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welcome back to the all-in podcast everybody I'm your host Jason calacanis I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the
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projects I'm working on throughout the show to annoy my co-hosts and continue the grift but it is
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2025 and we are doing our bestie Awards it's going to be amazing today we've got
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so much to do today with us again for the second time a truly amazing bestie Gavin Baker from at trees Capital am I
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correct is it a treaty Capital you put management tradies management oh a tradi management
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okay and uh just call it House of treaties oh no let's not get him in trouble I P Gavin welcome back to the program let
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us know um just briefly what does a treaties do thanks for having me here Jason chamama and Dave a tradies we're a we're
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crossover firm we invest publicly and privately in consumer and Tech and we go from series a to Mega cap got it okay so
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you are a capital allocator you're place bets on technology on the most important
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new companies in the world we'll get into that and this is our prediction show we did our besti Awards how big is
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your firm Gavin oh well you just met the guy free brg you don't just ask him how
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big his firm is the audience wants to know is this guy a player like what's the deal roughly $4 billion okay all
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right so that's about a half an inch bigger than shth he's really worried now's not that he's the size queen or
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anything let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy
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[Music] with we're going to do a really great prediction show today and we're going to
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do some super predictions this year each bestie gets to make a super prediction or two during the show and we're going
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to take those super predictions shamal and we're going to put them on poly Market yes that's right if you don't
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know polyk Market there a prediction Market where people can place a wager a bet an investment in one or the other
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side and uh they're p is my image good it feels like it's blurry it's a little blurry that's the
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Avalanche coming and so I guess is that the Maga Avalanche what is this Avalanche is that people screaming
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across the border what's the metaphor here TR up is that the huge orgasm uh that you're about to lay down in 2025
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rocking my friend no no this is a shout out to my friend Ruben Oland who's the director of a bunch of really amazing
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movies um including the one behind me Force measure there you go all right we did an amazing partnership with poly
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Market freeberg you want to detail the partnership and some way you I think you helped work on it well we obviously have
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talked to Shane at Poly market for some time and we set up a a deal with them where we could put our own markets up on
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the on the site so we're going to talk about a couple of our predictions this year and then poly Market will post them
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up on on their site and people can can trade them obviously xus and we're really
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excited about it because it'll allow us to kind of track how we're doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing
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basis to create market so there'll be an all-in section on poly Market where you
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can kind of go in and see the all-in market it's going to be really cool awesome
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fantastic and so uh we just got we're all wrapping up our our uh ski trip here Nick I understand there was some footage
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some found footage from the bestie skiing is that true oh here we go look at this here I come
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down the mountain Gavin I want you to rate everybody skiing here I come looking great there comes looking good
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and then Here Comes somebody I think the technical term Joe Lonsdale does for that third person is a beep beep okay
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here we go and look at this technique coming down look at chamama chamat you really Advanced since
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last season look at him cutting those S turns Gavin what do you think listen to me I I made a very strategic decision to
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stop snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids it is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s no I
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mean if you've never done it but I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season I learned a couple
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things so it's been my thir there with the black bomber my third season it was great I am absolutely amazed at the
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progress you're making freeberg I'm amazed you made it onto the mountain you you were out there a number of days
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you're getting it done I needed new boot and I tore my MCL last season so I'm in
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it got really tweaked when I went out there but I'm good it was great I had a lot of fun I mean I four days yeah you
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ski four days okay I finished my 16th day yesterday but I took today off just to get prepared here yeah I got 16 I do
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the executive program Gavin I go off for an hour and a half to three hours Zip Zip Zip 10 runs and I'm done I only ski
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in the morning yeah that's the way to do same same same and and at 1215 have lunch relax get a little work done need
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a healthy healthy mix of AA ski and ski Gavin how would you compare yourself to what you just witnessed in that video
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your skiing ability where would you rank yourself clearly it's me chamath freeberg in that ranking where would you
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land in the ranking I well I would say i' make two observations first like I'm in the bottom percentile in terms of
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natural athleticism but I do have many many thousands of hours skiing great okay and I would just leave I would just
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leave that yes well then we'll be going out with you next year new best all right we got to get to it we're
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going to start off with politics gentlemen we got to keep this moving because there's so many predictions
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we're going to do our 2025 prediction for biggest political winner now last year well yeah I think we we got it kind
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of wrong freedberg you said independent third party in the US and we did see some of that with you know the breakout
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of Robert Kennedy maybe chamat you said independent Centrist we didn't get there
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with that one and I said Darkhorse presidential candidates maybe I get a quarter Point Credit there with wait
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hold on what do you mean we didn't get there independent centrists won the election for mean independent Centrist
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won the election really that's what you believe yeah okay I didn't think that it
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was the Independence but okay I think independent Centrist swung the election for Biden in
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2020 and then I think they swung the election for Trump in 2024 huh is that statistically correct you think freeberg
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you about that independent centrus did the election or Gavin what do you think I think it's right like I think a lot of
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there were a lot of people not just cists but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for
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Trump so I do think Trump won the cists I mean Trump trump won everything essentially yeah okay shabat
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who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025 my biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal
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conservatives I think that we are going to Ted a very important Concept in 2025 and I hope it works which is that
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of austerity and the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left
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after austerity is to cut entitlements and I think that in doing this we are going to figure out how much
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waste Fraud and Abuse exists in the United States federal government I think that that's going to spill over to a lot
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of State elections and I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring
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for a more restrained approach to spending will have their Day in 2025 okay fiscal conservatives from schoth
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freeberg who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025 I also took a a class-based approach I chose
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young candidates so Trump cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the Biden cabinet the
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average age is a little over 59 almost 60 years old and I do think that this marks the beginning of a new trend in
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the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger so I think that this is something we should expect
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as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025 we'll start to see younger new names start to pop up
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that deliver resident messages and aren't part of kind of the Old Guard of you know the Aging political class so I
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think that's a trend kind of underway now excellent young candidates so we got fiscal conservatives young candidates
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Gavin what do you got for the 2025 prediction for biggest political winner I would say Trump and centrism for my
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choice for 202's biggest political winner I went with something similar to you freedberg I said Gen X and the Elder
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Millennials if you look at the notable Gen X appointments you got Elon with do you got saxs obviously Marco Rubio my
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God it just goes down and then if you look at the Elder Millennials JD Vance V fake Tuli just a lot of young people and
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this is going to be absolutely fantastic I think because they're going to start thinking not just about themselves uh as
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the boomers are doing with Social Security taxes real estate all the different issues that they tend to pick
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for themselves they're going to start thinking about maybe their own kids and themselves so yeah it's obviously a sea
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change is underway so they have a folks for our predictions for political winner
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let's go with political loser here prediction for political loser we start off with You Gavin we'll do this a
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little round robin here we'll snake it around Gavin what do you think who'll be the biggest political loser of
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2025 I think Putin I think Putin is going to lose bigly um so if you are xiin ping you know xim Russia is a
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client state of China at this point and if you're xiin ping what is happening is
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now a disaster for you because Europe is starting to rearm and which is which will only accelerate this year
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that will allow America to take resources out of Europe and put them in uh Japan and South
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Korea and all over the Pacific and that makes it a lot harder for you to do what
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you most want to do which is reunify um China and Taiwan or invade Taiwan uh let's call it what it is and I
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just think X is going to begin decoupling from Putin if you're Trump you want to show that you're independent
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that you're not um inthrall to Putin in any way so I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think
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and I think he's going to get a very very uh a deal that's very very bad for Russia and Ukraine and you know you've
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lost half a million people and for what for what exactly yeah and it's a thousand over a thousand days into this
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nobody from the West H you know in the NATO or America no no soldiers have lost their lives from our side we've just
