00:00:00
all right what oh I'm doing this again
00:00:02
all right listen it's a two-parter you
00:00:05
listen to the first part now this is the
00:00:06
second part episode 76.5 if you will
00:00:10
this is our first ever two-parter part
00:00:12
two of our two-parter you already
00:00:14
listened to part one of episode 76
00:00:16
that's Elon and Twitter lots of details
00:00:18
there and now we're gonna cover some
00:00:21
more topics including the global food
00:00:23
crisis China's plan to stockpile a bunch
00:00:25
of food geopolitics while Around the
00:00:27
Horn French election Germany Etc and
00:00:30
then we'll go into details about a
00:00:32
little bit of the drama and details
00:00:34
pageanty parties poker all the good
00:00:37
stuff of the all-in summon
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coming soon okay enjoy the show
00:00:42
everybody
00:00:44
[Music]
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[Music]
00:01:00
there's uh still a war raging but uh I
00:01:04
wanted to get an update from Friedberg
00:01:05
on the food crisis which he
00:01:09
um predicted very early for a lot
00:01:11
further fertilizer prices are still
00:01:14
climbing like crazy
00:01:16
there's been some food rioting in China
00:01:18
which I think is a separate issue Hill
00:01:20
educate us in a minute Sri Lanka
00:01:23
so what is your theory of what we're
00:01:25
going to do from here Friedberg because
00:01:28
I think we're all waiting for this shoe
00:01:30
to drop and I think you predicted this
00:01:31
is something that we would experience
00:01:32
into the fall and into next year so
00:01:36
when are we going to actually see these
00:01:38
food riots occurring and then as China's
00:01:39
food rights have anything to do with
00:01:40
this or does that have to do with a yeah
00:01:42
I would put the Chinese food riots as
00:01:44
kind of a separate localized supply
00:01:46
chain problem related to the lockdowns
00:01:48
got it but we're definitely uh you know
00:01:51
I think I mentioned last week the USDA
00:01:53
planting report showing in the U.S how
00:01:55
acreage is being reduced on corn and
00:01:58
and and we're seeing this around the
00:01:59
world where acres are coming out of
00:02:01
production or less fertilizers being
00:02:03
used which means Less Foods being made
00:02:04
so everything that we predicted I mean
00:02:06
this is a slow train a Titanic into the
00:02:08
iceberg that we're watching right now
00:02:10
and it's going to continue for nine to
00:02:12
18 months
00:02:14
so you know one of the questions that
00:02:16
people are now asking which I said you
00:02:18
know would become a really critical next
00:02:20
step in this crisis is how are we going
00:02:22
to bridge the gap in calories where is
00:02:24
the food going to come from
00:02:26
and how are we going to feed Nations
00:02:27
that are almost entirely dependent on
00:02:30
Imports that are running out of food or
00:02:31
out of food so I've mentioned this in
00:02:33
the past the whole world runs on a
00:02:34
90-day food supply which means roughly
00:02:37
25 percent of the world's calories are
00:02:39
in storage right now but that's not the
00:02:41
case uniformly so some countries like
00:02:44
Tunisia and Somalia Ethiopia have close
00:02:48
to zero calories in storage some
00:02:51
countries
00:02:52
um like uh the United States are roughly
00:02:55
you know 30 40 percent of our you know
00:02:57
annual consumed calories are sitting in
00:02:59
storage China is a complete outlier for
00:03:02
yours China has been stockpiling food
00:03:05
and at this point china has a hundred
00:03:08
and fifty percent of their annual
00:03:10
consumption of food in storage so they
00:03:12
have supplies that if all food
00:03:15
production and imports stopped in China
00:03:16
they would be able to feed their
00:03:19
population for one and a half years
00:03:20
that's an incredible supply of food so
00:03:23
as you look around the world to places
00:03:24
like Sri Lanka and places like like
00:03:26
Somalia that are struggling to figure
00:03:28
out how are we going to bridge this gap
00:03:29
on calories that's about to hit us
00:03:31
Egypt's about four months of food by the
00:03:33
way and Egypt is dwindling they cannot
00:03:35
get the food
00:03:36
um Out of the Black Sea
00:03:38
so China is going to be one of the very
00:03:42
few potential solutions for Bridging the
00:03:45
calorie Gap over the next year
00:03:46
and I have a strong prediction and a
00:03:49
strong belief that because of that China
00:03:51
will use it to maximal leverage and we
00:03:53
will see over the next year an
00:03:56
incredible amount of Leverage and power
00:03:59
being accumulated by China because of
00:04:02
transactions that they're going to start
00:04:03
to enter into to bridge the calorie Gap
00:04:05
around the world so in the Horn of
00:04:07
Africa for example there has been this
00:04:10
continuous presence of China trying to
00:04:12
give themselves a military base trying
00:04:14
to take a um some influence over local
00:04:17
media and there's been this kind of push
00:04:19
and pull with the you know certain
00:04:21
populations around whether or not we
00:04:23
should kind of embrace China locally and
00:04:25
I think that for example the the food
00:04:28
crisis that we're seeing emerge in
00:04:30
Ethiopia Somalia Eritrea Djibouti is
00:04:32
going to be resolved by China and China
00:04:35
is going to end up gaining influence
00:04:37
gaining military presence and
00:04:39
establishing a more permanent foothold
00:04:41
in the Horn of Africa because of the
00:04:44
position that they're in of strength
00:04:45
with all these calories
00:04:47
and the and the need in these regions
00:04:49
that's not just there Sri Lanka
00:04:51
other parts of Southeast Asia
00:04:54
even Western Africa Northern Africa
00:04:56
China is going to show up and they're
00:04:59
the only country that can show up the
00:05:00
U.N the world food program they're going
00:05:02
to do everything they can to shuffle
00:05:03
calories around change Food Supplies but
00:05:06
I do think that one of the things that
00:05:07
