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thank you [Music] [Music] thank you welcome to True Crime garage wherever you are whatever you're doing thanks for
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listening I'm your host Nick and with me as always as a man who loves the Power of just keeping it together here is the
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captain yeah the power of drugs it's gonna be seen and it's good to see you thanks for listening thanks for telling
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a friend [Music] we are still drinking s'mores Stout by Untitled art out of Wisconsin smore
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Stout is a pastry Stout with vanilla beans candy syrup and milk sugar ABV 8 garage grade four and a half bottle caps
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out of five and here's some cheers to our good friends that helped us out with this week's beer run first up it cheers
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to Melissa and Harrells North Carolina a big we like to jib to Madeline and Madison Wisconsin and here's one from
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Elena H in Parts Unknown big shout out to Carmen in Marshalltown Iowa next up Captain we have a cheers to Carrie and
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Marina Del Rey California and last but certainly not least we have Jessica at State College PA everyone we just
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mentioned helped us out with this week's beer fund and for that we thank you yeah
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Colonel that is enough of the biz all right everybody gather round grab a chair grab a beer let's talk some true
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crime [Music] when we left off yesterday Captain we left off with that strange text that was
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sent from Chase to his aunt she responds asking if he's okay and then receives no
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answer from chance now Chance's mom said that he did not use emojis and so she's
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very suspicious of this text she believes that someone else had his phone at this time now that we have a little
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bit more information about the timeline let's go through it in a clear and concise manner before we move on so
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based off of all reports sometime between 7 20 and 7 30 p.m chance left his in-laws residents at the 700 block
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of O Street at 7 45 he calls his friend Matt asking for a ride again Matt is several hours away this doesn't seem
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feasible one minute later 7 46 he talks to Bailey this for the last time he tells her that
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he is walking South and as you and I pointed out yesterday Captain that is not accurate so either he is fibbing to
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her doesn't want her to find him or he is lost already at this point just a short 16 to 26 minutes into his walk at
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7 49 he's seen walking past Domino's Pizza and Gehring heading towards Scottsbluff this is at the intersection
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of 10th Avenue and stable Club Road 7 51 PM last seen on video walking by himself at the intersection of Terry
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Boulevard and stable Club Road in Tarrytown this is the last confirmed sighting of chance
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8 45 p.m last time friends or family members spoke to him unclear whether he actually responded to any of them or
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whether they could just see that the texts were red 908 PM that is the strange text from Chance's phone to his
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aunt 9 to 9 15 PM approximately this is when the significant thunderstorm struck the
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area approximately 9 pm his phone pinged in the vicinity of Owl Road South of the
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western travel terminal convenience store the data comes from an arc that's the police's term an arc that is a
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couple miles long covering an area encompassing Scott's Bluff National Monument property and Gehring to West
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25th Street in Scottsbluff so a large area there and at approximately 9 15 p.m the phone shut off for whatever reason
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now it's worth noting that the timeline is longer than the amount of time necessary for chance to walk the
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distances he is believed to have traveled it would only take him about an hour to walk to the area of the wtt
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truck stop for example no one knows where he was or what he was doing in the two and a half hours
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between when he left and his last phone ping it sounds to me though captain that
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chance is probably only Vaguely Familiar with this area so if I'm the investigator on this case I have a
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couple questions I want to see who saw him at the golf course did anybody see this confrontation
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happen I don't think there's any other eyewitness other than Bailey that says chance was at the grandparents house and
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left from the grandparents house I don't believe there was any other family member that actually saw him there again
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like you said there's gaps in the timeline that's a big question for me another question why didn't Bailey try
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to contact him by phone after their last conversation at that point she would had some communication
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with his family why wouldn't you try to call his phone why don't you try to text
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well to be clear she did um it's just she never speaks to him again after that marker that we gave in
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the in the timeline yeah but I think her if you look at her phone records or maybe it was his phone records I don't
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think she actually tried to call him after it got dark and once the storm happened
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you think at at some point when they claim that they stop searching for him because the storm got so bad you think
