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sex what essay were you writing last night till 3: in the morning oh I was blasting people on Twitter yesterday I
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was collecting scalps SC I keep these receipts of people who attack me on Ukraine and then like six
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months later you know they'll write a tweet admitting they were wrong I'll rub it in their face you have a little
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Google doc and you just go BK I just bookmark them you have like your Kill Bill list
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yeah you are so petty oh my God I love it I mean I love that about you some would say that's a good defense
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mechanism right this way yeah they got to know they're not going to take any free shots because if they do and then
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you know invariably I I'm proven correct then uh you're gonna clap back I'm gonna
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smack them very trumping isn't it yeah it's a very hard burden for you to carry just being right all the time I respect
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the way you do it with such Grace and magn let your ride Rainman David and in said we open sources to the
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fans and they've just gone [Music] crazy all right welcome back to the all in pod really excited to have a guest
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with us today Jared Kushner I'm sure everyone knows who he is we obviously talked about Jared's interview with Lex
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fredman on the Pod a couple of weeks ago and what happened chamat you DM Jared started chatting and said hey would you
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be interested in coming to talk with us yeah about these matters jar very you know kindly agreed to do it so we're
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really excited to uh have Jared join us today Jared welcome thank you for having
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me so I don't think you need much of an introduction obviously you were a senior
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adviser to uh president Trump from 2017 to 2021 and uh you worked on the US Mexico
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relationship as well as led the Middle East peace efforts which I think is going to make up the bulk of what we're
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excited to talk about today uh just really briefly since leaving um office you've been investing running a firm
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called Affinity Partners is that right um maybe you can share with us just a little bit about what you've been up to
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and then we'll you know kind of get into it here perfect Affinity Partners is a private Equity Firm that I started when
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we left doing growth investing private Equity investing globally we raised just over 3.1 billion uh doing a lot of
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Investments trying to uh bring Gulf money into Israel into the us trying to figure out how through uh Investments
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you could bring countries closer together people closer together uh looking at a lot of areas where there's
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uh structural transitions happening at large in the global economy whether it's near Shoring from offline to online uh
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you know software a lot of uh different interesting areas a lot in the the fintech space and financial services
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right now uh but you know enjoying it and the goal is really to bring the experience that we had from the
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previously being an investor and um then the time in government and then thinking
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through how you could use those macro learnings and connections and relationships uh and navigational skills
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to the investing side right so we're going to try and talk later in the show uh about macro markets a bit talk a
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little bit about some of the activity in AI this week we think it's all pretty pressant and hopefully we can all
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dialogue about that I think it'd be helpful when you and I talked just to get ready for the
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show today you mentioned that you had a very liberal upbringing in the Upper East Side New York and your perspective
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began to shift as you started to travel the country then you were in the Trump White House and have become very active
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since would love to hear a little bit about how your perspective shifted in the time you spent because you mentioned
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you started traveling the country and seeing things that you otherwise hadn't seen living in the Upper East Side would
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love to hear that part of your story before we kind of get into things if you wouldn't mind Sharon yeah sure so one
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thing about my life is that nothing has gone according to the plan I grew up in uh New Jersey uh really nice place in
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Livingston uh my father was an entrepreneur or in the real estate business banking Insurance did a lot of
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different things uh really brought up uh me and my siblings to be focused on business and it really for us was a uh
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good experience growing up uh obviously went to uh Harvard and then after that chose to go to uh law school and
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Business School uh where I was at NYU during that time my my father had a legal issue and I was forced to take
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over the business um and so I got into the real estate business and then after that uh bought a media company in New
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York and that's really where I got exposured to a lot of of what I would call New York Society um my wife and I
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uh we met got married and uh through that experience thought we had a very expanded worldview uh at our house in
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the upper side we' have dinner parties we'd have heads of Banks and hedge funds and technology companies and fashion and
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um and then it was just you know really nice life and then her father announced she was running for office and that was
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an interesting experience for us as Republican we didn't know too many Republicans um were you register
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Democrat prior uh I was registered Democrat going up uh my father was a big Democrat donor we were we'd have in our
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house whether it be you know Chuck Schumer Hillary Clinton I think my father gave uh Cory Booker his first
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campaign donation so I know Corey since I'm 15 years old uh so really grew up around Democrat politics uh all of our
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life but over time I I think during the Obama years I I changed my registration to an independent I didn't feel uh like
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the Democrat Party was fully representing my my viewpoint so I felt more independent minded and then um
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during the time with u my father-in-law when he was running uh for office uh he invited me to go with him to a rally in
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Springfield Illinois we flew out there I got off the plane and um you know we we
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pull up to an arena and the guy comes up to Trump and says uh congratulations sir
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you just broke the record for the arena for attendance uh and he says well well who had the who had the record before
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and he says well was Elton John 36 years earlier and he says Jared look I don't even have a guitar or a piano this is
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impressive you know so you know he gets up on stage and and um Without Really notes you know riffs for over an hour
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and it was interesting for me because I was watching you know CNN and the New York Times and all my friends the media
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basically were describing his rallies as almost like KKK conventions but I walked
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around the crowd nobody knew who I was then and what I saw was that these were just you know they were people were old
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young male female white minority and um and uh and it was just people who were hardworking Americans who who you know
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really felt like Trump was giving them a voice and what was interesting to me was
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a couple weeks earlier we'd been at uh the Rob Hood Foundation which is the big uh philanthropy in New York where a lot
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of the hedge fund managers uh support I remember the chairman of Robin Hood getting up and saying you know if we
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want to save uh you know the Next Generation we want to save uh the kids in the inner cities uh we have to uh we
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have to support Common Core that's the way that we can save people and I remember Trump gets up there and he says
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uh you know if we want to save education we have to end Common Core and send it to the states I'm saying wait I thought
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I thought commic Corp was this great thing and but why are all these people against it and so it really just kind of
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pequ my interest and made me realize that maybe my aperture was was way smaller um way more closed that than I
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thought it was and it really led me to to to seek out a lot of people who had differing points of view than the people
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I'd been around before I really opened my aperture explored a lot and over the years I really got the chance to meet
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with people from both sides so you know I have a lot of friends who are independent friends who are liberal
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friends who are very Republican and uh you know my personal view was I thought of myself more as a pragmatist
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fact-based and data driven and based on that I tried to pursue uh the different policies that I thought made the most
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sense uh in as unemotional a way as possible how did you figure out that that moment in Springfield could
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translate all throughout the country like was there a process that you guys went through to validate like hold on is
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this just a moment in time or is this just a specific area or what is how did you guys get to the ground truth of what
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the scalable marketable candidate look like because I'm sure that was part of the
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calculus in what you did because it I think the to your point maybe the media's perspective was hold on a second
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this this guy is riffing but it clearly went very quickly from riffing to a methodical plan and I don't think that
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that's ever really been talked about do you want to just tell us a little bit about that sure well I would say it was
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less planned and way more entrepreneurial and and I say entrepreneurial in in two different
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senses you know one is the campaign was one was run incredibly entrepreneurially
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people were told that if you work for Trump you'll never get a job in Washington again which is why he really
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wasn't able to hire a lot of people initially and why a lot of the responsibility for the campaign fell to
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people like myself who uh really just cared about him personally and wanted to make sure that he was able to do a
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competent job uh with the operations of a campaign that led to us doing a lot of
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things in an untraditional way but we actually were able to make the dollars go a lot further whether was building a
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data operation or how we targeted advertisers or how we um you know did our events we were able to just do it a
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much different way but from a viability of the candidate perspective I really give all the credit to him because what
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I saw with politicians is a lot of politicians will take polls and then moderate their perspectives uh this is
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somebody who without pollsters and without any political experience um really put forward a lot of points of
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view and and keep in mind in a Republican primary a lot of his viewpoints on trade were very
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heterodoxical they were they were not what was conventionally thought of and what I saw with Trump was that he was
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able to move the polls to him and that was a that was a talent and just a skill of persuasion uh and his willingness to
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kind of stick to the issues I mean at that point in time I remember seeing polls that illegal immigration was not
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like a top five issue when he started the campaign and by you know the middle the end of the campaign people were
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really seeing uh the craziness that was happening at the southern border and why
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that was uh critical to our national security and so um I think that for him he found a lot of his message and with
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him he was not a perfectly uh always on message candidate but what he did do was
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he was constantly evolving and learning and you know and would learn from the different things that happened and
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constantly evolving to uh find ways to to persist amazing like a startup finding a product Market fit yeah what's
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he like as a father-in-law I'm curious uh as a father-in-law he's been great you know that obviously brought us a lot
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closer together you know until that time our time was mostly either playing golf
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together or we'd be together at family events uh working together was uh was was a different element of our
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relationship but I think one of the benefits I had with him was that he knew I was always going to tell him the truth
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uh whether I agreed with him or not I also I think one of the things he liked about me was that I I was not obviously