everyone's going to be watching and it's
00:05:09
it's a slow roll this isn't going to be
00:05:11
some one big deal and everyone wakes up
00:05:13
over the next year while the U.S is you
00:05:16
know trying to do everything we can to
00:05:17
maximally imposed sanctions on Russia
00:05:19
China is slowly turning the crank around
00:05:22
the world on the influence that they are
00:05:24
going to gain because of this food
00:05:26
crisis and the absolute
00:05:28
um uh you know Surplus that they have
00:05:30
locally and the ability to export that
00:05:32
Surplus to support needs around the
00:05:34
world and it's not going to be free it's
00:05:35
not going to be cheap so I thought it
00:05:37
was worth highlighting what we're seeing
00:05:39
and I shared a couple of articles with
00:05:40
you guys and with Nick articles that no
00:05:42
one is paying attention to and this
00:05:45
isn't some conspiratorial oh my God
00:05:47
there's some dangerous thing happening
00:05:48
I'm just pointing out one of the things
00:05:50
that's happening as we talk about you
00:05:51
know the great change in power the shift
00:05:53
in power globally that's happening it is
00:05:56
happening in a very significant way this
00:05:58
year given the Surplus that China has
00:06:01
the dirt that many countries have and
00:06:03
the inability for the U.S to really
00:06:05
adequately respond to the food crisis
00:06:07
that that's emerging
00:06:08
um and so I thought it was worth
00:06:09
bringing to everyone's attention there's
00:06:11
a lot of little articles that support
00:06:13
this point I shared them with you guys
00:06:15
you guys can put them in the show notes
00:06:16
and and put them up on YouTube and
00:06:18
whatever
00:06:19
um but I think this is going to become a
00:06:20
macro Trend that we're going to wake up
00:06:21
to in six to nine months and be like
00:06:23
whoa what the heck happened you know how
00:06:25
how did China get so much leverage
00:06:27
around the world and it's it's starting
00:06:29
now
00:06:30
that's what happens with every war you
00:06:33
know we all we go in hot you know we
00:06:35
it's you know raw raw we're all gung-ho
00:06:37
and then at some point in time we're
00:06:39
like wait a second why do we do that you
00:06:41
know
00:06:43
and you know and look there's no
00:06:45
shortage of of neocons and liberal
00:06:48
interventionists who are all saying this
00:06:50
war is wonderful for us because it's
00:06:52
reunited the American Alliance and the
00:06:54
Western Alliance and that this has been
00:06:56
this war is a good thing for us let's
00:06:57
keep it going let's bleed Russia let's
00:07:00
topple Putin let's deep stabilizer
00:07:02
regime they're in favor of protracted
00:07:05
conflict that I've been you know warning
00:07:07
against and what Friedberg is saying is
00:07:09
the longer this conflict goes on the
00:07:11
more of these disaster scenarios are
00:07:14
going to materialize
00:07:16
what are you what is your take on how
00:07:19
crippled Putin is right now David just
00:07:21
objectively and again you're not a fan
00:07:23
of Putin
00:07:27
is the ship like I mean this does not
00:07:30
look good for him
00:07:31
um
00:07:31
it feels like he can't and he's losing
00:07:34
all his tanks I mean this seems like I
00:07:36
don't know anything you don't know in
00:07:37
terms of you know I'm just a consumer of
00:07:39
information but I tend to think that we
00:07:42
are overly optimistic in the west and
00:07:44
look the war's clearly gone very bad for
00:07:46
Putin but this idea that everything that
00:07:49
magically we're going to get regime
00:07:50
change in Moscow we're gonna get
00:07:52
Gorbachev 2.0
00:07:54
that that is that is an objective worth
00:07:57
protracting this war for uh I tend to
00:08:00
think it's going to be a mistake I mean
00:08:01
that that's now
00:08:03
doesn't mean I support Russia's Invasion
00:08:06
I've said it's illegal it's a crime it's
00:08:09
a violation of international law it's a
00:08:11
humanitarian disaster but what I've
00:08:13
supported is a is a uh negotiated piece
00:08:16
a settlement that we try to get as
00:08:18
quickly as possible that is clearly not
00:08:19
the administration's position on this
00:08:20
they want to keep this thing going and
00:08:23
you know this idea that that a long war
00:08:25
is good for America's alliances I would
00:08:28
disagree with that because you're
00:08:28
already seeing all over the world now
00:08:31
people are starting to object to
00:08:32
American policy you saw it with India
00:08:34
and India is the world's largest
00:08:36
democracy they should be on our side
00:08:38
they definitely should not be on China's
00:08:40
side because they have a huge they're
00:08:42
not late intention but
00:08:45
China and India are both de facto on
00:08:49
Russia Asylum than this
00:08:50
Africa and large parts of Latin America
00:08:52
India would like to have oil
00:08:56
they would like to maintain their
00:08:58
relationship with Russia and they did
00:09:00
not support the denunciation of Russia
00:09:02
they would like to see this conflict and
00:09:03
large parts of Africa would like to see
00:09:05
it end Latin America basically all the
00:09:08
victims uh if there's a famine in the
00:09:10
world in six months like Friedberg is
00:09:12
saying they are all very worried about
00:09:13
this all of them have expressed concern
00:09:16
with the American policy which seems to
00:09:18
be to protract this war okay Freeburg
00:09:20
you have to go do your talk at Berkeley
00:09:22
congratulations and we'll see you next
00:09:24
time thanks for the contribution
00:09:26
Tremont any thoughts on the um CPI we
00:09:29
set a record that seemed to have gotten
00:09:31
lost in the the haze of Twitter I
00:09:34
learned something really interesting
00:09:35
that I just wanted to share with you
00:09:37
guys
00:09:37
um so there was a big CPI print
00:09:39
obviously but there was a report
00:09:42
probably not many people read it
00:09:45
but it was about uh home equity
00:09:48
and the takeaway was that since 2020
00:09:51
Americans have taken to 430 I think the
00:09:55
