00:00:00
what did you think about that reservation article thing oh that's crazy well this is a great topic there
00:00:06
is a guy a pretty industrious kid it turns out what this kid's been doing is he's been getting Carbone reservations
00:00:12
other top tier reservations and by the way everybody's had this as an app idea nobody's really executed it that well I
00:00:17
don't want to give any plugs for any apps right now but he has been selling $70,000 he's been flipping restaurant
00:00:24
reservations for upwards of a, bucks jth you're very uh industrious and you're Tipper 100% Tipper
00:00:32
minimum I know this because when I paid for dinner one time at Carbone you took me and Phil helmet's Cards and you said
00:00:40
you guys pay and I'm going to put the tip in and then I had to sell Uber shares to cover it that was gross that
00:00:47
was gross I've never had problem getting a reservation at any restaurant in New York yeah they see you coming you know
00:00:53
what they see 10 dimes worth of wine I have taught many of my friends how to get reservations I have a a series tips
00:01:01
that I could give but I don't want to give too many of them away but nobody gives tips to matri anymore saak you tip
00:01:08
the Mator day with cash oh all the time yeah sure of course right see this is why sax and I get along saak is a legit
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old school guy yeah sax is Elite he's got the $100 bill pressed into his palm shakes the guy's hand I'll tip the
00:01:22
bartender to keep the ice cubes cold I the bartender got 100 just for keeping the ice cubes cold there you go oh
00:01:30
know for you know for you let your winners ride Rainman DAV and instead we open source it to the
00:01:43
fans and they've just gone crazy with [Music] it this is my tip it has worked I'm GNA
00:01:52
give it out here and the reason I'm giving this out is because y'all are cheap and not you but just a lot of
00:01:58
y'all out there and you don't know the art in Brooklyn everybody gets tipped we tip the phone guy when he comes to fix
00:02:03
your phone at your house everybody gets tipped so here's what I would do and you
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can do this with a 20 you can do it with a F50 you know if you're going to some great place you can do it with a Hyundai
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you fold it twice as chamat says you put it in your palm you walk up to the matri
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stand if there's anybody in line you just cut it and you go to the side of the table you put your hand on the
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matrid stand you push the hand over here's the m s you just slide your hand over and you reveal the 50 and you say I
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am so sorry I was supposed to make a reservation I don't know if my assistant did it or not she probably didn't
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however I'm a huge fan of the restaurant if there's anything you could do for me
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I made a stupid mistake to not make a reservation if somebody cancels I'll be at the bar if there's any way you could
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accommodate me I truly appreciate only in town for one night when I say 99 times out of a 100
00:02:56
it works the one time it didn't work how much are you tipping 100 it used to be 20 when I lived in New York now I
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regularly do 50 and the reason I do it is I don't like giving money to charity I feel like
00:03:07
these Charities are all a giant scam and I like to give it to service people like
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is it awkward when you tip $50 in ones like that like doesn't it become realistic it's a little harder to hold
00:03:16
in your hand I used to use a roll of quarters actually that was awkward the roll of quarters was a little bit hard
00:03:22
the 50 is easy I'm just asking everybody here if you hear my voice please go tip your
00:03:29
matred 20 or 50 and report back if my technique works because what you're doing in the framing is you're saying
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you made a mistake and then you make it so the person doesn't feel like you're bribing them or paying them off they're
00:03:41
helping you solve a problem so anyway it's kind of like when I troll David and I'm like hey freeberg uh with the with
00:03:47
the sum whatever he's like I'll do all the work forget about it you just got to reframe it all right let's get started
00:03:52
here is a bribe that is a bribe yeah it is in fact a bribe yeah I consider it a uh it's interesting you bring up you're
00:04:01
creating plausible deniability but it's still a bride I consider it a tip in advance servic no you're not tipping him
00:04:07
for good service you're tipping him to basically break the in line yeah you you're taking away somebody else's
00:04:15
spot and you're paying him to break the rules it's you know what your shift to man of the
00:04:22
people brilliant move it's a bribe a it's not a bribe you're you're not even really doing him a favor you're doing
00:04:28
yourself a favor all right let's unpack you're such a populist so brilliant I hate you he just figures out a way to
00:04:37
get those populous votes no here's what it is because I had this argument with my my you gave him
00:04:43
the 50 just for doing a good job even if you had the reservation is what you're saying I am so confident in how good the
00:04:49
service is going to be I'm giving a pre-tip I consider it a pre-tip oh my God a pre tip if he gives you a
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reservation when you don't have one I am happy to not get the money back if they
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can't accommodate me one time it happened the woman at Asia to CU New York in the90s said here's your 20 back
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and she said I'm really sorry there's nothing I can do I would love it's very lovely of you to give me the tip and she
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handed it back to me and I said keep it and she said no but uh I I got uh the bartender is gonna take care of you at
00:05:17
the bar so well that ends well all right let's get started everybody we have a full docket for you today and story of
00:05:25
the week as voted by besties we have a new system here instead of me sorting the docket the besties give a thumbs up
00:05:32
thumbs down this one I think had two of three people voted for it one person didn't vote this week and that is zuck's
00:05:39
scorched Earth AI strategy as you probably know if you're in Tech meta was the first big tech company to fully
00:05:47
Embrace open source AI llama leaked last year folks said that it wasn't leaked it
00:05:54
was released covertly or on the slide DL by the folks at meta but they just just
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released llama 3 and I talked to some deep about this a whole bunch last week it just came out a few days ago and it's
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already in the top two models on hugging faces leaderboard you can take a look at
00:06:10
hugging faces leaderboard it's basically where uh it's the most trusted place I think where people Benchmark these
00:06:16
things developers are saying it's faster it's less preachy was an observation than chat GPT 4 despite being slightly
00:06:23
lower quality they also have some small models that are performing really well they also announced very interesting
00:06:29
open sourcing the quest operating system called metah Horizons OS the OS Powers the mixed reality headsets VR all that
00:06:37
kind of stuff AR but here's the big news this one is amazing Instagram Facebook and WhatsApp are integrating a search
00:06:44
box or their AI assistant chat box into all their apps worth noting meta came out with their results just the other
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day and we're taping this on Thursday as you know comes out Friday their stock is
00:06:55
down as much as 16% after reporting its q1 earnings beat estimates but uh Zuck is saying
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he's going to spend a bucket load of cash on infrastructure shath it's your all mamada you worked side by side with
00:07:09
Zuck growing Facebook from what 10 20 million to 400 million ma what do you think of his 00 million when I left okay
00:07:18
what are your thoughts on gold chain Zuck and his new strategy the pivot away from VR to AR Ai and going full Allin so
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to speak on open source they're taking a play that we talked about which makes a
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ton of sense which is it's not a core Market but it's very important the core money-making market for them is
00:07:42
monetizing their family of apps and so they're scorching the Earth for these new markets so that the economics are
00:07:50
not viable which will I think allow a more robust ecosystem where they'll have more of a say because I think up in
00:07:59
until this point you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind open AI but I don't think
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that's the case and by the way this is the strategy that we talked about 16 months ago that these big companies
00:08:12
should take I just think it's worth listening to what what we said and then basically what Zuck said just right now
00:08:18
here we go this is a black and white flashback chth in turtleneck go I think that Google will open- Source their
00:08:26
models because the most important thing that Google can do is reinforce the value of search and the best way to do
00:08:33
that is to Scorch the Earth with these models which is to make them widely available and as free as possible that
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will cause Microsoft to have to catch up and that will cause Facebook to have to
00:08:44
really look in the mirror and decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made on arvr and reallocate
00:08:52
very aggressively to AI that should be what Facebook does and and the reason is if Facebook and Google and Microsoft
00:08:58
have rough roughly the same capability and the same model there's an element of machine learning called reinforcement
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learning and specifically it's reinforcement learning from Human feedback Facebook has an enormous amount
00:09:10
of reinforcement learning inside of Facebook every click every comment every like every share the huge companies will
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create the substrates and I think they'll be forced to Scorch the Earth and give it away for free now you can
00:09:26
see what Zuck said last week look at this a little Victory lap here it's probably also pretty bad
00:09:33
for one institution to have an AI that is way more powerful than everyone else's Ai
00:09:40
and I kind of think that a world where AI is very widely deployed in a in a way where it's gotten hardened um
00:09:48
progressively over time and is one where all the different systems will be in check in a way that seems like it is
00:09:56
fundamentally more healthy to me than one where this is more concentrated that is I think the definition of scorched
00:10:02
Earth so and he's he's running a really perfect play so far he's open sourced the headset OS he's opening
00:10:09
Source these models he stopped training I think for llama 35 was it and now he's
00:10:15
moved directly to llama 4 just to try to head off GPT 5 at the pass so what are we seeing we're seeing the economic
00:10:23
value getting disintegrated there is no value in foundational models economically so then the question is who
00:10:29
can build on top of them the fastest and Jason to your point llama was announced
00:10:34
last Thursday 14 hours later grock actually had that model deployed in the gro Cloud so that 100,000 plus
00:10:41
developers could start building on it that's why that model is so popular so it puts the closed models on their heels
00:10:49
because if you can't both train and deploy iteratively and quickly enough these open source Alternatives will win
00:10:57
and as a result the economic potential that you have to monetize those models will not be there and what that does is
00:11:03
reinforce the existing economic moat that Facebook already has in monetizing their apps now why the stock went down
00:11:10
I'd like to talk in contrast to Tesla a little bit later because this has nothing to do with that and it's more
00:11:16
about squares versus sharps in the stock market uh freeberg your thoughts on meta
00:11:22
