00:00:00
great job nabal you rocked it maybe I should have said this on air but that was literally the most fun podcast I've
00:00:05
ever recorded oh that's on air cut that in yeah put it in the show put it in the
00:00:09
show I had my theory on why you were number one but now I have the realization what's the actual reason you
00:00:14
know us for a long time yeah what was your theory what's a reality my theory was that my problem with going on
00:00:19
podcast is usually the person I'm talking to is not that interesting they're just asking the same questions
00:00:24
and they're dialing it in and they're not that interested it's not like we're having a peer level actual conversation
00:00:28
so that's why I wanted to do air chat and Clubhouse and things like that cuz you can actually have a conversation I
00:00:33
see right and what you guys have very uniquely is four people you know of whom at least three are intelligent I'm
00:00:42
kidding how could you say that isn't here what SX isn't even hearing you say that that is so cold best right these
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three are intelligent and all of you get along and you can have an ongoing conversation that's a very high hit rate
00:00:58
normally in a podcast you only get one interesting person and now you've got three maybe four right okay so that to
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me was why Su and by you're talking to is number four we don't know she remain mysterious forever of the four right the
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problem is like if you get people together to talk two is a good conversation three possibly four is the
00:01:18
max that's why in a dinner table at a restaurant four top right you don't do five or six because then exp splits into
00:01:24
multiple conversations so you had four people who were capable of talking right that I thought thought was a secret but
00:01:30
there's another secret the the other secret is you guys are having fun you're talking over each other you're making
00:01:36
fun of each other you're actually having fun so that's why I'm saying this is the
00:01:40
most fun podcast I've ever been on and that's that's why you'll be welcome back anytime no all welcome back yes
00:01:48
absolutely in three smart [Music] guys I can't even believe you'd say that about sax he's not even here to defend
00:01:57
himself sorry David let your winners [Music] ride we open sources to the fans and
00:02:09
they've just gone crazy with [Music] it all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world
00:02:20
we're really excited today back again your sultant of science David freeberg what do you got going on there
00:02:28
freeberg what's in the background want I used to play I used to play a lot of a game called Sim Earth on my
00:02:35
Macintosh LC way back in the day that tracks yeah that tracks and of course with us again your chairman what games
00:02:44
did you play growing up J actually I'm kind of curious did you ever play video games let's say Andrea Allison uh Susan
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I mean it was like a lot of cute girls I was out dating girls freeberg yeah I was
00:02:59
not on my Apple tun playing civilization let me find one of those pictures of who
00:03:04
whoa don't get me in trouble Man the 80s were ' 80s were good to me in Brooklyn rejection the video
00:03:10
game yes you have three lives rejected rejected it's a numbers game chamal as you know as you well know it is a
00:03:18
numberous game yeah Nick go ahead pull up uh pull up Rico Suave here oh no what is this one instead of playing video
00:03:24
here I am no the80s that's fat that's fat J you want get Nick help out help out your unle yeah
00:03:32
here he is out slaying help out your uncle with the VIN Jak C you know what he was sling in there snack yeah you
00:03:40
pric and post asmic right correct and weightlifting beef jerky go find my Leonardo decaprio
00:03:48
picture please and replace my fat jow picture with that thank you oh God I was fat man plus 40 lbs is a lot heavier
00:03:57
than I it's no joke it's no joke 40b a lot I there's so many great emo photos of me I'm proud of you thank you my man
00:04:05
thank you my man if you want a good can you get through the intros please so we can start come on quick how you doing
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brother how you doing chairman dictator you good all right all right we're really
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excited today today for the first time on the Allin podcast the Iron Fist of Angel list the zenik mage of the early
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stage he has such a way with words he's the socer te of nerds please welcome my guy Namaste Nal how you doing the intros
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are back that is the best intro I've ever gotten I didn't think I don't I didn't think you could do that that was
00:04:44
amazing that's your super power right there lock it in quit Venture Capital just do that absolutely that's actually
00:04:50
you know what interestingly number one podcast in the world like someone said I mean that's what I'm manifesting it's
00:04:56
getting close we've been in the top 10 so I mean the weekends are good for all in this this one will hit number one
00:05:02
this one will go vir I think it could if you have some really great piffy insights we might go right to the top I
00:05:09
just got to do a seile and it'll go viral oh no oh no are you gonna send us your heart my heart goes out to you my
00:05:17
heart I I end here at the heart I don't send it out I keep it right here I put both hands on the heart and I hold it
00:05:25
nice and stady I hold it in it's sending out to you but just not explicitly all right for those of you who don't know
00:05:33
Naval was an entrepreneur uh he kicked a bit of ass he got his ass kicked and then he started Venture
00:05:40
hacks and he started emailing folks and saying you know 20 15 20 years ago maybe
00:05:46
15 here are some deals in Silicon Valley he went around he started writing 50k 100K checks he hit a bunch of home runs
00:05:53
and he turned Venture hacks into Angel list and then he has invested in a ton of great startups uh maybe give us some
00:06:01
of the greatest hits there Dev yeah Twitter Uber notion bunch of others um Postmates you to me lot of
00:06:09
unicorns buch up coming I it's actually a lot of deals at this point but honestly I'm not necessarily proud of
00:06:16
being an investor investor to me is a side job it's a hobby so I do startups how how do you define
00:06:23
yourself I don't I mean I guess these days I would say more like building things you know every
00:06:29
every so-called career is an evolution right and all of you guys are independent and you kind of do what
00:06:34
you're most interested in right that's the point of making money so you can just do what you want so these days I'm
00:06:40
really into building and crafting products so I built one recently called airchat it kind of didn't work I'm still
00:06:47
proud of what I built and got to work with an incredible team and now I'm building a new product and this time I'm
00:06:52
going into Hardware oh and I'm just building something that I really want I I'm not it all yourself Nal
00:07:00
partially I bring investors along last time they got their money back previous times they've made money next time
00:07:05
hopefully they'll make a lot of money it's good to bring your friends along I'll be honest I love that you said I
00:07:11
love the product but it didn't work not enough people say that yeah I know I I built a product that I loved that I was
00:07:17
proud of but it didn't catch fire and it was a social product so it had to catch
00:07:21
fire for it to work so I found the team great homes they all got paid the investors that I brought in got their
00:07:25
money back and I learned a ton which I'm leveraging into the new thing but the new thing is much harder the new thing
00:07:32
is hardware and software and what did you what did you learn building in 2024 and 20125 that you didn't know maybe
00:07:39
before then the main thing was actually just the craft the craft of pixel by pixel designing a software product and
00:07:46
launching it I guess the main thing I took away that was a learning was that I really enjoyed building products and
00:07:55
that I wanted to build something even harder and something even more real and I think like a lot of us I'm inspired by
00:08:02
Elon and you know all the incredible work he's done so I don't want to build things that are easy I want to build
00:08:07
things that are hard and interesting and I want to take on more technical risk and less Market risk this is the classic
00:08:13
VC learning right which is you want to build something that if people get it if you can deliver it you know people will
00:08:20
want it and it's just hard to build as opposed to you build it and you don't know if they want it so that's a
00:08:26
learning air chat was a lot of fun for those of you who don't know it was kind of like a social media Network where you
00:08:32
could ask a question and then people could respond and it was like an audio-based Twitter would you say that
00:08:38
was the the best way to describe it audio Twitter asynchronous AI transcripts and all kinds of AI to make
00:08:45
it easier for you translation really good way for kind of try to make podcasting type
00:08:52
conversations more accessible to everybody cuz honestly one of the reasons I don't go on podcast I don't
00:08:56
like being intermediated so to speak right where you sit there and someone interviews you and then you go back and
00:09:01
forth and you go through the same old things I just want to talk to people I want peer relationships kind of like you
00:09:06
guys have running here nval what happened when you went through that phase there was a period where it just
00:09:12
seemed like something had gone on in your life and you just knew the answers you were just so grounded it's not to
00:09:19
say that you're not grounded now but you're you're less active posting and writing but there was this period where
00:09:24
I think all of us were like right what does nval think oh really oh okay that's USS to be I would say it would be like
00:09:31
the late teens the early 20s Jason you can correct me if I'm getting the dates wrong but it's been that moment where
00:09:36
like these Naval isms and this sort of philosophy really started to I think people had a tremendous respect for how
00:09:43
you were thinking about things I I'm just curious like what were you going through something in that moment or like
00:09:48
oh yeah yeah yeah yeah that's right no very insightful yeah 20 so i' I've been on Twitter since 2007 cuz I was an early
00:09:55
investor but I never really tweeted I didn't get featured I had no audience I was just doing the usual techie guy
00:10:00
thing talking to each other and then I started Angelus in 2010 the original thing about matching investors to
00:10:07
startups didn't scale it was just an email list that exploded at early on but then just didn't scale so we didn't have
00:10:13
a business and I was trying to figure out the business and at the same time I got
00:10:18
a letter from the Securities and Exchange Commission saying oh you're acting as an unlic broker dealer and I'm
00:10:22
like what I'm not making any money I'm not I'm just making intros I'm not taking anything it's just a public
00:10:26
service but even then they were coming after me so I wasn't and I'd raised a bunch of money from investors so I was
00:10:32
in a very high stress period of my life now looking back it's almost comical that I was stressed over but at the time
00:10:38
it all felt very real the weight of everything was on my shoulders expectations people money regulators and
00:10:45
I eventually went to DC and got the law change to legalize what we do which ironically enabled a whole bunch of
00:10:50
other things like icos and incubator days and so on demo days but in that process I was in a very high stress
00:10:57
period of my life and I just started tweeting whatever I was going through whatever realizations I was happening
00:11:02
it's only in stress that you sort of are forced to grow and so whatever internal
00:11:06
growth I was going through I just started tweeting it not thinking much of it and it was a mix of there are three
00:11:12
things that I kind of always kind of are running through one is I love science you know I'm an amateur love physics
00:11:20
let's just leave it at that I love reading a lot of philosophy and thinking deeply about it and I like making money
00:11:28
right truth Love and Money that's my joke on my Twitter bio those are the three things that I keep coming back to
00:11:34
and so I just started tweeting about all of them and I think before that the expectation was
00:11:40
that someone like me should just be talking about money stay in your lane and people had been playing it very safe
00:11:46
and so I think the combination of the three sort of caught people's attentions because every person thinks about
00:11:52
everything we don't just stay in our Lane in real life we're dealing with our relationships we're dealing with our
00:11:57
relationship with the universe we're dealing with what we know to be true and you know with science and how we make
00:12:03
decisions and how we figure things out and we're also dealing with a practical everyday material things of how to deal
00:12:09
with our spouses or girlfriends or wives or husbands and how to make money and how to deal with our children so I'm
00:12:15
just tweeting about everything I just got interested in everything I'm tweeting about it and a lot of it my
00:12:20
best stuff was just notes to self it's like hey don't forget this how to get rich remember that one how to get rich
00:12:25
that like one theads and super Yeah Bang Yeah Yeah Yeah I think that is still the
00:12:33
most viral threat ever on Twitter I like Timeless things I I like philosophy I like things that are still apply in the
00:12:39
future I like compound interests if you will in ideas obviously recently X has become so
00:12:46
addictive that we're all checking it every day and elon's built the perfect for you he's built Tik Tok for nerds and
00:12:53
we're all on it but normally I try to ignore the news obviously last year things got real we all had to pay of
00:12:59
attention to the news but I just like to tweet Timeless things I I don't know I mean people pay attention sometimes they
00:13:05
like what I write sometimes they they go non ler on me but yeah the how to get rich sweet storm was a big one is it
00:13:11
problematic when people now meet you because the the hype versus the reality there's like it's discordant now because
00:13:18
people if they absorb this content they expect to see Somey da yeah floating in the in the air
00:13:24
you know what I mean yes yeah like many of you have stopped drinking but I used to like have the occasional glass of
00:13:30
wine and there was a moment there where I went and met with an information reporter back when I used to meet with
00:13:35
reporters and she said where are we going to meet so I said oh let's meet at the the wine merchant and we'll get a
00:13:41
glass she's like what you drink like it was like a big deal for I'm so disappointed I was like I'm an
00:13:48
entrepreneur most of them are alcoholics or and psychedelics or yeah for sure takes to
00:13:54
man hot tub yeah right yeah when they say I'm on therapy you know what that that's code for um so yes it is highly
00:14:03
Discord medine yeah I'm I'm almost reminded of that line in The Matrix where that agent is about to like shoot
00:14:09
one of the Matrix characters and says only human right so that's kind I want to say to everybody like only human yeah
00:14:16
yeah yeah you did a recently a podcast with Tim Ferris on parenting this was out there I love this and I bought the
00:14:24
book from this guy yeah just give a a brief overview of this philosophy of parenting oh I didn't listen to this I
00:14:31
have to write this down tell us this you're going to love this I this spoke to me but it was a little crazy yeah so
00:14:37
I'm a big fan of David Deutsch David deuts I think is basically the smartest living human he's a scientist who yeah
00:14:44
Quantum computation and he's written a couple of great books but it's about the intersection of the greatest theories
00:14:50
that we have today the theories with the most reach and those are epistemology the theory of knowledge Evolution
00:14:56
quantum physics and computation this is the beginning of infinity guy that's theity is always reference correct yes
00:15:04
the fabric of reality is another book I've spent a fair bit of time with him done some podcasts with him hired and
00:15:09
worked with people around him and I'm just really impressed because it's like the the framework that's made me smarter
00:15:14
I feel like because we're all fighting aging our brains are getting slower and we're always trying to have better ideas
00:15:20
so as you age you should have wisdom that's your substitute for the raw horsepower of intelligence going down
00:15:25
and so scientific wisdom I take from David not take but you know I learned from David and one of the things that he
00:15:32
pioneered is called taking children seriously and it's this idea that you should take your children seriously like
00:15:37
adults you should always give them the same Freedom that you would give an adult if you wouldn't speak that way
00:15:42
with your spouse if you wouldn't force your spouse to do something don't force a child to do something and it's only
00:15:48
through the latent threat of physical violence hey I can control you I can make you go to your room I can take your
00:15:55
dinner away or whatever that you intimidate children and it resonated with me because I grew up very very free
00:16:03
my father wasn't around when I was young my mother didn't have the bandwidth to watch us all the time she had other
00:16:09
things to do and so I kind of was making my own decisions from a extremely young
00:16:13
age from the age of five nobody was telling me what to do and from the age of nine I was telling everybody what to
00:16:18
do so I'm used to that and I've been homeschooling my own kids so the philosophy resonated and I found this
00:16:25
guy Aaron stuple on air chat and he was an incredible Expositor of the philosophy he lives his life with it 99%
00:16:32
as Extreme as one can go so his kids can eat all the ice cream they want and all
00:16:36
the Snickers bars they want they can play on the iPad all they want they don't have to go to school if they don't
00:16:40
feel like it they dress how they want they don't have to do anything they don't want to do everything is a
00:16:44
discussion negotiation explanation just like you would with a roommate or an adult living in your house and it's kind
00:16:51
of insane and extreme but I live my own home life in that Arc in that direction and I'm a very free person I don't have
00:17:00
an office to go to I try really not to maintain a calendar if I can't remember it I don't want to do it I don't send my
00:17:07
kids to school I really try not to coers them and so obviously that's an extreme
00:17:11
model but I was sorry sorry sorry hold on a second so yeah your kids if they if they were like I want hog and and it's
00:17:21
900 p.m. you're like okay two nights ago I did this I ordered the hog andas it wasn't hog andas it was a different
00:17:28
brand I ordered it I'm just going to go through a couple of examples in we do ice cream at 9:00 p.m.
