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hey everybody hey everybody welcome to
another episode of all in the podcast episode eight besties are here to talk
about tech economy politics the election and
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our lives in silicon valley uh welcome back to the
pod david friedberg the queen of quinoa is here
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from an undisclosed j kell always always a joy
yes undisclosed location somewhere in the midwest
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you you bailed on sf after the smoke you
lasted how many days into the barbecue into the
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orange cloud i left on the wednesday of the orange
cloud and uh took it was crazy took my kiddos and
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we're uh we're waiting at the fires in the uh in
the midwest well it's beautiful the last two days
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here uh also from an undisclosed bestie location
david sacks back on the program rain man is here
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yep definitely here good to be here all right
well there you go man of many words and speaking
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of a man of many words off of seven keynotes this
week talking about spax the uh prince of spacks
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chamoth paulie happened back on the pod how are
you besties well we had a little bestie reunion
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which i think we can talk about your mouth invited
us over to have an outdoor bestie reunion yeah
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and you gave one of them gonorrhea and you gave
the other two well we it it's crazy to say but
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i literally had to call chamoth uh two or three
days after he hosted ah so a socially by the way a
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socially distanced dinner outdoors social distant
dinner outdoors wonderful we had some great ribeye
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fantastic uh cracked open a nice bottle or two of
wine and the pork and but but then what did you do
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well then a family member of mine who shall
remain nameless decided to go to a party
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in san francisco and possibly got the rona and he
tested positive and then i had to get everybody in
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my house tested twice everybody came back negative
but i had to call chamoth and tell him listen
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i i wasn't exposed but some members of my family
were therefore i might have second hand exposure
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i took two tests came back negative two times
in a row can i just say though it's really
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crazy like we have to develop all these new
social norms and you're not sure what to say
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and you're not you're not sure how to react and
it's like it's it must have been like when you
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know you got a call and it's like hey listen uh uh
you know your girlfriend's like i may be pregnant
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or like you know somebody's like hey listen i have
an std like you just like what i felt like that
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when i was texting the good child there's like
three of us and i had to text with my tail between
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my legs i think i've been exposed i'm really sorry
guys i think calcanus is the greek word for turd
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and the punch bowl you know it's all yeah it's so
yeah exactly i don't know if we can tell the the
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code 13. oh i'm going to tell the code 13 story
i wasn't even there but i think there's legendary
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jason jason jason calcanis gets invited by david
sacks out of his benevolence to come to stay uh
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in hawaii at the four seasons and uh at somewhere
some point during this week-long vacation
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christmas day you hear a shout from the pool
from the lifeguard no no it was it was even
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before that we were sitting at the bar so me and
jason and his brother-in-law were sitting at the
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bar having drinks and all of a sudden there's a
commotion and the bartenders and the staff and
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you started hearing people on walkie-talkies
saying code 13 code 13. and people are running
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people right we don't we don't know what to
make of that we think it's a terrorist attack
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i mean literally the four seasons is
on a high alert alarms are going off and then and then we hear okay well we were
like we said to the bartender well what's the
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code 13 and he's like well it means that
some kid you know uh crapped in the pool
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did a number two in the pool and we're like you
know and then and we're like okay well you know
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it was jason's kids well so then then i started
hearing something about like the sax kids and
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i'm like oh no sax code 13th yeah they thought it
was us and then it turns out it was it was jacob's
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kid and we were we were never able to get a a a
reservation but they have this again well what's
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so funny is like i i've been i went there at one
point a few years later and it's a whole ordeal
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because they said so how do you guys deal with
like you know a code 13 they're like oh go 13.
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you have to evacuate the whole hotel half the
island gets sent away here's what had to happen
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this is on just to put the code 13 in perspective
i i think my ten-year-old at the time was two
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years old my sister-in-law takes the baby in the
pool without telling anybody and the baby's not
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wearing a swim diaper and so basically a snickers
bar floats out of the and there's the snickers bar
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in the pool and you guys have kids you know how
big these things could get you're like how is that
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possible that uh you know like a movie theater
size snicker king-size snicker pool is floating in
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the middle but this is on december 25th these poor
people are spending three thousand dollars a night
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there is not a single chase lounge by the pool
that's not occupied it is peak capacity at the uh
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four seasons hotel on the big island or wherever
it was the pool has to be shut down for four hours
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a person has to get in with the hazmat suit
retrieve the snickers bar king-sized snickers
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has to get out of here then they have to throw in
every chemical known to man so much so that the
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pool is ruined for christmas day and that's the
code 13 story all right getting back to our topics
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tick tock is on the verge of being banned from
additional us downloads the commerce department
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has announced that will ban u.s downloads
and business transactions with tick-tock
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and wechat somehow wechat got pulled into this
on sunday this will um seemingly we're going to
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allow tick-tock to operate until november 12th
so they got a little bit of a stay of execution
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uh but of course if they can't update in the
app store that means there could be any security
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vulnerabilities that get found between now and
then would not be able to be updated and stephen
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attempting uh to push through a tick tock deal uh
that'll enable retaining some chinese ownership um
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and there's some sort of agreement now
with oracle will have some kind of an oversight board uh to do continuous third party
audits what does this say uh chamath about
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uh where we're at and do you believe that you know
a democratic uh leader let's say obama or biden
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uh would have taken the same approach here does
it worry you that the government's getting this
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involved or is this inspiring that the
government's putting their foot down and
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saying hey listen uh we're gonna need to have some
basic level of reciprocity from china if we're
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gonna allow you in our app sir you know i think i
think it's kind of like um you know like if you've
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ever been driving someplace with your significant
other and they're like turn left and you're like
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no no i'm gonna turn right and then you realize
you should have turned left but then you keep
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turning right a few more times then you take
a couple more lefts but then you end up at the
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the same place but it was complete [ __ ] dumb
luck um i feel like we're going to end up in the
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same place here with tiktok which is that i think
that the trump administration probably is doing
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this and donald trump specifically probably
does this more as a demonstration of power
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and you know american exceptionalism which
i'm not sure is the right reason to do it but
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i think the outcome is right which is that um
you know for years china has essentially been
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shut out to american companies unless you
effectively just count out to these guys
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um and you know some companies have and some
companies like you know google have not and
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other companies like facebook have been totally
basically blocked from entering and so i think
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it's completely right it's it's it's unfair to
have the asymmetric market advantages that that
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chinese companies have had and so you have to
play hardball to create a different set of rules
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and i think this probably gets us to that place
the reason why it's happening is probably more
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because the tick tock people played that joke
on trump at the tulsa rally if you had if i had
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to guess yeah uh what do you think friedberg is
this a good sign for america and the globe that
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you know in the democratic nations of the world
that we're going to put a foot down with china and
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say hey some reciprocity or you're not going to be
