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all right everybody uh let's get the show started here wait wait Jason why you wearing a tux what's going on there
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oh well it's time for a very emotional segment we do hear on the all-in podcast I just got to get myself
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composed for this H Jason are you okay I'm I'm gonna be okay I think it looks like you're fighting back at tier what's
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yeah this is always a tough one this year we tragically lost Giants in our industry these individuals bravely own
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their craft at open AI before departing Ilia sasver he left in he left us in [Music]
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May Yan Leica also left in May Sean shman tragically left us in August wait these are AI employees yes s
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left on Wednesday Bob mcru also left on Wednesday Too Short too short and Mera moradi also left us tragically on
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Wednesday we lost miror too yeah and Greg Brockman is on extended leave the enforcer he left too thank you for your
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service your memories will live on as training data and may your memories be a vesting let your winners
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ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it
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[Music] Queen my goodness all those losses wow that is three in one day three in one
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day my goodness I thought open AI was nothing without its [Laughter] people I well I mean this is a this is a
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great whoa we lost something come back wait oh wait what this is like the photo it's like
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the photo and Back to the Future wow they're just all gone wait oh no don't worry he's replacing everybody here we
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go he replacing with a g700 a Bugatti and I guess Sam's got mountains of cash so don't worry he's got a backup plan
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jamas anyway as an industry and as leaders in the industry the show sends its regards to Sam and the open AI team
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on their tragic losses and congratulations on the $150 billion doll value and you're 7%
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Sam now just cashed in10 billion apparently so congratulations to fan of uh friend of the Pod Sam amen is the
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round that's all reported out of some article right that's not like confirmed or anything is all of that done I mean
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it's reportedly allegedly that he's going to have 7% of the company and we can jump right into our first story I
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mean what I'm saying is has the money been wired and the docks been sign according to reports this round is
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contingent on not being a um nonprofit anymore and sorting that all out they have to remove the profit
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cap and do the seor there's some article that reported this right none of us Bloomberg it's not some article it was
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Bloomberg and and it got a lot of traction and it was re-reported by a lot of places and I don't see anyone
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disputing it so is mainstream media we trust the mainstream media in this case because think I think that when we could
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do a good bit yeah that's mine no I think that Bloomberg Bloomberg reported it based on obviously talks that are
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ongoing with investors who have committed to this round yeah and no one's disputing it has anyone said it's
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not true this has been speculated for months the $150 billion valuation raising something in the range of six
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to7 billion if you do the math on that and Bloomberg is correct that Sam mman got his 7% I guess the reality is you
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can't raise $6 billion dollar without probably meeting with a few dozen firms and some number of Junior people in
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those few dozen firms are having a conversation or two with reporters so you can kind of see how it gets out all
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right and before we get to our uh first story there about open AI congratulations to chamath let's pull up
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the photo here he was a featured guest on uh The Alex Jones Show no sorry I'm sorry uh that would be Joe Rogan
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congratulations on coming to Austin and being on Joe Rogan what was it like to do a three-hour podcast
00:04:30
with Jo Rogan it's great I mean I loved it he's really awesome he's super cool it's good to do long form stuff like
00:04:39
this so that I can actually talk clearly is the limitation of this podcast is the
00:04:43
other three of us finally you have found a way to make it about yourself um I saw
00:04:49
a comment somebody commented like oh wow it's like amazing to hear chth expand on
00:04:53
topics about the constant eruptions by Jal also known as moderation someone called me someone called me Fran
00:05:03
or Fran from the 70s Show I thought that was funny the the amount of trash talking in Rogan's YouTube comments it's
00:05:11
next level it is it is it is the wild wildd west uh in in terms of the comment section on YouTube yeah um a bunch of
00:05:21
comments asking Jak why do you call it Alex Jones is that cuz it's just a Texas short podcaster who short and stout and
00:05:27
they look similar just a but I mean it looks like Alex Jones uh sort of lifting weights
00:05:34
actually no they're both the same height and yeah both saw joean 25 years ago doing standup I have
00:05:40
a photo with him at the club it was like a small Club in San Francisco and we hung out with him afterwards he was just
00:05:47
like a nobody back in the day was like a stand-up guy right now he's uberstar well you have to go back
00:05:53
pretty far for Joe Rogan to be a nobody I mean he had a TV show for a long time and two of them in fact
00:06:00
comic for a while stand up comic yeah Fear Factor that's right that's also do Survivor or one of those like so I think
00:06:08
and then the UFC I mean this guy's got four four blew up UFC yeah yeah well I mean I think he got the UFC out of Fear
00:06:17
Factor and being a UFC fighter and a comedian and there's like a famous story where like Dana White was pursuing him
00:06:25
and he was like I don't know and then Dana White's like I'll send a plane for you you can bring your friend he's like
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okay fine I'll do it he did it for free and then Dana White pursued him heavily to become the voice of the UFC and yeah
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obviously it's grown tremendously and it's you know worth billions of dollars okay so how is open AI worth 150 billion
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dollars can anyone app well why don't we get into the topic should we make the bull case and the bear case all right
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open AI as we were just joking in the opening segment is trying to convert into a for profit benefit Corporation
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that's a BC Corp it just means we'll explain bcorp later Sam wman is reportedly I thought they're converting
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to a C Corp no it's the same thing B Corp doesn't benefit Corporation is a cc Corporation variant that is not a
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nonprofit but the board of director Sachs is required not only to be a fiduciary for all shareholders but also
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for the stated mission of the company that's my understanding of a b Corp am I right freberg external stakeholders yeah
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so like the environment or Society or whatever but it from all other kind of legal tax factors it's the same as a CP
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and it's a way to I guess signal to investors the market employees that you care about something more than just
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profit so famous most famous borp I think is Toms is that the shoe company Toms that's a famous B Corp somebody
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will look it up here pagonia yeah that falls into that category so for profit with a mission Reuters has cited
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anonymous sources close to the company that the plan is still being hashed out with lawyers and shareholders and the
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timeline isn't certain but what's being discussed is that the uh nonprofit will continue to exist as a minority
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shareholder in the new company how much of a minority shareholder I guess is uh the devil's in
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the detail there do they own 1% or 49% the uh very much discussed freedberg 100x profit cap for investors will be
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removed that means investors like venod friend of the Pod and Reed Hoffman also friend
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of the Pod could see a 100x turn into a,x or more according to the Bloomberg report Sam waltman's going to get his
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Equity finally 7% that would put him at around 10.5 billion if this is all true and openi could be valued as high as
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$150 billion we'll get into all the shenanigans but let's start with your question freeberg and since you asked it
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I'm going to Boomerang it back to you make the bull case for $150 $150 billion valuation the bull case would be that
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the moat in the business with respect to model performance and infrastructure gets
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extended with the large amount of capital that they're raising they aggressively deploy it they are very
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strategic and tactical with respect to how they deploy that infrastructure to continue to improve
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model performance and as a result continue to extend their advantage in both consumer and Enterprise
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applications the API tools and so on that they offer and so they can maintain uh both kind of model and application
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performance leads that they have today across the board I would say like the the 01 model uh their voice application
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Sora has not been released publicly but if it does and it looks like what it's been demoed to be it's certainly ahead
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of the pack so there's a lot of uh aspects of of open AI today that kind of makes
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them a leader and if they can deploy infrastructure to maintain that lead and not let Google Microsoft Amazon and
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others catch up then their ability to use that Capital wisely keeps them ahead and ultimately as we all know there's a
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multi-trillion dollar market to capture here making lots of verticals lots of applications lots of products so they
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could become a a true kind of global player here plus the extension into Computing which I'm excited to talk
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about later when we get into this Computing stuff Sachs here's a chart of open A's Revenue growth
