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hey everybody welcome to the all-in podcast with
Jason Calacanis and shimoff poly Hypatia we record
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this podcast well on on a really unique schedule
to mouth what's our schedule right now whenever
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we feel like it basically it is whatever our
significant others get so sick of us they kick
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us off and say don't come back yeah we get
throw to the pool house we decide to pop up
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the podcast you're in Atherton I'm in the city
in San Francisco Thank You Duke of discretion
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is there anything else you'd like to tell them
why gate code you know we had two guests on that
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people just went absolutely crazy for the two they
weren't available so we have two amazing David's
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in our lives David Freiburg and David sacks and
they are super smart super effective at their
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work everything we're not come off and so with all
we bring them back on the podcast and we'll do a
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little round table here and talk about life in the
age of corona so welcome back to the podcast David
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sacks yeah good to good to be back with you and
also David Friedberg thank you guys happy to be
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here all right fantastic so I just want to start
off with our check how is everybody doing in this
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quarantine has everybody's mental health let's
start with you sacks well as we might be able to
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see we've moved our bunker to undisclosed Mexican
location you know and it's been great you know we
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you know I think it's really kind of sad because
where we're at is is a tourist City that would
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normally be at peak season and it's just deserted
right now all the construction stopped normally
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you see lots of you know hotels and houses being
built and that's all stopped and there's no
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tourists so it's all just kind of cleared out but
I think it's quite safe you know every worker that
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I've seen here since we landed at the airport
- you know got transported to to this community
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where at I mean has been wearing a mask much
more consistent than I think in the US and um
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you know I think it's been it's been fine now
of course you founded the craft venture capital
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firm and people know before that you obviously
did Yammer and sold that Microsoft for a billion
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dollars plus and before that you are the CEO of
PayPal what's going on with your business are you
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actively investing and how is your firm running
remote it's it's it's worked very well I mean
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we've always been super collaborative as a firm we
were always we were already on zoom' and we were
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you know we share everything on the amur and so
for us just moving to zoom wasn't that difficult
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we've done four or five deals I think since the
whole kind of quarantine started I'm sorry sorry
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sorry did you did you say that you actually use
Yammer now 2020 we're still using it oh my god is
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Yammer still hook available that's insane I mean
it's kind of got a little bit buried inside of
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Microsoft but you can certainly still get it and
no we love it I mean the whole firm kind of works
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works in the amur and it works very well for us
and now what's gonna happen with this incredible
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office that you have this beautiful office you
have in San Francisco and commercial real estate
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now that are you going to come back to work we
saw Twitter and square the jack collection of
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companies they're not going to come back to their
offices or work from home primarily going forward
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what are you gonna do well it'll be a great asset
for us in the year 2025 or something like that no
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I mean we will eventually go back to work there I
think that the team still likes having an office
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I think you know the idea that everyone wants to
work out of like a small room and you know extra
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room in their house I think probably getting is
probably a little overrated I think people would
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like to get back to the office but do we have to
have one no I mean I think we've proven that we
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can do our jobs via zoom and you know we've done
a lot of we've done like I said we've done four
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or five deals since the started where we haven't
met with the entrepreneur in person you know it's
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all been done by a zoom nanus it's worked great
all right trim off how are you doing what house
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which are a mental health like you know I get to
see you once in a while on CNBC throwing bombs
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but how are you doing I was really excited for
phase 2 of the shelter in place to start here
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in San Mateo County so that's been really good
a new poker table that I had built arrived today
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which I'll be installing after this and what I
mean by I'll be installing you'll be supervising
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I'll be supervising watching as people do real
work watching and it's a beautiful table I saw
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the pictures have a digital infinity edge is it
an infinity edge table no no no no but I'll send
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you a picture when it's all done but it just looks
stunning and I really want to try to organize the
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game soon so that I can get you guys back into
the into my little cave here yeah I am ready for
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this shelter in place to end I'll just be honest
and I think that my sentiments are the sentiments
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of a lot of people it's it's really tough really
really tough I I'm losing all my motivation to be
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quite honest it is weird to not see people even
and you're an extrovert David you're an introvert
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and then David Freiberg also on the line David how
are you handling all of this I'm fine I think one
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of the things that made a huge difference for
me is the creating a rhythm in the day because
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there isn't one when you kind of normally get
up and you go to work and then you come home at
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the end of the day from work that's a rhythm and
you're you kind of get kind of adjusted to it so
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not having that a lot of people I've been hearing
at struggling with that I was certainly struggling
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with it having sleep issues and I sit on about a
dozen boards some of which have small companies
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some of which have a couple hundred employees
and I've been hearing pretty consistently mental
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health issues across all the companies and I
think it's just been really grating on people
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I think it number one kind of says we probably do
need to be together and have social space as David
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said like being in the same office people really
miss that and you get a lot of value from that
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and I've been getting up everyday in the last
couple of weeks and going off-site going out of
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my house to go work we're actually working on
another place and I have like a little office
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there and I go kind of work there and so that's
made a huge impact honestly on my mental health
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being able to do that every day so just doing
that's been been helpful I not everyone has
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that privilege but I think it speaks a lot to
why we're gonna need to go back to offices when
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this is all done and what do you think about but
what's happening with your businesses obviously
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you're running a startup studio I guess would be
one way to describe it where you create companies
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and then spin them out what's been the business
