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🔮The All-In Crystal Ball: Friedberg's Alibaba Call

February 21, 2025 / 01:17

This episode discusses the potential of Chinese tech stocks as the best performing asset of 2025, focusing on the political and economic factors influencing this outlook. Key topics include the Trump Administration's possible strategies for engaging with China, the cost of electricity production in China, and the Chinese Communist Party's impact on market dynamics.

The conversation highlights the current sentiment around Chinese tech stocks, which have faced significant declines due to geopolitical tensions. The speaker suggests that the US government's desire to foster a better relationship with China could lead to increased opportunities for American companies in the Chinese market.

Additionally, the discussion touches on the potential for innovation and entrepreneurship in China, indicating that the Chinese Communist Party may shift its approach to support these areas. The speaker specifically mentions Alibaba as an example of a Chinese tech stock that appears undervalued and could benefit from these changes.

TLDR

Chinese tech stocks may thrive in 2025 due to potential US-China market openings.

Episode

1:17
00:00:00
what would be the best performing asset of 2025 I went with Chinese tech stocks everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech
00:00:08
stocks over the last couple of years everyone's taken this isolation stance saying hey we can't do business with
00:00:14
China it's over but I do think that the Trump Administration they're trying to line up what I would call the great deal
00:00:20
with China I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do but I think that leadership in the US
00:00:26
government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in in order to give Chinese companies
00:00:31
access to the American Market that's one driver the second driver is that obviously the cost of build out of
00:00:36
electricity production in China is unfathomable and then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this
00:00:41
incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and Entrepreneurship and this is a moment where you could
00:00:47
kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more Innovation
00:00:50
more free market activity and it's going to be one of the motivators for them to
00:00:53
do a deal so when you put all of this together I do think that there's a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been
00:01:00
beat up under the assumption that this is going to be a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead and I
00:01:04
think that that may not be the case going into 25 and I think that these stocks look pretty cheap I was just
00:01:08
looking at Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent multiple it seems like these stocks could be poised for a
00:01:15
pretty good run in 25

Episode Highlights

  • US-China Business Relations
    The US government aims to open the Chinese market for American companies.
    “I think that leadership in the US government want to kind of open up the Chinese market.”
    @ 00m 24s
    February 21, 2025
  • Chinese Tech Stocks Outlook
    Despite challenges, Chinese tech stocks may see a resurgence by 2025.
    “I think that these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25.”
    @ 01m 15s
    February 21, 2025

Episode Quotes

  • I think that these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25.
    🔮The All-In Crystal Ball: Friedberg's Alibaba Call

Key Moments

  • Chinese tech stocks00:02
  • Isolation stance00:10
  • Great deal with China00:18
  • Market access00:26
  • Innovation and free markets00:45
  • Stocks poised for a run01:07