00:00:00
hold on let's see if we get saxon all right guys i guess sax isn't i guess sax is blowing it off because he's too
00:00:07
busy okay we'll start with that let's start start without sacks okay three two [Music]
00:00:23
and it says [Music] hey everybody hey everybody welcome to the all in podcast with us today the
00:00:36
queen of quinoa on fire in california which is also happens to be on fire sadly uh and the dictator chamoth
00:00:44
polyhapatia uh david sachs will not be joining us today he's too busy with his uh call it all in app oh i'm sorry it's
00:00:50
actually calling he put a c in front of it nobody collected the arguments it's callan callan callan his calendar
00:00:58
debuted this week um but saks will be uh if you're a sax stan i think sax is uh no we've done one
00:01:05
show without free break now we're doing one with outside yeah this will be the tax free episode it is a tax-free
00:01:11
episode all right so we got a lot of time here i'm here all too eager to take credit for call in
00:01:21
on twitter so don't pretend like you're not part of it now yeah yeah i can't believe it this guy is
00:01:33
complaining i'm leveraging the style licensing of the term all in to sacks and gotten paid like seven million
00:01:39
dollars in equity for him using our name oh my god i gave you guys so many shout
00:01:45
outs you know during the show i know he did because i listened to his uh interview with uh emily chang and i
00:01:52
listened to his thing with um axios with dan primack he's very david had a very good uh
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uh he was magnanimous presentation and then he was really magnanimous and kind so thanks sexy poop
00:02:05
and i i gave so much credit to j-cal i said that if it wasn't for jacob i never would have done this whole podcasting
00:02:10
thing because it was too hard i never would have figured it out and then you gave me a shout out because like of
00:02:14
organizing it so that we could all be friends on uh i like that i appreciate it very nice i have i actually haven't
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listened to it but give us a for those who don't know david sacks has created a podcasting slash casual audio app it's
00:02:27
called call in it's available for download for ios uh just coming out of private beta my understanding is uh
00:02:34
you're at somewhere around ten thousand uh folks yeah i mean there's a lot of sign ups
00:02:39
yesterday i haven't got all the latest numbers yet but um but yeah no it's it's you know it's taking off all the reviews
00:02:46
of it have been sort of rave reviews people are really excited about it fantastic but yeah look the concept is
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we're combining social audio with podcasting we call it social podcasting you've seen these apps where
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people create a room and they have these many to many conversations they tend to
00:03:02
be ephemeral no one really records or saves them and the quality of the conversation is it's a little bit
00:03:08
chaotic but we've taken that concept and put it in the service of creators who can now essentially like record their
00:03:15
pod in front of a live studio audience they can bring up the we call them callers they can bring up
00:03:20
people from the audience one by one to ask their questions it's much more organized and structured it's not a
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free-for-all to try and grab the mic and then once you record the episode you can
00:03:29
then go into post-production and the app can edit the transcript in order to edit
00:03:34
the episode and then you publish it and you can share it so is it like so it's basically like only fans but audio
00:03:41
it's only fans but for people who jump off at it's my birthday today god damn all
00:04:00
right happy birthday chamath we're going around the horn here everybody's patting
00:04:03
themselves on the back uh let's all take a moment to say what we like about your
00:04:08
moth okay great let's get back to the episode that was quick what do you know i was thinking about uh
00:04:15
you know what birthday present do i get for chamoth and then i was like gee what do
00:04:19
you get for the dictator who has everything i don't i don't know what does kim jungle in need
00:04:24
exactly let's hey guys wait there's actually an answer to that question apparently madeleine albright
00:04:39
once got kim jong-un a basketball signed by michael jordan for his birthday so apparently that is yeah apparently
00:04:46
that's what you get a dictator access you get them access to people they wouldn't normally have or a bone saw a
00:04:52
very very very old uh french burgundy uh ideally white but the white doesn't hold up as well but you know if you go
00:05:01
back it i mean i wonder if you could drink like a yesterday i had the two the two fills deutsche and muth
00:05:08
at my house and we had uh we drank 1996 salon no sorry 1997 salon clothes and then we
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drank a bottle of 1996 paul rogers or winston churchill champagne fabulous only champagne last night let's have us
00:05:24
we could also get you some planonium uh plunonium if you want to uh no guys guys
00:05:29
i don't want to take out some enemies i would like you to come and play poker next thursday you [ __ ] and then i was
00:05:34
just bring a bottle of uh bring a really nice bottle of wine or champagne we'll drink it that's fine oh my god i got
00:05:39
cases of terrible wine i'm gonna bring them no you [ __ ] did you hear what this [ __ ] did oh my god
00:05:45
shows up this piece of [ __ ] showed up last week and he's like here are these fantastic
00:05:50
bottles and i looked at this like 1985 caymus and i'm like that's not a good year
00:05:56
right in the right of the garbage it gets better it gets better he has two bottles and so he gives him to joshua
00:06:05
and joshua looks at them and joshua doesn't know what to think and he looks like
00:06:09
i'm like just like you know and so josh was like wow david thanks freedberg this is incredible i
00:06:13
appreciate it and then freeburg does the [ __ ] most brutal thing open it open it
00:06:18
josh was so appalled he opened it and poured it on cherry i threw it out he took it right to the
00:06:24
other garden no he said where did you uh find this he goes oh it was in my basement in the hot tempered humid
00:06:30
[ __ ] san francisco weather for 10 years yeah i had no idea so i moved you know i moved like two weeks ago and i
00:06:37
went to the basement to like get all my boxes and i'm like i've got like hundreds of bottles of wine that i have
00:06:42
not seen in years and i started getting not temperature controlled right next to
00:06:46
the furnace they weren't lying flat i'm like these things are all like they're all corey they're all they're all cool
00:06:50
and there's like stuff in the 80s from the 90s yeah so josh took them and poured them over the arugula salad he
00:06:56
didn't want to see any arugula no he didn't really remove the [ __ ] vegetables and herbs in the garden he
00:07:01
basically cleaned him in the drain shield do not bring any more wine to my house oh my god i'm bringing wine for
00:07:09
your dog if your dog's coming back with nat my dogs are coming back today yeah they're flying backwards all i have to
00:07:14
say about that game is thank god mr beast has a hundred million followers oh youtube
00:07:20
wrestling r.i.p mr beast all right you know by the way i don't want to say give a shout out mr beast is [ __ ]
00:07:26
incredible what a great deal what an incredible entrepreneur what a great human being
00:07:31
yeah um i mean for 23 years old to be that sufficient 23. 23. this guy i thought he
00:07:39
was guy this guy's clearly on track to being an enormous figure in culture oh he's going to be a [ __ ]
00:07:45
multi-multi-billionaire determined hard-working smart kind good clever ambitious
00:07:53
great and his ideas he's creative and he's just a good human mystery was one of the most impressive people i've met
00:08:00
in a really really really long totally agree i mean he and i had been texting for a long time on twitter and then and
00:08:05
then just on text but then to finally meet him and we had talked on the phone and we had zoomed before i'd never met
00:08:11
him in prison but what an incredible oh why don't we have him as the bestie gusty on the path he totally like he
00:08:16
totally with the group too and he was great just funny you know what we should do is we should all round everybody up
00:08:20
we should fly to uh to greenville where we should surprise him yeah yeah do a little game at his channel
00:08:27
oh here's an idea what we could do is we could tweak phil hellmuth and just re have a game and replace phil in the game
00:08:33
with him as our new bestie oh my god that's awesome let's replace the music who replaced the
00:08:41
kind of like a better bestie in many ways okay by the way are we skipping next week to record at the symposium on
00:08:47
monday or are we going to do next week and then also do monday no double down okay i double down yeah
00:08:53
let's double down all right listen to cover good um good notification we're doing our first all together
00:09:00
recording of the all in pod a week from monday at the tpb symposium no reason the
00:09:06
production board the production board no reason to publicize it but i'm excited because it works it's a
00:09:11
closed event what is the purpose of the event i just get together a bunch of scientists investors entrepreneurs and
00:09:18
ceos and um it's a day of science talks mostly and then some business talks on the next
00:09:23
day but we're having a really fun event the night before with poker our friends are all coming to play poker and we're
00:09:27
going to record we're coming for the science day i'm there for the full year i'm staying for the science day too i
00:09:31
want to learn so the poker night is going to have poker and we're gonna record the all in pod
00:09:36
live or together in person for the first first time yeah that should be really cool um and for those of you wondering
00:09:43
you know we're going to do our own all in summit which will be probably like a hundred or two hundred
00:09:50
iconoclastic people uh and we're going to probably do that in the first quarter or second quarter of next year uh
00:09:56
postman we gotta choose a date you know my people are going crazy because you won't give them a date
00:10:00
well right now i think we should do it in uh here we go in rome okay so italy rome stocks wants miami
00:10:10
i'm telling you guys they're hotels sickest hotel in the world and i'll tell you why the people you have never seen
00:10:18
these people ever people are amazing amazing tremendous people they are great it attracts the hottest people i i
00:10:28
mean it's [ __ ] right we're not doing it based on aesthetics we're doing it on ideas chamomile it's not just aesthetics
00:10:33
but people aren't going to go to rome you know miami the good thing about miami is we know it'll be open no matter
00:10:38
what right you know we can't count yeah we can host our own super spreader event
00:10:42
fantastic no i mean we're uh host the uh the code conference kara swisher's conference is
00:10:49
at the end of the month and sky and brook and i are hosting our poker again and i was like is there any way this
00:10:54
