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E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more

July 01, 2023 / 01:36:57

This episode covers the Wagner Group's recent rebellion in Russia, the implications for the Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on affirmative action. Guests include General David Sacks, Il Duce, and Emperor Nero Calcanus.

The discussion begins with a recap of the Wagner Group's armed insurrection led by Evgeni Prigozhin, which briefly threatened Moscow before being negotiated down. Sacks provides insights into the motivations behind the rebellion and the reactions from various Russian power structures.

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of the rebellion for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Sacks arguing that the Russian populace remains largely supportive of Putin despite the mutiny.

Later, the hosts discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling against affirmative action in college admissions, examining its potential impact on university policies and the future of diversity initiatives.

The episode concludes with reflections on the current state of venture capital, highlighting the challenges faced by startups and the implications of recent funding trends.

TLDR

The episode discusses the Wagner Group's rebellion in Russia, its impact on Ukraine, and the Supreme Court's ruling on affirmative action.

Episode

1:36:57
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this is going to be a feisty episode is it two of us are on Greenwich Mean Time two
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of us are in Pacific J Cal still would sleep in his head I'm good actually you good I'm good all right well great to be
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back welcome to the all conspiracy podcast where we repeat false statements and help spin them into Tales of
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struggling Against The Establishment the elite and the mainstream media we will deliver to you the people the revolution
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against the powers that be unless it offends still trying to get my invite for next
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week we'll also enjoy sharing with you fantastic stories of opulence let's be neutral opulence Leisure and benevolent
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greed here we go joining me today are my co-hosts General David sacks commander of the fourth Battalion of the internet
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tweet Brigade General welcome joining us from a remote location in Moscow has there been like an
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establishment takeover of the Pod yeah every argument they make against us you're basically just conceding is true
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I know exactly from his 12th century Mediterranean Castle ill Duce welcome to moth how is the Mediterranean
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diet treating you uh blue blue and Emperor Nero calcanus ruler over podcasts paid events entrepreneurial
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universities and dental spvs emperor thank you for letting me sit in your throne today it's good to be here thank
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you Dental sbps shout out to my dentists well you say king of STDs she says PVS oh spvs Central spvs yeah
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that's the thing with certain STDs where once you're working you're going to be king for life
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[Music] Rain Man David we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
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[Music] the syndicate.com yeah thank you you've been doing you said five shows a week
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lately your voice is shot I your voice is starting to go so I asked you if you'd moderate and you thankfully said
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yes I've got the energy I missed last week I enjoyed listening to you guys with uh BG great episode sorry I
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couldn't join but let's kick it off that's funny I still haven't watched the episode that I missed you're not
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interested he's like I'm not on the show I'm not interested I've got enough time
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to participate I don't really have time to watch it the truth is sax why don't you admit to everyone that where you're
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in a show you probably watch it four or five times all right so let's kick this off
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obviously you guys recorded right before the Wagner group attempted coup or potential coup or theorized coup began
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last week so sax you kind of sent out a text saying the show is already stale because you know kind of missed that uh
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that news cycle by publishing right after it started but you recorded right before so let's do
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just a quick recap of what happened with Russia Ukraine and particularly it's Wagner
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Wagner group Rebellion last Friday the Wagner Group which is a Russian paramilitary organization led by
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Evgeni pregosian launched what seemed like an armed Insurrection against Russia Wagner had occupied portions of
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rostov vondan a city of over a million people a regional capital and headquarters of Russia's Southern
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military District before setting off towards Moscow and then abruptly stopping I think about 200 kilometers
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before reaching Moscow City at that point there was supposedly a negotiation the president of Belarus got involved
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and pregosian decided to step down Putin said I'm not going to persecute or I'm not going to prosecute you for these
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crimes he was given immunity and it was announced that all the members of the Wagner group were given the option of
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returning home or joining the Russian military and the Wagner group was going to be dissolved sax maybe you can kind
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of give us your summary of the events that took place and then we'll talk a little bit about
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the interpretation of what we think this means for the conflict in Ukraine well you're right that this Rebellion took
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place just after we dropped our last episode and so everybody both on Twitter and in the comments was dunking on me
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for my take on last week's episode that the much hyped Ukrainian counter-offensive was was not succeeding
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that it was in fact failing I think there's abundant evidence for that which hasn't changed even CNN had written an
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article basically supporting the idea that the counter-offensive was not living up to what had been promised and
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so everyone was in the comments saying that my take had basically aged like milk and this armed Rebellion or Mutiny
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by fregosian was evidence that the Russian regime was about to collapse that Russia was
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in fact on the verge of Civil War and you saw the exact same people who had oversold the counter-offensive now
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overselling this Mutiny as something that would bring down the Russian regime and and the war and of course
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that that did not happen it was certainly a highly unusual event and I've read takes now from every
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different corner of the internet about what it was and what took place you have people speculating that this is all
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staged I do not believe that I do believe that it was an Insurrection or Mutiny by progosian I think the trigger
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for it was the fact that his Wagner organization was being merged in with the ministry of defense and the regular
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Russian army and his men were all being made to sign contracts with the ministry
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of defense that would have resulted in a giant loss of income and status for pregosian simultaneously for months now
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he's been criticizing the ministry of Defense specifically the the minister of defense shoigu and the
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Chief general of the general staff gerasimov so he's been vocally critical of them and I think that this basically
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erupted into a mutiny by him where he basically tried to leverage his position like you said he marched what they now
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think are about 8 000 men which is about a quarter of Wagner into rostov on Don he then took the ministry headquarters
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and sent about three thousand of his men on a convoy to Moscow I think that although this is probably best described
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as a mutiny I think that it did have coup optionality to it I think that pagosian was seeking to find out how
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much support Putin had and who might join him and he had put out a number of statements that I think from the Russian
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regime's point of view could be described as seditious that morning and he there's a lot of
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evidence that he staged this attack on his base he claimed that there was a missile attack by the ministry of
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defense and that's what launched this March for justice and in his comments he was careful not to criticize Putin
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directly but he had a lot to say about Ministry defense and the overall conduct of the war and it was I think harshly
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critical indirectly of of Putin and I think he was looking to see who might support him
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and what happened is that on the way to Moscow during this Convoy nobody supported him in fact all the statements
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came out from the other generals including sir vegan including all the regional governors
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of members of the Duma and other important figures in Russian society and there wasn't a single person willing to
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publicly support for Goshen and that's when Putin went on TV called this basically an act of treason and a stab
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in the back and at that point I think progressions options were pretty limited and he basically took a deal
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that was brokered by lukashenko in which he would go into Exile in Belarus in exchange for basically being allowed to
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live that was basically the deal that was ultimately cut and so I think where things stand today is that although I
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think this was an embarrassment and a black eye for the Russian regime it never looks good for regime to have any
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kind of mutiny or insurrection and I think that it does raise questions that poon's now gonna have to answer to
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his various allies and supporters about how stable his regime is I think ultimately Putin has ended up in a place
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of consolidating Russian Society behind him like I said there were no power centers that supported this Mutiny they
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all rallied to Putin's defense and the people of Russia even though Ferguson is a popular figure being kind of a war
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hero from the Battle of bakmut the the Russian Society supported Putin I think he's at something like 80 percent poll
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numbers so I think where are things well like Lovato Center which is an independent polling Agency for example
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these are not the Russian regime's own numbers would you say in a poll that you don't support Putin
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well I don't know how levada Center what their methodology is but these numbers when the numbers are bad are cited by
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Western sources but there are other forms of evidence too you may have seen this video that went viral over the past
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few days of this song that's now the number one chart Buster in in Russia where it's this very patriotic Russian
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song where they're basically singing I am Russian that's sort of the main chorus Nick can you pull up the song I'd
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like to see this please coming at you 95.5 I love Russia oh my God this is some serious propaganda
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wow yeah [Music] yeah I mean that looks like a pretty good party if you look up the the lyrics to the
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song the English translation of the lyrics the gist of it is I I'm basically proud to be a Russian and I don't care
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who doesn't like it that's basically the the lyrics of it how do you get invited
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to that party I got so many jokes I'm not gonna make them I know you gotta be careful be
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careful here folks you gotta be careful here why it looks like a fun party it's a catchy song
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I mean I love to dress up and show up tell me where to show up Putin I think the point here is that Russian Society
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is United behind the state and wanting to fight this war and I think that part of the reason why Ferguson's Mutiny was
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so oversold as an imminent coup that would bring about the collapse of the Putin regime and of the Russian war
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effort and of their front line is because at least since the beginning of this war we've had this narrative that
