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hey everybody welcome to another all-in podcast
this is an all bestie no guestie episode of all
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in the last time you heard from the besties it
was election night and it was a [ __ ] show a
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[ __ ] crazy [ __ ] show let's be honest i mean we
if we go back and look at that historical document
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we had moments where we thought trump was gonna
absolutely crush then we had moments of confusion
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and now here we are and i think we have to give a
couple of uh bestie kudos to uh first off chamoth
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pointing out pennsylvania was gonna be big and
then second when we went through the possible
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scenarios of who wha what could possibly happen
a big giant blue wave uh trump winning it all and
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then maybe something in the middle option three
came through and that was sexy poo nailed it
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i think that was your assumption saks the soft
landing the soft landing yeah so why don't we just
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for the people who didn't tune in live sorry jason
can i ask you a question sexy poo sexy was that
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your um like projection or was it from that from
that guy who lives in his dad's basement his mouth
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yeah newman uh you and i worked worked together
on on those takes but yeah the the take that we
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thought was was possible but probably unlikely but
could represent a really good scenario was the the
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soft landing where you get a split decision and
i think that's what the american people voted for
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um you know you had the democratic frame on
the election was that we needed a return to normalcy and decency the republican frame was at
the radical left could not be trusted with power
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and voters basically said they were both right
they sort of surgically removed donald trump while
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thwarting the radical left's dream of total
control in washington and what the electorate
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seems to be saying is they want the parties now
to work together instead of voting for extreme ideology but tbd sacks i mean georgia's still up
for grabs they're gonna go after it hard right
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i mean they just they filed in pennsylvania yeah
so i think there's a series of core challenges
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we can talk about i think that they're
unlikely to prevail very very unlikely i think joe biden will be the next president
um we can kind of compare this to you know uh
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bush v gore uh from 2000 and if you you want to
compare trump's case to gore's case it's weaker
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in every respect i mean first of all with bush
v gore uh gore only had to overturn one state
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which was florida whereas trump has to now contest
and overturn three or four states simultaneously
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second you know gore was within a few hundred
votes of bush it was extremely close trump is no closer than about 12 000 votes in in georgia
that's the closest one third you know um gore uh
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or or bush never trailed uh gore in in any in any
recount and um and and trump has that problem that
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he's never um and he he's very far behind gore
as well so you look at those three things and
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you'd say you know gore couldn't overcome it and
he had a closer situation than this and of course
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i'd say finally you know a w had uh the velvet
hammer james baker working for him whereas
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trump frankly has rudy giuliani who's throwing
press conferences in the parking lot of forces and
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landscaping between a dildo shop and a crematorium
uh i mean you can't make this stuff up i think
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somebody was tweeting you know it's
this is perfect because you know they were saying they wanted rudy
to [ __ ] off and die so it was
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so appropriate that this press conference was
held between a dildo shop and a crematorium so
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you know it's not exactly the a team that
trump's got playing for him here in in the courts but i mean david bossie by the way
david bossie who's in charge of the whole thing
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david bosse is not even a lawyer and then he gets
government so now he's on the sidelines i mean
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just there's so many angles we can take here um
including the fact that am i correct that trump's
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campaign advisor got covered like the
day after or he's no no mark meadows staff got it but david bossie who's in charge of
this whole recount process got coveted as well
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okay so i want to just shift us now to
what could have so many things went right
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for the democrats but there was also something
very clear here that happened which is the what
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i call the uh hsp the hysterical socialist party
of america i think was dealt a a death blow if you
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look this was very close and so you know even
if we want to talk about the electoral college
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et cetera these are still very low numbers i
believe if the pfizer news comes out last week
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trump wins or if any combination of aoc by aoc
bernie or warren were in any way involved in this
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election process and weren't pushed to the side
the squad was squashed because we knew that if
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they got any kind of play trump sells into victory
so when we look at what happens going forward
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and i'll i'll let any one of the three of you
take this what does this say about the hysterical
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socialist party the hsp the squad the
bernie bros what does this say about them
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well you have a you have a look you have a
you have a loud group of people on both sides
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and the reality is that both extremes of both
parties actually after this election have very
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little to stand on that's unique because if you
think about what the plurality of americans want
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is actually just a common decent centrist do no
harm alternative and they're going to pick that
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more times than they're not going to pick it
it's only when things get extreme like in 2016 in order to send a message will they do it um and
until it's resolved they tried to do it again now
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so we should actually talk about that i don't
think that this was you know a runaway it was
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way too close on too many dimensions that actually
matter for the future prosperity of america but that being said what does it mean
for the future i think the future is like
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a pete butterjudge must be high-fiving you know
the people in his camp right now because a common
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decent thoughtful centrist uh platform will win
for example like let's just say you believe in
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gay rights guess what you don't need to be at the
fringes to believe in that that's mainstream you believe in like a reasonable form of healthcare
that's mainstream if you believe in climate change
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it's mainstream you start to go and tick off the
things that the extremes would want to believe
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there's very little room for them to stand on
so one party is going to be basically about like a federalized nanny state and the other party will
be a bunch of conspiracy theorists crazies and i
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think it's going to force more and more people to
the middle i think that's the future to me that's that's a much safer place to be than i think
where we could have been if you know trump had
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won or if the extreme left had basically been
um been validated with a candidate that won
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right and i would add to that that the the
proof of that the proof of the elector's desire to attack towards the center is you
look at the down ballot uh elections so you
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know in the senate the republicans are still
holding on to a majority pending the florida um runoff but the the democrats failed to take out
susan collins tom tillis steve daines these were
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three incumbent republicans who were way
behind in the polls heading into election day uh they didn't come close to taking out lindsey
graham or mitch mcconnell despite their names
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gee get out of this one alive explain that
susan collins no lady g lindsey graham oh i see
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you know uh lindsey graham they said that it was
neck and neck and he actually ended up winning that state by like 14 points it wasn't close uh
the polls were wildly off and um and you saw that