00:17:32
and we all ate so they're like Dad I want and they're happy they're happy kids I want to be on my iPad I'm playing
00:17:38
fortnite leave me alone I'll go to sleep when I want you're like okay my oldest probably plays iPad nine hours a day
00:17:45
okay so then your other kid pees in their pants because they're too lazy to walk to the bathroom they don't do that
00:17:51
because they don't like peeing their pants no I understand but I'm just saying like there's a spectrum of all of
00:17:55
these things right yeah and your point of view is 100% of it is allowed and you have no judgments no no that's not where
00:18:02
I am that's where that's where Aaron is my rules are a little different my rules
00:18:06
are they got to do one hour of math or programming plus two hours of reading every single day and the moment they've
00:18:14
done that they're free creatures and everything else is a negotiation we have to persuade them it's a persuasion I
00:18:20
should say not even a negotiation and even the hour of math and 2 hours of reading really you get 15 to 30 minutes
00:18:26
of math maybe an hour if you're lucky and you get half an hour to two hours of reading if and what do you think the
00:18:31
long-term consequences of that are and then also what is the long-term consequences let's say on health if
00:18:38
they're making decisions you know are just not good like the ice cream thing at 9:00 p.m. how do you how do you
00:18:43
manage that in your mind I think whatever age you're at whatever part you're at in life you're still always
00:18:50
struggling with your own habits I think all of us for example still eat food and
00:18:54
feel guilty or want to eat something that we shouldn't be eating and we're still always evolving our diets and kids
00:18:58
are the same so my oldest is already he passed on the ice cream last time and he
00:19:03
said I want to eat healthier because finally I managed to get through to him and persuade him that he should be
00:19:07
healthier my younger kids will eat it but they'll eat a limited amount my middle kid will sometimes eat some so if
00:19:14
they say something you'll enable it but then you'll guide you'll be like Hey listen like this is not the choice I
00:19:19
would make I don't think but if you want it I do it yeah I'll try it but you also
00:19:23
have to be careful where you don't want to intimidate them and you don't want to
00:19:25
be so overbearing that then they just view dad is like controll it I find this so fasc and so what do you think happens
00:19:32
to these kids at the like I'm sure you have a vision of what they'll be like when they're fully formed adults like
00:19:37
what is that Vision I I try not to they're going to be who they're going to be I this is kind of how I grew up I
00:19:43
kind of did what I wanted I I would ra I would rather they have agency than turn out exactly the way I
00:19:52
want cuz agency is the hardest thing right having control over your own life making your own decisions them to be
00:19:59
happy I have a very happy household what is the Plato what's Plato's goal udonia
00:20:04
right like udonia yeah the happy arist like the the Fulfillment this Con is that what you want for
00:20:10
them I don't really want anything for them I just want them to be free and their best selves God I
00:20:19
want shamat is worrying about details he's got like 17 kids now I don't know if you know but shamat has got like a
00:20:26
whole punch list of things but I love this interview because the guy made a really interesting point which was
00:20:32
they're going to have to make these decisions at some point they're going to have to learn the pros and cons the the
00:20:39
the upside the downside to all these things eating iPad and the quicker you get them to have agency to make these
00:20:45
decisions for themselves with knowledge to ask questions the more secure they'll
00:20:50
be I found it a fascinating discussion I like cause and effect especially in teenagers now that I have a teenager
00:20:56
it's really good for them to learn hey you know if you don't do your homework you you have a problem and then you got
00:21:03
to solve that problem how are we going to solve that problem so I like to present it as what's your plan anytime
00:21:07
they have a problem 8-year-old kids 15year old kids I just say what's your plan to solve this and then I like to
00:21:13
hear their plan and let me know if you want to brainstorm it but I thought it was a very interesting super interesting
00:21:19
discussion I I would say overall my kids are very happy the household is very happy everybody gets along everybody
00:21:26
loves each other yeah some of them are way ahead of their peers nobody's behind in anything that
00:21:33
matters nobody seems unhealthy in any obvious way no one has aberant eating habits I haven't even found an really an
00:21:40
aberrate Behavior that's out of line so it's all good self correct me it's like a i wor I worry a lot about this like
00:21:47
iPad situation I see my kids on an iPad and it's almost like unless they're doing an
00:21:54
interactive project if they end up watching says says the guy who has a video game theme in the background that
00:22:00
was interactive who probably and who probably grew up playing video games nonstop and probably spends 9 hours a
00:22:06
day on his screen just called a phone so yeah yeah it's the same thing man well I
00:22:11
mean I feel like watch is it but do they watch shows no there a h there there's a
00:22:16
hypocrisy to picking up your phone and then saying to your kid no you can't use your iPad I grew up playing video games
00:22:21
non-stop in video games when I was older and I was an avid gamer until just a few
00:22:25
years ago well I'm not I'm not critic izing the the iPad I was obviously on a computer since I was four years old so I
00:22:32
totally get it and I think the question for me is like but I didn't have the ability to play a 30 minute show and
00:22:40
then play the next 30 minute show and the next 30 minute show and then sit there for two hours and just have a show
00:22:45
playing the whole time I was you know interacting on the computer and doing stuff and building stuff which was a
00:22:51
little different me from a use case perspective yeah we we we did use to control their YouTube access although
00:22:57
now we don't do that the only thing I ask them is that they put on captions when they're watching
00:23:03
YouTube so it helps their reading they learn to read fast good tip yeah I like that one I will say that one of my kids
00:23:09
is really into YouTube the other two are not like they just got over it and to the extent that they use YouTube it's
00:23:14
mostly because they're looking up videos on their favorite games they want to know how to be better at a game all
00:23:20
right let's keep moving through this docket we have David Sachs with us here so uh David give us your philosophy of
00:23:26
parenting okay next item on the docket let's go talk about some real issues show is not a parenting show a
00:23:35
parenting show I asked D what's your parenting philosophy he said oh I set up their trust four years ago so he's done
00:23:42
he's good trust is set up everything's good g r a t check you're all set guys let me know
00:23:52
how it works out all right speaking of working out we've got a vice president who isn't cuckoo for Coco Puffs and who
00:24:01
actually understands what AI is JD Vance gave a great speech I watched it myself
00:24:06
he talked about AI in Paris this was on Tuesday at the AI action Summit whatever
00:24:12
that is and he gave a 15minute banger of a speech he talked about over regulating
00:24:17
Ai and America's intention to dominate this and we happen to have with US Naval the Zar the Zar of AI so before I go
00:24:26
into all the details about the speech I don't steal your thunder sax this this uh Speech had a lot of uh verbage a lot
00:24:34
of ideas that I've heard before that maybe we've all talked about maybe tell us a little bit about how this all came
00:24:40
together and how proud you are I mean gosh having a vice president who understands AI is just it's mind-blowing
00:24:48
he could speak on a topic that's topical credibly this was an awesome moment for America I think
00:24:55
what are you implying there JC I'm implying you have workshopped it with him no or that he's smart both of those
00:25:02
things the vice president wrote the speech or at least directed all of it so the ideas came from him I'm not going to
00:25:08
take any credit whatsoever for this okay well it was on point maybe you could talk about I agree it was on point I
00:25:13
think it was a very well crafted and well- delivered speech he made four main points about the Trump administration's
00:25:20
approach to AI he's going to ensure this is point one that American AI continues
00:25:24
to be the gold standard fantastic check two he says that the administration understands that excessive regulation
00:25:31
could kill AI just as it's taking off and he did this in front of all the EU Elites who love regulation did it on
00:25:38
their home court and then he said number three AI must remain free from ideological bias as we've talked about
00:25:44
here on this program and then number four the White House he said will quote maintain a pro-worker growth path for AI
00:25:53
so that it can be a potent tool for job creation in the US so what are your thoughts on the four major bullet points
00:26:00
and and his speech here in uh Paris well I think that the vice president you knew
00:26:06
he was going to deliver an important speech as soon as he got up there and said that I'm here to talk about not AI
00:26:13
safety but AI opportunity and to understand what a bracing statement that was and really almost like a shot across
00:26:21
the bow you have to understand the history and context of these events for the last couple of years the last couple
00:26:27
of these events have been exclusively focused on AI safety the last inperson event was in the UK at Bletchley Park
00:26:34
and the whole conference was devoted to AI safety similarly the European AI regulation obviously is completely
00:26:42
preoccupied with safety and trying to regulate Away safety risks before they happen similarly you had the Biden EO
00:26:48
which was based around safety and then you have just the whole media coverage around AI which is preoccupied with all
00:26:55
the risks from AI so to have the vice president get up there and say right off the bat that there are other things to
00:27:02
talk about in respect to AI besides safety risk that actually there are huge opportunities there was a breath of
00:27:11
fresh air and like I said kind of a shot across the bow and yeah you could almost
00:27:15
see some of the eurocrats they needed their fainting couches after that eurocrats
00:27:21
trudo looks like his dog just died so I think that was just a really important statement right off the bat to the
00:27:28
context for the speech which is AI is a huge opportunity for all of us because really that point just has not been made
00:27:35
enough and it's true there are risks but when you look at the media coverage and
00:27:39
when you look at the dialogue that The Regulators have had around this they never talk about the opportunities it's
00:27:45
always just around the wrist so I think that was a very important corrective and
00:27:49
then like you said he went on to say that the United States has to win this AI race we want to be the gold standard
00:27:56
we want to dominate that was my favorite part yeah and and by the way that language about dominating Ai and and
00:28:01
winning the global race that is in president Trump's executive order from week one so this is very much
00:28:07
elaborating on the official policy of of this Administration and the vice president that went on to say that he
00:28:13
specified how we would do that right we have to win some of these key building block Technologies we want to win in
00:28:18
chips we want to win in AI models we want to win in applications he said we need to build we need to unlock energy
00:28:25
for these companies and then most of all we just need to be supportive towards them as opposed to regulating them to
00:28:30
death and he had a lot to say about the the risk of overregulation how often it's big companies that want
00:28:38
regulation he warned about regulatory capture which our friend Bill Gurley would like and he said that so basically
00:28:45
having less regulation can actually be more fair can create a More Level Playing Field for small companies as
00:28:51
well as big companies and then he he said to the Europeans that we want you to be partners with us we want to lead
00:28:57
the world we want you to be our our partners and benefit from this technology that we're going to take the
00:29:03
lead in creating but you also have to be a good partner to us and then he specifically called out the
00:29:09
overregulation that Europeans have been engaged in he mentioned the Digital Services act which has acted as like a
00:29:16
speed trap for American companies it's American companies who've been overregulation because the truth of the
00:29:25
matter is that it's American technology companies that are winning the race and so when Europe passes these owner
00:29:31
regulations they fall most of all on American companies and he's basically saying we need you to rebalance and and
00:29:39
correct this because it's not fair and it's not smart policy and it's not going to help us collectively win this AI race
00:29:45
and that kind of brings me just to to the last point is I don't think he mentioned China by name but clearly he
00:29:51
talked about adversarial countries who are using AI to control their populations to engage in censorship and
00:29:58
thought control and he basically painted a picture where it's like yeah you could
00:30:02
go work with them or you could work with us and we we have hundreds of years of shared history together we believe in
00:30:08
things like free speech hopefully and we want you to work with us but if you are
00:30:13
going to work with us then you have to cooperate and we have to create a reasonable regulatory regime Nal did you
00:30:20
see the uh Speech and your thoughts just generally on JD Vance and and having somebody like this you know representing
00:30:27
us and wanting to win American exception very surprising very impressive I thought he was polite
00:30:34
optimistic and just very forward-looking just it's what you would expect an entrepreneur or a smart investor to say
00:30:41
so I was very impressed I think the idea that America should win great I think that we should not regulate I also agree
00:30:48