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given them weapons and so it's a humiliating defeat so far for Putin I agree with you freeberg your prediction
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for the biggest political loser of 2025 friberg's prediction I'm gonna predict the proar neocons who are going to go
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head-to-head with the JD Vance and Elon and others of the world and I think that
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they're going to lose and I think that there's going to be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this this
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neocon movement that's been very Pro conflict around the world and we've heard it in
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the speeches and in the commentary from JD and others and I think this is going to be the year it's all gonna kind of
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come to a head I think they're gonna end up on the losing side can iav can I take
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the other side just just a little bit so I think that's why you're here yeah yeah
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I think it's right in reality but I think you know Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton he said
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the guy was absolutely crazy but it was awesome having him in the room when you negoti deals people looked at this guy
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looking angry red in the face so excited to hit the nuclear button so excited to
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go to war and you ended up with much better deals so I think you're going to see probably a lot more bellicosity from
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the Trump Administration than anyone expects and that's just to get a good deal for you know between Russia and
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Ukraine and then it's to get China to kind of decouple from Russia so I think the um in reality I think you're right
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David but I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before you end up being
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right we already see it with Canada with NATO with Taiwan there's a lot you know
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we're gonna do this or this the tariffs obviously there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the
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negotiations that are hopefully going to get the US good deals we'll see shamat you have a prediction for your 2025
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biggest political loser predictions hard to do the uh biggest political loser of
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2025 is going to be progress iism so November of last year right after the election I flew to London and went up to
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Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union and very impressive my speech was a full-throated defense of
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Maga but it was mostly an explanation of Maga and it was sort of the antidote to Progressive instincts
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that had been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to basically come on gun and when you look at what's
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about to happen in 2025 in Canada Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pier
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POV in Germany afd looks like they will win in France if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election more than
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likely Marine Leen is going to win and then in the UK where you see this unfolding child rape scandal where
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allegedly upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by
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organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not prosecuted for Fears of stoking
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islamophobia as it turns out by the current prime minister Kier starmer and if all of that comes to pass
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in the UK I think you're going to see the labor government fall and I think you're going to see Nigel farage win so
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what do all of these countries look like like by the end of 25 it's very much a repudiation of this
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class-based identity politics and I think that has enormous Ripple effects all throughout the world and so I think
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the biggest political loser for 2025 I think stands to be progressivism quote unquote what they what we labeled
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progressivism I I took something very similar I said the racist vocal minority of each one of these parties and there's
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a little bit of this on either side you have Dei on one side and then you just have outright racism on the other side
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and it's probably 5% of Maga and 5% of the left and just to recap last year's political predictions for 2024 our
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predictions for political loser was I said Netanyahu freeberg you said Ukraine and shath you said the coke family the
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GOP nailed that one I nailed that one freeberg any thoughts on last year's or anything on the Republican side more
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than the Koch family do you think I mean explain for the audience who maybe aren't as into it well I think
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essentially 2024 was the end of the Republican party as we knew it and I think what stands in its place is what I
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would call the Maga reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of republicanism which
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is to say that these folks aren't necessarily Republicans these folks are believers of the Maga philosophy they're
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just using the Republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected and in that overturning of the
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status quo what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few Decades of political
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Machinery that essentially decided candidates that it decided agenda that it decided policy and that was the coch
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family and they spent an enormous amount of money to get that which they stood up frankly
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literally the day after citizens united happened in the Supreme Court and I think that in that
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lens those billions of dollars of investment have essentially gone to zero because I don't think it means much of
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anything anymore and if you look at the new class of donors who will decide quote unquote Republican policy
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it's going to be the the muriam Adon of the world the Elon musks of the world and that's very different than how I
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think the cokes used to decide things do you think there's too much money in politics now Gavin do I think there's
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too much money in politics now um it's it's a good question you know I might feel very very
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differently if I didn't agree so profoundly with with the largest owner in this political cycle
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yeah I I would say the reality is is like the the the money as long as the money raised on each side is roughly
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equivalent I don't think it really matters that would that would be my take you just want some equivalence that's
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all all right let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner freeberg why don't you start us off
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biggest business winner for 2025 what's your prediction so I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection
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point that is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous Hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year of kind of compute
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build out and the roll out of AI systems in software I think 2025 will be the year of the
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robot you know there's a company I we just placed an order today actually out of China called
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unry Gavin have you looked at this company yeah it's pretty wild actually it's an incredible business incredible
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product so their go2 robot is $1600 has an API here it is you can run a payload on it it's got lar on it it's got kind
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of intelligence guidance systems on it this is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at
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earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field
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Soldier it's an autonomous field Soldier but really you can use it in scientific
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applications we're looking at using them in our uh on our on our test Farms where
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it can wander the farm and take images and Report data back to us and it's such a low cost that like less than $3,000
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you can do some incredible things with it so this business just raised a couple hundred million dollar last month
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from Mostly Chinese investors it's a Chinese company and I think that there's going to be you know other similar type
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businesses you know it kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than
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you could have ever imagined I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and
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autonomous systems and be like oh my God I can't believe this is here um so this
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could be the year such a great strong choice for the biggest winner and I think the quote
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you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once that's how these technology changes and
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man I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security sorry Nick pull
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up the you guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it Nick find the video of the go2 with the wheels on it U managing
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terrain and everyone thought this was a BS video that it was like CGI wasn't real it was AI generated but like this
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thing is just incredible here it is this is a real video of this thing yeah and it could learn from an llm too right
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like a large language model could teach it how to do so yeah Gavin is this real like what's your abely real yeah yeah I
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want to get the G1 which is their humanoid robot yeah so pull up the humanoid it's really cool yeah a little
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more expensive yeah yeah I mean $166,000 is the cost of a used Prius let's be honest that's in spitting distance of
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being affordable mid look at this thing 16 Grand and this thing you can you know
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you can basically command it to do things for you in your house or in your factory or place oh come on I knew you
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would do it oh come on I was going to say maybe we could get a poker dealer maybe B you know I wonder if this thing
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could deal do you guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all-in Holiday Spectacular One so my my brother
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made an observation he said as soon as that robot came out it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it he's like humans
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have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot
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it's like ration of behavior yeah like just it's like oh here's something I dominate
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here's something I can tell we're so threatened by it we want to make sure that we're the top of the species here
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and it doesn't feel like it's going to be for much longer I mean these things will kick our ass pretty soon anyway
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these things are amazing I think this is going to be the year of the robots that's my pred year of the robots is
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your prediction I love it uh Gavin what do you got profoundly agree I think you're the robots um inclusive of FSD
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you know I think FSD works today and it's gonna it's it's going to cross into mainstream adoption where I already
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notice particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night I really really prefer to have a Tesla just sometimes
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you get an Uber driver who's who's tired and I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running and then
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obviously using it for yourself is amazing but I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating
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rate I think the in a lot of ways what I'd say broadly is I think for a while it's
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going to be big businesses are winners big businesses that use Ai thoughtfully and the reason is is that
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with what is happening what what 03 showed us open ai's new model the combination of reasoning and test time
