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E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more

March 22, 2024 / 01:19:20

This episode covers the recent DOJ lawsuit against Apple, the implications of a settlement in the National Association of Realtors case, and discussions on AI advancements.

The hosts, including David Sachs, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg, discuss the DOJ's Sherman Act lawsuit against Apple, alleging anti-competitive practices across five categories, including super apps and digital wallets. They analyze Apple's market strategies and the potential impact of the lawsuit.

They also explore the recent $418 million settlement involving the National Association of Realtors, which mandates changes in how buyer's agent commissions are handled. The hosts debate the implications for the real estate industry and how it may lead to a more consumer-friendly marketplace.

Additionally, the episode touches on advancements in AI, including a pig kidney transplant and the use of Neuralink technology, highlighting the potential for significant medical breakthroughs.

The hosts conclude by discussing the current state of the stock market and the potential for a speculative bubble, reflecting on the broader implications for the economy.

TL;DR

The episode discusses the DOJ lawsuit against Apple, real estate commission changes, and AI advancements including pig kidney transplants.

Episode

1:19:20

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has anybody else seen duu and IMAX no

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don't say anything oh don't say anything

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about Dune all I want to say about Dune

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no don't say it is fantastic and I want

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to see it again in IMX that's it that's

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all I'm saying is that it's worth seeing

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twice I don't even want to know that you

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think it's good it's overrated it makes

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me oh stop both of you see he didn't see

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it he didn't sax didn't see it no I saw

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Dune Dune two yeah I saw it it's

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overated okay stop stop okay stop

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everybody you both of the not over

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there's like five great scenes sxs the

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scene stop stop you guys are

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so let your winners

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[Music]

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ride and instead we open source it to

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the fans and they've just gone crazy

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with queen

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of all right everybody Welcome to the

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all-in podcast with me again the

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chairman dictator moth poly hoaa David

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saaks the Rainman yeah and sulan of

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science David freeberg it's your boy

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jcal here and we

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have so much to go through the doj

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dropped a Sherman X suit on Apple today

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right as we were about to tape the

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program seems like Thursdays is the big

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news drop day now so this doj suit

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outlines five alleged abuses and they

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claim obviously that those abuses reduce

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competition

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while limiting consumer choice and

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raising the prices that consumers pay

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for their iPhone we talked about this

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actually just a couple of weeks ago when

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we talked about Peak Apple the five

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categories are very quickly super apps

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cloud gaming apps messaging apps

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SmartWatches and digital wallets if you

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don't know about super apps that's the

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one that's maybe you haven't heard of if

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you're listening to this in Asia they

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mention how alipay we chat and PTM are

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super apps what does that mean you get

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like five or six different functions in

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one app social media images purchasing

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getting rides you know all that stuff

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and when you have that you can move from

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one platform to another super

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easily and when it comes to messaging

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apps we've all experienced the green

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bubble friend so the main argument of

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the lawsuit pretty interesting they

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explain and it's a really well-written

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document I read it this morning that

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when Apple faces new competition instead

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of lowering prices for consumers or

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offering a better deal to developers

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they would quote meet competitive

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threats by imposing a series of

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shape-shifting rules and restrictions in

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its App Store guidelines and developer

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agreements I've faced this every time

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I've invested in an app startup they

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complain about the goalpost moving by

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Apple and Apple shares down about 3% on

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the news today I'm sure everybody's got

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some interesting thoughts on it shamat

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you were talking about Peak Apple just

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last week or the week before I think

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what are your thoughts on the lawsuit

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that dropped today to be honest I

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haven't read it and I don't really

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know like the odds of these things just

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because it seems like some of this stuff

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is so clearly

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political and I think that these things

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have seasons to it in the sense that

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there are moments where these things are

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more likely to go in the favor of the

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company and more likely to go in favor

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of the government the one thing I'll say

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is that these guys have been losing

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a fair number of these things so they're

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kind of 5050 in their fight with epic

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they've basically lost against their

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fight with

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Spotify they definitely are in a moment

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where people are looking at the

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profitability of these devices

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as the source of their long-term cash

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flow and I think they realize that

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there's not a lot of growth because they

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haven't entered a bunch of new markets

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so the real question is knowing of that

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did they do something beyond what

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they've already always done to try to

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lock people in and can they prove it I

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think that that's really where the

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government's case will come down to

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because then it's clear that

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Apple probably understood that their

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Market was kind of solidifying and they

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introdu

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these blocks essentially into processes

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that that force people to stay that's

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probably bad news for them but I I don't

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really know because I haven't read the

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lawsuit yeah sax did you get a chance to

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read it or do you have any thought

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generally speaking I haven't read the

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filings but I read some of the press

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coverage about it I would say based on

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the Press coverage that I read that

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there's not really a Smoking Gun here at

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least the Press hasn't reported one and

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what I mean by that is let me give you a

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couple of examples that were in the

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press one is that apparently the filing

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made a point about when Tim Cook was

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confronted some time ago by a user

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saying when I try to send a video by

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text to someone with an Android phone it

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just doesn't work very well it never

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works it was a guy trying to send a

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video to his mom and Tim Cook responded

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well your mom should buy an iPhone it's

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kind of like a throwaway comment by Tim

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Cook probably not a great idea for him

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to say that but that's an example of

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what the lawsuit brings up another

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example is that the Apple watch doesn't

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work with Android

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phones you know it only works with

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iPhones

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obviously again is that really a smoking

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gun issue I don't think so I mean it's

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this is Apple's whole strategy is that

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all of its products work seamlessly

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together and apple Hardware doesn't

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really work with other operating systems

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it never has so at least based on the

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Press coverage I've yet to see a single

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Smoking Gun example coming out of this

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lawsuit now I think what those examples

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highlight is what this lawsuit is really

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about is your view of

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interoperability what the government is

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saying is that Apple needs to make its

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apps and its devices more

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interoperable with other ecosystems so

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the watch needs to be interoperable with

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Android Apple messaging needs to be

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interoperable with Android messaging and

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so on what the government is saying is

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that apple is refusing to play ball with

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other applications other operating

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systems and that creates a monopolistic

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Network effect what I think Apple would

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say is no the fact is that Apple from

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the outset has always tried to do

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everything super nuts we've always done

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the hardware and the software together

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and that's what creates the magical

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experience and so Apple's entire product

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strategy is based on creating a

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vertically integrated stack that goes

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from Hardware to operating system to key

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applications and I think apple has a

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point saying if you try to make us

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unwind all of that the product is not

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going to work as well it's not going to

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be the same product experience that

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everyone's used to so again I think that

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how you view interoperability at the

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core of this lawsuit I think that both

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the government and apple make good

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points about that and I'm a little bit

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skeptical right now that the government

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has a Smoking Gun at least one hasn't

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been reported in the press and so I'm a

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little bit doubtful right now that the

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government's gonna be able to win this

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case freeberg any thoughts yeah I mean I

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think it's a function of consumer choice

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if consumers want to have this closed

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system where they can iMessage with

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other iMessage app app holders and not

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be able to have a seamless integrated

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messaging experience with Android users

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they'll be happy if they're annoyed

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they'll switch over to an Android so you

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know this has always been

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Apple's orientation I I think I

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mentioned this to you guys I've been on

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a Mac since 1984 when the Mac original

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came out I still have my first Mac

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original by the way I keep it in my

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office on my

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shelf and Apple's you know always had

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like a really hard focus on the software

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that they make available to their users

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to create an incredible product

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experience so I don't know if this is

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necessarily about Market abuse as much

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as it is a consumer choice if the

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consumers didn't like the product they

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didn't like the fact that things were

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not available that things were very

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expensive they would go elsewhere and

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you do see that in segments of the

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market and as we talked about a few

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weeks ago you do see that xus most of

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the smartphone market is actually

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Android driven yeah so this is a premium

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product that people are willing to pay a

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premium price for even if that means

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limited access I think developers are

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frustrated that they can't access this

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premium Market but I'm not sure that

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Apple necessarily should be

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coerced to service developers when at

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the end of the day the consumers are

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paying for the product and to your point

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like is it is it really the case that a

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green bubble versus a blue bubble is

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really that limiting you know it's not

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the world an it's annoying but the world

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yeah I would say apple has completely

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abused their power every chance they get

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in order to capture this 30% from the

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app store they blocked the ability for

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you to use Audible or you know other

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marketplaces to buy books and media they

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blocked the ability to use other media

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players like VLC they blocked the

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ability to use browsers and if you leave

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Apple unchecked they just keep abusing

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it and so I think this is kind of one of

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those lawsuits that's like if we don't

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stop them they'll just keep making it

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worse and when people file complaints

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then Apple will back down which they did

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on media players and and they'll stand

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down if you think about this from the PC

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era to now then you can see how pricious

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their behavior is when you buy a laptop

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the idea that you would have to go

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through an app store and pay a $30 tax

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to put a piece of software on your

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computer would seem insane 30% 30 yeah

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30% tax on your which would seem insane

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like if you buy a laptop you should be

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able to put whatever software you want

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on it but they did this magic trick

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where they said no if you want to put

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software on your phone it has to go

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through the App Store it has to be 30%

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and that's really the anti-competitive

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thing here I think this will be settled

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and if you look at the different issues

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here I think this is going to be

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actually a huge win for Apple because if

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iMessage were to exist on Android they

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would get all of those users to download

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iMessage and they would have all those

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users if they made the watch compatible

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they would open up many more people to

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buy the watch and you would get more

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watches I think that Apple's thinking

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way too short term about the the lock in

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here and they should you know allow more

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of these apps allow more watches and

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they should allow the gaming thing I

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think that they're being petty I don't

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think anything's going to happen here

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because it's taken them five years to

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file there's a at least a 50% chance

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that the administration is going to turn

00:10:47

over which means that this lawsuit

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changes or goes away entirely and then

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even if it does kind of proceed it's

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going to take 10 years of very detailed

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Arguments for something to happen and

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frankly probably in 10 years from now

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we've already moved to a different

00:11:01

compute platform and this is not going

00:11:02

to matter I mean there there is the coin

00:11:05

toss of what the Trump Administration

00:11:06

would do here for sure that's valid but

00:11:09

I think these things will get settled I

00:11:11

think the settlement will be iMessage

00:11:12

releases they allow the see the thing

00:11:15

about the Apple watch it's not just

00:11:16

sacks that they're allowing it on

00:11:18

Android it's would you allow Android

00:11:20

watches to connect with the SDK directly

00:11:23

into the IOS operating system which they

00:11:26

block you from doing I think they should

00:11:28

just have a little switch in your

00:11:30

freedberg settings that allows you to

00:11:32

flip it and say I take responsibility

00:11:36

for allowing third party stores and I

00:11:38

want to be able to load any software

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it's your computer I don't think the

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government should should regulate I

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don't think the government should be

00:11:44

able to mandate I think they yeah I mean

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I I like the fact everyone keep looking

00:11:49

to the government to do things that they

00:11:51

want as a consumer make your choice with

00:11:53

your dollars make your vote with the

00:11:55

product and service you want to buy

00:11:56

instead of running to the government and

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asking the government to come and do

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stuff you feel that way about price

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fixing what do you mean price fixing in

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what context if like a group of people

00:12:05

price fix the cost of a phone or like

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let's say the 30% from the app store

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which just happens to be the same

00:12:10

between two app

00:12:11

stores do you think price fixing is

00:12:13

something valid for the government to

00:12:15

think it's not the same do you think

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price fixing is something the government

