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all right everybody welcome to episode 2 of the
all-in podcast with Jason and Chamath some basic
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ground rules here if you're not into speculation
you don't like to debate you know like to question
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authority and you don't like to get a [ __ ]
ton of inside information and I should turn the
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podcast off right now and go download the daily
from the New York Times or all things consider
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or some other bullshit's but we're here to do
speculating and talking about inside information
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and the real deal with me as always my co-host
Jamal poly Hypatia if you don't know how to
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pronounce it poly hapa Tia Jamaat how you doing
you holding up okay I am doing fabulously well
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we're in week four of our lockdown sheltering in
place here you're losing your mind I'm not because
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I'm fortunate to be in the suburbs I think if I
was cooped up in an apartment in the city I would
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feel a lot worse than I do right now but there's
a lot of fresh air the weather's fine I turned is
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not raining as much so we get to see the Sun a
little bit makes a big difference yeah can you
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imagine 15 20 years ago holed up in an apartment
with three kids who are home from school like
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these people who are in a city they must be going
insane I mean there's so much value to visiting
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New York but if you're stuck there in a quarantine
lockdown I've I don't know what I do all right
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well we got a great guest today why don't you
introduce our guest Gemma well we are really
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lucky here this is a person who I've known now for
I don't know maybe 15 20 years what I would call
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him is one of my best show ponies I have ridden
this [ __ ] up and down in everything he's done
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he has made me so much money it's like owning the
publishing rights to the YouTube back catalogue
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this is how prolific this guy is it's like
owning the Beatles back catalogue right you're
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like Michael Jackson is backwards he's bought
so David sacks though no all kidding aside David
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sacks is one of the most incredible people that
we know one of our closest friends big bit of a
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background on David he almost became a lawyer but
dropped out of law school after going to Stanford
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and worked with Peter teal at PayPal and was the
chief operating officer there left PayPal moved
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to Los Angeles unsuccessfully kept his virginity
found way to not get laid as a movie producer in
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Hollywood seems to be impossible David found a way
of doing it produced a movie one of the best known
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movies of that generation called thank you for
smoking then move back up here started Jeannie
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pivoted started Yammer sold that for more than
a billion dollars to Microsoft and became during
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that time frankly one of the most unsung heroes
of company founders and was a prolific investor
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in some of the most well-known iconic businesses
of this last generation Airbnb uber slack the list
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goes on and on and now is the co-founder of Kraft
ventures which is essentially David's early-stage
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venture business where he helps a lot of really
great companies get to the next level and frankly
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the level that he's been playing it for a while
despite all of that again I just see him as a
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show pony yeah some money printing machine if you
if he can get in on that fund if you can get in
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on those companies you're gonna do well Sachs is
an operating machine welcome to the program Sachs
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Davidson welcome to the pods thanks for having
me how are you holding up Sachs just personally
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family everything companies just generally
psychologically how is this impacting you you
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know I think we're all fortunate to be safe and
you know we we start paying attention to to the
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virus I guess on Infirmary because of Twitter tech
you know there are a bunch of people on the tech
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ecosystem who started tweeting very alarming
things and in February or even going this far
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back as like Jane xxx and I didn't know for sure
if they're arrived but some of them were friends
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of mine so I your to get seriously and we started
doing work from home I think I'm March first and
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we've all been kind of self isolated since then
and fortunately everyone that's been safe and
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you know holding it pretty well saxy boot tell
tell everybody on the pod power group chat and
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basically what it is what we do on that group chat
and now what you think about it yeah so I mean
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basically our poker group and sort of extended
poker group which is about I don't know it's
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probably about 20 players who rotated and out of
our poker game we have a chat group and we used to
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just talk about cards and stuff like that but they
very rapidly became a place to share information
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about the virus and responsible was going to
happen and the remarkable thing is that whatever
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we talk about ends up becoming like it's like
everyone else has figured it out about a week or
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two later and I think it has helped to stay about
a week or two ahead of the curve on this thing has
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it has it generally been mentally reassuring or
has it amplified your anxiety talking about it
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all the time in that chat well the usual thing
is that we have people in that chat who are very
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optimistic that people are very pessimistic we
have people in between and then we have people
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who swing around quite a bit and so I think you
get like all the perspectives and I think I guess
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my view of the future is that very hard to try
to figure out what's going to happen you have
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to think about it in terms of scenarios and so the
year the chat group helps you know understand like
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what those scenarios you know might look like so
where would you describe each of us then on the
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positive negative and then swingy you're you're
in which camp are you swingy so so I think three
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basic scenarios are vu and NL and Jason I would
describe you as as a V I think Jim auth is closer
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to the you which is the most pessimistic sorry
that the L is the most pessimistic and then the
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us sorts or in between and I sort of swing between
the U and the L but but I also understand the case
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for the V and and and and those initials really
refer to the shape of the recovery to common how
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quickly will come out of this so David before we
drill down into your beliefs on the future let's
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talk about the past what do you think this entire
episode has shown us whether it's from a public
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health perspective or an economic perspective
but how would you summarize your view of the
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world as it's been revealed to you in the past
two months yeah I mean I think that what would
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it really should you know we live most of our
lives during you know these relatively calm
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periods and then our lives get redefined by these
you know epochal events and and you know we're not
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really wired for this this rate of change I think
it was Lenin who said something like there there's
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some decades when nothing happens and there's