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worked hard I gave him straight answers and I didn't aine on things where I didn't feel like I had an expertise so
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if you would ask me a question um and I didn't feel like I knew the answer I would say well this is not my expertise
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these are the people who I would recommend i' speak to to get perspective and let me bring you their their
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opinions and so I think he saw me as somebody who was who was competent obviously had his best interest at heart
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um again I wasn't accepting money for any of these jobs so it wasn't doing it for for financial gain um and I just
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started to really believe in a lot of the policies that he was pushing and wanted to help him maybe translate it
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from a a campaign speech to kind of technical policy and then see once he got the opportunity uh to help him
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implement it as well that's really cool why did you agree to do Lex and why are you doing the show today we were kind of
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surprised to see you on Lex and obviously like Le said it was a very different conversation than I think any
00:11:28
of us would have expected having the only exposure to you being through you know some sort of media channels what's
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motivating you to kind of do this today before we get into it so Lex um again him my wife are friends and I I I really
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follow and and listen to what he does I I think in society today the the news uh
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it's kind of just one person's you know point of view and and they're they're they're picking and choosing and and
00:11:53
editing what they put into it one way or the other but the medium of the podcast
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is something that uh I my personal consumption uh was growing with and and I felt like it was a place where you
00:12:03
could have real conversations I think the people who are listening to podcasts are people who are looking to have a
00:12:09
more nuanced uh perspective on something and and really want to you know try to understand something deeper and uh I
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respect Lex I all my private conversations with him I I really enjoyed um and I love that he was really
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trying to um find perspectives from people that maybe others didn't understand to try to bring greater
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understanding um across and so I agreed to do it after a while I was really really glad I did and uh based on the
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the great feedback I got uh there uh my sense is is that the podcast format is is something that's um you could have a
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real conversation you can go back and forth you could argue you could disagree um I think that that's where people
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really want to get their information from so I I turned down a lot of you know cable news or different uh
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interview requests um because I find that you can't have as nuanced a discussion and you know I wish things
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were as simple as you know the black and white are the political slogans that people use but the reality is things are
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a lot more nuanced so when shth reached out I followed you guys and I've listened to you for for some time I was
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um I was really happy to come do it awesome well thanks for doing it SX you want to kick us off on the Gaza conflict
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and framing up the present day sure based on what I've read it seems like Israel has now formed a perimeter around
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uh Gaza City they've sort of bisected Gaza between this North and uh South and they've been trying to bomb entry or
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exit points from the Hamas tunnel Network and it seems like their strategy is to kind of gradually close in on that
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tunnel Network and basically try and eliminate Hamas from from sort of this northern part of Gaza and then one
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assumes they'll move to the South and I guess one other element to add to it is that you know while Israel is doing that
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you're seeing protests both in the West and in the Arab or Muslim world you're starting to see statements condemning
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Israel by leaders of these other countries in the region I'd say the one by turkey by erdogan was notably harsh
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and threatening but you're starting to see again as Israel proceeds with this operation you're starting to see more
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and more condemnation from various parts of the International Community so let's
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start with that is you know how do you assess what's happening on the ground what do you think the prospects for
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Success are and how do you assess the risk that this sort of escalates horizontally in ways that are kind of
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hard to predict and could spiral out of control yeah so so there's a lot of different ways you can go with that but
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I'll start with kind of the first question which is um in the immediate aftermath of the attack my my biggest
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concern was that Israel was clearly caught off guard from an intelligence and Military perspective with the attack
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and the attacks were they shook a lot of people they were they were very very heinous Beyond
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um really comprehension it's it's crazy the more and more stuff that comes out and we were seeing a lot of it in real
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time thanks to you know the fact that right now with X and what what elon's done there to uh to not try to censor
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things in the way that it was happening before so we were all getting a lot of information real time and it was really
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pulling in a lot of people's heartstrings my big fear initially was that Israel would react uh emotionally
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as opposed to uh to to pragmatically and I think that uh the steps that they taken since then have been uh very wise
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I think the fact that they took their time and have been very methodical about getting their supply uh lines ready
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about working how to Garner as much international support I mean you have to remember these weren't just Israeli
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citizens that were killed these were American citizens they were German citizens they were Thai citizens uh they
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were UK citizens and and the hostages as well are not just Israeli citizens so I
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think that Israel took its time to get the military operation set I've seen them go slowly methodically I mean Gaza
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is a very very complicated place I mean we studied it for four years we we we we
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were very closely watching all the different incursions and we managed toas and and their uh their malicious
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activities uh very very closely uh to avoid situations like this and uh the place is booby trapped like like crazy
00:16:14
and so I do think the fact that the Israelis have taken their time and been very methodical and have come up with a
00:16:20
strategy has given me more hope mean every morning I I wake up and I look to see you know praying there hasn't been
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more casualties um in Israel and and the hope is that they continue to do it in the best way possible um so I think that
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the goal for them is really the elimination of Hamas I think that um you know the the big point that I really
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want to make in the Lex podcast which is why I went back uh to to really do the point was that um the people who are
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protesting um in favor of the Palestinians a lot of the Israelis and Palestinians want the same thing which
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is uh they want security for Israel and a better life for the Palestinians and I
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think what people have failed to really grasp um for for a long time is that Hamas has been the root cause of a lot
00:17:01
of the the the bad lives for the Palestinians if you think about Gaza uh before this recent before October 7th I
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mean over half the population lived under the poverty line um you know people were were really trapped there
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and people would blame Israel for the blockade but what's also happened over the last 30 days is a lot of the worst
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fears that we had during the administration or things that Israel would be saying have totally been proven
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true I mean you've seen now them going to some of these School houses where there's you know there's 500 or or 50
00:17:29
different you know rocket launchers um you know in the school houses the hospitals all the terrorists that
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they've captured that they're interrogating are saying well that's where the military headquarters are you
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know now we're learning about this um this tunnel Network which they're saying is hundreds of miles of of tunnels
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underground well that's why you know Israel wasn't allowing cement and a lot of these these materials in the cement
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that went in which was supposed to build houses for for the people of Gaza was then stolen by Hamas to to build these
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tunnels the uh the pipes that went into to fix the water were then taken and turned into to Rockets the the fuel was
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was was stolen and and not used for for for the hospitals or for people to have better lives it was stolen for them to
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operate their tunnel Network and then to fuel the Rockets so um It's a situation
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that that really does have to be dealt with again Israel you guys are I know poker players so uh so Israel definitely
00:18:18
has the stronger you know hand to play here so I think time is on the one hand in their in their favor uh but on the
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other hand obviously you know the International Community has hisor Al been very uh anti-israel and
00:18:30
anti-semitic in the way that they've approached a lot of these uh these skirmishes uh to date but I will say I
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think there's been more International support for Israel this time than I've ever seen um and I do think that that's
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a very important thing so that that's maybe General if there were some of the specific questions that you want to get
00:18:46
to in there I can what about the risk of horizontal escalation let's just talk about that for a second because you do
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hear I think a growing chorus of countries who are denouncing Israel they're saying that that this is
00:18:58
collective punishment that the bombing of Gaza is indiscriminate they want it to stop there's genocide genocide yeah
00:19:06
I'm not saying I agree with that rhetoric but you you do hear it you know there's a effort at the UN to um to pass
00:19:13
the ceasefire resolution so there's a lot of people who want the ceasefire and there's a lot of inter growing
00:19:19
International pressure for that and then you've heard threats from you know again
00:19:23
erdogan and turkey that if there's not a ceasefire at some point they're going to
00:19:26
have to get involved they're going to have to act has said similar kinds of things
00:19:31
although I think it's pretty clear they don't want to get involved they don't want this to escalate in a into a wider
00:19:35
Regional War but they've sort of intimated that if the bombing continues that they might have to take action they
00:19:42
might feel pressure to do that so I guess one question there is is time on Israel's side it does seem
00:19:49
like again there's more pressure to stop the military operation over time as opposed to less yeah so so the
00:19:57
answer is everyone's talking their book and that's what they should be doing they're talking to their populations the
00:20:03
question is what people will actually do I would say that you know the hardest thing for us all is obviously you see
00:20:07
civilians in Gaza who are being used as human Shields and the last thing that anyone wants is for more civilian deaths
00:20:13
to occur uh it's funny this morning I was speaking to a friend uh in Israel who was telling me that yesterday there
00:20:19
was a a major evacuation of of uh civilians in Gaza and uh a lot of people are surprised that the Israeli Defense
00:20:26
Forces were basic putting themselves in between the Hamas militants and the gazen civilians to protect them and open
00:20:33
up a corridor and again one thing that Israel's done I think a good job of is getting out a lot of the facts about how
00:20:39
uh they've been warning the gazen civilians to flee asking them to go and U and what happened was Hamas was you
00:20:44
know shooting them down with snipers and trying to prevent them from going because they wanted them to stay in
00:20:49
place as human shields uh in in the schools and the hospitals where they were conducting their Terror activities
00:20:54
and so what was interesting to me was um when my friend was telling me is speaking to a friend of his who was a
00:21:00
soldier was that uh was that um is that a lot of the civilians are really thanking them for liberating them from
00:21:06
from Hamas and for risking their lives to help them uh get out of Gaza and a lot of these people again they've been
00:21:11
prisoners to Hamas more than anything else for a long time and they want to see themselves you know out of there so
00:21:17
that they can you know perhaps have a better opportunity to live a better life and so um so I think that the current
00:21:24
region I think the biggest immediate threat is is from Hezbollah the north I think that's been um I think Israel
00:21:30
going to full ready alert uh was a really smart thing I think the us moving uh the battle carriers there I think was
00:21:36
also good I think the uh the statements from uh from the US administration were strong upfront again whether people uh
00:21:43
believe that they'll they'll they'll back up those statements is is another thing because they do have a little bit
00:21:47
of a credibility deficit in the region based on what they've done over the last couple of years um but I think that's
00:21:53
all been very helpful in kind of pushing um pushing Iran back and and and and sending a strong message to
00:22:00
Hezbollah which is if you want to attack Israel don't do it when they're at full
00:22:03
military Readiness Israel's a nuclear power and I think everyone is starting to realize that this has been Iran
00:22:09
trying to manipulate things and as long as they think there's a threat that you're not going to go after one of
00:22:14
their proxies but you may go after them that's been the best way of keeping uh deescalation I think with turkey and
