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jk are you going to do your trump impression were
you going to do your your okay yeah everybody
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i'm getting my twitter arrangement syndrome right
before we start the podcast i want to warm him up
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this doesn't warm him up it gets them deranged get
your show notes up [ __ ] let your winners ride
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rain man david sacks it to the fans
and they've just gone crazy with them
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hey everybody hey everybody welcome to
another all in podcast with me today of course
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the dictator chamath polly hoppetea the queen
of kin wah david friedberg and of course yeah
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definitely the rain man is here david sacks
he's an excellent driver in the driveway yeah
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okay boys uh i guess we made it to episode 22.
your intro becomes one second longer for every
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episode we do it's just people love it and it's
so laborious you know they don't they think it's
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so stupid i am you have to understand persuasion
what i'm doing is i do the same intro and it warms
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up okay see we're still we're still talking about
the intro okay let's just see everybody's obsessed
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about it you prove my point all right guys are we
gonna dress elephant in the room the elephant in
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the room or do we just move on to topics i will
say elephant in the room after the last show
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um i fought very hard with the three of you
to not post that episode you wanted to can't
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you want to spike the episode i wanted to spike
the episode and i'll tell you why um i thought
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it was not good content i don't think vlad said
anything new or remarkable or interesting i don't
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think we had good analysis and i think the whole
thing kind of felt flat and felt like a pr stunt
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and i felt that truly and honestly and i you know
i made the case to you guys that we should cancel
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um obviously i lost uh and i think going forward
we should have a veto right but you know we can
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talk about that offline did you quit the show
or did you threaten to quit the threatened
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the show i'm gonna after this i'm gonna propose to
you my rules my ground rules for for going forward
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one of which i think should be no
more pr [ __ ] from jason's portfolio
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but um you know besides that i think i think i
hear a bestie guestie is that com.com at the door
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and i i don't think that we're journalists by
the way i don't i don't think that the journalism
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thing works for us i think we're like analysts
and commentators and you know we have opinions
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and so to bring someone on and try and interview
them with a four-on-one format it just feels weird
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it doesn't seem to work it doesn't
create an opportunity for discourse
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and frankly you know when you try and do
journalism in this context you either appear
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like you're softballing or you appear like you're
doing gotcha journalism and i think both are bad
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and so i think it works really well when the four
of us just kind of chat and analyze and shoot the
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[ __ ] and have opinions and talk and debate um
and so my vote is to kind of avoid doing bestie
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guesties unless you know it's something pretty
amazing and critical and we can all kind of build
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a dialogue with that person around a topic but um
yeah so that's kind of my where i'm sitting and
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how i feel about it but we've had a lot of debates
obviously since uh since the last episode about it
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can can i can i build on what you're saying um
you know this is like kind of like that really
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uh famous teddy roosevelt quote about sort of
like the man in the arena with the dust on his
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face right um i feel like all four of us are in
the grind doing things and i think what makes the
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podcast good is it's almost like there's like you
know in a basketball game of four quarters there's
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a time out and you come off the floor and you
can actually just take a second to observe what
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you're seeing and then the ref blows the whistle
and you go back into the game and i think for me
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what makes this thing so fun is i feel like every
friday for these two hours you know it's basically
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the ref calls a timeout or the coach calls a
timeout and we can just kind of take a breath
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and just observe all right what's happened before
we get back in the arena and so you know just to
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your point um i don't think we're journalists
and i don't think we should try to be because
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i don't think that's the point of what this is
it should be for friends talking about things
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that are important and then to the extent that
it's important and interesting for other people
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they'll listen or not listen and i think
these last few weeks we got caught up a
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little too much in you know ratings where is
it ranking how can we go higher and it's that
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the gamification of people's reactions that i
think caused us you know to do that um whereas the
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episode before i actually kind of liked because
draymond is legitimately one of our really good
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friends you know he's a bestie we see him we
see him many many times obviously less during
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basketball season but a ton when he's outside
we play poker together we all hang out together
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so it's that to me i think is sort of
inbounds um last week and then also you know
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last week i was i think we were all supposed to
be on point i'll just tell you personally for me
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i had an extremely crushing two
weeks of work i was extremely tired
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i ended up literally unplugging and not doing
anything for three days straight and sleeping
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um and so i didn't even do my best even just to
be either supportive or you know uh argumentative
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with vlad so i don't think i got anything out
of it myself okay coming around the horn sacks
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do you how do you feel that episode stands on
its own obviously it's very polarizing we got
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barbecued in the comments we got barbecued
on reddit we got barbecued on social media
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but then there were a large number of people
who said they really liked it uh my mom um
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david pr my portfolio manager right i mean people
who liked it excellent right there's 12 people in
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the watch fun give us your candid assessment
because you weren't as hard as these other two
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on it yeah i wasn't as hard as these other two and
i do feel like that if they felt they that we were
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soft on vlad then they should have brought it
harder and they should have gone after vlad and
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challenged him more that being said i completely
understand and agree with what freeberg is saying
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that look we're not journalists we're not playing
a game of gotcha it's not our job to go after vlad
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i think a lot of the you know the comments on
twitter that's what they wanted us to do but
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that's not who we are you know um it's difficult
for business to sex i mean if you're attacking
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vlad and then the next day we have to go into
supporting founder mode it's kind of a bad look
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isn't it yeah i mean it's not what we do right i
mean we we are like your mouth was saying we are
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in the arena we're doing things we're not critics
sitting on the sidelines pointing out you know
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what the doers of deeds did wrong you know and so
it's not our job to you know run an inquisition
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on on vlad you know and so we're not really
equipped to do that i think i think freeburg is
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right that it doesn't really make sense to have
guests on the show if the job is to you know to
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get to the bottom of something as investigators
you know we're not we're not investigators and
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it was you know a big story uh just to
sort of put a cap in it from my perspective
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you know i'm always supportive of my guys i try
to be supportive of whoever i invest in and i
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try to give them the benefit of doubt and this
is a situation where you know people are upset
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there were mistakes that were made and so i
think anything other than demolishing vlad
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is considered by some constituency as a failure
right and so what are we supposed to do here i
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can't be trashing my own company that i'm an
investor and a supporter of and founders who i
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believe in it just it would well i think there was
a moment there was a moment in the pod jason where
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i think actually uh so on the whole i thought
vlad did it did a good job in accomplishing his
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objective on our pod which was the same objective
he had in front of congress which was basically
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to run out the clock without saying very much you
know and uh you know he actually whoever prepped
