00:00:00
How many PRs you think are going to get pushed to the core structural internet in 100 days? What's the overunder
00:00:05
number? Cuz I'll give you a number. >> You're going to say zero. My my answer
00:00:08
to that is >> I'll say like 10,000. But it's going to be immediately
00:00:11
>> if it prevents your browser history from being released to everybody in the
00:00:15
world, Chamath, that may be something that you're willing to, you know, let 100 days pass on.
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>> I think you got Chimat's attention when you said browser history. >> What about the dickpicks?
00:00:25
>> Chamat is he's going to release them himself. We'll let your winners ride.
00:00:38
>> We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love
00:00:41
you. >> All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world.
00:00:48
David Freeberg is out this week. But in his place, the one, the only, our fifth bestie, Brad Gersonner. I
00:00:56
mean, why don't you ever give me puts a little namaste in your payday anymore?
00:01:00
You used to be >> I'm going to bring back the greatest moderator, but now it's just kind of You
00:01:06
know what? These guys beat me up. They beat me up and they just beat the the joy out of me doing this program.
00:01:13
>> It's because you're a Roana apologist now. >> No, I We'll get into it. Okay. Save it
00:01:18
for the [ __ ] Roana apologist. just because I said like, "Hey, they've
00:01:23
stopped [ __ ] maxing and they've started doing like some logical things."
00:01:28
Uh, yeah. Okay, here we go. >> It's great to be here. Great to be here.
00:01:31
>> Good to have you. Good to have you here. And of course, uh, we have David Saxs is
00:01:37
back. Everybody wants to hear from David Sax. We missed you last week, bestie. >> We didn't beat the joy out of you. We
00:01:42
just try to beat some of the hot air. Turn >> any any fluff that you can put on the
00:01:47
show that just involves you talking and saying nothing is >> that's the stuff we got.
00:01:53
>> Turn up. Yeah. Turn up. Okay. Yeah, we'll cut it right out. Um we'll cut it
00:01:58
out and we'll just put a promo in for the syndicate.com. Thank you. Also with
00:02:01
us, Jamalet is here. >> How's your [ __ ] maxing going since last week? Did you have a a a [ __ ]
00:02:08
maxing full weekend? Did you have a good full weekend of just smoking cigars in the back deck and not ruminating about
00:02:14
all the chaos you've caused in the last 20 years? >> I think I've done generally more good
00:02:20
>> than than not. >> Oh, you have. But there's been some chaotic moments. Don't think about it.
00:02:26
>> You can't, bro. You can't have ups without downs, man. It's like, what are
00:02:30
you there to do? Just like plate everybody and be a loser? Are you there to be a winner? Yes, you're in the
00:02:35
arena, but have you stopped going to therapy after realizing ruminating? >> What's up with this uh sudden interest
00:02:42
in [ __ ] maxing? Are you like the clavvicular for [ __ ] maxing? >> No, the world finally caught up with me.
00:02:49
That's it. What do you I mean, I've been [ __ ] maxing this whole time. THEY JUST
00:02:52
DIDN'T HAVE A name for it, guys. >> Wow. Okay. Eli's videos are really good.
00:02:56
I watched two more this week. What take us through what's so appealing about not ruminating, smoking a cigar,
00:03:03
and just living your life? >> Because what he says actually works at every level of society and every sort of
00:03:10
thing that you may want to achieve. Even if you're trying to like climb the rungs,
00:03:17
you very quickly learn that the more you want something, the less you're going to
00:03:20
get it. And I think that's like his real message is let go, live life, and just
00:03:27
try stuff or don't try stuff. And I think that that detachment is really healthy for people. I like it. I like it
00:03:34
a lot. >> Who's the guy who says this? I actually didn't know. >> Elisha Long. Well, Eli, I think, is how
00:03:40
he goes by. >> But he's fantastic. He Mark YouTube channel. >> Mark Andre found him
00:03:46
>> and he's like, "This is this guy is the new guy. >> Modernday philosopher. He gives you a
00:03:51
road map for how to live your life, right? A new age sage. >> What's the name of the guy? The
00:03:55
character's name from Dune. >> I was into girls books. I was dating girls.
00:04:01
>> He's the Lison Algib of the modern internet. >> This is why we need Freeberg here is to
00:04:06
explain these deep holes. All right, listen. We got a lot to get to. Don't The basic point is build something and
00:04:12
don't ruminate. Okay, ruminating is just not worth it. Just everybody go for it.
00:04:16
>> No, just do stuff. Stop blathering in your own head. Just do stuff. Absolutely. All right. Listen, speaking
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of doing so, Anthropic is withholding its newest model, Mythos. I'm using the
00:04:26
Greek uh pronunciation, its newest model, Mythos, uh saying it is far too dangerous for any of us to have access
00:04:33
to it. According to the company, the model autonomously found thousands of vulnerabilities, including bugs in every
00:04:39
major operating system and web browser. This uh little study they did included 20 year old exploits that had been
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missed by security audits for decades. Uh some examples, they found a 27y old vulnerability in OpenBSD used in
00:04:54
firewalls and critical infrastructure. They found a 16-year-old bug in FFmpeg that was missed by automated tools after
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5 million scans. The Linux kernel, all kinds of uh bugs they found. They released a hype video hyping up why they
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were not going to share this model. Here's Dario. Come on the program anytime, brother.
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>> But as a side effect of being good at code, it's also good at cyber.
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>> The model that we're experimenting with is by and large as good as a
00:05:25
professional human at identifying bugs. It's good for us because we can find
00:05:30
more vulnerabilities sooner and we can fix them. >> It has the ability to chain together
00:05:35
vulnerabilities. So what this means is you find two vulnerabilities, either of which doesn't really get you very much
00:05:40
independently, but this model is able to create exploits out of three, four, sometimes five vulnerabilities that in
00:05:47
sequence give you some kind of very sophisticated end outcome. >> All right, Brad, uh, by the way, that
00:05:51
set they're using there, that's the same room those guys play Dungeons and
00:05:54
Dragons in every Sunday. Brad, you're Brad, you're an investor in this company. Is this virtue signaling or is
00:06:03
it reality? Is this a good move by them to not release this model and be thoughtful, give it to a handful of
00:06:09
people and just find all the bugs it can before releasing it to the public? And we've got a lot more issues to discuss.
00:06:16
>> I I actually think they deserve a ton of credit here and let me walk you through
00:06:20
why, right? They the company could have just released Mythos, broken a lot of core things on the internet. Often times
00:06:26
in Silicon Valley, we say move fast and break things. In this case, it means just releasing the model to move further
00:06:31
ahead of your competition. But here the company realized it would wreak havoc. They ran their own vulnerability
00:06:37
testing. They saw that it would allow offensive hacking and people to expose browsers and browser history, expose
00:06:43
credit cards, you know, on the internet. So, you know what I like about this is they didn't need government to hold
00:06:50
their hand on this. We have plenty of government regulations. They know it's
00:06:54
in the best long-term interest of the company and the industry, you know. So, they set up Project Glass Wing. It's an
00:07:00
AIdriven, you know, kind of cyber coalition. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, JP Morgan, 40 of the most
00:07:07
important companies. And their goal is very simple. Let's spend a 100 days use
00:07:11
advanced AI to find and to fix and to harden these software vulnerabilities before hackers exploit them. Now, what I
00:07:20
think this represents, Jason, is a threshold that we're crossing. Mythos and Spud, which is going to be out from
00:07:27
OpenAI any day now, which is the first Blackwell trained model at OpenAI. They represent the beginning of what I would
00:07:35
call AGI models. These are models with massive step function improvements and intelligence. Um, and they're just too
00:07:43
smart to be released immediately, you know. And by the way, there was nothing that said that every time you
00:07:49
you finish a model, you got to immediately release it GA. So they set up this idea of sandboxing, building
00:07:55
defensive alliances, you know, in order to move away from that regime. I I think it shows, and
00:08:01
Saxon and I have talked about this a lot, so I'm interested to hear what he thinks. It shows you can trust the
00:08:07
industry and market forces in coordination with the government. They were talking to the government about
00:08:12
this. But they're not relying on some top- down regulation in order to do this. They laid out a blueprint that
00:08:19
seems to me very pragmatic that now that we're at this threshold, we're going to
00:08:24
sandbox these things. I think that open AAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same
00:08:30
thing. It's an aggressive way to keep the RA, you know, the pressure on and and win the race at AI while making the
00:08:37
tradeoffs to protect safety. So, you know, I think you're always going to have to make these trade-offs. I think
00:08:42
in this case, it was a great move by Dario and team and I think they deserve a lot of credit. Sachs, when you look at
00:08:48
this, we had Emil Michael on the program a couple weeks ago. It might have been four or five weeks ago, and we had a
00:08:53
very thoughtful discussion about, hey, if the government is going to have these tools, you know, an anthropic wants to
00:08:59
withhold them and, you know, what is the proper relationship there, you have to think that the government, and I know
00:09:06
you don't speak for all parts of the government. If you were just going to run through the game theory, they must
00:09:11
have gone to the government and said, "Listen, this thing is so powerful, it
00:09:14
can put together two or three hacks, create a novel attack vector, and this is incredibly dangerous. What if China
00:09:21
has it? And if this thing is as powerful as Daario says it is, then this is an offensive weapon as well for us to take
00:09:28
out, let's just pick, you know, uh, a pressing issue, the North Korea's ballistic missile program. This is
00:09:36
equivalent the way it's being described as the Manhattan project perhaps. So
00:09:41
what are the chances two-part question for you Sax that China already has this and is using it and do you think Daario
00:09:48
is doing the right thing by regulating themselves? >> I think Anthropic has proven that it's
00:09:54
very good at two things. One is product releases. The second is scaring people. And we've seen a pattern in their
00:10:02
previous releases of at the same time they roll out a new model or new model card, something like that. They also
00:10:09
roll out some study showing really the worst possible implication of where the technology could lead. We saw this last
00:10:17
year about a year ago. They rolled out this blackmail study where supposedly the new model could blackmail users.
00:10:25
There's been a whole bunch of these things. Actually, I went back to Grock and I just asked, "Hey, give me examples
00:10:30
where Antropic has basically used scare tactics and it's it's a pattern." Okay,
00:10:35
it's a pattern. >> Okay, >> these guys, I'm not saying it's not
00:10:40
sincere, but they have a proven pattern of using fear as a way to market their new products. And if you think back to,
00:10:48
again, my favorite example is this blackmail study where they prompted the model over 200 times to get the result
00:10:55
they wanted. And that result was was clearly reverse engineered and it got them the headlines they wanted. And I
00:11:02
would say the proof that it's reverse engineered is we're now a year later.
