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all right what oh I'm doing this again all right listen it's a two-parter you listen to the first part now this is the
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second part episode 76.5 if you will this is our first ever two-parter part two of our two-parter you already
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listened to part one of episode 76 that's Elon and Twitter lots of details there and now we're gonna cover some
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more topics including the global food crisis China's plan to stockpile a bunch of food geopolitics while Around the
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Horn French election Germany Etc and then we'll go into details about a little bit of the drama and details
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pageanty parties poker all the good stuff of the all-in summon coming soon okay enjoy the show
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everybody [Music] [Music] there's uh still a war raging but uh I wanted to get an update from Friedberg
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on the food crisis which he um predicted very early for a lot further fertilizer prices are still
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climbing like crazy there's been some food rioting in China which I think is a separate issue Hill
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educate us in a minute Sri Lanka so what is your theory of what we're going to do from here Friedberg because
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I think we're all waiting for this shoe to drop and I think you predicted this is something that we would experience
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into the fall and into next year so when are we going to actually see these food riots occurring and then as China's
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food rights have anything to do with this or does that have to do with a yeah I would put the Chinese food riots as
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kind of a separate localized supply chain problem related to the lockdowns got it but we're definitely uh you know
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I think I mentioned last week the USDA planting report showing in the U.S how acreage is being reduced on corn and
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and and we're seeing this around the world where acres are coming out of production or less fertilizers being
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used which means Less Foods being made so everything that we predicted I mean this is a slow train a Titanic into the
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iceberg that we're watching right now and it's going to continue for nine to 18 months
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so you know one of the questions that people are now asking which I said you know would become a really critical next
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step in this crisis is how are we going to bridge the gap in calories where is the food going to come from
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and how are we going to feed Nations that are almost entirely dependent on Imports that are running out of food or
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out of food so I've mentioned this in the past the whole world runs on a 90-day food supply which means roughly
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25 percent of the world's calories are in storage right now but that's not the case uniformly so some countries like
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Tunisia and Somalia Ethiopia have close to zero calories in storage some countries
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um like uh the United States are roughly you know 30 40 percent of our you know annual consumed calories are sitting in
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storage China is a complete outlier for yours China has been stockpiling food and at this point china has a hundred
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and fifty percent of their annual consumption of food in storage so they have supplies that if all food
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production and imports stopped in China they would be able to feed their population for one and a half years
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that's an incredible supply of food so as you look around the world to places like Sri Lanka and places like like
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Somalia that are struggling to figure out how are we going to bridge this gap on calories that's about to hit us
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Egypt's about four months of food by the way and Egypt is dwindling they cannot get the food
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um Out of the Black Sea so China is going to be one of the very few potential solutions for Bridging the
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calorie Gap over the next year and I have a strong prediction and a strong belief that because of that China
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will use it to maximal leverage and we will see over the next year an incredible amount of Leverage and power
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being accumulated by China because of transactions that they're going to start to enter into to bridge the calorie Gap
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around the world so in the Horn of Africa for example there has been this continuous presence of China trying to
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give themselves a military base trying to take a um some influence over local media and there's been this kind of push
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and pull with the you know certain populations around whether or not we should kind of embrace China locally and
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I think that for example the the food crisis that we're seeing emerge in Ethiopia Somalia Eritrea Djibouti is
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going to be resolved by China and China is going to end up gaining influence gaining military presence and