interruption if any we have a couple of hardware
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and lab companies that's most of what we've
done and so those operations are paused so
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that's been really frustrating the teams have
all found ways to adjust and work from home so
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our companies are not predominantly software
based there's a lot of software but it's not
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predominantly software so it's been difficult on
those scientists and engineers that work in a lab
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or in a physical environment that they have to go
to to do their work the larger companies we have
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a number of food businesses that happen to be in
the food supply chain one way or another frankly
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those businesses are doing fantastically well and
there's been just this incredible success in the
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era of kovat on kind of a focus on fundamentals
like food supply chain efficiency availability of
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things that people need and we were doing a lot in
human health and we've kind of benefited from that
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so yeah I think there's kind of a mix for us but
I think every business is bifurcated one way or
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another during this kind of moment of punctuated
equilibrium yeah I think one thing I'd like to
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sort of talk about is we've had you both on the
podcast early on at the start of the pandemic
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and I'm curious chum off now that we're here over
two months in quarantine sheltering in place and a
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lot of information a lot of cards have turned over
here right we've seen the flop I think we haven't
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seen the the turn and the river so to speak what
is your assessment of what we were talking about
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you know a month or two ago and what we thought
about this and what's become reality and what
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hasn't what are you more optimistic about what
are you more pessimistic about your month let's
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start with you I think that we will have this
pandemic or this disease within two years and
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so whether it's a combination of a therapeutic
and a vaccine or just a therapeutic I just think
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that we're gonna kick its ass and so that's made
me more optimistic I think that the thing that's
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made me more pessimistic though is the return to
normalcy has been sort of cut on political lines
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and it's been so massively politicized I mean when
David talks about the fact that you know you can
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go to a developing country like Mexico and all
of a sudden you know everybody can get around the
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idea of masks it's because that there's a level of
common sense there that trumps politics and in the
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United States that just isn't the case and so what
you're seeing in in this crazy way I think is sort
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of the center left and the left probably sticking
very firmly to the ideology of sheltering in place
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and a lockdown probably on the sort of hope that
it gets Trump out of office and on the other side
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sort of the red states I think have basically said
hey I would rather get sick from coronavirus and
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take my chances than the hundred percent chance of
failure that I have in my professional life if you
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leave me at home for another week or month or what
have you so that's been a huge disappointment of
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how political this whole thing is got and sacks
you've been talking about like common sense
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procedures sort of same question to you what you
first thought and you had been talking about you
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thought an l-shape recovery so we'll get into also
the economy here but in terms of the disease what
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did you think two months ago that you don't think
now and what do you think yeah well in preparation
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for this I kind of went through my Twitter feed to
see what I was saying the last time I was on the
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pod and how well it was holding up and two months
ago today I tweeted that pandemic but that under
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reaction caused the pandemic and overreaction
will cause the depression and I think that's
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kind of where we are right now we still have this
pandemic with us but now we're also potentially
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facing I think a potential because of the way were
we're overreacting we're still in lockdowns in you
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know huge swathes of the country and no one can
quite understand why I mean the original reason
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for the lockdowns was tobias time so that the
hospitals wouldn't become overwhelmed like Italy
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well nowhere in the country did the hospitals get
overwhelmed and we're still in these lock downs
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and and so you know I I think that it's long
overdue for it to end now at the same time you
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know where I agree with Gemma that this whole
thing's become politicized where you know the
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the people who generally want to get us out of
lock downs don't believe in doing anything you
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know they're not even a lot of them already been
willing to wear masks which i think is just kind
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of insane so you know where I come out on this
thing is that I think we should end lock downs
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but wear masks and it's very hard to find anybody
you know in the in the political spectrum who who
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agrees with that because you know one side wants
to keep the lockdowns going indefinitely and the
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other doesn't want to store mass and it makes no
logical sense obviously and if you think about
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our political system the left is so far left
that the moderates on the left side don't have
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a place to live anymore and then on the right
the Conservatives which I would put you in the
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group of who were you know looking for fiscal
conservatives conservatives they don't have a
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home anymore either and so the most reasonable
approach is clearly to start going back to work
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for people who are not at risk and who wear a
mask yeah I think I think there's been since the
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last pod that we did together I think there's been
three kind of major discoveries or sets of facts
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that have come out about the virus number one
the official fatality rate has been over which
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is about six percent you know it's a very high
fatality rate it's very scary but we now know
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that that's overstated by probably at least 10
acts because it doesn't take into account all the
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asymptomatic cases or mild cases that just never
got tested and this is the fatality rate of people
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who contracted the virus right as exactly as
opposed to people whose case the the the problem
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with the it's kind of a debate between the the IFR
versus the CFR the infection fatality rate versus
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a case fatality rate the the problem with kind of
the official CFR numbers is that only the people
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who got really sick or you never got tested and
you know freiburg was the earliest person I know
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to start talking about the need for wide scale
population testing and these plots are all G
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tests and other kinds of tests to establish what
the real baseline is but regardless of like and
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there's been a whole bunch of different tests with
different results I you know we don't know exactly
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what the truth is far is to this day but we do
know it's probably closer to half a percent than
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to 5% so that's sort of discovery number one I
think discovery number two is and we knew a little
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bit saw a little bit of this from the wuhan data
but now it's really clear that witch populations