00:11:06
There's a bunch of open- source models out there that have the same level of
00:11:10
capability that that anthropic model had. And have you seen any examples of blackmail in the wild? I don't think so.
00:11:18
So in other words, if that study were true in the sense of being a likely outcome of that model, I think you would
00:11:25
see examples in the wild of that behavior. And we haven't seen any of that in the past year. Now, let's talk
00:11:31
about this specific example with cyber hacking. >> I actually think that this one is more
00:11:37
on the legitimate side. I mean, look, the reason why I bring this up is anytime Anthropic is scaring people, you
00:11:42
have to ask, is this a tactic? Is this part of their Chicken Little routine? or is it real? You know, are they crying
00:11:49
wolf or not? I actually would give them credit in this case and say this is more
00:11:53
on the the real side. It just makes sense, right? So that as the coding models become more and more capable,
00:11:59
they're more capable of finding bugs. That means they're more capable of
00:12:02
finding vulnerabilities. And like one of their engineers said, that means they're
00:12:05
more capable of stringing together multiple vulnerabilities and creating an exploit. And so I do think that over say
00:12:11
the next 6 months we're going to have this call it one-time period of catching
00:12:16
up where AIdriven cyber is going to be able to detect a whole range of of bugs that maybe have been dormant over the
00:12:24
past 20 years across a wide range of systems. And so I do think that there is real risk here. And I do think therefore
00:12:33
that having this pre-release period makes a lot of sense where they're giving the capability to all these
00:12:39
software companies that have existing code bases to use the tool to detect the vulnerabilities for themselves so they
00:12:45
can patch them before these capabilities are widely available. And by the way, it
00:12:49
won't just be anthropic that makes these capabilities available. We know that
00:12:54
like let's say the Chinese open source models like Kimmy K2, it's about 6
00:12:58
months behind. So we have a window here of maybe 6 months where we're still in
00:13:03
this pre-release period where I think companies that have large code bases can get advanced access to this model and uh
00:13:12
I guess open AI is going to release a similar thing in the next few weeks. I do think that every company or IT
00:13:18
department or CISO that is managing code bases should take this seriously and use
00:13:26
the next few months to detect any again like dormant bugs or vulnerabilities and
00:13:32
and roll out patches. If everybody does their job and reacts the right way, then
00:13:36
I do not think it will be the doomsday scenario that Anthropic is sort of portraying. But it's one of these things
00:13:43
where the fear might end up being a good thing in order to drive people to in order to drive the correct behavior. So
00:13:51
>> sure, >> I ultimately think this is going to work out fine, but you do need everyone to
00:13:55
kind of pay attention, use the capabilities, >> fix the bugs, then we're going to get
00:13:59
into a big arms race between AI being used for cyber offense and AI being used for cyber defense, but it'll be a more
00:14:06
normal sort of of period. Chimath, we have uh Daario and uh you know a number of the participants here are taking this
00:14:14
super seriously. They're making a big statement. Zach's very nuanced uh I
00:14:19
think take there. What's your take on how do these companies have it both ways? Hey, this is shouldn't be
00:14:26
regulated. This should be regulated. If this is in fact a cataclysmic, oh my god, they're going to hack everything.
00:14:33
What if the Chinese have this right now? That would speak to more government either coordination, regulation, or some
00:14:39
kind of relationship between the CIA, the FBI for domestic stuff, and these companies because there it is a non-zero
00:14:48
chance that the Chinese have an equal capability here. We're assuming they're
00:14:52
behind, but who knows what they're doing behind closed doors. So, what's your
00:14:55
take on this? Is it uh The Boy Who Cried Wolf, or is this the real deal? Now, >> I think it's mostly theater.
00:15:03
>> Okay. In February of 2019, when Daario was still at OpenAI, they did the same thing with GPT2.
00:15:14
That was a 1.5 billion parameter model, which sounds like a total fart in the wind in 2026. But at that time, this 1.5
00:15:24
billion parameter model was supposed to be the end of days. And it was supposed to unleash this torrent of spam and
00:15:30
misinformation. And that was the big bugaboo at the time. And so what happened? They went through this
00:15:35
methodical roll out over six or nine months. They started releasing the smaller parameter models and then they
00:15:41
scaled up to the big 1.5 billion parameter model. And at the end of it, it was a huge nothing burger.
00:15:47
If you actually think that Mythos is capable of doing what it says it can do, two things are true. One is a very
00:15:55
sophisticated hacker can probably do those things right now with Opus. And two, if these exploits
00:16:04
are this easy to find, whether you use Opus or whether you use Mythos, the reality is you'd have to
00:16:10
shut down the internet for about 5 years to patch them all. So when you see like
00:16:15
a large multi- trillion dollar gang, it's a bit of theater. Why? What do you
00:16:22
think they can actually accomplish in 2 months? Do you actually think that if there's these vulnerabilities, it's all
00:16:28
going to get fixed? Let's give them six months. Let's give them nine months. But
00:16:33
the reality is that capitalism moves forward, the funding needs moves forward, and the need for these guys to
00:16:40
build adoption moves forward. And that's going to supersede what this is. So I do think that Sax is
00:16:47
right that they have figured out a very clever go-to market muscle here and a go
00:16:54
to market motion that activates hyper attention and hyper usage and so I give them tremendous credit and I'll
00:17:02
maintain what I've maintained before. Anthropic is shooting the lights out right now. This is like Steph Curry
00:17:08
going bananas from every everywhere on the court. These guys are hunking threes.
00:17:13
>> It's all in that. Okay. So huge kudos to Anthropic, but we've seen it before. We saw it when
00:17:21
these folks were the principal architects at OpenAI who are now seeing the same playbook here. I think we'll
00:17:27
look back and I think what we'll say are these two things. One is if we're really
00:17:31
going to patch all these security holes, we need to shut down the internet for some number of years, honestly,
00:17:37
literally years. And the second is an advanced hacker can probably do this today with Opus if they really wanted
00:17:44
to. >> Okay. Hey Brad, I gota I'll get you in here for the for the last word. I I'm
00:17:49
going to go with Yeah, maybe they did uh Crywolf before, but based on what I see
00:17:55
with these models advancing and using them and I'm using a lot of the open source ones right now from China. I
00:18:00
think that this is like code red kind of moment. This is Defcon. like we should be taking this deadly seriously and I
00:18:07
think these companies got to coordinate with the CIA and this is uh equally a defensive as offensive opportunity. Do
00:18:14
you think this >> you're asking for the nationalization of AI now? >> No, I actually I I I don't think it
00:18:20
should be nationalized. Um although I did see people sort of insinuating that. I think these companies need to build a
00:18:26
group Brad that work and coordinate with the CIA. I assume that they're already
00:18:30
doing this. I'm assuming you Emil Michael and uh you know Trump and everybody have these people in a room
00:18:36
and that they've given the defcon and said hey how can our government use this
00:18:41
to stop bad actors and this is already being coordinated with the CIA and the FBI. I am 100% certain of that that
00:18:48
Dario went to them and said look what we found. This is the real deal. I'll give
00:18:52
you the last word on this Brad since you're an investor in both companies and
00:18:55
you know them quite well. the frontier model forum which was which was put together in 23 um is cooperating on
00:19:01
anti- and adversarial distillation stuff as we speak right they don't want to
00:19:06
make it easy on you know so Google and and open AAI and and anthropic they're
00:19:11
coordinating on this stuff you know there are times where I've pushed back on anthropic because I thought it was
00:19:16
you know perhaps regulatory capture or something else this is very different in my mind right he could have easily Dario
00:19:22
could have easily come out and said oh my god we passed a threshold we need to have a government moratorum. Remember,
00:19:28
even our friend Elon called for a six-month moratorium in 2023 because of civilization risk. This guy didn't do
00:19:34
that. Instead, he said, "Okay, what what should we do? I'm going to get 40 of the
00:19:38
leading companies together. We're going to spend a 100 days sandboxing, hardening the systems, and then we're
00:19:43
we're we're going to keep pushing forward." >> What do you honestly think is going to
00:19:46
get accomplished in a 100 days? How many PRs you think are going to get pushed to
00:19:50
the core structural internet in 100 days? What's the overunder number? Cuz I'll give you a number. You're gonna say
00:19:55
zero. My my answer to that is >> I'll say like 10,000, but it's going to
00:19:59
be immediate. >> But if it prevents your browser history from being released to everybody in the
00:20:03
world, Chimat, that may be something that you're willing to, you know, let a
00:20:07
100 days pass on. >> I think you got Chimat's attention when you said browser history.
00:20:10
>> What about the dickpicks? >> As Chimat is, he's going to release them
00:20:16
himself right now. CHIMAT'S LIKE, "HEY, CHINESE HACKERS, HERE ARE MY DICKPICKS.
00:20:20
Please put them out." >> Oh my god. we have to be out there complimenting when they're doing the
00:20:25
right things or relying on the market rather than running to the nanny state and saying do more of this. So this to
00:20:30
me was just an example of of a of a good balance. I'm sure we're going to have
00:20:34
plenty of debates about this in the future. But you know this is one I would like to see more of.
00:20:38
>> This is why to use your word Jake I tried to have a more nuanced take is
00:20:42
because we have no choice but to take this seriously. Whether it's total theater, whether it's fear-mongering,
00:20:49
and they do have a pattern around this, we can't take the risk, right? And it
00:20:53
does logically make sense that as these models become more and more capable at coding, they're going to get better at
00:20:59
cyber. And there's going to be that one time period where you're moving from
00:21:04
preAI to post AAI, and you need a patch for that. So, my guess is we're going to
00:21:08
see a lot of patches over the next few months. I think that that will resolve the problem.
00:21:14
I think this is a case where I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. I
00:21:18
I think that, you know, I've criticized him in the past. I think that blackmail
00:21:22
study was embarrassing to the level of being a hoax, but I think in this case, I'm going to give him credit and say
00:21:29
that I think that it's legit. >> So, it's not the anthropic hoax. This
00:21:33
could be legit. I, you know, looking at >> we have no choice but to treat it that
00:21:37
way. >> Of course. Yeah. I mean, even if two things could be true at the same time,
00:21:42
Saxs, they could have used this tactic before. It could be performative, like the video with the dramatic music in the
00:21:48
background. It does have a little bit of drama to it, and the way they presented
00:21:53
it is very dramatic, but it does make logical sense that the one company that made the bet on code bigger than anybody
00:22:02
else would be the one who would discover this quickest. And you know in a 100 days that's a pretty good um that's a
00:22:08
pretty big advantage versus the hackers. But let me think one more point there Jimat
00:22:12
>> the most important thing that people haven't talked about here is the amount
00:22:17
of code being pushed right now because of these tools is 10x 100x in most organizations. So we need to have this
00:22:24
type of security embedded in these new coding tools to do it in real time. That's the opportunity. There should be
00:22:31
real time correcting of this. If this was real, they picked the wrong companies. Meaning, there are energy
00:22:38
companies, folks that control nuclear reactors. There are airplane companies that are flying hundreds of thousands of
00:22:45
people in essentially manufactured missiles of like streaming gas going at 500 miles an hour. None of those
00:22:54
companies were the ones that were included in this. And so I think if you really thought that this was end of
00:23:00
days, at a minimum we can agree maybe we should have expanded the circle a touch.