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compute like I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let let an AI think for 6
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weeks about the most important question for your business that's going to be a profound
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Advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that and by the way we are the other like inference compute is
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going to be the the kind of derivative when of that we're going to run out of gpus accelerators
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compute in 20125 the same way we did in 23 okay so you're also long Nvidia and chip makers grock Etc because we're
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finding new uses for all that compute absolutely okay very good chth do you have a prediction for your biggest
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business winner of 2025 sir I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable
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coins oh I'll make two points in 2024 two critical things happened the first is that
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stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for
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wholesale useful functions in running businesses and there's an image here that starts to show that so independent
00:23:49
of crypto volatility what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the
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right that's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 24 the second and this data is still just
00:24:01
trickling in but it's an incredible stat stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter
00:24:10
of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion do of transaction volume if
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you compare that to Visa over the same period it was more than double visas transaction
00:24:32
volume so I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return similar to
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how last year I thought that the big Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I would say that the big Trend in 25 is
00:24:49
stable coin usage I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of visa and MasterCard I think you're going to see
00:24:58
an inal number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails I think when Donald Trump becomes
00:25:07
president I think you're going to see him go after incredibly High credit card transactions and
00:25:14
costs you're already seeing cacks in consumer credit anyways because of these high aprs all of this stuff is going to
00:25:22
come to a head in 2025 I think and I think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25 I think it's
00:25:31
just going to be an enormous Market great choice should they be regulated chamath we saw at some of these
00:25:37
Congressional hearings tether was kind of dragged for being the primary transfer and and monetary tool
00:25:45
for terrorism for getting around sanctions and for human trafficking should it be regulated and how I I don't
00:25:53
think I'm qualified to say how it should but I think the point is that there are
00:25:57
these IM logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions and so I think the
00:26:05
knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence
00:26:11
layer I think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of
00:26:18
drag yes out of the global economy massive gain how valuable would that be and I think it would be valuable just in
00:26:27
the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars so the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point
00:26:34
is somewhat quizzical to me so I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound Gavin
00:26:42
let me ask you a hard question there as well should the United States government
00:26:45
give up the let's face it you know they they have a bit of a strangle hold they've got a bit of a monopoly on US
00:26:53
Dollars these things are a competitor and we were sitting here on this program over the last couple years talking about
00:26:59
the bricks and them starting their own currency aren't these in some way similar to that and they would take
00:27:05
people off the USD standard how do you look at that because that is the criticism that some people in power have
00:27:12
put forward I do I do think that they might be very good for the world but I do think they would be very
00:27:19
bad for America if they replaced if some constellation of stable coins became the
00:27:25
new Reserve currency it is such a an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly
00:27:35
that just that means you control you have you you control the real size of your debt at all times oh
00:27:44
wow we have a big big debt I mean this is a little bit like what we just did let's just have let's just let inflation
00:27:50
run hot and oh wow that debts a lot smaller than it was effectively so I think it would be a
00:27:56
big mistake freeberg you have any thoughts on it we we've been talking about currency here and a whole bunch
00:28:01
over the last couple years any thoughts on stable coins and and just the uh Monopoly we have on it I I don't know
00:28:09
enough about stable coins well that'll be one of our big topics for the year and we should uh definitely invite jir
00:28:14
from USD on or usdc usdc Geremy air I mentioned by the way that I had this small little product that
00:28:28
I exposed to the world which is just our research and we sit it on top of substack again the tools aren't very
00:28:33
good and we use stripe and Jeremy reached out to me and he's like I'll just rebuild all of your payment rails
00:28:41
on using US dollar stable coins and it's a no-brainer because I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in
00:28:49
transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more and so I you're
00:28:56
paying 10% to suback in the 3% yeah if it's obvious for me it's obvious for everybody else all right my biggest
00:29:02
business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google I think this is going to be the year of AI and Robotics
00:29:10
obviously but I am just absolutely amazed at the comeback that Google has made with AI and I'm absolutely in awe
00:29:17
of what Elon did with Colossus if those of you don't know Jensen Wong Michael D they all obviously participated in
00:29:24
building out xai and they were shocked they couldn't believe that they stood up a 100,000 gpus in under 45 days was it
00:29:34
Gavin something in that neighborhood it was a tremendous effort and uh you that's not Tesla right is that Tesla
00:29:41
well Elon Tesla xai and Google that cohort who are investing heavily in AI those two specifically those two three
00:29:49
names I think are going to be the biggest winners next year they're going to come out with some things that people
00:29:53
didn't anticipate I don't I don't think people are anticipating what Google Google is going to come out with because
00:29:59
Gemini deep research I keep telling people this and I'm using the app is so impressive drop what you're doing right
00:30:06
now pause the podcast download Gemini and just start playing with deep resarch on your desktop pay the 20 bucks for it
00:30:12
it is mindblowing it blows anything else in the market out of the water period full stop it is a step function
00:30:21
higher all right I'll just leave it at that Jason shouldn't you uh just go with the vibe of the podcast shouldn't you
00:30:26
explain what it is what sorry okay so what it does is good call good call if you wanted to create a model let's say
00:30:34
and I did this where I said hey make me a model based upon what it would take to
00:30:38
replace all the cars and trips in the United States with full self-driving cars what would that cost to do and if
00:30:46
you ask that to chat GPT or grock or you know Claude it's going to give you a decent answer what deep research does is
00:30:54
it goes and it figures out what the subcomponents of each of those questions would be and then it fires off multiple
00:30:59
threads and then it searches the web in real time which Google is extremely good
00:31:03
at and then it summarizes it gives citations and it produces a report that looks like something that Gartner group
00:31:09
McKenzie Boston Consulting Group would have spent I don't know 30 days on Gavin and a million dollars a half million
00:31:16
dollars it's Bonkers how good this is but the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary that's why chat
00:31:23
GPT released something similar that's 200 bucks a month the 01 Pro I think they call it
00:31:28
and then this one is like 20 bucks from Gemini anyway given what Google has access to YouTube your G drive your
00:31:36
Google Docs Etc your Gmail it's going to do things that you wouldn't anticipate like if you were asking this question it
00:31:43
might look in your Gmail for possibilities to answer those questions or YouTube videos of channels you
00:31:49
subscribe to so this is going to I think knock people's socks off and solve problems that people didn't know they
00:31:55
had is that a pretty good explanation Gavin yeah think it's great for last year our predictions for business winner
00:32:02
chamat said bootstrapped or Endor profitable startups I think that's a really great pick and that came to pass
00:32:06
we're seeing some of those go public and raise money at higher valuations or not
00:32:10
go out of business freeberg you said Commodities businesses I'm not sure how that did do you know did you Che pretty
00:32:16
flat yeah we didn't have a lot of the inflationary pressures that I think were underlying that pie so got it it ended
00:32:24
up being I'd say a loser relative to other indices you could bought this year I said training data owners like Reddit
00:32:31
New York Times Google Etc Reddit stock up 24% in 2024 and they launched their own Reddit answer call yeah I think I
00:32:38
got that one uh New York Times stock is up as well and they uh fired off that lawsuit with open AI all right now we're
00:32:44
going to move on to the 2025 biggest business loser predictions in 2024 shamat said pro sports teams because
00:32:52
they hit Peak valuations that's looking like a pretty good prediction free perg you said vertical SAS companies because
00:32:57
of AI disrupt that's another one that seems like a great prediction I said smartphone
00:33:01
manufacturers Apple stock was up 30% in 2024 but I think we've all seen that these uh smartphones aren't advancing
00:33:09
and people are taking their times the sales of those are down services are up I would take the other side on pro
00:33:13
sports teams it feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to
00:33:20
start buying pro sports teams okay that ultimately and ultimately Capital markets have way more resources than
00:33:26
kind of the wealthy individual ual who've done it for to date so I just think it's the amount of money that can
00:33:34
go after pro sports teams is about uh you know 10x 100x no I think I think you're totally right the the reason I
00:33:41
said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time and the NBA was the canary and the coal mine that there
00:33:47
was a viewership problem in professional sports and specifically in the NBA the game has devolved into essentially
00:33:55
rebounds and dunks or three point ERS and the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less
00:34:02
interesting to watch at the same time because of the the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the
00:34:09
discounted value of these sports franchises the TV deal was so enormous that it creates
00:34:17
no reliable rivalries anymore because people will hop scotch teams almost every year because the compensation that
00:34:25
they can get is just so obscene quite honestly and I think what happens is sports will
00:34:31
have a decent run until the next TV deals get done and I think if you for example take Pharma ads outside of TV so
00:34:40
like that pool shrinks if you have less viewership and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because
00:34:49
there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again then the dollar pool that the
00:34:55
television networks and the Stream are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down and the group that will be
00:35:03
the most price sensitive are exactly who you said Gavin meaning the non trophy buyer so like you know when I bought
00:35:10
into the Warriors I bought it purely as a trophy asset and I was pricing sensitive but I agree with you that now
00:35:15
that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises those folks are all DCFS those folks are all
00:35:22
Excel models I don't think that they're buying things for emotion I don't think they've grown up thinking I want to own
00:35:28
this thing not using institutional LP dollars so I just think that's why that's why I said that in 24 so I just
00:35:34
on behal of Phil Huth and I we appreciate you made that vanity investment for the number of times we
00:35:39
got to sit in your court side seats yeah because I never we made with NBA players
00:35:44
I never went to the games I should have gone to more games I went to your games and almost got thrown out of your seats
00:35:49
I got a red card one time it's true is it true you did oh you don't I got a I got a call I got a call I think it was
00:35:56
from the Warriors or it's from from the NBA something to the effect of chouth this guy that was sitting in your seats
00:36:01
was almost kicked out and I said excuse me because I knew that it was Game In fairness and and he was like jawboning
00:36:08
our own players I was getting into it with bogot and with David Lee because I told it was unbelievable I told Steve
00:36:16
cerr listen you're up 30 on my Knicks sit these guys down this is Bush League what if Steph Curry gets hurt out there
00:36:21
like and uh you know Boga told me to shut up Andre boa told him to basically go pound in a basically did it was the
00:36:29
funniest thing ever Gavin this is what happens when you get's one of our friends he's one of our good friends so
00:36:34
that's why it's so funny but they can't they come over freeberg and they tap you
00:36:38
on the shoulder I'm with my wife she's mortified and the guy hands you a card and the card says you've been warned one
00:36:47
time and one time only about abusive you know uh Behavior if we have to warn you
00:36:53
one more time you will be escorted out rid so I look at the guy and I say but he goes read the card I read the card I
00:37:00
say he goes giv me a thumbs up that was it I never that was it you're not supposed to then three years later I'm
00:37:07
sitting in the same seats I'm interacting with Draymond during the finals games and everybody's hokey doie
00:37:12
with it when you say interacting what do you mean when you say interacting wa hold on G Gavin wanted to make a point
00:37:17
about what I no I just want to just just come back to chath because for sure these private Equity guys there DCFS the
00:37:22
NBA has been terribly managed I think even LeBron said they have a big problem you know and I'd separate the NBA is the
00:37:30
worst managed NFL is probably the best managed but the one kind of CounterPoint I would say on the TV rights is Google