00:22:19
others I I've spent you know many hours with erdan uh personally talking about Gaza and I know that you know he has a
00:22:25
big heart for the Palestinian people he hates uh to see their suffering and it's
00:22:29
also good politics from him you know he's also from a Muslim Brotherhood uh you know leading party uh but I think
00:22:36
you know in his heart of heart he does have to acknowledge that a lot of their plight is is is led to by bad governance
00:22:41
um he may not want to admit it publicly but the reality is is the best way to improve the lives of the people of Gaza
00:22:47
is to eliminate Hamas and put in place a structure where people can finally have
00:22:52
the opportunity to to live uh more freely and and and make better lives for themselves Jared you you said something
00:22:58
that I think is really interesting you said erdogan has a soft spot for the Palestinians can I just take that
00:23:02
concept and just can you explain the historical context of Arabs the Arab world and their relationship with the
00:23:10
Palestinians sort of because it's definitely had its es and flows over the Arc of history and so how do people
00:23:17
think about it as just broadly speaking just in terms of like the big historical
00:23:22
arcs that have kind of shaped this relationship between Arabs and and Palestinians specifically well a that's
00:23:28
a question we could spend about three days talking about but I'll try to give you kind of a very quick uh version of
00:23:33
it so I think that you know a lot of this goes back really to uh people say it goes back to a lot of times but I I
00:23:40
think that the the we have to probably go back to and I'll try to do this very quick is is really in 1948 which was a
00:23:46
complicated time it's post Holocaust post World War II um you know again the Middle East really in the early 1900s
00:23:53
was a lot of was created by a lot of arbitrary lines drawn by foreigners and you had a situation where Israel uh is
00:24:00
is the UN puts forth the partition plan Israel uh they're willing to recognize Israel as a state for the Jewish
00:24:07
people and also give a state to the Palestinians uh the Arabs reject that and attack Israel and there's a whole
00:24:12
War during that war um it was flared up really by uh General Nasser from Egypt who at the time was the leader of the
00:24:18
Muslim world uh during that war um Israel was able to defy the odds and win and a lot of Palestinians were either
00:24:25
forced from their homes or displac from their homes you know there's there's versions where they say the Arabs said
00:24:29
leave your homes and then um you know when the war is over you're going to come back and take take everything uh
00:24:34
some Arabs uh stayed in their homes and actually today they're Israeli citizens with full you know equal rights as as
00:24:39
other Israelis um and so so that happened um then in 1967 uh that's when Egypt attacked again and during that war
00:24:47
again Israel miraculously won and um and that was really kind of the the time where um Israel was able to expand their
00:24:55
territory they took over the West Bank at the time which wasn't didn't belong to the Palestinians as much as it
00:25:00
belonged to Jordan it was part of trans Jordan at the time and then they also gained control of the Gaza Strip which
00:25:05
also uh was previously uh administered by Egypt although when Egypt was administering it they didn't take it as
00:25:11
their territory they never granted citizenship to the people who were there so between 1948 and 1967 when The Six
00:25:18
Day War occurred um most of the leaders in the Arab world enjoyed uh leaving this issue out it was a great way to
00:25:24
stoke nationalism and to uh it was a very easy political issue for them to have to say well we need to do this and
00:25:30
you know to to to fight for the Palestinian people so in a lot of ways there was a way to deflect from their
00:25:34
shortcomings at home and to justify certain actions they were taking because they were fighting for this uh this
00:25:40
group of people then it gets really interesting after The Six Day War so this was the second time that the Arab
00:25:46
countries had failed to to destroy Israel which is what they had promised they would do so there's a young
00:25:52
terrorist at the time named yaser Arafat and he was part of a party called fata and what he said is you know what all
00:25:58
these Arab leaders they're lying to you they're failing you uh I'm going to be the one to start creating a Liberation
00:26:03
and opportunity for the Palestinian people so he took on this mantle uh was able to use his fat group and and some
00:26:09
pretty uh thuery ways to take over the Palestinian Liberation Organization which is way that he got some
00:26:14
International claim and at the time he was doing that from Jordan so this about 1968 1969 uh they caus so much trouble
00:26:21
in Jordan uh that uh King Hussein at the time who's King abdullah's father who really was a very very uh special um
00:26:29
Diplomat and leader in the Middle East got so fed up with with arod I mean at the time he was causing trouble they it
00:26:35
was it was steering people away people wouldn't invest there uh they wouldn't it was it was hurting tourism and then
00:26:40
they took a little further and they tried to assassinate him which was probably the final straw so the
00:26:45
Jordanian leader said get these people the hell out of my country um it was a big clash between the PLO um uh and and
00:26:53
fata uh terrorists and then the Jordanian police and military and they were able to expel them and then the
00:26:59
Palestinians went to Lebanon uh that's where yasar AR front was so they were there for about 12 years again they went
00:27:04
back to their old ways of of of fermenting uh radicalism and finding ways to to cause trouble uh when Israel
00:27:12
uh invaded Lebanon in 1982 uh then yaser arat fled again uh this time to Tunisia
00:27:18
um in Tunisia they were living pretty well as a beachfront place they're in these beautiful Villas on the beach and
00:27:23
they kind of became a little bit disconnected uh from the Palestinian people but there was a lot of resentment
00:27:29
uh of the broader uh Arab world because they felt like again the Arab world didn't really they would say they were
00:27:34
for the Palestinian people but never really stood up for them in the way that they felt like they deserved so it was
00:27:41
it took until about 1988 that finally uh This is 40 years after 1948 the war of independence where uh the pl was finally
00:27:49
able to get the Arab League to say and this is really because Jordan was just like done with this issue to say okay
00:27:55
we're going to acknowledge that this land here should become a Palestinian state so the notion of a Palestinian
00:27:59
State really didn't emerge till about uh 1987 1988 which is the same time that Hamas actually you know came about and
00:28:07
they came about really from they were an a Sho of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood
00:28:11
um and their whole thing was basically we're g to uh do full terrorism in order to uh prevent uh prevent any compromise
00:28:18
or any deals with Israel so then you go to 1991 which is a very very important uh time for the Palestinians mostly
00:28:25
because uh Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Kuwait um and that was very scary for a lot of the Arab leaders right they
00:28:32
didn't want they did fear Saddam he was a he was seen as the radical Arafat uh and the Palestinian leadership back
00:28:39
Saddam Hussein mostly because they knew that he was seen as the Revolutionary and popular with the more common man um
00:28:45
and this pissed off every single Gulf leader because they basically said wait this guy if he's going to take over
00:28:50
Kuwait he could come for Saudi Arabia he'd come for UAE so they were all very against that and at the time there's
00:28:55
about over 200,000 Palestinians in Kuwait what happened at that time though was that that made the Palestinian
00:29:01
leadership so weak because a lot of the Arab countries cut off the funding it was just done with them and that's
00:29:06
really what led to the oso Accords so the oso Accords happened not because our fought necessarily you know all of a
00:29:12
sudden said after you know 37 or 27 years of trying you know Terror and and pushing forward uh he basically ran out
00:29:19
of other options and this was his only way to get some form of legitimacy so they dropped from their Charter uh the
00:29:24
whole notion of destroying Israel and said let's try to create this area we could have governance and try this whole
00:29:30
effort for a Palestinian state so that's really kind of this a a long short version of kind of how we got to then
00:29:36
and then in the last I'd say 30 years the big change that I would say between then and today is that you have a lot
00:29:43
you have a new Middle East form again a lot of the work we did in the Trump Administration was really to help what
00:29:49
I'd call the new Middle East emerge where you have a lot of economic opportunities now happening in Saudi
00:29:54
Arabia UAE Qatar uh there's been a massive mind shift where if you go kind of post Arab Spring a lot of these
00:30:01
leaders are saying uh you know how do we create opportunity for our people when I
00:30:05
got into my job in 2017 all the experts were saying to me the big divide in the Middle East is between the suis the the
00:30:12
sunnis and the Shia and when I got there I said no no no the Divide is between leaders who want to give opportunity uh
00:30:18
and betterment of life to their people and people who want to use religion or um or or whatever issue they want to
00:30:24
hold on to from the past in order to deflect from their shortcomings and justify bad leadership so um so I think
00:30:30
what's happened today is you have a lot of the gulf countries really wanting to see this issue uh get resolved which is
00:30:36
different than you had in in Camp David in in in 2000 when Bill Clinton was uh getting close to a deal with yaser
00:30:41
Arafat I think the Saudis and others at the time didn't want this issue to go away but now the issue is really no
00:30:47
longer useful for the Arabs the only people it's useful to quite frankly is Iran and that's why they've been backing
00:30:52
Hamas and Hezbollah and all these other fun factions in order to continue their project of instability so uh the way I
00:30:59
kind of view this period right now is that the Middle East today is way stronger U than it's been in the past
00:31:05
and this is what I would say the last gasp of Iran and those who have you know pushed for destabilization and kind of
00:31:11
this whole um you know islamist jihadist project at the expense of kind of a collaborative uh Middle East which had
00:31:18
which would then will create a lot of opportunity uh for the Next Generation to to Really Thrive Jared isn't there
00:31:25
like at this point then like is it hard or easy to create an objective Target we we call individuals
00:31:34
that Israel wants to Target Hamas but there's no card carrying members of Hamas you don't wear a jacket that says
00:31:41
I'm a member of Hamas and walk around with an ID card and there are some folks who are
00:31:46
sympathetic who believe that Hamas represents a resistance movement there are some folks who obviously
00:31:53
feel terrorized uh and ruled over and there are some folks who support the cause but don't pull the trigger there
00:32:03
are some folks who pull the trigger but don't want to support the cause but are being forced to by some uh reports how
00:32:10
easy and how hard is it to really direct a military operation at such a fluid population that there it's very hard to
00:32:19
ID and Target and as we've seen in years past there's always another group that seems to emerge you cut off one group
00:32:29
you get rid of al-Qaeda Isis emerges and there's this almost like you know fluid
00:32:36
transition of uh of this intention and particularly in this Gaza Community it's very difficult perhaps to distinguish
00:32:43
between who's Hamas and who's not Hamas so how do you actually achieve the objective there and you know how does
00:32:49
the military Target yeah so so that's probably the most important question that I think
00:32:55
people have to um really be thinking about as we kind of enter this phase right so uh it's both how do you do this
00:33:03
in the short term and then the long term and so you can't kill your way out of an
00:33:07
ideology but there obviously are some bad leaders at the top who are culpable who um who who are military targets and
00:33:13
I imagine that it's really you know knowing the capabilities of Israel and the mad it's just a matter of you know
00:33:18
when and how as opposed to anything else but then you have a lot of mid-level and
00:33:22
and and younger members of this group and I do think that a lot of these people are in this situation more
00:33:28
circumstantially I think this is what they've been taught to believe I think this is uh really the place they were
00:33:32
and this was the the system in Gaza where if you wanted to advance and live a better life then you really had to
00:33:37
succumb to this tiered system so how deep the ideology is um people will debate that in different ways if you go
00:33:44
back to 2016 in the campaign when we were dealing with Isis uh the talking point that everyone used was you have to
00:33:51
defeat the territorial calate of Isis and then you have to win the long-term battle against extremism uh one of the
00:33:56
things that president Trump did when he went to Saudi Arabia in 2017 uh the reason we went there was
00:34:01
that the Middle East was basically on fire I mean if you had Isis had a califate the size of Ohio they were
00:34:06
ruling over eight million people they were beheading uh journalists and and killing Christians uh Syria was in a
00:34:12
civil war where 500,000 uh people were killed a lot of Muslims and you didn't see the same
00:34:16
protest on college campuses when that was happening as uh you know Assad was gassing his own people uh Libya was
00:34:22
destabilized Yemen was destabilized and Iran was on a Glide path to nuclear weapon having just been given $150
00:34:29
billion in cash through the uh disastrous jcpoa uh deal that uh that car and Obama negotiated so it was a
00:34:36
mess and so Trump went there and um and basically was was pretty tough with what
00:34:41
he said and he said this isn't our problem this isn't your problem to solve our problem and we need to to root this
00:34:46
ideology get it out of your your homes get it out of your mosques get it out of this Earth and uh the king of Saudi
00:34:52
Arabia stood up at the time and said there's no glory in death and that was really important uh two two of the big
00:34:57
uh deals that came out of that people talk about the big uh Investments did over $500 billion of Investments uh in
00:35:03
arm sales with Saudi Arabia that created a lot of us jobs uh but the two agreements we made that didn't get a lot
00:35:08
of coverage during that time was that we did a counter tariff Finance Center that
00:35:12
we set up where we got all the gulf countries to really allow treasury to work closely with their Banks to stop a
00:35:17
lot of the funding to the terrorist organizations and then these kind of borderline organizations and the second
00:35:22
one was in Saudi Arabia which is the custodian of the two holy sites in in Islam meca Medina um they started a
00:35:28
counter extremism Center where basically they were uh combating online um radicalization that was occurring and if
00:35:35
you remember in the US in 2016 we had the San bernido shooting we had the Pulse Nightclub shooting and a lot of
00:35:41
people being radicalized online uh one of the things that I'm very proud of from the Trump Administration is the
00:35:47
work that we did uh to really help Saudi Arabia change their trajectory and what
00:35:51
I realized quickly was that in the US we just did not have the capabilities to win the long-term ideological battle
00:35:56
ourselves so um we could be mad at you know Saudi for some of the things that they've done in the past but they were
00:36:02
the the most powerful partner we could have in order to uh try to uh combat the radicalization that was occurring both
00:36:09
in terms of stopping the funding but also uh you know replacing the clerics who were doing the radicalization with
00:36:14
clerics who were uh restoring Islam to a more peaceful and and more proper uh place so uh that was something that
00:36:21
that's really occurred it's made a big difference I was just in Saudi Arabia a couple weeks ago at their big investment
00:36:25
conference uh and what was really exciting to me was I was meeting with a lot of the younger Saudi entrepreneurs
00:36:31
and I did a a conference in Bahrain to talk about the Palestinians uh in 2019 and one of the big challenges we had
00:36:38
when we were putting that together is we were thinking about who are the role models for these young Palestinian kids
00:36:43
and in the in the Muslim world you know they had some sports stars they had some
00:36:47