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if we applied enough pressure to Russia that there'd be a palace Intrigue and a palace coup and that liberal forces
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inside of Russia would rise up and topple the dictator Putin and basically get them out of this war and I think
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what's happened is fairly predictable but it's the opposite of that which is the Russian people are rallying around
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the flag and rallying around Putin the war leader and they are a patriotic people just like the ukrainians and I
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think both these countries that both the Russians and the ukrainians are proud people and I think they're in a fight to
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the death and I think that both countries okay regardless as existential and we have basically stuck ourselves in
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the middle of this fight to the death between these two countries and I don't see this working out very well okay so
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look I I will make an admission I consider myself a modestly well-read person modestly well-informed I had
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never heard of the Wagner group or pregosian prior to this coup attempt last week Jay Cal had you guys heard of
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this person before and the Wagner group yeah yeah oh well maybe I'm an idiot or I'm just
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not interested I think what was so surprising was like how out of the blue the story seemed to be last week that
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there was this disagreement between this person that commanded this paramilitary
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organization who then turned around against Putin and stood up against him and marched back towards Moscow and it
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felt to me like it came a little bit out of the blue and was such like a a weird
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kind of shocking event did it feel kind of like that to you guys that there was surprising instability and the
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surprising potential Revolution happening locally I think stepping back here and just looking at the news cycle
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obviously it I don't think many people expected this this was a wild card and so people could be humble in you know
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their belief of like how much they actually understand about what's going on there
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the Russian soldiers are not in favor of this war this is a war that's very unpopular in Russia actually and for the
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Ukraine having been invaded by Russia they're fighting for their land and they're gonna they are much more
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motivated I wouldn't believe any of this propaganda but this is a bit of a raw shock test everybody on the left got on
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Twitter and said this is the end of Putin everybody's gonna rise up in the streets and they overplayed that you
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know angle of the story and then of course the right or people who are pro-russian or anti the West backing
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this war are going to take the other side Freeburg they're going to take the side of
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you know oh everybody loves Russia 80 of people are voting for this it's ridiculous to think that anybody in
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Russia is going to answer do you like Putin do you support Putin on a survey can you imagine a Putin's a
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murderous dictator who kills all of his enemies and he controls through violence
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nobody's answering a survey correctly this you know top song is complete propaganda Putin has control of the
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entire media apparatus there with this showed actually if you step back and you look at you go to the party
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though if you were invited well I mean are there going to be potential LPS there
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last week it's just a joke folks but stepping back if you look at modern day dictators they
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tend to stay in power for about three decades Putin's in his third and uh I think we're gonna see in uh the
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next 10 years Putin lose power and he's going to be out of power and when we look back on it it's going
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to be one of two causes it's going to be either cancer which you know the speculation is has had cancer and that's
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why he disappears from View because he might be getting treatment and we'll look back on us that the end
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of his power will be and his control of Russia which he controlling these controlling through violence and fear of
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violence the threat of violence is exhausting you have to be paranoid and that's why it generally doesn't last
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that long especially compared to the west where we have a democracy and people last about a half decade
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he will will look back on his end which will be in the next 10 years either through cancer or through his invasion
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of Ukraine this is the biggest blunder he's ever made and and this is a really crazy sign that somebody would actually
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attempt or even float a coup is insane he's murdered every single person who has ever even
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challenges Authority in a minor way the fact that his one of his right hand men this is one of his tight Inner Circle
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the fact that one of the people in his tight Inner Circle would actually start heading towards Moscow is insane so to
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say this wasn't a big deal and Putin's you know now Consolidated power and everybody's in the street dancing
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this is just simply not true I never said it wasn't a big deal I wasn't talking about you I was talking about
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the mids on Twitter I never mentioned your name I think that um your point J Cal at the beginning that this doesn't
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really seem to change anyone's point of view on the Outlook your point of view sounds like it's the same as it was a
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week ago sacked your point of view is probably the same as it was a week ago I think there are a couple of takeaways
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here first of all they've had polling of opinion in Russia for a long time and like I said when the
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polls go the way that the Western sources want no one questions their accuracy again I don't know exactly the
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methodology but levada Center is an independent pollster that Western Publications do trust I hear them repeat
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it over and over again and you know by their methodology which I assume hasn't changed I think Putin's popularity
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before the war is around 65 percent now they're showing it at about 83 percent Jason you may not like the war and you
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know I certainly don't like them nobody likes the war but I I think it is simply
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a fact that the Russian people have rallied around the flag and they do support this war and and Putin as the
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leader now I do think he has egg on his face here from this pagosian Uprising in
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terms of did I see this coming no I didn't have this on my bingo card I don't think anybody else did either
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however did I know who provision is certainly I mean I've been tracking progosian statements
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since around February he's been vocally criticizing the ministry of Defense specifically shoigu and jarasimov in
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increasingly insubordinate and you could argue even seditious ways I'm really kind of surprised in a way that he
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wasn't dealt with before this and I'm sure that the Kremlin is kicking itself for probably not dealing with it sooner
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but in terms of why he stole alive I think that Putin had a really tough decision to make about you quash this
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Rebellion completely which would have led to horrific images of you know violence potentially in Moscow or
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Russians and Russians killing Russians that might have actually led the the Russian front to question itself or
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collapse so I think he did the expedient thing which is he cut a deal he got lukashenko to help broker and he cut a
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deal and I think at the end of the day I think that he made the cool-headed decision that was in his and in Russian
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interest which was to avoid this to getting to the point of a bloody Insurrection okay any um any point of
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view shift for you coming out of the pregosian event of the last week on Russia Ukraine I mean I want to know how
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much he got paid to stop marching towards Moscow yeah I mean it is like I mean it must have been
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it must have been a lot not bad for a guy that was what Putin's caterer a few years ago right he started
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a catering business I spent nine years in jail this guy's life been nine years in jail it's like The Sopranos he went
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to jail for nine years for selling illegal hot dogs or something and all of a sudden I mean I got just paid billions
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of dollars to basically stop his paramilitary group from taking over one of the largest countries in the world
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it's the largest I mean nuclear Arsenal in the world yeah just so you know who this guy is I mean
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he he really is the street Thug that Putin is always accused of being he was a street dog he did go to jail
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he was one of these guys who came up in Russia as a businessman when to be a businessman you had to be so tough
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businessmen were getting murdered left and right by gangsters you almost had to be a gangster yourself apparently he
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made some money in the supermarket chain business and that led him to create a catering business which brought him to
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Putin's attention and he started catering for the Kremlin he's sometimes called Putin's Chef I don't think he was
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a chef himself he was the guy who owned he owned the business and then from there he was given the license to create
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this PMC this private uh military corporation Bogner group he wasn't the only founder
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of it he had a co-founder who was actually the military man behind it but Wagner became this this group of
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mercenaries who do all sorts of business in Africa mainly where they are working
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on behalf of governments there to protect mineral resources or oil wells all sorts of things a Sopranos
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Captain who would he be like Phil leotardo just like 20 years in jail comes out I think it's sort of like John
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Gotti going against Michael Corleone yeah I think that Putin is sort of the very cold right rational guy with
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everything in his head who's very calculated it doesn't reveal much right more like a Michael Corleone whereas I
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think that is emotional erratic he's been saying these statements for months here which I don't see how they lose
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constantly Loose Cannon and the crazy thing though is is that what you saw on Twitter and social media was
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unrestrained Glee really delirium over the idea that pagosian my topple Putin and become the custodian of Russia's
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thousands of nuclear weapons yeah and you know so my comment on this whole thing is be careful what you wish for
00:20:27
why in the world would Americans want that we'd be jumping out of the frying pan Into the Fire you know I've been
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saying since the beginning of the war that this fantasy that Putin is going to be toppled by a palace goo and you're
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getting a replacement with navalny or something like that we're going to get Gorbachev 2.0 I said that was always
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unrealistic and what you're much more likely to end up with is an even worse dictator or possible or a hardliner and
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I think that is what would happen if Ferguson had taken over I think would have been much worse for the West the
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final point is what's the takeaway from here is I think this is going to put more pressure on Putin to conduct the
00:21:02
war in a more violent way I I know that people already think that the war is horrible and violent but Putin has been
00:21:08
criticized by hardliners on his right for basically making the war a special military operation instead of an all-out
00:21:15
war and progosian I think expected to find more support among the sort of ultra nationalists in Russia and among
