00:00:00
I found out about a freeberg purchase that it's just you were there Jamal you heard what he bought what did I buy
00:00:07
pickles the quino what what was it no no sax you missed this because you're you are a Sunbird now and the rest of us are
00:00:14
snowbirds over the holidays but the three of us have been hanging out skiing having dinner for a couple of weeks and
00:00:21
we had a little wives dinner and one of the wives was complaining about oh the suits R suits oh my God so free
00:00:30
do you have pictures of the radiation suits I don't have pictures of the radiation Su I'm trying to find what
00:00:35
radiation suits I thought you were going to talk about like Bion suits or something radiation suits you know how
00:00:42
you went into full scale panic mode and you during Co and you had your whole outfit your your hazmat suit fredberg
00:00:50
just because he's panicked about nuclear proliferation has bought suits for his entire family
00:01:00
thousands of dollars of radiation suits and nuclear fallout and he bought one for his dog dogs dogs dogs dogs sorry
00:01:10
dogs from Monty and Daisy I should send you guys the photo of the dog a bunker I
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mean I've got it all taken care of you need a bunker first right I think that's underway as well how do you get to your
00:01:20
bunker freeberg with with the pilots that you'll be asking to leave their families or will you be protecting them
00:01:27
with the guns that were stolen from your house at least you'll have the thousands of
00:01:33
pickles you've made and the pounds of I didn't know freedberg was a prepper did you know
00:01:39
this sax saak has a little prepper saak freeberg was howling because he was so mad he made like thousands and thousands
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of pickles and nobody would eat them including himself they were so terrible you literally bought a radiation pod for
00:01:53
your dogs yeah so they that's their air filter on the right so that they don't breathe in the nuclear fallout collap
00:02:01
I kind of like the the prepping thank you sir yeah it's good you guys don't understand there's a reason Evolution
00:02:06
happens in moments of what we call punctuated equilibrium there's a massive event and certain you know things
00:02:13
survive and then that becomes the proliferant species going forward this is the moment be ready so you're saying
00:02:18
paranoid rich white guys are going to survive the nuclear Holocaust is what you're saying paranoid rich white Tech
00:02:25
guys are going to make it to the other side got it how exciting ex what a great future what a
00:02:32
future like we'd rather die that touches myogenous Jones just the idea of it when
00:02:38
saaks and freeberg are the only two reproducing males left delicious can you imagine the the Jean Pool it's like
00:02:45
literally this is like some dystopian science fiction this is like a Black Mirror episode you'll have the pastiest
00:02:50
Preppers in the world pasty Preppers to inherit the Earth let your winners ride Rainman
00:03:04
David and instead we open sources to the fans and they've just gone [Music] crazy welcome back to the program
00:03:14
everybody it is the new year but it's the same Squad your four besties are here chth poop Patia he is now not just
00:03:23
the dictator he is Chairman dictator calling in from the slopes with his beautiful Bert sweater that's a great
00:03:30
sweater that's a major turtleneck going on there and we have David Friedberg also uh looks like he's on the slopes
00:03:37
and he is wearing his ohal his ohal not Mahalo ohal hat he is branding here on the Allin podcast sneaking in a little
00:03:45
branding for his new startup that he is the CEO of David Sachs is with us of course and he cleaned up he cleaned up a
00:03:53
little bit here the hair was getting out of control we had a lot of commentary on
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the hair apparently you cleaned up shop I pivoted from the the Jefferson to the gecko all right so everybody loves when
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we do our predictions and so we're going to start off 2024 big year for us we got
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a lot going on here at Allin and we're going to just do some predictions here so let's get started we're going to kick
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it off with Sachs doing his prediction for the biggest political winner in 2024 saak who do you have what's your
00:04:21
prediction for who's going to be the biggest winner in 2024 we're bracing yeah well you're going to love this J
00:04:27
Cal but my my prediction for biggest political winner in 2024 is Vladimir Putin 2023 last year was the year that Putin
00:04:37
turned it all around he stabilized his economy after the West attempt to sanction him to his knees tried to
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collapse his economy we issued basically an arrest warrant from the international
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criminal court he has gained the upperhand militarily in Ukraine I think that 2024
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will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine potentially making new gains I
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think that the the stalemate narrative that our media has propagated about Ukraine will be exposed as a lie I think
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the Russians are in fact winning that War and what you're seeing is that his successful stance against the West in
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Ukraine has only made him more influential throughout the global South and in the brics
00:05:25
countries countries that oppose American dominance and dollar hemony see him as the man with a plan as as a bit of a
00:05:34
Conquering Hero and I think as project Ukraine falls apart in 2024 it's only going to reinforce that
00:05:43
sense that he's the big winner sex did you see that Argentina said they're not going to join bricks and that some have
00:05:50
said that was a bit of a blowback on the bricks effort to end dollar hegemony and
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do you think it's really impactful or is it just a one-off I think it's a one-off
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I mean melee won in a big surprise there because the country's economy has been such a basket case and he is very
00:06:09
pro-american pro-israel Pro West and so he has distance Argentina from from bricks but I think that's a little bit
00:06:17
of a oneof the larger issue is that the whole Global South Now is really resisting the collective West in
00:06:27
a number of different ways and so our influence and dominance is slowly declining across the world and there's
00:06:34
many examples of that so we can get into it throughout the show just to be clear
00:06:38
with the audience you're not rooting for Putin here you're just predicting he's the biggest winner I'm not rooting for
00:06:44
it to happen I I've got other answers here that I think are negatives as well I wish we had made a
00:06:52
peace deal and avoided this whole Ukraine war I think that was a gigantic Mistake by the West so yeah you've been
00:06:57
clear about that yeah we have put Putin in this position to be the Victor because we plunged into a war without
00:07:06
thinking it through and the truth is we can't give Ukraine enough Aid to have them actually win this war so we've
00:07:14
contributed massively to Putin being this Victor and you know it was Fiona Hill who is a Russia hawk in the foreign
00:07:22
policy establishment who pointed out in a speech I think over the past year that
00:07:28
the global South is is using this Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against the West so in the same way that we're
00:07:35
using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia she said the global South was using Russia as a proxy against the West as a
00:07:43
way to basically Dethrone American Hemy all over the world and that that's a very negative
00:07:48
Trend so if you had Ukraine and Putin in under seven minutes for this episode if
00:07:53
you bet the under you win freeberg who's your prediction for the biggest political winner in politics for 20 24
00:08:00
I'm going to go with independent third party in the US we saw the stats last week I think we reviewed them with a
00:08:05
poll that showed that 60 plus% of people are claiming interest in a third party or an independent effort outside of the
00:08:12
traditional Dam Republican split and if you look at in 1992 Ross perau got 18 to 19% of the general
00:08:23
election vote RFK Jr is obviously running on an independent ticket this year we'll see if he even get on the
00:08:30
ballot in a bunch of States but I think that whether it's him or the interest in
00:08:35
developing a third party uh in the US that there may be a big winner this year that challenges the the traditional
00:08:43
two-party split in this country all right and chamath who do you got for your biggest political winner in
00:08:50
independent centrists I think this election starts the breakdown of the two- party system same same look at that
00:08:56
RFK this week actually just got added to the Utah ballot I think that this could
00:09:00
be the most meaningful longlasting change that we see in American politics is this is from from the RFK candidacy I
00:09:07
mean how many people do you guys know that were Republicans that don't want to be Republicans anymore or were Democrats
00:09:12
and don't want to be Democrats anymore it's really like most so many people I know more of the latter I know more of
00:09:17
the latter actually than I do yeah that's true too yeah that's what I would say I think I think Republicans are
00:09:22
still firmly established I think people are embarrassed to be a Democrat right now interestingly I also picked the
00:09:28
Darkhorse president IAL candidate who will beat treasonous and corrupt AKA Trump and Biden I think we're going to
00:09:34
actually see some Darkhorse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody wanted wow that's crazy three of
00:09:41
the four of us picked the same thing no coordination beforehand yes and this is done blind folks and and Nick has my
00:09:48
notes here so he can he can uh vouch for me here and just to go back and look at
00:09:53
2023 what we predicted Sachs you said Asian-American College applicants were going to be your biggest winner in
00:09:59
politics that actually turned out to be pretty preent right yeah I mean I was betting on court cases overruling
00:10:06
affirmative action and that's exactly what happened is that Supreme Court ruled against affirmative action in
00:10:11
college admissions saying that it unlawfully discriminated against asian-americans so yeah that worked out
00:10:17
exactly right so that's a great prediction I think chamat you had perhaps the best prediction of even the
00:10:23
entire show last year your spread trade long Nikki and short Dan santis that paid off and Spades well done there
00:10:31
freeberg you had NBS and Saudi have the most important year in their modern era that actually pretty pressent as well
00:10:37
they seem to be yeah I mean if you look at let me just post this this was this journal article that came out in March
00:10:42
if you guys remember this when Saudi was considering accepting Yan instead of dollars for sales of oil to China and
00:10:49