some weeks where decades happen and and I think
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that's that's basically what's happening here and
it feels like me a little bit the last thing that
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was like this was was was 9/11 where you know you
woke up that morning so all the the Twin Towers
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coming down on TV and you realized that we were
now in a different era and something like that's
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happening here as well just in slow motion what
do you think the government did right and what
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do you think that the government did wrong well I
mean you know limiting the flights in from through
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Wuhan or China was a good initial step but after
that it seemed like the response was very slow
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and and and sort of disbelieving and kind of
incredulous and and we've seen this basically
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everywhere the initial response of just about
every country with a few notable exceptions in
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in Asia that had previous experience with SARS but
but what we've seen in just about every country
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is that nobody believes it's going to happen to
them until it happens to them and then even in
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the United States you know it's it's it's it's
like no one believes it's gonna happen in their
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city until so in their social network gets gets
the virus and then all of a sudden they take it
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seriously and so there's almost been this like
it's like this slow-moving train wreck where
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you see it coming and people are just a little
bit too slow to react and you know the problem
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is it's all about the doubling time so if the
virus doubles you know every 2 or 3 days in the
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absence of any action at all maybe even doubles
every day and in a very dense city like New York
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City just waiting two or three weeks can make a
thousand ex difference in you know it's somewhere
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between I guess 10x of a thousand X difference
depending on the doubling time whether if you
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wait two weeks or three weeks I saw an article on
as much of articles now talking about well why has
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New York been hit so hard in California it has
been relatively mild and and the articles were
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saying you know California only declared shelter
in place one week ahead of in New York how can it
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be doing so much better and they're looking for
all these different causes and explanations and
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you know even one week makes a huge difference
if in New York New York's been hit about twelve
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times harder than California but if the doubling
time is just two days one week is a 12x difference
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that's how the extra now exponentially allottee
works and so like being a week button at you know
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or two weeks or three weeks behind the curve
is incredibly costly how do you break down
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local government versus federal government in the
action there and is America's architecture with
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states rights and powers a benefit in this case
or is it a negative because we did see the blue
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states take it very seriously the red states to
get less seriously the red states have a lot more
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distance between individuals the blue states tend
to be coastal cities they're more dense maybe you
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could handicap for us the the spread of the virus
with the layer on top of it of local governments
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and the political climate we're in yeah I think
you know the decentralized nature of the American
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system is both blessing and a curse in this in
this type of situation the the curse is that
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it's been very hard to create a unified national
strategy where we're doing lockdowns piecemeal
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and and so that the lockdowns get sorted as people
move around between areas that are not locked down
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and start new outbreaks very hard to control a
virus that way you know we're also you know we're
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also not able to act in the in the authoritarian
way that that we sought tryna act and move on to
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control the buyers for early on but the blessing
of decentralization is that it's allowed you know
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the governors of states to react and its allow
private companies to react and it's a lot of
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entrepreneurs to react and you see a lot of people
helping in different ways and and and and that can
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be that can make up for having kind of a more
ineffectual centralized response which isn't
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likely to work completely in a country the size
anyway do you think that the health apparatus of
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the united states did its job and where do you
think the areas of opportunity are to improve
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well the if you're talk about the health system
it seems like the the health system has done
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a great job in reacting to the virus in terms of
hospitalizations you know hospital adding hospital
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beds adding ICU capacity even in New York it looks
like I think Cuomo just said today that they've
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got you know ICU capacity they've got hospital
beds I think the hospital system has done a great
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job rapidly creating more capacity we haven't seen
the situation like in Italy or even the UK where
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they're literally rational rationing ventilators
and making horrible triage decisions about who's
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gonna get a better later and who's not you know we
haven't seen those types of Horrors and in the US
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but but if my health system we mean the FDA the
CDC the w-h-o which is part of the u.s. system
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but we do rely on them to some extent you've just
seen I think you know amazing really malpractice
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or negligence if there are a pharma company I
think that be sued you have to you know you have
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on the CDC website things that haven't checked
it today but as of a few days ago or display ly
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not true I mean saying that you only needed a mask
if you were actually taking care of a person with
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with with kovin 19 that that standing say a three
foot distance was sufficient that was sort of an
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acceptable amount of social distancing even if the
other person is coughing or sneezing and that's
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not true they're just saying things that weren't
true and then you know on the you know the the
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CDC and the Surgeon General until basically the
last few days we're telling us that mask didn't
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work were ineffective didn't and then now they
flipped to recommending them but they're still
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not required and I just wrote a blog today that
I published about half an hour ago I thought the
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best part of that blog post by the way it's up on
medium and saxes tweeted and I retweeted it David
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is what you said at the end which is we're taking
the most draconian measure quarantining people
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which we use this softer term shelter in place but
it's a quarantine call it what it is you're not
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allowed to leave your house except under rare
circumstances but we won't do the basic thing
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of wearing the mask it makes no sense in Jamaat I
think you had a really interesting question early
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on here which I think we should all sort go back
on one more time which is what what is this reveal
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right like in this kind of a crises and I love
the statement of sacks where you know did some
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decades nothing happens and then a week you have
