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hey everybody hey everybody welcome to another
all-in podcast we just got the show notes and i'm
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ripping them up because the president has the
rona we knew this was a possibility we had an
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incredible docket brewing but as fate loves irony
we found out on wednesday night i believe just
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in a brief timeline here wednesday night uh hope
hicks is a personal assistant uh got the rona and
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then of course um president trump announced late
last night that he in fact had the rona and that
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his uh wife melania also had the coronavirus
so with us today to discuss all things tech
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politics and coronavirus david friedberg david
sachs and bestie c chamoth paulie hoppatia
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are with us uh i guess maybe we'll just drop it
right to you freedberg you you are our um science
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kid here in the class uh what is when we look at
the president's um physique he's clinically obese
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technically i'm not saying that to be cruel
but he's a 74 year old who's clinically obese
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and snorts adderall we don't know that that's
just a claim um but seriously what what is the
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prognosis here and then my i understand he's now
got a experimental treatment was just announced an
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hour ago uh the taping of this on friday afternoon
and of course we wish them all the greatest speedy
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recovery et cetera but let's get right let's
get into the facts here i think the the overall
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mortality rate for um someone of his age is then
call it the two to four percent range right and
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for someone with with you know he's not known to
have diabetes or high blood pressure but generally
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you can kind of say there's some risk factors
may be associated um so a couple points but the
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reality is the treatment that he got is one that's
not available to the public and is effectively
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like creating these uh you know uh taking these
antibodies to the coronavirus and he got a eight
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grams of this immunoglobulin therapy um that is
basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate
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the virus and they're not um widely available
they're not publicly available these treatments
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but uh you know uh based on the early trials and
the general experience with using synthetic and
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you know polyclonal antibodies for
uh infectious uh disease like this it's pretty effective and he should kind of uh
you know recover pretty quickly i would imagine so
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him dying would basically be a two-out or
him getting this special treatment makes it a
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a one outer if we were talking about this in
poker terms uh chamath when you when you look
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at this turn of events and you saw the news what
was your first thought um that it's now basically
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a hundred percent guaranteed that we will have all
of the most transparent data about coronavirus um
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soon so for example you know we we've been
in this position where we've been debating
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hydroxychloroquine we've been debating these um
you know all of these different uh regimens um and
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the reality is the president of the united states
if he doesn't get the absolute top-notch care
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um we're all in some ways [ __ ] so it's it's
probably likely that he's going to get the thing
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that folks know to work and then it'll be hard
for everybody else to not want to ask for that and
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then it's going to be even harder for everybody
to then not get some version of it and so
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i think probably we're going to de-escalate a
little bit of mass stuff of testing stuff of you
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know what the right course of care is and you know
frankly i'll be honest with you i hope you know i
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i wouldn't vote for him but i hope he's well um
i don't want anything to happen to the guy um
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and i hope that he recovers and it you know he
kicks it in the ass and that um whatever he took
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to get better everybody else can get it too all
right sax coming around the horn here talking
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about the political ramifications of this you
were feeling that uh trump was likely to lose
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uh but here we are with the october surprise
and i hate to make this uh handicapping of the
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election but this certainly is gonna have some
impact so with your rain man mind and when you
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go through this deck of cards here what does your
brain how do you assess this as uh the rain man
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is this un going to be a net positive for
his election um results a negative neutral
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handicap this for us in your mind you
must be thinking through this and and again disclaimers we all want him to get better
nobody wishes him out i'm sure some people do but
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i'm saying i'm seeing a lot of uh glee frankly on
on twitter yeah a lot of people saying i told you
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so or karma's a [ __ ] or something like that yeah
um you know sort of implying that trump getting
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this was was a moral failing you know um and uh
so you know certainly a lot of people are kind
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of reveling in it um i think he was certainly
careless i mean he didn't wear masks he said
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he didn't like to wear a mask so well i mean do
you wear a mask inside your house no but if i was
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in walking around at a a debate or something like
that if i was on an airplane with 20 people yeah i
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would wear a mask actually i mean you know there
were certainly a lot of precautions around the
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president i mean more than most people i mean any
of us could get it from anybody yeah you know um
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if you know our wife happens to go out to meet a
friend for lunch or something like that and then
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brings it back so there's almost no amount of
carefulness you can do to completely avoid this
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unless you're willing to kind of lock yourself
alone somewhere um so i just you know this idea
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that somehow getting cove is a moral failing
is is what i would take issue with it's not um
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it's not altogether unlike the crazy things that
um the religious right was saying in the 1980s
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like you know about aids like when you know
jerry falwell said it was god's punishment
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or something like that trying to imply that the
gay plague i mean let's just call it what it is
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they basically said they implied somehow that this
was um you know some sort of uh just comeuppance
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you know or something like a retribution from god
contribution exactly exactly and and you know the
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virus doesn't know who it's infecting obviously
it doesn't target sinners or whatever and so
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i just think that um you know this all this this
sort of gleeful um sort of blaming us going around
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um is is inappropriate and i think it could
really backfire if um if trump rapidly gets
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better i mean if trump is better in say a week
um and is hitting the campaign trail again you
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know what what previously will have appeared to be
a moral failing could it could now be argued would
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be a moral strength since he you know overcame
it so easily and um you know so i think that
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if if he rapidly recovers from this and hits the
campaign trail again it's going to make him look
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strong i think that if he has a hard time with the
virus if it's innervating the way that i think it
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took out boris johnson i mean i've heard british
commentators say that boris johnson's just not
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not even the same doesn't have the same level
of energy even now than he did behind before