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across across the board in the house too democrats
expected a gain of 10 to 15 seats instead they've
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lost about 10 seats they failed to defeat a
single gop incumbent the gop house members ran
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about two or three points ahead of president
trump um and that and then the democrats were
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completely shut out in texas which was supposed
to be going purple there were eight open gop seats democrats won none of them so this you know
so anyway i'm providing some support to the idea
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that this was a split decision election the voters
voted to remove both of the or to voted against
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the extremes of both parties so friedberg when
you look at this you see i think an absolute um
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just people don't want to deal with trump
anymore how much of this do you think is
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trump derangement system as uh syndrome and what
got trump into office eventually taking him out
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which is the guy just takes up too much oxygen in
the room and that's coming from me and the guy is
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just incredibly annoying to have to deal with day
to day that's also coming from you and that's also
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coming from me free burger i i think we've i think
we've been at a rave for four years and everyone's
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like coming down from the mali and you're not
going to go to a marilyn manson concert like right after being in a rave like you want to go
sit in the parking lot and you just want to chill
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out a little bit and we all just want to like have
a beer and relax you know like i mean i think that you need some 5 htp and a banana you just yeah you
you want to go sit in the 7-11 parking lot at four
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in the morning and you want to like go get a [
__ ] sweet cappuccino smoke a cigarette and relax like it's been it's been too much and i think
it's like everyone's just kind of ready to chill
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out a bit and so this whole [ __ ] swinging back
to the you know to the concert across the road sounds just as bad as what we've just been through
so let's just you know let's just live our lives
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a little bit and you know we'll come back in four
years and figure out how to [ __ ] things up again i think that's kind of the psyche that's right i
think i think voters want a presidency they can
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forget about you know i think trump's um sort
of achilles heel as he demanded too much of the
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voters constant time and attention there was like
this psychic cost to it it obviously antagonized the other side and drove turnout for the democrats
but um but it seems like voters are saying look
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just leave us alone we want to just forget about
what's happening in washington for four years and now they can because you know pending the georgia
runoff it looks like you know mitch mcconnell and
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joe biden will have to be in a power sharing
arrangement and nothing gets done unless the two of them agree and by the way just on that
there was a great uh tweet by paul graham he
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said the day after the election something to the
effect of it feels like some background process
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in my computer had was just killed that was
consuming five percent of my cpu and it's and it's
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operating system spinning wheel of death but
it's it's david is so right it's like you know it's been this omnipresent thing in all of
our lives over the last four years and uh
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it's just exhausting and you know there wasn't
that much value that came from paying so much
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attention and worrying so much and so it's just
a great opportunity to come off the sugar high
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and reset ourselves and take a nap i think
that's a various due point chamath in that
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what what it was gained from this trump
derangement from this trump sucking all of the attention and constantly uh tweeting
and you know i think the big win here freeberg is
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if you look the proof is in the pudding trump
we we find out on saturday morning that trump
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is uh you know has lost and biden has won and 48
hours later we find out pfizer has 90 efficacy
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on their vaccine obviously these two things are
highly correlated biden has already delivered the
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vaccine in just 48 hours and then today we got the
rapid testing has been approved by the fda i mean
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look at this by if at this rate biden's going
to cure global warming by the end of the year
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look um first off i i think it's a little um
it is pretty paradoxical that yeah the vaccine
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news came 48 hours yeah and i don't think it's
paradoxical i mean that was crazy i mean you
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know there's supposed to be an october surprise
not a november surprise i think if trump has any legitimate argument about being done dirty in
this election it is over this vaccine news because
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you know the chinese announced that three hours
after bayes declared president pfizer announces it a day after uh bayern's declared president i
mean you know when trump went around this the um
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you know was campaigning saying a vaccine was mere
weeks away everyone thought that was [ __ ] but as it turns out he was telling the truth and if
those guys had announced it jason like you were
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saying two weeks before the election it might have
changed this thing but you guys that might have a hundred percent 100 and this is not something
he can go to the courts it's not like he can
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go to the courts and get the election recounted
overturned because of this so it's not something
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that's legally actionable but i do think that on
this news alone trump in four years will be able
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to claim on some level that this was a stolen
election but couldn't the same be said about hillary's uh email server right so like one night
news came out like oh and it was like timed around
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the election and i do think that there was a
concerted effort to not let um you know the
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progress with kovid get in the way of the election
in any way you know bias it either way and i think
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it's like pretty reasonable and fair to say like
let's just not make this part of the news cycle leading into the election and this was expected
like if you guys go back a couple of podcasts like
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um you had a prediction on when we would have a
vaccine i i think i predicted end of september
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because of the way that they set up the uh the
production cycle in parallel with the testing cycle and the way that they were fast-tracking
a lot of the testing in a way that wasn't normal
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um for this sort of a development and um it was it
was gonna happen this fall if i'm an executive at
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one of these companies i don't want my vaccine to
become a politicized event right like i just want to be like i think it's it's the reasonable thing
to say like let's just put it on hold let's deal
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with it all after the election we're still moving
forward we're not holding anything up in terms of production and getting this thing across the
finish line it's just the announcement of where
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we are so why make that part of the new cycle
you know um and i think like people learned their
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lesson with hillary's server last time it's like
this one used you know bombshell drops in the news
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cycle spins up and she loses the election everyone
blames her losing the election for that coming out no one wants to be culpable for that right
i'm a pfizer exec i'm just trying to make
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[ __ ] medicine like i don't want to be on the
hook for said another way someone's winning or losing an said another way chamoth nobody wants
to go to a warriors finals game versus the lakers
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and have the refs call you know decide
the game in the final couple of minutes so do you think chamoth this is if you were
running pfizer if you were on the board of pfizer
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and you have this information and you know it
can come out in this two-week window at any time
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what decision would you make chamof well
just imagine that the vaccine was 90 ineffective and it was announced two weeks before
the election um you'd have an entire cohort of
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people saying this was meant to basically sabotage
the election in the other direction so the point
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is it's a no-win situation the only answer is to
wait until after the election um because that's
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the only way that you can actually say you know
we were not um we were being impartial so um i'm
