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The Vomit Test: Friedberg explains the trillions being stolen “legally” from federal spending

January 01, 2026 / 01:21

This episode discusses government fraud, federal spending, and the implications of legal versus illegal theft. Key topics include estimates of fraud in government spending and specific examples of questionable financial practices.

The conversation highlights Elon Musk's estimate that 20% of federal spending may be fraudulent, suggesting that the total could reach trillions when considering state and local spending. The hosts express concern about the potential scale of this issue.

They also differentiate between legal and illegal fraud, using examples like Somali daycare fraud and the actions of Stacy Abrams in relation to NGO funding. The discussion raises questions about the morality of these actions.

Overall, the episode emphasizes the significant impact of these financial practices on the economy and the difficulty in addressing them due to their scale.

TLDR

Government fraud in spending could reach trillions, raising ethical concerns about legal versus illegal practices.

Episode

1:21
00:00:00
My guess, tip of the iceberg, Elon's estimate was 20% of federal spending falls under this kind of fraud camp.
00:00:06
Could be more. And then when you add in state and local spending and you start to do the accounting on all of this,
00:00:12
we're probably talking about a sizable percentage of overall GDP that is effectively theft through government
00:00:19
agencies or government checks being written. And I think that's going to be the great uncovering of 2026 is we're
00:00:26
going to see on the order of trillions of dollars of >> trillions >> trillions of dollars of this sort of
00:00:32
behavior happening across the economy. And I also think the other side nothing will happen and and I think nothing will
00:00:39
happen because the cost is going to be so significant. It's almost like staring
00:00:43
into the abyss. It's going to make people feel sick to try and address it. >> How do you differentiate between legal
00:00:48
theft and illegal theft? Meaning I think what the Somali daycarees were doing was
00:00:53
outright fraud and is illegal. But when Stacy Abrams creates a NGO in the final days of the Biden administration and
00:01:00
that gets stuffed with $2 billion, I mean technically I guess that's legal, but it's clearly a different kind of
00:01:07
theft and fraud. >> Would you throw up in your mouth when you heard the news? That's the that's
00:01:11
the test. If you don't pass the common sense vomit in the mouth test, it doesn't matter whether it's legal or
00:01:17
illegal. It's up and you'll realize that pretty quickly.

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Episode Highlights

  • The Great Uncovering of 2026
    Trillions of dollars of potential fraud may be revealed by 2026.
    “We're probably talking about a sizable percentage of overall GDP that is effectively theft.”
    @ 00m 23s
    January 01, 2026
  • Legal vs Illegal Theft
    A discussion on the blurred lines between legal and illegal financial practices.
    “How do you differentiate between legal theft and illegal theft?”
    @ 00m 47s
    January 01, 2026

Episode Quotes

  • It's almost like staring into the abyss.
    The Vomit Test: Friedberg explains the trillions being stolen “legally” from federal spending
  • Would you throw up in your mouth when you heard the news?
    The Vomit Test: Friedberg explains the trillions being stolen “legally” from federal spending

Key Moments

  • Government Fraud00:04
  • Sizable Theft00:12
  • The Abyss00:42
  • Legal vs Illegal00:47
  • Common Sense Test01:08