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the virus then i would think he could really hurt
trump in the last you know this campaign look we
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i think we all know people um i'm sure you guys do
i do who have gone through this and they all say
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the same thing which is this thing really sucks
now there are all these people that say oh it's
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like dancing on tulips or daffodils i've never
encountered a single person like that i see that
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um i see that maybe on twitter or a friend of a
friend but all of my friends who've gotten it they
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have really struggled through it some of these
people are older some of these people are younger
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some of these people are healthy some of these
people are not and consistently they say the
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same thing which is that there's a couple of days
where it literally feels like your chest is being
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uh pounded inside you you can't move
you're just in pain and then afterwards the aftermath is you're at you know 50 60 70
percent of your lung capacity like it it does
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for a couple of weeks i mean doc says a friend of
ours and he was very public with his experience
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he tried to avoid it as best he could he got
hit with it he got hit hard and he said he felt
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like he was gonna die it was the worst thing he's
ever experienced i i have friends that that still
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complain two three four months after the fact that
they're at 50 60 of cardiovascular capacity and
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you know these these people that i that i'm
specifically thinking about were really healthy
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going into coronavirus and so i i don't know i
just think it's something none of us want um i
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don't think you would want to wish this on anybody
of course not yet you know especially frankly the
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president of the united states has a role um
and so i think folks just need to sort of like
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class up here um and hope that we figure out
that he a gets the best care and then b we all
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know what it is and then c that we can get access
to it too that's that's i honestly i think that's
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all we should be wishing did you see did you see
the letter they published and what he's getting
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so they go ahead and read it go ahead and read
the free breakfast the doc the doctor published
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it was not too long ago right jason i saw it
on youtube it just happened like an hour ago i
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tweeted it yesterday so he got he got eight grams
of polyclonal antibodies this is the regeneron
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formulation so basically they've isolated the
antibodies that neutralize coronavirus that
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patients have presented in their body and then
they use recombinant dna technology to produce
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those antibodies synthetically so it's a bunch of
antibody proteins and then they turn it into an
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injection into a formula that they can put in your
body and you now have effectively neutralizing
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antibodies so they gave him eight grams which is
a pretty high dose and it gets it you know goes in
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intravenously you can have sometimes an allergic
reaction to that but it seems like he was fine
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from that because they didn't announce an allergic
reaction and then uh you know the the antibodies
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are now in his bloodstream and they bind to
the virus so any virus that's floating around
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immediately gets wiped out it gets eliminated
from the body so theoretically this is the way
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we should treat all infectious diseases that's
right and i do think that by the way i do and
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i've written about this i think that is the future
of infectious disease is we're all going to get a
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polyclonal cocktail every year instead of getting
a flu shot you get a bunch of antibodies to
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all the new stuff that's emerging and it wipes
out this david just think about this there was
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so much raging debate that got politicized between
the left between the right between different folks
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of people who believed in different things around
what the right course of care was there was no
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single source of truth i'll just say this again
when you treat the president of the united states
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and he gets better that is canonical single
source of truth i'm sorry but there can be
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no debate after that that the smartest people
with the access to all of the research i mean
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let's be clear you don't think a call went out
last night before they deployed the nuclear
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warhead stuff to all of the um r d labs and all
the big pharma companies and said what do you got
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and the answer came back at the top of the ticket
was this regeneron cocktail yeah they had they
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definitely have made that call before to prep for
this but yeah totally agree now um when you say
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it highlights what the future of infectious
disease treatment is and should be which is
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that all of us should be getting a booster shot
every year of synthetically produced antibodies
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uh that will counteract any new infectious disease
floating around in the world and we're getting to
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the point in the next 10 15 years that that should
be reality for everyone yeah it highlights that
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but it also highlights that in the absence of
the most powerful man in the world getting the
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sickness that we're all gonna basically [ __ ] and
point fingers about what the right solution is and
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so it can't be the case that the next time there's
a crazy illness that's floating around in society
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we need to go and target you know five or six of
the leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus this plus
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that beyonce heaven forbid you know what i mean
like this is crazy yeah this can't this can't
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be how we find single source of truth yeah well
i think if i think politically speaking i think
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there's a lot of upside here for trump if he does
get better in a week i mean if these polyclonal
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antibodies work then and he emerges from the
white house you know if it is a fiddle in a week
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he's going to say the cure is here you know i
was right you don't even need a vaccine the cure
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is here it's over and um and all the i told you
so's might might flip around would that be from
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the truth david well if the police anybody's work
i mean then it's just a matter of scaling them
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can it be scale freeberg is this easily scalable
yes um but by the way i'll just point out the
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challenge with this is a lot of people uh north
of 15 will have uh because antibodies remember
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they're a protein and if your cells didn't make
that protein they look like a foreign protein when
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they show up in your body and so very often when
you get a foreign antibody treatment like this you
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will have some sort of allergic reaction because
your body will react and attack that protein and
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so it's not as simple as just saying hey we should
just scale this up and give it to everyone because
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the clinical trials that are going on with it are
to figure out what percentage of people what's the
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right way to treat people what's the right way to
protect them from anaphylactic shock all that sort
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of stuff that comes along with this sort of thing
so it's not that simple we're making it out but
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you you would admit that many of those questions
the answer the answers to many of those questions
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must have been well in hand because there's just
zero way oh regeneron's been running these trials