a decade happen the thing that I am I think is the
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big takeaway for me is handicapping who you can
trust and what people's agendas are and how they
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behave in a crises because there are a group of
people building models and what is the motivation
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of somebody who builds a model we think about we
all get pitched as investors or when we worked
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inside a companies we build models and we know
the models mean nothing they're made by humans
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and what's the motivation of somebody building a
model in today's climate that then people adopt
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that model and there's life or death what would
you handicap which you go conservative would you
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go aggressive would you lean into people dying in
the case of supporting the economy and so the mud
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is the model makers there's the government local
and federal you have the media who are trying to
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get clicks in some cases you have a capitalists
who are trying to you know protect their book and
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their bets how do we all look at and think about
people's agendas and like the CDC having an agenda
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the local government and the model makers have
an agenda sure mom maybe you could take that one
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yeah I I think that the masks issue is actually
the most instructive thing in this whole debacle
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and the reason is that there was pretty obvious
data very early on that it was something that had
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unknown but pretty useful upside and absolutely
zero deleterious downside right so if you were
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thinking about risk management and I gave you
some options option one is do nothing option
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two is here's some drugs that you can take
prophylactically and I don't really know the
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either the efficacy or the long-term damage to a
broad-based population of people taking them an
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option 3 was a piece of cloth over your nose and
mouth yeah and for 10 cents and apparently at a
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minimum it prevents other people from smelling
your bad breath but at a maximum it prevents
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projectiles of disease gladen spit getting in
death earth-death vapor causing you to die yes
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and and we couldn't agree that that was a why he's
why you know why is this and with the agenda here
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because they didn't want people buying up the
masks and I'm not going to healthcare work no
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because I was never great at something this simple
because it was never about the n95 masks you could
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have worn a cloth mask in a tea cloth could have
covered it up and given you 70% efficacy this has
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everything to do with incentives and everything
to do with your other question as well which is
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like you know how why do modelers behave the way
that they do all of this is about being taken
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seriously and so to be taken seriously you have to
understand the incentives in the game that you're
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playing so for a modeler and a forecaster the
incentive is all around being conservative because
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that's how you're taken seriously there's nobody
that has any upside in showing a model that shows
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10,000 people dying all of the attention and the
the gravity with which are taken and the attention
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that you get is when you first put out a model
that shows that two million people could die which
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is what Imperial College did and that eventually
you walk it back and you walk it back and after
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the actuals exceed the forecasts then the data
converges on what actually happens and you see
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that these models were woefully inaccurate it's
the same with why the CDC or the whu-oh are just
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so completely incompetent because the incentives
in those organizations are essentially to play
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their game and that game is not one of public
health but it's one of politics right and so
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you have these people fighting each other over
political territory and the right to basically
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make decisions versus the actual substance and the
validity of the decision David did that does that
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correlate with your thinking and then superimpose
the media on top of that yeah I mean it's I think
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there's a couple of things going on one is that
there is a huge culture clash going on between
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the people who need conclusive scientific proof
before they're willing to recommend any course of
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action and then between other people who are
willing to take a more experimental approach
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to try things to iterate the way that we do in
start-up land when confronted with kind of an X
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you know company existential issues and and the
latter approach is smart when you know there's
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a lot of upside and trying something and not
much downside you know and the and the the the
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other approach of this sort of this scientific
the pseudo scientific sounding approach where
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you're constantly demanding conclusive evidence
it's actually people pretending to be smart you
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know as people who want to sound smart but it's
actually a pretty dumb approach and so we've seen
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this like culture clash playing out over and over
again you know and so experts should read it read
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it back to you David experts are afraid to do
something experimental with low downside because
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they have reputations and they want to sound
smart whereas entrepreneurs or maybe capitalists
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or other problem solvers or perhaps even gamblers
are gonna say there's no downside here what's the
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downside to putting a mask on nothing let's try
it the same thing with chloroquine and the z-pak
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very early on people were saying like Elon and
other folks in our circle why not just do hold
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on a second hold on a second chloroquine let's not
put that in the same category because it's a drug
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Jesus yes it's a drug for malaria okay but you
have an on Monsieur evidence some no no taking it
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if you were it's sick already no we still don't
know right let's be clear okay so masks is a
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wholly different thing this is why I said it that
way yeah usually if the minute you start to add
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drugs you come off as a armchair epidemiologist
and anybody a reasonably smart can poke holes
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in your theory and you sound like a [ __ ] [ __ ]
you cannot sound like a [ __ ] by telling people
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to wear cloth over their nose in their mouths okay
but the next step if you were in the hospital and
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you've been diagnosed and they said hey the doctor
says you might want to try this there were people
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who were saying don't even try it and there was a
direct correlation when Trump said he was behind
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it it seemed like the media and everybody were
like this is the worst idea ever no but but but
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this is your point which is that the incentives
of that game are to politicize things versus think
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about what's in the best interests in the public
health interests of either the United States or
00:22:10
the world but aren't we in agreement to try it if
you were if you were in the ICU and they said hey
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you want to try this you wouldn't try it no but
this is the problem is like the posture of the
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American in a political infrastructure is broken
and moments like this shine a light on how broken
00:22:26