able to participate in our marketplace or is this
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a personal vendetta from trump or a little bit
of both i don't see how it's um anything but uh
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a slippery slope forward in the escalation
of um you know what's gonna be kind of
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transpiring between these two nations in the
the next couple of years and maybe decades
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you know this goes back to the you know early
2000s when google and others wanted to enter
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china and china has for those who don't know china
has this great firewall right the chinese citizens
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can't openly access the rest of the internet and
china wanted to censor content and sensor um what
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their citizens are accessing um and so there's
been a back and forth between the tech industry
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and china uh going back almost 20 years now to
try and figure out how we can bring our services
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to china and then china launches a service that's
very successful in the us in tiktok and um i think
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it's just a you know a part of the reciprocity
equation which doesn't resolve anything it only
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escalates things so it's unfortunate but it's just
kind of another step in the path that i think is
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inevitable in front of us here saks uh we'll give
you the the final word here uh is this a good
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thing for humanity for international relations
that china is you know having a little bit of
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a hand check here like hey there's going to
be a limit to how you can operate in the west
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uh or is this a personal vendetta from
trump and then what do you see going forward
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um it's it it's true that i mean first of all our
social networks are not allowed over there so i
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don't think we need to feel bad about um you know
not allowing their social networks over here but
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besides reciprocity or the lack of it um i think
the deeper reason for this is just around data
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security and and how the you know and i think the
the the ccp has given us adequate grounds here
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to ban not just tick tock but you know apps
like that um because president xi himself
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declared this policy of civil military
fusion which means that any business in china any business asset there including data
can be appropriated to serve the the ends of the
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chinese military or the communist party and you
know the the ccp has set up this vast surveillance
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apparatus over its own citizens it's um
asserted um extra territorial sovereignty over
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former chinese citizens with meaning dissidents um
so that the chinese diaspora anywhere in the world
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they've asserted sovereignty over that and um you know recently there was a pretty remarkable
speech by the fbi director christopher wray
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describing you know operation uh foxhunt which is
the chinese effort to track down and presumably
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ultimately punish chinese distance anywhere in the
world and as part of that that the chinese have
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sort of weaponized ai and social media and so
uh he also described i mean this is like pretty
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amazing i didn't you know that the the equifax
hack which collected data on something like sense
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of data over 100 million americans the chinese
were behind that um i didn't know that and um
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so you know it's it's true it's true that
you know no one piece of data poses uh
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by itself a risk to to to the security of
of america or americans but it's sort of the
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systematic collection and aggregation of the data
and the hacking uh collectively that i do think
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pose a security threat and um and i think you got
to stop right there zach actually an individual's
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data could absolutely be compromised if they have
access to your uh passwords because through the
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clipboard they have access to your phone role if a
young person had photos that were say compromising
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in their photo role the phone is you know
basically given access to that they upload that
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now you could use that as compromise against a
senator's child or against a senator themselves
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and this seems like an abstract thing but this is
exactly what the chinese and russians have been
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doing for a very long time if you've seen the
series the americans and you go back to the 80s
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to see the weaponization of you know somebody who
is in the closet who was gay during that time or
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somebody was having extramarital affair you could
compromise anybody with just sexual compromise
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and you hear we're giving access to hundreds of
millions of people's photo libraries by the way
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clipboards by the way you just said something
that's really scary which is like if you're
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if you're the chinese and you know they
have the patience to play the long game
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uh you just aggregate and collect this thing
for 30 years on the off chance that one of
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these people becomes important i mean what is
the reason you got a manchurian candidate just
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you you just surveilled 300 million americans
and just say uh you know what we'll take our
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shot i mean it's going to cost us a few billion
dollars a year in storage who cares yeah i'm not
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like is is there really a case that what they're
doing in the tick tock app i don't know how much
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you guys have read um some of the studies on on
what they are actually pulling but is there really
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a case that what they're pulling is particularly
different than what would be pulled by pretty much
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any other social app or photo sharing app on your
phone there was some you know kind of insight that
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hey they were capturing the mac address but that
was up until last november after november they
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the app kind of refreshed and stopped doing that
and it was a hack that some number of apps out
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there were already doing but my understanding is
the way that they've built the app it's the same
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kind of ad tracking type um approach that a lot
of apps are taking i i think i think it's a naive
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position that because we haven't caught them doing
something nefarious that they aren't actually
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doing something nefarious right now if you look
at what uh mbs did to jeff bezos sending that um
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i guess it was a movie file or an image that
then wound up hacking his wechat and his phone
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like yeah i think they've built the
software i think it's purpose-built uh whether it's wechat or tick-tock to have these
back doors there's no way the chinese government
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is not influencing that guys look if you if you
had to bet david um what do you think the odds are
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between 0 and 100 with 100 being absolute
certainty that there are foreign national spies
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that work at google facebook amazon microsoft
that's my point it's is it i mean look i think
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that there are no but do you think it's 100 oh
of course it's a hundred yeah i think at every
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one of them it's probably a hundred percent
yeah at least one you know foreign national
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that has a connection to intelligence in china
yeah it's probably a hundred percent 100 so my
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point is tick tock is 100 chinese 100 chinese
so you don't even have to guess whether it's
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my point is like if if if there is some
you know access to personal data that we're all concerned about being compromised
at literally every other [ __ ] app company
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yeah every other app is not connected to you know
but the point that champ just made is that they
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very well could be the fact is we as individuals
have exposed all of our personal and private data
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to six or seven companies i think you're saying
it'd be a really right thing it is a this is a
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canary in the coal mine for a bigger issue this
is why i'm saying i think that you know trump
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is probably acting out of an expression of power
but i think what we're realizing is actually this
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is about core fundamental privacy and the safety
and security of each of us as individuals and it
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should start a bigger conversation like privacy
i i really do think this privacy is the killer
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feature of the 2020s right um you know what
david just said about like you know if you're
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if you're a chinese ex-national the idea that
you're like look i've been a citizen of three
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countries the idea that the sri lankan government
all of a sudden may not like what i have to say
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and can spy on me or you know root my phone or
steal my data it really disturbs me like uh i'm
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sorry but no go [ __ ] yourself like i left that
country for a reason yeah so i think i think the
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republican to watch on this as well besides trump
i guess is uh there's a senator josh hawley who
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is um crazy well he's he he's sort of a critic of
of big tech and i think he's got some interesting
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things to say but but in this particular area
he is proposing legislation to regulate the
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types of information that can be collected by
applications that are based in countries that