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since march 100 yeah 100 that's right they what
they i i can tell you for sure when trump got this
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treatment i guarantee they gave him benadryl and
they gave him um a steroid shot and they probably
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gave him a little bit of cortisone or they had
it on the side because that's kind of like the
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standard sort of regimen you would use when you
get this sort of um you know synthesized or or
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convalescent plasma type treatment and uh you
know he comes out of this thing on the other
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end and he's fine um but uh but but that treatment
regimen is required so you know you sit down in an
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id booth and you get a [ __ ] id and you get shots
to go along with it so it's not as simple as just
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shipping it out to everyone's home and giving them
that treatment you know and only am i correct that
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only 300 or so people have gotten this to date
is that correct with the trial i don't know the
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answer to that i know that convalescent plasma
which is call it the poor man's version of this
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treatment which is instead of synthesizing the
antibodies you're taking the actual antibodies
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from other people that have had coveted and
recovered you're isolating those antibodies
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and you're injecting them in other people's
bodies so that is what convalescent plasma is
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it is effectively a soup of all the antibodies
from recovered patients polyclonal antibodies
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is the synthesized version of those isolated
antibodies where we use fermentation systems
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and bioengineered cells to make those antibodies
then we isolate them and we and we use it is there
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any chance that the president would make a bad
decision here because he would get to dictate
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his treatment as a powerful person like steve jobs
did tragically i saw a doctor saying this is one
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of the problems with powerful people is that they
actually can you know make a bad decision because
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doctors will let them have too much of a saying
is that possible in this situation you think
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i think the answer is no because they didn't put
out a letter saying he got bleach and uv light in
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his face so i think he's fine so he didn't go with
his own treatment protocol and and also you're
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going to have chemo no i was just gonna say and
also you know it it eliminated all of the other
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less nonsensical but equally sort of question mark
treatments and so you know i think they went right
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to the answer which would only have been really
possible if the best docs basically said this is
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what we're doing and i think david mentioned this
earlier that it had been decided well in advance
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i think that's a good insight yeah there's
a there's a protocol that was written down
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months ago vetted and re-vetted probably
every week or every month as they get as they got more data and so the minute it
happened there was nothing to talk about and
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and i suspect that that is probably what
happened because there is no way you'd want to be
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you know it's kind of like being a pilot like
you follow a systematic set of rules to deal with
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the overwhelming majority of boundary conditions
and this seemed like a pretty obvious boundary
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condition you would have wanted to
have a protocol for well in advance so okay so i want to just do one handicapping here
sax i'll have you take this one off the bat
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because this was the chatter on twitter number one
uh the first two i think are just crazy conspiracy
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there is he got it on purpose or he's lying put
those aside for a second you can answer them if
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you want to but the third one is hey what happens
if he's incapacitated and cannot run or god forbid
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he died uh and so if he's on a ventilator
if he cannot leave the hospital he's an icd
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it's not even a question the 25th amendment
deals with that yeah yeah so it goes to pence
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and if pence cannot do it for whatever reason
but he's i think he's okay i was actually going
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to refer to the election though what happens
to the election if in the next three four
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weeks he's in icu what happens then oh that
i don't know well that's what i was trying
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to make a change to his ballot if they wanted
to but i think if he's in the icu he stays on
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the ballot so we would literally have an election
with him on a ventilator or him i mean if he was
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unconscious could he could people still go vote
for him i think this is a possibility i think
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these are very low probability outcomes i think
the most i think the most likely outcome here
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is that because he's got the best care um he's
you know it's it's probably like at least 50
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that this is over for him in about a week um and
it redounds to his political advantage i think
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there's probably a 40 chance that you know he's
got more like a three or four week case which i
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think would hurt him because he's gonna be able to
campaign and then there's maybe like a five or ten
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percent chance of something more serious i wonder
if he's got if he even if he recovers in a week
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the odds are pretty high that he'll have you
know a long tail of fatigue right and so if he
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he doesn't change his if he changes his strategy
and and just does things remotely and whatnot
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doesn't do rallies anymore um you know and
and he he doesn't really come out and say
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he's fatigued but but there's this behavioral
change does that change things do you think
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i think he needs to be able to campaign and hold
these rallies i think that's an essential part
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of his uh election strategy but also it's always
been his way of you know going over the heads of
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the media that hates him and talking directly to
people and rallying his base and field testing his
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ideas there was that period when during lockdowns
when he just stopped doing rallies for several
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months and it really felt like he was adrift um
so yeah i think if he can't do rallies i think
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you know that could easily swing the election
a couple of points and cause him to lose
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i think saxipoo's 100 right i was in indiana last
week and uh there were a bunch of folks in the
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neighborhood where i was staying and i i was
walking my dog and they were walking their
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dogs we were all kind of walking side by side and
they all were ramping up to go to a trump rally
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they were super excited about this this moment to
go hear what he has to say they were they sounded
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like they were kind of in this undecided camp
but they wanted to go to the rally to hear what
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he had to say and kind of experience that trump
moment um it was a real kind of ground level um
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i think um proof point for your uh for your
statement around like you know people really
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need to feel and because that's a big part of
his uh his kind of mo is that groundless it is
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and i think it was it was one of the reasons why
his um no one saw his election coming in 2016
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is if you turned on the tv and just listened
to the commentators i mean aside from maybe fox
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it seemed like everyone just hated him but if
you attended the rallies you would see that he
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was reaching a lot of people tens of thousands
of people at each event and he was flying around
