00:00:00
did you guys see this uh White House video
oh is there a White House video
i
00:00:05
honestly think that was the funniest post by a White House ever was the
00:00:10
Daddy's Home video I feel like popping bottles to this
Come
00:00:17
on now Up in the club Oh in the VIP popping bottle with the rainman Let's
00:00:24
buy two bottles of that all in tequila If we get a double
00:00:31
That is the best
The backstory to that is that Mark Ruto who's the secretary general of NATO called Trump daddy at
00:00:37
the
Yeah he called him daddy Guy got weird
Ragg you missed it We were
00:00:42
just up in the club You want to go back to the club for a second
i do I love the club
You ready
i love the club
Popping
00:00:48
some bottles with the NATO summit
We're doing it again
Come on Freeberg
00:00:53
Let me see you stand up Freeberg your Sultan of science What club are we
00:01:00
going to this weekend oh daddy's home We are going to bring the club to us
I
00:01:06
think it's called Club NATO
Sash can you get the hot pass you want to come to Vegas this weekend
uh maybe we'll talk about it all
00:01:14
JL come out Where are you
pop on a Southwest flight Meet us in Vegas
00:01:23
Let your winners ride Rainman David
00:01:30
and we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it Love you
00:01:38
All right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world The AllIn podcast your favorite podcast
00:01:45
We're back We got the original quartet here and everybody's really excited because we had a fun time on Saturday
00:01:53
night What a party we had at Delilah All four besties there Step and repeat
00:02:00
Freeberg you lost a bunch of money playing bomb pots with me and Rob Goldberg You drank a lot You looked
00:02:07
great
Your impressions of this evening
00:02:13
Oh I loved it It was great I think the tequila turned out fantastic This tequila has been I mean you guys realize
00:02:19
when we first started talking about this this was like two and a half almost three years ago when we first started
00:02:25
talking about this and it is finally here
It took forever to get through this
00:02:31
uh this kind of design development process but man I think it turned out great I thought it was awesome Everybody
00:02:36
at the Everybody at the party was surprised by how good it was cuz they thought that I don't know we were just
00:02:42
doing this as a gimmick or something
but we actually put in the time to make it great
A lot of time
A lot of time So
00:02:49
talk a little bit about the sourcing cuz I think that that sourcing was very important
Well we went down to Tequila
00:02:56
Mexico There's only one part of Mexico that's even allowed to be called uh tequila And we found a distillery that
00:03:04
had been aging some agave in American oak whiskey barrels for 5 years
And
00:03:11
normally extrajo is aged for 3 years So it was pretty rare to find a cache of
00:03:17
5year aged And so we basically bought it all But there's only enough for 7500 bottles So that's what we did But you
00:03:24
know this is not about creating some large new tequila label This is more
00:03:29
about creating something that we ourselves like and that's what we did Sort of a small batch product I mean the
00:03:35
money is not going to change anyone's life you know except maybe yours
Yeah But
I don't know Uber hit another record
00:03:42
today So with Uber past 88 you guys are all I don't need to be here anymore
Oh
00:03:48
my god
But look we do things because they're fun And it was fun to create this Here I've got the
It is fun It was
00:03:54
really fun
Well look at this thing I mean
beautiful box slides open
It's back
00:03:59
lit
in the box
So cool
So that out of the box experience is just amazing
Yeah it's a great unboxing Steve Jobs would
00:04:06
be proud Tell us about the bottle design That was a lot of work Sachs I think this probably took an extra 6 months to
00:04:13
get this right if I'm if I'm recalling correctly on the schedule
This is super complicated to execute
Well the bottle
00:04:19
is designed after a stack of poker chips And so you can see the chips are stacked and they're a jar So it's like highly
00:04:26
it's a lot of texture here It's made with glass and then there's these black chip accents that are actually painted
00:04:33
onto the bottle perfectly So this took a lot to get right We went through a lot
00:04:38
of prototypes to get this and it just looks amazing All right there you have it folks The
00:04:43
All-In Tequila as promised
It's finally available on our website So if you go to
00:04:49
tequila.allin.com you can now buy it
There's only 7,500 bottles I think we're only going to sell
00:04:55
6,000
because we're going to keep the rest for our own personal stuff
We sold a good chunk already Like I think we're
00:05:01
So they're going really fast We just opened up the website Previously they were only available to people who had
00:05:06
attended the All-in Summit They could pre-order it and reserve but now the website is open
Oh wow Beautiful
There
00:05:12
it is
Okay there you go Order your bottle limit to two and uh go ahead This
00:05:18
is you know this is not a a cheap product but you know if you look at the the pure competitor for this product is
00:05:24
the Clausul Ultra which I think sells at $1,700 a bottle although sometimes I've
00:05:30
seen it sell for as much as 3,000 a bottle So we're priced competitively with that
There you go And each of the
00:05:35
those boxes and when you open it up the lights up and you can recharge it So it's a keepsake right
there's a charging
00:05:41
port in the box so that it never runs out of a battery to power the
So genius
00:05:47
So genius I love that little touch All right folks There's tons in the new look at this room service coming I mean
00:05:55
before we get to World War II let's get some room service at the
Peep that out
00:06:01
Do you want a side of caviar with your uh besties all in tequila listen being an elitist guys is very
00:06:08
hard
That's what I was tweeting how stressful it is Somebody was saying that we weren't living up to our job as being
00:06:14
the elite
Oh
And I was like man this is it's really stressful being an elite You know we need we need a drink
Absolutely
00:06:21
I'll take a double You have no idea So did you get did you go with the on your eggs Bernese there did you go with the
00:06:26
truffles or the caviar what did you do well I I honestly I um I went quite
00:06:32
healthy I have some avocado
Okay Very nice
I have mango
Mhm And I have some
00:06:40
eggs Where are my eggs
up to $72 Okay David do you want to see my pillows with my initials on them
Oh lord Here we go
00:06:47
This is the best thing that the does Shout out to our friends at Politico How out of touch we are
Look Sax they
00:06:55
always put my initials
Oh they do that for you
they do that for me Isn't that incredible
okay here we go All right
00:07:01
there's lots to discuss in the news We'll shift from conspicuous consumption
00:07:07
and talk about the 12-day war between Israel and Iran It's two weeks later obviously a quick recap here and then
00:07:14
we'll get the besties take on where we're at today June 26 when we tape this
00:07:19
Friday June 13th Israel launched a surprise attack took out a bunch of uh Iranian military officials some folks
00:07:27
who work on the nuclear program and they traded missiles for about a week before
00:07:33
everybody debating if this was going to be World War II And on Saturday June 21st quite shockingly the US jumped in
00:07:39
and carried out Operation Midnight Hammer
I've had a couple weekends in Vegas that have been called Midnight
00:07:44
Hammer
Oh yes Midnight Hammer also known as Wow There we go folks Um over a dozen
00:07:52
bunker buster bombs on two maybe three of Iran's key nuclear facilities Fordo
00:07:58
and Natans These bombs weigh 15 tons each They'll go deep underground Israel doesn't have them And that's the reason
00:08:05
we're given of why we were pulled into this is because we're the only people in the world who could have taken these out
00:08:10
On Thursday morning chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kaine showed a
00:08:16
video If you haven't seen it folks this came out this morning Here's the video It's a video of a of of what they call a
00:08:22
massive ordinance penetrator Yeah It basically
goes through the ground I think in this case it's going through a
00:08:28
ventilation shaft
and it doesn't immediately go off It basically burrows to its maximum depth and then goes off
00:08:35
This looks like a test to me
This is just demonstrating it This is a demonstrating how it works Yeah
00:08:40
And so uh here's the before and after photos you've probably seen Kind of hard to understand what's going on here except for the discolorization Obviously
00:08:46
we're going for things underground And then shockingly Iran did a um a I
00:08:54
don't know what you'd call this a ceremonial response sacks where they send some missiles to one of our bases in Qar They gave us a ton of notice None
00:09:01
of them landed And then uh both countries have been bombing each other a
00:09:07
little bit after Trump said he negotiated a ceasefire which made our president a little bit upset Here's the
00:09:14
clip of the president not dropping a MOAB but dropping an F-bomb
Israel As
00:09:20
soon as we made the deal they came out and they dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I've never seen before
00:09:26
The biggest load that we've seen I'm not happy with Israel You know when when I say "Okay now you have 12 hours You
00:09:32
don't go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them So I'm not happy with them I'm not happy with
00:09:38
Iran either We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know
00:09:45
what the they're doing Do you understand that
you had Trump is not happy he did the lean in
00:09:52
Did you notice the lean in there Saxs when he dropped the fbomb well in in fairness President Trump's not the first
00:09:58
president to drop an F-bomb in frustration with Netanyahu
00:10:03
It was reported back in the '9s that Bill Clinton when he had to deal with
00:10:09
Netanyahu as being very obsinate and was basically rejecting all of Clinton's
00:10:15
entreaties and plans Clinton is reported to have said "Who's the [ __ ] superpower here?" you know in frustration So
this is not the first
00:10:22
time that an American president has gotten frustrated with Netanyahu But I think people reacted quite well to that
00:10:29
on the whole because it showed that President Trump was willing
to well first first of all he negotiated this
00:10:34
ceasefire
which was amazing Then what happens is that you know there was this deadline
and it was like in a in a fight
00:10:42
where they ring the bell and the fighters keep slugging with each other Yeah
It's like they both want to get a few extra hits in
Mhm And uh that's
00:10:50
licks that's yeah that they got some last licks in but President Trump negotiated the ceasefire which was extraordinary and then he's willing to
00:10:56
reprimand Israel for basically violating the ceasefire too which you have to do if you want to enforce it So I think
00:11:02
that's basically what happened there
Now you sax I'm sure the audience wants to
00:11:07
challenge you on this You were hey Trump is a never get involved in forever wars Obviously it looks like this might not
00:11:13
be a forever war which would be fantastic if that turns out to be the case and um you were saying "Hey the
00:11:20
reason to vote for Trump is he won't get us into another war and here we go." Uh and obviously Tucker Tulsi there's a
00:11:26
number of people who are did not want to do this and you were one of them So how
00:11:32
do you reconcile all of this as somebody who did not want to see us do this president Trump accomplished that We're
00:11:38
not in a forever war We're not in a war with Iran You look at Mark Levin today he's apoplelectic because he and people
00:11:44
like him were advocating for a regime change war and they felt like this was the perfect opportunity to drag the
00:11:50
United States into such a war and President Trump resisted that and instead negotiated a ceasefire So it
00:11:56
seems to me that he lived up to exactly his promises on this Look I think President Trump had to thread a very
00:12:03
difficult needle here If you look at polling the vast majorities of the American population believe in two
00:12:09
things Number one they don't want Iran getting a nuclear weapon by like 80 something% They also by 80 something%
00:12:16
don't want to get dragged into a new forever war in the Middle East right they don't want to be in a long protracted war with Iran President Trump
00:12:24
managed to accomplish both those objectives He took out the Iranian nuclear sites in these highly precise
00:12:30
targeted strikes but he did not get dragged into a new Middle Eastern war In fact he negotiated a ceasefire and at
00:12:38
least an end to the war right now between Israel and Iran I think there's very few leaders who could have threaded
00:12:43
this needle Imagine if Kla Harris were president Just do the counterfactual Would she have had the situational awareness to realize that when the
00:12:50
Iranians struck at our base in Qatar that it was performative that it was telegraphed and that it was meant to
00:12:57
basically be for domestic consumption and end the war she might have escalated
00:13:02
it Certainly you know a lot of the neocons who were on social media were saying "This is our chance right?" When
00:13:08
when the Iranians engaged in that performative hit on on Qatar they were saying "We got to escalate We got to
00:13:14
basically bomb all of Iran now and get into a big war." And Trump he had the overall awareness of the situation to
00:13:20
avoid that And this goes back to his experience with Solommani back in the first Trump administration The Iranians
00:13:26
did the same thing where they fired some missiles at American bases but they were telegraphed We were told in advance they
00:13:32
were coming They were easy to avoid No Americans got harmed And then Trump ended the conflict there And I think
00:13:39
that a lot of presidents might have gotten sucked in to a new Middle Eastern war
Chimath let me pull you in here Uh
00:13:45
obviously little cognitive dissonance Folks didn't want to go to war but we don't want WMDs
00:13:53
in the hands of Iran How do you reconcile all of this does the outcome make it okay uh in your mind or would
00:13:59
you rather have seen we not get involved in this
can I uplevel this slightly i think that this has been probably the
00:14:06
most important week and I would almost say most
00:14:12
important few months in US politics in 30 or 40 years And the reason is that it
00:14:19
starts to converge a bunch of things together that I think are really worth putting on the table So
00:14:26
from my perspective I think what President Trump has done is almost single-handedly bring back the United
00:14:34
States as the global superpower And I would put that in all caps So what does
00:14:40
it mean to be a superpower i've said this several times but just to be slightly redundant In order to be a
00:14:46
superpower I think you need to have three things but they work in a hierarchy The first is that you need to
00:14:52
have technical supremacy And then from that technological supremacy you need to
00:14:58
establish and project economic supremacy and military supremacy So if you look at
00:15:04
the first one you saw a tactical demonstration of technological supremacy with the B2 bombers But taking a more
00:15:10
general step back if you look at the largest companies in the world who are the ones that are actually driving the
00:15:17
world forward these are all American companies I think these last few months you've seen America firing on all
00:15:24
cylinders technologically economically At the same time you now have the stock market back at all-time
00:15:31
highs You have interest rates incredibly starting to compress even in the absence
00:15:36