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sympathetic to this idea that uh all the news had
to wait two or three days um or maybe it was two
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or three weeks now knowing in advance what the
answer was obviously you can read into that but
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i think even if it was 90 percent ineffective it
should have waited till after the election as well
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exactly i i i just think that i don't get
the sense that you do agree with that saks well let's put this way i mean we we know
from our time working at large companies
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that it takes them weeks to even approve a press
release and so pfizer had this news weeks ago
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now i understand their reason for not wanting
to appear to be influencing the outcome of the
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election so i that's why they held on to it
i think everybody saw the way that facebook
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was scapegoated four years ago for
the election and no one wants to no corporation wants to put themselves in
that position of being accused of affecting
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the election outcome one way or another i'm
sure that's why they did it as opposed to a conspiracy against trump but you know this
news was available i think we'll find out
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weeks ago and so i guess you'd have to blame
or or there'd be some culpability on the part of trump's election team or you know his his head
of the fda or what have you they must have known
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some of this information and you would think they
would have done a better job getting it out there no he did say at every rally it's just around
the corner it's just around the corner we're
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around the corner and and we all thought it was
[ __ ] you thought it was [ __ ] we thought it was [ __ ] right and you know why we thought
it was [ __ ] well because trump trump does
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have a tendency towards hyperbole hyperbole
on trump's most honest day he's hyperbolic
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on trump's average day he is lying incessantly
so if anything if he was right and he was right
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that we were turning the corner and the vaccine
was coming and it was going to be beautiful a beautiful perfect vaccine and everybody was
going to get it he's paying the price for
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being a liar for four years right but it's the
kind of thing right no no no boy who cried wolf
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well and so does the media by the way but but yeah
look i i in order for a piece of news this big to
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be believed before the election it can't come from
a candidate and it's it's it's pretty amazing that
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none of this news got out there through some
other source you would think that some of the people on the health care task force that trump
appointed might have been you know surfacing
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this or paying attention to it maybe pfizer did a
really good job of hiding it i don't know but um
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it is pretty amazing that it didn't come out
sooner well the the other crazy thing is like you know even the pfizer team didn't exactly know what
was going on the chief the the head of vaccine
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research she said we're not part of the federal
government's uh you know warp speed program
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and then uh two days later pfizer was like
actually we are part of the warp speed program it's just that you know we're a supplier the whole
point is that um i'm not sure that pfizer actually
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knew two weeks in advance david i think that they
were probably trickling stuff together and they
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probably had a sense of it at the end of the
last week i'm surprised it didn't leak to be quite honest that's the more shocking thing which
means that um um it was probably something that uh
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uh very very very few people knew about well the
ceo the ceo put out a statement saying that he
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would be first in line to take the new vaccine
which i thought was you know a great statement because a lot of people were questioning whether
you know how real it was or how rushed it was
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but in order for him to do that and and in order
just to get like a press release announced i don't
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think that's the kind of thing that comes together
in the you know one or two day period between
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uh the announcement of joe biden winning the
election and their and their announcement so you know i i just think they had to know
weeks ago i just want to say to my greek brother
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alberto borlas the ceo of pfizer a great
greek who has led to the saving of the world
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saganaki is on me if you uh if you if you take
90 efficacy and you assume at most in the united
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states 40 percent of people will take the
actual vaccination you'll have 36 percent
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of the population covered which is still
not enough to get the r naught less than one is that correct free berg what do you think
no i don't know i'm not an epidemiologist
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i'd have to what i mean does it sound
directionally correct to you that people in the states are going to take it i mean
i think you don't take it isn't this like uh everyone who's high risk will take it yeah and as
of about two months ago you know it was estimated
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that 30 percent of people on the east coast
had already developed um uh immunity due to
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the seroprevalence studies that that showed um
antibodies on the west coast it was much lower
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closer to three percent you could estimate based
on the growth in cases since then and assuming we're kind of missing a bunch we're probably on a
national basis we're at 10 back then on a national
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basis you're probably up to 20 right now of um
americans have already been effectively immunized
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by getting the virus so you know if that's true
then you're at 55 and you're getting pretty close
00:21:47
to a um you know an ability to kind of inhibit
this thing from um uh from spreading rapidly again
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so how do we each feel i'll just go around
the horn how do we each feel about the
00:22:02
covet 19 end game when will we see all schools
open all nba arenas open with no distancing
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give us a quarter in 2021 when in america
enough vaccines will have been delivered
00:22:20
and distributed and rapid testing that life goes
back to let's call it 85 percent of normal i
00:22:29
don't think you ever get there i mean it's like we
talked about this a couple episodes ago but it's after 9 11 you know the tsa emerged and american
travel never went back to the way it was before
00:22:40
um and i think there will be a lot about the
way we live that's going to be you know kind of permanently scarred and permanently changed
here for a while whether it is taking people's
00:22:50
temperatures at football games wearing masks and
you know farmers markets who knows there's going
00:22:56
to be all these weird rules they're going
to pop up they're going to last for years regardless of how much immunization takes place
regardless of how cheap and available testing is
00:23:06
we're going to have this scar for a long
time um in terms of how we live as a society
00:23:12
i don't think we should kid ourselves that we're
gonna go back to quote unquote normal um and i do think kids are gonna get tested and schools are
gonna be like this friggin you know almost like
00:23:21
tsas now uh you know kids are gonna go into school
and get tested regularly and they're gonna do all sorts of stuff that we would have never dreamed
imaginable in a free country a year ago um and i
00:23:31
think that's permanent um i think you know we're
gonna you're already seeing people going nuts at
00:23:36
bars and restaurants and people that have had it
are out there partying and living their life again um so there's certainly don't you think if you
get the vaccine you're just gonna be like yolo
00:23:45
i've had enough of this yeah but i don't think
that that systems are going to change uh back to normal i think systems have changed to the
point that we've now got a way of living that
00:23:55
we think is safer that we think is we we are
now kind of inhibited because of this system
00:24:01
you agree yeah there'll be a lot fewer it's
what dave chappelle said on saturday there will be a lot fewer mass shootings the pandemic has
done a great job of keeping the whites at home
00:24:11
we watched it all you [ __ ] three out
of four besties watched it together all you all you guys go down your mass shooting
rampages you know the whites are at home they're
00:24:20
frustrated but they're at home thank god uh so
i think there'll be some advantages well i mean but let's talk about it your mother does does
2021 mean let's go back to school 2021 september
00:24:30
no problem no i think free burger's right i think
that the best we'll get back to is sort of this 80 state and i don't think it happens until probably
2022 and maybe 2023 but probably 2022 because
00:24:41
you have to remember like we have to ramp up now
billions of vaccine production like it's a this is
00:24:46
a non-trivial path from here to quote-unquote
mass market and uh that takes a long time
00:24:53
i think we have to figure out how we're going to
administer it by the way it's and and the way that the pfizer vaccine works and maybe these other
folks is you get the shot and then you know three
00:25:03
months three weeks later i think you get a booster
so you have to take two cycles of this thing um
00:25:08