it is because as David said all of the testing and
iteration all of those things are must-haves in
00:22:34
peacetime they are nice to haves in wartime right
you don't have a time to walk around and test-fire
00:22:42
a gun and make sure this works and that works the
enemy is in front of you you shoot and you fire
00:22:48
and you aim later yeah and in that posture we have
to have a set of rules that contemplate giving
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people at the ground floor on the border of you
know where their life is at risk the right to make
00:23:04
a decision as well-informed as it can be about
what they can try to do to save their life and
00:23:10
doctors need to be equally empowered and you know
we've effectively done that but we just did it in
00:23:16
fits and starts and in that there is all of this
noise that delays the right decision which is not
00:23:22
that hydro chloric wind is good or bad but it's
that here's all the published data into the hands
00:23:28
of the doctor who can act read and understand
it so that he or she and the patient can make a
00:23:32
decision together yeah agreed Sachs what are your
thoughts on chloroquine and the z-pak and and that
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whole sort of unraveling of this is the miracle
it's not the miracle it's worth looking at and
00:23:45
how that debate occurred let's say on the Twitter
and then also in our stream when we were talking
00:23:50
well Trump was not the first to embrace the
potential of hydroxychloroquine in fact we were
00:23:59
talking about in our chat group before you know
became national news of course once he did embrace
00:24:04
it it became a political football and a lot of
people want to prove him wrong and so now it's
00:24:09
hard to have a conversation about it without it
becoming political but the you know the argument
00:24:14
for hydroxychloroquine really started with some
research papers that showed that it worked in
00:24:19
vitro basically in test tubes against the virus
and it worked against Soares you know which is a
00:24:28
related sort of category virus I'm not I'm not an
expert or anything this is just sort of you know
00:24:34
me tell you what I what I know as a consumer of
information and so it was not crazy to think this
00:24:42
is something that should be tried in the context
of koban 19 now we don't know if it's going to
00:24:47
work or not I saw an interesting presentation by
UCSF and they're a working theory on it is that
00:24:54
is a hydroxychloroquine plus CPAC might have some
impact in the first week of the virus when before
00:25:03
peak viral replication takes place and this might
help interfere with the virus replicating once
00:25:10
you're in respiratory distress distress though
it's in your lungs you have to you're into a
00:25:14
different phase of this and they don't believe
that they think you need to look at other things
00:25:21
so so it sounded like this was a potentially valid
treatment we one less affecting week two and you
00:25:28
know by week three when you're at severe a RDS you
know it's and you got to find other things so you
00:25:35
know in terms of like what the right policy is you
know this you know I be in favor of the right to
00:25:42
I mean ultimately we should let patients and
doctors make this decision together and and
00:25:49
so you're not give the FDA did the right thing
giving emergency trial authorization to doctors
00:25:57
to be able to try this with their patients and and
what I think is happening is is that there's you
00:26:05
sort of rapid decentralized information sharing
happening among doctors and hospitals and you know
00:26:11
I think they're getting to the right answer here
okay do we do we feel comfortable moving on to
00:26:16
financial implications of this or are there things
about the modeling on upside downside I agree with
00:26:24
Jamaa that hydroxychloroquine is a little bit
more complicated masts are sort of the really
00:26:28
unambiguous 1peter laws it's just so easy there's
so cool down just cloth it's been cotton right you
00:26:37
literally could put a mat down our underwear
yeah could use your own underwear and just
00:26:41
put it across your face I mean this is what's so
insane that David's right I remember having this
00:26:47
argument with someone because on the CDC website
as David said he would only recommend it not as a
00:26:54
preventative measure for you but if you were old
you should use a mask only if you were treating
00:26:58
somebody with Kovac 90 then there's an element of
these authorities trying to manage us you know I
00:27:05
get you know I really hate that that I mean I do
think that they thought about will we create a run
00:27:13
on mass well you know that that that they don't
want to tell us the truth because they're afraid
00:27:17
of some of the consequences of telling us the
truth and you know I hate that feeling of being
00:27:22
lied to by public officials because they're trying
to manage I'm willing to be infantile by people
00:27:29
that are smarter than me yeah so can you give us a
list of the four people you think are smarter than
00:27:34
you go ahead mouth command I am NOT one of those
four people filed by nameless bureaucracies and I
00:27:41
think that Americans deserve to not be infantile
I mean for the amount of money that we pay and
00:27:46
the amount in taxes and the amount of power that
we give folks the one thing that I'm realizing
00:27:53
through this whole thing is like you know the it's
it is true in some respect that the countries that
00:27:59
had some level of authoritarian management did
well but it's also true that the countries that
00:28:05
had robust civil services filled with people
who are at the top of their class also did well
00:28:11
Singapore South Korea where it is a stature it's
a point of pride to work for the government where
00:28:17
it's some of the challenges Japan and so you know
one of the things that I realize is like career
00:28:24
bureaucrats really do infantile Americans in a
way that's really unproductive and unhealthy I
00:28:32
mean you know it doesn't surprise you and kind of
like perturb you that the ex-head of the FDA is
00:28:39
way more prominent and out front with his point of
view than the current head of the FDA I mean what
00:28:46
the hell is going on I think what we know is going
on is I mean Trump was elected and he dismantled
00:28:53
some of this and the system was Brian I heard it
I think no I think that that's unfair and you know
00:28:57
I'm I'm not I'm not a big Trump supporter but I
think it's unfair to pin it on him the reality
00:29:02
is maybe he defunded or under front of a bunch of
things but the hollowing out of our institutions
00:29:08
have been happening for 40 years and it's hot
started with Reagan to be clear because we
00:29:14
tilted the scales towards free market trickle-down
economics where government was viewed as a stop
00:29:21
for really smart people to inject themselves into
industry at higher levels or it was a place that's
00:29:28
you know capable people would never go because
capitalism the way that it was structured was
00:29:33
set up in such an aggressive tilted manner for
those that were capable and unfortunately it
00:29:41
hollowed out the government from people that were
really strong of character in a broadly speaking
00:29:48
kind of way and so what happens is that then
bureaucracies form the incentives change and you
00:29:54
get what you have gotten right now which is again
it is a it is a point of argument on something as
00:30:04
simple and frankly idiotic as a mask okay let's
move on to talking about the economy and David
00:30:14
you've been quite a heretic on Twitter because
you decided to engage in the one conversation
00:30:22
you're not allowed to have which is talking about
people's livelihoods as opposed to their lives
00:30:29
you can only keep one thought in your mind as far
as the kind of woke far-left is concerned and the
00:30:36
Twitter mobs you could only talk about people
in life and death you can't talk about their
00:30:40
livelihoods but you've been talking and starting
a dialogue on how you would structure teams in a
00:30:47
startup for how do we deal with the crisis versus
how do we go back to work so explain how you would
00:30:53
do this if this was a startup company if you were
doing it on an entrepreneurial level and what you
00:30:59
think the road looks like let's start with San
Francisco Bay Area and then we'll extrapolate
00:31:04
to the most acute area in America New York yeah
well the big question that everyone's gonna be
00:31:12
asking by the end of April is what now because
I do think you're already seeing this in the New
00:31:18
York data that quarantines work but that shouldn't
be a total surprise to us historically quarantines
00:31:25
have always worked to be quarantines were the way
that people dealt with plagues when they didn't
00:31:29
have any technology it's the problem is just there
are credibly costly and if the quarantine goes on
00:31:36
for months is their only way of dealing with
the virus then you know we could be looking at
00:31:40
the depression so that so the question really is
you know once we've arrested the exponentially in
00:31:47
the virus tonight I you know I think we have to do
that first but once we've arrested the exponential
00:31:54
'ti the big questions going well now how do we get
out of this and what I worry about is that the the
00:32:00
daily update mentality you know I think it's great
that our leaders are giving us these daily updates
00:32:06
it's showing that they yes they're showing a bias
for action which i think is good but I worry that
00:32:12
we're not going to be ready it that this precious
time that we're buying with quarantine is not
00:32:18
going to lead to a better plan in May because
no one's really were on that plan they're just
00:32:23
working on sort of the triage the the the media
response the making sure that that you know
00:32:30
hospitals around the country have the ventilators
if that's they need and we put in the order why is
00:32:35
it David that people can't keep these two parallel
processes in their mind at once you've been
00:32:41
attacked viciously on Twitter the media attacks
anybody who brings us up as like only caring about
00:32:46
