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there's this kind of thing that happens in biology called Evolution and a lot of
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people think evolution is this continuous process but it's not evolution is this process by which there
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is some significant growth for a period of time and then there is an Extinction event or an external force that causes
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what ultimately becomes what's called punctuated equilibrium so the whole kind of system resets and then the healthier
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stronger species survive and they grow and they persist and if you look at the first chart Nick
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that I pulled up this will just show you guys past Extinction events large amounts of biomass over the past half
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billion years get wiped out when these Extinction events occur and then Evolution occurs because the species
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that can survive the extinction event persist in the environment and they grow and that's how Evolution kind of
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actually takes place is there's an external force that changes what survives and what doesn't it's kind of a
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testing Force if you look at federal spending and this is a crazy link but here's federal spending over the last
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couple of decades and I would argue that many of the agencies much of the bureaucracy many of
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the jobs created many of the spending programs many of the operating models many of the behaviors can kind of be
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viewed as a specie or species within this ecosystem that have kind of grown a lot over the last few decades and I
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think what Trump's mandate was by the people and people don't want to hear this and they don't like it but his
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mandate was to be kind of the extinction event and whatever agencies whatever operating processes whatever individuals
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whatever bureaucratic systems exist within the federal government that can withstand the scrutiny of the
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individuals that Trump is going to put in charge of each of these agencies that they can survive and they can come out
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the other end there is certainly some degree of strength and resilience and hardiness this is not about right or
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wrong they deserve to exist if they can this is going to bring in this is going to
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bring in the most disruptive force that federal agencies have ever seen and the intention with Trump isn't to find some
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person to keep running things the way they have been run in the past his mandate from the people who elected him
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based on the message he put out there is to do the opposite which is to go in and
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be as disruptive and damaging and destructive as possible and whatever comes out the other side will be
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stronger will be harder and theoretically will'll be you know more resilient and I think that that's the
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event that's underway now the people who are getting exactly what they want in Trump's candidacies are the Democrats
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they were saying Trump is going to put a bunch of crazy lunatics in office and he's going to make them the cabinet and
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they're G and that and now they're able to kind of clap their hands and say we told you so we told you so and I'm not
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sure that if they're really getting the message which is that the intention here
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isn't to keep things running the way they have been running but to really fundamentally test the systems and test
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the systems with the most challenging oppositional forces the systems have ever been tested by which is the
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candidates or the individuals that he's putting in charge of each of these agencies so I I'm not saying it's right
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or wrong one way or the other but I'm making an observation that this is going to be kind of an extinction level event
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that Trump's decisions on who he's putting in place I think are going to drive an outcome on the other end that's
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going to make the government look very different and I you know I'm not going to sit around and say this person's good
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this person's bad because I don't think the point is to find someone that's quote qualified to do the job the
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intention is actually quite different and the outcome may actually be positive for America if you fast forward a couple
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of years in some cases and there's some cases where things could get really messed up and people could suffer and
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jobs will be lost and all sorts of bad things will happen but we cannot continue the way we have been with
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respect to federal spending with respect to federal spending bureaucracy and inefficiency in the federal government
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and so something has to happen and if this is the path by which this gets resolved in The Limited window that's in
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of this this particular Administration which is probably two years maybe four maybe this is what has to happen shabat
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where do you stand on free BG's interesting metaphor here that we're sending meteors into each of these
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departments to blow them up and see if they survive an extinction level event I saw you nodding do you think this is uh
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an interesting framing great take I have nothing to add to Freed Brook State got
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it who's your favorite yeah you asked me the question I answered who's your favorite well I think let's take Elon
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and VI off the table because that's an obvious one that we've all been behind since the beginning yeah and no and we
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all support the idea who's not against more efficiency I mean you'd have to be an idiot to be against efficiency it's
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just the easiest one to say you love I think the highest beta pick so far has been Bobby Kennedy I think the second
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highest beta pick is Matt Gates explain highest beta pick in this context please
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I think the third is tulsey gabber that there is the PO poal for an enous positive two or three sigma
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outcome but there's also the chance that it can really not work that was exactly why I picked Bobby
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Kennedy because he's goingon to shake it up right Peter teal just did this podcast with Bari Weiss and it was
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fantastic by the way highly recommend highly recommend he's awesome the one of the great things he said is
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that he was talking about science but I think the example works here as well which is that we didn't have enough
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skepticism and we had too much Dogma he was talking about sort of like the the death of
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Science and I think that that idea applies here as well which is that the federal bureaucracy has not really been
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challenged and VI put out a very compelling post on X where he basically said like look when you on the
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one hand there's going to be radical transparency but on the other hand there's a lot of case law that we can
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use to kind of try to really dismantle the government apparatus and they're putting themselves on a shot clock to do
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it by 2026 for the 250th anniversary so I think I'm really predisposed to this idea
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that it'll Force the government to be very resilient at the end of this process and I think that's a good thing
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and it'll probably be very different than what it is on the way in and I think that that can be very positive