exact number is 427. 427 billion dollars
00:09:59
of home equity out of their homes and
00:10:01
effectively spent it
00:10:04
so what it what it started to make me
00:10:06
think about was if you look at all of
00:10:08
that home equity plus the stemi checks
00:10:11
plus the unemployment insurance checks
00:10:14
that starts to explain I think why the
00:10:16
labor markets are so tight and why
00:10:17
people haven't gone back to work they
00:10:19
are just no motivation because there's
00:10:20
just so much money sloshing around for
00:10:23
them to basically not have to be forced
00:10:25
to do any of this stuff that they don't
00:10:26
want to anymore
00:10:28
and I think the the thing to keep in
00:10:30
mind is like that's also what's gone
00:10:32
into the stock market it's also what's
00:10:33
Driven up the price of used cars new
00:10:36
cars all of the stuff
00:10:38
I just think that kind of like starts to
00:10:41
paint a picture of CPI that's really
00:10:43
important which is that it's probably a
00:10:46
little bit more transitory
00:10:48
than we may actually think because when
00:10:51
you exhaust all of that extra money
00:10:56
there's not as much inflation to be had
00:10:58
and I think most people are now
00:11:00
forecasting that inflation is really
00:11:02
going to taper off and the big warning
00:11:05
sign that everybody is sort of you know
00:11:07
marching towards is you know too many
00:11:09
excessive rate hikes between now and the
00:11:12
end of the year could actually push us
00:11:13
into a real recession and we were
00:11:15
talking about that before but the
00:11:16
probability is now sort of like one in
00:11:18
three whereas before I think you know
00:11:21
David and I sounded a little bit crazy
00:11:23
when we were talking about it so I just
00:11:25
wanted to put that out there as
00:11:26
something I learned this week that I
00:11:27
thought was really important
00:11:28
participation rate peaked at 67 68
00:11:31
percent
00:11:33
but half a trillion dollars I mean half
00:11:36
a trillion dollars of actual spending in
00:11:38
the economy that's a ton of money to be
00:11:40
absorbed right if people have a couple
00:11:42
of hundred grand in their bank account
00:11:43
who own homes or whatever there's no
00:11:45
need to go back to a job and if you
00:11:47
don't feel safe because you maybe still
00:11:48
have some coveted fears you don't want
00:11:50
to commute or you're just out of the
00:11:51
Rhythm for two years and you're like I'm
00:11:53
kind of enjoying skiing or whatever
00:11:54
you're doing whatever your jam is maybe
00:11:56
there's no
00:11:57
there's no rush to get back you'll wait
00:12:00
until you you'll wait until you exhaust
00:12:02
all of that yeah
00:12:03
this is a this is and then we're not as
00:12:06
we talked about we're not letting people
00:12:07
into the country at the same time so you
00:12:09
still have 10 million job openings
00:12:12
if that flips that would be economic
00:12:14
activity that would be helpful in
00:12:17
flighting fighting against
00:12:20
a recession correct
00:12:22
I mean I I think that that we're
00:12:25
probably going to have a a quarter or
00:12:26
two contraction
00:12:28
it's probably going to happen sort of at
00:12:30
the late end of this year beginning of
00:12:32
next year just the real question is how
00:12:33
how high are rates between now and then
00:12:36
and again I think the setup isn't very
00:12:39
good which is that the
00:12:41
investors in the stock market are
00:12:43
playing chicken with the fed and you
00:12:46
know they're just at the beginning of a
00:12:47
rate cycle and they haven't been able to
00:12:49
impact any real forms of liquidity in
00:12:51
the equity Market and so I think they're
00:12:54
gonna they're going to attack that and
00:12:58
the only blunt force instrument they
00:12:59
have is rates and so you know you could
00:13:01
see rates of three three and a half
00:13:03
percent and that's going to impact a lot
00:13:05
of stuff and the problem is that you
00:13:07
know uh it's going to be after the
00:13:10
economy has slowed down because it's
00:13:12
going to be after a lot of these
00:13:14
you know fake savings if you will um
00:13:17
have been depleted yeah well we're
00:13:18
seeing some pressure come off as well
00:13:19
the car shortage is kind of ending
00:13:22
and wages have raised so that it seems
00:13:24
like they're in in this
00:13:27
you know Confluence of events certain
00:13:29
things are starting to work themselves
00:13:30
out are you hey can I tell you something
00:13:32
else I was I was in Washington uh this
00:13:34
week the number of people that listen to
00:13:37
our pod it is incredible
00:13:42
people in Washington care about our
00:13:45
views on politics it's incredible I've
00:13:47
heard that feedback too yeah it's really
00:13:49
really really special we've we've
00:13:51
stumbled into something pretty cool and
00:13:53
the fact that it's like must it's it's
00:13:55
it's uh it's must listening it's must
00:13:57
listen it's like a Sunday weekly show
00:13:59
you just get a different perspective
00:14:00
from the tech sector and capital
00:14:02
allocators that maybe you don't get on
00:14:04
us you know beat the press or something
00:14:05
yeah but just to follow up on that
00:14:07
inflation point the economic Point Jason
00:14:09
if I can so please
00:14:12
so look the main reason inflation is
00:14:14
going to go down in the second half of
00:14:15
this year is because inflation is
00:14:17
measured on a year-over-year basis and
00:14:19
you remember about a year ago is when
00:14:21
inflation started but you know around
00:14:23
this time last year inflation was only
00:14:24
two and a half percent then it reached
00:14:26
five percent by the summer then by the
00:14:27
end of the year was almost eight percent
00:14:29
so as we sort of lap last year's
00:14:32
inflation rate we come up against you
00:14:34
know you're copying against uh 7.8
00:14:37
number last year so I don't think
00:14:39
inflation's going to get any better
00:14:41
we're probably looking at roughly a 12
00:14:43
percent you know official two-year
00:14:46