with I'm not an AI Doomer I don't think AI is going to end the world that's a separate conversation but there's this
00:30:53
religion that comes along in many faces which is that oh climate change is going
00:30:57
to end the world a going to end the world asteroids going to end the world covid-19 is going to end the world and
00:31:02
it just has a way of fixating your attention right it captures everybody's attention at once so it's a very
00:31:06
seductive thing and I think in the case of AI it's really been overplayed by incentive bias you know motivated
00:31:13
reasoning by the companies were ahead and they want to pull up the ladder behind them I I think they genuinely
00:31:18
believe it I think they genuinely believe that there's safety risk but I think they're motivated to believe in
00:31:22
those safety risks and then they pass that along but it's kind of a weird position because they have to say oh
00:31:27
it's so dangerous that you shouldn't just let open source go at it and you should let just a few of us work with
00:31:33
you on it but it's not so dangerous that a private company can't own the whole thing right because if it was truly the
00:31:39
Manhattan Project if they were building nuclear weapons you wouldn't want one company to own that no Sam wman famously
00:31:45
said that AI will capture the light cone of all future value in other words like
00:31:49
all value ever created at the speed of light from here will be captured by AI so if that's true then I think open-
00:31:55
Source AI really matters and little Tech AI really matters the problem is that the nature of training these models is
00:32:02
highly centralized they benefit from supercomputer clustered compute so it's not clear how any decentralized model
00:32:09
can compete so to me the real issue boils down to is how do you push AI forward while not having just a very
00:32:16
small number of players control the entire thing and we thought we had that solution with the original open AI which
00:32:22
was a nonprofit was supposed to do for Humanity but now because of they want to incentivize the team and they want to
00:32:27
raise money they have to privatize at least a part of it although it's not clear to me why they need to privatize
00:32:32
the whole thing like why they need to buy out the nonprofit portion you could leave a nonprofit portion and you could
00:32:36
have the private portion for the incentives but I think that the the real challenge is how do you keep AI from
00:32:44
naturally centralizing because all the economics and the technology underneath are centralizing in nature if you really
00:32:51
think you're going to create God do you want to put God on a leash with one entity controlling God that to me is the
00:32:57
real fear not I'm not scared of AI I'm scared of what a very small number of people who control AI do to the rest of
00:33:04
us for our own good because that's how it always works it's well said probably should go with the Greek model having
00:33:09
many gods and uh Heroes as well freeberg you heard the uh JD van speech I assume
00:33:15
what are your thoughts on overregulation and uh maybe to nal's point one person owning this versus open source I think
00:33:24
that there's this kind of big definition of social balance right now on what I would call techno optimism and techno
00:33:32
pessimism generally people sort of fall into one of those two camps generally speaking techno
00:33:39
optimists I would say are folks that believe that accelerating outcomes with AI with automation with bioengineering
00:33:46
manufacturing semiconductors Quantum Computing nuclear energy Etc will usher in this era of abundance by making by
00:33:54
creating leverage which is what technology gives us technology will make things cheaper and
00:34:00
it will be deflationary and it will give everyone more so it creates abundance the challenge is that people who already
00:34:07
have a lot worry more about the exposure to the downside than they desire the upside and so you know the techn
00:34:15
pessimists are generally like the EU and large Parts frankly of the United States
00:34:21
are worried about the loss of X the loss of jobs the loss of this the loss of that whereas countries like China and
00:34:29
India are more excited about the opportunity to create wealth the opportunity to create leverage the
00:34:35
opportunity to create abundance for their people you know GDP per capita in in the EU $60,000 a year GDP per capita
00:34:42
in the United States like 82,000 but GDP per capita in India is 2500 and China is
00:34:48
12,600 there's a greater incentive in those countries uh to manifest upside than there is for the United States and
00:34:56
the EU who are more worried about manifesting downside and so it is a very difficult kind of social battle that's
00:35:03
underway I do think like over time those governments and those countries and those social systems that Embrace these
00:35:10
Technologies are going to become more capitalist and they're going to require less government control and intervention
00:35:17
in job creation the economy payments to people and so on and the countries that are more techn pessimistic are
00:35:23
unfortunately going to find themselves asking for greater government control govern intervention in markets
00:35:29
governments creating jobs government making payments to people government's effectively running the economy my
00:35:34
personal view obviously is that I'm a very strong advocate for technology acceleration because I think in nearly
00:35:42
every case in human history when a new technology has emerged we've largely found ourselves assuming that the
00:35:48
technology works in the framework of today or of yester year the automobile came along and no one envisioned that
00:35:55
everyone in the United States would own an automobile and therefore you would need to create all of these new
00:35:59
Industries like mechanics and car dealerships roads all the people servicing building roads and all the
00:36:06
other industry that emerg and it's it's very hard for us to sit here today and say okay AI is going to destroy jobs
00:36:13
what's it going to create and be right I think we're very likely going to be wrong whatever estimations we we give
00:36:19
the area that I think is most underestimated is large technical projects that seem technically
00:36:24
infeasible today that AI can unlock for example habitation in in the oceans like
00:36:30
it's very difficult for us to Envision like creating cities underwater and creating cities in the oceans or
00:36:35
creating cities on the moon or creating cities on mars or finding new places to live those are like technically people
00:36:40
might argue oh that sounds stupid I don't want to go do that but at the end of the day like human civilization will
00:36:45
drive us to want to do that but those technically are very hard to pull off today but AI can unlock a new set of
00:36:51
Industries to enable those transitions so I think we really get it wrong when we try and assume the technology as a
00:36:57
transplant for last year or last century and then we kind of become techn pessimists because we're worried about
00:37:02
losing what we have are you a techn pessimist are you Optimist because I you uh bring up the downside of awful lot
00:37:08
here on the program but you are working every day in a very optimistic way to breed you know better strawberries and
00:37:15
potatoes for folks so you're a little bit of a no I have no techn pessimism whatsoever I try and point out why the
00:37:21
other side is acting the way they are got it okay putting it in full context and what I'm trying to highlight is I
00:37:25
think that that framework is wrong I think that that frame transology the way operating the way
00:37:34
about and it creates this you know because of this manifestation about worrying about downside it creates this
00:37:39
fear that that creates regulation like we see in the EU and as a result China's GDP will scale while the euus will
00:37:45
stagnate if that's where they go that's my assessment or my opinion on what will
00:37:49
happen chath you want to wrap this up for us what are your thoughts on JD I'll give you two okay the first is I would
00:37:55
say this is a really interesting moment where I would call this the tale of two vice presidents very early in the
00:38:02
Biden Administration kamla was dispatched on an equally important topic at that time which was illegal
00:38:09
immigration and she went to Mexico and Guatemala and so you actually have a really interesting AB test here you have
00:38:18
both vice presidents dealing with what we're in that moment incredibly important issues and I think that JD was
00:38:26
focused he was precise he was ambitious and even the part of the press that was very supportive of kamla
00:38:37
couldn't find a lot of very positive things to say about her and the feedback was it was Meandering she was ducking
00:38:44
questions she didn't answer the questions that she was asked very well and it's so interesting because it's a
00:38:50
bit of a microcosm then to what happened over these next four years and her campaign quite honestly which you could
00:38:55
have taken that window of that feedback and unfortunately for her it just continued to be very consistent so that
00:39:02
was one observation I had because I heard him give the speech I heard her and I had this kind of moment where I
00:39:09
was like wow two totally different people the second is on the substance of what JD said I said this on Tucker and
00:39:17
I'll just simplify all of this into a very basic framework which is if you want a country to thrive it
00:39:24
needs to have economic Supremacy and it needs to have military Supremacy in the absence of those two
00:39:32
things societies crumble and the only thing that underpins those two things is technological Supremacy and we see this
00:39:40
today so on Thursday what happened with Microsoft they had a $24 billion contract with the United States Army to
00:39:48
deliver some whizbang thing and they realized that they couldn't deliver it and so what did they do they went to
00:39:56
andril now why did they go to andril because andril has the technological Supremacy to actually execute a few
00:40:03
weeks ago we saw some attempts at technological Supremacy from the Chinese with respect to deep seek so I think
00:40:09
that this is a very simple existential battle those who can harness and govern the things that are
00:40:17
technologically Superior will win and it will drive economic vibrancy and Military Supremacy which then
00:40:26
creates safe strong societies that's it so from that perspective JD nailed it he
00:40:33
saw the forest from the trees he said exactly what I think needed to be said and put folks on notice that you're
00:40:39
either on the ship or you're off the ship and I think that that was really good yeah and there was like um a little
00:40:46
secondary conversation that emerged Sachs that I I would love to engage you with if you're willing which is this
00:40:54
Civil War quote unquote between maybe Maga 1.0 magga 2.0 techies ver in the Maga party like
00:41:02
ourselves and maybe the core Maga folks we can pull up the Tweet here in JD's own word and he's been engaging people
00:41:12
in his own words it's very clear that he's writing these tweets a distinct difference between other politicians and
00:41:18
this Administration and they just tell you what they think here it is I'll try and write something to address this in
00:41:25
detail this is JD Vance's tweet but I think this Civil War is overstated though yes there are some real
00:41:31
divergences between the populace I would describe that as magga and the techies but briefly in general I dislike
00:41:37
substituting American labor for cheap labor my views on immigration and offshoring flow from this I like growth
00:41:43
and productivity gains and this informs my view on Tech and regulation when it comes to AI specifically the risks are
00:41:51
number one overstate to your point Nal or two difficult to avoid one of my any real concerns for instance is about
00:41:59
Consumer Fraud that's a valid reason to worry about safety but the other problem
00:42:04
is much worse if a pure nation is 6 months ahead of the US on AI again I'll try and say more and this is JD going
00:42:11
right at I think one of the more controversial topic sacks that the administration is dealing
00:42:18
with and has dealt with when it comes to immigration and Tech because these two things are dovetailing each other if we
00:42:24
lose millions of driver jobs which we will in the next 10 years just like we lost millions of cashier jobs well
00:42:32
that's going to impact how our nation and many of the voters look at the border and immigration we might not be
00:42:39
able to let as many people immigrate here if we're losing millions of jobs to Ai and self-driving cars what are your
00:42:46
thoughts on him engaging this directly saxs well the first point he's making there is about wage pressure right which
00:42:53
is when you throw open our Borders or you throw open American markets products that can be made in foreign countries by
00:43:00
much cheaper labor that's not held to the same standards the same minimum wage or the same Union rules or the same
00:43:06
safety standards that American labor is and has a huge cost Advantage then you're creating wage pressure for
00:43:11
American workers and he's opposed to that and I think that is an important point because I think the way that the
00:43:17
media or neoliberals like to portray this argument is that somehow mag's resistance to unlimited immigration is
00:43:25
somehow based on xenophobia or something like like that no it's based on bread and butter kitchen table issues which is
00:43:32
if you have this ridiculous open border policy it's inevitably going to create a
00:43:37
lot of wage pressure for people at the bottom of the pyramid so I think JD is making that argument but and this is
00:43:44
point two he's saying I'm not against productivity growth so technology is good because it enables all of our
00:43:50
workers to improve their productivity and that should result in better wages because workers can produce more the
00:43:57
value of their labor goes up if they have more tools to be productive so there's no contradiction there and I
00:44:02
think he's explaining why there isn't a contradiction a point I would add he doesn't make this point in that tweet
00:44:08
but I would add is that one of the problems that we've had over the last I don't know 30 years is that we have had
00:44:15
tremendous productivity growth in the US but labor has not been able to capture it all that benefit has basically gone