of the Federal Reserve willing to act on data So you're projecting economic supremacy And then these last few weeks
00:15:44
frankly have been a pretty clear-cut case of military supremacy And so I think what's pretty simple now is like
00:15:50
the US is essentially telling the world our words carry weight again We're going
00:15:56
to shape the global order Countries will now have to calibrate their actions
00:16:01
around what the US is willing to tolerate and what it isn't willing to tolerate And in the case of Iran the
00:16:08
president made those lines I think really crystal clear He warned them a 100 times where the line was And he was
00:16:16
clear you cannot build nuclear weapons And when the line was crossed and look I think the the CNN's of the world want to
00:16:23
debate that the line wasn't crossed All I can tell you is I don't know because I don't have access to the intel I believe
00:16:29
what he and Tulsi Gabbard and JD Vance and Marco Rubio and Pete Hexith are saying is that they crossed the line and
00:16:37
then he showed that he will use decisive military force when that happens But
00:16:42
then here's what's crazy and this is where I think you become a real superpower It's what happens after once
00:16:48
you cross the line you notice that he doesn't try to humiliate or dominate Iran He tells Iran that he wants them to
00:16:56
stabilize themselves He told them that he wants to see them trading oil with China He wants to see them improving the
00:17:03
lives of their people because he realizes that a stable Iran is a stable Middle East So I think it's really
00:17:10
amazing And then the the fact that he was able to bring Israel and Iran who's been on the verge of some kind of
00:17:16
conflict for decades and broker a ceasefire it's a really important moment
00:17:21
I think in American history I really do think that if you look at my little framework it is the closest thing for us
00:17:28
to being able to say that we are truly a clearcut singular hegeimon global
00:17:34
superpower again And that's really exciting Well he did he definitely did provide that golden bridge for Iran to to cross
00:17:41
over to and maybe move into another phase But Freeberg maybe you could steal me the other side of this just for the
00:17:46
discussion here This could have gone another direction We could be sitting here and there could be terrorist
00:17:52
attacks or sleeper cells you know in the United States It could turn out when we do the postmortem here that they weren't
00:17:58
close to having a nuclear bomb and we did this and we got goated into it So maybe obviously things have gone well to
00:18:05
date but things might not have So maybe you could steal man the other side of this What's the argument for not having
00:18:10
done this and uh what if things had gone another way how bad could this be
00:18:16
um I don't know if this is over and so well that's my point Yeah I mean we're kind of in the middle of a
00:18:24
choose your own adventure book here and I've got to imagine
00:18:30
that the Israelis and Netanyahu who's been pretty vocal about this regime
00:18:36
that's been shouting for decades now death to Israel death to the USA
00:18:42
needs to change is going to suddenly say hey let's take a beat and walk away from
00:18:48
this and we'll all kind of have peace in the Middle At least I think we've got to expect that there is another page to
00:18:53
turn that's coming And I don't know if you guys heard I don't know if it's genuine or if it's authentic or not Did
00:18:58
you hear that audio of one of the kind of Mossad or IDF people calling an IRGC
00:19:04
commander and telling him that he has 24 hours to leave Iran with his wife and child did you guys hear that
00:19:11
I have not
I saw it Yeah I mean I heard it
It's pretty incredible And
00:19:17
I've got to imagine that there's going to continue to be effort to destabilize whatever regime remains in Iran by
00:19:25
Israel Mossad and this isn't going to be kind of a a quiet peaceful transition
00:19:31
There's going to continue to be more conflict Whether these guys are going to be trading missiles back and forth tomorrow I think you know we don't
00:19:37
really know But this isn't over And I do think that the next set of actions is
00:19:43
going to be critical But what I was pretty surprised by I did not like everyone was saying "Hey we're on the
00:19:48
brink of World War II." I mean there was some serious statesmanship that must have gone on to keep China And I have no
00:19:56
idea I've had no insight or conversations with anyone to give me any sort of proprietary access to knowledge
00:20:02
about what's going on here But I've got to imagine there were calls to China and Russia that kept them in the loop and
00:20:07
kept them in play on how this all played out because China and Russia the whole fear was this was going to create this
00:20:13
magnet in the Middle East that everything was going to rush in and we're going to catalyze World War II and it didn't happen So I do think that you
00:20:20
know first of all nothing that folks predicted actually happened and no one predicted what did
00:20:26
happen So I I'm not going to sit here and try
and I'm not going to sit here and try and predict what happened next
00:20:32
And I will say if I'm thinking about like you know game theory optimal poker play I got to give credit to this
00:20:38
president because it was completely unpredictable what was coming next And I don't think that there was a really
00:20:44
clear path on what he was going to do Just like was what has happened repeatedly Everyone always slams a table
00:20:50
and says he's starting World War II He's driving economic collapse Everything's about to end And then it turns out he
00:20:56
kind of ducks and weaves and finds his way through And everyone's like "Holy [ __ ] I didn't expect that to happen."
00:21:02
And that was it's very unpredictable what's going to happen next So I am not going to sit here and try and estimate what's going to happen next I can tell
00:21:07
you I don't think the Israelis are going to sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build
00:21:14
up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel death to the USA And I think that they've taken their first
00:21:20
shot and I don't think it's their last So we'll see how this all plays out I really don't know
Well I'm sure I'm sure that's right
Let me just tee up one
00:21:26
person who did get it right Here's John Mirshimer at the All-In Summit just nine months ago Let me play this clip here
00:21:32
and get your reaction Saxs
to counter the Iranian escalation scenario the fact
00:21:39
is Iran does not want a war with the United States and the United States does not want a war with Iran And it's the
00:21:46
Israelis especially Benjamin Netanyahu who has been trying to sort of suck us
00:21:52
into a war because he wants us the United States to really whack Iran
00:21:58
weaken it militarily and especially to go after its nuclear capabilities because as you well know they are close
00:22:05
to the point where they can develop nuclear weapons So the Israelis are the ones who want us to get involved in a
00:22:12
big war with Iran That's the escalation flash point And the $64,000 question is
00:22:18
whether you think the United States and Iran kind of colluding can work together
00:22:24
to prevent the Israelis from getting a that that question will be answered based on the next who who who leads the
00:22:31
next administration
Well if you believe that it matters who leads the next
00:22:36
administration that's true And there's Saxs there's you laughing for this incredible insight which is as you were
00:22:43
saying last year and and Mir Shimemer's been saying this was manifest destiny This was going to happen no matter who
00:22:49
was president and here we are So your thoughts on Mir Shimer sort of I mean wow he just nailed it there And that was
00:22:55
to your question Freedberg by the way So well done uh to Freedberg We didn't put your question at the beginning because he he went on for five or 10 minutes
00:23:01
there But go ahead your reaction to Mir Shimemer's incredible prediction That's Professor Mir Shammer being prophetic as
00:23:08
as usual But let me go back to a point that Freeberg was making to Freeberg's point here This is not over Iran and
00:23:14
Israel are mortal enemies and we have a ceasefire here We have a pause in the action but it's going to flare up again
00:23:20
at some point The question is what US policy is going to be And I think that
00:23:25
what President Trump did over the past two weeks is make it clear that number one the United States does not want to
00:23:31
see Iran get a nuclear bomb and that we are willing to take military action to prevent that but that that action would
00:23:38
be narrowly targeted as narrowly targeted as possible to achieve that objective Number two that the United
00:23:44
States does not have an interest in going to war to basically achieve a regime change If the people of Iran want
00:23:52
to make Iran great again by you know rising up and toppling the government then that's up to them Certainly I think
00:23:57
we would welcome that But the Trump administration rejected all of the calls
00:24:02
over the past week or so for the United States to plunge into a regime change war in Iran And that's why the neocons
00:24:10
right now are not happy at all So that's point number two Look I think Trump found the right balance here which is we
00:24:17
are going to be narrowly focused on preventing a threat to the United States which is Iran having a nuclear bomb But
00:24:24
we're not going to go plunging into another forever war another regime change operation We've had plenty of experience with that in the Middle East
00:24:30
None of it worked Every time we went for regime change it backfired Backfired in Iraq Afghanistan Libya and on and on So
00:24:39
there's no reason to believe regime change would work And by the way there's no way to get regime change in a country
00:24:44
unless you send in American GIS to basically keep that government propped up in in power because it's almost
00:24:50
certainly going to be perceived as a puppet of the United States I mean if you put you know Raza Palavi or
00:24:55
something the Shaw's son in power in Iran he's going to face an insurgency
00:25:00
right away and there's no way that his government's going to stay in power without the American military protecting him and keeping him in power at the end
00:25:07
of a rifle barrel So this whole idea that you can achieve regime change without its evil twin which is nation
00:25:13
building is a total fantasy You can't do it You would need an American occupation going on for decades And I think that
00:25:20
the Trump administration wisely rejected all of this giddy talk Remember in the first couple of days of that Israeli
00:25:28
surprise attack where it was Israel who hit Iran and there was all this talk about decapitation that the Iranian
00:25:35
regime was about to collapse It just needed a little bit of a push
Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Gra That's what Lindsey
00:25:41
Graham said That was all heady talk that turned out not to be true There's no question that the Iranian regime took
00:25:47
some damage but they did not collapse And in fact if you look at history one of the things Mir Shmer's pointed out is
00:25:54
that you don't get regime change just through air power alone It takes boots on the ground And most Americans are not
00:26:01
willing to put boots on the ground in Iran to change the regime there We believe that is sufficient just to keep
00:26:07
Iran from having a nuclear weapon And that's what American policy should focus on
Yeah I really fell for this
What do
00:26:12
you think
well I really fell for this check raise from Trump who was like
00:26:18
"Yeah no we're not doing this We're not doing this." And all of a sudden he does it right nobody expected him to do it
00:26:23
Everybody thought he was going to not intervene And um I as a Gen Xer like you
00:26:29
Saxs and and I guess Freeberg and Shimath as well When I saw them building
00:26:35
the case here the Lindsey Grahams you know the Hawks etc reports of WMDs that
00:26:40
were imminent Who knows if that's true These people support terrorists They're trying to assassinate the president
00:26:46
became part of this Uh remember that for last time with Bush Senior spreading democracy in the Middle East the regime
00:26:52
changed stuff That made me all very nervous And I think the most important next step here is that this
00:26:58
administration explain in detail to the American people so we don't have another dem WMD situation Just honestly the
00:27:04
truth like did we hit them did we hit some of them was there imminent was it sort of imminent we just need to have
00:27:11
full disclosure here I don't like the attacking the press for a leak inside of the administration It's the
00:27:16
administration's you know responsibility to not have leaks And it's the press and the opposing party whoever opposes this
00:27:23
action to really vet this And we need that part of the democratic process I hope we don't shut that down and we just
00:27:29
blindly follow you know uh the leader because it went well Because this isn't
00:27:34
over number one Number two it did go well Huge credit to Trump for that If it does go well and he ends the war in
00:27:42
Russia's invasion of Ukraine like give him the peace prize I'm all for it Fantastic But let's get the disclosures
00:27:48
here and let's not blame the press for getting a leak Let's actually look at this and explain to the American people
00:27:54
what we accomplished what didn't get accomplished and what the realistic next step is And I I give him a lot of credit
00:28:00
for telling Israel where the line is and giving the golden bridge to Iran They
00:28:06
will have a revolution on their own timeline but we should not be part of that Right That's the lesson we learned
00:28:11
to your point Saxs We can't be the revolution in Iran They have to come
00:28:16
from the bottom up Absolutely Let me Let me also disagree with one other thing you said which is you you said you were starting to get nervous about the the
00:28:23
the stampede towards war I think you were correctly perceiving what was happening in the media I mean and this
00:28:29
includes Fox News especially Fox News There was all this talk about how easy it would be It' be a cakewalk that the
00:28:35
government was on its last legs that it was weak that it was basically almost toppled We just need to push it over
00:28:40
You're right about the WMD talk the talk about the assassination This is all like
00:28:45
a literally like a carbon copy of the arguments that were made back in 2003
00:28:51
It's the playbook to get us into the Iraq war
But look I think two things are different now Number one is President
00:28:57
Trump is not George W Bush I mean that was made abundantly clear Number two is we now have alternative media that even
00:29:04
though the mainstream media and Fox News was basically acting like this was 2003 You had alternative media and you had
00:29:10
people like Tucker Carlson speaking out and Steve Bannon I have to give him credit on this and others who are who
00:29:16
are pointing this out and making the case that this would not go well And I do think that it's been very helpful to
00:29:22
have those chorus of voices as a rebuttal Yes You know you correctly felt that we were being pushed into war but I
00:29:30
think this was different now because 20 years later people remember what happened at least enough do that they're
00:29:37
able to make the counter case And I think that fortunately we have a decision maker and chief who also
00:29:43
remembers and listens to those arguments All right I think we've made some good progress here Let's move on in the
00:29:49
docket We've got a lot of other uh topics to talk about Obviously oil prices Chimap you had talked about those
00:29:56
in relation to this action You said "Hey if this goes poorly we could be looking at a $100 a barrel oil."