then in August the us ramped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars not Yuan let me just pull this up for
00:10:56
you guys which was obviously follow on story where the US tried to counter the actions which is continuing obviously
00:11:04
today where there's a back and forth and Saudi as I mentioned last week I think is in this really interesting Central
00:11:10
pivot position between all of these competing major nuclear powers and fighting for influence and this is a big
00:11:19
story and it will continue to be this year and modernizing as society that photo of the fist bump I mean what a
00:11:25
mistake that was where Biden just gratuitously in insulted MBS compare that to the photo of Putin visiting the
00:11:33
Middle East and meeting shaking hands with MBS which happened just a few weeks ago and compare the welcome that Putin
00:11:41
got in Saudi Arabia and I think UAE to the welcome that Biden got it's just two completely different levels it was a
00:11:48
very warm embrace on both sides I think it was UAE they literally had a parade for him where they had uh the colors of
00:11:56
the Russian flag up everywhere so you know we've tried to portray Putin as this Global Pariah
00:12:04
we've tried to turn him into this Global Pariah but it's not working because of the way that he is defeating
00:12:12
the collective West in Ukraine I think that it's given him enormous cache and influence in the global South and much
00:12:21
of the developing World which would like to stand up to American dominance or or
00:12:26
at least is tired of American dominance and if double click on that article the second one I sent on
00:12:33
Washington trying to negotiate with the Saudis you know quote behind the scenes but obviously this all comes out they're
00:12:38
asking assurances that Riyad will use dollars not Yuan to price oil sales assurances that Saudi won't allow China
00:12:45
to build military bases in the kingdom and limitations on Saudi Arabia using technology developed by China and in
00:12:52
exchange the US will protect Saudi will provide military protection and will help them develop a nuclear program
00:13:00
which is an incredible demand so obviously this is an unresolved point but this becomes a pivot moment for
00:13:06
Saudi Arabia they may become a nuclear power use this as leverage as the US continues to try and keep dollar hemony
00:13:13
alive and my prediction last year was that Trump would get indicted win the nomination and then agree not to run in
00:13:20
order to get a pardon or something in that vein and looks like I'm going to get two of those three correct we'll see
00:13:25
on the pardon he has been indicted obviously and he is looks like a lock to win the nomination but we'll see I don't
00:13:34
it seems like Nikki hel's doing okay you'll see biggest political loser of 2024 is what we're going to do next
00:13:41
jamat last year you picked D santis I picked D santis that was a pretty easy one saaka picked California also a
00:13:47
pretty easy one we know that California's gotten demolished because specifically California went from having
00:13:52
a76 billion Surplus in 2022 to a $68 billion deficit now yeah Bonkers yeah I don't think any of those were as obvious
00:14:02
as they were in January of last year I think Dan santis was leading he was collecting a lot of big checks and
00:14:07
California hadn't imploded I and everybody knew that they were be under pressure but nobody expected to be I
00:14:12
think this Swift so all right I don't think those were obvious I think those were actually pretty decent picks okay
00:14:18
that's a good argument and then freberg you picked debt issues for emerging Nations debt markets start to unravel
00:14:23
IMF steps in I'm not sure I I have enough information to check in on that one yet any thoughts freeberg before we
00:14:30
go on to our predictions for biggest loser I think we had any big unwinding like I had expected but these problems
00:14:36
are bubbling and persist you know obviously Argentina took a big step with the election there that one was one of
00:14:42
the countries that was most at risk of having a big event last year but shth who's your prediction for biggest
00:14:49
political loser in 2024 the copes I think on a dollar basis they are the largest spender in Republican politics
00:14:58
they have been and they have been the most consistent negative indicator of value and so if you just want to fade a
00:15:05
trade I think you can pretty easily just find where the those old school Republicans are putting
00:15:13
their money and just kind of short it and right now as much as I was sort of long the Haley spread trade in 2023 I
00:15:21
would probably now short that trade in 24 H okay Switching it up mostly because of the cokes freeberg who do you got
00:15:28
well saxel like this one but I think Ukraine might be the Biggest Loser this year as
00:15:35
attention shifts to the Brewing conflict in the Middle East during an election year like the US
00:15:42
is facing continuing this funding of this Ukraine Russia conflict with US dollars is becoming a more
00:15:48
unpopular issue for people to support and so I think because of all these these competing interests and the
00:15:55
political pressure the US will probably not have the uh resources to commit to Ukraine I think Ukraine's shot at being
00:16:03
in NATO is going to fade away and unfortunately it seems like the country may be left behind by the end of this
00:16:09
year saxs what do you got well I totally agree with that and I would just add demographic decline even collapse uh
00:16:15
they've lost something like half a million soldiers in terms of casualties they also something like 10 million
00:16:23
people have have fled the country I read recently that there's only about 20 million people left in the country and
00:16:28
half of them are pensioners so it's not even clear that the working population of the country is going to be able to
00:16:33
support the pensioners and of course the war isn't close to being over yet so there's going to be even more
00:16:38
destruction that happens so I I agree with that that pick I up leveled my answer a little bit
00:16:45
here to have the collective West as the biggest political loser and Ukraine is a
00:16:52
big part of that obviously this huge bet that the collective West made in terms of pressuring and challenging Putin
00:16:59
in Ukraine has completely crapped out but I would also go much further than that you look at what's happening in
00:17:05
Israel in Gaza right now and I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all and again just
00:17:13
stepping back these answers don't reflect my desire for what I want to have happened it just reflects my honest
00:17:20
assessment of who the the losers are going to be and I just think that Israel's invasion
00:17:29
is is not going well it does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of
00:17:35
destroying Hamas Admiral Kirby who's the Pentagon spokesperson even said that the
00:17:39
other day which was a pretty amazing admission at the same time Israel is creating a huge humanitarian crisis in
00:17:46
Gaza something like over 20,000 Palestinians have already been killed over 50,000 wounded something
00:17:54
like 1.8 million of them have been displaced and it doesn't look like it's going let up anytime soon as a result of
00:18:00
this Israel is facing I think a huge amount of condemnation internationally it is becoming a bit of a global Pariah
00:18:10
so that is not going well for America and the west and then you're going to have a whole bunch of Elections this
00:18:18
year both in the US and in Europe I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption things are really not going
00:18:28
well Europe right now um large parts of Europe are in recession as a result of losing cheap Russian gas this
00:18:36
particularly true of Germany and I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European
00:18:41
Parliament and I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in in the US election as well all right and I
00:18:48
picked for my biggest political loser I was going to go with the American voter but I'm hoping that the American voters
00:18:52
make better choices and maybe we see some alternative candidates as we said in the last one and I went with
00:18:57
Netanyahu here I think and again this is just my assessment this isn't what I want to occur in the world obviously but
00:19:04
every major Israeli pole is just suggesting that they want him out and they put the odds Vox puts the odds of
00:19:11
his offer at 75% and obviously yeah Gaza is not going well and it feels like there is a
00:19:17
massive shift in terms of what was early support and obvious support for the terror attacks that occurred on 107 and
00:19:25
any reasonable person would be supportive of that to hey maybe what's happening in Gaza is not helping the
00:19:33
situation and needs to be resolved and maybe a different approach has to occur and so I think Netanyahu is going to be
00:19:38
the biggest loser in 2024 all right let's go on to the biggest business winner of 2024 back to
00:19:46
business last year last year in 2023 I predicted laid off Tech workers starting startup companies would be the big
00:19:55
winner chamat you predicted relativity space 3D printing rocket company and Sachs you picked America's natural gas
00:20:01
industry freeberg open AI wow a lot of good choices there I think open AI was a huge winner in 2023 yeah freeberg even
00:20:09
with the chaos say so I would say so that was a good pick massive Revenue the highest market cap gain of the Year
00:20:14
probably yeah 30 to 90 billion yeah American natural gas industry that really actually cooked in uh 2023 yeah
00:20:23
saak yeah yeah it had a new record so good prediction was a good pick yeah good pick all right so let's go right to
00:20:30
2024 predictions freeberg you haven't let us off yet so you're going to lead be the leadoff batter here what do you
00:20:35
got I'm going with commodities businesses which I know isn't speaking a specific business but there's a lot of
00:20:41
ways to play it and I think there's a big Commodities boom that's coming back in
00:20:45
2024 there's been a lot of underinvestment relative to demand over the past call it 18 to 24
00:20:52
months coming out of covid and with Rising interest rates a lot of folks have been selling down inventory and
00:21:00
there now needs to be a build backup on inventory and Supply there's also a bunch of cash coming into the
00:21:06
Commodities markets that was sitting in treasuries as yields go down that cash is coming back so building the base back
00:21:14
up rebuilding stock piles and supplies coming out of the past 18 months obviously economic activity is strong
00:21:19
and robust so Commodities businesses are going to see a a killer 2024 chamat what
00:21:24
do you got I think the biggest business winner in 202 for is going to be the bootstrapped startup and or the
00:21:34
profitable startup but the best will probably be the bootstrapped profitable startup and I
00:21:41
think the reason is that we are underestimating how cheap it's going to be to copy an existing business in
00:21:54
2024 and so if you assume that these models are going to get 10 and 100 times better and you assume the cost of
00:22:01
compute is going to get 10 and 100 times cheaper and you assume the cost of energy is going to get 10 times
00:22:09
cheaper you're no longer measuring in decades when a company will be subject to disruption I think you're measuring
00:22:15