00:44:20
to Capital or to companies and I think a big part of the reason why is because we've had this largely unrestricted
00:44:27
immigration policy so I think if you were to Tamp down on immigration if you were to stop the illegal immigration
00:44:34
then labor might be able to capture more of the benefits of productivity growth and that would be a good thing it' be a
00:44:39
more equitable distribution of the gains from productivity and from technology and that I think would help Tamp down
00:44:50
this growing conflict that you see between technologists and the rest of the country or certainly the heartland
00:44:56
of the country nval this is a okay you want to add anything else David sorry well I think just the final point he
00:45:02
makes in that tweet is that he talks about how we live in a world in which there are other countries that are
00:45:07
competitive and specifically he he doesn't mention China but he says we have a pure competitor and it's going to
00:45:13
be a much worse world if they end up being six months ahead of us on AI rather than six months behind that is a
00:45:19
really important point to keep in mind I think that the whole Paris AI Summit took place against the backdrop of this
00:45:26
recognition because just a few weeks ago we had deep seek and it's really clear that China is not a year behind us
00:45:32
they're hot on our heels or only maybe months behind us and so if we hobble ourselves with unnecessary regulations
00:45:39
if we make it more difficult for our AI companies to compete that doesn't mean that China's going to follow suit and
00:45:45
copy us they're going to take advantage of that fact and they're going to win all right nval this seems to be one of
00:45:49
the main issues of our time four of the five people on this podcast right now are immigrants so we have this amazing
00:45:57
in America this is a country built by immigrants for immigrants do you think that should change now in the face of
00:46:04
job destruction which I know you've been tracking self-driving pretty acutely we
00:46:10
both have an interest there I think over the years you know what's the solution here if we're going to see a bunch of
00:46:19
job displacement which will happen for certain jobs we all we all kind of know that should we shut the border and not
00:46:25
let the next Nal chamat Max and freedberg into the country well let me let me declare my biases up front I'm a
00:46:30
first generation immigrant I moved here when I was 9 years old rather my parents
00:46:34
did and then I naturalized citizen so obviously I'm in favor of some level of immigration that said I'm
00:46:40
assimilated I consider myself an American first and foremost I bleed red white and blue I
00:46:47
believe in the Bill of Rights and the Constitution first and second and fourth and all the proper amendments I get up
00:46:55
there every July 4th and I deliberately defend the Second Amendment on Twitter at which point half my followers Go
00:47:01
Bananas you know cuz you're because I'm not supposed to I'm supposed to be a good immigrant right and and carry the
00:47:06
usual set of coherent leftist policies globalist policies so I think that legal High skill immigration with room and
00:47:17
time for assimilation makes sense you want to have a brain drain on the best and brightest coming to the freest
00:47:22
country in the world to build technology and to help civilization move forward and you know as chth was saying economic
00:47:32
power and military power is Downstream of technology in fact even culture is Downstream of Technology look at what
00:47:39
the birth control pill did for example to culture or what the automobile did to culture or what radio and television did
00:47:44
to culture and then the internet so technology drives everything and if you look at wealth wealth is a set of
00:47:50
physical Transformations that you can affect and that's a combination of capital and knowledge and the bigger
00:47:55
input to that is knowledge and so the US has become the home of knowledge creation thanks to bringing in the best
00:48:01
and brightest you could even argue deep Seek part of the reason why we lost that
00:48:04
is because a bunch of those kids they studied in the US but then we sent them back home right so I think you
00:48:09
absolutely is that actually accurate that they were uh yeah yeah yeah some a few of them really oh my God that's like
00:48:15
exhibit a wow I didn't know that so I think you absolutely have to split skilled assimilated immigration which is
00:48:23
a small set and it has to be both they have to both be skilled and they have to become Americans that oath is not
00:48:28
meaningless right it has to mean something so skilled assimilated immigration you have to separate that
00:48:33
from just open borders whoever can wander in just come on in that that latter part makes no sense if the Biden
00:48:39
administration had only been letting in people with 150 IQs we wouldn't have this debate right now the reason why
00:48:45
we're having this debate is because they just opened the border and let millions
00:48:49
and millions of people in it was to their advantage to conflate legal and illegal immigration so every time You'
00:48:55
be like well we can't just open the Border say what about Elon what about this and they would just parade if they
00:49:00
were just letting Elon and the Jensen and freed bgs we wouldn't be having the same conversation today the correlation
00:49:08
between open borders and wage suppression is irrefutable we know that data and I think that the
00:49:16
Democrats for whatever logic committed an incredible error in basically undermining their core cohort
00:49:25
I want to go back to what you said because I think it's super important there is a new political calculus on the
00:49:32
field and I agree with you I think that the the three cohorts of the future are the asset light working in middle class
00:49:42
that's cohort number one there are probably 100 to 150 million of those folks then there are patriotic business
00:49:51
owners and then there's leaders in Innovation those are the three and I think that what Maga gets right is they
00:50:00
found the middle ground that intersects those three cohorts of people and so every time you see this sort of left
00:50:07
versus right dichotomy it's totally miscast and it sounds discordant to so many of us because that's not how any of
00:50:13
us identify right and I think that that's a very important observation because the policies that we adapt will
00:50:19
need to reflect those three cohorts what is the common ground amongst those three
00:50:24
and on that point nval is right there's not lot that those three would say is wrong with a very targeted form of
00:50:31
extremely useful legal immigration of very very very smart people who agree to assimilate and be a part of America I
00:50:39
mean I'm so glad you said it the way you said it like I remember growing up where
00:50:44
my parents would try to pretend that they were in Sri Lanka and sometimes I would get so frustrated I'm like if you
00:50:49
want to be in Sri Lanka go back to Sri Lanka I want to be Canadian because it was easier for me to make friends it was
00:50:58
easier for me to have a life I was trying my best I wanted to be Canadian and then when I moved to the United
00:51:03
States 25 years ago I wanted to be American and I feel that I'm American now and I'm proud to be an American and
00:51:11
I think that's what you want you want people that embrace it doesn't mean that we can't dress up in a show AR CES every
00:51:16
now and then but the point is like what do you believe and where is your loyalty
00:51:22
freeberg we used to have this concept of in a Melting Pot of this assimilation and that was a good thing then it became
00:51:29
cultural appropriation we we kind of made a right turn here where where do you stand on this recruiting the best
00:51:35
and brightest and forcing them to assimilate making sure that they're down Jason find the people that care to be
00:51:42
here yeah let me res that uh I reject the premise this whole conversation wait wait hold on look I'm
00:51:50
look I'm a first generation American who moved here when I was five and became a
00:51:55
citizen when I was 10 and yes I'm fully American and that's the only country I have any loyalty to but I the the
00:52:01
premise that I reject here is that somehow an AI conversation leads to an immigration conversation because
00:52:08
millions of jobs are going to be lost we don't know that that's also true I agree
00:52:11
you're making a huge assumption buying into the dorismond of jobs that is not those are
00:52:18
fact not evidence I think any jobs have any jobs been lost by AI let's be real we've had AI for two and a half years
00:52:25
and I think it's great but so far it's a better search engine and it helps high school kids cheat on their essays I mean
00:52:32
you don't believe that self driving is coming hold on a second Sach you don't believe that Millions but but hold on
00:52:39
those those driver jobs weren't even there 10 years ago Uber came along and created all these driver jobs door Dash
00:52:44
created all these driver jobs so what technology does yes technology destroys jobs but it replaces them with
00:52:50
opportunities that are even better and then either you can go capture that opportunity yourself or an entrepreneur
00:52:56
will come along and create something that allows you to capture those opportunities AI is a productivity tool
00:53:02
it increases the productivity of a worker it allows and do more creative work and less repetitive work as such it
00:53:07
makes them more valuable yes there is some retraining involved but not a lot these are natural language computers you
00:53:12
can talk to them in plain English and they talk back to you in plain English but I think David is absolutely right I
00:53:17
think we will see job creation by AI that will be as fast or faster than job destruction you saw this even with the
00:53:24
internet like YouTube came along look at all these YouTube streamers and influencers that didn't used to be a job
00:53:29
new jobs really opportunities cuz job is a wrong word job implies someone else has to give it to me and sort of like
00:53:35
their handed out it's a zero some game forget all that it's opportunities after covid look at how many people are making
00:53:43
money by working from home in mysterious little ways on the internet that you can't even quite grasp here's the way I
00:53:50
categorize it okay is that whenever you have a new technology you get productivity gains you get some job
00:53:56
disruption meaning that part of your job may go away but then you get other parts
00:54:00
that are new and hopefully more elevated you know more interesting and then there
00:54:05
is some job loss I just think that the third category will follow the historical Trend which is that the first
00:54:11
two categories are always bigger and you end up with more net productivity and more net wealth creation and we've seen
00:54:18
no evidence to date that that's not going to be the case now it's true that AI is about to get more powerful you're
00:54:22
going to see a whole new wave of what are called agents this year a agentic products are able to do more for you but
00:54:29
there's no evidence yet that those things are going to be completely unsupervised and replace people's jobs
00:54:34
so you know I think that we have to see how this technology evolves and I think one of the mistakes of let's call it the
00:54:41
European approach is assuming that you can predict the future with perfect accuracy with such good accuracy that
00:54:48
you can create regulations today that are going to avoid all these risks in the future and we just don't know enough
00:54:54
yet to be able to do that that's level of certainty I agree with you and the companies that are promulgating that
00:55:02
view is what nval said those that have an economic vested interest in at least convincing the next incremental investor
00:55:09
that this could be true because they want to make the claim that all the money should go to them so they could
00:55:13
Hoover up all the economic gains and that's that is the part of the cycle we're in so if you if you actually
00:55:19
stratify these reactions there's the small startup companies in AI that believe there's a productivity leap to
00:55:25
be had and that there's going to be Prosperity everybody on the sidelines watching and then a few companies that
00:55:32
have an extremely vested interest in them being a gatekeeper because they need to raise the next 30 or $40 billion
00:55:38
doar trying to convince people that that's true and if you view it through that lens you're right saxs we have not
00:55:43
accomplished anything yet that proves that this is going to be cataclysmically bad and if anything right now history
00:55:49
would tell you it's probably going to be like the past which is generally productive and a cre Society yeah and
00:55:55
just to bring it back back to JD's speech which is where we started I think it was a quintessentially American
00:56:02
speech in the sense that he said we should be optimistic about the opportunities here which I think is
00:56:08
basically right and we want to lead we want to take advantage of this we don't want to hobble it we don't even fully
00:56:16
know what it's going to be yet we are going to Center workers we want to be Pro worker and I think that if there are
00:56:24
downsides for workers then we can mitigate those things in the future but it's too early to say that we know what
00:56:29
the program should be it's more about a statement of values at this point do you
00:56:33
think it's too early freeberg given optimists and all these robots being created what we're seeing in
00:56:40
self-driving you've talked about the ramp up with wh to actually say we will not see
00:56:46
millions of jobs and millions of people get displaced from those jobs what do you
00:56:51
think freeberg I'm curious your thoughts because that is the counterargument my experience erence in
00:56:56
the workplace is that AI tools that are doing things that an analyst or knowledge worker was doing
00:57:05
with many hours in the past is allowing them to do something in minutes that doesn't mean that they spend the rest of
00:57:11
the day doing nothing what's great for our business and for other businesses like ours that can leverage AI tools is
00:57:19
that those individuals can now do more and so our throughput our productivity as an organization has gone up and we
00:57:26
can now create more things faster so whatever the product is that my company makes we can now make more things more
00:57:32