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doing three events a day uh tremendously energetic
just um so yeah i think it's it would hurt him a
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lot um but look if he's back on the stump a week
from now you're probably gonna see all sorts of
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people on the right saying you know i told you
so and god healed him and you know he must be the
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chosen one or you know who we we we could be uh we
could be seeing a weekend at bernie's moment here
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even if he's just tired they'll prop him up on a
big stick and hold him up in front of the crowds
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and then put him back in the airplane and fly him
back home i think i'll know if he's if he's too
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tired because you know he gets up there and he
talks for like an hour and a half i mean right
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he's done two or three yeah it's like
an hour and a half is short for him yeah so is it possible we could be talking about
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trump having less energy than biden in a debate
which i think is a good segue here are there gonna
00:20:44
be two more presidential debates and what was our
take on the absolutely embarrassing [ __ ] show
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that we saw on tuesday night which was supposed
to be the topic today that we're going to lead
00:20:54
off which was the debate which seems unimportant
now it feels like a year ago how do you expect us
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to comment on something that happened so long
ago it was 72 hours ago i mean come on people
00:21:06
oh my god it feels like it's like years 2020
is so exhausting i think i've aged 30 years
00:21:12
in one year it's like three decades that debate
that debate was just a dumpster fire um you know
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the way that i thought about it was wrong
yeah not true i mean imagine no no i agree
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it was a disaster for trump it was a disaster
for trump go ahead sacks explain because he's
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your boy um are you now not going to vote for him
after that just to clarify for the audience uh i'm
00:21:37
not i'm not pro-trump i'm just just voting for him
i'm anti-hysteria i always support the side that
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seems least hysterical to me at any given time
did you vote for trump last election yes or no
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or would you be comfortable even saying that
i think you'd be surprised if i told you who i
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voted for really but okay so on to the debate um i
think both biden and trap biden and trump both had
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a trap to avoid i think biden's trap was appearing
senile i think trump's trap was appearing unhinged
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i would say that biden avoided his trap and
trump did not um by constantly attacking biden
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interrupting him uh it was counterproductive
i mean what you want to do with biden is let
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the man talk he's a gaff machine you know let
him talk let him say things that will get him
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in trouble instead by constantly interrupting him
trump kind of let him off the hook and um so it's
00:22:27
now look i mean both of their bases uh you know
it's like it's like a sporting event there's gonna
00:22:32
root for the side they they already came to you
know to support uh but i don't think trump helped
00:22:37
himself with a few percent of independents who
are still out there you know looking to make a
00:22:41
decision i think you're totally right it was um
it was really surprising because if he had just
00:22:47
left him to his own devices you would have let it
play out but i thought biden to be honest there
00:22:51
were some moments he was fabulous so i thought he
was excellent on race i thought he was incredible
00:22:58
in the moment that he basically stood up to
trump about his son hunter and he looks in
00:23:03
the camera and he basically says look i love my
son my son's had troubles and i support i mean
00:23:09
amazing and so like in those moments it's
so hard to not see that guy as presidential
00:23:16
and i don't mean like it's easy for democrats
or people that are voting for him like me but
00:23:21
i think if you're a republican you got to look
at that guy and say man that is a decent dude
00:23:28
he did in certain key moments he did fabulously
well and in other moments where there were traps
00:23:34
he actually got billed up because trump kept
interrupting and joe was smart enough to stop
00:23:38
talking so that it amplified the sense that
trump was interrupting him trump to me seemed
00:23:43
pathetic and scared that was my like he's scared
of losing he felt like a bully who had been like
00:23:49
laughed at by the whole class like nobody
takes him seriously like the moderator
00:23:54
what's his name um chris wallace chris
wallace the moderator was kind of like what what are you doing sir please i think
chris wallace i mean i know people were
00:24:02
critical of him but chris wallace is like sir
please just trying to appeal to like basic
00:24:07
decency and trump just not getting it me trump
looks so bad it's just i think confirmed with
00:24:14
people say the demographic he has to win is
white women in a lot of these swing states
00:24:18
i mean i don't think women want to vote
i'm not going to speak for women here but
00:24:22
my understanding is women don't like guys
like that who interrupt constantly and who are
00:24:26
belligerent and badgering and they kind of like
a great dad who defended to your point chamoth
00:24:32
you know his son and said hey listen
my son's got problems my other son died i really think i really think and i and i and
we talked about this a little bit before but
00:24:41
the surface area in terms of policy between
the republicans and the democrats now
00:24:47
are virtually non-existent so look if you
unpack foreign policy they both hate russia
00:24:55
they both hate china they both need india and the
middle east is irrelevant because we're moving
00:25:00
to a carbon neutral alternative energy world
they also don't need russia as an example so
00:25:07
all of this stuff that used to matter before
in so much of the foreign policy that dictated
00:25:11
how americans would fight wars spend money you
know incite democracy protect certain leaders
00:25:17
it's all out the window and they both think
about it the same way because the surface area
00:25:22
is so uh similar that's not what about what
about the economy so number two economically
00:25:30
they're so similar because they both want to spend
trillions of dollars just under a different label
00:25:35
you know one is sort of under a green new deal
and the other is called an infrastructure bill
00:25:38
or whatever it is and then number three they will
both have the same federal reserve that is tied to
00:25:44
the hip of treasury who has already committed
to be trillions of dollars a year in hawk
00:25:49
backing up all the debt that basically exists and
so if you put all these things together it's a
00:25:55
popularity contest and this is why i think joe
biden has an advantage because in a popularity
00:25:59
contest where you're just picking the figure that
you would you know either have a beer with or feel
00:26:04
the most comfortable with there's an element of
this which is like it's just a decent human being
00:26:08
it's easier for biden to get that across than
it is for trump and when trump behaves that way
00:26:14
it just violates some simple rules of decency
like they were in the debate against hillary
00:26:19
clinton he didn't act this way and he was more
um uh he it's it was like watching like a show
00:26:27
like you were kind of like tuning in to see um
what the theatrics would be or in the debates
00:26:33
in the primaries in 2016 against the republicans
it was theatrical here it was just it was it was
00:26:40
just kind of not it was it was pretty sex in that
way sax you think the democrats put up the right
00:26:45
candidate because if you did put up elizabeth
warren if you did put up a bernie sanders or god
00:26:49
forbid both of them at the same time it would be
a very stark contrast you would have the socialist
00:26:54
ticket that wants to you know ban the billionaires
and stop capitalism and kneecap it and uh spend a
00:27:01
bunch of money uh on redistribution of wealth and
here biden doesn't he's never said redistribution
00:27:07
of wealth he's never said ban the billionaires
he's pro-capitalism feels like a safer bet to the
00:27:12
majority of americans did they did the democrats
actually do a good job putting biden up there
00:27:16
i think so um i think he is the most now that we
know he's not senile i mean i think there was some
00:27:22
real question about that going into the debate
i think he proved in that debate that he's not
00:27:26
um and you know he's always kind of had the
decency card that jamal talks about um now that we
00:27:31
know he's not senile i think he he's he is the the
democrats most electable candidate because he is
00:27:38
more centrist than certainly an elizabeth warren
or some of the other candidates that you mentioned
00:27:44
elizabeth warren would have moved the the election
to be about substance and if this in many ways
00:27:51
strategically no but think about this if you
basically converge on roughly the same strategy
00:27:56
with different labels you make the election
one of style and there are a lot of people who
00:28:03
really want decency back in the presidency more so
than they want anything else because they already
00:28:09
come into the election with a level of skepticism
that policy a won't change that fast and b to the
00:28:15
extent it changes doesn't affect them and so you
know for years we've been electing people we like
00:28:20
and this is probably the most extreme test of that
idea i think i think there was like i mean like if
00:28:26
you think about that debate you could probably
simplify it down into the audience being part of
00:28:30
three camps they either know who they're voting