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establishing a more permanent foothold in the Horn of Africa because of the position that they're in of strength
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with all these calories and the and the need in these regions that's not just there Sri Lanka
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other parts of Southeast Asia even Western Africa Northern Africa China is going to show up and they're
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the only country that can show up the U.N the world food program they're going to do everything they can to shuffle
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calories around change Food Supplies but I do think that one of the things that everyone's going to be watching and it's
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it's a slow roll this isn't going to be some one big deal and everyone wakes up over the next year while the U.S is you
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know trying to do everything we can to maximally imposed sanctions on Russia China is slowly turning the crank around
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the world on the influence that they are going to gain because of this food crisis and the absolute
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um uh you know Surplus that they have locally and the ability to export that Surplus to support needs around the
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world and it's not going to be free it's not going to be cheap so I thought it was worth highlighting what we're seeing
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and I shared a couple of articles with you guys and with Nick articles that no one is paying attention to and this
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isn't some conspiratorial oh my God there's some dangerous thing happening I'm just pointing out one of the things
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that's happening as we talk about you know the great change in power the shift in power globally that's happening it is
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happening in a very significant way this year given the Surplus that China has the dirt that many countries have and
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the inability for the U.S to really adequately respond to the food crisis that that's emerging
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um and so I thought it was worth bringing to everyone's attention there's a lot of little articles that support
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this point I shared them with you guys you guys can put them in the show notes and and put them up on YouTube and
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whatever um but I think this is going to become a macro Trend that we're going to wake up
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to in six to nine months and be like whoa what the heck happened you know how how did China get so much leverage
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around the world and it's it's starting now that's what happens with every war you
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know we all we go in hot you know we it's you know raw raw we're all gung-ho and then at some point in time we're
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like wait a second why do we do that you know and you know and look there's no shortage of of neocons and liberal
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interventionists who are all saying this war is wonderful for us because it's reunited the American Alliance and the
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Western Alliance and that this has been this war is a good thing for us let's keep it going let's bleed Russia let's
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topple Putin let's deep stabilizer regime they're in favor of protracted conflict that I've been you know warning
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against and what Friedberg is saying is the longer this conflict goes on the more of these disaster scenarios are
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going to materialize what are you what is your take on how crippled Putin is right now David just
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objectively and again you're not a fan of Putin is the ship like I mean this does not
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look good for him um it feels like he can't and he's losing all his tanks I mean this seems like I
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don't know anything you don't know in terms of you know I'm just a consumer of information but I tend to think that we
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are overly optimistic in the west and look the war's clearly gone very bad for Putin but this idea that everything that
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magically we're going to get regime change in Moscow we're gonna get Gorbachev 2.0
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that that is that is an objective worth protracting this war for uh I tend to think it's going to be a mistake I mean
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that that's now doesn't mean I support Russia's Invasion I've said it's illegal it's a crime it's
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a violation of international law it's a humanitarian disaster but what I've supported is a is a uh negotiated piece
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a settlement that we try to get as quickly as possible that is clearly not the administration's position on this
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they want to keep this thing going and you know this idea that that a long war is good for America's alliances I would
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disagree with that because you're already seeing all over the world now people are starting to object to
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American policy you saw it with India and India is the world's largest democracy they should be on our side
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they definitely should not be on China's side because they have a huge they're not late intention but