00:37:36
bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely happy with it Amazon and Netflix also bought you
00:37:44
know both bought NFL games and are really happy with them and so I just think those three companies it doesn't
00:37:50
really matter to them if Pharma ads go away in 18 months you're going to be able to dynamically create an ad
00:37:58
for each individual person and show it to them and if you're a high value user with a you know that Google knows that
00:38:04
you're about to book a vacation you know they'll dynamically generate you know whatever you know Hotel destinations you
00:38:10
want and show click here so I just think Sports as long as they command the eyeballs that they do and I for sure if
00:38:19
the NBA doesn't fix it the value of those franchises will start to decline but um just the fact that all of the
00:38:28
biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought they're going to buy them all
00:38:34
every sport understand Gavin maybe maybe you're closer to this but why wouldn't Apple Amazon or Google just back up the
00:38:42
truck to the NBA and say well take the whole thing and then anybody who's got an iPhone gets the NBA for free and then
00:38:49
everybody else has to pay and they figure it out in the back and they lose a you know 5 billion they make two
00:38:54
billion who cares it's a rounding error for Apple I agree and they you know I mean they all all
00:39:00
except for Apple really and apple they have I think an MLs deal but they all kind of stuck their toe in the water and
00:39:06
I think they feel like wow the water's warm let's dive in um okay yeah and the New Deal is an 11year deal for the NBA
00:39:14
so these things don't come up that often but we'll see over time maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies
00:39:20
and inherit them okay biggest business loser for 2025 what's your prediction Gavin Baker government service providers
00:39:29
you do not you do not want to have the United States government at any level is over 35% of your
00:39:35
Revenue good choice yes obviously in the age of Doge they might not be spending wildly and they might actually look at
00:39:41
the bill they might check the bill crazy thought crazy thought yeah crazy thought
00:39:46
to actually check the bill you never know chth who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of
00:39:52
2025 well this is a a little bit precarious but I don't know what the percentage
00:40:03
draw down from here will be but I think when we look back the absolute dollar draw down of the mag s
00:40:14
will be in the trillions of dollars okay and the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals
00:40:22
of these companies but I am a little bit worried and I tweeted this a few days ago about
00:40:28
just the general concentration of the top seven 8 nine 10 companies in the indices I think it's approaching
00:40:39
40% and I think that when you look at these historic concentrations they've generally
00:40:45
foreshadowed a big draw down okay and unfortunately I don't see how you can sort of you know inoculate yourself
00:40:55
from that risk so independent of the quality of these companies because I think these companies are exceptional
00:41:01
businesses I do think you've just had too much concentration and I think it it is a setup to retrade and give back and
00:41:09
in that it could even be 10% but 10% in the mag 8 will be a couple trillion bucks and so on absolute would be a lot
00:41:18
yeah an absolute dollar a lot okay freeberg who do you predict you predict Max 7 government service providers for
00:41:23
You Gavin Free who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 202 I'm sort of on the same vein as Gavin I went
00:41:29
with the kind of old defense and Aerospace providers Boeing loed Martin Ron defense 1.0 driven by kind of China
00:41:38
dominance driven by us defense budgets that I think are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and
00:41:43
Roid driven rationalization and pricing and spend so the Palante and Andals obviously the world will benefit and I
00:41:50
also just think like there's a lot of failure at scale with these businesses they've gotten too clunky and too
00:41:55
bureaucratic as we've seen with boing from their space program failure in 2024 uh to the challenges with their their
00:42:04
airplane business but I think that this government contracting business across the board is going to be deeply
00:42:08
challenged this year with all the new blood so the Cost Plus are going to suffer is what you're saying and the
00:42:14
andrs will Thrive would you guys add just a question would you guys add the traditional Consulting companies then to
00:42:22
the mix as well like if you that's a good point too that's a great one yeah we think what we talked
00:42:27
like the Y Pros the tatas the hcls the accent cogn the Emy all these folks in are in real trouble if that if that also
00:42:37
happens that's right yeah you the efficiency that they'll gain will also be felt by their customers and their
00:42:43
customers might not hire them when you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and informing the
00:42:48
federal government on how to run their their operations I'm pretty sure that some of these service providers are
00:42:53
going to get washed out so it's a good idea the thing to keep in mind is like plus is a fancier way of saying time and
00:43:00
materials and time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor Arbitrage and I think that all of that
00:43:08
stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025 because if you are buying you know $800 waste baskets and you know $9,000
00:43:18
uh umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other crazy stuff that's in the system and all of
00:43:25
that gets washed out then a lot of these folks in their business models will will
00:43:29
get put under severe stress the alignments you know you show me an incentive I'll show you the outcome the
00:43:34
alignment of Cost Plus is to just keep being inefficient and and waste and and these defense contractors are taking 60
00:43:42
70 80% off the price of each piece of Munitions or vehicle yeah Cost Plus is terrible no
00:43:51
just cost is terrible that's all all right for my biggest business loser prediction I had to go through a lot of
00:43:57
the uh people I've uh criticized on in started fights with over the past year commercial real estate came to mind
00:44:04
because these leases are going to keep coming up and I think like they kick the can down the road a little bit so I
00:44:09
started there then I looked at micro strategies and that made no sense to me that they were trading at two three four
00:44:15
times the book value of their Bitcoin and I think that's not sustainable I looked at truth social which is like
00:44:22
doing four or5 million in revenue and is valued at 7 billion that makes Absol no
00:44:27
logical sense but I think the one that is the most overpriced of of all of this and I think is going to
00:44:34
see their Peak valuation is open AI I think the headwinds for open AI are being absolutely
00:44:44
underappreciated like I said before in my previous one uh my previous prediction Google is kicking ass xai is
00:44:50
just getting started and building out so much big Iron Microsoft was basically on
00:44:57
another podcast almost like laughing at open a for selling them the source code and
00:45:03
that they didn't even need open AI anymore because they had it all they don't need them and they own all the Big
00:45:07
Iron I think open ai's valuation made no sense I don't think they're going to be
00:45:12
able to keep charging the prices are charging and I think AWS Apple Google xai this cohort are going
00:45:21
to really take that $57 billion valuation and make it the peak valuation of the company and I do I do think that
00:45:31
there's a nonzero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring $157 billion dollar in
00:45:41
value from a nonprofit into a for-profit I think that whole thing could blow up is that your super prediction is open AI
00:45:47
will not be able to convert from nonprofit to for-profit in 2025 I think that that's a small piece of it but
00:45:52
that's a really interesting super prediction insert poly Market graphic here super prediction will open AI convert is
00:46:01
that's a good in 2025 yeah by the way you know they're projecting I think in the the the leaked financials 12 billion
00:46:08
Revenue next year jkl so unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about
00:46:11
this is a real business with real Revenue real scale real growth real technology it's it's a little bit
00:46:17
distinct from kind of being a meme stock or being a exactly that's why I'm picking it because I think it's easy to
00:46:22
pick a meme stock it's harder to pick a real company but I do think think that that Revenue which you know a lot of it
00:46:29
is consumer and a lot of it is developers the developers I know all want to do open source they don't want
00:46:35
to have to be beholden to open Ai and Sam mman they would much rather and they're already setting their queries
00:46:42
across multiple different sacks and trying different ones I don't think there's any loyalty to open AI or gemini
00:46:48
or any of these Services I think they'll just go with eventually open source in many cases so anyway that's my thought
00:46:53
on open AI 2025 biggest business deal what do you got shth what's your biggest business deal for 2025 prediction shth
00:47:01
what do you got you said starlink to go public last year that one yeah totally whiffed on
00:47:07
that one I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional Auto
00:47:14
oems and I think that the the deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda Nissan I think is a bit
00:47:24
of a signal to what the industry has to do which is to go through a massive wave
00:47:29
of consolidation I think that Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of
00:47:37
their vehicles and the quality of their software and the qu quality of their autonomy with FSD so I suspect that
00:47:46
after a couple of more meaningful product releases it's just going to trigger the realization by the
00:47:56
public capital markets that these Auto oems are uninvestable and I think the result of that will be a wave of Auto
00:48:05
Mega mergers and for people who don't know Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to
00:48:11
merge and Mitsubishi is involved because they're part of I think Nissan's Alliance this would obviously get rid of
00:48:17
all of the redundancy I think this is touch like the European oems are in real trouble
00:48:24
you know what does Volkswagen do not clear what does stantis do it's not clear these are all businesses that are
00:48:30
effectively melting icebergs and so you know typically melting Iceberg businesses when they get put under
00:48:38
pressure from Smart investors like Gavin and and and is ilk they're forced to merge short gav Gavin you got a spread
00:48:46
trade are you short these names um I I would rather not talk about specific positions I would just say I agree 100%
00:48:53
with chamath I think there you go they're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make
00:48:59
competitive products anymore if there's not massive protectionism and we're seeing signs that they'll be caught
00:49:06
between Tesla and the Chinese oems and I think the only way that this doesn't H chat's the only risk to chat's
00:49:14
prediction is just government intervention because they's such big employers and you know often seen as
00:49:20
national champions but absent really significant government support they all in deep
00:49:28
trouble okay well done freeberg last year you said there'd be some Blockbuster deals for right holders
00:49:35
licensing data for AI training and Reddit did in fact sign two of those so uh a great prediction from you for last
00:49:41
year on biggest business deal what do you got this year see if you can go two for two was it just
00:49:46
Reddit I should probably look it up what you I'll just follow on my year of the robot theme I do think that there's
00:49:54
going to be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute buildout I think we're going
00:50:00
to see massive funding deals for Hardware based Manufacturing buildout in the United States and I think that those
00:50:07
deals may take the form of kind of traditional Equity from private markets or they may have some component that
00:50:15
includes government support to to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate onshore manufacturing we're not going to
00:50:22
go in the US to making stuff that is like last century I think we're going to need to move manufacturing to the next
00:50:29
decade Next Century of of production and I think that's going to mean making some
00:50:34
of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are going to become really critical for us particularly with China
00:50:40
doing this massive ramp up and buildout for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles so I think we're
00:50:47
going to need to kind of onshore a lot of this and so that'll be a big amount of capital that's going to move and so
00:50:52
you'll see a bunch of these big Blockbuster deals for Hardware buildout in the US Gavin what do you think to be
00:50:56
the biggest business deal in 2025 I think the biggest business deal is that they're going to be deals I think
00:51:03
there's you're going to see a Title Wave of m&a after four years of not being able to get anything done I think
00:51:09
there's an enormous amount of pinup demand so kind of Point number one point number two something will happen with
00:51:15
Intel and that will be big and hopefully it's good for America and then I do think you will see a lot of
00:51:23
these Frontier AI Labs that are independent be quiet you know I thought your points were well
00:51:29
taken Jason about you know everything that uh you know Google is bringing to Bear an ex xai owns their own compute
00:51:37
and you guys can choose whichever one of these three you like but the ultimate AI
00:51:41
winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure cost the lowest cost of compute and definitionally you
00:51:49
can't be the lowcost provider if you're ring your compute from someone else because of markups yeah because there's
00:51:55
a markup if you're buy your compute from Azure or AWS or Google you were at a disadvantage
00:52:02
relative to their internal Services over time so the full stack wins great prediction for
00:52:10
me last year my prediction was that bite dance would go public or Tik Tok would get divested or some version of this we
00:52:18
are but 18 days away from figuring out if the Supreme Court will do just that my prediction for this year I was
00:52:24
looking at all the media companies gentlemen there were so many possibilities there Warner Brothers we
00:52:29
talked about Apple and Disney you know couple years ago but I think the age of autonomy is here and I think there is
00:52:37
going to be some Partnerships that will happen between Amazon door- Uber Tesla weo and that cohort and I would not be
00:52:47
surprised to see Tesla could buy Uber right now for but 10% of its market cap and weo could spin out and partner with
00:52:55
Uber Amazon could buy door Dash fairly easily and with the wrath of KH being over the wrath of lenina con being over