capitalism when in fact you need to do both plans
you need to figure out how people get back to
00:32:52
their livelihoods and we avoid a depression which
would kill more people ultimately right I mean
00:32:57
I think this consensus about that whether it's
depression or suicide etc or people not be able to
00:33:02
feed themselves or you know have nutritious food
and healthcare so why can't people put these two
00:33:09
things in their mind at once and then let's talk
about the actual plan if you were planning and
00:33:15
you were the mayor of San Francisco or you were in
Trump's cabinet they said okay David you make the
00:33:19
plan for the Bay Area to go back to work take us
three or one two three and then we'll throw it to
00:33:23
Jamal what what I would do is like I would do what
I would do in a company for our product releases
00:33:29
that have you know in a company I'd have a product
manager for the 1.0 release and I have a different
00:33:34
product manager for the $2 police because it's
very hard for you know somebody to be all in on
00:33:40
two different leases which have two different
schedules so you know I think the team that we
00:33:45
have right now that's basically concerned with
the immediate response the the triage that you
00:33:50
keep doing what they're doing make sure that you
know the country's reacting the right way that has
00:33:55
all the supplies they need that you know they're
berating 3m into giving us more PPE or whatever it
00:34:00
is but I think that there should be a separate
team kind of a a you know as our for the 2.0
00:34:09
response which should be focused on how we create
a new system that gets us out of lockdown but
00:34:15
doesn't reach rigor the extranet reality of the
virus and I think that look that person that team
00:34:22
should be ready to slide the new system into place
in May I don't know if it's beginning in May end
00:34:28
of May or whatever but sometime in May they should
be ready to slide that new system into place so
00:34:32
that this precious I'm relying isn't wasted give
us your one two three one is masks obviously I
00:34:39
would think masses will no brain so that's number
one give us your two three four if you if you're
00:34:44
one of riff here a little bit yeah I mean the
other elements the plan that people keep talking
00:34:49
about it's it's you know rapid ubiquitous testing
I mean you have and you have to have same-day
00:34:55
results okay this this business of it taking
two three four days in the lab the problem is if
00:35:01
someone is infected they be passing it on during
that time you don't you don't you don't isolate
00:35:06
them in time so we have to have massive ubiquitous
same-day testing along with contact tracing so
00:35:13
that when you do find out that somebody's got it
you can not isolate not just them but all their
00:35:17
contacts that's the system that seems to have
worked in South Korea and I mean that those seems
00:35:25
to be the the pillars and and it's quarantining
the high-risk during this first phase of the
00:35:33
rollout with testing social distancing and masks
that's that seems to be the no-brainer I would
00:35:41
add fourth bullet point which is if you're obese
diabetic asthma or some combination of those and
00:35:47
over sixty and or over sixty you got to stay home
now and you cannot be in touch with anybody who's
00:35:52
out and about and part of that first wave to
go back to society right we know that certain
00:35:58
segments of the population are a much higher
risk than others and so part of having a more
00:36:04
fine-tuned response to the virus other than just
shutting everything down would say we'll let the
00:36:08
people who are at very very low risk go back out
still wearing mass and having the right protocols
00:36:14
and hygiene all that all that stuff but but but
you keep the high-risk population isolated rather
00:36:21
than shutting down the entire economy alright
shabbath if you're on the board of directors
00:36:24
and David was the star of the may plan to go
back how would you what questions would you have
00:36:31
for him and how critical can you be of his plan
let's make this as if we were actually in charge
00:36:36
to Moth Savage David plan well I I probably would
push David to consider a more aggressive approach
00:36:47
here and this is something that I've talked about
before Jason you and I have talked about this on
00:36:53
the podcast before but we need a biological
patriot act I know that it's unpalatable for
00:37:01
people on the left for certain reasons and people
on the right for other reasons but it just doesn't
00:37:06
matter what they think it was reported today
by the way that the CDC and the task force at
00:37:13
the White House is considering immunity cards
but a much more beefed-up version of them these
00:37:19
need to be cards that have you know some kind
of chip inside them that are non hackable and
00:37:27
issued by the government but you know my what
I would push David to think about if he was the
00:37:34
Czar of getting back to work is the following
which is I agree with the broad-based testing I
00:37:41
think that you need to have some kind of you know
wristband that allows you to be inside of certain
00:37:49
green zones inside in every single city or town
in the country that allow you to you know someway
00:37:56
be back to normal but there also needs to be red
zones where you cannot we need to have a very very
00:38:04
quick way of restarting a quarantine if there are
hotspots that develop but all of it needs to be
00:38:11
supported by broad-based testing and a biological
Patriot Act we do need to have immunity cards and
00:38:17
the simple basic reason is that it is the only way
that one can prioritize the economic salvation of
00:38:24
the US economy because I think once we have paid
the cost from a public health perspective which
00:38:31
we are doing at the end of this quarantine in
flattening the curve or crushing the curve our
00:38:38
immediate focus has to be in resuscitating the
GDP of this country because otherwise the number
00:38:44
of deaths and the number and the amount of pain
that it that is caused by economic destruction
00:38:51
will far outnumber the number of people that die
from this which is tragic already and the only
00:38:58
way that I can see for us to do that in a scalable
way is with an immunity card a biological Patriot
00:39:06
Act so I would be pushing David to think about
that and rip the band-aid off and get that done
00:39:09
and David I would also push you on thinking about
quarantining not just at home but maybe by region
00:39:18
and hot zone so if we know the New York corridor
or the Northeast Corridor is severely infected
00:39:24
nobody in or out of that corridor without a
visa without and I know this is a very touchy
00:39:30
issue well in terms of civil liberties but until
we're through this I don't see why people from New
00:39:34
York need to go to Florida without maybe a rare
exception or you know something to that effect
00:39:41
right so if we know we got California out of it
or if SoCal is still in the thick of it but NorCal
00:39:46
isn't maybe we have some level of testing required
to get on a flight to come to San Francisco or
00:39:53
to go to leave New York so those are two two
punch-ups how would you look at those David as
00:39:58
the new Tsar of getting back to work I think it's
all on the table I mean I like the green zone red
00:40:05
zone idea like I like using immunity information
we've been talking in our chat group for I think
00:40:11
a month about these blood serology tests I tweeted
I took one of those tests weeks ago I think like
00:40:18
three weeks ago before the FDA had even approved
it and I tweeted about it so yeah I think all that
00:40:24
I think the immunity cards I think we should use
all that information I mean it would all be on the
00:40:28
table for sure and I but but I think most of all
these ideas that you tied together into a coherent
00:40:34
system and I'm worried that our approach to date
has been so ad hoc that we're not going to have
00:40:42
a coherent system ready to go as a replacement
to shut downs in May when we need it it's part
00:40:48
of this you talked before about how you didn't
like to be managed I think we all agree we're
00:40:54
being managed and massaged because they really
do not want to even talk to us about going back
00:41:02
to work in May or what happens because they're
afraid that we're gonna jump the gun and we're
00:41:06
all going to just go to Crissy Field or you know
whatever Park or Central Park just throw a giant
00:41:12
party but people are not stupid there's a there
is a certain self-preservation here that should
00:41:17
be inherent in all these discussions which is you
know any reasonable person watching the death toll
00:41:23
in New York does not want to leave their house
and so why can't well how much of the lack of
00:41:31
discussion about this issue do you think David
is because people are afraid to treat people like
00:41:37
adults because they think they're gonna just go
out to Crissy Field or you know Dolores Park no
00:41:42
I think you're right that there was this long
period of time where the authorities were just
00:41:47
trying to get everyone to buy into the idea that
the virus was dangerous they needed to shelter in
00:41:51
place and and they didn't want to hear any views
that that that appeared to be contradicting they
00:42:00
were contradicting it you know I mean when the
Imperial College study came model came out and
00:42:06
they said that 2.2 million people would die in
the US and I tweeted that I thought that number
00:42:11
was insane was fear-mongering and I think you
know that's turn out to be the case but you know
00:42:18
people responded well well good I mean even if it
is fear mom we need to make people afraid because
00:42:23
otherwise they won't do the right things I guess
that's true in a situation in which we're relying
00:42:30
on everyone's voluntary compliance to engage in
a quarantine or to wear a mask and I guess part
00:42:37
of the response here is to figure out what what
what action items should not be voluntary that we
00:42:42
just need to do in order to get past this trip a
few of that I think that getting back to work is
00:42:50
