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all right everybody welcome back to the all-in podcast our incredible comedian celebrity guest
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got sick at the last minute today and didn't make it we won't say who it is but my Lord when he comes on this show
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you are going to laugh your ass off because he's awesome I like the comedians I think that their takes on
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society and culture are pretty interesting I think do you think it will work in our format what's your
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prediction here we've never done it I think the quality of the show is best when it's less just people doing takes
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and it's more the back and forth banter so yeah that's what I'm always trying to
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do is get the ball to go around the horn and get some real dialogue going here but uh you know sometimes people feel
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passionate with me again this week on the all-in podcast David freeberg and shth poopaa my name is Jason cakenis you
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can follow me on x.com Jason he's choth and he's why why can't I why can't I make fun of you in the replies on
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Twitter anymore oh because AB apply to you no what I did was my replies were so many
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Maga lunatics and crypto scams that I had no choice but to like I had to do something because I would have like 500
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replies to every single one and I put it on subscription and I said if you want a
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reply it's $3 a month now 1,500 lunatics signed up so I did I did so I could troll it just so you can troll me and I
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thank you for the $3 every month it's all going to char let your winners ride Rainman
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David and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love
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you you want an intro to the show or get some warm-up an about Jeopardy or do you
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want to go right into Epstein the letter from Pam to cash is is crazy dear director Patel before you came into
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office I requested the full and complete files related to Jeffrey Epstein in response to this request I received
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approximately 200 pages of documents late yesterday I learned from a source that the FBI field office in New York
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was in possession of thousands of pages of documents related to the investigation and indictment of Epstein
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despite my repeated requests the FBI never disclosed the existence of these files when you and I spoke yesterday you
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were just as surprised as I was to learn this new information by 8:00 a.m. tomorrow
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February 28th the FBI will deliver the full and complete Epstein files to my office regardless of how such
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information was obtained there will be no withholding or limitations to my or your access my question to you guys is
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do you think that this is much to do about nothing then that the FBI needs to have the discretion to be able to say no
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or do you think this is one of these things where you're not allowed to uh do what they're doing I think it's above my
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pay grad I don't know the law of like FBI investigations and then what if they investigated a bunch of people they were
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not guilty and then they were in the files maybe they need to look at them before they do a document on maybe
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there's informant in there I'm trying to think of what happened with like The Whistleblower papers from um this says
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something different this doesn't say let's negotiate what we should release together so that we protect people this
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says we're just gonna lie to we're gonna lie to you and tell you that you know here's
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here's that's her side to the story maybe they have another side maybe the FBI has a different side we have to hear
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from them right is this just like people are intrigued by the gossip angle of it
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or is it because they want to prosecute people for hurting people or is it because they want to cancel people and
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this is a nice opportunity to cancel like what's what's what's the I think's happen interesting question because this
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thing's been going on for 20 years I think this actually has more to do with conspiracy there is and now the Deep
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state like is there a deep State cover up is the question I think the question is if the chain of command requests
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something are you allowed to withhold it because you decide in your own judgment
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that the person above you doesn't deserve to know it I think that's an important question yeah the thing about
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the FBI is the FBI can withhold information from the president from other folks if there's an ongoing
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investigation sources are like secret and they would be Jeopardy and National Security concerns I'm I'm reading here
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so I'm very excited to see these next two days unfold listen it's a breaking news story we'll have more to say about
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it next week when we get the facts all right it has been an amazing 24 hours for my guy David freedberg I am so proud
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of you if people don't know David freeberg was on I'm sorry Celebrity Jeopardy this week and he had a great
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performance Je you can't say that I can't say it you're right bleep it out bleep it out so you were on celebrity
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quote unquote Jeopardy shows you how much of a bar there is the bar was pretty low they they're now inviting
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podcasters apparently but Jeopardy's watched by like 10 million people every episode right yeah they have like a huge
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audience on regular Jeopardy I think it's like 9 million a night or something or seven seven to n million a night yeah
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but I think Celebrity Jeopardy because it's like later it's got a smaller audience but it's still like couple
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million people watch this thing which is crazy so you were on and for the last four or five months we've all had to
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like bite our tongues and you've been in a full scale I don't want to say panic but you've been hand ringing about your
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performance and spoiler alert freeberg won not only did he win heing crushed it I was like watching this this was like
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better than watching the World Series of Poker or a Knicks Warriors game for me here is my my favorite M moment the
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Allin call as a tribute he gets the deli double and I'm going to go Allin Ken oh
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okay how dare you 12,800 for Dave but you have to be correct in African geography known for its snows this
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Tanzanian Peak is both Africa's highest and the world's tallest freestanding Mountain what is Mount kilamanjaro that
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is correct 12, what did you think of that moment Shan he goes all in and these people
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they think that they're to get freedberg by giving him a question about Africa not knowing that he's
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african-amer honestly like a six-year-old you guys want to hear something crazy so sixy old should know
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that category no that so that category African geography I was at dinner the night before with our friend Xander and
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his wife uhuh and we started talking about their son was taking a quiz on African geography and they started
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giving me all the questions and we were actually quizzing at dinner the night before on African geography it was like
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a Slum Dog Millionaire moment and I was like in my head I'm like there's no way that's real that that actually happened
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we literally were just talking about African geography at dinner the night before and I'm like the judges had to
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have been listening or something but but you were nervous you talked about being
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nervous and your techniques our friend Jason but the we actually are lucky enough to play with one serious
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professional poker player in our game Jason comes to to the game and he coached you a bit what did he what did
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he what was his advice to you well I was a little wound up because I watched Jeopardy my whole like since I was a kid
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right I mean I don't watch it regularly but like a couple months ago I was kind of watching the show I kind of reached
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out and was like Hey you know do you guys know anyone on the show and that's how I got like hooked up so and I'm like