conference is going to occur and if it does occur what happens if they're i mean obviously everybody's going to be
00:10:59
vac everybody's going to be mac masked i don't know if they're going to do testimonials all right
00:11:04
you think everyone should be mass at the conference they're going to be unless well they're
00:11:08
going to be because it's indoors and there's a breakout event amongst the vaccinated which can happen
00:11:15
between delta and zetta too you're uh you're you're going to be forced what do you think sacks well i just think how do
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you effectively have a meeting with people whenever indoors when everyone's wearing a mask i just think that's and i
00:11:31
indoors not during the dinner and stuff look i mean i think for poker but we are
00:11:35
testing everyone on entry all three days okay that that makes sense to me right we do a rapid test at the door and so
00:11:42
but then once you've done the test and someone's negative why would you need a mass once you go in i don't know about
00:11:47
it every day the stupidest thing is they do stuff like make you wear the mask but
00:11:52
then take it off for dinner like what you you can't get kovu when your mouth is full i mean how does that work it
00:11:58
makes no sense that's the whole that makes no sense put your mouth let's do risk assessment here and then take it
00:12:02
off when you sit down three feet away it's it's security theater well let's do let's do risk assessment none of us
00:12:08
would go to an indoor event if it wasn't fully vaxxed correct would anybody attend an indoor event of
00:12:14
this nature hundreds of people if they didn't have a vax requirement i would yes
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i don't you would i i well i mean what i would care about is i wouldn't attend it
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if people weren't all being tested on the entrance okay well i'm trying to do just on
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yeah to eliminate um transmission so for you to go to an event you would have to be vac and
00:12:35
tested that day morning of rapid test yeah look i mean i think in general everyone's kind of
00:12:39
standard it's like makes your vac because it reduces the likelihood of transmission but still like it's not
00:12:43
stopping transmission clearly i'd rather what i care more about is is point of um entry testing which is what
00:12:50
we're doing at our symposium i just want everyone to get tested upon entry what would you do let's talk about
00:12:55
something important okay all right listen i think the most interesting thing going on in our
00:13:00
industry this week is elizabeth holmes trial has begun um jury selection uh started this week and it's going to
00:13:08
cover 12 counts of fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud over false claims she made about the blood test results
00:13:14
from theranos um they uh have now selected a jury of 12 northern california residents consisting
00:13:21
of seven men and five women it took two days to question around 100 potential jurors about their answers to a 28-page
00:13:27
questionnaire that included news outlets they read what news outlets are at if they knew
00:13:33
any witnesses and had any negative medical experiencing experiences and it was complicated um
00:13:42
to get these because it is impossible to not know about it and now it seems the uh interesting thing is
00:13:51
elizabeth holmes uh who worked on this company for two dec close to two decades and was involved in this fraud from
00:13:56
start to finish is now uh taking the position that she uh was under the control of her business
00:14:05
partner sunny bowani uh and that he had been abusing her and controlling her what are your thoughts on and so he's
00:14:16
being tried separately by the way they're gonna be tried in sequential order so whenever this trial ends then
00:14:21
he gets to um get tried what are your thoughts on uh if she will be convicted and her defense strategy
00:14:29
i i think this is more this is like less about the specific um evidence against her
00:14:37
as much as it's um and it's much more right now about the um whole silicon valley fake it before you
00:14:45
make it um approach to entrepreneurship and you know we all hear this from um you know all the entrepreneurial kind
00:14:52
of advisors and you know experience stories of experience and stories of success that in order to kind of achieve
00:14:59
success as an entrepreneur you really have to oversell and promise and create an incredible narrative about where your
00:15:05
business is headed and in many cases that gets ahead of you now the public the general public that doesn't operate
00:15:10
within silicon valley with as much breadth as we do i think they hear the stories of the
00:15:15
adam newmans and we work and the collapse and elizabeth holmes and this this trevor milton guy and nicola
00:15:21
but um there's thousands of these other sorts of smaller stories where a vc rolls his eyes where the first board
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meeting after raising money is like wait a second we're actually going to be half
00:15:30
our forecast when we raise money or the numbers are going to be way below or the
00:15:33
product doesn't actually work as we presented it sorry i don't think i've ever funded a company where that hasn't
00:15:38
been the case exactly and so i think that's the that's the the the big question right off is like does this
00:15:44
trail does this trial kind of indict the way silicon valley operates and the storytelling models and the narrative
00:15:51
models there are examples of these people getting a little too far ahead of their skis and maybe you can argue they
00:15:57
could perceive something to be non-fraudulent while other people can you know kind of perceive it to be
00:16:01
fraudulent but don't we see this kind of broadly in silicon valley and doesn't this kind of bring up a question on like
00:16:06
are all startups now and is the industry going to have a shift as a result of this trial in terms of behavior as
00:16:11
investors and as entrepreneurs and how you tell stories how you diligence etc etc this is this is only going to get
00:16:17
meaningfully worse um i don't know if elizabeth holmes committed fraud or not i think that you
00:16:23
know these folks will be able to figure that out in detail but here's something that i do know pretty
00:16:30
precisely which is the amount of money that's trying to get into silicon valley is going
00:16:34
exponentially up yeah and as that happens you guys now see it every day where there are firms whose entire
00:16:42
business now is just to literally write a check every day they're closing deals every single day
00:16:49
they're doing zero diligence and so what that's going to create is an incentive for founders particularly those whose
00:16:57
backs are against the wall or who's doing something that's highly speculative and hard to diligence
00:17:03
to stretch the truth to get the capital and it's impossible for guys like us to actually step in and do diligence on a
00:17:10
lot of these companies even if you actually have time but then if the competitive dynamic is such that
00:17:15
you don't even have the time because somebody else beside you is going to rip in a check with by just meeting somebody
00:17:21
um and you know quote unquote having done the work on their own which is impossible because they're not you don't
00:17:26
have access to somebody's you know financial books this problem is only going to get worse and so i think we as
00:17:32
an industry just have to realize that there's going to be an incentive to lie there's going to be an incentive to
00:17:40
stretch the truth and it's because of the amount of money that's available and yes the lack of
00:17:46
diligence that's happening sax is this an example uh in the case of elizabeth holmes
00:17:52
of somebody being delusional as a strength or somebody committing fraud as a crime
00:17:59
it's probably both now look i think you guys are giving a little bit too much credence to the
00:18:04
media narrative that theranos is a quote-unquote silicon valley failure the truth of the matter is there was no
00:18:11
major silicon valley vc firm in fact not even a minor one that invested in theranos as far as i know there is no
00:18:19
vc on the board of theranos we've talked about this before it was a bunch of kind
00:18:23
of grand poobah types and there was no one who actually had the technical competence
00:18:28
to do diligence and so elizabeth holmes isn't so much an example of silicon valley as somebody
00:18:34
who was selling silicon valley she was selling the promise of silicon valley she was
00:18:39
selling the idea that this was going to be a deca corn or a centicorn to people who are too unwitting to know and i see
00:18:46
you know tim draper a lot people are really hanging their hat on to the fact that tim draper wrote a seed investment
00:18:53
to elizabeth holmes i you know that that really is very different you know when you write a seed investment apparently
00:18:58
elizabeth holmes was like a neighbor of his she their daughters were friends is my understanding and she clearly was an
00:19:04
impressive person you know she came across impressively in person she obviously cast a pretty big reality distortion
00:19:11
field to a lot of you know smart people so you know she's the type of person who you would
00:19:18
write potentially a sea check to just based on you know a talent bet the fact that she that later chose to engage in
00:19:24
and fraud i don't think that's like tim draper's fault and it doesn't make this like a silicon valley fraud again um you
00:19:31
know show us the vc firm that was hoodwinked by this um but you are seeing david
00:19:36
this trend of the the firms coming in and not doing diligence not having audit rights not having information rights not
00:19:43
doing proper diligence and basically relying on the previous investors right how troubling is that and what are you
00:19:48
doing to protect crafts lps yeah so so look i think there's a big difference between going into
00:19:55
uh a board meeting and finding out the projections were inflated because like frankly we
00:20:00
all take projections with a grain of salt right but versus the founder lying about the past right so people are
00:20:08
always going to put the rosiest picture or they're going to puff up what the future is going to look like and it's up
00:20:13
to you as the investor to determine if that's true or not but they cannot lie about the past they cannot lie about
00:20:19
what their revenue was last year what contracts they signed before you invested that is fraud right and that is
00:20:25
what that's where elizabeth holmes crossed the line she wasn't just painting a rosy picture
00:20:30
of you know what the technology would look like you know years from now she was lying about their capabilities at the
00:20:36
time people were investing that is the line you cannot cross um look we conduct diligence we you know try to look at
00:20:43
wheat financials we try to make sure that the numbers are all true um you know frankly we're not investing in
00:20:49
things that involve a tremendous amount of technical risk a lot of technology risks so we always use the product
00:20:55
before we invest the idea that the product would be faked i think it would be hard to perpetrate that kind of fraud
00:21:01