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that has been piec meal together from various sources at various times but you'll see here they are
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reportedly as of June of 2024 on a $3.4 billion run rate for this year after hitting two billion in 23 1.3 billion in
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October of 23 and then back in 2022 was reported they only had 28 million in Revenue so this a pretty pretty hot a
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pretty a pretty big shriek here in terms of Revenue growth I would put it at 50 times Topline Revenue 150 billion
00:11:05
valuation you want to give us the bease maybe or the bull case well so the The Whisper numbers I heard was that their
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revenue run rate for this year was in the four to six billion range which is a little higher than that so you're right
00:11:19
if it's really more like 3.4 this valuation is about 50 times current Revenue but if it's more like 5 billion
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then it's only 30 times and if it's growing % year-over-year it's only 15 times next year so depending what the
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numbers actually are the $150 billion valuation could be warranted I don't think 15
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times Ford ARR is a high valuation for a company that has this kind of strategic
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opportunity I think it all comes down to the durability of its comparative advantage
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here I think there's no question that open AI is the leader of the pack it has the most advanced AI model models it's
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got the best developer ecosystem the best apis it keeps rolling out new products and the question is just how
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durable that Advantage is is there really a moe to any of this for example meta just announced llama 3.2 which can
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do voice and this is roughly at the same time that open aai just released its voice API so the open source ecosystem
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is kind of hot on open ai's heels the large companies Google Microsoft so forth they're hot on their heels too
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although it seems like they're further behind where meta is and the question is just can open AI maintain its lead can
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it consolidate its lead can it develop some Moes if so it's on track to be the next trillion
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dollar big tech company but if not it could be eroded and you could see the value of open AI get get commoditized
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and we'll look back on it as kind of a cautionary tail okay chth do us a favor here if there is a be case what is it
00:13:00
okay let's steeland the be case yes that's what I'm asking please so one would just be on
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the fundamental technology itself and I think the version of that story would go
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that the underlying Frameworks that people are using to make these models great is well
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described and available in open source on top of that there are at least two viable open source models that are as
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good or better at any point in time than open AI so what that would mean is that
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the value of those models the economic value basically goes to zero and it's a consumer
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surplus for the people that use it so that's very hard theoretically to monetize I think the second part of the
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case would be that specific Al meta becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta AI into all of the
00:14:06
critical apps that they control because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis so
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that would mean WhatsApp Instagram messenger the Facebook app and threads gets refactored in a way where instead
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of leaving that application to go to a chat GPT like app you would just stay in the
00:14:31
app and then the companion to that would be that Google also does the same thing
00:14:40
with their version in front of search so those two big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in
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giving you a reason to not have to go to chat gbt because a their answers are just as good and B they're right there
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in a few less clicks for you yeah I'm so that would be the that would be the second
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piece the third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves and it
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basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data which is a cost problem meaning if
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you're going to invent synthetic data you're going to have to spend money to do it and the large companies Facebook
00:15:23
Microsoft Amazon Google Apple have effectively infinite money compared to any startup
00:15:30
and then the fourth which is the most quizzical one is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's
00:15:38
going on it reads a little bit like a tel Nolla I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company
00:15:46
that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much highle churn and I've but and I've also never
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seen a company have this much liquidity and so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a
00:16:04
trillion dollar company and why when things are just starting to cook would you leave if you are technically
00:16:11
enamored with what you're building so if you had to construct the barcase I think
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those would be the four things open source front door competition the move to synthetic data
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and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say May maybe there's a fire where there's all this
00:16:31
smoke okay I think this is very well put and I have been using chat GPT and Claude and Gemini
00:16:40
exclusively I stopped using Google search and I also stopped Sachs asking people on my team to do stuff before I
00:16:48
asked chat GPT to do it specifically freeberg the 01 version and the 01 version is distinctly different have you
00:16:56
gentlemen been using 01 like on a daily okay so we can have a really interesting
00:17:01
conversation here I did something on my other podcast this week in startups that
00:17:05
I'll show you right now that was crazy yesterday is a g is a game changer it's the first real it's the first real Chain
00:17:14
of Thought production system yes that I think we've seen are you using o1 preview or ow mini uh I am using o1
00:17:22
preview now let me show you what I did here just just so the audience can level set here if you're not watching us go to
00:17:27
YouTube and type in in and and you can you can watch us we do video here so I was analyzing you know just some early
00:17:36
stage uh deals and cap tables and I put in here hey a startup just raised some money at this valuation here's what the
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friends and family invested the accelerator the seed investor Etc in other words like the history the
00:17:47
investment history in a company what 01 does distinctly differently than the previous versions and the previous
00:17:54
version I felt was 3 to 6 months ahead of competitors this is a year ahead of competitor s and so here shth if you
00:18:01
look it said it thought for 77 seconds and if you click the down arrow saxs what you'll see is it gives you an idea
00:18:09
of what its rationale is for interpreting and what secondary query is it's doing in order this is called Chain of
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Thought and this is the underlying Mega model that sits on top of the llms and the mega model effectively The Chain of
00:18:27
Thought approach is the model asks itself the question how should I answer this question right and
00:18:35
then it comes up with an answer and then it says now based on that what are the steps I should take to answer the
00:18:40
question so the model keeps asking itself questions related to the structure of the question that you asked
00:18:48
and then it comes up with a series of steps that it can then call the llm to do to fill in the blanks link them all
00:18:55
together and come up with the answer it's the same way that a human train of thought works and it really is the the
00:19:00
kind of ultimate evolution of what a lot of people have said these systems need to become which is a much more call it
00:19:07
intuitive approach to answering questions rather than just predictive text based on the single statement you
00:19:13
made and it really has changing the game and everyone is going to chase this and
00:19:17
follow this it is the new paradigm for for how these AI kind of systems will work and by the way what this did was
00:19:25
what prompt Engineers were doing or prompt engineering websites we're doing which was trying to help you construct
00:19:30
your question and so if you look to this one it says listing disparities I'll compile a cap table with Investments and
00:19:37
valuations building the cap table accessing the share valuation breaking down ownership breaking down ownership
00:19:42
Etc evaluating the terms and then it checks its work a bit it waits investment options and you can see this
00:19:47
is a this is fired off like two dozen different queries to as fre correctly pointed out you know build this chain
00:19:58
and it got incredible answers explain the formulas so it's thinking about what your next question would be and this
00:20:06
when I share this with my team it was like a super game Cher uh Sach you had some thoughts here well yeah I mean this
00:20:14
is pretty impressive and just to build on what freeberg was saying about Chain of Thought where this All Leads is to
00:20:20
agents where you can actually tell the AI to do work for you you give it an objective it can break the objective
00:20:28
down into tasks and then it can work each of those tasks and open AI at a recent meeting with investors said that
00:20:36
PhD level reasoning was next on its road map and then agents weren't far behind that they've now released the at least
00:20:43
the preview of the PHD level reasoning with this 01 model so I think we can expect an announcement pretty soon about
00:20:49
agents yeah and so the and if you think about if you think about business value you know we think a lot about this is
00:20:55
like where's the SAS opportunity and all this the soft off as a service opportunity it's going to be an agents I
00:21:02
think we'll ultimately look back on these sort of chat models as a little bit of a parlor trick compared to what
00:21:08
agents are going to do in the workplace if you've ever been to a call center or an operations center they're also called
00:21:15
service factories it's assembly lines of people doing very complicated knowledge
00:21:21
work but ultimately you can unravel exactly what the chain is there The Chain of Thought that goes into their
00:21:28
decisions it's it's very complicated and that's why you have to have humans doing
00:21:32
it but you could imagine that once system integrators or or Enterprise SAS apps go into these places go into these
00:21:42
companies they integrate the data and then they map out the workflow you could replace a lot of these steps in the
00:21:49
workflow with agents yeah by the way it's not just it's not just call centers I had a conversation with um I'm on the
00:21:56
board of a company with the CEO the other day and he was like well we're going to hire an analyst that's going to
00:22:01
sit between our kind of retail sales operations and do the and you know figure out what's working to drive
00:22:07
marketing decisions and I'm like no you're not like I I really think that that would be a mistake because today
00:22:13