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the military who have been critical of Putin for waging the war in what they consider to be too half-hearted or an
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incomplete way they would like to see this declared to be a war they would like to see the full mobilization of
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Russian society and this is the problem that I see now is that I think Putin already knew but this has to underscore
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for him that this war is existential for him personally if he loses it's the end
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of not only his regime but probably his life in Russia and I think he's going to
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do whatever it takes to win this war and I think you could see now over the next
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few months a full mobilization in Russia and I think that this could lead us to the next point of escalation in this war
00:22:01
that is if this Ukrainian counteroffensive actually is successful on some level right now it is it is not
00:22:06
succeeding so there's no reason there's no reason for Putin to do that but if if
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this counter offensive succeeds you will see the next level of escalation the fact you did a great job stringing six
00:22:15
points together I think my key takeaway is which is now 18 points you've made so
00:22:21
you can retire for the rest of the show my key takeaway from your series of statements however
00:22:26
is an important one which is to watch the potential escalation driven by Putin here
00:22:31
any wrap up otherwise I'm going to move forward you know go ahead thinking about this
00:22:36
like there's a famous Sun Tzu quote the Supreme Art of War is to subdue the enemy without fighting
00:22:43
this is a big mistake and we need to make sure that we don't get into a war with Taiwan and China and China over
00:22:51
Taiwan so okay we have to avoid these things and then that's what and I are in alignment Sun Tzu calacanus we heard it
00:22:57
here first let's uh move forward with peace I can only hope that the conflict ends soon as I've always said I realized
00:23:05
over the last week how little I know about the Russian military conflict with Ukraine and I appreciate
00:23:12
Sexes contributions super helpful I went to Cal UC Berkeley 1997 fall in 97 and it was the last year
00:23:22
that Cal had affirmative action Admissions and I remember at that time there was a big case a guy named Baki
00:23:30
was rejected by the University of California Davis Medical School and he alleged reverse discrimination in 1974
00:23:36
and sued the University of California and eventually it became a landmark U.S Supreme Court case Regents of the
00:23:43
University of California versus Baki and in 1995 the UC Regents voted to eliminate affirmative action
00:23:50
so the year that I was at Cal I think was the last year of affirmative action Admissions and it's obviously been a
00:23:57
pretty hot topic here in California for the past you know 25 uh 30 years this morning the Supreme Court ruled on
00:24:08
two separate cases regarding using race as an admissions criteria in college admissions and the votes were six to
00:24:17
three against affirmative action in the University of North Carolina case in six
00:24:21
to two against affirmative action in the Harvard case katanji Brown Jackson recused herself
00:24:26
because she previously served on Harvard's Board of overseers all the conservative as their you know kind of
00:24:32
characterized judges voted to strike down affirmative action and all the as their characterized liberal judges voted
00:24:38
to keep it both of these cases were filed in 2014 by a group called students for fair admissions
00:24:43
and effectively the court said that at Harvard at UNC the schools were systematically discriminating against
00:24:51
Asian Americans in violation of civil rights laws by using uh their race as a as a system for for profiling excluding
00:24:59
and trying to be more inclusive of a more diverse and racially diverse set of applicants so tomorrow I'd love
00:25:07
your read I guess on the surprise or this was an accept expected case I think Saxon I mentioned this before but I
00:25:15
think we both expected this to happen I think it's probably important to maybe set up a more practical explainer
00:25:26
Friedberg so Nick if you want to just throw up that image that I just sent you we can sort
00:25:32
of explain the Genesis of the lawsuit so what you can see here is admit rates into Harvard
00:25:42
by race ethnicity but also by academic decile yeah and so what it basically shows in a
00:25:49
nutshell is an African-American student in the 40th percentile of the academic index is actually more likely to get in
00:25:58
than an Asian student at the 100th percentile and so that at the core is sort of sorry
00:26:04
that means that means that the Asian American student had better scores than 99 of other applicants and still didn't get
00:26:15
in right right so you have to go back I think to 2003 when essentially what the Supreme Court
00:26:25
said is like look we're going to allow this affirmative action stuff to last roughly for another 25 years
00:26:32
but by that point we expect that the work that needed to be done will have been done again this is them saying this
00:26:39
not me and so I think what today does is actually quite important not just for what it
00:26:47
means for universities but also what it means for private Enterprises so just to take a second on
00:26:53
this I think what happens today is the pretty obvious stuff which is that you have to change University
00:27:00
applications you have to change all of the admissions profiling all of the stuff that you would normally do
00:27:08
you probably I'm not even sure if you can even have a box where you can declare race maybe you can or cannot I
00:27:13
don't even know but all of that changes today so then the question is well what's the
00:27:18
first order derivative what changes next and I called someone who's a pretty well
00:27:23
known constitutional supreme court lawyer on this and The Next Step is probably going to be around Athletics
00:27:33
based and legacy-based admissions so Athletics based admissions are pretty obvious which is you don't really have
00:27:39
great grades but you're really stupendous at a sport that's important to that school
00:27:46
so then they let you in because they want to compete inside sport for whatever reason
00:27:51
the Legacy one is even more prickly which is not you're kind of a dummy but your parents are rich and or went to the
00:27:57
school before and so then they let you in as well and his thought on this is that those things
00:28:07
will go away because if you can't use race-based admissions to kind of balance the scales then it'll become pretty
00:28:16
quick where somebody launches a legacy-based lawsuit or an athletic based bias lawsuit and wins that as well
00:28:23
so that's the first order derivative so you know the thought are those because those aren't constitutionally
00:28:31
protected whereas equality based on race but it becomes a huge headache for these
00:28:36
schools right and so you're going to be fighting these admission standards constantly
00:28:42
changing and so if you're not going to let you know a bunch of poor minority black and brown
00:28:48
kids in but you're letting in the Sons and Daughters of Rich important people I think that that's going to paint that
00:28:56
school in a very bad light so I think that's so important white typically white typically white although one would
00:29:03
say the great thing over the last couple of decades is there have been a lot of minorities that have gotten into these
00:29:09
very elite schools which means this their kids would be the first generation that's eligible for legacy but you're
00:29:15
gonna wipe that away so I think from a just a social stigma perspective and I have a solution for this which I'll get
00:29:22
to at the end for those people but so I think that's the first order derivative the second order derivative is now what
00:29:27
lawsuits get launched and what are the implications for private companies right so right now this affects any
00:29:34
institution that receives Federal funding and that includes all the universities so there's no private or
00:29:39
public university really except for a handful that don't take this money so they'll all have to do this
00:29:44
but the really important question after that will be what happens to companies like apple or Facebook or Exxon who have
00:29:52
race-based programs to try to attract African-American Engineers or Hispanic chemists whatever whatever the program
00:30:02
is that you want to come up with will those get challenged and will those companies have to change and my friends
00:30:10
thoughts on that were that yes that those would also change and that's going to have a really important impact on
00:30:16
private Enterprise and how they approach this stuff and how Dei stuff works and frankly Downstream how ESG works because
00:30:23
all these ESG check boxes now some of them will actually become illegal right so I think the importance of decision
00:30:30
can't be really understated it's going to the changes will be slow and then they'll be fast they'll first touch
00:30:38
higher ed but then I think they'll touch private Enterprise and so I think it was
00:30:41
a it was a very important decision in America that just happened what is what is the right ethics and and values
00:30:51
I mean what do you guys I guess we could just do this around the table Jacob maybe you kick it off
00:30:56
should we I mean from your point of view do you think that values should include
00:31:02
racial diversity in Admissions and universities yeah this is like the ultimate or is the values about equality
00:31:10
of opportunity for everyone regardless of race right you're asking the exact right question I think that's the
00:31:17
world's greatest moderator but yeah doing a solid job so far and this creates a lot of cognitive dissonance
00:31:22
for people right because you you really want to believe that the world is a meritocracy
00:31:28
and uh you know if you were to take other Pursuits in the world you'd never say like we should let race gender
00:31:36
age affect people's performance in the 100 yard dash or their their compensation at a company right all of
00:31:43
that should be based on achievement and so there is a question on what achievements should be taken into
00:31:50
account when you apply to a school and it's pretty obvious the Legacy thing you know is
00:31:57
you know a back door into these schools but we want to feel like we're also making progress because listen the world
00:32:04
has been unfair the world was built on slavery and our country has you know it's only 150 years
00:32:12
past that and Civil Rights Act was what 1964 or 65 like we've we've we really want to see everybody achieve here so I
00:32:20
think you have to pause for a second and say well if the goal is you want to see
00:32:25
you know black Americans perform better and I think that's the the underlying concern here
00:32:33
and it is based on the legacy of America well how do you do that and I think we're looking way too far down in the
00:32:41
educational pipeline the solution here is really Child Care the solution here is Nursery schools
00:32:46
pre-k elementary school education and those things need competition and that's where
00:32:51
people fall behind to be looking at this at the end of the academic journey is I
00:32:56
think crazy so you know when I'm president I'm going to have 365 day a year you know child care and
00:33:05
Pre-K and that's where we should if we really want to try to make up for some wrongs in the history of this country
00:33:11
and try to have better outcomes we need competition in schools which means probably breaking some of
00:33:16
these unions and giving people vouchers and choice and then we have to invest more in the earliest stages of Education
00:33:23
and I think everybody wants to see a better system here Dei to chamat's point is
00:33:30
it is illegal to hire people based on race gender any of those criteria obviously and the Dai programs are
00:33:38
trying to fill more applicants so their goal typically in the way they don't break the law is to just try to in their
00:33:46
best cases find more applicants and but even that does feel like there's many times in life when
00:33:56
um people will say things in Corporate America like we have too many white guys in this these positions we need we
00:34:02
cannot hire another white guy so the reality of Dei that I've seen up close and personal when I was at AOL I've told
00:34:08
the story before somebody said to me there's no way for us to make you an EVP you have to stay
00:34:14
at SVP and I said why is that like I'm doing all this EVP level work and they said because you're a white guy
00:34:19
and the entire company is white guys at EVP and we cannot add another white guy there but we'll just give you the same
00:34:25
bonus compensation so don't worry about it and so there's all kinds of games being
00:34:29
played here but I think it's great that we're having this conversation right it's a hard conversation for America to
00:34:33
have for me the I've talked about this in the past I've always had concern when we make the shift away from
00:34:44
equality of opportunity to a quality of outcome because we all have this objective that
00:34:49
we want to see everyone have equal rights to success in some way in the United States the question is at what
00:34:57
point do you move Beyond opportunity where everyone is given an equal opportunity in this country
00:35:04
to invest themselves in transforming their own lives versus a quality of outcome where regardless of
00:35:13
how much you do how much effort or your trials you were given the same as everyone else and that ends up looking a
00:35:21
lot like socialism and it's very concerning because I think it limits progress and opportunity for everyone
00:35:26
the real challenge with this particular topic is college admissions about outcome or is about opportunity
00:35:34
it's outcome in the sense that you spend 12 years going to elementary school and
00:35:39
high school and working hard to get yourself into college so it's the outcome of all of that
00:35:44
effort and some people aren't given the opportunity to have success during those
00:35:49
12 years and you know and it is an outcome what do you think we should do and it's an opportunity
00:35:56
because it's about going to college because without having a great College cycle you may have a more tougher time
00:36:00
getting into a into the workforce so it that is why it's a hard value question for me I I don't have a great answer on
00:36:06
this but I'm just pointing out it's a lot like the abortion argument where both sides have some
00:36:14
value-oriented point of view that feels like it's negating the other person's point of view
00:36:19
but at the end of the day they're both coming from either this is an opportunity or it's an outcome decision
00:36:24
and that's what makes it so challenging the National Bureau of economic research
00:36:27
did a study in 2019 that they published and what they found was that 43 so 4 3 43 of white students admitted to Harvard
00:36:38
were athletes or Legacy students or children of faculty and staff or had a relative that
00:36:48
were donors to the school 43 wait it's rigged and then they found on top of that that 75 of those white
00:36:56
students admitted from those four categories would have been rejected if they had been treated as a normal
00:37:02
applicant so I think for all the people that are looking at all the black and brown kids that may not get into a place