for trump they know who they're voting for biden
00:28:35
and then some folks who are
kind of maybe they're changeable and for the folks that are changeable there's a
diversity of objectives right there are some folks
00:28:44
who care about the decency some folks who care
about policy but at the end of the day i think
00:28:48
um you you go into this debate with an
expectation of trump and an expectation of biden
00:28:54
and i would say that trump was flat to down
relative to expectation and biden was flat to up
00:29:01
and so um that's where i would kind of give
the the the ticker to and sorry i don't want
00:29:07
to interrupt but i just want to read you this
headline president trump will be admitted to
00:29:10
walter reed medical center on friday uh for a few
days yeah i read that and that hold on a second
00:29:19
well his doctor said it's because they're out of
an abundance of caution they just want to have him
00:29:24
in a place where he can be treated if and
as he needs it that maybe you buy that
00:29:27
a cover story i think that look if you don't buy
that i think he's in trouble uh jason that's that
00:29:32
it is it is very strange when you get a treatment
when when you get a treatment like he got today
00:29:38
you know eight grams of uh immunoglobulin therapy
like that it sucks uh i've had this treatment
00:29:45
i've had uh immunoglobulin therapy before and you
get knocked out you you're on all these steroids
00:29:50
you're on all this anti-allergy stuff you are a
mess for a day or two and you know you want to
00:29:57
get like ivs and stuff that they give you all
sorts of stuff to go with it i got to imagine
00:30:01
that after getting that therapy he's going to need
to be in some degree of care and i would imagine
00:30:06
it's probably better to just do that around
doctors and with all the equipment than trying
00:30:09
to you know kind of bring everything into the
white house so i don't read it as negatively but
00:30:14
um well i mean do you do you think it could
be like an anaphylactic you know you might be
00:30:20
having some reaction yeah totally like i said
a large percentage of people that get these
00:30:26
antibody therapies have um some sort of allergic
response it's all the way from anaphylactic to
00:30:31
hey i'm having my throat's closing hey i feel i'm
getting flushed i'm getting a fever there's all
00:30:36
sorts of ways that this can kind of present so the
the world is changing so fast that we can't even
00:30:40
complete a podcast without it being obsolete can
i tell you one other thing um what did you guys
00:30:45
think about the fact this is a little morbid so
you can we can choose not to talk about it but
00:30:50
the stock market basically did nothing
today on the news that the most important
00:30:55
person in the free world theoretically um
i think you just answered your own question
00:31:02
i could chime in on this one i don't think that
people perceive that trump is good or bad uh for
00:31:07
the economy either way and that the economy is
separated now from politics because they think
00:31:11
biden or trump are going to have the same policies
which you said before they have the same policies
00:31:15
so why does it matter if trump were to tragically
die it would not make a difference in the american
00:31:21
economy it's not going to affect people buying
iphones it might shake people psychologically
00:31:24
but i don't think in a massive way because he's
almost out of office so i think it's all baked in
00:31:29
that's why the market did join what do you think
i want to disagree slightly with the idea this
00:31:33
election doesn't matter um i think it will matter
a lot if uh the democrats win the senate as well
00:31:40
as the presidency because then they will have one
party control and they can pass much legislation
00:31:44
as they want and i think a lot of things will get
signed and i think the biden presidency could be
00:31:50
very consequential at least for two years um while
all this legislation has passed even if you know
00:31:56
he's not you know out in front saying very much um
i mean the significance will be in the in the pen
00:32:02
to sign the legislation if the republicans hold
on to the senate but biden wins the presidency
00:32:08
i agree with you that it's not going to be a
tremendously consequential election because we'll
00:32:13
have gridlock and divided government again and so
i think a lot hinges on whether biden wins with or
00:32:20
without the senate i i don't disagree with you the
only thing that i will say is that i think that
00:32:26
biden will drag the country especially if
it's a you know up and down democratic ticket
00:32:33
back to the 80s and 90s more to the sort of the
george baker school of diplomacy and governance
00:32:40
and i think that if i and i don't know him
to know this but i think that if he really
00:32:45
were to have a legacy i'm susp i i would suspect
that part of again because he's mentioned that
00:32:52
you know why did he run he said the pivotal
moment was like charlottesville and trump's
00:32:56
reaction to charlottesville i think biden
is really moored by this concept of decency
00:33:01
and i think that if if he were there
and he thought to himself i'm going to be here for four years because that's the
right responsible thing to do but no more
00:33:09
um i don't think that you're gonna see a bunch
of crazy legislation pass i think biden's gonna
00:33:13
say guys this is what i expect to do by the way
did you because and i and i think i would bet on
00:33:18
that because of what he said at the beginning of
the debate he's like uh i am the democratic party
00:33:24
i don't know if you guys remember that yeah i do
remember that that was incredible that was so that
00:33:28
was a that was a very darth sidious emperor move
when he said no no no he was i think he was trying
00:33:35
to basically say like firewall the extra the far
left or the far left the socialist left and say
00:33:41
that rhetoric is not what i was elected on i was
elected on my platform i am the party this is what
00:33:48
i believe and everybody else will have to toe the
line and by the way in the end that's not such a
00:33:54
bad thing yeah it's amazing i i i agree i think
that that was a really important moment for him
00:34:00
is for him to say look i'm in charge here because
the republicans have been making the argument that
00:34:04
he's a trojan horse for all these like far left
elements aoc aoc and so it was very it was very
00:34:10
important to come forward and say no i'm i'm the
one leading this ticket now that being said and i
00:34:16
think it would be a great thing for the country if
biden brought the democratic party back to more of
00:34:21
a you know bill clinton to you know obama type
centrism or you know center leftism i guess you
00:34:28
could say as opposed to this sort of like crazy
you know woke marxism or maoism whatever you want
00:34:35
to call it um yeah but i'm i'm very skeptical
that he will because i think biden has always
00:34:40
positioned himself throughout his career as being
at the center of the democratic party and i think
00:34:46
he moves as the democratic party moves i agree
he's not going to be all the way to the left of
00:34:50
the democratic party but those left elements will
drag his sort of center to further to the left
00:34:57
and we'll end up with sort of a compromise and i
think at the end of the day if the democrats win
00:35:02
congress he'll sign whatever they they pass
i'm not so sure i really i really i'm not so
00:35:09
sure the the white house is uh not that far
away it looks like it's a 30 minute drive
00:35:18
from walter reed sending a helicopter is
that normal because he drove there last time
00:35:26
would that be indicative of this as an emergency
type situation sending marine one as opposed to
00:35:31
just driving there for 20 minutes there'd be a lot
of liability if he had an actual medical emergency
00:35:37
and they were just like yeah we're gonna send
him for a few days out of an abundance of caution
00:35:40
the fact that they said out of an abundance of
caution i think you if there is an emergency
00:35:45
you you can't get away with saying that
oh you can for sure they would lie i don't
00:35:50
know it'll come out you're saying the trump
administration is above lying about situations
00:35:56
if he's unconscious they gotta swear pension yeah
there's a lot of reasons why you gotta be careful
00:36:00
i'm not saying he's unconscious i'm just saying
it it's not even unconscious marine one like
00:36:05
i'm just thinking out loud here is sending a
helicopter for a 20 minute ride then a motorcade
00:36:10
like seems a little i mean i would take a
i would take a helicopter to the 7-11 if i
00:36:14
had a helicopter fair enough you're taking
a helicopter that is something i would say
00:36:23
okay uh let's this is i think a good jumping off
point to an interesting discussion that blew up
00:36:30
on twitter earlier this week which is we can't
keep up with all the politics the the rhetoric
00:36:36
the vitriol and this polarization so uh coinbase
co-founder and ceo brian armstrong wrote a letter
00:36:43
saying hey listen if you uh want to talk about
politics that's fine not at my company anymore
00:36:50
we're going to have a no politics rule no
debating the stuff and we're going to be
00:36:54
ultra ultra focused focused i'm sorry at work and
you can check your politics at the door when you
00:37:01
read this sax you've come out in support of brian
armstrong uh what was your take on his position
00:37:08
about leave your politics at the door when
you get to work right well i think i think
00:37:13
what brian so i did i did compliment it um his
his manifesto and i i think are you an investor
00:37:20
i am i'm a small investor in coinbase um and
uh and and i'm friendly with with brian and so
00:37:27
i i certainly you know liked the idea of
defending him against unfair attacks but
00:37:33
um i also genuinely liked the manifesto and i
think you know his argument kind of boils down
00:37:38
to three components i think number one that having
these debates on every issue whatever the issue
00:37:45
du jour is pulls the company's focus away from
its core mission which he really emphasized and um
00:37:52
you know that mission mission is
challenging enough in its own right um second he was saying that in something
i've said before as well which is just
00:38:00
that politics is just increasingly divisive in
our society it's just inherently divisive and
00:38:05
therefore it's uh corrosive to team cohesion
and the more you have of that in your company
00:38:10