you can use 01 and describe or just feed it the data and describe the analysis you want to get out of that data and
00:22:21
within a few minutes and I've now done this probably a dozen times in the last week with different projects internally
00:22:26
at my company it gives you the enre answer that an analyst would have taken days to put together for you and if you
00:22:32
think about what an analyst's job has been historically is they take data and then they manipulate it and the big
00:22:38
evolution in software over the last decade and a half has been tools that give that analyst leverage to do that
00:22:45
data manipulation more quickly like Tableau and you know R and all sorts of different toolkits that are out there
00:22:51
but now you don't even need the analyst because the analyst is the Chain of Thought it's the prompting from the
00:22:57
model and it's completely going to change how knowledge work is done everyone that owns a function no longer
00:23:03
needs an analyst the analyst is the model that's sitting on the computer in front of you right now and you tell it
00:23:08
what you want and not days later but minutes later you get your answer it's completely revolutionary in um uh ad hoc
00:23:18
uh knowledge work as well as kind of this repetitive structured knowledge this is such a good point freeberg the
00:23:23
ad hoc piece of it when we're processing 20,000 applications for funding a year we do a 100 plus meetings a week the
00:23:30
analysts on our team are now putting in the transcripts um and key questions about markets and they are getting so
00:23:38
smart so fast that you know when somebody comes to them with a Marketplace in diamonds their
00:23:45
understanding of the diamond Marketplace becomes so rich so fast that we can evaluate companies faster then we're
00:23:52
also seeing uh chth uh before we call our lawyers when we have a legal question about a document we start
00:23:58
putting in you know let's say the the standard note template or the standard safe template we put in the new one and
00:24:05
there's a really cool project by Google called notebook L LM where you can put in multiple documents and you can start
00:24:11
asking questions so imagine you take every single legal documents acts that Yammer had when you had chamath as an
00:24:18
investor I'm not sure if he was on the board and you can start asking questions about the documents and we have had
00:24:24
people make changes to these documents and it immediately finds them explains them and so everybody's just getting so
00:24:30
goddamn smart so fast using these tools that I insisted that every person on the
00:24:35
team when they hit control tab it opens a chat gp4 window in 01 and we burned out our credits immediately like it
00:24:43
stopped us it said you're you're you have to stop using it for the rest of the month Cham your thoughts on this
00:24:48
we're seeing it in real time in 890 what I'll tell you is what sck said is totally right there's so
00:24:58
many companies that have very complicated processes that are a combination of well- Tred and well-meaning people
00:25:08
and bad software and what I mean by bad software is that some other third party came in listened to what your business
00:25:19
process was and then wrote this clunky deterministic code usually on top of some system of
00:25:24
record charged you tens or hundreds of millions of for it and then left and will support it only if you keep paying
00:25:31
them millions of dollars a year that whole thing is so nuts because the ability for people to do work I think
00:25:37
has been very much constrained and it's constrained by people trying to do the right thing
00:25:42
using really really terrible software and all of that will go away the radical idea that I would put out there is I
00:25:50
think that systems of record no longer exist because they don't need to and the reason is because all you
00:25:57
have is data and you have a and just explain to people what system of record is just so so inside of a company you'll
00:26:04
have a handful of systems that people would say are the single source of truth they're the things
00:26:09
that are used for reporting compliance and example would be for your general ledger so toet record your revenues You'
00:26:21
use Nets or you'd use Oracle GL or you'd use workday financials then you'd have a
00:26:27
different system of record for all of your Revenue generating activities so who are all of the people you sell to
00:26:34
how are sales going what is the PIP there's companies like Salesforce or Sugar CRM then there's a system of
00:26:42
record for all the employees that work for you all the benefits they have what is their salary this is hris so the
00:26:48
point is that the software economy over the last 20 years and this is trillions of dollars of market cap and hundreds of
00:26:57
billions of Revenue you have been built on this premise that we will create this
00:27:03
system of record you will build apps on top of the system of record and the knowledge workers will come in and
00:27:10
that's how they will get work done and I think that saaks is right this totally flips that on its head instead what will
00:27:16
happen is people will provision an agent and roughly direct what they want the outcome to be and they'll be process
00:27:24
independent they won't care how they do it they just want the answer so I think two things happen the obvious thing that
00:27:31
happens in that world is systems of record lose a grip on the Vault that they had in terms
00:27:40
of the data that runs a company you don't necessarily need it with in the same Reliance and Primacy that you did
00:27:47
five and 10 years ago that'll have an impact to the software economy and the second thing that I
00:27:54
think is even more important than that is that then the omic size of companies changes because each company will get
00:28:03
much more leverage from using software and few people versus lots of people with a few pieces of software and so
00:28:09
that inversion I think creates tremendous potential for operating leverage all right your thought Sachs
00:28:15
you operate in the SAS space uh with system of records and investing in these type of companies give us your take well
00:28:22
it's interesting we were having a version of this conversation last week on the Pod and I started getting texts
00:28:28
from Ben off as he was listening to it and then oh he he called me and I think he got a little bit triggered by the
00:28:34
idea that systems of record like Salesforce are going to be obsolete in this new AI era and he made a very
00:28:41
compelling case to me about why that wouldn't happen which is yeah well first of all I think AI models are predictive
00:28:48
I mean at the end of the day they're predicting the next set of texts and so forth and when it comes to like your
00:28:53
employee list or your customer list you just want to have a source of Truth you want it to be 98% accurate you just want
00:29:00
it to be 100% accurate you want to know if the federal government asks you for the tax ID numbers of your employees you
00:29:06
just won't be able to give it to them if Wall Street analysts asks you for your customer list and what the Gap revenue
00:29:11
is you just won't be able to provide that you don't want AI models figuring it out so you're still going to need a
00:29:16
system of record furthermore he made the point that you still need databases you still need
00:29:23
Enterprise security if you're dealing with Enterprises you still need compliance you still need sharing models
00:29:28
there's all these aspect all these things that have been built on top of the database that SAS company's been
00:29:33
doing for 25 years and then the final point that I think is compelling is that Enterprise customers don't want to DIY
00:29:41
it right they don't want to have to figure out how to put this together and you can't just hand them an llm and say
00:29:47
here you go there's a lot of work that is needed in order to make these models productive and so at a minimum you're
00:29:56
going to need system integrators and Consultants to come in there connect hold on just connect all the Enterprise
00:30:02
data to these models map the workflows you have to do that now how's that different from how this this clunky
00:30:09
software is sold today I mean look I I don't want to take away from the quality of the company that Mark has built and
00:30:17
what he's done for the cloud economy so let's just put that aside but I wish this is what we could have actually all
00:30:22
been on stage and talked about I told him that when he was at the summit I said that because I agree with basically
00:30:29
every premise of those three things number one systems integrators exist today to build apps on top of these
00:30:34
things why do you think you have companies like Viva how can a 20 billion dollar plus company get built on top of
00:30:40
Salesforce it's because it doesn't do what it's meant to do that's why app stores are a great way to allow
00:30:50
people to build on your platform and and and cover those Niche cases the point I'm trying to make is that's no
00:30:55
different than the economy that exists today is just going to transform to different groups of people number one
00:30:59
well by the way he said he's willing to come on the PO and talk about this very issue but just with
00:31:05
you talk all us now great he'll come on the Pod and discuss whether AI makes sass obsolete a lot of people are asking
00:31:12
that question let's talk about it next year at the summit can you talk about his uh philanthropy first okay let's get
00:31:18
back to focus here let's get focused everybody love you mark who's coming to dream for us raise your hand I want to
00:31:26
make another point the second point is that when you have agents I think that we are overestimating what a system of
00:31:33
record did David what you talked about is actually just an encrypted file or it's a bunch of rows in some database or
00:31:39
it's in some data Lake somewhere you don't need to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to wrap your Revenue
00:31:49
in something that says it's a system of record you don't need that actually you can just pipe that stuff directly from
00:31:56
stripe into Snowflake and you can just transform it and do what you will with it and then report it I'll tell you
00:32:02
could do that today it's just that that's an interesting point through stake dinners and golf outings and all
00:32:07
this stuff we've sold Ci's this idea that you need to wrap it in something called a system of record and all I'm
00:32:15
saying is when you confront the total cost of that versus what the alternative that is clearly going to happen in the
00:32:23
next 5 or 10 years irrespective of whether any of us Build It or Not it'll be not be able to you just won't be able
00:32:29
to justify it I'll say there's there's probably also an aspect of this that we can't
00:32:37
predict what is going to work with respect to data structure so right now all of um all of the the tooling for AI
00:32:45
is on the front end and we haven't yet Unleashed AI on the back end which is if you told the AI here's all the data
00:32:52
ingest I'm going to be doing from all these different points in my business figure out what you want to do with all
00:32:58
that data the AI will eventually come up with its own data structure and data system nothing that will look nothing
00:33:07
like that's already happening right and so that's nothing like what we have today in the same vein that we don't
00:33:13
understand how the translation Works in a in an in an llm we don't understand how a lot of the function works a lot of
00:33:18
the data structure and data architecture we won't understand clearly because it's
00:33:21
going to be opusc by the model driving the the development there are open source agentic Frameworks that already
00:33:27
do freeberg what you're saying that so it's not true that it's not been done it's already sure so maybe it's being
00:33:33
done right that's it hasn't been fully implemented to replace this record there are companies I'll give you an example
00:33:39
of one like mechanical Orchard they'll go into the most gnarliest of environments and what they will do is
00:33:45
they will launch these agents that observe it's sort of what I told you guys before the io stream of these apps
00:33:51
and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically I don't understand why
00:33:58
we think that there's a world where customer quality and NPS would not go Skyhigh for a company that has some old
00:34:05
Legacy forr system and now they can just pay you know mechanical Orchard a few million bucks and they'll just replace
00:34:11
it in a matter of months it's G to happen right yeah that's the very interesting piece for me is I'm you know