it in frankly months and so I think you're going to be able to create these companies for very cheap and essentially
00:22:23
have them attack an existing business which has upside on economics because they have just a lot of people and a lot
00:22:29
of processes that these gpts can replicate for essentially free so if you're profitable you have
00:22:36
the chance to survive and I think if you are unprofitable I think that you're going to be under a lot of pressure I
00:22:43
think it's a great pick that's exactly what I'm seeing on the field in the early stage saaks who's your prediction
00:22:50
for a biggest business winner of 2024 who do you predict is going to be the biggest business winner I'm predicting
00:22:55
andril for its Roadrunner product which it announced last year and this is a drone Interceptor so basically
00:23:05
intercepts drones it's built for groundbased air defense and the reason I say this is because if you saw recently
00:23:13
what was happening in the Red Sea with the hooes the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to shoot
00:23:20
down $2,000 drones and that is not sustainable so right now we have a huge problem with asymmetric Warfare where
00:23:30
our adversaries are using very cheap missiles very cheap drones swarms of them and they force us to exhaust our
00:23:39
air defenses which are just way too expensive on a unit basis cost hundreds of thousands of dollars do you think
00:23:45
yeah I think that's right I think the road runner system costs hundreds of thousands of dollars but it can be it's
00:23:49
reusable so it's not like you just send one up to take out re if it doesn't blow
00:23:54
up if it does blow up I don't think you can reuse it it basically takes off at at lers this is a basically a AI system
00:24:02
where it's self self-driving I guess if you will it has operators but and then it returns back to its base station
00:24:08
after it's used it's not like a kamakazi type drone it's actually a drone killer
00:24:13
oh really I think it is I think it can do dual purpose it can either intercept and blow something up or it can return
00:24:18
back to base but we'll have to check in on that hey and shout out to our friend pmer lucky come back on the program in
00:24:24
we miss you shout out to our boy are you an investor of saxs in uh Andel no I'm not I'm not an investor but I think I
00:24:29
would be yeah you know so they ra a ton of money Palmer great job yeah no Palmer
00:24:35
we'll all buy actually I'm building a position right now I've been buying secondary in
00:24:40
Andre and for me I was going to go with start up are you really buying secondary
00:24:45
shares in andril I've been building a large position in Andro yes I'm I'm I'm trying to get to a 2% ownership position
00:24:50
so I can join the board so I've been yeah using so shout out to my guy bom we lucky I am going to go with for my
00:24:59
biggest winner in 2024 training data owners like the New York Times Reddit X Twitter Youtube Etc I think what we
00:25:06
learned in 2023 was that the language models are starting to hit parody very quickly and
00:25:13
that the real value is going to be in and it may even become Commodities and open source may win the day so then I
00:25:19
think the winner is folks who have the training data and I'm actually proposing a new business model for these language
00:25:26
models I think now that we've seen this New York Times an open AI lawsuit I think there's a
00:25:32
really great outcome here which is a market-based solution where if you have a chat GPT account you can log
00:25:40
in and Federate with your New York Times subscription or you know any other subscription and then it gives you the
00:25:46
tier of chat gp4 with the New York Times and so that could be a win-win for everybody or they could obviously pay a
00:25:53
licensing fee and so I think this is going to be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry if the
00:26:00
language models respect copyright owners and come up with a sustainable system where every year copyright holders can
00:26:06
get some money in exchange for using their training data whether it's on images or content so I'm very bullish
00:26:13
accumulate a 2% position in open AI through secondary purchases and get them to do that on the board it's only two
00:26:19
billion yeah no I think yeah I I mean we we didn't bring this up because this broke over the the the holiday break but
00:26:25
I think Sam alman's doing a great job of telling people he wants to do the right
00:26:29
thing and we we discussed previously the licensing deal they did with Business Insider and the and the parent company
00:26:34
of it a springer what do you think the deal with New York Times would look like I think it's going to be a nine fig
00:26:39
settlement for previous stuff and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times in their
00:26:45
training data and then you'll be able to say hey what does the New York Times think of this right you could actually
00:26:52
do queries about the New York Times in it and I think the New York Times will come up with a license that everybody
00:26:57
can use their data if they pay this yearly fee if you stop paying the yearly fee then you can't train on it and we're
00:27:04
in Uncharted Territory you're saying there's going to be a New York Times model and a non- New York Times model
00:27:10
well I think you could do two different things one you could do New York Times could make their own model right but
00:27:16
they could Fork their model or just to the user interface say if you want to query New York Times information and
00:27:21
have that as part of your results you have to have a New York Times account right so if you say I want best coffee
00:27:28
machines or what what's the best coffee equipment it says oh if you had wire cutter and the subscription to New York
00:27:34
Times we would include the wire cutter results and this idea that technologists can't do citations has been proven
00:27:41
absolutely incorrect there are language models out there that are using citations all the time open AI I think
00:27:45
will wind up losing the case if it goes to them out and I think they're going to
00:27:48
pay a big licensing fee to your question chamal my prediction then is that if this happens this is not my pick but I'm
00:27:54
just going to tell you I suspect that what happens is you'll get these yearly licensing fees
00:27:59
and then one year the New York Times just falls off a cliff and when it comes time to renegotiate then open AI says no
00:28:08
and and they won't have a choice well I mean that's possibility but if you think
00:28:12
about the Disney characters you know let's I don't know if you saw Nintendo and Disney characters you know making
00:28:17
stuff on dolly or other things if you make derivative works on that and you want to have that feature as part of
00:28:23
your image Creator you just have to have a licensing fee and so I think there's a
00:28:28
win-win here to be had and I I'm really interested to see the market based solution because I don't think this is a
00:28:32
Napster situation where like open a get shuts down because opening eyes too Savvy I bet you the big difference
00:28:38
between Napster and this is there the content Universe was limited and small here it's infinite and unlimited and so
00:28:45
how do you pay anything to anybody without I just think it's like without direct attribution to revenue which is
00:28:50
basically impossible you're kind of making a value judgment which I don't think makes any sense I I think I think
00:28:56
doing a revenue Li licing deal is impossible when you get into the weeds when these business people sit down and
00:29:02
actually start try to figure out the bid ask I don't know as a rational coherent
00:29:07
business person what you would model in order to present a number yeah so one suggestion would be
00:29:15
what percentage of the models creation was using the New York Times data and I think people say 1 to two% of the
00:29:21
original chat GPT was built off a trading data was New York Times and then if they weighted that heavily moth like
00:29:28
let's say they said New York Times is an authoritatively five times more important than these other sources that
00:29:33
could be upwards of 5 to 10% of the authority of that model yeah but yes it's not easy but what's the Cog yeah
00:29:40
but what's the cogs for the like are you telling me that like an AI industry has
00:29:44
this going to be like a 30 40% cost of goods you could say that chat GPT or let's say apple I I predict Apple will
00:29:52
do this right they'll do a language model where they say 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries subscri to
00:29:58
this goes to the people we built it off of or the lies sure why not why not they're already the music industry
00:30:04
already does that that would guarantee the death of the startup ecosystem and it would guarantee the lock in of big
00:30:11
Tech no I don't think so you could build models that don't have the data in you could build models with it so it'll be a
00:30:17
choice by the person who builds the model and synthetic data might make it so you don't need the New York Times
00:30:21
shth it's early days for synthetic G no I don't have an opinion I'm just reacting to this idea that 50% of COG
00:30:27
then all of a sudden these aren't software companies you know these software companies will have a gross
00:30:31
margin of like 30% yeah well what does Spotify pay for music you know so the same arguments made for Spotify you know
00:30:37
or Netflix Jason that's the difference it's limited in scope meaning there's there's only ever one hit song from
00:30:43
Rihanna that matters or Jay-Z or whomever pick Taylor Swift and so it's a very scoped content universe and so you
00:30:51
can ascribe value much easier because then the user goes and actually listens to that song over another this is about
00:30:58
something that's happening under the waterline where you don't know how the iceberg is buil it's both there are
00:31:02
things under the model that do it and then there's also quoting stuff and that's really where the New York Times
00:31:07
got them caught them with their hand in the cookie jar is that when it was regurgitating information and giving the
00:31:12
results it was quoting deeply New York Times proprietary content and so that's that's where there's like a you're
00:31:18
you're right about the training data but you you might be wrong about the the but
00:31:22
that could be fixed right they could train models and they could they could exclude storing any proprietary data you
00:31:29
can create a filter that says the model can't store any of this data but it can still be or can't use it right so if you
00:31:35
say what's the best coffee machine it can't use the New York Times wire cut of data and I I bet you that Sam wman has
00:31:41
already built a model without it I guarantee you they've already built a for an eer press here in case of
00:31:46
emergency here's the 4.5 model in case they got an injunction which would be highly unlikely but if they did get an
00:31:51
injunction they just say okay here's 4.5 it doesn't use the New York Times training data so
00:31:57
this is all Uncharted Territory as we all know I think we got everybody's business predictions okay andril
00:32:03
Commodities training data and bootstop profitable startups what a great cohort there let's go on to biggest business
00:32:09
losers in 2024 2023 chamat said Google search as measured by profitability engagement Sac
00:32:18
said the consumer freeberg said Capital intensive series BC's and DG growth companies