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China and India are both de facto on Russia Asylum than this Africa and large parts of Latin America
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India would like to have oil they would like to maintain their relationship with Russia and they did
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not support the denunciation of Russia they would like to see this conflict and large parts of Africa would like to see
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it end Latin America basically all the victims uh if there's a famine in the world in six months like Friedberg is
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saying they are all very worried about this all of them have expressed concern with the American policy which seems to
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be to protract this war okay Freeburg you have to go do your talk at Berkeley congratulations and we'll see you next
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time thanks for the contribution Tremont any thoughts on the um CPI we set a record that seemed to have gotten
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lost in the the haze of Twitter I learned something really interesting that I just wanted to share with you
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guys um so there was a big CPI print obviously but there was a report probably not many people read it
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but it was about uh home equity and the takeaway was that since 2020 Americans have taken to 430 I think the
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exact number is 427. 427 billion dollars of home equity out of their homes and effectively spent it
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so what it what it started to make me think about was if you look at all of that home equity plus the stemi checks
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plus the unemployment insurance checks that starts to explain I think why the labor markets are so tight and why
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people haven't gone back to work they are just no motivation because there's just so much money sloshing around for
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them to basically not have to be forced to do any of this stuff that they don't want to anymore
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and I think the the thing to keep in mind is like that's also what's gone into the stock market it's also what's
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Driven up the price of used cars new cars all of the stuff I just think that kind of like starts to
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paint a picture of CPI that's really important which is that it's probably a little bit more transitory
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than we may actually think because when you exhaust all of that extra money there's not as much inflation to be had
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and I think most people are now forecasting that inflation is really going to taper off and the big warning
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sign that everybody is sort of you know marching towards is you know too many excessive rate hikes between now and the
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end of the year could actually push us into a real recession and we were talking about that before but the
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probability is now sort of like one in three whereas before I think you know David and I sounded a little bit crazy
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when we were talking about it so I just wanted to put that out there as something I learned this week that I
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thought was really important participation rate peaked at 67 68 percent but half a trillion dollars I mean half
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a trillion dollars of actual spending in the economy that's a ton of money to be
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absorbed right if people have a couple of hundred grand in their bank account who own homes or whatever there's no
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need to go back to a job and if you don't feel safe because you maybe still have some coveted fears you don't want
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to commute or you're just out of the Rhythm for two years and you're like I'm kind of enjoying skiing or whatever
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you're doing whatever your jam is maybe there's no there's no rush to get back you'll wait
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until you you'll wait until you exhaust all of that yeah this is a this is and then we're not as
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we talked about we're not letting people into the country at the same time so you
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still have 10 million job openings if that flips that would be economic activity that would be helpful in
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flighting fighting against a recession correct I mean I I think that that we're probably going to have a a quarter or
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two contraction it's probably going to happen sort of at the late end of this year beginning of
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next year just the real question is how how high are rates between now and then and again I think the setup isn't very
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good which is that the investors in the stock market are playing chicken with the fed and you
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know they're just at the beginning of a rate cycle and they haven't been able to
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impact any real forms of liquidity in the equity Market and so I think they're gonna they're going to attack that and
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the only blunt force instrument they have is rates and so you know you could see rates of three three and a half
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percent and that's going to impact a lot of stuff and the problem is that you know uh it's going to be after the