with the sas company but um so look i mean that's interesting you bring that up i just
00:21:06
dropped a link into the uh zoom chat co-founder and former ceo of palo alto based startup technology company
00:21:12
headspin charged with securities fraud and wire fraud and uh this guy lachwani 45 from santa
00:21:20
clara county basically was lying about their arr in assassin's company and this is they raised a bunch of money so
00:21:29
this is an example of something happen in every company yeah it can happen at yeah
00:21:33
i think i don't think you're inoculated just because you invest in sas my point is if you have a person that's willing
00:21:39
to rip in a check a hundred million dollars three hours after meeting you asking for
00:21:44
no diligence at some point david your back is gonna be against the wall because you're gonna have to justify to
00:21:49
your lps why you aren't in some of these theoretically good deals right and some of them will become
00:21:55
fraudulent they'll just turn out to be it's just the laws of distribution so it's a bit of a prisoner's dilemma
00:22:00
you're saying i mean if you don't do how do you you have to get deals done and you're up against people who won't
00:22:06
do diligence no it actually comes down to something different which is then you have to differentiate with real brand
00:22:12
meaning if somebody really wants you on the cap table they will absolutely slow everything down to get you correct so
00:22:21
for example like let's let's assume like it's mike moritz i'll use up there is nobody in the world i think
00:22:26
who's not a complete buffoon [ __ ] who wouldn't slow his process or her process
00:22:31
down to get mike to be on their board and so if you're willing to basically just scuttle an entire process
00:22:39
um and just take the fastest money i think it actually says something that there is more risk
00:22:46
in backing somebody like you than somebody that wouldn't slow down so or right so then you know the problem is
00:22:51
there's fewer there's fewer and fewer mike morrises in the world you know i think saks is one of those people i
00:22:56
think peter thiel is another kind of person you know bill gurley is another kind of person so there are these people
00:23:02
in our industry where i think that you will um slow things down and i do think allow these folks to
00:23:08
do diligence and i think there will be less fraud in general for that cohort but if your platform becomes one that's
00:23:14
just about ripping money in and i think the late stages are roughly this they're all it's all brand independent
00:23:20
because the money's the same the valuations are the same freebird freebird doesn't it introduce the risk of the
00:23:28
retail investor you know we're seeing more retail participation via syndicates um you know via um you know one-off
00:23:36
investments online kind of marketplaces and also specs where the retail investor
00:23:41
relies on you know some of these kind of bigger institutional or perhaps some name that gets some carried interest in
00:23:48
an investment doing the diligence and if the activity level is going up and the dollars are flowing in and the
00:23:56
margin of error is increasing you know is there not some inevitable kind of sec backlash and consideration
00:24:02
around how are private companies ultimately raising money um and how much they are disclosing and
00:24:08
we kind of face this i can uh yeah regularly yeah i can address this as a syndicate
00:24:13
lead you know we only take accredited investor money at this time and so anything that happens is with obviously
00:24:19
sophisticated people the top four percent of americans investing in companies and
00:24:24
in our diligence now we have seen a spike in what i'll call um uh massaging uh or painting the picture
00:24:32
in a way that i'm not comfortable with and we have maybe tripled the amount of time we're putting into diligence now
00:24:38
because i really care about my reputation and maybe 20 30 percent of the companies we wind up after initially
00:24:45
wanting to invest maybe giving them an offer getting an allocation um in recent history 20 30 percent were winding up
00:24:51
backing out during the diligence process because uh their revenue was not software based
00:24:57
there was a hundred thousand in consulting revenue for me it's like if you're gonna you know make these kind of
00:25:03
decisions early on in the company i think it's indicative of future fraud or future
00:25:07
um moral ethical issues so we're sitting out in a lot of cases there are uh public platforms now republic and
00:25:15
seed invest which i know are also increasing their um diligence process because there's so
00:25:21
many newcomers to the space and i think there's a level i'll be quite frank here
00:25:24
of entitlement amongst founders that is being um let's say uh encouraged unintentionally by the lack of diligence
00:25:34
that's going on people are not taking the process as seriously as they did 10 years ago or even five years ago
00:25:40
well let me yeah look i i i agree i think the the diligence you're doing is really good and um and here's where i
00:25:46
agree with with chamoth um so we have seen this trend in our industry of the private equity money coming in in
00:25:52
greater volumes and greater you know earlier and earlier and faster and faster right and it started with
00:25:59
you know you have these um like frankly like public company investors were looking at
00:26:04
the uh i the value at ipo relative to the last private round and they saw wow there's like 2 3x mark up here for one
00:26:11
year those are phenomenal returns let's arb that by getting into the last private round then they look at the
00:26:16
second last private round they're like wait there's a big return there so they keep moving earlier and earlier to r
00:26:21
about that return but to jamaa's point it's just they're applying a financial model where they're
00:26:27
not in the diligence business they're just um and and i think they just see like fraud is a cost of doing business
00:26:32
right something they can that's exactly model out with the portfolio but but the only reason they can model it
00:26:38
out that way and have the fraud be an acceptable and predictable sort of cost of doing business is because you had
00:26:45
these firms in our industry who actually did diligence at the seed at the series
00:26:50
a right yes and now and now the private equity guys they're moving so early they're actually even now doing the
00:26:56
they're moving all the way to series a so no one's doing the diligence and so so so that is that is a risk i think
00:27:03
because it might actually change things and this is where bringing back to elizabeth holmes
00:27:08
i think it's important here that there's a conviction i think she should do time
00:27:13
this was clearly a major fraud big time fraud and even if she didn't directly perpetrated on silicon valley vcs i
00:27:20
think the message to the industry would be absolutely horrible if she gets away with it and frankly i'm a little
00:27:25
concerned she's going to get away with it um you know because she is incredibly charismatic john kerry was saying on a
00:27:31
cnbc hit that don't underestimate her charisma and ability to snow people and this bengali defense and she just had a
00:27:40
baby which you know people don't want to discuss because it seems like it's sexist but
00:27:45
she is a svengali herself who will manipulate people in the i like the way you say that
00:27:51
she's a strange like uh i think you mean sven golly but yeah right now what do you handicap her likelihood of
00:28:00
conviction i i think it's probably like a 50 50. and i think so so here's here's the
00:28:05
thing when she was running this company she wanted everyone to believe she was steve jobs she even did the media tour
00:28:10
with the turtleneck she wanted everyone to know that she was a jobsee and micromanager who made every decision was
00:28:15
responsible for the success now that she's on trial she wants us to believe that she wasn't calling the shots she
00:28:20
wasn't the person 9 voting power in the company yeah look yes you know this is sort of the the
00:28:27
romy and michelle's high school reunion defense where she wants us to suddenly believe
00:28:31
that she was sort of like you know this sort of ingenue who didn't know anything and um you know but she might
00:28:38
get off because she kind of looks like lisa kudrow you know um she's gonna go up there and pretend to
00:28:56
be lisa kudrow or something you know like somebody says it's super offensive that she wants to
00:29:01
get up there and say that she was this abused woman i mean for women who actually are abused for her to get up
00:29:07
there and say she's an abused woman and she perpetrated 20 years we don't know whether she was abused or
00:29:14
not and if she was it may or may not have implicated in what she did which we don't know whether she did because again
00:29:22
thank god for the laws in america she is presumed innocent so let's let's all just like i think i think what david
00:29:28
where i agree with you is the following which is we do need to know that uh you know investors we all sign up for
00:29:37
expressing the fiduciary responsibilities on behalf of our lps or on behalf of our stakeholders okay
00:29:43
there needs to be some equivalent standard that founders are held to and there needs to be consequences for
00:29:50
lying particularly about the past because in the future you say i'm just projecting but in the past you're right
00:29:57
you have to be able to realize on what's given to you like look when we do diligence in a company we are given
00:30:03
everything that they have right we talk to their lawyers we talk to their lawyers lawyers in some cases
00:30:08
in the public markets all of this has to be transparently published so that we can come to our own conclusion sometimes
00:30:14
those conclusions are right sometimes they're wrong but we can at least know that they're not lying to us the minute
00:30:19
that it turns out that they were fudging the numbers that they gave us you're making you know the best
00:30:24
decisions you can you're assuming that it's great data but if the data is fudged you're [ __ ]
00:30:30
and so to the extent that she did that then she should be punished because we needs that standard she this is
00:30:37
this goes beyond money she was switching people's results she was saying that she
00:30:41
was giving them a blood result on her incredible varanos machine and she was running it to the back and and running
00:30:47
it on an average machine yes and she so she was taking investors putting their blood into her machine the theranose
00:30:56
machine then taking them for coffee running it to an abbott machine and giving their results i mean this was
00:31:01
the definition of a premeditated deliberate and multi-year fraud i put her at eighty percent likelihood of
00:31:09
guilty and i put the over under at 32.5 months served i don't know what the take down 32.5
00:31:21
well i i hope you're right because uh yeah i mean i'm a little worried that uh she's gonna figure out a way to pull the
00:31:27
rug over people what what are our kids gonna get in jail if we were chinese right now and they
00:31:31
played video games basically i think you would you would do harder time uh so moving on
00:31:40
the consequences is to the chinese internet companies no what's the consequence to the kids if
00:31:45