inflation number so in other words since
00:14:48
Biden took over as president you're
00:14:50
looking at probably 12 to 13 percent of
00:14:53
total inflation as measured by CPI and
00:14:55
that is why even though the headline
00:14:57
number will come down later this year I
00:14:59
don't think the American people are
00:15:00
going to feel any better about the
00:15:02
situation you can almost predict that
00:15:04
gen sake or whoever replaces her at the
00:15:06
podium at the White House briefing room
00:15:08
they're going to be touting these lower
00:15:10
inflation numbers at the end of the year
00:15:11
but it doesn't mean price levels will
00:15:13
have decreased prices will still be very
00:15:15
high when people go to the grocery store
00:15:17
they buy meat or bread or what have you
00:15:20
it's going to be very expensive and I
00:15:23
don't think people are going to be
00:15:24
feeling better off and there's going to
00:15:25
be a lot of negativity going into the
00:15:28
November election for this
00:15:29
Administration and also I think it's
00:15:31
going to impact consumption I mean if
00:15:32
you're going to a gas station and you I
00:15:35
mean I drove the minivan to LA
00:15:38
and it's the only electric it's only
00:15:40
non-electric car we have we happen to
00:15:42
drive it because we had a number of
00:15:43
people that was bigger than the X and
00:15:45
uh it was like shocking to buy seven
00:15:48
dollar gasoline and obviously I can uh
00:15:50
would stand you know filling up but I
00:15:53
could see people saying you know what
00:15:54
maybe I'm not going to make that
00:15:56
incremental trip or you know you start
00:15:58
looking at some of the prices yeah you
00:16:01
know for taking a trip or flights I
00:16:03
don't know if you've looked at flights
00:16:04
or hotels like things are starting to
00:16:06
creep up that it's like super noticeable
00:16:08
and that's got to affect consumption and
00:16:10
then that what would be what would be
00:16:12
part of those negative two quarters
00:16:14
right shamath I mean the role of people
00:16:17
stopping consuming and just saying you
00:16:19
know what yeah it's too expensive right
00:16:21
now just I'll stay at home and watch
00:16:22
Netflix [ __ ] it you know I'll cook pasta
00:16:24
tonight you see that happening already
00:16:26
yeah people are starting to balance the
00:16:28
balance sheet just looking at the
00:16:30
balance sheet and saying you know what
00:16:30
what's a way I can you know cut some
00:16:33
expensive items off the you know I'll
00:16:35
ride a bike they're going to take less
00:16:36
travel because you know the cost of
00:16:38
airline tickets have gone up because the
00:16:39
cost of the jet fuel has gone up it all
00:16:41
it all ripples through the economy um
00:16:44
but I think the thing is that when
00:16:47
when the FED gets involved though they
00:16:49
get involved in you know in a Brute
00:16:51
Force way let me make a prediction right
00:16:52
now if we're we're definitely headed
00:16:54
into an economic slowdown I don't know
00:16:56
if it will meet the technical definition
00:16:57
of recession but very high negative
00:16:59
quarters of growth yeah you know very
00:17:01
high chance I think of recession like
00:17:03
jamas said towards the end of the year
00:17:05
if this war is still going on and we get
00:17:07
in a recession Look Out Below I think
00:17:10
this President will be in Jimmy Carter
00:17:11
territory he began the year at 38 that
00:17:14
was in reasonably good conditions of
00:17:16
Peace time if you know and I tweeted at
00:17:18
the beginning of the year in January I
00:17:20
said that you know this is you know
00:17:22
you're at 38 that's with peace and
00:17:25
prosperity Look Out Below if we get
00:17:26
recession and War that's what it's
00:17:28
looking like right now so um you know I
00:17:31
think this is things are looking pretty
00:17:33
pretty dire which is why I keep saying
00:17:35
it you know the policy this
00:17:36
Administration should be to try and find
00:17:38
a settlement to the situation in Ukraine
00:17:41
to this War I know that we didn't start
00:17:43
it Putin started it let's be clear but
00:17:45
if there's an off-ramp here we should be
00:17:48
seizing it because we got real problems
00:17:50
back home in America and the
00:17:52
administration should be focused on our
00:17:54
economy and our problems
00:17:56
Europe is going to be the canary in the
00:17:58
coal mine on all of this because I think
00:18:00
they feel this uh pretty severely and I
00:18:02
think there's a a lot of exhaustion
00:18:05
amongst European governments and leaders
00:18:06
when you start to listen to this
00:18:07
rhetoric
00:18:09
to kind of you know find a way to end
00:18:12
what's going on over there because the
00:18:16
they're gonna see
00:18:18
a pretty meaningful recession I think
00:18:19
yeah absolutely much more much more so
00:18:21
than we will yeah and if you look if you
00:18:23
look right now what's happening in
00:18:24
France Marine Le Pen is surging
00:18:26
unbelievable against macron I don't know
00:18:28
if she's going to pull off the upset but
00:18:30
one of the major pillars well actually
00:18:31
here's what she's running on she is
00:18:33
saying that she has been focused on
00:18:36
inflation and cost of living and she
00:18:38
says macron has been distracted by being
00:18:40
America's basically lap dog puppet
00:18:43
whatever on Ukraine so she's saying we
00:18:45
need to focus on the French economy and
00:18:48
she's also saying that we as France
00:18:51
should set our own follower policy and
00:18:52
not be so differential to the U.S she
00:18:54
says that this protracted war in Ukraine
00:18:56
and all this hot rhetoric coming out of
00:18:58
the bite Administration about war crimes
00:19:00
and destabilizing Putin and toppling him
00:19:02
and putting him on trial at the hay that
00:19:04
is not in French interest that's what
00:19:06
the Americans want to do but it's not
00:19:08
what we should be wanting to do we need
00:19:09
to end this war and I'm not ready to say
00:19:12
she's going to pull off the upside yet
00:19:13
but she is clearly articulating that