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him for for congress did a pretty good job because
he testified for five hours and said nothing
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quotable you know which which is pretty much kind
of the goal during that situation it's kind of
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the goal for your head down yeah exactly so but
there was a moment in the pod last week where i
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think vlad got himself in a little bit of trouble
freeburg did ask actually a pretty tough question
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about the guy in the street who who had lost all
of his life savings how would vlad respond to that
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he made this claim well i saved that person money
because i shut down trading at the high and then
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we pointed out no i mean it was a high because
you shut down trading you have the causation
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backwards and then you you ran and said whoa whoa
whoa whoa you know well my guy was on the floor i
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got to pick him up what are you talking about i
called the timeout i got in there but let's yeah
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exactly yeah all right let's move on let's see do
we talk about the insanely high profile guest that
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was planned for march 5th that just canceled on us
no no we should we should talk to you do we put it
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on the tab because i you know this this the other
thing about protocol i'll just say freeburg is
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if we have a guest on you cannot just spike the
guests if they took the time to be on that was my
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unless you tell them before they come on i may
say we might spike it if it doesn't if we don't
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like it yeah do they get that right none of us do
this for a profession none of us are getting paid
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we don't have any advertisers like i completely
agree we're not here to get a tr machine for
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people i mean vlad had his friggin pr woman
sitting on the zoom call while we were doing it
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last week you know like i just don't think that's
a little inside baseball that got interesting i
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think explain what happened when well no we don't
have to go there jason i just think i just think
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what freebrook says is right like we we do this we
don't make any money from it we do it because we
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like to talk we i think we all learn from it
i think other folks enjoy it they learn from
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it but i do think that freeberg's right we're not
going to be used as a shill i think we're learning
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i think we're learning what the ground rules
should be just like any other business vlad's
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made mistakes he's going to change we've made
some mistakes and we're iterating and i think one
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positive iteration that freeberg has proposed is
if any one of us don't like an episode because we
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think it's basically moving away from our values
we should be able to spike it and i i support that
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i support it generally but i don't like the idea
of inviting a guest on and then it doesn't go well
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and then telling you know from our perspective
it makes us look bad and then we tell the guests
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well you came out that's good and we came out down
there we're killing you no no i don't think that's
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the point i think what freeberg says is like
look this is not for to be a marketing thing and
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so we're going to ask things that are exposed that
are about having a real conversation where there's
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real honesty and if you're going to just be there
and bat around as sac said to run the clock out
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then we're just gonna spike fair enough fair
enough i think if that's communicated ahead i'm
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okay by the way come with your a game and this
is a great segue to talk about what actually we
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were a person that was gonna come on and realize
that they probably were going to get so pilloried
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um that they basically spiked themselves
uh is yeah they opted out jessa boudin the
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the district attorney of san francisco tell tell
the guys what happened sex well no we we invited
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him to come on the podcast no no we didn't
invite him to come he an intermediary said
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that she could get him on the pod would we like to
have him on the pod we said we discussed that we
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said sure have chested on and then go from there
sex we didn't like seek him out he was well okay
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so he he great so he but he agreed to be on the
show and then you our scheduler got an email out
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of the blue like a day or two ago saying sorry
he's not coming on the show no explanation right
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isn't that what happened yeah that's basically
it i mean so look here's what i would say is um
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chaser mr district attorney you don't have to come
on the show but i will challenge you to a debate
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anytime anyplace any format on your policies
in san francisco so if you have if you have
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the huevos to engage in a debate i am ready and i
thought chaser was a guy who had a little bit of
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courage i mean there was that night when people
were discussing the situation in san francisco
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and on clubhouse and he jumped into the room so
i thought this was a guy who had some cajones
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so chase if you have if you have the hotspot
if you have the cajones if you have the huevos
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let's debate let's talk about your policies and
by the way he's an expert this is what he does
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you know he's an expert isn't he a defense
attorney sacks you're going to have a
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he was a public defender he should he
should mop the floor with me i'm just some
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shallow tech bro yeah tech bro who doesn't
know anything who he can easily demonize
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so i would say come on let's go let's do a
debate i'll agree to whatever format you want
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but we need to talk about what's happening in
san francisco because crime is out of control
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and it's his fault trigger the young
spielberg rain man song right about
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we should talk about what's happening in san
francisco okay so since since the last pod
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there there has been another victim
um sharia muslim who was a young
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young man from from originally from kenya
who he came to the united states for college
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just like hannah abe uh who was killed on new
year's eve uh he went to dartmouth all of his
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advisers said he was brilliant he had a young
wife and a three-year-old baby he was in san
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francisco for 10 days goes out running and
gets hit gets gets killed by another drugged
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out hit and run driver who had been uh named um uh
let's say i think it was uh jerry jerry oli adams
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or something like that um i don't have the the
guy's name but he was arrested four or five times
00:14:04
in the last year and he was released every single
time by boudin's office it's it's just like the
00:14:10
new year's eve story where you had this repeat
offender troy mcallister hit you know he was he
00:14:17
had stolen a car he was fleeing another crime he
had committed he was on drugs and he killed hannah
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abbey and elizabeth platt and this was this was
another case where he was caught five times over
00:14:29
the past year and every single time he was not
charged by buda and he was just let go and so we
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have this case we have a district attorney who
doesn't want to prosecute people his agenda is
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decarceration it's like a fire chief who doesn't
believe in using water yeah and he is part of the
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burn it all down party yeah let me challenge you
with the argument he might make which i think i've
00:14:51
heard him make a few times um which is really
um a position on the criminal justice system
00:14:59
not necessarily on local prosecution but really
what he says is once um you know once someone ends
00:15:07
up in the criminal justice system in the united
states it causes this cycle of recurrence and the
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cycle of repeat that is very difficult to get out
it basically minimizes the opportunity for reform
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for an individual for a criminal to to reform
themselves and to have a shot at being a
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successful member of society again in the future
and the objective is find other ways to to kind of
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accelerate reform and not use incarceration as
the only tool in the toolbox what is um you know
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what is the the argument back to him when he makes
that point because i've heard him make that point
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a number of times and how do you kind of move
past that uh that point with him yeah so so the
00:15:47
the i'm not saying that incarceration is the only
answer but boudin's only answer is decarceration
00:15:54
he doesn't want to prosecute anyone he doesn't
want to lock anybody up and we see the results
00:15:58
immediately in this community you have these
repeat offenders now killing people they should
00:16:04
have been locked up it's you know boudin's always
putting forth these elaborate theories this is
00:16:12
you know the the central chronicle an article
about it about why these crimes occur and he
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never wants to put the fault on the people who
are actually perpetrating the crimes it's always
00:16:20
economic desperation he just put afford
a theory that a decline in tourism
00:16:25
is causing uh people to commit more uh home
invasions you know he he never wants to yes this
00:16:31
is in the service of chronic article here i'll put
it up on this i mean it's crazy i mean the other