they're caught on video games no you're not you're oh companies have to turn it off right right right all right here we
00:31:50
go china bans young people from playing video games this is for kids who are under the age of 18 they are now
00:31:55
restricted from playing games on weekdays can only play for three hours most weekends
00:32:01
and these were set as a response to china's physical and mental health being affected by gaming according to reuters
00:32:08
uh it limits um i think they're doing what all american parents would want our government to do for our kids
00:32:16
i i don't disagree with that uh gamers are now penalized if they don't obey and the gaming companies will be as well
00:32:23
gaming companies will have to prove they have an identification system in place like requiring
00:32:32
age range i am sweating who they're texting who they're talking to what game they're
00:32:38
playing the new game they want to download [ __ ] that this is the only thing i've ever said that would make me
00:32:43
want to move to china this is one rule this is the most incredible thing i've ever
00:32:49
heard and i and and they're so smart by the way what's so beautiful is they they
00:32:53
send fentanyl and tick tock to us so that we get addicted to that [ __ ] totally i know what they're saying and
00:32:58
they're like no you guys are going to learn stem so that you can you know take over the world it's beautiful it's
00:33:03
brilliant yeah i would say like everything about china is is a measured decision right the the the politburo the
00:33:10
decision makers are not sitting there randomly shooting from the hip based on intuition and saying hey i think we
00:33:15
should stop video games they seem bad for kids there is clearly evidence and data and statistical models that are
00:33:22
driving this decision and their objective function is improve the health the longevity and the economic
00:33:28
prosperity of our society as a whole i'm sorry did you get this statement from china what are you doing
00:33:34
continue comrade you got i'm pointing out these guys are these guys generally don't make decisions
00:33:42
based on someone's kind of like flippant intuition they make decisions based on what they believe to be in the better
00:33:48
interest and i'm not saying it's right or wrong but in the better interests of economic prosperity
00:33:54
and i think we all know it intuitively we can certainly read reports but in the united states we value individual
00:33:59
liberties above all else and so we don't find ourselves in the circumstance it seems foreign and scary and crazy but
00:34:05
again it's another um in my opinion it's another tool we're going to get to something else
00:34:10
this century yes that's true but let's let's be clear we we don't we don't value
00:34:15
individual liberties that's not true that's just what we tell people but that's not totally true and you know
00:34:20
that's a i'm not gonna go there but yeah well i mean we are literally sitting here fighting there's a group of
00:34:26
individuals who are fighting to wear masks uh or not have to wear a mask rather not have to take the vaccine and
00:34:32
at the same time and i don't know if we want to go there uh we are denying a woman's um
00:34:42
david sacks are you in support of texas's abortion ban no we're let's no no i think it's a stupid law and i'll
00:34:49
explain why in a second but just on the the china thing for a second um this is i'll be a dissenting voice here
00:34:56
this is like if we had given tip or gore dictatorial powers i mean this is insane
00:35:00
they're gonna they're gonna determine how many hours a kid can play video games i mean look i i get
00:35:08
the the potential benefit but this is incredibly intrusive into the lives of citizens and
00:35:15
i'm not sure that video game playing is all together a negative thing you know i
00:35:20
think it's mostly our kids go through a phase where they play a lot of games and
00:35:23
they grow out of it and you know you talk to developers computer programmers they all went through some phase where
00:35:30
they were like hyper addicted to video games it you know builds hand-eye coordination it
00:35:35
builds um sort of uh you know computer uh literacy so i'm not sure it's like that look
00:35:42
obviously if someone does nothing but computer games their whole life that's a problem but as a phase that a kid goes
00:35:48
through i agree with you because i used to play three hours of [ __ ] zelda a day when
00:35:53
i came home because i was like no because i was a latchkey kid because i was a latchkey kid and i didn't have
00:35:58
anybody to take care of me uh i don't think david though that that's what kids are getting when
00:36:03
they're playing four hours of [ __ ] call of duty every night four hours these kids are playing ten hours
00:36:09
by the way i think there's i think china has another motivation for for this ban
00:36:14
which is they've got a lot of because of the one child policy right they've got a
00:36:19
radical uh misbalance of you know male to female ratio they've got a lot of young males
00:36:25
without romantic prospects in that country basically they have an insult problem
00:36:31
it's a giant insult problem i don't think we hear much about it um because they control the media but i
00:36:37
wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of just random violence out there and the last thing they want to do is have
00:36:43
these in-cells playing fortnite and call of duty shooting people five hours a night and then getting their brains
00:36:49
wired that way that might be playing into this decision i don't know well again you're just validating the mental
00:36:54
health aspect they've studied the mental health implications of these video games
00:36:57
and they said i'm not arguing for the ban i'm arguing for the fact that china has certainly
00:37:03
done something to indicate they have some data that indicates why they should make this decision it may be you're
00:37:08
right it may be about kind of you know growing getting people to be more romantic and get out of the house and go
00:37:12
get married and have kids and whatnot but there's certainly a and remember their objective function is always about
00:37:18
longevity and economic prosperity so you know there's something that's making them say that we can increase economic
00:37:23
prosperity increase longevity by doing this and that outweighs the whatever the detrimental social and other effects
00:37:30
might be um and you know i think there's something to read into it but no matter
00:37:33
what every big decision they make has some degree of competitive advantage for them and you know those
00:37:41
kids if they're not playing video games they're going to be do some doing something else like i don't know
00:37:44
programming computers doing biotechnology in a lab figuring stuff out on the internet writing the next
00:37:50
cryptocurrency i don't know but there's going to be some advantage that's going to arise out of the the time and the and
00:37:56
the productivity that's going to be generated by this and i think that's the calculus that they're undertaking here
00:38:01
i'm not saying no no we all agree they're thoughtful the question is what is this going to do
00:38:06
for this generation if they don't play video games are they going to be more productive are they going to be
00:38:11
you know they'll be they'll be good drones for the the collective you know you're right
00:38:19
exactly and that's that's the downside here is even if they get it right in this
00:38:25
particular case how much freedom do you have to give up how much state surveillance is there in the enforcement
00:38:30
and how many other insane policies will they forced on people with this mentality of you don't get to live your
00:38:36
life individually you got to stay this is actually i think your best point sex is that i think what could happen here
00:38:42
is you can overplay a hand and by squeezing people too tightly you can't play video games uh you can't run your
00:38:49
own companies you're gonna get replaced you can't practice your own religion you
00:38:53
you can't say what you want be a journalist these things could add up and and they
00:38:58
could you know piss off a young group of people who do what happened in tiananmen
00:39:03
square or in hong kong and they could be dealing with uh you know their own revolution and what if it's video games
00:39:10
revolutions have started over similarly seemingly actually i think you know maybe it's a
00:39:28
small chance five percent or ten percent you know creating a lot of social unrest
00:39:33
do you want to be all right should we go to texas you guys want to talk about that i mean i have
00:39:37
social unrest i'm going to lose my mind here all right here we go sb-8 creates a
00:39:42
private cause of action that enables texans to sue those who perform or aid and abet the
00:39:48
performance of abortions after a fetal heartbeat has been detected the ban comes two years after abortion
00:39:54
restrictions were proposed in georgia mississippi kentucky and louisiana the previous propositions were spoken out
00:40:01
publicly against by progressive tech companies companies with a female customer base and women led businesses
00:40:05
that proposed bill never became law uh sax you want to just uh frame for us the the legal sort of case here uh yeah
00:40:13
let's go to well do you want to do you want to go back and actually frame uh roe v wade and and planned parenthood
00:40:19
versus casey i think those are important to understand what the hell's going on here
00:40:23
sure okay well so you know row obviously gave women the the right to choose um you know
00:40:30
the reproductive freedom over you know invalidated abortion laws very very in a very very sweeping way
00:40:36
casey sort of modified roe it upheld it but modified it saying that the state could impose some
00:40:43
restrictions as long as it didn't place an undue burden that was a key term undue burden on a woman's right to to
00:40:50
choose and i think what was at issue in that case was um i think it was pennsylvania the state of
00:40:56
pennsylvania imposed a waiting period and some consultation with an advisor and so it delayed
00:41:02
the abortion but it didn't restrict or it otherwise eliminate it right yeah so so so casey casey
00:41:10
roe as modified by casey is really the under is really the law of the land right now which is the undue burden then
00:41:15
texas comes along and do you want to explain this law yeah so this law is regards to what you
00:41:22
think about abortion it's a really um bizarre law because what it does is it doesn't just
00:41:30
ban it it doesn't ban abortion outright what it does is create a private right of action basically a right to sue
00:41:40
uh in civil court anyone who aids and abets an abortion after about five or six weeks so
00:41:46
six weeks basically after a fetal heartbeat can be detected so which is about six weeks into the pregnancy and
00:41:52
the way the law works is that um okay so point one abortion providers are prohibited from performing abortion if
00:41:59
they can detect fetal heart tones um again that's six weeks there's no exception for rape and incest i think
00:42:04
that's really explosive politically um and horrible do you think it's horrible as a human yeah i'm curious your
00:42:12
personal position yeah we'll look let's get that let me just explain the law so the the law puts the onus of enforcement
00:42:19
