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please uh join me um welcoming venod kosla to Stage venod oh how are you how are you doing legend
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legend let your winners [Music] ride and in we open sources to the fans and they've just gone
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[Music] crazy wow thanks Legend how are you Legend venod good to see you just by way of
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background I think we all know venod um venod is a legend and a friend uh his Indian army officer dad
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wanted his kid to join the Army and venod decided instead to go into business after reading about Intel and
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getting inspired by co-founder Andy Grove an immigrant who got um funding for his startup in Silicon
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Valley venod later got a masters in biomedical engineering from Carnegie melon on a full scholarship Stanford GSB
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rejected him twice he finally got accepted and received his NBA 1980 and he worked at several startups some of
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which failed and then one of them worked out pretty good Sun Micro Systems started in
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1982 with his Stanford classmates Scott McNeely Andy beckim and um Bill Joy uh venod um raised $300,000 in seed
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capital from Venture firm Kleiner Perkins Cofield and buyers and within 5 years son made a billion dollars in
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annual revenue he became a GP ecliner uh where he helped create an NextGen which
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he sold to AMD for 28% of its market cap the first successful Intel microprocessor clone company and his
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largest return to date maybe we'll talk about this today was Juniper Networks where the firm's $3 million investment
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in the 90s earned $7 billion not bad in 2004 he launched coasta Ventures 2006 I pitched him and he
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rejected me me as an investor in my company I came back in 2011 and he led my series B and I had three competing
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offers and I picked V so um ven's been a great partner by the way I will also give you guys I had offers from um I
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guess I'll say it Founders fund and andron Horowitz for my series B venod gave me the lowest valuation and I still
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took his offer entry price matter did he add more value vod's whole point was VCS
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typically add negative value we're going to put a senator on your board that we know that knows this and that that firm
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and the other board members they brought and the partners they brought to the table for me were incredible and he's
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been a great um mentor and adviser I'll also say I always gave people advice on Veno because I get a lot of reference
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calls like should I take money from venod I heard he's pain in the ass sometimes and I'm like let me tell you
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something about venod I've never told you this in public but I said the thing about venod is you go into a meeting
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with venod and he's like the Oracle in Neo The Matrix you go in the kitchen and he's like you know she says no thyself
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she pulls out the chocolate chip cookies she said he says am I the one she says you're not the one kicks him out he has
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to ultimately decide what the right decision is and venod will cast for you a vision of all the things that you can
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become and and push you and try and make you extend your vision for your business
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and what is possible and through that thought through that conversation through the visioneering that he can
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help you do as an entrepreneur sometimes you need to listen and sometimes you need to ignore the [ __ ] advice he
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gives you but I will say that um the role he plays is is really important and I've seen it work across some of the
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most important companies in Silicon Valley in the world today so venot thanks so much for being can I just
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interrupt with one comment yes you know advice to all the entrepreneurs most we's want to be your
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friend and so they are hypocritically polite instead of brutally honest in a way that can actually help you make a
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better decision in in that's sort of religion for me I prefer brutal honesty to hypocritical politeness and when
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people don't do that they are actually harming the entrepreneur and having the entrepreneur like them more that's not
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my game and is that what you mean when you say V most VCS add negative value well they take a very shortterm
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approach uh just going through a situation companies being recapped they asked us to participate I
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said you are hanging on to revenue that is bad Revenue if you get rid of it and restart the company with positive
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Revenue in the right technology approach will partipate and even lead but they hung on to revenue since the beginning
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of this year by the way three years ago I asked them to take a technology approach as opposed to a people approach