00:32:25
that's pretty pretty good winner there and I said white collar workers without hard skills also known as Surplus
00:32:32
Elites any feedback on those boys as your winner I'll give you my prediction for 24 please yes go ahead vertical SAS
00:32:41
companies I think are going to get smacked this year and I I mentioned this I don't I can't I think we talked about
00:32:46
this sep off off the show but or if we talked about on the show I apologize but like I think these tools to write code
00:32:54
no code tools co-piloting tools and the ability for engineers to get 20 50 100x more productive to build custom
00:33:04
applications for their Enterprise are so incredibly powerful I mentioned this to
00:33:08
you guys I know of a couple uh vertical SAS businesses that some of my companies
00:33:13
use the software and they're getting off the software because they've built Homegrown Solutions at a very lowcost
00:33:20
very low touch way and I'm seeing that so frequently now I think this is a real threat to vertical sasp businesses that
00:33:27
can charge thousands of dollars per seat per year that are getting disrupted by the ability for companies now to very
00:33:33
cheaply and quickly build hom grown Solutions using a lot of the generative tools that are out there sax your
00:33:39
prediction my prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is is actually the German economy there's two big problems
00:33:46
there first is that the loss of cheap Russian gas has really cut the legs out from under the German industrial model
00:33:53
their entire economy is based on Industrial output and cheap Russian gas was sort of at the foundation of that as
00:34:01
you guys know someone blew up the nordstream pipeline I think that has really hurt
00:34:07
the German economy and then second the German car industry has been massively impacted by a sudden glut of cheap cars
00:34:16
coming from China so if you look at the Chinese automotive industry it's really exploded in the last few years and auto
00:34:25
exports is one of you know is one of the biggest products that Germany manufactures and with German costs going
00:34:32
up and Chinese costs coming down that's just not a very good place for them to be so I think double whammy for Germany
00:34:39
shth do you have the biggest business loser in 2024 I am going to say that 24 is the
00:34:48
peak in terms of valuations of professional sports oh and I will give you four examples in 2023 that I think
00:35:00
were in some very concerning or pro sports franchise values as of today the first was you had an upstart competitor
00:35:11
to a league that came out of nowhere used money to overcome the ability to attract Stars I'm talking about the Liv
00:35:20
tour versus the PGA and then essentially Force the PGA into merger talks with them the second was you had a country
00:35:29
use their balance sheet to basically try to jump start their own professional sports business in this case it was
00:35:36
soccer the country was Saudi Arabia and the players were Ronaldo and Messi they got one but not the
00:35:42
other the third was the explosion of nil inside the NCAA you have people in college now making more in some cases
00:35:52
than the same player in a professional sports context so there making millions of dollars to be in college and then the
00:36:00
fourth which may not seem like it's related but there was an article in the Wall Street Journal I think recently
00:36:06
about a meaningful uptick and churn amongst all the streamers Netflix Hulu all of these companies Amazon who are
00:36:15
the only folks with in a position to actually have the balance sheet to keep paying a premium for professional sports
00:36:21
rights so I think when you put that all together you can start to see that there's been a Tipping Point in
00:36:30
Enterprise values the acceleration we've seen over the last decade has slowed down so I would say that 2024 is going
00:36:37
to be the year of peak Pro Sports values okay starts to come down and I went with
00:36:43
smartphones smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown consumers obviously love their phones and use them
00:36:49
constantly but people are skipping a generation of phones and if you look at Apple's Revenue they're having a very
00:36:56
hard time getting people to upgrade and so I think that's going to flatten out they will keep trying to squeeze money
00:37:01
out of it I don't know what you guys spent on your iPhone 15 if you got it but I I always buy the top of the line
00:37:06
and I think it was $14 or $1,500 this time and when I got the accountants they said oh is this a new laptop I said no
00:37:14
it's a new phone but I think this is going to slow down and people will during austerity they're going to skip
00:37:20
to a three versions of it I know I skipped for the first time I skipped the 14 this time around so I'm going with
00:37:25
smartphone manufacturers and apple would be obviously the tip of that spear let's
00:37:29
keep moving our next prediction biggest business deal of 2024 biggest business deal of 2024 I
00:37:36
went with uh last year my prediction was Amazon getting into Healthcare maybe they buy pelaton or Roman hyns and they
00:37:43
have been getting into Healthcare a bunch more and my my wild card was a CCP divesting of Tik Tock that didn't happen
00:37:50
chamat you went starlink goes public in a spin out from SpaceX at 75 billion that didn't happen but starlink is doing
00:37:57
fantastic Sachs you said a deal between Putin and she and then freeberg you said Petro for Juan trade
00:38:05
the Saudi China trade any thoughts on the predictions there doesn't look like anybody nailed it well no actually Putin
00:38:12
G did make a deal their ties have never been stronger and the trade between those two countries keeps increasing as
00:38:18
a result of the fact that we pushed Russia into China's arm so that absolutely happened and what's your
00:38:23
prediction to sh saxs biggest business deal Sachs what do you got my biggest business deal is whatever the FED
00:38:29
decides to do to replace or extend btfp the bank term funding program um remember that the btfp which is what the
00:38:38
FED used to bail out the regional banking system last year and was it like March or April it was only supposed to
00:38:45
last for one year it's supposed to be a temporary program but I do not think that the balance sheets of regional
00:38:51
banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program program so I think the
00:38:57
fed's going to have to do something to either replace a program extend the program they're going to have to do
00:39:03
something and I think that Regional banks are still in pretty bad shape with you know impaired commercial debt
00:39:12
portfolios and they need this liquidity as long as the yield curve remains inverted so I think the FED is going to
00:39:20
try and somehow figure out a program to keep these guys liquid until they can de invert the
00:39:30
yield curve and I think the fed's trying to massage all of this into place without there being a recession seems
00:39:36
like they'll be able to do it jamat what do you got I'm going to go with the same
00:39:40
thing I think I was just off by your starlink go public fascinating I like it and I had a
00:39:48
similar theme my Wild Card my wild card last year that the C CP would divest of Tik Tok I'm going to say this year that
00:39:56
I think Tik Tok goes public and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off
00:40:04
the board so I'm going to go with bite dance taking going public or Tik Tok spinning out and going public some some
00:40:09
version of that freeberg what do you got for this year we got some continuation bets here from Jake Allen yeah I would
00:40:15
keep going with my Petro Yuan trade bet I don't think that the us is going to let Saudi become a nuclear power but so
00:40:22
maybe leave that one outstanding but I think rights holder is getting LIC ing deals for generative AI there's going to
00:40:28
be a couple of Blockbuster deals this year great where you'll see like Disney license out a chunk of their Library so
00:40:35
people can generate on demand video games or content or I don't know you guys remember this company in the early
00:40:41
2000s called Zazzle do you remember that company yeah what was that printed stuff
00:40:45
on mugs yeah and they had a big deal with Disney where the idea was you could put any character in any way you want on
00:40:53
any piece of like t-shirt or mug or whatever merch yeah and it was like merch and it was a big deal I think we
00:41:00
see that again with generative AI this year where you can take for example a character from a movie and generate them
00:41:06
in an image so anyone that has in in interest in content rights will start to license it out and get a lot of value
00:41:12
from it absolutely see a couple big deals like that this year okay most contrarian belief of
00:41:18
2024 I went American exceptionalism Source I think I I like that prediction from last year ah had chamat you said
00:41:24
inflation doesn't fall off a cliff fastest people want saak says the Bromance between Biden and zalinsky
00:41:30
comes to an end freeberg you said 2023 marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the global Reserve currency I
00:41:37
nailed that one um it it didn't fall off a cliff it didn't what was inflation in the first
00:41:46
quarter of 2023 just kidding it fell off a cliff oh I'm like it yeah I'm like wait a second it's like what the you
00:41:53
talking about yeah sorry you're confusing like really wait a second I think you get the Jim Kramer or the
00:41:59
professor Galloway moment for that prediction yeah I think you might have missed that one by a bit all right what
00:42:05
do you got chath for this year what do you got most contrarian belief of 2024 I think the Enterprise value of open AI
00:42:11
goes down oh okay I don't think it has anything to do with open AI I think it has everything to do with the rest of
00:42:19
the industry I I think there's a couple of factors at play similar to what I just said earlier but if you actually
00:42:27
try to use these tools which now I have been in my sort of day job as as CEO I've been trying to build models Sunny's
00:42:35
been helping me my takeaway are two things number one is the latency right now amongst all these AI tools makes
00:42:43
building production quality code absolutely impossible so you can't have apis where you take 30 40 50 seconds in
00:42:51
between a request to get data back it's that's ridiculous these need to be starter yeah 50 30 40 70 milliseconds
00:43:00
second is the actual cost of a million tokens on any of these platforms is economically untenable if
00:43:11
you're trying to build something so whether it's Amazon whether it's together AI whether it's open AI it's
00:43:18
extremely extremely expensive so I think that capitalism would tell you that if these two things
00:43:25
are true you should expect people to Arbitrage that opening and so if you see cloud
00:43:33
services come out that allow you to basically get millisecond latency batch size one on the one hand and second
00:43:40
where you have pricing for a million tokens that's sort of 10 20 cents those folks and they'll need to
00:43:47
build their own custom Hardware to do it but those folks will multiply the capability of this Market by a
00:43:54
THX and I think when that happens the open source models really proliferate proprietary models and closed models go
00:44:03