00:34:17
watching startups you know working on this the AI first ones I think are going to come to it with a totally different
00:34:24
cost structure the idea of paying for seats and I mean some of the these seats are 5,000 per person year you nailed it
00:34:31
a year ago when you were like oh you mentioned some company that had like flat pricing at first by the way when
00:34:37
you said that I thought this is nuts but you're right it actually makes a ton of
00:34:42
sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive
00:34:51
as a company that's 10 times as big as you you can afford to Flat price your software because you can just work
00:34:58
backwards from what margin structure you want and it's still meaningfully cheaper
00:35:02
than any other alternative a a lot of startups now are doing consumption based pricing so they're saying you know how
00:35:09
many um how many sales calls are you doing how many are we analyzing as opposed to how many sales Executives do
00:35:16
you have because when you have agents as we're talking about those agents are going to do a lot of the work so we're
00:35:23
going to see the number of people working at companies become fixed and I think the St team size that we're seeing
00:35:30
at a lot of large companies is only going to continue it's going to be down and to the right and if you think you're
00:35:35
going to get a high-paying job at a big tech company and you have to beat the agent you're going to have to beat the
00:35:41
Maestro who has five agents working for them I think this is going to be a completely different world uh Cham this
00:35:48
I I want to get back to openi with a couple other pieces so let's wrap this up get
00:35:53
next last word for you last word so look look I I think that on the whole I agree
00:36:00
with Benny off here that there's more net new opportunity for AI companies whether they be startups or you know
00:36:07
existing big companies like Salesforce that are trying to do AI then there is disruption I think there will be some
00:36:13
disruption it's very hard for us to see exactly what AI is going to look like in
00:36:17
five or 10 years so I don't want to Discount the possibility that ex there will be some disruption of existing
00:36:23
players but I think on the whole there's more net new opportunity for example the
00:36:27
most highly valued public software company right now in terms of AR multiple is paler and I think that's
00:36:35
largely because the market perceives paler is having a big AI opportunity what is Pal's approach the first thing
00:36:41
paler does when they go into a customer is they integrate with all of its systems and they're dealing with the
00:36:47
largest Enterprises they're dealing with the government the Pentagon Department of Defense the first thing they do is go
00:36:52
in and integrate with all of these Legacy systems and they collect all of the data in one place they call it
00:37:00
creating a digital twin and once all the data is in one place with the right permissions and safeguards now analysts
00:37:07
can start working it and that was their historical value proposition but in addition AI can now start working that
00:37:13
problem so anything that the analyst could work now ai is going to be able to work and so they're in an ideal position
00:37:19
to master these new AI workflows so what is the point I'm making it's just that you can't just throw an llm at these
00:37:26
large enter Rises you have to go in there and integrate with the existing systems it's not about ripping out the
00:37:32
existing systems because that's just a lot of headaches that nobody needs it's generally an easier approach just to
00:37:38
collect except when the renewal comes what happens when you have to you know billion on something yeah and then
00:37:45
you're going to renegotiate or you're going to spend a billion dollars again five years from now it just doesn't seem
00:37:49
very likely there's going to be a lot of Hardcore negotiations going on shama people are going to ask for 20% off 50%
00:37:55
off and people going to be more competitive that's all I Su I suspect palun go to market when they start to
00:38:01
release scale they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other Alternatives and it so I think
00:38:07
that when you look at the impacts and pricing that all of these open source and close Source model
00:38:17
companies have now introduced in terms to the price per token what we've seen is just a massive step function lower
00:38:25
right so it is incredible deflationary so the things that sit on top are going to get priced as a
00:38:33
function of that of that cost which means it will be an order of magnitude cheaper than the stuff that it replaces
00:38:39
which means that a company would almost have to purposely want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they
00:38:47
don't have to they would need to make that as an explicit decision and I think that very few companies will be in a
00:38:54
position to be that Cavalier in 5 and 10 10 years so you're either going to rebase the revenues of a bunch of these
00:39:03
existing deterministic companies or you're going to create an entire economy of new ones that have a fraction of the
00:39:09
revenues today but a very different profitability profile I I think whenever you're dealing with a whenever you're
00:39:16
dealing with A disruption as big as this current one I think it's always tempting
00:39:21
to think in terms of the existing Pi getting disrupted and and shrunk as oppos to the pie getting so big with new
00:39:29
use cases that on the whole the ecosystem benefits no no no I agree with that I suspect That's What's happen no I
00:39:37
I I agree with that my my only point is that the pie can get bigger while the slices get much much
00:39:44
smaller well I mean I right between the two of you I think is um the truth because what's happening is if you look
00:39:52
at investing it's very hard to get into these late stage companies because they don't need as much Capital because to
00:39:58
your point shth they when they do hit profitability with 10 or 20 people the revenue per employee is going way up if
00:40:07
you look at Google Uber Airbnb and Facebook meta they have the same number or less employees and they did three
00:40:14
years ago but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year which means in but two to three years each of those
00:40:21
companies has doubled Revenue per employee so that concept of more efficiency and then that trickles down
00:40:28
Sachs to the startup investing space where you and I are I'm a preed seed investor you're a seed series a investor
00:40:34
if you don't get in in those three four rounds I think it's going to be really expensive and the companies are not
00:40:38
going to need as much money Downstream speaking of of investing in late stage companies we never Clos the loop on the
00:40:45
whole open AI thing what did we think of the fact that they're completely changing the structure of this company
00:40:52
they're changing it into a corporation from the nonprofit and Sam's now getting it 101
00:40:57
billion stock package he's not in for the money he has health insurance sex but we never never Congress I don't
00:41:06
need money enough money I just needed the health insurance pull the clip up Nick pull the clip up I mean it's the
00:41:11
funniest clip ever C no they said Congress watch this this what in Congress you make a lot of money do you
00:41:21
I make no I paid enough for health insurance I have no equity and open AI really that's interesting you need a
00:41:26
large I need a what you need a lawyer or an agent I I'm doing this cuz I love it thank you it's the greatest look at
00:41:36
me don't believe him I this can I ask you a question there saxs are you doing this Venture Capital where you put the
00:41:44
money in the startups cuz you love it or cuz you're looking to get another Home In a Coal City and put more jet fuel in
00:41:53
that plane I need an answer for the people of the sovereign state of Mississippi no Louisiana that's John
00:41:59
Kennedy from louisi he's a very smart guy actually with a lot of you know sort of common
00:42:07
folk wisdom he got that simple talk simple talk we Shooters here actually yeah he's very funny but
00:42:16
he's very funny if you listen to him he knows how to slice and dice you might need to get yourself uh one of them
00:42:23
fancy Agents from Hollywood or an attorney from the Wilson Sun cini Corporation to renegotiate your contract
00:42:31
son because you're worth a lot more from what I can gather in your performance today than just some simple healthare
00:42:37
and uh I hope you took the Blue Cross Blue Shield I would like to make two semi-serious observations let's go you
00:42:44
please get us back on track I think the first is that there's going to be a lot of people that are looking at the
00:42:49
architecture of this conversion because if it passes muster everybody should do it think about this model let's just
00:42:57
that you're in a market and you start as a nonprofit what that really means is you
00:43:02
pay no income tax so for a long time you put out a little bit of the percentage of whatever you
00:43:11
earn but you can now outspend and outco compete all of your competitors and then
00:43:17
once you win you flip to a corporation that's a great hack on the tax code and you let the donators get first bite of
00:43:26
the Apple if you do convert because remember venod and Hoffman got all their shares on the conversion the other way
00:43:33
will also work as well because it's there's no there's nothing that says you can't go in the other direction so let's
00:43:38
assume that you're already a for-profit company but you're in a space with a bunch of competitors can't you just do
00:43:45
this conversion in Reverse become a nonprofit again you pay no income tax so now you are economically advantaged
00:43:54
relative to your competitors and then when they wither and die or you can outspend them you flip back to a
00:44:01
for-profit again I think the the point is that there's a lot of people that are going to watch this closely
00:44:10
and if it's legal and it's allowed I I just don't understand why everybody wouldn't do this yeah I mean that was
00:44:17
elon's Point as well and I mean the second thing which is just more of like cultural observation is and you
00:44:26
brought up Elon my comment to you guys yesterday and I'll just make the comment today
00:44:31
it's a little bit disheartening to see a situation where Elon built something absolutely incredible defied every
00:44:40
expectation and then had the justice system take $ 55 billion away from him his payment package you're referring to
00:44:50
at payment package the options in Tesla and then on the other side Sam's going to pull some like this
00:44:58
off definitely pushing the boundaries and he's going to make 10 billion and I just think when you put those two things
00:45:06
in contrast that's not how the system should probably work I think is what most people would say freeberg you've
00:45:13
been a little quiet here any thoughts on the transaction the nonprofit to for-profit if you were looking at that
00:45:19
in what you're doing do you see a way that ohal could take a nonprofit status raise a bunch of money through donations
00:45:27
for virtuous work then license those patents to your for-profit it would that be advantageous to you and and do you
00:45:33
think this could become absolutely zero idea I have no idea what they're doing I
00:45:38
don't know how they're converting a nonprofit to a for-profit none of us have the details on this there's there
00:45:42
may be significant tax implications payments they need to make I don't think any of us know I certainly don't I don't
00:45:48
know if there's actually a real benefit here if there is I'm sure everyone would
00:45:52
do it no one's doing it so there's probably a reason why it's difficult I don't know been done a couple times the
00:45:58
the Mozilla Foundation did it we talked about that in our previous episode Saks you want to you want to wrap us up here
00:46:02
on the corporate structure any final thoughts I mean Elon put in 50 million I think he gets the same as Sam don't you
00:46:09
think he should just chip off 7% for Elon and not that Elon needs the money where he's asking but I'm just wondering
00:46:15
why Elon doesn't get the 7% and get or you know if put in 50 did he put in $50 million he put in 50 million is the
00:46:23
report right in the nonprofit yeah Hoffman put in 10 look I said on a previous show that this organizational
00:46:30
chart of open AI was ridiculously complicated and they should go clean it up they should open up the books and
00:46:35