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are fundamentally hostile or adversarial to the us
and that to me seems like the right policy because
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you know it's not just about tick tock it's about
all the apps that collect information on americans
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that can be appropriated by you know the chinese
communist party or russia or iran places like
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that and so i think we need a more holistic
policy here than just banning tiktok and it
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may not be necessary to ban tiktok if you had the
right limitations placed on them but um but but
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but i i do think this this this whole um sort of
compromise solution with larry ellison and oracle
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that makes no sense to me this idea that you know
ellison will own 20 of the company but nothing
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else really changes it'll still be based in china
uh a chinese company they'll still be chinese
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engineers based in china who you know and they
still own 80 of it i mean how how does that really
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address the the data center don't you don't you
think david that that's just basically a way of
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just it's a wealth transfer to larry ellison
which i think is amazing i mean if i could totally
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do it yeah it's bite dance it's no it's it's it's
it's put it in your lap yeah no it's bite dance
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it's bite dance paying political protection
money to larry ellison to be their bodyguard
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in this political process but and i but that's
why i don't think it's going to fly i mean holly
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has already said that it's not good enough for him
and so even if i think and it doesn't live up to
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trump's stated criteria even though he seems
to be this is ultimately a syphilis ruling
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sex is that who's going to make the final call
on this or does uh trump have sole executive
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kind of authority on on foreign security
on security grounds to kind of block it
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does it go to cypheus i don't know that's a
good question i think syphilis disapproves
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um m a right it has to it has to approve it
yeah i mean so you're right i mean there are
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there are members of congress that are all going
to need to be convinced to get this thing done
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well but cepheus approves mna i didn't think they
could like block applications as of last year
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as of last year every investment um triggers
cyphus it's it's a weird new thing that happened
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uh i was involved in a company recently that
seemed secondary to the national security
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power that that trump may have so this is almost
like a two-tier kind of thing one is to approve
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one is for um you know for trump to be cool with
it uh national security terms and then second is
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the anti-trust issues if we just go back a
second talking about the broad you know as
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chamoth called it kind of this canary in a coal
mine you know i don't know how many of you guys
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use an amazon echo or a google home or amazon fire
tv or a nest thermostat every every single every
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single one of them has ambient audio listening
on it every single one of them even and another
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thing people don't realize is every speaker is
actually a microphone as well as a speaker you
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can actually listen on any house speaker whether
it's a sonos device or what have you and so we've
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got uh you know our homes are already wired um
amazon fire tv runs on [ __ ] android um i mean
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there's a hundred ways into your home as it is
it seems to me like there's a significant concern
00:19:51
about how much data we are already exposing that's
being highlighted here i don't think that there's
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you know it's sort of like playing uh that where
you try and pop the hamsters in the game it's like
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at some point we're gonna realize these things
are here everywhere and it's not just a company
00:20:06
but it is how we are living our lives now and how
technology is kind of um capturing every piece of
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information about everything we do this is this
is i go back to this somebody will take this or
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many people will take this and run with it but i
think that there is an enormous amount of money
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um that consumers will pay for the assurance of
anonymity and privacy i don't really know how it's
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expressed david but like you know for example like
if i could get a phone that was completely locked
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down and encrypted and um like a burner phone
is what you're talking about and like a lot of
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people are now doing this they take a second
phone they put vp vpns are the or the first
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step right and you're seeing like i tried i'm very
popular well like i try to use signal i try to use
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facetime audio i'll even use whatsapp now
just because these things are intend encrypted
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and i have nothing particularly important or
interesting to say or hide um but i just don't
00:21:06
like the idea that in the in the open wild um i'm
ju i just feel very vulnerable to data breaches
00:21:13
more than any other kind of breach i mean i had
this conversation with somebody that was you know
00:21:18
sort of helping me lock down uh my wi-fi network
you know and for a long time i only had one end
00:21:24
point and all of a sudden he's like look let's
have a home and a guest but in that conversation
00:21:30
what he was saying is um the the biggest
form of theft isn't like burglaries anymore
00:21:36
it's basically people just having packet sniffers
outside your house um because they can get access
00:21:41
to everything and anything and can i ask you can
i ask you a question there's a there's a book
00:21:46
by a guy named steven baxter was a science fiction
book from years ago and arthur clark called
00:21:50
the light of other days and these guys developed
wormhole technology they could put it in any house
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and they could see and listen to everything and
suddenly the technology became kind of ubiquitous
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so everyone could create a wormhole anywhere
and see and hear everything so effectively
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information was completely transferable and free
and available to everyone and the book kind of
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highlights how society changed in that context
so in a world where you see where everyone is
00:22:13
and what everyone is doing and saying there's
no longer any notion of information asymmetry
00:22:18
and the way people operate and behave changes
because so much of our life is dependent on people
00:22:22
not knowing things about us that we know so when
you're when your employee is going to go interview
00:22:26
for another job and they tell you they're going
to the dentist you can say like hey that's not
00:22:30
true and the guy says you know what i'm actually
thinking about looking for another job because i
00:22:33
hate working for you you suck so everyone starts
changing kind of how they behave do you think that
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50 years from now that's where the world heads
do you really think it's possible to stop this
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train in its tracks and not end up in a world of
what i would call kind of like hyper transparency
00:22:48
where all information becomes kind of because it's
already being collected everywhere about everyone
00:22:52
and it's only i think it's rising exponentially
people are going to start i i think that
00:22:57
people are going to start turning their homes
into like those skiffs you know sensitive
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compartmented information facilities you always
hear about like senators going into the skiff kind
00:23:06
of situation for private stuff i think like people
are going to start taking this very seriously as
00:23:10
they get compromised you know time after time and
embarrassing and uh you can see with apple making
00:23:16
it their marketing strategy apples you don't think
society changes oh i think it's already changed
00:23:21
already with like people getting their phones
hacked and they're you know nudes being leaked
00:23:26
people normalize that i think it makes the world
a much shittier place because it basically robs
00:23:33
us of our own independence and our fundamental
right to privacy and i just think that's a really
00:23:41
bad outcome and so you know what like i if if like
the need for likes uh and tweets uh and followers
00:23:50
uh leads me to a place where i lose privacy
i would just say shut them all down now
00:23:54
um because i think that people's self-worth is
much bigger than what they understand it to be
00:23:59
if they're willing to make that trade-off but yeah
most people appreciate that well i i i would also
00:24:06
i would also just add that just because there's
more transparency doesn't mean that it serves the
00:24:12
interests of truth like jason said earlier um this
information can be used to create you know ops you
00:24:18
know and right manipulate and um you know it's um
and so um yeah i don't you know it look like like
00:24:27
trotsky said just because you're an artist in war
doesn't mean war isn't interested in you i mean
00:24:32
this data can be collected to run operations
on people uh that don't serve you know the
00:24:38
interests of greater transparency i think i
think people don't think from first principles
00:24:43
on this topic this is sort of like the idiotic
orthodoxy of silicon valley which is like they
00:24:48
they wrap themselves in the flag of transparency
like it means something but they have no
00:24:52
real idea what it really means at scale and at
the limit and right you know there's one thing
00:24:57
about getting access to a [ __ ] looker dashboard
who cares you know and but the word transparency
00:25:03
is used for that the same way that it's used
for david exactly what you just said and there
00:25:07
are two completely different things they have
completely different meanings and uh the latter's
00:25:12
implications are so much more important and we
need to think about this from first principles
00:25:16
because i think people's inherent identity as
human beings ultimately gets put at risk over
00:25:24
time it should absolutely be the case that these
social networks or anybody collecting data gives
00:25:29
an op this is the way i would form the legislation
if you are running a service like facebook twitter
00:25:34
google for free and you're monetizing through
advertising you must provide an option like what
00:25:49
service to advertising services then
i think you should be forced to give a option for whatever the amount of
that monetization is a year to pay
00:26:00
us a subscription so for example if facebook
makes 80 dollars per person you lost you lost