00:16:35
thing you left out david i'll say is and this was
really you know hits home to anybody with kids
00:16:41
is a food driver for doordash not that it
matters which service but uh was in san
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francisco's pacific heights neighborhood which
is the safest and most elite neighborhood uh
00:16:52
in it's you know the beverly hills or bel air
of san francisco and his car was carjacked with
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his four-year-old daughter and two-year-old boy
inside now of course you should not be leaving two
00:17:04
kids in the car putting that aside that mistake
which i'm sure this father is suffering over but
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he needed to make deliveries obviously he
made a mistake of leaving the kids in the car
00:17:15
but we all got an amber alert last week on our
phones i mean this is the level of lawlessness
00:17:21
it's turned into escape from new york level
gotham city level chaos and the criminals know
00:17:28
they will not be prosecuted and this is the
key criminal justice problem here if you say
00:17:34
you are not going to prosecute crime and you
demonstrate to the hardest core faction of
00:17:39
criminals that you don't prosecute they're going
to take advantage of that weakness and and that's
00:17:44
what's happening let me take the counterpoint
just for a second just so we can construct
00:17:49
what the other side of the argument looks like the
other side of the argument says okay these folks
00:17:53
are largely you know engaged in an enormous amount
of petty crime to support their drug habit right
00:17:59
i think that's probably the and that you know
underneath that is just an explosion uh of opioids
00:18:06
and fentanyl and whatnot underneath that is sort
of economic uncertainty that's been compounding
00:18:12
and just basically crusting over um and so folks
would say okay these guys are a victim of a much
00:18:19
broader economic malaise that needs to get fixed
i'm just i'm just you know you're shaking your
00:18:23
head jason but i'm just saying i think that
that's where the trail of breadcrumbs grows
00:18:26
in the counter in the counter in the in in the
counter argument so well th th these are these are
00:18:32
the types of arguments that chaser makes in order
to um obfuscate and disguise that his real agenda
00:18:40
is basically radical decarceration you know
he's got this this childhood background
00:18:45
where his parents went to jail when he was just a
baby and he grew up he says his earliest memories
00:18:50
are visiting his parents in jail and it profoundly
affected his political views and now we have to
00:18:55
suffer through this we're suffering for his
childhood trauma here's his childhood trauma
00:19:00
and so so tremoth you're right about deeper causes
but it doesn't excuse the need to lock people up
00:19:08
when they are dangerous to the community and it's
not just petty crime i mean let's go through the
00:19:13
actions he's taken as da okay so first week on the
job just about he abolished the whole cash bail
00:19:19
system okay which voters in november just voted uh
in with prop 25 to affirm so voters of california
00:19:28
want the cash bail system because it keeps
criminals locked up what chase has said is that
00:19:32
he would replace cash bail with an algorithm well
what exactly is that algorithm he won't explain
00:19:39
well he won't submit to third party audit there
is no algorithm they're just letting people go
00:19:43
okay then the next thing he did was fire seven
veteran prosecutors in the da's office who weren't
00:19:50
on board with his agenda these are people who
have spent their whole lives prosecuting murders
00:19:56
rapes i mean hardcore crime and it takes years of
experience to learn how to be a prosecutor like
00:20:02
that so for him to just purge this office of these
veteran prosecutors is a disaster for the city
00:20:09
i've been talking to people who used to work in
the da's office and they tell me that the problem
00:20:14
goes much deeper than that that in addition to
these seven veterans he purged over 30 prosecutors
00:20:20
which is about a quarter of the whole office
have left under his reign because they don't like
00:20:24
working for him so you know and he complains about
being short-staffed he says a lot that he can't
00:20:31
you know prosecute everyone needs to be prosecuted
he's so stuff the reason he's short staff is no
00:20:34
one wants to work for him you know by the way i
think it's worth highlighting this guy was elected
00:20:39
right so the the the city the voters in the city
runoff i understand right he won by something
00:20:44
like 2000 votes it was a tiny tiny number of votes
regardless people voted him in on a platform that
00:20:50
he very clearly articulated and is now realizing
in office so there's something about that platform
00:20:56
that i think is worth noting was and is appealing
uh and and probably is to a large number of people
00:21:03
largely right and no the the the part of it that's
appealing okay is that is that is that we we do
00:21:10
believe that there are too many people in prison
and that a better and a better way to deal with a
00:21:16
drug addict who commits say petty theft is to send
them to treatment okay as opposed to putting them
00:21:22
in prison right so i think we can all agree on
that but but his agenda is so much more radical
00:21:27
than that he just doesn't want to lock people
up take um take troy mcallister okay this is
00:21:32
a dangerous person who uh he was uh he was facing
trial for his third strike okay he committed armed
00:21:40
robbery he robbed a store with a gun okay he was
facing a third strike for that for that robbery
00:21:47
and one of the first things uh chase did when he
came in was basically uh releasing for time served
00:21:52
he basically pleaded that down that was someone
who's facing a life sentence that is the reason
00:21:57
why hannah abbey and elizabeth platt are dead
is because he didn't want to prosecute that's
00:22:01
a violent offender sex i i'm not disagreeing by
the way i think like what is interesting to me
00:22:07
is that so many people um have an eye on and
agree with the notion that criminal justice
00:22:13
system needs reform the problem is realizing
that reform with a radical district attorney
00:22:20
doesn't really resolve to a solution it resolves
to more problems on a local level what's good
00:22:25
and even chase said this publicly which is like
you can't just solve this problem from the da's
00:22:30
office it is a much bigger and broader problem
and the radical action he's taking isn't solving
00:22:35
any problems it's creating far more and um i think
it is worth noting though that there is should and
00:22:41
likely will be especially with uh kamala harris
uh um as vice president some attempts at reforming
00:22:48
on a federal level um uh you know how how
criminals are treated how the system realizes
00:22:55
opportunities for them to reform and come back
into society as productive members but to your
00:23:00
point you lose all sense of safety and security if
you try and do it solely on the local level well
00:23:05
let me let me ask a question like look now we have
basically political activism and judicial activism
00:23:10
on not just the right right people used to pillory
trump for putting in all these you know extremely
00:23:16
conservative judges who felt they were gonna just
sort of like legislate their own point of view
00:23:21
you know supreme court nominees who
were going to try to overturn roe v
00:23:24
wade uh but it turns out it's happening on the
left as well i guess just more at the local level
00:23:30
um how pervasive is this like meaning the issues
of san francisco are they are these the same
00:23:35
issues of other cities and towns in america well
i mean you've got gascon in la who's running the
00:23:42
exact same agenda as chase abu deen he's not
prosecuting third strikes he was just sued by
00:23:50
an organization of deputy da's and the judge is
now requiring him to uphold the law which is three
00:23:56
strikes he will not bring third strike charges on
his own he's also this is both gascon and boudin
00:24:01
now have prohibited prosecutors from attending
the parole hearings of dangerous convicts
00:24:07
murderers rapists whatever and victims groups
are up in arms because they need a prosecutor
00:24:13
to go there and explain to the parole board
why this person does not deserve to be released
00:24:18
and so you now have recall movements forming
and by the way they've also done stuff like take
00:24:23
death penalty off the table they've take taken
gang enhancements off the table they're like
00:24:27
voluntarily they're unilaterally disarming
their their the prosecution teams they're
00:24:32
taking away weapons at their disposal to lock
people up and this is why you're already seeing
00:24:37
recalls forming around guests going into la
there's now a recall of uh boudin forming okay
00:24:43
david david go back to what friedrich just said
they're probably not doing a bait and switch on
00:24:47
their platform so let's just like what do
you think it is about what they are saying
00:24:53
that resonates on the way in with the plurality
of people yeah here's the thing that resonates um
00:25:00
and and it's not that again it goes back to this
idea that incarceration is definitely not the only
00:25:06
answer this is where i agree the problem is budin
is on the other side of it where decarceration is
00:25:12
his only answer right we need to use uh multiple
weapons or tools in our toolkit here so hold on
00:25:19
so for example okay let's take the let's take
the drug addict who commits a petty theft we
00:25:24
all agree that person should go to treatment not
to jail or prison right a non-violent of course
00:25:29
offender okay reason but how how are you gonna get
that person to go to treatment because right now
00:25:33
there is no leverage whatsoever to get that
person to go to treatment because boone's
00:25:38
just not bringing charges he's not prosecuting the
choice should be given to that person listen you
00:25:44
can either go to jail or you can go to treatment
what's it going to be yeah that's right right now
00:25:49
we have all these social services guess what
nobody uses them because a hardcore addict is
00:25:53
not going to avail themselves of those services
i would make the argument that we have a broader
00:25:59
bigger problem with the criminal justice system
as it operates and it is deep and it is complex
00:26:04
and it is friggin awful there's a book from a few
years ago that this guy named shane bauer wrote
00:26:10
i'm just trying to remember the name
i think it's called american prison
00:26:13
and uh the guy goes undercover and he goes and
works in a in a in a penitentiary in louisiana
00:26:19
um and he reports on what the conditions are like
and these are these these prisons that are run by
00:26:23
private companies that are contracted by the state
locally and what it's like to be an employee at
00:26:28
one of these companies and what these employees
do and how the prisoners are treated there is no
00:26:33
system for reform once you end up behind bars
in most prisons in the united states and that
00:26:38
is um you know he makes the argument others have
made the argument that is a has a long history
00:26:44
that dates all the way back to slavery in the
united states and in some cases it's just about
00:26:47
ineptitude in some cases about unions especially
in california where we have a huge cost for uh for
00:26:53
corrections and for the uh the health care and the
pensions for corrections officers and so there's
00:26:58
a lot of complex competing interests in history
that relates to why this criminal justice system
00:27:04
doesn't largely work on a moral and ethical basis
as we might all kind of you know wear our hearts
00:27:10
and look at like at how things are working and
so the problem is everyone sees this or a lot of
00:27:14
people will see this voters will see this system
treating people poorly being inept being corrupt
00:27:20
and they want us being racist and they want to
fix it and the way they fix it is they see a guy
00:27:25
who shows up and he's like i'm a sledgehammer and
i'm going to fix it i'm going to take care of all
00:27:29
these people and the reality is when you try and
take a shotgun and shoot it inside of a room it's
00:27:33
going to cause more problems than good and i think
