn't even know this is news to the rest of us but is uh building on the media broke okay here we
01:11:36
go who are we gonna hire tucker um there'll be no shortage of folks who will want to come out of the woodwork to
01:11:45
work with us on this and i think the goal should just be to make sure we figure out what the real north star is
01:11:52
so that we never deviate and part of the biggest things that that we did guys was not trying to hustle for some few
01:11:59
you know shekels here or there which was like jkl wanted to yeah what are they talking
01:12:03
about we're going to work out we're going to talk in a minute about the plan for the
01:12:07
summit the purity of not wrapping this thing with crappy ads and all kinds of nonsense is we've never lost our way we
01:12:13
don't need some stupid deal for some crappy media company we all have independent ways in which we
01:12:20
can monetize our lives and our hard work and so we should come to this to always
01:12:23
tell the truth i think that that's a one of the i will say one of the great innovations that
01:12:28
and decisions that you championed was not putting ads on it i hear it all the time for people i mean we're saving you
01:12:34
from yourself jacob it's an interesting idea where you use advertising basis that's not driven by advertising dollars
01:12:42
and not driven by greater by trying to maximize page views and clicks and visits um then it completely changes the
01:12:50
equation of what's possible i think this was part of the idea of what publicly funded media was supposed to be but it
01:12:56
obviously got you know maybe a little bit too far afield yeah it was it's just two yeah
01:13:01
just two well then they started adding ads i don't know if you remember that they lost some funding and they're like
01:13:05
okay we're gonna go for sponsorships they're not ads or sponsorships so you're saying we're the new pbs
01:13:10
no it's something different we do this without any expectation of financial reward we do it because we
01:13:16
enjoy it and so what's up for you jkl you've been no i mean i have other things that make money thank you very
01:13:21
much i didn't know we were doing this category who what bbc show that nobody watches
01:13:52
are you going to recommend does it matter i mean come on what show from finland with subtitles uh i don't know
01:13:58
you know i spent a lot of time watching um like esoteric videos and stuff i find on
01:14:03
youtube i really think it's so interesting it's such a different way of consuming media just tell us what video
01:14:08
game you're playing anderson is putting out a porno all right what video game are you
01:14:22
playing i called uh i called freeberg on the phone to talk about the ledge when he was going crazy on the group chat
01:14:27
he's like i can't talk him on a video game what video games i was actually playing a video game by annapurna
01:14:33
interactive which is larry ellison's daughter's media production company and apparently
01:14:37
i didn't know this they had a video game arm and the video games are and the game
01:14:41
i was playing was called maquette and um you kind of you kind of have this like interesting movie like poetic
01:14:47
experience as you play the game so it's not really just designed to be action-packed and i don't know i thought
01:14:52
it was a very interesting new way of um entertaining oneself okay we can move on
01:14:57
it was highly stimulating she made a simulation of a biology lab and uh you actually get different beaker sizes and
01:15:04
you have different sub proteins like you start you get to buy all of these lab equipment you want but it means it's
01:15:10
actually easy it's kind of like a simulation it's like the same speed you must first mine it
01:15:15
and the way that you mine is by solving mathematical equations i made a cruelty-free fish device dish in my
01:15:21
laboratory because of the genocide of fish that was a little controversial take last week i got dms from people
01:15:30
that was a spicy take freebird did you get any blow back from that spicy take last week the spiciest of the fruit
01:15:36
i'm actually going to respond to everyone that sent me a note directly was it really because i people are like
01:15:41
you're well well here's the thing the comment i made that i think really triggered people was
01:15:46
i said that animal agriculture is worse than human slavery and maybe i'll just address it now real
01:15:52
quick yeah you know i think the the point of view that people took away from that was that
01:15:57
i diminished you know the pain and the the resonance uh in today's kind of socio-economic
01:16:04
context of uh human slavery particularly recently in america um and that wasn't my intention at all
01:16:11
clearly not your intention yeah what i'm trying to highlight is you know first of
01:16:15
all human slavery has been around as long as humans have been around right for ten thousand years back to ancient
01:16:19
egypt the enslavement of humans the the removal of opportunity and freedom granted to every living being um is is
01:16:28
certainly manifest in the form of human slavery and we kind of take it as a very
01:16:31
acute pain point what i was highlighting is every year over a hundred billion land-based animals are killed and
01:16:38
they're born and put in chains and put in jails and then murdered and eaten by humans
01:16:46
as routine and we don't like lift our head up and recognize just how serious and how skilled this this um
01:16:53
you know this behavior is uh the industrialization of this process uh is really abhorrent and there's videos you