Business Leaders uh but it wasn't really uh people who were necessarily um relatable to a lot of the younger
00:36:53
generation in Saudi I was at an event with all these young Tech entrepreneur there who are building uh amazing
00:36:58
companies there's a lot of unicorns there uh they're doing a lot of the you know the the companies that are dominant
00:37:03
in the US and in Asia and now they're building them for the Middle East there and it's very very exciting and these
00:37:08
really are the next generation of role models for a lot of these kids so U that's a long way of saying that you
00:37:14
know obviously you have to do what you have to do from a military perspective and and the Hope obviously is that uh it
00:37:19
can be as quick as possible and that as few civilians as possible uh are are are
00:37:23
hurt by this um but the notion is that once that's once that's completed you need to then create a framework where
00:37:30
people don't just have more despair uh because in an area where there's no hope and opportunity then obviously the
00:37:36
radicalists and the jihadists that's really where they do their best recruiting and they flourish so uh so so
00:37:41
once this occurs there needs to be a paradigm created where the next generation feels like it's better for
00:37:46
them to get a job be part of the economy uh and where they can live a better life
00:37:50
through capitalism uh than by going to to these jihadist groups but it's leadership targeting right now that's
00:37:56
the objective effectively I mean that's what I'm hearing leadership and then degrading of
00:38:02
capabilities right so because again what you've seen as well you've seen this with cartels in in in uh in South
00:38:06
America and you've seen this with Terror organizations you know you you kill the
00:38:10
top guy and and sometimes you cut the head off the snake and the snake dies and sometimes it just you know it
00:38:14
scatters into a lot of little pieces and then you end up it ends up becoming more
00:38:17
complicated not less but I think here obviously leadership but but significantly degrading uh the
00:38:23
capabilities for anything in Gaza to uh to to threaten Israel and then actively Build A Better Way actively build a
00:38:32
better solution that's the only way and by the way even today it's it's much more easy to visualize that than it was
00:38:37
in 2019 when I was talking about this because you're seeing the economic project in Saudi Arabia you're seeing
00:38:42
what they're doing in UAE I mean that the fact that Saudi shifted so much in five years should give you hope that
00:38:47
it's really really possible and they've been pushing the rest of the countries to try to emulate and and compete with
00:38:52
them which is also an amazing thing I'd love to get your reaction to to the difference in tone and messaging from
00:38:59
Western governments versus what you're seeing sometimes on the ground with some of these protests and just how almost
00:39:06
diametrically opposed the language and the rhetoric and the point of view is how is it that and sort of this is why I
00:39:13
kind of asked you just for a little bit of a a history how is it that people aren't taking all of these views in how
00:39:20
is it that there is this radicalization that may not be happening in the same level in the Middle East but is maybe
00:39:28
happening actually in the west whether it's in our universities or other ones yeah so that's something like
00:39:35
my friends in the Middle East a lot of them are laughing at the West because they're basically saying you know we we
00:39:40
got all these islamist radical Muslim Brother people the hell out of our countries you don't see the same
00:39:44
protests uh in those places that you see in the west and um and I think that in in in the west what's occurred is is
00:39:52
people I saw this a lot when I dealt with the Europeans where people's understanding of the issue uh is more
00:39:57
with their heart than it is with their head and obviously nobody wants to see any suffering um of any human beings but
00:40:03
the reality is is that you know the the solutions that they've proposed for the last 75 years have all been uh just
00:40:09
nonsensical and they they've more often than not perpetuated the problem then they've been solutions to the problem
00:40:14
and you know I faced tons of criticism when I was you know in my role working on this issue and mostly because I I
00:40:20
kind of looked at all the things that have been done in the past and keep mind being asked to to work on you know the
00:40:25
Middle East it's like it's almost like a joke right it's it's the hardest problem
00:40:28
set you can get in the world and I think we almost made it look too easy getting
00:40:32
the results that we did and we left it very quiet and uh I think now people are starting to appreciate that it wasn't
00:40:38
that easy and it's not um it's not a simple problem set to deal with and uh but I think that a lot of people um were
00:40:46
were were kind of looking at um at what they thought was wrong but looking at the wrong root causes for how it got
00:40:55
there I have a question for you and saxs I'd love to get your guys' opinion on this India dealt with a terrorist attack
00:41:03
when M Mahan Singh was prime minister and basically it was an extremist Muslim group from Pakistan lakari TBA that came
00:41:10
in and killed a lot of Indians but a lot of foreigners as well right attacked some of the major hotels in Bombay Etc
00:41:17
and what happened was manahan sing didn't do anything and in hindsight what was written is you know they debated to
00:41:26
do they debated do we go after this group do we show some proactive demonstration of force do
00:41:35
we invade Pakistan ultimately they went on a more covert path to sort of dismantle that Terror Network and there
00:41:42
was just a lot of international support that came around it can we steal man whether it would
00:41:48
have been possible for Netanyahu to take that path or was it really not even reasonable just curious what you guys
00:41:57
think about that do you want to go first uh no you should go first jar okay so um look anything's possible uh chth
00:42:09
and I think that there's different ways look I think the big fears initially were that going into Gaza number one
00:42:15
you'd be walking into a big trap and number two is you would be inviting a major escalation in the region the the
00:42:20
third fear was obviously the degration of the Israeli economy when we did uh the Abraham Accord one of the big uh
00:42:28
attractive uh things to a lot of these countries to be partners with Israel was their massively robust economy and what
00:42:34
could happen if they go to war and it's a prolonged war is that economy can go off track I think GDP will take a big
00:42:39
hit there in Q4 but obviously you know in Israel they do have a history of coming back right away but if this is a
00:42:44
prolonged uh war effort uh there could be big hits and then you also think about in the age of you know Ai and
00:42:49
software development losing you know a day of productivity is the equivalent of losing you know a week or a month and uh
00:42:55
and they don't want to fall behind in what they're doing so there is an argument to be made for doing that but I
00:43:00
do think that from Israel's perspective um I do think that they understand this threat I think that they
00:43:06
want to eliminate this threat and I think their view is is uh we can't live like this anymore uh we we
00:43:12
underestimated it before uh and and we will not let that happen again and I think also the psychology of of really
00:43:18
the Jewish people is you know it's funny Once I was sitting with h with prime minister Netanyahu and one of the
00:43:23
generals and uh and BB was basically saying like you know if if Iran gets too close this is what I'm going to do we're
00:43:29
going to have to take matters to hands and the general basically said to me he said you know I get it you know you guys
00:43:33
aren't going back to the ovens and I was just like wow you know it was it was a real acknowledgement of like the way
00:43:38
that Israel operates with kind of no margin for error and I would always say when I would negotiate with the Israelis
00:43:43
that you know sometimes you do a contract and there's like you know there's there's two issues at R 10 and
00:43:47
like a couple issues at r five and like a whole bunch you know whole bag of issues that are like twos and threes and
00:43:52
when I would negotiate with the Israelis like they would treat every issue like it was like a 10 you know what I mean in
00:43:57
the sense that like they they just operate like there's no margin for error um and uh and I do think that obviously
00:44:03
there was some complacency and and and the internal division you know led to them being caught off guard here but I
00:44:08
think that uh they're going to do what they're going to do to make sure this this happens and I think there's also a
00:44:13
way where Israel feels mentally like we have to show that we're strong or else people will will go after us and I think
00:44:19
that that's what they've done and I will say you know the fact that Israel's gone
00:44:22
from being completely divided to now uh fully United in this effort I mean even the people on the far left um in Israel
00:44:29
who were all peace who were you know funding you know jobs with Palestinians and you know housing them in their homes
00:44:34
I mean they're basically saying they want to go to war so the mentality there is very much we need to do what we need
00:44:39
to do now to keep ourselves safe people are very very heartbroken for those who are who are passed they're they're
00:44:45
they're praying very closely for the hostages um and uh but they've given a lot of latitude to their government to
00:44:50
do what it needs to do to make sure this this is this is not U this does not occur again and I will say to like
00:44:56
Israel also recognizes that I think now they have the world more on their side than they have in in uh in past
00:45:03
conflicts and and I think their view is to um their view is to to to do it while
00:45:08
they have that situation saak what do you think could Netanyahu have taken the the path of doing nothing no I don't
00:45:16
think so I mean not given his domestic political situation I think the Israeli people demand a response and look one of
00:45:26
the arguments that Israel would make is that if this happened to you the United States or you Russia or you China what
00:45:33
would you do I mean I think we know we would turn Gaza into fuah or mosul Russia would turn it into gry so I think
00:45:42
Israel is taking the response that I think most countries would take given their situation the thing I worry about
00:45:51
is that Israel is not the United States I mean the United States because it's so
00:45:55
powerful can act largely with impunity we don't have to worry as much about blowback and Israel does because at the
00:46:01
end of the day they're a small country and a very hostile region and so I do worry about the potential for unintended
00:46:07
consequences here one potential consequence is hor horizontal escalation does this war somehow spin out of
00:46:13
control and it could lead to a much wider Regional war that would not be in Israel's interest the other is
00:46:19
diplomatic isolation because I do think that Israel is taking a big hit right now in the information War the war of a
00:46:23
public opinion and then finally do have a lot of Civilian casualties and and those civilians have brothers and
00:46:29
sisters and cousins and so forth and that's going to lead to the next generation of terrorists and so even
00:46:35
success in this operation against Hamas doesn't solve the long-term problem I mean it just kind of keeps it going so I
00:46:42
think all of those things are potential problems but at the end of the day if Israel can have a successful military
00:46:51
operation here that significantly degrades or destroys Hamas without this thing spiraling out of
00:46:58
control that buys them time to find a political solution then maybe it will be worthwhile I mean I think a lot depends
00:47:05
here on what the outcome ultimately is I think it's like a very tough thing to judge without knowing what the outcome
00:47:10
is going to be the King of Jordan a couple of weeks ago gave a speech and uh in the
00:47:17
speech he said there is no peace possible in the Middle East without the emergence of a Palestinian state with a
00:47:24
two-state solution being the only path forward a Palestinian independent and sovereign state should be on June 4th
00:47:30
1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital and so that the cycles of killing whose ultimate victims are
00:47:37
innocent civilians end is this the only path to stabilization Jared and is that where
00:47:48
we're headed so that statement is is the same throwaway statement right that's the safest statement for anyone to say
00:47:54
because that became the internet ational consensus so you know one thing that was
00:47:58
super interesting to me when I was working on this was um I kind of said to my team once I was like where does the
00:48:03
Palestinian claim for East Jerusalem as the capital come from and I had a guy on
00:48:07
my team who is a a military guy who actually worked for John krey and I'd always have him in the room because he
00:48:12
would represent the Palestinian perspective um we had a bunch of Orthodox Jews and and you know we tried
00:48:16
to be impartial but you know we we did the best we could to have you know all perspectives represented and um and he
00:48:23
came said I actually don't know then what's interesting is you know when when the West Bank was actually uh governed
00:48:31
by Jordan the capital at the time was Aman and so it really wasn't until the uh the 1988 um uh launch of of this
00:48:40
right for Palestinian state that they self declar that the capital should be East Jerusalem and so that was actually
00:48:45
an interesting notion as well and I think that you know everyone knows that that's not going to be the case and I
00:48:49
asked one of the leaders once why they say that and they said well it's a cliche and I said well maybe we need a
00:48:54
new cliche and he says yeah that's that's a good idea let's come up with a nu cliche so I think whatever solution
00:48:59
is going to occur has to be pragmatic right you you the reality is is that if if we're going to learn from Gaza
00:49:06
there's a couple of lessons to learn right number one is you know Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 or 2006 uh
00:49:13
they forcibly removed 50,000 Israeli settlers uh from Gaza um all those people they they left their their homes
00:49:20
they left their businesses um thinking that would be peace they they transferred governance of Gaza to the
00:49:26
Palestinians the Palestinians then had an election again it was uh you know the the PA at the time convinced the Bush
00:49:32
Administration to allow for Hamas even though their Charter called for the destruction of Israel to participate in
00:49:38
the election and they won in a democratic election since that time there's been no improvement in the
00:49:43
economy uh it's become a a real security risk for Israel and so Israel withdrew and then let them govern themselves and
00:49:50
now you have what's happened today be the case so I think the reality is is that you know if you look at the
00:49:57
Historical um maps and the historical lines I mean there there's really no uh making a claim there there's no uh other
00:50:05
example in history where somebody's lost three offensive Wars and then has been able to maintain their claim over a
00:50:10
territory uh that they had before but I do think that there is an international consensus and I do even think in Israel
00:50:17
there's a consensus to give the Palestinian people the ability to kind of uh have their own land and then also
00:50:23
to govern themselves so um the word state is is a very loaded term because it it comes with a lot of definitions to
00:50:29
different people but I think the constructs of what's achievable is um is in the West Bank or Gaza uh there can be
00:50:36
no security threat to Israel and this is something that that they were insisting
00:50:40
on before and I was sympathetic uh this was even before October 7th and if you go back and look at the work we did and
00:50:45
what we put out we had a security regime that we designed with uh us intelligence
00:50:49
and Military and and Israeli intelligence and Israeli military uh that we thought actually gave a lot of
00:50:54
autonomy from police force perspective to the Palestinians allowed them to build their capabilities and and they
00:51:00
kind of like earned their way into more and more security control which I thought was the right way to do that
00:51:04
because you don't want to take a ton of risk there the other part of it though in any state is you need a functioning
00:51:10
economy otherwise obviously you have a big grievance party the biggest problem the Palestinians have faced over the
00:51:16
last called 25 years since since Oslo I guess almost 30 years now since Oslo is uh is just bad governance so the problem