00:30:03
Quite um interestingly while it did spike a little bit up to $74 almost hit your $100 chimoth racing up from the $60
00:30:12
mark you know we come back down now And I think people our energy independence here in the United States makes us not
00:30:18
immune to this but we're somewhat protected And I think that's the great thing about energy independence
00:30:24
But here we are The markets have digested this priced it in processed it
00:30:29
in a way that I think maybe none of us thought it would So maybe you could unpack your thinking now on the market's
00:30:37
reaction to the war The fear that I had was that if there was um protracted
00:30:43
conflict what you effectively would see is a bunch of supply go offline And if
00:30:52
that supply went offline and as long as the demand stayed even roughly the same you would see prices go up My thought
00:30:58
was that the price of oil could double I think Goldman had it slightly under a
00:31:03
doubling So that was definitely the the fear
00:31:08
what folks had going into that weekend But coming out of it this is where I
00:31:14
think you have to be very respectful of the fact that the market is really the sum of many many many millions of
00:31:21
informed opinions And I think what they saw was that Iran was not really in a
00:31:27
position to do anything but capitulate and give up
00:31:32
And I think that what they also saw whether you agree with the Israeli
00:31:37
policy or not was that they had systematically gone from where they are and marched
00:31:45
eastward Essentially they effectively decapitated Hamas They effectively
00:31:51
decapitated Hezbollah They effectively decapitated the Houthis I think finally putting a nail in the
00:31:58
coffin of this Iran nuclear ambition program was not just important for them
00:32:03
but it's critical for Saudi and the UAE You
know MBS had an incredibly powerful
00:32:08
quote which was if Iran gets a nuclear weapon we will have no choice but to get our own Right so by taking all of that
00:32:17
risk off the table what you're now talking about is an enormous supply that
00:32:24
could essentially service world productivity needs unhindered because it's not just Iranian supply You're
00:32:30
talking about Emirati supply and you're talking about Qatari supply and you're talking about Saudi supply So I think
00:32:36
what the market realized was okay now the Middle East is the closest it's ever
00:32:42
been to fully monetizing the oil that they have and to invest
00:32:49
aggressively into their own people The second thing is that Steve Witco
00:32:56
spoke about the fact that you should expect the Abraham Accords to expand So
00:33:02
if you think about that one-two punch not necessarily from a geopolitical lens but from an economic lens the first
00:33:08
punch is neutering the Iranians ability to be chaos monkeys in the region But
00:33:14
the second punch is the one that then now creates normalization across the region with Israel
00:33:21
It double and triples down the ability to monetize oil and start to invest those returns in future projects that
00:33:28
have a much better ROI All of that leads to cheaper energy
and Iran becomes the odd person out here in this new you know
00:33:36
federation of people in the Middle East who want peace and normal relations I think
it's a phenomenal question Jason
00:33:42
but I think that's what the market sniffed out and I think that's what the market is now saying like that this is a
00:33:47
chapter that we can close and move on This could be a big paradigm shift and
00:33:53
framework the major part of this paradigm shift that we're seeing here comes from an investment in energy in
00:34:00
the United States since the Iraq war since the Afghanistan war We now are energy independent We're a net exporter
00:34:07
We've invested in solar We've invested in wind We are doing more drilling nat gas And this week uh I think we saw some
00:34:14
new starts for nuclear as well So this time around when we look at our Middle
00:34:20
East policy it is not informed by our need for that oil Is that correct Fber in your mind well I think you have to
00:34:26
look at it on a global basis Iran exports $60 billion a year and about 55
00:34:34
billion of that goes to China
and that number is up from I believe sub 30% just
00:34:40
a few years ago or sub 20% So the relationship between Iran and China and
00:34:47
the importance of that relationship to China's economy and productivity I think
00:34:52
cannot be understated So independent of the United States on a global stage the
00:34:58
situation with the supply of energy and the partnership on energy with what is
00:35:05
effectively the US's largest rival now is critical to take into account when
00:35:10
doing the calculus on how to resolve forward here Which is also why and I don't think that we have perfect
00:35:15
information I don't think the public has been given perfect information about the statesmanship that's gone on
between the
00:35:22
United States and China or the conversations that gone on at a high level between the US and China or at a
00:35:27
high level between the US and Russia regarding what is the right way to
00:35:33
transition the region When I look at the region and when you'd hear about other leaders in that region speaking publicly
00:35:40
the King of Jordan MBS from Saudi the Omanis from Bahrain all of the other
00:35:47
leaders in that region even the Qataris who seem to kind of try to straddle both sides here they all seem to have a very
00:35:54
strong imperative and incentive to modernize the Middle East to bring those
00:35:59
economies into the global stage to bring them into kind of a modern economy Well Jason I know you've talked about this
00:36:04
and you've visited and the rest of us obviously have relationships there but there's a strong demand and a strong interest in this region and modernizing
00:36:11
And that modernization is going to benefit the world because they will ultimately be net exporters They will
00:36:17
ultimately net net producers of things that everyone else will buy and participate in And they will also be
00:36:22
very big consumers They are already very big buyers of American technology and
00:36:28
American businesses and also big financiers of global capitalism So in
00:36:34
that context I don't think it's just about hey we got to go get the oil or hey we got to go get the energy It's
00:36:40
about how do you balance China's need for energy how do you balance the Russian incentives and how do you help
00:36:46
the rest of that region modernize and I think that's where there's a very complex dance underway that we have very
00:36:52
little insight into the details of those conversations And I'm not going to just sit here and be like very flippant about oh we should do this or we should do
00:36:58
that because there's a lot at play And I think that that is in my opinion the net
00:37:04
calculus the bigger picture calculus that's underway in trying to transition the region
Sax let me ask you a question
00:37:10
here Leveling it up pretty well known The Israelis have nuclear weapons
and
00:37:15
many of them and they have for some time even though they're not part of any of the treaties and they will claim they
00:37:21
don't or or be a little koi about it What is the argument for nobody else in the region being allowed to have one if
00:37:28
the Israelis have many and would you be okay with Saudi having nuclear bombs and
00:37:36
what is the argument we would make to them as the West Americans people who have nuclear
00:37:42
weapons Russia China have them why can't Saudi have them what's your best argument to them of not acquiring them
00:37:48
if is the Israelis have dozens to hundreds
well nuclear proliferation is not in our interest We don't want more
00:37:54
countries getting nuclear weapons Obviously some countries have them but if you use that as the rationalization
00:38:00
for everyone being able to have them then you're going to end up with 200 countries have nuclear weapons So I think the nuclear non-prololiferation
00:38:06
regime is in the interest of the United States We all understand the danger of these weapons The more countries that
00:38:11
have them the more dangerous the world becomes Now it is true that unofficially
00:38:17
the Israelis have nuclear weapons but like you were saying before if Iran gets nukes then Saudi Arabia will be forced
00:38:23
to get nukes and so on down the line And so there will be a domino effect with each country that gets nuclear weapons
00:38:30
More countries around them will feel the need that are threatened to have their own deterrent And the question is just
00:38:37
where you stop this And I think we just want to stop it here We don't want more countries getting nuclear weapons
00:38:43
particularly ones that we have hostile relations with
Yeah And the the last
00:38:48
country to give up their nuclear weapons Ukraine Really bad decision perhaps I think
Well that was in the '90s actually
00:38:56
Yeah
Another country gave up their nuclear weapons program which was Libya Y
and what happened to Gaddafi he got
00:39:03
killed
by rebels who were being backed by the United States after he gave up his nuclear weapons program Yeah
I think
00:39:10
that was a really
they had them though They actually had the weapons not just a program right but
there's some there's
00:39:16
some truth to that but that's a little bit simplifying the situation because what happened is at the end of the Soviet Union there were a bunch of
00:39:22
Soviet nukes that were in Ukraine But as I understand it the launch codes were in
00:39:28
Moscow So these were Soviet nuclear weapons that happened to be on Ukrainian
00:39:33
soil and then when the Soviet Union came apart they were there but they were always under the control of Moscow And
00:39:39
so I don't think that the Ukrainians gave up much because they were never
00:39:45
their nukes It's not clear they could have used them And one final point on this is that it was the Russian
00:39:52
government and the American government that pressured Ukraine to comply because we don't want more countries having
00:39:57
nuclear weapons Okay let's um get on to this Democratic socialist who's on the verge of becoming New York City's mayor
00:40:05
littleknown New York State Assemblyman Zoron Mam Donnie took the internet by storm this week Shocked the world
00:40:11
beating out Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination Here's the poly market chart Just crazy One month ago
00:40:18
Cuomo was at 93% Zoron had a 6% chance My lord what a flip
00:40:27
A couple of things happened that led to this Obviously a bunch of viral moments He's a great speaker Reminds me of Vake
00:40:32
in in that regard Really good uh you know in debates and and speaking publicly Started rising in the polls Got
00:40:39
a ton of endorsements from millennials Gen Z AOC endorsed him as well And uh
00:40:46
now he is mom Donnie is the 75% favorite to beat Eric Adams But looks like Eric
00:40:53
Adams is gonna get a shocking amount of support because people don't want a democratic socialist who's got some
00:41:01
really unique and colorful history of becoming the mayor of one of the
00:41:08
greatest cities in the world my hometown He wants to have free buses Doesn't sound like that big of a deal He wants
00:41:15
to freeze rent and triple the development of affordable housing City-owned government grocery stores That sounds crazy a $30 minimum wage New
00:41:23
York's at$,650 by the way Uh he wants to defund the police replace the cops with social workers in high crime areas A
00:41:29
bunch of really wacky interesting proposals And uh you were I think on to
00:41:36
this early Freedberg in your predictions last year you saw this coming Again if
00:41:42
you listen to the number one podcast in the world you're gonna get this information a year earlier than everybody else That's why we are the
00:41:48
number one podcast in the world Freeberg maybe you talk a little bit about your prediction last year and uh where we are
00:41:54
right now and your reaction for this I don't know perplexing shocking Is this
00:42:00
perplexing shocking or obvious to you for me it feels like actually a little bit of a beginning of a wave that's
00:42:07
going to continue to sweep over this country starting in cities And I think that we're at the very early stages I
00:42:14
think we'll look back and I jokingly say that Kla Harris is going to look like a
00:42:19
conservative candidate pretty soon And I do think that this is a broad kind of
00:42:25
reaction to the economic condition of the United States And I've talked a lot of people don't quite recognize and see
00:42:30
how important the debt and the deficit is with respect to how it's ultimately going to lead to socialism as it has
00:42:37
every single time in history when you've had a free voting democracy a representative democracy that becomes
00:42:42
encumbered with too much debt So Nick if you'll pull up this chart it'll just show you a microcosm of it and
00:42:48
specifically how it played out in New York and how it will continue to play out in cities This is the total amount of student loan debt in the last 20
00:42:55
years is the student loan debt has ballooned from 500 billion to 2 trillion 4 million college graduates per year in
00:43:01
the United States About 40% of them have student loan debt that they leave That means that in the last 20 years 80
00:43:08
million people young people have graduated from college And they've accured $ 1.5 trillion of new debt And
00:43:14
based on the percentage and the distribution that means the average debt for these individuals is sitting around $60,000