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to the business they did not because Revenue came fast the technology took time to develop
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and they didn't invest in it now they're going back and I just got an email today
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saying they are happy to take our approach of really investing in the technology lower burn rate not try and
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show higher Revenue so they can be acquired instead build a company yeah that's fundamentally the kind of thing I
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run into constantly so I I want to start our conversation with AI um I'm going to
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kick this off you invested in open AI you've been in inting in AI technology as people are framing it today for some
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time can you share with us a little bit about how you became an investor in open
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AI in the context of the AI trajectory that you've been seeing for some time and also maybe give us a little color
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because we haven't had this question answered on our show about how open AI went from nonprofit to for-profit and
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what the future is for open AI well let me tell you a more General story first starting with the
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internet in 1982 when we started Sun we bet on on the Internet only company to bet on the
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internet 1996 since you brought up Juniper the internet was growing but not yet clear the the Senior Management of
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every major TCO in the United States told me they would never adapt tcpip on for the internet and I said fine will
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build Juniper to build tcpip Cisco told me they would never do tcpip above what is probably your home home service today
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oc2 never um and so we built tpip why because we've seen the internet on an exponential and the flat part of
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the exponential looked very uninteresting and nobody believed in it we invest in Juniper it was a
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2500x return for us at Kleiner one of the largest returns in Venture at least when uh Wall Street journ J did a piece
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on the snap IPO of largest Venture returns ever but we believed in something and did that how it relates to
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open AI probably year 2000 I gave a interview with the New York Times it's my son just sent it to me so I remember
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it I said AI will be powerful enough we don't know when but it'll we'll have to redefine
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what it means to be human and I understand Steven Wolfram had some interesting comments in that
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area so happy to talk about 10 years ago I wrote two blogs the first one was called do we need doctors with a premise
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that AI would replace the expertise of doctors and let them do the things humans do really well so 20% doctor 80%
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AI is the thing I defined um and I wrote another blog called do we need teachers
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because the only way to scale education at an equal level for every kid was with
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AI that was 20 January of 2012 so about 12 years ago so four or five five years ago late 2018 is when I started talking
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to Sam the opportunity came up to do something with open a eye I said this is a clear B I couldn't predict when things
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will Emer how much capability will happen how fast but you didn't know need to know that
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whether it was in 3 years 5 years or 10 years I was pretty convinced it would be
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pretty phenomenal and there'd be practical applications along the way where it would have a large impact long
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before we got to AGI so we placed the back and we placed a long-term back you know this audience is going to hear from
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Bob mguard you know 5 years ago I played was a bet on Fusion for the same reason
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if we get it to work these are humongous returns big bats but reasonably high probability of success initially but
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very high payback and I was so convinced in open AI I placed twice uh our initial
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investment was twice the largest previous investment I'd made in 40 years in Venture Capital 2x the largest bet
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I'd ever placed initially in a company how did that go from nonprofit to for-profit and raise Venture money well
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you know those are details we don't understand but I would say the foll figure those out there are
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plenty of nonprofits in Europe that have for-profit arms right right it's a very good model to sustain
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and generate profit for a nonprofit to scale like I think the European model some of these examples are really really
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great Ikea Bosch they have very large nonprofit ownership and I think that's a very good model to scale I mean I just
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mentioned do we need doctors my son's building a primary care doctor AI my wife's doing a primary care or tutor