00:23:07
Well, maybe those are customers of the ones they're including here. Anyway, uh
00:23:11
this is a really important story. We'll obviously track it in the coming weeks
00:23:14
to see what turns out to be reality. And uh Daario, do come on the program at some point. Hey uh Brad, will you get
00:23:20
Dario to come on the program? I've invited him like three times. I got his phone number. He's ghosted me. I don't
00:23:24
know why. >> Wait, he he's ignored you? I get >> I literally got an introduction from the
00:23:29
number like one of the number one venture capitalists in the world. He's on the cap table very early. He just
00:23:33
won't respond. I don't know why. >> I would tell you Daario's podcast with
00:23:38
Dwarkish who I think is an excellent podcaster. I've listened to that three or four times taken notes every time. It
00:23:44
is a really exceptional piece really exceptional piece of work by by by them. >> All right, let's keep moving. We got a
00:23:50
lot on the job. >> You may once again be tarred with your affiliation with us.
00:23:54
>> Poor you. I mean, I don't care. Literally, I I've got friends on both
00:23:58
sides of the aisle. I have friends >> of course you do. >> Even JCAL.
00:24:02
>> Even JCAL has friends everywhere. >> Let me ask Brad a question here just
00:24:06
while we're on the topic of anthropic. There was a really interesting story or
00:24:10
tweet I guess you could say by the founder of OpenClaw that >> Peter. >> Peter. Yeah. What's his name? Peter
00:24:16
Steinber. >> Steinberger. Steinberger. >> Steinberger. Yeah. renowned coder created openclaw which is
00:24:22
kind of the thing that launched this whole agent era now you I guess you could say any event he said that
00:24:28
anthropic was cutting off his access to was it was to claw is that the next topic
00:24:34
>> this is on the docket it's a little bit nuanced everybody using openclaw would take
00:24:39
their $200 a month subscription to anthropic which was essentially like a people were using more tokens and it's
00:24:45
an average the people from openclaw it is very verbose and those people are 100x the usage of the average
00:24:53
subscriber. So he said you can't use your 200, you have to use the API. You move from the $200 plan to the API, add
00:25:00
a zero to your token use. So or more. And so they essentially anchored Open Claw and then 10 days later or less
00:25:11
they released or announced their new agent technology which is according to them a safer better version of OpenClaw.
00:25:17
So, hey, all fair in love and war and they have basically shot a huge cannon across the bow of openclaw.
00:25:25
>> Wait, can you just explain that exactly? So, so I think you're right that they
00:25:29
systematically copied feature by feature >> of open claw, incorporated that into
00:25:34
clawed and then the coupross was basically cutting off open >> oxygen. Can you just explain exactly
00:25:40
what they did? Okay, very simply, when you buy a subscription to these services, they have blended your usage
00:25:48
across many users. So there's, you know, nine out of 10 users use less than the
00:25:52
tokens they're paying for and the top 10% use much more. When OpenClaw became
00:25:58
a phenomenon, the number one open source project in history on GitHub with all of
00:26:02
this usage, people went crazy. And you heard me talking about how crazy I went for it. those people with the $200
00:26:08
subscriptions were using $2,000 $20,000 worth of tokens. So they said you can no
00:26:14
longer use your subscription to, you know, either your professional or enterprise subscription at $200
00:26:20
>> and plug that into your open claw. You now have to go to the API and pay per
00:26:24
usage. So no more like >> unlimited. If you use Anthropic's own agent harness, are you part of the
00:26:31
bundled flat rate? You can assume that that's what they'll do, which if you
00:26:35
were thinking on an antirust level might be token dumping or price dumping. I'm
00:26:40
not saying like I'm ratting them. >> No, it's like bundling, isn't it?
00:26:43
>> Well, price dumping or bundling. When you price something under the market
00:26:47
price in antitrust, that would be price dumping, right? And if you were to bundle, it would be like the bundling
00:26:53
issue. >> Critically important. You can use openclaw via claw API and every company
00:26:58
has a right to set the price for its products. It's just saying that you were
00:27:02
for under their current regime, they were selling dollars for 10 cents via OpenClaw because these were such power
00:27:08
users and now they're just saying we have to price this rationally, but we're
00:27:11
happy to have you guys use the API. So, >> okay. Okay. But Brad, when you use the
00:27:16
OpenClaw competitor that Anthropic now offers, >> correct? >> Are they subsidizing that? Are you
00:27:22
paying? >> We don't know yet because it's in closed beta. So in other words, what I'm saying
00:27:25
is if they charge for API usage, right, their own first party agent harness or system, then that would be apples to
00:27:33
apples. But if >> if they end up charging the bundled flat rate, let's say, for their stuff, but
00:27:41
then charge the metered rate for third party stuff, you could make a bundling argument.
00:27:46
>> Sure. Sure. And you could say it's anti-competitive assuming that Anthropic
00:27:50
has dominant market share in coding, which I think most people would say they do at this point.
00:27:54
>> And assuming that it's the same product, I mean, the reason most enterprises will
00:27:58
probably use the Anthropic uh version of this agentic product is because it meets
00:28:05
all of your security parameters, right? So, Altimter runs, you know, a lot of stuff on Enthropic. They're already
00:28:12
integrated within our our data warehouse, our data lake, things of that nature. So just letting openclaw loose
00:28:18
on the uh altimeter you know data set would not be wise and so it's a different fundamental product.
00:28:24
>> No I get that and I think that anthropic has a huge advantage let's say cloning
00:28:28
open claw and just building it into claude. I'm not denying that to me that would be the reason why they don't need
00:28:34
to do price discrimination is because there's already a very good reason >> to use the let's call it the bundled
00:28:40
offering on a featured basis. But the question I'm specifically asking is whether they're giving themselves a
00:28:46
price advantage because >> I think Brad is giving the the most generous interpretation. You're taking a
00:28:52
more cynical one. I'm with you, Saxs. I'm 100% on the cynical side. Open Claw
00:28:56
is so powerful. It's got so much momentum that not only is anthropic trying to ankle it. I believe when Sam
00:29:04
Waltman bought it, it was uh and he didn't buy OpenClaw itself, he hired Aqua hired Peter. I believe it was to
00:29:10
subvert the open- source project to get Peter's next set of genius ideas inside
00:29:15
of OpenAI as opposed to letting them go there. People are going to say I'm a
00:29:19
conspiracy theorist, but this is the number one focus and let me just give you a list of who is trying to kill
00:29:25
OpenClaw/compete with them. Obviously, you have Anthropic, but also Perplexity Computer launched. It's awesome. I've
00:29:33
been using it. Anthropic has this clawed managed agents. They dropped that on Wednesday, April 8th. uh yesterday uh
00:29:40
today's Thursday when we tape you you guys listen on Fridays and then you have
00:29:44
Hermes agent that was released on February 25th that's also open source and very good so that's in the open
00:29:50
source camp Alibab is coming out with one that's going to be based on their Quinn model then you have Elon who said
00:29:57
he's got something called rock computer coming out of macro hard which is a play
00:30:01
on words for Microsoft in addition to that Amazon and Apple are preparing uh new releases of their uh [ __ ] maxing
00:30:09
assistants Alexa and Siri that will be less [ __ ] in this new version and then nothing out of uh SAT and Microsoft
00:30:16
yet. So the number one goal I believe in the large language model frontier model
00:30:23
space is to kill this open source product. >> No, I mean come on like why they're
00:30:29
building multi-functioning agents that can move from answering questions to actually doing something for you. like
00:30:35
you got to do that because that's what consumers and enterprises wants. It doesn't mean that it's about killing
00:30:40
OpenClaw. just this is an obvious thing right to do it >> but this is a giant movement to stop it
00:30:47
because this is the equivalent of having an open-source Android like player in the market and that could be incredibly
00:30:53
disruptive these I believe open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the
00:30:58
token usage and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source and I think they realize
00:31:04
that SLMs the the smaller language models that are verticalized now that will run on you know, desktops and
00:31:11
laptops and is even starting to run on the top ones. That is their biggest competitive threat and I hope it
00:31:16
happens. All due respect to your investments, Brad, I think this technology and the interface is uh you
00:31:22
know, he placed bets, but I I think it's imperative that the agent level, which
00:31:26
is essentially your entire life, you don't give that to Anthropic. You don't
00:31:31
give that to OpenAI. That's your entire business, your entire life. It is foolish for you, Brad, to give your
00:31:36
entire business and all the knowledge you have to anthropic through that. unless you're just doing it to boost
00:31:41
your um your your investment in those companies. But I would be very concerned if I was you with putting all of your
00:31:48
knowledge that you've earned over a lifetime into any of these large language models.
00:31:52
>> All right, Jake, let me ask you. Can I ask a question? Thank you for that
00:31:55
impassioned monologue. Um actually, I want to ask my TED talk. >> I Yes, thank you for that TED talk. Um I
00:32:02
have a yes no question for each of you. >> Do you believe that anthropic has
00:32:07
dominant market share in coding? right now? Yes. No, >> no. >> In in coding,
00:32:15
>> yes, >> they had the lead, but not that they had the lead, but not dominating.
00:32:18
>> I think it's a trillion dollar market, and these guys have less than 10% of it
00:32:21
today. So, it's hard to make a case that >> What percent of coding tokens do you
00:32:26
think that anthropic is providing the market right now? >> Greater than 50%.
00:32:30
>> Yeah, that's true. >> Okay, that's called dominant market
00:32:32
share. >> Uh, I don't know about that. >> More than 50% of the market.