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during that whole time that you're searching for him in the storm that you'd be trying to call his phone and
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and I I haven't seen the records of any phone calls being made after it got dark
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also you have the lake the river those have to come into play based off of his location also like you brought up this
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mysterious text was it just a butt dial or was there something more to it well and you bring
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up a good point here now you know remembering that Bailey told Chance's parents that they had stopped looking
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for him because there was this storm so one I think we want to take a look at the storm first so we have the U.S
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national weather service that issued a severe thunderstorm warnings for that night so we know this storm happened
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right that's not in question and we know that it was a pretty severe storm this given by the standard of the National
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Weather Service so they issued warnings for this storm and estimated winds up to
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60 mile an hour with penny-sized hail a flash flood warning was issued until 1am
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on July 7th remember he walks off according to Bailey story 720 to 7 30 on July 6th
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and sure enough there was a very significant storm that night right in the area where Chance's phone last
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pinged information we found shows that the Scots Bluff estimated that gust of wind
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were in the 70 mile per hour range so trees were downed and one entire outbuilding blew away the whole thing
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didn't last that long though so starting a roughly around 9pm and ending by 10 pm but the storm
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dropped more than an inch of rain in that short time period bayley said she figured that chance took shelter in a
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nearby bar or some kind of building and when she woke up the next morning and he
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still wasn't there this is when she knew it was really bad so being perfectly authentic here Captain I I had some some
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concerns about the statement of well we stopped looking for him because the storm was coming in that is just a
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poorly written sentence that made me super suspicious because I mean think about any situation where you're trying
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to locate someone or a lost dog or anything like that do you wouldn't the storm heightened your sentences and increase
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you wanting to find this person sooner even if it's in the course of the storm yeah that's where I think there'd
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be frantic text messages and frantic calls saying hey look whatever we were arguing about at this point doesn't
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matter tell us where you're at so we can come get you you know we can deal with this later and so reporting in in that
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way to me is it's just not it's just bad it's just bad work right there and the reason being is because the rest of the
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story seems to be that she's telling his parents at 11 PM hey we stopped looking
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for him because the storm was so bad so if the storm starts at 9 9 15 she's saying this at 11. so there's a good
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chance that they were still looking for him during the course of the early parts
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of that storm if not the entirety of it and it's also reasonable to believe if you're a Searcher or even one of us on
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the outside looking in to say yes it seems likely that he would have taken shelter somewhere once the
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storm rolled in and there that's going to hinder our chances of finding him and so of course we called off the search at
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some point so where where that Miss where that bad reporting in the beginning of my research really raised
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some red flags for me after reviewing the story in more detail I don't think so anymore I I don't
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really question the movements of of Bailey and her family according to what we're being told yeah if they actually
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searched and again we don't know that we don't know that 100 again I still question if
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you're making contact with this family why aren't you trying to make contact with him but also when we talk about
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missing person cases a lot of times it's okay well he was off and he was in this
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bad storm but like his friend says what his best friend says Matt Miller you know this guy's not an idiot you know
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Matt seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders she's saying look if something happened where
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um he died in that storm you're more likely to find the body Mother Nature is not going to dig a hole
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and then toss him into a grave if something happened to him you know where he got you know maybe a tree fell over
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and hit him or whatever you would find his body they have not been able to do that now I I do kind of disagree with
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Matt Miller and and Chance's mother as far as like you you don't know how you'd react I mean
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look 70 mile an hour winds that's tough and I don't know if anybody's been outside when it hails but that can be a
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rough situation too is it possible that you go to the banks of you know the lake or the