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economy has slowed down because it's going to be after a lot of these you know fake savings if you will um
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have been depleted yeah well we're seeing some pressure come off as well the car shortage is kind of ending
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and wages have raised so that it seems like they're in in this you know Confluence of events certain
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things are starting to work themselves out are you hey can I tell you something else I was I was in Washington uh this
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week the number of people that listen to our pod it is incredible people in Washington care about our
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views on politics it's incredible I've heard that feedback too yeah it's really really really special we've we've
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stumbled into something pretty cool and the fact that it's like must it's it's it's uh it's must listening it's must
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listen it's like a Sunday weekly show you just get a different perspective from the tech sector and capital
00:14:02
allocators that maybe you don't get on us you know beat the press or something yeah but just to follow up on that
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inflation point the economic Point Jason if I can so please so look the main reason inflation is
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going to go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year-over-year basis and
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you remember about a year ago is when inflation started but you know around this time last year inflation was only
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two and a half percent then it reached five percent by the summer then by the end of the year was almost eight percent
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so as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate we come up against you know you're copying against uh 7.8
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number last year so I don't think inflation's going to get any better we're probably looking at roughly a 12
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percent you know official two-year inflation number so in other words since Biden took over as president you're
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looking at probably 12 to 13 percent of total inflation as measured by CPI and that is why even though the headline
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number will come down later this year I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the
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situation you can almost predict that gen sake or whoever replaces her at the podium at the White House briefing room
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they're going to be touting these lower inflation numbers at the end of the year
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but it doesn't mean price levels will have decreased prices will still be very high when people go to the grocery store
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they buy meat or bread or what have you it's going to be very expensive and I don't think people are going to be
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feeling better off and there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this
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Administration and also I think it's going to impact consumption I mean if you're going to a gas station and you I
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mean I drove the minivan to LA and it's the only electric it's only non-electric car we have we happen to
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drive it because we had a number of people that was bigger than the X and uh it was like shocking to buy seven
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dollar gasoline and obviously I can uh would stand you know filling up but I could see people saying you know what
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maybe I'm not going to make that incremental trip or you know you start looking at some of the prices yeah you
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know for taking a trip or flights I don't know if you've looked at flights or hotels like things are starting to
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creep up that it's like super noticeable and that's got to affect consumption and
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then that what would be what would be part of those negative two quarters right shamath I mean the role of people
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stopping consuming and just saying you know what yeah it's too expensive right now just I'll stay at home and watch
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Netflix [ __ ] it you know I'll cook pasta tonight you see that happening already
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yeah people are starting to balance the balance sheet just looking at the balance sheet and saying you know what
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what's a way I can you know cut some expensive items off the you know I'll ride a bike they're going to take less
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travel because you know the cost of airline tickets have gone up because the cost of the jet fuel has gone up it all
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it all ripples through the economy um but I think the thing is that when when the FED gets involved though they
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get involved in you know in a Brute Force way let me make a prediction right now if we're we're definitely headed
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into an economic slowdown I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession but very high negative
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quarters of growth yeah you know very high chance I think of recession like jamas said towards the end of the year
00:17:05
if this war is still going on and we get in a recession Look Out Below I think this President will be in Jimmy Carter