quickly we can do more development you're seeing it on the ground correct at a hollow and I'm seeing it on the
00:57:37
ground and I don't think that this like transplantation of how bad AI will be for jobs is the right framing as much as
00:57:45
it is about an acceleration of productivity and this is why I go back to the point about GDP per capita and
00:57:50
GDP growth countries societies areas that are interested or industries that are interested in accelerating output in
00:57:58
accelerating productivity the ability to make stuff and sell stuff are going to rapidly Embrace these tools because it
00:58:04
allows them to do more with less and I think that's what I really see on the ground and then the second point I'll
00:58:10
make is the one that I mentioned earlier and I'll wrap up with a third point which is I think we're underestimating
00:58:15
the new industries that will emerge drastically dramatically there is going to be so much new sh that we are not
00:58:21
really thinking deeply about right now that we could do a whole another 2hour brainstorming session on on what AI
00:58:28
unlocks in terms of large scale projects that are traditionally or typically are
00:58:34
today held back because of the constraints on the technical feasibility of these projects and that ranges from
00:58:41
accelerating to new semiconductor technology to Quantum Computing to Energy Systems to transportation to
00:58:48
habitation etc etc there's all sorts of transformations in every industry that's
00:58:52
possible as these tools come online and that will spurn insane new Industries the most important point is the third
00:58:58
one which is we don't know the overlap of job loss and job creation if there is one and so the rate at which these new
00:59:05
technologies impact and great new markets but I think nval is right I think that what happens in capitalism
00:59:10
and in free societies is that capital and people rush to fill the hole of new opportunities that emerge because of AI
00:59:18
and that those grow more quickly than the old bubbles deflate so if there's a deflationary effect in terms of job need
00:59:24
in other Industries I think the loss will happen slower then the rush to take advantage of creating new things will
00:59:30
happen on the other side so my bet is probably on the order of I think new things will be created faster than old
00:59:36
things will be lost I think actually as a quick side note to that the fastest way to help somebody get a job right now
00:59:43
if you know somebody in the market who's looking for a job the best thing you can
00:59:47
do is say hey go download the AI tools and just start talking to them just start using them in any way and then you
00:59:52
can walk into any employer in almost any field and say hey I understand Ai and they'll hire you on the exactly nval you
00:59:59
and I watched this happen we had a front row seat to it back in the day when you
01:00:05
were doing Venture hacks and I was doing open Angel Forum we had to like fight to
01:00:09
find five or 10 companies a month then the cost of running these companies went down they went down massively from five
01:00:15
million to start a company to two then to 250k then to 100K I think what we're seeing is like three things concurrently
01:00:23
you're going to see all these jobs go away for automation self-driving cars cashier Etc but we're going to also see
01:00:30
static team size at places like Google they're just not hiring because they're just having the existing bloated
01:00:34
employee base learn the tools but I don't know if you're seeing this the number of startups able to get a product
01:00:41
to Market with two or three people and get to a million in revenue is booming what are you seeing in the startup
01:00:47
landscape definitely what you're saying in that there's leverage but at the same
01:00:51
time the I think the more interesting part is that new startups are enabled that could not exist otherwise uh my
01:00:58
last startup air chat could not have existed without AI because we needed a transcription and translation even the
01:01:03
current thing I'm working on it's not an AI company but it cannot exist without AI it is relying on AI even at angelist
01:01:09
we're significantly adopting AI like everywhere you turn it's more opportunity more opportunity more
01:01:14
opportunity and people like to go on uh Twitter or the artist formerly known as Twitter and and and basically they like
01:01:22
to exaggerate like oh my God we've hit AGI oh my my God I just replaced my all my mid-level Engineers oh my god I've
01:01:28
stopped hiring to me that's like moronic the two valid ones are the onean entrepreneur shows where there's like
01:01:35
one guy or one gal and they're like scaling up like crazy things to AI or there are people who are embracing Ai
01:01:41
and being like I need to hire and I need to hire anyone who can even spell AI like anyone who's even used AI just come
01:01:47
on in come on in again I would say the easiest way to see that AI is not taking jobs of creating opportunities is go
01:01:54
brush up on your learn a little bit watch a few videos use the AI Tinker with it and then go reapply for that job
01:02:01
that rejected you and watch how they pull you in in 2023 an economist named Richard Baldwin said AI won't take your
01:02:07
job it's someone using AI that will take your job because they know how to use it
01:02:11
better than you and that's kind of become a meme and you see it floating around X but I think there's a lot of
01:02:16
Truth in that you know as long as you remain adaptive and you keep learning and you learn how to take advantage of
01:02:22
these tools you should do better and if you wall yourself off from the technology and don't take advantage of
01:02:28
it that's when you put yourself at risk another way to think about it is these are natural language computers so
01:02:33
everyone who's intimidated by computers before should no longer be intimidated you don't need to program anymore in
01:02:39
some esoteric language or learn some obscure mathematics to be able to use these you can just talk to them and they
01:02:44
talk back to you that's magic the new programming language is English chath you want to wrap us up here on this
01:02:50
opportunity slash displacement slash chaos I was gonna say this before but I I'm pretty unconvinced anymore that
01:03:00
you should bother even learning many of the hard sciences and maths that we used
01:03:07
to as underpinnings like I used to believe that the right thing to do was for everybody to go into
01:03:12
engineering I'm not necessarily as convinced as I used to be because I used to say well that's great first
01:03:18
principles thinking etc etc and you're going to get trained in a toolkit that will scale and I'm not sure that that's
01:03:24
true I think like you can you can use these agents and you can use deep research and all of a sudden they
01:03:30
replace a lot of that skill so what's left over it's creativity it's judgment it's history it's psychology it's all of
01:03:37
these other sort of like softare leadership communication that allow you to manipulate these models in
01:03:42
constructive ways because when you think of like the prompt engineering that gets
01:03:45
you to Great answers it's actually just thinking in totally different orthogonal
01:03:49
ways and nonlinearly so that's my last thought which is it does open up the aperture
01:03:54
meaning for every smart mathematical genius there's many many many other people who have high EQ and all of a
01:04:02
sudden this tool actually takes the skill away from the person with just a high IQ and says if you have these other
01:04:09
skills now you can compete with me equally and I think that that's liberating for a lot of people I'm in
01:04:15
the camp of more opportunity you know I I got to watch the movie industry a whole bunch when the digital cameras
01:04:21
came out and more people started making documentaries more people started making
01:04:25
independent film shorts and then of course the Youtube Revolution people started making videos on YouTube or
01:04:31
podcasts like this and if you look at what happened with like the special effects industry as well we need far
01:04:38
fewer people to make a Star Wars movie to make a Star Wars series to make a Marvel series as we've seen now we can
01:04:45
get the Mandalorian and shoka and all these other series with smaller numbers of people and they look better than
01:04:52
obviously the original Star Wars series or even the prequels so there's there's going to be so many more opportunities
01:04:57
we're now making more TV shows more series everything we wanted to see of every little character that's the same
01:05:03
thing that's happening in startups I can't believe that there is a app now nval called slopes just for uh skiing
01:05:11
and there are 20 really good apps for just meditation and there are 10 really good ones just for fasting like we're
01:05:18
going down this long taale of opportunity and there'll be plenty of million to10 million businesses for us
01:05:25
you know people learn to use these tools I love how that's the thing that tips you over which
01:05:32
one you get an extra Marvel movie or an extra Star Wars show so that tips you over I think for a lot of people it's it
01:05:40
feels great that AI may take over the world but I'm gonna get next to Star Wars movie so I'm I'm cool yeah I mean
01:05:46
it's are you not entertained want to final point on this is look I mean given the choice between the two categories of
01:05:52
techno Optimist and techn pessimist I'm definitely in The Optimist camp and I I think and I think we should be but I I
01:05:57
think there's actually a third category that I would submit which is techno realist which is technology is going to
01:06:06
happen trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop if we don't do it somebody else will China's going
01:06:12
to do it or somebody else will do it and it's better for us to be in control of the technology to be the leader rather
01:06:19
than passively waiting for it to happen to us and I just think that's always true it's better for businesses to be
01:06:27
proactive and take the lead disrupt themselves instead of waiting for someone else to do it and I think it's
01:06:31
better for countries and I think you did see this theme a little bit I mean these
01:06:35
are my own views I don't want to ascribe them to the vice president but you did see I think a hint of the Techno realism
01:06:43
idea in his speech and in his tweet which is look AI is going to happen we might as well be the leader if we don't
01:06:51
we could lose in a key category that has implications for National Security for our economy for many things so that's
01:06:59
just not a world we want to live in so I think a lot of this debate is sort of academic because whether you're an
01:07:06
optimist or pessimist is sort of glass half empty half full the question is just is it going to happen or not and I
01:07:12
think the answer is yes so then we want to control it this just you know let's just boil it down there's not a
01:07:17
tremendous amount of choice in this I think I would agree heavily with one point and I would just tweak another the
01:07:23
point I would agree with is that it's going to happen anyway and that's what deep seek proved you can turn off the
01:07:28
flow of chips to them and you can turn off the flow of talent what do they do they just get more efficient and they
01:07:33
exported it back to us they sent us back the best open source model when our guys
01:07:37
were staying closed source for safety reasons and exactly and I deep explo safety of their Equity deep seek
01:07:45
exploded the fallacy that the US has a monopoly in this category and that somehow therefore we can slow down the
01:07:52
train and that we have total control over the train and I think what deep seek showed is no if we slow down the
01:07:57
train they're just going to win yeah the part the part where I TR to tweak a little bit is the idea that we are going
01:08:03
to win by we when you say America the problem is that the best way to win is to be as open as distributed as
01:08:10
Innovative as possible if this all ends up in the control of one company they're
01:08:14
actually going to be slower to innovate than if there's a dynamic system and that dynamic system by its nature will
01:08:19
be open it will leak to China it will leak to India but these things have powerful Network effects we know this
01:08:25
about technology almost all Technologies has Network effects underneath and so even if you are open you're still going
01:08:32
to win and you're still going to control you look at the internet that was all true for the internet right the
01:08:36
internet's an open Technologies based on tons of Open Source Who are the Dom companies all the dominant companies are
01:08:42
us companies because they were in the lead exactly right exactly right we we embrac the open internet we embrac the
01:08:47
open internet right that was different yeah so there will be benefits for all of humanity and I think the vice
01:08:51
president's speech was really clear that look we want you guys to be on board we
01:08:54
want to be good Partners however there are definitely going to be winners economically
01:09:00
militarily and in order to be one of those winners you have to be a leader who's going to get to AGI first nval is
01:09:06
it going to be an open source who's going to win is it going to be open source or closed Source who's going to
01:09:11
win the day if we're sitting here 5 10 years from now and we're looking at the top three language models lot of trouble
01:09:17
for this but I don't think we know how to build AGI but that's that's a much longer discuss who's going to have the
01:09:22
best model five years from hold on I I 100% agree with you I just think it's a different thing but what we're building
01:09:27
are these incredible natural language computers and actually David in a very pithy way summarized the two big use
01:09:33
cases it's search and it's homework it's paperwork uh it's it's really paperwork
01:09:38
and a lot of these jobs that we're talking about disappearing are actually paperwork jobs they're paperwork
01:09:43
shuffling these are madeup jobs like the federal government as we're finding out
01:09:46
through Doge you know a third of it is like people digging holes of spoons and the another third are filling them back
01:09:51
up they're filling up paperwork and then burying it in a m shaft they're buing M
01:09:54
shaft Mountain yeah so I I I think a lot of these madeup jobs they got to go down
01:09:59