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AI as a nonprofit it really doesn't matter how you do it the question is how can you gather the resour resources to
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scale the social good you're tring to do whether with a doctor or with a tutor for every kid on the planet there's a
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lot of discussion about um how jobs might be displaced because of AI you've seen I guess three or four of these
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amazing um efficiency uh Cycles what's your take on that because this one does feel qualitatively different uh and it
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does seem to be moving at a faster pace so the speed at which AI is moving Ming uh and just the the Leaps and Bounds of
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how it's making people augmented you're saying 80% AI 20% doctor um what do you think this does to jobs and do you have
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those concerns of displacement that a lot of people seem to be concerned about I I think it's a genuine concern okay um
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the path to getting to that point so let me start with that 2025 years from now I
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think the need to work will disappear people will work because they want to work not because they need to
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work and nobody wants a job doing the same thing for 30 years on an assembly line at GM that there's a set of jobs
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nobody wants to do that we shouldn't really call jobs they're absolute treasury yeah so hopefully
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those disappear I love my job so 25 years from now Health permitting I'll still be doing the same thing like
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I'm 68 so uh you know and Warren Buffett's gone a lot longer than I have I'm very passionate about what I do I
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enjoy it so much I do it for free and I'll keep doing it and other people will there will be new jobs um what you
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call jobs or what people get paid for so is X Games popent a job I I don't know I
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don't call it a job but it is a passion that can pay um so I do think the nature of jobs
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would will disappear now societies will have the the transition from today to that vision of not needing to work if
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you don't want to will be very messy very political very uh I would say controversial and I
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think some countries will move much faster than others I I suspect let's take something
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I'm very hawkish on China they will take a tanaman square tactic to enforcing what they think is right for their
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society over a 25e period we will have a political process which I prefer to the
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Chinese style you like the debate over the tanks well debate always improves things but it also does slow down and
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certain societies may choose not to adapt these uh and I think the societies that do
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that will fall behind and I think that's a massive uh disadvantage for our political system we may choose not to do
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it we've done it before but we've also seen massive transition before agriculture was 50% of us employment in
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1900 by 1970 it was 4% so most jobs in that area the biggest area of employment got displaced we did manage the
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transition well cost went down and productivity went up yeah so I do think we will have to rethink so the one thing
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I would say is capitalism is by permission of democracy and it can be revoked that
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permission and I worry that the this messy transition to the vision I'm very excited about may cause
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us to to change systems I do think the nature of capitalism will be will have to change I'm a huge fan of capital
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capitalism I'm a capitalist but I do think the set of things you optimize for when economic efficiency isn't the only
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criteria will have to be increased so disparity is one that will be increased I first wrote a piece of 2014 in fores
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it was a long piece that say AI will cause great abundance great GDP growth great productivity growth all the things
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economists measure and increasing income disparity that was 2014 and I think I ended that to close this answer off with
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we will have to consider Ubi in some form and I do think that will be a solution but meaning for human beings
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will be the largest problem we face which was my followup which is if you give people Ubi do you have
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concerns of you know the idle mind and what happens we've seen in other states when 25% of young men maybe don't have
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jobs their minds wander and bad things happen and so what do you think the societal issues will be if we do offer
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Ubi um I think we will have issues but we will eliminate other issues you know there's pros and cons to everything it's
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weird very hard to predict how complex systems behave and it's very hard for me to sit
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here and say I have a clear vision of how that happens but I for one am addicted to learning I know other people