straighten everyone out and I also said that as part of that they could give Sam
00:46:40
Alman a CEO option Grant and they should also give Elon some Fair compensation for being the seed investor who put in
00:46:47
the first $50 million and co-founder and what you're seeing is well they're kind
00:46:52
of doing that they're opening up the books they're straightening out the corporate stru
00:46:57
they're giving Sam his option Grant but they didn't do anything for Elon and I'm
00:47:02
not saying this as elon's friend I'm just saying that it's not really fair to basically go fix the original situation
00:47:10
you're making it into a for-profit you're giving everyone shares but the guy who puts in the Original Seed Capal
00:47:16
doesn't get anything that's ridiculous and you know what they're basically saying to Elon is if you don't like it
00:47:23
just sue us I mean that's basically what they're doing and I said that they should go clean this up but they should
00:47:30
make it right with everybody so how do you not make it right with Elon I haven't talked him about this but he
00:47:36
reacted on X saying this is really wrong it appeared to be a surprise to him I doubt he knew this was coming so the
00:47:42
company apparently made no effort to make things right with him and I think that that is a bit ridiculous if you're
00:47:50
going to clean this up if you're going to change the original purpose of this organization to being a standard
00:47:57
for-profit company where the CEO who previously said he wasn't going to get any compensation is now getting 10
00:48:04
billion of compensation how do you do that and then not clean it up for the co-founder who put in the first $50
00:48:10
million yeah that doesn't make sense to me and you know when Reed was on our pod
00:48:14
he he said well elon's Rich enough well that that's not a principled excuse I mean does venod ever act that way does
00:48:21
Reed ever act that way do they ever say well you know you don't need to do what's fair for me because I'm already
00:48:27
rich that's that's not a principled answer the argument that I heard was that Elon was given the opportunity to
00:48:33
invest along with Reed with VOD and he he declined to participate in the for-profit investing side that everyone
00:48:41
else participated we made that argument and I think it's the best argument the company has but let's think about that
00:48:46
argument maybe Elon was busy that week maybe Elon already felt like he had put all the money that he had allocated for
00:48:53
something like this into it because he put in a $50 million check whereas reput in 10 we don't know what Elon was
00:49:00
thinking at that time maybe there was a crisis at Tesla and he was just really busy the point is Elon shouldn't have
00:49:05
been obligated to put in more money into this Venture the fact of the matter is they're refactoring the whole Venture
00:49:13
Elon had an expectation when he put in the 50 million that this would be a nonprofit and stay a nonprofit and
00:49:19
they're changing that and if they change it they have to make things right with him it doesn't really matter whether he
00:49:24
had a a subsequent opportunity to to invest he wasn't obligated to to make that investment what he had an
00:49:31
expectation of is that his $50 million to be used for a philanthropic purpose and clearly it has not been yeah and In
00:49:39
fairness to a node he bought that incredible beachfront property and donated it to the public trust so we can
00:49:43
all Surf and have our Halloween party there so it's all good thank you venod for giving us that incredible Beach I
00:49:50
want to talk to you guys about interfaces that came up chth in your headwinds or your your your four pack of
00:49:56
reasons that you know open AI when you steal men the barcase could have challenges obviously we're seeing that
00:50:04
and it is emerging that meta is working on some AR glasses that are really impressive additionally I've installed
00:50:13
iOS 18 which is Apple intelligence that works on 15 phones and 16 phones 18 is the iOS did any of you installed the
00:50:21
beta of iOS 18 yet and use Siri it's pretty clear with this new one that you're going to be able to talk to Siri
00:50:27
as an llm like you do in chat GPT mode which I think means they will not make themselves dependent on chat GPT and
00:50:34
they will siphon off half the searches that would have gone to chat GPT so I see that as a serious sir is not very
00:50:40
good J kll and you know this because when you were driving me to the airport yesterday we tested it it didn't work
00:50:45
yes you tried you try he tried to he tries to execute this joke where he's like hey Siri sent choth poly haaa a
00:50:52
message and it was a very off-color message I'm not gonna say what it is was a spicy joke and then it's like okay
00:50:57
great sending Linda blah blah blah he like no stop like no don't send that joke to her it hallucinates it almost
00:51:04
sends it to some other you know some woman in his contact would have been really damaging it's not very good Jason
00:51:10
it's not very good well but what I will say is there are features of it where if
00:51:14
you squint a little bit you will see that Siri is going to be conversational so when I was talking to it with music
00:51:22
and you know you you can have a conversation with it and do math like you can do with cat GPT version and you
00:51:28
have Microsoft doing that with their co-pilot and now met is doing it at the top of each one so everybody's going to
00:51:35
try to inter intercept the queries and the voice interface so chat gp4 is now up against meta Siri Apple and Microsoft
00:51:44
for for that interface it's going to be challenging but let's talk about these meta glasses here meta showed off the AR
00:51:50
glasses that Nick will pull up right now these aren't goggles goggles look like ski goggles that that's what apple is
00:51:57
doing with their Vision Pro uh or when you see the meta Quest you know how those work those are VR with cameras
00:52:05
that will create a version of the world these are actual chunky sunglasses like the ones I was wearing earlier when I
00:52:11
was doing the bit so these let you operate in the real world and are supposedly extremely expensive they made
00:52:20
a thousand prototypes they were lending a bunch of influencers and folks like um
00:52:26
Gary vanderchuck uh use them and they're not ready for prime time but the way they work freeberg is there's a
00:52:32
wristband that will track your fingers and your wrist movement so you could be in a conversation like we are here on
00:52:38
the Pod and below the desk you could be you know moving your arm and hand around
00:52:42
to be doing replies to I don't know incoming messages or whatever it is what do you think of this AR vision of the
00:52:49
world and meta making this progress well I think it ties in a lot to the the AI discussion because I I think we're
00:52:58
really witnessing this big shift from and this big transition in Computing probably the biggest transition since
00:53:05
mobile you know we moved from Main frames to desktop computers everyone had kind of this computer on their desktop
00:53:12
but used a mouse and a keyboard to control it to mobile where you had a keyboard and clicking and touching on
00:53:17
the screen to do things on it and now to what I would call this kind of ambient Computing method and you know I think
00:53:25
the big difference is control and response in directed Computing you're kind of telling the computer what to do
00:53:32
you're controlling it you're using your mouse or your keyboard to to go to this website so you type in a website address
00:53:38
then you click on the thing that you want to click on and you kind of keep doing a series of work to get the
00:53:43
computer to go access the information that you ultimately want to achieve your objective but with ambient Computing you
00:53:50
can more kind of cleanly state your objective without this kind of directive process you can say hey I I want to say
00:53:57
I want to have dinner in New York next Thursday at the at a Michelin star restaurant at 5:30 book me something and
00:54:02
it's done and I think that there are kind of five core things that are needed for this to work um both in control and
00:54:09
response it's voice control gesture control and eye control are kind of the control pieces that replace you know
00:54:16
mice and clicking and touching and keyboards and then response is audio and kind of integrated visual which is the
00:54:23
idea of the goggles voice control works have you guys used the open AI voice control system lately I mean it is
00:54:29
really incredible I had my earphones in and I was like doing this exercise I was
00:54:33
trying to learn something so I told open AI to start quizzing me on this thing and I just did a 30 minute walk and
00:54:39
while I was walking it was asking me quiz questions and I would answer it tell me I was right or wrong it was
00:54:43
really this incredible dialogue experience so I think the voice control is there I don't know if you guys have
00:54:48
used Apple Vision Pro but gesture control is here today you can do single finger movements with apple Vision Pro
00:54:54
it triggers actions and I control is incredible you look at the letters you want to have kind of spelled out or you
00:54:59
look at the thing you want to activate and it does it so all of the control systems for this ambient Computing are
00:55:04
there and then the AI enables this kind of audio response where it speaks to you
00:55:09
and the big breakthrough that's needed that I don't think we're quite there yet but maybe Zuck is highlighting that
00:55:14
we're almost there and apple Vision Pro feels like it's almost there except it's
00:55:17
big and bulky and expensive is integrated visual where the ambient visual interface is always there and you
00:55:23
can kind of engage with it so there's this big change I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around
00:55:27
in 10 years I don't think we're going to have this like phone in our pocket that
00:55:30
we're like pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface
00:55:36
is going to go away I think so much of how Computing is done how much how we integrate with data in the world and how
00:55:42
the computer ultimately fetches that data and does stuff with it for us is going to completely change to this
00:55:47
ambient model so I'm um I'm pretty excited about this Evolution but I think that what we're seeing with Zuck what we
00:55:53
saw with apple Vision Pro and all of the open AI demos they all kind of converge
00:55:58
on this very incredible shift in Computing um that will kind of become this ambient system that exists
00:56:04
everywhere all the time and I know folks have kind of mentioned this in the past
00:56:07
but I think we're really seeing it kind of all come together now with these five
00:56:10
key things jamath any thoughts on Facebook's progress with ar and how that might
00:56:20
impact Computing and interfaces when paired with language models I think think David's right that there's
00:56:28
something that's going to be totally new and unexpected so I agree with that part of
00:56:36
what free Brook says I am still not sure that glasses are the perfect form factor
00:56:42
to be ubiquitous when you look at a phone a phone makes complete sense for literally everybody right man woman old
00:56:54
young every race every country of the world it's such a ubiquitously obvious form
00:57:06
factor but the thing is like that initial form factor was so different than what it replaced even if you looked
00:57:13
at like flip phones versus that first generation iPhone so I I do think freeberg you're right that there's like
00:57:20
this new way of interacting that is ready to explode onto the scene and I think that these guys have done a
00:57:29
really good job with these classes I mean like I give them a lot of credit for sticking with it and iterating
00:57:34
through it and getting it to this place it looks meaningfully better than the Vision Pro to be totally
00:57:40
honest but I'm still not convinced that we've explored the best of our creativity in terms of the devices that
00:57:47
we want to use with these AI models you need some visual interface I think the question is where is the visual
00:57:52
interface is it in the is in in the wall but do I mean well when you're asking like I want to watch chamath on Rogan
00:57:59
like I don't just want to hear I want to see like when I want to visualize stuff
00:58:03
I want to visualize it I want to look at the food I'm buying online I want to look at pictures of the restaurant I'm
00:58:08
GNA go to but how much of that time when you say those things are you not near some screen that you can just project