the M shaft to get the paperwork when someone retires and bring it up you know what I'm going to get them some thumb
01:10:03
drives we can increase the throughput of the elevator with some thumb drives it would be incredible what we found out is
01:10:08
the the DMV has been running the government for the last 70 years it's been a compounding compounding that's
01:10:13
that's really what's going on DMV is in charge I mean if the world ends in nuclear war God for bid the only thing
01:10:19
that's be left will be the Cockroaches and then a bunch of like government work documents s report TPS reports down in
01:10:27
the M shaft basically yeah let's take a moment everybody to thank our Zar we miss him we wish he could be here
01:10:38
for the whole show and thank you Zar thank you to the Zar see you guys miss you we miss you little buddy I wish we
01:10:44
could talk about Ukraine but we're not allowed get back to work we'll talk about it another time over cfee I'll see
01:10:50
you in the comissary thanks for the invite bye man I'm so excited I'm nval saaks invited me to go to the the
01:10:58
military mess I'm going to be in the commissary no he didn't J you invited yourself be honest I did yes I did I put
01:11:04
it on his calendar to keep the conversation moving let me segue a point that came up that was really important
01:11:09
into tariffs and the point is even though the internet was open the US won a lot of the internet a lot of us
01:11:18
companies won the internet and they won that because we got there the firstest with the mostest as they say in the
01:11:23
military and that matters because a a lot of Technology businesses have scale economies and network effects underneath
01:11:30
even basic brand-based Network effects if you go back to the late 90s early 2000s very few people would have
01:11:37
predicted that we would have ended up with Amazon basically owning all of e-commerce you would have thought it
01:11:41
would have been a perfect competition and very spread out and that applies to how we end up with Uber as basically one
01:11:47
taxi service or we end up with Airbnb meta Airbnb it's just Network effects Network effects Network effects rule the
01:11:54
world around me but but when it comes to tariffs and when it comes to trade we act like Network effects don't exist the
01:12:00
classic ricardian comparative advantage Dogma says that you should produce what you're best at I produce what I'm best
01:12:06
at and we trade and then even if you want to charge me more for it if you want to impose tariffs for me to ship to
01:12:11
you I should still keep tariffs down because I'm better off you're just selling me stuff cheaply great or if you
01:12:17
want to subsidize your guys great you're selling me stuff cheaply the problem is
01:12:20
that is not how most modern businesses work most modern businesses have Network effects as a simple thought experiment
01:12:26
suppose that we have two countries right I'm China you're the US I start out by subsidizing all of my companies and
01:12:34
industries that have Network effects so I'll subsidize Tik Tok I'll ban your social media but I'll push mine I will
01:12:42
subsidize my semiconductors which tend do tend to have win or take-all in certain categories or I'll subsidize my
01:12:47
drones and then B exactly byd self-driving whatever and then when I win I own the whole market and I can
01:12:55
raise prices and if you try to start up a competitor then it's too late I've got
01:12:59
Network effects or if I've got scale economies I can lower my price to zero crash you out of business no one in
01:13:04
their right mind will invest and I'll raise prices right back up so you have to understand that certain industries
01:13:10
have hesis or they have Network effects or they have economies of scale and these are all the interesting ones these
01:13:15
are all the high margin businesses so in those if somebody is subsidizing or they're raising tariffs against you to
01:13:21
protect your industries and let them develop you do have to do something you can't just completely back
01:13:28
down what are your thoughts jamath about tariffs and network effects it does seem
01:13:32
like we do want to have uh redundancy in supply chain so there are some exceptions here any um thoughts on how
01:13:40
this might play out because yeah Trump brings up tus every 48 hours and then it doesn't seem like any of them land so I
01:13:47
don't know I'm I'm still on my 72-hour Trump rule which is whatever he says wait 72 hours and and then maybe see if
01:13:54
it actually comes to pass where do you stand on all these tariffs and tariff talk well I think the tariffs will be a
01:14:00
plug are they coming absolutely the Quantum of them I don't know and I think that the way that you can figure
01:14:07
out how extreme it will be it'll be based on what the legislative plan is for the budget so there's two paths
01:14:15
right now path one which I think is a little bit more likely is that they're going to pass a slim down plan in the
01:14:21
Senate just on border security and Military spending and then they'll kick the can down the
01:14:28
road for probably another three or four months on the budget plan two is this one big beautiful bill that's irking its
01:14:35
way through the house and there they're proposing trillions of dollars of cuts in that
01:14:42
mode you're going to need to raise revenu somehow and especially if you're giving away tax breaks and the only way
01:14:48
to do that is probably through tariffs or one way to do it is through tariffs my honest opinion Jason is that
01:14:53
I think we're in a very complicated moment I think the Senate plan is actually on the margins more likely and
01:14:59
better and the reason is because I think that Trump is better off getting the next 60 to 90 days of data I mean we're
01:15:07
in a real pickle here we have persistent inflation we have a broken fed they are
01:15:16
totally asleep at the switch and the thing that Yellen and Biden did which in hindsight now was extremely dangerous is
01:15:25
they issued so much short-term paper that in totality we have $1 trillion dollar we need to finance in the next 6
01:15:32
to9 months so it could be the case that we have rates that are like five five and a quarter 5 a
01:15:42
half% I think that that's extremely bad at the same time as inflation at the same time as delinquencies are ticking
01:15:51
up so I think tariffs are probably going to happen but I think that Trump will have the most
01:16:01
flexibility if he has time to see what the actual economic conditions will be which will be more clear in 3 four five
01:16:10
months and so I almost think this big beautiful bill is actually counterproductive because I I'm not sure
01:16:14
we're gonna have all the data we need to get it right fre B any thoughts on these
01:16:19
tariffs you've been involved in the global uh Marketplace especially when it comes to produce and wheat and all this
01:16:27
corn and everything what do you think the dynamic here is going to be or is it saber rattling and a tool for Trump the
01:16:35
biggest buyer of us a exports is China China a exports are a major Revenue Source major income source and a major
01:16:44
part of the economy for a large number of states and so there will be as there was in the first Trump presidency very
01:16:52
likely very large transfer payments made Farmers because China is very likely going to tariff Imports or stop making
01:17:01
import purchases altoe which is what happened during the first presidency when they did that the federal
01:17:06
government I believe had transfer payments of north of $20 billion to Farmers this is a not negligible sum and
01:17:13
it's a not- negligible economic effect because there's then a Rippling effect throughout the a economy so I think
01:17:18
that's one key thing that I've heard folks talk about is the um the activity that's going to be needed to support the
01:17:26
farm economy as the US's biggest a customer disappears in the early 20th century we
01:17:33
didn't have an income tax and the federal revenue was almost entirely dependent on tariffs when tariffs were
01:17:39
cut there was an expectation that there would be a decline in federal government revenue
01:17:44
but what actually happened is volume went up so lower tariffs actually increased trade increase the size of the
01:17:50
economies this is where a lot of economists take their basis in hey guys if we do these tariffs it's actually
01:17:56
going to shrink the economy it's going to cause a reduction in trade the counterbalancing effect is one that has
01:18:01
not been tested in economics right which is what's going to happen if simultaneously we reduce the income tax
01:18:07
and reduce the corporate income tax and basically increased Capital flows through reduced taxation while doing the
01:18:15
Tariff implementation at the same time so it's a grand economic experiment and I think we'll learn a lot about what's
01:18:21
going to happen here as this all moves forward I do think ultimately these countries are going to capitulate to
01:18:26
some degree and we're going to end up with some negotiated settlement that's going to hopefully not be too short-term
01:18:32
impactful on the economies and the people and the jobs that are dependent on trade economy feels like it's in a
01:18:37
very precarious place it does to asset holders obviously and obviously they've left it in a bad place in the last
01:18:44
Administration and we shut down the entire country for a year over Co the bill for that has come due and that's
01:18:50
reflected inflation I I think there are a couple other points in tariffs first is it's it's not just about money it's
01:18:56
also about making sure we have functional middle class with good jobs because if you have a non-tariff world
01:19:01
maybe all the gains go to the upper class and an underclass and then you can't have a functioning democracy when
01:19:06
the average person is on one of those two extremes so I think that's one issue another is strategic Industries if you
01:19:14
look at it today probably the largest defense contractor in the world is DJI they got all the drones even in Ukraine
01:19:20
both sides are getting all their drone parts from DJI now they're getting it through different supply chain chain and
01:19:25
so on but Ukrainian drones and Russian drones the vast majority of them are coming through China through DJI and we
01:19:31
don't have that industry if we have a kinetic conflict right now and we don't have good drone supply chain internally
01:19:37
in the US we're probably going to lose because those things are autonomous bullets that's the feature of all
01:19:42
Warfare we're buying f-35s and the Chinese are building swarms of Nar scale at scale so we do have to re onore those
01:19:50
critical Supply chains and what is a drone supply chain it's not just there's not thing called drone it's like Motors
01:19:56
and semiconductors and Optics and lasers and just everything across the board so I
01:20:02
think there are other good Arguments for at least reshoring some of these industries we need them and the the
01:20:08
United States is very lucky and that it's very aaric we have all the resources we have all the supplies we
01:20:13
can we can be Upstream of everybody with all the energy to the extent we're importing any energy that is a choice we
01:20:19
made that is not because fundamentally we the energy yeah because of between all the oil resources and the natural
01:20:27
gas and fracking combined with all the work we've done in nuclear fishing and small reactors we should absolutely be
01:20:33
energy independ we should be running the table on it we should we should have AB
01:20:37
a massive Surplus and hey you know if you if you're worried about you know couple of million of door Dash Uber
01:20:43
drivers losing their jobs to automation like hey there's going to be factories to build these parts for these drones
01:20:50
that we're going to need so there there's a lot of opportunity I guess for people and there is a difference between
01:20:55
different kinds of jobs those kinds of jobs are better jobs building difficult things at scale physically that we need
01:21:03
for both National Security and for Innovation th those are better jobs than you know paperwork writing essays for
01:21:10
other people to read yeah or even driving cars all right listen I want to get to two more stories here we have a
01:21:15
really interesting copyright story that I wanted to touch on Thompson Reuters just won the first major US AI copyright
01:21:22
case and fair use played a major role in this decision this has huge implications
01:21:28
for AI companies here in the United States obviously open Ai and the New York Times Getty Images versus stability
01:21:36
we've talked about these but it's been a little while because the legal system takes a little bit of time and these are
01:21:41
very complicated cases as we've talked about Thompson Reuters owns Westlaw if you
01:21:47
don't know that it's kind of like Lexus Nexus it's one of the the legal databases out there that lawyers use to
01:21:53
to find cases Etc uh and they have a paid product with summaries and Analysis of legal decisions back in
01:22:00
2020 this is two years before chat GPT reuter sued a legal research competitor called Ross for copyright infringement
01:22:07
Ross had created an AI powered legal search engine sounds great but Ross had asked Westlaw if they would pay a
01:22:14
license to its content for training wesla said no this all went back and forth and then Ross signed a similar
01:22:20
deal with a company called Legal ease the problem is legal E's database was just cop copied and pasted from a bunch
01:22:26
of Westlaw answers so Reuters Westlaw sued Ross in 2020 accusing the company of being vicariously liable for legal
01:22:33
eases direct infringement super important Point anyway the judge originally favored Ross in fair use this
01:22:40
week the judge reversed this ruling and found Ross liable noting that after further review fair use does not apply
01:22:46
in this case this is the first major win and uh we debated this so here's a clip
01:22:53
you know you heard it here first on the all-in Pod what I would say is you know when you look at that fair use Doctrine
01:23:00
I've got a lot of experience with it you know the fourth Factor test I'm sure you're well aware of this is the effect
01:23:04
of the use on the potential market and the value of the work if you look at the lawsuits that are starting to emerge it
01:23:10
is Getty's right to then make derivative products based on their images I think we would all agree stable diffusion when
01:23:17
they use these open web that is no excuse to use an open web crawler to avoid getting a license from the