and it's not gonna last forever and it's not gonna
last forever so this is uh freeberg's right it's
00:25:13
the beginning of a very different way of living um
i think i think that the the good part about it is
00:25:19
that um you know we've made a lot of changes that
makes our lives a lot more efficient the bad part
00:25:25
about it is we're even more detached from our
neighbors and you know we're probably even more
00:25:30
likely uh to be a little bit uh more separated
if we don't make an effort to be together
00:25:36
sacks do you buy this because i get the sense that
you might be more optimistic than free berg yeah
00:25:43
cha cha i guess i guess i am i think covet is
going to be a distant memory by next summer i think we'll have one to two quarters of transition
but i think that once the vaccine's widely
00:25:53
available plus the treatment of the testings
for the people who slip through the cracks
00:25:58
um yeah i i tend to think things are going to
snap back very fast and kovitt will just be this
00:26:04
bad memory a very distant bad memory and i think
in fact i think things may bounce back the other
00:26:10
way everyone having been cooped up and afraid of
getting some life-threatening illness are going to
00:26:16
come out of this really wanting to party i think
the whole world's going to be like tel aviv for
00:26:22
you know a few months or something and um yeah i
mean i really do think it's going to bounce back i
00:26:28
think to the point politically where a few years
from now people could ask wait why why was it
00:26:34
again that trump lost you know um you know th this
covet thing will be it will be so in the rear view
00:26:40
mirror that will wonder why we were so afraid
of it i think this is uh i'm going to go with
00:26:47
david's sax's position here because of the simple
fact that we had 130 000 confirmed cases you know
00:26:55
up until this election period the last week or so
and deaths still not spiking it's a little just a
00:27:03
minor uptick you know we had a day with like
uh i think maybe 1500 but still staying in that you know thousand range even with case of spiking
and i think that we were so incompetent with test
00:27:16
and trace in this country that we didn't see
exactly what happens in an authoritarian country
00:27:24
or a country that is lucky enough to
be an island and has easy borders which we almost do i mean we basically have two borders
we're like two-thirds of two you know 50 percent
00:27:34
island but hawaii taiwan japan and australia all
quarantined people on the way in they tested them
00:27:43
and they had extremely extremely low death counts
and extremely low case counts with the vaccine
00:27:51
being half as effective as you know they claim and
rapid testing which some of us have know some of
00:28:00
us know people who have experienced rapid testing
at homes that combination i believe is going to
00:28:06
make this go so low and the people who are high
risk are still going to be scared staying home
00:28:12
i think like david come the summer of next
summer people are going to be at a rave
00:28:21
with freeberg's you know custom-made molly
or whatever he's making during this downtime
00:28:27
going absolutely bonkers i
think burning man next year becomes like the the greatest burning man ever
it'll be it'll be the burn of of of all burns
00:28:39
why was let's shift a bit over to uh the economy
what a rip did we see when that pfizer i mean
00:28:49
the election and pfizer this week led to a huge
rep obviously there's a little bit of cyclical
00:28:55
movement the tech stocks were the big winners
now people are starting to buy disney back up
00:29:01
to 140 i guess people assume the parks will
reopen what's our outlook for the stock market
00:29:07
in david sacks's you know scenario three you know
i don't say gridlock government but forced to
00:29:15
compromise government what do we think the markets
look like the next two years i think you have to
00:29:21
go out saxophone no glasses well i was gonna say
gridlock is great for the markets um but both when bill clinton was president with a republican
house and when obama was president and there was a
00:29:31
republican house and i guess uh center for a
period of time gridlock is great for the markets
00:29:38
especially given the amount of stimulus that's
taken place i mean you had the trump tax cuts especially those corporate tax cuts really set the
market on fire and then you've got this pumping
00:29:49
by the fed and the treasury all the stimulus money
for kovid i mean those conditions and then why
00:29:55
is gridlock good we didn't explain that here well
because explain to somebody who doesn't understand why gridlock is good why good luck is good well
because it creates predictability for business and
00:30:04
it means that washington's not going to get in the
way and do something to screw up the good times i mean we have fundamentally you know great
underlying conditions for economic growth which is
00:30:14
we have now pretty low taxes and we had this for
better or worse we had this tremendous amount of stimulus fiscal stimulus what we know historically
is over the past hundred years right since the 20s
00:30:25
independent of republican administrations
or democratic administrations you know more progressive less progressive more conservative
less conservative during world wars not during
00:30:35
world wars the markets go up eight percent a
year so the do no harm solution is that things
00:30:44
inflate naturally by eight percent especially if
those things are public stocks so you know the
00:30:49
markets love the fact that there's uh nothing that
could theoretically get in the way of that natural
00:30:55
eight percent and then when you layer on top
of it as david said uh all this free money
00:31:00
that's just like rocket fuel jet fuel um but
you know but you saw though that there was a
00:31:07
rotation right there was a rotation out of these
high growth software names particularly the work from home bid kind of got crushed you know i mean
i think zoom was off 25 over two days or some
00:31:17
crazy thing like that um meanwhile sort of all
of these theme park stocks and cruise lines and
00:31:24
airlines all of a sudden ripped so i mean look the
reality is the scary thing about all of this is if
00:31:29
any of that stuff actually comes to pass we're
going to see inflation and the reason is because if you start going out and spending a bunch of
money on tickets and vacations and flights and
00:31:39
this and that and pumping money into the economy
and taking all that stimulus money and putting it back to work prices will go up um and by the
way that's not such a bad thing for the economy
00:31:48
which which needs a little bit of it so um all
of this is i think generally very very good news
00:31:55
freeberg do you have a position on what you think
will happen in the coming let's let's i would
00:32:01
think the midterm is what people care most about
so that would be let's call it two to six quarters
00:32:08
there's one potential speed bump still which is
what i mentioned at the beginning which is georgia uh the the democrats could still win both runoffs
in georgia for senate and they could um because
00:32:21
kamala harris would then have the breaking vote
it would be a 50 republican 50 democrat senate and
00:32:27
and the vice president would uh would break any
ties the question is if you have that same turnout
00:32:33
where do the libertarians break because i think
the libertarians were almost two percent of the vote well i think yeah what's interesting is um
the i don't know if you guys have but i've gotten
00:32:42
emails from a lot of people asking me to donate
money for this uh uh runoff campaign in georgia
00:32:48
i think god i got so many so many i i i think i
think we're gonna see literally the biggest um
00:32:55
the the biggest funding for a senate runoff
race in history by far don't you think saks like
00:33:01
probably north of 100 million dollars being spent
maybe 100 to 200 million dollars being spent on
00:33:07
advertisements in georgia to try and get people to
go vote one way or the other the democrats think they have a real run at this they think it's
make or break two years to kind of get their
00:33:15
you know um uh history changing policies in effect
republicans think it saved the the nation time
00:33:22
so everyone's rushing to georgia right now um so
the markets are going to have a very close eye
00:33:28
on what's going on over there i think um i'm you
know i'm very nervous about it um if the democrats
00:33:33
look like they're getting much more money into the
state and they're actually going to you know get people to the polls and um to the voting booths
and actually get into this runoff on january 5th
00:33:43
and actually flip uh get both of those seats to be
uh um to be blue uh it's gonna be a very different
00:33:49
market environment i mean you could see the market
drop by 30 40 percent uh in the next six we have we have a situation where it's 4848 there are two
seats up for grabs those two seats are in a runoff
00:33:59
these and i want to get into the exactly let me
correct that jason it's 48.50 yes the republicans have a 50 to 48 advantage with two open seats in
the runoff actually sorry one one seed is open
00:34:10
the other it has an incumbent purdue who's facing
ossip purdue won in the last election he got like
00:34:19
nine point nine percent fifty yeah if you get
fifty percent you get to this runoff in january georgia the only place that has this where
you have to get to fifty in order to win yeah
00:34:28
it's crazy it's crazy so weird is this just they
want the extra attention or who came up with this
00:34:33
idea this seems just like every state's got
its own history it's crazy it is one of the unique things about living in the united states
of america as opposed to america let's talk about
00:34:43
exit polls uh well this is what's incredible
here let me tee this up for you so in in 2020 um
00:34:53
biden got 80 of the black vote trump got six
this is aggregate so we can break this down by
00:34:59
men and age group and you can it looks even uh
even more interesting latinos biden got 67 trump
00:35:08
got 22 percent of the latino vote between the ages
of 18 to 34 so boomers oh sorry pardon me uh gen
00:35:18
z uh and millennials again i would have thought
100 biden it was on it was 62 percent biden 23
00:35:27
went for trump one in four uh amongst women uh
and again you know we thought ah okay uh you know
00:35:34
suburban women are breaking biden 80 20. it turned
out biden got 58 percent of women trump got 35
00:35:44
of all the female vote and the coup de
grace whites with a degree um again you would have thought this would have been 80
20 90 10 and said it was 53 biden 38 trump
00:35:59
so this really was uh something if we
look at this if we look back on this the pollsters were completely wrong in thinking
once again that these groups of people are
00:36:14