the worse it is for you know the team and i think
the third thing he he mentioned which i thought
00:38:16
was really interesting is that the freewheeling
debate of or discussion of politics you know like
00:38:23
like that we're having here but we kind of have
our own little safe zone here it risks uh hurt
00:38:27
feelings or misunderstandings that can become
hr issues because people can then complain
00:38:34
about they feel unsafe they feel unsafe and they
report to and so that's a further destruction
00:38:39
moments in this podcast i'll be honest there's a
couple of moments well i think well i think one of
00:38:43
the reasons why this pod sort of works is because
we're all we're all friends and uh we've created
00:38:48
a safe space for us to have these conversations
but the workplace is very different it's not you
00:38:52
know and and what i read brian trying to do is
to reimpose a true safe space by saying leave
00:38:59
your politics at the door now i think he's been
deliberately misconstrued by by critics who want
00:39:06
to say that well you have to leave your conscience
at the door you know that's not true he's not
00:39:11
saying that you can't have your own political
views or contribute to causes that you like but
00:39:17
you just you got to do it on your own time kind
of like mr han said in fast times at richmond
00:39:22
high you know like do that on your own time
um and and that makes sense to me i think like
00:39:30
i mean look i think about this from the point of
view of one of the employees working at one of
00:39:34
these companies that doesn't want to be a party
to the debate um if i'm an engineer at google
00:39:40
or coinbase i go into work and i am captive right
i don't have the option of not showing up to work
00:39:47
if i go to a rally i have the option of saying i'm
going to go to this rally and walk away because
00:39:52
i don't like the speaker or i'm going to go to
the rally because i want to participate in this
00:39:56
dialogue or this debate i can't do that at work so
it's unfair for work which is a place that i as an
00:40:02
employee have to go to every day to be a forum for
people to express themselves on political points
00:40:08
that i may or may not agree with but more
importantly may or may not want to actually
00:40:13
be a party to the discussion around um and i think
that's the most important thing to note here is
00:40:18
like it's not about enabling the free speech of
the employees that want to debate it's about the
00:40:23
protecting the workspace for the employees that
don't want to debate and don't want to be exposed
00:40:27
to that um and that's really important as chamath
is a person of color who um you know have i'm sure
00:40:35
some has some strong feelings about what we've
seen in terms of police shootings or maybe in
00:40:40
your own personal life experience facing racism uh
again as a person of color what are your thoughts
00:40:46
on the workplace is it is it possible for you to
leave that at the door that was the criticism i
00:40:53
think i saw from the you know people who were
supportive of blm and they said the background
00:40:58
here was they were trying to get brian to
explicitly say black lives matter and to
00:41:05
you know have the company rally behind that um and
that he didn't he didn't want to have that be part
00:41:12
of the work environment and that he was offering
people four to six months severance if they would
00:41:16
leave if they don't like the new rules so what
are your thoughts i think that this whole thing
00:41:20
became a quagmire unnecessarily i think that he
showed um a lot of naivety um and frankly like um
00:41:33
you know a little bit of stupidity really um
it was really poorly written um and that's why
00:41:39
it's been so misunderstood and misconstrued in my
opinion i think a lot of what he had to say was
00:41:45
valid but when it was so poorly presented and you
know the the essay was like eight minutes and it
00:41:51
was rambling and the mission was like you know 97
down on the you know and it's just like it was a
00:41:56
convoluted [ __ ] mess so if i had to do it again
if i were him or if i was his advisor and he had
00:42:02
asked me you know to proofread the essay what i
would have said is more of the following which is
00:42:08
our mission which is you know i think to create
financial liberty or something something like that
00:42:13
you guys can find out what it is for the whole
world is unbelievably important we will talk about
00:42:21
every issue through the lens of achieving our
mission and we will be disciplined about saying
00:42:26
which things matter and which things don't so for
example if somebody says listen i really believe
00:42:31
in spaying and neutering dogs the right answer
shouldn't be hey shut the [ __ ] up it says okay
00:42:38
um how does that allow us to maximize our users
how does that allow us to achieve our mission
00:42:45
why does it allow us to achieve our mission and
if you ask the question why four or five times
00:42:52
in the very first principles way you'll get to the
answer so i would have rather said we are going to
00:42:56
train people how to understand what builds up to
our mission and what is otherwise something that
00:43:03
you should leave at home and in that context there
are a lot of things actually that are political
00:43:10
that need to be brought especially into a company
like coinbase which is working in crypto which is
00:43:16
all about eliminating the financial barriers of
people that don't have access to it like you are
00:43:21
trying to dismantle an extremely exclusionary
part of the economy and so there are potentially
00:43:29
many movements that matter and those movements in
countries in which you will want to gain users may
00:43:36
look like political movements well and that was
jack dorsey's point he uh so i just think yeah
00:43:41
so i just think it was a it was a it was kind
of a too super it was very silicon valley-esque
00:43:47
reaction it was emotional um it was a little
insecure and it to me it missed the mark because
00:43:54
there was a lot of validity in what he was saying
but presented in an kind of in a lens of you know
00:44:01
silicon valley [ __ ] and it was not well thought
through so if he had rewritten it and he had said
00:44:08
99 of what he said but through the lens of why
we're going to think about a first principles way
00:44:16
of defining how everything ladders into the
mission he will train his employees instead
00:44:21
what he created was a schism and a decision
point and i'm not sure that that's how you
00:44:26
maximize value in 2020 as a ceo because at the
end of the day you have to deal with an entire
00:44:31
population cohort that is that are in their 20s
early 30s teenagers that will eventually want
00:44:37
to work for you and whether we like it or not
they're different and one of the things you need
00:44:41
to do if you're going to run an enormous company
is understand the psychology of your employees
00:44:46
understand the psychology of how movements and
decisions are organized and then play to win
00:44:53
and it's no different than anybody else
if you want to be in the job you know to
00:44:57
be the starting point guard for the warriors
you got to know how to [ __ ] pass the ball
00:45:01
and if you're going to be the power forward you
have to know how to do a certain set of things
00:45:05
that are different than that and so i would sort
of have framed it there because i think there was
00:45:10
a lot of goodness in what he said but presented
in a pretty shitty manner i think it's good he
00:45:14
brought up the topic i do think there's a tactical
issue here and he he could have laid out the
00:45:19
ground rules for i think to your point jamal of
how we should talk about uh politics at work and
00:45:26
what are the ground rules i think the number one
issue here which people don't talk about is that
00:45:31
slack and email and forums inside of companies
have created a massive distraction and when
00:45:39
somebody goes into the random channel which is
built into slack and i know this is in the weeds
00:45:43
but i have seen this happen at multiple companies
now slack infects a company somebody creates a
00:45:49
room about a topic whether it's trump or police
violence or immigration whatever it is and then
00:45:56
people want to sound off on that and now you've
got an electronic form where people are talking
00:46:02
about highly charged issues that makes people feel
unsafe and so what i told my companies was um the
00:46:07
two companies i run you could talk about politics
if you want to go for a walk with somebody and
00:46:11
have coffee or lunch and you want to have a
two-hour discussion about it go for it please
00:46:16
do not put this in electronic form because it's
a massive distraction uh and there'll be a record
00:46:21
that could create downstream human resources
issues to your report sex i have a suggestion and
00:46:26
this is an organizational design experiment and
maybe somebody listening will implement at their
00:46:31
company allow 100 free form debate about anything
one condition you literally need to have a soapbox
00:46:39
and like in the 1880s hyde park in london yep you
put the soapbox someplace in a safe space where
00:46:46
you can go and you can talk and people who want
to listen will listen and people who need to work
00:46:50
can work and people who don't want to listen
don't have to be forced to listen what's the
00:47:00
a literal place in your office you put the
soap you have a soapbox you grab it you put
00:47:04
it on the ground you stand on it and you
say it and if you're not willing to do that
00:47:09
then right you know are you saying that there's no
digital version of that because people could what
00:47:15
i'm saying is that two things one is the digital
version is actually training people to ask why
00:47:22
why does it matter now the reason why it's
important to ask that is because somebody may say
00:47:27
i'll use jason's example that he loves we need
to support the uyghurs in china the best way
00:47:33
to do that is to proliferate our software
in the following way because it will free
00:47:38
them from ensavement of the chinese and it'll
give them access to financial independence wow
00:47:44
i mean okay that seems to be paying off the
mission so if you would if so you gotta give
00:47:50
freedom for people to come up with these ideas
because it may the first version of this idea may
00:47:56
may not actually be what the final version is in
the final version maybe the killer feature so i
00:48:01
in the digital forum in the slacks it should be
