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If I'm asking myself, Chamath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at $2 trillion? Here's
00:00:04
the basic math that I would do. Well, last year it did 18 19 billion dollars. It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year.
00:00:12
Okay. So, I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right? So, what am I buying? Well, I'm buying probably
00:00:21
the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself.
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That's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users. And the reason that's
00:00:28
going to scale to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful and it's just
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going to become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So, that's number one. I'm
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buying a delivery infrastructure. I think over time GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15 kind of a grower. So, good business,
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valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen. And then I'm
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buying an AI business, which will be at the top level the apps, but at the bottom layer all the compute capability.
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So, I suspect what happens is next year it's probably 40 45 billion. And then the year after
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that it probably doubles again, so then I'm buying it at 20 times revenue. And
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you would say, "Well, why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus
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earnings and cash flow?" And I think the reason is because what the revenue does
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is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate
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his differentiation and his competitive moat. Because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a
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technology moat that then accelerates an execution and a learning moat. And that's why we feel when it starts to
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spin very quickly. And you would say, "Hey, hold on a second. It's probably
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spinning quickly now." I would say we're at the beginning of the beginning. He
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still has all these disparate assets. I still don't like the fact that Tesla's
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over here. And as I've told you, that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of
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physical capability, movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z, right? That thing will look very cheap I
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think in a few years. And he has this one thing that nobody else, if you look at the big CEOs, who steps on stage
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where you're always curious, okay, what has he got up his sleeve? You know, the
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Steve Jobs, oh, and one more thing. He's the guy. Whether you like him or you
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hate him, he's the guy. And there's a premium that is well deserved that comes
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with that.