00:12:18

should come in on it's the question if

00:12:20

there's limited access to products in a

00:12:22

market and all the participants get

00:12:24

together to set the price in the market

00:12:27

I do think that's anti-competitive and

00:12:28

that's there a good role for the

00:12:29

government to play there but Google and

00:12:31

apple don't price fix because Android is

00:12:35

an Open Access system you can put any

00:12:36

application you want any way you want

00:12:39

there are several app stores to put

00:12:41

Android apps on your Android device

00:12:44

Google operates an app store called

00:12:45

Google play but there are other app

00:12:47

stores you can go to as well and they

00:12:49

all have different prices and Google's

00:12:50

App Store costs by the way are not apple

00:12:53

and they're not 30% and we talked about

00:12:55

this last time I'll pull it up for you

00:12:56

again it's like 15 to 12 going down it's

00:12:58

a sliding scale so there is competition

00:13:00

in that market generally I think the

00:13:02

point about if there's limited access to

00:13:05

a market for product for consumers and

00:13:07

everyone in that market gets together

00:13:08

and sets a price that is

00:13:10

anti-competitive and there's a good role

00:13:11

for government to play there but I don't

00:13:13

think that having the government come in

00:13:14

and say I want this feature to have this

00:13:16

button and this flip in my app is is

00:13:19

what I want my government doing I want

00:13:20

my government protecting me from

00:13:23

crime and you know defending the country

00:13:25

and I don't want all the other stuff

00:13:27

that the government does to drive costs

00:13:28

up which is generally what the

00:13:30

government does so what do you think the

00:13:31

role of the government is here in terms

00:13:33

of anti-competitive especially in the

00:13:36

case I'm curious your thoughts on a

00:13:37

duopoly like if you look at Google

00:13:39

search Monopoly pretty easy to

00:13:41

understand like hey they've got 90% but

00:13:43

here you got two players who have you

00:13:45

know roughly 50% of the market each or

00:13:46

60 40 depending on where you are so what

00:13:49

what is the the the proper role of

00:13:51

government here and is this an

00:13:54

overreach no I mean I actually think

00:13:56

just to give the government lawsuit some

00:13:58

credit I actually think it's good to

00:14:00

hold Apple's feet to the fire and make

00:14:02

sure they're not engaging in

00:14:03

anti-competitive tactics one of the

00:14:05

things I've said previously on the show

00:14:08

is that I think the government's been

00:14:09

making the mistake of going after

00:14:11

bigness for its own sake and I don't

00:14:13

think that bigness in and of itself is

00:14:16

bad it might be a reflection that the

00:14:17

company's done an incredibly good job

00:14:19

and that's why it has a lot of customers

00:14:21

and a lot of market share what I've said

00:14:23

is I think the government should prevent

00:14:25

anti-competitive tactics so I think that

00:14:27

this lawsuit is good in the sense that

00:14:29

it's targeted at the right types of

00:14:32

things it's not just going after Apple

00:14:33

because it's market cap is so big it's

00:14:35

going after specific things that it's

00:14:37

doing to kind of lock in its Network

00:14:40

effect now the problem that I see is

00:14:42

just that the examples that we've been

00:14:44

given so far from the lawsuit just don't

00:14:45

seem that compelling again I'm kind of

00:14:49

waiting to find out where's the Smoking

00:14:50

Gun here but to freeberg point I mean

00:14:53

look I don't think you can just say that

00:14:56

if you don't like what Apple's doing go

00:14:57

to a different platform because because

00:14:59

the point is that there's only two

00:15:01

choices and they can both engage in

00:15:05

anti-competitive tactics and they can

00:15:06

both create lock in but sax there are

00:15:09

not just two choices Android is an open

00:15:11

operating system Google has a fork of

00:15:13

Android that they put on certain

00:15:15

smartphones there are other smartphone

00:15:17

makers that use other Forks of Android

00:15:19

so Android has enabled and the reason

00:15:22

Google bought Android was to provide a

00:15:24

counterbalance to exactly the dynamic of

00:15:27

one handset manufacturer having an

00:15:30

operating system that could control

00:15:32

access to the internet and to apps and

00:15:33

so Google open sourced Android many

00:15:36

handset manufacturers use their own

00:15:38

versions of Android to put their own

00:15:40

experience on the phone and then Android

00:15:42

users can put apps from anywhere they

00:15:44

want and other companies offer app

00:15:46

stores so there are many app stores to

00:15:48

go to and there are many different

00:15:49

handset manufacturers and a lot of

00:15:51

people I think in correctly look at the

00:15:54

operating system landscape in Mobile and

00:15:56

say oh there's Android and there's iOS

00:15:58

but Android is an open platform and

00:16:00

there are many different Forks of it run

00:16:02

by many different companies so I think

00:16:04

that it is actually a very competitive

00:16:05

market like we talked about last week I

00:16:07

think close to 80% of global handsets

00:16:09

are run on Android Forks so you know

00:16:12

it's not necessarily the case that there

00:16:14

are only two choices and Google does not

00:16:16

control Android there are many

00:16:18

developers that contribute to open

00:16:19

source there Google has their own Fork

00:16:21

that they do a lot of work on but anyone

00:16:23

can take their own fork and do I mean

00:16:24

you guys can you know when you when you

00:16:26

um when you boot up a Samsung or Sony TV

00:16:29

that's running Android and that's

00:16:30

running their own version of Android are

00:16:32

you arguing that Apple doesn't have

00:16:33

Market power in the US they do xus

00:16:36

they're you know yeah I mean I think

00:16:38

sure we're talking about the US market I

00:16:40

mean I think the US market they're about

00:16:42

are they about 5050 we pulled this chart

00:16:43

up last week but I more in the US now it

00:16:45

might be 55 45 right now yeah something

00:16:48

like that the issue is the cat and mouse

00:16:50

that apple is really good at playing

00:16:52

they will push their advantage and so we

00:16:54

see the five things that the justice

00:16:55

department wants to go after here but

00:16:57

the App Store is obviously one of them

00:16:59

and before that I mentioned some of the

00:17:01

other categories where they do this

00:17:02

abusive power they basically keep it up

00:17:04

as much as they can until they get

00:17:06

checked and I I think interoperability

00:17:09

is actually in the long term going to be

00:17:10

in their best interest they use

00:17:12

interoperability when they need it so

00:17:14

Apple music and iTunes they allow you to

00:17:16

use Windows and Android it's only when

00:17:19

they see an advantage and that's really

00:17:20

the hypocrisy of apple and I think it's

00:17:23

really important that the industry stand

00:17:26

for more interoperability and the

00:17:28

ability for to load any software that

00:17:30

you want on your device this is a

00:17:31

compute platform the ability for them to

00:17:34

block you from installing your own apps

00:17:35

on it I think it's a really terrible by

00:17:38

the way Jason what you're saying is a

00:17:39

very fair statement from a consumer

00:17:41

point of view and from an industry point

00:17:43

of view and that's where that voice

00:17:44

should come from to force in the

00:17:46

marketplace changes from Apple but

00:17:49

having the government do this and having

00:17:51

the government involved I think that'ss

00:17:52

all these bad they're representing the

00:17:54

people somebody did it they asked Tim

00:17:55

Cook to do it and Tim Cook said pound

00:17:56

salt buy a phone for your mom no but

00:17:58

aren aren't they representing the people

00:18:00

like how do you expect the people to

00:18:01

organize like file a class action no I

00:18:04

think if enough companies boycott the

00:18:06

Apple platform and tell consumers to

00:18:07

boycott they'll I mean consumers can

00:18:09

make decisions developers can make

00:18:11

decisions whether or not they want to

00:18:12

develop for Apple no that's not

00:18:14

realistic you know that not real that's

00:18:16

naive come on I don't think I want the

00:18:17

government stepping in to tell private

00:18:19

companies what to do because customers

00:18:21

don't like what they're doing wait wait

00:18:23

do you think that the government should

00:18:24

stepped in to prevent Microsoft from

00:18:26

taking over the browser the whole

00:18:27

Netscape case

00:18:30

bundling I don't know the case well

00:18:32

enough I mean I remember it but I don't

00:18:34

want to speak I don't want to speak

00:18:36

definitively there was a substantial

00:18:38

chance that if the government didn't

00:18:39

step in then Microsoft would have

00:18:41

extended their Windows operating system

00:18:43

Monopoly they did have an AB to the

00:18:44

Monopoly they did have a monopoly on

00:18:47

personal compute OS at the time well it

00:18:48

wasn't an absolute Monopoly I

00:18:51

mean you were using Macintosh at the

00:18:53

time that's what I'm saying at the time

00:18:55

Macintosh was like 5% of the market it

00:18:57

was under 10% at the time yeah it was

00:18:58

about four or five% at that time

00:19:01

Microsoft was

00:19:02

95% of the personal Computing market so

00:19:04

they did have an absolute Monopoly on

00:19:06

that market you had a consumer Choice it

00:19:07

wasn't a very good consumer choice but

00:19:09

you still a consumer choice you could go

00:19:11

use MacIntosh and you did you were using

00:19:14

lot of people could afford it yeah okay

00:19:16

but the point is that Microsoft had

00:19:18

substantial Market power and what they

00:19:20

were in the process of doing was the

00:19:22

smart thing from a business standpoint

00:19:24

which is you take your operating system

00:19:26

Monopoly you use that to extend into the

00:19:28

browser you kill Netscape you take over

00:19:30

with Explorer you bake Explorer into

00:19:33

your Windows operating system so the two

00:19:35

things are basically the same then from

00:19:37

there hold on from there you leverage

00:19:39

your control of the of the browser in

00:19:41

the home screen to control search okay

00:19:44

and so you think about like all the

00:19:45

dominoes that would have fallen if

00:19:47

Microsoft had continued maybe if like

00:19:49

Bill Gates had continued being CEO and

00:19:52

there would have been no Google there

00:19:53

would have been no Yahoo they would have

00:19:54

controlled the internet they would have

00:19:56

controlled the internet and they were

00:19:57

actively you left out a big piece of

00:19:59

sax which you'll remember the second I

00:20:00

say it they were trying to break HTML in

00:20:03

Open Standards by creating ActiveX and

00:20:06

using all funky Cod right and so you

00:20:09

have to understand these companies will

00:20:11

if you give them an inch they'll take

00:20:12

the mile and that's exactly what Apple

00:20:15

does consistently they consistently try

00:20:18

to squeeze I think it's great saaks is

00:20:20

Right tactics is the way to go after

00:20:22

this companies these are five recent

00:20:24

tactics I think the the government's

00:20:26

going to win changing three of these and

00:20:28

that's win that's a win for me yeah the

00:20:30

mobile operators tried to do the same at

00:20:31

that same time if you guys remember

00:20:33

Verizon yes singular they they you could

00:20:37

only put their apps if you bought it

00:20:39

through their store yeah on their

00:20:41

operating system on the mobile phones

00:20:42

that they contracted to have made so

00:20:45

they all had their own custom version of

00:20:47

the handset manufacturers OS which all

00:20:50

and then they did rev share back with

00:20:51

the manufacturers and that's why Android

00:20:53

was acquired it wasn't actually at the

00:20:55

time to compete with Apple Android was

00:20:58

required to compete with all the mobile

00:20:59

phone companies that were trying to

00:21:01

block access to the internet and apps

00:21:03

well Google wanted to maintain its

00:21:04

search Monopoly let's be honest they

00:21:06

that's why they bought it they knew

00:21:08

users would be there and they wanted to

00:21:09

have the default they want to have the

00:21:11

access to the internet block Yeah by

00:21:13

this by the handset manuf they want it

00:21:15

to be the default search browser in the

00:21:16

app which is what you have to agree to

00:21:18

by the way so if you want to talk about

00:21:19

perniciousness and heavy-handedness if

00:21:21

you have an Android you and you want to

00:21:23

use the Android updates from Google

00:21:25

corre you have to give the bundle of

00:21:27

apps if you want the and support from

00:21:29

Google you can for it but then you don't

00:21:31

get their support which then breaks your

00:21:33

phone if you want their version that's

00:21:35

right yes yeah so you know there's a

00:21:37

little cleverness here I think so you

00:21:39

have two basic ecosystems in Mobile it

00:21:41

is a duopoly and both them Advantage

00:21:43

themselves in ways that grow over time

00:21:48

and I think that if Apple were

00:21:51

completely left unchecked it would

00:21:53

figure out ways to boil the Frog and

00:21:55

keep extracting more and more value out

00:21:56

of Downstream applications tot they boil

00:21:59

we paying 1,600 or phone now how are we

00:22:01

paying 1600 or phone so look I think

00:22:03

it's I think it's good for the

00:22:04

government to hold their feet to the

00:22:05

fire but here here's the thing that the

00:22:07

government's lacking is again that

00:22:10

example they can point to that's really

00:22:11

compelling I mean with the Microsoft

00:22:13

Netscape thing it was really obvious

00:22:15

what they were doing right the browser

00:22:17

was the gateway to the whole new

00:22:18

platform which was the internet and if

00:22:20

Microsoft could make that a feature of

00:22:24

the operating system their dominance

00:22:25

would extend into the new Computing

00:22:26

platform but you remember how they did

00:22:28

it Apple watch is just not the same

00:22:30

thing the Apple watch is kind of a an

00:22:32

appendage of your phone that most people

00:22:34

don't even want so it's hard to point to

00:22:37

something do you remember saxs how they

00:22:39

were getting the browser built in they

00:22:42

were going to the oems the Dells of the

00:22:44

world the HPS and saying if you want

00:22:46

this price for Windows you have to

00:22:49

include the browser on the desktop it

00:22:50

has to load it has to ask for your

00:22:52

credentials all this stuff or you can

00:22:54

pay $150 for Windows um if you want it

00:22:58

with without the browser bundled so they

00:23:00

use this pricing to get the oems to to

00:23:03

bundle it and that that was where well

00:23:05

isn't that what Google's doing with

00:23:06

Android effectively exactly is like it's

00:23:09

exactly right you can have your own

00:23:11

version without Google search if you're

00:23:14

willing to put up with all these

00:23:15

headaches and maintain an operating

00:23:18

system update the operating system yeah

00:23:20

it's exactly what they're doing so

00:23:21

anyway I think three out of five of

00:23:23

these get settled and it'll be good for

00:23:24

consumers ultimately I I I would not

00:23:27

Financial advice but I think that

00:23:29

Apple's going to be able to manage this

00:23:30

I'd buy the stock I may buy more of the

00:23:32

stock I think that this will be good for

00:23:34

them long term all right listen going

00:23:37

even deeper into apple and this Google

00:23:40

relationship big questions emerged this

00:23:42

week as Bloomberg reported that Apple

00:23:44

was speaking to both Google and open AI

00:23:47

about powering certain AI features on

00:23:50

iOS specifically according to the

00:23:52

article this deal between Apple and

00:23:54

Google seems much more likely than the

00:23:56

open a one and could happen this year as

00:23:58

you know we've talked about it on this

00:23:59

show before Google has been the default

00:24:01

search engine on iPhone for I think over

00:24:04

a decade now and uh Google pays Apple 20

00:24:07

billion a year that's pure profit for

00:24:09

Apple U it's unclear what features they

00:24:11

would power with Google Gemini maybe

00:24:15

it's like the search deal and Google

00:24:16

Gemini's on there maybe it's built in

00:24:19

and Apple has been building its own llm

00:24:22

it's called Ajax they've been doing some

00:24:23

other open source stuff called Maggie

00:24:26

what do you think chath you were talking

00:24:27

about this on Twitter you think you had

00:24:29

a pretty good tweet and a pretty strong

00:24:31

position if apple is going to use Gemini

00:24:35

what does that say to you about Apple

00:24:38

and their view of the future I think

00:24:39

it's them giving up this is the most

00:24:42

consequential new development in

00:24:44

technology and compute in probably 20

00:24:47

years 30 years and so to be spending

00:24:51

tens of billions of dollars of R&D and

00:24:54

to not have enough allocated to this so

00:24:57

that you have a legitimate path forward

00:24:58

to do it yourself I think is a little

00:25:00

inexcusable

00:25:01

[Music]