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banks of the river to try to find some kind of shelter you're swept into one of the lakes or Rivers I think as far as in
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if I was in charge of this investigation the river is pretty big obviously and there's some very deep parts
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I don't know if you could exhaust that theory but I think you could exhaust the theory of whether he went into that lake
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or not it's you know still a decent sized Lake but I think with the proper search teams you could
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get to the bottom of if he was in that lake or not well and that was some of the concern because we have the
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police that have even stated that in that much rain referring to the storm that occurred that night there is a
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possibility that people can slip into rushing streams and rivers and there was apparently a flash flood warning in that
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very area that night but I have read multiple online posts that the North Platte River in Nebraska is not Swift or
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dangerous but you know you have to wonder could chance have ended up in the river
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remember his phone did show that he was in the area of the North Platte right around the time that the storm hit what
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they're saying online is true it's not known as this raging River but it would have been higher than it ever was and it
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would probably be moving faster than it ever was at that time period we should also point out too that even though the
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official searches ended after about six days or so looking for chance that the searches conducted by volunteers and
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bayley and her family and Chance's family and friends those continued on and on for a good amount of time in fact
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it was just I believe the following weekend that they had about 30 to maybe 40 family members and friends that were
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out there looking in those same areas and in fact branching out into neighbor covering towns that may not have been
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searched previously and even across state lines into Torrington Wyoming which is interesting because that's
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basically where he says that he was heading right that night when he speaks with his friend Matt and these were
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pretty organized searches from my understanding we had people on Horseback people on foot and people on ATVs all
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out there looking and some of them were out there looking from sun up to sun down and unfortunately again in this
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situation they end up finding nothing and I mean nothing it's not it's not we didn't find chance it's we
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didn't find any sign of him well his personal belongings his phone nothing right and I think you'd agree with this
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statement and tell me if you do or or don't by there being a storm you also become more vulnerable at possibly
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getting into a vehicle that you normally wouldn't get into tell them Large Marge
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sent you that that is a concern too when you see the uh the thunder rolling in and the the the
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lightning starts hitting and even hail at some point you sing it Garth Brooks yeah you might be willing to get into a
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big rig that you wouldn't have before that that storm starts and who knows maybe by this point he feels like he's
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struck out with with friends trying to get a ride from them and he's desperate and he just wants to get to
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to Torrington or or he just wants to get anywhere out of that area uh or just in
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from the storm well yes he's reaching out to his family and friends for help but what he knows
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more than anybody knows well he says once his phone dies right he's reaching out to his friends for help right right
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there seems to be no indication that he reached out to a family in fact it seems
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like there's a chance that he may have ignored calls or texts from family on purpose after reaching out to Matt right
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um so now let's talk about Matt a little bit more here um what we have here captain in the weeks
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and months that passed after chance goes missing eventually Bailey's going to return to moorcroft she does start
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attending nursing school as planned or maybe delayed I'm a little confused on that timeline the house remember they
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had recently purchased a home right that was foreclosed on after some time Chance's friend Matt Miller who we've
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been discussing quite a bit he the two of them were going to start that job together on that Monday
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and chance goes missing now Matt's working three weeks on and one week off that's his schedule what he did was he
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took two returning to gearing to that area in his week off to search for his friend and then he
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ultimately started a Facebook page called let's start with chance that organized grassroot searches for chance
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over the period of several months these are all well executed searches using borrowed drone equipment and getting
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permission from even private landowners to search their properties again these may be properties that were previously
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unsearched again no trace of chance has ever been found and I felt like I'm constantly
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defending Bailey on this but a lot of people online have have given her Flack because she hasn't done a lot