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wait I'm really going on that's awesome okay and they're like you're going on Celebrity Jeopardy so I watched the
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Celebrity Jeopardy episodes from last season and and I figured I could get like 60% of the answers but you get
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there and you don't realize how hard it is to buzz in in time because if you buzz before the light turns on I've
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heard this over and over how does it work because you bought I understand an actual buzzer to practice with am I am I
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correct you did this well yeah I bought this cheap buzzer on Amazon the pressive
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but it didn't do anything so I'm watching the TV at home watching old EP Celebrity Jeopardy episodes from last
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year and I'm like oh buzz in buzz in but the problem is when you're there you're
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not allowed to buzz till the light comes on and if you buzz too early you get locked out for a quarter second and that
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quarter second makes a huge difference so I was actually behind the people I was against most of the show I felt when
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I was buzzing in I'm like I know the answer and I kept missing I kept missing so I still did okay obviously but wait a
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second let me ask you a question about that buzzing thing a light goes on when does the light go on when the question
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is finished or after half show the question on a huge screen so the whole screen gives you the question right away
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when so you can read ahead so you can read ahead just read the whole thing boom yeah then you have to wait for Ken
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Jennings to finish as soon as he finishes enunciating the last syllable of the last word the like turns on but
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here's what I found out there is a delay of about 150 to 200 milliseconds difference between your eyes and your
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ears you actually hear stuff before you see stuff and which is really interesting like for your brain to
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register it and people have different different delays but for me I'm like waiting for the light and then I buzz in
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and it's too late because the people next to me have buzzed in so speed of sound vers but anyway I was a little I
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was a little wound up going into this I called Jason because I realized there's no upside by the time I show up
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I'm like I'm gonna look like an absolute idiot for saying some stupid stuff getting answers wrong which of course
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everyone texts me last night being like how' you miss hoers how'd you miss this all right you since you're bringing up
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the big Miss Daily Double oh man you get the Daily Double 16,000 crushing crushing crushing their
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soul not my best category I'll go 4,000 look great even 20,000 if you're right climactic Moments in Sports movies Jimmy
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Chitwood buries a jumper from the top of the key to win the Hickory Huskers the Indiana State
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Championship what is Hoops sorry no what am I doing you were right I'm so embarrassed watching it I can't watch
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dream come on dude I whoer I know I know hoers I mean come on Jean hman he died today and no one sends me a text being
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like oh I can't believe you got that answer great job everyone just sends the text how did you not get hooers how did
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you not get cream it's always like oh I knew the answer you're need I realize different and I realize as I'm walking
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in Jeopardy I'm like you know what there's no upside because what'll happen is everyone will just call you an idiot
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for the things you miss which is well I mean and let's face it you're the Sultan
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of science you went to an you worked at Google so there's an expectation you should run these people
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over you did run them over for you know who you're facing in the semi-final we don't know until all the quarterfinals
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are over and that'll be in the next couple weeks here when you see a category come up like the hooers one
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right I think that one was about sports movies right yeah that was uh Sports movies like big so don't you when you
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see Sports movies in your head catalog probable answers like Rudy and you know Field of Dreams
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yeah so you had all those ready to go like look I'm not a guy who gets very nervous I don't get like stage fright or
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like wound up but for Jeopardy it's so weird you're up there and you can't focus or concentrate like you normally
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can my brain had these like weird brain farts where I'm like I know the answer why isn't it coming out or I buzz in and
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I said like Beethoven instead of De I'm like why did that come out God for CLA Delon you don't have to I mean dude
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don't get me started so there we there's weird stuff that happens up there that's
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really hard to explain and then you're angry about the buzzing you can't buzz in in time and you're on the set of
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Jeopardy and it's like oh my God I'm actually on the set of Jeopardy it's all real and you're like watching the scores
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very it's very overwhelming there an audience yes there is an audience yeah like a 100 people there about 100 people
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yeah yeah W that's nice yeah before you go on the the show they have you do a practice round in front of the audience
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just so you get everyone gets used to it and I deliberately answered wrong and I
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was like acting like an idiot and acting like I couldn't buzz and acting like I didn't know theed I tried to be like he
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I tried to be a little so diabolical yeah I don't really know what I'm doing here sharp elbows yeah and then I Came
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Out Swinging and I felt like I had to kind of get aggressive out the gate and you yeah I've done that before in a bar
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fight once I was like guys guys we don't need to get in a fight and then like bang I just clocked the G anyway we're
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so proud of you you won you trounced them I have to say the for the Humane Society United States all the money went
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to charity Humane s of the US how much did you make for them in the end if you win the whole tournament it's a million
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dollars and thenot of do food as the winner your charity gets more and the losers their charity gets less but it's
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a fixed amount it's like 30,000 or 50,000 or something like that nice I think they should put the three of us on
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together normal episode that would be crazy oh my God I would wreck three of us were on I would wreck your ass no you
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would not I will play you heads up Jeopardy anytime for money let's play I say we play poker we'll play for all of
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the Allin profits I'll give you two retards twox the chip stack and let's see what
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happens oh my God and that sounds so compelling would you do it actually J would you do that would you do it all
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the profits all the profits I do it for all the profits but I would carve out 25% of the profits for a four-way
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tournament that was televised live if we could get 2 million in sponsors then we'd be up no matter
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what grift endless not grifting I'm thinking like a business the whole point is no I want to do this so that I
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inflict pain on one of you or both what gives Chim happiness is hurting others that's we that's his love language his
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love language hurting the people he loves love language is hurting the people who love him I like putting you
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two to the test and I like to see you two break okay this what makes him feel good anyways did you guys see Brett
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atc's tweet no what did you say friend of the Pod Brett atock who's a CEO and founder of figure he just announced
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today that he's moved his timelines up by two years he's going to Beta Testing robots in the home by by the middle to
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end of this year that's crazy crazy crazy I mean are you an investor in his company I don't talk about my
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investments but in this casos here but in this case no I'm not an investor so we're not talking a book
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here I do think Optimus and this figure and the other this about a dozen of these doing it credibly if they can make