00:19:15
message because she is finding purchase
00:19:18
with the French electorate based on that
00:19:20
message and you're going to hear that if
00:19:21
this war continues for three months and
00:19:23
six months and Europe goes into
00:19:25
recession you're going to start hearing
00:19:26
uh politicians all over the European
00:19:29
continent saying the same thing and
00:19:31
questioning American leadership and why
00:19:32
are they are dragging this thing out the
00:19:34
the thing that's the scariest thing
00:19:36
about the French election
00:19:38
and I'm not sure how many Americans uh
00:19:41
paid attention to it but just to maybe
00:19:42
summarize in a very quick nutshell you
00:19:45
actually had this really interesting
00:19:46
Dynamic of three candidates
00:19:50
one was what would be considered far
00:19:53
left uh Jean-Luc Menasha one far right
00:19:56
marrying Le Pen and then one that was
00:19:58
very Centrist Emmanuel Metro and what's
00:20:01
crazy is both of these two were you know
00:20:05
22 plus percent of all of the votes
00:20:09
it was just that Le Pen and macron were
00:20:12
one and two and so they go into a runoff
00:20:14
election and you know malshawn was very
00:20:16
clear he was like under no circumstance
00:20:18
should any of my supporters vote for Le
00:20:21
Pen
00:20:22
but it just shows you what's happening
00:20:25
which is like France which is you know
00:20:29
sort of coming undone under this
00:20:31
populist fight
00:20:33
um is probably uh a canary in the coal
00:20:36
mine for how this stuff could play out
00:20:38
in other places and it's kind of scary
00:20:40
it'd be interesting to see what happens
00:20:41
in Germany as well as they look at this
00:20:44
enabling of they were able to hold the
00:20:46
line they you know they still have a
00:20:47
center right government but you know in
00:20:49
Austria for a while that wasn't the case
00:20:51
in Hungary it's not really the case
00:20:54
um so there's a lot of countries at
00:20:56
least in the Eastern Bloc of of Europe
00:20:58
where you've you've seen a tip in One
00:21:00
Direction or the other
00:21:02
um it's not unreasonable to think of
00:21:03
that in France it could tip in One
00:21:05
Direction or the other fortunately in
00:21:07
the UK or unfortunately however you look
00:21:09
at it it's still really a two-party
00:21:10
system
00:21:12
um for the most part I think
00:21:14
so I don't know we're in a really uh
00:21:17
precarious moment in world history I
00:21:18
think
00:21:19
yeah
00:21:21
by the way I want to talk about one
00:21:23
thing that I talked at the end of last
00:21:24
year I talked about just a very random
00:21:25
thing
00:21:26
um about you know uh visa and MasterCard
00:21:29
and how you could short them
00:21:31
um or you know like basically like the
00:21:33
payment networks we're gonna start to
00:21:35
get you know dismantled this year
00:21:38
it's really interesting to see I don't
00:21:40
know if you guys have been really paying
00:21:41
attention to all the activity that's
00:21:43
been happening in payments over like the
00:21:45
last
00:21:46
literally 90 days I think has been
00:21:48
really incredible up into you know just
00:21:50
today you know visa and MasterCard I
00:21:53
think are doing the single dumbest thing
00:21:54
they could do by being a duopoly which
00:21:56
is Raising prices especially into an
00:21:59
inflationary moment which just lacks
00:22:01
complete knowledge and sensitivity of
00:22:04
the moment so damp economic activity but
00:22:07
also creates the incentives for
00:22:09
disruption sure right because then the
00:22:11
gap between you and your next Killer's
00:22:13
competitor becomes more obvious and
00:22:15
again in capitalism you compete away
00:22:17
these advantages and I just think that
00:22:19
uh the setup is becoming more and more
00:22:21
obvious for the shift in payments I just
00:22:23
think it's quite interesting so Dick
00:22:25
Durbin actually today basically is going
00:22:27
to create a big you know hubbub in the
00:22:29
Senate around these increasing Merchant
00:22:30
fees which will eventually spill over to
00:22:32
Consumers
00:22:34
there's some talk that you know uh I I
00:22:36
what is it called zelly uh is that how
00:22:39
you pronounce it zelly the the the the
00:22:41
the inner Bank payment system people
00:22:43
were talking about them converting that
00:22:44
to becoming a more substantive payment
00:22:46
system and then this week
00:22:48
I was able to see a little bit under the
00:22:50
hood of you know Solana pay
00:22:54
and that's really exciting so it's all
00:22:57
coming I think like uh it's like a swarm
00:22:59
of activity uh to dismantle these
00:23:02
payments businesses I just wanted to
00:23:03
just
00:23:04
give the 90-day update from our from our
00:23:07
discussion in January all right
00:23:08
everybody uh we will see you may 15th
00:23:10
16th and 17th in Miami for the first all
00:23:13
in Summit now sold out no more tickets
00:23:15
available there's a waitlist but we're
00:23:17
not going to be able to get to anybody
00:23:18
on it sorry you can sign up and we'll
00:23:20
make sure you know about next year if
00:23:21
there is a next year this might be a one
00:23:23
and done kind of situation three amazing
00:23:25
parties Sunday night is our poker
00:23:27
tournament for charity the top uh it's
00:23:29
gonna be a sit and go format if you win
00:23:31
your sit and go you go into a sit and go
00:23:34
bake off and then you get to sit at the
00:23:36
final table with the four besties the
00:23:38
winners are going to get to make a
00:23:39
donation to the charity of their choice
00:23:41
uh paid for by the besties and Sunday
00:23:44
night's party will be the Goodfellas
00:23:45
party Monday is going to be the Havana
00:23:47
White Party bring your linen sacks I
00:23:49
know you got a whole closet fall down
00:23:50
there and then uh Tuesday night's our
00:23:52
Miami Vice party here are the mock-ups
00:23:56
this is the first time I'm seeing it
00:23:58
yeah it's a little reveal there's a lot
00:24:01
of work the copy I didn't write we're
00:24:03