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of interviews and and now two years later when news agencies and uh and journalists and maybe even podcasters
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reach out to her she's not doing any interviews what her claims are is that her family has received some threats
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um based off some of the interviews that she has done and so she doesn't want to
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put her family through that but also it could just be that people misunderstand or or take your statements
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and in whatever Direction they want to I would just go back with the lead investigator when he says she was
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interviewed everybody in her family was interviewed and they were all cooperative and he said that their
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properties were searched as well yeah and I'm glad that you point that out because sometimes when people duck media
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they duck the newspapers or podcasts they're they're thrown into a bad light of well they must be guilty of something
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because they don't want to they don't have to tell their story too many times because they might get tripped up on
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something we can only go with what the experts say and and Captain you're exactly right the expert here is this
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investigator eats and this is a direct quote she meaning Bailey she's always been very Cooperative with me very
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cordial interviewed her at length my first interview with her was probably a couple hours long so she's always been
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very Cooperative end quote Yeah she she made a claim about saying that she was cleared and other
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people were cleared that's that's actually not accurate um maybe law enforcement told them hey
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you guys aren't suspects at this time who knows but until they find them they're not going
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to clear anybody and that's just right that's just this the smart thing to do well and there's no need to clear
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anybody because there's no indication of Foul Play as pointed out by law enforcement and then you have the flip
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side of that coin that they go on to very quickly point out that there's no evidence that there wasn't Foul Play So
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a very uh a very mysterious situation here now what we have that I wanted to get into here Captain is an update we we
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had an update so we mentioned the the Facebook page that was put together and about four months after Chase vanished
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his family issued a pretty lengthy statement on the Facebook page I'm not going to go
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through all of it it's still available online for people to read again it's about four months after he went missing
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the reason why I'm not going to go into all of it is because a lot of it is repetitive of things we've already
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covered within this case but I do want to address some of the issues that they addressed in their their statement and
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this is interesting to me because it seems to address some of the rumors that were going on at the time so about
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halfway through their posts it says there are two different video surveillance type recordings of chance
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walking that his family again these are all their words that his family and they
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are specific here his mother father brothers and wife so all five of them are fairly confident
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that this is Chase he is upright walking with purpose and determination and the five of them say the same thing that he
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does not appear to be drunk or in any way impaired now again as Captain pointed out that is certainly Up For
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Debate yeah we will agree to disagree they go on to address another issue here the phone did Ping near the wtt truck
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stop in Scottsbluff which means that it was within Tower range of an arced area they're using that same terminology that
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the police was using during this specific time this fits the timeline and description of what was
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stated above this does not mean and they they want to be very clear here in this
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statement this does not mean that he was actually ever at the truck stop they go on to address the cement
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rumor saying the cement yes this was poured the weak chance went missing this is not a new development Chance's family
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was aware and this has been investigated fully to their satisfaction again we pointed out that it sounds like what the
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police were saying that this was debunked pretty early on in the investigation cement was poured
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a family friend or somebody that knows Bailey's Family so of course the rumor was well he must
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be under there and they poured the cement to cover it up it appears that everyone agrees that that is not what
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happened and that they are satisfied with that result they go on to address the cell phone now
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this is not Chance's cell phone this is an interesting little rumor here that was going on it says the cell phone
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left on chances and Bailey's porch at their home in moorcroft that's what they're addressing they say this cell
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phone belonged to a homeless guy it was fully investigated by the DCI while yes Matt was in route another good friend of
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chances who is also a neighbor went and picked it up so that nothing happened to