embracing going all in on AI you were at Google uh you're Alma mat up and you watched them
00:11:30
be proprietary and closed when it came to search and the search algorithm but open source when they were behind and
00:11:38
and that's the I guess the phrase we use here in Silicon Valley when you're behind you use open source to catch up
00:11:44
and when you're ahead you close everything down Facebook famously shut down all access to their apis you can't
00:11:51
get into the social graph but they're going open here why because they're behind your thoughts on this from say a
00:11:58
Google perspective Ive and then maybe how Google might react and then just broadly do you think open source wins
00:12:05
the day getting to AGI I would say the analogy for Google is Android where Google open sourced the Android
00:12:14
operating system because the handset manufacturers and some of the big software companies so Nokia and
00:12:21
Microsoft in particular Blackberry had these closed proprietary operating systems and then the Telos put their
00:12:30
apps on and made money and basically had control over whether or not people could
00:12:33
access Google and Google services through their phone so the intention with open sourcing Android was to make
00:12:39
sure that Google was not disadvantaged in their Core Business over time I think that there's a similar analogy here that
00:12:45
by open- sourcing these models they limit competition because VCS are no longer going to plow half a billion
00:12:51
dollars into a foundational model development company so you limit the commercial interest and the commercial
00:12:57
value of foundational models now the capex question is is a really hard one to diagnose because we don't know how
00:13:04
they're spending the money where they're spending the money what they're doing in
00:13:06
there I think that it's a really important sign that founder-led companies with these voting
00:13:13
rights you know have the ability to make these sorts of hard decisions that it might be very difficult for a management
00:13:21
by committee group to make got it look at how Mark is making these decisions and Elon is making big tough decisions
00:13:28
that it would very likely be pushed back on if they didn't have the Voting Rights
00:13:32
if they didn't have the control over the company that they had it's a great point
00:13:36
about founder Authority I think that's a really Salient point a shout out to Zuck
00:13:41
would really be great to get him at the Allin Summit saak we have some breaking news here it turns out llama 3 they just
00:13:46
tested it in the benchmarks it says here you can make the founding fathers any race you like it's a really interesting
00:13:51
feature uh any thoughts on Facebook's strategy here you are a master strategist David Sachs give it your
00:13:59
master strategy here 1700 uh chess rating sax well we we kind of glossed over what the real news was which was
00:14:07
that meta released llama 3 which they had spent billions of dollars creating in in a completely open source way and
00:14:15
the testing on llama 3 is that it's comparable to GPT 4 and I think this is what jth means by scorched Earth is that
00:14:22
we now have a free model that's as good as G best in class or at least tied for Best in Class
00:14:29
there are some slight differences and we've been playing around with it it is faster and cheaper than using
00:14:38
chat GPT 4 but the context window is smaller I think it has only an 8,000 token context window so that's something
00:14:46
that the open source Community is going to need to work on is you know Rolling Out Foundation models have a bigger
00:14:51
context window nonetheless the point is that at least for now until open AI comes out
00:14:58
with GPT 5 which is supposed to happen soon the open source Community has kind of caught
00:15:04
up with the top Clos Source model which is open AI will they blow past the closed Source model
00:15:12
sex well I I still think that open AI is ahead because the scuttlebutt about Chad
00:15:19
GPT 5 is that it's amazing and it's a big improvement over GPT 4 and supposedly it's going to come out any
00:15:25
day week or month so if GPT 5 comes out and knocks our socks off in a few weeks then we're going to see that oh they're
00:15:34
actually a cycle ahead of the open source Community but as of this moment in terms of what's been publicly
00:15:40
released I think it's fair to say that open source is largely caught up with open Ai and this is why you know bring
00:15:48
up this tweet by Naveen Ral who is a Founder who created the company Mosaic ml which is sold to data bricks for
00:15:55
unicorn outcome and he says I don't think everyone has comprehended the M disruption and Distortion that's going
00:16:01
to happen in the Gen Market due to llama 3 Moes will be destroyed and investments
00:16:05
will go to zero just like everything in geni this will all happen fast so you know it's a similar reaction to what
00:16:12
jamath is saying which is we have a open source model now that erases billions of
00:16:19
dollars of private investment and by the way you just said something really interesting before which is okay there's
00:16:25
a limitation right you mentioned the context window which was a problem I just found this thing today they
00:16:33
solved it now they're at 96k cont so to your point Saks this Market is moving so fast because you cannot
00:16:41
compete with open source so all these closed models which means open Ai and a bunch of these other folks especially
00:16:47
the ones that are sitting inside of these smaller companies right snowflake has a model I think data brick has a
00:16:53
model there's a important question that has to be asked around the economic viability of these models in a world
00:16:59
where open source is not only better and better funded but they're iterating faster and the feature set is catching
00:17:06
up to your needs so the minute that sack says he needs a longer context window within a week it's there that's pretty
00:17:13
intense yeah I think this is like one of the what do you think j.co well I've I've got a totally uh different take on
00:17:20
this obviously I agree with all you you've said here in terms of the open source and the dramatic effect it's
00:17:25
going to have on pricing but there's something people are missing if you go to meta for a second Nick and you pull
00:17:31
it up what you'll see is they've dedicated The Meta URL to a search like experience and then they've put a search
00:17:41
box at the top of Instagram WhatsApp and Facebook and so they are going to put search engine essentially their
00:17:52
modern search engine which is starting from zero in front of three billion people using metas collector C of
00:17:59
services and so just like apple and Firefox were able to intercept search traffic I think and I'll just make a
00:18:05
prediction here that met is going to get 10 points of the search market now each
00:18:09
point of the search Market is worth you know what is Google's worth about two trillion if you take out 500 billion for
00:18:16
YouTube and their other services you get 1.5 trillion which means 10 points is worth 50 150 billion in market
00:18:22
cap now as you well know chamath and you all know David these two ad Networks meta started with psychographic data the
00:18:31
person who they know and then of course Google had the greatest advertising product ever intent you type in Volvo
00:18:38
you type in Tesla type in Tesla Santa Monica used you know you don't have to guess what the person is interested in
00:18:44
at that moment well for the first time you know one of these ad networks has content data and psychographic and
00:18:51
they're going to be able to put it together and I think they take 10 points of search but more importantly they're
00:18:56
going to have data on individual that will be unrivaled in the advertising space now Google tried to do this
00:19:04
themselves they did something called Google Plus I don't know if you were there freeberg during the Google+ era
00:19:09
they spent billions of dollars on a social network it failed they shut it down because they wanted to get that so
00:19:15
looking at this I think man there's so much going on on open source but now Google we haven't talked about Google's
00:19:22
role in all of this and Sundar being a Hired Gun not having founder authority to your point freeberg you know I think
00:19:29
they're going after Google search business as well as you know taking away and commoditizing all of the open source
00:19:36
so we might be sitting here in three or four years watching meta have I don't know 10 nobody nobody has search it's
00:19:44
just that Google can't afford to lose anything yeah everybody takes a point here and a point there and all of a
00:19:49
sudden Google could be in the high 70s of search and that would be economically disastrous for their stock yeah you're
00:19:56
going to have to make Cuts why do you guys think the stock is down why is a stock down 16% I I have a theory as to
00:20:02
what that tell us your theory go for it I think that there's a few times a quarter where you
00:20:10
can really see the dispersion in the stock market between what I would call the smart money and everybody else so
00:20:16
you know using betting language the sharps and the squares and I think meta was an example of the sharps
00:20:27
taking a line which I think is very accurate and Tesla was the other great example this
00:20:33
quarter and so if you look inside of meta and this freedberg mentioned this earlier I think freeberg what people
00:20:39
really reacted negatively to was the total Quantum of spending and the idea that it's misallocated not to AI but
00:20:48
specifically to Nvidia and the reason is that and we've mentioned this before I've tried to talk a lot about this with
00:20:55
Jonathan Ross from grock but AI is really two markets training and inference and inference is going to be a
00:21:03
100 times bigger than training and Nvidia is really good at training and very miscast at inference
00:21:10
the problem is that right now we need to see a capex build cycle for inference and there are so many cheap and
00:21:19
effective Solutions grock being one of them but there are many others and I think why
00:21:25
the market reacted very negatively was it did not seem that Facebook understood that distinction that they were way
00:21:32
overspending and trying to allocate a bunch of GPU capacity towards inference that didn't make sense and so I think
00:21:38
what people were saying is hold on a second so far your plays are perfect it's everything we want you to do we
00:21:45
want you to Scorch the Earth we want you to open source the headset but we also want you to understand the difference
00:21:51
between training and inference and a little bit more of a Nuance way build up the inference capacity but spend a lot
00:21:56
less money because you don't need to spend it on Nvidia and the reason is the sharps know that
00:22:01
Nvidia cannot do inference and so I think that's why the stock is down this much and I think it's important for
00:22:06
people who care about AI but also May traffic in Nvidia to understand why the sharps think that and I think several of
00:22:15
us have tried to explain it now for the last couple of weeks but it is miscast and so you're overspending up next Tesla
00:22:21
earnings elon's master plan part two is going well as planned again this was voted up by our panel here here in our
00:22:29
group chat last time we covered Tesla was episode 164 early February after a Delaware judge voided elon's pay package
00:22:36
since then Tesla has made some giant moves they launched fsd2 I've been using it it's pretty great also they cut the
00:22:44
price of FSD by oneir from 12K to 8K I think you can also get it for 100 bucks a month and they announced a 10% riff
00:22:51
going to cut 14,000 employees always painful to do that they're looking to reincorporate in Texas leaving Delaware
00:22:59
for obvious reasons earlier this week Tesla shares were down more than 40% year to date mostly due to a decrease in
00:23:05
demand for EVS market caps dropped from 750 billion to 460 billion shares from 12% when theyve reported q1 earnings on
00:23:14
Tuesday investors got excited after Elon announced that Tesla's new line of models could start production at the end
00:23:20
of the year or maybe even early 2025 he shared some thoughts on the robo taxi or cyber cab which he talked about
00:23:30
maybe five or six years ago and he has had in the master plan for a long time shth you made some great calls on Tesla
00:23:38
and made some great trades there back in the day your thoughts on Tesla in 2024 Sharps love it this is another one
00:23:49
Sharps versus the squares why did the sharps love it why did it go up and everybody was so confused and I think
00:23:54
the answer is that he's actually executing exactly the plan and so if you're investing in a stock what you
00:24:00