00:25:03

actually it's akin to IBM in the 70s

00:25:06

going to Microsoft and and basically

00:25:09

asking them to build the operating

00:25:11

system for them when you're such a

00:25:13

dominant company in such a dominant

00:25:15

position but you abdicate your

00:25:18

responsibility to innovate I think that

00:25:20

that's a really bad situation for a

00:25:24

company to be in was like Yahoo adding

00:25:26

Google Search right and then by the way

00:25:28

on the heals of like turning off cars

00:25:30

and and losing these antitrust issues in

00:25:35

Europe and then being sued by the doj

00:25:38

here to then be in a licensing

00:25:40

discussion with a third party for such a

00:25:42

critical technology I think is just says

00:25:46

not very good things about the state of

00:25:47

the company freeberg your thoughts on

00:25:50

this potential deal we don't know what

00:25:52

features this would power I don't know

00:25:54

if it's Siri or it's just image editing

00:25:57

or search an extension of search maybe

00:25:59

giving an answer I have no idea it seems

00:26:01

to me like there's if if Apple's doing

00:26:04

the right thing which I'm sure they are

00:26:05

they're probably building their own

00:26:07

alternative platform here they realize

00:26:10

it's going to take them some time in the

00:26:11

interim they want to have a stop Gap and

00:26:13

my guess is by going to Google they're

00:26:15

probably going to get paid instead of

00:26:17

having to pay someone else for the

00:26:19

technology because Google will realize

00:26:22

some benefit from getting users over to

00:26:25

search results and seeing ads so Google

00:26:27

will probably benefit and pay them

00:26:29

instead

00:26:30

of them having to go pay someone for

00:26:33

access to some technology that consumers

00:26:35

might want access to sax any thoughts

00:26:37

here I'm sure apple is goingon to make

00:26:38

an investment in building their own

00:26:39

models here yeah I mean who would look

00:26:42

at the launch of Google Gemini and say I

00:26:46

want that that launch was at total

00:26:49

Fiasco another world company I think it

00:26:52

fit the Apple philosophy pretty good I

00:26:54

how woke would Tim Cook have to be to

00:26:56

look at the launch of Gemini and say oh

00:26:58

yeah I don't see anything wrong there

00:26:59

you got that exactly right

00:27:01

absolutely I want that yeah Siri show me

00:27:04

the president of the United States I

00:27:06

mean apparently Tim Cook is the only

00:27:08

person on Earth who is impressed with

00:27:09

the launch of Google Gemini I mean I

00:27:11

can't believe the story is true it's

00:27:13

just it can't be true I'm so excited

00:27:15

today to launch Gemini on stage here iOS

00:27:20

27 Oh my God can you imagine him on

00:27:23

stage doing searches live the story

00:27:25

can't be true because it' be so

00:27:27

strategically dumb like said even if

00:27:29

Google Gemini were great you'd still

00:27:31

want to invest in having your own thing

00:27:34

because it's such a strategic technology

00:27:36

why would you ever Outsource it to your

00:27:38

main competitor but in this case you

00:27:40

know that Gemini was terrible it was a

00:27:42

fiasco and so the story makes no sense I

00:27:45

just can't believe it's true it's

00:27:47

probably people knocking on each other's

00:27:48

doors they spent $30 billion last year

00:27:51

on R&D 30

00:27:53

billion Apple to be clear they spent $30

00:27:57

billion on R&D what did they spend it on

00:28:01

catering I mean you got to think Apple

00:28:03

vision is a big piece of that right

00:28:06

chips I guarantee you like half of that

00:28:09

is like the M3 M4 30 billion like not a

00:28:12

couple crumbs fall out of somebody's

00:28:14

pocket and so there's 50 million

00:28:15

allocated to just like you know mucking

00:28:18

around with llama or mucking around with

00:28:20

mistol what if they took project Titan

00:28:23

the car car deal that was 10 billion

00:28:26

supposedly they had spent on that and if

00:28:28

they put that towards

00:28:29

AI Microsoft again again it goes back to

00:28:32

the to the people I don't think I don't

00:28:33

think the the person in charge of the

00:28:35

windshield wipers for project Titan is

00:28:37

going to be the person that figures out

00:28:38

how to land a really killer llm yeah

00:28:41

that's a different skill set but it's

00:28:43

not even that expensive I mean's a

00:28:45

mechanical engineer and one's a computer

00:28:46

scientist so these are not the same

00:28:48

people they're not fungible that way I

00:28:50

mean I guess the question here is Apple

00:28:52

capable of building on a culture basis

00:28:54

freedberg this type of software they're

00:28:57

a hardware company it's not you're

00:28:59

standing on the shoulders of the whole

00:29:00

open source movement all you have to do

00:29:02

like jam said all you got to do is take

00:29:03

the latest mistal model or jump on

00:29:06

hugging face and start working I mean

00:29:09

you're not starting from zero because of

00:29:10

Open Source not not only you're not

00:29:13

starting from zero not only do you have

00:29:14

the foundational models that are

00:29:15

excellent and available in open source

00:29:17

you have probably the most prolific set

00:29:19

of training data that has ever been ex

00:29:21

created in the entire world to make

00:29:22

these models kickass yeah you have all

00:29:25

the Apple photos archive I wonder if in

00:29:27

their ch see that's the thing is their

00:29:28

terms of service is so privacy based I

00:29:30

wonder if they could even use that

00:29:32

information and I just think look at the

00:29:34

end of the day the Apple brand is still

00:29:36

exceptional and so if you're given a $10

00:29:38

million a year job at Google versus a

00:29:41

$10 million a year job at meta versus a

00:29:44

10 million $10 million a year job at

00:29:47

Apple if you're like one of these killer

00:29:49

AI people that get these kinds of offers

00:29:51

I got to presume that Apple gets their

00:29:53

fair share of these people yeah you

00:29:55

would think and even in the worst case

00:29:58

you see Microsoft doing like pretty

00:30:00

heavy handed deals with companies like

00:30:03

open Ai and just this week with

00:30:05

inflection so it's not as as as if these

00:30:07

deals can't be done right and so it just

00:30:11

kind of like leaves I don't know it's

00:30:13

just it's quizzical to spend that much

00:30:15

money to not necessarily be willing to

00:30:18

compete on the human capital to not

00:30:20

necessarily be in the market acquiring

00:30:23

these

00:30:24

businesses I don't know it's just it's

00:30:26

just a question mark like what's going

00:30:27

on over there Jam ask what's going on

00:30:28

over there we have some inside footage

00:30:30

Nick you want to play

00:30:36

tape what's going on

00:30:41

here what are we

00:30:49

watching I hope we didn't keep you

00:30:53

waiting mother nature mother nature well

00:30:57

welcome to Apple how how was the weather

00:31:00

getting

00:31:05

in oh she's controlling the weather was

00:31:07

however I wanted it to be yeah they did

00:31:09

this couple of but but this reflects

00:31:11

their self-image I mean they released

00:31:13

this they care about the plan no it's it

00:31:16

reflects that they think somehow this is

00:31:18

an accurate reflection of the way they

00:31:19

do

00:31:20

meetings no I think it was the um point

00:31:23

they were making is they were trying to

00:31:24

do a skit about like how they're doing

00:31:26

less packaging and including that that

00:31:29

skit was to tell you that you're not

00:31:30

getting a charger in your next iPhone

00:31:32

because they they don't they want to say

00:31:33

didn't it was

00:31:34

cringe I thought the intent was maybe

00:31:37

it's a little cringe but yeah I it a

00:31:39

little cring but I do appreciate that

00:31:41

they are doing sustainable products and

00:31:44

not putting as much stuff in landfills

00:31:46

so I think they should get a lot of

00:31:47

credit for that what I do think about

00:31:48

this deal that's really interesting is

00:31:50

it's sort of cementing the Google and

00:31:52

the

00:31:53

Apple alliance against Microsoft and

00:31:56

Microsoft has big you know AI ambition

00:31:59

so this is kind of interesting if you

00:32:01

lock in the duopoly of Google and apple

00:32:04

and then you lock in Google search

00:32:06

Monopoly and you start fighting

00:32:08

Microsoft I think that's what we're I

00:32:10

think that's what's probably going on

00:32:11

here is they're trying to figure out how

00:32:13

do we keep Microsoft away from running

00:32:16

away with this all right we covered that

00:32:18

huge Nar lawsuit back in December and

00:32:20

there has been a settlement big news for

00:32:23

the National Association of Realtors

00:32:25

they've agreed to pay $418 million

00:32:28

settlement last week and federal jury

00:32:30

found that the n and several large real

00:32:33

estate brokerages conspired to

00:32:35

artificially inflate agent commissions

00:32:38

the settlement is pretty pretty big deal

00:32:40

people are freaking out about it as you

00:32:43

know the seller of a home pays the

00:32:46

buyer's agents commission so you have a

00:32:48

buyer and a seller 6% fee typically

00:32:52

sometimes it's five but they split that

00:32:53

3% to the buyer and the seller but the

00:32:56

seller is paying that 3% to the buyer

00:32:59

now that can't be listed in the MLS

00:33:01

anymore and that deal cannot be done

00:33:03

ahead of time

00:33:05

buyers are responsible for paying their

00:33:07

agents commissions going forward so if

00:33:09

you bought a million dollar house and

00:33:10

you were the buyer you would pay 30,000

00:33:12

to your buyer's agent or you would

00:33:15

choose to not have an agent or you would

00:33:18

choose to negotiate it and you have to

00:33:20

have a signed contract this is a crazy

00:33:24

just shocking shock to the system

00:33:26

according to most people who are in it

00:33:28

I've seen a lot of real estate folks who

00:33:30

are saying this is going to be healthy

00:33:32

because you have this you have to have

00:33:33

this conversation between the buyers

00:33:35

agent and the

00:33:36

buyer but Commissions in the United

00:33:39

States are hundred billion doll a year

00:33:42

and one analyst projected the lawsuit

00:33:44

could lead to a 30% reduction in

00:33:46

commission payments and that would

00:33:49

eliminate about half of the 1.6 million

00:33:51

active NRA members from the industry you

00:33:53

had a lot of feelings on this fredberg

00:33:55

when we talked about it a couple of

00:33:56

months ago what are your thoughts on

00:33:58

this settlement is anything going to

00:33:59

change is this as groundbreaking and

00:34:02

shocking as people seem to think it is

00:34:05

well I would take this

00:34:08

settlement along with a lot of the

00:34:11

developments and advances in

00:34:15

AI as being the moment of catalyzing

00:34:18

real change in the residential real

00:34:20

estate agency

00:34:21

industry it's an industry that's been

00:34:24

known to have fixed

00:34:26

pricing and be very expensive to

00:34:29

Consumers a real tax on the system and

00:34:32

it's largely been wrapped around this

00:34:35

idea of mitigating your liability

00:34:38

reducing risk servicing the customer

00:34:41

many of those aspects over the last

00:34:44

couple of years have been largely

00:34:46

standardized through forms digitized

00:34:48

because so much of this information is

00:34:50

no longer going to get paperwork from

00:34:51

the courthouse but a lot of the

00:34:53

information sits digitally and can be

00:34:54

accessed in a democratized way and the

00:34:57

fact that so much of the service and

00:34:59

Discovery reading through documents

00:35:01

understanding what they mean and what