00:58:15
and broadcast that on I Me Maybe the model if the use case is I'm walking in the park and I need to watch TV at the
00:58:22
same time I don't think that's a real use case I I think you're on this one wrong WR shth because I saw this
00:58:29
revolution in Japan maybe 20 years ago they got obsessed with augmented reality there were a ton of startups right as
00:58:36
they started getting into the mobile phones and the use cases were really very compelling and we're starting to
00:58:41
see them now in education and when you're at dinner with a bunch of friends how often does picking up your phone and
00:58:49
you know looking at a message disturb the flow well people will have glasses on they'll be going for walks they'll be
00:58:54
driving they'll be at a dinner party they'll be with their kids and you'll have something on like Focus mode you
00:58:59
know whatever the equivalent is in apple and a message will come in from your spouse or from your child but you won't
00:59:05
have to take your phone out of your pocket and I think once these things weigh a lot less you're going to have
00:59:10
four different ways to interact with your computer in your pocket your phone your watch your airpods whatever you
00:59:16
have in your ears and the glasses and I bet you glasses are going to take like a
00:59:19
third of the tasks you do I mean what is the point of taking out your phone and watching The Uber come to you but seeing
00:59:25
that little strip that tells you the Uber is 20 minutes away 15 minutes away or what the gate number is I don't have
00:59:31
that anxiety well I don't know if it's anxiety but I just think it's ease of use all those 15 minutes 10 minutes
00:59:37
that's that's the definition I think it adds up I think it taking your phone out
00:59:40
of your pocket 50 times those are all useless notifications the whole thing is to train yourself to realize that it'll
00:59:47
come when it comes okay sack do you have any thoughts on this uh impressive demo
00:59:51
or you know the demo that people who've seen have said is pretty pretty darn compelling I think it it does look
00:59:56
pretty impressive I mean you can wear these meta Orion glasses around you know and look and look like a
01:00:03
human I mean you might look like Eugene Levy but you'll still look like a semi-normal person whereas you can't
01:00:10
wear the Apple Vision Pro I mean you can't wear that around what they don't look good you don't like them Nick can
01:00:16
you please find a picture of Eugene Levy har so I mean it seems like a major advancement certainly compared to apple
01:00:24
Vision Pro I mean you don't hear you don't hear about the Apple Vision Pros anymore at all I mean those things came
01:00:30
and [Laughter] went it's pretty funny it seems to me that who's that meta is executing
01:00:42
extremely well I mean you had the very successful cost cutting which Wall Street
01:00:46
liked Zuck published that letter which I give him credit for regretting the censorship that meta did which was at
01:00:52
the beest of the deep State yeah they made huge advancements in AI I don't think they were initially on The
01:00:59
Cutting Edge of that but they've caught up and now they're leading the open source yeah with with llama 3.2 and now
01:01:06
it seems to me that they're ahead on augmented reality ever since uh Zuck grew out the hair yeah you know don't
01:01:13
ever don't ever cut the hair it's like Samson I mean you've been it's like Samson Bas based Zuck is the best
01:01:20
Zuck I want to be clear I I think these glasses are are going to be successful my only comment is that I think that
01:01:28
when you look back 25 and 30 years from now and say that was the killer AI device I don't think it's going to look
01:01:35
like something we know today that's my only point and maybe it's going to be this thing that Sam Alman and Johnny IV
01:01:42
are baking up that's supposed to be this AI infused iPhone Killer maybe it's that
01:01:48
thing I doubt that will be a pair of glasses or a phone or a pin if you think about like so so take the constraints on
01:01:57
I don't need a keyboard because I'm not going to be typing stuff I don't need a normal browser interface you could see a
01:02:05
device come out that's almost like smaller than the palm of your hand that gives you enough of the visuals and all
01:02:11
it is is a screen with maybe two buttons on the side and it's all audio driven you put a headset in and you're
01:02:17
basically just talking or using gesture or looking at it to kind of describe where you want things to go and it can
01:02:22
create an entirely new Computing interface because AI does all of these things withed text with gesture control
01:02:29
with eye control and with audio control and then it can just give you what you want on a screen and all you're getting
01:02:34
is a simple interface so jamat you may be right it might be a big watch or a handheld thing that's much smaller than
01:02:39
an iPhone and just all it is is a screen with nothing I really resonate when you
01:02:45
talk about voice only because I think it's like it you I think there's like a part of like social
01:02:52
decorum that all of these goggles and glasses violate and I think we're going to have
01:02:58
to decide as a society whether that's going to be okay and then I think like are when you like go trekking in Nepal
01:03:06
are you going to encounter somebody wearing AR glasses I think the odds are pretty low but you do see people today
01:03:12
with a phone so what do they replace it with and I think voice as a modality is is I think it's more incredible that
01:03:20
that could be used by 8 billion people I think social Fabric's more affected by people staring at their phones all the
01:03:25
time you sit on a bus you sit at a restaurant you go to dinner with someone and they're staring at their phone like
01:03:29
you know spes friends we all deal with it where you feel like you're not getting attention from the person that
01:03:35
you're interfacing with in the real world because they're so connected to the phone if we can disconnect the phone
01:03:40
but still get take away this kind of addictive feedback loop system but still give you this Computing ability in a
01:03:46
more ambient way that allows you to remain engaged in the physical world I think everyone feel better hurt your
01:03:51
feeling when he's playing chess and not paying attention yeah I'll be playing chess on my our glasses while pretending
01:03:57
to listen to to you you idiot oh F's he's bu them he got he got version one what one point I want to
01:04:05
just hit on is the reason why these glasses have a chance of working is because of AI I mean Facebook initially
01:04:12
made these that's exactly my point it's exactly my point Facebook or meta made these huge investments before AI was a
01:04:18
thing and in a way I think they've kind of gotten lucky because what AI gives you is uh voice and audio so you can
01:04:26
talk to the glasses or whatever the wearable is it can talk to you perfect natural language and computer vision
01:04:33
allows it to understand the world around you so whatever this device is it can be
01:04:37
a true personal digital assistant in the real world and that's telling you if you
01:04:42
guys play with apple Vision Pro have any of you actually like used it to any extent if you actually used it I used it
01:04:49
for a day or a night when we were playing poker and I've never used it again since right which I get but I do
01:04:56
think that it has these tools in it similar to like the original Macintosh had these incredible Graphics uh editors
01:05:02
like mac paint and all these things that like people didn't like get addicted to
01:05:06
at the time but they became this like tool that completely revolutionized everything in Computing later and fonts
01:05:14
and so on but like this I think has these tools Apple Vision Pro with gesture control and the keyboard and the
01:05:21
eye control those aspects of that device highlight where this could all go which
01:05:26
is this these systems can kind of be driven without keyboards without typing without like you know moving your finger
01:05:33
around without CLI I think that's the I think that's the key observation I really agree with what you just said
01:05:38
it's this it's this idea that you're just you're liberated from the hunting and pecking the controlling it's you
01:05:45
don't need to control the computer anymore the computer now knows what you want and then the computer can just go
01:05:51
and do the work and they can respond so now this is the behavior change that I don't think we're fully giving enough
01:05:57
credit to so today part of what Jason talked about what I called anxiety is because of the information architecture
01:06:04
of these apps that is totally broken and the reason why it's broken is when you tell an AI agent get me the cheapest car
01:06:11
right now to go to XYZ place it will go and look at lft and Uber and whatever it'll provision the car and then it'll
01:06:19
just tell you when it's coming and it will break this cycle that people have of having to check these apps for what
01:06:26
is useless filler information and when you strip a lot of that notification traffic away I think you'll find that
01:06:32
people start looking at each other in the face more often and I think that that's a net positive so will will meta
01:06:39
sell hundreds of millions of these things I suspect probably but all I'm saying is if you look backwards 30 years
01:06:47
from now what is the device that sells in the billions it's probably not a form factor
01:06:52
that we understand today I just want to point out like the the form factor you're seeing now is going to get
01:06:58
greatly reduced these were um some of the early Apple um I don't know if you guys remember these but frog design made
01:07:05
these crazy tablets in the 80s that were the advenal inspiration for the iPad you know 25 years later I
01:07:14
guess exactly uh and so that's the journey we're on here right now this clunky and and these are not functional
01:07:20
protot dude the Apple Newton is like and then it turns out hey you throw away the
01:07:25
sty and you got an iPhone right and everything gets a million x better the other subtle thing that's happening
01:07:31
which I don't think we should sleep on is that the airpods are probably going to become much more socially acceptable
01:07:39
to wear on a 24x7 basis because of this feature that allows it to become a useful hearing aid and I think as it
01:07:46
starts being worn in more and more social environments and as the form factor of that shrinks that's when I
01:07:53
really do think we're going to find some very novel use case which is you know very unobtrusive it kind of
01:08:00
Blends into your own physical makeup as a person without it really sticking out I think that's when
01:08:06
you'll have a really killer feature but I think that the the airpods as hearing aids will also add a lot so meta's doing
01:08:13
a lot Apple's doing a lot but I don't think we've yet seen the super killer Hardware device yet and there was an
01:08:19
interesting Waypoint Microsoft had the first tablets here's the the Microsoft tablet for those of you watching
01:08:26
that came you know I don't know this was the late 90s or early 2000s freedberg if
01:08:30
you remember it these like incredibly oh bulky tablets that Bill Gates was bringing to all the events 99 2000 that
01:08:39
era so you get a lot of false starts they're spending I think close to 20 billion doar a year on this arv or
01:08:45
anyway we're definitely on this path to ambient Computing I don't think I don't think this whole like hey you got to
01:08:49
control a computer thing is anything my kids are going to be doing in 20 years this is uh this is the convergence of
01:08:54
like three or four really interesting technological waves all right just uh dovetailing with tech jobs and the
01:09:00
static team size there is a report of a blue collar Boom the tool belt generation is what gen Z is being
01:09:09
referred to as a report in the Wall Street Journal reports hey tech jobs have dried up we all we're all seeing
01:09:15
that and according to indeed Developer jobs down more than 30% since February of 2020 pre-co of course if you look at
01:09:23
layoffs.fyi you'll see all you know tech jobs that have been eliminated since 2022 over a half
01:09:30
million of them bunch of things at play here and the Wall Street Journal notes that entry level Tech workers are
01:09:37
getting hit the hardest especially all these recent college graduates and if you look at a historical College
01:09:45
enrollment let's pull up that chart Nick you can see here undergraduate graduate
01:09:48