00:26:07
this uh monetization jason sorry i think let's
it's it's over it's over next segment next time
00:26:20
all right well just as we wrap up here on
this segment kevin's sister might uh he's
00:26:24
in the running apparently to take over for tick
tock uh is that a good idea uh saks i think you
00:26:28
know a system i i think it's a pretty it's it's a
dumb idea unless the company literally becomes an
00:26:35
american company i don't know why you've made
this point in the context of kevin mayer like
00:26:41
if if if he's working for bite dance he's
working for the by dance board directors which
00:26:46
reports the ccp it's just why would someone
who's in his position want to sacrifice his
00:26:52
independence to do that yeah it makes no
sense i mean that's this is becoming the big
00:26:56
test on everybody's moral compass especially
hollywood which is changing the ending of movies
00:27:02
to satisfy the ccp like literally the people who
are the biggest virtuous signals in the world
00:27:07
celebrities hollywood china china knows how to use
its market access we don't we just threw open our
00:27:13
markets to their products uh which caused you
know us to lose our whole you know industrial
00:27:20
you know manufacturing capacity we didn't
demand anything really in exchange for that
00:27:25
whereas in order to get access to china
you have to say and do the right things or
00:27:30
certainly to to not criticize them and so they
they know how to use as we saw with the mba and
00:27:36
the whole um daryl mori thing um you know they
know how to use their market access all right
00:27:43
well let's go on to the economy here we've been
sheltering in place uh essentially for six months
00:27:49
and now people are starting to talk about
hey maybe we need to do another lockdown
00:27:56
and obviously this uh economic challenge
is being felt very differently in some
00:28:03
places it's an opportunity obviously
a lot of people with sas software and you know people who work behind keyboards
are having a renaissance and a lot of the
00:28:13
economy is pouring into their keyboards while
restaurants retail and anybody who has to work
00:28:19
in the real world is part of what's becoming
essentially a permanent unemployed class that
00:28:27
perhaps is starting to look like a dry one of ubi
what are your thoughts chamoth on this permanent
00:28:34
unemployment situation um i i have a i have a
bunch of thoughts here let me just go kind of give
00:28:39
you the stream of consciousness like um jerome
powell gave a speech i think it was two or three
00:28:44
weeks ago in jackson hole um and he basically
said like look the federal reserve is taking a
00:28:49
completely new posture on rates and um you know
they they basically clarified that in explicit
00:28:55
detail just um uh just a few days ago uh and they
basically said we're keeping rates where they are
00:29:02
until at least 2023. you know my personal views
for rates are going to stay basically at zero
00:29:07
for the next half decade and i think it's probably
pretty likely that we're going to see rates stay
00:29:12
at zero probably a full decade so what does that
mean okay well a typical recession what happens
00:29:22
is you don't know where the bottom is right things
sort of sort of decay they get a little bit worse
00:29:27
they get a little bit worse they get a little bit
worse then things bottom out and then you know you
00:29:32
start to grow and you can use interest rate policy
to kind of help navigate how soft the landing is
00:29:37
as well as how fast the recovery is that's sort
of like classic economics and how bankers and the
00:29:43
markets and all these folks used to work and it
eventually would trickle into main street now we
00:29:48
just have none of those things we have rates zero
they're not going to go anywhere they're not going
00:29:52
to go up they're probably not going to go down
they're going to kind of just stay where they are
00:29:56
that's one thing second is we priced
in the bottom which was the first month of the coronavirus we took the markets
basically assuming oh there's no growth
00:30:03
and now we've priced things back as if they'll
recover the rating agencies are out to lunch
00:30:08
they've basically said you know what i'm going
to look out till 2021 or 2022 give me a reason
00:30:14
to justify not to downgrade you so that you can
continue to raise more debt which by the way is
00:30:21
free um so you have all these dynamics where i
think the capital markets are in an expansive
00:30:28
mood and an expansive mode and in that i actually
think there's a real bid to uh employment because
00:30:36
there isn't really that many ways now you can
without just getting completely ripped apart
00:30:44
put money to work and so the the the real
earnest capital allocation strategy that's
00:30:48
left for most ceos is to actually buy
things invest in things try more things and all of those i think lead to net employment
so in general i'm kind of constructive and bullish
00:30:58
and i don't think that this idea that
there's a permanent unemployment class sticks around freeberg what are your thoughts
obviously a lot of americans work in retail
00:31:07
um you know we obviously uh have all these
restaurant workers who are out of work and
00:31:13
travel is uh now hitting the end of the
furloughs at a lot of these um different
00:31:20
arrow lines et cetera what's your thought
on this unemployment middle america catastrophe well i don't think um happiness
comes from you know absolute standards of living
00:31:34
i think happiness arises from one's relative
standard of living whether that's relative to
00:31:40
how you lived last year or how you're living
relative to your neighbor and and seeing some
00:31:45
progression over time is the only thing that
keeps people happy it's otherwise society decays
00:31:51
so the notion of some sort of flatlined
or even flatlined and inflation-adjusted
00:31:57
uh basic income level for a large number
of people will inevitably result in kind
00:32:02
of what we're trying to prevent which is
you know some sort of decay societal decay
00:32:07
we have to resolve the the opportunity framework
for people which is how do you give people an
00:32:12
opportunity to kind of progress in their lives and
earn more over time and have access to you know
00:32:17
doing more with themselves while they're here on
planet earth i mean that's just what humans need
00:32:21
so um you know maybe there's a short-term fix but
i think we've got some structural things to fix to
00:32:28
kind of enable opportunities and and give people
kind of an inherent uh you know kind of stepladder
00:32:38
in life i heard a really dark theory a few years
ago which is if we do this we're going to resolve
00:32:42
to a world where we're going to have a bunch
of people playing video games because then the
00:32:46
only way you can get people to feel like they're
progressing in their lives is to give them more
00:32:50
medals on their video games and give them a higher
ranking and score and that's where society kind of
00:32:55
gets to to kind of keep people psychologically
kind of satiated and it's a pretty dark you know
00:33:01
sad place if that's where we end up it's like
a bad episode of black mirror but we've had a
00:33:05
few episodes of black mirror this year so you
know it sounds like ready player one uh with
00:33:09
a masters were playing video games instead
of actually going out in the world totally
00:33:14
sax what what's your thought on you know just the
next two years let's say and how this all shakes
00:33:20
out and this will give us a good segue into the
coronavirus and where we stand right now with this
00:33:26
potential second lockdown and the impact
that might have psychologically on people
00:33:30
and also on the economy there's not going to be a
second lockdown it doesn't make any sense and even
00:33:36
if there were people aren't going to support it
certainly any of the red states aren't going to do
00:33:42
it i guess the blue states may they still haven't
you know sort of unlocked down so maybe that gets
00:33:48
more protracted in places like california but um
but it we're not going to go back into lockdowns
00:33:53
and people won't support and i think the thing
that we basically figured out that should have
00:33:57
been obvious months ago now is that um coronavirus
is really like two different diseases in terms of
00:34:03
its effects on on people so for elderly people and
for people with risk factors it's very dangerous
00:34:10
you know i'm very worried about my parents and
you know for people in that group they have
00:34:14
to take you know extreme precautions but for
young healthy people without risk factors it's
00:34:20
um it's not been that deadly it's it's
very unpleasant it's a very bad two weeks
00:34:25
but you know for example if you look at the
data now on uh on colleges coming back there's
00:34:32
been some reports that the virus is spreading
like wildfire on college campuses that's true
00:34:36
but hospitalizations and and deaths have not gone
up and so because it's just not that um it's just
00:34:42
not that deadly to to to younger people and so
i think this idea of shutting down the whole
00:34:47
economy to protect people at risk is just seems
like overkill and i think if we had to do it all
00:34:53
over again we wouldn't have done lockdowns we
just would have protected at risk people we've
00:34:58
still consistently had a thousand deaths a day we
thought this might go down what are your thoughts
00:35:04
on americans just being okay with that um that
basic death toll sex well i mean any deaths
00:35:12
is is obviously bad and tragic and um you know
and statistically there are going to be people
00:35:19
who who die even who are in the you know lowest
group so for sure but you know but we've had about
00:35:24
200 000 deaths the original estimates from
this virus were two to three million so um it's
00:35:32
i guess my point is not that it's not bad but
it's you know but that it's um you know much less
00:35:39
deadly than i think was originally thought
there's an argument that that's not deaths directly attributable to coronavirus right
and that um the vast majority of of those folks
00:35:48
had co-morbidities and that you know the primary
driver this is an argument many have made i'm not
00:35:54
gonna take a strong point um but you know
85 percent plus of folks have significant
00:36:00
comorbidities um and you know this virus may be um
kind of has a contributing factor to their death
00:36:08
but if let's assume everyone in the united states
had coronavirus today then every death that was
00:36:15
reported today would be reported as a coronavirus
death um and so they're testing a lot of folks um
00:36:21
uh you know in the hospital finding that they have
coronavirus it's un you know it's very difficult
00:36:26
to then prove that the reason that they died or
the sole reason that they died was coronavirus
00:36:31
if you had to pick a percentage free bird where
would you put it half of all the deaths if you
00:36:35
just guess but that's my point is i don't think
it's one thing right i'm not sure that it's
00:36:40
someone goes into the hospital with coronavirus
and they've also got severe diabetes heart
00:36:45
disease cancer they're on chemotherapy i mean you
could list the other things that they might have
00:36:50
what caused their death you know you can't as a
coroner it's very difficult to say this one thing
00:36:55
caused the death but when they test that person
and they find that their chronovirus positive
00:36:59
their that number is now being counted in the
statistics that say that was a coronavirus death
00:37:03
that day and coronavirus is so prevalent in the
united states right now it's such a significant
00:37:08
part of the population it's also very difficult to
say hey guys like you know these deaths are so i'm
00:37:14
not trying to belittle the fact that people are
absolutely dying and they wouldn't have died if
00:37:18
not for coronavirus that is absolutely happening
but it's very difficult to say what is the net
00:37:24
effect on life right now uh we're still learning a
lot about how this virus interacts with different
00:37:28
people based on their genetics and based on their
disease state and and other factors let me ask you
00:37:34
one more way for you free burger then i'll give
it over to chemoth which is freeberg and your
00:37:39
estimation as a scientist and somebody who's a
i would say a man of science on the call here uh
00:37:45
are you optimistic about us coming out of
coronavirus in 2021 and what's your best outlook
00:37:52
for a return to normalcy if you had to pick a time
when it feels like we can go to a warriors game or
00:37:58
play cards regularly or go to the world series of