workshopping it it's just we we got a
00:24:05
little uh what do they call that like a
00:24:07
mood board it's a little bit of a mood
00:24:08
board here is your wet your beaks party
00:24:10
for Sunday night it's gonna be a good
00:24:12
Fellas theme should be a lot of fun it
00:24:15
looks like Good Fellas it looks like
00:24:17
Goodfellas we're gonna keep working on
00:24:19
it uh wet your Beats probably not gonna
00:24:20
be the name of your party but that's
00:24:22
Sunday night and then next up is our
00:24:24
Havana White Party despite all the [ __ ]
00:24:27
you take uh you do such a good job with
00:24:29
this [ __ ] thank you and then we're going
00:24:31
to have this this social club I
00:24:34
apologize but I think this is complete
00:24:36
dog [ __ ] this one the first one supposed
00:24:37
to be Buenavista Social Club you're just
00:24:39
a heathe and you never saw that the
00:24:41
first one is so good this is horrendous
00:24:42
well I don't even know what is this
00:24:44
picture of but it's it's a it's a theme
00:24:46
on the Buena Vista Social Club it's it's
00:24:48
not the right image but we're
00:24:49
workshopping it like I said but yeah
00:24:51
that's gonna be a Havana White Party
00:24:52
everybody's gonna wear linens on Monday
00:24:53
night and that's going to be at a
00:24:55
beautiful space
00:24:57
like I said this is just a designer
00:24:59
coming up with ideas and then of course
00:25:01
we're gonna have our Miami Vice we're
00:25:02
going to rent a couple of um oh that are
00:25:04
like Miami Ventures and so that we are
00:25:07
and so that should be our at 420 Bitcoin
00:25:10
Street your best 80s dress for Miami
00:25:13
Venture so it's gonna be three parties
00:25:15
that is uh that's hot I think it's gonna
00:25:17
be uh three great parties you have to
00:25:20
but everybody's gonna have to get three
00:25:21
great outfits so linens are easy Monday
00:25:23
night Jake out your your thighs look
00:25:25
really big in this photo well this is
00:25:27
fat Jay cow this is not 167 Jacob this
00:25:30
is 198 Jayco on your left leg you can't
00:25:34
tell where your bottom part of the leg
00:25:36
stops because I'm sitting in a stool in
00:25:38
that picture they got but yeah
00:25:40
but it's like you have no knee it's just
00:25:42
like one big shank like yeah well you
00:25:44
know what it's when you're fat and you
00:25:46
got fat suits you know everything's
00:25:48
listen I'm looking at pictures of myself
00:25:50
why didn't you guys fat shame me more
00:25:51
that's the question I have you guys
00:25:54
should have been good
00:25:55
you really look incredible and then
00:25:57
yesterday when I saw you I was like holy
00:25:59
[ __ ] this guy looks really fantastic
00:26:01
look there's no knee there it's just
00:26:02
there's no name it's like a snake it's
00:26:04
like big shank you know what when you're
00:26:05
a fat guy you get fat suits you just try
00:26:07
to you know and now I'm having to
00:26:09
rebound look at that fat face zoom out
00:26:12
oh my God zoom out zoom out look
00:26:14
terrible flat hair
00:26:16
looking nice no you look good I look
00:26:18
fabulous let's go with this one let's go
00:26:21
with this you look great yeah we're
00:26:23
gonna redo mine I want all the photos
00:26:24
done of Vin Jay cow for the inspiration
00:26:27
don't no double chin what are you doing
00:26:28
you work for me okay
00:26:31
where's my neck now I got a neck again I
00:26:35
found my neck everybody there you have
00:26:36
it folks so uh I'm sorry if you did not
00:26:38
get into the all in Summit but we've got
00:26:40
a great lineup of speakers and events
00:26:43
planned no press because well we have
00:26:47
the same distribution but we will the
00:26:49
Press will be able to see all the talks
00:26:51
so all the talks will come out post
00:26:52
event on the all-in feed so for the 10
00:26:55
days after the island feed you're going
00:26:56
to get a show every day and who are our
00:26:58
confirmed speakers at this point oh my
00:27:00
Lord so many good ones hold on let me
00:27:01
pull it up here Keith of a boy
00:27:04
Palmer lucky is coming uh oh good so
00:27:07
that's confirmed that's awesome yeah we
00:27:08
got that confirmed he's a big fan of
00:27:10
Saxy Pooh the new website's up by the
00:27:13
way and it looks beautiful wow look at
00:27:14
this so we have uh Ryan Peterson uh Nate
00:27:18
silver Brad gerstner uh Claire uh vickel
00:27:21
who is amazing uh Mar hershon Palmer
00:27:24
lucky Keith raboy Joe Lawrence oh you
00:27:26
got Antonio to want to speak Antonio is
00:27:29
now coming out of a shell Antonio Garcia
00:27:31
Martinez
00:27:33
you should get um we should get some
00:27:35
foreign policy folks too I mean well if
00:27:38
you guys wanted to do any [ __ ] work
00:27:40
you could help me out here
00:27:42
I thought this was just a grift you were
00:27:44
doing I didn't know it was serious now I
00:27:46
mean I may have to help yeah no you're
00:27:48
going to be proud of this well here's
00:27:49
the thing that I'm going to be most
00:27:50
proud of is the format I have come up
00:27:52
with a new concept of a format I came up
00:27:55
with a theme question that people can
00:27:57
choose to answer or not but the problem
00:27:59
I want to solve and it could be the
00:28:01
problem I most want to solve it could be
00:28:02
the problem I want to see solve the
00:28:04
problem I'm thinking about people will
00:28:06
go up in most cases and give a 10 to 20
00:28:08
minute call it a Ted style talk a solo
00:28:10
dolo talk where they kind of talk about
00:28:13
what they're working on in their lives
00:28:14
then they come and sit
00:28:16
in a chair with two besties on either
00:28:18
side and then the four of us engage them
00:28:21
in a conversation while we're talking
00:28:23
we're gonna have maybe five slides that
00:28:25
producers will put together of data
00:28:27
points Etc so we all get educated we
00:28:29
pull up the slide and then there'll be
00:28:31
you know 600 people in the auditorium
00:28:33
100 people in the simulcast room we will
00:28:35
take one question from the audience or
00:28:37
two questions if we have time with each