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these for what shamama 20 grand when do you think it becomes something a middle class household you know dual income
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household would buy one of these five years from now 10 years from now how how could they be well I think
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the issue is bounded by two things one is that I'm not sure that the generalized
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AI is good enough yet and what he did was he had a deal with open AI which he pretty publicly cancelled a few weeks
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ago m and he announced his own model and I don't know the details of it to know whether he rolled it himself or this is
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just like taking some open source based model and iterating from it but I think the model is not perfect
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yet to be general purpose that's one and then the second is a practical issue with the robots which is that the
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actuators themselves are good but they're not great and you can see it in in the demo where it's an incredible
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demo because it shows the value and the power of the model where there's sort of
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this Master Slave orientation that has to happen where one model is actually doing most of the computation and the
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second model and the second robot is in feeding off of it and the demo that they
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do Nick you can probably find the video is of them sorting a bag of groceries for the first time totally unsupervised
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which and it's it's an incredibly cool demo it's a cool demo the thing that that you notice though is that the
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actuators are good they're not great and so the physical dexterity is still relatively limited and I think that that
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doesn't allow these robots to be super functional in the next couple of years but when they get that figured out then
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I think it could be really useful because if you have a robot like this that could sort the groceries make food
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do the laundry mow the lawn so to speak it just requires a level of dexterity that's not yet totally possible but see
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in this example what you're seeing are the two robots basically figuring out how to communicate semantically between
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the robots and that's incredibly powerful and it's yet another sort of breakthrough that we need so I don't
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know we're probably like a couple years away but see look at the dexterity there
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he's taking the pepp farms and feels like he's crushing the pepp Farms or she or whatever you call this robot they
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then please don't misgender the robot but it's it's really incredible they're figuring the the coolest part of this
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demo by the way which I loved was they take an apple and then the second robot figures out that it should go in the
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fruit bow pushes the fruit bow to the first robot and then the first robot that's cool there it is but that level
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of semantic awareness and understanding between two models working dependently is very cool look at that
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that's very cool they're collaborating with each other makes total sense I can tell you here on the ranch I would love
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to have an allpurpose robot going out there and using the weed whacker and and trimming the the the the bushes and the
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hedges and getting me wood and collecting chicken eggs like there's a million things they could do on a ranch
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it be immediately applicable for ranch work and if they're 24 hours a day it doesn't matter if they go slow but I I
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think this is the category people are sleeping on and I I don't know who on the on our prediction show said this
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will be the year of robots but it's been this is the year of robots for 30 years
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in the industry and it does feel like this is it freeberg you're sticking with your prediction I assume yeah I am yeah
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I think it's also it's not just this kind of dexterous automation but but I do think
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drones autonomous vehicles I put them all in the same category where there there's some it's
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some combination of mechanical response to a machine Vision system that uh I think has become like
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accelerated this year you need a lot of rare Earths to make robots yeah where could we ever get those from H does
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anybody owe us a little money is anybody behind on their payments maybe The Vig could be a little you know taste
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I don't know if you guys have seen this but there was a company in the 90s that was all the rage called segue they were
00:19:04
going to absolutely change cities and everything and they never did but it was basically like a scooter you could walk
00:19:09
on and had a a balancing uh kind of system to it but they made robots and here they're making these lawnmowers now
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and these lawnmowers are really like cheap they're a th000 bucks and they work here in Austin I have seen two or
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three of these on people's Lawns this could be like you know what was the one that you did in your house Roomba so
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your point freeberg there will be Purpose Driven ones to deliver you a burrito do your lawn Etc and a room is
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like three or 400 bucks I think and this thing's a th000 bucks man this is going
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to get crazy I do think it's it's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems in automation then
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create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system so a device that just does one thing delivers
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something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes you know I'm not sure if
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that's the whole the whole idea of the humanoid is it's ambitious yeah it is a general purpose device and it makes a a
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technically very hard road map I got to imagine some of the bulldozers out there
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are also now becoming remote controlled so you can get like a a bulldozzer that you have to put in a dangerous situation
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and their remote control and they're going to have ai so I got pitched on a startup one time that was to go up into
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Tahoe Hills and allow humans with remote controls to drive Jam off little bulldozers and make fire pths so imagine
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some fire breaks out you send in or helicopter in the bulldozzer no human in it just got a 5G connection or a
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starlane connection and Zip Zip Zip you're doing fire roads in the middle of the smoke dense area it's going to be
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really interesting when these things uh get dialed in and they're getting every day I'm going to ask Brett to be a ba
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Alpha tester of one of these robots in my house and then we'll go and do we'll do a segment that would be great excuse
00:21:01
me robot can I get some more morels toot sweet morels let's talk about stripe I thought the the report was really good
00:21:10
we had the cison brothers on last week they crushed it great job to them and then um here is a quick summary so uh in
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terms of processing volume Aden 1.34 trillion stripe at 1.4 trillion I mean that's incredible that they're both in
00:21:24
the almost the same exact space one's growing 33% strip going 38% valuation Aden 56 they're public stripe private
00:21:33
91.5 billion I guess that's the private Market premium employee account very interesting here since we've been
00:21:39
talking about uh Jamie Diamond's uh rant last week Aden 4.3 th000 stripe over 8,000 and uh both are profitable aden's
00:21:48
got a billy in iida which is extraordinary but stripe has a higher margin what's your take on aala Two
00:21:55
Cities here I thought there was three takeaways the first takeaway for me was the value of Stripes ecosystem is is
00:22:02
probably underappreciated I think Patrick mentioned it but he just kind of said it as a passing fact and none of us
00:22:09
picked up on it but in the report they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core
00:22:14
payments and one of them is the billing product it's half a billion dollars a year of ARR that's just incredible and I
00:22:21
think if they figure out Network effects inside of the stripe ecosystem that's interesting so that's first which is The
00:22:27
Hubb and spoke of of payments being at the center been all of these other incremental Services I think that that's
00:22:32
really interesting and underappreciated for stripe that probably speaks to why there's such a difference in valuation
00:22:37
because aen has less of that ecosystem or at least it's not nearly as well described maybe as Stripes is that's
00:22:43
number one second is I go back to what I've been saying for a while now but the the rise of these stable coins is really
00:22:52
interesting the stable coin infrastructure globally the push for a bunch of these National governments to
00:23:00
embrace them inside of India inside of Brazil slowly it's happening inside of the United States so I think that that
00:23:07
was really interesting and then the third takeaway Nick I sent you this tweet was just the
