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Four Reasons Why Gavin Newsom’s Presidential Chances are Dropping FAST - Nate Silver

July 08, 2026 / 00:59

This episode discusses Gavin Newsom's declining popularity in Democratic primary polls, the emergence of younger candidates like Jon Ossoff and AOC, and the implications for Newsom's campaign strategy.

The conversation highlights Newsom's drop from 25% to 15% in polls and from 33% to 22% on Polymarket. The hosts note that younger candidates are gaining traction among Democrats, which puts Newsom at a disadvantage.

Jon Ossoff's credentials as a candidate in Georgia are compared to Newsom's lack of experience in winning elections in competitive states. The discussion emphasizes the shift in Democratic preferences towards younger leadership.

Newsom's strategy of aligning with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden is critiqued, as it may not resonate with voters who are looking for change after recent electoral failures.

The hosts conclude that Newsom is in a defensive position and faces challenges in making a compelling argument for his candidacy.

TLDR

Gavin Newsom's poll numbers drop as younger candidates gain favor among Democrats, raising questions about his campaign strategy.

Episode

0:59

00:00:00

Newsom has fallen in Democratic primary polls from around 25% to 15%. He's fallen on Polymarket from like 33% to

00:00:08

22%. I think he was benefiting from some degree of name recognition, whereas now

00:00:14

Democrats see a candidate like Jon Ossoff in Georgia, another good-looking young guy, but like actually has

00:00:20

credential, which Newsom will never have of having won an election in a purple state. I think it's good that Democrats

00:00:27

are showing a bias toward younger candidates, right? Like that's a lot of what happened with Zoran, too. You know,

00:00:34

I wouldn't discount, by the way, someone like an AOC. I think ultimately Newsom has like a a hard argument to make. He's

00:00:41

arguing for continuity with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. He's embracing Joe Biden when that strategy

00:00:48

has failed electorally. I would argue in California, governance-wise as well. It

00:00:53

To me, it's like a I think Newsom is actually in a pretty defensive position.

Episode Highlights

Newsom's Decline in Polls
Newsom's support has plummeted from 25% to 15% in the Democratic primary.
“He's fallen on Polymarket from like 33% to 22%.”
@ 00m 06s
July 08, 2026
Younger Candidates Rising
Democrats are favoring younger candidates like Jon Ossoff over Newsom.
“It's good that Democrats are showing a bias toward younger candidates.”
@ 00m 27s
July 08, 2026
Newsom's Defensive Position
Newsom struggles to argue for continuity with Biden and Harris amid electoral failures.
“I think Newsom is actually in a pretty defensive position.”
@ 00m 56s
July 08, 2026

Episode Quotes

Democrats see a candidate like Jon Ossoff, another good-looking young guy.
Four Reasons Why Gavin Newsom’s Presidential Chances are Dropping FAST - Nate Silver
Newsom is actually in a pretty defensive position.
Four Reasons Why Gavin Newsom’s Presidential Chances are Dropping FAST - Nate Silver

Key Moments

Poll Decline00:02
Younger Candidates00:27
Defensive Position00:56