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David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong

November 19, 2025 / 01:34

This episode discusses the depreciation schedules of data centers, focusing on claims made by Michael Bur regarding hyperscalers like Google. Key topics include the impact of AI on data center operations, changes in depreciation timelines, and the utilization of older hardware.

Michael Bur argues that hyperscalers are inflating their earnings by extending the useful life of their data centers, effectively cooking the books. He cites Google's changes in depreciation schedules, noting that in Q1 of 2021, Google extended the life of servers from three to four years and networking equipment from three to five years.

The conversation highlights how data centers have evolved from data storage and transfer systems to data processing centers due to the AI boom. This shift has led to increased investment in processors rather than traditional storage solutions.

Additionally, the episode features insights from industry contacts who confirm that older TPUs and GPUs are still in use at full capacity, supporting the argument for longer depreciation schedules.

TLDR

Michael Bur's claims about hyperscalers inflating earnings through extended depreciation schedules are examined, focusing on AI's impact on data centers.

Episode

1:34
00:00:00
And I actually think Michael Bur's got this wrong. And so what Michael Bur is saying is that all of these hyperscalers
00:00:05
have extended their depreciation schedule or the useful life of their data centers by roughly 2x which cuts
00:00:13
the operating costs in half when they report it in earnings and so it's making their earnings inflate. So he's claiming
00:00:18
they're cooking the books. Google first made this change in Q1 of 21 where they said the servers are now going from 3 to
00:00:25
four years. The chart shows the combination of servers and networking equipment separately. In 2021, Google
00:00:31
took networking equipment from 3 to 5 years and then in 2023 they took it from 5 to six years. And so this is a result
00:00:36
of this effort where they went in and did an analysis. So what happened? What happened in the data centers is that the
00:00:42
data centers transitioned from being primarily data storage and data transfer systems where you would use hard drives
00:00:49
and RAM and memory to store data and then transmit it back out to being data processing centers because of the AI
00:00:57
boom. So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are going into data centers were
00:01:03
allocated towards chips from data storage which initially was hard drives. And then suddenly when you put these
00:01:08
processors in to process the data to do AI, that's the majority of the spend and
00:01:13
the majority of the energy is going towards the processors. I made some calls and I checked around with some
00:01:18
other friends and everyone says the same thing that these seven and 8year-old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the
00:01:23
data centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% utilization. So that actually justifies and validates
00:01:29
the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter.

Episode Highlights

  • Hyperscalers' Financial Practices
    Michael Bur claims hyperscalers are inflating earnings by manipulating depreciation schedules.
    “They're cooking the books.”
    @ 00m 17s
    November 19, 2025
  • Data Centers Transition to AI
    Data centers evolved from storage to processing centers due to the AI boom.
    “What happened in the data centers?”
    @ 00m 40s
    November 19, 2025

Episode Quotes

  • They're cooking the books.
    David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong
  • What happened in the data centers?
    David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong
  • These seven and eight-year-old TPUs and GPUs are still being used.
    David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong

Key Moments

  • Cooking the books00:17
  • Data center evolution00:40
  • Old tech still in use01:18