00:23:13
the nature of the AI ecosystem relative to the rest of SAS and what this is was from Stripes
00:23:25
report which showed the time to get to 5 million of annualized Revenue and the average SAS company took 37 months and
00:23:34
by 2024 the top 100 AI companies got there in 24 months I mean that's efficiency in the
00:23:42
market right I mean that's why we're all looking at AI saying we could see a lot
00:23:47
of our economic issues come from growth and the growth is very clear you can do more with less and you can generate more
00:23:53
Revenue with AI so it's it's pretty clear the trend yeah jaman I think it's really clear I mean I can give you a
00:23:59
little factoid from 8090 you know we got to 5 million of Revenue in three months really crazy couple of WS in
00:24:08
there yeah couple of big ones yeah and so it's just a very different selling motion than than I've historically seen
00:24:18
where the ROI is just so obvious in terms of the efficiency that it creates and the cost savings you can generate
00:24:27
relative to traditional enterprise software it's a more straightforward sale the ROI is clearer the revenue is
00:24:34
bigger it happens faster yeah so there's also I don't know if you're seeing it but there's a sense of urgency in the
00:24:40
market right now people feel like they have to adopt this new technology fast because there's competition because the
00:24:47
gains are so clear because in a slowing economy this is maybe a way to accelerate Revenue I'll be honest with
00:24:53
you at least with the our 8090 customers I haven't seen that yet you know we're in
00:24:59
I don't know eight or nine segments of the economy big segments of the economy it's more still about the
00:25:06
frustration that they have with what I would call the software industrial complex there's a big and you you can
00:25:12
see it with what's happening to Salesforce and other big companies is that these renewal Cycles are getting
00:25:18
harder and harder to justify and so people are willing to take some bets and see if there are
00:25:24
different ways in dealing with this problem and I think that's the real opport is if you can find a repeatable
00:25:32
pattern to help these companies replace that big software spend that they have yeah that scales really quickly and the
00:25:43
only way to do that really is using AI in two ways AI inside the Machinery of what you're using yourself to make the
00:25:51
things right so those are things like cursor and whatnot to just fully accelerate and then AI within some very
00:25:57
specific product that the customers actually need that also create efficiency so there's two different
00:26:02
places but the problem with using it in both of these two different places is in
00:26:05
the first one you can manage the errors it's very it's very straightforward at the end of the day code either compiles
00:26:11
or it doesn't so even if you're using something like cursor which is an incredible product there are no errors
00:26:17
at the end of it because the thing actually works or it doesn't the problem is actually when you use these models in
00:26:22
actual work and if you're in a regulated environment particularly it gets very complicated because if you generate a
00:26:29
hallucination in a healthare business and it causes a you know patient record to be incorrect there are huge
00:26:36
consequences there and that we haven't solved yet that exists in regulated Finance it
00:26:44
exists when you're dealing with real estate and construction it exists when you're dealing with power it exists in
00:26:49
Aerospace right imagine if an llm helps you design a plane better but if there's
00:26:55
a tolerance error and that's not well understood that could have you know horrific consequences Downstream so we
00:27:02
we're we're working with all these people to try to figure it out it's a very difficult technical challenge but I
00:27:07
just thought the stripe data was really interesting because it validates what we're seeing which is the the growth in
00:27:12
this industry is it's not like anything I've ever seen before back to the stable
00:27:16
coins here's a look at tether they're at43 billion in tethers out there who knows what's reality there they've got a
00:27:27
little bit of a shaky history and then usdc Jeremy oair is at 56 billion already and that's only been in
00:27:34
existence since like uh really an Earnest like 2021 I do think strip's main business could be for sitting here
00:27:41
in five years jamath could be sitting on $300 billion and getting whatever it is
00:27:46
3 four 5% on some coupon right they could be making 1020 billion in pure profit if they uh have a stable coin out
00:27:55
there that gets widely adopted yeah and and I and I think the best way for stripe to actually do this is just to to
00:28:01
build it and to actually facilitate payments between existing stripe customers because again it's sort of
00:28:07
what I said last week these are all ultimately Ledger entries and I think that the more that you can commoditize
00:28:13
these things to be a simple Ledger entry inside of two systems of record at two companies that's a much better product
00:28:19
feature I think stripe has the scale to do that now and to your point they could
00:28:24
have an enormous stable coin business at the same time they're probably better off just embracing what's already been
00:28:31
built it may be disruptive to try to launch yet another one I don't know they bought that other company so I got to
00:28:38
think they'll launch their own but bridge is the facilitation layer it's the rails yeah but I mean I think you
00:28:43
know this is where brand comes in if you have a trusted brand amongst developers
00:28:47
and uh there's three choices are they going to take tether which people go H maybe it's a little sorted it's offshore
00:28:55
I got some challenges there am I going to use USD see okay I haven't heard of it but okay yeah they sound interesting
00:29:00
oh I'm going to use stripe I'm going to go right to stripe it's kind of like the
00:29:03
IBM you know or Microsoft of payments nobody gets fired for picking shrip I would say so not anymore not anymore
00:29:12
right let's go through the market update here a lot of people are trying to figure out are we going to have a market
00:29:20
collapse a boom let's just look at some of the numbers and have a a first principal discussion here S&P up almost
00:29:26
2% so far this year NASDAQ 100 flat Dow up 3% so pretty good start to the year in those index numbers but if you look
00:29:35
at the max 7 some of them have some had some serious compression Tesla down 27% I do think that they had a big Trump
00:29:43
Elon Spike Google down 10% Amazon 9 Microsoft about 8% meta Apple Nvidia were up to varying
00:29:50
degrees and then coming into our taping this week Bitcoin down 15% over last month that too got the Trump
00:29:59
bump and then adding to all this confusion unemployment is still at historic lows we're at close to 4% and
00:30:07
if you look at the deportations that were promised they've been modest to start obviously they're just getting
00:30:12
started they need some money to deport folks but they've only been deporting 500 people to a th000 a
00:30:17
day and we haven't heard many numbers about the last couple of weeks as Doge has been sort of the center of attention
00:30:24
so you know they'd have to get to two or 3 th000 people a day to have low Millions let's say Cham two or three
00:30:30
million people deported for it to have any impact on unemployment finally act three and then
00:30:36
we'll we'll get everybody's feedback on this CPI up 3% year-over-year we had di down to that nice 2% handle and uh now
00:30:44
it's back a little bit if you remember in September it bottomed out around 2.4% just in time for the election
00:30:51
interesting how that happened that same month the FED cut 50 bips then it cut another 25 in December and since
00:30:58
inflation's been growing modestly but steadily not insignificantly so put it all together trth and what do you think
00:31:04
and then freeberg will go to you I tend to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen Camp it's not like the bottom is going to
00:31:10
fall up but there's like a lot of room for concern I guess is the best way to put it um Nick I don't know if you can
00:31:16
find that clip that at fi but he had a very precise summary of how he saw the world and I I I frankly just agreed with
00:31:25
everything that he was saying so he he probably can say say better than I when you take a brew of tariffs on top of
00:31:33
that we have slowing immigration and in addition now you have Doge I mean that's
00:31:38
austerity we think growth is going to slow to 1 and a half% from 2 and a half% in the second half and so I'm actually
00:31:45
pretty negative for the first time in a while and it may only last a year or so but it's definitely I think the best
00:31:52
gains have been had and and wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction I think a couple of very
00:31:58
specific thoughts the first is that you're starting to see this compression of the mag 7
00:32:04
towards everybody else so this is the forward PE of these guys and so what you're starting to see is everybody else
00:32:11
starting to capture back some of the ground people are processing what the real upside of of the mag 7 is now if
00:32:18
you go to the other chart what this starts to show you though is that MA 7 is really priced to
00:32:24
Perfection and so you have to believe that the world kind of stays the way that it is otherwise you're going to
00:32:31
have some amount of of mean reversion so I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not
00:32:40
particularly that attractive second the bond market has basically said okay we are going to give you credit that doge
00:32:49
is going to work and that tariffs are going to work so we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10e which
00:32:55
I think is really interesting I think it's very good for Bess and and for Trump and I think I've mentioned this
00:33:00
before but we got to go in and you know refinance 10 trillion in the next six months
00:33:07
so you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we gets a good string of data the real problem I think though is
00:33:17
that if you look back and say what does this look like the example that I would give you
00:33:24
guys is in 2010 in the United Kingdom the deficit as a percentage of GDP was 10% and the UK government embarked on a
00:33:36
multi-year austerity plan and they said we're going to get the deficit as a percentage of GDP back in line and
00:33:44
ultimately by 2016 it got to 3% which is where we are trying to get to and right
00:33:49
now we're a little bit under 7% we're trying to get it to 3% so it's interesting to ask what happened and
00:33:57
there the bond market gave the UK government a ton of credit so they kept rates relatively low and they brought
00:34:05
them back from where they were that seems like What's Happening Here Yeah the stock market the stock