00:43:20
So you're a young person Where do those young people go where do they live and remember there's about 32 million of
00:43:26
them They live in cities They don't go back to rural towns Most of that
00:43:31
population sits in cities It sits in New York sits in Los Angeles sits in Seattle
00:43:37
sits in San Francisco sits in Portland and sit in Chicago And what we're seeing
00:43:42
in those cities is a massive political shift People call it left but it's actually quite different than just being
00:43:49
more traditionally left It's really a revolution against the system that brought them to this moment because the
00:43:54
promise that we gave in America the American dream was if you will go to college you will graduate you will have income you will have stability you will
00:44:01
be able to buy a home And what we did is we increased the government's role in making that dream possible And in doing
00:44:08
so we created effectively a system where we gave unrestricted access to capital
00:44:14
which inflated the cost of education People could go to school like Zoran and major in African studies at Bowden
00:44:21
College They could get a a loan and graduate with 200 $300,000 of debt and
00:44:26
then never get a job The guy has not had a real job And this is the truth for 32 million young Americans They find
00:44:33
themselves living in places where they cannot afford to pay their bills every month and they will never get out of the
00:44:38
debt cycle that they were thrust into and believe that they were going to be able to graduate from and excel in the
00:44:45
world and increase They all have what is called negative capital They have debt and they will never be able to get out
00:44:51
of that cycle So where do you turn in that moment you don't go turn to corporations to solve your problems You
00:44:56
don't go turn to your friends and your siblings and your family They're not going to bail you out You turn to the
00:45:03
voting booth and you hear a guy like Zoran show up and say there can be a better path forward The better path
00:45:09
forward is the government can and should do more to help And in doing more to help we will increase government We will
00:45:16
tax the rich We will tax the corporations We will take all of that capital and we will redistribute it in
00:45:22
the form of services and checks and support for all of the people that find themselves unable to take care of
00:45:28
themselves And this becomes a tipping point when the majority of the voter base ends up in that situation where
00:45:34
they're that deeply in need where they have negative capital And that is the situation America finds itself in today
00:45:40
There is no easy answer and there is no easy solution out of this But I can tell you one thing for sure that in
00:45:45
historical perspective we have seen it time and time again across dozens of countries that have embraced socialism
00:45:52
to get out of the debt cycle that ultimately absorbs and and swallows up the young It swallows up every family It
00:45:59
swallows up every person in the working class with debt They're swaddled with it And they all try and get out of it by
00:46:04
increasing government and embracing these socialist concepts And it has never ever worked More government is not
00:46:10
the answer Less government is We can get into that But if you look at the results Zoran won 61 to 39 with college educated
00:46:19
Young people voted for him Old people did not as much White people voted for him because they went to college
00:46:24
Non-white people did not as much At the end of the day young collegeed educated
00:46:29
white people elected this guy and that is the beginning of a wave that will sweep over America And I really do worry
00:46:36
about where this takes us So
way to go for dummies Yeah I mean the you're correct He won
00:46:44
amongst Asians why it's college educated And to put a finer point on it Freeberg
00:46:49
it really isn't just college It's the cost of college Increases in the cost of college degrees have outpaced the wage
00:46:56
growth of entry-level salaries by 10x over the last 20 years You could go
00:47:01
300,000 400,000 not in debt but that might be what you paid for those degrees
00:47:06
in those major cities and you don't believe in capitalism anymore and you believe that you need to tax the rich
00:47:13
Just one warning for people in these states in these cities We saw this sachs
00:47:18
in San Francisco We saw the the the doom spiral You and I worked on the Ches Bodin recall and now they have Dan Lori
00:47:26
there and things are starting to slowly turn around a bit in Los Angeles We saw
00:47:31
this with Karen Bass They didn't vote for Rick Caruso He would have been an amazing mayor They voted for incompetence And these people are voting
00:47:39
for incompetence and a plan that will not work because twothirds of the tax base in New York is paid for by the top
00:47:45
10% who are leaving People will leave They will see that Austin and Miami are
00:47:52
fantastic cities to live in at half the price a third of the price and you get a tax break and you can always go back to
00:47:58
New York and California and hang out for a month and get whatever values left in those cities that hasn't been destroyed
00:48:04
by these socialists and the incompetent people running them Saxs what are your thoughts on what's happening in New York
00:48:11
City specifically well you're right that every generation seems to need to learn
00:48:16
this lesson for themselves because they don't study history and they they don't see that socialism always fails wherever
00:48:22
it's tried San Francisco went through this I mean it was a doom spiral Uh now
00:48:27
I think we've turned the corner LA is in the midst of going through it and a large portion of LA just burned down
00:48:33
because there's no water in the fire hydrants Basically all the public services have been looted and New York
00:48:39
is about to learn this for themselves So it just seems like every generation just has to learn this There's no way to teach them So I do think that that is
00:48:46
one thing that's going on I I do agree with Freeberg that a big underlying root cause here is the student debt is the
00:48:52
fact that these kids have negative capital They've got no skin in the game They graduate from college with
00:48:57
worthless degrees and massive amounts of debt That debt was not used to make
00:49:02
their education better Universities have been using the spiraling tuitions to
00:49:07
fund massive amounts of bureaucracy you know for DEI and woke and all sorts of stuff like that And these kids have no
00:49:15
prospect of getting out of debt or being able to buy a home So they just have no skin in the game And so this is part of
00:49:20
why they're they're turning against capitalism One thing we need to do by the way is we need to make the student
00:49:26
debt dischargeable in bankruptcy is one of the only it's the only kind of debt
00:49:32
that you can't get out of through bankruptcy And if we were to make that change at least these kids would have a
00:49:37
way out
They have no skin in the game The universities have absolutely no incentive to keep prices down and create
00:49:43
a competitive or economic incentive for making sure that their degrees work The only group that possibly could would be
00:49:50
true capital lenders People like banks or underwriters that are saying "Here's a loan because I expect you to be able
00:49:55
to pay it back." There's no underwriting in student loans today There's no underwriting The student loan program
00:50:00
the federal student loan program needs to go away because when it goes away if it goes to zero and people might say "Oh
00:50:06
that's awful You're taking away education." What will happen is the capital markets will flood to fill that hole Banks and lenders will show up and
00:50:13
they will say "You know what we'll underwrite the loans." But they'll underwrite it by saying good colleges get the get get loans and bad colleges
00:50:20
don't Good degrees get the loans bad degrees don't And people that are expected to pay back the loans will now get loans and all of the rest of the
00:50:27
money that's caused everyone to end up in this debt spiral will stop and we'll be able to kind of recover from it
It's
00:50:32
ironic that a problem that is being caused by government is going to lead to
00:50:38
socialism It's going to lead to maximum government which will then create the next spiral of problems But I agree with
00:50:44
you I think this is very sad But let me let me me also say I think there's one other thing going on here which is beyond just sort of the lack of skin of
00:50:51
the game here which is the failure of the Democratic establishment It's
00:50:56
basically completely antiquated desiccated and out of touch And who was
00:51:03
Mam Donnie running against andrew Cuomo who is really a perfect avatar for this
00:51:08
establishment He's a retread He's been around for decades He'd probably be finishing his fourth term as governor
00:51:14
except for a harassment scandal that forces resignation He's 67 which is something of a spring
00:51:21
chicken by the standards of Democrat gerontocracy but he's twice the age of my dami who's 33 And Cuomo hasn't even
00:51:28
lived in New York City for three decades He wanted to mount a political comeback that no one was asking for And the
00:51:34
Democratic establishment just fell in line rather than having a proper contest to choose a less damaged more dynamic
00:51:40
candidate He's a Nepo baby too
right so you know does this sound familiar i mean this is exactly what happened with Biden
00:51:47
is that no one wanted him to run again He was obviously a a very weak candidate
00:51:55
but the Democratic establishment just fell in line and covered up his weaknesses and they use lawfare to take
00:52:00
out his opponents totally rather than trying to find a more dynamic candidate And by the way one of the reasons why
00:52:06
Maami is set to become mayor is because the Democratic establishment used
00:52:11
lawfare against Eric Adams to basically weaken him and take him out over some
00:52:17
plane tickets I thought this was a very weak corruption
There were upgrades There were upgrades even like it was so
00:52:22
insane
It's it's a pretty crazy
pretty crazy
by political scandals This is a really lame one Yeah And it was done
00:52:29
because Eric Adams stepped out of line and was willing to criticize unions and buck unions and he was for the police He
00:52:36
was basically a Democrat who was willing to take contrarian positions on a lot of things and they took him out with
00:52:42
lawfare and that is now they got something much worse
Did you see Chuck Schumer and Bill Clinton put out ringing
00:52:47
endorsements and congratulations to Mandi this morning which you know I think the Overton windows blown open on
00:52:53
this Now I do think that the Democrats to your point Saxs are embracing the socialist agenda as the new agenda that
00:53:01
is clearly going to win the youthful vote for them At a 70 rating they finally woken up to the fact that they
00:53:06
can't have no agenda They can't have nothing that they stand for which is effectively my read on what's been the
00:53:13
case for the last year and a half two years for the Democratic Party They now have something to stand for which is these principles of socialism which they
00:53:19
call justice and equity and fairness and redistribution of capital and all these other features that were kind of rung
00:53:25
out at the Mandani campaign and everyone embraced and ran to The Democratic leadership perked up like a bunch of
00:53:30
prairie dogs popping out of the ground like this is now going to be the way we're going to win Great We're all over
00:53:36
it Let's do it
They're accepting the inevitable Look the Democratic party right now is the Democratic
00:53:41
establishment is in the process of being remade now the way that the Republican
00:53:46
establishment was remade a decade ago So remember a decade ago the Republican party was dominated by people like Dole
00:53:54
and McCain and Romney and various Bush retreads
and it was antiquated and out
00:54:00
of touch and Trump came in there and remade it as a nationalist populist
00:54:05
Republican party And I think in a similar way you now have these socialists who've come in in the Democratic party and they are remaking
00:54:12
the Democratic party in the same way that that Trump replaced neoonservatism with populist nationalism They are
00:54:18
replacing neoliberalism with you could call it populist socialism
Yes
And those
00:54:23
are the choices for the future Let me tell you you can basically go with you're going to have a a populist
00:54:29
socialism in the Democratic party or you're going to have a populist nationalism in the Republican party And to all my friends on the tech right your
00:54:36
choices in the future are not going to be neoliberalism or neoconservatism It's going to be do you want republican nationalism or do you want democrat
00:54:42
socialism those are going to be your choices
So I would get with the program here because your choices are MAGA or
00:54:49
socialism Which one do you want
i there is a third way But Chimath what are your thoughts here in terms of there is
since
00:54:55
we're here there is actually a path out of here which is telling the truth to young people Your college degree is not
00:55:02
going to get you an amazingly high-paying job What will get you an amazingly high-paying job is excellence
00:55:10