00:37:09
like Harvard if you don't look at these other categories it is a it's a bit of a gross Injustice
00:37:16
quite honestly so I think that these institutions have to evolve and if you're going to be forced to be
00:37:21
meritocratic then actually be meritocratic and by the way I actually am fine with legacies and donors but I
00:37:28
think what should happen is you should just publish a rate card and you should make it hyper transparent and so I love
00:37:34
it for the rich guy who's got an idiot son or daughter let's just be upfront and honest with everybody it costs 50
00:37:40
million dollars to get into Stanford it costs 80 million dollars to get into Harvard we all know these numbers so we
00:37:46
should just publish them you should pay the price and be done with it and for Harvard and Stanford and Yale and all
00:37:52
these schools having an extra 10 or 20 dummies but an extra two or three billion may be a
00:37:57
reasonable trade-off but at least it would be transparent and fair right this is an important free market question as
00:38:03
well because these are private institutions they're privately funded not if they take federal dollars or not
00:38:08
agreed yes but if they take federal dollars they're not and then it becomes a government processing it's government
00:38:13
influence it's a state school all those is there a separate category here just like country clubs or any private
00:38:20
membership club where the members of the club get to decide who they want to admit to the club and is that
00:38:26
Un-American and should the Supreme Court and should our Constitution have a role
00:38:30
in defining how private institutions make decisions about who gets it no Harvard could absolutely return all the
00:38:36
federal funding the billions of dollars a year they get that's totally reasonable then they even decide to just
00:38:40
focus on Legacy admits that's totally reasonable it's within their rights sacks like we got it I know that I know
00:38:48
that you used up your quote your speaking quota already well yeah I didn't want to I didn't want to butt in
00:38:52
it give him four on my points you get four of Jake house minutes go ahead so yeah two points I guess so on the
00:39:01
Legacy thing I agree with jamas that we should get rid of it it's not meritocratic I think that if they did
00:39:07
publish a rate card that would be more honest but they would be too embarrassed and ashamed to do that but I think
00:39:12
making that argument exposes the hypocrisy of it I've already told my kids I'm not
00:39:16
helping them get into college so they're going to do it on their own and so look
00:39:20
I think by the way that's the best gift you can give kids yeah that that perspective sorry go ahead sex so that's
00:39:27
that's Point number one fully agreed on on the Legacy thing with respect to the decision itself that I'm sorry can I
00:39:32
just clarify that do you believe that the Legacy thing should be like in federal law I mean is that a government
00:39:38
thing or do you think that that's how those institutions should behave because those are different I mean I'm asking
00:39:44
are you suggesting that the law should be involved that the government should be involved I don't know if it's a legal
00:39:48
thing because I don't know how to implement that law but um I think it's something they should stop doing one way
00:39:52
or another maybe it should be a law but I think it should stop so I think that's
00:39:55
important Legacy thing for privacy for private membership so just let me just double click on that do you think that
00:40:02
should extend to private membership clubs like country clubs as well that they shouldn't be allowed to decide who
00:40:06
they let in and don't let in what makes it different that it's Harvard is it because it's education versus any other
00:40:11
private membership because it takes Federal funding for some person to be able to get into a
00:40:20
school they don't deserve to get into just because their parent went there or just because their parents wrote a check
00:40:26
that's unreasonable and if they don't take Federal funding these schools take so much Federal funding that they're
00:40:31
quasi-public institutions even the private ones so that's the distinction that's the distinction for you just to
00:40:36
be clear yeah and also there is a strong meritocracy opportunity argument on this
00:40:43
and I think it's why that whole parents College admissions Scandal was was such a big deal is that for a lot of people
00:40:50
in this country the ability to have your kids Advance themselves by being the first to get into college or going to
00:40:57
college or going to a better college that is a big part of creating opportunity in this country so for
00:41:02
people to try and defraud that I think create a huge backlash so look I think that the Legacy thing just needs to end
00:41:10
one way or another I don't know exactly what the right legal implementation is I have two questions
00:41:17
for the panel number one should you be able to say by geography Hey listen we're Harvard over Stanford we want to
00:41:23
have a representation of people from around the world so we're gonna you know have the top three students from each
00:41:29
country or you know or by population however you do it you know mathematically come in so a little bit of geography
00:41:37
because I did hear from one of these coaches that cost like six figures to get your kids into the college they said
00:41:43
the best thing you can do is like move to Kentucky you know and then Harvard and Stafford
00:41:50
are looking to get a certain number of students from each state I don't know how true that is but they said that's
00:41:54
like one of the the top ways to do it and then well do you remember Jason just to build on your point I don't know if
00:41:58
you guys remember but a few years ago the the in fashion thing to do was to learn to play squash and I remember all
00:42:05
these parents telling me that and they had kids that were older than my kids and they were they were hiring full-time
00:42:11
squash coaches because apparently squash was like yeah it was all angle shots yeah I think like stop with the angle
00:42:19
shooting guys yes the gun should go off you should run the race and your time is
00:42:24
your time and you should go to whatever the best school is that you deserve to get into based on your academic ability
00:42:29
now going back the big problem and I think Jason you really nailed it on the head
00:42:35
trying to fix it with affirmative action at the University is still quite unfair in the sense that
00:42:42
there are so many black and brown kids I think with tons of potential that don't
00:42:45
even get there and so the real question is what are you doing at the grade school and at the
00:42:50
high school and at the preschool so that you actually get more of these kids to the starting line because fixing
00:42:57
it when they're 18 I think is a little too late yeah right fixing it for 300 three four and five years old that's
00:43:05
when they deserve and need all the help in the world to yourself that's why we need school choice we need Charter
00:43:10
Schools we need to break the Monopoly that the unions have over the schools running it running for their own benefit
00:43:16
if you Define institutional racism as conditions that trap people on conditions of poverty across Generations
00:43:23
I'd say the abysmal quality of our public schools are number one number one two and three and the reason is because
00:43:30
there's no competition and the unions run it for their own benefit how long do they shut down these schools for in
00:43:35
California because they didn't want to work because they're afraid don't know don't see the c word we just got a label
00:43:41
enabled for the benefit of kids and it wasn't even medically necessary that was a
00:43:48
benefit they saw for themselves yeah Jacob you come you come from a family yep that were members of unions because
00:43:55
they worked for fire for police yeah um is that right yeah we speak negatively about the effects of
00:44:02
the teachers unions on our public education system and it I I think it's absolutely correct
00:44:08
but how do you share the point of view from the other side if you're a teacher and you're a member of the union and the
00:44:14
union takes care of you what's the argument yeah sure to say this Union is damaging public education and the
00:44:22
teacher that's working in the union and a member of the union says this is necessary for my livelihood to protect
00:44:27
me for my benefit help us share the point of view because we all have the strongly held point of
00:44:33
view that the unions are destroying and eroding public education people have the right
00:44:39
to form unions but what we all do is we are forced to be consumers of one educational product
00:44:46
because of how we pay taxes we pay taxes in yeah I think in my in California we each pay sixteen thousand dollars into
00:44:52
the educational system and so if you're a parent you should get that 16k back and be able to choose what you do with
00:44:58
it so there's competition so the unions can have protection but there still should be competition for these services
00:45:04
and I I think there are two separate issues yeah there's one other thing which is
00:45:11
I just want to give a shout out to a non-profit that I support called smash Academy smash.org it's done by Mitch and
00:45:18
Freda Kapoor the Mitch Kapoor founded Lotus one two three if you're uh under the age of 40 you might not know
00:45:27
and what they do is they realize that a lot of the students who do get into good
00:45:31
colleges it turns out a lot of the black and brown students they get accepted and
00:45:35
they're behind in math and so what smash has done is they have a three-year program
00:45:40
and I go speak at it sometimes and I donate money to it and I encourage you to do the same they have this intensive
00:45:46
summer program so before you go to college tomorrow if you were one of those students
00:45:51
you know you might get into college and then they drop out or even worse they switch from a stem degree to a non-stem
00:45:58
degree because they're two years behind on stem or a year behind on stem and so the Kapoor has found this like little
00:46:05
opportunity to kind of catch people up and I think that's what we have to do we have to address this much earlier and
00:46:11
not put a Band-Aid on it yeah in the system the ivy league system um you know needs to well it's not
00:46:19
societies right I'm sure it's not just pick on Harvard but it's like it's like the elite institutions which we talk
00:46:24
about institutions okay all institutions that receive federal funding they need to take a deep look in the mirror and
00:46:29
say are we doing the best thing for society the second question I had for the panel was well I'm not getting the
00:46:34
feeling by the way but yeah but our Pure academics the best way to accept people
00:46:39
into a college or should there be some blend of it like putting Sports aside because that's an obvious one but you
00:46:45
know is there's academics but then there's also creativity you know if you you might be terrible on your SATs test
00:46:51
and you might be an incredible virtuoso pianist so I think what is the criteria and making that criteria fair is what we
00:46:58
all want and it feels tremendously unfair my point of view is if the government is funding these schools then
00:47:06
the government certainly has to have a point of view on what's the reasonable model for admissions the government's
00:47:13
not funding the schools I Love A diversity in a Marketplace I love having different
00:47:19
schools having different admissions criteria that allow different people to find their path
00:47:25
through different institutions to your point Juilliard does not care perhaps as much what you did on you know your sat
00:47:34
and chemistry and art schools do not care as much how well you did in math and stem schools
00:47:43
don't care whether or not you want an art competition and I think that that's the important thing that we need to
00:47:48
preserve we need to preserve optionality for institutions to Define what sorts of
00:47:54
individuals they want to try and recruit and progress and train and get ready for
00:47:59
the workforce and the path in life that they then choose versus trying to create
00:48:03
a cookie cutter model for what the government says it's fair for everyone and as much as we can take Government
00:48:09
funding out of these institutions and out of these systems and give them the freedom to set their own admissions
00:48:14
criteria and create differential Educational Systems I think that's going to create the best diversity of a
00:48:21
Workforce and I'm I would kind of be more excited about that sort of an Institutional system than one that is
00:48:29
standardized by the government you know why that'll never happen because the profit motive of these
00:48:35
universities is really to be Shadow organizations for their endowments and the thing with endowments is that
00:48:42
the people that work there very much want to get paid and behave like profit generating organizations and I think
00:48:52
the issue is that if their sole job was to really fund the operational expenses of the University
00:49:02
then the endowments would be run very differently right like take again I just looked up on the internet but Harvard
00:49:08
has about the operating expenses are roughly five and a half billion dollars a year
00:49:14
but the revenues are about five and a half billion dollars a year right so if instead you had to basically fund you
00:49:20
know there was essentially no Revenue per se right there's there is very little tuition and you didn't take any
00:49:25
federal funding you'd have to come up with five billion dollars a year so you just basically take that as a draw
00:49:32
from your endowment the endowment would be run very differently it would be a don't lose money endowment
00:49:38
that would generate very low Vol returns I think the problem with that is that that's not how the
00:49:45
endowment at Harvard works they wouldn't necessarily make risk seeking investments in things like
00:49:51
private equity and hedge funds and Venture Capital into the extent they did they would just make much much fewer
00:49:55
much much smaller or both so I think what you're saying could be possible but the problem are probably the
00:50:03
endowments at these universities okay well 53 billion dollars moving Harvard's endowment now so yeah it would be ten
00:50:10
percent can anyone tell me who the largest real estate owner is in San Francisco
00:50:14
you're not working on the internet oh no I know I know it's that Art Institute The Academy of Art University I knew
00:50:21
this because they uh kept buying things and using them I think she used all the profit over the years to buy more real
00:50:28
estate and she accumulated the largest real estate portfolio yeah yeah yeah sorry who is she the founder I forgot
00:50:34
her name this is a for-profit university or a private or I mean a non-profit University yeah there's a lot of artists
00:50:41
that come out of Academy Art and they work in a lot of different Industries including industrial design including
00:50:46
animation is what I'm saying is it like RISD or is it like actually an art school oh no it's a great art school
00:50:52
yeah Academy of Art anyway let's keep going so look speaking of stem making a big pivot away from art
00:51:01
to AI a couple big news items you know the AI frenzy continues here in Silicon Valley all the way from early to growth
00:51:12
stage funding through to M A events we saw this week data Brits which is a privately held data infrastructure
00:51:20