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the phone and it could be turned over to the police so I guess some random phone
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was found on their porch and this phone was collected by somebody and turned over to police they have figured out no
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this is not Chance's phone well just like Bailey's family has been pretty Cooperative with the police it seems
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like chance chances family has been equally as Cooperative with the police yeah and I've heard his mom say that you
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know she'll call frequently asking for updates in the case as will other family members of chances but in this statement
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they do say some nice things about police and their statement reads law enforcement everywhere including in
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gearing is overworked and underpaid we believe they have done the best they could with what they had there are
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things that everyone questions such as where is County state and federal agencies why haven't they done more or
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XYZ to be honest no one knows for certain what has or hasn't been done because this is an open ongoing
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investigation and they can't tell us everything but that doesn't mean we can't continue to search and spread the
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word until chance is brought home foreign [Music] [Music] all right we are back you have filthy animals and if you're
00:25:34
nasty make sure you subscribe to off the Record cheers to you Colonel cheers to you and Mr Nasty
00:25:42
this is about the same time that the family releases their statement we get a press release from the Gering Police
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Department they did a media release of their own and again they're reiterating most of
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what we have already covered the most important portion of their statement was in regard to the cell
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tower information so I'll read that portion and this is verbatim here it says there was a lot of information
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floating around that Chance's phone last pinged at wtt in Scottsbluff this information is not correct Chance's
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phone last communicated with a tower near Riverview golf course just west of Scottsbluff because of cell phone
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technology the information did not greatly narrow down the area chance may have last used his cell phone the last
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time Chance's phone was used was shortly after 9 pm on July 6 2019 in an area two
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to three miles south to south east of that Tower I like that portion of the statement because it's very specific
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even though it still leaves a wide range of space where he could have been two to
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three miles it goes on to say that starting July 8th the gearing police department and several other agencies
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and volunteers conducted searches in the areas that cell phone information showed
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chances phone was pinged so searching a very large area they mention all of the resources and equipment used in the
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searches and state that as of November 27 2019 no evidence or traces of Chase Engelbert have been discovered the
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release also states that they have been able to follow up on dozens of tips and information that have come in so lots of
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tips are coming in they're letting us know they've followed up on them investigators have also followed up on
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dozens of potential sightings of chance and numerous States including Colorado Wyoming South Dakota Nebraska Iowa
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Kansas Texas and Missouri the law enforcement agencies in the jurisdictions where the potential
00:27:53
sightings were reported have assisted in looking at video and other requests made
00:27:59
of them them thus far none of the potential sightings have resulted in any useful information that will bring us
00:28:06
closer to finding out what happened to chance so at least they are receiving some tips especially at that point in
00:28:14
the timeline within the first four months that he was missing and as stated these are multiple States across this
00:28:20
great country and they're contacting those jurisdictions the jurisdictions have been cooperative and did their
00:28:27
investigation and unfortunately they're not finding chance either like I said I I like the demeanor of the lead
00:28:33
investigator Brian Brian Eads which I believe he actually worked for the FBI at some point but he was saying that
00:28:40
during this investigation that they've had times that they have have used the FBI as a resource and um different FBI
00:28:50
agents from different states and basically when he goes through the list during his interview
00:28:56
he mentions I don't know five or six different agencies that they've worked with I I do want to put out that that uh
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you know Bailey has kind of said that look the they didn't take this serious from the
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beginning and and maybe that would have changed some things but look a lot of these departments are
00:29:18
underfunded and this is July 4th weekend there is a lot of calls I think it's like the the most domestic violence
00:29:27
calls are normally over the July 4th weekend that's because I'm out in the streets raising hell just beating
00:29:33
everybody no but here's the thing when when that is said by Bailey I want to counter that with the fact that she
00:29:43
didn't call to report him missing until the following morning yeah so she can question how they reacted once they
00:29:51
received the information at 11 A.M on Sunday but keep in mind that's news to them at
00:29:57
11 A.M on Sunday when according to her he went he went a walk-in at 7 30 p.m on Saturday
00:30:05
they don't have much communication or she doesn't have much communication with him after about 20 or 30 minutes after
00:30:12
he's gone a bad storm comes in around 9pm they call off the dogs and quit looking for him at some point between 9
00:30:20
and 11 P.M and then they wait a full 12 hours to report it missing so I'm not trying to