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are at risk and it's you know the data seems
to suggest that people under 60 who are healthy
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don't have sort of pre-existing conditions or 50
times less likely to develop or there's there's
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a 50 X greater chance for those over 60 in terms
of a of the you know having a really bad outcome
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and so for people under 60 you don't have these
pre-existing conditions it's you know it's just
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not yes there's always you know examples to the
contrary but it's not this this sort of gigantic
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risks and so for two-thirds of the population they
don't have a huge risk and we're still locking
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them down I think the third thing the third
study and not just study there's there's been
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studies and there's been models and then we've
also seen practice is that wide scale use of
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mass or ubiquitous mass wearing is sufficient to
control the virus meaning to stop the exponential
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'ti of the virus we've seen you know in the Asian
countries or Czechoslovakia other places even able
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to get the you know the so-called are not that
the the viral coefficient to go below one with
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you know why skill use of mass and so we have a
way to prevent the virus from going exponential
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that doesn't require lock downs and so the thing
you know I I blogged about but the last time I
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was on your show was why would you do this to most
severe thing these lock downs and not do this easy
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thing that's just merely inconvenient which is a
mess Freiburg when you look at it and you're the
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I think have the deepest science clearly of the
deepest science background of all of us what what
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how do you look at this pandemic now that we're
75 days into it here in the Bay Area and obviously
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you know they started in December it looks like
in China what's your take on it now what did you
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get right early and what have you changed your
mind about recently I'm actually fine when you
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say that I just pulled up the original w-h-o joint
mission on Kovac final report and the date of this
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report by the way is February 20th so there was
this big thing they published 40 pages long from
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the whu-oh and in it they highlighted you know the
this fatality rate estimate inside of who Bay you
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know Wuhan and outside of who Bay they you know
we knew from this data very early on that we were
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at about a half percent fatality rate and then
you know we saw all of this other stuff happen
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with Korea and the princess cruise ship and the
NBA players very early on we saw all these people
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that were roughly asymptomatic and we're starting
to get to kind of explanations for why that is but
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from the beginning I felt really like you know
this is gonna be a largely asymptomatic kind of
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spreading infectious vector what what I got wrong
was when we went into lockdown I don't know CH
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amok if you remember this when we talked the first
time on Jason's on your guys's podcast I asked you
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guys or you guys asked me when I thought we'd be
back and I was like Oh April 7th we'll be back to
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work and I also had a bet going with you guys and
I said we're gonna have less than 20,000 deaths
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in the u.s. I so overestimated the effectiveness
of the lockdown and I think that was kind of you
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know one of the the more kind of like striking
things to me is the quote unquote lockdown and I
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just sent the video to Nick you have it can you
tear it up so basically I this is what I think
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has happened in the United States like pull this
thing up I was in Berkeley on Saturday and I went
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to play to meet some buddies and we played frisbee
golf on campus and had a beer some college buddies
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of mine and so I'm walking around in Berkeley
and there is frat party after frat party going
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on no mast everyone's on top of each other you
can see the video right here I took a video beer
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pong yeah they're all paying beer pong there's
like girls and drinking and people are passing
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around bottles of vodka and there's no mask and
this was the entire campus of Berkeley like and
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I think this is what's gone on like around the
country so the belief that you could just kind
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of like lock away the virus I believe like oh
my god there's it's so extreme it's so draconian
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we're gonna shut down the world and this thing
is gonna get stopped in 30 days like happened in
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China that is not what happened in the United
States of America like people want to be free
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people want to party people want to live their
life they want to go to work they want to see
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their friends and family and they they're not used
to being told no by the government and so I think
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that's been to me the biggest surprise is just
like how ineffective the quote-unquote lockdown
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has been and I think it really speaks to the need
that David mentioned which is this lockdown isn't
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binary you can't just say lock everyone down
or let them all out you've got a nuanced your
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way to a solution which means like masks which
means watching out for nursing homes which means
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temperature checking before letting people in the
buildings of over 100 people like all the stuff
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that I think needs to be done for this to be kind
of effective at you know tracking and tracing and
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we can't just assume that you know a quote-unquote
lockdown is gonna keep people inside and keep this
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thing from spreading because the frat party
as you'll see is the perfect representation
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of what what's really going on out there all right
circling back around to you trim off what what do
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you think of what the two David's sort of outlined
there in terms of the path forward and how we all
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handicapped what was going on well I think the
reality is that by hook or crook we're gonna
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basically exit this lockdown sooner than we think
because I think people just can't take it anymore
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so there's no point in having a shelter in place
order if everybody's running around playing beer
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pong and so it's not doing anything and so you
might as well get the productive value of the
00:19:57
economy going again by letting people go back to
work you know we we and just finding some simple
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ways that people can look past the politics and
just do the right thing we're a goddamn mask and
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shut the [ __ ] up and go back to work it's it's
really like I mean when you think about it it's
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like why is this such a big deal get everything
you want and just put a little bit of cloth over
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your face I mean a lot of the folks that push back
on this you know they're better off wearing the
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mask yeah I mean it is pretty striking when you
watch the protest and you see a bunch of people
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who are you know obviously older and obviously
zerbies so those are not the best looking knives
00:20:42
in the drawer let's just put it that way if not
definitely not and pickled dull and rusty I would
00:20:47
say well I'm you know they're carrying guns and
they've never served a day in the army I mean it's
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they're literally cosplaying that way this whole
mass thing is not such a big deal just if you can
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wear a mask and get back to being productive and
get back to a job I think you should be allowed
00:21:04
all right so we had a big debate v-shape w-shaped