01:23:23
original own owner of that just because you can technically do it doesn't mean you're allowed to do it in fact the open
01:23:28
Web projects that provide these say explicitly we do not give you the right to use this you have to then go read the
01:23:35
copyright laws on each of those websites and on top of that if somebody were to steal the copyrights of other people put
01:23:41
it on the open web which is happening all day long you still if you're building a derivative work like this you
01:23:46
still need to go get it so it's no excuse that I took some site in Russia that did a bunch of copyright violation
01:23:52
and then I indexed them for my training model so I've think this is going to result fre free can you shoot me in the
01:23:57
face and let me know when this okay oh great I feel same way same way now exactly I know me too yeah okay good
01:24:08
good segment let's move on well since these guys don't give a about copyright holders what do you
01:24:13
think about uh you know I'm so glad you're here nval to actually talk about the topics these two other guys I'm
01:24:20
going go thinner limb I'm going to go and even thinner Limb and say I largely agree with you I think it's a bit Rich
01:24:25
to crawl the open web Hoover up all the data offer direct substitution for a lot
01:24:29
of use cases because you know now you start and end with the AI model it's not even like you link out like Google did
01:24:34
and then you just close off the models for safety reasons I think if you trained on the open web your model
01:24:38
should be open source yeah absolutely that would be a fine thing I have a prediction here I think this is all
01:24:44
going to wind up wind up like the Naps or Spotify case for people who don't know Spotify pays I think 65 cents on
01:24:52
the dollar to the original Underwriters of of that content the music industry and they figured out a way to make a
01:24:59
business and Napster is roadkill I think that there is a nonzero chance like it might be five or 10% that opening eye is
01:25:08
going to lose the New York Times lawsuit and they're going to lose it hard and there going to be injunctions and I
01:25:12
think it's the settlement might be that these language models especially the closed ones are going to have to pay
01:25:17
some percentage in a negotiated settlement of their revenue half 2/3 to the content
01:25:26
holders and this could make the content industry have a massive massive uplift and a and a and a massive Resurgence I
01:25:35
think that the problem there's an example on the other side of this which is that there's a company that provides
01:25:41
technical support for Oracle third party company and Oracle has tried times to soo them into Oblivion using copyright
01:25:49
infringement as part of the justification and it's been a PA over the stock for a long time the company's
01:25:55
name is riny Street don't ask me why I it's on my radar but I just I've been looking at it and they lost this huge
01:26:03
lawsuit Oracle one and then it went to appella court and then it was all vacated why am I bringing this up I
01:26:10
think that the legal Community has absolutely no idea how these models work because you can find one case that goes
01:26:16
one way and one case that goes the other and what I would say should become standard reading for anybody bringing in
01:26:24
of these lawsuits there's an Incredible video that carpath just dropped that Andre just dropped where he does like
01:26:31
this deep dive into llms and he explains chat GPT from the ground up it's on YouTube it's three hours it's excellent
01:26:40
and it's very difficult to watch that and not get to the same conclusion that you guys did I'll just leave it at that
01:26:47
H I tend to agree with this there's also a good old video by ilas sover where he
01:26:53
he was a I believe the founding Chief scientist or CTO of open Ai and he talks about how these these large language
01:26:59
models are basically extreme compressors and he models them entirely as their ability to compress and they're
01:27:05
L com compression exactly lossy L compression exactly exactly and Google got sued for fair use back in the day
01:27:13
but the way they managed to get past the argument was they were always linking back to you they showed tiny sent you
01:27:18
the traffic they sent you the traffic this is lossy compression it is absolutely I'm now on your p i I hate to
01:27:25
say this Jason I agree with you you were you were right you were right that's all I wanted
01:27:36
to hear all these years that's all I wanted shaking my head when I saw those videos cuz I was like oh man Jason was
01:27:43
right Jason was right oh my God no I just I've been through this so many times that these I think this is you
01:27:50
know rer Murdoch said we should hold the line with Google and not allow them to index our content without a license and
01:27:59
Google navigated it successfully and and they were able to to not get him to stop
01:28:04
I think what's happened now is that the New York Times remembers that they they all remember losing their content and
01:28:13
these Snippets and the one box to Google and they couldn't get that Genie back in
01:28:18
the bottle I think the New York Times realizes this is their payday I think the New York Times will make more money
01:28:24
from licenses from llms then they will make from advertising or subscriptions eventually this will renew the model
01:28:32
almost I think the New York Times content is worthless to an llm but that's a different story I think the
01:28:37
actual Val cont political reason whatever but I can tell you as a user I loved the wire cutter I think you knew
01:28:44
Brian and everybody over the wire cutter we that was like fair enough yeah wire cutter what a great product I used to
01:28:50
pay for the New York Times I no longer pay for the New York Times my main reason was I would go to the wire cut
01:28:54
yeah and I would just buy whatever they told me to buy now I go to chat gbt which I pay
01:29:01
forb tells me what to buy based on the wire cutter so it's it and I'm already paying for it so I stop paying for it I
01:29:08
philosophically disagree with all of your nonsense on this topic all three of you are wrong and I'll tell you why
01:29:16
number one if information is out in the open internet I I believe it's accessible and it's viewable and I view
01:29:23
an llm or a WebCrawler as basically being a human that's reading and can store information in its brain can if
01:29:29
it's out there in the open if it's behind a pay wall 100% if it's behind some protected password wait wait wait
01:29:35
wait David David in that in that case can a Google crawler just crawl entire site and serve it on Google why can't
01:29:41
they do that there so here here's the fair use the fair use is you cannot copy you cannot repeat the content you cannot
01:29:48
take the content and repeat it that is how the law is currently written but now what I have is I have a tool that that
01:29:54
can remix it with 50 other pieces of similar content and I can change the words slightly and maybe even translate
01:29:59
into a different language so where does it stop do you know the musical artist girl talk we should have done a girl
01:30:04
talk track here today he's got musical taste this guy oh good here we go he basically take takes small samples of
01:30:12
popular tracks and he made and he got sued for the same problem there was another guy named white panda I believe
01:30:18
had the same problem Ed Sharon got sued for this yeah but but their entire sites
01:30:22
like stack Overflow and Wiki that have basically disappeared now because you can just swallow them all up and you can
01:30:27
just spit it all back out in chat GPT with slight changes so I I think that the the the fair how much of a slight
01:30:33
change is exactly the right question how much are you changing yeah so that's the
01:30:37
question are and it actually boils down to the AGI question are these things actually intelligent and are they
01:30:42
learning or are they compressing and regurgitating that's the question I wonder this about humans and that's why
01:30:47
I bring up the white panda the girl talk in audio but also visual art there was always artists and all even in classical
01:30:53
music I don't know if you guys are classical music people but right there was there's a demonstration of how you
01:30:59
know one composer learned from the next and that you can actually track the music as kind of being standing on the
01:31:05
shoulders of the prior and the same is true in almost all art forms in almost all human knowledge and Media
01:31:11
communication it's very hard to figure that out well that's exactly right that's the hard it's very hard to figure
01:31:15
that out which is why I come back to there's only one of two stable solutions to this and it's going to happen anyway
01:31:21
if we don't crawl it the Chinese will crawl it right deep seek prove that so there's only one of two stable Solutions
01:31:26
either you pay the copyright holders which I actually think doesn't work and the reason is because someone in China
01:31:32
will crawl it and they just dump the weights right so they can just crawl and com and dump the compressed weights or
01:31:37
if you crawl make it open at least contribute something back to open source right you crawled open data contributed
01:31:44
back to open source and the people who don't want to be crawled they're going to have to go to a huge length to
01:31:49
protect their data now everybody knows to protect the data yeah well thing is happening here I have a book
01:31:57
out from Harper business on the shelf behind me and uh I'm getting 2500 smackaroos for the next three years for
01:32:05
uh Microsoft indexing it so they're going out and they're licensing this stuff and um they're going $2500 so your
01:32:12
book literally I'm getting $2,500 for three years a bunch of Harper to go into an llm to go into Microsoft specifically
01:32:20
and you know what I'm going to sign it I decided because I just want to set the precedent maybe next time it's 10,000
01:32:26
maybe next time it's 250 I don't care I just want to see people have their content respected and I'm just hoping
01:32:32
that Sam wman loses this lawsuit and they get an injunction against it hey uh well just because he's just such a
01:32:38
weasel in terms of like making open AI into a Clos thing I mean I like Sam personally but I think what he did was
01:32:45
like the super weasel move of all time for his own personal benefit If he if he and this whole lying like oh I have no
01:32:52
equity I get healthare he does it no bro he does it he does it for the love what
01:32:58
what was the statement he does it for the I do it for the Jo benefit out of the benefits I think he got Healthcare I
01:33:04
think in opena defense they do need to raise a lot of money and they got to incent their employees but that doesn't
01:33:10
mean they need to take over the whole thing that the nonprofit portion can still stay the nonprofit portion and get
01:33:15
the Lions share the benefits and be the board and then he can have an incentive package and employees can have an
01:33:20
incentive package why don't they get a percentage of the revenue just AB I don't understand has to be bought out
01:33:27
right now for 40 billion and then the whole thing disappears into a closed system that part makes no sense to me
01:33:32
that's called a shell game and a scam yeah I think Sam and his team would do better to leave the nonprofit part alone
01:33:39
leave an actual independent nonprofit board in charge and then have a strong incentive plan and a strong fundraising
01:33:45
plan for the investors and the employees so I think this is workable it's just trying to grab it all just seems way off
01:33:51
especially when it was built on open algorithms for Google open data from the web and nonprofit funding from Elon and
01:33:57
others I mean what a great proposal like we just workshopped here what if they just what do they make six billion a
01:34:03
year just take 10% of it 600 million every year and that goes into uh a bonus they're losing money Jason so they have
01:34:11
to okay eventually they no but even Equity they could they could give Equity to the people building it but they could
01:34:16
still leave it in the control of the nonprofit I just don't understand this conversion I mean there was a there was
01:34:21
a board coup right the board tried to fire took now it's hispi selfing right and yeah they'll get
01:34:29
an independent valuation but we all know that game you hire valuation expert who's going to say what you're going to
01:34:33
say and they'll check box if you're going to capture the life cone of all future value or build super intelligence
01:34:39
that's worth a lot more that's why Elon just spit 100 billion exactly you're saying you're saying the things that
01:34:44
actually The Regulators and and the legal Community have no Insight because they'll see a fairness opinion and they
01:34:50
think oh it says fairness and opinion two words side by side it must be and they don't know how all of this
01:34:56
stuff is gamed so yeah yeah I man I got stories about 409a that would exactly 49a are gamed these fairness
01:35:06
opinions are gamed but the the reality is I don't think the legal and the judicial Community has any idea I mean
01:35:13
imagine if a Founder you invested in just is just a total imaginary situation nval had like a great term sheet at some
01:35:20
incredible dollar amount didn't take it ran the valuation down to like under a million gave themselves a bunch of
01:35:27
shares and then took it three months later I don't know what would that be called Securities for wrap yeah let's
01:35:34
wrap on your story I had an interesting Nick we'll show you the photo I had an interesting dinner on Monday with Brian
01:35:40
Johnson the don't die guy came over to my house how's his erection doing overnight what we talked about is he's
01:35:46
got three hours a night of nighttime erections wow look at this by the way first of all I'll tell you I think that
01:35:55
I I think that he's um wait which one of those is giving him the erection no no no he measures his nighttime
01:36:01
erection I think has given him the erection or he but he said he said that when he started so by the way he said
01:36:07
he's he was 43 when he started this thing he was basically clinically obese yeah and in these next four years has
01:36:15
become a specimen he now has 3 hours a night of nighttime erections but that's not the interesting thing at the end of
01:36:21