going to be much much more difficult than people
think I think that in the absence of a vaccine
00:42:57
which looks like at best 18 to 24 months from
now we will never get to a hundred percent of
00:43:05
where we were before or at least the potential to
be at a hundred percent and so I just think that
00:43:11
over the next two years were in for a tremendous
amount of difficulty and this is sort of where you
00:43:18
know I'd like to shift the conversation I think
that you know we've now poured between the United
00:43:23
States government and the and almost ten trillion
dollars we smeared it into the economy and only
00:43:34
three cents of every dollar has gone into people's
pockets and I think we're hoping that the other 97
00:43:40
cents somehow trickles down into their pockets
in some way shape or form now when you look at
00:43:46
that 97 cents half of it was you know things
like propping up the commercial paper market
00:43:52
propping up the repo market but it's also been
things like propping up investment grade debt
00:43:58
propping up high-yield debt and I have a real
issue with this because I think that if we're
00:44:05
gonna take two years to get back to normal and I
really do think it's two years because Jason a lot
00:44:10
of the fears that you expressed people will have
as lingering doubts and will prevent them from
00:44:15
being at a hundred percent which means businesses
will not be at a hundred percent until you can
00:44:19
get an injection and know that you're protected
we're doing an enormous amount of damage because
00:44:26
we're taking trillions of dollars and flooding it
into the economy in a way that's just not going to
00:44:31
be effective and I don't think that we're taking
enough time to really think through these things
00:44:35
so you know on the one hand while I appreciate
the velocity or not the velocity the intention
00:44:43
you know like I think Jerome Powell's commentary
I applaud which is like you know he's saying all
00:44:49
the right things which is we will do everything
possible but the lending program to companies has
00:44:55
been haphazard and difficult but Adi gets started
in three weeks and some people have gotten money
00:45:00
in week four of this I mean it's pretty incredible
now you know the the numbers that I've read is
00:45:04
that you know on average the loans are turning
out to be sort of like you know in the tens of
00:45:09
thousands and on top of that you know David and I
talked about this in the group chat but the math
00:45:14
makes it so that you're better off furloughing or
letting people go then you are taking PPP which
00:45:20
means that a lot of this money may never get taken
and so you know but again all of that is still a
00:45:28
small rounding error we're talking about less than
ten cents on the dollar ninety cents of the dollar
00:45:34
have gone into areas that will not really touch an
average American citizen and I think that's just
00:45:42
fundamentally wrong because the trickle-down
theory of all of this you know was started 40
00:45:48
years ago and we can see now that it doesn't work
David any thoughts on the stimulus well I think I
00:45:54
think what's happened is that we have a 30% hole
in our economy right now you've got you know like
00:46:00
a 15 percent unemployment rate going to going to
25 or 30 maybe as high as that we don't know yet
00:46:07
you've got a you know we think that GDP is gonna
contract in the next quarter by a quarter to a
00:46:14
third and so you've got this giant hole in the
economy and what the Fed and Treasury are trying
00:46:21
to do is plug that hole for a period of time until
they we can get through this this health crisis
00:46:28
and and if the crisis only lasts a few months
maybe they can hold it all together but I do worry
00:46:35
that if it lasts longer if the it's gonna slip
out of their hands and and the result is going
00:46:41
to be a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies and
and effectively a great unraveling of our economy
00:46:49
yeah I think that I think that though in fairness
it's like this is where I think bankruptcy it's
00:46:55
almost viewed as a four-letter word but it's not
and in many ways the bankruptcy process could
00:47:02
actually be the saving grace of American business
in this moment and the reason I say that is that
00:47:08
it allows in a bankruptcy these companies to
discharge a lot of the debt and we could set
00:47:14
up a mechanism where these bankruptcies could be
done in a way where again similar to taking PPP
00:47:19
you don't let people go you know a percentage
of the of the cap table must go to the pensions
00:47:25
if they have them a certain percentage of the cap
table must go to employees and then the remaining
00:47:31
percentage goes to the secured bondholders and so
the existing equity holders and the unsecured bond
00:47:38
holders would effectively you know not be made
whole but in that all the employees would be and
00:47:44
if you combine that with a ubi program where you
put look they're in in the United States economy
00:47:50
only eight trillion dollars is wages so you know
we could do so much if we had given every United
00:48:00
States citizen their absolute salary of 2019 right
now we'd still have two trillion left to bail out
00:48:08
companies and everybody could take a year and get
paid like literally have a year sabbatical and be
00:48:13
poor I think what it really does is it guarantees
the chances or it maximizes sorry the chances of
00:48:19
a consumer-led recovery like the United States
has never been an economic system that's been
00:48:25
vibrant because of government spending or other
things we've always been vibrant because we've
00:48:30
been consumer led its consumer consumption and
its customers of companies buying products that
00:48:36
they need or want that drive the economy forward
and if you think about our largest customer base
00:48:42
they are the US population and by guaranteeing
their revenue so to speak you actually allow them
00:48:50
to then spend once they get out of quarantine and
you'll see them spend even in fits and starts in
00:48:56
this way you know you could spend five hundred
billion dollars buying a bunch of junk debt I
00:49:01
really don't see as a reasonably you know said
IV participant in the markets how it actually
00:49:07
helps anything um I think all it does is it
saddles you and me and all of our listeners
00:49:13
with a bunch of toxic junk debt that eventually
has to get sold by the Fed as David said in the
00:49:19
grand unraveling and it would be my housing
market what wouldn't it be more healthy David
00:49:24
to allow a certain percentage of these companies
the weaker ones to fail so that the stronger ones
00:49:30
could then pick up those employees and there be
some stability and I'm curious if you'd think
00:49:34
that we're gonna be living in a world where when
people have speculated about this maybe some the
00:49:42
individual consumer changes their perspective
and maybe people come out of this crises
00:49:46
with a different worldview I don't necessarily
subscribe to this but schmatta you do we've had
00:49:51
this conversation and so I'm curious David if you
think the American consumer will forever change
00:49:57
and maybe they upgrade their phone half as much
they you know spend less and and they basically
00:50:04
live a more modest rural style and people maybe
stay out in Tahoe or Colorado wherever they went
00:50:10
during this crises where you thought well you're
really talking about Depression era values and
00:50:15
the problem is if we acquire those values via
a depression that that would be a pretty bad
00:50:21
outcome here so but yes that could happen you
know I think we're I agree with Jim off is that
00:50:29
I think that even though the federal government
the Fed the Treasury have a tremendous amount
00:50:35
of firepower in a situation like this it may not
be inexhaustible and we have to kind of pick and
00:50:41
choose and prioritize who's gonna get aid and
and who's going to get bailouts and right now
00:50:49
it feels a little bit willy-nilly you know and
it feels like it under those circumstances the
00:50:56
bailouts default to the people who are politically
connected and powerful as opposed to the workers
00:51:05
the pension funds you know the Main Street small
business owner who's worked their whole life on a
00:51:10
business and all of a sudden is underwater and I
think you know it's it's it's gonna be very hard
00:51:18
to get the VA to the right people look in the last
four weeks in the last four weeks oh sorry in the
00:51:26
last week this is an incredible set I apologize
in the last week the amount of distressed debt in
00:51:33
the US has quadrupled in one week to a trillion
dollars right so as an example to David's point
00:51:40
that's much more visible to Jay Powell or to Steve
minuchin in the Fed and at the Treasury then than
00:51:51
it is that you know thousands and thousands of
nameless anonymous small business who owns this
00:51:56
is not can you give an example of what that debt
would be for the listeners we sure like I mean I
00:52:02
mean so you know I mean a fallen angel today is
Ford so we were not to pit we're not going to
00:52:08
pick on Ford but we're just gonna point to it as
a well-known company so this is a car manufacturer
00:52:12
they employ hundreds and hundreds of thousands of
people in very important political States you know
00:52:22
Michigan Ohio I think Tennessee probably but Ohio
and Michigan obviously critical states and they
00:52:33
you know issued debt into the market to fund you
know building factories or buying equipment who
00:52:40
buys that debt pension funds by the dead family
offices by the dead hedge funds by the dead now
00:52:50
those guys were giving out a coupon and they were
playing let's just say four or five or six percent
00:52:56
a year on this interest but now because of all
this economic uncertainty people think that their
00:53:02
ability to pay that back has gone way down and
so now they have to issue debt at much higher
00:53:08
interest rates and the existing debt has a much
lower credit quality it's effectively like you
00:53:14
having a credit card and you know American Express
calling you and saying Jason I think the odds of
00:53:20