00:30:26
point the finger but if you're going to say well they didn't take it super serious
00:30:31
from Jump Street well I don't think you and your family took it super serious from Jump Street either and I don't
00:30:37
really blame Bailey's family or the police department for not taking it super serious from Jump Street no I I
00:30:44
definitely don't blame him I I question why wasn't there more urgency because of
00:30:50
the severity of this storm right and I I hope that it's not a situation of Bailey and her family saying you know
00:31:00
what well he's he's a real jerk and he stormed out of here and he said some things to us or me that I didn't like
00:31:06
and if he wants to stand out there in the freezing rain well so be it you know I hope that that's not the situation I
00:31:13
hope that they did continue to look for him and at some point decided you know what he probably took shelter somewhere
00:31:18
we cannot make him answer his phone and we have to go home at some point I I sincerely hope that that's the situation
00:31:27
I do want to make sure too as we're going through some of these posts in these media statements and releases from
00:31:33
the gearing Police Department you know we kind of hitting some of the highlights if you will of their
00:31:39
statements rather than rehashing everything that we've covered so far they do end these statements with
00:31:45
reminding the public that this is an open ongoing investigation they're still looking for chance they're not going to
00:31:51
press any charges should they find him he's not done anything wrong but also the reminder that if you believe you
00:31:57
have seen him or if for some reason you believe you know what has happened to him that you should call the gearing
00:32:04
police department at 308-436-5089 we will have that phone number in the show notes for today's and
00:32:14
yesterday's show and they also say that you could contact the gearing Police Department via Facebook so there's
00:32:21
there's your ways to pass along any information and you know captain and I always say the same thing don't sit
00:32:29
around and wonder if what you have is is good information or bad information give
00:32:34
it to them let them decide if you think you saw something or if you heard a rumor some trucker picked up a cowboy
00:32:40
somewhere and the area of gearing in July of of 2019 and something went down past that information along to the
00:32:50
appropriate people there are even with the the difficulties that were going on with Bailey's Family and Chance's family
00:32:57
there are people there that are hurting and they're hurting bad and there there's a son that is missing his father
00:33:03
and there is a wife that is missing the answers of what happened to to her husband well I'm glad you brightened
00:33:12
that up because one of the things with the Eads one of the things he said that and I find this very telling
00:33:20
they have multiple stories of a robbery going wrong multiple stories now they have they have
00:33:27
no evidence for or against these are tips that have come in and what's interesting about this captain and I
00:33:34
know you're going to get to it but what's interesting to me about this is multiple stories coming in that yes they
00:33:40
have some different details within those stories but there's a lot of similarities too and it's you tell it
00:33:46
because you tell it better anyway no I I think I think you will but uh I just have I reviewed some some pretty short
00:33:52
information that Eads had stated we've received those tips we're looking into it because there are similarities in
00:33:59
some of these tips that have come in Yeah so basically you know maybe the the set of people in the rumor is the same
00:34:07
but the details are different on how it went down and this would be a robbery gone wrong I guess right right that
00:34:16
someone or someone's attempted to Rob this man chance who was seen walking alone yeah and it seems as if the way
00:34:25
Eads of saying it is that we've been able to contact and interview and investigate these leads all from the
00:34:33
perimeter where it's always well yeah I heard that rumor from so and so and and then they
00:34:39
track down the so-and-so and then they go well I heard that rumor from this other person and they haven't really
00:34:45
been able to find or investigate and do interviews and and possibly polygraph test the
00:34:56
actual individuals of the story if that makes any sense I know that sounds a little fuzzy well I love fuzzy and I
00:35:03
love the captain and so what I'm thinking that that means what that says to me Captain is that there is some kind
00:35:08
of breadcrumb Trail just either they're missing the first few breadcrumbs to to pick up the trail or they're missing the
00:35:15
last few in the series so there's something it's not a complete picture for them to fully investigate and and
00:35:23
figure out exactly if these tips are in fact extremely valuable to their investigation
00:35:30
I want to discuss the different theories we we touched on this earlier and asked
00:35:36
you to think about the possibilities of what could have happened to the chance as we went through his life his Social
00:35:42
Circles and the events leading up to his disappearance and even some of the actions and behaviors after he went
00:35:50
missing so let's Circle back and revisit each one of these now that we all have a
00:35:56
good amount of knowledge on the case and a complete picture of the story or as much as one can gather
00:36:03
so the first possibility first Theory here would be some type of misadventure Theory right as the gearing police chief
00:36:12
pointed out in one of his posts his media releases the last ping from Chance's cell almost perfectly aligned
00:36:19
with the arrival of the intense storm could chance have died in an accident caused by the elements I think this to
00:36:27
me raises some big questions because it it seems a little too much of a coincidence that roughly the same time
00:36:36
that this terrible storm comes in his phone it is no longer working it seems to line up too too much for me
00:36:46
it's a little too much on the nose in this situation to go much further past that to say that this is not a
00:36:54
possibility you have to consider the storm to be a strong possibility here in my opinion so that would lead you to
00:37:02
things like drowning in the river right if chance was walking near the river in the dark in the rain
00:37:09
could he have lost his footing and fallen in and drowned in the rushing waters this would explain the abrupt
00:37:15
shut off of his phone perhaps his body has not been found because it's wedged somewhere
00:37:21
the counter argument to this though would be that chance was an avid swimmer and an incredibly experienced
00:37:28
Outdoorsman and an athlete he was very familiar with hazardous weather and what not to do
00:37:35
and the North Platte River in Nebraska is not exactly the Mississippi but as the captain pointed out that night it
00:37:42