00:28:38
segment and so you're going to get a lot
00:28:41
of bestie action but stimulated by
00:28:43
bestie guesty positions and I think this
00:28:46
is really what folks want now if
00:28:48
somebody doesn't want to give one let's
00:28:50
say Palmer just wants to talk well we'll
00:28:52
just talk with Palmer um and so there's
00:28:54
going to be an option I told people you
00:28:56
could your position paper your position
00:28:59
statement could be five minutes it could
00:29:00
be twenty so I want to do something on
00:29:03
uh natural resource scarcity and
00:29:06
National Security so uh Jim latinski the
00:29:08
CEO of MP materials a H you just all you
00:29:11
got to do is email me the person's email
00:29:12
address or introduce me and we'll set it
00:29:14
up so we'll we'll do something on like
00:29:15
the supply chain of like Rare Earth and
00:29:17
lithium nickel and so and then here's my
00:29:19
other idea so I I told everybody that
00:29:21
the problem I'd like to solve there is
00:29:23
energy Independence for America perfect
00:29:24
so then do I still need to email you now
00:29:28
just a moment but here's the thing we're
00:29:29
doing I told that I just I just told you
00:29:31
the yeah we have Nick we'll take a note
00:29:33
yeah
00:29:34
um to remind you
00:29:35
um to get the email addressed here's
00:29:37
what's gonna happen so you don't need me
00:29:38
to email you uh I mean we don't want to
00:29:40
guess the email if you have it and you
00:29:42
know them I mean I know you want to do
00:29:43
the least amount of work but I need to
00:29:45
get a producer's fee here I don't know
00:29:46
you guys got to outvote Freeburg putting
00:29:48
that aside
00:29:50
I'm fine with that too thank you then
00:29:52
three because that's how all in media is
00:29:54
working now it's just going to be votes
00:29:55
well why don't you sign the LLC
00:29:56
agreement did anybody sign it yet I was
00:29:58
going to review it can poison pill
00:30:01
freeberg put in there but I'm not
00:30:03
signing this [ __ ] till I have two
00:30:04
lawyers look at all the Freebirds got a
00:30:06
poison pill in there I don't know about
00:30:07
you guys but I just signed any random
00:30:08
DocuSign
00:30:10
you know I wanna speak you know here we
00:30:13
go in the last 30 days yeah so I'd like
00:30:16
to get I'd like to get professor John
00:30:18
meersheimer to speak he's uh that'd be
00:30:20
great yeah he's a professor at the
00:30:22
University of Chicago he's been there 40
00:30:23
years he's the leading
00:30:25
he's a leading theorist you could say of
00:30:28
the school of thought called realism oh
00:30:31
yeah and foreign policy and he has a
00:30:34
track record of being right about all of
00:30:37
America's foreign policies
00:30:39
right yeah so he's the guy who talked
00:30:42
about it exactly what do they call that
00:30:44
the mono dual try
00:30:47
more
00:30:48
nucleosis multipolar you're beautiful
00:30:52
he has a critique he has a critique of
00:30:55
liberal interventionism which has been
00:30:56
the dominant fantastic foreign policy
00:30:58
since the end of the Cold War it's what
00:31:00
got us into Iraq Afghanistan Syria Libya
00:31:02
he predicted all those things to be
00:31:04
fiascos he also predicted that our
00:31:06
policy of constructive engagement
00:31:07
towards China would ultimately backfire
00:31:09
and be a disaster and he has a very
00:31:12
contrarian critique right now of our
00:31:15
policy in Ukraine that's gone viral yes
00:31:17
on Twitter and it's gotten like 10
00:31:21
million plus views he'd be an incredible
00:31:23
person to to come speak well here's
00:31:25
what's happened while we invite people
00:31:27
you know we we invite some people they
00:31:29
don't know the shall we knew other
00:31:30
people and they're like oh my God I love
00:31:32
the show I'm there what's going to be
00:31:34
interesting is the next 30 days we're
00:31:36
going to talk to each person about what
00:31:37
they what topic they really want to you
00:31:39
know double click on and then we get a
00:31:41
pair people so you might have teeth for
00:31:43
a boy and Antonio you know you might
00:31:45
have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale ever and
00:31:48
so hopefully we can find a little
00:31:49
Dynamic maybe people don't agree maybe
00:31:51
they have you know opposite positions
00:31:53
and then we're going to then have this
00:31:55
great Socratic dialogue with everybody
00:31:57
and I think it's going to be a very fast
00:31:59
paced type thing and then hopefully the
00:32:01
speakers sit in the VIP area
00:32:04
and then I'm going to have a runner
00:32:06
there with a microphone or I might do it
00:32:07
myself so you know I might have Keith
00:32:09
for boy on in the morning in the
00:32:10
afternoon he might want to chime in on
00:32:12
Joe lonsdale's talk I run up to him with
00:32:14
a microphone Etc so we got probably
00:32:17
we're gonna do two hours in the morning
00:32:19
three hours in the afternoon so it's 10
00:32:21
to 12 so you can sleep in or come for
00:32:23
coffee if we stay late playing poker
00:32:25
every night it's going to be a gentle
00:32:27
wake up 12 to 2 is a nice lunch healthy
00:32:30
three to five nice con I'm sorry two to
00:32:33
five three hours of nice content then
00:32:35
you get a little break you go to the
00:32:37
parties at the end of the parties you
00:32:38
never know a poker table or two might be
00:32:39
pulled out and we play a little cash
00:32:40
game who knows anything's possible so
00:32:43
poker could be all three nights I don't
00:32:44
know you know this depends on the
00:32:46
degeneracy level
00:32:47
um but I think it's gonna be a fun time
00:32:49
I'm just asking nobody go ham on Sunday
00:32:53
or Monday night please Tuesday night you
00:32:56
wanna have a little extra curricula you
00:32:58
want to go a little late Davey
00:33:00
that's fine
00:33:03
I want everybody in bed by midnight
00:33:05
Sunday night Monday night no crazy all
00:33:08
right so what are the dates to sing
00:33:09
again
00:33:12
okay it's Sunday Monday Tuesday Sunday
00:33:15
Monday of what of what uh May 15 16 17.