poker wendy do you have a a time period where you
00:38:03
think that could possibly happen it's all politics
and social behavior it has nothing to do with
00:38:08
science like after 9 11 there were no more serious
like terrorist attacks on the united states but
00:38:13
our [ __ ] lives changed dramatically we go sit
in tsa lines and you know get our asses swabbed
00:38:18
when we get on an airplane now and that's still
going on 20 years later so i'm i'm pretty sure
00:38:23
there's a lot of change that's here to stay in the
u.s because of coronavirus and will be even after
00:38:28
everyone gets vaccines and the deaths drop below
10 a day and yada yada so um yeah i'm i'm not
00:38:34
convinced that this is like hey here's the date
we're all going to be out of it and then we're
00:38:38
safe because people are psychologically scarred
behavior has changed businesses have changed the
00:38:43
landscape of how we work as a society has changed
and that's not going away so it's it's it's not
00:38:47
like we're going to go back i think it's like
we're going forward into a different world where
00:38:51
we operate differently much is what happened after
9 11. what's your take on that shamath i think
00:38:56
that uh david's right that you know were it but
for coronavirus i think a lot of these people that
00:39:02
died would still be alive and so you know i don't
think it really matters how much of the blame
00:39:07
we're trying to ascribe to it it's just that it
was a meaningful non-trivial contributing factor
00:39:13
so these deaths are avoidable and we have to deal
with that the second is i don't think what we
00:39:18
know what the peak to trough looks like because we
haven't really gone through a real full-blown flu
00:39:23
season yet you know coronavirus came to america
at the tail end of the winter and it's going to be
00:39:33
i think tough to figure out what it's going
to do in october november december january or
00:39:37
february when it's really cold in many parts of
the united states and you know whatever effects
00:39:42
again we still don't know it in totality but
whatever effects the warm weather had in muting
00:39:47
it or whatever mutation muted it may change so
i tend to think it's another 18 to 24 months
00:39:54
of this posture but freedberg is really right
which is like this is what's so sad which is
00:40:00
when you could point a finger and look at somebody
and say you you're the cause it was much easier to
00:40:07
react and create rules and create boundaries as
uncomfortable or as inconvenient as they were and
00:40:13
live by them and because this is more nameless
and faceless it's impossible um so all right
00:40:21
well here's some good news i was able to acquire
uh i've been on a little investigative journalism
00:40:27
kick asking people if they have access to rapid
testing uh kits i.e they have them in korea and
00:40:33
i was able to get and i'm curious your thoughts
on this friedberg the rapid response liberty
00:40:39
coven 19 igg igm test cassettes and they cost
15 to 20 bucks each and they take 10 minutes
00:40:49
they're easy to use um i mean i've had those
since march and they cost 50 cents each
00:40:55
so so these are now officially available
though in the united states you had those
00:41:00
from some other country correct i got from
china and i got from the us and i got from korea
00:41:07
um and and these things are just made everywhere
dude and they're like they're these are the um
00:41:13
accuracy right yes yeah the so there's a
paper that was published at ucsf um i i
00:41:20
got an acknowledgement because of my donations
to support the research and it showed that it
00:41:26
these tests have actually very good specificity
and the sensitivity is is going to be call it 85
00:41:36
but these are antibody tests and and further
research has shown that not everyone has the
00:41:40
same antibody response after getting infected
and there's a relationship between how severe
00:41:44
the disease is for you and and various other
factors so and these will only show up typically
00:41:50
you know days to weeks after you get infected
the antigen tests which are the more common kind
00:41:55
of ones that everyone's looking for now are these
tests that can actually find the virus itself and
00:42:01
so they'll take a swab of your nose or some saliva
from your mouth and see if there's any virus
00:42:05
in there and it's a much much lower sensitivity
than the pcr test which is the expensive you
00:42:11
know lab test but it can be done on a stick and
it's a good enough thing for letting people in
00:42:15
to say a football game um and our a good friend
of ours just texted me and told me that they're
00:42:20
doing this at the ut austin game they're using
this antigen test to let people into the uh the
00:42:25
football game today so um or this weekend so it's
getting kind of more widespread yes and so when
00:42:31
we have those tests at scales what will the world
look like for burke i don't know just like the tsa
00:42:37
you'll get swabbed and you know these things it's
great business to be in by the way if you guys
00:42:41
you know want to spack a korean uh antigen test
business these things are going to sell like crazy
00:42:48
there's a company that um i heard of through
a friend which had it's an israeli company
00:42:53
i never followed up on it uh which was
a effectively a breathalyzer um which would be could you just imagine that would be
incredible right right you just well the reason
00:43:05
we've talked about this in our chat group there
are there are startups like um uh was it quadell
00:43:10
hemodius q who've got these little you know two
or three hundred dollar little handheld readers
00:43:16
and the cartridges are basically mouth swabs or
lower nails nasal swabs you know cost 10 bucks
00:43:22
and i think you know i think they'll be they're
going to be rolling out over the next few months
00:43:26
and assuming we can scale the production of them
i think they will be everywhere and uh you know i
00:43:32
don't think it'll be a government mandated thing
so i don't think the government will get its act
00:43:35
together but it'll be the kind of thing where you
go shopping at a store or whatever and they'll be
00:43:39
early adopters or a restaurant they'll start using
it people will realize well wait i don't want to
00:43:43
get swapped three times a day so then they'll
get some sort of like receipt or voucher they can
00:43:48
take with them to the next place and so i i think
you know i'm like actually like i think i'm more
00:43:53
optimistic than you guys about covid right now
i think that whether it's because of these rapid
00:43:58
tests or because of treatments coming or just
this fundamental fact about comorbidities again
00:44:04
not absolving not not saying that covet isn't
serious but this is the fact that we've learned
00:44:09
that it's um you know that it's it's really
deadly primarily for people who have comorbidities
00:44:14
i think for all of these reasons i think kova
is going to be a distant memory by next summer
00:44:19
i really do i think um i think behaviorally
too what's that do you think behavior changes
00:44:26
as well like businesses and movie theaters
yeah sports yeah i think i think people we
00:44:31
i think people will largely be back um to what
they were doing last summer or by next summer
00:44:37
um i think we're gonna have like you know call
it a six-month period where you know we we do
00:44:41
these rapid tests just to make sure um and um
but but i but i think as the case rate starts
00:44:48
dropping off um things will kind of revert back to
to where they were i mean the the question to ask
00:44:54
is kind of you know which trends were there before
covet and have been accelerated like i would say
00:45:00
the move from like death of retail the shift to
e-commerce that feels to me like it's here to
00:45:04
stay but um you know food delivery things like
that but there was no trend of people not going
00:45:10
to sports games anymore you know and i think like
stuff like that will just snap right back i don't
00:45:15
know i don't know about you guys i'm still
like feeling [ __ ] up by the whole thing you
00:45:18
don't really realize how much your psychology has
changed until you kind of reflect on decisions and
00:45:24
behaviors like there's still a fear factor that
i think needs to kind of be ironed out but um you
00:45:30
know we'll see how long it takes for people it's
just like it's so different when you're so used to
00:45:34
just waking up and hopping on zoom for work and
avoiding people and putting masks on when you go
00:45:39
walk your [ __ ] dog i mean it's like yeah you
know it's gonna be hard to kind of change out of
00:45:43
that overnight well i think there's i think
this idea of the greater flexibility around
00:45:48
working arrangements the ability to work from
home i think offices will become a little bit
00:45:53
more like co-working spaces for a single company
where people come in three days a week and
00:45:57
work from home a couple days a week i think
there'll be a permanent flexibility but
00:46:00
uh but i also think that people want to get
back to work and they want it back to offices
00:46:04
and they want to interact with people and i think
everyone's going to be excited to do that again
00:46:09
it's not like everyone's going to be working
from home forever um so i you know i think
00:46:15
again i next summer is kind of my my date
for when things are back to back to normal
00:46:22
uh well this has been certainly uh driving a
lot of our politics right now you probably saw
00:46:29
the book that came out with the tapes of trump
saying that you know he was trying to play it down
00:46:36
sax as a lifelong republican what were your
thoughts when the republican presidential
00:46:41
candidate the republican president said uh hey i'm
trying to play this down when he was at the same
00:46:48
time saying it was deadly serious does that make
you worry about trump as a candidate and what do
00:46:53
you think that's gonna how that might play into
the election it must have been disappointing for
00:46:56
you to hear your candidate trump say at the same
time this is deadly and i want to play it down
00:47:02
well trump trump's leadership on this has been
a little bit erratic for sure um and by the way
00:47:07
let's go back and remind the viewers here that
in the first pods we were doing back in april
00:47:11
i think we kind of nailed what the right policy
response should be i wrote a blog on april 2nd
00:47:16
talking about that mass should be required
that that was the right response but we also
00:47:19
said that lockdowns very quickly after
the start of lockdown said that it was um excessive you know and that what we should
do is be going all in on mass not lockdowns
00:47:29
i certainly would have liked to have seen trump
get that right several months earlier um that
00:47:34
being said let's not forget everybody else who
got this stuff wrong too i mean you look at cdc
00:47:41
um you know or w-h-o we had talked about this on
a previous pod uh i mean w-h-o um was was also uh
00:47:52
unclear about mass and and fouchy i guess
now retroactively saying that he didn't
00:47:58
think that mass were necessary because he's trying
to prevent a run on supplies i mean the whole the
00:48:02
whole response of the health care establishment
they were all they were all like really bad and
00:48:10
so i have a greater degree of forgiveness for
people who made mistakes back in march or april
00:48:16
but what i think is hard to forgive now are these
people who are promoting the wrong policies now
00:48:22
that we know so much more and i mean at this point
i would think i think that kovit is covet policy
00:48:29
is a net plus for trump in this campaign because
the other side of it is um is is these permanent
00:48:35
lockdowns you know this is an article in um was it
foreign policy saying that we need to go back to
00:48:40
lockdowns and i think biden said that we need to
have lockdowns again and you know his policy would
00:48:45
be to listen to the experts but all these experts
again were wrong about so many things and and so
00:48:51
you know again i think this this idea of permanent
lockdowns if that is the alternative to trump will
00:48:58
help trump win uh and so you don't think that this
woodward book and and that kind of stuff plays
00:49:04
into the election or the debates in the coming
weeks i think it's sort of priced into the stock
00:49:10
you know i mean look if it weren't for kovid i
think that if you go back to like january february
00:49:15
when trump gave that state of the union speech his
ratings were the highest they had been the economy
00:49:20
was on fire um you know he kind of it looked like