00:34:11
market kind of went sideways to a little bit down let's see what happens here but the
00:34:17
real big thing is in the UK all of this created tremendous dissatisfaction and you had
00:34:25
brexit so I think the question that I have is is if we go through a prolonged austerity
00:34:33
program and the frustration amongst the American populace builds what's the release valve there the release valve
00:34:40
was Voting to leave the EU here it's not quite it's not obvious to me what a release electing Trump was step one and
00:34:47
I don't know if there's something even more populist than Trump other than I I think he is the mechanism of
00:34:53
implementing the austerity I think people want this austerity just the question is what happens when the actual
00:34:58
byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years I don't know what the answer is certainly people
00:35:05
are in favor of Doge and downs serving the government more than I think anybody anticipated people are the statistics
00:35:13
are showing and the polls are showing freeberg that it's incredibly popular when you look at
00:35:19
this I don't want to say conflicting but it's a lot of different conflicting data here as to
00:35:25
what's going on what do you what are you you see in the numbers here and what does your instinct tell you
00:35:31
because part of this I think is getting used to Trump again right like he says a
00:35:35
lot of stuff some of them are scary some of them are just trolling and everything in
00:35:41
between so what are your thoughts here or Market's just adjusting to the the new uh the new team back in town the big
00:35:48
question in the Trump actions is around tariffs versus the tax cuts that are being proposed versus the the spending
00:35:56
cuts those are kind of of the three levers and there's a very serious sensitivity to the economic outlook for
00:36:04
growth and inflation as a function of how far each of those three levers are pulled and how they relate to each other
00:36:12
is Trump actually going to pull forward the cuts that he has talked about or that elon's talked about how real is
00:36:18
that there's a whole spectrum of opinions on that right now on one end you're looking at the house and the
00:36:24
Senate reconciliation process for the budget proposal that they've put forth and you're going to scratch your head
00:36:30
and be like are we really cutting enough relative to what the economists and others are telling us we need to do
00:36:35
meanwhile you've got Elon and Trump saying hey we're cutting we're cutting we're saving we're going to get to a
00:36:40
trillion dollars a year but that's not showing up necessarily in the budget is it showing up in the actions out of Doge
00:36:45
TBD so there's a whole spectrum of opinions on the cuts on the Tariff side there's a spectrum of like how far are
00:36:51
these tariffs going to go you know the United States up until 18 something was entirely tariff driven in our
00:37:01
federal government's revenue and it was a way of being kind of protection to the
00:37:05
industry here and then over time the tariffs rates came down and down and down as we introduced an income tax
00:37:11
which started I think at 3% right after the Civil War and went to 5% for high income earners and then obviously in the
00:37:16
20th century that's totally flipped now we have like no tariffs and a 50% income
00:37:21
tax for the highest bracket so can we actually revert back to a tariff driven an income model for the federal
00:37:29
government and what is the economic effect on growth for Corporate America in that world where taxes get cut for
00:37:35
the companies and for individuals but we make all of our money from global trade
00:37:40
does this the The increased cost of global trade hurt companies more than the benefit of paying fewer taxes lower
00:37:46
taxes that's the big economic argument that's underway right now and it's funny it kind of seems to fall along political
00:37:53
lines believe it or not much like everything else you know like economists that uh that are democratic aligned are
00:38:01
Dem my party doing uh I agree with that yeah yeah exactly and so the Democrat align economists will say the tariffs
00:38:09
don't make sense they reduce uh economic growth they have a negative effect we shouldn't be doing that and then the
00:38:16
Republican Allied economists are saying the tax cuts will more than make up for the reduce the reduction from the
00:38:24
tariffs and that's the big unknown right now um so I would say that the spending
00:38:29
cuts wide spectrum the income tax cuts big Spectrum on what's actually going to get done here and then the tear Up's big
00:38:36
Spectrum on how far this is going to go and so those three things you've got like three very wide ranges of things
00:38:41
that all interplay that ultimately determine inflation economic growth government deficits over the next decade
00:38:48
and we don't really have a clear picture yet of how those three things interplay
00:38:52
and they're all being hotly debated and by the way there's High variability they're changing dayto day every day
00:38:58
Trump's like this tariff that tariff yesterday there's a whole bunch of confusion on tariffs today there's a
00:39:02
whole bunch of like discussion on how far the tax cut extension is going to go in the reconciliation process and on and
00:39:08
on and on so TBD I encourage people to use my 72-hour Rule and look at what happens 72 hours after Trump says
00:39:16
something spicy because a lot of times he's just he says a lot of things and not just Trump like yeah but the house
00:39:23
and the Senate they both put forward their their budgets right now they go through this reconciliation process and
00:39:30
there's a lot in there that leaves a lot to be desired if you're if you're a an absolute like you know fiscal
00:39:39
conservative and you're trying to get us to 3% deficit as a percent of GDP you're
00:39:45
like wait a second does this do enough and the tax cuts are 4.5 trillion over 10 years so you know it's approximately
00:39:51
450 billion a year if you're trying to catch up how are we doing tax cuts but Jal remember you can't make those
00:39:57
statements as fact because a lot of those over 10year projections are projections based on someone's estimate
00:40:03
of the economic effect of the tax cuts so there's also a lot of debate on that which is hey some people are saying if
00:40:09
we make these tax cuts the economy will grow faster than this particular the CBO
00:40:15
economists will estimate the CBO economists are trying to be conservative so there's a whole lot of debate going
00:40:19
on right now on like how much is this really going to cost and people like oh my God Trump is talking about raising
00:40:24
our deficit so much over the next decade but then there's a different point of view which is wait a second if you
00:40:29
assume that the economy will grow because of these Cuts then that's actually not true and then there's all
00:40:35
these wild cards around the golden Visa card yeah we're about to get to that yeah are the tariffs going to be a
00:40:40
trillion a year are they going to be2 trillion dollars of Revenue or no knows it's just a negotiating position just a
00:40:46
negoti so no one knows yeah no one knows so that that's my I think main point is
00:40:51
this uh this Administration is all over the place you know and the cuts are great but's right the B market tells you
00:40:58
a lot the fact that the has the 10 year was was peaked at 5% two two weeks before the election and then it peaked
00:41:05
again the second week of January at 4.78% now it's down to 4.26% today so it's come down by a full half a point in
00:41:13
the last month which tells you a lot about the expectations on inflation and growth over the next decade and it's
00:41:21
actually a reasonable like sign that we don't think there's going to be rampant inflation over the next decade based on
00:41:27
some of the policy decisions and actions that are being taken by this Administration so I would say there's
00:41:32
some indication that if if you were to kind of try and decode the Enigma of the three things that we talked about are
00:41:38
going on you know it's generally kind of deflationary to some extent or it's not
00:41:42
inflation are you optimistic just net net Dave you optimistic about this next foure period or not I'm honestly pretty
00:41:48
uncertain and I'm pretty unhappy with both um the Senate and the house budgets personally I don't think fat too many
00:41:54
Cuts I don't think there's enough action in there I don't think that and it's weird because you hear Elon talking to
00:41:58
all the members of the the cabinet and he's pretty clear-cut hey we've got to save this government is in a debt spiral
00:42:04
we have to fix this problem Yad yada and then it's sort of like business as usual
00:42:08
which like I said when we were in DC that was exactly my observation for every Senator representative member of
00:42:14
Congress that we met with or that I talked to at a cocktail party it was the same it was like I got to get
00:42:20
this for my people that's the goal and we've turned this Federated Republic into a whole bunch of elected
00:42:25
representatives showing up in DC scrambling and grabbing money for their constituents that's what they were hired
00:42:30
and elected to do and it's a really unfortunate circumstance that no one looks out for the better interest of the
00:42:36
US dollar over time and says you know what we've actually got a limitation on us and that limitation should be less
00:42:41
than 3% deficit to GDP that's our budget that's our Max budget and start from there and then do a buildup yeah yeah I
00:42:50
mean chamath I think Collective action aside you've been talking a little bit about this I don't know if it was a
00:42:57
couple weeks ago you were tweeting about the great reset Theory and there's you know whatever that is the third or
00:43:03
fourth turning people have been talking about you want to uh maybe encapsulate your thoughts I think you have to figure
00:43:10
out what the goal is so one goal is you could say that the Republicans want to have consistent political power right
00:43:24
that's a reasonable goal the Democrats want that too right a different goal would be to do what freedberg said we're
00:43:30
going to go and take the lumps because we are going to defend the dollar and The credibility of the United States
00:43:38
we're just going to make sure that structurally it's sound and take the pain that's necessary to reset that
00:43:44
could be a goal I think the reality is something in the Middle where you can't be in one camp and you can't be in the
00:43:51
other because I don't think you can get anything done and somewhere in the middle I think the thing that I have
00:43:56
been thinking a lot about is when will somebody sniff out what the great Coalition is that
00:44:07
preserves political power whether that's the Democrats or the Republicans the reality is that you will
00:44:14
have a consistent majority if you get three cohorts of people together cohort number one are the people that frankly