learning skills and having radical self-reliance Being reliant on the state being reliant on the government is a
00:55:16
path to nowhere It's a path to pain and suffering to constantly be looking for
00:55:21
this guy to create a bread line in his own series of Costos which is the stupidest thing I've ever heard That he
00:55:28
thinks that you're going to be able to create in New York City a series of
00:55:33
government-run stores Does anybody have any sense to the arc of history that he wants to create breadlines and and
00:55:40
literally have the state provide you with food at this promised discount it's absurd Leave the state Vote with your
00:55:48
feet go to Austin go to Miami go to another state where radical
00:55:53
self-reliance and your ability to create your own opportunities and not get suckered into this debt spiral That is
00:55:59
the path out and that will be a new party that will emerge at some point Some rational group of people are going
00:56:04
to say get skills don't get debt Shimoth what are your thoughts on all this and then we'll move on to the next subject
I
00:56:10
think the three of you guys are a little exaggerated to be quite honest I mean all the rhetoric sounds very clever but I don't think it's accurate I think the
00:56:17
way that I see it is more nuanced than this I think what's happened is that
00:56:23
Zoron Mdani is very smart and is running a playbook
00:56:29
to win like all politicians do based on a formula that has been winning in large
00:56:36
cities for the past decade And so I don't know if he really
00:56:41
believes in this rhetoric or not but it's worth noting that most of his platform is copied and pasted from
00:56:48
London and Chicago So the things that he's talked about universal basic free meals affordable
00:56:54
housing freezing the cost of transportation public grocery stores all three of you are reacting like these
00:57:00
things were pulled out of thin air They're not These were the public platforms of the mayors who have won in
00:57:07
London in Vienna in Havana Cuba and in Chicago So I think the reason why this
00:57:16
works is that these are small pockets in the end of a large political spectrum Even though New York feels big it isn't
00:57:23
that big in the context of the United States And what you see is that when you try to take those policies in a city
00:57:31
take London and then level it up at the national level there's a quick schism that
00:57:38
happens So if you look at labor and labor trying to scale up the policies of a Sadi Khan in London throughout the
00:57:44
country Labor is now at the absolute the Labor Party the absolute lowest approval
00:57:51
ratings in the UK of any party ever in this moment in time after an election So
00:57:58
I think what you're probably seeing is quite a sophisticated AB test And I
00:58:05
think that the political wingmen and the money people that want to be in control
00:58:11
know how to run candidates on platforms that can win And this is a clear winning
00:58:16
strategy in left-leaning major metropolitan centers So what I would say
00:58:22
just to refine what you guys are saying is that this platform is not new
00:58:28
I've seen it for the last decade I think you're going to see it for the next few decades it doesn't work
00:58:35
And so you're going to see the same results in New York City that you've already seen in London which has become
00:58:42
unlivable sadly One of my favorite cities in the world If you don't believe it go visit there
00:58:48
Chicago which I haven't been to in 15 years and will never go to It's a disaster
So my my point is it just
00:58:56
doesn't work So you can win It actually isn't very effective and it
00:59:01
doesn't scale to the national level
When do you think it returns Jimat like what's the reversal like do you think
00:59:06
the reversal is everyone has some experience with crime is the reversal
00:59:13
like the city's bankrupt is the reversal your house is burning You don't have you're unemployed Unemployment hits with
00:59:20
water in the pipes
I'll tell you something which is my view My view is much more basic It's it's much less
00:59:26
sophisticated than I think what you're saying My extremely simpleton view of things is that humans swing in a
00:59:35
pendulum-like fashion between poles and over multi-deade arcs you go between the
00:59:42
thing that works to the thing that should work now because it's not the thing before So I suspect what happens
00:59:48
is that New York takes a 40 or 50-year journey and at some point it will look
00:59:53
like New York of the 80s And at that point you'll have an Ed Cook-l like
00:59:58
figure You'll have a David Dinkens-like figure You'll have a Michael Bloomberg like figure You'll have the broken
01:00:04
windows theory of policing reemerge as the cause celeb
01:00:09
and the cycle will repeat itself So I tend to think that these things are just
01:00:14
between two poles We've spent a lot of time in this more independent self-reliance poll
01:00:21
A lot of people will want to experiment with this other thing It just doesn't prove to work And in the absence of
01:00:28
something cataclysmically bad I don't think it's going to change
Having lived there and experienced Dinkens and you
01:00:34
know Cotch to Dinkens and then Giuliani to Bloomberg I can tell you it's going to be reallying miserable to be in a
01:00:42
Dinkens era The city was chaos It was dangerous If you got off the wrong subway stop it was going to result in
01:00:48
you getting robbed
at gun They're gonna have to go through They're gonna have to go through that That's London today The
01:00:54
the London subway cost $35 to go from the suburbs of London into the center of London $35 Okay that is ridiculous right
01:01:04
you can't walk with your cell phone in central London anymore cuz there are more cell phone thefts than anything
01:01:09
There's knife attacks everywhere Why is that
01:01:14
well you've had an agenda that was meant to be this socialist left-leaning let's resolve all these problems for everybody
01:01:20
and it turns out to not work at a very basic factual level and every time it's been repeated over the last 15 years it
01:01:27
still hasn't worked So if you think that this guy is going to be the exception that proves the rule in New York I wish
01:01:33
him the best of luck
But I would be short New York real estate I think it's going to crash and burn and then we'll
01:01:40
pick up the pieces and we'll reset All right let me pick up on on something Jamal said about U M what's his name
01:01:46
zoran say the Zoron Do
you guys remember that movie Big and
01:01:52
he would go to the arcade and wasn't it called Ask Zoron and you and Zoron
01:01:58
ask Zoron can I have free pizza
i'm going to run for New York mayor and I'm offering everybody free pizza and bagels
01:02:06
I'm going to win Let me let me let me pick up on on what said about Zoran running an effective campaign because it
01:02:12
is true And I think one of his best moments was during a debate where the
01:02:17
moderator asked the candidates "Which foreign country would you visit first as
01:02:23
mayor of New York City?"
And the other candidates said "Ukraine or Israel?"
01:02:29
They're basically virtue signaling And then they get to Mamani and he said "Nowhere I wouldn't go anywhere I would
01:02:35
stay in New York City I would work for the people here I wouldn't be going to foreign capitals
And he just crushed
01:02:41
that answer
Now his political solutions his programs are not going to work But
01:02:46
the reason why he's catching fire is partly because he is putting New York first The same way that President Trump
01:02:53
is putting America first The American people are sick and tired of the
01:02:58
politicians focusing on far away places instead of their problems at home Yes it's like the Biden administration going
01:03:05
off and defending the border of Ukraine while leaving the border of the United States wide open And I think that even
01:03:12
you know over the last couple weeks you saw that substantial majorities of the American people did not want to get into
01:03:19
a new Middle Eastern war
And I think this is the failure of both the neoliberals and the neoconservatives
01:03:25
which aren't that far apart They are clinging to this postw World War II fantasy of America being this global
01:03:32
empire where we have to be the global policeman while America back home is collapsing or at least rotting
suffering
01:03:38
and they suffering they want the politicians to be focusing on our problems back
100% and Karen Bass is
01:03:45
that moment like if you need to understand that moment she's in Ghana she knew this place was going to go on
01:03:50
fire she extends her trip she doesn't come back like just to the highest
01:03:56
degree all All right There's a lot of other stuff on um the docket I I we could go two ways but I I think Freeberg
01:04:02
I want to get you involved since I know you got to get to a meeting Can we go to the AI story which I think you would care most about or you want to go Marcus
01:04:08
Freeberg lady's choice Freeberg you choose
Or do you want me to do Science Corner real quick cuz then you guys can keep going
I love Science Corner
01:04:15
Absolutely Uh ready guys it's time for a bathroom break I'm sorry Science corner Uh for
It's time for Sax Is that funny
01:04:22
here we go I don't get why that's funny Two One
Science
He's taking a leap I
01:04:29
think he's taking a leap in a bottle Did he finish the tequila bottle sacks Get back on camera I don't get it
01:04:37
I need the head of science He's drinking That's it When Science Corner starts we
01:04:42
all do a double of that allin premia premium tequila tequila
So smooth It
01:04:48
makes you forget about science corner right it even makes Science Corner less sufferable
I'm not feeling any pain
No
01:04:54
pain
No pain
Zach you know you're in charge of science for the government right
i am
01:05:01
Under duress Under duress
No that's that's Michael Pratzios I just do my two issues I've got AI and crypto
All right
01:05:08
Listen Shout out to our sponsor this week Nicotine Chilled Mint The reason my moderation is so on point
Are we doing
01:05:15
Are we doing one of those with with I I'm doing it twice a day I did two So far in this episode
you're hooked on app
01:05:21
now
Are we getting paid for that or are you getting paid for that
no I thought use the promo code JCAL and get two
01:05:28
extra free of the
Nick We're not doing any private promos on this show
We are I have a private editor
He's got his own
01:05:34
side deals He's got his own side deals Exactly
He's doing a side deal right now He's doing his deal
It's called Wet Your
01:05:40
Beak If you want to make money you share with the group That's how it works
I'm just giving a shout out to my guy who
01:05:45
drives our ratings He's like the guy at the valet stand who's putting the tips in his own pocket instead of putting them in the kitty
It's called
01:05:52
entrepreneurship It's called entrepreneurship You want your car out front
Nick I want I want to bleep I want
01:05:58
to bleep and blur out all of that stuff Yeah Pixelate this Just pixelate it
You guys want to talk about age reversal
01:06:04
okay Yeah let's talk about age reversal while I hit this
As is the case with
01:06:10
most cutting edge science nowadays it is coming out of China not out of the United States So this research study was
01:06:16
done on age reversal We've talked about using these Yamanaka factors to change
01:06:21
the epigenome of cells and make them youthful again In this particular case the study was done on engineering stem
01:06:30
cells that were then placed into the bodies of monkeys and reverse the age of these monkeys on the order of what would
01:06:36
be the equivalent in humans of several decades of age reversal It's a pretty amazing and astounding result So cell
01:06:42
therapy is the modality that would be kind of employed at scale for humans to utilize this tool There's a lot of work
01:06:48
that's been done in age reversal in mice some work in primates some work in
01:06:53
humans now and there's obviously a few startups doing this based on the studies and research around Yamanaka factors So
01:06:59
kind of changing the epigenome and effectively getting cells to act youthful again In this particular case
01:07:07
this team focused on a specific gene that it is known that when this gene is
01:07:13
expressed or overexpressed meaning the gene is turned on it actually creates a whole bunch of signaling molecules
01:07:20
little tiny molecules that then get absorbed by other cells and tell those
01:07:25
cells to start to act young again and reset those cells And that gene is called FOX03
01:07:31
So what this research team did is they took stem cells And they engineered them using crisper
01:07:38
to get them to overexpress FOX3 And so now these cells start making this FOX3
01:07:43
protein And when that cell starts making that FOX3 protein it actually makes a whole bunch of other molecules little
01:07:50
small proteins little molecules They then get packaged up into what are called exoomes These are like little
01:07:56
packets that get spun out of the cell and they get absorbed by other cells and trigger those cells we don't know how we
01:08:02
don't know why necessarily to start acting young again So they engineered these stem cells overexpressed FOX03 and
01:08:09
then put these stem cells in these monkeys And these monkeys were kind of the equivalent of being 60 years old And
01:08:16
then they looked at what happened So what happened well they looked at tissue they looked at blood and they did MRIs
01:08:23