00:53:03
Gavin it is possible that Mega deals like these could go through and if a couple of Mega deals go through like
00:53:10
this whoever uh you know teams up here could win autonomy delivery food delivery and e-commerce this is a
00:53:18
ginormous space and I think listen I don't I haven't spoken to uh obviously my friend about it but Tesla buying door
00:53:26
Dash and Uber or Amazon buying door Dash and Uber could be the greatest service ever created if you wanted to build a
00:53:33
super app the only thing I would add and I think dovet tales with what you said and and um friberg's kind of year of the
00:53:40
robot is autonomous drones there's a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in fantastic yeah but
00:53:48
autonomous drones they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to Suburban America and then I think
00:53:57
over time it will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well so I just think that that might be
00:54:04
a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services well and Amazon in I believe it's Texas is actually
00:54:11
doing these now they've got 60,000 SKS is my understanding already being delivered and they just drop it in your
00:54:17
backyard and it's there in 45 minutes I do this like two weeks ago I um you know
00:54:22
Matan in China's got this and they they F have food delivery happening with these Dr
00:54:26
by the way um just kind of dovetailing off of this I think the other big deal potential in 2025 just to be very
00:54:32
specific is a deal with weo you know weo launched n SF in August 2023 in kind of
00:54:38
an open market way Uber and Lyft were 66 and 34% market share at the time and in
00:54:43
15 months in November of 2024 weo is now a 22% market share of rides in SF which
00:54:51
is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down to 55 so weo Aid in both Uber and lifts
00:54:56
market share by on the order of 12 points um in just 15 months and now they're launching in LA in Austin all
00:55:03
over the country they're already in Phoenix so I think you could see a massive and by the way you know they
00:55:08
also just moved the the hardware platform over to a new d new device that supposedly going to bring the capex
00:55:13
significantly down for new launches so you'll see much improved roic metrics which means that there's a much kind of
00:55:20
more efficient way to use Capital to scale so the system works it is scaling they are opening up a new markets you
00:55:27
could see something happen with weo this year that could either be something like
00:55:30
a massive financing an IPO or a merger or acquisition with one of the big right sharing companies I don't know if that
00:55:36
makes as much strategic sense as I've thought about it a little bit but I do think you could see a big deal with wayo
00:55:40
this company is if you guys have not been in AO uh I think we all talked about this but it's an incredible
00:55:46
experience and everyone I know of every age group that has been for a ride in wh
00:55:51
comes out of it saying that is the future this is going to absolutely dominate how I'm going to get around I'm
00:55:56
most people say it's slow right now and monotonous and they don't like it but you know because it does take weird
00:56:02
routes but that'll be fixed over time obviously tot and uh just in case anybody thinks I'm talking my book here
00:56:07
I have exposure to all these almost all these companies in a in a significant way because I believe in the entire
00:56:12
space one and a half% of rides in the US and globally it's less than 1% are done
00:56:18
by ride sharing the Tam is going to go to 20% in a very short period of time and it's going to be across the board
00:56:25
there's going to be a lot of winners here and to my favorite Uber obviously they have deals with eight people and
00:56:31
it's a global market byd produces cars for half the price of any other car manufacturer and they have full self
00:56:38
driving and it's pretty darn good from what I understand so this is going to be a global competition and that means if
00:56:44
you want to win that Global competition something like uber and doores weo Amazon byd you're going to see some
00:56:51
interesting Partnerships happen very quickly I believe because there's so much at stake all right and final
00:56:56
thoughts on biggest business deals I think I maybe have a good one here consolidation in the transportation
00:57:01
space okay moving on to 2025 most contrarian belief last year Enterprise value of
00:57:10
open AI goes down from chth it roughly doubled but I just picked it as my prediction so I think we're s we're
00:57:17
sympatico on uh what we think long term freeberg you said increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the
00:57:23
first time since World War II thank the Lord that that didn't happen again this is contrarian beliefs people are going
00:57:29
out there I I didn't predict it was gonna happen I just said the probability went up it was it's a tough it's a tough
00:57:33
thing to call well this is most contrarian belief I think it's fine Dr Doom strikes again it's all good I
00:57:39
picked Apple would become the player in Ai and they did launch Apple intelligence but it sucks I mean it
00:57:46
sucks it's terrible I just bought the Google pixel fold n and the Gemini works perfectly it does
00:57:56
everything that Ser is supposed to do if you say please play this song If you say
00:58:00
please download this app if you say add this to my calendar it does it and it does it in one or tenth the amount of
00:58:08
time that Apple takes and apple gets it wrong every time it's a piece of garbage
00:58:15
it's a disgrace disad apple apple intelligence is even worse than co-pilot which is saying something Jason would
00:58:23
you like to announce you B the domain dad.com I own it I'm not selling it right now it it
00:58:32
redirects to J Paul Gavin Gavin do you have any idea what word he's even saying when he says that disad disad it's disg
00:58:42
graad is what people used to say in Brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful it is a Italian American slang how do
00:58:52
you spell it you don't even know you own the domain you don't even know d i s g r a z
00:58:59
i a d disg graad yes and if you type in disg graad it goes to Jake Paul I bought it when I
00:59:06
was watching the Tyson fight it was so disgraceful I was saying to my brother Josh the black bomber this is and he
00:59:14
just said disg graad and I just said I wonder if that's available as a domain I'm redirecting disg graad right now Tim
00:59:21
Cook to Apple intelligence the website do you guys think Tyson through that that it was part of the deal
00:59:29
th% I would love I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or or whatever a redo a rematch a
00:59:37
rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what and the loser gets zero yes
00:59:44
and the loser gets zero this is a good use of the Kingdom's money the people want to know we will all fly out there
00:59:51
and do an Allin episode from you guys see this did you see this thing where is it is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor
00:59:57
McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is gonna get $250 million what yeah it's like a
01:00:07
whole stunt I I think it's boxing and it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the
01:00:14
country but it's a quarter of a billion dollars to Conor MC how do we get in on this grift freeberg versus Baker poly
01:00:22
hoaa versus kakanis oh my gosh we need to get our own celebrity box and who would we do come on keep going I got to
01:00:29
drive home let's go come on too much fun this episode chth what's your most contrarian belief prediction for 2025
01:00:36
we're going out on a limb here this is going out in a limb folks don't judge us the the spicier to take the better here
01:00:42
this is where you can go freestyle I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major
01:00:48
Mainline Banks a banking crisis wow there is a it's a small chance it happens but that's a contrar belief okay
01:00:57
why Jam why Black Swan well I think if I had to kind of build the the case for this it would be along the following
01:01:07
lines if you added up the total indebtedness of pax America which is US Government
01:01:16
debt plus corporates plus Mortgage Debt and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around call it
01:01:30
5% what you quickly realize is on a dollar basis that because the amount of debt
01:01:38
that we have has just massively exploded that 5% rates today on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually equivalent
01:01:50
to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago because we only had a fraction of that debt on a
01:01:57
dollar basis and so the pain that you feel at 5 or 6% can very quickly Ripple through the economy the way that it did
01:02:06
when rates 25 or 30 years ago were 10% and so I think that when people look at rates they forget the actual total
01:02:16
dollar impact because when somebody or collectively when we have to come up with three or four trillion dollars how
01:02:22
do you do that and so I think that there is a non-trivial risk I think it's small this
01:02:28
is why it's contrarian but I think it's a it's a risk where if you have a marketto market
01:02:35
problem if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual
01:02:43
consumers what I think that happens more than anything else is that it triggers a
01:02:49
reserve issue and I think that the reserve issue in one of these Mainline Banks I have two that I think are more obvious
01:02:59
than others but I don't want to name them okay fair enough I love this contrarian take this is great I think
01:03:05
that there's a there's a small but reasonable chance that that happens I love it it's a great great contrarian
01:03:10
take small chance but big impact Gavin what do you got well first Gemini deep research to um just ask it to look at
01:03:19
the total you know Pax Americana debt outstanding apply the current Market interest rate to it and then look at
01:03:28
that you know interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time
01:03:33
that would be a cool chart that would be interesting I don't I I don't I don't disagree with
01:03:41
chamath you know any anything is possible and um you know there there could for sure be be a
01:03:49
problem at a big bank I don't know that I would say it's likely but you anything is possible my
01:03:55
most cont belief so I think that America over the next at some point over the next four years will print at least one
01:04:02
year of greater than 5% GDP growth real GDP growth I think productivity is going
01:04:09
to go vertical because of AI and deregulation and I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s and
01:04:18
it doesn't sound like a big difference you know five or 6% versus 2 or 3% but it is a massive difference
01:04:25
you know at five or 6% you know the economy is doubling you'll call it every 12 years
01:04:32
roughly versus 24 years at 3% I mean it's just it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the
01:04:39
country and individual Americans as far as a specific prediction for 25 uh because I don't know when when that will
01:04:45
happen I think you will see the frontier Labs stop releasing their Leading Edge models to prevent knowledge distillation
01:04:53
and their IP effectively being stolen you know seek from China it was really impressive but it thinks it's gp4 you
01:05:00
know yeah so I just think you will you'll see the labs keep their best models in house distill them and put
01:05:07
small small models out over time fber do you have a contrarian belief and I did put into
01:05:14
Gemini Advanced 1.5 Pro with deep research the question which banks have the great biggest chance of being
01:05:19
insolvent or having a financial collapse or crisis so it's doing its research right now it'll be done in about 10
01:05:24
minutes I think which gives you an idea of how much research it does it's nuts freeberg what do you got I think
01:05:32
that the the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle and that there was a resounding
01:05:41
kind of vote from the American populace against socialism and I actually think my my contrarian belief is that we'll
01:05:47
see a rise a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States okay and I think that we going to see as
01:05:56
Gavin pointed out an acceleration of progress we're going to see an unleashing of economic growth because of
01:06:03
deregulation and AI but I do think that some markets we've also talked about the
01:06:08
the the the downfall of us autom manufacturing and some other Industries there's going to be a real significant
01:06:15
shift in 2025 some Industries and some companies are going to be huge winners and some companies are going to be huge
01:06:21
losers there's going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big Winners and some parts of the economy
01:06:25
that are going to be big losers when you have this sort of a change this fast there are often large contingents of
01:06:31
people that are left behind and when that happens I do think that the Socialist policies and the Socialist
01:06:36
movements gain steam when um Peron came to power in Argentina in the mid1 1940s that country
01:06:44
was experiencing 8% GDP growth to Gavin's point about accelerating growth growth does not mean that it benefits
01:06:51
everyone equally and I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to 100 billionaires to the
01:06:56
world's first trillionaire and it will also start to fuel this rise so I think that we will see an increase in the
01:07:03
breadth and depth of socialist movements in the United States by the way particularly with Doge cutting
01:07:08
Government funding to programs that benefit individuals employment being cut in in the federal government and through
01:07:14
Federal contractors there's just a lot of Rapid change that's about to kind of really upset a lot of people I totally
01:07:21
agree I think AI you know people are fond of saying that what in a world of AGI or ASI money will be
01:07:29
meaningless but for a short period of time money will matter more than it's ever mattered before because the amount
01:07:36
of money you can spend on AI on test time compute is going to give you a massive Advantage whether you're a
01:07:44
company or an individual so I just think AI is going to really amplify inequality
01:07:49
for some period of time yeah I hope I'm wrong like I hope you know AI leads to you know all sorts of you know
01:07:56
opportunities being created for low there's a lot of there's just going to be a lot of employment and income
01:08:02
disruption in 2025 and it's going to fuel socialist movements and I think that this is going to be a more
01:08:09
difficult Year everyone thinks it's kind of rosy red because we're all working in
01:08:12
the tech industry in Silicon Valley but the reality on the ground for most Americans could be a lot harsher than
01:08:18
any of us anticipate and that could make for a very difficult political environment and social environment this
01:08:23
is a great contrarian prediction free I would build on it that I don't think this is just going to hit blue collar I
01:08:30
seeing in the Venture industry and in entrepreneurs all over the place people who are super qualified who had six