he was on cruise control to winning re-election
00:49:26
and then covet happened and you know um and his
ratings went down to the to their lowest point and
00:49:33
um and so i think he already paid the price
for you know the the let's call it inconsistent
00:49:39
leadership that um that woodward described so
i think that's priced in and now the question
00:49:44
is if the economy gets good enough fast enough um
and the other side is on the side of lockdowns and
00:49:51
trump is on the side of reopening um you know i
again i think covet policy becomes a net plus for
00:49:56
him chamatha 538 has in its simulations 77 wins
and 100 for biden you think that's accurate yeah
00:50:06
i mean i i think that until uh the debates
i think that this thing is basically where
00:50:11
it's been for a long time um and if if biden
flubs the debate and basically comes out as
00:50:18
um you know intellectually too inconsistent to
be voted in by a plurality of americans he's done
00:50:24
for and trump's going to win so he can't have
these you know verbal gaffes and basically seem
00:50:30
like he's a you know a senile octogenarian if he
does come off that way he's going to lose um but
00:50:36
if he doesn't then look many of the moments
you see him now he's actually pretty crisp
00:50:41
um that probably gets the job done because
like i said i think more people just want a
00:50:46
non-trump alternative um than want the trump
alternative even within the republican party
00:50:51
and look like preference falsification can cut
both ways all the people that said they weren't
00:50:56
going to vote for him but then did um you know
there's also probably a cohort of people that
00:51:02
now feel obligated when they came out of the
woodwork as supporting him now they just feel
00:51:06
like it's easier to be publicly supporting him
but then in the you know they may go the other
00:51:10
way so it all kind of works in both directions um
but i i still think on the margin uh biden is the
00:51:18
biden is the favorite and you know how different
will the world look chamath in your estimation
00:51:24
under abiding presidency we get to january 1st how
different does the country feel is it going to be
00:51:29
some great relief is it going to be some great
joy like when obama won no no what do you think
00:51:37
all these things are emotional overreactions in
both directions um the reality is that if you
00:51:42
if you actually graft substantive policy that
affects your everyday life the magnitude of the
00:51:49
impact of the presidency has been shrinking since
the 1980s i think the most impactful president
00:51:55
of our lifetimes our lifetime so you know
70s onwards was reagan and it's basically
00:52:02
been decaying ever since um and uh so i think you
know i think that the the job of the presidency is
00:52:11
mostly window dressing except for foreign policy
that matters less and less and i'll tell you why
00:52:16
that matters less and less because all the things
that the president used to you know really govern
00:52:20
like foreign policy was a byproduct of a
whole bunch of other things for example
00:52:24
our entire posture on the middle east which has
been a [ __ ] [ __ ] show or our entire posture
00:52:30
on russia was in part because of uh our energy
policy and in a world of sustainable energy
00:52:36
those entire regions are uh not important anymore
so we can let them basically fend for themselves
00:52:43
they're going to they're going to devolve because
they're going to have to suck out all the oil
00:52:46
out of the ground to try to monetize it before
wind and solar and everything else become the
00:52:50
dominant form of of energy and so if you take
energy policy off the table all of a sudden
00:52:55
the national security interests to care
about large spots of the world go to zero
00:52:59
right so so then there's less and less than
the presence of it's pretty pretty pretty short
00:53:03
isn't it yes so so my my my point is the surface
the surface area of the impact of the president
00:53:09
is shrinking and it shrinks as technology like if
you think about it what is driving foreign policy
00:53:15
and national security policy changes over the last
10 15 years definitely over the next 40 or 50 is
00:53:20
technology right if we get if we get for example
if we get any form of like carbon sequestration
00:53:26
uh at scale broadly available um you're going
to have a complete resurgence of western
00:53:31
economies if that technology is invented
in the united states or western europe
00:53:36
freeberg quickly you'd think that biden is going
to win and then what do you think the country
00:53:43
feels and looks like into abiding presidency and
then let's move over to energy and sustainable
00:53:50
energy and carbon after that i don't know um you
know i'll say the same thing i've said in the past
00:53:56
i i don't think um the notion of a sense of
relief is is realistic i don't think this is
00:54:01
about uh people think it's about trump but trump
is the product of what it's all really about um
00:54:07
and so i'll just you know kind of highlight i
think you know biden is is a column instead of
00:54:13
thinking about things as democrats and republicans
and left and right if we think about it as kind of
00:54:17
populism and free marketism and in the middle of
centrism you know we're probably taking a notch
00:54:24
toward centrism and at the end of the day the
march towards populism seems to be continuing
00:54:32
and you know whether trump is
kind of the product of that march or maybe the next one will be elizabeth warren
or aoc it's kind of the same thing in my opinion
00:54:40
um but i i think that's the bigger kind of concern
is um you know how do we again keep general
00:54:47
generally keep most people in the united states
feeling like they can progress in life feeling
00:54:52
like they can find happiness in life and feeling
like there's opportunity for them to kind of
00:54:57
you know achieve their objectives and if they
don't feel like they're getting it they're
00:55:01
going to try and wrap it all up and unions will
continue to scale and aoc will become the vice
00:55:08
presidential nominee in 2024 and yadda yadda uh
freebird what are your thoughts on the wildfires
00:55:14
global warming and the politics of all that and
then we'll go to uh cancel culture with eusex
00:55:21
um california has 33 million acres of forest land
it's about 100 million acres in total land so
00:55:29
for us to make up about a third of our land um
so far we're burning three and a half million
00:55:34
so about 10 of our acres um when we burn an acre
we release uh about 15 of the carbon that's stored
00:55:44
in that acre into the atmosphere so thus far if
you do the math on that we've released about as
00:55:49
much uh co2 as we've as the california cars
release in a year by the wildfires um and the
00:55:56
politics we're seeing play out so it's it's it's
a significant problem but over the last 40 years
00:56:01
we've added about a quarter a ton of carbon to
each acre per year um and the reason we've done
00:56:08
that is we haven't kind of you know lit fires
and managed the forests and cut down trees and
00:56:15
there's been all these restrictions in california
so there's an argument that some are making that
00:56:19
this is about forest management and then there's
an argument that others are making that this
00:56:22
is about climate change and dry weather and hot
weather causing the fires and the reality is it's
00:56:27
both but it's as everything else in this country
right now becoming highly politicized that um
00:56:33
and you know trump visited newsome in a very kind
of symbolic gathering this week i don't know if
00:56:37
you guys saw the packet that was handed out to
trump it was awesome it was like 24 point from
00:56:56
was i mean you guys got to see it it's
awesome the little packet he got awesome
00:57:00
and then and then used some sat like exactly six
feet from him with a mask on and trump sitting
00:57:03
there without the mask on i mean it's such a
[ __ ] political circus um and uh you know i
00:57:09
think all things are true and all things are
false and we can move on uh well the the the
00:57:15
the debate on the fires is i mean what it's the
debate has has become sort of uh climate change
00:57:22
versus forest management you know that's sort of
the debate about it and like most of these debates
00:57:29
you don't necessarily have to choose there
can be an element of truth on both sides
00:57:33
um you know regardless of how much
climate change has caused these fires we've done a very very poor job in the state
managing them and you know this idea that we
00:57:42
can just fix global warming and or wait you know
not have good forest management until you know
00:57:48
and just kind of wait for global warming to be
fixed is um i mean that's a really stupid idea so
00:57:52
regards of how much climate change is to the cause
of this i think we need a much more competent
00:57:58
state reaction to you know to to the fact these
fires do you believe in global warming david sacks
00:58:05
i believe in the you know in greenhouse
the greenhouse gas theory and that yeah
00:58:10
that it's you know that man-made co2 emissions
are going to have an impact on the environment
00:58:14
i think that you know what's a little
bit hard to know is the exact timing and magnitudes of some of these things but i agree
with what elon said which is that we're running a
00:58:23
very high risk experiment here um continually
putting out you know co2 greenhouse gases into
00:58:30
into the atmosphere why is it so difficult for
the republican party and i feel like you're almost
00:58:35
straining and couching your words there david that
you believe in global warming you believe in what
00:58:40
elon's saying it's not worth doing this for risk
why do republicans seem to have such an aversion
00:58:46
to just saying hey global warming is a thing
and we need to fix it because because because
00:58:50
democrats wrapped those words around them like a
flag and so it became a political issue um like
00:58:57
with everything else i mean i i think so so again
as we have this false choice now of whether you
00:59:03
want to save the environment or save the economy
and um and the problem is i think i think that a
00:59:10
lot of republicans don't want to concede the issue
oh hey little guy a lot of problems don't want to
00:59:16
concede the issue because they're afraid it'll
lead to something like the green new deal and so
00:59:20
what we need to do is figure out um some
responses to the problem that don't require
00:59:24
us to destroy the economy right and for you if
we did incentives if the if the country spent
00:59:31
incentive sacks to get solar on roofs and stuff
like that you wouldn't be opposed to it would you
00:59:36
um you mean like taxing carbon emissions or just
giving discounts on putting solar in subsidizing
00:59:42
solar for people's houses or maybe the middle
ground of creating more nuclear reactors which
00:59:47
seems like something that neither party can agree
to hold on little guy sorry i got it got a little
00:59:53
podcast okay sorry no problem yeah um look i think
i i think to the extent that um carbon emissions
01:00:04
are uh an externality the traditional way of
dealing with this is you would internalize the
01:00:09
externality by placing some tax or penalty on
that um but so look would i rather tax carbon
01:00:15
emissions than something else yes i mean but the
only way you're going to get something like that
01:00:20
through is if you agree to something like a
one-for-one tax reduction in other areas right
01:00:25
because there's a there's this other larger debate
about whether you know what else should be taxed
01:00:30
what about you chamoth what are your thoughts on
solving global warming and this polarized sort of
01:00:35
republican democrat if you're for a global if
you're if you believe in global warming you're
01:00:39
not a republican there's a i i think that
um this is the most correlated thing with
01:00:46
a healthy economy because i think that whoever
solves climate change or the set of solutions
01:00:51
that solve climate change first of all they'll be
uh unbelievably economically successful they will
01:00:57
employ enormous numbers of people um and they'll
have a really profound legacy in the world so
01:01:04
uh the the question is how to do it and
i think the problem is right now there's
01:01:08
there's as david i think actually puts the best
lens on the topic which is right now we don't
01:01:14
even have enough canonical data so that there's
a single source of truth that we can all rely on
01:01:18
and have not having to judge it as climate change
i think is an important step which would just mean
01:01:23
having a longitudinal measurement of temperature