you shaved a low shaved recovery I was in the I'm
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aspirationally v-shaped but I'm expecting a you
sacks you were the AL and I think shimoff you
00:21:18
were the the W the U or the L we've had a V how do
you explain shimoff what is going on in the stock
00:21:24
market because you said it was the end of days you
said this is gonna be a disaster is it going to
00:21:30
be disaster is this the end of the days and we've
got some false rebound and this v-shaped recovery
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is not sustainable what how do you explain this
inexplainable v-shape responsibility response
00:21:42
there's two things to keep in mind first of all
the economy is completely [ __ ] so don't don't
00:21:48
question you know don't look at Facebook Apple
Amazon Microsoft Google and a handful of you know
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internet SAS companies and kid yourself we have
30 million American men and women out of work
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that is every fifth person you see walking down
the street does not have a job what happens when
00:22:06
lockdown ends if we if with the lockdown ends in
June as expected for mobility but how many people
00:22:11
are hammers in the foundry pound yeah yeah no so
so look here here's the thing that we've had we've
00:22:16
had trillions of dollars of money printed into
the system and when you print that money into the
00:22:23
system which the Federal Reserve has done it hits
the asset markets and it is basically stabilized
00:22:29
the bond market and the incremental dollar sits in
the hands of an individual who must put the money
00:22:36
to work because when you look back on this this is
not you know a random person managing their 401k
00:22:43
the overwhelming majority money sits and that sits
in the hands of hedge funds or pension funds or
00:22:48
sovereign wealth funds or mutual funds they have
a job to do and so you have to think about what is
00:22:54
their incremental decisions so even if the stock
market made no sense on any valuation metric the
00:23:01
incremental dollar that they have which they're
paid to put to work will get put to work and so
00:23:05
what you've actually seen is a dispersion and
what I mean by that is if you graph the S&P 500
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index versus the unweighted S&P 500 index which
basically means the first one ranks companies
00:23:21
by market cap and gives the biggest companies
more weight the other one ranks every company
00:23:25
equally there's been a massive split a dispersion
and what it really shows is that companies that
00:23:32
traffic in bits so software businesses have a
bid and companies that trafficking atoms have
00:23:38
gotten completely decimated and they are literally
worthless and so when you put all these things
00:23:45
together the real economy is in the toilet there
are tens of millions of you know men and women
00:23:50
out of work the earnings power of real companies
that do physical things in the world are cheaper
00:23:57
and lower than they've ever been meanwhile the
companies that have high velocity high margin
00:24:04
software driven businesses have gone to the moon
so it's unfair to look at 30 or 40 businesses and
00:24:11
paint that as a as a v-shaped recovery it is a
equity market that is buoyed by fed dollars that
00:24:17
is not mapping to the reality of what's happening
on the ground okay so Sachs you're you're pretty
00:24:23
plugged-in to the you think about this a lot what
do you think the recovery looks like is this going
00:24:28
to be two three four five quarter recession is it
going to be depression era like some people are
00:24:35
apt to say what keeps you up at night thinking
about the economy and what gives you hope well
00:24:42
I it kind of depends if there are other shoes
to drop so I agree with drum-off that you know
00:24:48
the state economy right now is terrible and it's
divorced from the financial markets because of you
00:24:54
know all the money printing and interventions that
the Fed and Treasury or you know have been doing
00:25:01
you know one way to think about it is well the the
stock markets denominated in u.s. dollars and if
00:25:07
you know they just printed a whole bunch more of
them those dollars are worth less and so you know
00:25:13
the the price of the stocks are gonna rise but
but yeah I think looking forward you know I it's
00:25:21
probably going to be a two to three year process
to get out of this unless some other shoe drops
00:25:25
which could make it much worse Europe you're
betting on two to three years to get back to
00:25:31
let's call it single digit unemployment um we'll
see we're at like what fifteen percent right now
00:25:38
or something like that so you know thirty five
million people get down to you know ten million
00:25:46
again twenty million it's it's hard to say it's
gonna take a long time to create all those jobs
00:25:51
you know a lot of these businesses are not just
gonna come you know racing right back so yeah I
00:25:58
think it's probably like a two three or process
to get back to some sort of you know and by the
00:26:02
way the thing you have to remember is like look
the unemployment numbers that we have had in
00:26:06
the last probably seven or eight years so during
Obama and Trump have been completely manipulated
00:26:12
because the number of people that are entirely
leaving the workforce is quite high and so you
00:26:18
know it's not just a numerator problem we have a
denominator problem too there are fewer and fewer
00:26:22
workers that you know are willing to work because
some of them just give up right or it's just not
00:26:29
worth it for the pay that's available is another
states open so the thing that we're gonna have
00:26:33
to figure out is like how many of the people that
are leaving the workforce may never come back and
00:26:38
has a societal toll and weight that we all have
to bear yeah there's gonna be a lot of people
00:26:44
who maybe are in their 60s or maybe even late
50s they got 10 20 years left that they could
00:26:50
be working in management sales whatever it is
and they just say you know what it's not worth
00:26:55
it I'm gonna go try to find a place to stay and
maybe not rejoin the workforce early retirement
00:27:02
or just capitulation yeah well and but you know
remember I said about other shoes dropping I mean
00:27:10
we we're still in the early I think we're still
in the early stages seeing the repercussions of
00:27:15
what you know but to three-month shutdown the
economy you know what what that's gonna look
00:27:21
like and so the you know the wave of defaults
is just beginning and you know who knows what
00:27:27
happens with cities and states and so on down the
line I mean who knows you know does do the debt
00:27:34
markets have kind of an inexhaustible you know
desire for you know to buy US debt or could we
00:27:42
reach some sort of saturation point and then that
triggers the next you know set of crises so we
00:27:49
just don't you know I would say like that the two
to three our outlook is is the one that's kind of
00:27:54
like what it looks like today but if there are
these other big shoes to drop it could turn in
00:28:00
something much worse I think Friedberg we're all
in agreement that there will be a second wave of
00:28:05
some type just depends on how big the spike is do
you think there'll be another new york city level
00:28:10
outbreak where we'll see you know 2,000 people
1,500 people dying in a certain region every day
00:28:16
for some sustained period of time what are the
chance of that happening Freiburg I don't know
00:28:22
I mean I think going forward the you know the
New York situation people's behaviors have been
00:28:27
shocked so you know to the points earlier the most
effective thing you can do is stop coughing on
00:28:32
your hand touching a railing someone else touches
the railing and touches their mouth I mean that's
00:28:35
kind of how this goes you know there's been early
on some weird like arrows stylized aerosolized a
00:28:45
study that kind of said hey this thing spreads in
the air and so on it's really you know you got to
00:28:49
be in a closed kind of confined space if people
are wearing asks now so the likelihood of the
00:28:54
transmission happening at the rate that we saw in
New York great paper out of MIT by the way that
00:28:59
shows how this happened on the subway oh really
identified I did identify the subway as kind of
00:29:04
the primary vector that droves transmission in New
York City that was always my thesis and I remember
00:29:10
talking about it and saying how is this not
obvious to everybody that 8 million people ride
00:29:14
that thing every day or something like it's so I
didn't make they did an incredible job proving it
00:29:18
so it's not like people running in Central Park
or spreading crota virus to each other's everyone
00:29:21
in these confined spaces coughing in the air and
then you kind of get this stuff and 20 people get
00:29:26
on and off at every stop that's the other thing
people don't realize is that it's not just a bunch
00:29:30
of people it's not an aeroplane we have X number
of people going in one direction for three four
00:29:35
five hours this is 20 people getting on and off
every five minutes it's almost like you couldn't
00:29:40
design a better incubator for it and I don't think
a city in the United States approaches the density
00:29:45
that you have in New York so remember these are
not deterministic factors these there's like a
00:29:49
spectrum of a probabilistic spectrum here so you
have a lot of people they have a certain type of
00:29:54
behavior they're not wearing masks you kind of add
these up and you end up with this really high kind
00:29:58
of vector that drives this this rapid spread as
we saw in New York City you know you're not gonna
00:30:03
see that in Dallas you're not gonna see that in
Houston you're not gonna see that in San Diego
00:30:07
you're gonna have more of the slow steady burn as
some risk is taken in the environment some risk
00:30:12
is taken by frat parties and people not wearing
masks and people touching their mouths but it's
00:30:17
not gonna have the same sort of massive effect you
saw in New York so I wouldn't expect us to have a
00:30:21
New York style second wave I do expect there to
continue to be this like slow burn going forward
00:30:27