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territory he began the year at 38 that was in reasonably good conditions of Peace time if you know and I tweeted at
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the beginning of the year in January I said that you know this is you know you're at 38 that's with peace and
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prosperity Look Out Below if we get recession and War that's what it's looking like right now so um you know I
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think this is things are looking pretty pretty dire which is why I keep saying it you know the policy this
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Administration should be to try and find a settlement to the situation in Ukraine
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to this War I know that we didn't start it Putin started it let's be clear but if there's an off-ramp here we should be
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seizing it because we got real problems back home in America and the administration should be focused on our
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economy and our problems Europe is going to be the canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think
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they feel this uh pretty severely and I think there's a a lot of exhaustion amongst European governments and leaders
00:18:06
when you start to listen to this rhetoric to kind of you know find a way to end what's going on over there because the
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they're gonna see a pretty meaningful recession I think yeah absolutely much more much more so
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than we will yeah and if you look if you look right now what's happening in France Marine Le Pen is surging
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unbelievable against macron I don't know if she's going to pull off the upset but
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one of the major pillars well actually here's what she's running on she is saying that she has been focused on
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inflation and cost of living and she says macron has been distracted by being America's basically lap dog puppet
00:18:43
whatever on Ukraine so she's saying we need to focus on the French economy and she's also saying that we as France
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should set our own follower policy and not be so differential to the U.S she says that this protracted war in Ukraine
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and all this hot rhetoric coming out of the bite Administration about war crimes
00:19:00
and destabilizing Putin and toppling him and putting him on trial at the hay that
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is not in French interest that's what the Americans want to do but it's not what we should be wanting to do we need
00:19:09
to end this war and I'm not ready to say she's going to pull off the upside yet but she is clearly articulating that
00:19:15
message because she is finding purchase with the French electorate based on that
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message and you're going to hear that if this war continues for three months and
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six months and Europe goes into recession you're going to start hearing uh politicians all over the European
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continent saying the same thing and questioning American leadership and why are they are dragging this thing out the
00:19:34
the thing that's the scariest thing about the French election and I'm not sure how many Americans uh
00:19:41
paid attention to it but just to maybe summarize in a very quick nutshell you actually had this really interesting
00:19:46
Dynamic of three candidates one was what would be considered far left uh Jean-Luc Menasha one far right
00:19:56
marrying Le Pen and then one that was very Centrist Emmanuel Metro and what's crazy is both of these two were you know
00:20:05
22 plus percent of all of the votes it was just that Le Pen and macron were one and two and so they go into a runoff
00:20:14
election and you know malshawn was very clear he was like under no circumstance should any of my supporters vote for Le
00:20:21
Pen but it just shows you what's happening which is like France which is you know
00:20:29
sort of coming undone under this populist fight um is probably uh a canary in the coal
00:20:36
mine for how this stuff could play out in other places and it's kind of scary it'd be interesting to see what happens
00:20:41
in Germany as well as they look at this enabling of they were able to hold the line they you know they still have a
00:20:47
center right government but you know in Austria for a while that wasn't the case
00:20:51
in Hungary it's not really the case um so there's a lot of countries at least in the Eastern Bloc of of Europe
00:20:58
where you've you've seen a tip in One Direction or the other um it's not unreasonable to think of
00:21:03
that in France it could tip in One Direction or the other fortunately in the UK or unfortunately however you look
00:21:09
at it it's still really a two-party system um for the most part I think so I don't know we're in a really uh
00:21:17
precarious moment in world history I think yeah by the way I want to talk about one
00:21:23
thing that I talked at the end of last year I talked about just a very random thing
00:21:26
um about you know uh visa and MasterCard and how you could short them um or you know like basically like the
00:21:33
payment networks we're gonna start to get you know dismantled this year it's really interesting to see I don't
00:21:40
know if you guys have been really paying attention to all the activity that's been happening in payments over like the
00:21:45
last literally 90 days I think has been really incredible up into you know just today you know visa and MasterCard I
00:21:53
think are doing the single dumbest thing they could do by being a duopoly which is Raising prices especially into an
00:21:59
inflationary moment which just lacks complete knowledge and sensitivity of the moment so damp economic activity but
00:22:07
also creates the incentives for disruption sure right because then the gap between you and your next Killer's