and total with the red line we peaked at 21 million people in either graduate school or under graduate in 2010 and
01:09:57
that's come down to 8.6 million at the same time obviously in the last 12 years you've had uh the population has grown
01:10:03
so this is even you know if it was a percentage basis would be even more dramatic so what's behind this a poll of
01:10:11
a000 teens this summer found that about half believe a high school degree trade program or two-year degree best meets
01:10:18
their career needs and 56% said Real World on the job experience is more valuable than obtaining a college degree
01:10:24
something you've talked about with your own personal experience jamath at waterl
01:10:28
doing apprenticeships essentially your thoughts on generation tool belt such a positive trend I mean there's so many
01:10:37
reasons why this is good I'll I'll just list a handful that come to the top of my mind the first and probably the most
01:10:43
important is that it breaks this strangle hold that the university education system has on America's kids
01:10:54
we have tricked millions and millions of people into getting trillions of dollars in
01:11:02
debt on this idea that you're learning something in University that's somehow going to give you
01:11:09
economic stability and ideally freedom and it has turned out for so many people to not be true it's just so absurd and
01:11:18
unfair that that has happened so if you can go and get a trade degree and live a
01:11:24
econom ially productive life where you can get married and have kids and take care of your family and do all the
01:11:29
things you want to do that's going to put an enormous amount of pressure on higher ed why does it charge so much
01:11:36
what does it give in return that's one thought the second thought which is much more narrow Peter teal has that famous
01:11:42
saying where if you have to put the word science behind it it's not really a thing and what we are going to find out
01:11:50
is that that was true for a whole bunch of things where people went to school like political science
01:11:55
social science yeah social science but I always thought that computer science would be immune but I think he's going
01:12:02
to be right about that too because you can spend two or $300,000 getting in debt to get a computer science degree
01:12:09
but you're probably better off learning JavaScript and learning these tools in some kind of a boot camp for far far
01:12:14
less and graduating in a position to make money right away so those are just two ideas I think that it allows us to
01:12:21
be a better functioning Society so I am really supportive of this trend sax your
01:12:28
thoughts on this generation tool belt we're we're reading about and you know the sort of combination with static team
01:12:36
size that we're seeing in technology companies keeping the number of employees the same or trending down
01:12:42
while they grow 30% year-over-year oh my God I'm like so sick of this this topic of of job loss or job disruption
01:12:50
you I got in so much trouble last week you asked a question about whether the upper middle class is going to suffer
01:12:55
because they're all going to be put out of work by Ai and I just kind of brush it off not because I'm advocating for
01:13:01
that but just because I don't think it's going to happen this whole thing about job loss is so overdone there's going to
01:13:07
be a lot of job disruption but in the case of coders just as an example I think we can say that coders depending
01:13:14
on who you talk to are 10 20 30% more productive as a result of these coding assistant tools but we still need coders
01:13:22
you can't automate 100% of it and the world needs needs so many of them the need for software is unlimited we can't
01:13:29
hire enough of them at Glue by the way shout out if you're looking if here a coder who is afraid of not being able to
01:13:34
get a job apply for one at glue believe me we're hiring I just think that this is so overdone there's going to be a lot
01:13:41
of disruption in the knowledge worker space like we talked about the workflow at call centers and to service factories
01:13:50
there's going to be a lot of change but at the end of the day I think there's going to be plenty of work for humans to
01:13:56
do and some of the work will be more in the blue collar space and I agree with jamath that this is a good thing I think
01:14:02
there's been perhaps an overemphasis on the idea that the only way to get ahead in life is to get uh like a fancy degree
01:14:10
from one of these universities and we've seen that many of the universities they're just not that great they're
01:14:16
overpriced you end up graduating with a mountain of debt and you get a degree that is you know maybe even far worse
01:14:23
than computer science that's just completely worthless so if people learn more vocational skills if they skip
01:14:30
College because they have a proclivity to do something that doesn't need that degree I think that's a good thing and
01:14:35
that's healthy for the economy freedberg is this like uh just the pendulum swung
01:14:38
too much and education got too expensive spending 200k to make $50,000 a year distinctly different than our childhoods
01:14:45
or I'm sorry our adolescence when we were able to go to college for 10K a year 20K a year graduate with you know
01:14:51
some low tens of thousands in debt if you did take debt and then you're your entry level job was 5050 60 70k coming
01:14:57
out of college what are your thoughts here is this a value issue with college well yeah I think the Market's
01:15:02
definitely correcting itself I think for years as chamat said there was kind of this belief that if you went to college
01:15:07
there was regardless of the college there was this outcome where you would make enough money to justify the debt
01:15:15
you're taking on and I think folks have woken up to the fact that that's not reality again
01:15:22
if there was a free market remember most people go to college with student loans
01:15:27
and all student loans are funded by the federal government so the the cost of education has ballooned and the
01:15:34
underwriting criteria necessary for this free market to work has been completely
01:15:39
destroyed because of the federal spending in the student loan program there's no discri discrimination between
01:15:46
one school or another you could go to Trump University or you could go to Harvard it doesn't matter you still get
01:15:52
a student loan even if at the end of the process you don't have a a degree that's
01:15:57
valuable and so I think folks are now waking up to this fact and the market is correcting itself which is good I'll
01:16:03
also say that I think that there's this premium with generally mass production and
01:16:11
industrialization of the human touch and what I mean is if you think about hey you could go to the store and buy a
01:16:20
bunch of cheap food off of the store shelves you could buy a bunch of Hershey's chocolate bars
01:16:25
or you can go to a Swiss choler in downtown San Francisco pay $20 for a box of Handmade Chocolates you'll pay that
01:16:32
premium for that better product same with clothes there's this big Trend in kind of handmade clothes and high-end
01:16:38
luxury goods spoke artisanal Aral handmade and and similarly I think that there's a premium in Human Service in
01:16:50
the partnership with a human it's not just about blue collar jobs it's about having a
01:16:55
talk to you and serve you if you go to a restaurant instead of having a machine spit out the food to you there's an
01:17:02
experience associated with that that you'll pay a premium for there's hundreds and hundreds of micro breweries
01:17:08
in the United States that in aggregate out sell Budweiser and Miller and even Modello today and that's because they're
01:17:14
handcrafted by local people and there's a there's an artisan craftsmanship so while technology and AI are going to
01:17:21
completely reduce the cost of a lot of things and increase the production and productivity of those things one of the
01:17:29
complimentary consequences of that is that there will be an emerging premium for Human Service and I think that there
01:17:35
will be an absolute burgeoning and blossoming in the salaries and the availability and demand for Human
01:17:42
Service in a lot of walks of life certainly there's all the work at home the electricians and the plumbers and so
01:17:48
on but also Fitness classes food personal service around tutoring and learning and developing oneself
01:17:56
there's going to be an incredible blossoming I think in human service jobs and they don't need to have a degree in
01:18:00
poai to be performed I think that there will be a lot of people that would be very happy in that world how do you see
01:18:05
the differentiation the person makes free ber in doing that job versus the agent or the AI or whatever well these
01:18:12
are iners human jobs so if I want to do a fitness class do I want to stare at the tonal or this what I'm this is what
01:18:18
I'm asking you yeah like what I think I I think that there's an aspect of um it look it's like your Laura like you you
01:18:26
talk about the story of Laura piano where is theun coming from how's it made Who's involved in it like yes look God
01:18:36
go don't stop Reber I could give you truffle flavoring out of a can but you you love the white truffles you want to
01:18:42
go to Italy you want the storytelling there's an aspect of it right like yeah and I think that there's an aspect of
01:18:48
humanity that we pay a premium that we do and will look Etsy crushes I don't know how much stuff you guys buy an Etsy
01:18:54
I love buying from Etsy I love finding handmade stuff on Etsy for no you don't do you really yes I do yeah hand crating
01:19:01
I yeah handmade so I think that there's an aspect of this that um that in a lot of walks of life I mean I have so many
01:19:07
jokes right now chewing what I've never used that se but I'm gon to try it now after this have
01:19:14
you guys taken music lessons lately you know I start my kids do piano lessons and so last year I started ducking in to
01:19:19
do a 45-minute piano lesson with the piano teacher there's just like a great aspect to paying for for these services
01:19:25
to getting fascinating bring oh here we go you can play the harmonica really I've just playing some I want to play
01:19:34
some Zack Bryan songs and he's got a couple songs I like with a harmonica in them so I just got harmonica my daughter
01:19:39
and I have been playing harmonica yeah are you teaching yourself let's hear it let's hear it let's hear it I'll play it
01:19:45
next week I'm deep in the laboratory not a bit it could be a bit but could be a I'll write I'll write your song next
01:19:52
week the uh a little shy he's a little shy no no I'll do I'll I'll write a trump song for you I'll do the uh the
01:19:58
the trials and tribulations of Donald Trump and I'll I'll do a little Bob Dylan send up song
01:20:05
for you see that interview with um with Bob Dylan I don't know when it was recently about how andc that clip
01:20:15
Bradley amazing Bradley clip about magic yeah some of those songs I don't know how I wrote them they just came out and
01:20:25
do that anymore he's like no but I did it once no but I did it once and what an incredible that means something yeah
01:20:34
eclipes ground it's really grounding you understand too soon there is no chance of ding yeah that's an incredible
01:20:42
clip guys want to wrap or you want to keep talking about more stuff we we're at 90 minutes let me just say tell you
01:20:47
something I think there's G to be a big war I think by the time the show airs Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going
01:20:52
to get bigger it's going to escalate and by next week we could be in a full-blown multinational war in the
01:21:00
Middle East and if I am you know a betting man I would bet that the odds are you know more than 30 40% that this
01:21:08
happens before the election that this this conflict in the Middle East escalates thank you for bringing this up
01:21:14
I am not asking anybody to go listen to what I my interview with Rogan uh but I will say this part of why I was so
01:21:27
excited to go and talk to him in a long form format was this issue of war is I think the existential crisis of this
01:21:37
election and of this moment and I really do agree with you freeberg there is a non-trivially high probability the
01:21:45
highest it's ever been that we are just bumbling and sleepwalking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from I
01:21:54
really hope you're wrong and here's the here's the situation I really hope you're wrong if Israel incurs further in
01:22:01