and you know having a longitudinal measurement of
01:01:28
everything from pm 2.5 to pm10 to you know uh
carbon methane all of the other normal sort
01:01:35
of emissions nitrous oxide all this stuff so that
then you can just understand what men and women as
01:01:42
part of the human race are doing to uh [ __ ] with
the counter factual because the counterfactual as
01:01:49
if we were just like living normal chill lives
and so once you understand that then you can
01:01:54
figure out how to at least mitigate that back to
what the counterfactual would have been or do it
01:01:58
even better i think the best thing again we talked
about this in a pod a couple weeks ago or a couple
01:02:04
couple months ago the best thing that governments
can do is introduce incentives and i think the
01:02:10
the most meaningful incentives here are not at
the consumer level but they're more upstream so
01:02:16
you know if you take something like cement you
know cement which is responsible for i think 20
01:02:21
of all the carbon emissions is a really pernicious
industry because you know they all they are very
01:02:26
local they operate within 300 local kilometers
of every place where you ship cement to make
01:02:31
concrete and whatnot um and when you look at sort
of where the emissions are um they're at a very
01:02:37
specific part of the chain which is effectively
impossible to mitigate so you have to have a level
01:02:42
of material science um you know improvement to
really move things away from cement altogether
01:02:48
well just knowing that you're going to have to
have the incentives that a government creates
01:02:53
to pull that forward another example is when you
look at like manufacturing all the [ __ ] that we
01:02:57
all love you know i don't care whether you like
[ __ ] normal pants or hemp pants you know when
01:03:02
you go back and you look at how h m makes those
pants there's our high temperature processes that
01:03:07
are burning fossil fuels they're emitting
all kinds of really terrible junk into the
01:03:12
environment and so it doesn't matter whether
you're vegan per se you know you're not going
01:03:16
to go around unclothed you're not going to not
use spoons right so all of that the totality
01:03:21
of all of that we need to completely reinvent
high temperature manufacturing that's not going
01:03:26
to happen unless the government steps in because
like for example take something as simple as steal
01:03:31
you know it's a tragedy of the commons right
i mean basically is if if if no individual can
01:03:37
make an uh a major impact uh maybe they won't
freeberg you think we have all the technology
01:03:44
we need to do this and it's really just a
matter of incentives and deployment right
01:03:47
now in terms of global warming or stemming global
warming is that a correct statement that we have
01:03:51
the technology we just haven't deployed correct
correct and i think it's 100 percent it's unpacked
01:03:57
well what i will say is we have the science
the um the engineering and the resourcing
01:04:04
uh and then the market are the are the kind of
unresolved right and so resourcing is capital
01:04:10
the market can be created artificially by putting
in place government subsidies or having the
01:04:14
government be a customer or you just have to wait
a long enough period of time if you listen to um
01:04:22
the tim ferriss interview with coke uh which
one was it charles coke he talks about how
01:04:29
ultimately consumers will vote with their dollars
if climate change is real and global warming is
01:04:34
starting to have an effect on planet earth and
we're seeing that right we're seeing people make
01:04:38
a switch to a vegetarian diet we're seeing people
buy teslas we're seeing people make choices for
01:04:42
sustainability so the free market is resolving
and will resolve climate change is the argument
01:04:48
that some libertarians might make um and then i
think be it is that true in your mind freeberg
01:04:54
do you buy that i think it's i i i'll be
honest with you i've been [ __ ] shocked
01:04:57
by how many people are choosing to pay a premium
for vegetarian meat alternatives i was wrong on
01:05:02
this i bet against these companies eight years
ago i didn't bet against them but i chose not
01:05:06
to bet for them because i made the argument
consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper
01:05:10
and taste as good and i was wrong um millions of
consumers are going to burger king and buying a
01:05:16
veggie burger now which wasn't the case and we're
seeing this across the world yes out of a crisis
01:05:21
of consciousness right like you're saying
that's right it's a it's a behavioral change
01:05:25
wow because they yeah that's what they want in the
market that's what they want to spend their money
01:05:29
on they want to spend their money on having a
nicer world it's just like when people will spend
01:05:34
a premium amount of money on a nice suit it makes
them look good and feel good it's the same sort
01:05:38
of notion i i feel good when i'm buying a tesla i
feel good when i'm buying a veggie burger instead
01:05:43
of a meat burger knowing that it is harming
my people around me i couldn't bring myself
01:05:48
to buy a carbon-based ice engine uh recently i was
thinking about you know if i'm in tahoe and i need
01:05:56
to go off-road or there's no conditions i need
to have a car for and i want to i'm picking up
01:06:00
the model y with the dual engine and putting
snow tires on it as opposed to getting the new
01:06:05
you know jeep wrangler or the uh the new defender
but whether it's biomanufacturing or um you know
01:06:13
uh synthetic meets um or i think we're not just
in a point where we have to create luxury markets
01:06:19
i think we are going to disrupt commodity markets
um and i think we're going to do that this decade
01:06:24
and it's going to blow people's [ __ ] mind um
when everything you're eating looks tastes and
01:06:29
and feels the same and it's cheaper and it
was just made in a more sustainable way using
01:06:33
bioengineering which is kind of you know the
ability to to write the physical world with
01:06:38
software except it's realized through genomics
and it's it's an incredible thing that we're
01:06:42
doing how much of this is the generational shift
i mean gen x seemed pretty absorbed with our own
01:06:47
projects and a little bit of consciousness
but these millennials are now getting into
01:06:51
their 30s and they're 35 years old these the
oldest millennials and they seem to be incredibly
01:06:55
focused on the environment and doing what's right
this is a generational shift in your mind freebird
01:07:01
no i i think this is just the slow march of
of humanity's ability to master our world in
01:07:07
technology and uh you know uh look let me just
give you a scenario chamath kind of says we're
01:07:14
going to decarbonize the atmosphere if we could
build an algae or a seaweed from scratch or
01:07:21
using some basis and use software to resolve
what's the right sort of seaweed to create
01:07:25
that will grow like crazy in the oceans when it
gets heavy it sinks to the bottom of the ocean
01:07:30
and it literally just pulls carbon out of the
atmosphere and drops to these 40 000 foot or you
01:07:35
know 4 000 foot deep kind of wells we have already
built around 70 of planet earth we have the tools
01:07:42
to do that again the engineering and the capital
to do that and then the market for is there a
01:07:46
market for that it doesn't if if governments are
like it's a crisis let's put a billion dollars
01:07:51
into this like we did in the apollo program we
will get that done in five years i mean there's
01:07:56
just there's no shortage of tools and science to
be able to resolve that sort of a problem today
01:08:01
much like we're about to produce a coronavirus
vaccine in a matter of months after discovering
01:08:06
the virus which is unprecedented so our ability
to kind of read genomics and write genomics and
01:08:13
as a result create biological machines that can
do things in the physical world and self-propagate
01:08:17
gives us this incredible toolkit humans never had
at its disposal before and it will be the way that
01:08:23
will resolve climate change and it will in the
meantime we're going to bridge the gap between
01:08:27
here and there by creating these nice luxury
markets by the way here's a and so on here's
01:08:31
an incredible example so when you look at sort of
where um you know methane is a really problematic
01:08:36
greenhouse gas and most of the methane emissions
are from cows but it's from enteric fermentation
01:08:42
which is you know fancy language for burping and
what's incredible is there are now efforts to use
01:08:49
crispr to genetically engineer um you know cows
that don't necessarily have that same gut biome
01:08:57
you know dynamic so that you're burping methane
that there's also feed that you can actually give
01:09:02
a cow that'll minimize methane emissions burping
by 30 or 40 percent all these things are to your
01:09:07
point david they're they're so fantastical if
you think about it but they're possible today and
01:09:13
we just need to organize and get us kind
of like a center of gravity around these
01:09:17
things and they'll happen can we get can
we get jason the uh human version of that
01:09:23
does it also cover tooting
does it work for flatulence uh interestingly chris sacca tweeted about
investing in a company called running tide
01:09:32
which grows kelp and uh will suck carbon
from the atmosphere i mean it just sinks
01:09:36
it to the ocean floor and they're selling carbon
offsets by putting seaweed on the ocean floor so
01:09:41
such such a no-brainer right i mean like the
ocean is so big and it's this per and like
01:09:46
it's not getting in the way of land well you don't
have to go figure out licenses and rights you got
01:09:50
you got to basically get carbon to go into the
ocean and so then you basically need an organism
01:09:54
that can grow and self-propagate quickly and
radically accumulate uh biomass in the ocean
01:10:00
and then figure out how to get rid of it so the
best way to get rid of it is have it sink it's
01:10:04
got to be some sort of seaweed or kelp or algae
and you just put it in the open ocean and it'll
01:10:08
propagate i mean that's just such a great obvious
us and there's a thousand scenarios like that that
01:10:13
i think you know we're gonna kind of creatively uh
come up with and results nuclear not even on the
01:10:19
discussion freeberg i'm curious like is it just
too tainted the work i've done the work i've done
01:10:24
on nuclear it used to cost something like some
number of dollars to get a nuclear power plant
01:10:30
through the regulatory barriers in the united
states and now it is so cost prohibitive it's
01:10:34
something like 10 billion dollars now from maybe
you know 100 million uh you know two decades ago
01:10:40
there's something about the regulatory barriers
yeah well there's a huge there's a huge nimby
01:10:44
problem right i mean who who wants a nuclear power
plant in their backyard nobody i mean nobody wants
01:10:50
it jason but but i agree with like the larger
point here that the solution to the problem is
01:10:54
ultimately going to be all these new technologies
these innovative solutions not making people feel
01:10:59
bad for consuming and you know being alive um you
know you you look at tesla and it's moving the
01:11:07
whole world to electric cars not with a government
mandate but just by creating a better car
01:11:12
and so it's ultimately going to be technology
companies you know increasing the solution set
01:11:18
um and giving people new choices that's how
we're going to ultimately solve the problem
01:11:23
and interesting in the news new scale is creating
small nuclear reactors and they just got approval
01:11:31
this is a the portland-based new scale powers they
had a small modular reactor that has been approved
01:11:38
by the us department of energy for a site in
eastern idaho we'll see if that ever comes online
01:11:44
but it does seem like small nuclear reactors
could solve part of the nimby problem in that
01:11:48
they're smaller so if something were to go
wrong we would have some ability to contain uh
01:11:54
or have a smaller footprint in a disaster-like
situation let's wrap with the overton window
01:11:59
uh chamath talked about it closing and saks uh
there was a good article the taxonomy of fear
01:12:05
uh that you started with the group tell us a
little bit about that article a taxonomy of fear
01:12:09
by emily yuff i think it's yeah what's her name
yeah she's a writer for the atlantic who wrote
01:12:13
this again it's called taxonomy of fear and
persuasion i think it's an important article
01:12:18