that's really what he is he is a manifestation
00:27:39
of the anger of voters and the
anger of people that look at how
00:27:43
complex and racist the system is and how difficult
it is to resolve these problems and we're all
00:27:47
looking for a simple big hammer answer and he's
got the biggest mouth around the biggest family
00:27:52
and that's why people vote for him all
right chamoth and then we'll wrap it here
00:27:56
absent a few uh words specifically racist if you
took that out you could use that entire statement
00:28:01
you said and describe trump as well meaning the
left and the right are moving to these polls where
00:28:08
it's all about authoritarian sort of strong men at
the federal state local level folks to your point
00:28:15
david that just want to go and take a sledgehammer
to things and depending on your political beliefs
00:28:20
or depending on the biases or depending on your
life lived you're going to gravitate to these two
00:28:26
polls and what's crazy is over the next 20 or 30
years these polarizing figures will become crisper
00:28:34
sharper smarter you know they'll find a way to
foment all of all of the support without any of
00:28:42
the long tail shittiness that trump figured out
like trump was you know he's like a beta test of
00:28:47
an idea right he was like version 0.1 wait till
we see version 1.0 of the american strong man
00:28:54
or strong woman it's really going to be [ __ ]
scary well yeah and this is this is a guy who um
00:29:00
uh was a fan of of hugo chavez long after he
revealed himself to be a strong man intent on
00:29:07
ruling for life and so yeah he is very much in
that mold he is a sledgehammer to the system but
00:29:13
but look i think and and the problems are big and
complicated but look we all have a role to play
00:29:19
the reformers have a role to play public defenders
and defense attorneys have a role to play and the
00:29:23
district attorneys and prosecutors have a role
to play and the problem we have right now and the
00:29:28
role of the district attorney is to prosecute it
i don't think that this by the way sacks is a very
00:29:33
difficult problem to solve i think there are just
so many misaligned incentives it's very clear that
00:29:40
we don't try to reform people when they go to
prison and that there's a weird incentive when
00:29:45
it's a for-profit prison and the customers and
the revenue is based on how many people you have
00:29:50
in the prison so if we just get rid of that
there's no private prisons where people have
00:29:56
an incentive to keep people in there and then
if we made treatment free for everybody and
00:30:00
had over capacity of treatment centers and
then we look at the drug schedule and say
00:30:05
these are the drugs that are not these are the
drugs that are not harmful and these are the
00:30:09
drugs that are really really really harmful we're
looking at a fentanyl issue like it's a cannabis
00:30:16
issue and that that's drugs you know cannabis
versus fentanyl is like a nuclear bomb versus
00:30:25
like a slingshot it's sure there's no
comparison between these two things
00:30:29
right and but here's the thing no one's going to
treatment when they're not forced well of course
00:30:34
right but there's no treatment to go to maybe
the weight for treatment is six no no no that's
00:30:39
not true that's not true we have a lot of social
services that aren't being used there are there
00:30:44
is a lot of treatment available people don't
want to do it unless they really have to let
00:30:47
me bring it back to where we were before maybe the
right thing is to actually have a bunch of these
00:30:52
sledgehammer folks go off for the next 10 or 20
years you know the trumps and the chesabuddins
00:30:59
maybe they're all the same and maybe what
we're all just saying is enough's enough
00:31:03
this system doesn't work so let's just tear it
down every single brick of it brick by brick
00:31:08
at the local state and federal level all i'm
saying is um just i just want to get your reaction
00:31:14
to that statement guys maybe maybe that's what
we're seeing people are that that is what bhutan
00:31:17
is doing is he is deconstructing the district
attorney's office from the inside he is destroying
00:31:23
it he is not bringing charges against people
he's driving away all the veteran prosecutors
00:31:29
he's bringing in all his he's bringing in his
own people who all were uh public defenders
00:31:33
and have that mindset and people are dying look
we can see the results right now in the streets
00:31:39
innocent people are dying hannah abbey elizabeth
platt cheerio it's an emergency but at chamatte's
00:31:44
point is there any validity sacks or fredberg to
the burn it all down cause chaos and then people
00:31:50
come in and say you know what that's not gonna
this doesn't need to be fixed let's have a new
00:31:54
discussion will nuance be added to this discussion
sacks we need to improve things incrementally okay
00:32:00
you're not going to make things better by
dismantling the whole district attorney's
00:32:03
office i mean come on we need to improve things
incrementally yeah i mean look everything looks
00:32:08
exponential until it cycles back so you know
you're only going to have so much um evolution
00:32:14
to gotham in san francisco until enough people
put their hands in the air and say okay you know
00:32:20
time for a change let's go back and let's start
fixing this they are they are saying that that's
00:32:25
why we're having that i mean there's a recall
chesa budden movement flexing a muscle and making
00:32:29
it stronger i think you know we're learning a lot
about what approaches to criminal justice reform
00:32:34
work and what approaches do not work and it is
clear that a local only non-prosecution position
00:32:40
is not going to work with respect to both criminal
justice reform and the satisfaction of the society
00:32:45
at large um and we're realizing that and i think
we are inevitably i mean there's so many people
00:32:49
that are up in arms we are inevitably going
to cycle back the other way at some point very
00:32:52
soon here yeah and honestly i think you guys
are over intellectualizing this a little bit
00:32:57
you know when when sharia uh died because he got
hit by by that repeat offender they asked his
00:33:04
uh wife who's responsible for this she said very
clearly the d.a that is who is responsible and
00:33:11
she's right let's stop over intellectualizing
this i know the problems are big and complicated
00:33:17
frankly people like chase up prey on that because
they can kind of obscure what they're doing with
00:33:24
you know some nice sounding obfuscation some
nice sounding words but the reality is he's
00:33:29
not prosecuting the way he needs to we got to stop
this yeah and it is possible to have nuance and to
00:33:36
hold multiple ideas in your head at the same time
david you could there's a practical reality too
00:33:40
people cannot murder people people cannot
drive in cars and run red lights on fentanyl
00:33:45
while saying the criminal justice system is
incredibly biased and racist and people who
00:33:50
are of color in texas you know wind up in jail
for five or ten years for selling a bag of weed
00:33:56
and then we're investing in companies that are
making weed gummies or people are buying stock
00:34:02
in weed companies at the same time you can't have
one person who's a black teenager in texas going
00:34:08
to jail for decades for doing what somebody in
california or seattle or canada is getting an
00:34:14
ipo for i mean this is a fundamental injustice in
the world and you're right that's something that
00:34:18
chester preys on but there must be nuance here
where we look at each individual situation say
00:34:24
what are the ways to solve the problem surgically
not with a shotgun to david freeburg's point
00:34:29
but with maybe a scalpel and a sniper rifle do
we want to move on to questions from our audience
00:34:35
because they submitted hundreds of questions
or do we want to move on to the australian news
00:34:39
and facebook backing out of publishing news if you
like let's end with the q a i think saks what the
00:34:45
[ __ ] is going on with facebook and australia
and climate change and this is insanity yeah so
00:34:50
i think what's going on in australia australia
is is contemplating a law that would require
00:34:56
facebook and google and i think just those
two companies to essentially pay royalties for
00:35:02
hyperlinks to to to news publications and i think
this is mostly at the behest of some powerful
00:35:10
uh newspaper magnates down there i think like
rupert murdoch and i love the way you say magnates
00:35:16
it's like well they are i mean you know um and so
uh it but but but this issue is going to be very
00:35:22
closely watched by europe and maybe even the u.s
um it's basically a tran like a a wealth transfer
00:35:29
from google and and facebook to the traditional
media and to traditional publishers um this is
00:35:36
an issue where i actually um side with with
zuckerberg and facebook on this i mean i kind
00:35:44
of threw up a little bit in my mouth saying that
but um but uh no but look tim berners-lee has
00:35:50
come out and said that it could really interfere
with the open internet and the world wide web if
00:35:56
you start to tax hyperlinks i mean historically
hyperlinks and the titles on hyperlinks were um
00:36:06
were were fair use you could you could use those
things without violating somebody else's copyright
00:36:12
or need to pay them a royalty and so i think
that it's it's bizarre to me that that facebook
00:36:17
and google wouldn't now be able to use hyperlinks
and i'm kind of worried about where that goes and
00:36:23
uh you know i so facebook facebook said that
they're not going to publish links now for
00:36:27
australian news and then but then they followed
that up with they were also going to start
00:36:34
dismantling any anti-climate change content i
don't know if that's just just an illustration
00:36:39
well there's labeling so there's another thing
going on which is they've decided not to label
00:36:43
any posts involving climate change which
is part of the whole censorship debate
00:36:47
and um and so yeah i mean well it's separate but
related in the sense that the traditional media
00:36:54
is cheering on censorship but then when facebook
essentially uh censors these links because they
00:37:01
don't want to pay royalties to traditional media
then the traditional media is up in arms and so
00:37:05
they're very selective in how they how
they view these issues my principle is
00:37:10
very consistent which is i want an open internet
i'm against censorship in all of its forms and i
00:37:16
and i you know and i'm worried that this new
australian law could really lead to some lead to
00:37:22
an overall reduction or shutdown here's what's
really i think going on is that with fair use
00:37:29
the doctrine of fair use it's a four-part test uh
you're a lawyer obviously you know all this sacks
00:37:33
but to sort of educate people in the audience who
don't there's no specific uh number of characters
00:37:40
no specific percentage of the original work that
you uh can use you to clear yourself of fair use
00:37:47
fair use is a test when it goes before a judge a
judge looks at this four-part test the percentage
00:37:52
of the work you used is the public confused is
there some educational or criticism version of it
00:37:58
so if you were to use 10 percent of this podcast
and you were to wrap it with you know put us in
00:38:04
a picture window and you were 50 of it there
was no confusion that you were commenting on
00:38:09
this that would be fair use or if you were to
use it in educational system and if you were
00:38:12
monetizing it now if you were to just clip our
podcast like this one website clipped the podcast
00:38:18
and made 60 clips of it took our file and i sent
them a cease and desist actually and said hey
00:38:23
don't do this we're doing it ourselves they fought
us they said we're fans and i said i don't care
00:38:26
if you're fans or not you're not linking back
you're not giving us credit and you're doing 60
00:38:30
clips if you want to do one or two clips and you
want to comment on it that's fine but you can't
00:38:34
take all 60 clips and make a 60 clip version of
this um and so fairness is in the word fair use
00:38:42
the problem with zuckerberg and with how google
has used journalists content is they are clipping
00:38:50
out specific sections of it and putting