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addicted to producing music uh all of those are reasonable things for people to find meaning in or personal
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meaning yeah there's others like I said just want to perfect their participation
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in in a certain sport or I love X Games because wasn't even remotely considered a sport not that long ago uh so things
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passions will emerge and I think if people have very early in their life the ability to pursue passions I hope that
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adds the meaning human beings will need and in some sense that's what I was talking about in 2000 when I said we'll
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have to redefine what it means to be human your assembly line job won't Define you for your whole
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life that'd be a terrible thing yeah in the VK in the AI landscape just going back to that for a second um you have a
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lot of these big companies who seem to have been caught flat-footed so they're acting pretty aggressively I think even
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yesterday there was a a leak of something where meta trying to really superpower llama 2 and then create some
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high performance Cloud that they effectively want to give away um we talked about this a little bit on the
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Pod but the idea seem seems like the big companies want to Scorch the Earth on on
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the foundational model set then you have some other big companies that are working on Silicon so can you just walk
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us through in your mind how you've organized where the where the value is getting created where there'll be
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product value but no economic value etc etc yeah look uh going back to openai part of my interest in funding openai
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was when we looked at it when I looked at it there was two major centers of excellence in AI there was Google gole
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they had Deep Mind and Google brain but Google and then there was an effort at Biden and it was very worried the
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Chinese might win that uh I'm hawkish on China I have no trust there um and I loved Graham Allison's book uh destined
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for war I'm a complete believer in that thesis um but I thought it'd be valuable to
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create a third Center and that was part of the motivation in funding open eye I'm really glad meta is doing it and
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others are trying to do it and you know there's efforts in every country every country wants their National AI I think
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more competition especially in the set of countries subscribing to Western values is good and I think that will
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sort of but I would say the following almost all the efforts I have seen are very limited
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they're all trying to scale llms and you know I spend my time looking at what besides llm will
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play an important role I haven't seen one effort among the majors that isn't following the same model yeah more
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Nvidia gpus scale the parameters more data um instead of saying are there other methods so so I'll mention you
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know we made an investment in a symbolic logic idea would that be dramatically additive in in you know just like open a
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ey didn't look that interesting for 5 years ago 2018 late 18 is when we really uh made our decision to invest it got
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took a while to get organized but I'm saying what else would look like that in 2028 yeah you know
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would it be symbolic logic All In in anybody doing that probalistic programming is it completely otherwis
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like multi-agent systems is there are going to be other axes in which we will see progress said differently do you
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need to make sure there are other axes so that we we're not looking back a few years from now and there's just massive
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Cuda lock in and nothing can happen without one gatee keeper is that well the great thing about Venture and
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Venture capist is they like to play long bats yeah so I'll place all those long bats on alternative ways to learn yeah
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and not replace but add to llms I think is the more likely scenario though who knows yeah um but even among just if
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imagine llms do it all it's good that there's multiple plers and so more big companies pop up
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great uh I also do think governments will have their own efforts China of course has one but plenty of other
00:21:01
Rumblings of governments trying to put together an effort in my country tell us the and that's all good tell us
00:21:09
upleveling away from just AI but broadly speaking Venture give us the State of the Union of venture capital in
00:21:15
September 23 so let me give you a perspective I've been doing Venture for some 40
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years in that time I have not seen and people get surprised at this one example of a large
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Innovation that came from a large company or institution so the only thing you can do
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not one the the the only two examples I could find was in the early 70s which was if you go back 50 years when I was