00:51:23
with the PA is is they were elected I think in 2005 and uh they haven't another election since so I think
00:51:29
president boss is in the 16th 17th 18th year of like a four-year term um very not popular he's more popular in
00:51:36
Washington and in you know the United Nations than he is you know in his own country um he's uh there it's a very
00:51:42
corrupt system again a lot of the money's gone for uh for for the leadership their family for the top
00:51:47
people but not to the it hasn't trickled down to the people and so there there's
00:51:51
not a lot of trust on it uh you know I held a conference in Bahrain where I brought all the top inv ERS in the
00:51:55
Middle East I brought Steve schwarzman from Blackstone came we had Randle Stevenson came from from AT&T and
00:52:02
everyone came and said you know what we actually would love to help the Palestinian people we'd love to invest
00:52:07
here uh and then they looked at the magnitude of it I mean it's three million people which is like a small
00:52:11
state in the West Bank and two million in Gaza again it's like a small state in the US um and obviously to build things
00:52:16
it's much cheaper I mean the GDP per capita there is about 3,000 per person so uh you know it's it's it's cheaper
00:52:22
labor it's it's it's do it and it's connected right to Israel right which is like you know California not being
00:52:27
connected to Silicon Valley so the prospects for Prosperity spillover are are massive uh being sandwiched between
00:52:33
the rich Gulf and the the growing Israel so but the thing that's missing in for the Palestinians is very basic things
00:52:40
right there's no fair Judiciary there's no rule of law the governance is terrible the institutions are incredibly
00:52:46
opaque and what all these people were saying is we'd love to invest here but it's just not an investable place and so
00:52:52
the thing that's been holding back the Palestinian people has not been Israel it's been their bad leadership and again
00:52:57
you're seeing in other places in the Middle East that with the proper leadership Investments can come and
00:53:02
those investments will actually lead to people living a much better life how does that leadership change in your view
00:53:08
so the way that I would think about this is that if you're waiting for a solution
00:53:12
to come to you you're not going to find it right if you say okay let's go back to the UN well they have a perfect track
00:53:18
record of failure let's go back to the PA well they have a perfect track record of failure you're definitely not going
00:53:22
to go back to a MOS so you need to find something different so I think you either need to create something new or
00:53:28
you need to um look at what's working and put it together so some places that could do it mean the World Bank has a
00:53:34
lot of good uh institutional knowledge they helped us work on the plan the World Bank and the IMF um you know some
00:53:39
of the other Regional governments I mean Jordan their government is is pretty pretty capable I mean they're they're
00:53:44
better at military than economy but I think they're they're starting to focus more on economy um as they realize that
00:53:49
that that's necessary um if you look at the benefits of that area the Palestinian people are are are like a
00:53:56
99% literacy rate again through the taxpayer US taxpayer dollars and international donations we've paid for
00:54:01
them to become uh very educated unfortunately I think we've poisoned uh their minds with a lot of what's been
00:54:06
taught um in their curriculums um they have a pretty good health care System there again I think it could be improved
00:54:12
because it's been done very kind of peacemeal versus holistic um and then in addition to that um they obviously have
00:54:18
uh tremendous amount of tourism sites I mean you know Jewish Christian Muslim tourism sites so if they ever get their
00:54:23
acts together I mean the the Boom in that area can be uh unbelievable and I think it could work very very well um
00:54:30
there was one time where the Palestinian economy was working I think it was about
00:54:34
2007 there was a guy named Salam fad who was uh the first time somebody came in who was uh he was not corrupt uh things
00:54:40
were happening uh you know wages were Rising uh projects were moving the money was actually getting to the people and
00:54:46
he became so popular because he was such doing such a good job administering that
00:54:51
uh that the president got rid of him that a boss got rid of him because he saw him as a threat to his power so you
00:54:56
know what's happened is not different right you always have kind of a tyranny of the minority in some way uh with with
00:55:01
with most forms of of government and so uh what happened was is as he was starting to gain popularity he became a
00:55:07
threat to kind of the cronyism that occurred and so I think that the International Community if they're going
00:55:12
to put money into this again to either rebuild number one it has to be conditions based again we've put tens of
00:55:18
billions of dollars into this situation right I mean this this Refugee group has
00:55:22
gotten more money uh over time than any refugee group in history by a factor of maybe a hundred right and then you know
00:55:29
you you you've none of it's been conditions based and it has to be in in a set where people are trying to create
00:55:35
outcomes I think one of the problems is a lot of the people working on this don't have business backgrounds they
00:55:39
understand you know human rights or they understand politics but uh they don't understand capitalism and they don't
00:55:44
understand what kind of framework you need in order to allow a society to thrive has treasury ever tried to trace
00:55:50
these dollars or some other organization to just show where the theft happened and where these pools of money have gone
00:55:57
to there's some intelligence on it that I can't go into but uh but I think most people don't want to know to be honest
00:56:04
jamat I mean you could just look at it in a couple of ways like you know you look at um you know we would meet with
00:56:09
prime minister Netanyahu in Washington and he would take a commercial LL flight to come meet us and he runs a military
00:56:15
superpower an economic superpower uh in the region uh president abas would come visit us in Washington and he uh
00:56:22
obviously represents a refugee group and he would fly in a $60 million Boeing Business Jet private jet to to
00:56:28
Washington I mean I'd meet with him and we'd be sitting around and uh you know he'd put a cigarette in his mouth and
00:56:33
then somebody would come over and they'd like the cigarette for him and I'd be like am I meeting with the head of a
00:56:37
refugee group am I meeting with like a king you know it's just it it was a different situation and um but I think
00:56:43
people just but he's the reasonable one right the alternative is Hamas and those
00:56:47
guys I mean those are billionaire Hypocrites who live in Kar at the Four Seasons right yeah but but my sense is
00:56:55
is you're you're going to get what you Demand right and I think that from the US's perspective right we give about $4
00:57:00
billion do a year in foreign aid to the PA to unra to Jordan to Egypt and uh and
00:57:06
we've we've tolerated you know status quo that's not acceptable and you know one of the difference again Trump had a
00:57:12
lot of tension with the foreign policy you know establishment and it was over a lot of things right obviously he wanted
00:57:17
to end the forever Wars he felt like we should get some return on the Investments we were making he felt like
00:57:22
us Aid wasn't an entitlement but I think the biggest difference was they wanted to all maintain the world they wanted
00:57:28
just to manage it and he wanted to change it and you know what we did by the by the time again this was one of
00:57:33
the disagreements I had with the incoming Administration um is that when we turned over the Middle East to them
00:57:39
again we I spoke earlier about what a mess U you know we kind of inherited when we started but we had five piece
00:57:45
deals between Israel and and majority Muslim countries uh Iran was totally broke again under Obama uh when he left
00:57:53
they were selling about 2.6 million barrels of oil a day under Trump when he left office they were selling 100,000
00:57:58
barrels of oil a day they were out of foreign currency reserves they were dead broke uh now they're back up to three
00:58:04
million barrels a day of of sales they've done over hundred billion dollars uh of oil Revenue uh since we
00:58:10
left office the Palestinians you know one of the things we did uh after I think the first year is we cut the
00:58:14
funding to UNR very controversial we saying oh this is for refugees we said it's not for refugees it's to build
00:58:19
Terror tunnels and Rockets and they're saying no it's for schools and hospitals and we were saying those are the
00:58:23
military bases and were saying you guys are crazy you're cruel and our whole thing and so when we left the PA was was
00:58:30
basically broke um the Arabs had kind of lost interest in in that cause uh because they kind of saw that it was it
00:58:36
was morally bankrupt and that uh every time we gave a boss the opportunity to do something better for his people he
00:58:42
refused and and they kind of saw that you know we kind of we smoked him out a little bit and so we kind of took the
00:58:47
issue and We Shrunk it tremendously and the final deal we did was between Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Egypt and Barra and
00:58:55
that was a critical uh deal to do because that was what really made it possible for uh Saudi and Israel to then
00:59:01
do the deal and that was really on the table right when we left but it took too much time they allowed Iran to get too
00:59:07
strong they started allowing Iran to get money they started funding the Palestinians and and unra again and uh
00:59:13
and now you have a situation where it's just become you know a mess it could be fixed it definitely can be fixed if
00:59:17
you're strong and if you're smart but if you're going to go back to kind of the old ideas uh you're going to get the old
00:59:23
results you need new ideas you need to create the ideas and force them you can't just wait for them to occur and
00:59:29
then go back to the old institutions the old people who have failed before who do
00:59:33
you think should be Secretary of State in the next Administration I think Jared should he could do a pretty good job let
00:59:40
me ask you about the two two-state solution let's just double click on this I mean my my view on this and I think by
00:59:46
the standards of Israeli politics I'd be a liberal there is that the only solution the only way out of this is the
00:59:52
two-state solution you you know we can't have a situation of indefinite permanent
00:59:57
occupation of the Palestinian people at some point they developed a national Consciousness and if you have conditions
01:00:03
of permanent occupation they're going to resist and you're going to have outbursts of
01:00:08
terrorism at the same time if Israel just outright annexes these territories or continues on a program of call it
01:00:16
creeping annexation where it keeps building settlements in the West Bank and you have a greater Israel that
01:00:23
eventually Jews and Israel will not be the majority of the population I think if you look at kind of Greater Israel
01:00:28
there's about 7.3 million Jews there's about 7.3 million Palestinian Arabs so if if the plan is a single greater
01:00:38
Israel is either going to stop being a Jewish State because you know the Palestinians will vote for something
01:00:45
different or it'll continue being the Jewish state but there's going to be some sort of two-tier system where a lot
01:00:50
of Palestinians won't have the vote and So eventually a greater Israel have to choose between whether it wants to be
01:00:55
Democratic or whether it wants to be Jewish and that seems like a very bad choice it seems like we want both those
01:01:01
things to be true so again that kind of brings you back to a two-state solution as the only option here and yet it seems
01:01:08
to me that the two-state solution has never been further away it seems like it's never been further away in terms of
01:01:16
Israeli domestic politics and it's never been further away in terms of having uh
01:01:22
a negotiating partner to negotiate something like this with so that would be sort of my pessimistic
01:01:29
Outlook I mean I know you're pretty optimistic about the situation do you see it differently than that is that
01:01:34
framing wrong somehow how how would you how would you see it so number one is I'm naturally optimistic and I I just
01:01:41
find it's more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic but I'll say everything I'm
01:01:45
saying in the context of the fact that this is a really really really really hard problem set right so um I'll try to
01:01:52
say this um in the right order so number one is I I don't think there's any viability to a one state and I don't
01:01:58
think that that's something that will ever occur um number two is um and I actually you know what's interesting one
01:02:05
of the problems is a lot of the uh the Arabs and the Palestinians would actually prefer to be part of Israel
01:02:10
than a Palestinian state so right before coid we released the Trump peace plan which uh which again you can you can
01:02:16
still find online and U I think the political part of it was about 54 Pages the economic part and the political part
01:02:22
was about 181 pages in detail um we at the time got the right-wing and the left wing again it was they were in the third
01:02:28
election and we had uh prime minister Netanyahu and Benny Gans who's also an amazing um person came in and they they
01:02:35
all endorsed it and so what I would find what I tell you is that semantics you know state has to do a lot with
01:02:40
semantics so uh you can definitely give them a state the question is is you know
01:02:44
you have to give Israel certain overriding security controls so that uh so that the state cannot be a threat to
01:02:50
them and then you can let them kind of earn their way out of that with good behavior and and showing that it's a
01:02:54
true partnership but what I will just tell you is that whatever you call it you give them a flag you can give them
01:02:59
whatever you want unless there's a system where people can live a better life then the grievance will overtake uh
01:03:06
will overtake whatever Independence they have and it will just become a problem again and so um so I do think a
01:03:12
two-state solution is is possible again what you do with Gaza is very much you know TBD um but I do think especially in
01:03:18
the West Bank there there's definitely possibility to do it and I think that from Israel they'd like to see that
01:03:23
happen where uh they'd like the Palestinians to be able to govern themselves but it's it's a couple big
01:03:28
ifs if it's not a security threat and if they can have a viable economy that's going to happen one of the big things
01:03:33
that's happening now that I'm hearing about is that I think the number was like 250,000 Palestinians who had work
01:03:38
visas from the West Bank to uh to go into Israel and now with the threat there's just such a great distrust that
01:03:44
has that has occurred that those are now not being renewed so I think Israel is gonna have to bring in workers from
01:03:49
other parts of the world but that was an amazing thing right you had Muslims and
01:03:52
Jews you know working together you had uh you know Palestinians whose lives were better off because they were
01:03:58
working with Israel so the vast majority of the Palestinians maybe not the vast I
01:04:02
don't know it's people have different perspectives on this but I I I just believe that fundamentally human beings
01:04:07
want to live a better life uh I don't think our natural state is is to hate each other or to be uh or to not be
01:04:13
together again if you look at the Middle East for you know a thousand years before the second World War I mean Jews
01:04:18
and Muslims and Christians they lived very peacefully together so you know what I was seeing with the Abraham
01:04:23
Accords and what I was oping would occur would really be a reversion to the pre-World War II era where people were
01:04:28
starting to live peacefully together but there's been a lot of hate that's been fermented and manipulated over over this
01:04:34
time but the best way to start it is just you know take it one day at a time you know we used to say in government we
01:04:38
get a hard problem you know used to say you know how do you eat an elephant you know one bite at a time and so just have
01:04:44
to kind of outline where you want to get to put in place the right system and then just start you know step after step
01:04:49
after step and then you get to a place and and maybe you're able to do something that becomes viable with time
01:04:54
Jared did you see the um debates last night did you watch them uh no I did not SX did you watch