of new cases and it's certainly going to be more
obvious now that we're testing a lot more and so
00:30:32
Tremont at this point we're basically putting
a price on life and saying hey some amount of
00:30:37
deaths is worth taking the risk and as Americans a
unique group of people in the world in how we look
00:30:44
at personal freedom Americans are just making the
choice hey listen if you don't want to take the
00:30:49
risk stay home but the rest of us if we want to
take the risk we're gonna go take the risk that's
00:30:53
what this has come down to in your mind yeah I
think that it's very difficult for Americans to
00:31:03
envision a world where like you know their
personal freedoms are infringed upon I mean
00:31:07
it's sort of like kind of one of the founding
principles of the entire country this is why I
00:31:12
think that the the tragedy of this thing is that
the the way to get everybody what they want is
00:31:17
so simple as David said it's like you know above
sixty five you stay home you work remotely under
00:31:23
sixty five you temperature check and wear a mask
and you know you're ninety five percent of the way
00:31:27
there but it's become a left versus right decision
to do it you know the mask wearers are still in
00:31:32
a lockdown and the non mask wearers want to get
back to work and basically like there's there's
00:31:37
it's just it's just another kind of culture war
between the left and the right it's it's really
00:31:45
just shocking I mean I might for what it's worth
you know if I was I am a betting man so I'll just
00:31:50
tell you you know my line now is that I think
that Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to
00:31:58
win as a function of people's frustration
and about the lock downs and I think that
00:32:03
the Democrats best hope of winning in November
is ending these things sooner rather than later
00:32:08
it's amazing we're talking about a pandemic a
once in a hundred year pandemic it looks like
00:32:14
and we're literally looking at our reaction to it
through the lens of this president being reelected
00:32:21
or not like literally that's the determining
factor on the advice we're giving to people
00:32:25
we're telling people they can't go to the beach
but they can be on an airplane they can't go to
00:32:30
the Tesla factory but they can ride the subway
I mean on a communication basis because they're
00:32:34
any worse way we could have communicated this to
the populace well the communication was bad but
00:32:41
the I think the bigger problem quite honestly
is that the Republican Democratic governors
00:32:46
in the United States can't get on the same page
and at the same time there's just a tendency to
00:32:53
support Donald Trump or not support him in a very
reflexive instinctive way that isn't helpful right
00:32:59
now and and there just doesn't seem to be enough
political wherewithal and courage to just stand up
00:33:05
and do the right thing independent of what your
what your political persuasion is so but but I
00:33:12
think on the margin now I think you have different
but very similar boundary additions to 2016 where
00:33:20
there all these people that kind of like told you
one thing and did another there all these people
00:33:24
right now that probably are you know preference
falsifying as we speak and you know they'll show
00:33:28
up into the voting booth and they'll be angry
if they're not back in their jobs especially
00:33:32
if they've been laid off by his as a result of
not being able to get back and they would blame
00:33:38
that on the Democrats not the Republicans and
therefore Trump gets his next term well because
00:33:43
the the it's it's the democratic states that are
pushing the hardest basically like you know you
00:33:47
saw the craziness in Los Angeles but like you know
Eric Garcetti was basically like we will enter the
00:33:52
shelter in place and you know December of 2022 and
it's like this is it's Los Angeles yeah it's not
00:33:59
gonna happen you know players got a play I mean
like this is just as unbelievable yeah well the
00:34:05
that III do I agree the lockdowns the or the the
unwillingness to end the lockdowns gives Trump an
00:34:14
issue for November assuming this continues that
supersedes the incompetence of the kovat response
00:34:22
which is that you know our lives and livelihoods
are not owned by politicians to you know meter out
00:34:31
and give back to us in drips and drabs and as they
see fit that is the issue that the lockdown crowd
00:34:38
is is giving to Trump and I do think it will if
it's still the issue in November it will supersede
00:34:43
the the you know the initial unconference of
the kovat response and what did you think of
00:34:50
this whole what's the drug that Trump said he
was taking David sacks I draw hydroxyl : yeah
00:34:56
so what or Friedberg maybe you take it we talked
about that early on and that I think you properly
00:35:03
said like if you took it earlier this could be
you know could has potential taking it later
00:35:08
it's probably too late I think you nailed that
on the pod last time why is this become such a
00:35:12
political issue in what are your thoughts on that
drug specifically and its potential efficacy look
00:35:19
I'm not a doctor but it from what I understand is
there is a so just so you know there's like side
00:35:28
effects to this drug for a small percentage of
the population and this drug can actually inhibit
00:35:33
energy production in certain cells which can cause
organs to dysfunction and it particularly shows up
00:35:40
in the heart so people end up with what's called a
long QT interval and potentially some heart issues
00:35:45
that can be pretty dangerous and deadly depending
on your body so it's really a little bit of an
00:35:51
unknown there's also issues longer-term with
with vision impairment can damage your retinal
00:35:55
cells and cause vision loss so there's risk
to this drug it's not like taking you know an
00:36:01
Advil it is a it is a measured risk it's a low
probability but the severity can be high and so
00:36:08
typically with a scenario like that doctors and
scientists like to see you know phased clinical
00:36:14
trials and you kind of do you know randomized
and you have placebo and testing and so that
00:36:20
hasn't necessarily been done for this particular
virus this particular condition and often the the
00:36:25
design of those studies matters a lot so you could
give it to a bunch of quote unquote Ovid patients
00:36:31
but if it's not being given to Kovach patients
either before or right as they're getting sick
00:36:34
maybe it doesn't show the results that you would
expect from a prophylactic treatment meaning
00:36:39
you're getting it before you're really sick and
that's where it may be the most efficacious and
00:36:44
so some people are saying wait we don't know
enough don't do it it's not worth the risk
00:36:47
because of that small percentage high severity
problem while others are saying oh my gosh it's
00:36:52
totally worth the risk is the downside if you get
coronavirus can be really bad and you know and so
00:36:57
so there's a lot of room for debate here and when
there's a lot of room for debate you usually kind
00:37:02
of revert to some sort of base belief or some base
kind of political point of view or something and
00:37:06
I think that's what's going on here this isn't a
clear-cut the Sun is yellow on this guy's balloon
00:37:11
kind of conversation this is like I can interpret
this a lot of different ways it does seem that
00:37:17
like look this drug you know like a lot of has an
effect in the same way that a lot of other that
00:37:23
this drug might have on a lot of other viruses
and this especially plus zinc you know and this
00:37:28
z-pak this as if from icing which is an antibiotic
together may be really effective and so yeah if
00:37:35
you weigh the downside and the probability of that
downside for a patient against what the potential
00:37:39
upside would be depending on their risk factors
now that we know those better for kovat you can
00:37:43
make an educated decision and maybe just be left
in the hands of doctors versus like have some
00:37:48
national statement about it I don't know but yeah
it's certainly a lot of room for debate and thus
00:37:52
a lot of kind of you know political engagement
on this Sax's there's a lot of talk about what
00:38:00
the bay area looks like after this whether it's
commercial real estate with Twitter and square
00:38:05
going full work from home and people not wanting
to work in cities what are your general thoughts
00:38:11
on what the world looks like a year from now
and maybe five years from now if there is going
00:38:16
to be some permanent change what do you think it
would be well there could be a big resource that
00:38:25
I rescind emic it's something we kind of end up
living with but you know so so look if it does I
00:38:34
mean if you're like over 70 are you really gonna
want to stay in a place like New York City or you
00:38:38
don't want to go somewhere else and so I could
imagine if this does become this long-term thing
00:38:43
that's just endemic yeah we don't know if we don't
have a vaccine I could see cities resorting where
00:38:49
you know New York is people who are come full
with ghovat risk and you know it's I think San
00:38:56
Francisco's the the big issue with San Francisco
is that there were always a bunch of reasons not
00:39:03
to want to live there I mean that the city too
seems like chronically mismanaged so he sees
00:39:09
lots of poop the huge homeless problem you know
public health issues with that there's there's
00:39:15
a lot of crime there's and we were responded to
properly so there's all these like reasons not to
00:39:19
live there but the reason why people chose to
live there is because the tech industry had a
00:39:24
very strong network effect and you needed to be in
Silicon Valley or San Francisco in order to have
00:39:30
access to these these jobs and opportunities and
if those jobs opportunities are now available via
00:39:35
zoom and you can be doing them from anywhere are
people still gonna choose to live in San Francisco
00:39:40
you know with you know with the the the cost of
living and housing and apartments and all the
00:39:47
rest of it that that goes that goes along with it
so yeah I mean I think there is some chance that
00:39:53
this whole remote work thing could break Silicon
Valley's Network effect and that would be really
00:39:59