what it does is analyze uh cancel culture
and the language that's used to cancel people
01:12:24
and um one of the you know one of the things
she diagnoses is what she calls safety ism
01:12:30
which is anytime somebody doesn't like um
what you know an idea or what somebody else
01:12:36
is saying they claim that their safety is
being threatened by that idea and it's kind
01:12:41
of invoking these magic words that hr you know
has come up with where you know if anyone is
01:12:47
is creating an unsafe work environment or an
unsafe college campus well the the source of
01:12:53
the problem has to be removed immediately and so
this is the the language of cancer culture and
01:13:00
you know the problem with it is that it doesn't
really matter what the intent of the person was or
01:13:07
um you know intense sort of irrelevant or
whether the objection is reasonable or not
01:13:13
you know whether it it it causes uh it whether
actually you know threatens anyone's safety
01:13:18
and so there's an example of this when um 50
prominent sort of writers intellectuals wrote
01:13:24
a letter to harper's magazine including jk rowling
and um matt iglesias who's a co-founder of uh vox
01:13:33
and so there was a you know there's a trans writer
uh there's a writer on who's a trans uh person
01:13:41
uh at vox who claims that her her safety was
threatened but because one of the co-founders had
01:13:46
signed this letter the letter didn't discuss trans
issues it was simply the fact that uh iglesias had
01:13:53
signed it along with jk rowling and so jk rowling
apparently is is um you know yeah i i miss this
01:14:02
part of harry potter but apparently the the
trans movement is yeah heart position women
01:14:08
who were born uh women who were born biologically
female are different than women who transition
01:14:17
right so right and that's her position but her position is being attributed to
glaciers by association yeah exactly and so
01:14:27
yeah i would be like saying that i'm in
support of trump just because i'm on this
01:14:30
podcast with you sense to be clear yes it's
contamination it's contamination by association
01:14:38
um you know cancer culture and uh this
one everybody being scared of words and this will be if if trump wins in november
it'll be because this whole thing um
01:14:52
just gets too much for too many people there
is a massive plurality of people in the middle
01:14:57
who think this overreaching sensitivity by
the extreme left and the extreme right are
01:15:05
uh are just completely out to
lunch and um 100 percent agree and and i and i think that by the way the extreme
left and the extreme right they should all just
01:15:17
get a room and just have one big huge orgy because
they're all just useless [ __ ] wits anyways all
01:15:22
of them both of them on the extreme light like
when antifa and the alt-right are fighting
01:15:27
with each other it's like this like sexual
tension that they just need to release somehow
01:15:30
um thanks for tuning in to the all-in pocket i
i mean i mean most people are in the middle most
01:15:37
people don't need to have this like us or them you
know it's it's it's like uh you're not allowed to
01:15:43
have an opinion like i actually learn more from
people that i disagree with just by hearing them
01:15:48
and not trying to judge them and i think that
most of us as well have our views that are sort
01:15:53
of moderately in the middle so for example there
was a usc professor that got sanctioned because
01:15:59
he was trying to he was teaching a language class
and he used the chinese word for that which sounds
01:16:04
like the n word and i think he didn't preface
it correctly or what have you but then you know
01:16:08
he apologized he was suspended and folks wrote a
letter now everybody has a right the the people
01:16:16
who felt uh offended have the right to write the
letter the administration had the right to react
01:16:23
and then i think people read that article and
think to themselves is this actually the uh has
01:16:29
the pendulum swung too far or not and and mark my
words if people feel that the pendulum has swung
01:16:35
too far they will elect donald trump because he is
the complete antithesis of giving a [ __ ] about
01:16:43
any of this stuff so that would be the bellwether
no that's exactly right so i think it's really
01:16:48
important i think that there's a large part of
the country that feels that trump is a shield
01:16:53
not a sword that he is their protector against
this this type of cancel culture and i know trump
01:16:59
seems like an instigator and he's very threatening
to a lot of people on the other side but
01:17:03
again to these people he's more of a shield and i
think it's it's not just the fact that he speaks
01:17:07
out and denounces cancer culture that makes him
a hero to these people it's his his superpower
01:17:12
is his uncancel ability it's this you know it's
the fact that the left has done everything they
01:17:18
can to try and get rid of this guy to impeach him
what have you yeah and he's and he keeps surviving
01:17:23
and so it's it's his very you know uncanceled
ability that makes him such a hero to these
01:17:27
people and i think this is the thing that the the
left or the media doesn't quite understand is that
01:17:33
denouncing trump in ever more hysterical terms
doesn't you know it doesn't work because it kind
01:17:39
of feeds it actually hurts it actually hurts it
adds more right it adds more people right to his
01:17:46
cohort who say you're overreacting right and
hystericalness of overreacting like i tweeted
01:17:51
i've been on this you know mini uh tweet effort
to tell people listen there are chromebooks in the
01:17:59
world they're very cheap 90 of the americans
are excuse me on the internet at high speed
01:18:05
and there are so many online resources for you to
get ahead in life go try to be a marketer go do
01:18:11
khan academy go learn ux and design these are the
clearest paths into the technology industry and i
01:18:17
get hysterical liberals who say people don't have
access to the internet people don't have access to
01:18:22
chromebooks and people don't have the free time
or the motivation to improve their lot in life
01:18:26
and it's like are you who are you talking about
because ninety percent of the country has access
01:18:32
to the internet and uses it uh already and if
you go and do a search for a chromebook on ebay
01:18:38
use one you could find one for 50 to 150 bucks so
we have this narrative that people cannot rise up
01:18:44
and people cannot improve themselves and every
time i say i believe people can improve themselves
01:18:48
people say that i'm uh like a racist that i
believe that people could improve themselves and
01:18:53
it just makes me further away from the democratic
party it makes me further away from the left that
01:18:58
i think i think this i'm going to put out a crazy
um idea which is that i think if donald trump
01:19:06
wins in a meaningful way in november i don't
think he will but if he does the actual
01:19:13
silver lining for for everybody is i think
the republican party will disintegrate
01:19:18
and the democratic party will disintegrate and
in its place i think you'll probably have three
01:19:24
or four parties and i think that that would be
amazing so it's the burn it all down vote which
01:19:30
was peter thiel's idea in the beginning
was like i think sacks and teal when they
01:19:34
coordinated this trump election it was
all burn it down burn it down right sex that was your star chamber discussion with teal
would you want guys wanted to burn it all down
01:19:42
i think you're trying to i think what you're doing
is contamination by association there yeah to
01:19:49
college just because thiel right when's the last
time you talked to peter till no peter's a friend
01:19:53
of mine but i don't but again and and i agree with
him about some things i just agree with him about
01:19:57
other things but this is it you did this idea but
but this idea that we can't hang out with people
01:20:04
you know or or that hanging out with people means
that we must endorse every view they have like why
01:20:09
is it even relevant that you know i'm friends with
peter look we are like for example we're friends
01:20:14
in our group chat with a couple guys who are very
far right we're not going to name who they are
01:20:20
but i would say that i think that the group
chat is better off for them being able to say
01:20:26
what they believe and push back and just like
there's a bunch of us who are in the middle
01:20:30
and we waffle back and forth between the left
and the right and then there are folks that
01:20:33
are more on the far right our far left uh or
on the left so i i just think that we forget
01:20:40
that there is enormous value in the diversity of
thought um and and people think that there is uh
01:20:49
some sort of safety and conformity and in fact
i will tell you um that's actually the exact
01:20:56
opposite you're more likely to be in conflict
with someone that you are very similar to
01:21:03
because eventually you will always end up
competing for the exact same resource and
01:21:07
that resource becomes scarce if you are actually
spending time with people that are divergent
01:21:12
and different from you you actually end up not
competing for the same resources because you're
01:21:17
one second you're built differently so there's
just less conflict so this is why multi-party
01:21:23
systems work this is why you have less fighting
when there's you know in canada and um and europe
01:21:31
than you do in the united states because the
united states tries to reduce things down to
01:21:34
two choices and so we we all of a sudden like
just glom into these pools that are seemingly
01:21:40
similar and we just end up hating each other
freeburg any final thoughts on canceled culture
01:21:47
yeah i think it's just gonna be bad i i totally i totally agree with jamaat that if
trump wins the election this will be the reason um
01:21:57
that the same thing happened when the republicans
overplayed their hand with bill clinton right
01:22:01
and it was said at that time that you know clinton
was always very fortunate in who his enemies were
01:22:06
um because no matter you know what he did wrong
or how badly he screwed up his enemies always
01:22:11
made too big a deal of it they overreacted and
it played into his hands and i you know i have
01:22:16
to wonder if that's what's happening right now
with this whole cancel culture yeah all right
01:22:20
well we'll leave it at that we've gone over
an hour uh if you're listening to the all-in
01:22:24
podcast and you'd like to advertise uh it's
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01:22:30
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so send your advertising and guest requests to
tomorrow org breaking news right now there is a
01:22:45
tech crunch story that just broke while we're
on air can't stop wound stop social capital
01:22:50
just filed for its fourth spac uh if you're into
spax no that's not the that's the that's not the
01:22:56
article the article oh the article is launched is
spack and it's back as he spacks the world with
01:23:03
spax yeah we just announced three yeah oh you
just announced number three no no three three d
01:23:09
e and f oh d e and f got approved no yeah they're
filed out with the sec now yeah and when would d
01:23:15
e and f be available for people to buy shares
in it then is that like that 60 days uh 15 days
01:23:21
oh okay great all right well there you have it and
then you confirmed that the second spec was open
01:23:26
door right is that confirmed where is that that
was announced on tuesday yeah congratulations
01:23:31
on that thank you how do you feel about all
these people stealing your thunder with stacks
01:23:35
i think it's i don't know it's great no it's
it's great i think it's growing the market it's
01:23:40
good for entrepreneurs it's amazing i mean what
this is going to mean that companies with 50 to
01:23:45
150 million will be able to go public on a clear
path i hope so i i've said this before we've
01:23:50
gone from eight thousand public companies to four
thousand in 20 years so let's uh reverse the tide
01:23:55
let's go back double the number of companies
that's right i mean we should think
01:23:59
we should have gone up you would think
it would be in interest rates it has to yeah yeah all right well here we go uh please
for the love of god somebody convinced calm
01:24:08
robin hood thumbtack and data stacks to go public
because i've got kids to put their school uh all
01:24:14
right everybody for bestie c the rain man himself
david sacks and the queen of quinoa freed burgers
01:24:22
this is the all in podcast we'll see
you next time bye bye love you besties