why respect and that's a very respectful question
00:48:08
it shouldn't it should not be in
any digital forum because it leads to chaos because we see that on twitter and
what's happening is the twitter derangement
00:48:14
that we all suffer from is now infected inside
the community the communication system that
00:48:19
runs the operating system of the company
go ahead exactly yeah that that's the thing
00:48:24
yes i do i do agree with jake on this one so
so look i mean chamath is right that i'm sure
00:48:28
i'm sure trumath would have written a better
letter but i think we understand the gist of
00:48:32
what brian was trying to say and actually
i thought it took a lot of courage to to
00:48:36
write it and what he's basically saying
is that politics has become so divisive
00:48:41
in our society that that i mean it'd be nice if we
could have these reasonable debates the way that
00:48:46
we're having this discussion inside companies we
didn't have to have these artificial restrictions
00:48:51
but we do we have to you know it's the same reason
you know that we have the separation of church and
00:48:56
state is because people couldn't stop killing each
other over religious wars and so finally we had
00:49:00
you know the treaty of westphalia to stop it and
what brian's basically proposing is a is a treaty
00:49:06
for the workplace because we cannot get along
around politics but david he is the ceo of an
00:49:12
8 billion dollar company could he not have hired
somebody to edit that essay okay well i mean look
00:49:17
i i just to me it's like if it's meaning if it's
seriously well thought through and it and if it
00:49:22
was as important as westphalia you would probably
have a couple proofreaders corporate corporate
00:49:28
version okay it's not it's not historical it could
have been polish for sure here is jack dorsey's
00:49:32
response and i'll have you guys respond to it i
think it's in your wheelhouse in terms of what you
00:49:36
said chamoth bitcoin aka crypto is direct activism
against an unverifiable and exclusionary financial
00:49:43
system which definitely affects so much of our
society important to at least acknowledge and
00:49:49
connect the related societal issues your customers
face daily this leaves people behind i think he's
00:49:55
right you have to view this problem not through
the lens of your own emotions not even through
00:50:00
the lens of the frustrations of your employees
you have to help shift the discussion to say
00:50:05
why does this achieve our mission and just
constantly in a thoughtful respectful way
00:50:11
ask why and by the fourth or fifth why it will
either be something that doesn't matter and you
00:50:17
can dismiss it quickly or something that actually
is rooted in fact and probably is something you
00:50:23
need to pay attention to and maybe the way that
the conversation started was probably not with the
00:50:28
right language that people given the chance would
have framed it differently okay the worst take
00:50:33
uh according to the internet's uh twitter's
ability to ratio people which is when you get
00:50:38
more comments than likes um which is not normally
how it works people are actually taking the time
00:50:43
to explain to you how bad your take was as
opposed to liking it is what a ratio is if
00:50:48
you don't know um goes to dick casolo uh who's
a friend of ours me first capitalists who think
00:50:56
you can separate society from business are
going to be the first people lined up against
00:51:00
the wall and shot in the revolution i'll be
ha i mean and that's that's enough to get you
00:51:08
ratioed and have this thing go supernova i mean
mike cernovich is retweeting this and losing
00:51:13
like his mind over it you know that the former ceo
of twitter is inciting violence he's a comedian as
00:51:19
well um to costello so i think he's joking here
and but he adds the punk the exclamation point
00:51:25
i'll happily provide video commentary yeah here
here's here's here's my uh disagreement with with
00:51:32
dick and with jack is ultimately the societal
value of a company doesn't come from whatever
00:51:40
platitudes or political statements its co makes
but rather from the quality of its products and
00:51:46
the impact of its products and in that sense
dick and jack are living in a glass house i mean
00:51:51
twitter is a sewer of political diatribe and
polemical hate you know it's i don't know anyone
00:51:59
who feels better uh you know after spending time
on twitter you know if facebook is like cigarettes
00:52:06
you know i i don't know what twitter is i
mean it's like fentanyl or something yeah
00:52:10
so so ultimately you know maybe jack should spend
his time figuring out how to make twitter into a
00:52:17
less socially divisive product instead of you
know because just issuing woke plates is not
00:52:23
going to do it i agree with the i agree with that
i don't think platitudes does it all i'm saying is
00:52:28
you have to view it through the lens of i want
to become the most relevant company possible and
00:52:34
achieve the most impact and i think that there
are a lot of times where some of these issues
00:52:40
when presented politically underlying it is
actually some feature or some capability or
00:52:46
some way of seeing the problem that unlocks more
demand that can help you win and not knowing a
00:52:52
priori what the answers to those questions are
it's important to train people on a framework
00:52:57
versus say you can't talk because i guarantee
you what will happen is somebody with some killer
00:53:02
feature will be too scared to say something
because they're not sure how to say it well
00:53:06
and you and i both know because we've seen many
companies that have gone through that cycle
00:53:10
those companies decay and die yeah i think it'd
be great if a policy like this wasn't necessary
00:53:17
i mean it's i i agree it's suboptimal but i
think it's it's caused by the fact that people
00:53:22
just can't get along around politics anymore
friedberg what is your take on ultimately how
00:53:28
coinbase winds up the year or two after this do
they get more resumes of hyper-talented people
00:53:36
who want to embrace a politics social issue
free workplace or do millennials and you know
00:53:44
gen c and this next group of talented folks say
i don't want to work for somebody who doesn't
00:53:51
want to talk about these issues at work and then
at the production board where you have a factory
00:53:55
where you build uh companies do you have some rule
around this yourself or thoughts about how you run
00:54:01
your companies i think the more clearly you define
culture the more successful your company will be
00:54:09
and right or wrong about whether or not you
enable the debate in the discussion and how you
00:54:14
define the forums for kind of political discussion
within your company the fact that there is a clear
00:54:21
definition and delineation around this point i
think removes the uncertainty and i think he'll do
00:54:26
exactly what he's hoping to do which is to get
people to leave and to attract other people that
00:54:31
better fit with that cultural model i want to put
my game face on i want to go to work and i want
00:54:36
to win the game i'm here to play i'm not here
to [ __ ] around i'm not here to do other stuff
00:54:41
i want this job because i believe in this
mission and i want this company to succeed
00:54:45
in what it's trying to do and i think other
places that allow people to run around and
00:54:50
you know do things that they may or may not
appreciate other people doing or and you have
00:54:56
this kind of low definition kind of culture where
some people are happy some people are unhappy
00:55:02
it all kind of you know slows things down and
and i wouldn't kind of encourage anyone to um
00:55:09
to let that happen i think it's really important
to just define how it is you want to operate
00:55:13
be really clear about the rules
and the boundaries and then um that i agree with as well i mean i think it's
very much within his right and i think it took
00:55:22
i do applaud his courage in doing it i just think
that it misses the mark because i think it was
00:55:26
too emotional i think he could do a 2.0 version
and just keep building on the manifesto and say
00:55:31
hey based on the feedback i got here's how we're
going to do it no discussion here on the election
00:55:38
reid hastings put out that fantastic uh powerpoint
that i think we all know really well the cultural
00:55:43
playbook from netflix and he when did he put that
out like it's almost a decade ago no two decades
00:55:49
ago was 2000 2001 and he's continued to refine it
right if you look at there's recent iterations of
00:55:54
it and they continue to kind of do a better job
of defining um you know uh how do they intend
00:55:59
to operate uh with people um and i think it's
it's only continue to reinforce the innovation
00:56:05
that drives that company into the hundred billion
dollar plus valuation it's earned yes and if you
00:56:12
if there's one important thing which is that
there's a meaningful difference in the average
00:56:17
age of a netflix employee and the average age of
a silicon valley company now that may be also part
00:56:22
of it as well i i think the one thing that brian
could clarify is that you don't have to check
00:56:28
your conscience at the door you it's not we're
not saying that you can't have political views
00:56:33
you're allowed to say things on twitter or take
political stands or donate to whoever you want
00:56:38
it's just that the company itself is going to be
a demilitarized zone you know we're not going to
00:56:43
bring we're not going to bring these contentious
divisive debates that really aren't related to our
00:56:48
core mission inside the company so we can all work
better so we can all work better as a team towards
00:56:53
the reason that we all joined this company
but that's totally fair but you know while
00:56:57
i'm saying all i'm saying again i'll just say
it again that is such an important thing to say
00:57:02
you could have had it proof for it
a couple times you didn't could have been could have come across the way you're
saying it it didn't have to be written by gpt3
00:57:09
you know what i mean also i think that it was a
the the dunk he did afterwards where he's like and
00:57:16
by the way if you don't like it here's four
months severance get the [ __ ] out that was
00:57:22
a pretty uh aggressive move as well all right i
don't know how you guys feel i think i kind of
00:57:27
like the gangster nature i like it i think it's