company announced that they were acquiring Mosaic ml for 1.3 billion dollars that headline number is based on
00:51:27
a cash and stock purchase price where the value of the stock that was being used to acquire Mosaic ml
00:51:35
was based off of the last round's valuation for data bricks which was 38 billion dollars from a fundraising that
00:51:41
they did in 2021 so arguably the valuation should be lower and the overall purchase price could be
00:51:45
considered lower but that's besides the point Mosaic ml as you guys may remember
00:51:50
is a company I mentioned a number of episodes ago led by the founder of Nirvana which was
00:51:57
an early AI business that was acquired by Intel and then he started Mosaic ML and he offers
00:52:04
open source models and I shared the performance data of their most recent announcement on the show
00:52:10
a few weeks ago you know there's rumors I don't have any confirmed reports but there's rumors
00:52:16
that Mosaic ml saw their ARR grow from 1 million to 20 million dollars since January there was
00:52:23
other rumors that said they were only at 6 million of Revenue regardless databricks is paying a pretty hefty
00:52:28
premium and I think it begs the question what do data infrastructure database companies end up looking like in the
00:52:35
future if AI has to become part of the core infrastructure of every Enterprise and this is creating a big shift so Saks
00:52:42
as our Enterprise software investor expert maybe you can share with us what this means for the sector does
00:52:50
this buoy excitement for AI infrastructure startups does this change the investing landscape is it just
00:52:59
reinforcing what folks are already doing I think it's a reinforcement I mean the
00:53:04
space is probably the hottest Spate where you're talking about like AI infrastructure for Enterprises I think
00:53:08
it's probably the hottest space right now in in Venture Land we actually looked at this deal we had a small
00:53:14
allocation in our next round they had a term sheet for a series B emergence was actually an elite it and
00:53:21
this is Mosaic ml yeah yeah I don't know if I'm supposed to be telling you all this but yeah
00:53:29
it's not great this is why people see it in breaking news that a term sheet from
00:53:35
emergence to raise 50 million at 400 posts wow and we yeah and we were gonna have a small allocation in that and as I
00:53:43
recall the valuation was somewhere around 30 to 35 times ARR which actually is not that
00:53:50
insane for a very fast scoring company in a hot space so that implies about 10 million of ARR I don't remember the
00:53:57
exact figure but I think that's sort of the ballpark but growing very very quickly I mean up from like one or two
00:54:03
at the beginning of the year right so I actually understand why someone would want to acquire or invest in this
00:54:11
company like I said I think we wanted to invest and while we were sort of you know trying our best you didn't say
00:54:17
anything when I talked about him on the show a few weeks ago you were just sitting there mum's a word or actually I
00:54:21
knew that this deal was was basically in the works because the founder called us
00:54:26
up and he had already promised us a small allocation around Naveen did and he called up and said
00:54:31
actually I've got this deal so we're putting the round on hold and so I didn't think I should say anything
00:54:37
because obviously it was still ongoing but yeah we knew about this deal that was kind of coming down the pipe I
00:54:44
didn't know for sure that it would happen but but yeah we we heard it was in the ballpark of this like 1.2 1.3
00:54:49
billion dollar number which like you said because databricks is a private stock maybe it's only
00:54:55
10 or 750 or something like that who knows it's still a great deal but you know a lot of people are saying it's a
00:55:00
crazy deal I don't think it's a crazy deal because before this happened after Naveen signed the term sheet for the
00:55:07
series B an investor came over the top to invest at a 700 million dollar valuation wow so people were kind of
00:55:14
going crazy now I don't think that's necessarily a rational Behavior I think that's more of evidence of a Mania going
00:55:21
on but I think that what he got offered is obviously a fantastic deal and I think what it's evidence of is that
00:55:27
these big Enterprise infra companies are going to try and build an end-to-end tool chain here and I think Mosaic ml
00:55:35
had a very very important part of the tool set which is training up these models basically maximizing GPU
00:55:43
efficiency because gpus are basically the scarce item right now we have a GPU shortage and it's probably not going to
00:55:49
get better for a year or two if that so this is a very important part of the of the stack and I think it's probably a
00:55:57
smart acquisition for both yeah I mean remember snow snowflake which competes with data breaks also acquired Neva
00:56:04
which was founded by one of my colleagues a guy I work with uh and a new really great guy sweetheart for 150
00:56:10
million dollars last month that deal was announced and the pattern recognition that seems to emerge here is that if
00:56:16
you're in the data infrastructure business it seems like it's becoming critical to level up that it's not just
00:56:23
about storing and moving and manipulating data but the interpretation of data through models and the tooling
00:56:31
to build those models becomes a critical component think of all of these toolkits
00:56:36
that these software companies have to provide to their by software companies and it's a big leveling up that's
00:56:40
necessary which seems to me there's other companies out there like them that are also going to need to strap on tools
00:56:47
like this to make themselves competitive in this marketscape which means that there are
00:56:52
more Acquisitions still to come yeah Jacob you guys agree or have a different point of view looking at it it's a it's
00:57:00
a big number the headline number but I agree with Saks that the actual numbers half the number so if it was you know if
00:57:05
you look at the number of Engineers they had based on LinkedIn data and pitchbook
00:57:09
data probably 60 70 employees 80 employees and then 40 50 of them are Engineers so that puts it at 30 million
00:57:16
dollars per engineer and that's one way to look at these acquisitions and I think you know probably three to
00:57:25
ten million dollars per engineer for like really high-end Engineers is more the going price but if this is half that
00:57:31
amount because they bought it with Monopoly money in other words they're 2021 price for their company it's great
00:57:37
and then they get nailed it um Freeburg what's happening is this layer of uh natural language on top
00:57:45
of any service whether it's something as simple as Yelp or something as complicated as a giant financial company
00:57:53
with tons of transaction data being able to talk to it and understand it and then
00:57:59
have your machine learning team build tools so business owners don't have to hire data scientists the actual Business
00:58:06
Leaders can talk to the data and get back answers or just say hey tell me about our customers how have they
00:58:13
changed over the year and then hey that's pretty interesting tell me more about our customers and you know how are
00:58:19
they reacting to these three new products and you will get back in intelligence that previously was unable
00:58:29
to be accessed and so I was uh I was just at Sequoia yesterday with uh or two days ago with the latest seven graduates
00:58:38
from our accelerator we bring them to meet with sax and his team and bring them to meet with Sequoia and when we
00:58:43
were at Sequoia I realized that of the seven companies four of them would not have been
00:58:49
possible before these machine learning apis were available and open AI is but one there are now in the companies I'm
00:58:57
talking to they're they're trialing Freeburg on average six seven eight language models before they pick one and
00:59:03
they're not picking open AI every time putting that aside these businesses were not possible before this technology was
00:59:10
introduced and available via API in the last six to 12 months and I think there's a bunch of
00:59:15
businesses that economically would not work that now work I can give one example
00:59:22
there are countless meetings that are recorded over uh Zoom right think like a local school board
00:59:30
well nobody could ever make a database of all the discussions going on at local school boards and then analyze all that
00:59:37
but now because all of those are saved uh on zoom and they occur on zoom and they're available for public record you
00:59:44
can ingest every single one of those and then build a Bloomberg terminal of every
00:59:48
discussion happening at every school board everywhere in the United States and do that with chat GPT or any of the
00:59:56
language models and then get really great insights from it that would be too costly to transcribe at you know a
01:00:02
hundred dollars every hour to a normalize let alone to analyze and so I'm looking at
01:00:09
businesses as an investor what I'm looking at right now is businesses that were previously not economically viable
01:00:16
before this technology and then that are now economically viable if that makes sense and um I'm just looking at each
01:00:23
company under that lens right now and I'm finding a lot of interesting startups they seem to have that in
01:00:28
common similar news supporting this very quick Evolution further up the value stack so we were just talking about
01:00:36
these companies that are providing effectively tooling as infrastructure a little bit more up the value stack is
01:00:44
inflection AI which was started by Mustafa Suleiman and Reed Hoffman uh who was a co-founder while mistafa was
01:00:52
working with him as a Venture partner at Greylock but Mustafa as you guys know was the co-founder of
01:01:00
deepmind which Google bought for 400 million dollars really created the core of Google's AI capability and is
01:01:06
considered one of the kind of preeminent thought leaders and entrepreneurs built
01:01:10
that has built in this space he started inflection and the business just announced today
01:01:16
that they've just closed a 1.3 billion dollar funding round LED by Microsoft Reed Hoffman Bill Gates Eric Schmidt
01:01:22
Nvidia uh with an intention of building the largest AI cluster in the world 22 000 Nvidia h100s as part of
01:01:31
the build out but I think you've shared chamoth historically that these big funding rounds for these AI businesses
01:01:37
that haven't necessarily been launched the product yet don't make sense is this still you know
01:01:43
kind of reinforce your point and you know what's your read on on the inflection funding well the list price
01:01:50
of an h100 is about 30 odd thousand but the street price so it's very hard to get it so if you go to the if you go to
01:01:56
like eBay and try to buy an h100 it's like 40 or 45 000. so if you have a 22 000 cluster of
01:02:04
h100s that's about 900 million dollars of capex just that and then you know all the sundry stuff
01:02:12
around it call it roughly plus or minus a billion dollars and so of the one and a half billion
01:02:19
they've raised let's say a billion goes into building this 22 000 node cluster you have 500 million for SG a and so
01:02:27
what that leaves behind is basically two and a half billion of Enterprise value for their chatbot
01:02:33
so I don't know I mean I've never used Pi has anybody any of you guys used it do you guys know if it's good Jason I'm
01:02:40
sure you've experimented with it have you experimented with it or not really which one
01:02:43
pie that's what they're that's what their chat bot is called pipe yeah I think it's like api.com or something I think I
01:02:52
did try it once and it was not memorable Oh you mean po no not po no no no no personal one where you talk to it and I
01:03:04
say hey how are you doing and their concept is like you have this one relationship so it's like one chat
01:03:09
thread it's not kind of how I like to work with the I use threads and I share threads with my team so I'm not a fan of
01:03:16
this like you have one relationship with one assistant I think the thing is it's
01:03:19
interesting to note that very rarely when you invest money in the billions of dollars
01:03:26
does the capex or purchase of one specific form of equipment take up literally 25 of the Enterprise Value that's
01:03:36
atypical at least for a startup if you're if you're buying a fixed plant of a slow cash flow generating business
01:03:43
then maybe you know a bunch of that has some value so that's what stood out to me and all of these things Freeburg is
01:03:49
again increasingly this is all just a pass through to Nvidia it's probably in some ways a pass
01:03:57
through to the big cloud providers so whenever I see a chip maker and a cloud provider come together to put in a lot
01:04:02
of money it's essentially round-tripping cash they're giving the money which then
01:04:06
they use to buy their services and then you know you just you're just pumping Revenue so I hope it works wishing the
01:04:13
best but you know that's the that's what we just talked about where the infrastructure companies that are
01:04:18
increasingly looking like more commodity service providers if they don't up level with AI
01:04:25
tooling acquiring Mosaic ML and acquiring Neva do you think that that's an indication
01:04:34
of more emana to come and if so doesn't that justify The increased funding The increased valuation and the activity
01:04:43
that we're seeing in the early stage with some of these businesses I think for sure there's going to be more M A
01:04:47
and I think the valuations will be high not because these companies have a lot of Revenue yet but because it's very
01:04:52
strategic for these big infra companies to assemble the end to end tool chain I think we should explain to
01:04:58
folks what that means enterprise software companies provide software to businesses that are not traditionally
01:05:04
technology companies they also provide software to other businesses to help them build new tools to help them build
01:05:10
out their business so an Enterprise software company can sell to United Airlines or consult a Visa or consult a
01:05:15
Ford and that software can then be used by that company to build tools that are powered by the database or powered by
01:05:23
the data analytics or increasingly powered by AI tools and so they can build AI applications and AI
01:05:30
capabilities into their business whether it's United Airlines or Expedia or Visa
01:05:35
or whomever and that's why this these companies are so critical in terms of enabling the transformation of
01:05:41
Industries with AI tooling and and why you know getting AI tooling into their capability set is so critical right now
01:05:47
it's important to note though guys that whenever you have the emergence of a new
01:05:51
sector Sox I think you are right that M A goes up but it tends to be that the valuations
01:05:57
go down Peak M A froth happens at the beginning of the cycle when hype is at maximum and facts are at the minimum
01:06:06
and that's okay you know that's good for the startup it's marginally negative for
01:06:11
the existing shareholder of a large company and then over time it gets itself sorted out when the facts are
01:06:17
more obvious so yeah it's kind of like you guys remember when the optical networking craze oh my God had these
01:06:24
multi-billion dollar Acquisitions and where did they go they went they went nowhere they just disappeared we
01:06:30
actually have like a market map that we did that I think can explain this concept of a end-to-end tool chain so
01:06:35