00:22:13
competitor becomes more obvious and again in capitalism you compete away these advantages and I just think that
00:22:19
uh the setup is becoming more and more obvious for the shift in payments I just think it's quite interesting so Dick
00:22:25
Durbin actually today basically is going to create a big you know hubbub in the Senate around these increasing Merchant
00:22:30
fees which will eventually spill over to Consumers there's some talk that you know uh I I
00:22:36
what is it called zelly uh is that how you pronounce it zelly the the the the the inner Bank payment system people
00:22:43
were talking about them converting that to becoming a more substantive payment system and then this week
00:22:48
I was able to see a little bit under the hood of you know Solana pay and that's really exciting so it's all
00:22:57
coming I think like uh it's like a swarm of activity uh to dismantle these payments businesses I just wanted to
00:23:03
just give the 90-day update from our from our discussion in January all right everybody uh we will see you may 15th
00:23:10
16th and 17th in Miami for the first all in Summit now sold out no more tickets available there's a waitlist but we're
00:23:17
not going to be able to get to anybody on it sorry you can sign up and we'll make sure you know about next year if
00:23:21
there is a next year this might be a one and done kind of situation three amazing
00:23:25
parties Sunday night is our poker tournament for charity the top uh it's gonna be a sit and go format if you win
00:23:31
your sit and go you go into a sit and go bake off and then you get to sit at the
00:23:36
final table with the four besties the winners are going to get to make a donation to the charity of their choice
00:23:41
uh paid for by the besties and Sunday night's party will be the Goodfellas party Monday is going to be the Havana
00:23:47
White Party bring your linen sacks I know you got a whole closet fall down there and then uh Tuesday night's our
00:23:52
Miami Vice party here are the mock-ups this is the first time I'm seeing it yeah it's a little reveal there's a lot
00:24:01
of work the copy I didn't write we're workshopping it it's just we we got a little uh what do they call that like a
00:24:07
mood board it's a little bit of a mood board here is your wet your beaks party for Sunday night it's gonna be a good
00:24:12
Fellas theme should be a lot of fun it looks like Good Fellas it looks like Goodfellas we're gonna keep working on
00:24:19
it uh wet your Beats probably not gonna be the name of your party but that's Sunday night and then next up is our
00:24:24
Havana White Party despite all the [ __ ] you take uh you do such a good job with
00:24:29
this [ __ ] thank you and then we're going to have this this social club I apologize but I think this is complete
00:24:36
dog [ __ ] this one the first one supposed to be Buenavista Social Club you're just
00:24:39
a heathe and you never saw that the first one is so good this is horrendous well I don't even know what is this
00:24:44
picture of but it's it's a it's a theme on the Buena Vista Social Club it's it's
00:24:48
not the right image but we're workshopping it like I said but yeah that's gonna be a Havana White Party
00:24:52
everybody's gonna wear linens on Monday night and that's going to be at a beautiful space
00:24:57
like I said this is just a designer coming up with ideas and then of course we're gonna have our Miami Vice we're
00:25:02
going to rent a couple of um oh that are like Miami Ventures and so that we are and so that should be our at 420 Bitcoin
00:25:10
Street your best 80s dress for Miami Venture so it's gonna be three parties that is uh that's hot I think it's gonna
00:25:17
be uh three great parties you have to but everybody's gonna have to get three great outfits so linens are easy Monday
00:25:23
night Jake out your your thighs look really big in this photo well this is fat Jay cow this is not 167 Jacob this
00:25:30
is 198 Jayco on your left leg you can't tell where your bottom part of the leg stops because I'm sitting in a stool in
00:25:38
that picture they got but yeah but it's like you have no knee it's just like one big shank like yeah well you
00:25:44
know what it's when you're fat and you got fat suits you know everything's listen I'm looking at pictures of myself
00:25:50
why didn't you guys fat shame me more that's the question I have you guys should have been good
00:25:55
you really look incredible and then yesterday when I saw you I was like holy [ __ ] this guy looks really fantastic
00:26:01
look there's no knee there it's just there's no name it's like a snake it's like big shank you know what when you're
00:26:05
a fat guy you get fat suits you just try to you know and now I'm having to rebound look at that fat face zoom out
00:26:12
oh my God zoom out zoom out look terrible flat hair looking nice no you look good I look
00:26:18
fabulous let's go with this one let's go with this you look great yeah we're gonna redo mine I want all the photos
00:26:24
done of Vin Jay cow for the inspiration don't no double chin what are you doing you work for me okay
00:26:31
where's my neck now I got a neck again I found my neck everybody there you have it folks so uh I'm sorry if you did not
00:26:38
get into the all in Summit but we've got a great lineup of speakers and events planned no press because well we have
00:26:47
the same distribution but we will the Press will be able to see all the talks so all the talks will come out post
00:26:52
event on the all-in feed so for the 10 days after the island feed you're going to get a show every day and who are our
00:26:58
confirmed speakers at this point oh my Lord so many good ones hold on let me pull it up here Keith of a boy
00:27:04
Palmer lucky is coming uh oh good so that's confirmed that's awesome yeah we got that confirmed he's a big fan of
00:27:10
Saxy Pooh the new website's up by the way and it looks beautiful wow look at this so we have uh Ryan Peterson uh Nate
00:27:18
silver Brad gerstner uh Claire uh vickel who is amazing uh Mar hershon Palmer lucky Keith raboy Joe Lawrence oh you
00:27:26
got Antonio to want to speak Antonio is now coming out of a shell Antonio Garcia
00:27:31
Martinez you should get um we should get some foreign policy folks too I mean well if
00:27:38
you guys wanted to do any [ __ ] work you could help me out here I thought this was just a grift you were
00:27:44