00:21:52
Bank of America put debit and credit on a plastic card like that wasn't even a major Innovation but I'll give them that
00:22:01
but I couldn't think of examples like that apple with the iPhone maybe um that was Steve Jobs I think it was a Founder
00:22:09
Le I should have said founder Le Innovation okay got it is a more accurate description I like that you
00:22:16
know did General Motors do driver L cars or weo did uh would somebody at Avis do Uber would
00:22:28
somebody at Hilton do Airbnb right would would somebody and Elon speaking next but somebody at blacked Martin do SpaceX
00:22:39
or rocket lab we investors in rocket lab so I like it a little more um they do have a superior strategy but
00:22:48
SpaceX has done a great job uh but think think of every large social change is there a large company that play you
00:23:02
know the only thing somebody came up with was debt structur debt structuring that the bankers did uh and I
00:23:10
said they didn't take any risk right right no ination they took a risk with somebody else's money other people's
00:23:17
money easy to play with whether you're uh in finance or in government uh other people's money is easy uh but my idea is
00:23:26
innovation comes from group like this and I'm completely convinced I lost the original question but this is where
00:23:34
Innovation will come from on that yeah so any large area you'll be hearing from Bob mumar you
00:23:41
know four five years ago invested in Fusion now we may fail I think we are much more likely to succeed sitting here
00:23:49
today than fail but it's possible can you talk about that just while you're on Fusion that there we've got both Bob and
00:23:57
David from here helon tomorrow morning yeah and there's broadly call it six or some number of General architectural
00:24:04
approaches to solving the yeah there's six approaches a dozen companies I think it's well now there's 70 but yeah it's I
00:24:11
mean it's just ballooning but how do you think about the role that a commonwealth
00:24:16
or even an open AI I guess how big of a role does Capital play in getting there because what made what makes
00:24:23
Commonwealth different is how much Capital they've raised Billion Dollar Plus at this point open AI similar the
00:24:31
um the decision as an investor how much of it is predicated on this team or this
00:24:36
architecture let me tell you the Commonwealth story before Bob has a chance to tell you is he here by the way
00:24:41
to myad I'm sure he's here somewhere because I'm meeting him in half an hour okay
00:24:50
backstage U but here's the thing they may have raised a lot of money it took double double digigit Millions to handle
00:25:00
the single biggest risk in building the architecture right which was can you build a 20 Tesla magnet yeah the magnet
00:25:08
right and Bob and I had this discussion I said if Fusion doesn't work but you can
00:25:15
build a 20 Tesla magnet we got lots of interesting applications in nuclear medicine yeah you know a fusion reactor
00:25:23
is a particle accelerator that technical breakthrough we can pivot somewhere else
00:25:27
yeah nuclear Med MRI machines lots of areas so let's go build with double digit Millions which is not a huge
00:25:34
amount in the context of the upside of maybe a bigger upside than the 2500x Juniper had if you solve the fusion
00:25:43
problem there's still a 10x upside if you just solve the MRI machine problem so you're thinking of probabilities well
00:25:51
in today we not but but when we stored it that was clearly to look at off RPS right like where else could we go if we
00:26:00
only had double digit Millions we didn't we built the magnet if we didn't build the magnet we failed that's rent of
00:26:06
capital so how do you know that that bet that investment at this point is still a
00:26:11
good investment or you keep putting more capital in if there's now six competing
00:26:15
architectures any one of which could have their own breakthrough that could yield better economics so we've
00:26:20
continued to invest in it mostly because I think Bob's just a phenomenal CEO and if any body can make this happen
00:26:29
and the world needs it to happen Bob can but I'm also optimistic and as you know we invested in Sam too he invested
00:26:37
in helon I think there's more than one approach that could be successful in fact i' guess 15 years from now we'll be
00:26:45
looking at one more than one company that's successful Sak you had a question I wanted to make sure you got to ask it
00:26:50
well let's let V finish that that point I thought it was finished yeah anything else so my view is large problems like
00:26:59
that yeah you'd think G would solve not a chance not a chance right seens not a chance um you know you take any of these
00:27:09
one of my favorite you take large problems one of my biggest beefs is the traffic in cities I actually think we're
00:27:17
very much on track to replace most cars in most cities in 25 years how by building a different kind of public
00:27:26
transit system anybody want to invest in it I'm really excited about it um you know we went the way of autonomous
00:27:36
cars for consumers or taxis aut autonomous cars in public transit will increase through the only thing fixed in
00:27:49
cities is Lane wdth you have a road certain size you don't destroy buildings on both sides so if you can increase
00:27:57
passenger per hour through it and by the way bicycles don't we love bicycles but
00:28:02
they don't scooters don't public transit autonomously driven in small parts will make public transit
00:28:12
on demand so unscheduled on demand any time of the day or night uh and point to point you don't stop for anybody else to
00:28:21
get up it's a beautiful way to do change cities and I think it'll happen there's
00:28:27
no question about it so like uber pool but with a larger Mini Bus type format no no no you don't want to go to mini
00:28:33
bus because then you have to stop for other people to get out so just if it's two or four person Vehicles it's faster
00:28:41
than your private car it doesn't stop at traffic lights it's on demand you don't
00:28:46
have to park it I could go on and on uh I don't want to spend too much time on one particular idea but all I'm saying
00:28:54
is whether it's Fusion or public transit and we're doing 3D printed buildings uh
00:29:01
another one of my favorites is a new and you were asking about this a music model to produce music that is not