this is a slide that our growth team shout out to Mike Robinson and chemical Borough they put this together in
01:06:43
preparation and part of the investment memo for Mosaic and I think to explain the point you were kind of making
01:06:49
Freeburg like why do Enterprises need the services one really simple way of thinking about it right now is that
01:06:57
every Enterprise would like to roll out its own chat GPT they would all like to have their own internal version of chat
01:07:03
GPT where their employees for example could ask questions and get answers that's where all the action is right now
01:07:09
every Enterprise would buy that tomorrow if it existed in the way sex yeah give an example the idea would
01:07:17
be that you know any employee in the company could ask questions to the AI model the way you can ask chat GPT
01:07:23
questions and it would have all the Enterprises data and it would also understand their permissions and have
01:07:27
all the security settings so that only there I feel could get the right information that's the kind of
01:07:32
intelligence they want to unlock I mean there are lots of other use cases but that's a really simple one a corporate
01:07:38
Oracle so I can if I'm in HR I can ask hey tell me about our you know composition yeah totally co-pilot for
01:07:45
the CEO I think there's gonna be lots of these I think the sales team is gonna have their own co-pilot I think the
01:07:49
marketing team's gonna have their own co-pilot and customer support has it already yeah this customer support will
01:07:54
have it there's gonna be a lot of these but I think Enterprises want one at the level
01:08:00
of the call it the company intranet where employees could just ask it questions and but they do not want to
01:08:06
share their data with open AI That's like very clear they want to roll out their own models
01:08:10
so the question is well how do you roll out your own model and what this shows here is the different pieces of the
01:08:15
stack that you have to have so first you capture all of your data you got to label it to be classified right for the
01:08:20
model you've got to store it somewhere then you need to get one of these open source AI models off the shelf and
01:08:26
there's a probably the most prominent site for this called a hugging face which already has something like I think
01:08:32
a two billion dollar valuation that's another like really crazy valuation to ARR multiple but hugging face has kind
01:08:40
of all the open source models it's very active and so people grab the latest open source model that's the best fit
01:08:46
for them and then they need to train that model and that's really where Mosaic played and there's a ton of
01:08:51
activity right now in this last mile problem of how do you customize a model to make it suitable for your use whether
01:08:58
you're an Enterprise whether you're a customer service team whether you're a SAS app that wants to incorporate AI
01:09:05
capabilities into your app that's where all the action is right now is customizing these open source models
01:09:10
models that then leads to basically being able to get the right inferences and there's sort of a separate category
01:09:17
around Hardware that is you know we don't play there but this is kind of the end-to-end tool chain and I think these
01:09:22
big tech companies are going to be racing to put this whole thing together to fill it out yeah yeah and that's so
01:09:28
there'll be more M A is your prediction which means more startup valuation booming more Capital deploying there was
01:09:33
a uh a couple of Articles this week and tomorrow this is your red meat as much as Ukraine is Saks is
01:09:41
because you've talked about this at length social messaging startup IRL is shutting down after a board
01:09:47
investigation found 95 percent of its claimed 20 million users were actually fake this is a company that in June of
01:09:53
2021 raised 170 million dollar series C at evaluation of over a billion dollars making it one of the many proclaimed
01:10:00
unicorns of Silicon Valley led by softbanks Vision fund the investor who was sitting on the board said that they
01:10:06
didn't know if we've ever given an investment term sheet to a startup faster than SoftBank gave to IRL at the
01:10:12
time at the same time different story but in the same week a company called baiju which you have talked about in the
01:10:19
past was once valued at 22 billion dollars and claimed to be India's most valuable startup is in turmoil as
01:10:25
shareholders and creditors are seeking to dilute the founder and he's rushing to find Capital and raise a billion
01:10:32
dollars to try and buoy the company process one of the investors Mark the company's valuation down to 5.1 billion
01:10:38
so down 75 percent I guess the question is overall are we still seeing this kind of turmoil in
01:10:46
Silicon Valley from the zerp era funding of startups in Stark juxtaposition to the excitement and the frenzy around AI
01:10:53
it's a characteristic of the exact same thing meaning if you replaced AI with crypto
01:11:00
it's the exact same thing if you're placed AI with co-working if you replaced AI with
01:11:10
I don't know synthetic biology if you replaced AI with SAS this has all happened before I think it's important
01:11:18
to identify what this is what this is is that there aren't enough checks and balances and there are
01:11:25
fundamentally people who are deeply inexperienced who are in the wrong job and in the few key moments
01:11:34
where the venture capitalist is supposed to add value that person is ill-equipped
01:11:40
and unprepared why because they were the VP of X Y and Z at some startup and they got hired through no fault of
01:11:47
their own into a dynamic because these Venture funds wanted to raise larger and larger
01:11:52
amounts of money so what happens you don't even know how to ask the basic questions or even more
01:12:00
insidiously you don't have the courage to say the hard thing and so these things happen that are
01:12:08
frankly inexcusable right so in the case of one of these companies and I've mentioned this before
01:12:15
they approached us for financing and when we asked for a data room we got a Google doc link to a spreadsheet
01:12:24
now there's no reasonable World in which a company is that unsophisticated when it comes to understanding their business
01:12:31
right a data room should include an enormous amount of operational and financial metrics that you can use to
01:12:38
come to your own conclusion so that you can present it transparently to the investor
01:12:43
the idea that boards wouldn't even hold these companies accountable is just a sign that the board members themselves
01:12:50
are pretty fundamentally inexperienced people and I think the thing that we do which
01:12:55
is a mistake is we say oh well X Y and Z firm LED this deal yeah that may be true
01:13:01
but really what it means is that firm in a grab to get the money hired some person that checked some
01:13:10
boxes put them in the job that person LED around and there just wasn't any infrastructure to either teach that
01:13:17
person or then that person to have the courage to hold the founder responsible that will play out in AI as well it's
01:13:24
just that we're at the beginning of the hype cycle right because we replace AI again as I
01:13:30
said with any of these other things we sat here a little bit hand-wringing when we saw
01:13:34
these crazy valuations for these nft projects where are those now right so you name it zero this is about
01:13:41
fundamentally inexperienced people doing a job that seems pretty easy from the outside
01:13:47
but in Practical reality there are only a few Legends in our business most people and I think it was shy Goldman
01:13:53
that did the math on this most people do not know how to run these businesses well Nick will find that tweet you can
01:13:59
show I think it's like two and a half percent of all of the funds that are in pitchbook so over 800 of them have ever
01:14:07
generated more than 3x and two funds so this is a hard business it turns out you can't just wake up and be an
01:14:13
investor it turns out and that's what we're finding so I don't know it's not very surprising in the end
01:14:19
none of this is surprising had a really good point in the middle there is that there is a generation of
01:14:25
venture capitalists who were added during the boom who were operators but they've never been taught to have the
01:14:30
discipline of capital allocators and one of those key pieces of discipline is asking uncomfortable questions and doing
01:14:37
uncomfortable diligence and you can trust people but you need to verify that is a key part of
01:14:45
the job you can trust the founders but you have to verify that the data you have is correct
01:14:50
the fact that SoftBank did is that incredible valuation and the person who did this deal never checked that the
01:14:58
customers were real is uh makes you unfit to serve in the job and I will do diligence and during
01:15:06
that time period Freeburg I had many Founders say to me you're asking for more diligence than the lead and this
01:15:13
deal is closing and we are over subscribed and I said okay and they said okay so you're not gonna you're not
01:15:19
going to require assistance I said oh no we require this diligence we want to see
01:15:22
your you know very basic stuff your bank statements your p l we want to talk to why don't you give us a list of your
01:15:28
first thousand give us a list of 500 customers from last month we'll give you five numbers we're going to talk to five
01:15:34
random customers like people did not want to do this stuff we do that this work at our firm when we start to own
01:15:39
five ten percent of this and we train our Founders to do to be ready for proper diligence all that diligence is
01:15:44
happening now now in the early stages there's not much to go on but you can check stuff
01:15:49
during this period people Founders used the hot Market to not participate in the due diligence process
01:15:57
and when you look at companies a lot of times people will suspend disbelief you know this company uh buy
01:16:03
you I don't know a ton about it but it seems to have you know like an educational app like a
01:16:09
company brilliant.org that chamoth and I are um early investors in and Jama incubated
01:16:15
great great business um and but then their business and their revenue seems to be based on a series of
01:16:21
like Kumon like in-person instruction oh that's not a high gross margin business
01:16:25
sorry if you have to have a storefront you're not a software business anymore and so people started giving valuations
01:16:33
and this is the second part and I'll just wrap on this people started giving valuations to these companies that were
01:16:37
real world businesses that were low margin businesses direct to Consumer whatever it was they suspended disbelief
01:16:43
and they gave them valuations for high growth high gross margin businesses and that
01:16:49
was another mistake and you put those two things together not doing diligence and then just
01:16:55
misvaluing of actual assets that's the cleanup work that's been that's going on right now and it takes years I mean it
01:17:01
took decades for them to pinch Bernie Madoff it can take 10 years for these frauds to come out there was a guy who
01:17:08
kept telling the SEC about Bernie Madoff I think he was like nine years since the
01:17:12
first time he he let them know that the you know perfect returns were just not possible statistically
01:17:19
so it it takes time but they're they're picking these uh Folks up everywhere dokwan got picked up at Montenegro you
01:17:26
know the guy from Luna and it's going to take a decade to clean up all of the fraud in our space I think
01:17:32
this was sort of mentioned by chamoth but I think it needs to be a bigger point which is the influence of fund
01:17:37
size on these decisions I mean crash funds are in the six to seven hundred million range so when we
01:17:44
write a check it's usually 10 15 20 million dollar check in a series a company that's like a big check for us we're
01:17:52
really going to sweat that decision for SoftBank at 10 to 20 million dollar check in a hundred billion dollar fund
01:17:58
which is what they had it doesn't even make sense it's a waste of their time it's not even a rounding
01:18:03
error for them to basically make a ten thousand dollar check for you yeah exactly so for them they had to write
01:18:10
200 million dollar checks if to justify their time managing 100 billion dollars and so the mistake when they make a
01:18:17
mistake is 20 times bigger than it should be that should have been maybe a 10 million mistake not a 200 million
01:18:24
dollar mistake but their Fun Size force them to basically write these gigantic checks and they're writing them into
01:18:29
companies that were effectively seed stage or series a companies if it was into a growth stage company I think
01:18:36
that's fine there's a lot more data and there's a lot more customer references that you can check at a later Stage
01:18:41
Company by the way the number one part of diligence I'd say for us other than looking at metrics which is anyone can
01:18:47
do is the offsheet references talking to customers from a list that you figured out yourself not from the company itself
01:18:55
is probably the single most important qualitative part of of diligence so I don't know what happened here but
01:19:02
it's not stated explicitly but I think it's important David you have credibility So when you say something
01:19:08
sucks people listen because you have Bona fides that are undeniable same thing with jcal same thing with you
01:19:14
Freeburg I think you know and this may sound mean but it's like most of these people
01:19:18
are just XYZ mid-level VPS from a startup and that's a great thing but it's not necessarily going to give
01:19:27
you the gravitas especially if that's not what you were forced to do to help build that company and when push comes
01:19:33
to shove inside of a boardroom or in the middle of diligence there has to be conflict I think it's a
01:19:40
necessary feature of good decisions and that conflict arises internally within your investment team but it also has to
01:19:46
come externally with the executives of the startup and with the CEO themselves because when you're Prosecuting a good
01:19:53
decision it's unbelievable that you agree on 100 of things and there has to be certain things that are controversial
01:19:58
otherwise by definition that company isn't really even pushing the boundary so I just think that these are all
01:20:04
skills that are poorly taught while you are building a business it is not the reason why you should have been
01:20:11
in charge of allocating 50 and 100 million dollar checks into companies that is just crazy town
01:20:16
I love your point sacks though about Fun Size Dynamics Fun Size Dynamics our destiny right it really is and and the
01:20:24
optimal Fun Size for Venture is somewhere between 250 and 600 million according to everybody who's been doing
01:20:32
this for you know more than a decade or two and who's successful whether it's when the costs are coming down so as the
01:20:37
input costs come down whether it's for engineers and co-pilots and and hardware and abstraction layers then
01:20:43
theoretically greater outcomes should be generated with fewer dollars in which would again
01:20:48
tell you that fund sizes should actually go down not up that the reason they go up is because you get paid an annual
01:20:54
management fee and so obviously the way to wait the way to make more money is to
01:20:59
get two percent on a larger fixed number every year versus two percent on a smaller number or you know for example
01:21:05
what we did was we were like we're gonna go and hit grand slams and so I traded off management fee in return for 30