00:44:25
don't have many assets and are the working in Middle Class meaning they don't necessarily own homes they don't
00:44:31
necessarily have investments in the stock market so they don't particularly care about what's happening there okay
00:44:38
that cohort dominates there was a clip of a discussion at Harvard just this past
00:44:45
week about the different political coalitions that voted for Trump versus kamla Harris the most important takeaway
00:44:51
that I took from it is that if you make $100,000 or more a year you're a reliable Democratic voter if you went to
00:45:00
college you're a reliable Democratic voter everything else is a reliable Republican voter but the thing to
00:45:06
remember is that bucket of everything else is growing faster than that first bucket so you have this Coalition of the
00:45:14
asset light working in middle class and then you have other people patriotic business people and patriotic business
00:45:22
owners and Technology people that care about Innovation that Maga has been able to into a
00:45:29
coalition my point is if that is the consistent reliable thing that cements political power multiple elections from
00:45:37
now and we've seen this before in the past where Republicans can go on a three-term run or you know a four-term
00:45:43
run Democrats have as well in the past it is bad news for the stock market and it is bad news for asset owners because
00:45:50
it doesn't reward the constituents back to Freed Brook's point so if you are going to feed your constituents and your
00:45:55
constituents don't own stocks and your constituents don't own homes or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated
00:46:04
from a massive draw down in those asset categories what do you think the winning
00:46:09
strategy is that is my rough working version of what our version of brexit is right so if you
00:46:20
have many many years of austerity what does it really result in I think if you want to cement political power I think
00:46:27
it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way that's stocks and that's real estate and I just
00:46:35
don't see any other way around it fascinating the good news is I think from my perspective is but by the way
00:46:41
sorry last thing I would say that's a total Theory and I could change my mind as I get more data but I'm just saying
00:46:46
like I'm just trying to work through the possibilities and in the distribution of
00:46:50
outcomes that's sort of where my heads at right now I think it's like a good mental model because politicians want to
00:46:55
stay in power how do they stay power the populace has to want to continue to back
00:47:01
and they have to understand what backing strategies that that reward asset owners
00:47:05
when asset owners are a shrinking minority is not a good idea well there's 60% of the country own assets but 80% of
00:47:12
those assets are in the top like 10% so it is definitely weighted heavily people
00:47:16
do have some I guess through their 401ks in some cases and yeah 60% of people own
00:47:22
a home 61% but yeah I think it's a it's a good framework the good news is if you look
00:47:27
at every time we have a great technological Revolution whether it was the iPhone or the internet now ai that
00:47:34
tends to make uh the most impact on the economy and So based on what I'm seeing on the streets entrepreneurship is on
00:47:43
fire right now no but that's not true I think you're confusing that with how certain people like everybody has an
00:47:51
iPhone that's true but you're the one that's talked a lot about this a lot it hasn't lived lifted average hourly
00:47:57
earnings that much in fact we've had massive wage suppression it has rewarded the
00:48:03
employees and the stockholders of Apple or Google or meta but that's not everybody well I'm talking more about
00:48:11
yes you're correct it does polarize the win in apple shareholders right in the case of the iPhone or Google in the case
00:48:18
of the internet but it does make the entire populace more efficient and the United States more efficient since we
00:48:23
LED both of those revolutions I I don't I think it does I think it it benefits supremely a small cohort of people
00:48:30
that's why the the denominator goes up but does it affect individual people in measurable ways on a broad-based basis I
00:48:38
think that's been statistically proven is not to be true that's why we have the populism we have today it's
00:48:44
disproportionately rewarded equi holders that's obvious and wage earners it you know
00:48:51
have not had the same escalation but I'm talking about the United States and our
00:48:56
place in world and our economy when compared to other countries so I still think if we lead AI we will still have
00:49:03
the best standard of living the best overall economy in the world but I love his what do you guys think about the
00:49:08
golden Visa I love that golden Vis well this is incredible because I literally tweeted like six months ago you know we
00:49:15
should just sell citizenship for $500,000 a pop and he added a zero I'll give you prediction I'll give you a
00:49:22
prediction I will predict that within the next few months after this gets announced
00:49:27
you are going to hear about Founders taking $5 million of secondary in a round M to make sure that if they are
00:49:36
non-americans to get their visas 100% hey uh check out this prediction Nick we now have a poly Market to trade how many
00:49:43
gold cards Will trump sell in 2025 poly Market ohk well done I I think what is the what is the bet well so you either
00:49:53
can have zero okay you can have one to 100 100 to a th000 here's the the different
00:50:00
levels 1, 2500 25 5,000 so you can basically buy the level that you think there's an 8% probability right now in
00:50:06
poly Market that by the end of 2025 there will be zero of these golden Visa sold 25% chance of 1 to 100 177% chance
00:50:16
of 100 to a th000 and so on the most probable level is actually 2500 to 5,000 which is sitting at 29% probability
00:50:24
right now yeah I'm taking the I'm taking the way so what do you think this is by the end
00:50:28
of 25 Jal so you got to get they basically have to get the pr they still have to get this done they get the
00:50:33
program up and running and then people by the so it's by the end of 25 is the okay so people are really just betting
00:50:39
when can he get the first one done and then yeah H how many does he get done yeah I know I'm going to take the top
00:50:46
two I think I might take 5,000 and above here will you put real money on that you
00:50:50
should do that oh you can't trade it's not available to Americans but if there was a way to do it I might do it this is
00:50:56
not uned by the way called the E5 which I talked about on this where noncitizens
00:51:02
can invest a of money but it's a bit of a scam I got pitched on it people said oh we can get you LPS for your fund
00:51:09
here's how it works they invest in some you knowy fugazi real estate thing you have to you have to create 10 full-time
00:51:16
jobs is the yeah so there's a bunch of scams going on about this5 but I said as your president I'm
00:51:21
going to sell these citizenships and get 100,000 people to do 500k each right and
00:51:26
I said would sell like Tes Swift tickets I I got to tell you I think out of the gate Apple meta Microsoft buy you know
00:51:36
one to 10,000 of these so let's say you were able to buy these and you could swap them out like if somebody left and
00:51:42
went back to their country you could still use it you still have the Visa these would become incredible for
00:51:46
recruiting Talent if you got to get the CEO of a company over here and you can offer them that you could buy their
00:51:51
company is that how it's going to work or is that is it going to be tied to a person do you think we got two different
00:51:55
issues here one is is could you swap these between another person we don't he the president could make it like that if
00:52:01
they wanted to for corporations to give them essentially what is a a season pass
00:52:06
that you could swap between users those things exist in the world as a concept so he could decide to do that the second
00:52:13
piece is how valuable they are are they worth five million or are they worth a million which which would sell the most
00:52:20
the way this is proposed by Trump and letnik is it's $5 million for basically a green card you get permanent residents
00:52:27
in the United States you get to live here permanently yeah they're getting rid of the E5 program after this that's
00:52:33
their proposal and so here's here's the MTH let me ask you guys a question Jamal
00:52:37
jakal how many people in the world have a net worth above a 100 million oh above a
00:52:48
hundred uh well we know that there are like 5,000 four or 5,000 billionaires is the estimate I think globally so a
00:52:56
millionaire well I think that there's a lot there's a lot of hidden billionaires
00:53:01
so I would Russia and China even in America I would guess that there's at least 10 or 15,000 billionaires in the
00:53:07
world 100 millionaire and so then as a s probably 50,000 that's what I said 28,000 40% of
00:53:17
whom are in the US which means there's 17,000 who knows that number is real come on yeah these these numbers are all
00:53:23
made up so I I you know how many Russian oligarchs have $100 million a l okay so whatever fudge Factor you
00:53:30
want 17,000 is the reported number of 100 millionaires outside the US do you think that that's the cut off for people
00:53:37
that would spend five million and then what percent of them would buy a US green card for $5 million oh I think
00:53:43
people with 20 million who are overseas in Venezuela or the Middle East would spend 5 million on it if it was a path
00:53:49
to them becoming a US citizen you advertise that over a lifetime you could make twice as much money living here so
00:53:54
I think the numbers like if you had $20 million you would give 25% of your current net worth to get into the US of
00:53:59
course you're going to buy a house here worth 10 million and Donald Trump said that you would not have to pay any tax
00:54:06
on foreign assets right right easy peasy it's a True Green Card yeah that is real
00:54:13
no no no a real green card is what I had which is your Global income is taxed that's true so it's worse meaning the
00:54:21
green card is worse than this this is way better so if if I had to do it again and this was available to me out I'm not
00:54:26
sure million bucks I'm not sure there's a million buyers I think there's probably 10,000 Max buyers of this thing
00:54:33
is my take the over of 10 I wouldn't take the over of a million I think you're right on the Million number is
00:54:39
that what did Trump say he said there's a million Market Nick the most probable is 1 to 2500 I
00:54:45
think that's probably right but you didn't ask total you ask in year one and I mean you it takes six months to get
00:54:51
anything done this poll is this poll is dumb the real question is how hard will they be vetted because I think the point