and scans of the brain And what they found is that the monkeykey's brains effectively started to get completely
01:08:28
rewired and act like young brains again They were able to increase their memory increase their responsiveness Their age
01:08:35
related atrophy reversed So their brains actually grew Uh their bone started to
01:08:40
grow their muscle started to grow their blood cells started to reverse aging signals So across bone degeneration
01:08:47
reversed They looked at 61 different tissues from 10 distinct systems in the uh the bodies of these monkeys after
01:08:54
they received the stem cell treatment and uh 54% of the tissue examined showed
01:08:59
reversal of age In the case of lungs they saw in monkeys it was a four-year age reversal which is 12 years in humans
01:09:06
Skin reversed by 6 years which is the equivalent of 18 years in humans So imagine a 60-year-old person taking this
01:09:12
suddenly they're 40 years old in their skin skeletal muscle went by 5 years in
01:09:18
the monkeys which is the equivalent of 15 years in humans So imagine going from being 60 years old to having the body of
01:09:24
a 45year-old in terms of muscles the spleen the brain all across these
01:09:29
different systems They saw significant signals of age reversal And then they identified these little exosomes These
01:09:36
are like little sacks that are spun out of the cell and then they go into other
01:09:41
cells and they start to trigger all of this age reversal cascade that happens And by the way they saw no side effects
01:09:47
They saw no negative health effect There was no increase in cancer These are the sorts of things you typically look for
01:09:52
And in tissue in uh blood cells in MRI across the board they saw age reversal
01:09:59
So it was a really kind of incredible result And I think that it opens up the door for this idea of using cell therapy
01:10:05
based on stem cells that are engineered to be injected into blood to actually reverse aging in humans And I think that
01:10:11
we should expect over the next couple of years these sorts of trials to kind of begin to see if we can see similar
01:10:16
results There's a lot of background work by the way in FOX3 in this particular gene A lot of background work in engineering stem cells A lot of
01:10:23
background work obviously in Yamanaka factor and other age reversal that predicated this But this particular
01:10:28
paper I think put a lot of things together and showed some some pretty nice results
Do you think Yamanaka factors
01:10:35
are the thing still or do you think that there's going to be a lot of other genetic manipulations that
01:10:43
advance age reversal before Yamanaka factors do the latter is more of this
01:10:48
what we call like a complex cascade of proteins and molecules that we haven't identified yet that we don't know how or
01:10:54
why they do what they do That's what we just saw with this study We don't know what's in those exosome sacks and we
01:11:00
don't know why they cause other cells to reverse their age We don't quite understand the mechanism It's really
01:11:06
hard So I think that this becomes sort of call it an easier path Whereas with
01:11:11
the Yamanaka factors if you apply too much the cells don't just rejuvenate
01:11:16
they can become you know cancerous
Let me let me ask it more directly Other than the novelty of all of this do you
01:11:24
think there will be something in the market some injectable or something that's average people like us can take
01:11:31
in the next 5 or 10 years to solve a problem that we have or to live longer
01:11:37
with higher health
yes there are clinicals underway right now and I know
01:11:42
of the clinical trials that are underway like in stage three you're saying phase three clinical trials
early stage one in
01:11:48
humans
like 1A Yeah very early
So maybe a decade from now
I think that's right
01:11:54
Well look I mean let's see what the FDA does but the FDA is trying to accelerate outcomes here as you know
Blake Buyers
01:12:00
came to my house for poker He's sponsoring a study at UCSF which I
01:12:05
thought was incredible You know the gene that allows Donald Trump to sleep four hours
Yeah
they've isolated that gene
01:12:12
Yeah
Clinton had that gene too and Blake is sponsoring a trial to basically
01:12:20
edit a handful of subjects who want that gene to see if they can sleep 4 hours
01:12:26
and be rested So I don't know if you guys know this and he explained this to me and it makes so much sense but I
01:12:31
didn't realize it We sleep 20 years of our life we're sleeping
Yeah
And so if
01:12:37
you can cut it in half you get an extra 10 years of living If you think about it like that way that is an incredible
01:12:44
reason to you know do the gene editing to get the Trump gene
01:12:49
But the the thing that nobody knows what the
Well this is all day and play poker
01:12:55
all night
The thing that they don't know is you know Trump and Clinton were born with that gene from day one And what
01:13:01
they don't know is what could go wrong if you injected and manipulated yourself in the at the age of 30 or 40 or 50
Yeah
01:13:07
of course But wouldn't it be incredible if you could all of a sudden only sleep four or
01:13:12
five hours and be completely rested
well do you remember at the All-In Summit Vicky Pollock she gave a talk on this
01:13:18
gene That was her opening piece I mean that's definitely in site lab I know there's a bunch of labs working on that exact gene target but this this was just
01:13:25
amazing because this is a cell therapy So you can kind of think about getting an injection done You get an infusion
01:13:30
done of these stem cells and all of a sudden your skin is 20 years younger It's incredible
01:13:37
Like my actually plays out your foreskin Yeah if you have it
01:13:42
I kept it cuz it's like it's like a sheath It's like a sheath for the anaconda Like a sleeping bag
It's a It's like a
01:13:50
sleeping bag Free
Okay Very good
It's like a man
01:13:58
sleeping in a sleeping bag
Sleeping
01:14:03
with like a little hood
We're back folks We're back It's been a strange six months but the pot is officially backed
01:14:11
We are so back The NASDAQ's at an alltime high We've got IPOs The wrath of
01:14:17
Lena's over He's pandering with his dog Science Corn is back Sachs is double
01:14:22
fisting
I'm double fisting
I mean tequila is so good
We got to get some bottles for Vegas this weekend
We got to
01:14:29
get you a double straw Hey David can you send somebody to the order to my plane with some bottles or no
01:14:36
please Do you have an extra few
i I only have this one at home but we have some We have them
here
Actually Freeberg I I
01:14:43
brought two bottles to the Bay Area so I can take them from my house I'll bring them
Yeah
Also uh Nick just take a note
01:14:50
Can I get one of those bottles just deliver it to United Flight 376
01:14:55
uh to Vegas from
I'll be in C2C terminal 2
01:15:02
If you could send it to the Centurion Lounge I just got upgraded to the Centurion
01:15:08
Lounge Um
also [ __ ] the Centurion
Did you get the Did you Did you follow up with the guys from Robin Hood to get the
01:15:14
gold card
you didn't get a gold card yet well he was the only one Vlad texted me and said "Hey
Freeberg's the only He's
01:15:20
the only best without it."
So the only get one
Absolutely
Your invite got lost
01:15:26
in the mail
Gold card
Oh look I have mine here Here I have mine
But you know where this came from this came from
01:15:33
the startup that I funded that got acquired by Robin Hood So those guys did a great job
So now you got double Robin
01:15:38
Hood shares You got it from that from Launchp and Sid Great job
Great job It's it's an it's a great app by the way And
01:15:45
if you move your money into there they give you and your crypto they give you like 102%
And shout out to shout out to
01:15:52
Brian Armstrong I'm getting my Coinbase Bitcoin card
Oh they have a coin Oh
I
01:15:59
thought you were saying you were watching the all You get 4% You get 4% cash back in Bitcoin
I mean wow
I'm I'm
01:16:06
going to buy a another Global 7500 Like $7 million You're now happy I mean that
01:16:12
was the saddest day of your life You got rid of the 7500 I mean that plane is expensive So
it's
01:16:19
not like Jamat when are you going back from Italy he's like I'm coming back on this date I was like okay I'm coming out 10 days before that I'm flying home with
01:16:25
you I booked my trip on Jamat's return flight on the 7500 That is a beautiful
01:16:31
plane So I I actually flew on that recently cuz my plane broke down and I charged a 7500 and man that is a
01:16:38
gorgeous plane
It's a great plane
Did you see the
It's a little overkill to be quite honest with you
It was It was a
01:16:44
little overkill
My favorite was that you know you have two tables for dinner and there's a leaf that goes in between the
01:16:50
two and you make a full table for six My lord
By the way you guys do you know
01:16:57
how good Starlink is on these airplanes now incredible
I flew to Toronto and then Toronto back to LA I didn't miss a
01:17:05
beat I had Starlink I was doing Zooms I was making phone calls
I have never been
01:17:12
more productive And then I was just watching YouTube And it's like I was on the ground in my living room It's crazy
01:17:18
I think the only thing that you should be searching for when you're flying is
01:17:24
is it Argus Platinum yes And does it have Starlink i It's the only thing
I I
01:17:29
was on the first one I was on Elon's playing with it when he first put it on and it was nuts He was playing Diablo
01:17:35
and I'm watching Netflix at the same time No latency I'm watching 4K Netflix
01:17:41
I was streaming It was bonkers And United the entire fleet's going to have
01:17:47
my preferred airline Uh I think it's like this could change productivity You think about the flight to the Middle
01:17:53
East or Singapore Asia Japan when I go skiing in January with Tucker all that is now going to be
01:18:01
productive hours and then we're not going to sleep So it's like you get two careers You could be a podcaster and a
01:18:06
venture capitalist
That's it That's crazy
All right The stock market is nearing a record high In fact Uber hit a
01:18:12
record high today just two months after the big uh Trump tariff chaos and the
01:18:19
market going down 15 30% We've had a full recovery from Trump's liberation
01:18:25
day tariff announcement Yeah market might even be up 1 2 3 4%
01:18:31
Since then they called it a stunning turnaround at your favorite network
01:18:36
Sachs CNN called it a stunning turnaround Lots of different things are
01:18:41
contributing to this Obviously you got the ceasefire in the Middle East You've got the trade deals with UK and a truce
01:18:49
with China NASDAQ 100 is at an all-time
01:18:55
high You know there's there's also with these tech companies the perfect storm
01:19:00
M&A is back on the menu People are buying companies again That equals growth People are continuing to lay off
01:19:06
the dead weight So you're having earnings rise And then the product announcements coming out of big tech
01:19:12
which I think you sort of alluded to that American companies are firing on all cylinders earlier in the program Chimath all of this is amazing The AI
01:19:20
trade is on So this all equals though However big controversy Freedberg
01:19:28
What's the point of cutting rates if we're at an all-time high and uh employment is somewhat full there are
01:19:35
some um concerns there We'll get into it but what are your thoughts here on the
01:19:40
market and then you know Trump is going hard at pal saying he's going to fire him saying he's an idiot he's stupid
01:19:46
blah blah blah this is the guy he placed by the way so freeber what are your thoughts here and then we'll go to you I'm not sure that equity market prices
01:19:54
going up is necessarily the best indicator of where we are
01:20:00
because we did have negative GDP growth in Q1 arguably there was a lot of tariff
01:20:05
blipping happening in Q1 one but there's a real question on this GDP growth
01:20:11
outlook for the rest of this year and we're still running a modest inflation
01:20:16
When you combine those two and you combine the government deficit right now there's an argument to be made that
01:20:23
we're actually seeing assets inflate not necessarily So multiples are going up M
I think that
01:20:29
may actually be a result of kind of an indication that we expect rates to cut
01:20:34
that we expect to increase the money supply and um again remember when you
01:20:40
end up in this debt death spiral all assets go up in value they all
01:20:45
increase because you start to flood things with cash and as you flood things with printed money when you start to
01:20:51
print more money everything goes up in price So one argument here might be that we're actually not necessarily seeing an
01:20:57
improvement in the fundamental business environment We're not seeing record revenue across the board As we talked
01:21:03
about last week the S&P 493 are really struggling relative to the uh MAG 7
01:21:10
and there's a really kind of questionable outlook ahead for the vast majority of equity cap out there So I I
01:21:18
would say that there might be a bit of an inflationary aspect to this not necessarily just a pure like business performance upgrade that that we're
01:21:25
saying
All right we got Dr Doom's position I mean that respectfully Uh but give us the other side Shimoth if you have one
Yeah I mean look if I was a
01:21:32
betting man which I am
you are I think the the free money trade here is
01:21:39
to be levered long I think you can make a lot of money right now Why is that