monolithic the the and then i think the most the
most mind-boggling to me and and i had a candid
00:36:23
discussion about this was um the term latin x is
a a catch-all term for people who are of latino
00:36:34
spanish-speaking uh descent and what
somebody told me who is in this latinx group is that it's the most insulting thing
they've ever been told it's almost as a term
00:36:46
like the term saying oriental to describe
people from asia you're just grouping us all
00:36:51
into one thing people from cuba venezuela
and mexico all think the same this is the
00:36:59
absolute you know end game of identity politics
which is we have to put you in a corner we own you
00:37:07
we own your opinion and you belong to our party
whichever party it is oh you don't have a degree
00:37:14
you're a gop hillbilly oh you you're latinx okay
well then we own you you're a democrat david
00:37:23
what and and i know that this is an area where
you know uh you have a lot of expertise what are
00:37:29
your thoughts well as it turns out um promoting
socialism to people who fled cuba nicaragua and
00:37:36
venezuela to escape it uh turns out not to be
a great uh election strategy and um and so yeah
00:37:43
it's this this idea that latinx is is one block
it's not it consists of a bunch of different
00:37:50
of immigrants from a bunch of different nations
and the ones who fled socialism are not eager to
00:37:55
reenact it in the united states the republicans
flipped two house seats in south florida
00:38:03
where there's a lot of cuban americans and even
in the um the heavily uh mexican-american counties
00:38:11
uh in along the rio grande and texas uh trump
improved uh let's see it looks like he improved
00:38:19
um 59 and 30 39 respectively over his 2016 showing
so this is not just some fluke of the exit polls
00:38:28
um it seems like trump really made progress in
a lot of these groups that seemed to defy their
00:38:35
you know what what the promoters of identity
politics the way that they wanted them to vote um gay americans were another one i think
trump improved his share of the gay vote
00:38:45
from 14 in 2016 to 28 um this year so um i
mean really it's pretty amazing people are not
00:38:53
voting the way that they're supposed to vote um
trump also improved from 12 to 18 with black men
00:39:00
and four to eight percent of black women i mean
those are still pretty low numbers but there was improvement there and i think part of the reason
is that not all of the african-american community
00:39:09
is on board with defunding the police well i also
think what it means is identity politics is a
00:39:15
stupid strategy forget whether you're offended
by it or not at this point what's clear is it's
00:39:20
a stupid [ __ ] strategy it doesn't work
it's a path to losing because the more and
00:39:26
more you do it the more and more you're going to
disenfranchise individuals who want to be judged sort of of sound mind and body right i mean if
he took a thousand sri lankans and put him in
00:39:36
a room and said i'm going to judge you as a sri
lankan vote i would tell you to go [ __ ] yourself
00:39:41
you know i would be deeply offended by that and
this is where i think the radical left is going to have to retool because their theory of how they
take power in america is always that demographics
00:39:51
is destiny that you know as the country simply
becomes more diverse we're gonna they're automatically gonna vote for us and there's a
lot of data in this election to show that that's
00:40:01
not what's gonna happen you actually have to run
on issues that people care about let's think about
00:40:07
this in the context of internet advertising right
the the the world prior to internet advertising
00:40:13
you had um you know uh channels and you would
have an audience that was estimated to be made
00:40:20
up of some demographic set on that channel
and you would buy an ad spot on that channel and that's who you would reach and so you would
create a message for that now today we can create
00:40:28
personalized ads and personalized messages and
uh internet advertisers are much more thoughtful
00:40:33
about targeting targeting based on psychographic
profiling behavioral targeting and i think that's
00:40:38
where politics has to head in the united states
it's kind of keeping up with this personalization
00:40:44
of both products but also of media and ads and
um and i think that's what we're going to see if you listen to james carville who's like you know a
classic kind of democratic campaign advisor um and
00:40:56
he did a podcast just leading up to the election
and if you listen to this podcast these guys are
00:41:01
very old school it's like the whites are going
to do this and the blacks are going to do that and the the college educator are going to
do this and the others are going to do that
00:41:08
and they don't realize that the segmentation
that's possible today i think reveals a lot more about the character of the uh of the population
they're basically i think it's such an astute
00:41:17
point freyberg they're basically living in the
level of granularity of network tv it's like cable
00:41:23
tv yeah it's like they got to cable tv and they're
like okay bet espn nascar and guess what like like
00:41:30
the world is much more complex individuals have
found their own personal voice and they found their own personal voice through social media
through instagram through this ability to kind
00:41:39
of define themselves not fit within a cohort and i
think that's what maybe they always did feel that
00:41:44
way and we just had never had the technology
to get there yeah but i think it's i think it's also about people like people have complex
points of view you know the four of us sit here
00:41:52
and none of neither of us none of us identify
as a party anymore we all identify with with um
00:41:57
certain uh points that we think are important
to us individually and then we have a point of view on those points and i think that's the case
for the majority of the population in the united
00:42:06
states i don't think people are like i'm just a [
__ ] democrat no matter what and i'm a republican no matter what people care more deeply in a more
complex way and i think politics needs to resolve
00:42:14
to that um and and that's going to require a shift
in how you communicate how you message how you
00:42:19
get feedback how you drive um uh blocks for
voting and uh it's gonna it's gonna uh you know
00:42:25
be a really interesting change over the next 15
to 20 years and it may be what saves the republic i i think this is an incredible observation
it might be the observation of the episode
00:42:35
and i just want to point to a tweet i did because
i this is this election has really led to me doing
00:42:42
um two things one i've been just thinking
deeply about what do i actually understand about americans in america um and then i also
you know there's all these red pills around so
00:42:52
i decided i would crush up a red pill and i would
just you know put a little on my finger and i try a little red pill for a second uh and everybody
told me i've been repelled now on twitter and
00:43:02
that i'm a trump fan i am not i hate the guy
i think it's horrible but i i did this quick
00:43:08
survey here i said if you voted for trump i want
to understand what percentage of your vote vote was based on the combination of a
canceled culture b identity politics c
00:43:17
socialism d coastal elites telling you how to live
explain other issues that contributed in a reply
00:43:23
i.e spending immigration sc the supreme court
et cetera and i just said zero percent one to
00:43:29
25 26 to 50 at over 50. and and i got 12 000
votes go ahead and look at the results not the
00:43:38
replies but go ahead and vote it doesn't matter
which one you pick over 50 of people who voted
00:43:44
for trump and i know this is unscientific it's my
followers but it's definitely feels directionally correct the people who felt 26 to over 50 percent
was part of the cancel culture identity culture
00:43:58
was what they were trying to communicate with
their vote well this is this is such an important
00:44:03
thing because i think this is what we're fighting
over the every single 70 of them no every single
00:44:09
election going forward like if you if you put this
on top of the 70 odd million people that voted
00:44:15
this kind of roughly makes sense which is that
you know there's probably about 20 million people
00:44:21
who will completely vote democrat no matter what
and 20 million people who will completely vote
00:44:27
republican no matter what their their just eyes
are closed their ears are closed they don't care
00:44:33
but when you take those people out there's
this enormous amount of people in the middle who have the ability to vote a split ticket you
know and as and as as saxxypoo said like they'll
00:44:44
vote uh a democrat into the white house but then
down ballot they'll vote a bunch of republicans
00:44:50
and they'll just make sure there's a balance
of power so they've been telling us about this kind of centricity for years and so if you
want to win an election you do two things
00:45:00
part one is you understand this dynamic that
centrism wins and part two is what friedrich says which is you understand that we need to
enter sort of the google cpc world of political
00:45:10
advertising and really cater not just the ads but
also the message to individual people and stop the
00:45:18
um you know the cat the gross high level
categorization which isn't working anymore
00:45:25
yeah and and and jason let me can i add um that
the connection between cancel culture in this
00:45:31
election so you know obviously the pollsters
got everything completely wrong and again again
00:45:38
and but the reason is because of cancel culture
so in exit polling 45 of republicans with college
00:45:45
degrees expressed fear that their careers could
be at risk if their views became known compared to
00:45:51
only 23 democrats saying that and so there were
these you know quote unquote shy trump voters
00:45:57
who are afraid to tell pollsters what they
really think now it wasn't the trump voters that you think of when you see the pickup trucks
and the convoys go by or the rallies sort of the
00:46:07
those those were the voters from 2016 who weren't
counted it was sort of the non-college blue collar
00:46:12
voters the michael moore uh you know people who
turned out for trump and big numbers and weren't
00:46:18
properly counted four years ago the pollsters
actually counted those people correctly this time the people they completely underestimated
was actually the white college vote
00:46:27
who swung for a lot of swung from democrat to
republican they voted for trump because of this
00:46:32
issue and they were afraid to say anything about
it because they're afraid of getting canceled and by the way they they are every other person
everybody listening to this podcast works with
00:46:42
and so deal with that one right exactly anybody