bad for places like San Francisco which you know
otherwise might not be the greatest places to live
00:40:05
yeah I might thesis on this in terms of getting
out of the recession I think remote work could
00:40:13
lead to a level of efficiency and profitability
in the companies that we have never seen before
00:40:19
if you think just about every manager now knows
how to manage remote workers right you learned
00:40:25
that in like three four weeks you figure out how
to manage people remote even people who hated
00:40:31
managing people remote all these Gen Xers and
boomers who are managing you know Millennials
00:40:36
and earlier Gen Xers they now know how to do it
and what they quickly learn is these three or
00:40:42
four people in my team are crushing it these two
or three people don't need to be here they're not
00:40:47
actually adding any value so I think what's
gonna happen is they're gonna cut the bottom
00:40:51
people then they're gonna cut their office space
now you've removed I don't know call it 30% of
00:40:58
the cost basis of a business forty percent in its
operating better and people are happier and then
00:41:03
when you do hire somebody there's gonna be more
talent available and you've just opened it up
00:41:07
that you can hire somebody anywhere in the world
without an office and you don't have to relocate
00:41:13
them and you don't have to pay I don't know what
you guys think the average additional cost is to
00:41:19
be in San Francisco but I'm gonna say $30,000 so
a $40,000 a year job or a $50,000 your job becomes
00:41:25
a 70 or 80 something like that and if all that
happens these companies are gonna be so profitable
00:41:32
that they're gonna start growing and that leads us
out of the economic downturn any thoughts on my my
00:41:38
thesis that's not a thesis that's a hope yeah
hopes not a [ __ ] strategy Jason yeah well I
00:41:45
just think it's a potential way out I think it
I mean what do you think in general about this
00:41:50
trend of remote then drama I think it's great
and I think that we're realizing that you know
00:41:56
there's no monopoly on innovation and companies
can be really productive remotely that most of
00:42:03
the work in an office is busy work and politics
and you can cut it all out and you can do the
00:42:10
same amount of work much less time which gives you
more time to frankly be with your family or take
00:42:15
up a hobby or learn a second language or a third
language I mean I just think it's so much better
00:42:20
for people to realize like we got a you know it's
it's not like you you know it's not it's not 1820
00:42:26
or 1920 it's 2020 so we're gonna live to a hundred
years old like we have a long time to be in the
00:42:33
grind and so you know working and accomplishing
what you used to in half the time and not having
00:42:40
to commute and being able to live where you want
your people you like man that has a huge positive
00:42:46
impact to your kids you your community it's just
way better I just think offices are just complete
00:42:57
kind of like it's all Shakespearean theatre
at the end and cutting it all out is great and
00:43:01
specifically San Francisco's just a complete
cesspool dump of [ __ ] and so you know being
00:43:07
able to just get out of that city all right
everybody welcome to the you're listening to
00:43:12
the Oliver I read on stats yesterday that were
just so unbelievably shocking like the number of
00:43:18
break-ins the number of number one in the country
they're number one in the country did the the
00:43:24
amount of disease that like communicable disease
like typhoid and I'm like typhoid I was born in a
00:43:32
country and scratched and clawed to emigrate as a
refugee to leave a country that had typhoid as a
00:43:39
disease welcome o to survive nothing to end up
back in that in San Francisco thats brought it
00:43:45
with you that's an absolute joke so yeah yeah I
mean the idea that I'd never have to go to San
00:43:51
Francisco ever again is oh my god it brings joy to
me it is a it's an unmitigated disaster this and
00:43:58
I think this will be part of the boom-bust cycle
that you know David you were part of when you here
00:44:02
at Stanford you know getting an office in San
Francisco or having an apartment it was cheaper
00:44:07
I think in the city than it was down in Palo Alto
wasn't not well back in yeah when we move the amur
00:44:12
to San Francisco which was 2009 I think we were
able to get space for $20 a foot per year crazy
00:44:19
that's what I paid 2007 I read it I read it I read
a crazy article it was about the Kushner's and
00:44:29
this building that they own that Brookfield Asset
Management was gonna buy and and it said that they
00:44:36
bought this building and so the Kushner's moved
to like Park Avenue the General Motors building
00:44:40
overlooking Central Park or something right it's
a beautiful building and it actually quoted in
00:44:46
there the price that they were paying and it was
incredible because it was like a hundred bucks
00:44:50
a square foot per year and I realized oh my god
they're paying less for Central Park views in New
00:44:57
York than I'm paying for a warehouse in Palo Alto
not as a [ __ ] is going on this makes no sense
00:45:03
whatsoever gotta be supply and demand right there
and I thought to myself like this is this is crazy
00:45:09
like California is so expensive the taxes are so
high it's I think people are gonna leave in droves
00:45:16
honestly what do we think of Elon selling all his
homes and then actually saying he's gonna leaving
00:45:23
you know move tests out I mean I don't think it's
a practical reality to move Tesla out of out of
00:45:30
California I think that the incremental facilities
can be built wherever he wants him to be built
00:45:35
based on where he gets a tax incentives well but I
think the Tesla Freemont was a really good example
00:45:41
of this sort of like cultural war that's going
on this this political battle over lock downs
00:45:46
and you know you had kind of a mid-level health
the department bureaucrat in Fremont had locking
00:45:54
their factory and saying they couldn't go back to
work whereas if he was in Texas he could and then
00:46:00
you know around the same time yet this whole like
Chile Luthor thing in Texas where she was a small
00:46:05
business owner you know owns a like a haircut
place and she was basically put in jail for a week
00:46:13
for giving somebody a haircut and there was like
a you know dust-up over that so you know I I think
00:46:20
that like you know the the country is certainly
ready to get back to work and and if this is the
00:46:25
political debate you know in November I'm not sure
we'll be because six months is a really long time
00:46:30
from now but there was it four or five months but
if this is a political debate I you know this this
00:46:36
will be the way that the Trump gets re-elected
mm-hmm yeah I think there's gonna be some pretty
00:46:43
significant benefits because the reaction you guys
are speaking to it's not just about people moving
00:46:48
but it's a reaction to a regulation and that could
have some pretty profound effect that to benefit
00:46:57
certain sectors and businesses and accelerate new
outcomes one of the things that you know I have a
00:47:04
strong belief in it's like I think in 20 years we
could kind of eradicate all infectious disease the
00:47:10
only thing holding that up is regulation because
the science is known the engineering is basically
00:47:15
there and it's simply a function of getting these
things approved in getting across the finish line
00:47:19
doing gene editing and humans for genetic
mutations that cause harm to humans this is
00:47:25
a technique that we've known for twenty years and
there was a guy a patient that died in 1999 from
00:47:32
one of the first AAV treatments that viral vector
gene-editing treatments after that there was this
00:47:37
clamp down and suddenly everything stopped and
there was like no longer any progress in this
00:47:42
space and they're just now starting to come back
and there's a lot of you know really interesting
00:47:48
technology that has been kind of hindered I mean
you know not being able to put Tesla's out I
00:47:53
think is the tip of the iceberg of what people
are seeing regulation can do to business and
00:47:58
look I'm I'm by no stretch you know a libertarian
party card carrier but I do think and I see it in
00:48:06
businesses that I'm involved in all the time that
this you know incredibly onerous like overreaching
00:48:12
regulatory burden and bureaucrats really hinder
great new things from happening in the world and
00:48:19
it's just become so friggin apparent how inept
the people are that are making the decisions that
00:48:23
are doing this to us are during this crisis and I
think it could have a profound benefit on kind of
00:48:29
deregulation and accelerating the adoption of new
tools and new technologies that could really help
00:48:35
us all so I view the positive side of this it's
not just like everyone's gonna leave California
00:48:40
like this inept bureaucrats and over-regulation
everywhere let's talk to you politics for a moment
00:48:45
shamatha you know you heard the president called
the wuhan virus obviously there's no doubt that
00:48:51
it came from there there is a debate was this
something that was not created in a lab but that
00:48:56
was being studied in the lab and accidentally got
out and that's how the jump happened and there's
00:49:01
some tension there between China and the US what
do you think the global reaction is going to be
00:49:06
and the fallout will be for China if any Japan is
paying factories I read and help me subsidize them
00:49:14
to move factories out of China so they can move
that dependency we always saw the dependency on
00:49:18
PPE and drugs being made actually in Wuhan in that
area and how we don't have a supply chain that we
00:49:25
can rely on for really mission-critical stuff
how will we look at this Chinese relationship
00:49:29
in the United States and globally post pandemic
this is the beginning of the modern Cold War and
00:49:37
so it's America versus China except that China is
a much more worthy adversary for us than the USSR
00:49:49
SSR was at their peak and the reason is because
China has been making strategic investments for
00:49:57
the last thirty years you know the biggest thing
that prevents China from really going guns blazing
00:50:03
broadside attack on the US is that the u.s.