01:08:37
figure salaries even to Mid six figure salaries not be able to find work we not find work at previous compensation
01:08:43
levels why because people are doing more with less it's much better to invest and
01:08:48
do deep research and Ai and automate stuff or deprecate stuff or delegate stuff to to other regions than to hire
01:08:57
Americans in some cases and that philosophy that's happening isn't just going to hit truck drivers it's going to
01:09:03
hit developers potentially designers writers what the contrar part of what you guys are saying what's the
01:09:10
contrarian part socialism socialism ISM On The Rise I it's pretty interesting because I think you don't think it's
01:09:18
contrarian you think it's obvious I think the party line has been that socialism was getting knocked back this
01:09:24
year with this it was a mandate against socialism and some of the Socialist policies that were
01:09:29
being put forth and I think that the contrarian view is that we're actually got this really wrong and socialism is
01:09:36
going to be on a big rise but just to build on what you said earlier like w wokeism and progressivism will decouple
01:09:42
from socialism I think wokeism and progressivism you know will be on a declining Trend but socialism in terms
01:09:50
of the government like policy more role yeah yeah why have Universal why don't we
01:09:58
have Universal healthare why don't we have prek or you know in every state and and you know these kind of things I
01:10:04
think Americans are right to ask those questions now other behaviors are obviously appor but you do have the
01:10:10
right to ask why we can't figure this out and why our government has failed Us in something as basic as you know
01:10:16
providing after school programs or universal healthcare or Universal Child Care these things are easy to do and
01:10:23
when you see everybody getting rich and and the polarization of wealth I can understand people saying why don't we
01:10:28
have these basic things when other countries have them it's a reasonable you're making the assumptive statement
01:10:33
that these things are easy to do which was what was said about education it's like let's give everyone access to
01:10:37
college education with the uh the federal student loan programs and what happened was when we introduced those
01:10:43
programs those schools started to charge more and the tuition went up every year
01:10:48
and eventually the cost of Education inflated away from the benefit you were getting from it and this has happened
01:10:53
universally in healthcare it has happened happed in housing it has happened in education it has happened in
01:10:58
every Market where the unit states where the government has stepped in to provide
01:11:03
Capital to support that market is that the market basically no longer operates in a free way I appreciate the challenge
01:11:09
to it and I'll explain to you why I believe it's easy if you just put this down to the States and you make it more
01:11:14
competitive I think you solve the problem if you introduce School vouchers and you create competition if you take
01:11:19
universal healthcare and maybe you run some experiments where different states get that money from the federal
01:11:24
government and let them run 50 different experiments I think we could actually solve some of these problems but you're
01:11:30
correct anything that the federal government does it eventually becomes corrupt and inefficient my most
01:11:34
contrarian belief was open AI loses its lead loses its nonprofit to for-profit transition and becomes the number four
01:11:43
player in AI the total collapse of open AI is my most contrarian prediction for 20 that's a good one the total collapse
01:11:52
of dble double doubling and tripling down hey man I'm trying to make this spicy it's a spicy category let's do I
01:11:59
got got it could still run for president Jal maybe he's great I don't know everybody
01:12:04
who all his friends left the company maybe he's great maybe he's a standup guy I mean everybody quit but maybe he's
01:12:12
gav are you are you familiar with J K's prediction that Jeff Bezos is gonna run for president it was that was my I was
01:12:17
predicting I wanted him to I wanted him to and he bought Washington Post and he quit the Amazon job and he bought a
01:12:24
house in Washington d and he went down to marago don't be surprised if Bezos after he gets through
01:12:30
his uh midlife crisis and going to Coachella and partying and having a great time which he deserves if he comes
01:12:37
back and says you know what I want to serve my country I still stand by Washington Post or do you think he's
01:12:42
gonna hold on to it well let's stick with that one because that's one prediction Jeff Bezos will sell the
01:12:48
Washington Post in 2025 that's a good poly Market yeah sell it to Caren swier sell it to Karen swier
01:12:55
run it right into the ground they'll Double Down uh okay best performing asset everybody loves this one best performing
01:13:02
asset hey we can you can put a price on this best performing asset last year chamat did a spread trade he was long
01:13:08
public tech stocks short private late stage Tech stock index NASDAQ top 100 Tech stock ETF was up 10% 2024 freeberg
01:13:18
you went with your uranium ETF not Uranus uranium ETF and you're a UR are a was down 1% in 2024 I know sideway you
01:13:28
know what I I looked at the components of that ETF last week when we were preparing for this it has absolute junk
01:13:35
in it like it it was not the right the right right way to kind of trade uranium but anyway that was my My outcome for
01:13:44
the year I went with the on demand economy with Uber Airbnb and door Dash Uber was up 30% but now it's only up 3%
01:13:52
with the robo taxi hadwin Airbnb is basically flat and doorish up big 74% shout out to
01:13:58
Stanley Tang great job to the team over there so jam get your flowers there let's do our best performing asset let's
01:14:04
let our guests go first Gavin what would be the best performing asset of 2025 I think the companies that make
01:14:10
high bandwidth memory going back to we're we're going to run out of compute it's it's
01:14:19
um it's actually a pretty shocking stat high band with memory is a bigger part of in cogs on gpus than Taiwan Simi is
01:14:28
and today there's two companies that can make it h HX and Micron we'll see if Samsung gets their act together but hbm
01:14:36
memory it's in Nvidia gpus AMD gpus Amazon terraniums and particularly in a world
01:14:44
of test time compute and inference being so important H been with memory is arguably more important than it ever was
01:14:55
and it's been um it's been sold out for the last two years so high band with memory would be my pick okay good pick
01:15:03
great pick in fact what do you got Jam so let me preface this by saying that this is a pick
01:15:10
that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero okay and six out of the remaining eight
01:15:23
times you make 10 extra money and then the final two times you make anywhere between a 100 to a thousand extra money
01:15:32
okay sounds like Bitcoin okay so this is a loser trade okay but I would be long CDs so what am I buying I am buying
01:15:44
insurance I'm buying Insurance using credit default swaps I'm buying what's called protection that
01:15:51
there is no default event in 25 again I'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities
01:16:03
but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in
01:16:09
2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace I think that there
01:16:18
is a small chance of some volatility next year I hope it doesn't happen I hope that this
01:16:26
trade like I said 92 times out of 100 loses money I hope it loses money but if it hits it will be the best
01:16:34
performing asset of 2025 it will be the equivalent of acman buying CDs right at the right at the beginning
01:16:41
of the covid crisis how does one buy those you have to have an isda you talk to the big investment Banks and they'll
01:16:47
price it out for you but again I and and I just want to be clear this is not something I think will happen it's not
01:16:52
something I want to happen but I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make
01:17:00
and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you when you look at the concentration of the S&P when you look
01:17:07
at just the total gross amount of debt that we have when you look at rate spiking all of these
01:17:14
things say having a little Insurance may not be a bad thing so I hope you're nodding Gavin you're nodding
01:17:22
you want to ask no no I was just I was just thinking I mean if if you know chat's prediction of a bank
01:17:27
failure is true you absolutely want to own CDs you I mean you'll you forget 100x
01:17:33
you'll a th000 x 10,000x what do you got freeberg so I went with Chinese tech stocks or Chinese Tech
01:17:46
ETFs wow I think that the market everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years
01:17:52
everyone's taken this isolation stance on positioning portfolios and saying hey we can't do business with China it's
01:17:59
over but I do think that the Trump Administration particularly with their recent request on Tik Tok being the ban
01:18:06
on Tik Tok being kind of halted they're trying to line up what I would call kind
01:18:10
of like the great deal with China so I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do but I think that
01:18:17
Trump and leadership in the US government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in
01:18:24
order to give Chinese companies access to the American market and I think that they're going to get a deal done given
01:18:29
the position with China I think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done that's one driver I think
01:18:34
there's three drivers the second driver is that obviously the cost of build out of electricity production in China is
01:18:39
unfathomable they recently approved $1 137 billion hydroelectric Dam facility which is going to add another I think
01:18:46
couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that country not to mention all the nuclear build that we've
01:18:52
talked about in the past so the cost per hours already lower the amount of electricity available is going up and
01:18:58
then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and
01:19:05
Entrepreneurship and this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling
01:19:11
more Innovation more free market activity and it's going to be one of the motivators for them to do a deal so when
01:19:16
you put all of this together I do think that there's a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been beat up under
01:19:22
the assumption that this is going to be a a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead and I think that that
01:19:27
may not be the case going into 25 and I think that their these stocks look pretty cheap I was just looking at
01:19:32
Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent multiple it seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in
01:19:39
25 if the macro works out this feels like a contrarian take I mean Trump I don't think is going to find uh a way to
01:19:47
balance the relationship with China very well and I don't think you can rattle up
01:19:51
entrepreneurship after you cut everybody's knees out the last time plus I don't trust any accounting statement
01:19:57
coming out of China because they could fudge whatever they want but wow what a great uh potential you know Buy Low sell
01:20:04
High the good thing is you'll know if I'm right you'll know if I'm right or wrong in a year you can exactly we'll
01:20:10
know exactly that's right pull the ETF absolutely I mean Gaffin what do you think of this hot take here from from Mr
01:20:15
freeberg really cheap I've had a I call it a no China guideline ever since the longtop financial fraud more than 15
01:20:24
years ago or it was just amazing it was you know uh a lot of great investors owned it and you know they
01:20:34
they talked a great game and they had a western auditor but then it turned out that the fraud was
01:20:41
happening at the local post office where they were opening up the documents that
01:20:46
the local Auditors had signed off on changing them and then sending different documents you know you know whatever
01:20:52
fedexing them yeah so I just think it's it's a hard place if you're I think if you're not Chinese to make
01:21:00
money but I tend to agree with a a lot of what David said I think Trump and G both want to deal I think there's a deal
01:21:07
to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold as I referenced and if that happens Katie bar
01:21:14
theor I mean there are really really high quality companies you know that are some of them are mid single digit
01:21:20
multiples and there and it's a big market so if if you did get it right and you by the way the Chinese the Chinese
01:21:26
companies serve a global market it's not just the US they serve uh you know Africa South America a mean the whole
01:21:33
southern hemisphere Well yeah if you look at byd that it's all over Europe it's yeah it's it's hug look I mean I I
01:21:41
mean the the Chinese companies and they have the best unit economics they have the best cost of production I mean
01:21:47
everything is advantaged particularly if you believe it's the year of the robot there's going to be a kind of a massive
01:21:54
demand around the world for Automation and for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over the
01:22:00
world and I think that China could service those markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of origin
01:22:06
so it's a pretty pretty powerful set of macro drivers as well I think the max 7 is going to be the best performing asset
01:22:13
I'm taking the other side chamat I think in an earlier prediction said maybe not
01:22:16
so much I think that what they've learned in the last couple years is that there is an incredible earnings
01:22:23
expansion you can do by not hiring people and Outsourcing jobs to other parts of the world and
01:22:29
automating and the gains we'll see from AI which they're producing for other companies and for consumers they're
01:22:37
applying first internally so the internal application of AI will allow these companies to have earnings growth
01:22:44
that people will not be able to comprehend over the next couple of years so I'm going with Max s we got a lot of
01:22:51
different takes here going different directions what a great episode so far all right worst performing asset last
01:22:58
year chamat said late stage Tech stock index mostly SAS freeberg you put in a brilliant spread trade short vertical
01:23:05
SAS long AI Cloud providers SAS has come had a little bit of a rebound but Google
01:23:11
up 36% for AI Cloud Microsoft 14% Amazon 46% all in 2024 I said llm startups like
01:23:20
open AI anthropic too many players open sourcing will kill pricing obviously the
01:23:25
one valuation we can track is open Ai and it doubled but I do think I'll longterm have that one work worst
01:23:31
performing asset of 2025 Gavin Enterprise application software okay this is basically just about like 2025
01:23:41
is going to be I think the year of Agents particularly in the second half agents just
01:23:45
being AI models that can take action on your behalf that can do anything online that a human can do
01:23:51