into Lebanon going after Hezbollah and Iran ends up getting involved in a more active way does Russia start to provide
01:22:11
supplies to Iran like we are supplying to Ukraine today does this sort of bring everyone to a line just to give you a
01:22:19
sense you know of the scale of what Israel could then respond with Iran has 600 ,000 active udy military another
01:22:26
350,000 in reserve they have dozens of ships they have 19 submarines they have a 600 km range missile system Israel has
01:22:35
90,000 has sorry 170,000 active duty and half a million Reserve Personnel 15 warships five submarines potentially up
01:22:42
to 400 nuclear weapons including a very wide range of tactical sub one kiloton nuclear weapons small small payload you
01:22:51
could see that if Israel starts to feel incurred upon further they could respond
01:22:59
in a more aggressive way with what is you know by far in away you know the the most significantly
01:23:06
stock Arsenal and military force in the Middle East again we've talked about what are these other countries going to
01:23:13
do what is Jordan going to do in this situation how is how the Saud going to respond what is Russia going to do
01:23:20
Russia well the Russia Ukraine thing meanwhile still goes on and we saw in our group chat one of our friends posted
01:23:27
but Russia basically said any more attacks on our land you know we reserve All rights including nuclear response
01:23:34
that is insane well you know so just to give you a sense um how how are we here yeah so the the nuclear bombs that were
01:23:43
set off during World War II I just want to show you how crazy this this is do you see that image on the
01:23:52
left that all all the way over on the left that's a bunker Buster you guys remember those from Afghanistan and and
01:23:58
the Damage that those bunker Buster bombs caused Hiroshima is a 15 kiloton nuclear and you can see the size of it
01:24:06
there on the left that's a zoom in of the image on the right and the image on the right starts to show the biggest
01:24:14
ever tested was Zar bomba by the Soviets this was a 50 Megaton bomb it it caused
01:24:21
shock waves that went around the Earth three times they could be felt as seismic shock waves around the earth
01:24:28
three times from this one detonation today there are a lot of .1 to1 kiloton nuclear bombs that are kind of
01:24:36
considered these tactical nuclear weapons that kind of fall closer to between the bunker Buster and the
01:24:43
Hiroshima and that's really where a lot of folks get concerned that if Israel or
01:24:47
Russia or others get cornered in a way and there's no other tactical response that that is what that get gets pulled
01:24:55
out now if someone detonates A.1 or 1 kiloton nuclear bomb which is going to look like a mega bunker Buster what is
01:25:02
the other side and what's the world going to respond with that's how on the brink we are and there's
01:25:08
12,000 nuclear weapons with an average payload of 100 kilotons around the world the US has a
01:25:15
large stockpile Russia has the largest many of these are hair trigger alert systems China has the third largest and
01:25:22
then Israel and India and and so on it is a very concerning situation because if anyone does get pushed to the brink
01:25:31
that has a nuclear weapon and they pull out a tactical nuke does that mean that game is on and that's why I'm so nervous
01:25:37
about where this all leads to if we can't decelerate it's very scary because you could very quickly see this thing
01:25:42
Accel I am the most objectively scared I've ever been and I think that people grossly
01:25:49
underestimate how quickly this could just spin up out of control and right now not enough of us are spending the time
01:25:57
to really understand why that's possible and then also try to figure out what's the offering and I think it's I think
01:26:04
it's just incredibly important that people take the time to figure out that this is a nonzero probability and this
01:26:11
is probably for many of us the First Time In Our Lifetime where you could really say that well I think freeberg is
01:26:16
right that we're at the beginning stages of I think what will soon be referred to
01:26:20
as the third Lebanon war the first one was in 1982 uh Israel went into Lebanon and
01:26:27
occupied it until 2000 then it went back in 2006 left after about a month and now
01:26:33
we're in the third war it's hard to say exactly how much this will escalate the IDF is exhausted after the war in Gaza
01:26:44
there's significant opposition within Israel and within the Armed Forces to a big ground invasion of Lebanon so far
01:26:53
most of the fighting has has been Israel using its air superiority overwhelming Firepower against Southern Lebanon and I
01:27:02
I I think that if Israel makes a ground Invasion they're giving hisbah the war that hisbah wants I mean hisb would love
01:27:11
for this to turn into a Guerilla war in southern Lebanon so I think there's still some question about whether
01:27:17
Netanyahu will do that or not at the same time it's also possible that his Bella will
01:27:24
attack Northern Israel what nzala has threatened to invade the Galilee in response to what Israel is
01:27:34
doing so there's multiple ways this could escalate and if Hezbollah and Israel are in a fullscale war with
01:27:44
ground forces it could be very easy for Iran to get pulled into it on hisb side and if that happens I think it's just
01:27:51
inevitable that the United States will be pulled into this war so yeah look I think we are drifting and and we have
01:27:58
been drifting into a regional war in the Middle East that you know ideally would
01:28:04
not pull in the US I I think the US should try to avoid being pulled in but I think very likely will be pulled in if
01:28:10
it escalates and then meanwhile in terms of the war in Ukraine I mean I've been warning about this for two and a half
01:28:17
years how dangerous the situation was and that's why we should have availed ourselves of every diplomatic
01:28:23
opportunity to make peace and we now know because there's been such Universal reporting that in Istanbul in the first
01:28:31
month of the Ukraine war there was an opportunity to make a deal with Russia where Ukraine would get all of its
01:28:37
territory back is just that Ukraine would have to agree not to be part of NATO it would have to agree to be
01:28:42
neutral and not part of the western military block that was so threatening to Russia the Biden Administration
01:28:48
refused to make that deal they sent in Boris Johnson to Scuttle it they threw cold water on it they blocked it they
01:28:53
told zinsky will give you all the weapons you need to fight Russia zalinsky believed in that it has not
01:28:59
worked out that way Ukraine is getting destroyed it's very hard to get honest reporting on this from the mainstream
01:29:06
media but the sources I've read suggest that the ukrainians are losing about 30,000 troops per month and that's just
01:29:15
Kia I don't even think that's wounded that on a bad day they're suffering 1,200 casualties it's more than even
01:29:23
during that counter offensive last summer that Ukraine had during that time they were losing about 20,000 troops a
01:29:28
month so the level of Carnage is escalating Russia has has more of everything more weapons more Firepower
01:29:38
air superiority and they are destroying Ukraine and it's very clear I think that
01:29:44
Ukraine within it could be in the next month it could be in the next two months it could be in the next six months I
01:29:48
think they're eventually going to collapse they're getting close to being combat incapable and in a way that poses
01:29:54
the biggest danger because the closer Ukraine gets to collapse the more the West is going to
01:30:00
be tempted to to intervene directly in order to save them and that is what zalinski was here in the US doing over
01:30:07
the past week is arguing for direct involvement by America in the Ukraine war to save him how did he propose this
01:30:15
he said we want to be directly admitted to Nato immediately that was his request
01:30:21
and he called this the the victory plan so in other words his plan for victory is to get America involved in the war
01:30:26
and fighting it for him but that is the only chance Ukraine has and it is possible that the Biden Harris
01:30:33
Administration will agree to do that or at least agree to some significant escalation so far I think Biden to his
01:30:39
credit has resisted another zalinsky demand which is the ability to use America's long-range missiles and
01:30:47
British long- range missiles the storm Shadows against Russian cities that is what zalinski is asking for if zalinsky
01:30:52
wants a major escal of the war because that is the only thing that's going to save him save his side and maybe even
01:30:59
his neck personally and so we're one mistake away from the very dangerous situation that chth and freeberg have
01:31:07
described if a President Biden who is basically scile or a president Harris agree to one of these zalinsky requests
01:31:17
we could very easily find ourselves in a direct war with the Russians the Walts into World War II is what it should be
01:31:25
called and the reason why this could happen is because we don't have a fair media that's fairly reported anything
01:31:30
about this War I mean Trump is on the campaign Trail making I think very valid points about this war that the Ukrainian
01:31:37
cause is doomed and that we should be seeking a peace deal and a settlement before this cons spiral into World War
01:31:44
II that is fundamentally correct but the media portrays that as being pro-russian
01:31:49
and pro Putin and if you say that you want peace you are basically on the take from Putin in Russia that is what the
01:31:54
media has told the American public for 3 years the definition of Liber liberalism
01:31:59
has always been being completely against war of any kind and being completely in
01:32:05
favor of free speech of all kinds that's what being a liberal means we've lost the
01:32:12
script and I think that people need to understand that this is the one issue where if we get it wrong literally
01:32:19
nothing else matters and we are sleepwalking and tiptoeing into a potential massive World War Jeffrey sck
01:32:30
said it perfectly you don't get a second chance in the nuclear age all it takes is one big mistake you do not get a
01:32:36
second chance and for me I have become a single issue voter this is the only issue to me that
01:32:45
matters we can sort everything else out we can figure it all out we can we can find common ground and reason should
01:32:53
taxes go up should taxes go down let's figure it out should regulations go up should regulations go down we can figure
01:33:00
it out but we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts how have we allowed this to happen Russia Iran
01:33:12
China you cannot underestimate that when you add these kinds of risks on top of each other
01:33:20
something can happen here and I don't think people know they're too far away from it they're too many generations
01:33:26
removed from it war is something you heard maybe your grandparents talk about now and you just thought okay
01:33:33
whatever I lived it it's not good jth you're right I mean during the Cuban Missile Crisis all of America was
01:33:40
huddled around their TV sets worried about what would happen there is no similar concern in this day and age
01:33:46
about the escalatory wars that are happening there's a little bit of concern I think about what's happening
01:33:52
in the Middle East there's virtually no concern about what's happening in Ukraine because people think it can't
01:33:57
affect them but it can and one of the reasons it could affect them is because we do not have a fair debate about that
01:34:04
issue in the US media the media has simply caricatured any opposition to the war as being protin so I would say that
01:34:13
when every pundit and every person in a position to do something about it says you have nothing
01:34:24
to worry about you probably have something to worry about and so when everybody is trying to
01:34:31
tell you everybody that this is not a risk it's probably a bigger risk than we think yeah they're protesting too much
01:34:41
how can you say it's not a risk me think thou do protested all right love you boys
01:34:48
[Applause] byebye let your winners ride Man David and instead we open source it to
01:34:59
the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love queen [Music] of Besties are that's my dog taking your
01:35:17
driveways oh man myit will meet me we should all just get a room and just have one big huge or because they're all this
01:35:24
usess it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow we need to get mer
01:35:39
[Music] our going [Music]