on private citizens not government officials okay they do that to avoid to make it harder to legally challenge this
00:42:26
under roe and casey okay so what that what the government has done here what texas has done is it gives private
00:42:31
citizens the ability to sue abortion providers or anyone who aids in a bet someone to to get an abortion so it
00:42:37
could be an uber driver it could be a friend who simply drives someone to the abortion clinic it could be a person who
00:42:43
provides financial assistance it could be a secretary who works at the abortion clinic they can all be sued now
00:42:49
under aiding and abetting and here's here's really the the the person who had the abortion cannot be sued but but
00:42:55
anyone who ate it and about it can be that's how they're getting around the the right to choose and here's the
00:42:59
craziest part is the citizens who choose to sue don't need to show any connection to the
00:43:05
person they're suing and uh they don't even have to live in the state right so there's no connection
00:43:12
to them there's no personal injury to them but they're basically suing under a personal injury under a civil right of
00:43:19
action and if they succeed the law states that they're entitled to at least ten thousand dollars in damages in
00:43:25
addition to their legal costs so if they win their illegal guests got legal costs get
00:43:30
paid but if they lose they don't have to cover the defendant's legal fee so they
00:43:34
just get a free shot here which is also i've never seen a loser pay a rule like this i mean there are loser pay rules
00:43:40
but they're symmetric so we have an asymmetric loser pays rule but i don't think we've ever had a
00:43:47
civil law like this where um where somebody can sue where there's no injury to them there's no standing here
00:43:57
this is the thing that's fundamentally i think at odds with our entire legal tradition and i think regardless of what
00:44:02
you think about abortion this law will eventually be invalidated by the supreme court or a lower court on
00:44:08
that ground that they're allowing people to sue without standing um and and it's
00:44:13
a horrible precedent because can you imagine if with what the what texas is basically doing is deputizing private
00:44:19
citizens to enforce in civil courts a prohibition that they cannot or will not pass directly
00:44:27
is this the best they could come up in your hold on let's let's just state a couple
00:44:31
more uh facts like this was an extremely well thought out law um i think that they
00:44:39
the the pro-life faction in texas clearly had some very smart constitutional thinkers that were able
00:44:46
to navigate around roe v wade and planned parenthood versus casey to get something written that could be passed
00:44:52
in a way where you know samalito just basically punted and said we're not going to give a stay and so this is
00:44:57
going to have to meander through the course there is still a risk that it could just get kicked down to texas and
00:45:02
it could remain a state issue which there is a big risk and if that's true then you know other states could
00:45:07
basically take iran at copying this this law what i what i wanted to talk about was if you bring it
00:45:14
all together you know friedberg said something about like you know we really value personal freedom and this is where
00:45:18
i was like cynically like actually that's not true this is an example in my in my opinion
00:45:24
of where this is just like we are very hypocritical where you know if we talk about a
00:45:28
vaccine mandate you know there's just a an entire fiery you know up in arms of people usually typically in the same
00:45:36
states that are very anti-abortion that are like you know you know tread on me lightly you can't touch my body you know
00:45:42
i have the right to decide but when it comes to this topic they abandon all of that and they go to
00:45:48
the extreme opposite side which is the government mandates and to be able to say that to 50 of the population that
00:45:55
just because you were born with reproductive organs that you're treated different
00:46:00
specifically you know a uterus ovaries in a vagina you're treated differently than a man to me just seems absolutely
00:46:06
insane and just like fundamentally just erodes this idea of equality like at just a very principled level
00:46:12
and the even worse thing is that then you know the corporations that actually used to be on the front
00:46:19
lines of helping to drive social justice so far have been completely absent right
00:46:24
you have to remember in 2019 when we had these very repressive abortion laws i think he was in mississippi or alabama
00:46:30
you had all of these companies come out and say hey no not here not under our watch then when you had all these voter
00:46:37
suppression laws in georgia right you had all these companies come out and say hey absolutely not not on
00:46:43
our watch we will leave the state if you implement these things but so far what you've seen in this law
00:46:49
is complete radio silence in texas and this is you know you have to remember texas is the ninth largest economy in
00:46:55
the world right in the world so you have every single kind of company from technology to otherwise who have
00:47:03
chosen to either start or relocate their businesses in the state and i gotta think that you know these employees and
00:47:10
these leaders of these businesses should be saying something and they haven't said a damn thing
00:47:18
freeberg you have thoughts and then we'll go to esx um look i feel like um everyone has a limit to what they
00:47:27
believe um defines individual liberty um you know should everyone have complete freedom to the point that they
00:47:36
can take a gun and go shoot anyone that they want the answer is no i think even the most die-hard libertarians would
00:47:42
argue that there's some degree of what is it jon stewart mills sex um you know you should have the ability to
00:47:49
do whatever you want within your sphere of influence as long as it doesn't intersect with a sphere of influence of
00:47:53
others and so the philosophical argument that i believe the pro-life movement made
00:47:59
which is really a different point of view on values is that the sphere of influence of a
00:48:04
fetus exists at some point in time and therefore shouldn't be invaded by the by the by the mother now i'm not speaking
00:48:11
obviously my point of view my point of view is extremely pro-choice um just to be very clear
00:48:18
but the argument is um is i think one that we we all kind of blush over and assume that it's it's
00:48:25
about taking away a woman's right without recognizing the voice on the other side which says that there is a
00:48:30
a right to to life by a fetus at a certain point in time and so to me there's almost like this
00:48:36
principle debate that arises and it probably certainly falls more along religious lines than it does along on a
00:48:42
religious spectrum than it does on a um a kind of a libertarian spectrum or a spectrum of liberties um that that kind
00:48:49
of defines that crossover point for people but clearly texas is a really interestingly confused state right
00:48:55
there's this argument about individual freedom but now what comes across is a highly kind of conservative point of
00:49:01
view with respect to the freedom of a pregnant woman um and so you know i don't know if there
00:49:08
really is an easy answer it certainly seems to me nowadays that the pro-choice movement is the majority the the
00:49:14
pro-life movement is the minority and maybe i'm off on that side you probably know better
00:49:18
um but you know i'm not sure this truly does set a precedent that becomes kind of a widespread recognition of a new way
00:49:24
of addressing kind of the pro-life movement or giving the pro-life movement some additional movement i still think
00:49:28
that the pro-life movement remains a minority and um and over time that that will you know there'll be
00:49:36
perturbations but there'll certainly be some resolution over time in favor where are all the politically
00:49:41
correct people where are they where are they right now where are all the politically i mean like i guess they are
00:49:45
they were happy to get mike richards or whatever the guy's name was fired from jeopardy last week but where are they
00:49:50
now when we really need them but are you really saying there's not enough outrage about this i mean i'm seeing a
00:49:56
ton of outrage on social media yeah i see everything i see nothing i see i see a lot of useless virtue signaling i
00:50:02
don't see anything that's actually i think what we're talking about here is the leadership of companies and leaders
00:50:06
in my big companies there's gonna be a million person march within 45 days okay well let me
00:50:13
let me go back to chamas point about whether you know he called this this um this
00:50:17
bill smart in the sense that it was really thought through i agree that it's a deliberate attempt to circumvent
00:50:24
roe v wade and heart make it harder to sustain a legal challenge against it but i don't think this is
00:50:29
smart i think it's stupid philosophically politically and legally for the even for the pro-life movement so
00:50:37
philosophically i think the problem here is they're creating unlimited standing to sue across state boundaries by
00:50:45
somebody who hasn't even experienced harm i mean this is so far from what conservative
00:50:51
jurists and legal scholars have always professed to believe i mean i remember 20 years ago tort reform and ending
00:50:57
frivolous lawsuits was the absolute bedrock plank on the you know of the republican party so they're just
00:51:04
throwing that out the window here with unknown consequences for hold on a second for example
00:51:09
why wouldn't this be used to circumvent people's second amendment rights why wouldn't you just create a private right
00:51:14
of action to sue anyone who couldn't you know ate and abetted um a gun crime you know so i i i think
00:51:21
this is going to boomerang on conservatives second here's what i wait okay but let me get to the um political
00:51:27
stupidity of it and then henry belcaster wanted this as one piece so he didn't have to do so much editing no look
00:51:32
finish no luck the wall street journal has a great editorial today okay this is the wall
00:51:38
street journal editorial page is a great piece this is from uh and they basically say look they said
00:51:44
sometimes we wonder if texas is a journey attorney general kent accident is a progressive plant that's the guy
00:51:49
behind this his ill-conceived legal attack against obamacare backfired republicans in last year's election and
00:51:55
lost at the supreme court now he is leading with his chin on abortion how about thinking first so they're
00:52:01
pretty clear this is going to get overturned and frankly then politically this is just handed this is you know
00:52:08
democrats already having a field day with this so biden said this law is so extreme it doesn't even allow for
00:52:13
exceptions in the case of rape and incest i mean look he's right about that and gavin newsom the polling for him is
00:52:19
now going through the roof because all he has to do for the next uh 10 days is talk about right to choose in this texas
00:52:26
bill and he's going to cruise towards defeating the recall because it's basically
00:52:30
you're talking about something differently than i was what i what i'm saying is something very specific if you