who's not actively virtue signaling on twitter for
00:46:49
biden is a trump voter i'm not sure that's
exactly correct but roughly i think it's wrong
00:46:56
roughly you know if people
aren't exp if people in tech aren't explicitly endorsing uh biden on
twitter they're probably closet from voters
00:47:08
it is going to be very interesting for
people to go back to offices because now we
00:47:14
have had a resolution and identity politics
cancel culture and extremism on both sides
00:47:22
hysterical and trolling trolling republicans
hysterical libs this has been a loss for both
00:47:30
of those parties and now the pandemic is ending
we're going to be back in offices at some point
00:47:36
i mean what is office culture going to be like
are people going to go with the brian armstrong
00:47:41
let's just get work done here let's not talk
about politics it's just too charged or not um it's going to be a very interesting it's
every it's every comp it's every company's right
00:47:53
you know it's every company's right to care about
what they want to care about every board every ceo every controlling shareholder and then it's every
employee's right to vote with their feet about
00:48:03
whether that's okay or not and i think that look
i i mean the whole brian armstrong thing again
00:48:08
just to say one of the most pathetically poorly
written you know pieces of english prose i've ever
00:48:15
[ __ ] seen you know he's a crypto in fairness my
dog my dog is my dog he's not a coder he's a she's
00:48:22
a ceo my dog slamming his her paw on the keyboard
would have created a better prose than that but
00:48:28
he was coming from a reasonable place he had the
right to say what he said um the problem is that
00:48:33
it's so antithetical to what you're allowed to
believe for example living in san francisco um
00:48:39
but i think that that's going to change because
you can't ignore every other person telling you
00:48:44
that there are meaningful economic issues
that matter and that the prioritization and
00:48:51
the policing of these you know sort of high-value
social signaling issues are no longer a priority
00:48:59
and i think that what's going to happen is there
will be room for a party that focuses on that uh
00:49:05
and a group of people but they will be relegated
just like on the other side uh that will happen
00:49:10
to the republican version of that as well i i just
think this whole thing to this honestly for me it
00:49:16
was it seems like such a tight election it is but
i really think the huge winner here is centrism
00:49:22
100 i i i i agree with that and i i would say
that this election proves that brian armstrong
00:49:28
was right because the average american is tired
of these highly charged political situations
00:49:35
and the last thing they want to do is have these
conversations at work where they can get reported to where they can offend their co-workers and
get reported to hr they can make them feel unsafe
00:49:48
they don't want to have these conversations
at work certainly by the way only five percent of coinbase's employees took armstrong up on
that offer to leave so the number of people
00:49:57
who actually want to have a politically charged
workplace is very very small they're just the noisiest they're the squeakiest wheel i mean
and that was a ridiculous deal i mean what
00:50:06
did he say six months and we invest he made it
really attractive to leave if you didn't agree with this possibility was that was that written
because i couldn't figure that out yeah it was
00:50:14
written it was an attractive deal to leave if you
wanted to leave and ninety-five percent chose to yeah did i say it was poorly written i didn't
understand it because it was so hollywood
00:50:23
so anyway so 95 percent stayed so my point
is just the number of people who actually
00:50:28
like this highly polarized politically charged
situation in which we're all arguing with our friends over politics and children are
divorcing their parents because they're not
00:50:38
woke enough i mean people don't want to live
in that kind of country anymore and i think this is the thing that joe biden really got right
in his campaign i mean this is why i mean this
00:50:47
is the only way that his basement strategy could
actually work and results in him getting elected
00:50:53
is people actually do want this return to
normalcy do you know who the biggest loser is going to be coming out of this i think not
when you think holistically about the ecosystem
00:51:03
it's going to be the media because they
have made an absolute fortune over the last
00:51:10
four or five years picking aside what is the point
of watching rachel maddow january 20th what is the
00:51:18
point of tuning into fox news or reading the
hysterical opinion page of the new york times
00:51:24
all of these places that were being propped up by
either trumpism or anti-trumpism are now going to
00:51:33
find themselves where they started which is not
a job without a job and we just wanted you to
00:51:39
tell us the news and terrorism straight there
was a great new york times have an opinion page
00:51:46
rip the opinion page out of the new york times
rip it out of the wall no no no no no no i i
00:51:52
no i disagree i think the opposite happened which
is that opinion page was meant to be where people
00:51:57
could have an opinion so that everything else was
fact and the problem is that all the other pages became opinion as well and nobody told anybody
but yes i don't think that but nobody can tell
00:52:06
the difference and look at that nobody can tell
the difference that's right they can't tell the difference and look at that expose about how barry
or barry weiss was run out of the new york times
00:52:17
it basically the activists ran her out um and
the the reality is activists have completely
00:52:23
captured the new york times and cnn and msnbc
and there is and they always had fox and the
00:52:29
new york times they always had fox but but now
we have no objective neutral media and so who's
00:52:35
going to call the election i mean you complain
about the fact that trump is sowing dissent but
00:52:41
who is the universally trusted uh spokesperson
for neutrality the way that walter cronkite was
00:52:48
when he could just declare it and that's the way
it is and people believe that's the way it is
00:52:53
who did the best job freedberg that night when we
were doing that let's reflect on the live stream i have two questions for the live stream number
one who is your bestie guestie who who did you
00:53:02
think added the most as a guestie and why and then
number two we're doing we're doing whatever what
00:53:09
we're gonna do we're gonna do a poll a human
valuable before i got a lot of feedback on
00:53:16
the guesties there's a little girly people
can i say one more thing on this stuff brad
00:53:21
before before we go there uh there was a there
was a really good article in the new york times about maggie haberman right and maggie who's a
fantastic journalist but built an entire career
00:53:32
it really amplified came to a head in 2016 um
and she just scoop after scoop um about trump
00:53:40
but the most impelling thing about that whole
article was somewhere near the you know a third
00:53:45
of the way from the bottom uh she's like look
uh at the end of the day uh she said something
00:53:51
like i'm dispensable and i know it and it was the
most honest thing because it's like despite her
00:53:56
popularity and despite sort of you know how big
of a stick she carries the reality is sans trump
00:54:03
uh there's just nothing to do there's nothing
to leak there's there just is not nearly as
00:54:10
much to do i did just put in the um the chat
here the washington post fox news the hill
00:54:17
basically like the full gamut of um of uh of uh
media opinion have highlighted that the media
00:54:26
generally is the biggest loser of the uh of the
2020 election and i think i i think they've just
00:54:32
lost the um uh the faith of their audience
and um you know it's it's i mean it's this
00:54:39
access point i don't know how many people were
you're either looking for objective and you've lost it or you're looking for opinionated and
you feel like you're um you know your aligned
00:54:48
opinion setting media partner has betrayed you
um you know the fact that fox called it for
00:54:54
uh for trump and trump's now saying fox is is is a
liar the fact that the new york times doesn't feel
00:55:00
like they're being objective anymore and they're
you know they're running people out of the uh out of the newsroom in general i just
feel like we've been disenfranchised um
00:55:09
and i think that's uh that's something that's
going to be really hard to kind of recover from and resolve and for the love of god can somebody
please get i i don't want you to break any laws
00:55:21
but however if we could read the slack channel
of the new york times reporters leading up to the
00:55:32
hundred days of this election that would become
the greatest best-selling book of all time to
00:55:38
watch the new york times writers bicker with each
other sax i mean we could do 10 hours on that
00:55:44
no problem let's talk about okay bestie gasting
guesties what did you think of our guests i
00:55:50
thought they were all great i thought they're all
great are we now becoming uh media critics we're gonna now yeah who do we like our own podcasts
what are you going for are we why are you yeah
00:56:07
jason wants jason wants to throw
youth under the bus go ahead jason no no no no no no oh contraire does anyone have
a video they want to share person on the podium
00:56:18
youth in his place that it was not the it was not
the point guard in this case somebody pulled a
00:56:27
draymond and pulled she held you at the side and
said stop you gotta pass the ball i do you think
00:56:33
brad did a great job he had some great insights
i think bill gurley had some great insights which i think was just a great really good job of
getting some people to rotate in i enjoyed it
00:56:42
yeah i thought it was really well everyone was
great i'll give a shout out to my bestie newman
00:56:47
he was better he was better as a political analyst
and all those jokers on cnn and fox and msnbc the
00:56:54
dude with the with the map and he kept touching
the map and yeah it's like that guy gets paid to
00:56:59
do that i can't believe he gets paid to do that
i'm gonna get my daughter on cnn she can do that
00:57:05
when's the guy on cnn who does that john k john
king john king god bless this guy because i don't
00:57:11
know how much adderall he's on but i i turned it
on at 8am and he was zooming into pennsylvania
00:57:17
and he's like oh well of course in 2018 this
time 2016. he's like let's zoom out and let's go back to arizona of course in arizona this place
i was like is this guy a geography teacher i mean
00:57:28
he was amazing and just the dexterity he
looked like he was tom cruise a minority report with the fingers i don't know i