00:29:09
trained on any YouTube or public music yeah so completely IP free of any constraints like I'm really excited
00:29:18
about little outfit in Australia and they've just um produced a released a product that would be the mid Journey
00:29:27
for music really exciting what's your favorite genre of music what do you like to I I'm not a huge music fan to be
00:29:35
honest I Adit it but you know I I love a great challenge when this entrepreneur came to me and said hey in some period
00:29:44
of time say 10 years and this was four or five years ago and long before AI was a big thing he said I want to produce a
00:29:53
music a song a top 10 music song Untouched by a human I said I love a challenge like that let's go it
00:30:02
literally took me half an hour to say I in no diligence didn't need all that David yeah I think where tth was going
00:30:11
to go a minute ago about the state of the union and VC is that we talk a lot on the pot about the fact that we just
00:30:17
been through an asset bubble that popped uh last year yeah and it you know really
00:30:22
inflated during coid with all the money printing that went on and it may have been inflating before that with these
00:30:27
Zer policies going back I don't know 15 years um I guess my question to you is how much fakeness do you think that
00:30:35
created in the ecosystem um you know or is there any way to even quantify it I mean I think we see now that the size of
00:30:43
venture funds is Contracting that new funds are going to be smaller probably there's a lot of VCS who shouldn't even
00:30:49
be in business I think you'll be happy about that um you know we've estimated on the Pod there's 1400 unicorns right
00:30:56
now we've tried to sort ort of get all are half of them fake um I guess my question to you is how much did this
00:31:03
asset bubble sort of inflate everything in VC and where do you think it stands right now you know it inflated things a
00:31:11
lot in certain areas and it deflated things a lot in certain areas but let me give you two analogies to understand
00:31:19
this you know investors only and there's a fair number of investors I hear here only care about two emotions fear and
00:31:25
greed and they bounce between the two and there's nothing in the middle and so the key to being a good investor is
00:31:34
staying focused on the long term in the middle so anytime you get a hype cycle you'll get inflation and then you will
00:31:43
get deflation but let me ask you the following question 1998 there was a do com bubble or
00:31:51
bust tell me and there was clearly a change in Wall Street prices and value valuations and all that there was
00:31:59
absolutely no bust in the amount of internet traffic so if you look at internet traffic you can't tell when the dot bust
00:32:09
happened so I'm saying the reality of using the internet didn't change just because people had inflated values and
00:32:16
then deflated them that's just a fear reaction and a grade reaction same thing happened with the original bubble in the
00:32:23
1830s in England if you got the right to build the railroad between two cities you could offer scripts on the market
00:32:31
big bubble then a big collapse but more railroad was built in the 10 years after
00:32:38
the bubble collapsed in England in the 1830s than before my point is the reality of the underlying business if
00:32:46
you're adding value does not change that much it can accelerate a little bit or slow down because less resources
00:32:53
available but fundamentals is a good way way to invest sort of the Warren Buffet
00:32:59
method not the shortterm hey he's valuing it twice so let me pay up and then you'll pay twice as much as that or
00:33:08
soft M will uh later uh um I think I think it's a question of you can't time the market you as long as
00:33:19
you know that this is a an investable technology an investable Trend timing what price you're coming in at I mean
00:33:26
this is an old ad in in Market you know it doesn't really matter what price you're coming at it you know in
00:33:31
inflationary times you pay a little bit more but you get less dilution later because other people are investing and
00:33:40
then when it gets uh goes into a deflationary cycle you just have to learn to respond quickly and good
00:33:47
investors will help guide entrepreneurs correctly through all those phases we've
00:33:52
seen a lot of that in climate investing yeah for sure you know very low valuations look when we invested in
00:33:59
impossible Foods it was a $3 million valuation pre money crazy idea crazy idea nobody thought plant proteins
00:34:08
wasn't a word um another one of my favorite projects is replace soy as a protein Source on this planet and I
00:34:16
think we are well on our way to do that right I'm very excited but at that level
00:34:22
it doesn't matter whether valuation in the end goes up or down by a factor of two it doesn't really matter if you're
00:34:30
adding fundamental value and long-term things but I just want I know that your long-term view is critical to making
00:34:37
Silicon Valley work I think that we all kind of appreciate your leadership your support your mentorship and um and the
00:34:44
fact that you're willing to make those big bets in very low probability outcomes but if they work the return is
00:34:51
so much more um than that that that multiple um that ratio that you're getting and it matters so much I I just
00:34:58
want to add it's just inspiring how much you share with all of us who are behind
00:35:02
you and how much we've all learned from you and you've I didn't mention it but you've take a lot of time for jamath
00:35:07
you've taken time for me in my career and I I just think it's like a great gift we end I can end with a quick story
00:35:13
I when I when IED we really do have to jump I emailed I I mailed paper mailed been trying 40 or 50 people to try to
00:35:21
get a job in VC in 2000 the only single person sent me an handwritten rejection letter VK
00:35:29
hey give it up thank you everybody [ __ ] yeah another stand wow thank you thank
00:35:38
you sir apprciate great [Music] great let your winners [Music] ride and instead we open sources to the fans
00:36:00
and they've just gone crazy with [Music] it Bes my dog taking driveway man we should all just get a room and
00:36:22
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension we just need to release
00:36:28
[Music] some we need to get [Music] mer