you paying your credit card balances have gone
way down so I'm increasing your interest rate to
00:53:24
twenty four percent from seventeen percent yeah
and then I get another credit card to pay it off
00:53:28
and and so essentially what's happened is the
Federal Reserve has decided to become that next
00:53:35
credit card issuer well cuz they were wrong and
of doing it for you they're doing it for companies
00:53:41
but not for you and the question is is that okay
well at some level companies like Ford should be
00:53:47
saved because I think these are iconic businesses
that employ hundreds of thousands of people and
00:53:52
there are critical linchpins in the economy right
because they have a massive supply chain Network
00:53:57
and you know they're really important for many
other things beyond just the economics that they
00:54:03
themselves represent but there are better ways
to help Ford you could lend Ford as much money as
00:54:12
they needed to meet their short-term obligations
similarly to the way that the Federal Reserve
00:54:17
would allow a bank to borrow from the from their
window and I think that that's a very reasonable
00:54:23
approach the question is really when the Fed
then basically acts as a buyer of last resort
00:54:29
and obfuscates the price of these bonds and
essentially is saying the Amer can tax payer
00:54:34
will own these bonds for the foreseeable future if
you think that at some point those bonds that you
00:54:41
bought for you know ninety cents on the dollar are
worth ninety cents on the dollar then everything
00:54:47
is okay but if there's a chance that ninety cents
goes to 70 cents the people that really eat that
00:54:54
cost are us in the short term and our children
in the medium and I have a silly question it's
00:55:00
obviously not my wheelhouse corporate debt like
this why wouldn't there be a clause that if they
00:55:07
didn't pay back that 90 cents on the dollar that
the American government bought it for it converts
00:55:11
into equity in the company it's a great question
because the Federal Reserve has chosen to go and
00:55:19
essentially the equivalent of open and etrade
account and step into the markets by themselves
00:55:25
and just buy so they're buying bonds and they're
buying individual bonds and they're buying indices
00:55:31
that control or that have exposure to certain
bonds what they are not doing is going directly to
00:55:36
these companies and negotiating essentially saying
I will give you four or five billion dollars and
00:55:42
what I want you to do is retire that old debt and
replace it with this new instrument and here are
00:55:48
the terms of this new instrument the United States
taxpayer gets you know 3% or 4% warrant coverage
00:55:54
of the company yom-yom you know you must make
sure that the pension holders are Nightrain or
00:55:59
why wouldn't we have those clauses it's a basic
blocking and tackling that you know seed funds
00:56:04
have david sacks woody why is this not like a
no-brainer well I mean I think we've got to get
00:56:10
a good deal for taxpayers I mean Jim office said
I've heard Mark Cuban say it pretty eloquently
00:56:16
I heard Trump say that we have to get a good deal
for taxpayers I just think that they're in such an
00:56:22
emergency they're not really taking the time to do
that they're you know they're dirty they're trying
00:56:27
to do things they can do immediately yeah the the
forgivable 'no sub this money to me as the thing
00:56:33
i don't understand why is any of it forgivable
why isn't any all of it just you know a ten year
00:56:38
law or 20 year long loan that converts into equity
over some tranches but jason this is why if you're
00:56:44
if you're going to haphazardly fire trillions
dollars out of a bazooka why not give more than
00:56:51
three cents on the dollar to average Americans
why not put it into the pockets of every single
00:56:55
bank account you know you know who knows how much
everybody made the IRS does and you know the IRS
00:57:02
has a mailing address for everybody and the IRS
either gets a check or mails a check every single
00:57:06
taxpayer in the United States which I may also
have direct deposit for half of the people and so
00:57:12
you know there's nothing stopping us from saying
well you know what why don't we do 10 percent 10
00:57:18
cents of every dollar why don't we do 15 cents of
every dollar to Americans I really think this is
00:57:23
the way that you limit the amount of waste that's
going to happen so the the intention isn't wrong
00:57:31
and we shouldn't castigate people for wanting to
put money in the system as David said to plug the
00:57:36
hole but we can't be so haphazard as to not think
about the moral hazards were creating and try to
00:57:44
fix them in real time and so this 10 trillion has
already gone out the door but if the next trillion
00:57:50
or - don't touch Americans I think it's going to
create an enormous amount of damage we've only
00:57:57
given people a few weeks of a lifeline and they
need more and you you can't tell companies that
00:58:04
they can have effectively a limitless lifeline
but not the individuals because I do think at
00:58:12
some point companies will find a way to get out
of these loans and or break the covenants with
00:58:18
not much repercussion ok I want to wrap with to
sort of not doomsday scenarios but I want to touch
00:58:25
on politics and I also want to know in the chance
that this quarantine goes on for May and June in
00:58:31
other words San Francisco says you know what we're
gonna keep going and we're gonna get New York says
00:58:36
we're keeping going and we're talking about not
just April being in quarantine but May and/or June
00:58:43
and we're looking at June 1st of July 1st what are
the chances David that people say you know what
00:58:50
I am a free person I want to take my make take
my life into my own hands I want to make my own
00:58:54
decision I'm going out I'm gonna go surfing I'm
gonna do this and we have this social unrest and
00:59:00
how do politicians handicap that in this new world
I think that could happen I mean particularly
00:59:09
among young populations who are not at risk as
much you know for the relatively younger healthier
00:59:18
people who don't have comorbidity factors could
say look I've gotta one in a thousand chance or
00:59:24
you know or less of dying if even if I do get this
and I'm just gonna take that chance but it's all
00:59:31
the more reason why I think we need a strategy to
get out of lockdown that already includes the idea
00:59:38
of letting out these these people who are a much
lower risk and and isolates the people who are at
00:59:44
higher risk and against the you have anything to
add to that shimoff that kind of doomed a scenario
00:59:51
or that virtuality well I think that you're very
right Jason that I don't think we're going to get
00:59:57
out of lockdown until June 1st at the earliest
and I think that's in California I think nuisance
01:00:05
posture is basically that if April looks like the
curves are decaying it's gonna be mid May to late
01:00:10
May before he lifts this thing I don't know if I
see analyst and but but it's it's also important
01:00:17
that that we understand like you know we just
talked about companies the only entity that's
01:00:23
in even worse shape than companies and people are
states and cities and counties yeah they're dead
01:00:29
is incredible they have no revenue and metal/rock
massive costs and they're nonprofits and think of
01:00:36
the you know the garbage collector the fireman
the police officer the teacher these are like
01:00:43
these are the backbones and the pillars of our
community it's such a good thing that we were
01:00:47
so resilient and we thought ahead and built up
massive surpluses in our tax bases oh wait we
01:00:52
didn't do that well they're they're worse there
were some provisions to do that these rainy day
01:00:59
funds but those are going to get exhausted and you
know we're gonna have to bail those guys out as
01:01:03
well so this is what I'm saying which is that when
you're pumping in trillions of dollars haphazardly
01:01:09
into the capital markets before you think about
people or you think about the states and cities
01:01:14
and communities in America I just think it's a
recipe for disaster let me ask this even more
01:01:18
simply David under what circumstance would you be
willing to go back to our poker game on a Monday
01:01:25
night and have six seven of us around a table
sharing a meal and playing cards for six hours
01:01:33
well if there was if there was a treatment for for
the virus so that you knew that if you got it you
01:01:39
weren't gonna die that would be a big deal okay
that's actually there's a Russian roulette aspect
01:01:45
to the virus right now or even if your odds are
low you know you you still don't take the chance
01:01:52
I think the next thing that would probably help
would be that if we had this rapid ubiquitous
01:01:58
testing so I could know that the people who are in
the room with me are all tested we're all tested
01:02:06
and we're all negative and you know they could
repeat the tests on a frequent enough basis that
01:02:12
we can all trust the result that that would make
a big difference I think all right let's wrap with
01:02:18
politics all of this is occurring in an election
year bernie is out of the race Biden is doing a
01:02:26
daily webcast Trump's ratings are through the roof
as he is more than willing to let us all know in
01:02:34
his abhorrent narcissistic way that his ratings
are just tremendous right now in the middle of
01:02:41
thousands of Americans dying a day but we have to
touch on this because elections are how we govern
01:02:51
and make these decisions is by who we put into
these positions so what do we think and let's just
01:03:00
make odds here odds that Trump wins again it's
that Biden wins if you had to lay the odds if you
01:03:07
had to give it a percentage or you want to set a
line what what do you what are your thoughts David
01:03:14
I always think that these things are basically
a coin flip I mean this far out I mean right
01:03:20
now it seems like you know Trump's ratings have
never been higher he's polling relatively well
01:03:27
and Biden just seems completely irrelevant but if