00:35:02

they say can be automated through Ai and

00:35:04

llms much of this is kind of coalescing

00:35:07

around what I hope and expect will be a

00:35:09

more seamless automated direct

00:35:12

Marketplace for consumers the challenge

00:35:15

is that most consumers put most of their

00:35:18

personal net worth into their home and

00:35:21

so it is where most people's net worth

00:35:23

is tied up and so because it is such a

00:35:25

sensitive investment and it is their

00:35:26

entire

00:35:28

savings they want to have a trusted

00:35:30

advisor by them so it's going to take

00:35:32

some time before that trusted advisor

00:35:34

becomes some piece of software but I do

00:35:37

think that software is going to play

00:35:38

more and more of a role in providing

00:35:41

advisory tools and services to consumers

00:35:43

in this transaction Marketplace and

00:35:45

that's only going to catalyze

00:35:47

and accelerate the fee reduction I do

00:35:50

project and I do expect that much of

00:35:52

what is charged on a commission basis on

00:35:54

a percent of home value today will

00:35:56

change to being a fixed Fe andk 10K for

00:36:00

your buyer AG different services so you

00:36:02

can have someone do ackart do the

00:36:04

disclosure diligence for me for 5K you

00:36:07

know negotiate the purchase for me for

00:36:09

10K and you as a consumer will start to

00:36:11

pick from a a menu of the services that

00:36:14

you want to have rendered for you and

00:36:15

things that you're comfortable doing

00:36:16

yourself I don't need someone to

00:36:17

negotiate price I don't need someone to

00:36:20

find me a home I've got red fin I can go

00:36:21

do that I can arrange open houses on my

00:36:23

own the lock box is there I'll go walk

00:36:25

around the property I don't need someone

00:36:26

to point out the the color is nice in a

00:36:28

room and so I think that there's

00:36:30

elements of what this h of what will

00:36:31

happen here which is a fragmentation and

00:36:34

then an automation of these services and

00:36:35

as a result significant fee

00:36:38

reduction and I'm in the middle of doing

00:36:40

this myself right now with a piece of

00:36:42

real estate where I'm not using an agent

00:36:45

and I've been

00:36:46

using a direct listing service I've used

00:36:49

all of these standard forms there's a

00:36:51

lot of AI tools you can use to kind of

00:36:53

read all the disclosures for you make

00:36:54

sure everything's C pathetic and these

00:36:57

escro they'll handle a lot of what a

00:36:58

lawyer will handle and they'll get paid

00:37:00

a you know a fee which is much less than

00:37:03

the agent fee so I do think that there's

00:37:04

a big disruption happening in this

00:37:06

industry I think it's it's really

00:37:08

important for consumers agents are going

00:37:10

to be you know hands in the air telling

00:37:11

you this is ridiculous you need someone

00:37:12

to help you you need an adviser that

00:37:14

will continue for a good chunk of the

00:37:15

market for a very long period of time

00:37:17

but I do think that it's for the benefit

00:37:19

of consumers over time to see these fees

00:37:21

come out of the system and see those

00:37:23

savings go back in consumer's pockets

00:37:25

and for the value of their real estate

00:37:27

to go

00:37:28

to go in their pockets not into an

00:37:29

agent's pocket is it going to change

00:37:34

the profitability of a realtor pretty

00:37:37

meaningfully right both Realtors won't

00:37:39

be able to be in business right I think

00:37:41

the sellers will do fine and they might

00:37:43

capture more of it because they'll

00:37:45

they'll my understanding is the the the

00:37:47

seller will maybe do both sides of the

00:37:50

transaction no that's not what's going

00:37:52

to happen and there's also going to be

00:37:53

limits on that but but here's what I

00:37:55

will

00:37:56

say if you look at the the the number of

00:37:59

people there are 1.4 million members of

00:38:02

N today the National Association of

00:38:05

Realtors if you look at the distribution

00:38:07

of earnings and you guys know this my

00:38:10

guess is probably 10% of those realtors

00:38:13

make 40% of the fee income or 50% of the

00:38:15

fee income there's a long tale so

00:38:18

there's probably a third of those folks

00:38:20

who are

00:38:21

already kind of sub living standards in

00:38:24

terms of income maybe half of them won't

00:38:27

be able to make enough money in this new

00:38:29

you know fee regime that it'll no longer

00:38:32

be an attractive proposition to be a

00:38:33

real estate agent for maybe half a

00:38:36

million to a million people over time

00:38:39

that are agents today yeah you know it's

00:38:42

interesting this the the sellers are

00:38:45

going to be faced with Buyers who just

00:38:46

show up having seen something on redin

00:38:48

and don't have a buyer's representation

00:38:51

and so they think from the stuff I've

00:38:53

been reading that the sellers agent

00:38:56

might be pointing them to hey go to

00:38:58

these services and be acting as like one

00:39:01

broker essentially representing both

00:39:03

sides that's what people are saying is

00:39:05

the potential downside I don't think

00:39:07

that's yeah that's not gonna happen for

00:39:09

a couple of reasons but let me ask you

00:39:10

guys a question if you guys want to to

00:39:13

go buy a new house currently you just go

00:39:16

you know sign up an agent or buyer agent

00:39:18

they go walk with you and eventually

00:39:19

they'll get paid by the sellers agent so

00:39:21

now you have to negotiate a fee with

00:39:23

them up front would you negotiate a fee

00:39:25

and say to a buyer agent hey I'll you 2%

00:39:28

of whatever home I buy would you be

00:39:29

comfortable doing that or 3% or 4% how

00:39:33

would you have that conversation no what

00:39:35

you say sex I mean forget I know you've

00:39:37

got a different situation because you've

00:39:38

got real estate people like working for

00:39:40

you but like if you were to go out and

00:39:42

and if would you go out and get an agent

00:39:44

and pay and negotiate a fee with him it

00:39:46

is not worth it to the buyer to pay two

00:39:49

to three% of the purchase price to make

00:39:51

appointments you can see all the houses

00:39:53

on MLS through Zillow or redin or

00:39:55

whatever and what about handling closing

00:39:57

and disclosures no buyer would ever

00:39:59

voluntarily agree to pay this massive

00:40:02

commission it's not worth it so it's

00:40:05

game over for the Realtors if buyers are

00:40:09

forced to pay their own broker's

00:40:12

commission the only reason this system

00:40:14

works is because the seller is forced to

00:40:16

pay for it yep and when you sign the

00:40:19

listing agreement with the seller's

00:40:21

agent you can negotiate a little bit at

00:40:23

the margins sometimes you can get the 6%

00:40:25

down to 4 to 5% for a big listing but

00:40:29

50% of it will always go to the buy side

00:40:31

I mean I've said to these guys the buide

00:40:33

agent doesn't do anything why don't you

00:40:34

make it 2% for yourself and 1% for the

00:40:37

buyer they won't do that they just won't

00:40:39

take your business the seller will not

00:40:41

represent you they have like all sorts

00:40:42

of rules against it so the whole thing

00:40:44

is like protect it's like a racket

00:40:46

that's protected some it's cracked yeah

00:40:48

well I I still am like a little bit

00:40:50

skeptical that this is going to work out

00:40:52

exactly the way we're saying because it

00:40:54

is just such a a death blow to the

00:40:57

industry if buyers are forced to pay

00:40:59

their own commissions uh their own like

00:41:01

buy side Brokers commission and in the

00:41:03

Articles they're saying there's still

00:41:05

like some gray area about what's going

00:41:06

to happen but that is what should happen

00:41:10

buyers should be responsible for paying

00:41:11

their own Brokers and if you do that I

00:41:14

think you'll knock out half the fees of

00:41:15

this industry here's an idea why they

00:41:16

let them charge an hourly fee as a

00:41:18

buyer's agent like there will be people

00:41:19

doing that J $200 an hour $300 an hour

00:41:22

doesn't this impact home prices as well

00:41:24

like if you if the buyer had to pay all

00:41:26

of a sudden their affordability

00:41:28

effectively goes down because if they

00:41:30

have to pay an extra $100,000 for a home

00:41:33

then that's $100,000 they can't pay less

00:41:36

than they can pay for the house itself

00:41:38

because they have to pay an agent so it

00:41:40

all comes back into home prices no it

00:41:41

Nets out because the sellers agents no

00:41:43

longer paying 6% they're paying 3% and

00:41:46

so now the sellers agent has 3% more

00:41:52

that yeah but net net I think it's good

00:41:54

for buyers and sellers because the

00:41:56

transaction cost of TR tring go down

00:41:58

exactly money goes back in consumers

00:41:59

Pockets yeah create a more fluid Market

00:42:02

yeah and I think it's a great

00:42:03

opportunity for startups I'll say this

00:42:04

right now like I think there's going to

00:42:06

be a lot of startups that are going to

00:42:07

come out of this ruling that are going

00:42:09

to launch allart Services leveraging AI

00:42:12

to make these services available direct

00:42:14

to Consumers without needing an agent

00:42:16

and they're going to be pretty

00:42:17

compelling services and they're going to

00:42:18

show up real fast I mean a lot of people

00:42:21

will not list their home or sell it

00:42:23

because that

00:42:24

6% might put them underwater so if it's

00:42:27

now now down to two or three totally

00:42:29

yeah people might be like it's always

00:42:31

been crazy to me that anyone would pay a

00:42:32

percent of absolute value it makes no

00:42:35

sense I bought a home for a million I'm

00:42:37

selling it for a million one so I've

00:42:39

made a $100,000 profit but I got to pay

00:42:42

$60,000 of my total growth to an agent

00:42:46

to sell it for me% profit I just gave up

00:42:49

60% of my profit on my home right it

00:42:51

makes no sense and the crazy thing is

00:42:54

that a bad sale of your home would be

00:42:57

let's call it 900,000 or a million and a

00:43:00

great sale would be 1.2 so exactly

00:43:02

there's a very small margin where they

00:43:05

actually have an impact based on the

00:43:07

quality of their effort but they get

00:43:08

compensated for the whole thing yeah for

00:43:11

the whole thing get compensated no

00:43:13

matter should be that you get a flat

00:43:15

rate

00:43:16

$10,000 at a million and then you get

00:43:19

10% over a million or something you

00:43:21

could give just like you with a sales

00:43:23

person the incentive comp should be

00:43:25

variable based on performance whereas

00:43:29

the guaranteed part of the comp should

00:43:31

be like you said a flat fee it's kind of

00:43:32

like the salesperson has an OT right Bas

00:43:35

variable yeah I mean you could say if

00:43:38

you said 1% up to a million so that's

00:43:40

10K and then 10% for the next 100K and

00:43:44

then 20% for the next 100K so you you

00:43:47

know that 1.2 million is really hard to

00:43:49

get yeah I'll give you 20% of that

00:43:50

incremental 100 that would be a much

00:43:52

better deal you would be getting paid

00:43:54

for the actual performance so anyway

00:43:56

really you know Jal I have an idea for

00:43:58

the National Association of Realtors oh

00:44:00

here we go if they want to stop being

00:44:03

perceived as an evil monopolist all they

00:44:05

got to do is put out a cringe ad talking

00:44:06

about the environment everyone's going

00:44:07

to love him again absolutely they should

00:44:09

do an ad where they have a diverse cast

00:44:12

of people and that diverse cast could

00:44:15

talk about like putting sustainable