it in something called one box on google
00:38:54
so many of you might have said how many people you
know how many pounds are in you know whatever or
00:39:01
what time is this tv show on and then the content
that was made by the ringer or the new york times
00:39:06
gets clipped and they put just that section david
with an algorithm and they give you the answer so
00:39:12
you don't need to go visit that website this is
tipping over into what i would call unfair use
00:39:17
because you're eliminating the person linking
now let me finish yeah if it was just the url and
00:39:23
you didn't pull the headline you didn't pull the
abstract and you didn't pull a photo that would be
00:39:27
fine there is a very easy solution to this which
is if you want to pull the link and the headline
00:39:34
you pay zero dollars but if you want to pull
anything else a hundred characters etc you need
00:39:40
to get a license from that person unless you are
doing actual criticism so there's nothing to stop
00:39:46
anybody in australia right now from taking
a screenshot of a new york times story or an
00:39:51
australian you know newspaper story and writing
some commentary on it you just can't wholesale
00:39:56
take everything and so what we're seeing here is
a real-time negotiation between private parties
00:40:01
into what is fair and i think google has
a really rich history of sharing revenue
00:40:07
the app store they give 70 to app developers
youtube they give 55 to creators and with adsense
00:40:13
they let you put adsense on your website and
they give you 68 cents on the dollar or something
00:40:17
in that range they never actually disclose the
exact percentage but that's what i'm told it is
00:40:22
facebook has given zero dollars to instagram users
zero dollar whatsapp uses zero dollars to facebook
00:40:27
folks they're too greedy and what facebook
needs to do is either not use the content or
00:40:33
come up with some reasonable payment and come
to an agreement with these folks who are now
00:40:37
banding together and they're realizing the traffic
we get from facebook and google is not worth
00:40:43
what they're taking away from with us which is
all that revenue that you know they earned in the
00:40:48
free market and so this is a free market debate
and i think the government should stay out of it
00:40:53
to a certain extent and let the free market work
which is all publishers should get together in the
00:40:57
united states and confront facebook and say pay us
unless you use anything more than the headline but
00:41:03
jason i think these things are interconnected
though right on the one hand if you're if you
00:41:07
have an economic stake in distribution of content
but then you're also then going to decide under
00:41:15
you know an opaque definition what is truth or not
truth you all of a sudden just become i mean the
00:41:22
purest form definition of a publisher right and
i think it just becomes a very treacherous place
00:41:28
for both facebook and google to end up in so it's
almost paying the bell by the way yeah no you're
00:41:34
right google's paying for it facebook's decided
not to but facebook they said something like only
00:41:39
four percent of their their their posts involve
this kind of content so it's just not a big deal
00:41:45
for them the way it is for for google well i
think it is a big deal for facebook they're just
00:41:49
trying to make a point here because zuckerberg
yeah yeah and they're they're being they're being
00:41:54
they're being overly heavy-handed in their
response yeah there's no question about they're
00:41:57
throwing their weight around it doesn't look good
but i'm not defending facebook i'm defending the
00:42:01
principal i mean look if this australian principle
were used you wouldn't have the drudge report you
00:42:05
wouldn't be able to create a site of newsletters
no you could if it was commentary you could put
00:42:11
the link and right it's when you just rip the
links people are objecting to ripping the links
00:42:16
without any commentary judge reporter rewrites the
headline puts his own spin on it and then links
00:42:21
he would never get caught into this and there is
no publication that would ever object what they're
00:42:25
objecting to is taking the photo taking the first
paragraph and the the the synopsis is 30 or 40
00:42:32
percent of the value and so facebook is a better
and twitter with their algorithms are better
00:42:39
front pages than the new york times front page
well why isn't this applying to twitter then i i
00:42:44
think it will ultimately they'll go there as well
i think this will become the test case which is
00:42:48
if you want to take more than just the headline
and like you know basically that's it or the url
00:42:56
if you want to have that little snippet pay us
pay us something it doesn't have to be a lot but
00:43:02
this could actually solve if these networks
that are making tens to hundreds of millions
00:43:07
of billions of dollars if they just said you
know what one percent to the news organizations
00:43:12
to keep them viable just like anybody else would
pay on the licensing fee for terrestrial rights
00:43:18
why is the australian government setting the price
and why are they only applying this to google and
00:43:23
facebook well i think they're going to go right
down the line i think it's just a starting point
00:43:26
but to my point i said earlier is i don't think
the government needs to do this right i think
00:43:30
the news organizations on mass should get together
and put their foot down and say no and if they did
00:43:35
they would get it sounds like what the government
should do is clarify what fair use entails
00:43:42
maybe it's just maybe it's a link plus a title i
mean look it's it's never just a link right it's a
00:43:46
hyperlink plus the the plus the work yeah exactly
yes the snippet is the issue right so fine so
00:43:54
the government should clarify what fair use is
and then if google and facebook or ever want more
00:43:58
they got to go negotiate for it exactly but but
australia is doing more than that they're setting
00:44:03
the price and they're limiting their overreaching
policy just to google and facebook because they
00:44:08
know that if they applied it to everybody
by the way we do that we already do this in
00:44:12
the united states david with local carriage
of uh news organizations on terrestrial tv
00:44:17
so we already have we already mix it up with the
ftc doing this with licenses and the public good
00:44:23
so it's the extent i think the other thing that
you know is going to happen with all of this
00:44:27
is like on the other on the other side of this
the actual media organizations themselves that
00:44:32
theoretically could benefit from this are frankly
just going out of business anyways i i there's a
00:44:38
you know there's a wall street journal alert um
for the owner of the la times who's about to sell
00:44:43
the times like it's very likely that the times in
four or five years doesn't even exist so i don't
00:44:48
really know where all of this goes except that you
know everybody's just going to be an individual
00:44:53
person blogging and tweeting whatever opinion they
want right so there'll be no money to pay anybody
00:45:00
because it won't really matter but what will be
left is then these rules on arbitration of fact
00:45:05
and fiction and i think that that's where we're
going to end up that's going to be a crazy place
00:45:10
because then those folks those folks
then really are the puppet masters
00:45:14
yeah i i i agree that these traditional
publications have like a fundamental
00:45:18
business model problem and it's not going to be
salt like i think there's a like a misplaced blame
00:45:24
on facebook and google i mean the fundamental
problem with all these publications are
00:45:28
you go search for a news article on something and
there's like 10 versions of the same thing or more
00:45:33
100 versions and you know when newspapers we saw
thousands of newspapers all across the country and
00:45:38
they had a local geographic monopoly but once it
all got digitized and moved online you realize how
00:45:44
much redundancy there was you have thousands
of reporters creating the exact same thing
00:45:49
and there needs to be consolidation it doesn't
make sense to have 100 articles not only that
00:45:53
but a point we made last time which is um you know
facts have largely commoditized or most facts like
00:45:59
you know remember we used to open the newspaper
and look at what the stock market prices were
00:46:03
we we opened the newspaper looked at the sports
scores we looked at what happened in this place
00:46:08
in this place facts about events facts about
the prices of things facts about sports scores
00:46:14
that's all completely commoditized i mean that's
like 90 of the content of what people used to read
00:46:18
the newspaper for has gone online and so as we
talked about last time newspapers and publications
00:46:23
of the like have largely moved into you
know different sorts of narratives and um
00:46:28
you know it's created a a marketplace that
has a lot more competition because anyone
00:46:33
can write that as we're seeing with sub stack and
medium and as we're seeing with our own podcast
00:46:38
that we're seeing with our own podcast and i
think that's um this feels to me like you know
00:46:42
i went to a media conference back in 2008 and
there was this huge battle between google and
00:46:51
viacom and i was at the conference and i
think larry page was on stage or someone
00:46:57
or eric schmidt was on stage and the viacom ceo
got up and he's like when are you gonna start
00:47:01
paying us for our content and uh i think that
that and he really screamed at him in a room of
00:47:06
like 800 people and i feel like that same kind of
point of view has persisted until there's finally
00:47:12
some legislation that they feel kind of gets them
justice meanwhile the world has passed them by
00:47:16
and you know i think this uh this will be kind
of some transitory uh legislation that ultimately
00:47:22
the content is going to democratize anyway and the
content creation's going to democratize last topic
00:47:26
for me because i really want friedberg's answer
to this because i also just saw an alert how the
00:47:32
federal government is opening up a vaccination
site in miami-dade county i actually saw francis
00:47:36
suarez retweet it um what the hell's going on with
vaccinations are we going to get vaccinated soon
00:47:43
i said it in december and i tweeted about it and
i've repeated it multiple times since that the u.s
00:47:50
has enough supply to vaccinate pretty much anyone
that wants to get vaccinated because we are
00:47:55
producing and delivering three to four million
doses per day in the us right now and um there
00:48:02
is a just a fundamental issue especially like
i mean look at california you know they haven't
00:48:06
opened up quote unquote vaccination to people
outside of tier or what they're called tier 1a
00:48:12
and so this is much more of a kind of policy
issue than an administrative issue than a supply
00:48:19
and demand issue there's enough people that
want the vaccine and there's enough vaccine
00:48:22
so just let people get [ __ ] vaccinated um
and so i feel like the market forces are now
00:48:28
kind of converging with policy a little bit more
than they were a month ago and the policymakers
00:48:33
are no longer fighting and complaining about
supply and complaining about constraints you know
00:48:37
we've got mass vac sites now in california the
amount of money that's being wasted by the way in
00:48:42
this process makes me want to vomit every time i
read about it that's a whole other separate issue
00:48:46
but it feels to me like we're probably may june
when enough people are vaccinated that we can
00:48:52
have you know a circumstance where people are
going to fly without masks and be comfortable
00:48:56
doing so but i'm sure there will be these over you
know constraining rules around what people can and
00:49:00
can't do in public for a very long time like i
mentioned would happen i do want to say one thing
00:49:05
that i've noticed we were we were all we played
some poker the other night we were with a friend
00:49:11
who uh got vaccinated and i was like he said this
is my first time playing poker with people and
00:49:16
i was like well you got vaccinated like why are
you he's like well i don't know if other strains
00:49:20
are going to get me or you know if this thing's