01:05:02
them uh I didn't watch the whole thing I've seen Clips on social media do you have any takeaways I mean was it even
01:05:09
worth watching yeah I thought I thought the the clips did a pretty good job of actually showing some of the punchier
01:05:16
moments but the crazy thing is that the the mainstream media has completely erased PC's
01:05:24
candidacy I don't even think it exists in the eyes of the mainstream media but if you look on on X all the posts were
01:05:31
like he clearly won and he was basically throwing Fireballs everywhere but then if you go to you know CNN or Fox you
01:05:38
don't even hear his name right so it's it's a real real difference the mainstream media coverage is what they
01:05:45
want you to believe and social media is what actually happened it's what people actually believe and I think that if you
01:05:52
look at social media what it shows is that V dominated the debate and he was throwing fireballs and he was slamming
01:06:01
the neocons on the stage and showing that there's been I think an irreparable break between the neocon establishment
01:06:10
Wing in the Republican party and the more populist Maga Wing So I think that's that's kind of what social media
01:06:17
is showing and then you know if you listen to mainstream media they they to the extent they talk about vake it's
01:06:22
said he had some sort of meltdown and he insult Ed Nikki Haley's daughter or whatever something like that about her
01:06:27
Tik Tok usage yeah by the way all he said is that that they he was being berated for why he created a Tik Tok
01:06:33
account and he's like I want to reach young people you know like your daughter who's on there and um and for that Nikki
01:06:40
yeah that's what he said and Nikki Haley called him scum for that well no but she
01:06:44
also she also pulled like the Will Smith line like get your my daughter's name out your mouth did she slap him no she
01:06:52
didn't I think it's a pretty good point there's like 75 million Young Americans on Tik Tok if you want to reach them
01:06:57
that's where you post your messages I have seen VES stuff on there I've seen RFK
01:07:03
Junior's videos on there yeah like everyone uses Tik Tok now if you want to reach people that's his reality Nikki
01:07:10
Haley doesn't I'm not sure I don't know that she has much of a social media following because I don't think her
01:07:17
campaign inspires any real Grassroots I think her campaign is supported and propped up by the GOP establishment Wing
01:07:24
I don't think there's any market for what she's selling among the Grassroots so social media is kind of pointless for
01:07:29
her but if you actually want to reach people especially young people use social media well it was pretty intense
01:07:35
when Vive said that the the head of the RNC should just be fired for all the losing and kind of went through every
01:07:42
single election in the midterms and whatnot that they've lost since she became the head of the RNC and
01:07:48
apparently on social media uh she mouthed something to the effect of this guy's an a-hole he's going to get a
01:07:54
single set from us yeah R McDaniel who I know I mean I like ra but I mean has she done a good
01:08:02
job sax look I it's hard for me to speak to the job she's actually done because I
01:08:06
don't know the activities are actually involved in being RNC chair so but I mean the's point is look at the results
01:08:15
so if we were on the board of a company that kept missing quarter after quarter and the CEO said no look at all the good
01:08:21
things I'm doing we would probably still fire that CEO just because you're like how do things get worse right you just
01:08:27
take the chance that you bring in a new CEO they're going to do better so the reality is our results in the Republican
01:08:33
Party have been shitty lately now is that all R's fault no it may not be much of her fault at all but how do you do
01:08:39
worse I think a big reason for the crappy results have been the abortion issue we've now had this issue on the ballot
01:08:49
in at least six states most of which were red States a couple of them were purple States it's lost every time the
01:08:56
anti-abortion or pro-life side has lost decisively every time and I think there's a lot of reasons to vote
01:09:04
Republican I think Republicans have the advantage on the economy on border on anything related to to woke on um crime
01:09:14
and homelessness these are all issues that should be big winners for Republicans but the public by I think
01:09:21
probably a two-third majority does not want to ban abortion and as long as that issue is in the Forefront Republicans
01:09:29
are going to lose and actually it was Anne Coulter who just said this um an cter had a really good blog post about
01:09:35
this saying that the pro-life yeah I I retweeted it by the way she's very pro-life I mean she's a social
01:09:42
conservative but she says that prif is is going to wipe out the Republican party they need to focus on
01:09:48
non-political activities which is winning over hearts and minds they have to make the case to the country have to
01:09:54
persuade more people because they're not in a position they're not popular enough
01:09:58
to actually win elections you concur Jared you think the Republican part's going to change their position or need
01:10:03
to change their position to win elections presidential election aside well ultimately if you don't win then
01:10:09
you can't govern and you can't impact the change you want to do so I do think that uh people are definitely paying
01:10:14
attention you know the results are the results I will say that you know one thing with with Trump e won you know
01:10:19
with his operation we were able to overperform our polling I think here in these last times there's been
01:10:25
underperformance of of polling and so that's something that obviously you have to look at which is uh very troubling
01:10:30
but I'll also say that with you know what I found again you know I'm not really um as somebody who's newer to the
01:10:36
Republican party what I found is that you know both parties are really I would say collections of of of tribes right
01:10:41
you have different tribes that kind of make up the party but what I found in the Republican party was that there was
01:10:46
a ton of infighting and finger pointing and Purity tests and um you know instead
01:10:51
of saying like you know you know I'm happy you agree with me on on 70% or 80% it was basically saying well if you
01:10:56
don't agree with me on 100% then then then you're a bad Republican and I think that uh that's a that's a culture that's
01:11:02
going to lead to you um having very strong opinions but having no ability to AFF effectuate things I think that
01:11:07
people have to you know say where do we agree on on different issues uh that uh where do we agree on issues how can we
01:11:13
work together to do it but if you don't win then you're not going to be able to effectuate the things you want and even
01:11:17
worse the other side's going to be effectuating the things they want and you look at where the world is today
01:11:21
because of that there's a lot of intern seen fighting in the Republican party I think Trump's instincts on abortion
01:11:28
actually have been very good I said this a couple of months ago there was kind of
01:11:31
a brew HaHa on the right when Trump gave an interview in which he said that that
01:11:38
actually what the santis had done in Florida with the six-week ban was a mistake and that he sort of up leveled
01:11:44
the issue and just said I'm going to find a compromise that makes everybody happy and this created a lot of upset
01:11:50
people on the right because they thought that Trump was kind of selling them out
01:11:52
on the abortion issue and I made this case on Megan Kelly a couple months ago that I thought that what Trump was doing
01:11:59
was pretty smart because he doesn't want to get pinned down on an issue that's going to hurt him in the general and I
01:12:06
think part of the reason why he was being a little bit Cy on that issue is because he knows it would hurt him in
01:12:13
the general and he's starting to think about that and I think the results that we just had the other day are strong
01:12:18
Vindication of that and just let me say just more generally that whenever Trump has opposed Republican group think on an
01:12:26
issue I think he's invariably been proven correct if you go all the way back to 2016 you know think about all the um
01:12:34
heresies that he committed in the Republican Party he spoke out against the forever Wars against Bush's forever
01:12:40
Wars I think he was right about that at the time the Republican Party either wasn't talking about immigration or
01:12:46
didn't really seem to care he basically made uh the Border a huge issue I think he's proven right about that the issue
01:12:53
of China and China trade was not a issue in the Republican party if anything it was sort of
01:13:00
this this sort of unreconstructed free trade total free trade issue going back was pushing the TPP that year right
01:13:06
exactly so Trump defied the Orthodoxy on that I think his prove incorrect Paul Ryan also wanted to ratchet back
01:13:12
entitlements like Social Security Medicare and Trump thought that was suicidal for the GOP so he opposed that
01:13:18
I think on all these issues whenever he has defied the Orthodoxy he's been proven correct and um you know I don't
01:13:24
know if it's a conscious thing or it's just that he's got tremendous gut instincts as a politician be curious to
01:13:30
get Jared's take on that like how much of this is sort of him working things out and how much of it is just his gut
01:13:36
but I think this is why he's still the candidate to beat for the Republican nomination is at the end of the day for
01:13:43
all of Trump's issues he's actually the best politician in the Republican party you know I would see the way that he
01:13:48
would work on trade and again uh you know trade deals usually take five six years and and you know his attitude on
01:13:54
on trade was that uh whenever there's a multilateral it's the the weaker countries all ganging up on the stronger
01:13:59
party and so he says like I want to do them bilaterally so he withdrew from TPP uh which everyone went crazy and said it
01:14:05
was a disaster well we ended up negotiating with Japan and Korea and everyone and we got basically 95% of the
01:14:11
market access that was in TPP without giving up any of the things that would have absolutely decimated our Auto
01:14:15
industry uh we renegotiated the the NAFTA which you know everyone said Obama said they would Bush said he wanted to
01:14:21
fix it uh meanwhile Trump came in in a year and a half we renegotiated naftan it got over 80 votes in the Senate it
01:14:27
was a bipartisan uh win and it it set the highest standards for labor protection it it did a lot of great
01:14:32
things uh that I think make America way more competitive and hopefully will reduce our trade deficit so these were
01:14:38
all things that he took on that people weren't willing to and again he said you know look if I'm wrong you know putting
01:14:44
tariffs on these different countries I remember people coming into him saying uh saying if you put these tariffs on
01:14:48
the whole world's going to explode the US economy is going to blow up and I remember sitting with him privately and
01:14:53
he said to me you know Jared we had a year debate and we had some people who were more religious about this issue
01:14:58
than anything else and he says you know Jared I've been saying this for 30 years
01:15:02
I believe it uh I campaigned on it I won on it I have to see it like I have to see it through it you know what if it
01:15:08
turns out it's a big disaster I could always take him off you know and so that was kind of like his way of thinking
01:15:12
about it where he had his Instinct he follow his Instinct but he knew he could always back off and I think his
01:15:17
flexibility and unpredictability were some of his greatest assets and I think also on on the border and immigration
01:15:22
again it's an issue somebody you know grew up you know in New Jersey and then was living on the upper e side that I
01:15:27
didn't a lot of residents for but now you're seeing my friends in New York now they're getting a taste of what it can
01:15:31
do you know to to the country they're they're becoming you know big immigration Hawks like Trump the thing
01:15:36
that the Republicans need to realize right now is that if you pick these topics that go down a rabbit hole you're
01:15:43
going to be in a really tough spot in the general because the economy is also going to be in reasonable shape now if
01:15:51
we were going to go into a November election where there were we were going to be in a recession that's very bad for
01:15:55
Biden but sort of the tea leaves for whatever it's worth all the predictions all the predictive markets show that
01:16:02
we're going to be in a reasonable place and so the Republicans get need to get very very focused sacks as you say on
01:16:08
the real issues list here right because they're not going to have the benefit of
01:16:12
the Tailwind of a bad economy to say President Biden has done a bad job necessarily and so the message will need
01:16:18
to be even more precise and focused and so I think that that's going to be an important thing I I did a Tea Leaf
01:16:24
reading on macro if you guys want it I have some charts just I'm just give you a little rundown of because I I went and
01:16:31
you know look we used to talk about these things when I was when we were doing a lot of forecasting going into
01:16:38
this cycle but so here's like a couple of really interesting observations so the first
01:16:44
one is when you look at this M2 money supply look how much it's actually shrunk now why that's interesting to me
01:16:53
me is that you have these two forces that are opposing each other one is we have these huge deficits so we're
01:17:00
technically still frankly issuing a lot of money right but then on the other side we we have QT so when debt rolls
01:17:07
off we're not reissuing it and the balance of that is still a really constructive thing where now you can see
01:17:14
that you know M2 has materially started to shrink and I think that that's a really positive thing because now what
01:17:20
that does it it combats inflation in a good way unfortunately for all of us it hurts
01:17:25
Financial assets which is not so good I think we've all felt that pain but the reality is that that's been working so
01:17:31
then Nick if you go to the second chart so what you see now is like we are in a really decent place with inflation and
01:17:38
if you think about what's going to happen over the next six months it's mostly in the bag and meaning we talked
01:17:46
about this before but there's a lag effect on a handful of components specifically rents which when you roll
01:17:53
them into this inflation rate you're going to see it really really turn over very quickly right so we know that
01:18:00
inflation is falling it's going to fall even more the second thing Nick the third
01:18:06
chart here is you can see that now validated in these 10-year break events remember this was the chart we used to
01:18:12
look at when we were like holy mackerel something's going to break in November of
01:18:17
21 I think we probably should have just sold everything we had in November 21 we
01:18:21
didn't do it but the point is now we know and what you see here is the 10-year break evens are
01:18:28
also telling us okay guys we're going to be in a pretty decent place and so I think the setup is
01:18:34
basically the following there's less money in the system that's a positive Nick if you show the last chart
01:18:40
there's more money on the sidelines and this is just a picture of I mean look at
01:18:45
the amount of money in Money Market funds 6 trillion and growing so that's a really positive sign which is that money
01:18:53
will need to find a home once Dr once no even just now because you're gonna you're going to be
01:19:01
in a situation where and I'll get to this in a second but companies are now starting to perform because they've been
01:19:06
able to rebaseline against very very lower expectations right and and money managers have to do their job in deploy
01:19:13
capital and that's something we mentioned I think last week but this is now the beginning of the new fiscal year
01:19:18
for the entire mutual fund complex so that's trillions of dollars that have to get deployed because even though you pay
01:19:25
them a very small fee per year you're not paying them to hold cash you're paying them to make decisions and own
01:19:31
assets and then as you said freedberg the last part of this is now you introduce rate cuts and that's a real
01:19:37
accelerant now more than likely I think what that means is that markets are set up to to do pretty well Equity markets
01:19:45
specifically and so I went and I said well how can we see some data that proves that this is happening and what's
01:19:52
amazing is if you look at the performance of what I would call the most risk adjusted seeking companies so
01:19:59
those are Tech businesses that have been absolutely hammered what you see in the