could be raging it could be faster flowing than normal if chance drowned I do think though that
00:37:49
we would have found him by now just because we've reviewed this in other cases and it always seems to me that the
00:37:55
body surfaces at some point or somebody finds them at some point and it's been a
00:38:01
long time it's been a long time since I left you with a dope beat to step two yeah look like I said before and I'll
00:38:07
say it again I don't know if you could exhaust all options on finding out what happened to him if he fell into the
00:38:14
river or something happened with the river because of the size but I think you could do that with the lake and I
00:38:20
think that's where I would exhaust options there so I could at least rule it out if we're talking about
00:38:27
misadventure the other thing to consider is hypothermia you know it's a possibility and the police expressed
00:38:32
some concern about this in their investigation in their statements now that would mean that chance became
00:38:39
soaked in the storm and his body temperature dropped to a dangerous level again it's not really clear how familiar
00:38:45
chance was with this area I'm guessing kind of vaguely but the direction he was heading in
00:38:52
based off of the phone information is toward the national park so totally unsettled and vast could he have died
00:39:00
somewhere and he just has simply not been found you know we have Philip krasik the ultra marathoner in
00:39:08
California just this past summer died under a tree and wasn't found by Searchers who later were saying that
00:39:15
they had been within 300 feet of him the whole time looking for him now remember that gibberish text that he
00:39:23
sent to his aunt at 908 could he have been disoriented already at this time and he's he's trying to
00:39:31
convey that to his aunt I I call into question that like my counter argument to that portion is is a is a couple of
00:39:40
things one this was July so it only got down to 56 or 57 degrees that night so would that have been cold
00:39:49
enough for this situation to be profitable and maybe possibly with the 70 mile hour winds the other thing too
00:39:57
is with him being disoriented with that text I lean toward toward two different thoughts with that text either Dawn is
00:40:07
correct and somebody else had his phone or this may have been some kind of butt dial or pocket text that was sent that
00:40:17
really has no significance to the case at all other than we know his phone was still on and active at that time yeah
00:40:23
and I say that because if we are going to when when exploring this possibility we're saying that there's it's possible
00:40:33
that the storm disoriented chance in some form or fashion this text is at 908. the storm comes in shortly after 9
00:40:42
00 PM right would this have been enough time for him to it's almost like you have to become disoriented immediately
00:40:47
like within a matter of just a couple of minutes which I don't think somebody in
00:40:53
his physical I don't know that he would have become disoriented that quickly unless uh unless he was already
00:41:00
disoriented because he was intoxicated yeah I know it's an open investigation but God damn it I want some information
00:41:08
maybe it's not going to help solve the case but I want it for myself there's speculation online that they didn't even
00:41:14
go golfing that this golf trip never happened so well that would be a bit of a red
00:41:20
flag that's definitely a red flag so if I'm an investigator I'm going I want to make sure that happened and then on top
00:41:26
of that if you have his credit card information and you're saying that everybody in the family and everybody in
00:41:33
Bailey's Family is being cooperative with you I want their bank statements I want to know how many drinks were bought
00:41:40
I respect his best friend Matt Miller but Matt Miller was possibly intoxicated during that conversation I don't want to
00:41:50
take anybody's word for anything on that video footage I see a man that looks like he's trying to catch his
00:41:58
balance for making a 90 degree turn I I agree but we do have several people that
00:42:04
say that say they see it differently than than you and I and they do know him better than we do now I'm not saying
00:42:10
that we're wrong I agree with you I see somebody that doesn't appear to be totally sober but I don't think he looks
00:42:17
to be as drunk as Brian Shaffer did in his uh surveillance footage video but if I'm an investigator and they probably
00:42:24
know this information and obviously they don't have they don't have to share this
00:42:30
information with the public but if I'm the investigator that's why I want to get no did this golfing event happen
00:42:36
what was the argument really about uh did he actually argue with uh Bailey did anybody see him at the grandmother's
00:42:45
house and how much booze was in his system well in all all of that's too is very difficult and I can only speak to
00:42:53
my own experience so I don't know how everybody else is but I know with me alcohol can be a dangerous thing because
00:43:02
I my body does not always react the same way every single time there's been times
00:43:07
where I've had a couple drinks and I'm quite quite toasted and there's other times
00:43:12
where I can drink all day and night and feel like I'm pretty sober you know lightly buzzed so
00:43:19
but he's still toasted it's well you say that but I'm telling you my experience and I don't know that we I don't what
00:43:28
I'm getting at is I don't know that we could look at a list of what was consumed or purchased and know what was
00:43:34
consumed by who and what quantities affect people in certain ways of course if we're seeing a large amount of of
00:43:42
booze then we could make the assumption that that maybe he was messed up regardless of that though Captain we do
00:43:48
know from the surveillance footage that he was alive at those times later that that evening again you you are
00:43:55
absolutely right if the information we're being provided is incorrect about what was going on
00:44:02
before he walked away or went missing that brings up a whole different set of scenarios and a whole different bit of
00:44:11
problems for the people that are telling us that he was golfing and telling us that he rode back to the grandparents
00:44:18
house before walking off the other things we need to consider a possible suicide we know from too many
00:44:25
tragic cases there are many times when someone takes their own life and the family does not see it coming or they're
00:44:32
not found for a long period of time you're right one doesn't uh kill themself and then dig a hole and bury
00:44:39
themselves but we have reviewed cases of bodies being found where they're not found for several years later and it was
00:44:47
an obvious suicide that is later determined Foul Play is a possibility as pointed out by law enforcement and his
00:44:56
family his family seems to believe that this is the most likely scenario for the
00:45:00
most part for example Chance's grandmother said quote in my mind somebody has done something to him and