dollar is still the reserve currency of the
00:50:07
world but even there China you know is trying to
do a digital currency and a stable coin and these
00:50:14
are all these state-sponsored initiatives that
come from frankly just strategic decision-making
00:50:19
to try to usurp the United States as the most
powerful country in the world and so again it
00:50:26
goes back to is this a political issue or is this
an ideological issue or is this an exceptionalism
00:50:31
issue or is just as the practical reality that we
do not want another country being number one and
00:50:36
can we all agree and if we can all agree then
I don't think they'll win where do you where
00:50:43
do you sit on it for you is it practical as an
ideological completely practical I have zero
00:50:48
like yeah you know I've been thinking about this
a lot because I have not done any investments and
00:50:54
I just did by first oh so it's been three months
and I did it was a credit deal so it's not even
00:51:00
equity and you know I was and I was reflecting on
what what am I trying to do because I felt myself
00:51:09
frenetically you know spending and working too
much and you know looking at all these different
00:51:15
opportunities and I realized wait a minute like my
job here is not to win some finite game like this
00:51:21
is not ending like a basketball game or a soccer
match this is like I'm trying to be in this thing
00:51:25
for 50 years so my goal is to survive and the
reason why I say that is my ideology is very fluid
00:51:33
I have to be able to adapt to market conditions
as they change because if I want to be irrelevant
00:51:37
you know person in the world and 50 years from
now first rule of business is don't go out of
00:51:43
business second rule of businesses don't forget
rule number one run you know so in that context
00:51:49
I think it's a very practical thing that we just
have to deal with China and make sure that they do
00:51:54
not use syrup America's standing in the world as
the most important country of the world just for
00:52:01
me it's ideological I just don't want a communist
country I don't care but that is torturing their
00:52:06
citizens as the number one how do you in the world
I think it's really dangerous I have a real issue
00:52:10
with this like I don't think you have the right
to judge just like Californians can't judge Texans
00:52:15
and Texans can't judge Floridians oh no it's that
you're wrong you absolutely should judge people
00:52:20
know are torturing people and not allowing people
that freedom of speech yeah you should judge them
00:52:25
actually actually to human rights violations I
think you should judge people I I think that we
00:52:30
there's there's a lot of that stuff in America
that you stay silent no that's not true I am
00:52:34
absolutely for cannabis anybody who's arrested for
cannabis violations and low-level drug things I
00:52:39
think we they should be let out of Freight out
of jail just like JB Pritzker did in Chicago
00:52:44
I mean and I think the death penalty should be
repealed too because we don't apply it properly
00:52:47
those are the number one and two things probably
the United States that go against the human rights
00:52:52
the Declaration of Human Rights and I'm actually
very Pro fixing those things I was totally against
00:52:58
waterboarding and I think that was the worst
moment in my in American history hiya I honestly
00:53:02
I honestly think that like China's gonna do China
you know India is gonna be India and instead of
00:53:08
getting caught up in our own ideology you should
change it in your own country and then make sure
00:53:16
that the other country doesn't win well and
that's my point is do do you believe engagement
00:53:21
with China leads them towards democracy and better
human rights conditions for their citizens or not
00:53:25
and I think the fool's errand that is an absolute
it worked for East Berlin and it did work and
00:53:31
saving Europe from the Nazis so that the boundary
conditions are entirely different and China has
00:53:35
proven that it works Europeans were genetically
bred to be lazy oligarchs okay everybody I think
00:53:44
we just got kicked out of the iTunes Store saxy
poo yeah China hawk-dove engagement isolation
00:53:52
where do you stand you heard Sharma say his
position where do you stand yeah decoupling from
00:53:58
China is gonna be a bipartisan issue now I think
but both can it's now will be well Trump is gonna
00:54:05
is gonna run blaming China for for what happened
and I don't think Y is gonna be defending China in
00:54:14
fact they're gonna try and pecking with the whole
Beijing Biden label and he's Paul Guinea to try
00:54:19
and out Trump Trump on on China so decoupling is
gonna happen it doesn't really make sense for us
00:54:25
to be dependent on China for our antibiotics
for our medicines for our PPE for it you know
00:54:31
any of these you know any of these products that
are important for national survival I think all
00:54:39
that stuff is gonna come back home I think you
know trading with them for other things might
00:54:44
be poison all things had to start fundamentally
strategic the same way I think that can continue
00:54:51
but you know the thing about trade is it creates
interdependence and I don't think that this
00:54:58
country's going to want to be dependent on China
for anything strategic anymore two questions for
00:55:02
you David what is China's liability if any at this
point with this pandemic obviously if they you
00:55:11
know didn't they withheld information or silenced
whistleblowers that's a whole different level and
00:55:16
then tick tock should we allowed to talk in this
country should we if we're not allowed to have
00:55:24
Facebook or Twitter in China take those questions
either what do you want well the on liability I
00:55:30
mean I think yeah the reliability is is huge I
mean there's still a bunch of questions we got
00:55:37
a answer around where exactly the virus came from
but the the really fateful decision that I think
00:55:44
China made is when they shut down travel to Wuhan
to and from Wuhan you know with respect to other
00:55:53
parts of China but they let people from Wuhan just
kind of you know leave to go all over the world
00:55:59
and so you know they weren't letting people from
Wuhan go to other parts of China but they were
00:56:06
able to come to the US and so I think they do have
a huge liability but are we gonna hold them to it
00:56:13
no I mean as a practical matter you know we're not
gonna you know it'd be it'd be a mistake to to try
00:56:21
and change the principal sovereign immunity and
the courts but I think in terms of popular opinion
00:56:26
they do have they're not there ways to there are
other ways to quote-unquote punish them like I
00:56:32
mean and the US is already doing it so you know
for example the u.s. is limiting and constraining
00:56:36
kua ways ability to get access to 5g and so you
know it really forces China to either by European
00:56:43
and American equipment which is essentially
to say that you know the the five eyes will be
00:56:47
able to basically spy into China or they have to
basically you know storm into Taiwan and take over
00:56:54
TSMC I mean so there are there are all these other
gambits and strategies that one can take without
00:57:00
getting ideology ideologically caught up and you
know Chinese human rights because they're not
00:57:05
going to change yeah I mean look all wealth comes
from trade you know whether it's at the level of
00:57:12
individuals or nations wealth comes from trade
and so it'd be silly for us to say that we're
00:57:17
just never gonna have trade with China but I think
that you know trade also creates interdependence
00:57:23
and so we're not gonna I don't think continue to
engage in to depend on them for thing as an idol
00:57:28
to our national survival and so you know that
that's gonna be the change and the other thing
00:57:33
is you know we're gonna demand that the trade be
more reciprocal take the tic-tock example well you
00:57:40
know what we're probably gonna happen is that the
the tic-tock will probably be caught up in some
00:57:44
larger negotiation and you know is the quid pro
quo well test like SS all cars in China and tick
00:57:51
tock has to operate in the u.s. maybe but you
know III don't think tick tock it sort of falls
00:57:58
into the you know necessary for national survival
category so it really falls into the reciprocity
00:58:05
you know principle and the question I guess will
be are we getting enough in return to allow them
00:58:11
to operate here and I think that's the way that
all this commerce is gonna is gonna start working
00:58:15
and that's the thing at least we can like confront
our hypocrisy so Jason I don't disagree with you
00:58:20
about how you know gross the human rights record
is I just think it's a joke that we all sort of
00:58:26
like cry foul like it's like the biggest thing
in the world when we can't even clean up our own
00:58:31
yard and then meanwhile we continue to trade
with them that's just utterly utterly yeah so
00:58:34
that's why I think we have to continue to work
on cleaning our backyard while continuing to
00:58:40