don't know if i'd call him tom cruise
00:57:38
i don't look like tom cruise but the minority
report pinch and zoom in and out it was incredible
00:57:43
when uh when when does trump call this thing
that's a great question well i think he has to
00:57:48
run out these core challenges which will take a
few weeks but i i predict by thanksgiving um but it may have to go up to the supreme court but he's
gonna he's gonna dot the eye dot every eye and
00:57:59
cross every t that he's got legally um but he's
got like we talked about the very beginning he's got a huge uphill challenge i'd i see the court
ultimately ruling against him or throwing it out
00:58:08
what is the point david what is it well because
why shouldn't he doesn't he's not gonna win
00:58:14
no i don't i don't know that he he knows that
he he i think it's his right to exhaust every
00:58:19
legal uh possibility and let's remember al gore
didn't concede for 37 days after the election so i
00:58:26
certainly think trump is within his rights
over the next few weeks to run this out in terms of what the point is i mean other than
the obvious attempt to challenge it legally i
00:58:34
do think this is partly a branding exercise by
trump um it's a marketing exercise i don't think
00:58:42
he's going to come up with enough malfeasance
to overturn an election but i do think he'll
00:58:47
probably produce a lot of smoke and this is
about protecting his brand as a as a winner and
00:58:53
you know if he kicks up enough um you know
examples of voter fraud or or what have you he'll
00:59:00
always be able to say you know years from now that
this was it was a stolen election and when you
00:59:05
combine the fact that kovid really did drive this
this election you could call that chinese election
00:59:13
interference if you want the fact that the
vaccine is now here already you could call that um you know some sort of election interference
he's going to have enough arguments where if
00:59:22
he wants to run four years from now um i think he
probably gets the republican nomination again what
00:59:28
what's the percentage chance chamath that he runs
again in four years zero um free berg trump yeah
00:59:38
i think he's gonna be making so much money he's
not gonna know what to do with himself he's not going back to that [ __ ] torture support your
house if you think about the white house like some
00:59:46
terrible blumhouse production movie set he's like
[ __ ] that i'm not going back there it was awful
00:59:51
where is he going where is he going he's going to
go to china he's going to shanghai is he going to he's going to launch it you're going to be in
new york he's going to buy a law firm because
00:59:59
he's gonna need a law firm to keep everyone at
bay and he's gonna be probably printing a hundred million bucks a month you know put it at dubai
saudi arabia i think yeah i think i think he's
01:00:07
definitely gonna launch a media business and uh
he'll he'll try to become king maker i think i
01:00:13
think he will become a king maker republican
politics he will launch a competitor to fox news but it will also be fox news hybridized with
a grassroots movement like the tea party and every
01:00:25
republican will need to go get his endorsement or
they will be primaried by the trump party and i i
01:00:31
would not put it aside more could not disagree
more i think he's a disgrace i think he will be
01:00:38
i think that's not what david said he's gonna
come not you david i'm talking about trump i
01:00:45
think dave is incredible uh no i think the stuff
that comes out after this the deluge the number
01:00:52
of sdny suits all the griff and the graft it's
all coming out not only is he not going to be
01:01:00
a king maker he will not be able to get the
backing for this network it'll be breitbart light
01:01:07
and it'll be shut down within 24 months he'll fail
so miserably that when he walks into a restaurant
01:01:14
it'll be like game of thrones shame shame well
i i don't i don't i don't think so i think that
01:01:22
it's very likely that the donald trump that
runs for president in 2024 is donald trump jr
01:01:30
oh god no he's horrible the whole republican party
has to start over let's end on this pompeo did
01:01:41
a press conference is the state department
currently preparing to engage with the biden transition team and if not at what point does a
delay hamper a smooth transition or pose a risk
01:01:51
to national security there will be a smooth
transition to a second trump administration
01:01:59
all right we're ready the world is watching
what's taking place here we're going to count all the votes when the process is complete
there'll be electors selected there's a process
01:02:08
the constitution lays it out pretty clearly
the world should have every confidence that the transition necessary to make sure that
the state department is functional today
01:02:16
successful today and successful with the president
who's in office on january 20th a minute afternoon
01:02:22
will also be successful can i can i just say i
don't disagree with the position they're taking it's not immoral it's customary and traditional to
concede your election but you know december 15th
01:02:35
is the date that congress ratifies the electoral
votes uh to determine who the next president is
01:02:40
going to be um and these guys are just taking a a
very kind of pragmatic um legal line that is not
01:02:49
immoral in a way they they believe that they have
some case on on what the vote should be the votes are all very close yadda yadda i'm not saying that
he's gonna win or by any chance but i don't think
01:02:59
that um folks saying like let the votes be counted
and let congress do their job of having the states
01:03:05
tell them who their electoral votes are going
to is uh is an inappropriate position to take i
01:03:10
sound like i might sound like some conservative
you know trump head but i'm not i think that
01:03:16
um these guys i'm what i'm just saying is that
these guys aren't that immoral in in kind of asking for that for that you know sorry i also
think at the fringes of the republican party
01:03:24
this is what you keep all these militia folks
and all these other folks at bay is just you
01:03:30
show a really methodical um you know um stepping
away from the spotlight and i think that this is
01:03:38
yeah honestly it's this is a very deliberate safe
calming thing to do cause i think there's there's
01:03:45
been nothing about the trump administration from
2016 through to this very moment that has been customary or traditional and so i don't know why
we all expected him to step in and say like i can
01:03:54
see like the way that we've been doing it it would
be worse it'd be worse if he had conceded and all of a sudden was holding a bunch of protests
and rallies all over the country that but
01:04:01
he's not doing anything illegal no one
has any legal requirement to concede and um you know and i think as long as these guys on
december 15th which is the date that we should
01:04:10
all be watching and waiting for as long as these
guys do the appropriate thing at that point then um you know that that's the only point in
which i would have any sort of concern or worry
01:04:20
about what's going on with the transition in
the government but sorry i think this is about saving face and saving brand a sexy passenger
he'll he'll be out by december 15th meaning right
01:04:29
it'll this will all be done yeah i agree and look
let's remember that al gore was able to challenge the election result for 37 days without being
hysterically accused of undermining democracy so
01:04:40
let trump have his day in court it'll play
out over the next few weeks i expect that the
01:04:45
obstacles he has has to overcome are are too large
and he will lose these lawsuits it might go to the
01:04:51
supreme court it would not be a bad thing if the
supreme court were the ones to make this decision
01:04:57
uh they're one of the last institutions that
still trusted clearly the media are not and i think that you know trump will accept the result
he may not concede but he will accept the result
01:05:07
when it comes from the supreme court is there a
non-zero chance that he could win on a recount
01:05:15
he would have to prove systemic fraud because
it's not like florida where there's just one state
01:05:20
and a few hundred votes he's gotta overcome over
twelve thousand votes in at least three states so
01:05:28
that's the issue is is it it's a percent
on its sacks if you had to lay money on it oh i mean it's like some ten percent
chance i think except 10 chance 1 in
01:05:37
10 you'd give 10 to 1 odds no i'm saying
it's under 10 i'm saying it's a very small
01:05:43
well here's the thing so bush v gore the
um the supreme court ruled seven to two
01:05:50
i mean you would have thought it was nine to
zero um so clearly there was some sympathizers in bush v gore so hopefully you know it's something
like seven to two and um you know we move on i i
01:06:02
believe if it gets the supreme court it will be at
least seven to two if not eight one or nine zero
01:06:07
just because i think trump has a much harder
case to prove in florida the issue was simply
01:06:13
whether the recount should be allowed to continue
james baker went to the supreme court to stop the recount that was in process uh because of the
fear that the local corrupt election officials
01:06:24
basically steal the election for gore that
you know but but but bush was always ahead
01:06:30
in that election there was never a time when bush
was behind um biden is now ahead in every swing
01:06:36
state that matters trump has to now overturn
that result in at least three of those states
01:06:43
i don't know how thousands of votes by tens of
thousands of i just don't know how he does that he has to prove some sort of systemic fraud
that took place across the nation that and
01:06:54
and look i think from like a marketing or branding
standpoint he'll be able to create a lot of smoke i think they will actually find quite a bit of
misconduct because i don't think our elections
01:07:04
are perfect but will it rise to the standard that
the supreme court is going to set for overturning
01:07:09
an election i don't think so i don't think so
i mean they'll probably find it on both sides there's got to be some crazy well
the other trump supporter who has
01:07:18
10 ballots they signed and there'll
be some crazy liberal who did this the nuanced issue is whether they can do a
constitutionally valid recount by you know the time necessary as well so the longer that
this lays on then they'll be forced to basically
01:07:32
say no to that also because otherwise it will
be effectively throwing out an election and so uh as we wrap here san francisco's uh continues to
devolve revenue down 40 percent in terms of taxes
01:07:46
budget is double what it's been uh just a few
years ago crime is going crazy walmart is closing
01:07:53
their stores and leaving because of walgreens