evolving and other people are going to get sick
00:49:24
and um if you think about what's happened over
the last year people have been conditioned to be
00:49:28
afraid and so even though we're getting vaccinated
even though this thing is moving and working i'm
00:49:33
concerned that we're not going to end up in a
more civil state schools aren't opening people
00:49:38
aren't flying people aren't doing stuff even after
vaccinations and science and data shows that these
00:49:43
things are okay texas in florida or maybe there's
something maybe there's some cases of it but what
00:49:48
i'm saying is like you know the human subconscious
gets trained first and then our conscious mind
00:49:52
rationalizes what we feel we've all now been
trained over the past year to be very afraid
00:49:58
and then we all come up with these rational
excuses about why i can't do x y and z it's
00:50:04
like but you've been [ __ ] vaccinated you're
fine like all the data all the science says go do
00:50:08
whatever you want to do go into a nightclub sweaty
next to people robbing beats yes tell us about the
00:50:17
throbbing nightclub yeah it's like they've never
seen you so animated it's like that scene from
00:50:21
goodwill hunting i remember when he talked to the
psychologist he's like tell us about your rave
00:50:34
did the molly just kick in friedberg did
you drop a molly at the start of the pod
00:50:38
but my point is like people are really
afraid and i think uh i just got the best
00:50:41
idea for an episode the biggest concern
i have is frankly less about are we going
00:50:45
to get vaccinated i feel like the convergence
between market forces and government nonsense
00:50:49
is now going to allow us to all get fascinated
but the issue is really going to be like
00:50:53
how do you break through these rules and the fear
that that's basically because i want but i don't
00:50:58
understand where where are the max vaccination
sites in california and who's eligible like
00:51:02
why aren't we just making this thing
like a drive-through this is where we can
00:51:10
absolute violent agreement that california is so
messed up with respect to how we're vaccinating
00:51:14
we have so much supply we're sitting on half our
friggin supply right now in california 30 million
00:51:19
vaccines sitting on shelves we are now at 75
percent deployed 80 california's got like four or
00:51:24
five million vaccines sitting in storage it should
be a drive-through and you just get in line and
00:51:28
you go and sometimes what we're doing is you know
but in what we're doing now is you got to schedule
00:51:34
oh yeah scheduling's [ __ ] because you first
you got to qualify then you got to schedule
00:51:37
an appointment and then the the the clinic or
whatever's only open from nine to five and so
00:51:42
like how many doses are they really administering
when you've got to make an appointment probably
00:51:45
one every half hour so maybe they get through
16 people a day or something qualifications yeah
00:51:52
and they can find a million dollars and lose their
medical license if they inject the wrong person so
00:51:57
i mean you're talking about 16 people per day at
a site when they could be doing a couple hundred
00:52:02
i mean it's crazy well johnson and johnson is
coming and that's refrigerator stable right
00:52:07
freeberg so you don't even need we now have bought
1.2 billion but let me go back to freeberg's point
00:52:13
about when will life get back to normal i'm not
as pessimistic as you are dave about this idea
00:52:18
that life won't go back to normal and part of
the reason why is i'm seeing so much outrage
00:52:22
about school closures right now california is
one of the only states in the country that still
00:52:27
completely closed all the schools and people are
absolutely up in arms i'd say it's as big an issue
00:52:33
as this exploding crime issue crime is a big issue
in the cities and school closures is the big issue
00:52:39
in the suburbs and if these two things don't turn
around i think avenues is going to get recalled i
00:52:44
mean people are just on fire about this yeah
but i mean my point was like our our wealthy
00:52:50
conservative you know uh friend that lives
in florida was afraid to go do stuff even
00:52:57
after he's been vaccinated yeah and i think that's
what's permeated everywhere it's just like there's
00:53:02
free work it's like a shark attack you know if
there's a shark attack you know at half moon bay
00:53:06
or whatever people don't swim there for a couple
of weeks and then somebody swims and they're like
00:53:10
oh the water's great people will jump back in i
think it's april david to your point of when this
00:53:14
goes back to normal because if you look now people
have been saying freebird correct me if i'm wrong
00:53:19
would you put a 5x multiplier on the
confirmed cova cases a 4x multiplier
00:53:24
5x i think is the right medium medium so if you
have 30 million people who've had the vaccine
00:53:30
uh had covid you're looking at five times that is
150 now you have 60 million people who have been
00:53:35
vaccinated we're at 210 there are 330 million
americans 70 million are under our kids so
00:53:40
you know we're basically getting to herd
immunity and if you look at the slopes right now
00:53:46
what is causing the drop in cases this massively
david is it herd immunity vaccine or are people
00:53:52
suddenly wearing masks what is it there's
complexity because everyone assumes that there's
00:53:57
one thing that affects the whole population but
remember the way viruses work is they're hyper
00:54:01
local and so the local population dynamics looked
at on a scale is where you see the statistical
00:54:07
results of the scale and so you know we saw this
in north dakota a bunch of people got really sick
00:54:12
they got to herd immunity in communities and
then all of a sudden it dropped off the curve
00:54:16
when you zoom out and that's happening combined
with behavioral changes combined with vaccines
00:54:21
then you start to see these statistical things
happen at scale so it's not a simple answer but
00:54:24
the answer generally can be we are coming down
the slope we are getting to a point of you know
00:54:29
general like low case counts low death counts low
fatality and we should be living a normal life
00:54:36
allowing our economy to kind of progress again
um and we're still caught up in this kind of fear
00:54:41
fear um let's just do this end on this pick a date
when you think all four besties are vaccinated
00:54:47
i'm gonna say april 1st june june okay what do
you got free break i say april 1st we're all
00:54:53
going to be vaccinated it's literally a choice i
mean any one of us could go get vaccinated in the
00:54:57
next month i mean how none of us are over 30 bmi i
mean saks was for a minute california's opening 1b
00:55:04
a lot of the other states are opening broadly if
any of you wanted to get on a plane and go get
00:55:07
vaccinated somewhere else you could i mean there's
enough places now that have open vacs or will in
00:55:11
the next 30 days you can go get vaccinations
okay so you say 30 days which would be
00:55:15
march 15th or so yeah i think that's a choice
for the four of us if you guys want to hop on a
00:55:19
plane we can go get vaccinated does anybody have
access to it sorry but doesn't that kind of you
00:55:24
you're saying in an open vac state anybody can
show up without proof of advice you have to have
00:55:28
a driver's license i've looked into this there
have been different ways that this has played out
00:55:32
but generally speaking there are market forces at
play where you know where there's a will there's
00:55:37
a way not saying that you're cutting line and
screwing people over but there are vaccinations
00:55:41
that are happening all over the country now with
people that want to get vaccinated by the way
00:55:45
in california next week tier one b opens up so
anyone what does that mean what does tier one be
00:55:50
it's a total bs definition it is absolutely
ridiculous i absolutely think this is the
00:55:55
biggest waste of time and money ever but tier
one b definition in california is health care
00:55:59
work sorry child care workers so anyone
that's a teacher or works with children
00:56:04
uh if your nanny or your daycare uh people um you
know wanted to they could go and get vaccinated oh
00:56:10
wait our nanny can get vaccinated starting next
wednesday in california and so all you need to
00:56:15
do is go get to a vaccine with vaccines and by
the way they all a lot of them have vaccination
00:56:19
um supply now uh or they will this weekend there's
apparently big shipment going out um and also all
00:56:25
food and agriculture workers loosely defined so
people that work in grocery stores restaurants
00:56:30
farm workers you're saying anyone should have
anyone if you have a chef they can get back to no
00:56:35
no i think two people out of four on here might
have chefs i think two of us definitely don't
00:56:39
so so if you take care of your own kids and cook
your own food you can't get vaccinated but if you
00:56:45
do that for somebody else you can so wait you're
saying if you have a chef and you have nannies you
00:56:49
get vaccinated no you don't you don't saying is
you yeah if you're a chef or a nanny for someone
00:56:55
else you can go get vaccinated next week right
but david what do you want for dinner i'm coming
00:56:59
over right now to make whatever you want i'll
watch your kids this weekend david get me a shot
00:57:05
it's so insane we have all these ridiculous
job categories and distinctions it's just
00:57:10
like with the lockdown policy they had 10 pages
of exceptions for essential workers listen if
00:57:15
you've got a policy with 10 pages of exceptions
the policy doesn't make any sense yeah like all
00:57:20
the like and this caused all the controversy in
l.a like anyone that works in the movie business
00:57:24
is an essential worker but people that work
there's people that work in restaurants and
00:57:28
bars they're not let's see this for what it is it
is payoff to doosans political supporters uh the
00:57:36
the politicians are using they use essential
worker exceptions and now they're using vaccines
00:57:42
as political capital they dole them out to their
supporters so that you know in exchange for you
00:57:47
know votes down the road also the remember the
exception david if you serve more than seven
00:57:53
courses in your prefix you can get a vaccine
so that is the french laundry if you add an
00:57:58
amuse booze and an intermezzo you qualify for
the vaccine there are people going to states
00:58:04
renting houses and getting driver's licenses
and getting vaccines i know about that's called
00:58:11
vaccine tourism by the way think about it this way
in six weeks i think a lot of those restrictions
00:58:16
are gonna fall by the wayside because the supply
is gonna completely outstrip the nonsensical you
00:58:21
know restrictions and prioritization methods
we put in place and hopefully god willing
00:58:26
these idiots who have the ability to vaccinate
people open up their sites 24 7 and drop all
00:58:32
the [ __ ] questionnaires and registration
requirements let people drive in get a shot
00:58:37
wait 15 minutes and leave and have just some
basic principled people on site that can take
00:58:42
care of people if they have a adverse allergic
reaction and get shots in arms we have the shots
00:58:48
we have the supply we're going to be over supplied
by may we're going to have far more shots than
00:58:52
there will be demand and so you know we just
need to get this this kind of nonsense thrown out
00:58:57
the window straight to q a this is from uh
vadesh he says where are you investing your money
00:59:04
over the next 10 years so friedberg you want
to start and then we'll go to saks and then
00:59:12
pretty largely uh you know on the podcast i
mean two areas that are super interesting to me
00:59:17
that i'm spending a lot of time on is obviously
biomanufacturing so the idea that we can kind
00:59:23
of move away from traditional animal based
agriculture and systems of production to systems
00:59:29
where we use a genetically engineered microbial
organisms to produce molecules and materials and
00:59:36
food and that that that system of production can
have a radical impact on on the environment on
00:59:44
the opportunity for jobs on the cost of goods
and uh and things that humans want and consume
00:59:50
and that's that's a primary area of interest for