00:33:19
okay oh my God oh my God oh my God what
00:33:22
a [ __ ] show
00:33:23
so many speakers out there it's in a
00:33:26
month it isn't yes that's why I'm
00:33:28
busting my ass on this okay uh Jake All
00:33:30
I'm gonna introduce you to letinski so
00:33:32
we can uh and if anybody we could use a
00:33:35
couple more female speakers people of
00:33:37
color I'm really trying to keep it
00:33:38
diverse and have a lot of range of
00:33:39
speakers a lot of uh David Stan said yes
00:33:42
early you got the Joe Lonsdale should
00:33:44
get Keith or boys they all like want to
00:33:45
support
00:33:46
David's team I could use a couple people
00:33:48
maybe with the posing viewpoints so
00:33:50
we're trying to keep it a little white
00:33:51
Bari Weiss may come we're trying to work
00:33:53
on bar oh that's good yeah we should go
00:33:55
we can't make it I wanted to have Bari
00:33:57
and Kara Swisher it doesn't seem like
00:33:58
that oil and vinegar is going to happen
00:33:59
can we uh can we get Glenn Greenwald but
00:34:03
that's right right you're getting you're
00:34:05
getting further further to the road what
00:34:06
I would like to have is somebody
00:34:08
that's another kind of right guy I would
00:34:11
like your definitions off Jason these
00:34:14
definitions don't mean anything anymore
00:34:15
okay they're independent critical
00:34:16
thinkers
00:34:17
they originally came from the left
00:34:19
they're not like huge fans of unbridled
00:34:21
capitalism but they're more on the
00:34:23
populist side
00:34:27
I would appreciate it particularly Peter
00:34:30
Thiel who's the you're the one person
00:34:31
who can deliver it since you guys are
00:34:33
besties
00:34:35
bring us Peter Thiel the guy spoke at a
00:34:38
goddamn all right give me give me a list
00:34:39
I'll invite Glenn I'll invite taibi I'll
00:34:42
invite Peter oh great audience we could
00:34:45
have a protest outside
00:34:47
these are the most interesting people
00:34:49
exactly Peter teal is the most
00:34:50
interesting for sure I like Mike taibi
00:34:53
actually I'll give you that here's the
00:34:54
problem here's the problem here's the
00:34:57
problem with getting the people on the
00:34:58
other side is that the people on the
00:35:00
other side again it's not right versus
00:35:02
left anymore it's sort of populist
00:35:03
versus elitist and you already know what
00:35:05
all the elitists are going to say and
00:35:07
they're too afraid to be on stage with
00:35:09
people on the other side but I mean I
00:35:10
think that you're associated with Peter
00:35:13
Thiel it is a little bit charged and
00:35:14
triggering for certain people that's huh
00:35:16
yeah exactly that's why they don't they
00:35:18
don't believe me I mean that's they
00:35:19
don't I mean people are like how could
00:35:20
you be friends with David I'm like
00:35:21
because we love each other we're friends
00:35:23
like we're besties and they're like well
00:35:25
but you disagree it's contamination by
00:35:28
association but that's okay that's I
00:35:31
mean David that's what they're trying to
00:35:32
do to me right now I'm getting the back
00:35:33
Channel how could you do this with David
00:35:34
sacks and I'm like because he's my best
00:35:36
friend that's why that is popular is we
00:35:39
have four people who are friends who
00:35:41
sometimes disagree with each other the
00:35:42
reason you can't create the show any
00:35:44
more friends right I'm not giving up my
00:35:47
friendship with David the reason you
00:35:48
can't create the show anywhere else is
00:35:50
because those people think they get
00:35:52
contaminated if they even have a
00:35:54
conversation with somebody on the other
00:35:56
side of things
00:35:57
but you don't get that on your side
00:35:59
correct you and saying because we're in
00:36:03
electricity we're intellectually
00:36:05
confident we don't believe in shutting
00:36:06
down the debate right we believe in free
00:36:08
speech the other side they're
00:36:11
authoritarian yes because they can't
00:36:13
defend anything they just cancel people
00:36:16
they've lost the art of persuasion
00:36:18
I think they've given up their position
00:36:21
would be they've given up trying to
00:36:22
reach you you just don't get it they've
00:36:24
given up trying to reach you and I'm
00:36:25
like don't give up put up a fight if you
00:36:28
disagree with saxophone
00:36:30
it's not about reaching me it's about
00:36:32
reaching all of them yes all the people
00:36:34
out there watch the debate they don't
00:36:36
want to engage the baby because they
00:36:38
can't win the debate because they don't
00:36:39
know how to pursue
00:36:41
is
00:36:44
cancel people
00:36:48
and I own you half the time okay if he's
00:36:51
good I think so January 6th we're gonna
00:36:54
release the January 16th tape
00:36:58
you're like MSNBC that's all you got
00:37:01
we'll let your winners ride
00:37:04
rain man
00:37:09
we open source it to the fans and
00:37:12
they've just gone crazy
00:37:13
[Music]
00:37:18
besties
00:37:24
[Music]
00:37:36
it's like this like sexual tension that
00:37:38
they just need to release them out there
00:37:45
we need to get Mercies
00:37:50
[Music]