01:20:04
last month is they have gone just nuclear aen up 30% in a matter of a week door Dash is up you know 25 30% in a
01:20:13
matter of a week data dog up 30% in the matter of a week these are the businesses that were just completely
01:20:21
decimated so what is all of this saying I think what what it's kind of saying is
01:20:25
inflation is very much in the rearview mirror rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year the economy
01:20:32
looks like it's going to be a soft Landing that is actually very beneficial for the sitting
01:20:38
president it's also good for equities it's good for us so it's really interesting actually I
01:20:44
think we've had a fundamental kind of now change J do you think this will have an effect on the election cycle I think
01:20:49
it definitely could but I do think a lot of people are still very concerned I know the
01:20:53
the the the the inflation the the wages wage inflation is still about 4% I think
01:20:58
that people are um are still just nervous about what could come I think there's been a lot of shocks and there's
01:21:04
been a couple of times where it's felt that way um and I think that you know election years traditionally bring a lot
01:21:09
more volatility to the market because there's unpredictability about what the policy will be going forward so I think
01:21:14
that of people who have kind of been a little Whiplash from the the transition of over the last year to 18 months see
01:21:22
that they're going into another cycle of uncertainty I do think that you know now
01:21:25
you're actually getting paid to not do anything uh with your money in those money market accounts so there's less of
01:21:30
a maybe less of a fomo to kind of go out and do something uh there so uh so I think that a lot of people are still G
01:21:37
to be very much in kind of wait and see mode and obviously look for for special opportunities which I think will only
01:21:42
further exacerbate uh a potential decline as well Jared last week we talked about real estate you used to be
01:21:48
in the real estate business what do you have any thoughts on Commercial Real Estate and how
01:21:53
good bad average things are so I still have a lot of exposure to commercial real estate through my family's company
01:21:59
and uh we're mostly in the multif family space I think the office space right now
01:22:04
is in for a massive uh change in the industry I think you're going to see a lot of the older buildings get uh get
01:22:10
transitioned a lot of them are trading now for below uh land price which is which is pretty remarkable I think you
01:22:15
have um you also have a transition in kind of what are the cities of growth right so you look at a place like San
01:22:21
Francisco uh and there's a big debate over whether you know AI is going to save you know the office Market there or
01:22:26
whether it's kind of like the Detroit of this Industrial Revolution and it's just
01:22:30
never going to come back and then you're seeing a lot of these San Francisco companies move to New York and the New
01:22:34
York people are saying oh there's too much crime and homelessness and they're saying compared to San Francisco this
01:22:38
looks like a you know super it's it's a beautiful place and so you know New York
01:22:44
is still doing I think okay but you're seeing a lot of plays throughout the country that that are but the
01:22:49
fundamental with real estate is it's correlated to interest rates and so you know if interest rates you know right
01:22:54
now I think the 10 years at like four and a half if it goes up to to six you're just going to see a repricing in
01:22:59
real estate assets if it settles at at four and a half five then you'll you'll probably see more stability and what
01:23:04
that will be but ultimately uh real estates become much more institutionalized over the last call it
01:23:09
two decades and it's really a function of you know what are your your rent and expense growths and then what kind of
01:23:14
what what can you borrow at and can you create you know a positive yield that's hopefully a good hedge against inflation
01:23:20
so I I think net net it will be great asset class I mean it's probably one of the biggest asset classes in the world
01:23:26
um I think right now though a lot of people are just holding back because they're not certain what the what the uh
01:23:32
what the multiples or cap rates as they call them in real estate are going to be
01:23:35
on a forward basis but they're really going to be a function of of what's the growth in the economy going to be and
01:23:40
then also uh what the forward interest rates will be that's fair I think that everything's
01:23:47
challenged in real estate I mean the demand size challenged because you've had the whole work from home Co
01:23:52
disruption and a lot of cities haven't fully come back I think New York's come back at this point but like San
01:23:57
Francisco definitely hasn't I think New York is something like 95% of workers are back in the office I think in San
01:24:04
Francisco it's only like 45% so you've got demand issues then you've got financing issues you know um refinancing
01:24:11
is much more expensive because interest rates are higher and then you've got these cap rate issues where no one knows
01:24:16
what the long-term valuations are going to be so everything's a mess and by the way that that gets compounded by the
01:24:22
fact that now banks that have office exposure are pulling back their lending so you have a combination of you know uh
01:24:27
cost of borrowing being higher and then the availability availability of liquidity going lower and that's could
01:24:33
further compound a lot of these refinances but a lot of what the people I know in the industry are telling me is
01:24:37
that they're able just to work with existing lenders and just do some kind of uh extension and and you know just
01:24:43
kind of live to fight for another day to get through the cycle and I will say in
01:24:46
New York that the the rental rates for residential I think are at historic highs and and actually what what my
01:24:52
family seen in their portfolio is that their properties in Jersey City which is basically like the six burrow of New
01:24:57
York are just absolutely on fire because it's basically you know you go to New York now you go to a CVS everything's
01:25:03
locked up you can't buy anything it doesn't feel necessarily like the safest city you go to Jersey City they actually
01:25:08
have like you know Law and Order and rule of law and so um so you still take a train to New York and that's actually
01:25:14
been a place that's done incredibly well so you always have Micro markets and you
01:25:17
have different trends that that work and don't work but uh but I wouldn't bet against New York it's still amazing City
01:25:23
and one thing about New York is every time I'm there I I always talk with some of the cops and I basically ask them I
01:25:28
say if you had a mayor that said uh go be cops go Be Cops nobody's gonna you know hold you back you know get out of
01:25:35
the car do you do we got you back how long would it take you to clean this place up and the answer I get is usually
01:25:40
anywhere from like three months to six months so like we could have this place fixed so clearly they have to let us be
01:25:44
cops again and um and so I am hopeful that you know eventually there'll be the political will to just you know let New
01:25:50
York be what is it has the potential poal to be it's such an amazing Dynamic place it's such a good point I mean it
01:25:56
really is is just a matter of political will yeah if you hire more cops and let them do their job that will stop the
01:26:04
crime or certainly the incentive for Crime right now people think they can get away with this stuff and they don't
01:26:09
get prosecuted when they get caught the jails are like a revolving door yeah they have plenty of cops they just have
01:26:14
to let them do their jobs and they need prosecutors who will Who will do their jobs as well I I worked at Manan
01:26:18
District Attorney's office when I was at myu law for the summer I mean you have amazing people there and if they are
01:26:24
allowed to kind of follow the procedures and just just do the job in the way it's
01:26:27
been done before uh you can make that City very very safe very quickly we we actually have a cop shortage in San
01:26:34
Francisco as well it's not just a matter of not letting them do their job we actually have a massive shortage the
01:26:40
city needs to hire a lot more they allowed uh a pretty high rate of attrition in the role I don't think
01:26:46
there's a lot of people who want to be cops in San Francisco it's a pretty tough job and they'll get a lot of
01:26:51
support so yeah we actually have a shortage here and that's a big problem yeah but it's very solvable as you say I
01:26:57
mean just hire more train them let them do their jobs Jared how much do you think um Federal deficits and the
01:27:04
federal debt matters going to this election cycle is it going to be a top topic or is it not really going to
01:27:09
matter and then more importantly how consequential is it in reality I think in reality it's it's massively
01:27:15
consequential um I think in the election cycle I think both parties are going to
01:27:19
probably try to avoid talking about it because I think that you know everyone knows you know what I find in politics
01:27:24
is when some things are really big issue people try not to talk about it that much and um are gonna have to get cut
01:27:31
right the hope is is that you know um once you get through the election things can be done to to to have to deal with
01:27:37
it but it's definitely an issue that needs to be dealt with what do you think that is Raising
01:27:42
ra raising revenue or cutting expenses or both growth growth is the answer everyone always gives that's that's the
01:27:51
political Cop Out answer growth 6% economic GDP growth how about we freeze spending until till the denominator can
01:27:57
grow big enough to reduce the I mean balance budget amendment Etc but but speaking of GDB growth I mean do you
01:28:03
guys want to cover Tech stories at AI this week real quick before we WRA I mean it's really can I get can I just uh
01:28:10
I got I can't resist getting Jared on the record about uh the Russia Ukraine war oh so I mean this is a war that I
01:28:17
thought was very easily avoidable you have a one minute budget one minute budget one minute that's all I need
01:28:22
starting the shot clock to's gonna ring the gavl I'm gonna take a break go you got 60 seconds well I think U I think
01:28:29
David's happy to have somebody on who agrees with him on on on most of what he's been saying uh so yeah we we worked
01:28:35
with uh with Ukraine and we worked well with Russia uh during our four years uh i' like to point out to people that uh
01:28:41
when we were in kind of our worst moments in coid the the second country that sent us plain load of supplies and
01:28:46
ventilators when New York looked like it was you know on the verge of going under
01:28:49
was Russia and that was because we were offering them the possibility of of working together we armed Ukraine but we
01:28:55
also told Ukraine you know don't even think about raising NATO um as a membership as as a way to go I think
01:29:01
what happened was is the Biden Administration uh you know had conversations with Ukraine about joining
01:29:06
NATO Russia basically pushed their their military to the front line to say we are
01:29:09
never going to let this happen if you go through uh kind of the geography and the
01:29:13
history you understand why um you know Russia you know we'll never let that occur and I think it was right after you
01:29:18
know the embarrassment of what happened with our withdrawal in Afghanistan where
01:29:21
they thought that we had a weak America that was going to come and do much to it
01:29:25
so um I think it was all very very avoidable I think that you know from what I read and again I wasn't involved
01:29:30
in these conversations it did feel like there were some off-ramps uh initially but I do think that from our perspective
01:29:36
I think the number one interest has always been how do we avoid a nuclear war I don't think that that's uh that's
01:29:41
something we we want to see happen and I do think that um I do think that hopefully they'll be able to find some
01:29:47
kind of resolution to uh to to not have that be a problem and I will say too that that's impacting the middle least I
01:29:52
mean right now what's happening with uh with Israel and with uh with the Palestinians and Iran is basically a
01:29:57
proxy war for Russia I mean if the America decided tomorrow let's change and support the Palestinians then Russia
01:30:02
would come and be for Israel I mean there's not a lot of ideology for them in that but I think Russia and China
01:30:07
want to see the US stretched and distracted so that we're we're less focused on kind of the areas where we're
01:30:13
more directly uh in um in in conflict with them and so I think that that's a very major thing and I will say too like
01:30:19
I I think that you know I I don't believe that that countries have permanent allies or permanent enemies
01:30:25
you know I during my time in government we deal with the Germans and the Japanese who uh were vicious in World
01:30:30
War II and we'd be against the Chinese and we'd be against the Russians who were basically our our allies in World
01:30:34
War II and so um I don't think countries really have friends I think countries have have interests and I think that uh
01:30:41
with with most countries you have areas of overlapping interest and I think that
01:30:45
uh you can find those even with countries where you're in opposition for so you know one of the the the operating
01:30:50
principles I I brought uh to all the different foreign policy problem sets I was given was don't condemn tomorrow to
01:30:56
be like yesterday because you think it has to be and so I would always look at something I'd try to pull whatever
01:31:02
optimism I could find and then say you know what's the best case scenario from a first principal's perspective I'd
01:31:08
start there and then I'd work through all the problems uh that you had to try to get there so um so so David I think
01:31:15
you've been uh way more right on Ukraine than than others and uh and I do think there's been a tremendous amount that's
01:31:21
been mismanaged by uh by the US and and by the world in that in that scenario and I think it's unfortunate too because
01:31:26
I think a lot of uh people have been killed in that war and I I do think that obviously the invasion of Ukraine was
01:31:32
was was a terrible thing it should never have happened uh but I do think there's
01:31:35
a lot of um acts by leaders that could have been done in order to either prevent it or or minimize it and and I
01:31:42
still think that that's the job of of leaders in the world is to try to do the hard things and try to do the things to
01:31:47
to make the world a less volatile and dangerous place you think it's coming to an end
01:31:52
it's definitely lost its prominence it does seem militarily um again I'm I'm sitting here in Miami you know reading
01:31:59
you know you know X and and newspapers and talking to folks so I mean I'm not going to Pine like I'm a general on the
01:32:05
front lines but um but it does seem like it's kind of reached the point where it's not much is going to change
01:32:11
militarily and uh and and you know again like every day that goes on there's just
01:32:16
more life that's being lost and again I said the same thing with Israel that I'd
01:32:19
say here I mean Russia and Ukraine both have unbelievably brilliant people if you take all these these young men and
01:32:24
you take them off the battle lines and put them back into you know their jobs of of creating things I just think that
01:32:29
that that's just a much better thing for the world so uh my hope is that you know
01:32:34
the leaders involved try to find a way to get to a resolution uh again you know I think that you know both sides have
01:32:39
maybe over promised their people what what victory looks like but that's the job of negotiation right you need to you
01:32:44
know you need to find an off-ramp for everyone and get them to a place where we can you know start focusing on how to
01:32:49
make tomorrow better instead of grievances from the past do you guys see that sunny sunny tweeted this thing he
01:32:55
had dinner last night with Farhan who the VP of engineering at Shopify did you see his tweet can you
01:33:03
find it he said that Shopify has written more than a million lines of code with co-pilot already oh
01:33:11
wow I was like what yeah I mean I don't exactly know how there's your there's your GDP growth Jared well that's
01:33:21
definitely growth I wonder whether it'll be it'll be GD I mean I think I think it will I
01:33:28
think a lot of product productivity gains are going to drive the economy forward historically I was just talking
01:33:34
with someone this past week about over the last couple of decades we've seen a massive shift on GDP growth being driven
01:33:42
largely by labor the labor force growing and labor participation and increasingly