00:54:58
is there's a lot of gray money around the world so the question is can you bring it into the light right so how
00:55:05
many like look I I know of many people in India many who are extremely wealthy in ways that we don't understand and
00:55:15
their wealth is literally like in cash it's in Gold how are they supposed to kind of like if they wanted to like
00:55:21
raise their family in America because now it's possible how do they do that how do they how do they take their
00:55:28
assets do you go to JP Morgan and all of a sudden like you show them this golden
00:55:33
visa and they say great we're gonna if there's a workaround to like the kyc AML laws honesty freeberg you could sell two
00:55:40
million of these things don't think so if you literally have to go through the existing set of Frameworks on like ofac
00:55:51
AML kyc all that stuff it's probably in the tens of all I have to say is this is
00:55:58
one of the greatest proposals ever and oh it's great it's fan freaking tastic combined with Doge okay uh if he gets
00:56:08
this done if he gets do but I agree with you by the way accredited investing done
00:56:14
if he gets those three things done I'm voting for his third term we're going to redo the uh Jason just explain to us
00:56:19
your your personal interest in accredited investing what's the grift connection I'm not sure I'm fully
00:56:23
tracking it's not a grift connection I feel like there's a bunch of people stealing money doing crypto scams and
00:56:30
that all of that would be solved If people could just take a test to become an accredited
00:56:37
investor which is like currently six or s% of the country and then they would understand diversification and you know
00:56:43
how different devices work convertible debt whatever and if they did understand that you could take people who are
00:56:50
gambling in the stock market and allow them to invest in private Market companies and I believe that would
00:56:57
create more this issue we brought up in the last segment about poor people not being able to become rich people and
00:57:03
upward Mobility upward Mobility could be very easily hold on let me finish my upward Mobility could be so much better
00:57:11
if a person who's in Uber driver or an HR person working you know at a company could put $500 $1,000 instead of betting
00:57:19
on the Nicks or the Jets God forbid they could put that $500 into this new product or service they're using
00:57:24
LinkedIn or this new product service they're using and then that would allow more startups to get created there are
00:57:30
so many people who contact me after reading my book and say I want to invest in startups they can't and I think they
00:57:36
would be so much better off putting a $100 or $500 into a startup than just wasting it at roulette great I'll take
00:57:43
the opposite okay goad and I'll tell you why I think you're right it would be great but they should buy the S&P they
00:57:49
should buy the SNP index proven scaled audited profitable well vetted solid fiduciary responsibility with public
00:57:58
board companies yep if you learn from the the problem is most of these people most people even smart VCS even
00:58:06
intelligent people make extraordinary mistakes in the startups that they back I don't think that we have a shortage of
00:58:13
startups I think we have a shortage of good startups and I think but if you if you flood the market with capital you're
00:58:20
going to see the same problem we've had with every Venture Capital cycle or every private cycle which is you get a
00:58:25
whole bunch of that gets funded that shouldn't get funded that ends up eating a lot of people's money and
00:58:31
unfortunately when people are less sophisticated and they enter the private investment markets they're not going to
00:58:37
necessarily be left well off they're going to end up getting scammed in a different way someone's going to show
00:58:41
some crazy fancy PowerPoint to them take their money and they're gon to get eaten
00:58:45
up which won't happen if they buy the S&P go ahead okay yeah so let me counter all that they should buy the S&P sure
00:58:53
and they can do that today right they can get a Robin Hood account 11% a year perfect and that's the protectionist
00:59:00
paternalistic approach that we've had what that doesn't do is it makes them nice and safe and then their $1,000
00:59:06
becomes 1,70 next year and $150 the next year great they learned one lesson the rule of 72 in compounding interest
00:59:14
that's the only lesson they learn but when you start betting on startups you learn how entrepreneurship Works how
00:59:21
product Market fit works and so sure put 80% into index fund and put 20% into investing in private companies they
00:59:29
would learn more and when Uber wanted to give Uber drivers access to buying shares they're not allowed to and so the
00:59:37
rich can buy whatever they want they can make whatever bets they want they can be
00:59:41
a private Equity they can be in all these things that have the chance to 100x to 10x but poor people can't all
00:59:48
I'm saying is if they're educated and they take a course let them do take a little bit of risk in an intelligent
00:59:55
fashion and let them learn about entrepreneurship I grew up blue collar and I didn't have exposure to how
01:00:01
private for company formation worked I didn't understand any of this I had to battle my way to learn all of it if you
01:00:08
had a course and people could go just as easily as they go to prize picks which I
01:00:12
bet on every Knicks game and they could go just as easily to prize picks as they
01:00:16
could go to coinbase as they could go to a private Market company invest that would be better for Upward Mobility so
01:00:24
you're right people are going to lose money but they're going to learn what do you think Jam settle the difference
01:00:28
between the two of us I think that both are true I think that we're all much better off just owning indices or at
01:00:36
least that was true I think the the problem with these indices right now is those are not really well balanced
01:00:42
indices because the rules have changed and the rules have changed because these companies have been smart enough to
01:00:48
Lobby folks like S&P and S&P has allowed these thresholds to creep up and so now
01:00:54
when you're buying the S&P 5 00 you're not doing that anymore you're buying the S&P 7 and then the rest in the 493 is
01:01:03
you know 60% so if that's what you want that's fine so we'd have to fix the ETF Market to make sure that there was a
01:01:10
little bit more transparency and there was more balance but these weighted indices are
01:01:16
basically just the mag s that that's neither good nor bad I'm just saying that's what it is and so yeah and I'm
01:01:20
just saying it just creates the same problem people think they're buying diversification because you're like hey
01:01:24
go here and it's diversifi ands out not not not even diversification just like vetted like mature real companies versus
01:01:31
what I think will happen which we've seen time and again with people that are not sophisticated or experienced when
01:01:37
they first enter a new a new market any Market is this process of adverse selection which is you have predatory
01:01:43
practices predatory pitches that show up and say invest in this it's a great deal
01:01:47
this is the new thing most people aren't able to vet that thing and they end up getting taken advantage of and that's
01:01:53
the problem they're getting taken advantage of it every crypto thing right now so all I'm arguing for is more
01:01:59
education and a path for those people who want to do it to show 5 hours of Education 50 questions that they have an
01:02:07
above average you know knowledge of how private companies work just so they have
01:02:11
the choice to do that I think the balance that PE we will have to strike is there are a lot of people that are on
01:02:16
the outside looking in with no assets and then second there are a lot of young people who want the high alpha
01:02:23
opportunities yes like crypto represent and so free it's easy for you to pull the ladder up from under you because
01:02:31
you're already rich but for people that are not rich and if you went back to when you were poor the question is how
01:02:38
would you have reacted if somebody above you basically said I'm going to tell you
01:02:42
what you can invest in and would you have said okay that seems reasonable I know you're looking out for me I that's
01:02:49
question don't disagree with that I think there's a reason we have Securities regulations and securities
01:02:53
laws that public companies have to follow but private compan are more LAX on that's that's where there's this
01:02:58
distinction so I don't disagree that's not that's not what I'm saying I'm saying when now that you're rich you
01:03:04
want rules for everybody else what I'm saying true don't don't don't mischaracterize me chamad that's not
01:03:08
true at all I'm obviously a free market guy I don't give a poor people invest in I'm not I'm pointing out the
01:03:15
consequence of what would happen I'm not saying I disagree with the notion to telling you what I think is gonna
01:03:21
happen Okay what I'm asking you is go back to when you were poor how would you react I would want to invest in
01:03:28
everything I'm not disagreeing with the notion I'm pointing out what will happen
01:03:32
which is predatory ass will show up and they'll rip people off that's what happens in everyone of and if you're
01:03:37
educated that's why the education component hits here you'll learn something just like people are learning
01:03:42
right now to not bet on the jets ever what do you think the solution is people can lose their ass they just need to
01:03:48
know they're going to lose their ass I'm just telling you that's what's going to
01:03:50
happen and then you know what's going to happen next Elizabeth Warren's going to
01:03:53
get on TV and be like hey we got to fix this put a bunch of no cares what poah has to say that's how this goes I'm
01:03:58
pointing out this is what happens markets yeah I agree with you that is the cycle but what I'm saying is how do
01:04:04
we fix it then how do you allow people that don't have assets to have assets that work for them how do we how do we
01:04:10
do even as as you guys know we looked at the data even the best Venture Capital firms in Silicon Valley with the
01:04:16
smartest most sophisticated people investing in private assets were not able to beat the NASDAQ over years get
01:04:22
that's true what I'm saying is what you were saying before this is I'm confused what you were saying before is people
01:04:27
should only be allowed to invest in the I didn't say that that is what you said that's not what ICT what you said that
01:04:32
is what you said that is exactly what you said I said here's what's going to happen I said here's the consequence
01:04:36
predicting Doom got it yeah here's the other possibility of what happens eBay Etsy
01:04:43