01:21:45
the first chart I want to show you is the velocity of money So what is this this is the M2 money supply It's a
01:21:51
measure of how much money is circulating in the economy What this shows is the
01:21:57
impact of rates where we were able to start to slow down and contract the
01:22:02
money supply But then as you saw as the economy stabilized and people started to project
01:22:08
was possible in 18 to 24 months you started to see money coming back into the system That's what has given a bid
01:22:16
to the equity markets That's great because a percentage of this capital gets allocated into things that can
01:22:23
generate a superior return to money markets And that's where the bid to the equity market came from So you would say
01:22:31
well where does it go from here the next chart Nick if you just give the second one is look at how much money and again
01:22:37
you can just look at the last five years Look at how much money is sitting in money market funds
01:22:44
And what this starts to show you is you have trillions and trillions of dollars of dry powder on the sidelines that will
01:22:52
need to find a home I think that Jerome Powell is in an
01:22:58
increasingly untenuous situation because he will be looked at as
01:23:04
politicizing the office of the Federal Reserve There is enough data that can
01:23:09
justify cutting rates If you cut rates and we've talked about this before two
01:23:15
things will happen Number one is people will take some amount of money out of the money market funds because they will
01:23:22
want to go and seek superior returns somewhere else It will increase the velocity of money at the same time You
01:23:29
put those two things together that is a bid to the equity markets And so if
01:23:35
we're at an all-time high today with rates at 4 and a.5% and Powell back
01:23:41
against the wall to cut the only road from here is probably up
01:23:48
And so you could see this thing get rerated quite aggressively And then the
01:23:54
question is do you do it where you manage your risk and you're short some stuff or do you just say you know what
01:24:01
I'm just going to take it all up and take most of my shorts off and let the thing go I think that if Powell starts
01:24:06
an aggressive cutting program either because he has to or because he's trying
01:24:12
to keep his job I mean man you could see the S&P at 7,000
01:24:18
very quickly Sachs uh yeah obviously you're a member
01:24:23
of the administration so I don't want to make sure people know you're not speaking for the administration but um I
01:24:30
guess your personal thoughts on the markets here and what the right
01:24:35
thing for Powell to do is because he does seem to be in an untenable position He's being criticized super heavily He
01:24:42
might even have his replacement announced you know before his term is even up in the spring And gosh you know
01:24:50
what what is the reason for Powell to cut rates if everything's going so well
01:24:55
and then he would look like maybe he poured gasoline on what appears to be you know a pretty robust economic fire
01:25:04
right now that's not the right way to look at it The question is just what's the inflation rate relative to interest
01:25:10
rates and inflation has come down all the way to I think 2.4% So it's way down
01:25:16
We're back to a two handle I think inflation has largely been licked and it's time to start lowering interest
01:25:21
rates and that will be good for the economy There's no reason for rates to be as high as they are It'll also be good in terms of financing our debt So I
01:25:29
think that it is time for Pal to act and I think he's being overly cautious here
01:25:34
He's being slow here Just like he was slow to raise at the beginning of the cycle he's being slow to cut at the end
01:25:39
of the cycle And again I think he's just afraid of being proven wrong here But I
01:25:44
think that the timing is right to start the cuts Now to go back to the question of how do you trade this market i mean I
01:25:51
have a very simple idea which is anytime that the media tries to sew doom or
01:25:58
spread panic about the Trump administration's policies that's a good time to buy We saw this when Jim Kramer
01:26:04
started touting the Black Monday that was coming and Larry Summers has been out there constantly with his TDS
01:26:11
Whenever the media puts these experts on to tell you that there's chaos and doom
01:26:16
that has proven to be an excellent time to buy the dip So I think this is a very easy way to trade the Trump presidency
I
01:26:24
mean the conspiracy corner folks are like Trump's doing this on purpose You know the volatility in the market is
01:26:29
helpful in some way but it does seem to be the playbook I'm calling this I don't mean this in a derogatory way Again I
01:26:35
don't like the term taco because I think that's trying to go Trump into or or
01:26:41
frame what he's doing as not thoughtful I think it is thoughtful I think he does shock and bore He does something
01:26:46
shocking He pins his negotiation to that Whether it's what's happening in Iran whether it's what's happening with
01:26:53
immigration or what happened with tariffs he starts with a bang and then he falls back to a reasonable position
01:26:59
that the markets can digest So you just have to take a 90-day view of everything he's doing and then you'll be fine When
01:27:06
he says you know we're going to give people 150% tariff just cut it by 2/3 or
01:27:11
make it reciprocal fine When he says he's going to deport 20 million people cut it to 500 to a million whatever
01:27:17
Obama did and that's where it's going to wind up And he says we're going to smash Iran it's going to be like very
01:27:23
strategic and then he's going to give them the path off So he he's actually playing a very interesting perhaps dare
01:27:29
I say sophisticated approach this time which seems chaotic but it might there might be a method to the madness Yeah
01:27:37
Well I think the media has an incentive to spread this ide they have an
01:27:42
incentive to hype the chaos basically They're the ones who are creating the panic and they bring on all these fake
01:27:48
networks who've got TDS to basically hype this narrative So my point is just that when the media is spreading this
01:27:54
this narrative that's a great time to buy because it's an opportunity for those of us who don't have TDS
It's not
01:28:00
even TDS it's ratings I'll just tell you right there being a media executive you know for most of my life if you want to
01:28:07
work the left you say Trump's out of control look at this chaos he's a dictator yada yada ratings go up If
01:28:13
you're Fox you take the other side you get ratings it equals advertising You don't really have to think about it want
01:28:19
to talk to independent media like all in podcast Tucker people on the left people on the right who are actually having
01:28:25
first principal discussions about this
I think it is TDS though
I mean there are some members
no but like just as we were
01:28:32
taping there's just a whole deluge of economic data that came out the GDP
01:28:37
print for Q1 came in at minus.5% I mean so how could anybody interpret
01:28:46
for Q1 so how could anybody at the Fed or in the media covering the Fed
01:28:53
not understand that by the way and we were talking about this just like I said that we're probably going to print like
01:28:58
a threehandle on GDP in Q2 we also talked about the fact that we were probably going to have a negative GDP
01:29:03
print in Q1 So we've been knowing it for months We've basically been calling it right So why is there an inability to
01:29:11
just look at the data and just say the obvious truthful thing
so I think I
01:29:17
think
whether whether whatever you think of Trump it doesn't really matter
Rates should not be where they are today They
01:29:23
should be 50 to 100 basis points lower Period It's categorical
He'll do it in September He's going to do a 25 in
01:29:28
September It's obvious
There's no logical explanation for it There is a
01:29:33
subjective explanation and that's political I I think he just after the tariff stuff
01:29:39
he said let's just push it out two month two two two months get some more data and then we'll cut it in September What's the difference between a sepy
01:29:46
August cut or a September it's probably not going to be meaningful in the arc of history
But if you're if you're against the tariffs and you're buying into you
01:29:52
know Jim Kramer's doom narrative or Larry Summer's doom narrative that's more of a reason to cut
If you believe
01:29:59
the doom narrative that he's not going to relent yes But if he does relent and
01:30:04
he negotiates it I think you would say stay the course and see what happens Anyway all of this is on the margins The
01:30:10
truth is these companies are very strong Entrepreneurship is strong and the debt's the issue So we we still got to
01:30:16
address the debt We'll see if he does that in
But to Sha's point the the last year of the Biden economy was very weak
01:30:24
especially the last six months of the Biden economy such that Q1 was negative GDP growth So President Trump came into
01:30:30
office inheriting a very weak economy Since then he's done a bunch of things to turn it around
Yeah But there's
01:30:36
obviously
there's no reason to have interest rates at What are interest rates at right now it's five still at 5%
01:30:42
Let's pull up the poly market just for real quick guide where he uh I think the the market thinks 2550 bips is like the
01:30:49
80% I haven't looked at it in a week Here's September What are we seeing here
01:30:56
59% 25 bips 8% 50 bips So you put those together it's two3 chance he's going to
01:31:02
cut in September obviously And what does October say
yeah So
is there a poly
01:31:07
market on who replaces Powell Nick is there anything in there about who replaces Powell
he's going to announce it I mean I I think he'll just announce
01:31:14
it and he'll make Bessant People seem to like Bessant He feels like a steady hand
01:31:20
He feels like he's got experience It's obvious who's who is the most likely new Fed chair or something like that I think
01:31:25
it's best Here we go
Oh there it is Chris Waller Really huh
best only 14% I
01:31:32
think that's your sleeper right there But it's it's Listen there's one two three four five six people with 14 to
01:31:38
22% So this is a
Bess only at 14% Yeah I agree That seems low Hasset's at 18 I
01:31:43
mean I work with both Bess and Hasset and I know them both well and they both be great
They both would be great right
01:31:49
they both have a ton of experience
a lot of time in the game which is what you
01:31:54
Worsh has been in the game for a long time He really knows how the markets work He He
I mean this Yeah Chop Is this
01:32:01
a case of or Sachs is this a case of picking you you have a bench Do you want
01:32:07
to move Bessant out of where he's doing a good job
i think I think Bessant's crushing at Treasury I would love to keep him in the job So
yeah I think
01:32:14
that's the decision right
i think I think the thing is elevating Waller has that's an interesting set of
01:32:19
implications Worsh is you know very consumate and capable of doing the job The question is does Trump believe he's
01:32:24
MAGA or does Trump believe he's more established Republican
sorry there's another name on the list that we forgot You want Musk or Trump
oh Sumat is in
01:32:32
there Oh okay Let's see Okay Well let's get those numbers up Those are rookie
01:32:37
numbers You can make 99.8 I think I think that I'm I'm part of a
01:32:42
cascade that happens if something else happens But
you put $1,000 in and uh you'll make three bucks Yeah All right
01:32:49
Let's end on this uh AI training This is a super important story we talked about here Anthropic received a favorable
01:32:55
ruling in an AI copyright case Bunch of caveats here Federal judge out of San Francisco ruled Anthropic use of
01:33:02
copyrighted books and AI training was legal if if the company had purchased or
01:33:07
licensed the books through legal means However the ruling doesn't apply to more than 7 million books that Enthropic
01:33:14
allegedly to put that in there obtained through quote unquote pirated means People
01:33:20
obviously have been training data off of a lot of what's on the web and a lot of
01:33:25
that stuff might have not been officially licensed Author's guild is
01:33:32
going to appeal the decision uh which came out of the district court in Northern California Interestingly a day
01:33:39
after this ruling Microsoft was sued by a group of authors alleging it used a collection of over 200,000 pirated books
01:33:45
uh in its Megatron AI model Interestingly on top of that I did a licensing deal Harper's business did a
01:33:51
deal or Harper's with Microsoft and I got paid 2500 bucks to license Angel for
01:33:56
their model So there are also legal routes
01:34:02
No literally for the whole book Uh and I did it I know it's crazy No everybody got the same deal They licensed like I
01:34:09
don't know 5,000 books or something
per word Per word Well I used to get $3 a word back in the day but actually for
01:34:15
that book what did I get got $25 a word I guess um with a million-dollar deal So
01:34:21
Meta also prevailed against a group of notable authors including Sarah Silverman
Now we know why he's so
01:34:27
long-winded He gets paid by the word Absolutely Now you know that's actually my
Now we know why he never wants to cut
01:34:33
anything This goes on and on and on On and on and on
Absolutely That's why we're the number one podcast in the
01:34:39