me and i think it's a multi-decade i think by 2050
00:59:56
you know we should see um most of our goods
that are manufactured rather than being made
01:00:01
in the traditional sense which is basically
old technology scaled up uh which is what
01:00:06
the industrial revolution did uh but really
shift to a new model of manufacturing where we
01:00:11
use a smarter machine which is a gene a biological
organism to make stuff so that's my risk sex yeah
01:00:17
so i'm i'm focused on the area of bottom up sass
which is basically business software that can go
01:00:22
viral uh very much in the mold of yammer which
is a company i founded and sold back a dozen
01:00:29
years ago it was a precursor to slack let's be
honest right it could have been 27 billion but
01:00:35
you did not ride your winner you took the quick
billy and that was not a mistake because it lets
01:00:41
you invest in the other 20 unicorns correct
kinda i mean so so so oh you do have a chip on
01:00:47
your shoulder about selling too early no no no
no it's not a chip i would say that around the
01:00:51
time that paypal hit a 200 billion dollar market
cap and slack had a 27 billion dollar outcome i
01:00:57
started realizing you know if i just stuck with
my ideas longer you know i probably would would
01:01:03
do better and i'm like you know i don't really
need to come up with a new thesis or a new idea
01:01:07
i already came up with the idea 12 years ago which
is to make business software viral i'm just going
01:01:11
to keep investing in that thesis so it's not that
original or new for me but um but but it is you
01:01:18
know bottom up has become the i would say almost
the dominant mode now explain that to somebody
01:01:24
who doesn't understand what you mean bottom up
yeah so so bottom up means that the entry point
01:01:30
for the software is any employee in the company
they can just start using it they go to your
01:01:33
website they start using it they spread to their
co-workers as opposed to down top down is like the
01:01:38
oracle sales guy who carries a bag and goes to
meet with the cio and you know sells them a big
01:01:44
expensive implementation that's the and that's
traditionally what business software used to be
01:01:48
is a is a big top down i t sale bottom up is this
is going in through the rank and file employees
01:01:55
all right chamoth poly hoppitya for the next
10 years where are you putting your money
01:02:00
uh two areas uh inequality well it's not even
10 i would say for the next for the rest of my
01:02:06
life um so it's i think these are multi-decade
but uh inequality and climate change and so um
01:02:14
you know the inequality side what does that mean
it's any by the way the second you said inequality
01:02:20
and climate change sacks left like he
went to throw up yeah he's like what
01:02:26
he's read he went to throw up he's like oh god
here we go there he's back now he's back zach
01:02:46
he just called the security he went and he
kissed his gold bricks that he keeps in his house
01:02:54
no inequality basically means uh anything
that evens the starting line so they if that's
01:02:59
healthcare software that solves
a chronic condition or if that's
01:03:03
financial software that drives inclusion um
and then climate change is pretty obvious but
01:03:08
the the panoply of things that we need to do to
basically you know slow the warming of the earth
01:03:14
those are the two areas huge opportunities
for vadesh if you even care i take a remora
01:03:21
like approach um if you don't know what
a remora is you ever see like a big shark
01:03:25
and then there's like a bunch of things stuck
to it and it's like following the shark and it
01:03:29
just eats whatever so basically what i do is i'm
getting behind these three guys and i just draft
01:03:33
on these three sharks and just try to weasel my
way onto their cap tables it's a it's a living
01:03:37
you know basically let's go to the poker game
and try to no uh in all sincerity i am stay i am
01:03:43
vertical agnostic because i think the great
companies uh make the verticals they create the
01:03:48
categories and the categories don't exist at your
schedule particularly yeah what's that all right
01:03:54
yeah and so what i do in the early
stages i am focused on the process
01:03:58
and the process i'm trying to master here is what
i do with the syndicate.com which is find great
01:04:03
companies and share it with now 7 000 accredited
investors and let them decide you know how much
01:04:10
they want to invest in each deal and just to give
people an idea we are on a 60 million dollar run
01:04:16
rate this year of deploy capital via the syndicate
in other words it'll be four times five times what
01:04:22
my fund will do the fund has access to 100 of
deals but the syndicate has access to 60 roughly
01:04:28
so now that we've broken our no advertising role
no i mean we're all talking our book here let's
01:04:32
take another question um and uh angel is available
from harpercollins business what oh here's a good
01:04:41
one by the way if you want to save money on
car insurance metromile.com sorry go ahead
01:04:46
absolutely fantastic also the ticker symbol
uh what's the biggest investment venture miss
01:04:53
you had early starting out that would
have been a ridiculous return what is
01:04:58
our anti-portfolio looking like friedberg we'll
start with you and then go check out thingosax
01:05:03
i was with um jack dorsey and um in at
this conference and he went around and
01:05:11
did a pass of the hat and who wanted to
invest in his new startup called square
01:05:16
that's my story what what is that a 50 is that
a 50 million dollar myth um yeah i'm not going
01:05:24
to say it it would have been bad 50k in at 10
million but i mean the pro here's by the way
01:05:30
an interesting thing going back to this the point
sacks made earlier and that we've said in the past
01:05:35
you know when square went public there was a lot
of questions and trepidation around its valuation
01:05:39
big fund managers were poo pooing the company and
what's the market cap of square today sacks you
01:05:44
might know 100 120 120 billion wow i mean 125
billion today that's incredible right because
01:05:52
like when they went public people were kind of
poo pooing it saying this thing is a this is a
01:05:55
sub billion dollar company you know it shouldn't
be worth anything more than a billion dollars and
01:06:00
look at it just a few years later um anyway yeah
i missed it i missed that one on the uh seed round
01:06:05
and um and i've just watched with with all what
you get to innovate as a public company it traffic
01:06:12
a four billion dollar valuation it did right it
did like five years ago and so within five years
01:06:18
it's gone from 4 billion to 124 billion i was in
a venture capital fund that invested in it they
01:06:24
distributed the shares i sold half and i was like
i'll just keep half i like jack i sold half at 72
01:06:28
and now it's at 276 and so ride your winners
folks uh saks anti-portfolio which one is
01:06:36
the most painful honestly i haven't missed that
much to speak okay um unbelievable what a douche
01:06:47
well actually um i i analyzed my chess game
with peter thiel and uh actually my check
01:06:54
my castle uh queenside castle was actually a
brilliant move uh if he hadn't pinned by no
01:06:58
i mean look i uh i i i ten i i look i don't
overthink these things too much i mean it's
01:07:04
why i'm in like 27 unicorns if the company
looks good i i invest uh is this phil hellmuth
01:07:19
what would you say your total like multiple
is on all your angel investing like that's
01:07:24
not the question saks answer the question
come on the audience asked what you missed
01:07:28
can you just be humble enough to say yeah
yeah no no i'll tell you i'll tell you so
01:07:32
this was a sort of a semi miss is that um oh my
god it's not even a mess well here's how i made
01:07:38
up for it no no put in half my normal amount no
no let me tell you what happened i did miss it so
01:07:43
uh back in 2007 um i thought twitter was going
to take off i had a like a former employee who
01:07:49
wanted to sell secondary and so you know i had a
deal worked out to buy i think a couple hundred
01:07:54
thousand dollars of shares at i don't know 40
million dollar evaluation or something like that
01:07:59
and um we submitted it to the company and then
they roofered it for because i think chris for
01:08:05
chris sacca basically i don't know if you remember
saka had set up like some secondary secondary
01:08:10
thing yeah so yeah the fact that you know i wasn't
able to complete that transaction probably cost me
01:08:16
you know a couple hundred million bucks uh chamath
anti-portfolio what's this i have a huge airbnb
01:08:23
portfolio huge robin hood you know airbnb at a
billion obviously i actually did invest i agreed
01:08:29
to invest but then i got into a huge public snafu
with with chesky because he was taking a bunch of
01:08:33
money off the table and then we ended up not even
finalizing the investment and your letter was your
01:08:38
letter was published your email was leaked
my email was leaked yeah it was leaked so i
01:08:43
was really pissed when they did that but anyways
that was a decade ago not much has changed i guess
01:08:48
um there is one thing that above all others which
is sadly also in my portfolio so my portfolio my
01:08:57
andy portfolio is the same thing you can guess
what it is but that's bitcoin at one point
01:09:01
you know we controlled low single digits mid
single digits of the entire float and had i held
01:09:08
on to that that's talking about you know a mid
deca billion dollar position so my anti portfolio
01:09:16
uh in in the unrealized loss and unrealized
gains or losses if you will on bitcoin
01:09:21
is in the many tens of billions of dollars yep
mine is clearly bitcoin as well because i was
01:09:26
reporting on it when it was 10 cents and i was
one of the first journalists to write about it
01:09:30
and talk about it on my podcast and i had like
maybe 10 of these bitcoins in a wallet of um
01:09:36
that was a mount gox and it got hacked and it all
went away and then my wife bought it at under 200
01:09:43
and so now we have a joke in the house that my
wife is going to because of her incredible trade
01:09:49
because she she saw it as well um return more
on her it's conceivable she'll return more
01:09:54
than my entire investing career so shout
out to jade uh for getting that one um
01:09:59
actually i i made that mistake too that's moth
made of not huddling enough long enough so that
01:10:05
that is that did you guys see did you see this
article i i fished this article out but in 2014
01:10:10
i was buying uh a land at mardis camp in lake
tahoe and i told the sales guy there jeff hall
01:10:17
i said hey listen i'll buy this lot if you let
me buy it in bitcoin because i wanted to promote
01:10:22
bitcoin bitcoin as a transactional infrastructure
so we went to a company called bitpay they wired
01:10:29
it up and i bought it for 1.6 million dollars
in bitcoin that was 2 800 coins which right now
01:10:36
is worth 140 or 150 million dollars what are you
going to build on that lot are you going i don't
01:10:43
you should make it a grave you should make it a
grave plot you should just well my my ex-wife owns
01:10:48
a lot i hope you know she enjoys it but i'm saying
you literally could have bought the next lakers
01:10:54
and the warriors and been the majority owner
in each all right let's take another question
01:10:59
what's the number one macro uncertainty
or risk you guys are most worried about
01:11:05
for your investment portfolios there is only
one and i think it's inflation but i think
01:11:10
it's important to understand where inflation is
coming from the single biggest risk to all of us
01:11:15
is what's going to happen in the
following order of operations
01:11:20
so i think all of this sort of at the coming
out of the pandemic basically what you're going
01:11:25
to have is like four or five major trading blocks
in the world right you have china as a standalone
01:11:32
you have europe as a standalone you have america
slash north america under biden i think it could
01:11:37
be more north america as a as a standalone and
then you have these sort of what i would call
01:11:42
random you know friends with benefits africa
south america japan korea okay but those are
01:11:49
all bit players to these three huge trading
blocks everybody was going to go and they're
01:11:54
going to go and get vertically integrated so it