00:32:36
>> You got to look at what you got to look at what the TAM is. with the Tan,
00:32:41
>> right? There are a lot of people who provide, you know, that that are in this
00:32:46
tiebreaker before we move on to the next. >> I'm not saying it's a permanent
00:32:48
condition, >> but if you're telling me that today >> Anthropic is delivering over half of the
00:32:55
coding tokens, that's clearly a dominant position in the market for coding. It's
00:32:59
an early market. It could change, but >> if I were representing them, David, I
00:33:03
would say nine months ago, everybody t called us uh, you know, out of the game. We were being destroyed by open AI in
00:33:10
three months. Now people are saying we have dominant market position. This is the fastest changing most competitive
00:33:16
market in the world. I think it would be very hardressed to walk into, you know,
00:33:20
some district court make the case that these guys have somehow already formed a monopoly against Amazon, Google,
00:33:26
Microsoft, Open AI, etc. >> Well, I'm not saying it's a it's already
00:33:30
a permanent monopoly, but I am just asking about market share. And I do think you guys all agree that
00:33:36
>> Shimov, go ahead. >> They probably have 50 to 60% market share because I think codeex is actually
00:33:42
quite broadly used as well. >> But that belies the more important point which is AI enabled coding I think is
00:33:51
still 5% of the broad market. So it's kind of a nothing burger. Yes, they're
00:33:55
leading but they're leading in something that isn't that big yet. Now you would
00:33:59
say how could it not be big? And what I would say is because most of the stuff that's being written is still white
00:34:05
sheet denovo code. And I think the ugly truth is I don't care what model you
00:34:11
have, but the long horizon ability for any of these models to actually build enterprisegrade software is still
00:34:20
shiit [ __ ] And that's the actual lived experience. Not for me, but when I call
00:34:26
on our customers, half a trillion dollar banks, hundred billion dollar insurance
00:34:31
companies, none of these guys are like, "Wow, it just works out of the box." It
00:34:34
doesn't work. So, most of it is still handtuned. So, until I can honestly tell
00:34:41
you that we can point a model at this with the right guard rails, which I can't today, what I would say is it's a
00:34:48
small market that will become large as these models become better. But we are in the world where we have 50
00:34:57
years of accumulated tech debt as a world. And I suspect when you enumerate the number of lines that that
00:35:04
represents, it's hundreds of trillions of lines of just pretty marginal mediocre code to bad code. On top of
00:35:12
that, we have all these legacy languages. I'll tell you one of our customers, they have to go and get
00:35:17
60year-old pensioners to come into the office to interpret cope. No, I'm not
00:35:22
joking. This is a >> snowball for trend. >> This is a hundred billion dollar a year
00:35:26
revenue company and that's how they solve these problems. It's not opus just
00:35:31
solves it. So I I would just keep in mind that most of the tech debt in the world that exists 99% of it is still
00:35:39
poorly addressed by these models. We are untying this Gordian knot. It's going to
00:35:44
take decades to do it right. So all the breathlessness about all this other stuff, I really think it's not where the
00:35:49
money is. It's not the big time stuff. And you can tell me, "Oh yeah, it's
00:35:53
going to be the future." And I would say, "Tell this business that's a
00:35:56
hundred billion dollars a year of revenue and 50 million billing relationships that all of a sudden
00:36:01
you're going to open claw your way to a solution." It's [ __ ] Not to say
00:36:05
that you can't have a great chief of staff, and not to say you can't do some
00:36:09
useful stuff and trickery and, you know, have a good knowledge base. I'd like
00:36:13
that, too. But the core things that your lived experience sits on today is a mess
00:36:20
of tech debt that will get very slowly replaced. And that's just the reality of
00:36:24
life. >> And there are competitors that are extremely disruptive. I'll tell you
00:36:28
about one. We talked about Bit Tensor Tao on this program a couple weeks ago when we had the um Jensen interview. You
00:36:34
brought it up actually Chimath. There's a there's a project that's subnet 62.
00:36:38
It's called Ridges AI. And what they're doing is a competitor that is not only
00:36:44
open- source but anybody can contribute to it. They spent about a million dollars in tow like rewards and in 45
00:36:50
days they hit 80% of what Claude 4 is and they did that in under 45 days. The way that works is they give rewards for
00:36:58
people who and they can do this anonymously make that coding product which is like codeex or claude code
00:37:05
better. that flywheel is racing right now with participation in the same way Bitcoin is. So you're going to see a lot
00:37:13
of open- source and these crypto open-source combinations and uh anybody who's not investigated this, I highly
00:37:21
recommend you investigate this. >> I do think you're right about one specific thing. I would put zero,
00:37:26
literally the probability zero of any important company worth anything more than a dollar having and outsourcing
00:37:34
their production code to an open source project. That'll never happen. However,
00:37:37
what will happen though is when you look at the cost of training this 10 trillion
00:37:43
parameter model on Blackwell and when you look in the future let's just say in
00:37:50
six or nine months that a 15 or 20 trillion perm model is going to get trained on Vera Rubin I think Jason
00:37:56
where you are right I have zero and just to be clear I have no investments in this at all I'm
00:38:03
>> to be so super clear >> I'm just observing because another project other than Bit Tensor that
00:38:07
someone brought up to me is Venice. The concept of opensource training and orchestration
00:38:14
is a hugely disruptive idea which is the complete orthogonal attack vector to this idea that you have to raise tens
00:38:22
and tens of billions of dollars to train your models because if the capital markets run out of 10 and 20 billion
00:38:29
dollar checks to give people the only solution is to be totally distributed. I tend to agree with you Jason that there
00:38:35
is going to be at some point a very successful open source project for pre-training.
00:38:42
Absolutely. Will there never ever be an open- source way where a real company that has any skin in the game says here
00:38:49
guys re-engineer my codebase as an open source project. Never going to happen. >> Yeah, I I think the coding tools will.
00:38:55
And if you look at the history of open source, Brad, you actually I think had a lot of bets in this space. Linux,
00:39:00
Kubernetes, Apache, Postgress, like Terraform, like these open source projects are deep inside of enterprises.
00:39:07
Deep. And we're sitting here 15, 20 years ago, the same argument was made. Nobody will ever adopt these inside the
00:39:13
enterprise. You got to go with Oracle, whatever. And fair enough, many people do. But I think this is this $29 ridges
00:39:22
um subscription to do this versus 200. It's starting to take hold inside of startups. And that's where I always look
00:39:29
at the tip of the spear. Startups love to, you know, use open source products. I think this could be the next big
00:39:34
thing. But listen, I I I invest in things that have a 90% chance of going to zero. So do your own research. No
00:39:41
crying in the casino. >> Can I just make a a final few points? So just just quickly so number one is with
00:39:49
respect to this market for code or code tokens whatever you want to call it >> it might be 5% today meaning 5% of the
00:39:56
codes AI generated versus human generated I think it's going to 95% I mean I bet any amount of money on that
00:40:02
the only question is when probably over the next few years so that's point number one point number two is it's
00:40:08
possible that if you're the early leader in coding as a AI model company let's
00:40:15
say you have 50 to 60% of market share. You have the most developers using it. Therefore, you have the most access to
00:40:21
code bases. You might get the most training tokens. There is a potential flywheel there where you can see the
00:40:29
early market leader consolidating its lead because it's generating the most code tokens and it's getting access to
00:40:34
the most existing code. Now, I'm not saying for sure that's going to happen.
00:40:38
is possible that the other guys catch up, but I think there is a possibility of a flywheel there and strong, I guess
00:40:45
you'd call it data scale effects, things like that. So, I do believe that the
00:40:49
market for coding tokens could be monopolized. Third, Anthropic's revenue run rate, as based on what I can tell
00:40:56
and what's been publicly released, is the fastest growing revenue run rate at
00:41:01
scale that I think we've ever seen. Uh, we >> perfect segue. It's the next story.
00:41:05
Okay, maybe >> pull up the the tweets. But this thing is ramping at a rate we've never seen
00:41:10
before. >> We can get into that in a second. But just one last final point
00:41:15
>> is I think it's pretty clear that where we go from here is agents and coding
00:41:21
gives you a huge step up on agents because you know one of the main things that agents need to do is is write code
00:41:27
to be able to enable them to complete tasks. >> Correct. And so if it is the case that
00:41:34
coding is this huge market that's going to be dominated by one or two companies
00:41:40
and then that leads to another huge market which is agents. My point is just I think all these companies need to
00:41:46
behave in a very clean way >> and not engage in tactics that later the government might say you know what that
00:41:53
was anti-competitive. Everyone should just I think play fair. Do not engage in discrimination against other people's
00:41:59
products. engage in fair pricing. I'm not accusing anyone of breaking any of
00:42:03
the rules, but what I'm saying is that eventually the government's going to
00:42:07
look at this market with the benefit of 2020 hindsight and I think everyone should just basically, you know, keep it
00:42:14
>> keep your nose clean. >> Keep it tight. Keep it tight. >> Keep it tight. Tight is right. I think
00:42:19
is an excellent point. Let's talk about the revenue ramp of Anthropic. This is
00:42:24
just unprecedented. Anthropic's revenue run rate has topped 30 billion with a B.
00:42:31
Early 2023, they turned on revenue. They started charging for API access. End of
00:42:35
2024, they're at a billion dollar run rate. February 25, they launched Claw Code. That was the starter pistol. Mid
00:42:42
2025, $4 billion run rate. End of 2025, $9 billion run rate. Just a couple of months later in April, $30 billion run
00:42:52
rate. Yes, that's right. Triple. Uh and the way they did this is enterprise uh
00:42:57
customers are a major part of the spend. Dario announced a couple of months ago that there's over a thousand enterprises
00:43:04
paying over 1 million annually. This is truly mindboggling when you think about it because those are the most coveted
00:43:12
customers in the world. These are the big fish that you just uh when people are running enterprise software, they
00:43:18
they dream Slack dreamed of getting these million-dollar customers. Uh Salesforce dreams of getting these
00:43:23
million-dollar customers. Brad, you're an investor. I guess uh Sam famously on
00:43:27
BG2 asked you to sell your uh OpenAI stock back to him. You didn't. You demired, but you're an investor in both.
00:43:36
How shocking is it to you to place both of those bets and then see one of them come from so far behind? You know, Chat
00:43:44
GPT has 900 million users. I don't know if they've they've passed a billion
00:43:48
officially yet, but they are the Verb, right? They're the Uber. They're the
00:43:52
Xerox. They're the Polaroid of AI, but they didn't go after the enterprise.
00:43:58
Daario made that and Daario worked. He was the co-founder of OpenAI. He left and according to the New Yorker story
00:44:04
that came out from Ronan Farrell this week, he was basically left because of his disgust in working with Sam Alman.
00:44:13
Your thoughts? >> Well, you know, before we go down the OpenAI rabbit hole, let's just really
00:44:17
contextualize like what's going on here. You know, check I I I have this additional chart. you showed one, you
00:44:23
know, they added 4 billion of revenue in January, 7 billion in February, 11 billion of annualized run rates, um, or
00:44:31
10 or 11 billion in March, just to put in perspective, that's data bricks plus
00:44:35
Palanteer combined that they added in a single month, right? So we started with everybody at the start of the year
00:44:42
ringing their hands including you know Gurley and others saying we're in a big
00:44:46
bubble asking whether the AI revenues would show up to justify all of this investment and bam you have the largest
00:44:53
revenue explosion in the history of technology. So the company's plans were to end the year at about a $30 billion
00:45:01
ex exit run rate. They got there by the end of March right and I suspect that it's continuing in April. So you have to
00:45:08
ask what's going on and what's the big so what the first thing for me is that
00:45:13
model and product capability just hit this threshold we talked about earlier near AGI whatever the hell you want to
00:45:19
call it and everybody like alimter said damn this is so good I have to have it this is no longer about my IT budget
00:45:26
this is about labor augmentation and labor replacement and by the way co-work is growing even faster than Claude go at
00:45:35
the same stage of development So what it showed is we have a near infinite TAM. It turns out that the TAM
00:45:42
for intelligence is radically different than anything that we've seen before.