doing I didn't know it was serious now I mean I may have to help yeah no you're going to be proud of this well here's
00:27:49
the thing that I'm going to be most proud of is the format I have come up with a new concept of a format I came up
00:27:55
with a theme question that people can choose to answer or not but the problem I want to solve and it could be the
00:28:01
problem I most want to solve it could be the problem I want to see solve the problem I'm thinking about people will
00:28:06
go up in most cases and give a 10 to 20 minute call it a Ted style talk a solo dolo talk where they kind of talk about
00:28:13
what they're working on in their lives then they come and sit in a chair with two besties on either
00:28:18
side and then the four of us engage them in a conversation while we're talking we're gonna have maybe five slides that
00:28:25
producers will put together of data points Etc so we all get educated we pull up the slide and then there'll be
00:28:31
you know 600 people in the auditorium 100 people in the simulcast room we will take one question from the audience or
00:28:37
two questions if we have time with each segment and so you're going to get a lot
00:28:41
of bestie action but stimulated by bestie guesty positions and I think this is really what folks want now if
00:28:48
somebody doesn't want to give one let's say Palmer just wants to talk well we'll
00:28:52
just talk with Palmer um and so there's going to be an option I told people you could your position paper your position
00:28:59
statement could be five minutes it could be twenty so I want to do something on uh natural resource scarcity and
00:29:06
National Security so uh Jim latinski the CEO of MP materials a H you just all you
00:29:11
got to do is email me the person's email address or introduce me and we'll set it
00:29:14
up so we'll we'll do something on like the supply chain of like Rare Earth and lithium nickel and so and then here's my
00:29:19
other idea so I I told everybody that the problem I'd like to solve there is energy Independence for America perfect
00:29:24
so then do I still need to email you now just a moment but here's the thing we're
00:29:29
doing I told that I just I just told you the yeah we have Nick we'll take a note
00:29:33
yeah um to remind you um to get the email addressed here's what's gonna happen so you don't need me
00:29:38
to email you uh I mean we don't want to guess the email if you have it and you know them I mean I know you want to do
00:29:43
the least amount of work but I need to get a producer's fee here I don't know you guys got to outvote Freeburg putting
00:29:48
that aside I'm fine with that too thank you then three because that's how all in media is
00:29:54
working now it's just going to be votes well why don't you sign the LLC agreement did anybody sign it yet I was
00:29:58
going to review it can poison pill freeberg put in there but I'm not signing this [ __ ] till I have two
00:30:04
lawyers look at all the Freebirds got a poison pill in there I don't know about you guys but I just signed any random
00:30:08
DocuSign you know I wanna speak you know here we go in the last 30 days yeah so I'd like
00:30:16
to get I'd like to get professor John meersheimer to speak he's uh that'd be great yeah he's a professor at the
00:30:22
University of Chicago he's been there 40 years he's the leading he's a leading theorist you could say of
00:30:28
the school of thought called realism oh yeah and foreign policy and he has a track record of being right about all of
00:30:37
America's foreign policies right yeah so he's the guy who talked about it exactly what do they call that
00:30:44
the mono dual try more nucleosis multipolar you're beautiful he has a critique he has a critique of
00:30:55
liberal interventionism which has been the dominant fantastic foreign policy since the end of the Cold War it's what
00:31:00
got us into Iraq Afghanistan Syria Libya he predicted all those things to be fiascos he also predicted that our
00:31:06
policy of constructive engagement towards China would ultimately backfire and be a disaster and he has a very
00:31:12
contrarian critique right now of our policy in Ukraine that's gone viral yes on Twitter and it's gotten like 10
00:31:21
million plus views he'd be an incredible person to to come speak well here's what's happened while we invite people
00:31:27
you know we we invite some people they don't know the shall we knew other people and they're like oh my God I love
00:31:32
the show I'm there what's going to be interesting is the next 30 days we're going to talk to each person about what
00:31:37
they what topic they really want to you know double click on and then we get a pair people so you might have teeth for
00:31:43
a boy and Antonio you know you might have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale ever and so hopefully we can find a little
00:31:49
Dynamic maybe people don't agree maybe they have you know opposite positions and then we're going to then have this
00:31:55
great Socratic dialogue with everybody and I think it's going to be a very fast paced type thing and then hopefully the
00:32:01
speakers sit in the VIP area and then I'm going to have a runner there with a microphone or I might do it
00:32:07
myself so you know I might have Keith for boy on in the morning in the afternoon he might want to chime in on
00:32:12
Joe lonsdale's talk I run up to him with a microphone Etc so we got probably we're gonna do two hours in the morning
00:32:19
three hours in the afternoon so it's 10 to 12 so you can sleep in or come for coffee if we stay late playing poker
00:32:25
every night it's going to be a gentle wake up 12 to 2 is a nice lunch healthy three to five nice con I'm sorry two to
00:32:33
five three hours of nice content then you get a little break you go to the parties at the end of the parties you
00:32:38
never know a poker table or two might be pulled out and we play a little cash game who knows anything's possible so
00:32:43
poker could be all three nights I don't know you know this depends on the degeneracy level
00:32:47
um but I think it's gonna be a fun time I'm just asking nobody go ham on Sunday or Monday night please Tuesday night you
00:32:56
wanna have a little extra curricula you want to go a little late Davey that's fine
00:33:03
I want everybody in bed by midnight Sunday night Monday night no crazy all right so what are the dates to sing
00:33:09
again okay it's Sunday Monday Tuesday Sunday Monday of what of what uh May 15 16 17.