i think it's great it's like if i'm on the team
00:57:32
and i believe in what he just said i feel great
that he's flushing this [ __ ] out and if i don't
00:57:36
agree with it it's like [ __ ] yeah i'll take
it you know like it's really clear and i think
00:57:40
the clear-cut definition of culture is
what every company needs to kind of pursue
00:57:44
and it's an ongoing pursuit and you can always
do a better job with it and culture is what
00:57:48
you choose not to do as much as it is what you do
right i'm not going to talk about politics i think
00:57:52
is totally right it takes a lot of courage
to say here's what i believe and if you don't
00:57:56
if you don't believe in it then it's okay for
you to leave and here's a severance package
00:58:01
that takes a lot of courage so i applaud him for
that yeah i mean look it's a free country and we
00:58:06
all have limited time we should all go work on the
mission that is most important and inspiring to us
00:58:12
and coinbase has a very specific mission that
brian's defining he's trying to find it clearly
00:58:17
and if that mission is important and inspiring
to you then go work there and if it's not then
00:58:21
go work at the place that you know where that
you know where the mission does inspire you
00:58:25
and it may be a startup or maybe you know a
political organization whatever it is go go do
00:58:30
that thing that's most meaningful to you that's
kind of my interpretation of what he was saying
00:58:36
all right as we wrap here it was hard for me
to interpret because it was so poorly written
00:58:41
well also i mean it was also like a huge bomb
on twitter and people's reaction to it was based
00:58:47
upon i think how they feel at this moment in
time and a lot of people feel this is why i'm
00:58:51
sorry but communications is important how you say
things what you say yeah style is really important
00:58:59
yeah whether it's take the time get it
right yeah all right so 2021 is going to
00:59:06
be upon us before we know it and i wanted
to wrap here with each of your feelings on
00:59:12
uh the economy uh technology and politics
economy technology politics how do you feel
00:59:18
uh about 2021 are you optimistic pessimistic
neutral on those economy politics have you
00:59:27
guys ever been to magic mountain or disneyland
you ever get you get in one of those log rides
00:59:34
and it's like raging rapids or roaring
waters or whatever they're called sure and it's just [ __ ] like you hop in
and this thing just takes off down the river
00:59:42
i mean i don't know nothing summarizes not better
for me but in so many ways is that where i feel
00:59:48
we are right now we've all jumped on a bunch of [
__ ] logs and we're shooting down this rapid river
00:59:53
um and i think a big part of what i'm
feeling and chamath is in the middle of this
00:59:58
but there's this extraordinary velocity of
capital right now and um when i say that i
01:00:04
just mean capital is moving in large amounts very
freely and that creates like once in a generation
01:00:10
kind of opportunity it's in part because the
fed has dropped interest rates to zero so
01:00:15
there's all these trillions of dollars moving
markets there's a change in an outlook and the
01:00:19
world is being shifted in so many ways this is
this really amazing moment that i think we can
01:00:24
all be afraid of because we're on a [ __ ]
roaring rapid on a log trying to stay afloat
01:00:29
but um there is so much happening uh in in
these markets that we kind of operate in
01:00:36
there's never been a better time to get your
business funded or to take your company public
01:00:40
or to get customers to make quick decisions and
change their behavior whether they're a consumer
01:00:45
or an enterprise customer money and decisions
are happening at a money's moving at a faster
01:00:49
pace than we've ever seen and decisions are
happening at a faster pace than we've ever
01:00:53
seen that's my general sentiment i don't think
it stops going into 2021 there's just another
01:00:59
kind of floodgate about to open with
this election one way or the other um but the these we're in the middle of this
kind of raging rapids right now and it's uh it's
01:01:07
it's a pretty um it's a pretty scary but also
kind of exciting kind of time so it's so well
01:01:12
said quinoa i really agree with you i i think
that it's kind of like if you used to take
01:01:18
um a second to make a one dollar decision and
a minute to take a hundred dollar decision the
01:01:25
amount of money being flooded into the economy now
allows you to uh make a hundred dollar decision in
01:01:30
a second right so like the order of magnitude of
the mental barrier that it takes um has changed
01:01:37
and uh i agree with you i was thinking earlier
this week that um it's a really incredible time
01:01:44
to be alive for one very in one very specific
way which is obviously there's stuff that's
01:01:49
happening that's really turbulent but there
is a chance that a bunch of us can really um
01:01:59
like change things in a meaningful way and um and
i find it exciting so i'm generally like i'm super
01:02:07
bullish uh on the economy i'm super bullish on
tech um and i think i'm actually kind of like
01:02:15
reasonably optimistic about politics i think
that we're gonna find our civility soon
01:02:20
um and uh and i don't know why that's going
to happen or how it's going to get triggered
01:02:27
um but i think honestly like the election of biden
um will go such a long way to just um you know
01:02:37
just showing what is rewarded and then to figure
out how to reward the folks that were supporting
01:02:44
trump in the first place for purposes of economic
um you know pushback could be a nice de-escalation
01:02:52
in fact and maybe an olive branch if biden can
bring that republican party into the conversation
01:02:58
yeah and sac sacks had this really beautiful
thing that he posted on twitter which was like
01:03:03
you know a lot of san francisco's dysfunction is
really going to spread wealth throughout the rest
01:03:09
of the country because a lot of cities that were
shut out of all these tech gains will now see it
01:03:15
and now you can imagine uh all kinds of people
there's a guy that i you know follow on twitter
01:03:20
he he he lives in bowie maryland he's a engineer
at vmware um this black guy and he was just
01:03:27
talking about how he got promoted and he's now a
principal engineer and you know and i just thought
01:03:32
like this is really [ __ ] cool like there's
gonna be all this redistribution of opportunity
01:03:39
all around the country um and that'll happen
because of coronavirus because of people's
01:03:44
frustration with california because you know
of a handful of us how fed up we've gotten with
01:03:49
the culture of silicon valley including by the
way right what brian armstrong wrote which was
01:03:54
which again still very important um and
so we'll all be better off for that so i
01:03:59
don't know i'm pretty optimistic sax tech economy
politics 2021 well i i'm i'm super bullish about
01:04:09
you know how about the entrepreneurial energy in
the american economy um it's it's it's a hundred
01:04:15
times greater than when we started out our careers
in this business you know 20 years ago in terms of
01:04:20
the number of companies that get funded the ideas
the tools that are available the funding i mean
01:04:27
when you think about it this might be the first
time in human history where money is chasing the
01:04:32
like throwing money at the ideas i mean throughout
history until i'd say the last 10 20 years ago
01:04:37
you know the people who had no money but had
great ideas have always had to go hat in hand
01:04:42
to go find the capital and now it's going it's
completely the other way around there's so many
01:04:46
vcs and they're all racing around trying to find
the people with ideas and um it was worse than
01:04:53
that sax they had to go give their ideas to a big
company and take a salary right like so tesla you
01:04:58
know nikola tesla the original inventor didn't
profit at all from his ideas you know um and
01:05:03
so that was pretty common and um and so just
this just how entrepreneurial the u.s economy
01:05:10
has become i'm very the new economy is completely
taken over and i'm bullish on that i think the the
01:05:15
you know the the tweet that smoth was referencing
you know i said that san francisco's loss is going
01:05:20
to be america's gain the rest of america's gain
because middle america was really left out of
01:05:25
the new economy it's just not where it was taking
place and so you know globalization really gutted
01:05:31
industrial america and cultural
america they didn't get to participate in the enormous wealth creation of the
last two or three decades and i think
01:05:39
you know on i guess you know because of what
san francisco has done in terms of driving out
01:05:44
companies i think the companies are going to
be you know tech companies are going to be all
01:05:48
over the us now yeah totally it's so it's [ __ ]
awesome should be uh super interesting uh and so
01:05:56
uh let's just lay the odds as we wrap here on
biden winning biden 65 35 approaching 70 30. okay
01:06:08
david's you gotta you got a
handicap for me on fighting winning what do you think sax well i mean the the betting
line is is like somewhere in the 60 to 70 range
01:06:22
and so you'd have to say that the
the betting markets are probably you know pretty accurate i guess you know
probably there's a 70 chance of him winning
01:06:30
if i had to bet on that line i'd probably
take the 30 underdog because i think you know
01:06:35
there's alway things are so in so much turmoil
right now that anything can still happen so you
01:06:40
think there's a chance that trump could win yeah
and it's probably bigger than 30 percent yeah it's
01:06:44
probably bigger it's slightly bigger than what
the betting markets are giving them credit for
01:06:48
free what are your thoughts probably right
yeah i don't have anything to add to that
01:06:51
all right uh any speculation that we want to end
with chamath uh on the uh i just noticed that a
01:06:58
meal from uh uber is doing a spec mark pincus
is doing his bag everybody's doing specs now
01:07:05
any speculation on uh what we're gonna see in
that market nope god bless them and i love you
01:07:13
all besties all right besties back to the grind
back to the garage and we'll see you next time
01:07:18
you know what to do share this podcast with
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01:07:21
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on the all in podcast bye bye