innovate and find our own backyard meanwhile win
the game against China and winning the game is not
00:58:45
basically pushing for human rights reforms it's
making sure as David said we have a better trade
00:58:50
balance and making and making sure that like you
know that the critical parts of the supply chain
00:58:54
and infrastructure that America needs for national
security isn't dependent on a third party who have
00:58:59
completely different incentives than we do and
then there's also like soft things like why is
00:59:04
the you know why are we taking American movies
and changing the ends in order to have them sold
00:59:11
in China like they're literally corrupting our
art and that incremental dollar that Hollywood's
00:59:17
getting or whichever you know person trading with
China is getting I think it's not worth giving up
00:59:21
what makes America unique and a leader in the
world Freiberg you thoughts on China there's
00:59:25
about a hundred and twelve million people in
China that work in factories factories in China
00:59:31
are purpose-built so they're built to make a thing
and then they got to get retooled if you want to
00:59:36
make another thing you take those two facts it's
very hard to kind of replace China that's a source
00:59:43
of production for a lot of what we consume in this
country that's the reality so there's two ways you
00:59:50
could go and then there's two kind of necessities
and you end up with a matrix of like two by two
00:59:55
you could be couple from China and basically
recreate that same production system here in
01:00:02
the United States and that just wouldn't [ __ ] be
possible like we don't have enough people to work
01:00:06
we don't have the ability to do that the cost of
everything would go up by 5x we could invent new
01:00:12
systems of production which we have the ability
to 3d printing bio manufacturing all these other
01:00:18
kind of really interesting ways of making stuff
that could replace the old factories that are run
01:00:22
in China similar to kind of what maybe Elon has
tried to do with his automated you know factory
01:00:28
with Tesla and so through automation through 3d
printing through bio manufacturing you can kind
01:00:33
of change the methods of doing this stuff if we
could do that then we could be couple from China
01:00:37
so the reality is like I don't know like how we
continue to consume things at the you know it's
01:00:44
a percentage of wallet chair for that come from
China without rebuilding how you make stuff no
01:00:49
but that's the whole point by the way I think the
reason why that's valuable is that that's the best
01:00:53
way for us to actually get back to an inflationary
psycho as well so I completely agree with you it
01:00:59
is incredibly inefficient it'll be incredibly
costly but that's where I think you shift the
01:01:03
balance of power so that instead of all the powers
sitting on the side of Capitol you shifted to the
01:01:10
side of labor labor demands for wages and then all
of a sudden cost go up input cost go up prices go
01:01:17
up inflation exists and that fixes a lot of our
debt problems it fixes our deflationary supercycle
01:01:23
it fixes a lot of things and so so if things got
more expensive it would be good for vehicle yeah
01:01:29
even but even look even with maximal like looked
at replaced 112 million workers in China with some
01:01:36
number of Americans you know I'm not sure you
could make all the stuff you need to make here
01:01:41
yeah I mean there's other countries too I mean
I think people are moving factor Japanese or
01:01:47
moving factories to Taiwan and Vietnam yeah yeah
but if we create new methods of production which
01:01:51
were uniquely positioned to do we can completely
reinvent the wheel at a lot of industries and
01:01:56
actually produce for the world yeah right now you
know China exports physical goods the US exports
01:02:02
of virtual goods and if we want to get into the
business of making physical goods we have to just
01:02:07
do it 10x better we have the ability to do that
we just got to get the [ __ ] will so if I were
01:02:11
to take three trillion dollars of federal money
and you know Treasury bonds and hope that they
01:02:16
don't turn into junk bonds I would basically turn
that money into reinventing the systems of like
01:02:21
how do we made stuff using these new technologies
that the u.s. is uniquely positioned to capitalize
01:02:25
on and you know I love this one read Burghley
one u.s. we're having to make a could make the
01:02:30
same thing that a hundred Chinese workers right
there you go I love it that's and I think that's
01:02:34
where we got to an hour into this Freiberg
you win you got the best and the hottest tag
01:02:39
you know a group is if we are gonna bring back
manufacturing let's leapfrog it let's just go
01:02:44
let's just you don't have to keep letting a make
you know socks or iPhones but you know let's make
01:02:51
the next automated factories and the 3d printing
factories here and by a manufacturer anybody have
01:02:56
anybody have anything they need to promote or
plug at the end of the podcast anything they're
01:02:59
working on that people should know about no but
I love you guys I [ __ ] miss you I wanted to
01:03:04
kiss all of you on the belt Wow just exactly what
I was thinking sure Martha I was about to so back
01:03:10
at you I've been I've been locked down for three
months I'm lost my mind I mean this is May 12th
01:03:16
for me and I think we all got to go to Mexico
and see Sachs for a yeah let's add some friends
01:03:22
come down and we play golf and no one wore masks
within our little circle and nobody got sick and
01:03:28
you know and you're all be tested we haven't been
tested but we don't know any symptoms I got tested
01:03:35
twice negative both times and it was a very weird
thing because I'm think I'm Freiburg correct me if
01:03:41
I'm wrong I would I should be rooting that I had
it and it didn't do anything to me right totally
01:03:46
by the way let me just say one more thing that's
a really interesting finding this paper came out
01:03:52
a few days ago that shows that 40 to 60% of the
population that has never been exposed to SARS
01:03:58
coronavirus to the current corn virus already have
activated t-cells to the virus and the reason is
01:04:04
that they've had other coronaviruses there
were common cold and they've developed this
01:04:10
immune response so this may explain why a large
percentage of people are just so asymptomatic and
01:04:14
totally fine it's a pretty astounding finding
and so you could get checked for those other
01:04:20
antibodies or you know B's B's activated t-cells
and know if you're in a good position to kind
01:04:25
of ward off the microRNA Larson that's another
thing we should probably do that's 60% of people
01:04:29
that already have this by the way that won't stop
the spreading that person will still get infected
01:04:34
and spread but they're you know immune response
is such that they'll shut the thing down pretty
01:04:39
quickly so would you call this like some parallel
or shadow herd immunity or individual immunity
01:04:46
its individual immunity and it's related to just
process reactivity with other coronaviruses and
01:04:52
so we've already developed it immune response
to other Crona viruses that gives us seem like
01:04:55
seemingly a pretty good response to this corona
virus for you know more than half ok veedu
01:05:00
population on a percentage basis how how much do
we know about this virus just as we wrap up here
01:05:07
if you had to state a percentage of like in two
years we're gonna know a hundred percent or ninety
01:05:12
percent about the virus whatever it is what do we
know now we know everything about the virus itself
01:05:19
we are very like like with any virus we know very
little about how it effects a specific human based
01:05:26
on their genotype meaning based on your health and
your your genes here's what this virus is gonna do
01:05:32
to your body and we're not going to know that
in two years and we're not gonna know that we
01:05:35
don't know that for most viruses for humans today
the matching of genotype to genotype of viral but
01:05:40
I've if we understand X amount about the HIV virus
or Ebola what do we know now if you Jimmy maybe a
01:05:48
bola would be the best one like we have pretty
good knowledge of that after X number of years
01:05:52
what do we know now and a percentage basis of
course we had to guess I get we we know everything
01:05:56
about the virus itself like 100 percent or okay
about this yeah the human response to the virus
01:06:01
and why it's called yeah these weird symptoms
with different people and so on yeah I'd say
01:06:05
we're probably I don't know forty percent thirty
percent we've kind of mapped the outcome but we
01:06:10
haven't mapped the progress to the outcome in the
human body all right listen great job mouth great
01:06:15
job David Sachs great job David Freiburg if you
want to subscribe to the podcast type in all in
01:06:20
with trim off and love you guys besties yeah all
right shuffle up and deal can't wait to see that
01:06:28
new table and let's get back to where you goddamn
masks people wear a mask wear a mask okay be safe