online and if the lab ABS and the big cloud providers dominate agents which seems likely going back to you know the
01:24:01
the lowcost producers going to win Enterprise application software I think is going to be in a lot of pain
01:24:08
and you know some of these companies are talking a big big game about agents but
01:24:13
at the end of the day they don't have their own models they don't own their own compute and I just don't see them being
01:24:21
ultimate winners in the world of Agents you know I could easily I could be wrong
01:24:26
because they do you know they they they have some customer data maybe a little bit of a data mode and they do you know
01:24:34
have strong customer relationships but you know most companies have relationships with AWS Google or
01:24:38
Microsoft as well so I think Enterprise application software will be in pain okay and chth what do you got I
01:24:47
think Gavin just absolutely nailed it I'm going to double down on what he said I think that there's a term that
01:24:56
that we will start to use more I started to use it internally at 890 over this last year in 2024 which is the software
01:25:03
industrial complex these are these large bloated in many cases enterprise software companies that effectively have
01:25:14
convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money essentially
01:25:22
wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around the crud database and along with that what they have
01:25:29
perfected really is a go to market and sales motion the golf trips the steak dinners you know we mentioned this
01:25:36
before what Alex karp railed against none of those things equate to product value and increasingly in the
01:25:46
world of agentic software and AI I think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways M and I
01:25:54
think the go to market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs Who start to exert a little bit more pressure on
01:26:02
their cios to manage spend and in that world I just think that these next Generation AI businesses are built
01:26:10
frankly an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that they compete against and so even if it's just
01:26:17
feature for feature the same I think the software industrial complex these old Mainline
01:26:24
traditional enterprise software companies I think you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in
01:26:30
2025 so I I agree with Gavin different words but same result and you put your time and money where your mouth is on
01:26:37
this one 11 months ago you found it 88090 to get 80% the the traction in in less than a year to me is shocking and I
01:26:47
don't think it speaks necessarily I I think we're decent we're very good we have great
01:26:52
Engineers but my 30% engineer in team I think does the work of 300 people by next year it'll be doing the work of
01:26:58
3,000 people maybe it will only grow by 10 or 20% so and the reason is we use these tools we're productive to an order
01:27:06
of magnitude that I didn't think was possible and as a result we're just able to price it differently so even if it's
01:27:13
the exact same product its cost structure is just meaningfully lower and so this is what I mean where the ROI
01:27:21
calculators get blown up all of the traditional go to market mod get blown up because in an RFP or in any other
01:27:27
sales environment what you do is somebody says it's $100 and you show up and you say 10 okay and at 10 it's still
01:27:35
hugely profitable for you and and just to add just one last thing is just you know fundamentally these Enterprise
01:27:42
application software companies the software industrial complex and I agree with everything jamat said you know
01:27:47
they're they're fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient and what the AI companies are
01:27:54
going to do is just say hey we're just going to replace that worker and it's just a fundamentally different
01:28:00
mentality par shift yeah and it goes to like there may may be a lot of pain that
01:28:05
a companies this and you know David's points around the you know potential rise of of
01:28:10
socialism what do you got for worst performing asset Mr freeberg 2020 I'm probably just going to Triple underline
01:28:17
vertical sass again perc pricing model being challenged pricing being compressed as companies explore inhouse
01:28:24
tools built with AI that replaces these kind of traditional business practices be
01:28:31
destroyed this is it was an obvious it was an yeah it was an obvious one on my list but I want to make a different one
01:28:38
I want to make a different one how about do you have anything open Ai No open is
01:28:42
great all the talented people left but you know I don't know where they are where do all the where are they all the
01:28:48
other open AI employees are they on vacation they're skiing too right no they've all started competitors oh right
01:28:53
that's what happened correct yeah they all left to compete and have Revenge startups wow that's an interesting Trend
01:28:59
okay so consumers make five big decisions in their life as we all know college still doing 12 billion Revenue I
01:29:05
mean well that's that's a projection sometimes meet reality six billion in losses too David against that
01:29:12
12 billion in Revenue yeah six billion this year or six billion next year I think the six is for next year but I
01:29:19
yeah I don't know I guess it makes sense why they're trying to charge 200 bucks a
01:29:22
month now they got some headwinds okay listen consumers make five big decisions in
01:29:28
their life we know college spouse kids are uh the obvious ones and then cars and homes and the consumer is up against
01:29:35
it with record debt so since you can't trade College spouse kids really I think Legacy car companies in real estate are
01:29:44
going to face continued headwinds and be terrible assets because listen we've overbuilt in some cases there's tons of
01:29:51
cars on lots and people can't afford homes with these mortgages so I think these are going to be the two worst
01:29:57
performing asset people in the Legacy oems as chth pointed out in a previous prediction and then I just think real
01:30:03
estate is the same if you look at a place like Texas two years in a row housing values have gone down rent has
01:30:08
gone down two years in a row same things happening in other states where they allowed you to build and people are
01:30:12
leaving states where they don't allow you to build so that's my worst performing asset trade Enterprise was my
01:30:17
other choice but I'll go with something slightly different most anticipated trend for 2025 last year chamath
01:30:23
congratulations you said last year that Bitcoin would hit 100K for the first time nailed it half court shot well done
01:30:30
I think at the time you made that prediction it was probably trading at it felt like a layup felt like a layup to
01:30:35
you up 112% uh freeberg you said predictive models in AI driven Discovery and farma and bioengineering how did
01:30:41
that do that prediction well there was a lot of funding and Demus won the Nobel priz Noel prize there you go so it
01:30:48
worked out I picked efficiency in the form of AI advancements in labor and Outsourcing and I've seen that Bunch
01:30:54
with our investment in Athena go to Athena w.com okay got my plugin there let's go for most anticipated 2025 Trend
01:31:01
what do he got Chim off I think that there are a handful of not to overuse an overuse term but canaries in the coal
01:31:09
mine for the end of the deep State and I would like to point to one which is this
01:31:20
obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio and essentially what it is is a
01:31:28
mechanism that the banks can use to include or not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves etc etc
01:31:37
now why is this an interesting thing it's not interesting for many people it's very
01:31:42
Arcane but if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025 I think what you're going going to
01:31:54
see is maneuvering at the edges of these Arcane regulations that effectively Kick
01:32:02
the Can down the road and there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because you know we believe
01:32:10
that we meaning collectively America that maybe Doge won't be as effective as it needs to be that there's still going
01:32:17
to need to be you know 1020 trillion dollars of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to
01:32:23
plug holes in the coming years my point in all of this is we don't need to understand the details
01:32:30
except that if we don't move the goalpost here it is a great sign that the folks that are running the show
01:32:43
are the ones that we all elected okay so that is my most anticipated Trend small
01:32:49
Arcane regulatory changes that allow us to Kick the Can down the road stop in its tracks this is an example okay
01:32:56
freeberg you got a most anticipated trend for 2025 my most anticipated trend is around the announcement of buildout
01:33:04
of nuclear power in the United States in 2025 as a function of deregulation and some new
01:33:11
technologies I do think that this new government is going to be U much more accommodating and it's going to as I've
01:33:18
said in the past I think it's a necessity just because of the the the rate at which we have to do power build
01:33:24
outs to meet kind of competitive demand against China the United States is going
01:33:29
to need to add more power electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source so I do
01:33:36
believe that nuclear is an inevitability I think that the deregulation will happen in 25 and I do know a lot of very
01:33:42
smart people who are actually starting nuclear power companies and have left very good jobs to go and do this in
01:33:50
anticipation of this happening in 25 so I'm very bullish that's a leading indicator for sure when
01:33:56
smart people do something with their time that's a great indicator Gavin what do you got uh I think Ai and Nick I sent
01:34:02
you a chart I don't know if you can Flash it up but um I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter in
01:34:12
2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24 and the reason is just with um with 01 and 03 this is rcgi it's designed you we
01:34:23
keep we keep changing the goalposts for the touring test and AGI and I'm sure we're going to change
01:34:30
them again as we're going to blow through this and I just think what has happened is we were scaling around
01:34:36
around one on one axis which was pre-training and then we started scaling around in Fritz time compute and it's
01:34:44
very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance and that is reasoning and what this is is
01:34:52
these models the internet is composed of answers people giving answers and what the models really benefit
01:35:00
from is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer and this is you know in in AI terms they
01:35:09
call it a reasoning trace and it's one reason you know 18 months ago everybody was like oh wow the more code you train
01:35:14
a model on the better it does and all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code but all code you
01:35:21
see kind of the reasoning the internal monologue the thought process the step by step and so what's happening is
01:35:28
you're using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces so you ask a model you
01:35:36
know solve this problem it has to be a problem that is functionally verifiable that has an answer or we know the answer
01:35:42
and we say show your work and we have it do that many many different ways and times and then you pick the best ones
01:35:48
and you kind of feed those back into the model you apply some reinforcement learning to it and so now you're scaling
01:35:54
along three axes that are multiplicative with each other and I just I you know a guy on the Google team
01:36:04
said tweeted maybe five days ago it's going to be a straight shot to ASI artificial super intelligence and I
01:36:11
think that might be right Ilia gave a talk at NPS Ilia Suk um one of kind of the original pioneers of this field and
01:36:19
he said something that I thought was scary and he said these models that reason are inherently unpredictable so
01:36:27
the best reasoning models in the world today are the ones that play games the kind of alphago alpha zero style models
01:36:33
and they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human Grandmaster ever could have come up with
01:36:41
and now these models are going to be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of
01:36:48
domains which you know hopefully will be awesome but you know might not be yeah well they're going to go around corners
01:36:54
that people might not have considered that are non-intuitive and then just to Circle back and do a little call back
01:36:59
here remember I asked which banks would have the biggest chance of being insolvent uh or having Financial
01:37:06
collapse or crisis tons of misspellings in there as I typed it while we were talking and you can see what deep M uh
01:37:11
deep research did here it went and said here's what we're going to do we're going to research a bunch of websites
01:37:16
and find a list of banks in the US find top banks by us by asset for each one of
01:37:20
these Banks find their latest Financial savings for each of these Banks find their Capital adequacy ratios for each
01:37:26
of these Banks find their loan loss you get the idea and then it went and it analyzed and then it created a report
01:37:32
this took about 10 minutes and when you look it created this final report here where it gave a list chth of JP Morgan
01:37:39
Bank of America City Group yada yada it did a an analysis of each one and at the
01:37:45
end you can see all the different websites it pulled it was well over a hundred websites that it pulled that's
01:37:51
inred live data 162 websites and you have to pay for this but it's only $20 a month and it's
01:37:59
conclusion this analysis has provided a snapshot of the financial health of some
01:38:02
of the largest US Banks while all banks face inherent risk City Group in Wells Fargo appear to be the highest risk of
01:38:08
insolvency of financial collapse compared to JP mortgage Chase Bank of America Goldman Sachs City groups recent
01:38:13
net loss lower c one ratio and high exposure I mean just try looking at this now I don't know how much of this is
01:38:19
correct I'm no expert on this but it does seem like it's a pretty good start of where it's getting to and if you
01:38:24
haven't used 1.5 Pro with deep research just go to gemini.com I'm not being paid
01:38:30
to say this I just think it's the best product in the market and it's pretty darn impressive
01:38:36
okay my most anticipated trend for 2025 was alluded to in an earlier prediction I think by Gavin himself mine is that uh
01:38:46
exits and DPI shower down uh and we'll have this incredible uh distribution as the wrath of lenina con ends and m&a and
01:38:53
and IPOs will surge that is my prediction my most anticipated Trend okay let's go to most anticipated media
01:39:02
I had two that I was working back and forth from Jame James guns DC Universe with Superman coming out this year I
01:39:09
think it's going to be amazing Andor season 2 could be amazing I predict they're going to do a clone wars live
01:39:15
action series if you don't know the Clone Wars watch it with your kids it's amazing animated series that takes place