this dinner by the way his skin is in I I was not sure because when you see the pictures online but his skin in real
01:36:28
life is like a porcelain dolls I've both my wife and I were like we've never seen
01:36:33
skin like this and it's incredibly soft wait wait wait whoa whoa whoa how do you
01:36:37
know skin is soft you know you brush your hand against his forearm or whatever you know gives a hug at the end
01:36:42
of the night I'm telling you the guy skin is had Supple skin bro it's the softest skin I've ever touched in my
01:36:48
life anyways that's not the point it was really fascinating din he walked through his whole protocol but at
01:36:56
the end of it I think it was Nash the CEO ofo alter networks he was just like give me the top three things top three
01:37:03
and of the top three things what I'll boil it down to is the top one thing which is like 80% of the
01:37:11
80% it's all about sleep I was about to guess sleep and he walked through his nighttime routine and it's incredible
01:37:18
and it's straightforward it's really simple it's like how you do a wind down anyways I have tried to explain the wind
01:37:25
down briefly let's just say that because Brian goes to bed much earlier so our normal time let's just say you know 10
01:37:30
10:30 so my time I try to go to bed by 10:30 he's like you need to be in bed you need to first of all stop eating
01:37:36
three or four hours before right and I do that I eat at 6:30 so I have about 3 hours you're in bed by 9:30 or
01:37:45
10 you deal with the selft talk right like okay here's the active mind telling you all the things you have to fix in
01:37:51
the morning talk it out put it in its place say I'm gonna deal with this in the morning write it down in a journal
01:37:57
you're saying whatever you do so that you put it away you cannot be on your phone that's got to be in a different
01:38:03
room it's or you just got to be able to shut it down and then read a book so that you're actually just engaged in
01:38:09
something and and and he said that he typically falls asleep within three to four minutes of getting into bed and
01:38:16
starting this what I tried it so I've been doing it since I had dinner with him on Monday last night I fell asleep
01:38:22
within 50 minutes H the hardest part for me is to put the phone away I can't do it of course of course what about youal
01:38:30
tell us your one down oh yeah I know so I know I know Brian pretty well actually
01:38:34
and I joke that I'm married to the female Brian Johnson because my wife has some of his routines but she's like the
01:38:40
natural version no supplements and she's intense and I think when Brian saw my sleep score from my eight sleep he was
01:38:51
shot he was he he was just like you're going to die he's like you're literally going to die well you got 70 80 no it's
01:38:56
ter it's terrible it's awful but it's tell what's your number what's your number it like in 30s 40s but you know
01:39:02
yeah but it's also because I don't sleep much I only sleep a few hours a night and I also move around a lot in the bed
01:39:07
and so on but it's fine I I never have trouble falling asleep but I I would say that Brian's yes skincare routine is
01:39:13
amazing his diet is incredible he is a genuine character I do think a lot of what he's saying minus the supplements
01:39:20
I'm not a big believer in supplements yeah does work I don't know if it's necess going to
01:39:25
slow down your aging but you'll look good you'll feel good yeah sleep is the number one thing in terms of falling
01:39:30
asleep I don't think it's really about whether you look at your phone or not believe it or not I think it's about
01:39:35
what you're doing on your phone if you're doing anything that is cognitively stressful or getting your
01:39:40
mind to spin then yes you think you can scroll Tik Tok and fall asleep is fine anything that's entertaining or that is
01:39:49
uh like you could read a book right on your Kindle or on your iPad and I think it'd be fine falling asleep or you can
01:39:55
listen to like some meditation video or some spiritual teacher or something and that'll actually help you fall asleep
01:40:00
but if you're on X or if you're checking your email then heck yeah that's going to keep you up so my hack for sleep is a
01:40:07
little different I normally fall sleep within minutes and the way I do it is I you all have a
01:40:14
meditation you have a set time no no I sleep whenever I feel like usually around 1 in the morning two in the
01:40:18
morning God damn I'm in bed by 10 yeah I need to sleep I'm an owl but if you want
01:40:24
to fall asleep the hack I found is everybody has tried some kind of a meditation routine just sit in bed and
01:40:30
meditate and your mind will hate meditation so much that if you force it to choose between the fork of meditation
01:40:37
and sleeping you will fall asleep every time well okay so after if you don't fall asleep you'll end up meditating
01:40:42
which is great too so just I like the meditation do the body scan the coda to this story was a friend a friend of mine
01:40:49
came to see me from from the UAE and he was here on Tuesday and I was telling him about the dinner with Brian and he
01:40:55
told me the story cuz he's friends with kabib the UFC fighter and he says you know when kib goes to his house he eats
01:41:02
anything and everything fried food pizz whatever but he trains consistently and my friend adala says
01:41:10
how are you able to do that and how does it not affect your physiology goes I've
01:41:14
learned since I was a kid I sleep 3 hours after I train in the morning and I sleep 10 hours at night and I've done it
01:41:20
since I was like 12 or 13 years old that's a lot of sleep it's a lot of sleep I you know the direct correlation
01:41:28
for me is if I uh do something cognitively like you know big heavy duty conversations or whatever so no heavy
01:41:36
conversations at the end of the night no existential conversations the night and
01:41:41
then if I go rucking I have the you know on the ranch I put on a 35b weight vest
01:41:45
I walk you do that at night before you go to bed no no no if I do it anytime during the day I typically do it in the
01:41:50
morning or the afternoon but the 1 to2 mile Ruck with the 35 lbs whatever it is it Just Tires my whole body out so that
01:41:57
when I do lay down is that why you don't prepare for the podt you know I mean this pot is the top
01:42:06
10 pot in the world Chim do you think it's an accident freeberg what's your what's your sleep routine can you just
01:42:12
go to bed you just like warm bath and I send J Calli a picture of my feet I'll wait till jal's done I do take a nice
01:42:21
warm bath it but you do you do it every night a warm bath I do yeah I do a warm bath
01:42:27
every night with candles too and do you do it right before you go to bed yeah I usually do it after I put the kids down
01:42:34
and I'll basically start to wind down for bed I do watch TV sometimes but I do have the problem and the mistake of
01:42:40
looking at my phone probably for too long before I turn the lights off so do you have a consistent time where you go
01:42:45
to bed or no usually 11:00 to midnight and then up at 6:30 man I I need I need eight hours
01:42:55
otherwise I'm a mess I go to I'm trying to get eight I hit between 600 and seven
01:42:59
consistently I try to go to bed that 11: to 1:00 a.m. window and get up the 7 to
01:43:04
8 window my problem is if I have work to do I'll get on the computer or my laptop
01:43:08
and then when I start that after in my evening routine I can't stop and then all of a sudden it's like 3 in the
01:43:14
morning and I'm like oh no what did I just do and then I still have to get up at 6:30 so that does happen to me so
01:43:20
last night was unusual for me but it was kind of funny anyway I thought oh I should go to bed early cuz I'm an Allin
01:43:25
yeah but I ended up eating ice cream with the kids late wait what was the brand you said
01:43:32
you went for another brand I want to know the brand I think it's van Luen or something like
01:43:37
that New York and the holiday cookies and cream oh my God so good yeah it's so good so after I
01:43:44
polish that off then I was like oh I probably ate too much to go to bed so I better work out so I did a kettle bell
01:43:51
workout you sound like Mo what did you say I have eight kettle bells right here right next
01:43:58
to free this is called working out fre and then while I'm doing my kettlebell suitcase carry I was texting
01:44:07
with an entrepreneur friend so you can tell how intense my workout was and he's in Singapore so it was in the middle of
01:44:13
the night for me and early for him and was time to go to bed I was like I was like okay now I got to get to bed how do
01:44:19
I get to bed I'm my body is all amped up I've got food in my stomach Bells my brain is all my brain is all
01:44:26
amped up and all in podcast is tomorrow and what time is it's 1:30 in the morning I better get to bed so I I put
01:44:33
on like a little one of those spiritual videos to calm me down and then I just and then I got in bed and I was like
01:44:40
there's no way I'm falling asleep and I started meditating and 5 minutes later I
01:44:44
was asleep you know actually the dolly Lama has these great on his YouTube channel he's got these great like 2hour
01:44:50
discussions you get about 20 30 minutes into that you will fall asleep well yeah
01:44:55
my but my learning is yeah watch any Dharma lecture from the SS exactly and my my lesson is my learning is that the
01:45:03
mind will do anything to avoid meditation yeah yes by the way did you guys see just before we W did you see
01:45:09
all the confirmations RFK Jr confirmed Brook rolands confirmed by the way if you look at Poly Market poly Market had
01:45:16
it all right a couple weeks ago like I was TR Market there was a moment where fell to like 56% there was a moment when
01:45:24
RFK fell to 75% but then they bounced back and it was done could you got snip that man you could have made money yeah
01:45:31
and the media the media was like no way he's getting confirmed this is not going
01:45:34
to happen but poly Market knows it's so interesting huh well I saw a very insightful tweet and I forget who wrote
01:45:40
it so I'm sorry I can't give credit but the guy basically said look Trump has a narrow majority in the house and the
01:45:48
Senate yeah and he can get everything he wants as long as a Republicans stay in line so all the pressure and all the
01:45:54
anger that all the mega movement is doing against the left is pointless it's all about keeping the rightwing in line
01:46:03
so it's all the people saying to the Senators hey I'm going to primary you Nicole Shanahan saying I'm going to
01:46:08
primary you it's Scott Pressler saying I'm moving to your District that's the stuff that's moving the needle and
01:46:14
causing the confirmations to go through that's how you get cash Patel that's how
01:46:17
you get toy gabber the dni that's how you get RF you worry about any of these you think any of them are are too spicy
01:46:23
for your taste or you just like the whole burn it down put in the crazy like Outsiders that's such a bad
01:46:31
characterization that's not a fair characterization mean the out honestly it's like I never thought I'd see it but
01:46:36
I think between Elon and sax and people like that we actually have Builders and doers and financially intelligent people
01:46:42
and economically intelligent people in charge and you know despite all the craziness elon's not doing this for the
01:46:47
money he's doing it because he thinks it's the right thing to do he moved into the Roosevelt
01:46:53
I I think like many of us I had I had bought into the great forces of History mindset where it's just like okay it's
01:46:59
inevitable this is what's happening government always gets bigger always gets slower and we just have to try and
01:47:04
get stuff built before they just shut everything down and we turn into Europe but the thing that happened then was you
01:47:10
know Caesar crossed crossed the Rubicon the great man theory of History played out and we're living in that time and
01:47:16
it's it's an inspiration to all of us despite Sam Alman and elon's current fighting I know Sam was inspired by Elon
01:47:22
at one point and I think all of us are inspired by Elon I mean the guy can be the Diablo player and do Doge and run
01:47:29
SpaceX and Tesla and boring and neural link I mean it's incredibly impressive it makes us that's why I'm doing a
01:47:34
hardware company now it makes me want to do something useful with my life you know Elon always makes me question am I
01:47:40
doing something useful enough with my life it's why I don't want to be an investor you know Peter te ironically
01:47:45
he's an investor but he's inspirational that way too because he like yeah the future just doesn't just happen you have
01:47:51
to go make it so you know we get to go make the future and I'm just glad that Elon and Doge and others are making the
01:47:56
future thatare what the what do we got going on here maybe I'll all in podcast in a couple of months but it's really
01:48:03
it's really difficult I'm not sure I can pull it off so let me try let me just make sure it's viable is it drone
01:48:07
related is it self-driving drone drones are cool but no it's not maybe podcast should be an angel investor oh yes
01:48:16
absolutely no no Syndicate Jason just our Mone what are you talking about you know how I learned about syndicates was
01:48:21
Nal the first syic I ever did on angelist I think is still the biggest I don't know 5% and Nal is my partner on
01:48:29
this for.com I think you'll love what I'm working on if I pull it off I think you guys will love it i' love to show
01:48:35
your demo let us know where to send the check get that black cherry chip van Leen I love you guys what have we
01:48:40
learned I gotta go okay big shout out to Bobby and to Tulsa that's a huge huge huge room for America I'm stoked about
01:48:47
both of them congratulations I love me thanks for coming let's get bobbyy Bobby come back on the
01:48:57
Pod four thear David Sachs your sulan of science David freeberg the chairman dictator chamath P hatita
01:49:09
POA and Namaste N I am the world's greatest moderator we'll see you next time on the all in pond say
01:49:19
byebye let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:49:31
with it love you queen [Music] of Besties are that's my dog taking your [Music] driveways oh man myit will meet me at we
01:49:51
should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this usess it's like this like sexual tension
01:49:56
that they just need to release [Music] somehow we need to get mer [Music] our I'm going all in