Airbnb door Dash say to the people who are part of their networks for every hundred rides you do we're going to give
01:04:51
you $100 in shares for every hundred night you book we're going to give you ,000
01:04:56
in shares of Airbnb and by the way you can buy extra shares if you want to and the government says you can spend up to
01:05:02
20% of your yearly income average for the past few years on investing in startups and then some number of people
01:05:10
who built those networks whether it was Google's Network or eBay's Network or Ubers or door dashes or were part of
01:05:18
Tesla some number of those people are going to hit massive home runs and they're going to move from the bottom
01:05:23
third to the middle third and then number of those people are going to say you know what I got really educated I
01:05:27
looked and I understood Tesla and I understood Uber so now I'm going to bet on this AI self-driving company and I'm
01:05:34
going to bet on this other company that makes robots and delivers you know vetos
01:05:39
and the entire group of people in our United States is going to get more Savvy about entrepreneurship and capital
01:05:44
allocation that's a good thing I think what's going to happen is not much of anything I think the rules are going to
01:05:48
stay exactly where they are in favor of the top 10% because I think this argument between the two of you is
01:05:54
exactly the reason why it can never change and I think that that now again so then what is the alternative maybe it
01:06:00
comes back to what I said before which is then the only alternative left is just to debase assets and then if you
01:06:06
debase assets and make them much cheaper then there's less money theoretically to
01:06:10
lose per Quantum of investment so maybe that's that's the right way to think about it we got to get more people
01:06:15
owning equities in this country that's just high order bit because if you feel like you have more agency in your life
01:06:22
and you're just smarter and savier that's the American dream and we've lost the American dream to your point in the
01:06:27
earli segment month half the country doesn't feel like they can ever get into the top half they don't feel like
01:06:33
they'll ever be able to buy a second home or even a first so you have this helplessness of one group of people who
01:06:38
are like I need a handout and the other group of people are like got any stock tips where are you making money what can
01:06:44
I place a bet on we're sitting here at a rigged game we all get to play in one casino and then everybody else gets to
01:06:50
work in the casino I just want the people work in the casino to be able to place some bets and maybe become owners
01:06:55
in businesses hey you know I I think talking about the US Postal Service is interesting it turns out Trump is going
01:07:04
to issue an executive order to dissolve the leadership of USPS and the postal service is going postal about this in
01:07:12
some ways uh not literally but they're angry about it and they want to observe the absorb the agency into the executive
01:07:19
branch uh just so you know post office has been operating for 250 years Trump plans to fire the governing board and
01:07:27
place the agency under the control of Commerce lutnick Commerce and for contacts US Postal Services lost $10
01:07:35
billion last year on 80 billion in Revenue they can't figure out how to just make a simple profit margin or even
01:07:41
break even and IT employs 635,000 workers by the way Howard did an interview with Fox News yesterday where
01:07:49
he said one of the ideas that he went back to the president with was for the postal service to the census which would
01:07:57
save 4 billion a year give him another idea which is I think that non-farm payrolls and
01:08:04
GDP that data should be collected by USPS as well because they touch every business you can actually get instead of
01:08:11
sampling with all this error and all of this craziness that we have there has to
01:08:16
be a way for then all of these feet on the street to get us much more accurate information so that the markets can
01:08:22
actually function properly I am surprised that we don't see even more dramatic revisions and that probably again is
01:08:31
like errors on top of Errors I really don't trust like you know you showed the GDP data or you
01:08:37
showed the unemployment rate Jason no we all know this stuff is crazy it's wrong
01:08:40
I just don't know how wrong it is yeah and this is where Stripes data might come in handy uh I I did a tweet about
01:08:46
this and it's one of the most popular tweets or controversial I got three and a half million views here without an
01:08:50
Elon retweet or anything I had a very simple concept here Postal Service goes down down to one time a week easy peasy
01:08:57
once a week there's nothing coming in the PO US Postal Service that's that important two all citizens starting next
01:09:04
year have to opt into getting postal mail by paying $1 a year so you got to sign up for it you got to give them a
01:09:09
credit card or something I'm thinking 80% of people don't even bother because it's all flyers and garbage
01:09:16
anyway and what people don't know because I was in the magazine business and I knew all about this we had a
01:09:21
magazine rate a media rate and all these marketers have they subsidized so this is the ultimate marketing and Publishing
01:09:29
grift magazines newspapers anybody uh Publications advertisers catalogs they pay nothing and I think they should just
01:09:37
double or triple the rate or remove any discounts uh and then take all those buildings chth put them into the new
01:09:43
Sovereign wealth fund redeploy the buildings get some money out of that give every postal work or two-year sance
01:09:49
or you know whatever graduate it down full full year Severance half year Severance quarter year severance you
01:09:55
retrain them and uh just let the private markets handle this what do you think jamtha my suggestions there was a tweet
01:10:00
from this woman who got leak some data uhhuh from one of her friends or colleagues in the government where they
01:10:06
broke down I think seven or eight leases and real estate things that were happening inside of I think it was
01:10:12
Veterans Affairs maybe the numbers are just astounding yeah half the office bace is not being
01:10:19
used the other half is being underutilized it's Bonkers Bonkers they're going to be able to sell 75
01:10:25
percent of the stuff so anyway you know don't blame me here but I think it's like a really good opportunity our guy
01:10:31
Jeff Bezos come on the Pod Jeff sit in the uh sax chair one time that'd be fun to have him on he's making some big
01:10:37
changes at the Washington Post he's lost a fortune running this thing and um it seems like he's getting engaged and in
01:10:45
founder mode dare I say he uh posted to his X account and he emailed everybody that the editorial page is going to be
01:10:52
run differently he said uh that while newspapers once had a mandate to publish opinions from the
01:10:59
broadest possible Spectrum the internet now mostly covers that he said I'm confident that free markets and personal
01:11:04
Liberties are right for America I also believe these viewpoints are underserved in the current market of ideas and news
01:11:10
opinion so he's going to focus on those two pillars personal Liberties and free markets this seems awesome and I could
01:11:18
get into why it's brilliant on a publication basis but I'm just wondering what your thoughts are with him getting
01:11:24
more engaged with the publication that he was incredibly hands off with I was a little surprised that he wrote this I I
01:11:30
I think that if you want to write about personal Liberty one of the tenants of personal
01:11:36
Liberty is Free Speech but he's effectively said that certain opinions aren't allowed anymore
01:11:43
I don't think that that's the solution to the Washington Post so I all I think it does is it polarizes the readership
01:11:49
even more I looked yeah inside of Google Trends the overwhelming majority of wapo
01:11:54
readers are in obviously Washington DC and then Maryland and Virginia Which are the two surrounding states so I think
01:12:00
it's very much a Beltway paper I think he's trying to have a direct influence on the ideas that folks inside the
01:12:06
Beltway read and so in as much as he's the owner he's allowed to do it but I wasn't a fan of that idea because I
01:12:13
think I think the Elon plan is much better here's a fire hose go at it you have to find the
01:12:20
people despite all the conspiracy theories I don't think he suppresses free speech in the least in fact I think
01:12:25
it's a literal free-for-all inside of X it is a free-for-all I we got Nazi Diamond pendants coming from Kanye the
01:12:32
difficulty in X which I think will be the next set of features that he'll have to figure out is how the curation
01:12:38
happens yeah where you're curating I'm curating other people are curating how can then for example like when I go to
01:12:46
an account that I like there's no easy way where I can Mass follow a bunch of their the people that they follow as an
01:12:52
example right I can't just copy it I can't sort of start with a profile those are all these things that allow you to
01:12:58
just take on all kinds of opinions right away and filter from there I think that
01:13:04
that is a really useful feature so I don't know I I didn't think that if I was the owner of Washington
01:13:10
Post I would have been even more extreme on the Free Speech part I would not have
01:13:14
sanctioned speech so it's an interesting point you know newspapers historically always had a point of view they picked
01:13:21
as side Fox obviously MSNBC now and cable news picked aside this will make the publication I think
01:13:27
by picking a side and saying hey here's what we stand for this is our belief system I think it'll just make it viable
01:13:32
in one way and you're right he wants to have a certain influence that's why people buy these things that's why
01:13:37
they've historically owned them and uh they have a point of view and the idea that it didn't have a point of view
01:13:42
previously was probably a mirage that some people felt there was like some OB objectivity but I I like it I like him
01:13:50
being more engaged in it and uh tightening it up all right four the sultant of science
01:13:56
cha our sick friend the comedian get well soon we can't wait to have you on it's going to be a hilarious time and
01:14:04
for David saaks who's very busy the Rainman in Washington DC saving the world I am the world's greatest
01:14:11
moderator and we will see you next time byebye love you [Applause] byebye let your winners
01:14:18
ride Rainman David and instead we open Source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:14:27
with it love queen [Music] of Besties are my dog Tak [Music] driveway oh man my we should all just get a room and
01:14:48
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to
01:14:53
release somehow [Music] we need to get mer [Music] all I'm doing [Music]