01:21:12
carry and that turned out to be literally a multi-billion dollar smart decision because I gave up tens of
01:21:19
millions of dollars up front for back end now the back end could have gone to zero and maybe it still can so who knows
01:21:25
but you know most folks wouldn't do that most folks take the sort of risk-adjusted bet and say you know what
01:21:32
I'll just take the two percent and I'll raise a 200 million then a 500 million then a billion then a two billion
01:21:37
dollars yeah and they stack them all and they get the two percent and all of a sudden
01:21:41
the profits don't matter which means the outcomes don't matter which means the diligence is perfunctory and it becomes
01:21:47
a theatrical expose that you can use you know this sort of thin fig Leaf you can
01:21:53
point to LPS and say we did our work here give us more money for this next fund that's the rat race that the
01:22:00
Venture Community is in and it's going to get played out in companies like IRL and baijus and a lot of these AI
01:22:06
companies quite honestly well and it the chickens have come home tours for all the questions is not different is I
01:22:11
think what I'm trying to say this time is not different did you guys see there was some article that reported that
01:22:17
fundraising for late stage funds is just like cratered dead so Insight was trying
01:22:22
to raise a 10 billion dollar fund and they've only been able to raise two according to this article no no it was
01:22:26
it was 22 down to 10 and of which they've raised two okay so 10 and then tiger was trying to raise 12 they cut it
01:22:34
to six and then they can only raise two makes sense yeah so basically that's like a whatever uh 80 to 90 reduction in
01:22:43
the size of these funds yeah meanwhile the sovereigns where they were going for this money or buying sports teams
01:22:48
they're like you know what instead of tech let's just buy sports teams and they're buying series a and they're
01:22:53
buying Manchester United and they're buying distressed portfolios yeah and the but there's a sovereign crunch
01:22:58
there's a huge we've talked about it before but there's a huge crunch in late stage financing it's only going to get
01:23:02
worse over the next 18 months I asked Brad last week like how many of these zombie courts do you think there are
01:23:09
these are the 1400 he said 30 to 40 percent yeah I think he might be you know it could be look out of 1400 I
01:23:16
think it could be 700 or zombie coins I think it's at least 700 I think I think it's probably 60 yeah it's and then the
01:23:22
other 40 let's say how many of them have a Down Round coming I think 60 go to zero
01:23:29
of the remaining 40 half of them probably return money and then of the remaining half half of
01:23:37
those maybe get one and a half X and then you get a geometric distribution from there which means the
01:23:43
Blended return of that entire stream of unicorns will be about 1.1 x but it'll be very massively distributed I think
01:23:49
that is exactly right tomorrow I I would yeah everybody's getting their money back except if you don't have
01:23:55
diversification yeah it's it's the I think the market is sending a very clear message which is these are usage
01:24:02
everybody's getting no no no most people won't get their money most people get their money back but on average it's
01:24:07
going to be one extra turn yeah so it's not going to be evenly distributed correct
01:24:10
well I'm glad that the term zombie corn has held guys um we are coming up on our
01:24:15
time do you guys want to do science corner or do you want to um yeah the three of us need to use the
01:24:20
bathroom break so go ahead and just if you could just go do it we're gonna go and take a leak and we'll come back
01:24:27
and make a Uranus joke so look it's been great it's been great being your host we crashed yourself give
01:24:35
us the science quitter give us you don't hug me you don't embrace me you know you're gonna love my contribution free
01:24:40
book I actually I posted a clip of RFK talking about vaccines I'd love for you to listen to it and actually give us the
01:24:47
critique yes I will that's going viral right now he did such a good job explaining his position on
01:24:54
that he did such a good job yeah look do you guys read the offit piece I forward
01:24:58
it to you and I said please read this if you guys read that piece I'll watch his clip and let's talk about it next
01:25:04
week is that cool yeah he is a vaccine scientist who RFK Jr references often as someone that he
01:25:13
met with and spoke with and says I caught him in a lie and often basically said here's exactly what happened here's
01:25:18
the conversation here's the data here's the fact here's the science and I would really really encourage you
01:25:25
guys to read that please and then I'll watch his clip and like let's have a real kind of analytical
01:25:30
conversation about statements that are good questions to ask and good things to interrogate and things that are being
01:25:37
said that maybe aren't factually correct and I think that we need to kind of really as a service to ourselves and to
01:25:43
people that listen to us really do that work so let's do that and come back and talk
01:25:47
about it next week if that's cool but I'd encourage everyone to read often he put it on substack Nick we'll put the
01:25:53
link in the the notes Here continue dialogue continue exactly I think that's the most important you want to talk
01:25:59
about that certain Senator that all of a sudden just basically gave us the Heisman no we've had a lot of those by
01:26:05
the way so let me just be clear that's not the only Heisman we've received on the all in Summit I will say that the
01:26:10
speaker list for the all-in summit it's looking fantastic we're gonna have a great time
01:26:19
and I'm really excited for the conversation but you're saying some folks Heisman does because of our
01:26:24
support of RFK that did happen and specifically the fact that that's really open-minded yeah
01:26:31
and then there were other folks who were insulted by things or said about them by
01:26:36
people on the show So Soft you guys want to hear about the the nanograph release
01:26:41
that came out yesterday okay I'll cover this one real quick what about this like
01:26:44
slow Hummer that we're all getting what is that that's it it's a slow Hummer exactly okay are you talking about like
01:26:51
the new H3 EV but it only goes up to 50 miles per hour what is that the new Hummer the new HV
01:26:57
you know they have an EV they're coming out with an EV event oh you're kidding it's hilarious yeah it's like a great
01:27:03
troll I remember when Schwarzenegger got the Hummer back in the 90s and everyone's like oh my God it's amazing
01:27:09
and then the Hummer was the coolest car to drive yeah Okay so yesterday a paper was published
01:27:20
by an international um scientific Consortium this group is called nanograph and they've been using a series of
01:27:27
instruments to measure pulsars including a 500 meter radio telescope array um which allows them to see what's so
01:27:37
funny no I just had like three Uranus jumps one sentence and I had to stop myself
01:27:44
the nanograph data that was released is 15 years of data from pulsars and pulsars are neutron stars which are
01:27:52
stars that have collapsed on themselves and are basically super dense and start spinning and then these pulsars you know
01:27:58
you basically like a lighthouse you can see the light so it looks like a almost like a strobe light and we can see
01:28:03
thousands of these Across the Universe and we can observe them and the rate at which the pulsing is coming out of these
01:28:09
pulsars tells us a lot about what is happening in the space between Earth and those pulsars and when you collect
01:28:18
enough data over a long enough period of time which is what these folks have just
01:28:21
released as 15 years worth of this data you can start to see really interesting patterns in the data that support the
01:28:31
theory that space time itself is slowly vibrating being stretched being compressed being pulled apart being
01:28:40
pushed back together because of very large gravitational events happening around the universe and what that means
01:28:47
is you guys have all seen you know that kind of two-dimensional image of a black hole and Nick if you
01:28:52
could find one online and pull it up where it looks like hey at the middle of a black hole space itself collapses in
01:28:57
and it collapses down and what happens is space and time gets significantly elongated when they're really close to
01:29:04
gravity gravity actually pulls space sucks it in sucks in time and it becomes distorted and so when you have large
01:29:12
black holes around the universe spinning and running past each other they're actually pulling and stretching space
01:29:18
time itself and that sends out ripples throughout the Universe ripples that are slowly undulating space and time itself
01:29:27
so by observing all of these pulsars around the universe and the rate at which these pulsars are pulsing and
01:29:33
seeing slight variations we can start to measure and actually see those waves those very slow waves of space time
01:29:43
itself undulating and being pushed and compressed and so it supports Einstein's general theory of relativity which
01:29:50
indicated that space-time itself can be warped by gravity and it provides a really interesting picture on the
01:29:56
universe itself that all around us we have large masses that are many many millions or billions of light years away
01:30:03
that are creating waves in space and time itself that we as humans will never kind of observe realize or feel
01:30:10
ourselves but as part of the fabric and the underlying nature of our universe with space and time being slowly warped
01:30:18
and slowly elongated slowly compressed and it's a really fascinating picture of the universe over time as scientists
01:30:24
gather more and more of this data it will provide insights into where in the universe these massive black hole
01:30:31
events May Be occurring and also provide insights into the early picture and the
01:30:35
large-scale structure of the universe which helps us better understand how everything started and where we're all
01:30:41
coming from so it was a really fascinating data release I think it's a really kind of profound thing if you
01:30:46
take a little time and think about it it's super exciting it's getting a lot of press coverage today and
01:30:52
encourage us all to pull our heads out of the Ukraine war and Silicon Valley and money and all this stuff and realize
01:30:58
that there are things of extraordinary scale and structure that are that are happening around us let me ask you two
01:31:02
questions number one why does it matter and number two any theories here of what
01:31:09
we might discover you know if this you know goes 10x or 100x in terms of the the information we're getting many years
01:31:17
ago it was theorized that there's what's called a cosmic microwave background radiation the CMB and what that is it's
01:31:25
the leftover heat from the formation of the Universe from the universe when the Big Bang happened yep and these
01:31:31
scientists figured out how to create really sensitive radio telescopes and um put them in the the uh in orbit and they
01:31:38
started to observe the background radiation and what that showed us was the fingerprint of the universe the
01:31:44
original structure of the universe that created ultimately all the galaxies super galaxies and then ultimately all
01:31:50
the stars and then the planets and everything that that came from that this could be the beginning of seeing a
01:31:55
gravitational background of the universe where we could actually start to see perhaps the fingerprint of the
01:32:02
space-time of the whole universe of what the actual structure of space itself and time
01:32:08
itself looks like throughout the Universe with the perturbations being driven by some very large massive
01:32:13
supermassive black holes there was a black hole discovered this week that's 30 billion times the mass of our sun
01:32:20
there are these massive objects out there that are actively distorting space-time and we're going to start to
01:32:26
get a fingerprint of that with this sort of data and over time that just gives us
01:32:30
a better sense of what the overall structure of the universe looks like not just from the heat energy that we're
01:32:35
collecting but also the gravitational waves that we're now able to observe through the inference of this data
01:32:40
collection let's just make deepens our understanding of the universe but there's no structure of the universe
01:32:44
yeah which is amazing and interesting but and and it validates and proves the general theory of relativity which if
01:32:51
you think about the application of that down the road that may lead to things like close to or as fast as like travel
01:32:58
or things related to time travel or you know there's a lot of things that people
01:33:02
have theorized for decades about you know black holes and the warping of space-time itself I'm not saying that
01:33:09
any of this stuff is did you see the three body problem trailer oh yeah it looks amazing it looks
01:33:15
amazing it's amazing what a great what a great can't believe we have to wait so long I hate it when they put out
01:33:20
trailers so how long when is it coming out next year oh wow yeah oh I still haven't seen your movie the guys your
01:33:28
movie that you wanted me to see which one better try oh everything everywhere all at once I got a better
01:33:33
movie for you I got a great pull for you uh it's on Pay-per-view right now the movie call about BlackBerry
01:33:40
it tells the story of black oh I heard it's like an independent film it is awesome
01:33:45
I just reviewed it on this week in startups it's called just on his BlackBerry called Blackberry yeah I
01:33:52
think okay well guys this has been episodes amazing 135 of the all-in Pod I really appreciate it
01:33:58
are oh my God my time together just enough time to get you back to your Nirvana concert
01:34:04
Leo what's the background on this one is that a rival what is that what's that background what movie that's a black
01:34:12
hole that's a black hole just a black hole okay no I think that that's from might be event might be a matter with
01:34:20
Sax's hair because he looks like did you get it cut sacks he got a cut did you cut it no you broke I got a mild
01:34:27
sloughing shower show us the floor let's go let's see just keep growing it out man Jacob you
01:34:39
want to take us out you do a better outro all right everybody for David sacks the architect coming at you Z100
01:34:46
boarding Zoo for Tuesdays Tears for Fears coming up and free bird with the science project
01:34:52
all right traveling back in time with David Friedberg two for Tuesday Jackson Browne the lowdown here we go
01:35:04
the greatest moderator I'm the world's greatest modern I can do my MPR voice if you like dude all right
01:35:12
closing us out here episode 135 pcrw 92.3 The Sound of Santa Monica this Sunday at the Venice uh Farmers Market
01:35:22
two for one on the organic milk go check it out and uh we'll see you all later on
01:35:28
the politics of culture David sacks uh coming in on the Republican GOP position which we did consider Friedberg deeply
01:35:37
going into science on wealth disparity for everybody I am your host here at KCRW
01:35:46
is the world's most moderate moderator we'll see you next time KCRW I can do any of these radio bits
01:35:56
love you guys we'll let your winners ride [Music] besties [Music] it's like this like sexual tension that
01:36:35
we just need to release somehow [Music] [Music] I'm going all in