world Uh you guys can send me my flowers You know the address of the ranch Okay So there was another one with Meta And
01:34:45
uh although the judge ultimately sided with Meta he had a mixed ruling Basically said that copyright protected
01:34:51
works without permission is generally illegal But the plaint plaintiffs in that case failed to present any
01:34:57
compelling arguments that there were actual market harm That's a key one You have to have uh some harm in these cases
01:35:04
in order for it to play Ton of other cases still in play The big one is the New York Times versus OpenAI and Getty
01:35:11
Images versus Stable uh Diffusion We'll follow those as they make their way through the courts But here you are Sax
01:35:18
you are the ZAR of AI So I I don't know if we're getting an official position here or just your personal thoughts on
01:35:25
this but what's the um interpretation of these two early cases by bizarre data
01:35:32
well I'll tell you my my point of view I don't know that I can speak for everybody but I'll give you my point of
01:35:37
view which actually is the same point of view I gave on this podcast a year or two ago because we had this debate over
01:35:42
fair use and me and Freeberg were on one side and you were on another side
Yes This judge in the anthropic case I mean
01:35:48
the the the reasoning that he gave was almost identical to what Freeberg and I were arguing Yeah a year ago
And the
01:35:56
distinction he made is between input and output If an AI model outputs
01:36:02
some text that is basically a ripoff of of someone else's uh copyright then of
01:36:07
course it's it's guilty of copyright violation But in the inputs or pre-training is something different And
01:36:14
what AI models do in pre-training is they take millions of text millions of documents and they understand the
01:36:21
positional relationship of the words and they translate that into um into math
01:36:27
into a vector space called positional encoding That is a transformation of the underlying work And in the same way that
01:36:33
a human can read a a body of works and then come up with their own point of view that is basically what AI models
01:36:40
are doing So if AI models violate someone's copyright by outputting something that's identical then
01:36:45
obviously that's a violation But if all they're doing is transforming the work they're doing positional encoding and
01:36:51
then coming up with their own unique work product This judge said that that is not a violation of copyright I completely agree with that One other
01:36:59
point one other distinction this judge made that I think is very important is the difference between pirating and
01:37:05
copyright What the judge said is "Look you have to buy the book if you're going to basically do pre-training on it You
01:37:10
can't rip it off That would be piracy but that's different than copyright." And so I agree with that too Now just
01:37:18
one final point on this
How would you uh Sax on that point how would you propose
01:37:23
a large language model take a million books and put it in would they buy the
01:37:28
physical books scan them in if you
buy the book so what Anthropic did is they created this large repository of books
01:37:35
and unfortunately some of them weren't paid for they were pirated material and so anthropic
allegedly by the way
01:37:42
allegedly is in some hot water and then I think there is some case that's going to move forward about that but the judge
01:37:48
distinguished again between piracy and copyright So the point is what anthropic should have done apparently is buy each
01:37:55
copy of the book that they put in their repository If they had done that
scan them in
scan them in they wouldn't have
01:38:00
had this piracy uh uh claim against them But again that is separate from copyright Just one final point on this
01:38:07
is I think it's very important that we end up with a sensible fair use definition like the one that judges come
01:38:14
up with in the synthropic case because otherwise we will lose the AI race to China The fact of the matter is China's
01:38:20
not going to care about American copyright policy they are going to train on every scrap of data that's available
01:38:26
to them on the internet Uh apparently they use a pirated book archive called libgen And so you know they're not going
01:38:34
to abide by copyright laws at all And if we don't allow our AI models to again
01:38:40
have a sensible fair use definition that allows them to train but not violate an
01:38:46
output then we will lose to to Chinese AI models because they'll have more data And the fact is that the more data that
01:38:52
you have the better your AI model So I do think it's very important for the US to consolidate around a fair use
01:38:58
definition that makes sense I'm not saying that this anthropic case will be the final word I think there will be other cases that come up with other
01:39:05
definitions There may be other judges that disagree Ultimately I think this is going to the Supreme Court But where we
01:39:10
need to end up is with some sort of fair use definition that makes sense Otherwise we will lose AI race to China
01:39:17
Your view Jal yeah obviously as a content creator uh I'll take the other side of this There
01:39:23
is a nuance between training and there is a nuance between the output Uh I like to look at this as an opportunity
01:39:29
YouTube really did a great job with their content ID system of navigating this Google has the most experience here
01:39:36
uh with Google images and Google News The one box where you get a little snippet uh up top and the output is
01:39:42
where this is really going to favor the content holders because these will be competitive products in the marketplace
01:39:48
The need to buy a New York Times subscription is no longer necessary You
01:39:54
can go onto a language model and ask them to give you wire cutter as one example I like to cite What are their
01:40:00
best picks for these uh you know air conditioners or or microphones for podcasting and they will give it to you
01:40:06
And when they started doing that that was my main reason to subscribe to the New York Times And I no longer subscribe to it I subscribe to Open Eye because I
01:40:12
can get the same information there These cases will be very easy to win Uh and so I'm going to explain two things is one
01:40:18
how you can win this case as a content company and then two I'm going to give
01:40:23
uh how the large language models can importantly win the AI race and actually
01:40:29
not destroy the business on which they are built on These language models have nothing without the content creators and
01:40:35
the authors of these books of which I am one They need us and so they should want to pay us They should want us to be
01:40:43
compensated because that will keep us more competitive than China which will just steal it one time So here's how you
01:40:49
win if you're a publisher Uh all you have to do is Disney which is suing um
01:40:55
MidJourney right now for obvious copyright violations on the output in my interpretation All you have to do is do
01:41:02
a a Marvel Me make yourself into a Marvel character Disney me or choose
01:41:07
your own adventure Star Wars and allow consumers to pay for that product And any author right now that pops up a
01:41:13
website that says subscribe to uh the angel book and ask questions of it $10
01:41:19
for life a dollar per year whatever it is they will be able to prove damages very easily and they will be able to
01:41:25
prove that these language models are competitive When they do that then all of the output will need to uh be
01:41:33
scrubbed or contained in some way You can see this today if you ask Chat GPT
01:41:39
which is you know the main target since they're making $10 billion a year off of in many ways uh content creators work
01:41:47
that's why they're the big target because they have the most money uh they will not let you make certain images copyrighted images specifically the
01:41:52
Disney ones go ahead and try go try to make a Darth Vader image and they will stop you so they know they're doing it wrong and they've already put the
01:41:58
controls in place you need to show that this is your opportunity as a content creator and now to my second point Zach
01:42:06
which is the very easy So that's how you can prove your case and win hands down versus all language models Put a
01:42:12
competitive product in the market you will win Then the second piece that'll make this tenable is you know Chetchip
01:42:20
is making $10 billion a year according to reports They should give 30% of their revenue a small amount the minority of
01:42:26
their revenue to the top 10,000 newspapers publications podcasts books
01:42:31
etc And they should do that programmatically And then they should hope that those companies double their
01:42:37
revenue and increase their investment And then Chat GPT and the New York Times should do a deal and I predict they will
01:42:43
do this or with another language model that's smart enough to do it where when you go to Chat GPT and you do a search
01:42:49
from the New York Times you say "What does the New York Times say about Iran or what do they say about you know uh the wire cutters say about cameras?" It
01:42:56
should say authenticate with your New York Times subscription to have access to this And on the New York Times website they should say authenticate
01:43:02
with chat GPT This would allow them to have a competitive advantage versus
01:43:08
Anthropic and you know Apples and whoevers and this will become a massive
01:43:13
competitive advantage for the language models just like cable channels might or Hulu might feature Disney Plus or you
01:43:20
know FX or or whatever stations or content it is Whoever does this first on
01:43:25
the other side will make a tremendous amount of money because they will have access to all that data and the output
01:43:31
So you can make your kids a t-shirt or a birthday invitation you know using the
01:43:37
Star Wars characters That's the easy way for us to win as Americans by respecting
01:43:43
content creators and paying the money so they can reinvest The amount of money we're talking about here is dimminimous
01:43:49
for the tech industry These companies are going to be worth
30% of revenue and the company's losing tons of money
Yeah
01:43:55
that's their problem That's not there's no legal basis for that such a specific
01:44:00
proposal There's only basis for well I mean there is the music industry if you want to play music in your restaurant
01:44:06
you have to pay If you want to cover somebody's song you got to pay If you want to perform it you have to pay So there is tons of precedent for it If you
01:44:13
want to play a Disney film at your kid's birthday party yeah you can get away with it But if you do it in people
01:44:19
you're going to guarantee that Chinese models like Deep Seek are better than American models cuz they're not going to go through any of that So that's your
01:44:25
reason of why people because they're just going to train on No not steal I don't think it's stealing
the output I'm
01:44:30
talking about specifically the output stealing or not
You can't cop No no no You can't copy the output I fully agree there
And that is what the Disney case
01:44:37
is about No I'm talking about free training
I'm talking about the latter So let's talk about the latter here I'm
01:44:42
talking specifically on the output
No one disagrees on output
Okay So that's the licensing deal I'm talking about
01:44:47
Don't you think it would be worth it to give Disney $und00 million a year to have access to all that
you and I have different definitions of output Okay
I
01:44:56
think it's reasonable to pay Disney for pre-training and I think that they do
01:45:01
I told you though this like we did a licensing deal with open AAI we meaning you know beast they paid us and they're
01:45:08
using it for pre-training it's quite reasonable is it the right price we have no idea but we did it so that we could
01:45:14
be a part of the conversation and shape how these deals
get done for content creators but Sax is right like if you
01:45:20
think about like what is the ultimate output the output if you look at how a
01:45:26
transformer behaves it's it's almost it's impossible simple to say that it's copying the input just not how it works
01:45:33
And so I I don't
get turned into math what gets recorded is vector math on the
01:45:40
relationship between the words This is all a very and then somehow when
01:45:45
you feed that into a neural net with billions and billions of documents it somehow has an understanding and
01:45:50
produces new content and that new content is not a copyright violation So I just think that like copyright's the
01:45:56
wrong way to look at this This is a new technology is transformational And then finally we have the national security
01:46:01
concern
All right so this is a topic we will monitor Thanks again for listening to the number one podcast in the world
01:46:08
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01:46:13
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I
01:46:31
love you I got to go Bye We'll let your winners ride
01:46:37
Rainman David and we open sourced it to the fans and
01:46:44
they've just gone crazy with it
Love you Queen of
01:46:49
yours
01:46:54
Besties are gone That is my dog taking your driveways
01:47:02
Oh man my appetiter will meet
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just like
01:47:09
this like sexual tension and they just need to release somehow
01:47:16
Your feet We need to get merch
01:47:28
I'm going all in