00:45:47
And I think the best example of this, right? This is millions of self-interested parties, consumers,
00:45:54
enterprises, a thousand now over a million dollars. Right? It's not that there was some great go to market and
00:46:01
anthropic that all of a sudden, you know, they snuck up and blew everybody away. No, it was companies demanding the
00:46:06
product. They're getting throttled on the product. Why? Because it's so good.
00:46:10
It makes them better at their business. We are all self-interested actors. And when millions of those people are all
00:46:16
making the same decision, there's a huge tell. And the tell here is that the TAM
00:46:21
is as big as Daario and Sam and others have been saying. We knew intelligence was going to scale on the exponential.
00:46:28
The question was whether revenue will scale on the exponential, and that's what we're seeing. And remember, they're
00:46:33
doing this with only 1 1/2 to 2 gawatt of compute, right? These guys are massively compute constrained. They're
00:46:41
each going to be adding 3 GW of compute this year. And so that will unlock they would be growing even faster. But for
00:46:49
that, and then Jason, to your point about the open source models that we all want to be a part of this solution, I've
00:46:55
talked to a lot of big companies, 65 to 70% of their token consumption is open-source model, right? are these
00:47:02
cheap Chinese and other tokens. So these revenue ramps are happening while the world is already using open source. This
00:47:10
is not frontier only. This is Frontier plus open source. We're going to see massive token optimization over the
00:47:16
course of the year. But what happens on this Jebans paradox is the co the unit costs right of intelligence is
00:47:23
plummeting. Not the cost of tokens. The unit cost of intelligence is plummeting because the capabilities of these models
00:47:30
is so much better. I look at what it does for Altimeter day in and day out. I talked to a major uh company yesterday.
00:47:37
They're on a run rate to do a hundred million of token consumption this year
00:47:41
on about $5 billion in opex. They think that we're now nearing peak employment
00:47:46
in their company, but that their token their intelligence consumption, okay, let's not call it token consumption,
00:47:52
right? because tokens may go up a lot, but their intelligence consumption is going to go up, you know, a lot. So, I
00:47:59
would leave you with this. We're early to Chimas's point. We have low penetration of the global 2000. We have
00:48:06
low penetration of the use cases. We have low penetration of of within the use cases that they're already using.
00:48:14
And the models are only getting better. So I think when you look out toward the end of the year, I would not be shocked
00:48:20
if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to 100 billion in revenue. And by the way, doing it at the same time that
00:48:28
OpenAI, who is also on the wave, they'll be releasing an incredible model in the
00:48:32
next imminently. They're going to be on that wave and you're going to see an
00:48:36
inflection in their revenues as well. >> Okay, Chimath, question one has been
00:48:41
answered. The question of hey, does this stuff actually have utility? that went from a question mark to an exclamation
00:48:46
point. Of course, it's got utility. People are getting value from it. And it
00:48:49
might be variable. Some people get more value than others. Number two, the revenue ramp was a big question. Now,
00:48:54
that's turned into an exclamation point. The final piece of the puzzle that you've brought up many times is can this
00:48:59
be profitable? And these companies are burning through a large amount of cash. So, what is your take on when these
00:49:07
companies can get out of the J curve? We talked about this, I think, three episodes ago. I estimated like we're
00:49:12
going to be looking at $4500 billion in investment into these data centers at a minimum and then they have to climb out
00:49:20
of that to get to profitability. So what are your thoughts on these becoming profitable companies? Do you remember
00:49:27
the investor that published this list Jason where he put all of the terms you talk
00:49:35
about when one of the terms you can't talk about is profit. It's a list where
00:49:38
it's like if you can't talk about free cash flow, you talk about IBIDA. When
00:49:43
you can't talk about IBIDA, you talk about >> margina. When you can't talk about that, you talk
00:49:49
about revenue. And then when you can't talk about revenue, you talk about gross
00:49:53
revenue >> bookings. >> So you can kind of figure out, I think, where we are in any part of any
00:50:01
cycle by just indexing into what does everybody talk about. I think where we are is we are between gross revenue and
00:50:11
net revenue. That's where the discussion is. >> Okay. >> There was another article I think today
00:50:16
in I think maybe it was the information that tried to categorize and distinguish
00:50:21
that anthropic presents gross, open AI presents net. They're different. We don't know what the various take rates
00:50:29
are. So they're saying that there's a difference. If it's not true, there's
00:50:33
been no clarity provided by these companies. So, at a minimum, you have this confusion where there's the
00:50:39
breathless talk. Then there's people that don't even know the difference
00:50:41
between actual recognized revenue and run rate revenue and how to multi. I mean, so we're definitely there, okay?
00:50:48
We can quibble about the details, but we are not at the place where people are like, "Oh, here's your steadystate, you
00:50:53
know, free cash flow margin, and here's what your EBA does." We're never we're
00:50:56
we're years from that. They're gonna have token maxing IBA like IB at the
00:51:02
Wii. >> The thing that we need to understand is how gross margin negative is this
00:51:06
revenue growth. >> We don't know that and at least we don't as outsiders.
00:51:11
>> Brad might know. >> Brad may know. I I I I will tell you think about this. What are their big
00:51:16
cost inputs? The number one cost input is the cost of compute. Cost of compute. >> Right? I just told you they only have a
00:51:23
gigawatt and a half of compute. and they have that gigawatt and a half of compute
00:51:26
whether they have a billion in revenue or whether they have 80 billion in revenue. So you might actually expect to
00:51:33
see these companies their gross margins are exploding higher like the fastest increase in gross margins I've probably
00:51:39
seen out of any technology company. So this is not gross margin negative you're
00:51:42
saying? >> No definitely not gross margin negative. And what I would tell you
00:51:46
>> so that they must be hugely profitable then >> well you may see accidental why I call
00:51:51
it accidental profitability. They may not be able to spend this revenue fast enough chamath on compute. And remember
00:51:58
it's only 2500 people. Google crossed this revenue threshold when they had 120,000 people. These guys have 2500
00:52:07
people. So the only thing you can really spend money on, right, is compute. And they can't stand up the compute fast
00:52:12
enough. >> But none of this foots to me then to be honest because if you were on a
00:52:17
threshold of 90% plus gross margin, >> I'm not saying it's there. I'm not
00:52:22
saying it's 90% plus. I'm just saying it's gone from meaningfully negative 18
00:52:27
months ago to, you know, very very positive. I've seen rumored out there 50% is what you're saying. The trend is
00:52:34
there. >> Let me just say this. I think if you're an incumbent, you want
00:52:40
the cost of compute to go down. I think if you're not an incumbent, so specifically, who do I mean? Meta,
00:52:47
Google, and SpaceX. I think those three people who have all three of them, well, sorry, Meta and
00:52:55
Google have a fortress balance sheet. I think by the end of June, SpaceX will also have a fortress balance sheet. What
00:53:02
they will want to do is they will want to make this a compute problem because they will control the the conditions on
00:53:07
the field. You already see this today. >> Yeah. >> Meta's models today, what people's
00:53:12
general reviews are it's okay, but the one thing that people say is it's
00:53:16
incredibly performant. The model quality is okay, but the performance is great, which speaks to Meta's huge advantage.
00:53:23
They have a massive compute infrastructure. So if you're if you're not open AI and anthropic,
00:53:28
they'll want to make this a capital problem because then they can win it. If
00:53:31
you're anthropic and open AI, you want this thing to be as efficient as possible.
00:53:36
I think where we are is very much in the early innings. And we're bumbling around
00:53:40
talking about gross margins and you know revenues. We are not at profitability. And what is true for Facebook and what
00:53:47
was true for Google was irrespective of where they got to a billion. Who g cares? They were profitable by year
00:53:54
three and they never looked back. I was there. I remember it was glorious. >> The the cost the cost of building uh you
00:54:03
know AI totally stipulate is radically higher than the cost of building retrieval at
00:54:08
Google, right? Like it's just a fundamentally more expensive problem. But I will tell you that there's a lot
00:54:14
of FUD out there about negative gross margins. I mean Jason, you started the segment by saying they're burning
00:54:19
through large amounts of cash. I think people are going to be shocked at the burn how low the burn levels are at
00:54:24
these companies. >> Anthropic or Open AI. >> Yes. And and I would say at Open AI as
00:54:28
well like they're if they're on you know if they do $50 billion this year again
00:54:33
just look at the number of people they have revenue per people. It's pretty low
00:54:37
and the inference cost is plummeting. Inference cost is down by 90% year-over-year. And so just finally I
00:54:43
want to make respond to this point about gross versus net uh this this tweet that
00:54:48
Chimath was referencing. Okay, so there's a certain percentage, a smallalish percentage of Anthropics
00:54:54
revenue, right, that they distribute through the hyperscalers and like a lot of arrangements, whether it's Snowflake
00:54:59
or Data Bricks or others, you pay a commission, right, uh on on that. I will just tell you that you're talking
00:55:05
singledigit percentage of total revenue of these companies. So the gross versus net thing isn't what's being reported.
00:55:11
like the apples for apples is pretty easy and if you want to be conservative on it take down Anthropic's revenue by
00:55:17
you know five to 10% which you know again I don't I think it's better to
00:55:21
gross up OpenAI's revenue but any way you do it I just think it's a distraction from what's really what's
00:55:26
really going on here happy to >> s you have any thoughts on this uh massive revenue ramp
00:55:31
>> yeah I mean I want to go back to a point that Brad made because I think it was
00:55:35
just really important and I want to just underline it consider where we were at the beginning of the year and What
00:55:41
everybody was saying is that AI was a big bubble and the evidence they would point to was the fact that hundreds of
00:55:48
billions of dollars was going into capex that needed to be spent on these data centers and there was no evidence of
00:55:55
significant revenue to justify that spend. Where was the ROI? By the way, as an aside, the same doomers who were
00:56:02
saying that AI was in a bubble were also the ones who were saying that AI was so
00:56:06
powerful it's going to put us all out of work and it's going to, you know, take
00:56:10
over from humanity. I mean, in other words, they couldn't decide if AI was too powerful or not powerful enough. But
00:56:17
putting aside that contradiction, they clearly were making this case that AI was this big bubble and that there'd be
00:56:23
no payoff or justification for this massive capex that's being spent. And I think we're starting to see here there
00:56:31
is justification for it. Uh we're seeing it just in this one vertical of AI which
00:56:36
is coding. We're again seeing the fastest revenue growth in history. It's
00:56:40
utterly unprecedented. And this is just one category or vertical of AI. We know that agents are coming next and the
00:56:49
enterprise adoption of that is going to be absolutely massive. So, I guess what I'm saying is that this is early proof
00:56:56
for I think the thing that makes Silicon Valley special, which is we're willing
00:57:02
to basically bet on things that just intuitively on a gut level we know are the next big thing. We're not that
00:57:09
spreadsheet driven. Actually, Silicon Valley believes that if you build it, they will come and is willing to finance
00:57:15
that build out. And that's basically what's been happening. Again, just the
00:57:19
top four hyperscalers, $350 billion of expected capex this year on its way, I think Jensen said 1 trillion by 2030.