01:33:47
in the last couple of years there's been this tremendous shift that all GDP growth has predominantly driven by
01:33:53
productivity gains and productivity gains you know economically net their way through the uh the system and you
01:33:59
see the the total GDP grow this is the whole argument for AI particularly at A Moment Like This that if you're having a
01:34:05
declining population you're having declining labor participation people want to work fewer
01:34:09
hours if you want to keep growing the economy in order to sustain the debt and the services that you provide through uh
01:34:16
government infrastructure you have to grow the economy and you have to increase productivity it's the only Way
01:34:21
Forward I mean like you could have one it's not like you're going to fire Engineers you're just going to have one
01:34:26
engineer do five times as much da you just solved the whole budget deficit and a debt issue you found the answer it's
01:34:34
Pro productivity driven by by the AI advancements which by the way there is a lot of tremendous productivity gains
01:34:39
that will occur because of this I always give people the example of the tractor like when the tractor came around it's
01:34:45
not like you know people were like Hey we're going to make less food now or you know what happened was we were able to
01:34:50
farm 10 times as much and you know total output increased and when total output increased there was an
01:34:56
abundance of surplus of food of calories that fed people population grew the overall economy grew there's no point in
01:35:03
history that we've had a productivity gain through technology that didn't ultimately grow the economy like it's
01:35:10
never well ever gone the other way in 1900 I think about 50% of workers in America Were Somehow involved in
01:35:18
agriculture and by don't Yeah by 2000 it was down to like 2% so it's not like we
01:35:24
had a 40% unemployment rate all lab figured out a way to do new and productive things and that led to more
01:35:31
wealth that being said it did cause a lot of social disruption and I think certain job classes went away it had to
01:35:37
get replaced by others that had to be invented if you think about a world where there's a
01:35:42
million little companies or 50 million companies or 500 million companies that exist because they're one in two person
01:35:50
teams that can build stuff that seems pretty reasonable and logical as the outcome there's a lot of sort of
01:35:59
like Financial engineering that kind of goes away in that world right I think the job of the
01:36:06
venture capitalist changes really profoundly I think there's a reasonable case to make that it doesn't exist it's
01:36:12
more of an automated system of capital against objectives right and that you want to be making many many many small
01:36:21
,000 $500,000 bets and then you get to this much larger scale where then you once you get
01:36:27
someplace you can go and get the $200 million checks I don't I don't know how else all of this gets supported
01:36:34
financially well so there were there were a couple big news stories this week one was Elon launched grock which is a
01:36:42
uh chat GPT call it competitor it took them about under his xai business unit took him about eight months to train
01:36:50
grock one which is the model uh and by many measures is as performative as GPT 3 and a half GPT 4 at the same no no
01:36:59
grock zero it took three months to train grock zero he's still training grock one
01:37:03
sorry three months to train grock zero yeah Kaiu Lee you guys know Kaiu yeah he was at Google he was at microsof search
01:37:11
yeah and he is um in China and built uh his business starting eight months ago and in those eight months uh
01:37:22
he's now delivered a 34 billion parameter model that he's completely open source that he shows by again some
01:37:30
performative metrics outperforms llama 2 and again doing it from China speaks I think really clearly and importantly to
01:37:39
the point we talked about last week about if the US tries to overregulation move and again this was
01:37:52
done in 8 months and then it's almost like the timing was perfect CU in the same week open aai responds with
01:38:01
developer day they didn't necessarily respond but they had developer day on the books for a long time and at
01:38:06
developer day open AI released a number of really powerful tools for developers that allow them to build really powerful
01:38:13
applications and infrastructure on top of open ai's platform so they uh released apis for Dolly 3
01:38:21
four cents to generate an image using the dolly 3 API they launched a tool to create your own GPT which can actually
01:38:30
leverage proprietary data so from within your own database you're in your your own data Lake you can build a a GPT that
01:38:37
you can then integrate into applications and GPT 4 Turbo with two versions that had you know pretty powerful pricing
01:38:46
improvements all of this um being said it's a it's a big leap forward in what feels like a lowcost low friction
01:38:52
multimodal developer friendly set of tools from open AI that allows them to move away from having the quote best
01:39:00
model to now having what feels like much more of a platform business that as more
01:39:05
um applications and more developers start to utilize open AI toolkit and services a real uh ecosystem starts to
01:39:14
develop and that creates a sustainable business mode rather than just the technical mode that open AI started with
01:39:20
so I think the big point is that we're seeing the technical Gap narrow between the best and the average or the worst
01:39:27
and the median in model development we're also now seeing that the Evolution for a lot of these businesses is through
01:39:35
open AI trying to build you know applications on top of a platform and build a business mode and so there's a
01:39:41
real shift underway but net net I think what the Market's forcing everyone to do
01:39:45
is really compete and build these incredible capabilities that are really going to launch a number of new business
01:39:50
models new Innovations I the question is are we building apps for the IOS app store or are we
01:39:56
building web pages for the open internet and I think open ai's hope is that it's
01:40:01
apps for the App Store because it's proprietary and they own it they could take a share I think the reality is it's
01:40:06
going to end up as the open web and again I think it's mostly because everybody else just
01:40:14
can't afford to let one company run away with it and so you know whether it's llama or mistol or even grock when Elon
01:40:20
opens ources it it's going to allow people to have access to these tools basically for
01:40:28
free the problem that I think it creates is you know we had a you know when I first came to the United States my the
01:40:36
the company that I worked at AOL they were the ones that believed in a fundamentally closed internet right and
01:40:43
you had this service and you went into the Walled Garden of AOL and then the pendulum swung over the last 20 years
01:40:50
and we opened it up at Facebook and at other places and now we have this fundamentally open architecture the
01:40:56
problem now is these models will not get better unless you have fine-tuning that
01:41:00
happens by yourself or these reinforcement learning loops that come from data that you
01:41:06
control and you can see it with Gro Zero part of what makes grock really successful is that Elon and only Elon
01:41:15
can give access to the xire hose to Gro now that's a ginormous repos repository of proprietary data that they're going
01:41:22
to be able to train on so then the question is well obviously then Facebook will want to train their models on
01:41:28
Instagram and their models on WhatsApp Google will want to train Gemini on Gmail none of those companies will want
01:41:36
to make that available to any other model and so the unfortunate byproduct of a more of of foundational models that
01:41:44
are more pervasive is going to be that the internet gets a little bit more closed in the short term and we're going
01:41:50
to have to really figure out what the implications of that are so I think what that means economically is there's just
01:41:55
going to be a lot more small companies and a lot fewer of these ginormous outcomes and
01:42:02
that's on balance probably better for you know Innovation and the economy probably yeah data is the advantage not
01:42:09
the model itself you have to you have to own some data asset that is unique so that you can train these models and then
01:42:17
you have to close it off so nobody else can have access to it and that has to be
01:42:21
an explicit business decision because it would be foolish for you to not do that
01:42:27
sax did you take anything away from this week's announcements with Kaiu Elon and
01:42:31
open AI developer day grock is interesting as an AI because it has a sense of humor I mean that's what's kind
01:42:37
of interesting about the user experience is it tries to be funny it has a sense of irony um it's also willing to be more
01:42:43
Politically Incorrect and I think one of the concerns about cat GPT early on was
01:42:48
that it was programmed to be woke and that it wasn't giving people you know truthful answers about a lot of things
01:42:54
that the censorship was being built in to the to the answers and there was a lot of examples very early on where it
01:43:00
seemed like there was some sort of trust and safety layer that had been built on
01:43:03
top of the AI and sometimes it would intervene and not give you the true answer that came from the AI it would
01:43:09
give you kind of some madeup boiler plate and so having something like grock around will at a minimum keep open AI
01:43:18
honest and keep you know keep chat GPT honest because if it's willing to give you
01:43:23
truthful answers about things that you can compare to the chat GPT answer then we're going to know when these like
01:43:28
so-called trust and safety interventions are are happening so I think that's kind
01:43:32
of interesting separately the open AI developer day shows that that company if you want to call it that I don't know if
01:43:41
it's a company or Foundation or what but it's a complicated legal entity uh I mean what say those are details are yeah
01:43:49
those are details um I mean they are really um Trucking along at full speed I mean it is pretty impressive what
01:43:57
they're shipping yeah the and even if the underlying language models get somewhat commoditized it does seem like
01:44:06
they're building a very robust developer ecosystem so you could analogize it to something like stripe where credit card
01:44:13
payments are pretty much a commodity but everyone uses a stripe because their Dev
01:44:17
tools are so good and then they're able to get to a bunch of scale Network effects because again their developer
01:44:23
platform is so good so I do think that that's the advantage of open AI may not be the model itself although I think I
01:44:30
think their model is actually pretty good but it's is it that much better than llama 2 probably not but the the
01:44:35
developer platform is getting really good and I that's a really interesting analogy because if you play that out and
01:44:40
you say is AI like payments well what does a payments landscape look like in terms of
01:44:46
companies that have real Enterprise Value there are I guess three or four big ones and then there's a bunch of
01:44:53
longtail ones in specific geographies because there're these random rules in a country and you build something to be
01:44:59
very specific to it and you have value in that market or in that use case and maybe there's a maybe there's an analogy
01:45:07
there and how this Market develops in that sense there's four or five big foundational models and then there's a
01:45:11
bunch of small vertical use applications that you use depending on what the task
01:45:15
is well the time and the cost to build new foundational model seems to be shrinking at a pretty fast clip so by
01:45:20
the way all of this happened on h100s yeah and a bunch of these happened on a100 so we're still one generation of
01:45:28
silicon behind so to your point this thing is going to be like people will be training models in weeks yeah so let's
01:45:35
go ahead and track all the world's models and have a federal regulatory body overseeing all of this
01:45:42
well I have a guy from the UK on an H1B so I'm still filling out the TPS report because he I told him don't touch the
01:45:48
model and he did yeah jar you follow all this yeah yeah definitely following high level from my
01:45:55
perspective I I think it's it's great especially with what you mentioned about Kaiu Lee it just confirms what we've
01:46:00
what we've thought which is that America is definitely leading in this and I think that it's just important to to
01:46:05
note that they're leading be really because of the private sector and the fact that the private sector has been
01:46:08
allowed to do what they do and you as we start to think about the regulatory Frameworks I mean you could think of a
01:46:13
open AI as a as a company or a foundation or even as a nation state with with kind of the amount of power
01:46:18
that these things will have the ability to to harness once they're they're fully
01:46:23
scaled and I I just think it's it's it's going to be very interesting to see I think the more uh compe competition you
01:46:29
have here I think the better uh will be very very good but I do think you want the most powerful um uh models the most
01:46:35
powerful platforms to be in the hands of people who are going to try to apply it
01:46:39
for all the right uh all the right things for society so I think that there's a lot of positive applications
01:46:44
there's a lot of negative applications that can come from this um and my hope is that the regulatory Frameworks that
01:46:49
are developed uh won't stifle Innovation at the expense of allowing others to get
01:46:53
ahead of us who will probably use them in um in ways that we would not want to see them used right can I fly a couple
01:46:59
of features that open AI announced that I think are interesting yeah yeah as long as you don't repeat what I said
01:47:04
because you weren't paying attention but yeah go for well did you mention the well if I got this wrong we'll delete it
01:47:09
but did you mention the 128k context window no he did not I did not I did not I think it's kind of a big deal what
01:47:17
that means is you can have a prompt that has pages of text in it yes I'll tell you like several months ago I was trying
01:47:24
to figure out like is there a way where I could just put all of my blog posts in
01:47:29
a prompt for chat GPT and have it turn into a book for example and I was I was kind of like a problem I just started
01:47:37
working on it was actually very complicated try and solve that also like also Vector DBS were a totally useless
01:47:43
intermed like that abstraction didn't need to exist that's all gone now too they're doing those guys are firing on
01:47:48
all cylinders it's really it's really impressive to see yeah the other thing is multimodal I mean so they're really
01:47:54
stressing the idea of combining text with photos I guess videos will eventually come later um
01:48:03
Text to Speech but again having multiple kinds of inputs and outputs for the AI I
01:48:08
think it's kind and proprietary where you can plug in your own proprietary data source I mean it's just a game
01:48:13
changer for a lot of Enterprise customers I think those developers are going to go nuts I heard a lot of
01:48:18
positive feedback from developer I know who attended and sounds like it was very
01:48:23
positively received okay well this has been great Jared thank you so much for joining us
01:48:28
today it was really great to spend time together this is the point in the show where you tell David saaks that you love
01:48:33
him and uh he says right back at you guys I want to say stick in 153 episodes but finally there's a person that I can
01:48:42
say I'm now the second best looking guy on this pod so Jared thank you for coming on
01:48:48
oh you guys are the best I'm going to come back more often that if you'll have I get treated better here than I do in
01:48:54
my home so it's good so so do we that's what expect so much yeah try we hang out
01:48:59
together but thank you guys for having me on and and really thank you for all the different um you know important
01:49:04
conversations you have and again I've met a lot of people who listen to you guys over the time and uh they all find
01:49:09
that you guys give them a lot of good input into a lot of the issues that are impacting our our daily life so thank
01:49:14
you for the opportunity to be with here today thanks for being here yeah thanks for being here thank you very much
01:49:20
let your winners ride Rainman David said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love
01:49:32
queen [Music] of Besties are that's my dog taking your driveway man oh man myit we should all just get a room and just
01:49:52
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release
01:49:57
[Music] somehow we need to get [Music] mer