under pressure and the existing economics of how you make money today will get reallocated to those different
00:44:09
players and I think in that it's going to be very hard for existing folks I I would say the same is probably true for
00:44:15
NVIDIA the folks that have won up until today to maintain a multiple of market cap in this next year if that happens
00:44:23
and so my prediction is that will happen and as a result the Enterprise values of
00:44:28
of those companies and I think open a will be the most obvious will go down people buying secondary at 90 billion
00:44:33
right now will be underwater next year well no it's again they have to believe that the revenue composition
00:44:40
today is sustainable and if you look under the hood half the revenue is consumers paying subscriptions the other
00:44:46
half the revenue our Enterprises paying for essentially some version of AWS yes but the problem is that version of AWS
00:44:55
is econom ially non functional it's unsustainable it's way too expensive and it's way too slow and by the way that's
00:45:04
just not an open AI problem it's an entire industry problem and so if this industry is really going to be real it
00:45:10
needs to be literally dirt cheap and as close to zero as possible the minute that that happens that Revenue goes away
00:45:16
so then they they're just left with the subscription and by the way the people that provide that will be the ones that
00:45:20
have the hardware to enable that thousand Xing of the cost which is azure AWS and no I think these are startups
00:45:29
that are building proprietary Hardware oh okay wow so there's another prediction freeberg what do you got 2024
00:45:34
prediction most contrarian belief okay so I don't think we're past the conflict escalation stage I think things are only
00:45:41
going to continue to mount so a lot of the theater that we see on a global stage is
00:45:49
more fundamentally driven by these big cycles that we're in so I think a big one and a kind of tactical one I think
00:45:58
the big one that's contrarian is that there's an increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first
00:46:04
time in conflict and I think that that's conditioned on the fact that there are declining military uh supplies there's
00:46:14
declining appetite and capacity to support traditional conflict meat grinder type conflicts that that we're
00:46:20
seeing Sprout up everywhere right now and or not everywhere but in a lot of places and you could see a moment where
00:46:28
as I mentioned in the past someone gets backed into a corner and a tactical low yield nuclear weapon gets used and I
00:46:33
think that when you do that it opens up the gates to hell so it's a little scary
00:46:36
that's why you know we all joking aside that's why you bought the radiation suits and and by the way I don't think
00:46:43
this is a high probability and I'm not joking I don't think it's a high probability I think it's like one you
00:46:47
know call it one to two% chance something like this happens but it's 10x where it was five years ago and so
00:46:52
that's the outcome of this is terrifying yeah yeah it's such a significant event
00:46:57
that it's it's definitely one to kind of be be thoughtful about um and then the other one that I kind of said was
00:47:02
tactical is I think there's a risk that turkey gets challenged to leave NATO that a lot of what's going on right
00:47:09
now where turkey is siding with Hamas this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time there's no
00:47:16
real mechanism by the way for kicking a member out of NATO but I'll share with you guys there's a lot of political
00:47:21
commentary that turkey cannot be a trusted Ally and obviously that now you know turkey is siding with folks who are
00:47:28
actual threats uh to the West the US incentive is you don't want to see turkey with the biggest one of the
00:47:32
biggest armies in Europe run into Russia's arms you're going to try to keep them in NATO but there is a real
00:47:39
risk that you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen with turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation
00:47:45
on something that happens this year so that that's one that I keep an eye on that is certainly not top of anyone's
00:47:50
mind but it certainly begins to beg the question of the uh the importance NATO what do you got sxs your most contrarian
00:47:59
belief can I first just make a comment on last year's pick yes if it's okay so I you know last year I felt like I was
00:48:05
going out in a limb predicting a rift in the Bromance between Biden and zalinsky
00:48:09
because that relationship seem so tight and with about four days left in the year there was this article that
00:48:17
came out in Politico that says the Biden Administration is quietly shifting its strategy in Ukraine the article
00:48:22
basically says that the administration wants to go on the defensive and I think pretty clearly it wants a ceasefire and
00:48:28
a frozen conflict it wants to get this conflict sort of out of the way swept under the rug before the election season
00:48:36
really cranks into high gear and the problem they have is that zalinski does not want to negotiate a ceasefire with
00:48:44
Russia that would involve Ukraine losing territory so there is now a rift between
00:48:50
maybe not Biden himself but let's say Biden operatives the Biden Administration and what zalinsky wants
00:48:56
and I think this will be a theme in 2024 is how do you reign in zalinski after you've been telling the public for
00:49:05
the last two years that our job is to support whatever zalinsky wants and your prediction for this year so my
00:49:11
prediction for for this year is that the soft Landing gets very bumpy I think that over the last two months of the
00:49:17
year I think markets got super optimistic they started pricing in big Fed rate Cuts you know let's call it one
00:49:23
and a half% so we had this h stock market rally in November December and I think there's generally a very strong
00:49:30
belief that the FED will be able to pull off the soft Landing I'm not necessarily saying that
00:49:36
there's going to be a recession I just you know I feel like I've predicted 10 of the last two recessions
00:49:41
so I keep basically predicting recession when there's not one yeah but I do think
00:49:46
that there's just been too much too soon of this Euphoria and I just think that this year is going to be a lot bumpier
00:49:54
than that both politically and economically so I think there's just a little bit too much Euphoria and
00:50:01
overoptimism right now I'm tempted to go again with American exceptionalism I think I nailed that last year America
00:50:07
just had an amazing year in 2023 while Xi Jinping made unforced errors and getting rid of capitalism in his country
00:50:15
and nobody starting companies there and stock market falling apart real estate falling apart and now he's coming back
00:50:19
to America as we saw when he had a summit with Biden asking people please come back and invest again huge unforced
00:50:25
and I think Russia with the huge unforced era losing hundreds of thousands of their citizens their young
00:50:31
people to a senseless War for no reason and losing customers in the west like Germany as you pointed out Sachs I think
00:50:39
American exceptionalism will continue to sore but I don't want to take the same prediction so I also consider two other
00:50:47
options Apple making huge gains in generative Ai and then streaming services right sizing and becoming
00:50:53
highly profitable and having a rebound between those two I think I'm going to go with apple as my contrarian belief I
00:50:59
think apple is going to become a player in AI the end of the year maybe they reboot
00:51:04
Siri but they're going to figure something out and I think they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes
00:51:11
to AI so I'm going to go with apple making huge gains in generative AI or AI in general maybe a new Seri coming soon
00:51:18
best performing asset of 2024 in 2023 I went with seed stage investing I think I'll be proven right in 5 years
00:51:26
but that's kind of hard to prove in the short term chth you said cash and the front end of the yield curve s went with
00:51:31
short-term T bills as well and freeberg you went with semiconductor Capital Equipment oil gas Services Pharma
00:51:39
infrastructure anybody have thoughts on their predictions from last year Dash was pretty good at 5% no kidding right
00:51:44
as good as it gets yeah this's just not a lot of motivation to enter the markets
00:51:48
when you're earning five five and a half% risk free Okay so let's do our 20 sem cap equipment up 60% aming Good Year
00:51:56
good year freeberg what do you got what's your prediction for best performing asset of this coming year oh
00:52:01
I took the uranium ETF Ur Easy Money whether it plays out in the next 12 months or over time I'm not sure it's
00:52:09
shift an inevitability a lot of folks have this beted on this trade on it's it's kind of Anil that we have to
00:52:16
see it's a it's an index on businesses that benefit from Mining and producing nuclear power mining uranium producing
00:52:25
nuclear power China is building up 450 nuclear power stations as we' talked about there's a lot of ESG driven demand
00:52:31
and a lot of conflict driven demand big shift underway a lot of deregulatory effort
00:52:36
underway globally to try and get nuclear back on track nuclear power back on track so these companies are going to
00:52:43
benefit from this pig macro cycle so it's a and this is an existing ETF or you're saying you you you roll one no
00:52:49
called uranium it's a uranium tracking ETF Ur is the ticker I like a lot in I do a lot of esoteric General
00:52:59
statements this one I thought I'd go a little specific I like it I mean it's it's it's a great prediction and
00:53:05
sentiment has certainly changed here in the US by way that trade has been on right so since I'll just tell you guys
00:53:10
it bottomed out in March of this year at 19 bucks it's up 50% since then and in the last five years you know it's up
00:53:19
2x but plenty of room to run if you look at the underlying assets that BTF tracks
00:53:25
chath what do you got best performing asset of 2024 what's your prediction I have to do it with the worst performing
00:53:30
asset of 2024 because it's a bit of a spread trade so I'm going to take the public software
00:53:37
index Tech stock index and my short is going to be the private tech software companies the late stage mostly SAS
00:53:46
companies and I think we've all talked about the reasons why but I think that the terminal valuations are getting
00:53:52
reset in the public markets I don't think the growth rates are there in the private companies and so you're going to
00:53:59
have a reset on valuation in many cases that reset may just be that they stay at
00:54:05
the same valuation 3 years later even after doubling revenue or more the problem is you will have taken another
00:54:12
30% delution between now and then because of all the stock-based comp that these
00:54:17
private companies give out so long the public Tech cycle short the private late stage Tech cycle expecting a valuation
00:54:26
contraction in the ladder what do you got sxs what do you think is going to be the best performing asset of
00:54:31
2024 well I'm really not sure about this so I would urge nobody to actually trade
00:54:36
on this but yes this is not investment advice to be clear none of this is investment advice yeah I'm not I'm not
00:54:43