00:52:34
go back to roe v wade it was written by a man first of all which you know we can debate whether
00:52:40
that makes any [ __ ] sense um but harry blackman went to the mayo clinic and lived there for like six or eight
00:52:46
weeks reading medical textbooks and came up with this trimester framework and again i'm just gonna go out on a
00:52:52
limb and say i don't have a [ __ ] clue what's going on in a woman's body and i don't think harry blackman did even
00:52:56
though he was much smarter than i and was on the supreme court okay and then casey tried to clean this up by
00:53:03
going to this fetal viability thing so we we have this law that was really kind of ill-conceived but was kind of going
00:53:09
in the right direction but it was really a very first form of judicial activism we tried to clean it up in the early 90s
00:53:16
but it's always been an issue where eventually what's really been happening is we've been pushing
00:53:20
this to the state's right issue and i think that the cleverness of this bill and it's dangerous but it was very
00:53:28
well thought out this was not a random thing where two haphazard [ __ ] got together and wrote this bill david i
00:53:34
think that this was methodically planned out for years and they are [ __ ] though it's
00:53:40
totally gonna backfire on them it's not going to it's going to let for example we now have an activist supreme court
00:53:48
who may actually not opine on this on the validity of the issue but say this is a states right issue if this stays in
00:53:54
texas and doesn't get outside of texas you will have this specific thing hold and stand and i think that that's a very
00:54:02
bad precedent to have set i think that these folks planned this out and i don't think they thought that it was an easy
00:54:08
way to overturn it and i think that's why when everybody was waiting with baited
00:54:13
breath for alito to basically stay this he didn't listen i think there there's a lot of
00:54:18
hysteria and hyperbole on social media right now saying that roe v wade's been overturned the supreme court is
00:54:23
overturned i'm not saying that yeah i i guess who don't know anything yeah i i i
00:54:28
i but but they're saying that because the supreme court ruled on very narrow procedural grounds that it wasn't ready
00:54:33
to hear about the texas law because a harm hasn't been committed yet but they haven't said they won't look at it in
00:54:40
the future i believe they will i believe that this law will be found unconstitutional
00:54:46
not necessarily do you think that companies not not necessarily because of abortion but just because no i don't
00:54:51
think they're changing the legal definition of standing in a way that flies against
00:54:57
everything we know about how the court system works i just i i think ultimately this is too clever
00:55:02
by half by the by the state attorney general i think it was i don't think i think he's a st he's a he's a tool all
00:55:10
right do we want to move on and talk about uh apple allowing people to uh link to
00:55:15
their own websites the the apple thing is really big news because it kind of goes to show you that
00:55:20
you had you had a pretty progressive legislative framework in south korea i don't think it's particularly a huge
00:55:26
market for apple because the most of the most of the um app activity i think is android more
00:55:33
than it is apple um but they basically just seeded the market and by deciding to basically conform to this law then
00:55:40
they started with these reader apps and allowing uh payments um it's the beginning of the beginning for
00:55:47
you know the app stores to be deconstructed and opened this uh just so people understand um apple said it would
00:55:53
uh allow media apps to create in-app links to sign up pages on those companies websites allowing the likes of
00:55:59
spotify netflix to bypass the iphone maker's cut of subscriptions now of course you can use spotify and netflix
00:56:05
on your phone but you may have probably people haven't experienced this because they've already become members of it and
00:56:10
did it on their site but you can't actually pay through your phone and you can't sign up through the app
00:56:17
they're not they were technically not allowed to link to it so this is a small small concession only to media folks so
00:56:24
what do you think saks um well i think trumath has kind of said this is the beginning of the end um i
00:56:30
think there's some truth to that um look i think the the the root of this is the
00:56:35
fact that apple has this 30 rake uh on any in-app purchases and like bill gurley said it's a rake
00:56:44
too far right just because you can charge 30 percent doesn't mean you should charge 30
00:56:49
ultimately this is why the whole ecosystem has been up in arms they formed an industry coalition
00:56:54
to challenge apple that resulted in a lot of legal challenges lawsuits and a lot of these companies like spotify
00:57:03
and tile they testified against apple uh in hearings um so i think this 30 rake has ultimately backfired on apple
00:57:11
it's created a huge backlash and now they're paying the price they've already had to roll it back for these so-called
00:57:16
reader apps so you know if what you're doing is buying a subscription to say netflix
00:57:22
netflix will now be able to redirect you to their website you can buy it there and then consume the content
00:57:28
you know on your ios app without uh apple getting a sp you know part of the split
00:57:34
but this now opens the door for uh this type of thing to apply to uh to games as well
00:57:41
where there's a lot more in-app purchases like like fortnight right so um i i just think this is a case
00:57:46
where you know what's the old line that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered uh
00:57:51
apple has been a hog and now it's getting slaughtered yeah by the way i want to point out like this
00:57:56
is a really interesting experience of the free market you know clearly consumers and the
00:58:04
developers on the apps in the app store ecosystem were vocal and angry enough that that um
00:58:10
that this behavioral change from apple the structural change kind of came to bear it didn't require regulatory
00:58:16
intervention i just want to point out how important and relevant that is that you're the market is functional the
00:58:23
market is functional and having the government and regulators come in and you know people complaining to the
00:58:28
senate about google and apple monopolizing them out of their businesses ultimately gets resolved when enough
00:58:35
there's enough kind of collective mass from the consumer slash partner that says to the
00:58:39
the the big incumbent player we're not going to play by these games anymore by these rules anymore i gotta think lena
00:58:45
khan being appointed did make apple think modest concession that yeah if you're a
00:58:58
spotify or a netflix or audible we're going to let you buy through the ass i mean do you want a
00:59:04
little regulation and police and anti-trust don't you think this is a nice win for
00:59:10
the free market yeah i do well look i i don't think monopolies are i i don't think letting
00:59:18
monopolies do whatever they want is free market okay i mean a monopolies end competition
00:59:24
they will squash innovation they will you know they will basically uh get in the way of permissionless
00:59:30
innovation so i you know i'm in favor of writing in these monopolies and the two big issues
00:59:36
i think with apple and google well apple especially is number one side loading of
00:59:41
apps so the idea that they have total control over what app what apps get loaded onto your ios device people want
00:59:47
the ability uh to create alternative app stores that already exists for android right so i
00:59:53
think that is coming for apple apple claims is a security issue but it is i mean what they should do is if
01:00:00
you click on lo side load apps it should just give you a warning you are no longer protected by us you know you're
01:00:06
you're subjecting yourself to phishing scams your information and buyer beware and then people can make their own
01:00:12
decision i've always thought that would be the best decision for what i like about this is i think this gives apple
01:00:17
the ability to now just compete against uh everybody in the app store uh without
01:00:23
having to have this um you know well we're partners with you they are not partners with people in the app store
01:00:29
they watch the app store and when something great comes and emerges they will copy it they just do it slower than
01:00:36
facebook so apple music studied spotify and they created their own apple product apple tv plus now with
01:00:43
ted lasso is competing against netflix they watch netflix and i signed up for apple arcade for my daughters because i
01:00:50
didn't want them to be paying for um like you know in-app purchases i'd rather just have the games
01:00:56
be stop upselling them and that's been wonderful for five or ten bucks a month to have that and i pay for the news
01:01:02
product so now they can just compete against everybody directly i think all of these media companies are going to be
01:01:07
video games podcasts tv shows and music so i don't know if you said netflix is going to be
01:01:13
doing podcasts about their shows and video games i think amazon will be video games
01:01:18
content it's all going to be one thing and disney plus will have games built into disney plus i bet in that
01:01:22
subscription price so the consumer's going to win ultimately you know i i think monopolies
01:01:29
are good because monopolies are just like lazy and it's easier to innovate and compete
01:01:34
against a monopoly to be honest than it is to compete against cronyism when there's kind of embedded kind of
01:01:40
government regulation that prevents emerging competitors from competing effectively
01:01:47
it's a lot harder to win than against some slow big uninnovative monopoly um and well
01:01:56
yeah go ahead well here's here's the the counter argument so i agree with you that big slow lumbering monopolies can
01:02:02
be great to compete against but here's the problem when they control access to an ecosystem when they're gatekeepers
01:02:08
that's the problem because now you have to go to them and they're going to be slow lumbering and stupid in terms of of
01:02:14
allowing you to innovate and when they see you becoming a threat they'll squat you that's the problem if these guys
01:02:19
didn't control platforms that would be one thing but they control the most important platform there is which is the
01:02:24
operating system so i i just think that you know this is microsoft and windows all over again except there's two of
01:02:31
them right there's ios and android and in microsoft's example you could load whatever software you wanted they were
01:02:36
just bundling they weren't saying you couldn't load net uh netscape they're just saying we're gonna give you
01:02:42
internet explorer with the operating system so this is even worse i mean right yeah microsoft was actually pretty open
01:02:50
by comparison but but there is like a version of bundling here what spotify said is look when we have to pay 30
01:02:57
and apple music doesn't have to pay anything we can't compete with that you know and they have a point there
01:03:04
yeah it's it's a completely valid point uh california's on fire this is what the
01:03:08