we're still dealing with the virus by November if
01:03:34
we've cycled in and out of lockdown if we have
kind of an unresolved situation if the economy
01:03:39
is in a very very deep recession or depression
I think you know it's it's up for grabs shimoff
01:03:47
I think that if if there is a v-shaped recovery
of any kind Trump will win in a landslide right
01:03:55
now we are in a v-shape recovery the market has
come back o or not no we're not well if you use
01:04:01
the market as well right now the market is the
market is completely decoupled from Main Street
01:04:06
and so what Wall Street does is irrelevant right
now what I mean by recovery is what happens on
01:04:11
Main Street okay because if you have 16 17 20
22 percent unemployment I mean you could feel
01:04:20
the Prancing dog and he'll be Trump you know so I
think that the president needs massive victory or
01:04:32
so what does the game theory say the game theory
probably says that he'll try to force people to go
01:04:38
back to work as quickly as possible and if there
is even a modicum a shred of evidence on some kind
01:04:46
of you know therapeutic they'll you know drum it
up like it's like it's secure and try to confuse
01:04:53
people that there's a vaccine but I think he needs
that because in the absence of that again I just
01:04:59
go back to how difficult will it be to start
real life I think it's going to be difficult
01:05:03
and I think in that people won't have a lot of
patience for the fact that you know the debt
01:05:10
will have ballooned deficits will have ballooned
trillions of dollars will have gone out the door
01:05:16
and people will be meaningfully struggling going
into election day I don't think that that helps
01:05:21
Trump at all and you know by the way and we'll
talk about this in our next podcast because we
01:05:26
should probably we get an economist to talk about
it but you know what is putting ten trillion
01:05:31
dollars or whatever the final number is it'll
probably be 20 trillion you know 1 1 x US GDP
01:05:37
what does that do to the economy what does that
do to long-term inflation like if you seen what's
01:05:42
happened did not what Japan did and they went
through a lost decade or two no I think the best
01:05:47
better example is what happened in China which is
a combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus in
01:05:52
2009 and 10 and the results are basically a lot
of fake growth and massive inflation and so you
01:06:00
know it's probably useful to debate that in the
next in the next pod and what are the chances I
01:06:06
hate creates a lot of risk for Trump what are
the chances of a dark horse candidate you are
01:06:11
in on the 0 0 so it's Biden for sure yeah it's
my chance barring a Biden health emergency I
01:06:19
mean yeah he is yeah he's you know not a spring
chicken so so either person either person gets
01:06:28
the coronavirus it could be yeah well no I look
if anything happened to you yeah yeah we should
01:06:36
even talk about these possibilities I don't want
to sound like you know it's all IQ no one wants
01:06:40
this to happen but look I think Jim author's right
they're not gonna replace the head of the ticket
01:06:44
absent you know something health-wise happened
what is your game theory then on how Trump will
01:06:50
play this because in Jamaat's mind getting back
to work earlier makes it seem like we're getting
01:06:59
back to normal and he did that but a politician
might also say you know what I think there's a
01:07:05
chance of the second wave so I want to keep it
closed until June or July first and then time
01:07:09
it and I know this sounds incredibly cynical
that a elected official would make health and
01:07:15
economic policy decisions on their reelection but
that is the reality we live in is it not sure of
01:07:20
course I think the next big political debate is
is gonna be around this what now you know we yes
01:07:27
the quarantines of arrest is the extranet geology
the the virus but now how do we get out of them
01:07:32
and and you know Trump's gonna have to make it a
decision about what and how we get out and he's
01:07:41
gonna be eager to get out of lockdown - to restart
the economy but on the other hand if he miss times
01:07:47
it and we cycle you know the virus then takes off
again and we cycle back into the other lockdown
01:07:52
that's that's very dangerous for him politically -
so he's got a needle to thread there I agree with
01:08:01
Jim off that if if this ends up being v-shaped
Trump is a shoo-in but if it ends up being a
01:08:11
recession deep recession or depression if we end
up then I think the questions gonna be does he
01:08:16
appear to be more in the isaiah hoover or is he
more in boulder of an FDR you know and explained
01:08:25
how people have been able listening well I mean
so so Hoover took took the blame for the Great
01:08:30
Depression FDR gets elected in 1932 we're still
into the Great Depression in 1936 but he gets
01:08:36
reelected you know and because he's seen as as
a man of action he does these fireside chats and
01:08:45
he's he's doing things and and I do think that
you know Trump kind of pivoted from initially
01:08:52
being denied an iron a little bit flat-footed on
the virus and now doing these daily briefings and
01:08:58
I think the American public is giving him credit
for action right now and so they obviously if
01:09:04
those actions work I think he gets reelected and
if they don't work the question is you know does
01:09:10
he get blamed for that is it easy a Hoover or
is he an FDR all right on that note encourage
01:09:18
everybody to wear masks social distancing and for
those people in the audience who are startups and
01:09:25
investors keep keep the faith keep investing keep
starting companies never a bad time to start a
01:09:32
great company in my mind and Chim off any final
thoughts here we are it's what is today's date is
01:09:41
it I know it's April I think it's somewhere around
the 10th am I even close it's Friday right April
01:09:47
10th let's let's just make a decision to be all
in masks all in masks all in on masks and take it
01:09:58
into our own arms we don't need to be told that
these things make sense they make sense you're
01:10:02
an idiot if you think otherwise David closing
keep on track they ever thought totally agree
01:10:07
thought that was my blog today we shouldn't
have to make it the law but I mean I think
01:10:12
we should because there's still people who aren't
adopting it but it's the lowest-cost thing we can
01:10:17
do and if you look at the Asian countries have
controlled the virus every single person wears
01:10:23
a mask when they go out in public every single
person so simple no-brainer give people $4,000
01:10:29
fine if you're not wearing a mask give them a
warning first in hand of a mask like literally
01:10:33
the cops should have masks and they should hand
them to stay put this mask on and if I see you
01:10:37
again you get $1,000 fine the post office should
put one or a number of these everyone's mailbox
01:10:44
this is the first step to having a more fine-tuned
policy than just warranty and if we can't even get
01:10:50
this right then you know I I fear for for what's
coming next if you it's a great execution idea the
01:10:58
mail carriers every mail carrier leaves them and
then you could also get the private sector do you
01:11:03
tell every UPS FedEx driver the government gives
them those masks Amazon Amazon or they just all
01:11:10
have it hey if Jeff Bay somebody clipped this and
said it's Jeff Jeff if you want to do a mitzvah
01:11:13
give all these masks to the drivers and just leave
masks when everybody's doorstep and forget about
01:11:19
Trump and whatever government officials gonna
drag their heels on it go ahead you do it Jeff
01:11:23
Bezos and hey how great was Jack giving away a
billion dollars I mean we saw him get barbecue
01:11:28
straw social media but what a strong move huh and
he's gonna be strong he put it in a Google sheet
01:11:33
he's like here in the main dish you'd open I mean
it's the strongest move ever it's like you know
01:11:38
everybody you know I've always been very skeptical
of philanthropy because I feel like it's you know
01:11:44
a dalliance of the established rich in North
America because they like to have their names
01:11:50
on things and here's a guy who just basically
pwned all of that I don't need a hospital with
01:11:55
my name on it I don't need a building with my
name on it here's a billion dollars and here's
01:11:59
a Google spreadsheet to track it which means I'm
gonna have zero and you know overhead and running
01:12:04
it I mean it's it's so straw it's literally like
he the only thing that could be stronger as if
01:12:10
he connected it to a stripe account and like as
he just as he swiped his credit card it's just
01:12:14
it's just so strong it's what as zapier that
tweets it he has a Google Doc which is set so
01:12:20
that everybody could read it it off times I mean
for a billion dollars it's just amazing he should
01:12:25
start a slack instance with like each of those
nonprofits having a 30 completely by the way he
01:12:30
completely pwned The Giving Pledge in one fell
swoop yes The Giving Pledge which nobody has any
01:12:35
it's pretty opaque now it's like it's basically
pretend you're gonna give your money away we don't
01:12:40
need to know how much you don't really need to do
it there's no accountability but we have this fun
01:12:44
party once a year we can all hang out and you
know parties each other I haven't cited spots
01:12:51
like The Giving Pledge yeah so stupid it's like
the sign of insecurity saxy poo thanks for coming
01:12:58
on the pod Rain Man we appreciate it love you sexy
food we love you sexy poo lobby Jake L love you to
01:13:03
chew my bestie see we love you and everybody stays
safe seriously and now I just want to clothes wear
01:13:10
a mask wear a mask and to those people on the
front lines the janitors the Google the Amazon
01:13:16
drivers instacart people in the food bus you
are their best it's amazing that you're doing
01:13:21
what a sacrifice get the money to that yeah and I
seriously give the Amazon let us tip those drivers
01:13:28
in our get the money to them for sure double
the pay okay we'll see you all next time bye bye