trading on this on these predictions so you shouldn't either my guess here just a guess is energy is energy stocks um
00:54:51
Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024 just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out
00:54:59
now and escalating so I agree with freeberg that there are huge risks of escalation in the Middle East the
00:55:06
Ukraine war is still going on I think not enough attention is being paid to what's happening between Venezuela and
00:55:13
Guyana uh Venezuela is basically attempting to Annex guyana's offshore oil reserves
00:55:21
which are huge this is basically just pure theft Ethiopia ALS o has tense relationships with a few of its
00:55:28
neighbors and I could easily see there being a war that breaks out between Ethiopia and Egypt or
00:55:34
Ethiopia and irraa and and then that could spill over and create further disruption in
00:55:41
the Red Sea we also still have this unresolved issue of the hoodies and of course you have neocon bring for war
00:55:47
with Iran as they always do John Bolton just published another piece saying that
00:55:51
we had to go to war with Iran so there's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create I think a
00:55:59
spike in the price of oil all right I you know I'd love to I in my heart of hearts I believe the best performing
00:56:06
asset will still be seed stage startups but I'm going to go with consumer Comfort
00:56:12
Services I think as austerity measures and this whether we have a soft Landing or recession it's clear the consumers
00:56:20
have spent all their money so they're going to go for small luxuries like door Dash BNB Uber small things to have great
00:56:29
experiences and I'm talking my book in two out of those three which I own shares in but I think consumers are
00:56:34
going to keep treating themselves to getting some door Dash or uh you know getting an Airbnb and going to Japan or
00:56:41
whatever it happens to be so consumer Comfort Services is my pick for the best performing asset of 2024 worst
00:56:47
performing asset let's go right on to worst performing asset we're cooking with oil worst performing asset I went
00:56:53
with energy Cho Tech energy junk debt saak went with offic hours in San Francisco and Friberg went with Consumer
00:57:00
Credit wow I think we nailed it in almost all those cases here what do we got for
00:57:06
2024 saki got a 2024 prediction of worst performing asset again this is not investing advice yeah so I'm not going
00:57:13
to trade on this so just take it with a grain of salt but I would bet against the Magnificent 7 just because I believe
00:57:21
that what goes up must come down and the hotter they are the Harder They Fall I'm
00:57:25
not saying that the Magnificent 7 are actually going to go down I'm just saying that the S&P
00:57:31
493 are going to catch up a little bit so I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over
00:57:40
the mnon 7 because again I just think that there's got to be some catching up here and the huge gains made by the
00:57:49
Magnificent 7 were really based on story you know based on AI and I don't see why
00:57:57
those gains should be limited to the Magnificent 7 if AI is going to play such a big role in the economy chamat I
00:58:05
too when you predicted earlier about open ey losing some value my worst performing asset in 2024 is llm startups
00:58:13
I believe they've been massively overvalued and I believe open source is making an incredible run at them and I
00:58:18
think they're going to hit parody and there's too many players this is like having 15 search engines or 20 Amazon
00:58:24
there's just too many players and there's too much parody the prices make no sense and I think they're all going
00:58:29
to come down by you know 50 60 70 80% in terms of their valuations that that won't get marked in their books but that
00:58:37
will be the reality of where their stocks will trade on the private markets freeberg what's your worst performing
00:58:43
asset worst performing asset just based on what I shared earlier I would go short vertical
00:58:48
sass vertical software companies and long Cloud providers that have ai tools and platforms that will allow
00:58:56
Enterprises to build custom applications in a low cost low code way and so you could obviously pick the companies that
00:59:05
would go in that bucket go along those those Cloud bucket and go short the vertical bucket is there like a per seat
00:59:11
price threshold that you think would kind of demarcate the companies that you think are at risk in other words like I
00:59:19
invest in plenty of SAS companies that sell seats at five 10 bucks per per month I'm just like very
00:59:27
skeptical that it's worth an Enterprises while to recreate that software no and and so I'll give you an example there's
00:59:33
a vertical software provider we're paying five grand per seat per year right now and we
00:59:44
look at that and we're like okay it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical let's just go
00:59:50
recreate that and did it very quickly very low cost and we're going to replace it
00:59:55
cut that out I don't want to say that but yeah is it so it's it's like you know very specific very expensive but I mean
01:00:03
sax you could probably see the same thing happen in sales CRM type tools that are obviously also very expensive
01:00:08
and how much is it D how much do you pay five grand grand year five grand per year so that's basically over $400 a
01:00:18
seat per we we have like 100 employees so we're paying like 500 Grand and so one of our software engineers is like
01:00:25
this spins up a replacement for it we're going to roll it out in q1 okay so is there is there like a per se per month
01:00:32
price that you think starts to where it doesn't work is it 50 bucks what is the number I I I I mean I do the math but
01:00:38
yeah it shouldn't be in the range that it's at for sure but a lot of these guys where they had a monopoly and it wasn't
01:00:43
worth the company's time to try and invest in software at the price point that they were charging they found a
01:00:48
market now the market has to compress so I'm not saying that the companies go away but I do think pricing compression
01:00:53
is going to hurt these business a lot if you pay could pay 50,000 for the same software instead of 500 you would not
01:00:59
have spun it up yourself so there is a reasonable number between those two correct and that reasonable number might
01:01:04
be 250 or something but and here's the thing that we need to also factor in which is that free Berg's companies that
01:01:10
engineer could also then just release that product for everybody else to use at 10 and everybody else will then use it
01:01:19
because it'll be good enough and that and that 80% solution will take over the will take over the market yeah that's my
01:01:25
point there's going to be price and compression this is the thing like I think that people underestimate how
01:01:28
deflationary this whole thing is it's like ex it's it's like two to three orders of magnitude more deflationary
01:01:34
than people have any inkling of yep interestingly I had David hanmar Hansen on this weekend startups and they're
01:01:41
releasing something called on.com where they're going to charge for software one
01:01:44
time like we used to do and their first product is a slack killer and so the idea of paying per seat for slack what
01:01:51
they're planning to do is just charge you you know 95 no you find a hosting company soost
01:01:59
okay so old school it's old school old old school on Prem software on Prem and then you pay you pay an upgrade fee when
01:02:05
you upgrade the software basically I think they're GNA you're paying them like a maintenance percentage that's the
01:02:10
way just you guys old school enterprise software right the pricing model was the
01:02:15
revenue model was always built that when you did a sale you would make on average
01:02:18
20% of the revenue per year in update fees and so that and then everything switch to SAS which just continue
01:02:26
support support maintenance all that kind of stuff so it's never they say it's one time it's one time for the
01:02:31
software but if you want to stay up to dat and get support and patches and all that kind offf main yeah and the old
01:02:37
school enterprise software model was always like figure 20% of the install cost right and by the way this is one of
01:02:44
the reasons why Oracle made so much money is they did a roll up of all these old school on-prem software companies
01:02:51
that weren't growing but the maintenance fees were just rolling in forever Y and
01:02:55
they rolled all that stuff up and then probably raised the fees I mean for me you know when you have a 20 person
01:03:00
company 50 person company the slack fees don't seem like a big deal but when you
01:03:05
get to you know when you're spending $500,000 or a million dollars a year on something like slack you know then maybe
01:03:10
you would consider other options and I know people at large organizations that have done that because there's an open
01:03:15
source competitor to it so that does exist in the world okay no but what freeberg is bringing up is like why
01:03:21
would you support 500,000 to million doar a year Opex for software I mean can you really put a model together that
01:03:31
shows that that's somehow a creative to you especially if you're a money losing startup it just doesn't make any logical
01:03:37
sense I understand that it happens and the fact that that software SAS companies have been able to make 80 to
01:03:42
90% margins and grow on that it has created the best business model in history but I think what may become
01:03:48
apparent now is that the SAS business model is really a temporary phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the
01:03:55
internet and the development of AI and lowc cost low code tools uh for developing software yeah the D it was an
01:04:02
Arbitrage of the dir of Engineers it was the gross margin that was correlated to
01:04:06
the lack and now now that the work that software Engineers could have done has been automated into software itself you
01:04:13
are going to see a lot of that Arbitrage say differently free you could say like
01:04:18
the number of Engineers has now multiplied by a millionfold that's right and now everyone has them a so then the
01:04:25
gross margins were not going to be 90% the gross margins maybe 30% right and so so everything gets competed away and
01:04:31
pricing goes down pricing gets compressed and that's why this is a big macro trend for me like I'm and I'm just
01:04:35
seeing it across every company everyone's rethinking whether or not to pay the seat fees for all different
01:04:39
types of software tools by the way the the part of that which is economically true is if you look at every other
01:04:46
category in the economy and you look at the gross margin profile of businesses that are not pure play Tech we have
01:04:53
grown up and we've monetized this belief that tech companies not only can start at 80 to 90% but stay there inde
01:05:00
definitely stay there yeah they should be at 40% not even every other Market can start off in the 50 60 70% when
01:05:07
they're nent but capitalism competes away those Market down to 30 to 40% right and a best-in-class business
01:05:14
generates 20 to 25% ebit margins on a sustained basis so if you believe that the average bestr run company is a 35%
01:05:23
gross margin business with 20 to 25% free cash flow mergin tech stocks have a long way to go
01:05:29
down exactly exactly software software companies yeah software companies but if it's priced below the cost of you