third or fourth year in a row uh this has gotten acute for the bay area people are now making plans as freiburg
01:03:15
mentioned on the last spot i think that there's or two pods ago there's like two
01:03:19
or three weeks of the year maybe even a month where you just can't really be outside and do stuff northern california
01:03:26
you can't you can't be outside have you ever this yeah three or three of our friends have
01:03:31
been evacuated because you know they moved up there in the middle of the pandemic they had to come down they said
01:03:36
it was raining ash you know one of our friends homes is is literally threatened um it's it's it's just like and then the
01:03:45
fire season is moving up earlier and earlier in the year you know my kids were in camp in tahoe
01:03:50
this this july and they had to be evacuated and fortunately for us you know we had a really good friend of ours
01:03:56
a neighbor here whose kids were also they can't be able to drive up in the um but my god like that was um
01:04:04
you know there's there's about what's going on there's about eight trillion dollars of real estate value
01:04:10
um in california and you know if you assume a tenth of that is exposed in the middle
01:04:16
of this kind of dense fire um uh these dense fire regions let's say it's let's say it's a trillion dollars there's a
01:04:22
trillion dollar the real estate value that you cannot insure anymore so i had an idea about this freeberg i i was
01:04:29
looking two or three years ago when these fires started maybe it was four or five years ago now for a blanket that
01:04:34
could go over a home could be installed or dropped over a home with helicopters i know this sounds crazy but is there a
01:04:41
material that's light enough that you could put it on a helicopter and drop it over one of these
01:04:47
yeah well why doesn't the startup exist i mean this would be amazing imagine if these homes had on the roof some sort of
01:04:52
a system that when fire or heat got there it just deployed the blanket and protected the home like i don't know if
01:04:58
you guys know this but right now in marin county in california it's nearly impossible to get fire insurance
01:05:03
and um this is becoming kind of a predominant factor in california particularly in all the areas with lots
01:05:08
of forest land there's 100 million acres of forest land in california so if a trillion dollars of real estate is
01:05:13
actually exposed to fires and you can't get fire insurance ask yourselves the question
01:05:20
what's going to happen when hundreds of billions of dollars of real estate literally goes up in smoke
01:05:25
or um or gets sold off who ultimately bears the cost where does that cost have its economic flow and
01:05:32
that's just the tip of the iceberg of the effect that may arise as these things start to take hold you know we
01:05:37
had this huge upswing in real estate in tahoe as everyone moved out of california and went to tahoe during the
01:05:41
pandemic now we're seeing tahoe real estate sell off like crazy this happened in wine country in sonoma and napa
01:05:47
county last year after the big fires they had there and so there are counties where you start to have these massive
01:05:52
fires causing this massive real estate sell-off and or the real estate burns and it's uninsured and guess what
01:05:58
happens fema steps in right the federal government steps in and ultimately the federal government's going to have these
01:06:02
like katrina events four or five times a year that we're going to be underwriting
01:06:05
losses for people's real estate that's valued in a way that doesn't account for the effects of climate change you know i
01:06:11
started a massive shift in economic value that we're gonna someone's gonna have to pay for
01:06:15
over the next decade and this is just the the beginning of it all of my is my strong belief i i tweeted this out about
01:06:22
maybe six or seven months ago but with uh another with this fabulous entrepreneur named david soloff i
01:06:27
co-founded an insurance company called ott risk and you know we've been trying to
01:06:33
build models and price um this kind of insurance climate insurance you know social media kinds of like
01:06:42
disruptions civil unrest insurance things that are very typical uh atypical sorry
01:06:49
and uh to your point freeburg it is really really hard to try to forecast what's going on in a way where
01:06:54
you can actually ensure these things with the margin of safety and so just as the as a person who would be the
01:07:00
provider of this kind of insurance what i'm telling you know what i'm learning is man these and we're negotiating
01:07:06
multi-hundred million dollar policies with these big corporates um and you know for example like you know
01:07:12
they want uh pandemic insurance if there's the next delta variant or whatever and i have to shut down my
01:07:17
facility and here's my economic loss i want to you know you to ensure that and okay uh it's impossible and so i can
01:07:24
only imagine what it's like then and the ground floor somebody to just buy some insurance that says if my house burns
01:07:29
down yeah it's uh it's very hard so this kind of parametric insurance doesn't exist which means that if you
01:07:36
live in any of these areas like i basically i think what it means is that climate change is going to ravage
01:07:42
um uh suburbs and it's going to ravage these sort of like far-flung communities because um nobody's going to want to
01:07:49
step in there and ensure the parametric risk that allows people to live their cities
01:07:54
my last company right climate corp we were what we started out in 2006 we offered parametric weather insurance
01:07:59
online and so it was all about our mission was to manage and adapt to climate change
01:08:04
and so you could buy weather insurance online and you underwrite the risk and the way you underwrite risk like this
01:08:08
and and auto insurance and any kind of insurance you look at past data you build a statistical model that's
01:08:13
represented by the past data and the frequency of certain things happening and that's how you price the insurance
01:08:17
the problem now is the past data has absolutely no bearing on what's going on and so you have to basically create more
01:08:24
fundamental deterministic models of fires which is something no one's really good at no one has any ability to do
01:08:31
because we've never seen this kind of environment before we've never seen hot year after hot year dry year after drier
01:08:37
and so there's no historical data to draw from to build the model so all the insurers throw their hands in the air
01:08:43
and they say we can't take on that risk we don't know how to price it and when they don't do that i'm telling you the
01:08:48
government's gonna end up having to step in and pay people money for the lost home or the government's gonna have to
01:08:52
say the reality here is that we can't afford to do this and you can't build homes
01:08:57
there and what's talk about functioning markets i think what we're realizing is the market now is so convinced that
01:09:05
global warming is real and you can't deny it that we just can't insure for it therefore
01:09:12
we're going to have to make serious societal changes and that's part of this process insurance being denied for
01:09:18
hurricane zones and insurance being denied for fire zones is part of the process of people accepting the reality
01:09:26
that we're not doing enough yeah jacob the problem is not that it's going to be denied it's that you're not going to be
01:09:31
able to get it and if you are you're not going to be able to afford it um and so
01:09:35
so it's not even that people are really open to writing the kind of cover that allows you to go and safely live in lake
01:09:40
tahoe 10 or 15 years from now and that that's the shame of it so we have these beautiful places that i think are just
01:09:46
going to be under duress and under pressure and it's going to force everybody to live more and more in the
01:09:51
major metropolitan areas which is you know i'm not sure that that's what everybody wants it's going to change
01:09:56
building i mean we saw now in florida and other places you know louisiana other places that are
01:10:01
flood zones nobody builds on the ground floor anymore everybody builds you know on stilts and they put a a car garage
01:10:08
underneath it because it's getting flooded i have friends in new york this week and i'm here and i had to change my
01:10:14
flight to come to new york for the wedding that i'm going to i had to change my flight because last night
01:10:19
we're going to be flying into this craziness here they got three inches of rain in one hour
01:10:24
uh 15 people my understanding has died in basement apartments because they couldn't or they didn't get out in time
01:10:29
it's kind of hard to understand but i guess people stayed in their apartments while they were filling up with water
01:10:34
and then did you see the did you see the video of like the the flood waters ripping into the new york subway yeah
01:10:40
it's crazy oh my god new york is not built for this so now new york's gonna just basically have to
01:10:45
say you know what all the basement apartments all the basements that exist they're not livable you can't live in a
01:10:50
basement anymore and when we build new structures the first floor is going to be built like they build them in miami
01:10:55
which is for water to flow straight through them and the garages underneath are designed to accept
01:11:00
massive flood waters i've been spending a lot of time on water recently and the the thing that i learned this week which
01:11:06
i not the thing that i learned but a great way to summarize this for folks listening if they don't understand
01:11:10
climate change changes the areas that are hotter get hotter the areas that are drier get drier and the
01:11:16
areas that get wetter get much more wet and so when you have a period of dryness or heat it's going to be extreme
01:11:24
and when it rains it's going to be so extreme and we're just going to get buffeted back and forth between these
01:11:29
two extremes and this is only going to escalate over the next 20 years or 30 years because we have so much embedded
01:11:35
pollution that we have to work our way through forget all the new stuff but all this embedded pollution has a cost and
01:11:40
we're just starting to begin processing that pollution well welcome to the all in depressed episode i mean
01:11:49
[ __ ] depressive wait this is my goddamn birthday guys what the [ __ ] happy birthday yeah really happy
01:11:55
birthday women's rights are being uh taken away the planet is on fire new york is
01:12:00
underwater uh covet is not ending nobody can sure insure anything and uh yeah i don't know man the market's ripping
01:12:08
there's lots of money coming into climate change investors and entrepreneurs are more optimistic than
01:12:13
they've ever been you know there's a backdrop of challenge but with challenges opportunity and i
01:12:18
think people are pursuing it like nuts right now and it's pretty exciting i like the way you say entrepreneurs
01:12:23
because i say it entrepreneurs but you say it entrepreneurs you've got an e and a you tomorrow i
01:12:28
mean entrepreneur yeah but very it's a very literal pronunciation of it yeah look i i think sharon you're a real
01:12:36
shren galley of the word uh gully are you gonna monetize something now sucks monetize your new app monetize colin
