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US Job Growth Revised Down by 818K!

August 21, 2024 / 00:59

This episode discusses job market forecasts, economic data revisions, and the implications of the birth-death model for businesses. Key topics include the discrepancy in job estimates, the trend of downward revisions, and the current economic state.

The conversation highlights how initial job estimates often differ from final numbers, with a focus on the recent figure of 88,000 jobs compared to earlier projections of up to 1 million. The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the revisions rather than just the initial numbers.

Listeners learn about the implications of these revisions on the perception of the economy, particularly in the context of a lowkey recession. The episode stresses that economic forecasts are frequently adjusted, leading to a more pessimistic view of job growth.

TLDR

Job market forecasts are often overestimated and revised down, indicating a lowkey recession.

Episode

0:59

00:00:00

you know the the range of how many jobs they would take away for a variety of reasons maybe the largest is the birth

00:00:06

death model for businesses was going to be somewhere between 350,000 and 1 million it comes in at

00:00:14

88,000 the economic data that comes out keeps getting reforecast down so they put out a provisional number or an

00:00:21

estimate and then when they finalize the number 3 months or 6 months later it always seems to go in One Direction

00:00:27

we've seen this over and over again with new jobs being reforecast down and we saw this with a q1 GDP we're in a lowkey

00:00:35

recession so I think that we're going to probably go through a couple of very difficult revisions of old data the

00:00:43

thing to remember about non-farm payrolls isn't as much what the number is but if you actually look to the

00:00:49

number of times it then gets revised the reality is that these things get revised

00:00:53

constantly and right now we're in this trend where we are overestimating and revising down

Episode Highlights

Job Forecasting Trends
Economic data on job numbers is frequently revised downward, indicating a troubling trend.
“These things get revised constantly.”
@ 00m 51s
August 21, 2024

Episode Quotes

We're in a lowkey recession.
US Job Growth Revised Down by 818K!
These things get revised constantly.
US Job Growth Revised Down by 818K!

Key Moments

Revised Economic Data00:17
Lowkey Recession00:35
Constant Revisions00:51