01:39:19
during the prequels but I went with a a little of a weird Choice here I think my
01:39:25
most anticipated media is seeing what happens with Legacy Media Outlets owned by billionaires Andor people who no
01:39:32
longer want to pick aide Washington Post CNN and LA Times specifically are steering towards the middle and trying
01:39:39
to get back to Classic journalism the editors are revolting Karen swisser is upset and uh they're adding some
01:39:47
rightwing voices it is going to be popcorn time for everybody so enjoy whatever you want to enjoy Star Wars I
01:39:55
got a little Star Wars for you with Andro season 2 I got a little Superman or you can watch the chaos in the
01:40:00
editorial newsrooms at Washington Post and LA Times what do you got from most anticipated media chath it is the
01:40:08
enormity of the files that are going to get Declassified and released by the Trump Administration I think it's going
01:40:16
to be unbelievably interesting salacious useful good Earnest all all of the above so the
01:40:28
JFK files the Epstein FES Diddy files the moon landing who knows what they find across all of these other Fringe
01:40:38
quote unquote conspiracy theories that may turn out actually to have some shred of truth but all of that let's call it
01:40:44
content for lack of a better word that gets released in 2025 by the Trump Administration I think will be
01:40:49
incredibly interesting what do you got Dave media any anticipated media for you what do you got I'm into AI video games
01:40:56
the cost of production comes way down when you use Ai and you can have Dynamic story lines you can have new gameplay
01:41:02
Concepts things that don't exist today I think that the creative Talent Plus the
01:41:07
technical talent that you typically find at development houses can be kind of Unleashed with tools that have come to
01:41:12
come to Market recently we've seen a lot of the generative video stuff but there's also ways structurally that
01:41:17
video games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can run kind of locally it can be generating parameters
01:41:23
that can then use an existing rendering engine so you can have entirely new story lines and entirely new kind of
01:41:28
plot sequences so I do think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the video game industry with
01:41:35
the V variety of AI kind of capabilities that are hitting market now and uh it's
01:41:39
going to be incredible it's going to be incredible entertainment people are GNA people that don't play video games are
01:41:44
going to find stuff that they're going to love Gavin most anticipating media 2025 unquestioned 1923 season 2 I'm
01:41:52
normally a science fiction kind of fantasy or you spy kind of guy when it comes to TV but
01:42:01
1883 and 1923 were the first TV shows that kind of hit me the way Game of Thrones did and I'm crazy excited for
01:42:07
that to come out fantastic are you watching land man I'm enjoying landman with I haven't watched it yet I'm
01:42:13
excited to try it it's quite fun quite fun turns out this guy Taylor sharidan he's I mean it's incredible he's in the
01:42:21
zone I highly Rec Day of the Jackal I know chamath also loved Day of the Jackal oh that was really good that was
01:42:28
really was a good that was a good J Sugg for stre yeah I'm Jackal sakario yeah absolutely what was our predictions for
01:42:37
for this last year last year shth predicted Mr Beast freeberg AI generated news I predicted Gladiator 2 and the
01:42:45
three body problem Gladiator 2 was mid but okay three body problem I didn't finish so I guess mid Jimmy
01:42:54
show on Amazon Prime the Mr Beast thing was the top unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries wow incredible all right
01:43:03
we're going to do our prediction markets here I'm going to put up a prediction Market which is based upon immigration
01:43:11
and the promise that Trump made to have 15 million people be deported from the country I think in the first year I'm
01:43:18
going to set the over under at 5% of that stated number which is 750,000 so after one year in office will Trump
01:43:28
have deported 750,000 less or more that's my first prediction how are you going to measure
01:43:34
that you have to there has to be like a a source of truth on these things right well do it based on the White House's
01:43:40
reporting of deportations yeah it's reasonable and we'll check with the poly Market team if there's a way to do that
01:43:46
prediction Market obviously but I think that was the biggest issue of the election so I'm putting it up there with
01:43:50
just 5% in the first year yeah it is interesting Obama deported I think more than two million people it's like people
01:43:57
have forgotten but he was actually really really tough on the border yeah chamat do you have a prediction Market
01:44:02
you want to put up the magate representation in the S&P 500 shrinks below 30% oh that's a good one that's a
01:44:14
good one so dispersion would happen to the other stocks less concentration that's a good one so we'll finalize
01:44:20
these you'll be able to I wanted to kind of play with was Microsoft AWS and Google Cloud Revenue
01:44:27
growth who's going to win in growth in 2025 I don't know how closely you guys crack but um I get a sense that Google
01:44:35
is kind of accelerating ahead Gavin I don't know how much you've SP I mean Google
01:44:41
is I wouldn't say they're a lot smaller which makes it easier for them to grow faster yeah
01:44:49
[Music] um we talk about yeah I mean I I guess um who has the largest gain dollar
01:44:57
dollar gain in Revenue in Cloud Revenue in 2025 is it Google Amazon or Microsoft well it probably won't be
01:45:06
Google because if they had the largest dollar gain it would mean they were growing at at insane rates but I think
01:45:12
Azure versus AWS will be interesting oh I know the other one I want you do which was the national debt
01:45:19
the national debt has grown about two trillion per year in each of the previous two
01:45:27
presidential administrations right so over the last eight years we've gone up over 16 trillion two trillion per year
01:45:32
average so I'm going to set it at and Trump said he would not increase the national debt I'll just set it at the
01:45:40
national debt increases 1 trillion in the next year over under is that a good prediction Market or is it should be two
01:45:48
trillion um yeah so what I would do is I would set the Federal debt for December
01:45:54
the US Treasury Market report on federal debt in 2025 and I would set it at 30 37
01:46:00
trillion and so you basically the US Treasury um market report 20 December 2025 above or below 37 trillion it's
01:46:09
going to be above I mean let's just call it 38 trillion then yeah you want to basically in order to make this when you
01:46:16
set a line Dave it's got to be one where people take either side of it it can't be everybody takes we'll we'll do the US
01:46:22
Treasury Market market report December 2025 federal debt above 38 trillion or below 38 trillion perfect which would be
01:46:30
how much added in the year about one and a half yeah I love that I love that that's a perfect one we'll see if he can
01:46:36
make any he can control the spending or if it'll just be the same Gavin what's your sense on federal debt next year I
01:46:41
think like most things it'll take like immigration will'll take up time to get going yeah it just it's going to take a
01:46:47
little bit of time but I think they will make progress by the way at some point if I'm here on the Allin again I want to
01:46:54
talk about UFOs and the drones let's talk about it now do it right now are you going full conspiracy
01:47:01
theorist are you are you trying to get your seat here by being a little more Alex Jones do you believe those drones
01:47:07
were aliens what's going on so I don't know and I think it's very clear if you look at all the um you know statements
01:47:13
from the New Jersey Mayors and governors you know who've met with the police the
01:47:18
FBI the defense department that they don't know now you know Trump said someone in the
01:47:25
government knows what they are he also said he was not going to go to Bedminster anytime soon his Resort there
01:47:32
I just think over the last I'd say eight years every 18 months there's a big story in the New York Times the
01:47:39
Washington posts the New Yorker the Atlantic very credible media sources with dozens of interviews with
01:47:47
fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with Advanced sensors that made no sense to
01:47:52
them and there's kind of a taboo that went away there was an article in the New Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of
01:48:02
people who were at you know kind of the the Skunk Works Laboratories in the 1950s and said they
01:48:09
absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that have been recovered from a crash it's one
01:48:16
reason the US made such big leaps in Material Science and um you know there was Mona
01:48:23
thing where essentially a lot of you know astronomist said hey this is this is clearly a UFO of some sort including
01:48:31
the head of astronomy at Harvard and then just the conspiracy theory I would have is if if if if
01:48:41
if these are actually UFOs and not you know government drones either from the United States or
01:48:49
China you know it seems like the most likely explanation in New Jersey is at some sort of a
01:48:55
drill and obviously once this hysteria gets going people um you know misidentify commercial airplanes as
01:49:04
drones and like why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights but it is just interesting that there was you know
01:49:11
a big concentration of these reports as we were scaling into nuclear technology 1945 to
01:49:19
1960 and then now that AI is getting going which is the next kind of technological phase shift for Humanity
01:49:26
there's another big b of reports you can come back come back next week you you won
01:49:34
congratulations we have our winner for all in Idol Gavin is now the fourth best I love this kind of
01:49:40
conspiracy but I mean come on I we how do we make a poly Market out of this freed I don't know
01:49:46
we are there are there documents that you think Trump will release about the past in terms if UFOs there must be just
01:49:53
an entire spectrum of stuff that that could be subject to Foya if we went after it
01:50:00
no yeah I mean I think it depends how deeply it's classified and you know I'm sure if the government doesn't want to
01:50:06
give it up um they won't give it up but you know there's all the you know there's all but you think but look let's
01:50:12
be honest you think that there are docks like there there's documentation that the US government has that there are
01:50:19
UFOs that there have been we just can't explain it yeah and you know they they call it uaps
01:50:25
now to make it you know not flying saucers but it just feels like something F what percentage chance do you put on
01:50:33
we have actual knowledge on a percentage basis what percentage chance you put on
01:50:37
the government US government is sitting on knowledge of extral 20% at least 20% from chath what do you say gav I would
01:50:44
say 25 I would take the over on the 20 okay great so you think there's a a non a significant small chance that this is
01:50:52
the case free ber sultant of science what chance do you think there is this government sitting on some
01:50:59
extraterrestrial life or proof of it it's a longer conversation I don't have time for this but I I gotta be honest I
01:51:05
don't um I I don't generally align with the idea that like our very narrow range
01:51:11
of like understanding of technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit us I think that there's an
01:51:21
extension of information gathering that doesn't require moving physical biological life forms from one part of
01:51:29
the galaxy to another so I think that the whole premise of like UFOs moving bodies around is rooted in the current
01:51:36
state of Technology of humanity which is the basis of Arthur Clark's treatment of 2001 A Space
01:51:44
Odyssey not which was done before the screenplay which was done before the book and the treatment which you can buy
01:51:50
I think highlights this the best which is eventually every civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of
01:51:56
technology that you no longer need to physically move the bodies of the the biological organisms around that you
01:52:03
simply are gathering information and affecting information because once you have the ability to convert any molecule
01:52:08
into any other molecule and you have access to sufficient energy which you will eventually evolve to be able to do
01:52:14
you can basically turn your local part of the universe into anything you want it to turn into and then you're simply
01:52:18
gathering information from all over the rest of the universe so I would argue that there doesn't really make a lot of
01:52:25
basic sense in why alien bodies would want to move around the Galaxy I'm just saying it right now if
01:52:31
Trump releases information on extraterrestrial life I voting for him to have a third ter I'm putting it out
01:52:38
there I'm going full Maga he gets a third term for me with changing the Constitution this has been another
01:52:43
amazing episode of the all in one last question for Gavin one oh well forg okay do you think extraterrestrial life built
01:52:51
the pyramids is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy I don't know it is it is
01:52:59
so strange the way there are you know in so many I would say cultures all over the world
01:53:07
pre you know we are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the time of the Great Pyramids like there
01:53:14
was a long time ago but it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world there are these depictions of what
01:53:21
looked like astronauts and then there's all these Renaissance Era paintings that clearly show what we
01:53:29
would call UFOs in the Skies over cities so I don't know I just think it's I'm with you I love conspiracy Gavin
01:53:39
this has been if you're if you're Jason if you're a questioning person these things create
01:53:47
these weird un you know open Loops that it's like hard simulation so fully I'm fully vested in this anyway Free's got
01:53:55
to drive back free BG's driving home I think the pyramids the best most credible thing I saw on the pyramids was
01:54:00
that they used water and they raised water in channels so they put them on wood slats or something and then they
01:54:06
would raise like um in like the um Panama Canal they would do canals and Float them up and then place them and
01:54:13
then release the water which you know sounds great to me this has been another amazing episode of the Allin podcast and
01:54:21
thank you to everybody let's have an amazing 2025 to everybody all kick let's kick ass 2025
01:54:28
let's take all we'll see you all next time byebye bye bye let your winners ride Rainman
01:54:41
David and in said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love queen of
01:54:50
[Music] besties [Music] are my dog taking your driveway man oh man myit will meet me we
01:55:05
should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual
01:55:10
tension that they just need to release somehow we need to get mer [Music] I'm going all in