01:12:46
yeah leverage the uh yeah that's that's the good news here colin is doing really well
01:12:53
who's on fire the great the jewel of california i'm calling that ten thousand downloads
01:13:00
i um look i think i think that uh in terms of processing all the the bad news i i do think we have a tendency to
01:13:09
underestimate how much political partisans sort of whip things up in any event should we should we end with this rogan
01:13:16
thing i actually think it's a pretty good issue to talk about joe rogan got coveted um he was
01:13:22
i think they mis-framed what he said i actually saw the original quote where he said should a young person
01:13:27
uh take the vaccine this was in the very early days of the vaccine or should they
01:13:31
wait a little bit and see if it's safe i think was his position not one i agree with but i don't think what he said was
01:13:38
absolutely crazy his quote was if someone has an ideological physiological reason for not getting vaccinated i
01:13:43
don't want to force him to get vaccinated so and then he got it and he had to cancel some shows i think
01:13:50
there's something kind of funny here but also kind of serious here about the way
01:13:53
the media covers news like this first of all the media is positively gleeful whenever they can report that somebody
01:14:00
who expressed any vaccine has sincere skepticism gets covered right it's almost ghoulish i think um
01:14:07
look i i'm vaccinated i'm really happy i got the vaccine i think it gave me it helped me
01:14:12
have a much much milder case of cover than either was would have had so i'm pro-vaxxed or whatever but but here
01:14:18
here's what the media does and the craziest headline i saw about rogan was that rogan is taking a horse dewormer
01:14:27
referring to ivermectin right now look i i don't know whether ivormectin is a helpful treatment or not
01:14:33
i think you got to do a double-blind study to figure that out but i also think that it's very dishonest to be
01:14:39
describing ivormectin is a horsty worm i mean the the person who invented ivermectin
01:14:44
intended as a treatment for humans humans do take it as a treatment against certain parasites it also happens to
01:14:50
have a benefit in deworming horses but this is one of its applications so to describe this drug as a horse dewormer
01:14:58
as if it was the only thing it does the purpose of that is to make anyone who thinks that ivermectin is a possible
01:15:06
treatment to make them look ridiculous right and you know so why why is the press
01:15:10
doing that well the agenda is the press decided that vaccines are good okay i agree with them
01:15:16
about that but they but this is where it goes off the rails they decide that anybody
01:15:22
in in pursuing that agenda they have to make any alternative vaccine which would
01:15:27
be any therapeutic treatment and anyone who would take that therapeutic treatment look ridiculous and this is
01:15:32
where i think the media has crossed over into total dishonesty they're doing the
01:15:35
same thing with monoclonal antibodies which actually i think are treatment that works but anyone who is expressing
01:15:42
support for this all goes back to the polarization with trump right he what was the um drug that he was so was a big
01:15:48
proponent of that didn't actually work hydroxychloroquine so i think it's back to that uh what do you think friedberg
01:15:54
um are you have any opinion on joe rogan getting dunked on another anecdotal story
01:16:02
it's interesting to observe how much we've kind of as as with a lot of things when i say we i mean like
01:16:08
society each of us reading social media the internet media itself uh kind of orient things along a
01:16:16
spectrum right and wrong black and white left and right uh i feel like vaccination and vaccines have similarly
01:16:24
become you're either vaccinated and you're good or you're not vaccinated or you're bad or the opposite is true
01:16:31
and it's pretty clear there's tons of evidence that vaccination while it may reduce kind of the um the
01:16:39
severity of covid you know there seems to be a much less protective effect with respect to
01:16:48
transmission particularly with this delta variant now and that's just a fact you know you can say oh my gosh i'm
01:16:53
vaccinated therefore i'm safe it's like no you're also exposed to delta as someone who's unvaccinated in terms
01:17:00
of catching it and transmitting it to other people there may be less severity and there
01:17:04
will be less transmission one interesting fact by the way is that there's much much much less time when
01:17:08
you're vaccinated um you get affected with delta when you're actually infectious yeah incredibly
01:17:15
um incredibly reduced amount of time from like 10 days to like one to two days um but still that is a very
01:17:21
infectious kind of variant and so it's spreading but it's almost like we're blaming people that aren't vaccinated
01:17:26
for delta spreading delta's spreading because it's a really effective virus at spreading it's like a story
01:17:32
and uh this orientation around like you're you're the reason that delta is spreading is completely false and
01:17:38
everyone tries to then fit the story into that narrative you know the joke yeah right
01:17:42
don't you think there's like such a strong agenda the guy got infected it sucks like it has nothing to do with it
01:17:47
was he vaccinated or not he was vaccinated i don't know who cares like the point is it's not about i mean he
01:17:53
didn't do anything wrong in the sense and he's not to blame this delta variant is infecting people
01:17:58
saks got infected with delta he's he's back no i mean i i think you're i think the point people are trying to make here
01:18:03
friedberg is that he's been kind of people believe that with his platform he should be more pro-vax
01:18:10
because vaccines there's no downside but but j cal look don't you agree there's such a media agenda here like once they
01:18:17
decide what the agenda is going to be in this case it's provacs and i'm not saying that's wrong okay i'm just saying
01:18:24
that the way the media works is first they decide what the agenda is going to be then they distort everything to fit
01:18:29
what their agenda is so for example ivermectin's called a horse dewormer and and the logic here is completely
01:18:35
tortured they just don't want there to be any therapeutic alternative to vaccinations they don't want to give a
01:18:40
process they don't want to give credit to potentially and the same thing's true now look i'm not saying ivermectin is an
01:18:46
effective treatment i have no idea but there's no need to distort and demonize it before we even know what the truth is
01:18:51
by the way i wouldn't i wouldn't um use the term agenda i know that that's a commonly used term that the media has an
01:18:59
agenda i would argue that the media has a narrative and i would secondly argue that that narrative isn't necessarily
01:19:05
defined by the media or by some set of people in control but that that narrative is in effect defined by the
01:19:11
consumers that consume the media and then whatever they click on they vote with their views and so the
01:19:16
more views the more clicks the more dollars you spend on certain media outlets and certain writers the more
01:19:22
those writers get more stories to write and the more the consumption happens and
01:19:26
so my point of view is that the consumer ends up ultimately being the writer of the narrative and the definer of the
01:19:32
narrative and the storyline starts to fit that narrative versus feeling like we maybe felt years ago that oh my gosh
01:19:38
there's a few people this cabal that's in control of the media and they're running everything and they're telling
01:19:42
us what to believe and see i think we vote i think consumers vote with their dollars they vote with their views and
01:19:47
as a result that that is the narrative that gets written yeah they were not supposed to be tribal they were supposed
01:19:52
to be objective that was the concept of reporting is to just report the facts and let the not when it became a
01:19:58
consumer product well now it's well it's always been a consumer product but now it's just become so hard to run those
01:20:03
businesses right yeah the more you sell the more the more money you make and it's got you know what it was supposed
01:20:08
to be subscriptions were supposed to inoculate the reader the writers from this that oh we're getting paid for
01:20:14
subscribers therefore we don't have to worry about clicks anymore now because you will lose your paid
01:20:20
subscribers if you don't give them what they want yeah i'm going to predict right now our down votes on youtube are
01:20:25
going to be in the six to ten percent rate has happened so we've covered we have covered you're not paying coven
01:20:34
like this is going to be our worst rated evidence but it was a good discussion between the the four of us all right
01:20:40
everybody for the rain man david sacks please download the all in app uh just put a c in front of all in and you'll
01:20:46
find it in the app store congratulations to the uh folks who got into the syndicate and
01:20:52
thank you to saks for allowing uh thanks all in syndicate to uh participate and lead the series b
01:20:59
we're going to be leading the series b sachs gave us uh the ability to lead the series b 45
01:21:04
[ __ ] turned 45 45 never felt 45 you look good by the way we have a show called all in
01:21:12
after party on call-in where we you know we've done a couple episodes including we introduced our wack pack um you know
01:21:19
so sort of in between so like actually what we should do is all the fans of the show if you like all in and you want a
01:21:24
little more bestie go to the after show go to the go and sign up for all in after party we have
01:21:29
400 subscribers already after one day on the app that's pretty good yeah that's good i mean
01:21:34
be great for those especially if the wack pack gets in there i i talked to our guy who does the uh merch the bestie
01:21:40
merch guy he said he's made like five or six grand on merch in the last quarter he's paying his way through school on it
01:21:46
that's so great yeah i'm happy for him all right uh freeburg we'll see you at the uh
01:21:50
production board closed event nobody can get in sorry if you want a ticket it's not available chamoth happy birthday
01:21:58
happy birthday steve thanks guys all right we'll see you david wait saks this is where you say happy birthday you
01:22:03
[ __ ] yeah happy birthday i love you besties uh an emoji i don't think sax has ever
01:22:16
used an emoji i mean i i i have i have 10 years of text messages with this [ __ ]
01:22:20
he's never used a single emoji once no that's all right and congratulations to producer nick who is getting married
01:22:37
yeah a great [ __ ] decision see on the other side you [ __ ] dumb ass congratulations nick and rachel and
01:22:47
rachel congratulations guys rachel you're going to get half of the call in stock that nick has yeah congratulations
01:22:53
you got half of his advisor shares to to call in all right we'll see you all next time bye bye
01:23:01
we'll let your winners ride rain [Music] and they've just gone crazy [Music] we should all just get a room and just
01:23:33
have one big huge orgy because they're all just just like this like sexual tension but they just need to release
01:23:39
[Music] your feet [Music] waiting to get murky [Music]