00:33:19
okay oh my God oh my God oh my God what a [ __ ] show so many speakers out there it's in a
00:33:26
month it isn't yes that's why I'm busting my ass on this okay uh Jake All I'm gonna introduce you to letinski so
00:33:32
we can uh and if anybody we could use a couple more female speakers people of color I'm really trying to keep it
00:33:38
diverse and have a lot of range of speakers a lot of uh David Stan said yes early you got the Joe Lonsdale should
00:33:44
get Keith or boys they all like want to support David's team I could use a couple people
00:33:48
maybe with the posing viewpoints so we're trying to keep it a little white Bari Weiss may come we're trying to work
00:33:53
on bar oh that's good yeah we should go we can't make it I wanted to have Bari and Kara Swisher it doesn't seem like
00:33:58
that oil and vinegar is going to happen can we uh can we get Glenn Greenwald but
00:34:03
that's right right you're getting you're getting further further to the road what
00:34:06
I would like to have is somebody that's another kind of right guy I would like your definitions off Jason these
00:34:14
definitions don't mean anything anymore okay they're independent critical thinkers
00:34:17
they originally came from the left they're not like huge fans of unbridled capitalism but they're more on the
00:34:23
populist side I would appreciate it particularly Peter Thiel who's the you're the one person
00:34:31
who can deliver it since you guys are besties bring us Peter Thiel the guy spoke at a
00:34:38
goddamn all right give me give me a list I'll invite Glenn I'll invite taibi I'll
00:34:42
invite Peter oh great audience we could have a protest outside these are the most interesting people
00:34:49
exactly Peter teal is the most interesting for sure I like Mike taibi actually I'll give you that here's the
00:34:54
problem here's the problem here's the problem with getting the people on the other side is that the people on the
00:35:00
other side again it's not right versus left anymore it's sort of populist versus elitist and you already know what
00:35:05
all the elitists are going to say and they're too afraid to be on stage with people on the other side but I mean I
00:35:10
think that you're associated with Peter Thiel it is a little bit charged and triggering for certain people that's huh
00:35:16
yeah exactly that's why they don't they don't believe me I mean that's they don't I mean people are like how could
00:35:20
you be friends with David I'm like because we love each other we're friends like we're besties and they're like well
00:35:25
but you disagree it's contamination by association but that's okay that's I mean David that's what they're trying to
00:35:32
do to me right now I'm getting the back Channel how could you do this with David
00:35:34
sacks and I'm like because he's my best friend that's why that is popular is we have four people who are friends who
00:35:41
sometimes disagree with each other the reason you can't create the show any more friends right I'm not giving up my
00:35:47
friendship with David the reason you can't create the show anywhere else is because those people think they get
00:35:52
contaminated if they even have a conversation with somebody on the other side of things
00:35:57
but you don't get that on your side correct you and saying because we're in electricity we're intellectually
00:36:05
confident we don't believe in shutting down the debate right we believe in free speech the other side they're
00:36:11
authoritarian yes because they can't defend anything they just cancel people they've lost the art of persuasion
00:36:18
I think they've given up their position would be they've given up trying to reach you you just don't get it they've
00:36:24
given up trying to reach you and I'm like don't give up put up a fight if you disagree with saxophone
00:36:30
it's not about reaching me it's about reaching all of them yes all the people out there watch the debate they don't
00:36:36
want to engage the baby because they can't win the debate because they don't know how to pursue
00:36:41
is cancel people and I own you half the time okay if he's good I think so January 6th we're gonna
00:36:54
release the January 16th tape you're like MSNBC that's all you got we'll let your winners ride
00:37:04
rain man we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] besties
00:37:24
[Music] it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release them out there
00:37:45
we need to get Mercies [Music]