00:44:17

forestry around it all I got to do is

00:44:19

say something something landfills

00:44:21

everyone will love them again they can

00:44:22

charge ABS absolutely virtual signaling

00:44:24

right they can genu something something

00:44:25

landfills yes absolutely all right let's

00:44:28

keep the train moving here the AI

00:44:30

landscape shifting yet again Microsoft

00:44:33

just just did another one of these

00:44:35

shadow Aqua hires this time of

00:44:38

inflection AI bizarre deal Microsoft has

00:44:41

hired most of the team at inflection AI

00:44:43

including the CEO Mustafa who everybody

00:44:46

knows I just actually had him on this

00:44:47

week in startups he was the co-founder

00:44:50

of deep mind he worked at Google for

00:44:51

years and now he's going to be the CEO

00:44:55

of a new company called Microsoft AI

00:44:58

it's essentially the consumer AI

00:45:00

division of Microsoft but they did give

00:45:01

him the CEO title for background

00:45:04

inflection have raised 1.5 billion over

00:45:06

the last two years it was one of these

00:45:08

giant fundings that occurred to build a

00:45:11

foundational model like open AI is doing

00:45:14

like anthropic is doing they had a chat

00:45:16

bot called Pi very similar to chat GPT

00:45:19

it was supposed to remember your history

00:45:21

and build a relationship with you that's

00:45:22

all getting shut down Reed Hoffman who

00:45:25

is a major investor in in this company

00:45:28

and who's on the board of Microsoft and

00:45:30

who so LinkedIn to Microsoft played an

00:45:32

important role in this deal according to

00:45:34

reports and the inflection investors

00:45:37

included Bill Gates Eric Schmidt and a

00:45:39

bunch of other interesting folks but

00:45:41

this was a aqua hire which is the weird

00:45:43

thing chth they hired all the employees

00:45:46

they leave the shell of a company the

00:45:47

company's going to go do some Enterprise

00:45:50

stuff and investors get to keep their

00:45:53

Equity inflection but I guess that might

00:45:55

be worthless there's some going on here

00:45:57

that we don't know about this deal

00:45:59

structure when you saw this deal and you

00:46:01

see

00:46:02

Satia taking the entire team like he

00:46:05

threatened to do with open AI if you

00:46:06

remember the same exact kind of thing

00:46:07

I'll aquire everybody if you don't take

00:46:09

the deal what is your takee of of what's

00:46:12

going on here why did this occur like

00:46:14

this instead of just buying the company

00:46:17

I mean it occurred like this because

00:46:19

Reed and

00:46:20

Bill are inexorably tied to Microsoft so

00:46:23

they were able to get a deal for

00:46:24

investors that would have never happened

00:46:26

otherwise and so good on them I think

00:46:28

they did a very good job protecting the

00:46:30

fiduciary interests

00:46:33

of the investors of this startup sa no

00:46:36

conflict no interest right yeah I mean

00:46:38

we say that a lot this is so weird

00:46:40

though why not buy the company sax is it

00:46:43

because of antitrust actually that's a

00:46:45

good theory it's just it's hard for

00:46:47

Microsoft to get anything through at

00:46:48

this point so probably they're just like

00:46:50

why even deal with the antitrust they

00:46:52

don't really need the assets so I think

00:46:55

they licensed the core from the

00:46:58

inflection C Corp and then they hire

00:46:59

away all the talent and then the

00:47:01

investors get made whole so I think it's

00:47:04

like an aqua hire with a little bit of

00:47:07

tech along with it that they get through

00:47:09

the licensing deal maybe that's just to

00:47:11

protect them from an IP standpoint my

00:47:13

take on this is that this was a bailout

00:47:16

this was a bailout of the investors I

00:47:18

don't think the investors got ripped off

00:47:19

here I think the investors were like

00:47:21

thrilled to get their money back for

00:47:22

whatever reason this company wasn't

00:47:24

going anywhere it had raised hundreds of

00:47:25

millions of dollars Reed and Bill

00:47:27

obviously are are wired in they're on

00:47:29

the Microsoft board and this company did

00:47:32

have some talent that Microsoft wanted

00:47:34

so they basically did a giant Aqua hire

00:47:36

and it bailed out the investors freeberg

00:47:39

is that your take this is a bailout or

00:47:41

do you think this is a new interesting

00:47:43

end run around antitrust where hey if

00:47:46

Adobe wants to buy the next figma just

00:47:49

buy the team do a license of figma some

00:47:52

faka lunacy or do you think this is a b

00:47:56

what what's your the the here freeberg

00:47:58

and what does it say about Microsoft's

00:48:00

approach to the AI space I don't think

00:48:02

this is some runaround antitrust I think

00:48:05

obviously like a lot of

00:48:08

companies there's been a realization on

00:48:10

how quickly foundational model

00:48:12

development is commoditizing and how

00:48:14

quickly costs are escalating and how

00:48:17

many folks are chasing it so having some

00:48:20

unique advantage in the particular plane

00:48:23

of the market where they were

00:48:25

participating as a startup

00:48:28

maybe became difficult and untenable and

00:48:31

negotiations and conversations between

00:48:33

all these parties who all know each

00:48:34

other very very well and are all very

00:48:36

friendly you know this ended up being

00:48:38

kind of the best way to move forward so

00:48:41

all right there you have it folks in

00:48:43

other related news the Saudis are

00:48:45

planning a $40 billion AI fund according

00:48:47

to the New York Times reps from the

00:48:49

public investment fund uh in

00:48:52

Saudi have spoken to a number of firms

00:48:55

about partnering on it the would be the

00:48:57

second largest Venture fund of all time

00:48:59

behind soft Banks hundred billion Vision

00:49:01

fund one which you remember was also

00:49:03

backed by the Saudis and some other

00:49:05

folks in the Middle East region this new

00:49:07

fund would reportedly invest in AI

00:49:09

startups chip companies and data

00:49:11

centers so we thought we'd do a little

00:49:14

quiz here if you were given the 40

00:49:15

billion David Sachs how would you

00:49:18

allocate the 40 billion in AI in today's

00:49:22

market 2024 going on if they put you in

00:49:24

charge of this $40 billion AA fund II

00:49:27

fund where would you deploy it same

00:49:29

question would come around the horn to

00:49:31

you freeberg and then you

00:49:33

Chima well the first thing is I wouldn't

00:49:35

be in a rush to deploy all 40 billion at

00:49:37

once because that's a recipe for

00:49:39

spraying a lot of money into

00:49:40

unproductive or overhyped things so I

00:49:42

would take my time first of all but

00:49:45

second in terms of coming up with the

00:49:46

framework I would think about the

00:49:48

different levels of the stack of AI and

00:49:51

try to figure out where the value

00:49:52

capture is going to be and I think

00:49:53

there's maybe four different layers of

00:49:55

the stack first you've got the Silicon

00:49:57

you've got the chips where Nvidia is

00:49:58

dominant then you've got the foundation

00:50:01

models where it's open Ai and then

00:50:03

there's some open source models and then

00:50:05

you've got kind of infrastructure Dev

00:50:07

tools Vector databases things like that

00:50:09

and then finally you have the

00:50:09

applications sitting on top of that

00:50:11

which are just getting started I think

00:50:13

it's really hard to know from where

00:50:14

we're seeing today exactly who's going

00:50:16

to capture the most value in the stack I

00:50:18

mean you could make an argument for

00:50:21

against pretty much any layer of the

00:50:22

stack I guess if I had 40 billion to

00:50:25

deploy what I would do is try to

00:50:27

identify who are the leading companies

00:50:30

at each level of the stack and then who

00:50:31

are the most promising Challengers and I

00:50:33

would make a bed at every layer so I'm

00:50:36

covered that's not what I personally do

00:50:38

because I'm not you know I'm just not a

00:50:41

hardware investor I'm not really an

00:50:43

infrastructure investor I'm more of an

00:50:44

application investor so I'm going to

00:50:46

focus on that fourth layer of the stack

00:50:48

and just trust that there's G to be

00:50:49

enough value there but again if I was

00:50:51

managing a $40 billion Sovereign wealth

00:50:54

fund then I would play at every single

00:50:56

level and I would hire the best people

00:50:58

who know each layer of that stack sax

00:51:01

think you did a good job of sort of

00:51:03

showing the the four layers of the stack

00:51:05

I think open source the application

00:51:07

layer and specifically Robotics are huge

00:51:10

opportunities that are underinvested in

00:51:11

right now so I would take the top open

00:51:13

source projects I'd find those top

00:51:15

contributors take the top 20 or so open

00:51:17

source projects and back them to the

00:51:19

tune of you know significant money 50

00:51:21

million 100 million whatever it takes

00:51:24

and try to own the top 20 or have

00:51:26

insights into those top 20 open source

00:51:28

models and own those teams look for the

00:51:30

top contributors really easy to do on

00:51:33

GitHub and hugging face and repet and

00:51:35

other places where they're active and

00:51:37

Empower

00:51:38

those then obviously there's verticals

00:51:41

we're working on people who are doing

00:51:42

screenplays and tax just like you are

00:51:44

sacks and that's a fantastic place to

00:51:47

deploy money but then I think robotics

00:51:48

is going to be super super compelling

00:51:51

here and that takes a lot of money and

00:51:54

so you do have the capital as a weapon

00:51:57

and you know the 20-year view of this

00:51:59

and making a general P purpose robot

00:52:02

like elon's doing with Optimus or figure

00:52:04

AI is doing with their robot I think

00:52:07

robotics is a major place you could

00:52:09

probably buy I don't know who owns

00:52:11

Boston Dynamics now I know Google sold

00:52:12

it so you could probably buy some

00:52:14

robotic companies and then put the AI on

00:52:16

them and really take a 20-year view of

00:52:20

Robotics freeberg your thoughts how

00:52:22

would you deploy the 40 million the

00:52:24

bottom Three Stacks are are very

00:52:27

difficult right now to

00:52:29

find a footing obviously you know I

00:52:32

think saxs the you know it's it's the I

00:52:34

think the generally accepted framework

00:52:36

for how to think about how the market is

00:52:38

broken

00:52:39

apart but on the application side I

00:52:42

think is where you could think about

00:52:44

finding

00:52:46

more traditional business model

00:52:49

advantages so you know I think your

00:52:51

point about robotics is a really

00:52:52

interesting one you know is there a

00:52:54

Enterprise likee sale of robotics tools

00:52:57

that have positive Roi for Enterprises

00:53:00

and is there a business that's working

00:53:01

there and that is scalable vertical

00:53:04

Solutions in labor and Automation and

00:53:06

productivity gains are probably the best

00:53:09

sharp ratio good Alpha lower beta and a

00:53:13

good place to kind of deploy competing

00:53:15

in chips competing in infrastructure

00:53:18

competing in models it's such a you know

00:53:20

as we just talked about with respect to

00:53:22

what happened with inflection and

00:53:24

Microsoft this week it's such a rapidly

00:53:26

changing environment it's hard to have

00:53:28

high confidence in where things are

00:53:29

headed there so I do think that we do

00:53:32

know that there are Enterprise markets

00:53:33

we know that there are segments of

00:53:35

things like food

00:53:37

medicine you know manufacturing these

00:53:39

are markets that aren't going anywhere

00:53:42