00:57:27
So, Silicon Valley, whether it's big companies, whether it's founders, they're always willing to bet on this
00:57:32
next big thing. They're not like Wall Street. They don't need, you know,
00:57:35
specialist to tell them where to go. They know where the technology is going and they make their bets based on that.
00:57:42
And I think that there is going to be a big payoff for this. And I think it's
00:57:47
the thing that's going to make our economy and the United States in general remain extremely dynamic and in the lead
00:57:53
on this thing is that we are willing to make those kinds of bets. And I think it's going to pay off big time.
00:57:59
>> Yeah, clearly. Hey, um Brad, you didn't answer my question about the vibes over
00:58:04
at OpenAI versus Quad. Open AI is um I wouldn't say reeling but there's a lot
00:58:11
of hand ringing going on a lot of employees leaving a lot of people who are wondering like is our strategy the
00:58:18
winning strategy of like consumer first they shut down Sora you know unwinding the Disney deal and really trying to get
00:58:26
the company focused and it's kind of like I mean listen the New Yorker story
00:58:29
was a bit of a rehash so I don't think we have to go into the blowby-blow because we covered here three years ago
00:58:35
but the truth is a lot of the great founders, co-founders of OpenAI and a lot of the great contributors are now at
00:58:43
Anthropic and other large language models. And in the secondary market, OpenAI is trading lower than the last
00:58:50
valuation. And Anthropic is trading significantly above the $380 billion. So maybe talk a little bit about this
00:58:58
competition, this Microsoft versus Apple, this Google versus Facebook. Well, let's let's start with immense
00:59:06
credit where credit is due. Anthropic was literally counted out of the game last year. Y,
00:59:10
>> right? And here they come over the last 12 months and and and they've kicked
00:59:14
OpenAI's ass over the last 90 days, right? And what did Anthropic do? Anthropic made choices. No multimodal,
00:59:22
no video, no hardware, no chips, no building data centers. They said, "We're
00:59:26
just going to focus on coding and co-work. We think that is the path to AGI and and and and ASI." They executed
00:59:32
their butts off. They took the lead. 2500 people tight pulling on the ore in the same direction. But I think you
00:59:40
would be seriously foolish to count out open AI, right? And I think we're we're
00:59:45
we're at peak open AI FUD. And I'll tell you, it starts with great researchers
00:59:50
and great models. And I think when you see the Spud model, they're about ready
00:59:53
to release. I think it's going to be an excellent model. Shows that they're
00:59:57
firmly on the wave. Um, if you look at what's going on with Codeex, incredible
01:00:02
ramp on Codeex, fastest ramping model with 5.4, I think 5.5 or Spud, whatever we're going to call, it's going to be an
01:00:09
even faster ramp. >> Have you seen Spud? Have you used it? Have you gotten a preview?
01:00:13
>> People are using Spud, right? So, it it is being previewed and so >> So, you're talking to people who've used
01:00:19
it and what are they telling you? >> They're telling us that it's an
01:00:22
incredible model on par with Mythos, right? and that it's a a very usable model in terms of um how it's packaged.
01:00:30
I will say that back to David's point now this is the most important point I
01:00:35
think anybody can take away here. This is not zero sum. The TAM of intelligence is dramatically larger than
01:00:44
any TAM we've ever seen in our investing careers over the last two decades. Right? And if you're on the wave, which
01:00:50
Open AAI is, you are going to be selling into the world's biggest TAM, they are
01:00:55
going to build a very big company. I'm a buyer of the shares today. Notwithstanding all of the vibes that
01:01:01
you describe, I think these companies are firmly on the wave. They are jarred. They are sitting there saying, "What did
01:01:08
we do wrong? And how do we get our mojo back?" They want to compete. It is embarrassing to people on the research
01:01:14
team and the product team over there. So, I'm not saying there's not a real
01:01:18
awakening occurring there, but I think that's what the case is. And by the way,
01:01:22
to Chamas's point, do not count out Meta, right? I think Meta is absolutely in this game. Google is absolutely in
01:01:28
this game. Elon is absolutely in this game. And if you're >> got some stuff dropping shortly that's
01:01:33
going to be very impressive. >> If you're on team America, the fact that
01:01:36
we have five frontier models competing against each other and David made sure they weren't throttled by excessive
01:01:43
government regulation. We have mythos come out. It's a self-imposed safe harbor, you know, to harden our system.
01:01:50
It wasn't a call for moratoriums or getting the government involved. We have
01:01:54
the type of competition that's causing us to accelerate our lead against the
01:01:58
rest of the world. We can't take our eye off the prize. We got to stop adversarial distillation and we need to
01:02:03
make sure that we're distributing our products around the world. But I view this as really good for team America.
01:02:09
>> Well said. And here is your poly market IPOs before 2027. Obviously SpaceX at
01:02:16
95% uh Cerebrus at 94% and uh hey number five on this list 51% chance that Anthropic goes out before the end of the
01:02:26
year. 44% chance that OpenAI comes out before then. All right here is the closing market cap for Anthropic on Poly
01:02:36
Market only $158,000 in volume. So, Chimath, when you put in 400K, you're going to really tilt this market.
01:02:44
78% chance that it's above 600 billion, 19% chance that it doesn't go out. So,
01:02:51
it's looking like this will be a decent investment for you. Brad, what valuation
01:02:55
did you get into Anthropic at? >> We first invested in I believe it was the
01:03:01
uh 30 or $150 billion round. >> So, this will be a 7x 5x for Altimeter L, please. Congratulations. I mean, no,
01:03:09
listen. I I I again, there are lots of people who were there before us and who are on the board and who are going to do
01:03:14
much better than that. What' you put in? 50. >> What' you put in? >> No, we've got billions in both
01:03:19
companies. Uh >> billions in both companies. Oh my lord. >> I think there's this existential thing
01:03:26
going on in venture today. David could talk about it as well. I mean people can't they're extraordinarily nervous
01:03:33
about you look at the IGV stock index down 30% year to date down 5% today all software stocks plummeting right venture
01:03:43
capitalists are terrified to invest money in anything other than these frontier models and things like SpaceX
01:03:51
or military modernization finding something that's out of harm's way of AI
01:03:56
right where you can count on the terminal value to Chamas insights over the last few weeks is very difficult to
01:04:02
do. That's why you see this crowding. So, we've taken a barbell approach,
01:04:05
right? We've got a lot in what we think are the most important companies that
01:04:09
are on the frontier and then we're betting with on really small teams that we think have very defensible businesses
01:04:15
in a world of uh you know, AGI. But it's >> what happens to all these enterprise
01:04:19
software companies? Do they become PE takeouts? Do they get consolidated? um or do they just have to adopt these AI
01:04:27
technologies and and and solve this problem of hey the frontier model is just going to solve for whatever these
01:04:34
niche software companies do. >> I think the market's probably being a little too pessimistic with respect to
01:04:40
at least some of these software companies. I mean, obviously, there's going to be big differences in the
01:04:45
quality of the modes of these companies. And so, look, software is going to be a
01:04:51
lot cheaper and easier to generate, but I'm not sure that was the competitive
01:04:55
advantage of a lot of these companies. So, there's probably a little bit of the
01:04:59
baby being thrown out with the bathwater right now, and there probably are some value buys in enterprise software. I
01:05:05
think the interesting question here and we've been talking about this for a couple of years in the pod is just where
01:05:10
you see the AI value capture being in terms of layer of the stack. Remember where we started it was really just the
01:05:17
chip layer of the stack was where all the value capture was. It was basically Nvidia was the first company to be worth
01:05:23
multiple trillions of dollars because of AI. And for a while it looked like that's where all the value capture was
01:05:30
going to be because OpenAI for example was losing so much money and Anthropic wasn't on the radar as much. Now we're
01:05:36
seeing wait a second um you know it's not just the chip companies it's also
01:05:40
the hyperscalers are now benefiting and now we're seeing at the model layer it
01:05:44
looks like Enthropic and Open AI they're all going to be huge beneficiaries. I
01:05:49
think the next question is at the application layer of the stack. Okay. Well, now does all that value capture
01:05:54
just get eaten by the model companies or are there applications that get turbocharged? I guess you could say that
01:06:00
Palunteer is already one of them, right? It's an application company that's been
01:06:04
turbocharged by these model capabilities. Who else will be a big beneficiary? Is it again, is it all
01:06:10
going to be at the model layer or will you see an explosion of value at the application layer? I'm hoping obviously
01:06:16
that it'll be at all layers of the stack. PC beneficiaries. But to me, that's a really interesting question
01:06:22
right now. >> Yeah. What happens to Salesforce, HubSpot, you know, Oracle, right down
01:06:26
the line? David, uh, Chimati, your thoughts here, uh, on the the layers here and where the value is captured.
01:06:34
>> It's too early to tell. >> Too early to tell, right? And energy we
01:06:37
kind of put into sort of data center as well, but that's obviously been a clear
01:06:41
winner. Little housekeeping here. Liquidity, put a little Tiffany in here. uh producer Nick D is sold out. There's
01:06:49
a wait list of hundreds of people, but it is what it is, folks. If you snooze, you lose and top tier speakers are
01:06:56
coming. Uh it's going to be great. We'll get a an update from But I think Brad,
01:07:00
you're going to be joining us again. Yes. For liquidity. >> I have an update.
01:07:03
>> That's probably not your headliner, though. I'm probably not your headliner.