01:16:59
can watch and i think when you watch them you'll recognize not delicious yeah i knew it was coming yeah
01:17:04
don't do it and i know but i i do think that you know chama's voice in this is is
01:17:09
really the voice that kept us from ever becoming an issue because it's not human
01:17:12
we don't kind of pay attention to it yeah and i'm just trying to highlight that there is something that is at such
01:17:16
an extraordinary scale that we don't pay attention to that one day we'll wake up
01:17:20
and we'll be like oh my god how do we miss that complete agreement with your friend if you look at
01:17:24
all life being precious and you say the life of a cow the life of a dog the life
01:17:30
of a human these are all lives the scale of suffering is these animals yeah these animals
01:17:38
experiences to be honest with you these animals these animals can problem solve they can feel emotion they can recognize
01:17:44
yeah they can they can recognize things happening to them and to their their loved ones and their family members and
01:17:48
i think that in the context of that to cause pain and suffering on those animals and on those creatures at the
01:17:53
scale that we do is something that's just mind-blowing to me i think not enough and i expect that one day we will
01:17:58
wake up and be like i cannot believe we allowed our society to do that but i do think that we need to solve tomas
01:18:03
problem which is how do you make something that's freaking delicious how do you make it cheaper hold on a second
01:18:08
it's not a problem like my perspective is i understand where you're coming from i respect your point
01:18:12
of view but here's my point of view which is we evolved to superior superiority in an evolutionary process that was not
01:18:21
preordained okay and we are now in a position where we are allowed to consume things that we
01:18:27
choose now there is also a claim that you could make that you know what a tiger or a lion should not be
01:18:34
attacking and killing a gazelle because you know that's causing suffering to the
01:18:38
gazelle or blah blah at the end of the day how we choose to go and consume the things that we need for sustenance is a
01:18:44
choice that we can make and there are probably better choices we can make over time
01:18:48
but at the end of the day i think that this was a reasonable evolution of humanity and human ingenuity and
01:18:54
intellect and i don't feel guilty about that i don't weigh the suffering of animals
01:18:59
the same way i weigh the suffering of human beings i don't and i would argue that when we were apes in the jungle and
01:19:04
we didn't have the choice i would wholeheartedly agree with you but today we are a people that do have the choice
01:19:11
what choices and it's because we have the choice to not eat meat and still survive and still be happy that we can
01:19:17
make a better choice it tastes good like there's a part of my soul i'll just that's and i agree and that's why i
01:19:22
think we need to solve that problem and that's why i believe it's not a problem if you made an alternative for you that
01:19:29
tasted good and was as affordable as the alternative which is actually killing an
01:19:33
animal you would choose it and we haven't given you that solution yet when i say we i mean call it the techno food
01:19:39
people but there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area and we will devise artificially produced meat
01:19:46
that will not be made by killing an animal but will be made in the lab looks and tastes identical or a piece of sushi
01:19:51
just give us a year over you'll have a piece of sushi in three years you will have
01:19:56
uh you will be able to go taste chicken next year it'll be very very expensive okay uh but cell-based meat will be
01:20:03
available at a commercial scale within the next five to ten years our you know steak that's really what
01:20:09
it's about david my commitment to you is i will do a taste test whenever you say
01:20:13
what you call that you you pick the place the time totally i will show up and if it's better i will never eat meat
01:20:19
again okay we're not ready we're not ready for that that's a that's a great commitment all right yeah and i i i am
01:20:24
similar in the commitment but in the meantime it's not it's distinct but i will say
01:20:31
friedberg if you're going to have a party and it's only vegan you need to put that
01:20:37
on the invite because i came thinking you were going to feed jacob came to my party there was no meat he was really
01:20:41
upset he was going around my party being like what the hell is this there's no meat in
01:20:45
this party what am i not saying can you make me a hamburger the woman from wherever my nappa was like i've never
01:20:51
touched meat incredible ribeye on new year on christmas eve oh my god all right everybody for the dictator
01:20:59
himself chamoth paulie hapatio with great hair uh touch of gray never looked better and
01:21:05
the sultan of science david friedberg and tucker carlson's destiny gop front runner david sacks super spreading
01:21:14
kovid super spreading the truth super spreading the truth david sacks from an undisclosed bestie uh hideaway
01:21:24
uh which we all know but we won't say i'm jake al and we'll see you in 2022 it's been a great year bye-bye
01:21:33
we'll let your winners ride rain man [Music] we opened sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it
01:21:46
[Music] it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release [Music]
01:22:14
your feet [Music] i'm going on [Music]