really want is a CEO to kind of stick to a plan that is wellknown so we don't have to actually guess what the plan is
00:24:08
because he puts it out on the website look at the master plan part du and if you start reading down everything that
00:24:15
he said he's going to do starting in 2016 is basically what it is so let's take the first part right what did he
00:24:20
say in the first part he said Hey listen guys this is 2016 we're going to build a
00:24:25
model 3 we're going to build a compact SUV the model why we're going to build a new kind of pickup truck okay check
00:24:31
check and check then he said oh by the way we're also probably going to have to do a heavy duty truck and a high
00:24:36
passenger density Urban transport vehicle so that's the robo taxi thing that he's going to announce in August
00:24:42
okay check and check and then he talks about the software and the investment in FSD and trying to get to a place where
00:24:48
you know you can just have a much higher probability that it will save you from an accident and it'll keep you safe when
00:24:54
you're driving your car which will be a large driver of why people want to buy the cars themselves and you can see like
00:25:00
these FSD miles so if you're a smart Capital allocator what you actually saw was a
00:25:07
dislocated stock price what you saw was a plan that by and large he's been executing on at a strategic
00:25:15
level underneath there's the vicisitudes what are the vicisitudes sometimes you over hire you need to trim some fat
00:25:22
sometimes you overspend on capex now he spent about a billion of of capex this quarter on on AI infrastructure so h100s
00:25:30
for training but the market saw through it because that was a reasonable amount of money to spend on training for FSD
00:25:37
right so you can start to see the tale of these two reactions the sharps looked at the capital allocation and said okay
00:25:44
you missed by two and a half billion this quarter but that's going to create a buying opportunity because we think
00:25:50
it's roughly mispriced and we think it's misprice because going back to this plan
00:25:54
from 2016 this is all the things that we've been underwriting from billion of market cap to 750 and now we're getting
00:26:01
a 40% discount to buy back in so I think it's a really interesting moment to just
00:26:08
contrast and compare what Sharps look at and then what the media breathlessly exaggerates and I think what they wanted
00:26:18
was to lionize The Meta earning story but the sharps rejected it and they wanted to dump on Elon and the sharps
00:26:27
rejected that ins size in both cases and it's just a reminder to all of us be very careful what you're reading because
00:26:34
if you just took the headlines you would have expected the two reactions to be exactly opposite but when you vote with
00:26:39
money it's very clear and unambiguous because you actually move in the direction of accuracy and that's what
00:26:45
the stock market allows you to see and I think this is a really interesting contrast and compare of Sharps versus
00:26:50
squares here yeah just well recapped uh for those who don't know sharps in gambling are people like or alob friend
00:26:56
of the Pod who who are just the sharpest betters in gambling vicissitude that's an unpleasant change in circumstances
00:27:04
for those of you who don't know the word saxs I don't know if you want to comment I mean you and I are biasing
00:27:11
this with the relationship with Elon any any thoughts on chat's take well I'm not
00:27:16
going to comment on the stock per se I mean Tesla's products are amazing they seem to be really executing well
00:27:23
there and I think that Elon foreshadowed on that earnings call was coming in the
00:27:28
future I'm personally really curious about the Optimus robot I mean that has the potential to create an entirely New
00:27:35
Market and bring about something that we've only seen in science fiction so to me that's very interesting I think in
00:27:42
terms of the company's problems I think they're mostly dealing with some macro forces so first of all the GDP growth
00:27:51
rate has slowed to 1.6% in q1 so this just came out and that was a notable slowdown relative to
00:28:00
expectations so first of all you're dealing with the slowing economy it seems like second High interest rates
00:28:06
mean that car payments are higher if you want to finance the purchase of a car your your car payments is going to be a
00:28:12
lot higher when interest rates are above 5% and I think that has been a pretty big headwind for Tesla and really all
00:28:18
the car companies over the last year or so but I would say that I think both of those things are ultimately cyclical and
00:28:25
what matters is Tesla's products I would say the only issue they have that's a real long-term issue is just the the
00:28:31
Chinese competition companies like bdy are ramping up production of knockoff products at low prices and so managing
00:28:42
the competition with China is probably the only one of these issues that's I think probably a long-term issue for
00:28:48
them to deal with let me ask a question here how do you rank these businesses energy Optimus
00:28:58
Trucking ride sharing energy Optimus the robot Trucking ride handling rank those
00:29:06
you're number one or two in terms of potential for Tesla chamat round the horn it's a good question ride sharing
00:29:14
is number one and the absolute probably by an order of magnitude and interesting
00:29:20
the reason I say that is in order for ride sharing and ride healing to really work the way that they Envision it you
00:29:27
will have level five autonomy supported in jurisdictions where again if you just look at partu
00:29:38
the whole point is you can summ summon a car from your app and if you don't have
00:29:42
access to a mobile phone you can go to these bus stop equivalents and just press a button and the car comes to you
00:29:48
and so in that world there's just so much value add in terms of Passenger safety and sustainability for the
00:29:55
environment and less traffic it's a gargantuan Game Changer meanwhile what's your number two sorry meanwhile I'm
00:30:05
sorry just to contrast Uber and Lyft seemingly are profitable because they find pricing power to raise prices so if
00:30:13
Tesla enters in as a third player in that field and just guts pricing which I think would make sense for them to do
00:30:18
yeah I think this thing is just Gang Busters nuclear that's a really interesting
00:30:24
point what do you got Sachs going around the horn here well I already said Optimist but that's Bas on a long-term
00:30:28
view yeah this is a long-term question based on the longterm one and two in the long term in terms of option value I'm
00:30:36
I'm am the most intrigued by the robot play and Elon has pointed out that once you have robots that are capable of
00:30:44
doing lots of different jobs pretty much any job you point them at that we could
00:30:50
have more robots on Earth than humans so it's it's a big future market so you got Optimus number one and who's
00:30:58
number two I agree with Jam in the short term that ride sharing could really reach its its logical conclusion with
00:31:07
with Robo taxis remember when you know Uber first gained Steam and people were speculating about how big the market
00:31:15
could be there was a lot of giddy talk about how car ownership would change and you wouldn't need to buy a car anymore
00:31:23
because you would just like use Uber all the time we called it going full Uber yeah yeah and I actually I went full
00:31:29
Uber or I I shouldn't say full I went mostly Uber like within a couple of years of discovering that product yeah
00:31:37
so I thought the potential was there but the problem is it was just too expensive
00:31:41
I mean Uber is still quite expensive and the most expensive piece of it is the human driving the car it's all that
00:31:47
labor cost so if you're able to charge for the ride purely based on fractionalizing the cap X and that
00:31:57
capex is even that high because they're making these Robo taxis pretty cheaply now and you're able to get so much more
00:32:04
utilization out of a car exactly right because I mean how many hours a day do you drive your own car like an hour
00:32:10
maybe less but a robo taxi 90% I think is the number uh on average that they're not used freeberg who's your one and
00:32:18
two I think the Optimus has the highest Alpha but the highest beta so you know more upside than anything else just
00:32:28
unclear how you get there what the path is and the capital requirements and I think there's going to be a lot of
00:32:36
commoditization in this space but the ride sharing is built in it's low beta and significant Alpha so so you're one
00:32:42
and two uh Optimus R share yeah Optimus R share chath what was your number two again just so I can recap here I would
00:32:49
actually probably pick energy and why would you pick energy as your number two after rideing I think it's a pretty
00:32:54
obvious disruption if so today in America if you look at the energy infrastructure the utilities keep
00:33:02
raising rates and they keep raising rates independent of what it costs to generate
00:33:08
energy there are 1,700 Utilities in America they are by law obligated to spend I think in the next 10 years about
00:33:18
$2 trillion doll on capex they will pass all of those costs plus a margin to Consumers even though
00:33:27
in these next 10 years the cost of generating an incremental unit of energy will be essentially free so I think the
00:33:33
very disruptive play is to take a hundred million homes and make them manyi utilities same one and what does it mean
00:33:42
make them utilities yeah you go to a website again the biggest investment I've made is in a company called
00:33:49
Palmetto they are close to now the largest residential solar business in the United States if
00:33:55
not the largest already now what what did they do you're a consumer you can go and lease or buy it doesn't really
00:34:01
matter and we give you a super cheap system that goes on top of your roof plus a battery system and all of a
00:34:07
sudden you're totally resilient and independent of the utilities and we help change the laws so that every time you
00:34:14
have excess energy you can put it back into the grid and get paid which is called net metering so if you have a
00:34:19
hundred million of these mini utilities competing against 1,700 incumbents that are forced to make huge Investments and
00:34:27
are mispriced that's a an upheaval of an enormous amount of market cap but also an enormous amount of debt there's like
00:34:35
trillions of dollars of debt so I've always thought a ginormous directional bet to make would be to go long the
00:34:42
disruptor the person that helps arm the rebels in this case would be the person that arms 100 million homes and then
00:34:48
eventually at some point just short the debt of these utilities because they won't be able to service them if enough
00:34:55
people quit and don't need pg& and everybody else it'll be just massively massively
00:35:00
disruptive so that's why I think that that market could be big I like the Optimus Market the only thing that I'll
00:35:08
say is in my experience when I've looked at these generalized robots the conclusion that I came to and I could be
00:35:14
totally wrong is I suspect instead of having a generalized robot you have very specific use case robots that look
00:35:22
differently so for example there's an example Nick you can throw a picture but there's something called intuitive
00:35:27
Surgical which is essentially a robot that's operates on you and if you look at that it doesn't look anything like
00:35:33
what you would think a robot would look like it just looks like a ginormous machine and so I suspect that there will
00:35:41
be people that become experts in these vertical use cases and that will limit The Tam for a generalized approach I
00:35:50
could be totally wrong but that's sort of why I rank them the way I rank them but I'm pretty convinced that robot
00:35:54
toxis are number one and and then this energy thing that upends these 1700 Utilities in America as number
00:36:01
two all right J Cal you are the third investor in Uber are you worried about your investment as I understand it you
00:36:07
still hav't sold have you I've sold slightly more than the majority of my Holdings over the years two private
00:36:14
transactions and then I held everything post going public and uh I'm still long Uber I I give number one to Optimus by
00:36:23
far in way because I think the build of materials on Optimus could be 10K or less I looked at some of these other
00:36:34
startups that are in the space and I've been studying it a little bit just out of curiosity and so at a 10K bomb I
00:36:41
think they could rench you one of these for $300 a month or something like that a subscription I think every human on
00:36:48
planet earth eventually will have a robot so I know that's crazy but I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety
00:36:56
of Tesla's other businesses number two is energy clearly I think and number three is riling number two energy fairly
00:37:04
obvious what's happening here if you look at what's happening with data centers it spiked I think from like
00:37:09
three or 4% of energy now to like is it 15% shth I think we had a discussion it's almost it's almost it's I think
00:37:16
it's 18% it's almost 20% it's a huge number now okay so we we don't tell the two stories together these h100s are
00:37:23
beasts cooling beasts this is like you can't even Phil Deutch was telling us in the group chat like you can't even cool
00:37:31
some of these places and what that means is there's going to be demand for energy
00:37:36
to chat's point if each home becomes a little provider you know it's going to create some regulation change I believe
00:37:43
I'm no expert on the regulations we should definitely have deuts on the PO at some point to talk about this but
00:37:48
imagine these um like in Texas they keep having the grids go down and in Australia they have the grids go down it
00:37:56
it's going to be so annoying for consumers to have the grids go down while demand spikes for data
00:38:01
centers all the regulations are going to get opened up to put batteries and solar
00:38:06
everywhere it's also dangerous I mean people die when these blackouts and outages occur and also like we saw in St
00:38:14
Carlos here in the Bay Area Nat gas lines explode PG is responsible for forest fires I mean if you can do your
00:38:22
part to basically get off these grids use some some like paletto or somebody else and just get solar Tesla
00:38:30
and be done with it and at least you're not contributing to some of these Downstream
00:38:35
errors yeah and so I I agree 100% And by the way if you can make money from your
00:38:42
solar and your batteries and somebody else picks up the cost of installation I think there's some Arbitrage here chath
00:38:49
to be had and I think that's like what you discovered when you did your first principal approach to this so I think
00:38:56
those two businesses will be far far bigger than anything else they're doing now on ride haing I'm using fsd2 I have
00:39:05
been using autopilot I was one of the first users of autopilot you know from the beginning
00:39:11
like literally and fsd2 is a significant Improvement that being said all of these
00:39:18
systems work really well in a controlled grid like we've seen with weo in Arizona
00:39:23
and in you know limited parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco I think that vision is five six seven years out from
00:39:30
having low single-digit percentages and you may have seen Uber has incorporated weo and the taxis in London into their
00:39:38
system I think Uber's ultimately going to be the place people go to call up one of 20 different self-driving I think a
00:39:47
lot of people are going to get there at the same time wouldn't be surprised if Elon gets there first but I think that's
00:39:52
five or 10 years out if I'm being totally honest you know in terms of getting to scale so I would never ever
00:39:58
bet against Elon seeing what he's done watching wait a second when are you saying that self-driving will be good
00:40:05
enough to power just one Robo taxi let's just forget about the scale just like when will it be good enough to have like
00:40:12
a steering wheel free car yeah so if you you can just look at Cruz and weo and you can have your
00:40:19
answer which is today in a contained environment with remote drivers intervening on some regular basis it
00:40:27
works s so people are taking wayo San Francisco LA on a pretty regular basis cruise I think got kicked out of San
00:40:32
Francisco but if in the cruise data there was a lot of interventions going on I suspect weo is doing a lot of
00:40:37
interventions so I think I don't want to be a proponent of this by the way but bleep out his name was saying
00:40:46
that Jason with FSD they're very strict that you have to be holding the steering
00:40:52
wheel and stuff but you can go to Alibaba and buy something that hacks that right it's a we a l I'm not
00:40:58
promoting that I'm Notting I'm not promoting this I'm just saying that it does anyway to answer
00:41:02
your question SX I think today or let's just say by the end of this year an fsd2
00:41:08
could be operating in a contrain space just like whmo is now to get it to all regions back
00:41:16
roads you know weather there's a lot of edge cases here so I think to the more important question is when can automated
00:41:23
be 5% of rides or 10% of rides and I think that's 5 or 10 years from now I do think a couple of people will reach that
00:41:29
moment at the same time well let me show you a video this is one of my co-workers
00:41:33
at craft took this this wasn't me but he was riding in the back of one of these Robo taxis I think this is San Francisco
00:41:40
or New York I'm not sure which one but there is no one in yeah the driver's seat yeah but there's a safety
00:41:49
driver watching this remote I believe which is what Cruz was doing and then when they get to a point where they
00:41:55
can't figure it out the human comes in inter I don't see a safety driver where's the safety driver no no a remote
00:42:02
safety driver remote remote but I have to say watching this video that is the coolest bloody thing I mean yeah this is
00:42:10
amazing I'll be honest I think it's underrated in terms of how significant this is going to be if this is a jaguar
00:42:17
look at that it's a Jaguar so you're telling me that Tesla's not gonna have something at least as good as this
00:42:24
better soon yeah I think they they have it already if you drive fsd2 I believe fsd2 probably could be working today in
00:42:34
San Francisco under a controlled grid with the remote drivers like the other people have if somebody knows about this
00:42:40
by the way can they send us information I'm Jason at cal.com for life just send me a picture I I'll keep it on the DL I
00:42:47
won't reveal sources of who these remote drivers are what their setup looks like
00:42:52
I I'm I'm very curious to understand how the remote drivers work for weo and Cruz
00:42:56
can they Park the car they can take the car with a joystick is my understanding and move it around a garbage can in the
00:43:01
middle of the street Jam wow and that might be the future of this like let's say 10 or
00:43:06
15% let's say 10% of the time it needs an intervention one an hour two an hour having some remote person in Manila
00:43:15
wherever watching 10 videos concurrently and looking for moments to do this Inc Cruise workers intervened to help the
00:43:24
company's cars every 2.5 to 5 miles according to a New York Times article all right and just if we uh score
00:43:31
everybody's rating here I give two points for first place one point for second place Optimus got six points ride
00:43:36
hailing four energy two Trucking zero there you have it folks there's your scores from the besties what is wayo
00:43:43
what is that is that like uber that's Google self-driving they spun it out but what what is it is it like
00:43:51
$150,000 cars uhhuh and but is it it competes with Cru yeah they're doing what cruised it it was the original
00:43:59
self-driving car company that Google set up and then they they set up Google X around it and no I just explain to me
00:44:04
the market guys I'm not sure I get it so there's way wh and Cruz yeah but there's
00:44:09
weo and Cruz which are like there's no drivers and then there's Uber and Lyft where there R drivers yeah that's the
00:44:15
basic right is that yeah that's right yeah yeah okay and there's also Aurora I don't does I don't know if Uber
00:44:22
has owns a percentage of that or not but I think you know about Aurora Aurora was
00:44:26
set up by sson he was the original engineering lead on weo inside of Google when they did a management change over
00:44:32
there was a big falling out a lot of people ended up leaving the weo program Chris left took a bunch of people with
00:44:38
him and started Aurora which was basically software to do autonomous driving that they were then going to
00:44:44
license into oems so that company got backed by a bunch of VCS and ended up going public via spa and it's publicly
00:44:50
traded today ah I see Uber owns 26% of Aurora or actually now it's down to 20% there's also zuk they made an investment
00:44:58
in it yeah yeah there's also zukes which is part of Amazon so I think there's about 10 people who are going to get to
00:45:05
the Finish Line at the same time I think it's going to be a very crowded space but again some of these guys are trying
00:45:08
to make software for OEM so that the oems don't have to build their own autonomous
00:45:13
platform and some of them are trying to make a a driving service like weo and then some of them are like Tesla has a
00:45:23
driving car they actually sell cars so different models all going to converge yeah I actually disagree that there's
00:45:29
going to be 20 or 30 of these because I actually think that self-driving is really really hard and we know that
00:45:36
Tesla has been spending years getting to this point and then Google as well so I'm not sure why
00:45:43
there'd be more than two or three companies that can do sof are 10 there are 10 or more pursuing it I do agree it
00:45:51
goes down to four or five and then it's a question of does any is it a win or take all win or take most and that's
00:45:57
what remains to be seen but I mean you need a ton of data to make it work and you need a lot of data around edge cases
00:46:03
and so the advantage Tesla has is they actually have cars on the road they have real cars on the road with real driver
00:46:10
minutes and with drivers using the previous version of FSD and making interventions so they're constantly
00:46:18
getting better I think Google seems to be putting enough resources into this to get somewhere but I don't think a lot of
00:46:26
companies are going to figure this out out I think it's going to be somewhere between one and three companies figure
00:46:30
this out well weo has the most on the road right now I think Cruz is second to them in terms of in market so the
00:46:37
question is how quickly can Elon get this out have you guys any of you guys taken one of these Robo taxis I haven't
00:46:43
taken one uh one my co-workers yeah we gotta have you taken one yeah they're cool they just move around you did take
00:46:50
one yeah they're they're all over the city you can take them in San Francisco now yeah you have to download the whmo
00:46:56
app yeah and there's like a weight list and then you get on it and you know they're letting people on and then you
00:47:01
just get on it and go for a ride pretty cool by the way someone tweeted something kind of funny they said you
00:47:06
know it took Uber years and years and like a trillion dollars to finally get to profitability and now they're about
00:47:12
to get disrupted by Robo taxis this is brutal unlikely I think unlikely I think it's going to be a very slow roll out
00:47:21
you know one or two% a year so but you know it compounds and so we'll see all right everybody is this a big win for
00:47:27
Lena Khan the FTC just banned non-competes three of three people voted this up of the three besties who decided
00:47:33
to vote on the docket Federal Trade Commission this week voted by a 3 to2 margin to ban non-competes to give you a
00:47:40
sense of the impact here estimated of 18% of the total us Workforce are covered in some way by non-competes 30
00:47:47
million people the ruling bans agreements entirely and requires companies to let their staff know that
00:47:54
non-competes are non- enforceable there are a few exceptions like existing non-competes for senior level Executives
00:48:00
I'm guessing uh when you buy a company you can get somebody to non-compete for buying their company the Democratic FDC
00:48:06
commissioner Rebecca Slaughter called non-competes unfree and unfair one of the dissenting Commissioners Republican
00:48:14
Andrew Ferguson said the FTC lacked Authority from Congress to make this ruling without specifying whether or not
00:48:20
he agree with it theoretically the new rule takes effect in 120 days wow we're on a fast timeline after which the vast
00:48:26
majority of existing non-competes will be unenforceable here in California they're not enforceable as we know
00:48:32
except under certain circumstances so this is really an East Coast thing people in Boston New York they're really
00:48:38
affected by this and people will actually enforce these for things as silly as hairdressers it was a big
00:48:44
lawsuit by hairdressers who had to sign like 50 mile non-competes with their beauty
00:48:52
salons the US Chamber of Commerce says it plans to follow suit over the ruling FTC say the ru will create 8,500 new
00:48:59
startups a year because people can leave and compete freeberg your thoughts in California non-competes are not
00:49:06
enforcable but outside of California they are and they're often used like in the
00:49:11
agriculture industry the a inputs industry where folks are developing new technology mostly at companies based in
00:49:19
the Midwest and East Coast as you guys know in financial services as well they're often used that if you work for
00:49:26
one company because you have a lot of Trade Secrets you can't carry them over to others but in Silicon Valley we're
00:49:30
very used to Engineers product managers Executives taking all of the knowledge and capabilities that they've developed
00:49:36
at one business and leveraging that into a new role it creates a dynamically competitive market place it also
00:49:43
inflates obviously costs because you're willing to pay more for someone who's worked directly at a competitor and has
00:49:48
deep knowledge but they are bringing IP often and there is you know a real risk that they take something from your
00:49:54
company that you've invested in them to understand then they take it to your competitor so I I see both sides of this
00:50:01
I think non-competes give companies the ability to invest in employees and feel confident that the knowledge and
00:50:10
information and support they're providing to those employees doesn't ultimately find its way over to a
00:50:16
competitor and it gives you a rationale for paying more to your employees it actually inflates salaries if I'm
00:50:23
fearful that someone might leave and take knowledge with them I'm going share less with the employee I'm going to pay
00:50:28
them less so I could see this going both ways I'm really fairly torn on this issue to be honest I don't know what the
00:50:34
right answer is or if there really is a strong kind of ethical case one way or the other I think that non-competes can
00:50:43
both benefit and hurt employees and benefit and hurt companies yes there are unintended consequences Jam where do you
00:50:49
stand on this is this a huge win for lenina con neutral or a loss I don't see non-compete having any
00:50:57
value in any Market except East Coast Financial markets I've heard of folks getting something called
00:51:05
Beach leave typically in finance these are Wall Street jobs hedge fund jobs so I know it exists there what does
00:51:13
it mean Beach leave like if you leave hedge fund a and you're going to go to hedge fund B they make you sit on ice
00:51:20
for six months or nine months Garden leave I think maybe they call it and the whole idea is that you don't take any
00:51:26
active Market thoughts to your next job for what for what freeberg said I just think the whole thing doesn't make much
00:51:33
sense I mean like intellectual property is the least valuable it's ever been right more
00:51:41
people develop things now via trade secret then patents the whole patent system has become a little bit of a game
00:51:49
we just talked about open source right they have less and less value so Innovation is happening in plain sight
00:51:55
and so I don't think companies are actually thinking about this issue at all anymore they're paying people
00:52:01
because they need to pay more to get the best and brightest so I think if you're
00:52:05
hoping to rely on one of these agreements if you're an employer I think that you should just
00:52:13
forget about them and just hire the best people pay them the best and if they suck fire them did you ever see that
00:52:19
movie Spanish Prisoner starring Steve Martin you guys ever SE yeah great film god wow that's deep pull Steve Martin
00:52:26
plays the con man that goes to this guy and the guy is like a chemical engineer Campbell Scott is the guy's name the
00:52:33
actor and he has like a a process for making a chemical and it's worth so much money and the whole movie is Steve
00:52:41
Martin conning him into telling him the chemical process and eventually he took it he was going to give him all this
00:52:46
money hire him and then he disappeared once he got the knowledge and that was the end of it's a great great film shout
00:52:51
out David mammo David mammo exactly yeah fantastic but I think there's a lot of investment that goes into intellectual
00:53:00
property businesses that include things like chemical engineering obviously Financial Services trading companies
00:53:07
alos in hedge funds and a lot in software that if you can access that intellectual property without stealing
00:53:15
it but actually hiring an employee that has it in their head uh you gain quite a
00:53:20
lot but you can do that now I don't see it actually doing anything B so I have had a lot of folks that I know in other
00:53:26
Industries outside of tech or software where California non-competes are non- enforceable that aren't allowed to go
00:53:32
work at a competitor for one year two years three years no no no I'm not disputing that it doesn't exist I'm
00:53:36
saying where do you see it actually having negative repercussions in California the point of the fact that it
00:53:42
doesn't exist here is also seemingly that it doesn't mean anything yeah theate but the rate of change here is
00:53:48
crazy like the the rate at which software changes I think is quite distinct from the rate at which for
00:53:54
example a chemical engineering process might change where you learn that process you spend $200 million building
00:54:00
a system and then that that employee can go and tell it to someone else and suddenly changes everything about that
00:54:05
other business so I I don't know I feel like there's something about California software that gives us this this point
00:54:11
of view that maybe it doesn't matter but in other Industries it might in that example you'd still need to have come up
00:54:16
with hundreds of millions of capex to implement it whatever you know so saxs any thoughts I just don't think these
00:54:21
things mean anything yeah do you care about non-compete sxs I think one of the reasons why the tech industry moves so
00:54:26
so fast and innovat so well is because of the happy coincidence that California doesn't allow non-competes and so the
00:54:33
industries never had them and as a result of that like you're saying the talent just flows freely to wherever the
00:54:40
opportunity is and you have this dynamic in Tech where the VCS and the talent all
00:54:48
swarm the biggest and best opportunities and the newest Platforms in a completely
00:54:54
decentralized way and there's no little or no friction in doing that if you were
00:54:58
to impose non-competes on all of the talent there's going to be enormous delays and
00:55:04
friction in them moving around to pursue opportunities and so I think it's been very beneficial to the industry as a
00:55:10
whole that we don't have that now it's hard for me to speak to other Industries but I think that if you're looking to
00:55:16
maximize the pace of innovation you wouldn't have these employee non-compete so on that level I kind of agree with
00:55:23
what Lena Khan's done that being said I do think the Republicans point was well taken in the sense that this was very
00:55:30
aggressive Ru making I mean I think you could legitimately argue that a change this
00:55:37
big should be made by Congress but I tend to think this is probably a positive change I think this is great
00:55:43
what Lina Khan's doing and this is two for two I think her Apple Action was great I think this is great love to have
00:55:49
her at the summit that would be an amazing fireside chat uh so if anybody knows her invite her to the summit it
00:55:55
really is threeway oh and by the way chth media business on the East Coast also does this and that's why friend of
00:56:04
the Pod Tucker Carlson and uh Don Lemon both of them started shows on the internet not other networks because they
00:56:12
have very tight non-competes and it's pay to play they got paid out their full contracts according to reports and so
00:56:19
there is something I think in a middle ground here chth where if you do want somebody to not compete you got to pay
00:56:26
to play in other words they're getting this what I'm saying it just tends to be examples Jason over and over of markets
00:56:32
that don't really matter that much relying on these things and markets that are Dynamic and add value in humanity
00:56:39
just moving past them so it's probably make sense for all of us to just go move past them absolutely 100% that's GNA be
00:56:46
great for the economy saak you gonna say something well just because these Agreements are no longer enforcable
00:56:52
doesn't mean that businesses don't have modes it just means you have to look in other places places I mean you have to
00:56:58
you have to find network effects you have to find data scale effects there's other ways of building a mode product
00:57:03
besides just trade secrets or or you know patents is another category where you know in the tech industry patents
00:57:11
have never really matter that much and the only people who are seeking to litigate patents are basically patent
00:57:16
trolls losers so you want to find real durable Moes not these like legal Arrangements that try to protect your
00:57:24
business through you know these these types of contracts well said that's really well said that's exactly what I
00:57:30
was trying to say that's well said well said Team product brand these are the ways to build a great business not legal
00:57:38
by the way one of the reasons why the industry moves so fast is because best practices get shared very quickly and
00:57:45
one of the ways that happens is that everybody is moving around to different companies I mean what's the average term
00:57:52
of employment one or two years 36 months right and you don't have to that if you've got some knowledge in
00:57:58
your head that you don't have to worry that if you use it at some new company you're going to violate some trade
00:58:03
secret the but the one thing everyone knows not to do is take anything with them in terms of you know not everybody
00:58:11
not every dowski was that his name L well that's why it's really stup what an idiot oh my God yeah I mean sometimes
00:58:17
people do Break The Rules I mean the rule is you don't take any work product with you you don't take any documents no
00:58:23
thumb drives di don't bring your old computer to the new no to the new job don't bring any old code no do and there
00:58:31
are people who violate those rules and that is definitely breaking the rules but you're allowed to take with you
00:58:37
anything in your head and it is one of the ways that best practices sort of become more common you guys know the
00:58:44
story right like Steve Chen before he started YouTube was an engineer at Facebook and there was like at one point
00:58:52
I remember being in some meeting where was like oh I think we found an early vers of the YouTube code on Old on an
00:58:59
old laptop that was a Facebook laptop that's Ste so I remember like the GC was like I think we technically own
00:59:07
YouTube that's a good General I think we own YouTube could you have imagin if Facebook sued Google to get YouTube
00:59:16
speaking of startups this is critically important for Founders listening if you're working at a company the best
00:59:22
practice is if you're going to do a side hustle is to get permission and a waiver
00:59:25
from your boss that you're working on that and clean machine you got to go on a clean machine your machine is being
00:59:32
canot use your work computer your work machine I'm telling you right now is being monitored every step of the way I
00:59:39
had well it's not just monitoring it's who owns that it's their property it's their proper absolutely and if you type
00:59:44
on it especially in this work from home era and you know anyway I had a situation I wouldn't say
00:59:52
it which company where a sales executive left the company went into the CRM system downloaded it and he was so
01:00:04
dumb he had written plans for his next employer on his computer and then in his Corporate email emailed the database and
01:00:13
his plans for the new employer to his Yahoo or Outlook email oh my God they busted him of course they dropped a
01:00:21
legal letter on him they put a legal letter on the person was hiring him the person hir resends the offer obviously
01:00:27
they don't want some toxic nonsense and uh yeah the person you know I have no idea what happened to him you know
01:00:33
there's that very famous email that Steve Jobs sent to Bruce chisen which goes something along the
01:00:39
lines of dear Bruce it's come to my attention that oh Apple never recruits from Adobe but it seems like Adobe is
01:00:47
actively recruiting Apple employees one of our practices have to change a gangster you know please let me
01:00:56
know who or something like that it's just a phenomenal email yeah they they this actually resulted in a bunch of
01:01:02
legal action a settlement because I think Eric Schmidt and Steve Jobs correct me if I'm wrong producers or
01:01:08
there was something between Google and apple where they agreed and I think Sergey or somebody was yeah Sergey got
01:01:16
in on it says I don't know if this is legal but they didn't want to piss Steve off because it's not the kind of guy you
01:01:22
want to piss off because he can execute and Eric Schmidt was on the board of Apple at the time there's a very famous
01:01:30
picture of them at the Pao the the sandill road or Stanford mall having coffee and Steve is lit he's not happy
01:01:38
about this and I think they agreed to not poach a certain level or something like that oh there's the famous picture
01:01:45
where they were breaking bread and then Eric Schmidt did Android Steve felt very
01:01:49
betrayed by this and Eric Schmidt left the board of Apple shortly thereafter because Steve reportedly felt like he
01:01:58
was double crossed but uh you know all that is speculation so check your own facts any any do you have any other
01:02:05
details on that freeberg do you remember that case it was after your time right I'll tell you a funny story we had a
01:02:11
meeting with the exec team from Apple when I was at Google and Marissa mayor and Sergey and myself and one other
01:02:21
person went to the meeting and Marissa's idea was why don't we pitch Apple that we could put a cach of the internet in
01:02:29
200 megabytes like the most important 200 megabytes of the internet cash it and put it on the iPod so you could
01:02:35
access the internet on the iPod surf the web right basically search search a cached version of the web and that was
01:02:42
the pitch and they kind of were like radio silent they didn't respond to the pitch and then they kind of blank-faced
01:02:46
stared at us two years later the iPhone came out I have three amazing Steve Jobs
01:02:53
stories I'll tell you one of them right now I was the co-founder of a website called
01:02:57
in gadget which was the largest blog in the world we wind up selling the collection of those blogs to AOL I was
01:03:03
at a conference Steve Jobs was there he sees my badge says in gadget he goes oh Jason in gadget my
01:03:11
favorite tech blog in the world I read it every day y yada and I said oh that's great and you
01:03:17
know D and I said hey can I ask you a question he said yeah sure anything and we're we're out there beautiful view of
01:03:22
the Pacific Ocean and I said you know Steve um I have the iPod I that out of my pocket and it had a color screen and
01:03:28
I said to him I said you know it seems to me that I could download short video clips like of the Chappelle show and I
01:03:35
use that as an example and uh they could sell them to me like you're selling mp3s
01:03:39
and you could just buy like a Chappelle Show issue episode it's pretty obvious idea and then I could play it when I'm
01:03:45
on the Subway or something or got some downtime in a cafe I could watch Chappelle show clips could you make a
01:03:52
video version of this since it's already got the you know storage in in the screen he looked at me he said Jason do
01:03:57
you want to watch a thumbnail size video I said yeah totally fine he said all of
01:04:04
our research says nobody wants to watch a tiny video like that it's the worst idea ever and I had this moment of like
01:04:12
self-doubt because he had that reality Distortion field I go back I tell my guys what he said and hey should we
01:04:18
write a story about it and uh 30 days later he releases the video version and the ability to watch videos on it he had
01:04:26
the greatest poker face ever it was just an incredible moment man I really missed
01:04:32
that guy what a incredible what an incredible are we doing a walk down memory lane of our
01:04:38
Steve Jobs stories do you have one I have two but I I give us one come on these are great people loved by the way
01:04:44
the segment when we went on when I worked at winam my boss when when it was merged into AOL to
01:04:54
create AOL music was this guy Kevin Conway great guy remember Kev and Kevin basically got us Runway to
01:05:04
launch a 99 Cent music download store and we were able to use aol's cards on file so there was like 25 or 30
01:05:14
million credit cards and we were able to use Warner Brothers music library because AOL had merged with Time Warner
01:05:23
and so we launched this 99 Cent music store and it performed phenomenally and I went
01:05:30
and I did demos for Walt mosberg TOA I went to Apple I showed James higga Eddie Q Steve Jobs all these guys and
01:05:41
AOL just couldn't do anything with the data we kept pushing Kevin kept pushing but they were just so tied up in their
01:05:47
own political nonsense they wouldn't Greenlight it becoming more than a beta and then 9 months later the 99 cent
01:05:55
download store launched on iTunes and I was just like oh my God this is execution and they had all the labels
01:06:02
and it was a thousand times better experience and we created but it was the first time where I stumbled into
01:06:08
something relatively accidentally and just got frankly owned by an organization that's just a thousand
01:06:14
times better saak you ever meet Steve Jobs in person no freeberg uh yeah I met him at Mac World
01:06:22
in 2003 he was walking the floor it was at Moscone I remember it because I I've been a Mac User since 1984 first Mac
01:06:32
original I still have it in my office Die Hard Die Hard Mac fan I read every edition of Mac World Mac User Mac week
01:06:41
and so to meet him on the floor walking around I was just like like a 22y old kid I was freaking out it was awesome
01:06:48
only time I met him he was the greatest he was the absolute greatest I have one other story but I'm not going to share
01:06:54
it you know you know what segment people love last week I interviewed with him for a job what oh come on you cannot
01:07:01
tell that story right when I left Facebook people love the story last week when we did our childhood uh business I
01:07:06
want he the story Cham come on chamath you give us one more I'll give you one that's recorded on video it's like so
01:07:12
littered with my failures and my insecurities but okay that's why we want to hear it that's why we want to hear it
01:07:17
so damn successful be self-deprecating share with your brothers there was basically somebody at a well-known
01:07:24
recruiting firm who pinged me and said hey there could be a consol this is right when I was leaving Facebook and I
01:07:30
had a pretty large project that never saw the light of day which was this Facebook phone
01:07:36
although people in the ecosystem knew that we were working on it so you know Samsung and Intel were our partners and
01:07:42
AT&T and all this stuff anyways long story short there was a rumor that they wanted to consolidate iPhone into one
01:07:50
business unit right and at the time it was kind of like very balkanized or whatever and and I got approached by
01:07:57
recruiter saying they're thinking of creating a role which is kind of like head of iPhone and at that point I was
01:08:02
like this was in 201 11 and I was adamant that I would never work for anybody until I heard it was Steve Jobs
01:08:10
and I was like I will do whatever he says whatever ask dude I would have driven his car I
01:08:19
would yes sir I would have driven that car I was you be Driving Miss Daisy oh Steve job you're my best friend and I
01:08:28
went through a couple of interviews I'm not going to get into those details and at the end of it it was like well he's
01:08:34
not going to become he's not going to be the CEO you know he's going to become executive chairman and so you'll be
01:08:40
reporting to Tim Cook and that's where that process died they said I wasn't a good cultural
01:08:46
fit for Apple in the new era now and then it turned out what happened yeah you would four left I was not a good
01:08:52
culture I would not have been a good cultureal fit for that no he wanted radicals and Tim Cook wanted you know
01:08:57
optimizers yes so then I went and I started Social Capital but that was my only job interview that I
01:09:02
had when I was leaving Facebook and it was for me to I had the same reaction as freeberg I was like a kid
01:09:12
meeting his I don't even want to call it Idol like I think I was like a a Believer meeting
01:09:20
Jesus that's how it felt I will uh I will save my um you just to get this uh we got to get through two more stories
01:09:27
in the docket I'm going to leave my other Steve Jobs stories for another time we got time it's time well you have
01:09:32
that famous clip of you asking in that question where he basically was looking at you like that's a very famous one
01:09:37
because that that you you really got the better of him I thought which is pretty
01:09:39
good here all right will you uh help companies like ours uh sell podcasts you know be an audible so if we wanted to
01:09:45
sell a podcast through your service would you uh help us do the Fulfillment um you know we're planning on having all
01:09:52
the podcasts be free at first but uh zing me an email email with what you've got in mind and we're open to anything
01:09:57
same email I always send it to you yep okay it's so strong I mean I gotta give it to you J call you have balls I mean
01:10:07
the truth is I traded emails with Steve many times he he was with the Press he was full contact as you know all right
01:10:16
it's time full contact it's time for saxs red meat and we've got a double serving for sax sax stands are going to
01:10:24
be really happy right now now Tik tok's dester ban bill has been signed into law
01:10:28
Senate passed the bill 79 to18 we've talked about this year over and over and over again President signed it this
01:10:35
thing's uh on the fast track divest or shut down Tik Tock bill was packaged bundled with 95 billion in foreign aid
01:10:47
61 billion for the Ukraine Ukraine Ukraine 26.4 billion for Israel and human humanitarian aid for civilians in
01:10:54
Gaza and about 8 billion for the indopacific region AKA Taiwan house added a provision to the
01:11:02
bill that require the president to seek A10 billion repayment from Ukraine's government finally they're talking about
01:11:10
the lease back we'll see if that ever happens I'm curious what sack things there last year CNBC reported that by
01:11:16
Den was buying back 5 billion worth the stock and early Thursday morning it was reported that b Dan is exploring selling
01:11:23
a majority stake in Tik tok's us business looks like gun to the head is working to
01:11:28
a non-te company without the algorithm in other words maybe they sell it to a Walmart somebody who they don't consider
01:11:35
super competitive I'm not sure who the non-tech company is here could be Disney would come to mind as well and remember
01:11:40
Disney did look at buying Twitter but they didn't want the toxicity of an open platform uh Tik Tok is obviously heavily
01:11:47
scrubbed of anything that is aggressive you can't show a movie clip with somebody getting attacked violently it's
01:11:53
very PG-13 but this is the key part saaks no algorithm in the package deal your thoughts on this and you can take it
01:12:03
either way you like because I know your fans want to hear about everything do you want to talk the the budget bundling
01:12:09
or the Tik Tock ban which and the divesture which seems to be happening well the overall theme is just that the
01:12:15
National Security State got everything it wanted it got 100 billion for to support forever Wars it got a Tik Tock
01:12:24
ban and this divesture thing is a total fig Leaf because it's not clear that China is going to allow Tik Tock to
01:12:30
divest because it would set a horrible precedent where the us could just pass a law and then essentially steal the value
01:12:37
of a Chinese company so I don't think they're going to be able to divest I think they're just going to get shut
01:12:41
down so the security State's getting its wish there and then another bill that you didn't mention which they just
01:12:46
passed is they approved the warrantless spying on Americans so the federal government can now spy on you and you're
01:12:54
you know know Communications without even getting a warrant ridiculous disgusting the National Security State
01:13:01
just seems to get whatever it wants and there was large bipartisan majorities follow of this and the way they do it is
01:13:07
they conjure all these fears to try and fear us into well if we don't agree to warrantless spying then you could get a
01:13:17
terrorist attack well when has a warrant requirement ever gotten in the way of actually doing what we needs to to do to
01:13:25
stop terrorism never but that fear was enough to get Congress to authorize that legislation they're keeping us involved
01:13:33
in this forever war in Ukraine by this fear that Putin is somehow going to conquer all of Europe which I think is
01:13:38
total threat inflation and this Tik Tock fear that somehow what videos we like is
01:13:46
like Precious data that's being shared with the CCP look I'm willing to believe it's possible but they never proved that
01:13:53
oh they proved that data it's been proven you show us when we debated this when we
01:13:57
debated this you showed one article from The New York Times about how yeah that's
01:14:02
not proof jcal those were two Rogue employees who shared some data with I spoke to New York Times
01:14:10
reporters I spoke I spoke to multiple Tik Tock employees myself personally and they told me that the Chinese
01:14:16
representatives are all over the company and inside of it freeberg your thoughts
01:14:21
but what was the what was the judicial process or legislative process to prove that
01:14:25
do they have hearings they prove that I understand that yeah you know your hearsay in your view is good enough to
01:14:32
ban it but I'd actually my position on Banning thanks for asking is based on reciprocity and the potential damage it
01:14:39
could do and based on how influential and Powerful the product is and how they could change sentiment and censorship
01:14:45
and the Chinese government is fantastic at censorship they're trade bill then because handle
01:14:52
it in a trade bill because what we've authorized here is not a Tik Tok ban it is a sweeping new federal power to ban
01:15:01
foreign adversary controlled applications that's the new category so we have a new category of foreign
01:15:07
controlled apps whatever that means and the government can now use it to shut down apps they don't like and I
01:15:13
guarantee you I think here's where this goes next I think telegram is next on The Hit List you have a Russian founder
01:15:21
okay you have rumors for years I'd say unpro proven that somehow telegram's been backdoored by the Russian
01:15:29
government you know we've all heard those those rumors it's kind of like the where is it face though isn't it isn't
01:15:35
he out of there he's in Monaco or something he doesn't live there no he in Dubai he lives in Dubai yeah PA here's
01:15:41
here's what you're going to see you're going to see at at some point you'll see a media campaign that'll be promoting
01:15:47
the idea that telegram is used by Hamas by terrorists by groups that the US doesn't like m and that it's back doored
01:15:56
by Russia and that it's got some shady investors on its cap table and no politician's going to want to stand up
01:16:03
and defend Telegram and all the industry money that flows into Washington will be
01:16:10
promoting this idea that we have to ban it because think about the market share gains that all of telegram's competitors
01:16:16
will make and they're the ones wired into DC so this is a foregone you also said on Twitter you thought this would
01:16:21
come to X and to rumble you actually think they take this to American companies I think that that seems like a
01:16:28
stretch not really I think that the first step is you go get telegram because that's easy you know this guy is
01:16:34
an agent of Putin obviously and anyone who says differently is is themselves an agent of the Kremlin how does it jump
01:16:41
that's how that's how this rhetoric works so first they'll they'll whack Telegram and by the way we all know the
01:16:47
companies are going to benefit enormously by slurping up that market share and then if Biden wins a second
01:16:52
term they will eventually set their gun sights on X but look that's a battle because it in X you have a billionaire
01:17:00
who has resources who's willing to stand on his hind legs and fight yeah I mean and so they're not going to do that
01:17:06
before the election but look if we continue to see more weaponization and more censorship I believe that
01:17:14
eventually what they will do is try and push Elon to divest X and look all they got all all they got to do listen job
01:17:21
this this act empowers the Attorney General to open an investig so I think that in a second Biden term
01:17:28
they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon
01:17:33
to get rid of X because that's clearly what they want yeah and the Tik Tock guy bought off Trump already so he's gonna
01:17:38
fight for it freeberg your thoughts I don't agree that I the Chinese government will shut it down I I
01:17:47
certainly don't have any insight into what the Chinese government is discussing or thinking about doing but
01:17:53
there's a lot of money to be made here so if I'm bite Dance I'm very likely going to hire a bunch of Bankers run an
01:18:00
auction process and sell this thing and I have a year to do it this is a business that did 14 billion in Revenue
01:18:07
last year according to a published report 170 million Americans are active users of Tik Tok a revenue grew 40% plus
01:18:16
last year so I don't know how they would just say hey let's write this thing off
01:18:20
and and and shut it down when we could probably generate I'm basic that statement on published reports that
01:18:28
China has said they're opposed to the for sale of Tik Tok in the US and look I agree with you that that it might change
01:18:36
think about it if you're the Chinese government you're adamantly opposed to this you don't like the president and
01:18:41
you don't really care you don't really care about tech entrepreneurs getting rich I mean the the founder CEO of Tik
01:18:49
Tok lives in Singapore right so why would they give a but now let's assume that they let it go through think
01:18:56
about the implications Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs get hired to run a a joint process to auction this thing off
01:19:02
right they're going to run this process for a period of months there's only a certain number of folks that could
01:19:07
actually make a bid to buy this thing maybe some of the big guys in private Equity Silver Lake and others try and
01:19:12
pull some Capital together to buy it but I think it's more likely a big company tries to buy it cifas and antitrust will
01:19:19
probably not be as relevant here as it normally would be certainly C s wouldn't be because
01:19:25
it's being completely divested antitrust there's a real question on whether they're going to be given some leeway
01:19:32
but even if if antitrust does apply who could buy Tik Tok in the US there's only
01:19:37
a handful of companies that could or or would Oracle maybe Microsoft they said it's
01:19:44
not a tech is the report that it's not a what not a tech company so that would be
01:19:50
Walmart Disney you start to get to over maybe a media company right yeah so I do
01:19:55
I do think that there's a really interesting Netflix maybe Netflix so I think that there's a really interesting
01:20:01
rewrite of the landscape a little bit here where some of the traditional big tech companies meta Google have really
01:20:09
had total control over the consumer media consumption on the internet that there's going to be a real difference
01:20:14
here that might be triggered in how the industry kind of is sorted based on the Tik Tok
01:20:23
auction if it does happen and I think it's probably look we could argue all day about what the Chinese are going to
01:20:27
do but if it does go through there's next story you're going to see in the Wall Street Journal is how much money
01:20:32
the bankers are going to make on fees running the auction here and and then the next story you'll see after that is
01:20:38
going to be about how the tech and media landscape has been reshuffled and Rewritten by the Tik Tok deal shth hly
01:20:45
batia our chairman dictator can't wait to see a poker tonight what are your thoughts on this if any I think the
01:20:50
thing to keep in mind is that the reason why the government is Bing Tik Tok and I'm totally speculating and guessing has
01:20:57
nothing to do with these silly little videos but it is that the overwhelming majority of the people that download Tik
01:21:04
Tok keep the microphone on and it is an ambient passive surveillance device and I think to the extent that a foreign
01:21:13
government has access to whatever you hear ambiently and randomly while the app is not even being used is the real
01:21:20
problem here and so I think that that's effectively what this is is a listening device into enough Americans and I think
01:21:28
that that's pretty scary to folks the second thing is with respect to the actual product itself in the absence of
01:21:34
that algorithm which I think is just incredible as somebody who was a voracious user of that app until I
01:21:40
deleted it I don't think the product is much of anything it's probably no better or no
01:21:46
worse than shorts or reals or some of these other Alternatives so I don't see the economic
01:21:52
justification for anybody whoy one of these assets to buy these things because the content is roughly the same now it
01:21:59
it is the thing that makes that app is the algo but the videos are everywhere they're on YouTube they're on
01:22:07
Instagram they're everywhere so I don't see why anybody would pay a lot of money
01:22:12
for this especially in the absence of a the algorithm is is my honest thought what do you think jakeob I think this is
01:22:19
um a security risk I've made that clear here before and I don't think we would ever allow
01:22:25
Iran North Korea Russia to run any of these companies inside of America nor would
01:22:31
they allow us to run Facebook X Etc in their countries so I think reciprocity is the key but I am running a little
01:22:39
test right now I posted this video to my Tik Tok today and uh it's under review they won't let it publish and the video
01:22:48
is very simple it uh quotes a study from Reuters you don't have to play it um I'll explain what I said it but I just
01:22:56
took a video of the reuter study what this reuter study shows you pull up the chart there Nick is that in this Rucker
01:23:02
study the CCP is censoring sensitive topics related to China and so if you want to understand why the CEO who I
01:23:09
think you may have worked with before chth at Facebook the CEO is saying it's a ban
01:23:15
when in fact it's a divestiture if you want to understand why they care about this it's because
01:23:21
they want to be able to influence things in a America they want to have data on Americans it's spyware that's my
01:23:29
position and it's the most censored platform I think In America which I know you feel passionately about saxs so I I
01:23:36
did this uh video and uh just like covid-19 was blocked on X here in America in the US if you talked about
01:23:45
Wuhan if you talked about any of these topics our government banned well if you talk about Hong Kong if you talk about
01:23:52
Wagers if you talk about tnm and square your video will not be posted and in fact my video is held
01:24:00
right now so if you're hearing my voice right now I'm doing a little experiment I want everybody to post that chart and
01:24:07
just read the Wikipedia page maybe talk about tankman talk about the Hong Kong riots and then use the hashtag don't ban
01:24:14
Tik Tok as a little bit of a a cheeky way for us all to track each others and I want to see if a hundred or a thousand
01:24:21
all-in fans post one of these if they all get banned or if we can see any of them so we can do a live censorship test
01:24:28
here in America are Americans allowed to talk about T and square the Hong Kong riots Wagers or any of those things and
01:24:35
uh you can also um if you want at mention me I'm mat calanis on Tik Tok can that's my position on it I wanna I
01:24:44
want to see this thing banned immediately or divest I would prefer it be divested one I think people love it
01:24:49
one quick thing I I think what saak said is really interesting about them then going after Telegram
01:24:56
the the big issue that I think telegram has always had is that it is encrypted but it's it has its own form of
01:25:05
encryption that they rolled themselves right like typically I think WhatsApp and a lot of these other folks just use
01:25:10
pretty standard signal I think as well use sha256 encryption which is like pretty standard but there is always a
01:25:15
fear that the US government actually can unencrypt that and has some kind of a back door that
01:25:22
was always the fear of that SG 256 and so pav durov and his team basically rolled his own which is also 256 bit
01:25:29
symmetric encryption but different standard altogether and what people would say is hold on he has the back
01:25:35
door to Sax's point so that was always the claim counter claim between these things of of why telegram was always
01:25:42
painted in more of a sketchy corner I'm not saying that it's true and I think that if they go after
01:25:48
it I think it's because this underlying encryption model is something that we can't get access to and so they'd rather
01:25:53
just eliminate to to saxis point all right I think telegram can stick its head between its legs and kiss us ass
01:26:01
goodbye because they're they're next on The Hit List all right we're gonna see what do you think of my don't t Security
01:26:08
state has has used fears like the one that Jake kelp explained to get a new power and it's not a power to ban Tik
01:26:16
Tok it's a power to ban any foreign controlled app so goodbye telegram what do what do you think of my don't ban Tik
01:26:23
Tok challenge sex the censorship challenge yeah I mean fine whatever wow you're so passionate about it's done
01:26:32
it's over it's over look the the National Security State gets whatever it wants it's pretty clear not if we stay
01:26:38
vigilant I mean if we keep talking about this how did this warrantless spying thing happen I mean look I think the
01:26:42
warrantless spying is actually worse than the Tik Tok band me too 100 100 times I how how are they not
01:26:49
requir easy by the way have we have we eliminated the physic courts entirely we don't need those anymore either they can
01:26:55
just do whatever they want well I think we saw have fisa but you don't have to go to the court to get a warrant they
01:27:00
can just do whatever they want we need let's take a deep dive on that in in a future episode because we're running out
01:27:05
of time One More Story to get to yeah let's let's Deep dive it you know listen there there's a lot of topics people
01:27:09
want us to talk about and this one I think people are talking about a whole bunch it's kind of breaking I I haven't
01:27:16
couldn't find a Wall Street Journal or a Washington Post covering this but a lot
01:27:19
of people were cover talking about it on X Biden's 2025 budget includes some serious capital gains
01:27:27
hikes there are three proposals in the 2025 budget we'll put all the links in the show notes to increase cap gains
01:27:34
rates as opposed to income cap gains if all three are passed big if it would more than double the long-term capital
01:27:41
gains tax to almost 45% important to note this only covers those making 1 million or more a year
01:27:49
which is like you know less than 1% of the country way less and so this is definitely attacks the rich idea here
01:27:56
currently the highest long-term capital gains rate is 20% Which is really about 24% if you earn more than 200k per year
01:28:03
because you have to pay an extra small tax if these proposals become law big if it would create the highest cap gains
01:28:11
rate in 100 years here's the chart this comes from Americans for tax reform which was done by a Reagan Era an NGO I
01:28:20
think that was formed by a former Reagan administration they basically make politicians sign that they won't
01:28:26
increase taxes the budget also proposes a 25% unrealized cap gain tax this would
01:28:32
be a tax on total income including unreeled cap gains for all taxpayers worth over 100 million okay uh Sachs I
01:28:39
know this is your red meat there's a lot of pieces here but gosh this is crushing
01:28:43
for those folks who want to vote for Biden but are moderates because this is like the number one thing you can do to
01:28:50
stop Innovation and investment in the country which we desperately need this is a head scratcher Biden is playing
01:28:55
game of chicken with the tech industry and with I'd say Suburban voters in general I mean is this what you want at
01:29:02
some point you're going to have to say that this is not okay I mean first of all you've got this 25% unrealized gains
01:29:11
tax which is a wealth tax if you're somebody who's created a small business or a family farm or you're a tech found
01:29:17
founder if you get to qualify for the amount then you've got to pay 25% and in order to raise the money for that
01:29:27
25% you're going to get taxed on let's say you try to sell 25% of the company you're now going to get taxed
01:29:34
45% of that plus 13.3% California so really you're going to have to sell more like 40% of the company just to pay off
01:29:42
this unrealized gains tax and by the way you haven't made a dime yet you haven't
01:29:46
put a dollar in your bank account pure confiscation that's year One what what happens the following year the actual
01:29:53
business insane ah this is this is ridiculous these things will never pass let me let me tell you I mean so so this
01:30:00
is in Biden's budget for next year and this idea this is not the first time we've seen this it was in his original
01:30:06
build back better proposal and the only reason that failed is because mansion and Cinema voted against it so mansion
01:30:13
and Cinema are not going to be in the Senate next year okay they're not running for reelection so if the
01:30:19
Democrats have the trifecta if Biden wins reelection and holds on to the sen and house but without mansion and Cinema
01:30:26
I think you have to price in the strong possibility that this passes I don't think you can just shrug it off freeberg
01:30:34
your thoughts well we're talking about it here we're not shrugging it off this is like five Al on fire here on X
01:30:39
everybody's talking about it freeberg your thoughts there was a poll published yesterday Bloomberg News morning consult
01:30:47
surveyed 4900 registered voters in seven swing States and the poll showed that 77% of registered voters in those States
01:30:59
support basically an asset tax on ultra high net worth people people worth over hundred million
01:31:06
doar to keep Social Security intact so I think that's a strong indication of where things are headed
01:31:14
generally we can debate the tactics and the Nuance of this election cycle but as
01:31:19
we all have talked about and know Social Security becomes def facto bankrupt by 2033 perhaps earlier so we have a few
01:31:28
years to figure out whether we cut Social Security benefits in this country or find alternative ways to fund it and
01:31:36
it's pretty evident from this poll that Americans are not in support of raising the minimum age from 67 to 69 which is
01:31:43
one of the questions in here only 25% of Americans support raising the minimum age for Social Security from 67
01:31:52
to 69 meanwhile 77% strongly support a tax on ultra high net worth to fund the Gap the funding need well yeah I mean
01:32:02
that's a loaded that's a loaded question because you're basically positioning this
01:32:09
tax which is really complicated in the details and the person getting asked the question doesn't understand it compared
01:32:15
to the most popular program that the federal government has which is social security so obviously it's going to pull
01:32:22
that way I mean look can you can ask a question in a way on a poll to get whatever answer you want to get to I can
01:32:29
basically prove to you that a majority of the American public is either for Ukraine funding or against Ukraine
01:32:35
funding depending on how you ask the question and look yeah obviously taxing people with $100 million of paper wealth
01:32:44
is going to be more popular than sacrificing your Social Security obviously but that doesn't mean that
01:32:50
this is a good proposal economically at all no it doesn't and I don't think that
01:32:55
that's what really matters I think most folks are voting for themselves their particular needs and the majority of
01:33:01
people need more support and there's not even going to save Social Security I mean you know what is this this tax
01:33:09
going to get us it's going to destroy the startup ecosystem it's not going to balance the budget we're still spending
01:33:14
way too much for that it doesn't pay down the debt it doesn't save Social Security it's just more and more taxes I
01:33:22
think that's the inevitable Trend I'm just saying I don't know how it's going to manifest but I think it's inevitable
01:33:26
that we're going to raise federal revenue through some form of Taxation that's going to feel deeply
01:33:31
uncomfortable and inappropriate and it's going to have negative Economic Consequences and this is where the
01:33:37
economic spiraling but has talked abouty actually had a brilliant blog post about this called all it takes is
01:33:48
all you got and what he pointed out is he was talking about the Federal feral government's runaway deficits and debt
01:33:56
and borrowing and somebody responded to him with this chart that shows assets versus liabilities this guy Brent who I
01:34:05
guess is a foil on exology sometimes said oops you only showed one side of the balance sheet common mistake though
01:34:12
basically saying that bology didn't know what he was talking about because bology
01:34:16
was only showing the red which is the government liabilities the government debt and he showed that well no you have
01:34:22
to include all the green ball bar s but what are the green bars those are private assets and bology pointed out
01:34:29
that no actually you're proving my point because people like you just see all of
01:34:34
the private assets of citizens of the United States as belonging to the government yeah and if you actually
01:34:40
extend the red bars to the present value of all the long-term liabilities that this government has it's more like 175
01:34:48
billion so you know people like this see the 11 160 trillion of private wealth as
01:34:56
being on the balance sheet of the federal government and being used to offset the 175 trillion of liabilities
01:35:05
in other words all it takes is all you got that's the trajectory we're on is we have a your home your 401k is the
01:35:14
governments and we're going to they're going to go after your they're going to absolutely go after your retirement
01:35:17
accounts because that's the only way they're going to pay off these liabilities it's gross another idea cut
01:35:22
spending cut spending well there's another there's another great tweet by a guy who
01:35:26
said laptop mercenary I don't know this account but he said something funny he said imagine being a California high
01:35:33
earner options either vote for your own Financial liquidation or vote for the orange man yeah it's BR Checkmate dude
01:35:40
Checkmate you guys just got to put on the red magga hat it's happening uh here's the I mean I read that I read the
01:35:47
I read that you're uh you're all you don't you don't have to wear the look you don't have to wear the red Maga hat
01:35:52
when you go into that polling booth Nobody Knows the button you're pushing yeah okay there it is I mean these these
01:35:58
are the two worst candidates in the history Jason Biden has had Biden has had four years to prove that he's a
01:36:05
moderate he's had four years to prove that he represents the normaly that he promised to us when he first got elected
01:36:13
that's been refuted I mean how much more does it take for you to understand that
01:36:17
his policy is radical yeah I mean he combines the foreign policy of Dick Cheney with the economic policy of
01:36:24
Elizabeth Warren how much more does it take are you going to vote for your own Financial liquidation because that's
01:36:30
what we're talking about it's the worst two candidates and I think I'm voting for the third oo an RFK endorsement wow
01:36:37
I didn't I didn't see that I think I just have to put in the protest vote of RFK or love RFK I think he's a great
01:36:44
vote yeah for Democrats I mean crazy I think maybe I go after the rock but uh yeah congratulations on Biden on making
01:36:52
this easy for Trump with his build back broke plan so dumb all right everybody this is the world's
01:37:00
greatest podcast by the way Jason if you do decide in the end to vote for Biden I'll send you some luxury tents that you
01:37:07
and your kids could sleep in you can tell them stories about how you voted for them it's so brutal I mean
01:37:16
the worst two candidates of our lifetime jcal here here are your choices okay you
01:37:21
can vote for Trump or you can give up this the uh Ski Lodge what's it going to be I mean at
01:37:28
this point I think I'm RFK all the way I think I got to go for just try to support Independence I just think we got
01:37:34
to balance the budget shout out David freeberg for the Rainman himself David saaks yeah David fredberg the Sultan of
01:37:42
science we didn't get the science Corner this week we're going to start with it next week and the chairman dictator
01:37:47
chamath poopaa I am world's greatest moderator of the number one podcast in the world I'm
01:37:56
manifesting can we get the Spielberg on manifesting track in here and take us out Spielberg young Spielberg baby
01:38:02
coming at you Z 100 love you boys byebye love you besties welcome everybody to episode
01:38:08
175 that's right it's episode7 your favorite podcast the and mosten the world official now
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01:38:27
[Music] manifesting I'm [Music] [Applause] [Music] manifest just like there worldest poker
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01:39:11
lying no it's just like know the world's greatest poker player and then just so you know tonight is a murderer's row and
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hel youth is flying back you saw the lineup and now the plugs follow the show at x.com thee all inpod our Tik Tok is _
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