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 75
    Most shocking
  • 75
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  • 70
    Most dramatic
  • 70
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Episode Highlights

  • Wagner Group Rebellion
    The Wagner Group launched an armed insurrection against Russia, raising questions about Putin's regime stability.
    “This armed Rebellion or Mutiny by Pregosian was evidence that the Russian regime was about to collapse.”
    @ 03m 19s
    July 01, 2023
  • Putin's Popularity Amidst Chaos
    Despite the coup attempt, polls suggest Russian society remains united behind Putin.
    “The Russian people have rallied around the flag and they do support this war and Putin as the leader.”
    @ 16m 33s
    July 01, 2023
  • Escalation of War
    Putin may escalate the war as pressure mounts from hardliners.
    “This war is existential for him personally.”
    @ 21m 40s
    July 01, 2023
  • Legacy Admissions Under Fire
    Legacy admissions may face challenges after the Supreme Court ruling.
    “If you can't use race-based admissions, legacy admissions will be next.”
    @ 28m 26s
    July 01, 2023
  • The Legacy Admissions Debate
    The discussion centers around whether legacy admissions should be legally regulated, focusing on fairness in college admissions.
    “I think it should stop so I think that's important Legacy thing for privacy”
    @ 39m 54s
    July 01, 2023
  • The Role of Unions in Education
    A complex discussion on how teachers' unions impact public education and the quality of schooling.
    “People have the right to form unions but...”
    @ 44m 37s
    July 01, 2023
  • The Rise of Machine Learning APIs
    Four out of seven startups at Sequoia wouldn't exist without machine learning APIs.
    “These businesses were not possible before this technology was introduced.”
    @ 58m 47s
    July 01, 2023
  • Inflection AI's Massive Funding
    Inflection AI closed a $1.3 billion funding round led by major tech players.
    “They've just closed a 1.3 billion dollar funding round LED by Microsoft.”
    @ 01h 01m 16s
    July 01, 2023
  • The Turmoil of Silicon Valley Startups
    IRL and Baiju face significant challenges, highlighting the volatility in startup valuations.
    “95 percent of IRL's claimed users were actually fake.”
    @ 01h 09m 46s
    July 01, 2023
  • The Long Cleanup of Fraud
    Frauds in the financial space can take decades to uncover, as seen with Bernie Madoff.
    “It takes decades for these frauds to come out.”
    @ 01h 17m 00s
    July 01, 2023
  • Fund Size Dynamics
    The size of funds influences investment decisions, often leading to larger mistakes.
    “The mistake when they make a mistake is 20 times bigger than it should be.”
    @ 01h 18m 15s
    July 01, 2023
  • Gravitational Waves and Space-Time
    New data reveals that space-time is vibrating due to massive gravitational events.
    “This could be the beginning of seeing a gravitational background of the universe.”
    @ 01h 31m 55s
    July 01, 2023

Episode Quotes

  • I think we're gonna see Putin lose power in the next 10 years.
    E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
  • The Supreme Art of War is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
    E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
  • I think it should stop so I think that's important Legacy thing for privacy.
    E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
  • Businesses that economically would not work now work.
    E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
  • Most people do not know how to run these businesses well.
    E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
  • This could be the beginning of seeing a gravitational background of the universe.
    E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more

Key Moments

  • Putin's Popularity16:33
  • Existential Stakes21:40
  • Supreme Court Decision24:17
  • Legacy Admissions39:54
  • Funding Frenzy1:01:16
  • Startup Turmoil1:09:46
  • Fund Size Issues1:18:15
  • Closing Remarks1:35:12

Tension Over Time

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