i'm sorry walgreens we don't have a walmart here
01:07:59
um and there's 20 there's more homes on the market
now than there have been too much of anything is
01:08:05
a bad thing if you eat too much broccoli it's a
bad thing you know what i mean so too much of a
01:08:11
single party monoculture is bad whether it's
republican or democrat you need a diverse
01:08:20
centrist plurality and in the absence of that many
cities that veer in one direction or the other
01:08:26
will decay and die and san francisco is going to
be the tip of the spear for the left's version
01:08:33
and there's been a bunch of cities that have
already been the examples of the rights version so you know what um apparently the
water is warm and they want to join
01:08:43
anybody else freedberg i can't i can't find a lot
to disagree with there i think san francisco we're
01:08:48
basically an atlas shrugged i mean the uh you know
half the storefronts are closed they're boarded up
01:08:55
uh the city is completely surrendered to the
criminal element you can't park your car anywhere in the city without having it getting broken into
they won't prosecute people for crimes including
01:09:05
uh increasingly violent crimes um the uh you
know the the the the city is about to go bankrupt
01:09:14
and the entrepreneurs are all disappearing they're
all leaving i mean it's right out of the shrugged
01:09:20
yeah i mean it's it's the uh the action is
the wrong action right so san francisco the
01:09:27
biggest disappointment of election night for me
was the new business taxes that were passed um
01:09:33
for san francisco businesses um
and and there was also this like um for for 99.9999999 of people they're going to
shrug and say i don't give a [ __ ] but there
01:09:46
was this new tax of six percent for homes that
get sold over 10 million dollars now uh if you're
01:09:51
a successful entrepreneur an investor or a ceo of
a company in san francisco and you know it's it's
01:09:57
like a slap in the face um you add the business
tax with that kind of high-end property tax
01:10:03
and it's almost like an invitation to leave the
city and some people are nodding their heads wait this six percent is on leaving or buying uh
transaction when you sell so you literally six
01:10:13
percent off the top uh when you sell a home the
city basically just took six percent of my house
01:10:19
yeah this the city just took six percent of my
house it is now tax they're now a part owner of my house yeah it's an estate tax and so there
are people like there are people in san francisco
01:10:29
uh who we all know how much warning did you
have before they took your bedroom yeah i mean
01:10:36
um there's a london breed put some people in
sax's third 13th bedroom on the third floor
01:10:41
and they're all living there right now but
i mean it's okay i got like wings i don't
01:10:46
even know about it's like totally it's
like richie rich's house or something so nobody cries nobody cries for super rich people
and you know but it was so short-sighted is the
01:10:56
point right right exactly i'm not complaining
about the taxes on me but it's going to do tremendous damage to the city people are not going
to want to move here and we yeah yeah i look i've
01:11:06
built businesses in san francisco since 2006 and
i will not build another business in san francisco
01:11:12
and i hear the same from other entrepreneurs if
you're going to build a business do it in the south bay do it in the east bay do it in the north
bay or do it in austin or la or somewhere else
01:11:21
but this is just not a place to build businesses
the city is basically saying we don't want you here now that would be fine and dandy if the city
was being conservative in the way that they spend
01:11:30
and if they were actually reducing their budget
and you know kind of reducing the the city's activities the problem is these these uh taxes
diverge with the budget because um the taxes
01:11:41
are now going to go down because businesses are
leaving people are selling their homes they're not going to buy expensive homes anymore and
um we are seeing a budget crisis san francisco
01:11:51
i think is looking at a 1.7 to two billion dollar
budget shortfall this year um i mean like where's
01:11:56
that money gonna come from this is a city with
eight hundred thousand and we have and there was that expose in the san francisco chronicle
talking about how there's over twenty thousand
01:12:04
city workers making over a hundred fifty thousand
dollars a year 000 yeah yeah what are we getting for all of that the evidence is not apparent um
and this is where okay look i'd be happy to give
01:12:15
the city six percent of my house and pay all these
high taxes if we actually got something for it but the city just keeps getting less and less
livable uh yes city budget in 2013 so we have
01:12:26
a fiscal crisis a fiscal crisis and we have a
livability crisis that i think is even worse
01:12:32
um and that that's a huge problem and let's be
frank san francisco was always the accidental
01:12:38
beneficiary of silicon valley if you will san
francisco was the accidental billionaire it was
01:12:44
silicon valley that created this enormous wealth
and all the jobs and the the companies it wasn't san francisco policies or politics that created
any of that it just so happens that silicon valley
01:12:54
got big enough it started around stanford it
got big enough that san francisco as the nearest
01:12:59
metropolitan area really was a beneficiary
of that and and you know because they never
01:13:06
really did anything to create the conditions for
that prosperity frankly they took it for granted and now that the rug's been pulled out from under
them i don't think they're really going to know
01:13:13
what to do local local san francisco politicians
treated silicon valley success as a grab bag
01:13:20
and uber set up here and twitter and square and
salesforce and san francisco politicians put
01:13:28
their hand in the honey jar and took as much as
they could and um it's now backfiring because new
01:13:34
businesses don't want to set up here entrepreneurs
don't want to operate here and as sax is pointing out the you know the the rapid kind of inflation
has caused this tremendous decline uh in in the
01:13:44
quality of service there's zero accountability
zero checks and balances so san francisco is in for a really frank a scary reckoning and a
lot of people are really worried about it and
01:13:52
it's like a very real problem it's not like
oh the city's [ __ ] haha like a two billion dollar budget shortfall um you're either going
to have to cut a lot of jobs of public employees
01:14:03
or you're going to have a city that's going to
go bankrupt and you know bonds are going to get defaulted on and at the same time you're going
to have this mass exodus of people and businesses
01:14:11
and it is a it is a very kind of unwinding not
right now um so it's it's a scary moment i don't
01:14:16
think there's a real great answer for for what
to do it's more nuanced but i think it i think it will happen mark my word san francisco
will file for bankruptcy in the next 10 years
01:14:26
wow i mean pelosi is just looking you know pelosi
held out a major city filing for maybe 15 maybe 15
01:14:33
years but yeah remember a big part of what pelosi
held out on the big thing she held out on in the
01:14:38
stimulus negotiations uh last month was for local
and state governments to get bail out support
01:14:45
uh in this stimulus package and she's
acutely aware she lives one block away from me down the road here she's acutely
aware of what's going on in san francisco
01:14:54
and the solution may not be to bail out these
cities and these states um if they're going to continue to operate the way they are because
it's um so the state needs to break in order to
01:15:04
rebuild well you need to cut budget i mean any
of us running a business know like you know if you have a little revenue coming in and you're
spending too much where the [ __ ] the money
01:15:12
coming from you can't just keep going to big papa
in dc and asking him for more money what about masayoshi-san maybe he'll he consider coming in
or maybe it's back maybe should we do it i really
01:15:31
francisco listen i i think chamath traumath is
right about san francisco being the proof of what
01:15:38
happens when you have a one-party system and i i
really hope that the the tech community the tech
01:15:44
liberals who are listening to this podcast they're
not going to listen to me because they probably you know think i'm too conservative but you know
tremoth is pretty liberal and um you know he makes
01:15:53
the right point and you know we cannot have a
one-party system that remains healthy for very
01:15:59
long we need the pendulum to swing back towards
the center and um you know i really hope that yeah
01:16:06
power corrupts absolute power corrupts absolutely
as you've as you've said many times yeah it's true that's yeah lord acton said that we this
is literally what the dark knight batman series is
01:16:20
about it's literally about not having a basic
standard of policing and allowing criminals to
01:16:28
run a city we've turned into a goddamn comic book
like you have to arrest people who commit crimes
01:16:36
okay and and i'm sorry if that hurts your feelings
and one of the things that's beat people up yeah
01:16:42
you're right and one of the things that's
like the comic book is the sense of fatalism you know it's like everybody knows san francisco
is broken but nobody thinks they can do anything
01:16:50
about it that's really the tragedy of it that
is the tragedy and you know what if any of us
01:16:55
i've said it before i'm like i know exactly how
you can stop all these car break-ins you there's
01:17:00
a thing called the bait car you put 10 bait cars
out you put cameras in them and now that einstein has spoken boys i love you i love you all i miss
you all i just can't wait to see you again and uh
01:17:13
for those of you who would like to advertise on
podcast the advertising rate has been set at 10
01:17:20
million dollars a year for however many episodes
we we do i will read the ad at the end of the show
01:17:26
if you give 10 million dollars to the charity of
chamot's picking which apparently is going to be
01:17:31
san francisco i think that'll balance point seven
percent of the budget uh follow friedberg on the
01:17:38
twitter follow david sacks follow champion if you
like the show tell your friends and write a review
01:17:44
or don't we don't care we just do this
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01:17:51
recommendations for the love of god i don't
know how many people are begging to be on
01:17:56
the show it's there's room enough for four
people maybe on a live show bestie guesties
01:18:02
you're not getting your ceo of your whatever
company on the show period end of story and
01:18:08
i cannot introduce you to chamoth to spack
your company enough of that love you besties