01:05:36
rebuilding it then you're not you're just it's a buyer Jason the point is the point is like when somebody does that so
01:05:43
freed BG's company did that work he doesn't even need to need want to make a profit from that software to just say
01:05:49
anybody else can use this I have an auto GPT that will basically configure myself
01:05:56
to you if you want to use it and now that n plus first company who's starting up with two or three people can now
01:06:02
raise an order of magnitude less money and will write a GPT that connects to his and now has this so this is my point
01:06:10
where like it just it's it's it's just a race to the bottom y all right last year
01:06:15
for our most anticipated Trend shth and I both picked austerity feels like that came to fruition s you picked you're
01:06:24
kidding right we did not see any austerity we uh added like two trillion to the debt 34 trillion I was talking
01:06:32
about consumers and and companies and individuals well consumers didn't didn't uh cut either I mean they kept spending
01:06:39
and in fact credit card debt is now at the highest level it's ever been so where's the
01:06:43
austerity uh I think it's happening right now where people are maxed out you're already starting to see it happen
01:06:49
with travel in some of those areas but uh yeah we could be off by six months on this one uh sa you said Trump's
01:06:55
influence in the GOP Wes that was definitely wrong yeah that was fful thinking freeberg sell genene Wishful
01:07:02
for you Wishful for you too you don't over and over again you don't want him as your candidate well I can explain
01:07:09
that I mean at the end of 2022 we had that election That was supposed to be a red wave and it turned
01:07:14
into a red puddle remember that and re it was a big loser for the GOP and a lot of the candidates I'd say in particular
01:07:23
the candidates who had been endorsed and supported by Trump ended up losing not doing very well so and then by contrast
01:07:30
it seemed like the one part of the country where the Republicans done incredibly well was in Florida where
01:07:36
obvious Des won by like 20 points and added seats to their majority in the legislature so it seemed like going into
01:07:43
the year that danis was kind of the ER apparent and Trump's influence would wne but like you said that may have been
01:07:50
wishful thinking it's clearly not what's happened but a big part of the reason why Trump's influence is greater than
01:07:57
ever is because of all this lawfare all these indictments against him and this uh prosecution and persecution of him by
01:08:05
Biden and his minions it's really I think galvanized the base to support Trump freeberg last year you said cell gene
01:08:12
therapy becoming more mainstream how did that one pan out your prediction most imp Trend I don't know
01:08:19
about mainstream but I mean we're seeing we've seen more approvals this year it's
01:08:23
been good I mean steady steady pace of saw the CLE cell product come out CLE cell
01:08:28
came to Market yep there's a few more that got approved so in cell therapy so it's great yeah we're seeing good
01:08:34
progress there and I I remember there's like over a thousand in clinicals so there's this tidal wave coming to Market
01:08:40
soon of cell and Gene therapies that are going to have a profound effect on a lot
01:08:44
of disease conditions so really exciting freeberg you want to continue and tell us what your most anticipated so this
01:08:50
year I'm really excited uh based on the progress we've seen in 2023 of predictive models AI driven discovery
01:08:58
of Novel molecules materials and methods of production in biofarma in chemical engineering lots of new materials and
01:09:10
new drugs that are actually coming out of software not coming out of Brute Force wet lab Discovery processing and
01:09:18
then we're also seeing these really amazing generative systems on production processes in chemistry
01:09:24
that are going to unlock all of these new products and drop costs going back to the deflationary point not only does
01:09:29
this introduce new products into the world that are going to benefit Humanity but it reduces the cost of making them
01:09:34
and reduces the footprint of making them so there's a lot of great benefit coming
01:09:38
from these predictive modeling tools that's starting to percolate its way into these industries so I'm excited
01:09:42
about seeing what comes to Market this year I'm sure we're going to have a science Corner at some point this year
01:09:46
that says look at this amazing new thing that was discovered in software and it works and it's going to be really cool
01:09:53
okay what do you got jamath for your most anticipated trend of 2024 what are you most anticipating Jam I think this
01:09:59
is the most important year for Bitcoin that has ever existed we are probably days away from a
01:10:08
series of ETFs being approved and so this is the moment for Bitcoin to to use that old term cross
01:10:17
the casm and really seen mainstream adoption where our parents and our grand parents understand what it is can buy it
01:10:29
and then do buy it and I think that if all of this comes to pass Bitcoin will be a part of the traditional Financial
01:10:37
lexicon by the end of 2024 so that is my most anticipated trend of the year what
01:10:42
do you got Sachs for your most Anti anticipated trend of the Year Sachs whatam said is a pretty good one I think
01:10:47
there's a version of that same thing in AI I mean I I it's hard to know exactly what all the advancements are going to
01:10:53
be be in AI but you know when we look back on it in 5 or 10 years it's going to be pretty clear that the exponential
01:11:01
pace of advancement in AI continued and so I can't say exactly what those breakthroughs are going to be this year
01:11:08
but they certainly are going to be some and I think we'll see those Innovations continue to percolate down to more and
01:11:16
more of the average sort of mainstream consumer Sachs once again you and I are sympatico I picked my most anticipated
01:11:24
trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI advances and Outsourcing basically
01:11:31
a lot of Americans don't want to work or they want to work from home or they want
01:11:34
High salaries we have record low unemployment thanks to Biden I'm joking but all of this is forcing people to
01:11:43
build robots Ai and software to Route Around you know and make things more efficient and I think the number one
01:11:51
Trend I'm seeing from startups and they tend to adopt this stuff early is outsourcing to all other geographies
01:11:58
around the world for work because it's so easy Once you have a work from home philosophy uh or Paradigm at your
01:12:06
company well adding somebody from Portugal Manila Argentina Canada is the same as adding somebody from outside of
01:12:13
New York City or Silicon Valley or LA but you can do so at a third of the price for somebody maybe
01:12:19
who really wants the work and so I think efficiency is my most anticipated Trend
01:12:26
but in the form of AI and Outsourcing okay now media everybody loves when we do our most anticipated media for
01:12:35
2024 for last year I had Oppenheimer wow that was great chamath you had Dune part
01:12:42
two that was delayed saak you also had Oppenheimer what did you think of Oppenheimer sax who did a deliver for
01:12:47
you have you seen it I thought it was good not great it was very long and it kind of went on and on
01:12:53
yeah it's not a movie I need to see a second time let's put it that way okay and freeberg you said generative AI
01:12:59
based media for this year I'm I have to confess I have inside information so my prediction is going to be the winner it
01:13:09
turns out our favorite DJ is dropping a new album in 2024 and I got a release track so my
01:13:17
most anticipated media I'll just play the the unreleased track here what is this according to NASA there's a new
01:13:24
look at Uranus Uranus Uranus talk about myus Uranus Uranus is this young Spielberg
01:13:38
this is Young Spielberg coming at you the Summer Jam of the Year Urus how was your it's a
01:13:49
banger well there it is talk about myus coming at you Banger he obviously likes the Deep base of my voice he does like
01:13:57
the Deep base of your voice in his in yes so that's a banger that's going to be I think the that's gonna carry that's
01:14:03
gonna be the summer Anthem the new album from Young Spiel book dropping that's the lead title track your anus coming at
01:14:10
you I also am looking forward to Gladiator too is coming out really Scott Lucius the nephew of commos is a grown
01:14:17
man it's going to be awesome I hope and Netflix's three body problem if you haven't read the books they're great and
01:14:23
that's being done by The Game of Thrones guys that's gonna come out March and that's gonna be
01:14:29
awesome D and D anyway three body problem Gladiator once the books ran out they were kind of yeah they were kind of
01:14:37
on their own there and the show kind of declined it was a terrible last season in this case the three body problem is a
01:14:44
complete series and it's it's mind-blowing in terms of its epicness SX what's your most anticipated media of
01:14:50
2024 is there a Putin biography coming out is it Alex Jones's biography 10p part series on Netflix what do you got
01:14:58
what are you looking forward to well I I agree with you about Gladiator 2 we actually have similar taste in in movies
01:15:04
I'm also looking forward to House of the Dragon season 2 oh yes but one project I
01:15:09
will give a little plug to is Jimmy Sony's book the founders which is the story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs
01:15:16
who shaped Sil Valley that came out in 2022 the reason I'm mentioning it is because I optioned this book along with
01:15:24
Jack Selby who's another PayPal Mafia Alum who has a film company and so we've optioned this and we have just made a
01:15:31
deal with Drake's company called dream crew to turn this into some sort of television series could be done as a
01:15:38
docu wait did you say Drake the musician Drake yeah he actually has a very successful production company called
01:15:44
dream crew they're the producers of euphoria which is this huge hit oh sure on HBO terrifying so they've decided to
01:15:51
it is kind of a terrifying show if you have kids it's terrifying it is terrifying incred show terrifying it's
01:15:57
an incredible show but terrifying and yeah it is scary any event it's a big hit so they've produced a lot of not
01:16:04
just music but television content they're very interested in the story and so we're partnering with them to create
01:16:10
a TV show so hopefully that comes together this year are you in production this year on it or is it no it's going
01:16:15
into development this year then hopefully you get an EP credit sex yeah how much does it cost for the rest of us
01:16:21
to get EP credits 50 50 Grand yeah is it a 50 grander or is a little this is this is uh this is gonna be an
01:16:31
expensive one oh really well who's your dream is it HBO is a dream or Netflix yeah who or Netflix ultimately a studio
01:16:38
would make this right you would want HBO or Netflix I take it those are the top two in terms of making high quality
01:16:44
stuff they would be really good yeah it doesn't have to those two but they would
01:16:46
be good it could be Amazon Prime I mean there's a lot of these and who are you hoping plays a young sack who would play
01:16:52