and they could all certainly benefit

00:53:43

from unlocks in software or in robotics

00:53:46

and Automation and Hardware so that's

00:53:49

probably where I would think about

00:53:51

concentrating Capital but you know 40

00:53:53

billion is a lot of money so you'd

00:53:55

probably think about deploying it over

00:53:56

what period of time is it 10 billion a

00:53:58

year over four years and then is it

00:54:00

broken apart in what way over those

00:54:02

sectors and over what geographies and

00:54:05

you know then find good managers to help

00:54:06

you get it

00:54:08

employed trth you're batting clean up

00:54:10

here you got to hear everybody's answers

00:54:12

before giving your own what are your

00:54:14

thoughts on your other besties answers

00:54:16

and what's your plan to deploy 40

00:54:18

billion for the Kingdom of Saudi

00:54:21

Arabia's public investment fund the most

00:54:23

important thing that fund managers get

00:54:25

wrong is not having appropriate reserves

00:54:28

for your winners and if I look back the

00:54:32

real profit dollars that I leaked was

00:54:34

not not investing enough up front but

00:54:37

when I didn't have enough Reserve to do

00:54:39

the full prata or even super prata and

00:54:41

the ones that worked so the first thing

00:54:43

you have to do and when I do the

00:54:44

regression on all of my funds you really

00:54:47

need to reserve between 40 and 50% of a

00:54:50

total fund size for reserves so take 20

00:54:52

billion off the table and now you have a

00:54:54

smaller problem which is how do you

00:54:55

deploy 20 billion because the other 20

00:54:57

billion is purely meant for the winners

00:55:00

where you cram the money into the few

00:55:01

that are winning so that you can make

00:55:03

the most money of that 20 billion I

00:55:07

would probably take 2third of it and I

00:55:10

would go to all the hyperscalers and

00:55:12

anybody that's providing Cloud compute

00:55:15

and essentially buy out all of the

00:55:17

compute credits on

00:55:19

gpus so that I could tell any startup in

00:55:22

the world you will do a safe with me the

00:55:26

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia I will give you

00:55:29

free compute on pick your cloud provider

00:55:32

pick your model I don't care so if you

00:55:34

want to run llama on grock great if you

00:55:37

want to run mistol on gcp great if you

00:55:40

want to run open AI on open AI fantastic

00:55:44

but we will pay for all the compute in

00:55:46

return we get 7% up front and you have

00:55:49

to tell us some Benchmark of how this

00:55:51

model is

00:55:52

improving and then you are hiring a team

00:55:55

of people whose job it is and you can

00:55:57

probably train a model to do this as

00:55:59

well to ingest the reporting in a

00:56:02

systematic way to understand if it is as

00:56:05

you guys said a robotics company there

00:56:07

are measures of the quality of a robo A

00:56:11

robot's dexterity or Vision or

00:56:13

manipulation or tax completion rate if

00:56:15

it's a search engine it's a different

00:56:17

thing if it's a consumer facing app it

00:56:19

could be users if it's a drug Discovery

00:56:21

app it's the number of legitimate

00:56:23

protein synthesis passes that that pass

00:56:27

whatever it is so now you've scoped the

00:56:30

problem to 20 billion is in reserves 15

00:56:33

billion of it is tied up in credits and

00:56:35

then the five billion I do think it's

00:56:36

what David said what saak said which is

00:56:39

a billion and a half to the hardware a

00:56:41

billion and a half to infrastructure a

00:56:43

billion and a half to some of these

00:56:44

discrete

00:56:45

ideas you probably need a 30 or 40

00:56:48

person team total no

00:56:50

more but that business can could make a

00:56:52

trillion dollars if it was set up that

00:56:54

way but the key is to get the credits

00:56:56

out to people so that the reality is

00:56:59

what the commonality across every single

00:57:02

AI startup is that they will have to run

00:57:04

on a model and that model will be hosted

00:57:07

somewhere in a cloud and all of that

00:57:09

compute will need to be paid for so

00:57:11

Saudi Arabia should pay for that compute

00:57:14

get six or s% UPF front and retitle the

00:57:17

safe not as the what is a safe called

00:57:21

Jason simple agreement for future Equity

00:57:25

there should be the Saudi

00:57:27

for future Equity I love it that's what

00:57:30

right well there you have it MBS the

00:57:32

Allin KSA $40 billion fund give us a

00:57:36

call we'll fire it up and we'll deploy

00:57:38

the 40 billion for you I kid maybe

00:57:41

actually I'm curious you guys since

00:57:43

everyone kind of seems to agree with the

00:57:45

the framework of the four levels of the

00:57:47

stack where do you guys think the value

00:57:49

cap is going to be do you think it's

00:57:50

going to be by the chip companies the

00:57:53

foundation model companies the INF

00:57:56

structure companies or the or the

00:57:57

applications I'll actually change my

00:57:59

answer in a little bit I don't think

00:58:01

it's necessarily new technology

00:58:02

companies per se that are going to

00:58:04

benefit most but I think that it's

00:58:06

businesses in traditional industries

00:58:08

that are going to be able to leverage

00:58:10

these tools whether they're using open

00:58:11

source tools or third party technology

00:58:14

capabilities that they're buying as a

00:58:16

service or as a piece of software

00:58:18

there's an incredible set of advances

00:58:20

are going to be realized in things like

00:58:21

chemical

00:58:22

manufacturing drugs General

00:58:24

manufacturing that have existing scale

00:58:27

and infrastructure that are the fastest

00:58:29

to move to adopt these Technologies are

00:58:32

going to benefit the the most and I

00:58:33

think that's probably where most of the

00:58:34

value will acre is not necessarily a

00:58:37

chip company but in other businesses in

00:58:39

traditional industries that can

00:58:40

transform themselves using AI so your

00:58:44

answer is at the application level level

00:58:46

yeah and then within application Level

00:58:48

you could divide it up between existing

00:58:49

companies and startups yeah and existing

00:58:52

companies are able to leverage AI

00:58:55

innovations that are lower in the stack

00:58:57

another way to answer your question saxs

00:58:59

is which is the most CR which spaces are

00:59:01

the most crowded already and so

00:59:03

obviously chips are super crowded lots

00:59:04

of incumbents lots of people going after

00:59:06

it and the foundation models are very

00:59:08

crowded as well and the application

00:59:10

Level is yet to sort of be built out

00:59:14

right because we're in year zero or year

00:59:15

one of that so I do think application

00:59:17

Level is where there's a lot of value

00:59:19

but I also think the hosting and the

00:59:22

development of these various Niche

00:59:24

models is going to be a huge opportunity

00:59:26

so just once again those open source

00:59:28

models being put into cloud computing

00:59:30

environments and optimized that could be

00:59:33

a whole new level of aws's and Google

00:59:36

cloud and azures so there's an

00:59:39

opportunity for somebody to compete with

00:59:41

those incumbents by just being better at

00:59:44

those models that are open source and

00:59:46

having the team that's doing those

00:59:48

updates and then optimizing that cloud

00:59:50

so I would go with the cloud level for

00:59:51

those open source models and providing

00:59:53

that as a service like VMware does or

00:59:56

other folks do WordPress would be a tiny

00:59:58

example of an open source project like

01:00:00

that and then I just something tells me

01:00:03

this robotic space which has been a

01:00:04

false start over and over and over again

01:00:07

I think this is the time where actually

01:00:09

it's going to work and so I'm I I love

01:00:12

that Hardware robotic space for I think

01:00:15

you're right SX I think it's kind of

01:00:16

bookended in my mind I think the the

01:00:18

folks that are building fundamental

01:00:20

Hardware will make a lot of money over

01:00:22

the next 5 to 10 years and then the

01:00:24

folks that are building

01:00:26

the fundamental application Level

01:00:27

experiences will make a lot of money as

01:00:29

well and then who

01:00:31

knows the thing that we're not talking

01:00:33

about enough and I don't understand it

01:00:35

well enough is the entire way in which

01:00:38

apps are built needs to fundamentally be

01:00:41

rethought from first principles because

01:00:43

you essentially basically have these

01:00:45

client server apps where you have all of

01:00:48

this business logic that's sitting back

01:00:51

in some server somewhere and I don't

01:00:53

think that that's how apps get built

01:00:55

today in a world of AI and so it doesn't

01:00:58

need to work that way so I don't exactly

01:01:00

know what that means but it it just

01:01:02

seems like most of the architecture of

01:01:04

how the internet works today doesn't

01:01:05

make much sense so that would then

01:01:07

support free br's point that all of the

01:01:09

kind of the Legacy things that we all

01:01:11

know and trust also get rebuilt and so

01:01:13

that could create an entire wave where

01:01:15

networking value gets recreated and

01:01:17

everything so so my gosh I mean it could

01:01:20

be very very transformational yeah I

01:01:23

mean the idea that you would just talk

01:01:25

to a computer or in a chat interface and

01:01:27

you wouldn't use an app interface you

01:01:29

would just ask it questions it would

01:01:30

give you answers ask a questions it

01:01:31

gives you answers give it a task it

01:01:32

gives you a result this is why comp this

01:01:35

is why like Saudi needs to basically

01:01:37

make a bet that there's just developers

01:01:39

that are swarming around ideas let them

01:01:42

show you what's happening because paying

01:01:44

800 million a year of fees is not the

01:01:47

best way to generate a return on $40

01:01:49

billion if this is where you want to be

01:01:51

investing I don't think yeah 800 million

01:01:53

could pay for a lot of credits which

01:01:55

probably gets you once closer to the to

01:01:57

the answer or rdit went public today

01:01:59

they have 800 million in Revenue company

01:02:01

is worth over 8 billion dollar in

01:02:05

trading it's up 50% what do you think

01:02:08

chamath is this the opening of the IPO

01:02:10

window again so a oneoff we got stripe

01:02:13

coming and what do you take from it

01:02:15

popping 50% on the first

01:02:18

day I don't know I really haven't looked

01:02:21

at the company I haven't looked at the

01:02:23

the

01:02:24

financials but like these last three or

01:02:27

four weeks I think people have been so

01:02:29

excited and rearing to

01:02:31

go we're in the middle of another meme

01:02:34

coin craze oh God don't bring it up we

01:02:37

all getting pulled into that nonsense I

01:02:39

think the point is that I think there is

01:02:42

a speculative party going on right now

01:02:45

and I'm not saying that Reddit is part

01:02:47

of it but whenever these things are so

01:02:51

mispriced just means that people are are

01:02:53

ready to gamble a little bit there's

01:02:55

definitely a lot of gambling in the

01:02:56

system as we've seen and we're recording

01:02:59

this on Thursday so who knows what the

01:03:00

stock price will be tomorrow generally

01:03:03

way sorry the the other thing is like

01:03:06

Powell did say finally it looks pretty

01:03:08

likely we're going to get these three

01:03:09

Cuts so we're going to be down to four

01:03:12

and a half to

01:03:14

475 on fed funds by the end of the year

01:03:18

it probably means that we'll get another

01:03:19

50 to 75 basis points through 2025 so

01:03:22

people will look out to the end of 2025

01:03:25