sort of builds a little bit on what david said
01:11:59
like you're not going to have you know one central
place where you get this thing basically i.e china
01:12:05
that you ship on a boat to get over here for a
whole host of reasons national security carbon etc
01:12:12
so you can have all these vertically you know
vertically integrated supply chains and resilient
01:12:17
economies you know what that does when you have
to try to build that stuff prices go screaming
01:12:23
higher because instead of having one factory in
china making nine billion iphone cases you have
01:12:30
now 50 factories all around the world each with
their own infrastructures and costs and whatever
01:12:35
and so i think you're gonna reflate the world um
i don't know when it happens but um that's sort of
01:12:41
the biggest risk to all of what we do is that all
of a sudden you know real rates go to like six or
01:12:46
seven percent and then all of a sudden you're
not going to look at a company trading at 50
01:12:50
times earnings and say um you know you're going
to you're going to question that so that i think
01:12:54
that's the biggest risk that i think friedrich
what's your risk facts what's your risk zach you
01:12:59
go ahead yeah so actually mine is pretty similar
to moss which is i think we're accruing these
01:13:05
unpayable deficits and debts uh and obligations
and uh you know all this money has to be paid
01:13:12
back at some point uh that the u.s government's
incurring i mean there's a california version
01:13:17
of this where we've accrued a trillion dollars of
pension obligations that we have no ability to pay
01:13:24
so yeah i mean i think that eventually it
translates into inflation but i think it
01:13:28
translates into something even worse which is at
some point people become skeptical about loaning
01:13:34
money to the us government and the the because
they don't want the u.s to just print dollars to
01:13:40
pay back these these loans and uh the us dollar
stocks becoming the world's reserve currency
01:13:46
i think the reason why we're seeing bitcoin go
to the moon right now is people are starting
01:13:50
to speculate on the idea that that this might be
the future world reserve currency because it's not
01:13:56
subject to manipulation by by you know um
by central banks and uh and and you know
01:14:04
and let's think like that that world looks if
you think about like a world in which the the
01:14:08
us dollar is not the world's reserve currency
anymore in which the government is basically
01:14:13
uh broke i mean that is it's it's pretty scary
to think about there's a ray dalio who's a um
01:14:21
uh famous uh and you know prominent uh hedge fund
founder of bridgewater associates wrote an essay
01:14:29
if anyone's interested called the big cycle of
money credit debt and economic activity you can
01:14:34
find it online he published it last year highly
recommended reading he has a few chapters that
01:14:40
that proceed and follow that talks about the grand
macroeconomic cycle of governments and societies
01:14:47
and it's really worth the read um i think one
really basic principled economic point is that
01:14:54
governments operate in such a way that their um
their people ask for goods and ask for services
01:15:01
um the government spends on those services
by borrowing more than they're making in
01:15:05
income in that year um and and that is i think
the uh you know the premise for a lot of how
01:15:10
governments operate around the world the only
way that that works over time is if your future
01:15:19
shows that that borrowing allows
you to grow your revenue more
01:15:23
and therefore you can underwrite taking on debt to
pay in the future so you force growth and you know
01:15:29
i've said this a couple of times before but it is
the most basic principle but it is also the most
01:15:33
scary and shocking principle which is the only
way you can afford debt is if you have growth
01:15:39
and that forces you to find growth and when
you're forced to find growth you get all of
01:15:43
these unnatural perturbations in terms of economic
activity and market forces it is not necessarily
01:15:49
the case that things should and would always grow
and we force things to always grow because of the
01:15:55
mechanism by which we fund our services at a
government level and that is what's basically
01:16:01
going to ultimately lead to a lot of different
types of crises both kind of financial crises but
01:16:07
uh but also societal crises in terms of you know
revolution and and social pushes for socialism and
01:16:14
and all the other things that that are
typically associated with things like inflation
01:16:18
um and so it is it is the big crisis of the the
21st century will be you know we underwrote growth
01:16:24
in the 20th century um and there's a lot of uh
forces that that make kind of you know bring that
01:16:31
all to kind of bear this section i see one that's
maybe a little less acute and a little bit more
01:16:36
big picture which is the number of people living
in democracies in the world as a percentage of
01:16:41
population which has been going down uh which if
you asked anybody they would be pretty shocked to
01:16:46
hear but just looking at the percentage of
humans on the planet not the percentage of
01:16:51
countries because the percentage of countries that
are democracies or you know flawed democracies
01:16:56
um is right now at um you know 45 percent and we
have 55 of regimes are authoritarian or hybrid
01:17:08
and the population of people living in those
is growing so we we have countries that are
01:17:12
authoritarian that are growing countries that are
democracies like in europe or or in the west and
01:17:17
the u.s canada are declining and or not keeping up
pace in terms of population growth and that is uh
01:17:23
i think going to be the the major issue which is
does china win capitalism plus authoritarianism
01:17:29
where does democracy plus capitalism work the next
question i think is super fascinating uh which
01:17:35
is what would each of you wish you could teach
every 12 year old right now what a great question
01:17:41
chamath uh you want to go first do you have
something that comes to mind do you need a
01:17:44
minute to think about it well it's such a fabulous
question that's a great question there's so many
01:17:49
very personal for all of us yeah there's so many
answers there uh well let's let's workshop it
01:17:54
anybody else what comes to mind is very this
is very tactical okay so i'm sure there's like
01:17:59
grander things but just the two things we're not
really teaching are coding and financial literacy
01:18:05
and those are like the two big i think omissions
in the curriculum right now and would be very
01:18:11
helpful for for people to learn oh i mean on
that theme i would also then add um like better
01:18:19
eating habits um and uh mental health exercises
um freeburg you got any that come to mind things
01:18:29
you want your 12 year old or everybody's 12
year old to learn i think the principles of
01:18:34
uh biology and how we look i mean again like
i feel like we underestimate and we don't talk
01:18:40
enough about the opportunity and the reality
that is about to hit us like a tidal wave of
01:18:46
bioengineering um you know everything in medicine
is moving towards this notion of using biological
01:18:53
machines to fix our bodies like not just a
molecule which is the historical way of doing
01:18:57
medicine where you find a molecule does something
in the body you stick it in you turn into a drug
01:19:01
but we are actually on the precipice of
creating machines biologically engineered
01:19:06
or designed cells and proteins that can go into
your body and do specific things and enhance your
01:19:11
your life and improve your health and solve you
know disease similarly like i talked about earlier
01:19:15
biomanufacturing to make all the materials and
food in a more sustainable way in a lower cost
01:19:21
way and so i think teaching the principles of dna
how dna causes protein how protein causes function
01:19:28
and how cells operate um and and how that is
basically being softwarized and you can basically
01:19:35
think about biology now as being software
uh i think that is the the trend of um
01:19:41
of science and engineering i think computing
created a great foundation but i i think that's
01:19:45
really if i were to tell my twelve-year-old
uh daughter in eight years what she should
01:19:50
consider doing um or spending her time
studying it's bioengineering and and what the
01:19:54
opportunities are that are going to arise from
that uh all great answers i think for me i'll
01:20:00
again move it up a level since
you guys took some of my answers
01:20:04
financial literacy was definitely going to be in
there for me but i would say radical self-reliance
01:20:11
and entrepreneurialism and resiliency
i think a lot of young people right now
01:20:15
don't believe that they have agency in their
lives in the world that they can create stuff
01:20:21
that they can not be stopped if they go and do
something and they there's a victim uh mentality
01:20:28
and culture that the system is rigged against you
and that you cannot rise above which i understand
01:20:32
why people feel that way but i actually think it's
less true than ever and so we have to basically
01:20:37
really remind people that if you are radically
self-reliant you can live the american dream
01:20:42
you can create anything you want there is
absolutely nobody who can stop you and you know
01:20:47
all the knowledge you want to learn is out there
and so so the in radical self-reliance for me
01:20:53
is this concept of the ability to learn and the
ability to learn how to learn and having faith
01:20:58
that you can learn any skill you know even 60 70
percent you know uh very quickly is what i see uh
01:21:05
results in you know people being successful in
life this ability to take on any new topic with
01:21:11
a zeal and an understanding that you can master
it or or even 60 or 70 mastery means something
01:21:17
going around the horn we're gonna plan a a bestie
trip and we might even allow besties to come for
01:21:22
the first live bestie show what is your vote
i want everybody to type it into the chat room
01:21:30
i everybody's going to type in where they most
want to have a bestie show all right i like it
01:21:34
okay so chamath and i both want to go to new york
saks wants to go to miami to see keith reboy and
01:21:41
peter thiel his besties those are his
alternate universe besties by the way
01:21:45
they won't do a podcast together no oh
my god how great would that podcast be
01:21:52
i think that would be i think you call that the
righties the writings you've got the besties
01:21:57
you've got the leasties and you're gonna get the
right i'm starting the leasties it's gonna be me
01:22:02
howard lindsen sarah cohn and uh prof g profgt why
why won't you call it the worsties the worst to be
01:22:09
the worst yeah i'm gonna do the worsties just as
a thing i had an idea here's an idea if we want to
01:22:14
be the number one podcast freedberg do you have
any of that molly from your 1999 2000 era i've
01:22:21
never i've never done molly i've never done it
sure you just made your own synthesis of it and
01:22:26
took it okay great here's how to become the number
one podcast we all take molly at the start of the
01:22:32
podcast and we start the podcast 30 minutes in and
then we see if david sacks could say i love you
01:22:41
can i just say we've done more self-referential
naval gazing [ __ ] on this pod than any other
01:22:48
pod and i don't know this is like even worse
than you don't have to listen to it people
01:22:52
we may need to spice and vlad nick will need to
edit the [ __ ] out of this and spike it spike it
01:22:57
all right boys here we love you boys i love you
besties love you david love you mother david
01:23:04
i gotcha love we upgraded the david's by the way
with their outrage and cantankerous firmware which
01:23:11
we saw from friedberg when he threatened to quit
the podcast over the publishing of the robin hood
01:23:15
no that's why we added the thirst strap feature
set that's why he went to throbbing and pulsating
01:23:21
he was just throbbing and pulsing we'll
see you know we have time on the all-in-one
01:23:26
let your winners ride rain man david
01:23:46
besties
01:23:57
we should all just get a
room and just have one big
01:23:59
huge orgy because they're all just useless it's
01:24:10
we need to get back i'm going on