01:07:06
>> No, but you always score so high. Every event you've spoken at, you've been
01:07:09
either number one, two, I don't think you've ever dropped to three. Go ahead,
01:07:14
Sham. Make your announcement here. >> Nat sent me an article from Wikipedia
01:07:19
about penile links when you guys are talking about >> breaking news. >> Showing me showing me that I'm in the
01:07:24
large category. Top 5%. She highlighted it. >> Top 5%. Okay. And that's with Is that
01:07:30
with Nano Banana or without? Is that >> She just texted dummy. It's clogged. My
01:07:35
apologies. Clogged. >> Oh. >> All right. This is why Jamath isn't
01:07:40
afraid of the cyber is because nothing's going to come out that's more embarrassing than what he says himself
01:07:44
on the box. >> He's like Bezos. When Bezos got hacked, HE'S LIKE, "GUYS, I GOT HACKED."
01:07:49
>> SO, I saw the agenda for this thing. It's incredible. Congrats to you guys. I
01:07:52
mean, like the uh like just the fun of being in Napa, all the poker, all the the dining experience. This is five star
01:08:00
all the It looks really >> six-star. It's a man level because Chimath >> was, I dare I say, belligerent in his
01:08:08
demands. He said, "This has to be six-star or I will not show up." Jake
01:08:12
Al. I said, "Okay, boss, get to work." And uh, Chimath, what do you got any? No
01:08:17
mids. This is all elite. And for the hundreds of people who are on the wait list, I am sorry, but we have a capacity
01:08:22
issue. We'll try to get you in for next year. But Chim, give us some updates
01:08:26
here. You have any updates that you want to share? because you are running programming for liquidity 2026 up in
01:08:31
Yon. >> Look, it's going really well. Really excited to hear all of these
01:08:36
great folks speak. I think the next two will release today. Brad Gersonner and Thomas Leaf of COTU
01:08:44
>> of CO2. That's a great get. >> We also have I think three people
01:08:47
confirmed for their best ideas pitch. Really interesting folks. They each run between one and six or seven billion
01:08:55
>> awesome >> superstar compounders early in their career. >> This is a new zone chamat.
01:09:00
>> It's great. So right now we have Bill Aman, we have Andre Carpathy, we have
01:09:05
Dan Loe, we have Thomas Lefont, we have Brad Gersner, we have Sarah Frier and more to come. We will announce more.
01:09:12
>> There might be one or two surprises. Jay Cal >> and a couple and a couple of surprises.
01:09:17
>> Yeah, we we don't announce all the speakers. Jay Cal's got a couple of
01:09:20
surprises coming. And if you didn't get in to liquidity, apologies. You're on
01:09:25
the wait list. We are going to be hosting the fifth annual all-in summit in Los Angeles
01:09:33
September 13th to the 15th of Sax. You going to come to that? >> Allin.com/events.
01:09:40
>> Sax, you should come to that. >> I've been advised that I can attend
01:09:43
business. I can be in the state for business reasons. >> Okay, there you go. Then we'll see you
01:09:47
at liquidity and the summit. Correct. That's that's big news. Now we just got
01:09:51
a bunch of Sachs stands who are racing. Uh and now we're going to get Sachs at
01:09:55
This is what happens every year behind the scenes. >> Sachs at the last minute says, "Oh, I
01:10:00
have four speakers and I have 72 people who need tickets and then the whole team
01:10:04
has to like do a fire drill 48 hours before the event." Okay, here we go, guys. We're going to go to the third
01:10:09
rail here. We got to catch up on the Iran war. Here's the latest. Two weeks into a ceasefire have started just two
01:10:17
days ago at the taping of this VP JD Vance, friend of the pod is a and some special consultants Wikoff and friend of
01:10:25
the pod Jared Kushner are headed to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan for talks this very weekend. So while you're
01:10:33
listening to this event, they are going to be working on the peace deal. Easter Sunday, Trump posted a truth stating,
01:10:39
"Open the [ __ ] straight, you crazy bastards, or you're going to be living
01:10:43
in hell. Just watch." Praise be to Allah. On Tuesday morning, Trump posted uh a another threat on social media. A
01:10:50
whole civilization will die tonight. Never to be brought back again. I don't
01:10:55
want that to happen, but it probably will. Tweets were obviously discussed uh a lot over the last week. He gave him an
01:11:01
8:00 p.m. deadline. At 6:30 p.m. POTUS announced on Truth Social that he had agreed. President
01:11:08
Trump had agreed to a two-week ceasefire if Iran opens the straight. He also said, "Hey, listen. We got the straight.
01:11:15
Maybe there'll be a toll booth, but we'll take the majority of the toll and
01:11:18
we'll split it with Iran." Here's the quote. We received a 10-point proposal
01:11:22
from Iran, and we believe it's a workable it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. And apparently Netanyahu
01:11:31
took the ceasefire to mean level Lebanon dropping 160 bombs in 10 minutes yesterday. Saxs, uh, you were out last
01:11:38
week. Everybody wants to know your position on the war. I'll hand it off to you. What are your thoughts on how on
01:11:44
the two ceasefire and everything that's occurred up until this point? >> Well, look, I have to preface what I'm
01:11:49
about to say, which is I'm not part of the foreign policy team at the White House. And the last time I commented on
01:11:57
the war on this show, it somehow made international headlines that Trump advisor says XYZ.
01:12:05
And I'm not a Trump adviser on this issue. I think that'd be a fair headline
01:12:09
to write if it was a technology issue, but this is not. So whatever I say is just my personal opinion, but then the
01:12:16
media is going to somehow portray it or attribute it >> to the White House or try and create an
01:12:20
issue out of it. So, I feel like I'm limited in what I can say except that to
01:12:25
say that I think it's terrific that we have the ceasefire. I think it's great
01:12:30
that there's going to be this meeting in Islamabad to hammer it out. And I think
01:12:37
what the president's accomplished so far with the ceasefire is it's a great thing
01:12:41
because what happens with these wars is they take on a life of their own, meaning they tend to go up the
01:12:47
escalation ladder, right? And there's a lot of podcasts that are discussing the
01:12:50
so-called escalation trap and supposedly there are stages to this based on historical patterns. And so I think it's
01:12:56
actually very hard to pull out of these things and I give the president tremendous credit for negotiating the
01:13:02
ceasefire that we've achieved so far and then sending the team to hopefully work
01:13:06
this out. >> Brad, actually my first trip to the Middle East was when you and I uh maybe
01:13:10
four years ago when Thank you for taking me. What is your take on where we're at
01:13:14
here? I think we're just wrapped up week six of this and we're going into week
01:13:17
seven. >> First, on March 4th, I tweeted the Trump doctrine in Iran. Massively destroy all
01:13:23
military capa capabilities. Kill the people building lethal weapons to use against us and get out. Reserve the
01:13:29
right to do it again if needed. Zero efforts to build Misonian democracy. Iran's going to have to build what comes
01:13:35
next. And I think what the market has said right if you look back at last year on tariffs Jason the top tobottom draw
01:13:42
down was about 15% on the NASDAQ intraday is down 22%. Okay, the draw down in this period over
01:13:51
Iran was only down about 5 to 7% on S&P and NASDAQ, right? So, the market has
01:13:58
said, listen, re trust Trump at his words. He said he's not going to get into an entangled war here. I think he
01:14:05
terrifies the hell out of people with his tweets about, you know, destroying civilization and all this other stuff.
01:14:10
But I think people, even though they don't like to hear it, they've resolved
01:14:14
for themselves that when he says he's going to get out, he will in fact get out. Of course, there was a lot of hand
01:14:18
ringing, but if you look at the markets today, we basically bounced all the way back from where we were pre-Iran on both
01:14:26
the S&P and the NASDAQ. If in fact we land the plane, if JD lands the plane,
01:14:31
and by the way, on Lebanon, yes, they were bombing yesterday, but Netanyahu has now said that you're going to have
01:14:36
direct government talks between Israel and Lebanon. So, if the if we land the plane on these two things, I think it's
01:14:42
off to the races in the market. By the way, while everybody's focused on Iran,
01:14:47
stay tuned. I think we're getting close to a deal on Ukraine, Russia, right?
01:14:51
Venezuela is, you know, kind of going seemingly very well. I think there's also going to be news on Cuba. You could
01:14:58
envision a world there's risk to the downside. Certainly, I will stipulate, but you also have to pay attention to
01:15:03
the risk to the upside. If you land the plane on those things heading into America 250 July 4th, the market could
01:15:10
really take off. >> All right. Well, let's uh maybe uplevel this a little bit and talk about why
01:15:15
we're in this war to begin with. And that's the big discussion amongst both
01:15:19
sides of the aisle. On Tuesday, the New York Times dropped an inside the room piece on how President Trump made the
01:15:26
decision according to this report, if it's true. I know some people don't uh subscribe to
01:15:32
the New York Times anymore or think it's fake news, but how Trump decided to
01:15:36
basically follow Netanyahu into this war. On February 11th, Netanyahu met with Trump at the White House where he
01:15:41
gave him a four-part pitch on attacking Iran. JD Vance, according to the story, if it's true, disclaimer, disclaimer,
01:15:48
warned Trump that the war could cause regional chaos and break apart Trump's
01:15:53
MAGA 2.0, the Trump 2.0 coalition we talked about here, the big tent. And that's turned out actually to be true.
01:15:59
There's been a bunch of hand ringing from Megan, Kelly, Tucker, Carlson, right on down the line. Rubio was
01:16:04
anti-regime change, but he was largely ambivalent, according to this story about the bombing campaign. Susie Wilds,
01:16:12
chief of staff, said she had concerns about gas prices before the midterms. Pretty good uh advice there. And General
01:16:18
Dan Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said this of Netanyahu's pitch. Quote, "Sir, this is, in my
01:16:24
experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell and their plans are not always
01:16:30
well-developed. They know they need us and that's why they're hard selling. If
01:16:33
you put this together with Rubio's walked back comments at the start of the war, we knew, this is quote from Rubio,
01:16:41
we knew there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that would precipitate an attack against American forces and
01:16:49
that's why we did it. I had Josh Shapiro on the All-In interview show and um uh
01:16:56
he talked a lot about this. There is a big underpinning here, Chimath, that the United States foreign policy is being
01:17:03
driven by Netanyahu. Every Jewish American person I've talked to feels Netanyahu is not doing Jewish American
01:17:11
and Jewish the Jewish diaspora any favors here by his approach to these wars. What are your thoughts on why we
01:17:17
got into this and how we get out of it? >> I mean, the person that decides is the
01:17:24
president of the United States. some foreign leader isn't getting to call the shots in the United
01:17:31
States. I think very practically speaking, the markets are effectively pricing in that this was a small blip
01:17:42
for whatever people think. That's just what the best prediction market that we
01:17:47
have is telling us. I think that's important to acknowledge that we're probably in the endgame here. And the
01:17:53
second thing to acknowledge is if I was Israel, I would really be concerned that unless I help find an offramp
01:18:02
quickly, the risk that Israel loses America as a predictably steadfast ally could go down. And I think that that's
01:18:09
problematic for Israel >> far more than is problematic for the United States.