and look at a fed funds rate that's sort

01:03:26

of like 375 to 4% so they're getting

01:03:29

pretty excited and froed up so this is

01:03:33

the beginning of the beginning in terms

01:03:35

of that kind of speculation yeah we saw

01:03:37

crypto go bonkers the last couple of

01:03:39

weeks yeah what's your take on all this

01:03:42

Sachs is does it feel like people are in

01:03:46

h gamble mode again and does that

01:03:48

concern you I guess after what we just

01:03:51

experienced well I think they're pricing

01:03:54

in these rate Cuts as if they're

01:03:55

definitely going to happen like jamas

01:03:57

said I think the the Market's

01:03:59

expectation is with let's call it 70%

01:04:03

certainty that you're going to get three

01:04:04

rate Cuts this year and it still seems

01:04:07

to me that that's a little bit up in the

01:04:09

air because inflation has not come down

01:04:12

to the fed's Target of 2% it's still

01:04:14

right around 3%

01:04:16

3.1% so it's been sticky around 3% it

01:04:20

was coming down pretty fast last year

01:04:22

but it's still there so people I think

01:04:24

are Maybe gambling in the sense that

01:04:26

they're counting on R cuts that haven't

01:04:28

happened yet but they liked Pal's doish

01:04:33

rhetoric yesterday and they seem to

01:04:36

think that that means that the ray cuts

01:04:37

are definitely

01:04:38

coming I don't know how pal can promise

01:04:41

that without inflation coming down

01:04:42

unless he's trying to create a Biden put

01:04:46

there it is folks which was my theory

01:04:48

going into this year is that yeah get a

01:04:51

Biden put from the FED absolutely and

01:04:54

it's looking like Biden has a clear path

01:04:56

to Victory based on the lowest

01:04:57

unemployment of our lifetimes and this

01:05:00

roaring stock market

01:05:02

records yeah it's just a easy Biden

01:05:04

Victory freedberg what do you

01:05:07

think about the risk

01:05:10

on I don't know Biden is incredibly

01:05:13

unpopular if you look at his actual

01:05:15

polling he should not win the election

01:05:17

but that's in spite of you're right the

01:05:19

economy is seems to be doing pretty well

01:05:21

and the stock market certainly doing

01:05:22

pretty well a president with the these

01:05:26

fundamentals would normally get

01:05:27

reelected but Biden currently is not his

01:05:30

polling is not the polling of a

01:05:31

president who's going to get reelected

01:05:33

it is but pal comes if pal comes through

01:05:36

with the ray cuts that will help him

01:05:39

it's pretty amazing how horrible a job

01:05:40

he's doing that he's made Trump look

01:05:42

like a better candidate to some people

01:05:44

that is an extraordinary achievement by

01:05:46

Biden I will have to

01:05:47

agree there look I think the the bigger

01:05:51

economic issue to be talking about was

01:05:53

that buried article in the The Wall

01:05:55

Street Journal about commercial real

01:05:58

estate do you see that article that was

01:06:00

crazy so this Wall Street Journal

01:06:02

article reported that of the 36 billion

01:06:04

of office loans that came due in the

01:06:07

commercial mortgage back Securities

01:06:09

market last year only one quarter were

01:06:12

paid off in full that's according to

01:06:14

data from Real Estate analytics fir cred

01:06:16

10 is that extend and pretend strategy

01:06:19

that you see in there oh yeah I mean

01:06:21

only one quarter of the loans got paid

01:06:23

off so 75% get paid off in full so

01:06:27

there's tons of buildings that are

01:06:28

underwater right now but nobody wants to

01:06:32

foreclose and then sell them at a fire

01:06:34

sale price so yeah everyone is it's

01:06:37

pretend an extend yeah kicking the can

01:06:39

down the road nobody wants to take the

01:06:40

medicine so yeah well they're hoping

01:06:42

they're hoping that rates will come down

01:06:43

fast enough and occupancy rates will go

01:06:45

up fast enough that no one has to

01:06:48

foreclose but if rates don't come down

01:06:52

then you have a real problem I mean

01:06:53

again everyone is just assuming that

01:06:55

inflation will continue its path from 3%

01:06:58

to 2% and then we'll get these rate cuts

01:07:01

and they're hoping they can cling on

01:07:02

landlords are Clinging On And I think

01:07:04

the banks that loan them all this money

01:07:06

are clinging on for dear life but if

01:07:10

rates stay higher longer then you're

01:07:13

going to see some real distress yeah

01:07:15

including in the regional banking system

01:07:17

freeberg you had a a science corner here

01:07:19

a couple of different things came up the

01:07:20

Hubble telescope 3D

01:07:23

printed organs what where do you want to

01:07:25

go with this I mean do you guys want to

01:07:27

talk about how the universe is expanding

01:07:30

at an accelerating rate and expanding

01:07:32

differentially everywhere we look and we

01:07:34

don't understand how or why 100% And sax

01:07:37

needs to use the L so yeah

01:07:40

definitely red he dropped he dropped I

01:07:43

love science quarter let's do it

01:07:45

freeberg it's your time to sign to to

01:07:48

shine of science tell us what's going on

01:07:50

with the universe my favorite topic

01:07:53

astrophysics my favorite top

01:07:56

my Z is back are we headed for Uranus we

01:08:00

dead set on it we're

01:08:03

dead he disappeared again he's just

01:08:05

gonna drop in and do an Uranus jokes I

01:08:07

hear him giggling with his camera he's

01:08:10

with his writers he's he just went to

01:08:11

the writer's room to get an update on

01:08:13

the Uranus jokes it's long been known

01:08:17

that our universe is expanding we've all

01:08:20

heard about the The Big Bang

01:08:22

Theory

01:08:24

and couple decades ago scientists began

01:08:28

to

01:08:29

observe the brightness of supern noi or

01:08:34

exploding stars and then by looking at

01:08:37

their brightness we could tell how far

01:08:38

away they were and then looking at the

01:08:40

shift of the light whether it's getting

01:08:42

red or blue you can tell whether the

01:08:44

light the the the Supernova is moving

01:08:47

away from us or towards us and how

01:08:49

quickly and so what scientists have used

01:08:53

those observations to deduce several

01:08:56

decades ago and for which a group won

01:08:58

the Nobel Prize is that our universe is

01:09:02

expanding meaning that everything is

01:09:05

moving away from itself it's almost as

01:09:07

if we're all in a cake the best analogy

01:09:09

I've heard is that there's raisins in

01:09:10

the cake and as the cake expands in the

01:09:13

oven all of those raisins look around

01:09:15

and they're all moving apart from each

01:09:17

other so the distance between everything

01:09:19

is getting wider space is

01:09:23

expanding Central moment the Big Bang

01:09:26

that's the theory is right this all

01:09:28

started in the Big Bang and it's not

01:09:29

like you know we're all in the middle of

01:09:31

the universe and the universe is moving

01:09:32

away from us it's that the entire

01:09:35

entirety of space is expanding itself

01:09:37

and so everything is moving away from

01:09:39

everything else the challenge in the

01:09:40

data was that recently we saw that

01:09:42

different types of

01:09:44

stars that were observed with the Hubble

01:09:46

Space

01:09:47

Telescope had actually a

01:09:50

different rate of expansion of the

01:09:53

universe than what was previously

01:09:55

thought from the Supernova that we saw

01:09:57

and everyone thought there was something

01:09:58

wrong with the Hubble Space Telescope

01:09:59

data so you know in a final print

01:10:02

published last month the James web Space

01:10:06

Telescope which showed much higher

01:10:09

resolution of Imaging and as a result

01:10:11

much better data and here's an image of

01:10:13

it you can just see the difference

01:10:15

between what came out of James web and

01:10:17

what was used in Hubble so that shows

01:10:19

one star that was used to calculate the

01:10:22

rate of expansion of the universe and

01:10:24

what this sh star showed is that the

01:10:26

rate of expansion of the universe as

01:10:29

measured across a thousand of these

01:10:31

Stars called sehid stars in five

01:10:32

different galaxies had a value that

01:10:35

didn't match the value that we see when

01:10:36

we look at exploding Stars very far away

01:10:40

and so it once again confirms what the

01:10:43

original Hubble data showed which is

01:10:44

that the universe is expanding at

01:10:47

different rates in different parts of

01:10:49

the universe which totally doesn't make

01:10:51

sense and there's no really clear answer

01:10:53

as to the physics of why if there was a

01:10:55

big bang and the universe started to

01:10:57

expand it should be expanding the same

01:10:59

everywhere there's no reason that

01:11:00

different parts of the universe should

01:11:02

be expanding at a different rate than

01:11:04

other parts of the universe that there's

01:11:05

differential expansion happening Across

01:11:07

the Universe and it really tells us that

01:11:09

there's very little we know or

01:11:11

understand about this large scale

01:11:13

structure of the universe and why these

01:11:15

things are happening there was one group

01:11:17

that put out a theory where they said

01:11:19

that the local Universe where we see

01:11:21

these seph stars that this data is based

01:11:24

on there's almost a little bubble and on

01:11:26

the outside of the bubble there's

01:11:27

galaxies and they're pulling stuff out

01:11:29

faster than what's happening where

01:11:30

there's not as much density so there's a

01:11:32

lot of different reasons and and

01:11:34

explanations for why this might be

01:11:35

happening but it's kind of a big story

01:11:38

because it basically confirms that we

01:11:40

see a lot of differential expansion

01:11:42

happening Across the Universe and we

01:11:43

don't know why just another big mystery

01:11:46

of the universe so super kind of

01:11:47

interesting confirmatory data from James

01:11:49

wed this week Jam do you want to talk

01:11:51

about the the the pig kidney I mean I

01:11:55

think it's it's really incredible they

01:11:57

took a kidney from a pig and then they

01:12:01

used crisper casine to edit out the

01:12:05

certain subset of the pig genes and edit

01:12:07

in a certain useful subset of human

01:12:09

genes and then they transplanted that

01:12:11

kidney into a 64 year old

01:12:13

man I and he apparently seems to be

01:12:16

doing well it's really incredible and

01:12:18

this is a guy that was at end stage

01:12:20

kidney disease and my father went

01:12:24

through this but when you're at that

01:12:26

endstage renal disease you're getting

01:12:28

dialed every 3 days for up to four five

01:12:32

six hours trying to basically you have a

01:12:35

machine that does the job the kidneys

01:12:37

for you to keep your blood clean but

01:12:39

it's just it's kind of a death sentence

01:12:40

and it's like a slow moving death

01:12:43

sentence at that so the idea that you

01:12:45

could

01:12:46

now use this effectively Infinite Source

01:12:50

of

01:12:53

organs seems really

01:12:56

compelling pretty amazing I don't know

01:12:58

what do you

01:13:00

think definitely where we're headed I

01:13:03

don't even think they're gonna need yeah

01:13:06

speaking of medical breakthroughs did

01:13:08

you guys see the the guy who got the

01:13:10

neuralink

01:13:11

chip chess with his brain he's using the

01:13:14

force yeah that was awesome using the

01:13:16

force yeah he described it as he was

01:13:19

playing chess and he said like I love

01:13:20

playing chess and I've learned to use my

01:13:22

mind to move pieces around and he said

01:13:25

like it's like having the force I mean

01:13:27

totally wow amazing I watched the live

01:13:29

stream and he said that he was a

01:13:31