a Young good question that's good question who would play a Young David saaks what's
01:16:59
the name of the guy that's dating Zena what's what's his name Tom Holland how about that Tom Holland oh Peter Parker
01:17:05
Peter Parker yeah how about Millie Bobby Brown for you only one guy can play a young sex that it would be Ryan gos well
01:17:12
you guys are really shooting the moon with this Tom Holland's interesting J K's busy on the internet right now he's
01:17:18
gonna give no I'm looking I'm looking on the internet for a young actor to play USX well well let the audience come back
01:17:24
to that let the audience decide who plays a young sax yeah chath you looking forward to anything in in uh media in
01:17:30
2024 did you have anything for us to uh look out for Jimmy Donaldson Mr Beast added a 100 million subscribers on
01:17:37
YouTube in 2023 more than two times the next largest channel and if you watch his
01:17:45
content Mr Beast channel it's incredible and that has become event based viewing now for hundreds of
01:17:54
millions of people so I am really excited to see what production value gets cranked out in 2024 from these guys
01:18:01
but my that's my most anticipated media is uh is Mr Beast and Freebird you anything you're looking
01:18:08
forward to in the media space in 2024 I mean I put AI generated news which I think has become like an
01:18:17
interesting have you guys seen these where there's like a broadcaster that just tells you the news and they're like
01:18:21
naked I haven't seen that no that was the thing in the early days of the internet right wasn't there like naked
01:18:27
news or something no that was like a meme from Naked News it was like naked news where like these people would be
01:18:33
like in in the process of undressing as they as they like read the news it was so stupid
01:18:40
Oh really it was really dumb but I it did capture people's imagination Naked News you could basically watch
01:18:46
newscasters n could read the news I do think you're going to see a lot of this real time generative video that's going
01:18:51
to take as a it's input uh news feeds and develop some understanding and then present it back to you in whatever
01:18:59
visual format you want and so you'll have your own personal newscaster presenting you the stuff that's
01:19:04
interesting and be like no no no tell me less about the Middle East tell me more
01:19:07
about Wall Street tell me more about tech and you can basically interact with it and curate your own personal Newsfeed
01:19:13
whether that's through video or through text or through audio you can have it presented to you any way you want so I'm
01:19:18
really excited for the DAT that happen so I don't have to Doom scroll through Twitter all the time to get news and I
01:19:23
can have you know a personally currated news caster to your point one of the things that one of the
01:19:30
tasks that I had this year was to kind of like take a model and learn how to fine-tune it and sunny and I we took uh
01:19:36
stable diffusion and there's a mod to it called Juggernaut XL which basically produces no the most beautiful people
01:19:43
you've ever seen like under any boundary condition it doesn't matter what prompt
01:19:47
you give handsome the people that it generates are the most stunningly symmetrically beautiful beautiful people
01:19:54
and all it's going to take to your point is just just put this stuff together next year and you'll have these people
01:20:01
that capture your attention and can keep your attention and they'll tell you the
01:20:04
news or whatever and you can just say skip you can say tell me more you can say go back you can say hey I want to
01:20:10
hear more like double click on that story and interact with it it's going to be incredible I do think it's it's going
01:20:15
to happen in 2024 where a series of products will come out that start to look like this and it'll get in
01:20:21
terms if that as they're telling the news you can have another agent that's basically scoring it and telling you how
01:20:27
biased it is yeah by the way I'll tell you a crazy story yesterday after Jason Jason took Nat and I out yesterday we
01:20:35
had an epic day it was incredible fun good times I was totally gassed skiing and so I took a nap and I fell asleep
01:20:42
for like 40 minutes and I woke up and I turned on the TV and I watched CNN for 20 minutes have you guys watched
01:20:50
CNN I can't watch more than a minute it is so bad it is for stupid all Network news yeah all Network new it's really
01:20:57
bad Jason like how biased it is and just how inaccurate it is if you were to watch it for an hour a day you would
01:21:05
have this totally lopsided view of what's going on in the world that is completely not accurate but here's my
01:21:10
here's my point there's nobody factchecking CNN just like there's nobody really factchecking Fox News but
01:21:14
my thought is these models and these AI tools should be the thing that presents objective news and then actually just
01:21:20
tells the truth I disagree I think what will happen is people will bias this the
01:21:24
the delivery to what they want to hear and you'll end up having something that's going to become more of an echo
01:21:29
chamber for you I want to hear more about how X Y or Z is so great I want to hear less about the stuff that I don't
01:21:34
agree with and you're going to curate your news to exactly what's happened with social media so I don't know if
01:21:39
that's necessarily how this will evolve CH because people don't like to hear what they don't believe or what they
01:21:43
don't already know you mean they don't want to hear the truth yeah they want to hear the truth that speaks to them their
01:21:49
version of the truth they want to be emotionally titilated you know it's about time might let you guys know that
01:21:54
we ran an experiment right now chth and freeberg I did this with Sax's permission but Sax's participation here
01:22:00
today was actually his AI this is an AI version of Sachs that we programmed AI Sachs can you reveal yourself and and
01:22:08
what training data went into this version of AI saxs can you can you give us something about your training data AI
01:22:14
saxs what training data was used if this is a bit you want to do you're going to
01:22:18
have to give me more of a heads up I mean I'm would be hilarious though if we actually trained like a sax model and we
01:22:26
had him come on and we tried to fool the audience can we just do a quick round table if you guys were to summarize your
01:22:32
in one word or two words your emotional condition for 2024 what would it be like
01:22:37
how are you feeling going in 2024 sex oh I feel fine but if I were to describe 24
01:22:42
in one word I would say the year is going to be turbulent turbulent but I feel I feel level that's not me but I
01:22:49
feel like the world's going to be very turbulent um jcal kind of exhilarated enthusiastic about 2024 it feels like a
01:22:59
lot of the cleanup work you know that we had to do in 2023 2022 like I feel like a lot of
01:23:07
that's we we've work through it and uh I'm finding a lot of optimistic so I guess I would be you know enthusiastic
01:23:14
and optimistic about 2024 I'm really excited to go to work and create I want to create some new things in 2024 I feel
01:23:21
very creative creative yeah yeah creative I would say cautious and pensive I think that just a lot of stuff
01:23:30
is changing underfoot and I'm personally not excited to make a bunch of decisions because I worry that those
01:23:40
decisions will have to be remade or unmade even nine or 10 months later so I I'm just kind of like
01:23:51
very pensive I'm like wow a lot of stuff can change will change even just like you know and then
01:23:58
freeberg knows this but like you know there's like some deals underfoot that like I think for the industry as a like
01:24:03
as a whole are just really meaningful things and so to do stuff right now freeberg makes me very anxious so right
01:24:10
I'm really cautious and and pensive right where are you at freeberg I'm excited I'm enjoying my new
01:24:18
job as CEO at ohol there's so much cool stuff happening I'm personally excited about it so this is the most excited
01:24:23
I've felt in many years in terms of my my work and then I would and I'm really excited to share what we've done next
01:24:29
year which or earlier this year which I'll do I'll do it on the show first obviously and then looking outside of
01:24:34
the world I'm just a little cautious I'm a little nervous I think there's a like
01:24:39
there's still a lot of Tinder boxes out there so I mean you guys know like we joke
01:24:44
about it but I do think there's these like little mouth traps that can get set off and then they set off all the other
01:24:49
mouse traps so there's a couple of those things out there that I'm a little nervous about but in the course of
01:24:53
history aren't there always conflicts in the world and like do you try to like put them on a spectrum of like there's
01:24:58
always going to be conflict there's always going to be there's never been this much debt in the world and that's
01:25:02
what makes me so nervous I think yeah no and I think they're related so actual conflict relates to the debt
01:25:09
load and that's why I'm so nervous because we've never been you can't keep your societal fabric together if you
01:25:16
have a lot of debt and you can't grow your economy those are two that's a simple fact and so leads naturally to
01:25:23
finding points of conflict with other nations and other places because you know you look for conflict elsewhere
01:25:30
there's a good chance that will the Republicans will force some momentary temporary budget cuts in this next yeah
01:25:38
coule shut down yeah a couple weeks 17 two week two weeks away yeah yeah it's pretty interesting under the terms of
01:25:44
the debt ciling increase that they agreed to last year they're supposed to all agree on a new budget and if they
01:25:51
don't then there's a 1% cut across the board on discretionary spending that goes into effect right if I were the
01:25:58
Republicans why agree to a deal you're never going to do better than a 1% cut in discretionary spending if you care
01:26:04
about austerity or just having any kind of Reason in our spending just take the 1% cut just don't agree to anything
01:26:12
agreed that's the most likely path right at this point I hope so and you know 1%
01:26:16
cut cut is a rounding ER but the um Washington Elite are going to shriek like crazy over that I mean they're
01:26:21
gonna yeah squeal over this minuscule cut like we were slashing their budgets right but that's all do it I think yeah
01:26:30
exactly they're cutting their fingernail and they're crying it's like just clip your toil to they're gonna act like we
01:26:36
cut off their arm when they got like a fingernail clip yeah it's nothing all right I gotta run all right everybody
01:26:42
what an amazing 2023 we had here's to a great 2024 you got your prediction show and we'll be back with more news and a
01:26:48
and a classic all-in episode next week have a great New Year and we wish you all the best in 2024 love you boys back
01:26:56
at you byebye let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to
01:27:08
the fans and they've just gone crazy with it queen [Music] of Besties are my dog take it your
01:27:26
driveway oh man myit will meet me at we should all just get a room and just have
01:27:31
one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release
01:27:36
somehow what we need to get [Music] mer I'm going all [Music] in