01:18:13
>> So all of that kind of tells me that we will find an offramp. A because I think
01:18:19
economically it makes sense and then B geopolitically I think Israel will want to make sure that this doesn't burn
01:18:26
a long-standing relationship. >> Yeah, that that seems to me to be the major issue here is Americans basically
01:18:34
do not want to be in this war. Americans do not want a forest policy being influenced to the extent they believe.
01:18:42
I'm not putting my belief in here. Americans believe we are being dragged into this by Israel and that Israel has
01:18:48
too much or Netanyahu specifically has far too much influence. And then people believe the anti-semitism that's
01:18:53
occurring here. Josh Shapiro gave me a lot of push back on this. Uh but all the Jewish Americans I talked to say
01:18:59
Netanyahu is causing with his actions in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran. Uh he's gone too
01:19:05
far and it's causing the anti-semitism we're experiencing uh today. So you can
01:19:09
make your own decisions about that. Any final thoughts here, Brad, on the American foreign policy being
01:19:16
influenced too much by Israel? >> No, it's the discussion. I >> I mean, listen, um kind of like Sax said
01:19:24
earlier, um I think that we will ultimately be judged by the outcomes, right? And that everybody is an armchair
01:19:33
pundit today on, you know, uh the the the approach that we're taking in these
01:19:39
two different places. I think we could be on the verge of a massive transformation of the Gulf States. You
01:19:46
went there with me, Jason. Saudi, Qataris, Kuwaitis, Emiratis. I've talked to a lot of them this week. I think
01:19:52
they're very hopeful and optimistic. I think you could bring Iran into the fold. But listen, I'm an optimist on all
01:19:58
of this stuff. I I just want to remind people, doing nothing in Iran had tremendous risks. Doing nothing in
01:20:07
Venezuela had tremendous risks. So, it's not as though this was uh, you know,
01:20:13
something that I I I I think wasn't well calculated, but I think we have to let
01:20:19
the cards be played and and and then let history be the judge. But I think there's uh a risk in both directions,
01:20:25
but I'm going to remain optimistic. >> All right. You uh said in the Gaza
01:20:28
situation, we should have a wide birth for criticism of Israel and Netanyahu. What are your thoughts on this belief
01:20:35
here in the United States now in this discussion that Israel is having far too much influence over the United States
01:20:40
foreign policy? Well, I noticed in my feed today that Naftali Bennett, who's a major Israeli
01:20:47
politician who was a former prime minister, tweeted polling that showed that Israel was becoming very unpopular
01:20:55
in the US and he was expressing concern about that and expressing the need to to basically address that or
01:21:03
fix that. So, I think you're starting to see Israeli politicians raising that as
01:21:08
an issue. And I think that's probably a good thing. Yeah, there it is. And it's
01:21:14
really cool actually how X now just automatically translates things from foreign languages, in this case, Hebrew,
01:21:20
and it puts it in your feed. So, yeah. So, here's Naftali Bennett, former prime
01:21:23
minister, saying, "This is a serious situation. There's a lot of work ahead
01:21:26
of us to fix everything." Now, obviously, this is not Netanyahu. this is one of his um political opponents.
01:21:33
But yeah, I mean this is something for Israel to consider and think about and I think that they would improve their
01:21:41
popularity uh if they got behind the ceasefire and I have no indication that they won't but that would certainly be a
01:21:48
good place to start. I have to say just as an aside, this auto translate feature
01:21:52
has done more for understanding across borders than anything I've ever seen.
01:21:58
And it is the most impressive tech feature I I've seen released in years. Putting AI and large language models
01:22:06
aside for people who don't know what's happening because of Grock being really
01:22:11
good at doing auto translate. They've taken the pockets of the best of what's
01:22:16
happening in Japan, what's happening in Israel, what's happening in France, and
01:22:19
they're surfacing it auto translated. Then when you reply as an American to somebody in Japan, they see it autorated
01:22:26
as well, which has led to people who don't speak the same language engaging on X in a very nuanced, fun, interesting
01:22:36
way. And that for as a truth mechanism is just absolutely extraordinary. I think this is going to have such a
01:22:42
profound effect. Maybe Elon and the X team should get like a Nobel Peace Prize award for this. I think it's going to
01:22:48
change. I mean, I hate to be hyperbolic, but have you been using this feature, Chamat? Has it been coming up in your
01:22:53
feed? And which language is up in your feed right now? >> English. Okay. So, you're not part of
01:23:01
the translation thing. Brad, has this hit your feed yet? And and which regions are you?
01:23:05
>> Definitely. Definitely see it in on the Middle East stuff. Um, and uh, you know,
01:23:10
I've seen on Chinese, I've seen it on on the Russian Japanese >> super helpful.
01:23:14
>> Let me tell you, bass Japanese is a whole another level of beast. >> Whoa. Man, base Japanese makes like
01:23:22
Fentes and Alex Jones seem tame. They're like, look at this group of people.
01:23:27
Insert whatever group of immigrants you like. And they're like, this is unacceptable behavior. This is not
01:23:32
Japanese culture. These people need to be get the hell out of Japan. It is wild, folks. And if you don't have an X
01:23:40
account, you are missing out. Go to X.com and sign up for this reason only because you think about the velocity.
01:23:47
Like journalists are not even taking the time to translate and cover what's going
01:23:50
on in those areas. And this is happening automatically in real time. >> So you start thinking about what
01:23:56
happened in Ukraine. If you had people Russia and Ukraine doing this and having conversations with each other, it would
01:24:02
be wild. >> You're like a such a good hype man. The problem is you hype buttered bread the
01:24:07
same way you hype a nuclear reactor. And so it's hard to really tell, you know,
01:24:10
what you're really hyping because your level of excitement, the intonation is
01:24:14
exactly the same. >> Yo, man, there's nothing better than a slice of great toast. I mean, if this is
01:24:18
very this in in a way, it is like sliced bread. It's very simple, but it is so
01:24:23
powerful in the experience. >> This has been >> It is true. X is better today than it's
01:24:28
ever been. And remember, they have 70% fewer employees than they had the day Elon walked into the building. And so if
01:24:35
there were ever a debate >> about this, like, and I remember everybody saying, "Oh, it's going to tip
01:24:40
over. Oh, it's going to be a crappy experience." >> The fact of the matter, here's we are a
01:24:45
few years later, 70% fewer employees, and every other company in Silicon Valley is looking at that. I think for a
01:24:51
lot of these tech companies, we've hit peak employment. We're going to create a
01:24:55
tremendous number of new jobs, but for the existing jobs, these companies are all realizing they can do more with
01:25:01
less. >> Nikita Beer just tweeted that they're about to go ham on these bot accounts
01:25:06
that auto reply. >> Yes. >> Those those literally ruined my feed. >> That's why I went to subscriber mode in
01:25:12
my replies and it's it's worked out great. >> Yeah. No, shout out to him and um to
01:25:16
Chris Saka who was in tears at what happened to Twitter. You >> It's gonna be okay, Chris. Sorry. No
01:25:23
more tears. You only let subscribers respond to your tweets. I >> I do 50/50. Sometimes I'll just let it
01:25:29
rip and get chaos. And then other times I have 2,000 paid subscribers. I give all the money to charity, like 30 grand
01:25:34
a year. And it's just wonderful to get to know the same 2,000 people out of my
01:25:38
million followers. It's kind of like having this little subset. So sometimes
01:25:41
I'm like, I don't have time to deal with a 100red or 200 or 300 replies.
01:25:45
>> You have a million. That's incredible. I mean, it's just >> I mean, you have two million. I think
01:25:50
Sax must have a million, right? You have a million, right, Sax? Only only >> Brad. How many you have now? You're
01:25:54
getting popular. >> You built a couple. >> Got a couple hund. >> What's your Oh, your alt cap altca.
01:26:01
>> I'm at 1.4 million. What are you at, Jacob? Have I surpassed you? >> I think you have. I'm like 1.1.
01:26:07
>> What it cost me to get my real name, Jason? >> Uh, I know a guy. Find out.
01:26:13
>> You're 1.1. Yeah, I made it to 1.4. I don't know how that happened exactly.
01:26:17
>> Just having the number one podcast in the world. Uh, another amazing episode
01:26:22
of the number one pop and Chimath has two million, but that's only because he
01:26:28
engages he has just incredible moments of uh engaging with his haters. Oh my god, the the the replies that Chimath
01:26:38
sometimes drops are so great. I love Chimoth goes >> I light them up. I light them up.
01:26:43
>> He lights them up. Then you had somebody who was like, "Oh my god, I was in the
01:26:47
casino and you told me to bet black, so you bet black, so I bet black and I lost
01:26:50
my money." And so you're responsible and then you paid for the kids college. He
01:26:54
has two young girls and so I I funded their college accounts. >> I thought that was hilarious. Just as
01:27:00
>> obviously I'm very happy for him and his two daughters. I'm even more happy at
01:27:04
how much it'll anger all these other goofball dorks living in their mom's
01:27:08
basement. >> Yes. >> Who'd literally have no take they take no responsibility for their lives.
01:27:14
And uh they should enjoy those Hot Pockets. By the way, for those folks in their mom's basement, the Hot Pockets
01:27:19
and the Fish Sticks are ready and you get one more hour of Xbox from mom. >> All right, listen. We missed you,
01:27:24
Freeberg, but this is the best episode in two years. Uh >> Freeird at the end of the show.
01:27:32
>> And we will see you all at the liquidity summit except for the 400 people on the
01:27:36
wait list who aren't going to get in. >> We got an email from the guys at Athena
01:27:39
because we were just >> Oh my god. the they they're they're going to hire like 500 new Athena
01:27:45
assistants. >> Yes, they had a thousand people after last week when we mentioned how much we
01:27:50
love Athena. >> Go to Athena.com. >> But that's amazing. Those are like 500
01:27:54
hardworking men and women who are like working >> in the Philippines. >> Sax have great jobs.
01:28:00
>> Sax, I'm going to get you a couple Athena assistants as a birthday present.
01:28:03
That's what I'm going to get. >> You're going to love this, Sax. H Athena
01:28:06
assistants are the best. Congratulations to my friends over there. All right, everybody. We'll see you next time. Love
01:28:11
you boys on >> tonight favorite podcast. >> Let your winners ride. >> Rain
01:28:26
and >> we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
01:28:30
>> Love you queen of winners. >> Besties are gone. That is my dog taking out your
01:28:43
driveways. >> Oh man, my appetiter will meet. >> We should all just get a room and just
01:28:50
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual
01:28:54
tension that we just need to release somehow. >> That's going to be good. We need to get
01:29:03
merch. I'm going all in.