quadriplegic from the shoulders down but

01:13:34

he loves chess he wasn't able to play

01:13:35

chess now he's able to play chess he was

01:13:37

able to play Civilization the game which

01:13:39

I guess was really

01:13:41

hard in the absence of having this this

01:13:43

chip and now he can do that it's it's

01:13:45

incredible I mean it's that they kind of

01:13:48

went public with it or I mean obviously

01:13:50

he agreed to go public with it I think

01:13:52

Trevor is his name it's pretty amazing

01:13:55

and there's more amazing stuff coming

01:13:58

they're making significant progress over

01:13:59

there I was talking to somebody who

01:14:01

works there and you know it's it's it's

01:14:04

going to

01:14:06

be yeah it's it's going to be a process

01:14:09

but they're making significant Pro

01:14:11

progress and they're going to have I

01:14:13

think even bigger announcements in the

01:14:14

coming year they're getting it done it's

01:14:18

for FKS my kids were really Blown Away

01:14:20

by it you know it's it's interesting to

01:14:22

me what like penetrates their cynicism

01:14:25

and like what they get actually

01:14:27

impressed or excited by and they thought

01:14:29

this was really cool you know it's so

01:14:31

funny it's like people are breathlessly

01:14:33

like looking at the Elon Don Lemon video

01:14:36

and they're trying to opine whether he

01:14:38

had a good interview or a bad interview

01:14:40

and it's like he actually had one of the

01:14:42

best weeks of his life yeah Starship

01:14:45

three made it up yeah Starship had an

01:14:48

incredible performance last week and

01:14:50

then this thing this week I mean what an

01:14:53

incredible 7-Day run it's more than most

01:14:55

of us will have in our lifetime it's

01:14:57

it's also nuts like C that Don Lemon

01:15:00

interview like there was actually some

01:15:01

really interesting topics discussed but

01:15:03

I I felt like this was like this was the

01:15:05

perfect like baton passing between old

01:15:08

media and and New Media where he was

01:15:10

constantly trying to do a gotta

01:15:12

journalism thing and Elon was trying to

01:15:14

engage in good faith and like an

01:15:16

interesting discussion and then every

01:15:18

time the discussion got interesting he

01:15:20

kept trying to go back to like

01:15:21

Sensational gotcha journalism and it was

01:15:24

a totally wasted opportunity if he had

01:15:25

just Don Lemon had just stayed in the

01:15:27

moment and like engaged in good faith

01:15:29

instead of trying to get this like clip

01:15:32

it was it really bad performance by Don

01:15:34

LM and I

01:15:35

thought it was really getting

01:15:36

interesting at moments in time he's

01:15:38

obviously trying to get a job back at

01:15:39

some mainstream Media Company maybe this

01:15:42

is his this is his resume if he can

01:15:45

basically get some clip of Elon saying

01:15:48

something that he can twist into

01:15:49

something that it doesn't mean and he

01:15:51

can say I got Elon Musk then he can get

01:15:53

his job back at CNN or one of those he

01:15:56

got paid out in full like 20 30 million

01:15:58

bucks and by the way those jobs are not

01:16:00

they don't exist anymore like Tucker and

01:16:03

him were like the last of that

01:16:05

generation to get those huge payday over

01:16:08

Don Lemon got paid $30 million by whom I

01:16:11

think CNN the report was CNN paid out

01:16:14

his full contract the same thing

01:16:16

happened I think with Tucker they both

01:16:17

got paid their full contracts whoever

01:16:19

negotiates those contracts with the

01:16:21

networks over the last couple of decades

01:16:23

is awesome because it's pay it's pay for

01:16:26

play like whether you are on air or not

01:16:29

you get paid and the and then they don't

01:16:31

let you go to a competitor that's why

01:16:33

both of them are doing internet stuff X

01:16:36

or whatever carved out stuff just wanted

01:16:37

to give a shout out here at the end of

01:16:39

the Pod for the guys at all in talk

01:16:41

Chris and Spencer did an amazing job the

01:16:44

team over there from good future media

01:16:45

of creating just that amazing fan

01:16:48

account now that we're growing up here

01:16:49

over at Allin and we'll have a CEO

01:16:51

announcement at some point we have taken

01:16:55

over the accounts and we're starting to

01:16:56

make our own Clips so thanks to them for

01:16:59

supporting us and helping grow it if you

01:17:02

want to see the four of us go to YouTube

01:17:04

and type in Allin podcast and then

01:17:06

subscribe uh we're almost at 500,000

01:17:09

subscribers and we decided that if we

01:17:11

hit one million subscribers by the end

01:17:13

of the year we're going to throw a party

01:17:15

and uh you all will be invited we'll

01:17:18

have as many people at the party as

01:17:19

possible so go ahead and find us on Tik

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search for Allin and you can search for

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all of us jamath David fredberg David

01:17:29

Sachs and Jason calacanis thanks again

01:17:32

to the super fans for helping us build

01:17:34

up this amazing audience couldn't have

01:17:36

done it without you and uh yeah we're

01:17:38

we're just posting Clips I think every

01:17:40

other day on the YouTube channel and so

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then right next to it there's a little

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referring to charts that's all on the

01:17:55

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01:17:58

David freeberg I am Jason K canis and we

01:18:02

will see love you boys world's greatest

01:18:03

moderator you forgot your and uh the

01:18:06

host of this week in startups so search

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for my podcast this week in startups we

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interview startup Founders gotta get a

01:18:11

plug in for that no some people don't

01:18:12

know I have another podcast so please

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search for this week in startups And

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subscribe to that as well we'll see you

01:18:17

all next time byebye love you

01:18:20

boys let your winners

01:18:23

ride Rainman d

01:18:28

and instead we open source it to the

01:18:30

fans and they've just gone crazy with it

01:18:32

love

01:18:36

[Music]

01:18:40

you besties

01:18:42

are that's my dog taking your

01:18:45

[Music]

01:18:48

driveway oh man my meet me we should all

01:18:52

just get a room and just have one big

01:18:53

huge orgy cuz they're all usess it's

01:18:55

like this like sexual tension that they

01:18:57

just need to release

01:19:03

Som we need to get merch

01:19:09

[Music]

01:19:13

our

01:19:16

[Music]

01:19:18

going

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

60
Most shocking

Episode Highlights

Dune Debate
A heated discussion about the movie Dune, with differing opinions on its quality.
“It's worth seeing twice!”
@ 00m 12s
March 22, 2024
DOJ Lawsuit Against Apple
The DOJ dropped a Sherman Act suit on Apple, alleging anti-competitive practices.
“Apple's entire product strategy is based on creating a vertically integrated stack.”
@ 06m 40s
March 22, 2024
Microsoft's Browser Monopoly
Microsoft leveraged its operating system monopoly to dominate the browser market, threatening competition.
“They were trying to break HTML in Open Standards.”
@ 20m 00s
March 22, 2024
Apple's AI Strategy
Apple's potential partnership with Google for AI features raises questions about its innovation strategy.
“It's akin to IBM in the 70s going to Microsoft.”
@ 25m 03s
March 22, 2024
Real Estate Commission Settlement
A landmark settlement could reshape how real estate commissions are structured in the U.S.
“This is going to be healthy because you have to have this conversation.”
@ 33m 32s
March 22, 2024
The Disruption of Real Estate Fees
A shift in the real estate industry could lead to lower fees for consumers, benefiting them in the long run.
“It's for the benefit of consumers over time to see these fees come out of the system.”
@ 37m 19s
March 22, 2024
Microsoft's Inflection AI Acquisition
Microsoft acquires the team behind Inflection AI, signaling a strategic move in the AI landscape.
“Microsoft has hired most of the team at Inflection AI, including the CEO.”
@ 44m 38s
March 22, 2024
Saudi Arabia's $40 Billion AI Fund
Saudi Arabia plans to launch a massive AI fund, potentially reshaping the investment landscape.
“The Saudis are planning a $40 billion AI fund according to the New York Times.”
@ 48m 45s
March 22, 2024
Saudi Arabia's Compute Investment
Saudi Arabia should fund cloud compute for startups, transforming the AI landscape.
“Saudi Arabia should pay for that compute.”
@ 57m 11s
March 22, 2024
Transformational AI Interaction
The future of apps may involve talking to computers instead of using interfaces.
“The idea that you would just talk to a computer is transformational.”
@ 01h 01m 23s
March 22, 2024
Differential Expansion of the Universe
Recent data shows the universe is expanding at different rates, challenging existing theories.
“The universe is expanding at different rates in different parts.”
@ 01h 10m 44s
March 22, 2024
Elon and Don Lemon's Interview
A discussion that highlighted the clash between old media and new media.
“This was the perfect baton passing between old media and new media.”
@ 01h 15m 05s
March 22, 2024

Episode Quotes

Apple's entire product strategy is based on creating a vertically integrated stack.
E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
If you give them an inch they'll take the mile.
E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
It's a crazy shock to the system.
E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
It's always been crazy to me that anyone would pay a percent of absolute value.
E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
The idea that you would just talk to a computer is transformational.
E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
The idea that you could use this effectively infinite source of organs is compelling.
E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more

Key Moments

DOJ Lawsuit01:15
Real Estate Disruption37:04
Microsoft Acquisition44:38
Saudi AI Fund48:45
AI Compute Investment57:11
Transformational AI1:01:23
Organ Transplant Breakthrough1:12:56
Party Announcement1:17:13

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more

May 19, 2023

01:28:05

E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more

E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics

March 08, 2024

01:34:00

E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics

E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more

June 25, 2021

01:19:50

E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more

E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update

December 08, 2023

01:32:29

E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update

E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan

September 04, 2021

01:24:00

E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan

E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more

October 30, 2021

01:19:17

E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more

DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

June 07, 2024

01:25:26

DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more

May 01, 2021

01:21:39

E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more

E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more

May 22, 2021

01:30:10

E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more

E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more

December 16, 2023

01:39:26

E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more

OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis

August 09, 2025

01:50:43

OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis

E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner

March 03, 2023

01:56:25

E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner