00:00:00
the election is going to be decided based on who presents a more aspirational vision of masculinity and what you have on the far right is this
00:00:06
vision of being provocative aggressive speaking your mind the far left their vision of masculinity is be more like a
00:00:11
woman and if any of them resonates it's the right that could swing the entire election what happens to America if
00:00:16
Trump wins are you scared of that America Scott Galloway is back giving
00:00:22
his objective No Nonsense analysis on what the upcoming US election means for the future of America and the world
00:00:30
objectively what has Trump done well he's unpredictable look I publicly endorse vice president Harris one of the
00:00:36
things I hate about my party quite frankly is we become humorless everything's offensive and people are
00:00:42
just so sick of that and then he showed up and started saying these really offensive things that felt raw and felt
00:00:49
authentic and really appealed to people and then if you go to the Democratic party's website there's a section that
00:00:54
says who we serve and it lists 16 demographic groups but not one mention of group that has fallen furthest in the
00:01:01
United States and that's young men three out of four homeless people are men three times as likely to kill themselves
00:01:07
12 times as likely be incarcerated and yet they're fighting for everyone except for them but they feel seen by the
00:01:12
Republican party and Trump even though under Trump will probably have the largest tax increase in history on young people and that has a lot of unfortunate
00:01:19
ramifications and I don't think young men realize this who do you think is going to win I'll tell you what I'm doing this afternoon I'm going to bet
00:01:26
$358,000 on
00:01:32
this has always blown my mind a little bit 53% of you that listen to the show regularly haven't yet subscribe to the
00:01:38
show so could I ask you for a favor before we start if you like the show and you like what we do here and you want to support us the free simple way that you
00:01:44
can do just that is by hitting the Subscribe button and my commitment to you is if you do that then I'll do everything in my power me and my team to
00:01:51
make sure that this show is better for you every single week we'll listen to your feedback we'll find the guest that
00:01:56
you want me to speak to and we'll continue to do what we do thank you so
00:02:03
much Scott what are you thinking about at the moment I'm thinking that I've been on this thing four times and I
00:02:08
didn't get a jacket and that you used to send this fat van with for me with these
00:02:14
lights and music and a little fridge and today you sent me this Joey Bag of Donuts Uber really I feel like your side
00:02:20
piece at year have kind of taken for granted that's what I'm thinking about the nice car will take you home after he's outside appreciate it what am I
00:02:26
thinking about um well we're on the precipice of a uh what feels like an important election every election people
00:02:32
say that in the US the thing I can't get over I just got back from the US is how tense it is
00:02:39
political parties used to be these organizations that tried to grow their membership through policy arguments now
00:02:45
they've become these quasy religions that attempt to sanctify your beliefs and it feels like we're in a bit of a
00:02:51
holy war I couldn't get over how tense and quite frankly how ugly it feels uh
00:02:57
in the US I was at a fundraiser last Saturday night in Miami actually
00:03:02
just south of Palm Beach I was talking about team mental health and someone yelled out Trump
00:03:09
2024 which inspired someone else on the other side of the room to start booing and we're talking about Teen Mental
00:03:14
Health things are so polarized uh in the US so I'm I'm anxious um and it feels
00:03:22
like the US despite all of its blessings is kind of coming apart from the inside
00:03:28
it feels very polarized and very ugly right now in the US that's what I'm thinking about every election cycle in the US people say that this is the most
00:03:35
important election of our history this is the most important election of our time do you believe that do you believe that this one's important I would argue
00:03:42
this one's more important I don't like the catastrophizing from both sides each side would have you believe that it's the end of the the end of America if the
00:03:49
other side wins which doesn't which lacks historical context because the US has endured I would argue much worse
00:03:56
than him or her regardless of what you believe and America's actually doing quite well our institutions you know
00:04:02
America's going to be around in four years regardless of who wins I believe it does seem pretty consequential though
00:04:09
because this issue around bodily autonomy is a pretty big deal whereas bodily autonomy has all headed towards a
00:04:17
woman's right to determine her own bodily autonomy you know in Mexico in you know Poland I mean
00:04:25
there distinct of a few Nations almost every nation has gone one way and that's
00:04:30
towards granting people more rights and in the US it's the first time we've taken a right away so that feels that
00:04:39
feels like a pretty big deal and also we have an individual who has never
00:04:44
conceded the election so this notion of the peaceful transfer of power being
00:04:49
pretty Central to democracy but at the same time if people vote for an autocrat that's their Democratic right and so if
00:04:57
America decides to go that way it's going to feel pretty odd I think and obviously I'm I
00:05:03
should put up front I'm I publicly endorse vice president Harris you know perfect not on the menu she would not
00:05:08
have been my choice for the Democratic nominee but it does feel strange that we
00:05:14
are so polarized and it's sort of a uh it feels like an election between who America
00:05:20
thinks would be less bad what are all the like macro pieces here that have come together to create this sort of
00:05:26
storm that we find ourselves in because I think of some of them I think about the role that Elon buying Twitter played
00:05:31
in this I think about um you know Andrew Tate's rise in culture I think about um
00:05:39
the economic backdrop of what's going on um and all these pieces you know then
00:05:44
Biden and then the the inflation issues because of like covid and the stimulus Che all of these pieces what are those
00:05:49
pieces that you think are most pertinent that have landed us in a situation where as we sit here you know with the
00:05:55
election happening tomorrow in America it's looking likely that Trump is going
00:06:02
to win if you look at some of the the odds but also young men in particular
00:06:07
have for the first time in the last you know couple of decades really seem to have abandoned the Democratic party and
00:06:13
have gone for Trump what are those macro pieces well there's a lot there so first
00:06:19
off there's some dissonance between the perception people have called it a Vibe session and that is if you look at the
00:06:25
economic data it's strikingly different than the perception uh the majority of Americans think that
00:06:31
America's headed in the wrong direction and usually that has something to do with the economy since
00:06:38
um I think it's 2019 the American economy has grown 12 and a
00:06:44
half% uh that's double of any G7 nation in 2009 our stock market was a
00:06:53
third of the total market capitalization of all stocks globally now it's half
00:06:58
Nvidia is worth more than the entire German stock market China has shed
00:07:04
several trillion dollars in market cap over the Last 5 Years America has added several trillion dollars we're the
00:07:10
largest energy producer in the world I mean the just the the economic there's 190 Sovereign nations in the world 189
00:07:18
would trade places with us if you take our poorest state politicians always talk about Mississippi because it's our
00:07:24
poorest state with the worst outcomes the average household income in Mississippi is greater than than it is
00:07:29
in the UK Germany or Japan so our poor state is doing better than many of what
00:07:35
we would consider our competitors no one's lining up for vaccines from Russia or China or flying to Dubai or to soul
00:07:44
for AI software America on any objective metric lowest unemployment historically
00:07:50
since 1968 it's just killing it the problem is that Prosperity similar to what William
00:07:57
Gibson said about the future is here but it's not evenly distributed and you also have a lot of
00:08:04
disruption a lot of people who aren't who feel like their way of life has been undermined um you have a lot of people
00:08:11
who aren't doing as well as they used to a lot of that Prosperity is crowded in the top 1% an economist did a study and
00:08:17
said if you took out the top 1% of American earners France has grown household income faster than the US the
00:08:25
bottom 99 aren't doing as well but the top one are doing so well that quite frankly creates this illusion
00:08:31
of Greater Prosperity than there is so for example we look at the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ 1% of America owns 90% of the
00:08:38
stocks so the Dow Jones is really just an indication or a metric on how the wealthy are doing and spoiler alert the
00:08:45
wealthy have hit 76 new all-time highs in the last year which is what has happened in the market so you have this
00:08:51
fissure between perception and reality but also a lot of people aren't doing as well and 210 times a day on their phone
00:08:59
it's shoved in their face how well everyone else is doing I think there's also the fundamental breakdown in the
00:09:08
social compact in America is that for the first time and we've talked about this before a
00:09:14
30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30 and that not only impacts the 30-year-old it impacts
00:09:20
his or her parents it creates rage and shame uh one out of three young men is living with their parents under the age
00:09:27
of 25 one and five are still living with their parents at the age of 30 uh there's an absence of connection at a
00:09:35
young age only one in three men has a girlfriend under the age of 30 because women are dating older because they want
00:09:40
more economically and emotionally viable men people are opting out of America especially young people uh 40 years ago 60% of households
00:09:48
with a 30-year-old in it or 60% of 30-year-olds had at least one child now it's 27% so the ultimate expression of
00:09:55
optimism in a society is you meet someone and you decide to have kids and so that optimism has been cut in half so
00:10:01
you have this consumer dissonance or fissure between the economic reality and
00:10:06
what's going on because a lot of people aren't doing well and the social media algorithms love to pit people against
00:10:12
each other you have young people especially not doing well the average 7-year-old is 72% wealthier than they
00:10:18
were 40 years ago the average person under the age of 40 is 24% less wealthy and when young people or your kids
00:10:24
aren't doing well it impacts absolutely everybody and then I would say just
00:10:31
psychologically when you are making more money at your job and now wage growth is
00:10:36
growing faster than inflation so purchasing power is going up Prosperity is going up in the US when you get a raise you think it's
00:10:43
because of your character and your grit but when the price of cial is up 40% in The Last 5 Years you blame the
00:10:51
administration so you have social media algorithms pinning us against each other you have the political parties have
00:10:58
taken on sort of this religious like feel where the other party is literally the enemy young people not doing as well
00:11:05
all sort of overwhelm the notion that America is the least bad in the world right now economically on any metric
00:11:12
like I said every nation would kill out of our problems I was just thinking as you were speaking about this idea as of
00:11:18
perception versus reality and then you mentioned algorithms and social media and as you said that I thought to myself you know what's interesting now that
00:11:25
algorithms and social media have made our politicians more visible than ever if you go back 50 years you only saw
00:11:30
them stood at the podium right making the speech now you see them multiple times a day if I scroll on Twitter X
00:11:37
whatever YouTube I see Trump doing 10 speeches a day I get to know him more and I was wondering in this digital age
00:11:44
is personality now more important than ever when I'm not just seeing you at the podium I'm seeing you for three hours on
00:11:49
Rogan then two hours later I'm seeing you in another state then I'm seeing you on a clip I'm seeing you at McDonald's
00:11:55
and so the old politicians of the past were very like straight mhm and you'd see them on the podium how polished was
00:12:01
that speech now it's actually it seems the algorithms are going for Loi politicians and personality seems to be
00:12:08
more important than principal yeah we've definitely replaced politicians who were sort of pragmatists
00:12:13
and practitioners who used to go to Congress and legislate and pass laws we've replaced a lot of them with
00:12:19
performers yeah in the UK as well we've just had a series of them you always got to look at incentives and the person who
00:12:26
raises the most money is almost always reelected and incumbent 92% re-election
00:12:31
rate despite the fact that Congress has an 8% approval so the incentives are to raise a lot of money and the easiest way
00:12:37
to raise kind of a lot of money of small dollar donations it's actually easier than trying to get money from a pack or
00:12:44
big money and the way you do that is you say something fairly incendiary that tickles the censors of your tribe by
00:12:51
making the other side look stupid you say something it's Jewish space lasers or Biden is a war criminal that up on
00:12:59
Tik Tok and the hard left or the hard right see that and start sending in money and so you have some of the most
00:13:06
famous legislators in U US Congress have never passed a bill but are outstanding at
00:13:13
getting on Tik Tok and raising a lot of money so it's gone from politicians to performers I was just thinking about
00:13:19
have I ever seen a boring politician on go viral on Tik Tok and I've never I've just never seen it I've never seen a
00:13:25
boring but even in the case you said where if you say something in Century it's both sides send you viral yeah
00:13:32
which is interesting well look at Trump if he says you know if he says um something
00:13:40
crazy that I'm going to protect women whether they want it or not that goes viral and then everyone including on my
00:13:47
podcast we're talking about it instead of having a discussion about inflation or if Trump gets into office his current
00:13:54
economic plan shows triple the deficits of the Harris economic plan
00:13:59
that is essentially what we what we've been able unable to do the left's been unable to do is help young people
00:14:04
connect the dots that the deficit under Trump will probably be ultimately the
00:14:10
largest tax increase in history on young people because I'm not going to be around we we're fine for the next 20 or
00:14:16
30 years probably because of our creditworthiness and our ability to borrow money but at some point shit's
00:14:21
going to get real and the Chinese or foreigners are going to stop showing up to buy our treasuries interest rates are
00:14:26
going to Skyrocket you'd have massive inflation and at some point you know that debt is
00:14:32
going to come due right um you know I love that every lie is a debt and at
00:14:37
some point it comes due but we haven't been able to connect the dots for young people that these deficits will in fact
00:14:44
be attacks on young people because it's a wonky boring conversation and we'd rather talk about this outrageous thing
00:14:52
he said so these outrageous things people say take oxygen out of the room around any real discussion around policy
00:14:57
and in the US I don't know if it's same way in the UK but politicians love their jobs so they jerrym gerrymander every
00:15:04
District every congressional district is very hard red or hard blue so we send
00:15:09
kind of the crazies from the far left and the far right it's no longer the general election it's the primary so it's a war it's an election between
00:15:15
Republicans or an election between Democrats so they all try to out outc
00:15:20
conservative or out Progressive each other and we've sent a group of people to to Congress who fundamentally have a
00:15:27
entirely different worldview you than one another and also it's minority rule in the US 20% of our population is 80%
00:15:35
of the senator senators and the majority of Americans are somewhere in the middle and that it does not describe their
00:15:41
representation so we have sort of minority Rule now what has Trump done well so if you were objectively
00:15:46
analyzing his ability to capture votes and to get people to believe and come
00:15:53
with him what would you if you if this was a marketing class and you had marketing students in front of you and
00:15:58
they were trying to learn from him as to how to Market their products in their lives what would you say to them well
00:16:04
the the ultimate business strategy is when everyone's barking up the same tree when everyone's zigging you zag so I'll
00:16:11
just the notion that Amazon was the biggest e-commerce company the model was
00:16:17
you own the consumer data you build the biggest platform and then you slowly but surely start increasing your take and
00:16:24
then Shopify comes in and says your packaging your data I mean the opposite
00:16:29
of Amazon we're not about the customer we're about you're the customer you're the client you want to sell on our platform you own everything we're just
00:16:35
here to service you they kind of zag um that's the ultimate business strategy
00:16:41
when everyone's going way to go the other for the last 40 or 50 years politicians have been very
00:16:47
PG-13 trying to appeal to every group worried about offending everybody and
00:16:52
people over time just felt like this guy's really slick and makes me feel good but he or she's lying to me and
00:16:59
then he showed up and started saying these really offensive things that felt raw and felt authentic and really
00:17:05
appealed to people like this guy's unafraid he's telling it like it is and
00:17:10
he kind of tapped into this sort of grievance and anger that had been bubbling up and started saying these
00:17:16
really off-color things I'm going to ban Muslims from entering the country and a
00:17:21
lot of people even if they don't believe that said well you know he's not a politic he wants to burn it down and he
00:17:28
doesn't like he he wants to burn down his own party so he really tapped into
00:17:33
this authentic Zeitgeist of zagging while everyone was zigging he he's absolutely the most non-traditional
00:17:41
politician uh I think in person he is charming um he's done a great job with
00:17:46
social media capturing attention you know we're in an attention economy right and he every day is in the news cycle
00:17:53
realizing that it's like Umberto Eko the Italian philosopher said the new economy
00:17:59
is about being famous it doesn't even matter what you're famous for and he's captured that so he's comes across as
00:18:05
authentic unafraid Politically Incorrect in a sea of political correctness that kind of infected both sides he has great
00:18:13
political instincts um so he's he's kind of zagged
00:18:18
why everyone was zigging and and people found it refreshing and even if people don't like him they a lot of people
00:18:26
under the impression that because he's a business person I I think 40% of America goes into the voting booth and just
00:18:32
votes on who they think will put more money in their pocket full stop like government's ineffective I just want
00:18:38
them out of my pocket and I think correctly or incorrectly more Americans
00:18:44
believe that they'll have more money in their pocket because he's a businessman and will lower taxes even if we kick the
00:18:51
can down the road in terms of deficit he's convinced Americans that he's better on the economy than the
00:18:56
Democrats you watched him on Rogan the other day I saw some of it that whole
00:19:01
strategy of getting out and doing the podcast circuit I think is this is the first election cycle where I've seen podcasting becomes so important and that
00:19:10
Joe Rogan Trump moment I think is a real defining moment in podcasting but also
00:19:16
like um political strategy what did you think of that move you you're absolutely
00:19:23
right Stephen this so every election brings a new medium to the Forefront the Kennedy and TV
00:19:29
FDR and radio um Obama and Google uh
00:19:34
Trump and Twitter this will be the election the podcast election because the last time there was a presidential
00:19:40
race since the last presidential R race cable TV is down 22% and podcasts are up
00:19:47
30% so by going on Joe Rogan 11 million people 40 million people have seen that
00:19:53
on YouTube the average cable show gets about a half a million a prime time cable show gets about half a million
00:20:00
people so going on Rogan for Trump is the equivalent or reaches the same
00:20:05
number of people as if he went on MSNBC CNN and fox every night during prime
00:20:11
time for an hour every day for an entire week he will reach more people going on
00:20:16
Rogan you might get 300,000 or 400,000 going on CNN maybe for 6 minute or 10-
00:20:23
minute or 20- minute interview so this is definitely this the election of podcasts they have become dominant I
00:20:30
would argue the seminal podcast was actually uh vice president Harris going on callor Daddy because not only would
00:20:37
did they not go on this medium they wouldn't have gone on that type of podcast but for a week the entire Z us
00:20:45
was talking about that podcast it wasn't talking about her interview on Face the Nation or it was talking about her on
00:20:51
this podcast so this is the election of of the podcaster for me as an objective
00:20:58
marketeer watching that Rogan interview I thought that Trump's team did a master
00:21:04
stroke I thought it was yeah I thought they I thought it was absolutely the the perfect thing to do because absolutely
00:21:11
humanized Trump in a way softened him in a way that I hadn't seen before and funnily enough I won't name their name
00:21:16
but I know a lady who's um a very strong feminist and is very anti-trump and it's very liberal and she said she watched it
00:21:23
and the next day I said what did you think of it and she said to me I burst out laughing like 10 times he's so funny
00:21:28
he's a Charming guy what she said to me and he talks about you know when he was on The Apprentice and it softened him
00:21:34
made him seem more human which is what he needs um so it's a big mistake
00:21:40
occasionally I hear from the campaign and they ask for advice and whenever a campaign calls you and ask for advice
00:21:46
which campaign well I've the only people who' ever contacted me on been the heris side I got contacted by the Trump campaign in the last cycle but not this
00:21:52
one I think they've figured out who I'm supporting and whenever by the way I want to be clear when they call you and
00:21:58
ask for advice that's Latin for please send us money they I think they pretend to care what you think uh so I don't
00:22:05
want to pretend that I'm having any sort of influence but my one piece of advice to anyone I can talk to who's remotely linked to the Harris campaign is that
00:22:11
she get on a plane go to Austin and do Rogan why is it in your view that men are because you know Trump's assembled
00:22:18
this kind of this group of interesting individuals to to be part of his campaign from RFK to Elon to VC to Tulsi
00:22:26
gabbit now and and himself and this is drawn in it seems like young men it seems like a lot of the I actually did a
00:22:32
poll in my group chat the other day three or four days ago so six men in there and I pulled them I said who do you want to win the election and four of
00:22:40
them said Trump my position actually which I've not really ever Shar publicly is that
00:22:46
I I see no great option oh Perfect's not on the menu yeah I see no great option
00:22:52
so I'm like and the the things that again I think a lot about are the the war the wars that
00:22:59
are going around the world so ask myself who will stop the wars and I think a little bit about the economy and then also from a selfish perspective think
00:23:04
about my ability to build businesses to get visas in the US and those kinds of things Y and I also think about women's
00:23:10
Reproductive Rights because I think that's an issue that's quite close to my heart but why are men choosing
00:23:16
Trump so this is an unusual election in the sense that neither of these candidates based on their metrics has
00:23:23
ever been elected before we've never had since I think since maybe a Roosevelt
00:23:29
was it Roosevelt or Truman actually have we had a president an incumbent party be reelected when they're have less than a
00:23:35
50% approval so we've if Harris gets elected it's a almost a firsttime
00:23:41
occurrence that an incumbent Administration this unpopular gets reelected Trump never cracked 50%
00:23:47
approval no no presidential candidate who has never been above 50% has ever been reelected so whoever wins it's un
00:23:55
it's an unprecedented election of someone who typically does not get reelected in terms of
00:24:02
men what you've seen is young men are going more conservative young women are going slightly more Progressive and that
00:24:09
has a lot of unfortunate ramifications because again it's another reason why young people are not getting together and mating it's yet another reason not
00:24:16
to date somebody when I was your age I was thinking about this when I was dating for the life of me if I went
00:24:22
through every person I've dated in my 20s and 30s I don't remember what their political affiliation was I didn't care
00:24:27
we didn't talk about about that it was like you know are you fun I'm fun are
00:24:33
you attracting me I'm not you know like let's go out let's drink let's do what let's see where this goes didn't talk
00:24:38
about politics so it's a shame because now politics is now kind of a gender
00:24:43
divide so it's having social ramifications I would argue that young
00:24:48
men are not going to the Republican Party they're actually less conservative
00:24:54
or people have this image of young men that their Knuckles are dragging along on the ground they actually are
00:25:00
almost as in favor of gender rights as young women what I would argue is that
00:25:07
they're leaving the Democratic party because if you go to the DNC the
00:25:12
Democratic party's website there's a section that says who we serve click on
00:25:17
it and it says these are the constituents in America that we serve that we advocate for and at list 16
00:25:24
demographic groups ranging from um Asians and Pacific Islanders the disabled seniors black Americans um
00:25:33
veterans it goes through all of these groups and I tried to add it up and I
00:25:39
think it adds up to 76% of the US population but similar to kind of the
00:25:44
Dei apparatus on campus now or on University campus is when you're purposely advocating and trying to
00:25:50
Advantage 76% of the population you're not advantaging 76% of the population or
00:25:56
advocating for them you're discriminating against the 24% and that 24% are squarely one group
00:26:02
it's young men and if you look at the Democratic National Convention it was a parade of demographic groups but not one
00:26:10
mentioned the group that has fallen furthest fastest in the United States and that's young men families and young
00:26:18
men feel this right we don't have an opioid or a homeless crisis in the United States we have a male opioid and
00:26:24
a male homeless crisis three out of four opioid three out of four homeless people are men right three times as likely to
00:26:32
kill themselves 12 times as likely to be incarcerated women under the age of 30 are now making more money than men more
00:26:38
single women own homes than single men and by the way we should never do anything to get in the way of that that's a remarkable victory for us but a
00:26:45
lot of young men and their families feel that they are these young men are really struggling and they are not seen by the
00:26:52
Democratic party because the Democratic party I would argue that our big failure over the last 20 years is we've become
00:26:58
sort of these self-appointed cops of social justice and have tried to tried
00:27:05
to lecture the nation on what is the right social policy or behaviors and
00:27:10
that America has pretty squarely rejected this um um the example I use is
00:27:15
the University of Michigan amazing university has invested $150 million in Dei social policy and the number of
00:27:22
complaints about racism is up 30 fold the sentiment the feeling about America
00:27:28
has all gone down and so the Democrats have decided where about social policy
00:27:33
as opposed to the economic policies that are actually going to impact you and a large part of America has sort of
00:27:39
rejected it young men do not feel seen by the Democratic party and it's not only just young men but it's their
00:27:45
families so I would argue it's not so much they're moving to the Republican party as they're moving away from the Democratic party but there's just a to
00:27:52
use this overused term young men do not feel seen by the Democratic party it's like you're fighting for everyone except
00:27:58
for me and let's be honest my group is not doing well the group that has ascended the fastest globally is women
00:28:06
um twice as many women in the last 30 years elected to some form of parliament more women globally now are seeking
00:28:11
tertiary education than men by the way again a huge victory for all of us fantastic but there's this analogy that
00:28:20
uh uh Chris Williams the podcast kind of reminds me a little bit of you uses and he calls it the high heels effect and
00:28:26
that is 50% of women say they won't date someone who's shorter than them I bet it's more like 80% it's just an
00:28:32
embarrassing thing to say and it's very instinctual because women at some point are more vulnerable because of pregnancy
00:28:38
and raising kids and they want someone who instinctively they feel could physically protect them so they tend to
00:28:44
be not attracted to a man shorter than them metaphorically women are getting
00:28:49
taller and taller each year making more money more College attendance they're just killing it more and more people
00:28:55
elected to positions of power and influence men are getting shorter and shorter so in some you know we've talked about this
00:29:03
women made socioeconomically horizontally enough men horizontally and down the pool of horizontal and up among
00:29:08
men is smaller and when men don't have the prospect of a romantic relationship
00:29:14
they come off the rails women oftentimes will reinvest that energy in friendships
00:29:19
and work men reinvest that energy and vaping and video games and porn I mean
00:29:25
men without the prospect of a romantic relationship I mean look at the most violent unstable
00:29:30
places in the world they all have a preponderance of things and that is a bunch of men with very little economic or romantic
00:29:36
opportunities and so you have a cohort of not only young men but families that
00:29:41
are upset and angry about this cohort may be unfairly expectant around what
00:29:47
they should expect from the American economy but they're not doing well and they feel seen by the repu the
00:29:54
Republican party and Trump who are pushing back on many of these social policies that the snake is eating its
00:30:01
own its own tail that it's gone so far to the progressive that at the end of
00:30:07
the day it's no longer promoting the rights of non-whites for
00:30:13
example 60 years ago 12 black people at Princeton Harvard and Yale that's a problem uh two-thirds of Harvard's
00:30:20
freshman class now identifies as nonwhite and somehow as a non-white male
00:30:25
that's not making as much money that's more inclined to be an addict or gambling that owns fewer homes somehow
00:30:33
I'm still the enemy I'm still like I've been told by media that I'm kind of should have Collective guilt because of
00:30:39
the privilege my dad and my granddad received so there's a I think justifiable anger and a feeling that the
00:30:46
Democratic party has really moved away from young men it's interesting because
00:30:51
you you make the case that you're not necessarily convinced it's entirely young men are choosing the Republican
00:30:57
Party versus them being pushed out of the democratic partyy that's kind of summarizes your thoughts and the Wall Street Journal um did a piece showing
00:31:03
that the Republican Party have gained more young men over the last couple of years in 2016 they had 35% of young men
00:31:11
by 2023 they had 48% of young men and that's a 13o increase in just seven
00:31:17
years and I mean that's the stat from 2023 so I can't imagine what those numbers look like in 20124 based on this
00:31:23
election cycle um it made me think think a lot it made
00:31:28
me think a lot about the the Dei narrative and how the Democratic party
00:31:34
could Champion women without pushing away young men because we all want somewhere to belong so if you if you
00:31:40
tell me that I don't belong there and if I'm guilty of something then I'm going to go find somewhere and what is it that
00:31:46
the Republican Party have done because if that 133% increase towards the Republican party for young men is true
00:31:53
there's something the Republican party is saying yeah which is making me think I belong over there sure what is that
00:31:59
well to a certain extent I mean the strange thing about this one of the strange things about this election is
00:32:05
that a lot of people thought it was going to be a referendum on women's rights bodily autonomy I would argue
00:32:11
those voters are already decided if you're fiercely uh around uh focus on B autonomy you're going for Harris if it's
00:32:18
not a big issue for you um you're probably Trump or if you're pro-life
00:32:23
you're definitely Trump I actually think the election is going to be decided based on who presents a more
00:32:28
aspirational effective vision of masculinity and what you have on the far right is this vision of masculinity that
00:32:35
I would argue is kind of they would they would say it's being provocative aggressive speaking your mind strength
00:32:43
right toughness but the far right is basically saying be a little bit coarse and cruel
00:32:48
is how I would describe it the far left their vision of masculinity is be more like a
00:32:54
woman and neither of those seem to be resonating with men if any of them resonates it's it's the
00:33:00
right uh around young men around this vision of masculinity what I would argue
00:33:05
is that what we should or the way to
00:33:10
position that you said that you were passionate about bodily autonomy is the Democrats have not done a good job of
00:33:17
convincing young men that bodily autonomy will affect them specifically a lack thereof if you want to be kind of
00:33:23
cemented in poverty have an unwanted child as a man that's not going to help you economically the case I've been
00:33:30
making to young men when I did an endorsement of Vice President Harris is that I think if you pulled uh a bunch of men under the age
00:33:37
of 30 and said would you rather have more opportunities for sex or less opportunities I think the majority would say I'd rather have more opportunities
00:33:43
for sex what is going to happen to random opportunities for sex when if a woman
00:33:50
gets pregnant she might end up in an emergency room parking lot because the doctors won't treat her if say she's
00:33:56
having a failed pregnancy and she's in sepsis there are now instances where an e emergency room doctors are worried
00:34:03
about treating her for fear that they're going to be criminally prosecuted what's going to happen if a young woman gets
00:34:08
pregnant and has to carry the baby to term do you think she's more inclined to have random sex so I think what we
00:34:14
needed to do and we failed to do on the Progressive side is to say the bodily autonomy affects men almost as much as
00:34:20
it does young women and that the economic policies of Harris will also give you I mean if I think about
00:34:26
masculinity is being a a provider a protector and procreator provider who's going to give
00:34:32
young men the chance to be the better provider people think it's going to be Trump that he's a better business person
00:34:38
he did have a strong economy under his administration not as strong as the Biden Administration but the general view is he would offer a better economy
00:34:45
which atmosphere am I more likely to be a good provider in and they've done a better job of articulating that even
00:34:50
though I would argue the evidence is that if whether it's Goldman Sachs or any Investment Bank that's done the math
00:34:56
they've said that the economic growth under the Harris policies would probably be stronger especially when you take
00:35:02
into account that if if Trump enacts the tariffs he's talking about 60% on all
00:35:08
Chinese goods and does anything resembling the war on immigration legal and illegal that he's articulated that's
00:35:15
a recipe for inflation so I don't think I think the Republican party has done a better job of convincing men you're
00:35:20
going to have an easier time being our provider under our administration because look at him he's a billionaire we're about cutting taxes we're about
00:35:26
economic growth drill baby drill when I would argue the data does not reflect that protector this is where I think we
00:35:34
really blew it and that is and Michelle Obama gave a very powerful speech I
00:35:39
think your first instinct your operating system as a man should be your default operating system should be moved to
00:35:45
protection like real men break up fights at bars they don't start them real men protect their country they don't [ __ ]
00:35:51
post it real men have a real a real Instinct a refle Le Instinct I felt this
00:35:59
way very strongly when I was younger it was very motivating for me to protect the women in their life right you know I
00:36:06
don't know if you are you close with your mother not really I'm sorry to hear that um I was
00:36:13
very close with my mother and the first time I ever thought I need to get my [ __ ] together professionally was when
00:36:18
she got sick and I had this immense feeling of like failure as a man because I couldn't take care of my mom at the
00:36:24
level I wanted to I think that's a really good default setting for a man to move to
00:36:29
protection you don't need to understand the LGBT community you don't need to understand trans rights you don't need
00:36:35
to understand the nuances of legal or illegal immigration but when you see a group being demonized your default
00:36:41
setting should be to protection I think it comes naturally to men men are more inclined on the battlefield to run out
00:36:48
and save a comrade and get shot than women women are more thoughtful they're more like is that a good idea wouldn't
00:36:55
we be better retreating planning and then the [ __ ] out they're more they're more thoughtful they look at the fruit
00:37:01
and say is there pesticides in this whereas a guy sees movement in the bushes grabs a spear and tries to go
00:37:06
kill the thing and bring it back they're more prone to they're more risk aggressive and I think this default
00:37:12
setting of protection is really powerful for men and we haven't connected and I
00:37:17
thought Michelle Obama did an outstanding job trying to make the case that men need to have a default setting around protecting women and women's
00:37:23
rights are under real serious threat in the United States it is becoming a little bit handmaid's taale 21 States
00:37:30
now restrict to some extent abortion and the most mendacious thing about that is it's not a war on women it's a war on
00:37:37
poor women because if you have money and someone your niece or your daughter gets
00:37:43
pregnant you'll figure it out you'll get your you'll get a medical abortion you'll have access to mesop festone I I
00:37:50
don't know if I'm saying that correctly or uh can get her on a plane to a city
00:37:55
where she can terminate the pregnancy it's the 15 or 17year old black girl who
00:38:02
gets pregnant doesn't have access to resources single mother doesn't have money is embarrassed and no one knows it
00:38:09
until she's five months pregnant that person is really screwed so I I would
00:38:14
argue that the second leg of the masculinity stool here around
00:38:20
protection is uh not been made that strongly or as forcely as it should be around the Democratic policies I was
00:38:26
trying to think through the lens of someone a young man in the U in the USA
00:38:31
who is looking at both candidates and thinking which one is going to allow me to be the protector the better and again
00:38:37
this is where the economy comes back in because I think to myself well if I'm rich I can take care of my mother if I'm
00:38:43
rich I can take care of my family so if I want to be the big strong protector then I need to vote Trump because I'm
00:38:48
gonna get rich I think that's their message and I would argue the data actually says uh something different
00:38:55
that if you look at the economic policies the the the clearest signal we
00:39:00
have of what policies would be under Harris would be to look at Biden's policies the last four years as a matter
00:39:06
of fact she made a huge mistake on a big show called The View they asked her how she would differ how her policies would be different for Biden and she says I
00:39:12
can't think of anything and it's like well we didn't want to elect him again why would we want to elect you it was a huge gap and by the way she's not good
00:39:19
on her feet I mean we don't like to say that on the left she's gotten better she was outstanding in the debate cuz you
00:39:26
could tell she practiced and the split screen she destroyed him during the debate but on her feet she's not nearly
00:39:32
as good as him he comes off he says stupid things but he's likable and funny and she thinks too much she's just you
00:39:38
see her trying to M for the perfect answer whereas he just goes blah blah blah blah blah I walked into the room and I told Putin stop that I said way I
00:39:46
mean you're like you said way to the president of Russia and also if you want to see real sexism and misogyny in
00:39:54
America there's just no getting around it she is graded on an entirely different curve
00:40:01
than him if she had ever been accused of sexual assault if she'd said half the crazy [ __ ] he said it just would be like
00:40:09
everyone's hair on fire she'd be totally disqualified you know van Jones who I admire a law said he's Lawless she has
00:40:16
to be flawless I mean people are parsing her words and then you know he says he
00:40:24
says the most the strangest weirdest thing things that make no sense and seem sort of just you know just ridiculous so
00:40:31
she's graded on an entirely different curve than him but provider right
00:40:36
they've done a better job protector I think men are young men are starting to see that this is getting really serious
00:40:43
around bodily autonomy we're heading the wrong direction and then procreation and all these things are tied together she's
00:40:49
Pro you know she's offering a first-time home buyer's tax credit small business
00:40:54
loans she her tax policy would probably better for young people worse for older rich people right so I would argue that
00:41:02
and also at the end of the damn bodily autonomy uh I go back to what I said
00:41:07
earlier guys if you're looking at have sex you got to give women control dominion over their domain over their
00:41:13
own person there's there's a few things that I thought as you as you were talking through that then one of them is
00:41:19
um in life generally you've got to be careful what hill you build yourself and
00:41:25
what I mean by that is if Kamal Harris has built this hill of perfection and polish then that's what she's graded on
00:41:31
and it's the same for all of us I remember having a conversation with my friend who was taking to the internet to talk about environmental issues and
00:41:37
stuff like that when I knew he didn't really give a [ __ ] about those things and I said to him I said be very careful because if that's the brand you build
00:41:43
for yourself that's the also the brand you'll be attacked based on because no one wants a contradiction so be careful
00:41:49
you might not want to be perfect I think the the best the sort of most protective position you can take in a world of cancer culture and wokeism is to admit
00:41:56
how [ __ ] you are at everything and admit how imperfect you are and how much you don't recycle because then at least nobody can call you out and what
00:42:03
Donald Trump has built is this hill of like kind of sloppiness off the cuff so we're so desensitized to it and we don't
00:42:09
actually hold him to the standard of the law anymore yeah and so he it's he's almost impossible to attack because it's
00:42:15
so consistent so consistent if you're going to be accused of assault by a woman the kid to be accused by
00:42:21
28 uh you know you don't you don't say one offensive thing you say offensive things every time you open your mouth
00:42:27
rap this of the prime example no one comes at them for what they say no but if some if Taylor Swift said something off i'' be like whoa you know so it's
00:42:35
flood the Zone but he seems authentic and I also think that this is
00:42:40
a lesson for the Democratic party I think to get out of identity politics I don't think we should have that page
00:42:46
identifying policies based on your race your sexual orientation your gender I I
00:42:52
I think the sun has passed midday on that on Dei the whole de thing I would argue that affirmative action is a
00:42:58
wonderful thing and it made sense for it to be race-based back in 1960 what is that sorry well Dei or affirmative
00:43:06
action so essentially in America we've decided to Advantage certain people from a very young age we give them money we
00:43:11
give them preference getting into college we're told we hire them based on their gender their sexual orientation
00:43:17
the color of their skin so we give we Advantage some people which there's just
00:43:23
no getting around it disadvantages others so the question is most people agree Democrats and Republicans that
00:43:28
some people have had so many headwinds in their face they deserve a hand up the question is how do you identify and
00:43:34
what's the metric for qualifying for a hand up and traditionally it's based on De the Dei apparatus built on campus has
00:43:40
been based on identity politics you know are you gay are you non-white right
00:43:46
where and what I would argue is that we need to move past that get out of identity politics still have affirmative
00:43:53
action but it should be based on color and that color should be green and that is is in America and this is wonderful
00:44:00
today you'd rather be born non-white or gay than poor and there's all sorts of evidence
00:44:07
and so Harvard now two-thirds of their freshman class is non-white but 70% of
00:44:12
those non-whites came from upper inome homes with dual parents so letting in the Taiwanese billionaire private Equity
00:44:20
daughter is not diversity so where I think we need to head in the nation is to move away in the Democratic Party
00:44:27
from Identity politics and say you know what we're here to to continue to reinvest in the greatest innovation in
00:44:32
history and that's the middle class and we're here to give people from uh lower income homes a hand up and by the way
00:44:40
70% of the people who now benefit from affirmative action would still get it because we do still have a bit of an
00:44:46
economic aparti in the US black and Latino households average net worth around 20 25 Grand Average White
00:44:51
household 150 160 Grand so what you would do is the people who would lose in
00:44:57
a new construct would be non-whites from wealthy households and the people who
00:45:02
would gain are white kids from appala who come from alcome homes but you tell
00:45:07
some white kid being raised by a single parent in Kentucky whose dad has been
00:45:13
incarcerated that oh no you don't deserve any sort of help that family is
00:45:19
pretty pissed off so I and I have a bias here I'm a beneficiary of affirmative action I got
00:45:27
something called pel grants I was raised by a single immigrant mother who lived in d a secretary household income was
00:45:32
never over $40,000 so I got grants not loans based on my household
00:45:38
income and that obviously I'm a big fan of that and so I think the Democratic
00:45:44
party would be well served to move away from Identity politics and just talk about things like the middle class talk
00:45:51
about helping people who are you know if you if you are from a top one % income
00:45:57
earning household you're 77 times more likely to get into an elite school the
00:46:02
best thing that can happen to you in the US the smartest thing you can do is decide to be born to Rich parents it's
00:46:08
in a different life and so I believe what the University of California system did in 1997 27 years ago is the right
00:46:15
way to go and that is they banned race-based affirmative action and they have what's called an adversity score
00:46:21
now and they say has this kid shown resilience and an ability to overcome obstacles in his or her life
00:46:28
and I think that's the right way to run quite frankly government policies because when we get into identity
00:46:34
politics I think it just creates more it's now creating more problems than it's solving I completely agree and I'm
00:46:41
obviously you know think people would consider me to be a black man because my mother's um Nigerian and I was born in
00:46:47
Africa but and you know we had a tumultuous start uh in in to
00:46:55
my to my life I guess in in a way because we we didn't have money in the household we struggled economically but
00:47:01
now I'm good yeah so my future black kids aren't requiring any kind of
00:47:09
advantages because they're going to be born into a different class 100% so you don't need to give my future black kids
00:47:15
advant like any leg up in the world when they've started with a dad who can who is can open doors for them and can get
00:47:22
them into whatever school he wants to get them into so my belief has been and it's a real belief that's grown grown in
00:47:27
me over the last couple of years is that we should be doing this based on class as you say yeah and benefiting those at
00:47:32
the very bottom of the socioeconomic ladder um with those advantages and not people like my future kids that's right
00:47:38
who absolutely will not need it in any regard and I do think there the Dei conversation is a bit problematic and
00:47:43
I've tried to keep it away from my my companies but at the same time we do want a diversity of opinion we do want a
00:47:49
diversity of lived experience because we're in the creative Industries and we want to see we want to represent the world but we don't want to be
00:47:56
disproportionately handing out opportunities based on factors like race alone or gender alone it's encouraging
00:48:03
to hear you say that but also I also have to acknowledge I've been the beneficiary of massive bias I didn't
00:48:10
even when I was raising money for my compies in the 90s I didn't even acknowledge it why are the only people
00:48:17
getting funded in Silicon Valley white dudes all white dudes 98%
00:48:24
of the capital was going to not men white men it's like okay I didn't even
00:48:29
notice and it's gotten a lot better but when I was raising money from my last company L2 The Venture Capital firm that backed
00:48:37
us they have a standard and that is you have to meet with all the partners in a
00:48:43
one big meeting 27 Partners my two co-founders both women I'm in there I didn't even notice meeting goes well in
00:48:50
the middle of the meeting my co-founder who's not a dramatic person goes I need to speak to you we walk out and she's like we can't take money from these guys
00:48:56
I'm like why what's happened she's like you haven't noticed all 27 people are
00:49:02
men there's not a single woman in the partnership at this ventri Capital firm not one out of
00:49:07
27 and I it it didn't even dawn on me that all of this prosperity and
00:49:13
opportunity had been crowded into basically 23% of the population now having said that that was
00:49:20
2014 10 years later I think a quarter to a third of their partners are now female
00:49:25
because they got the memo and things have changed dramatically and I would like to think that we've made enough progress around affirmative
00:49:32
action around identity that we can move to what you're talking about and that's economically driven affirmative action
00:49:38
and the great thing about this as well is as you said a second ago the people who are in those minorities because of
00:49:43
the statistics will be included within a class-based system the majority the
00:49:49
majority yeah yeah um which is really really encouraging you talked about this
00:49:54
October surprise being t Hing Cliff's um speech at the Madison Square Garden
00:50:02
rally the other day you know there's a lot going on like I don't know if you guys know this but there's literally a
00:50:07
floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now yeah I think it's called Puerto
00:50:14
Rico okay all right okay we're getting there it's absolutely wild to see and in
00:50:21
Texas stuff is really really crazy we're right there by a wide open border where
00:50:26
my proud Latinos at tonight you guys see what I mean it's
00:50:32
wide open there's so many of them it's absolutely
00:50:38
incredible Believe It or Not people I welcome migrants to the United States of America with open arms and by Open Arms
00:50:46
I mean like [Applause]
00:50:53
this it's wild and these Latinos they love making babies too just know that
00:50:59
they do they do there's no pulling out they don't do that they come inside
00:51:06
just like they did to our [Laughter]
00:51:11
country Republicans are the party with a good sense of humor I I feel like I'm in
00:51:16
two minds about it because I think mind one is I go he's a comedian and everybody knows he was telling a joke
00:51:23
everybody knows that a wasn't Trump that said it and everyone knows that he's a comedian there to say inappropriate
00:51:28
things if you've listened to his kill Tony show that's what he does yeah he's not I there's no part of me that thinks
00:51:35
God he hates Puerto Ricans whatever and then the other part of my mind goes they should have known that in that context
00:51:40
any word would be used as an opportunity to create a marketing campaign do you think what do you think of that incident
00:51:47
uh so there's common ground with us I think comedians should be cut a really a really wide birth I think when Dave
00:51:52
Chappelle says offensive things about the trans community he should be given a wide
00:51:59
birth when Michelle wolf at the White House correspondence din her says really off-color things I think she should be
00:52:04
given a wide birth comedians play a really important role and that is they say provocative sometimes obnoxious
00:52:11
offensive things to soften the beach to get you to think and they're comedians so I agree
00:52:17
with you they should be given a wide birth in my view whether you think it was racist or not I don't think that's
00:52:24
the important conversation it's 10 days before the
00:52:29
election art is getting away with it if you say something offensive it better be
00:52:34
funny I say part of the success of my podcast with Caris Wier is I say
00:52:40
very offensive things you know she's a lesbian and I'm like you know how's the
00:52:45
German Shepherd in the Subaru and there's a pause an uncomfortable pause and then she laughs
00:52:51
and it gives everyone permission to laugh and the majority of the times I say something offensive it's a little
00:52:56
bit oh like I don't want to laugh but that was funny I get away with it that's art he did not that was not art it
00:53:04
wasn't funny I mean the worst the most offensive thing about what he said was it wasn't funny if it had been [ __ ]
00:53:09
hilarious people would be like oh my God they'd like and they would have forgiven him his jokes did not land and when you
00:53:15
said things like we welcome immigrants with open hands and what we say to Mexican immigrants is no not here and uh
00:53:23
and by the way they have kids they come inside just the way they came inside and it's just like it just wasn't that funny
00:53:28
it was offensive if you're going to be offensive you better be funny and he wasn't and just tactically speaking when
00:53:35
you say that there's this floating island of garbage in the sea and it's Puerto Rico and there are 400,000 Puerto
00:53:42
Ricans in Pennsylvania and if 10,000 more who might have sat on the couch that day
00:53:49
actually get up and kind of you know souls to polls feet on the street get to the pole those people could swing
00:53:57
Pennsylvania which is a toss-up right now and Pennsylvania could swing the entire election so just tactically
00:54:03
speaking whoever's in charge of his campaign when they saw the teleprompter by the way they knew what was going on
00:54:09
this was on a teleprompter on a risk adjusted basis they should have said no
00:54:14
we're going to put the jokes about Puerto Ricans aside for now because if for whatever reason on a risk adjusted
00:54:20
basis we offend them we could lose the entire election so I don't even think of
00:54:25
it as an argument around whether comedians should be given a wide birth or not I agree with you I don't I don't
00:54:30
think a conversation around whether it reflects racism on the part of of the
00:54:36
Trump Administration or the fact that they quite frankly have a really appealing sense of humor one of the
00:54:42
things I hate about my party quite frankly is we become [ __ ] humorless everything's
00:54:48
offensive everything is I mean unless it's a dad joke everything is offensive
00:54:55
or triggers people people people are just so sick of that [ __ ] a post racist
00:55:01
Society I majority of my close friends are gay and they constantly make fun of
00:55:07
my sexual orientation and I make fun of theirs and it's a form of affection it's not mean-spirited and the Democratic party
00:55:14
feels just so sensitive and so weak on this [ __ ] so whether you think that's
00:55:21
the right way to go to be a touch offensive sometimes very offensive in the hospices of Comm I'm down with that
00:55:28
tactically it was stupid and I believe it might be the October surprise I'll be
00:55:33
very curious I have friends who are campusing and I I want to be clear a lot of this is confirmation bias I'm seeing
00:55:40
ghosts where I want to see them right because I'm really hoping it's vice president Harris but I have talked to
00:55:46
people in the Harris campaign we have 300,000 people feed on the street walking people to the polls Trump
00:55:53
supposedly has 50,000 somewhere between 30 and 50,000 so for every one person knocking on doors for a trump voter and
00:55:59
saying did you have you gone to the polls do you need to walk there do you need a ride there there's 10 people in
00:56:05
these states these swing States working for Harris I think they might get another five or 10,000 Puerto Ricans who
00:56:11
weren't going to vote to the polls and that could swing the entire election I just think tactically on a risk adjusted
00:56:17
basis it was a really stupid move yeah 100% on strategic tactical giving the
00:56:23
other side an opportunity to run ads with the Trump little placard thing there was someone insulting Puerto
00:56:29
Ricans most people wouldn't have seen the rally so all they're going to see is this clip hundreds of millions of people are going to see that clip and they're
00:56:34
going to think Trump Vance insulting Puerto Ricans that's who I am that's my blood I can no longer with good faith
00:56:41
tick that box I can no longer do it so they'll either not not tick it or they'll go to the polls and they otherwise wouldn't have done so
00:56:47
tactically and strategically terrible decision but it's funny because I also look at it as I said as an incident in
00:56:52
an isolation and I go it actually put me off a little bit that the left because of the fake outrage I
00:57:00
know you're not that pissed off yeah yeah like dare look at I'm get I know you're not
00:57:05
that pissed off at that like if you are I feel really sorry for the life yeah you know what me we're going to be fine but strategically and objectively bad
00:57:12
decision I completely agree yeah um who do you think is going to win well I tell you I'll tell you what I'm doing this
00:57:17
afternoon I'm GNA bet $358,000 on poly Market I'm I'm doing
00:57:24
this I have my CFO figure this out I'm going to invest bet
00:57:29
$358,000 on Harris because on polym Market it's
00:57:34
6238 because my observation is that the people who go to these betting sites tend to be younger tend to be more male
00:57:41
and they're much more Trump the statistics and the polls every A+ quality poll shows it is a toss up
00:57:49
within the margin of error with a slight advantage to Trump so if I said to you
00:57:55
Steve and I'm going to flip a coin you have to pick heads or tails if you bet a dollar
00:58:01
though you're going to get $2.90 back you would take that bet because say it's
00:58:07
a 50% or close to 50% likelihood but the payoff is 2.8 to one on a risk adjusted
00:58:13
basis you're getting free risk adjusted return here's why I wouldn't bet on Harris is because I've seen that Hillary
00:58:19
Clinton election where all the polls had Hillary winning in a landslide and then something happens there's this visible
00:58:26
force that means that people for whatever reason either they don't express their true um opinions about
00:58:32
Trump because there's you know social ramifications they're embarrassed or the the enthusiasm Force which is who have
00:58:40
you got more energy to get off the sofa that day and go and vote for is it Hillary Clinton who's kind of more of
00:58:45
the same whatever or is it Trump who's going to burn it down I think that's a fair point the so but back to the the
00:58:51
380 if I win I get a million bucks back so even if the edges to him on a risk
00:58:56
adjusted basis it's a great bet because you're getting the the odds of her winning are
00:59:02
not one and three they might be they might be two and five but they're not one and three and so I just look at it
00:59:09
statistically that I'm getting free potential free risk adjusted upside anyways what you said about the
00:59:15
enthusiasm I went canvas for uh secretary Clinton I think secretary
00:59:20
Clinton was like I I I think she's incredibly unlikable and an out standing
00:59:27
thinker and politician I think on foreign policy she's she's one of the most competent people to have ever been
00:59:34
in government when I canvased for her in Florida I went into sort of a i' call it
00:59:39
a lower upper middle class neighborhood mixed quite a few black people quite a
00:59:45
few whites I go into black households I knock on the door I'm canvasing for for
00:59:50
secretary Clinton oh come on in super nice you voting yeah you voting for
00:59:56
secretary CL yes I am do you know where your polling station is oh no we have M are you registered you just started to
01:00:03
like it's the enthusiasm clear wasn't there and a couple times when I would knock on and again I'm playing identity
01:00:09
politics maybe a white more often a white household that was a trump supporter they slam the door in my face
01:00:15
and I said to the they always send you out with two people I'm like that's passion the other folks are being nice
01:00:21
to us they don't even know where their polling stations are they're not turning out like they were they weren't there's not the enthusiasm there was for Obama
01:00:28
and I remember thinking we might be in trouble here the the embarrassment or
01:00:34
hold my beer while I go behind a curtain and vote for Trump effect I think that's mostly gone away I don't think people
01:00:40
are nearly as embarrassed to say they're trumpers now I don't so I think I think
01:00:45
the polls are probably there's less of a Delta between the polls and what's actually going on than I think than there used to be uh but you know the
01:00:52
honest answer is I don't know the three reasons or the reason Reas I think that Harris is might pull it off or is going
01:00:58
to pull it off is one the issue impacting women is bodily autonomy I do
01:01:05
think women are young women are squarely in Harris's camp and quite frankly women
01:01:12
are more organized so you have a young man and a young woman both planning to vote there's a much greater likelihood the woman actually votes this is sexist
01:01:19
but women are more organized they're more meticulous they're better planners they're better allocators of their time you're going to have more men young men
01:01:26
on November the 5th for whatever reason something's going to get in the way and they're not going to make it to the polls that's going to happen a lot more
01:01:32
to Young I mean you'll see this when you're you have young men I have a 17 to 14-year-old young men are just dopes I'm
01:01:38
not even a dad I'm their prefrontal cortex I'm helping them make decisions
01:01:44
and young men's prefrontal cortex literally doesn't catch up to a woman's until they're about 25 and then it
01:01:49
catches up so I'm banking on a much more a much bigger turnout among young women
01:01:56
than young men and that's Advantage Harris I do think the last minute thing around Puerto Rico was really stupid in
01:02:03
Pennsylvania and also I'd like to think some of this message around men being protectors and the message that I think
01:02:10
the Democratic party has done a pretty good job over the last couple weeks is guys it's time for us to step
01:02:16
up um but again this is all confirmation bias I'm looking for reasons why Harris
01:02:22
is going to win the majority of the polls I see within the margin of error
01:02:27
but if you were a statistician and you had to pick one you'd probably pick Trump right now so do you think Trump's
01:02:33
going to win I don't I think Harris is gonna win really you think haris yeah I you know what I don't again I think when
01:02:39
people get behind the the curtain it's like I think people are just
01:02:44
exhausted America is so it's like if America were a horror movie The call is coming from inside of
01:02:50
the house it we're doing really well on the majority of dimensions that people
01:02:57
we're going to grow our economy next year in terms of gross domestic product by more than the rest of the world
01:03:02
combined and gross dollar level this is all prefrontal cortex well can you name
01:03:07
a great AI company outside of the US most dominant technology in history created more shareholder value in the
01:03:14
last 24 months in the entire Auto industry has done since the beginning of the Auto industry what AI company exists
01:03:20
outside of the US this is all prenal CeX though like and what's the amydala the amigdala the emotional Cent of the brain
01:03:26
is seeing this guy in a suit get off a plane with his name on it and it so it
01:03:31
doesn't really matter what you say when you come on the podium I just saw a billionaire got off a plane with his name on it I go he's gonna help me get
01:03:38
rich that's what the brain the brain is like and it's so interesting because as a marketeer you know I've come to learn
01:03:44
over time that stories especially emotional ones always Trump data facts and stats in every regard I had I sat
01:03:50
here with a neuroscientist one day who was talking about Trump and I think it was Dr Ben Carlson and they were having
01:03:56
a debate during the I think the early primaries maybe in 16 and they were talking about the vaccine and the doctor
01:04:02
made his case for why the the vaccine doesn't give you autism went through the stats the facts and the figures and then
01:04:07
the neuroscientist said to me she goes and then Trump made his case and he started his case like this the needle I
01:04:12
got a friend who was has a daughter who is this big and points to the floor and
01:04:18
they came to her with a needle this big and they gave her the injection and she's got autism yeah and the
01:04:25
neuroscientist said to me she goes I know he's not telling the truth but even me I felt less likely to give my
01:04:31
daughter that vaccine because of that one emotional personal anecdote versus
01:04:37
the stats and this is what this election looks like to me the stats don't matter the facts don't matter how do I feel
01:04:43
what is the frame telling me when I look at you also it it reflects uh a a lack
01:04:49
of respect for our institutions both Republicans and Democrats the antia movement actually
01:04:55
started on the far left it was sort of a granola don't put weird things in your bodies but I think as much as you're
01:05:01
talking about wanting to tickle people's emotional sensors or they move they want to feel good as opposed to think about
01:05:06
the data we used to come together around data and we used to respect institutions when the American Pediatric Association
01:05:12
said there's no evidence showing a correlation between vaccines and you
01:05:17
know myocardia or whatever it is there's no there's no we can't find a correlation between vaccines and autism
01:05:25
the CD the American Pediatric Association the American Health Association the Journal of America jam
01:05:31
now people are like oh you can't trust those folks because there's a lack of respect and I do think the right's been
01:05:38
more responsible for for the left they they go after institutions and so people
01:05:43
don't know who to trust and they trust their social media algorithm now which is feeds them really incendiary kind of
01:05:50
polarizing content but back to why I think Harris ultimately is going to pull it out I think people are exhausted Stephen and
01:05:56
I think that Trump represents more chaos and exhaustion right now do people I
01:06:02
don't know this but I'm hoping quite a few swing voters are going to go do I really want to go back to that do I
01:06:08
really I mean it was pretty people I don't think people I wonder if people are going to remember I like wish they
01:06:14
had those apple reels just how chaotic and tense it was I mean think about Biden that I the thing I love most about
01:06:20
Biden was he was pretty boring boring you know I think people have forgotten what it was like that covid
01:06:26
the the black lives matters protests everything being smashed to Pieces the US burning um and then the like whole
01:06:32
covid chaos and when I looked at the stats ahead of our conversation today about that asked people are is your life
01:06:38
better or worse than it was four years ago most people think their life was better then and they because they you
01:06:44
have this Ro Rose tinted sort of glasses about the past it's why that question I can't remember was it Reagan or one of
01:06:50
the politicians who was the pioneer of that election shifting question which is do you feel better off now than four
01:06:56
years ago it works every election cycle because people almost always think they were worse off four years um they were
01:07:03
better off four years ago than they are today they all like always think you could say that in any election cycle and
01:07:08
it's persuasive and you go you know actually yeah even if you have more money you're doing your health is better your your education's better you'll
01:07:14
still look back at the past and go those were the good old days I think it's just a bias of humans you roast into glasses
01:07:20
you forget the bad well and also for in America if you're under the age of 45
01:07:26
you've never experienced inflation and when you look back and think wow a hotel
01:07:32
room at the Bly Hill Hotel you're going to La is up is doubled in the last four
01:07:37
years and it has the seral I buy is up 30 or 40% again you get a raise you think it's
01:07:44
your grit and character the price of cereal goes up you blame you blame the government but I don't I mean I'm hoping
01:07:51
Harris wins and I'm finding reasons why I think she will it's total confirmation bias
01:07:56
what I also really hope happens is that whoever wins I hope it's decisive because political parties you
01:08:03
know in the 30s we had kind of the new deal from Democrats 80s we had the Republican Revolution people kind of
01:08:09
came together and admitted this is where America wants to go things the worst thing about you can
01:08:16
argue the worst thing the thing that's ailing America is what's ailing the Middle East there's never a definitive
01:08:22
winner there's never someone there's never a party that they kind of I don't want to say the best thing that could
01:08:27
happen because I I think one part's got it wrong on things like bodily autonomy and peaceful transfer power but we need
01:08:35
a party to kind of come in and win 55 or 60% of the vote so there's no arguing over the direction America wants to go
01:08:41
right now because if it's really close there's just going to be so much I mean
01:08:46
the amount of money that's being lined up and the number of lawyers lined up to contest the election on either side
01:08:52
right now is just crazy and one of the things I love about about the UK you guys start and finish an election in 8
01:08:59
weeks and it also kind of seems like whatever this guy's name is people don't
01:09:04
like him but they don't hate them it's sort of like okay it's over keep calm and move along in the US it's it's
01:09:11
gotten so it's like we're so spoiled by our blessings and our
01:09:16
prosperity uh the one algorithms have taken us away from each other also and I
01:09:22
realize I'm paranoid but it doesn't mean I'm wrong I I think the CCP in Russia cannot beat us kinetically they cannot
01:09:28
beat us economically so they're weaponizing social media platforms to divide us from one another and I think
01:09:34
they're doing a really good job and Americans are easier to fool than convinced we've been fooled and I think
01:09:40
there are Bad actors foreign actors who weaponized these platforms to quite frankly start getting us to hate each
01:09:45
other the easiest way to defeat Native Americans was to get them Waring with each other and have them kill 30% of
01:09:52
each other and then come in for a cleanup operation and I think that's happening in the US right now if you go
01:09:57
on Tik Tok there's 52 pramas videos for every one pro-israel video and I'm not
01:10:03
suggesting the CCP or the gru are anti-semitic I'm suggesting they see an opportunity to polarize people
01:10:09
internally in the US and get us hating each other no one can defeat us right now we are we are undefeatable from a a
01:10:16
military or an economic standpoint right now the way to defeat us and deposition us strategically internationally is to
01:10:22
get us hating each other and I think they're doing a good job that's the most convincing argument I've actually ever heard for why China played a role in Tik
01:10:29
Tok and why also they don't care about owning it is because they set up an algorithm which is so unbelievably brutal um we always from I come from a
01:10:37
social media background where we worked in social media for 10 15 years now and the one defining thing about this the
01:10:42
Tik Tok algorithm is if you post something regardless of how many followers you have it'll either get a
01:10:49
thousand views or 7 million it's the only algorithm with such extreme variance and what that tells you is that
01:10:55
the algorithm is basically saying okay take that and show it to everybody and actually that's not good to show it to
01:11:00
nobody and because it's doing that you can imagine the amount of sort of division where polarizing content on
01:11:06
this side is going to everyone Nuance goes to No One Nuance like unemotional Nu Nuance takes goes to no one and then
01:11:12
polarizing content on the left or the right also goes to everyone so if I was actually thinking about if I was
01:11:18
brainstorming in China and I wanted to tear the West apart what I would do is I would introduce an app that has an
01:11:24
extreme algorithm either way and I wouldn't care about owning it I wouldn't care about they can run it I'll give
01:11:30
them all the all the shares just get it into their society while over there in China we control our algorithm well we
01:11:37
don't and we don't allow foreign actors anywhere near I'm going to list now every American Media company in China
01:11:43
okay I'm done they just there's no way they're going to let us over there and yet we have a neural Jack implanted into
01:11:49
the wet matter of our youth it's more dominant than CBS ABC and NBC were in
01:11:54
the 60s so would we allow would we have allowed the Kremlin to own CBS NBC and ABC that's what we're doing right now
01:12:01
with Tik Tok kids spend more time on Tik Tok now under the age of 25 than they spend on all broadcast
01:12:07
media uh combined this is also true of meta and the primary fuel for that
01:12:14
algorithm what the algorithm tries to sus out the thing that used to be the ultimate gangster moving marketing used
01:12:20
to be sex sex sales show hot people playing volleyball and people well if I drink more beer I too will be hot right
01:12:27
if I have this car I'm more likely to have a random sexual experience I would really like to have more random sexual
01:12:34
experiences so I'll buy the new Chrysler cardoba with original Corinthian Lether right it used to be sex cells basically
01:12:41
meta figured out there's something better than sex rage so if you have a long hourlong
01:12:47
conversation with a epidemiologist it says yeah we rolled out the polio
01:12:53
vaccine too quickly in the 50s and 60s and a bunch of people died but generally speaking vaccines uh are
01:13:00
probably have Pro probably prevented more unnecessary Death than anything in
01:13:06
I mean a long thoughtful conversation that's data driven the algorithms hate that [ __ ] but if you're RFK Jr and
01:13:13
you're on a podcast he leans in he says Stephen the best thing you can do when you see someone with a baby is to say to
01:13:20
them don't get her vaccinated like he he's this handsome charming guy and he looks looks at you and says that's the
01:13:26
best thing you can tell a new mother oh my God the algorithms love that because
01:13:31
the people who have been worried about vaccines and and and believe that
01:13:37
conspiracy love it and people like me get [ __ ] outraged in [ __ ] post him
01:13:44
more comments algorithm oh my God more comments more interaction more Nissan ads more shareholder value so let's take
01:13:51
the most incendiary [ __ ] and give it way more reach than it would get
01:13:56
organically so it's happening naturally even Among Us companies but then if I wrap it in cute dance videos and I can
01:14:04
put my thumb on content that's really incendiary whether it's a conflict in the Middle East or income inequality or
01:14:09
the lack of opportun I mean just a lot of my content around how young people are not doing well has gone viral on Tik
01:14:15
Tok and I'm kind of playing into the algorithm oh this gu saying young people should be angry we like that thumb on
01:14:23
the scale I just think it's so so ridiculous that we don't think we're being played what would we do in the
01:14:30
west if we had an opportunity to dial up anti-islamic Republic content in a
01:14:37
social media platform in Iran you don't think we'd game that [ __ ] we have a division of the army called scops that's
01:14:43
all they do is try and spread our media content that's very pro-american and anti our adversaries across different
01:14:50
mediums across the world the problem is we're not used to them doing it to us
01:14:56
and it's so genius meta involved I'm uh I finally got after seven years I
01:15:02
finally got an original scripted series on big Tech greenlighted it's going to be on Netflix and I'm really enjoying
01:15:08
putting together certain scenes and scenarios and a scenario I believe has happened over and over is that
01:15:13
Zuckerberg goes in front of Congress and gets pillared no concern for young people Skyrocket and teen suicide they
01:15:20
got their Tik Tock moment then he goes into a confidential Security hearing and he says guys do you want me to continue
01:15:25
to help you kill terrorists meta is the ultimate Espionage vehicle the mosad the CIA the gru would kill to control meta I
01:15:33
can tell someone's relationships their vulnerabilities where they are I can GPS locate it I bet says do you want me to
01:15:39
continue to help you kill terrorists and they say yeah and then he's like then back the [ __ ] off and what do you know
01:15:45
there's never been a law passed regulating social media I think that is what is happening after these Congress
01:15:51
people get their Tick Tock moment we're riding a scene right now where I believe
01:15:56
that a lot of the drone strikes against terrorists in Yemen and other places have been aided by social media
01:16:03
platforms tracking people down your 14-year-old has their phone out and they're on Instagram and their dad or
01:16:08
their Uncle at the wedding of bad people doesn't know this kid's on their phone they've all been told I mean everyone is
01:16:15
on these platforms so I think we're doing it and the CCP would be stupid not
01:16:21
to be dialing up content that makes us angry at each other such we're not focused on whether China invades Taiwan
01:16:27
or not they have a they'd be stupid not to be doing
01:16:33
this do you think age matters in this election Trump's age what's he's gonna be 80 something years old but he'll be
01:16:41
he he's he'll be if he's elected he'll be older than when Biden was elected the differences he presents is more Rob and
01:16:48
we don't like to admit this as Democrats he presents is more robust than Biden I mean remember when Biden made the trash
01:16:54
comment like he popped up out of nowhere I'm like oh Biden's still around it felt to me like a video of someone about to
01:17:02
go into hospice saying how much they love their great great grandchildren he he started over the the previous two
01:17:08
sentences that managed to get the words out and I oh gosh man his voice is weak he just he feels like he's passed his
01:17:15
expiration day and on the Democratic party we're so politically correct we thought we were being aist and if if
01:17:22
Harris loses I don't think I don't think it's going to reflect well on Biden Biden did not want to drop out we have
01:17:27
this myth that he dropped out no he was booted out Nancy py wed Pelosi walked up speaker Pelosi and said if you don't
01:17:33
drop out she saw the down ballot was going to be terrible with him at the top of the ticket every day for the next 10
01:17:39
days I'm going to have more and more people come out against you in your party he did not want to they haven't
01:17:44
spoken since that conversation the notion yeah they haven't spoken how' you know uh there's uh she'll admit it she
01:17:51
said publicly they haven't had a conversation since that conversation I mean the notion that all of a sudden he woke up whatever it was nine weeks
01:17:59
before the election and decided it'd be best for America if I dropped out no these people are narcissists the same
01:18:05
way Ruth Bader Ginsburg her narcissism ended up hugely D No One Believes
01:18:11
they're actually going to die right I mean did you you didn't see Senator Feinstein it was ghoulish it was the
01:18:16
land of The Walking Dead and she couldn't show up for a hearing by virtue of you running for office to to put up
01:18:23
with all of that [ __ ] you have to have get tremendous gratification from ego-driven Industries you have to be I I
01:18:30
think it's almost impossible not to be a narcissist Biden's narcissism May cost us the election
01:18:36
because the reality is this would have been a much better candidate had there been a competition not a coronation we
01:18:43
are great at producing qualified candidates who have to go through if you talk to anyone who's going on a mission
01:18:49
in the military and they get to pick their crew the first question is very simple have they ever seen combat have
01:18:55
they ever been on a mission that involved combat that's the first consideration there's just nothing that gets you ready for combat like combat
01:19:03
and the primary process is combat the debates the media scrutiny you get good
01:19:09
you get Battle tested or you get swept off the deck immediately here are some of the people who are leading in the
01:19:15
polls you know who Herman Kane is oh he's the is he the the black yeah the
01:19:21
black he was leading he was the he was leading the Republican Rudy Giuliani was leading do you remember who Fred
01:19:26
Thompson was no star of La law he was number one in the polls soon as the campaigns and the primary started they
01:19:32
got swept off the decks now Vice President Harris may have well been the candidate that won but I think she would
01:19:39
have been more paddle tested if she been forced to do a series of debates or we would have ended up with a Nome or a
01:19:44
Whitner I think we did oursel a disservice or specifically Biden and the Democratic party who thought that aism
01:19:50
got the memo about being biology got the memo about aism and politically correct
01:19:56
it is insane that we allowed that to happen to go on as long as it did he should have been forced out of the race
01:20:02
well before he was I think in there'll be a lot of second guessing if she doesn't win uh I think a lot of it is going to
01:20:09
land on his shoulders and the people around him in the Democratic party who went into this consensual
01:20:15
hallucination that that we were being AIS well you know who else is AES biology and biology's attitude was hold
01:20:21
my beer look at this guy you said on the pivot that there's a one in three chance that Trump dies in office just based on
01:20:28
his AG in BMI if I was an insurance agent and he wanted $300,000 in
01:20:34
Insurance life insurance and I didn't need profits or anything I would charge him $100,000 because just based on his
01:20:40
body mass index and his age there's a one in three chance he leaves feet first from the White
01:20:46
House two last things Trump and Elon Musk what do you make of that partnership do you think that's been a net positive for the Republicans and oh
01:20:53
yeah yeah yeah when you you see that rocket booster rocket barreling
01:20:58
towards gravity gravity like sucking it back down and then it ignites and somehow this [ __ ] straightens out and
01:21:05
it's and it veers and navigates into these giant metal
01:21:10
Chopsticks you're just like [ __ ] a man I want a Tesla I want to go on
01:21:15
Twitter I wanna what whoever that guy is voting for I'm voting for I mean that stuff is impressive he's also got a very
01:21:24
big platform form to weaponize he's basically said I don't care if it's illegal I'm going to run these contests
01:21:31
million bucks a day to registrant I think he's probably the most aspirational figure among young men
01:21:37
globally I mean he's building cars rockets and has brain chips it's like
01:21:45
he's every eight-year-old boy's dream tunel yeah I mean he impossible not to
01:21:51
admire on a lot of levels it's very good for Trump feeds into this manosphere Politically Incorrect economic growth
01:21:58
the guy is there's no doubt about it a genius and a RIS Taker and has balls the
01:22:04
size of Saturn to do the [ __ ] he's done so huge huge Advantage Biden one of
01:22:11
Biden's biggest mistakes politically was he had an EV Summit and
01:22:17
he didn't invite musk so let's have the woman who invented the Pontiac Leaf there but we're not going to have Tesla
01:22:24
there that was so that was so stupid and I I've hold grudges for much
01:22:31
less than that and Elon used to be kind of a he voted for Obama I wouldn't
01:22:36
describe him as a hardcore conservative but he said he queued for hours and hours to shake Obama's hand yeah so we
01:22:45
Biden uh blew it and also the really dangerous thing about an autocracy is that it's really effective and that is
01:22:51
the following if you do the algebra if I'm a VC that's bet big on
01:22:58
crypto and I say you know Trump says to me raise me a billion dollars and I'll have the FED announce that they're
01:23:06
putting 10 billion into crypto into Bitcoin all he I wouldn't be surprised
01:23:11
if this conversation has happened hey Mark Andre I know you have huge investments in Bitcoin and crypto and the blockchain I'm going to take Bitcoin
01:23:18
to a million dollars a coin and this is how I'm going to do it and I need you to raise me a billion dollarars I I bet
01:23:25
something along that conversation has happened a former Attorney General and
01:23:30
someone who's raised you know went to law school I don't think she's had that conversation with anyone or at least
01:23:35
it's it's a lot less a lot more opaque in addition the algebra is the following
01:23:42
if I support Trump and he loses there's really almost zero chance I might not
01:23:47
get an ambassadorship to France but there's zero chance vice president Harris is going to weaponize the doj and
01:23:52
come after me he has threatened people and companies with the full the full power
01:23:59
and heft of government agencies if they're not supportive of him so I support
01:24:05
him and he loses I'm still fine and I'm money good if he wins I support her and
01:24:12
he wins I don't know I talked to a very famous host of a morning show that's
01:24:18
this iconic journalist who's been very anti-trump he's thinking about moving to London if he wins not not one of these
01:24:25
oh I'm out of here I hate America he's physically worried that he might be that
01:24:32
he that he will need to go offline for a while because he doesn't want to get in the crosshairs of the doj or
01:24:38
organization weaponized Jamie Diamond smart guy great leader I just don't
01:24:43
believe Jaimie diamond in any way supports Trump but occasionally throws out a nice thing about him because he
01:24:50
wants to be treasury secretary and he doesn't want Trump coming after JP Mor by the way JP Morgan is worth more than
01:24:56
the 10 biggest banks in Europe just to give you a sense of how well the American economy is doing so the upside
01:25:02
the math is the following I have less downside if I support Trump than if I support Harris what happens to America
01:25:09
if Trump wins do you think well are you scared of that America no not as much as people are I
01:25:16
think that catastrophizing on both sides is ridiculous uh not ridiculous I I just
01:25:22
don't think it's warranted it doesn't recognize history America is so strong economically I think America is such an
01:25:29
incredible experiment people still want to go there the human capital inflows are still unbelievable the
01:25:35
risk-taking the institutions I think America is stronger than any individual candidate and I think we have survived
01:25:42
worse than him or her both sides claim it's the end of America if he or she gets in the catastrophizing from both
01:25:48
sides I don't think recognizes history nor appreciates America has endured much worse than him or her so I don't think
01:25:55
America goes away or anything like that there are certain groups that will be hurt uh I do believe
01:26:02
women who want to have bodily autonomy if he gets another one or two appointments on the Supreme Court we
01:26:09
could see pretty pretty onerous uh abortion laws across not 21
01:26:15
but maybe 41 maybe even a federal ban I mean it could get pretty ugly for women who who believe that bodily autonomy is
01:26:23
is important I think it's ugly for young people to rack up these deficits essentially a deficit is a tax on young
01:26:29
people paid in 10 or 20 years deficits don't matter deficits are really good for me because I get the champagne and
01:26:35
cocaine of short-term stimulus we're spending $7 trillion doll a year on five trillion and receipts that's great for
01:26:41
me my stocks go up the price of my homes go up by the time [ __ ] gets real and
01:26:47
Chinese don't show up for a treasury auction I'm probably I don't know sitting in Aspen waiting for the ass
01:26:52
cancer I mean I'm literally going to be 70 or 80 by the time that happens people your age by the time you come into your
01:26:59
Prime income earning years if you're in America you might see mortgage rates of 22% you might see runaway inflation
01:27:05
these deficits are totally out of control so I think young people long-term economically I think women in
01:27:11
terms of bodily autonomy shortterm are big big losers corporations probably win in the short
01:27:17
term with Trump because he he's talking about he's talking about doing away with
01:27:22
all taxes I pay American Tax tax right now he's talking about doing away with taxes for guys like me that live abroad
01:27:28
that I won have to pay taxes I'm like all right brother let's rock on let's
01:27:34
roll but young people in America who are going to have to deal with a debt to GDP
01:27:40
that might be two or 300% which usually doesn't end well so I think certain groups won't do well but the notion that
01:27:47
we're going to the America's going to go away or all of a sudden I think we'd probably have less Authority on a global
01:27:53
stage I it's very hard for us to wave our finger at anyone I think we'll lack moral
01:27:58
Authority with someone like Trump in office but at the same time a lot of policy experts say
01:28:04
people Nations might be more afraid to take actions against America because
01:28:10
he's unpredictable he's not measured in any way so do you think he's more likely to end the
01:28:15
wars because I have to be honest this is one where I I go I think Trump calling
01:28:21
up a Putin right well is more likely to and the war than camela Harris or the
01:28:26
Democrats calling at Putin because they're they're on a similar wavelength of um I don't even know what the word is
01:28:34
but I feel like that's there's a higher probability I'm not saying it'll be a good deal for the Ukraine right but I think the missiles will stop
01:28:40
firing so from Putin's end if if Trump is is in power I understand that math
01:28:46
the way I do the math is similar but it's when the when that call happens and what position of Leverage we're in to
01:28:53
force Putin to to strike a deal that restores maintains as much dignity as possible and land for Ukraine and I
01:28:59
think that call is best placed when it's fairly clear the West is willing to go
01:29:06
much deeper and much longer I think the Russians respond to one thing leverage and power and I do think the Europeans
01:29:12
are actually ready to step up if America steps back I think we get quote unquote a better deal if that call is yeah I've
01:29:20
just allocated another 60 70 billion we're ready to do this Europe's stepping up this is going to continue to be a
01:29:27
meat grinder for you um or we can do a deal I think that's the call you want
01:29:32
whereas I think Putin gets on the phone with Trump day one and thinks I have a lot of Leverage here this guy wants this
01:29:38
guy wants out he's he's going to pull funding uh so I think the call happens
01:29:43
either way I don't think it happens as quickly in a democratic Administration but I think we have more leverage also I
01:29:51
I'm a bit of a I don't want to call myself a Warhawk but but if you talk about the Middle East I think there's a bad there's such
01:29:58
a thing as a bad piece we need to end the war people are dying unnecessarily let's cut a deal down
01:30:04
now that was the advice that many members of parliament and Church's War
01:30:10
cabinet gave to him in 1939 there is a bad piece and I think I
01:30:16
think that uh I I mean I've said this I've got a lot of [ __ ] for it I think
01:30:21
Israel is doing our Dirty Work in the US Israel in 6 weeks eliminated more
01:30:26
terrorists on the US most wanted list than we had in the last 20 years I think there's a greater likelihood of peace
01:30:32
now with the defenestration and elimination of uh Hamas a weakening of
01:30:39
hesah and the taking out of a lot of these terrorist leaders I think Middle East peace is more
01:30:47
sustainable because uh Israel's gone on the offensive in this war and I think in America we have such a kneejerk reaction
01:30:55
to peace is always the answer because we've never really been attacked you could say 911 but we've recognized so
01:31:01
many blessings and no so much Prosperity I think that our go-to is always peace there is a bad peace and I
01:31:08
would argue that I'd like to see we all want peace in the Middle East but the question is how do we get to a sustain
01:31:14
peace and sometimes that I think there is a good War so I'm more of a I'm more on the side I think than many people on
01:31:21
Israel's offensive actions I think the what they did in um Lebanon taking out
01:31:27
the the Hezbollah combatants was the most prec precise anti-terrorist action in history I think it was just
01:31:34
incredible and then I I see real hope here I think after the war is over the
01:31:39
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia I think will normalize relations but I would argue all the death and destruction of the whr
01:31:45
on both sides I don't want to say it's never worth it for the people who incur that type of Destruction I actually am
01:31:50
hopeful I think there's going to be a more sustainable peace in the Middle East because I think there's going to be a winner here and I think the winner is
01:31:57
Israel and I think a lot of nations in the Gulf want to normalize relationships with Israel and I think if the Kingdom
01:32:03
of Saudi America I'm getting really off topic here and Israel normalize relations that's going to create an Iron
01:32:08
Dome that is more effective than their existing Iron Dome so I'm actually quite hopeful that this war will result in a
01:32:15
more sustainable peace and I'm not sure that pieces was the answer as most Americans feel it is I think everyone's
01:32:21
hoping for peace I I think that there's there's so much um there's so much generational hate and resentment that's going to remain agreed in the aftermath
01:32:28
that um and with the way the algorithms are I think well are we creating more terrorists than we're killing yeah so I
01:32:35
think stability is probably less likely in my view um lastly men you're writing a book about men yeah that's exciting
01:32:43
yeah well why I mean you've written books there's a hormone that supposedly
01:32:48
is released when women go through child birth that creates literally Amnesia otherwise they would never have another
01:32:54
one cuz it's such an unpleasant experience for them I feel like the same thing happens to me every time I write a book and that is I forget how awful it
01:33:02
is and I sign another contract and now I'm like I'm chapter two or three and I'm like Jesus Christ I can't believe
01:33:08
I've signed up for this [ __ ] again but I've been thinking a lot about struggling young men it's something I
01:33:14
identify with I was one of them I don't think they're getting nearly the recognition I think of any other special
01:33:19
interest group if you went into a morg and five of the people who had died by suicide four of them were one special
01:33:25
interest group you'd go there's something wrong we need to weigh in with programs four out of five people who kill themselves in the US are men and a
01:33:34
man after divorce it's not only young men a man after divorce becomes eight times more likely to kill himself and we
01:33:40
have a society that is increasingly for a lot of reasons sociological biological and economic reasons a lot of men feel
01:33:46
useless and worthless and those are the two words you hear most in suicide notes so the key is how do young men get a
01:33:52
code you can get a code from military religion your friends your family work and I think that we need to recreate and
01:33:59
articulate a code around masculinity what do it mean in a modern age to be a man it's something i' I wanted to do for
01:34:05
a long time and it's also something that I think I'm hoping um can have more value than
01:34:12
writing about you know I don't know [ __ ] Facebook over and over again I mean I think people have heard that
01:34:19
anyways are you hopeful for men and the poite of men young men and struggling with man the pat answer is well Stephen
01:34:26
I'm an optimist I'm not I'm a glass half empty kind of guy I struggle with anger and depression I have a tendency to see
01:34:32
things what's wrong with things um that's the bad news the good news is I hate my life less and less every day but
01:34:39
yeah I I do think that I do think the opportunities the agency young people
01:34:45
have they're more socially conscious the fact that the economy especially in
01:34:51
America tends to be up and to the right I do think I think people are recognizing I track all the inbound
01:34:57
emails I get I get about 80 emails from strangers a day the number one email that's Towing you down lately is the
01:35:03
following is it too late to invest in Nvidia that's the number one question I get on an email the number two most
01:35:09
frequent email is an email from a mother a single mother worried about her sons my daughter's in PR in Chicago my other
01:35:17
daughters at pen my son is in the basement vaping and playing video games and so I think that
01:35:24
we're finally having a productive dialogue you mentioned Andrew Tate I think that took the dialogue to a bad
01:35:29
place because then for a couple years whenever you started advocating for men there was a gag reflex that oh here's
01:35:35
another guy in the manosphere that's basically thinly failed misogyny we are finally having a productive conversation
01:35:41
I know you've had Richard Reeves on this podcast he in my opinion and to a certain extent Jordan
01:35:47
Peterson who deserves a lot of credit for bringing up these issues before it was politically correct but Richard's
01:35:52
work at the American insute for boys and men has really highlighted how severe and deep the problem is and even a lot
01:35:58
of feminists and people who you would expect to push back on a discussion or advocacy for men recognize that we can't
01:36:04
have an America we can't have women who flourish if men are floundering and I
01:36:11
think people are finally coming around to the fact that there's something wrong in Mudville here and it requires attention and resources and creative
01:36:18
thinking around how we can help this group so I'm actually more optimistic now
01:36:24
about our willingness to have a productive conversation around the plights of young men instead of a a
01:36:30
politically charged conversation I think the [ __ ] I hear online yeah you know
01:36:35
well now your hair is on fire where were you for the last 2,000 years as women and people non-whites have been I'm like
01:36:41
well myons I think we were there for you I think we I think we've done stuff I think we've tried and now it's now it's
01:36:46
time to recognize a women still face huge obstacles we should be focused on them
01:36:52
we should do nothing to slow the progress but we have to acknowledge what's going on with young men and that it requires empathy it requires
01:37:00
resources it requires a productive conversation and I'm optimistic we're finally starting to have that
01:37:05
conversation my last question to you before I go to the book is and something that I was thinking about as you spoke about the young kid in his basement his
01:37:12
mother emailing him to you her his her daughters are doing fine but the son is in the basement playing video games it's
01:37:18
a word you mentioned earlier but a word that we had a debate about on this this podcast a few weeks ago which which is
01:37:23
the conversation around pornography yeah it's become so prevalent only fans figures are tremendous the revenue the
01:37:30
profit of that company um with the decline of sex amongst young men having
01:37:35
sex later and later and less and less with it becoming harder and harder to find a partner pornography is now a
01:37:41
booming industry a bigger industry than ever before one thing I learned which I didn't realize recently is that women
01:37:47
get addicted to pornography and men and I didn't say that in the debate so I just wanted to say that because the top comment on the debate video was by the
01:37:54
way we as women we I'm I have a pornography addiction too and actually a really good friend of mine sent me a
01:37:59
seven minute voice note saying I've just listened to the debate I was really annoyed because there was two women sat there and no one mentioned the addiction
01:38:05
that people like me have to pornography and my friend said to me and she's spoken about it now publicly that she had a pornography addiction but going
01:38:11
back to the point um pornography MH should that kid in the basement be
01:38:18
watching pornography well there should and there there there is okay so he is watching
01:38:26
pornography and a lot of it and most of the research shows that a small number of people consume a disproportionate
01:38:33
amount of porn and it isn't necessarily it's like drinking
01:38:38
or consuming THC porn in moderation I think I I don't think is necessarily an
01:38:44
evil I'm not like project 2025 is talking about banning pornography and I
01:38:49
actually think only fans is sort of an interesting economic Innovation I like the fact fact that a lot of young people
01:38:54
are making a lot of money doing I mean I'm a little bit torn on it
01:38:59
the the point you're getting to is a larger point and that is one of the biggest threats to young men is that the
01:39:06
most talented deepest resource companies in history are trying to convince people
01:39:12
specifically young men they can have a reasonable fact simile of life on a screen with an algorithm you don't need
01:39:19
friends go to Reddit and Discord and find people who are specifically interested in the weird thing you're
01:39:24
interested in right you don't have to try and make plans with a kid at high school after you don't have to try and
01:39:29
make friends you I don't I remember it was hard to make friends but once you made them the barriers of exit were strong we had a posy of Five Guys two or
01:39:37
three of us didn't like each other but we were friends we were in the group together you don't need that now you got
01:39:42
Reddit in Discord you don't need to go through the humiliation of going on Linkin and trying to interview and
01:39:48
showing up for work on time and not getting high at night because you got to get up at 8: in the morning you have
01:39:53
just trade stocks or crypto on Robin Hood or coinbase right and that's where I really hate the manosphere is all this
01:39:59
[ __ ] just take my crypto course to learn how to make money and get a supercar like me I mean that is just
01:40:05
pure theft in my view you don't need to go through the humiliation the endurance of showering
01:40:12
getting in shape having a plan learning humor going to bars going through the
01:40:19
rejection of online dating of trying to approach train women and make them feel
01:40:24
safe while expressing romantic interest romantic comedies are 2 hours not 15
01:40:30
minutes for a reason this [ __ ] is hard why do that when you have porn so when I coach young men one of the first things
01:40:36
I say is look I'm not going to lecture you I I consume porn right but try and
01:40:44
modulate it because the reason I have the most rewarding thing in my life
01:40:49
which is my boys and raising them with a competent partner is not because I had this Vision that I'd be a great dad
01:40:55
someday or I knew what that reward was you don't know what it is you don't know what it is until it happens it's because I saw a woman at the Raleigh Hotel pool
01:41:02
and I really wanted to have sex with her I wasn't looking at her and think you know what this woman's going to be great at raising children This Woman's going
01:41:09
to be great at buying homes distressed real estate in Florida that creates cash flow for us and our family this person I
01:41:16
just get the sense she's a really high character person and my partner is all of those things I just desperately wanted to have sex with her and then we
01:41:23
started having sex and then we decided we liked hanging out together and then before I knew it we were spending all of our time together and then before I knew
01:41:29
it we decided to move in together and then we got a dog and started playing house and here I am engaging in what is
01:41:36
the most rewarding thing I have ever engaged in the Mojo to have sex is super
01:41:42
important the only reason I graduated from UCLA is because occasionally I go on campus thinking I meet might meet a strange woman to have sex with otherwise
01:41:49
I don't think I would have graduated I never would have gone on campus and I know how ridiculous that sounds but sex
01:41:54
is a huge motivator and what I would say to men is you got to have that drive to
01:42:00
have sex with women is a wonderful thing that's one of the reasons we're on this planet and the more you engage in porn
01:42:07
and start believing that that is a reasonable fact simile of real sex
01:42:12
you're not you're going to lose your mojo you're going to lose your desire to work out your desire to be attractive be
01:42:18
you know if I could give advice to young men and young women to young men is pretty simple be the guy you'd want to
01:42:24
have sex with get your [ __ ] together you don't have to be rich but have a plan hit the gym every once in a while dress
01:42:30
well smell nice for God's sakes figure out a way to make a woman laugh take
01:42:36
risks take chances endure rejection that's okay if you approach a woman and she's not interested in you you're both
01:42:43
going to be you're both going to be fine you have to have that Mojo and the advice I give to young woman is the
01:42:48
second coffee can't tell a woman to have higher to lower standards
01:42:53
but every song and every piece of social media is basically telling women oh he
01:42:59
did this walk right out of that door you don't need that man it's like okay and and now what
01:43:06
right I think there's so much loneliness and so what I coach young women around around dating is like oh I met him he
01:43:13
was okay like if you if you survey married couples who've been married longer than 30 years 3/4 of them say one
01:43:21
was much more interested than the other in the beginning and it was it was it was the man men are much less choosy
01:43:27
than women cuz the downside of sex is much smaller for us cuz we don't get pregnant so they're much choosier so
01:43:33
what a man needs is an environment to demonstrate Excellence I found out he was
01:43:39
kind uh he was great at work he was great with clients I started getting attracted to him he was funny I like the
01:43:45
way he smelled but where does a man have an opportunity to demonstrate Excellence they're not going to school they're not
01:43:51
going into work young people aren't drinking as much by the way you've probably had humor hubman and ATA I
01:43:56
think young people need to drink more I don't see drunkenness I see togetherness drink more alcohol yeah drink more I
01:44:02
think they need to get out and drink more yeah my my advice to young people is to go out and drink more and make a
01:44:08
series of bad decisions and might payoff I think that we need we need more
01:44:13
togetherness more people more more sex uh and more um more Random
01:44:21
Encounters and absolutely people need to be in the company of strangers more and more and I think young men are
01:44:27
sequestering we're turning into a different species of asexual socially isolated lonely people
01:44:35
who become shitty citizens and when women don't have a romantic relationship they reinvest in work and their friends
01:44:42
when men don't have a relationship they tend to just go down um a rabbit hole back to your
01:44:49
original question modulate everything you do you drink too much alcohol it's going to get in the way of your life
01:44:54
you're smoking too much pot it's going to get in the way of your life you're consuming too much porn it's going to reduce your desire to take the risk and
01:45:01
go out and meet somebody or put in another way you porn is a distant second to your
01:45:09
porn get out there and start making your own porn and you might find that you
01:45:15
fall in love establish the most meaningful thing in life and that is a deep meaningful relationship with someone you want to build a family with
01:45:22
and a lot of times for men that starts with sex and there's nothing wrong with that if you're an entrepreneur you're
01:45:28
probably going to want to listen to this it's a message from one of our sponsors on this podcast which is LinkedIn if
01:45:33
you've listened to me on this podcast for a while now you'll know that I've been on a bit of an evolution as a business owner and entrepreneur and one
01:45:39
of those Evolutions that has become clearer and clearer as I've matured is that the single most important thing in
01:45:45
building a business in building a company is hiring the definition of the word company is actually group of people
01:45:53
and that is the first responsibility and job that any entrepreneur has and should focus on but surprisingly most don't
01:46:00
about 80% of my team have been hired from LinkedIn and I think there's very few platforms if any in the world that
01:46:06
could give you that diversity of candidate with that much information and data on their profiles it usually costs
01:46:12
money but for the entrepreneurs that are listening to me I've got you a free job ad post for your company on LinkedIn
01:46:17
just go to linkedin.com doac to post your free job ad today that's link linkedin.com doac terms and
01:46:25
conditions apply Scott the closing tradition we have on this podcast is maybe somewhat linked to what you just said and it's um
01:46:32
funnily enough it's been left by the CEO of Google the former CEO Eric Schmidt I
01:46:37
know Eric he's been on my pod guy it's gonna see I already don't like this it's going to be some very thoughtful
01:46:43
question about the future or the environment or something well it kind of links to what we were just talking about which is the question is what are you
01:46:50
scared about with AI and our
01:46:55
future the fears around AI that it's sentient and decides in a
01:47:00
millisecond that we're all a nuisance and to kill us uh misinformation is a big threat polarization weaponization of
01:47:08
our elections income inequality those are all real threats I think the biggest threat of AI is loneliness and that
01:47:17
is I don't know if you've seen any of these AI Bots oh yeah but if I'm a Young
01:47:22
Man I feel rejected online in online dating where the average the man of
01:47:27
average attractiveness in online dating has to swipe right 200 times to get a coffee and four of those five coffees
01:47:32
will ghost me so I have to connect swipe right a thousand times to get one coffee
01:47:38
and then I have these AI Bots that are very attractive and increasingly
01:47:45
lifelike uh I worry that uh AI is going to create a series of fake relationship
01:47:52
ships that reduce our desire to make real friends take real risks I think ai's
01:48:00
biggest threat is loneliness and I one in seven men don't have a single friend one in four men
01:48:06
can't name a best friend and I think AI is going to create too many reasonable fact similes of relationships I think
01:48:13
the biggest threat of AI is loneliness it's so interesting how technology over the last like 10 years but even in this
01:48:18
moment has made all of our human desires not only go to a screen but it's made them friction free and like you said
01:48:25
earlier like low calorie so I was just thinking about like social networking made staying in touch with my friends
01:48:31
easy but shallow and dating apps made like uh or or pornography has made
01:48:38
sex seem easy but it's not sex it's not the real thing and in the context of AI
01:48:43
for me these relationships it's difficult to have a relationship with my partner it's diff because we argue and we clash and then she doesn't she
01:48:49
interrupts me and I interrupt her and we F and IU was three hours trying to you know get my point be feel seen and heard
01:48:56
with AI I can have a relationship she loves you it's never going to argue with me so easy but not the real thing and
01:49:03
this is the world I think we we're slowly heading towards which is causes me some concern I guess is that it's
01:49:09
going to be easy but it's not going to be the real thing look you know this with your
01:49:14
partner there's just moments you have with your your mates moments you have with your
01:49:20
parents moments you have with a romantic partner and then
01:49:25
ultimately moments you'll have with your children that's the whole shooting match
01:49:31
anything anything else is just Memorex it's just not it's not the same and also
01:49:38
when we sequester from one another uh we become more prone to conspiracy theory we're less empathetic
01:49:44
to one another uh yeah I think I think the the the biggest threat is political the
01:49:51
second biggest threat is political extremism from both sides but I think the the thing that ails us is is
01:49:58
loneliness because tech companies are trying to convince us you don't need to go through that rejection or that hard
01:50:04
work I'll give you a reasonable fact s we have a relationship on a screen there's value in all the friction
01:50:11
in life isn't there it seems raising kids or having relationships going out and getting rejected putting the perfume
01:50:16
on and I sometimes think that you know we're choosing comfort and anything that
01:50:22
gets rid of the friction without realizing that all the friction I've described there's huge value in like
01:50:27
going to the gym there's huge value in that um but technology and we're in a
01:50:32
technology Revolution is is going to offer us a nice lowcost substitute for
01:50:38
that friction in the form of you know all these things the only thing I can promise young people is a certain amount
01:50:44
of joy and tragedy in their life and a lot of that that ratio is about the circumstances they're born in and how
01:50:49
they approach life but the only other thing I can promise promise them is anything wonderful in their
01:50:55
life is super [ __ ] hard that's it a good relationship making money the only
01:51:02
thing I can guarantee you and anything that's really rewarding is it's going to be really
01:51:08
hard and so it should be as it should be yeah Scott thank you so much I the
01:51:13
biggest fan of this book your latest book the algebra of wealth so much so that I I've endorsed it on the front there um but it's I mean every time you
01:51:20
come on you blur this thing that's how big time you are that's humiliating oh my God you're right on the front did you
01:51:26
not know I was in the front of your book dude my publisher decides all this [ __ ] that's somewhat humiliating that a guy
01:51:32
30 years younger than me is on the cover of my book my best blurb though is on my last
01:51:38
book I had Elon Musk he said uh an insufferable num skull he said that about me so I said Put it on the book
01:51:46
put it on the book thanks for that man no worries thank you so much for all that you do Scott and um we shall see
01:51:52
about your prediction and what happens over the over the coming week with the American election but either way I'd love to chat again to you soon because
01:51:57
you're so vastly wise and unbelievably remarkable um communicator and Storyteller in a way that just grips
01:52:03
people so thank you for teaching me everything you've taught me everybody needs to go get this book everybody needs to go listen to your podcast where
01:52:09
I've been closely following all of your analysis on the election I saw you you coming out and endorsing CA which is why
01:52:14
I reached out um originally but I'll link your podcast below and also the pivot podcast for everyone to go and
01:52:19
have a listen if they want to hear more from you Scott thank you thank you Stephen congrats on all your success appreciate it thank you
01:52:32
[Music] [Applause]
01:52:38
[Laughter] [Music]
01:52:44
[Laughter] [Music]
01:52:49
[Applause] [Music] [Applause] what what the actual [ __ ] I mean thank
01:52:57
you this is great I almost slipped and broke a hip there don't do that in my age Jesus happy birthday I'm
01:53:07
shaking oh my God this is so lovely and entirely inappropriate and unexpected
01:53:13
and frightening thank you so much you know I'm 50 yeah oh my God Y how is your
01:53:21
birthday this Sunday so yeah thank you this is great wow
01:53:29
birth isn't this cool every single conversation I have here on the DI of Co at the very end of it you'll know I ask
01:53:36
the guest to leave a question in the Diary of a CEO and what we've done is
01:53:42
we've turned every single question written in the Diary of a CEO into these conversation cards that you can play at
01:53:49
home so you've got every guest we've ever had their question and on the back
01:53:54
of it if you scan that QR code you get to watch the person who answered that
01:54:00
question we're finally revealing all of the questions and the people that
01:54:06
answered the question the brand new version two updated conversation cards
01:54:11
are out right now at Theon conversation cards.com they've sold out twice instantaneously so if you are interested
01:54:17
in getting hold of some limited edition conversation cards I really really recommend acting quickly
01:54:24
[Music]
01:54:43
[Music]