00:45:07
somebody knows what's been done to him and someone has hidden him very well and chances mom said she believes that
00:45:15
somebody did something to him and she believes someone else had his phone at some point or along that same lines of
00:45:23
Foul Play did he did Chance by some strange bad luck come in contact with the wrong person or persons who did
00:45:30
something nefarious to him for unknown reasons and it has been said that there is a significant contingent of people
00:45:38
who believe that Bailey's Family was responsible and that theory would go something like this Bailey and
00:45:46
chance were not getting along and their families also not getting along chance also lost his job and Bailey's Family
00:45:54
wasn't too happy about this there's some type of argument after Golf and when chance stalked off in a tantrum
00:46:03
walking away from his wife and baby maybe Bailey's male relatives went after him and took care of things
00:46:11
uh we should point out how strange or Preposterous this would seem to be as people have pointed out Bailey's Family
00:46:20
is a normal one not a bunch of criminals with records of violent histories but you know there is the possibility
00:46:26
that if they did find chance in the argument continued and ex and escalated when they you know they told him to man
00:46:34
up and get back to Bailey and his baby what if a fight breaks out and he's killed you know by accident or otherwise
00:46:41
but then that leads us to the situation of Bailey's relatives would have to have
00:46:45
disposed of his body returned home and then no one outside of the family is any of the wiser look I get a little pissed
00:46:54
off though you pour concrete and they go well when we looked into that we don't believe it has anything to
00:47:01
do with it well what you could do is just dig it up I'm sure there are some insurance claim that would well we I
00:47:08
mean we have his family and we have police that say we've debunked that theory that we've we have investigated
00:47:15
that theory and his family is saying we are satisfied with the results of that investigation and his family's the one
00:47:23
that's saying that we believe that Foul Play is responsible for him not coming home so I I don't know that we can say
00:47:31
that it wasn't dug up or that certain tests weren't conducted to confirm that there's no body or bones underneath that
00:47:38
right right that cement so that that very likely could have been done I mean you have the loudest voices for Foul
00:47:45
Play is his mother and his family and they're the ones that saying are saying that we're satisfied
00:47:52
with the result of that investigation we don't believe that to be a possibility any longer after the information we have
00:47:59
been told or seen or whatever we should point out though a counter argument to Bailey's Family being
00:48:06
responsible for his disappearance would be what would the motive be right other than anger in this argument
00:48:15
because there's no life insurance policy he was chance was the sole Breadwinner The Sole Provider for his family so his
00:48:25
wife and son need him alive yeah well think about this we get an argument because we want you to move to this
00:48:31
state so you can make more money to benefit your family uh you don't like that idea so then we kill you because
00:48:39
that obviously would benefit your family but I think you have that reversed where
00:48:46
they were living the minimum wage wasn't the same as where they were visiting and what Bailey
00:48:52
is saying by the standards where we live he's making good money that's why she's
00:48:58
saying that she believes that he misunderstood a comment or something that was said to him we want you to do
00:49:04
the best you can for your family right that was their point and then he was mad about it
00:49:11
so so then they kill him like that the motive doesn't make a lot of sense there but again I think if if I'm the
00:49:19
investigator I'm I'm looking into the actual golf outing did it actually happen did the argument actually happen
00:49:26
what was the art argument actually about uh now I know that there's been multiple
00:49:33
polygraph tests done in this case it's just not clear on who those were for and it it seems to me the way it's implied
00:49:42
is that Bailey has never taken one right and again there's all kinds of problems
00:49:48
with with polygraph tests and results another possibility that we wanted to explore today too Captain was maybe he
00:49:55
took off maybe he wanted to start a new life somewhere that theory is often discussed in
00:50:01
missing persons cases the theory that he deliberately left and is living his life
00:50:06
somewhere else in the vast majority of cases we dismiss this Theory and for good reason there's just nothing to back
00:50:13
it up in most cases and it also seems unlikely given the circumstances again in most cases but I will say here in
00:50:23
this case I see it a little differently I see a situation in Chance's case that it might be more of a possibility than
00:50:32
it would be in most cases because it's pretty clear from everything that I've reviewed that there's there's some drama
00:50:37
in this young man's life his family and Bailey's Family they're not getting along they're not very friendly with
00:50:44
each other when he disappeared Bailey didn't call his parents until the neighbor calls her so she's
00:50:54
not getting along with his parents and then we have Dawn his mother's own words to Matt saying well we'll try to reach
00:51:01
out to him but we don't think he'll want to talk to us even though he needs something even
00:51:06
though he is in the he needs something he needs a ride he needs some help he needs someone to pick him up and bring
00:51:12
him home we don't think he'll talk to us so there's something going on in that relationship I get it you know maybe
00:51:19
between the stress of new wife new baby new house new job just lost my old job that I thought maybe would be my career
00:51:27
I don't really get along with my family and if I stick around and try to love my
00:51:32
son and raise my son I'm going to constantly have to deal with her and her family
00:51:38
from what I've reviewed Captain there's not been his disappearance hasn't brought these two families closer it
00:51:44
doesn't sound like grandparents on on Chance's side have seen much of their grandson Banks since he went missing
00:51:52
which is sad because the the babies the banks is father went missing it takes a village anyways and now this baby
00:52:02
doesn't have his father don't don't keep um his family from this child they they
00:52:09
love this child they want to help uh raise this child they want to see this child do good in the world
00:52:15
but I'm going to defend Bailey for a second because we don't know what has been said to her or the actions that
00:52:22
have been done to her since this and if you feel like what I'm saying is don't use the kid as a pawn
00:52:29
um but at the same time like if these people were making threats or you have uh you fear for your safety for some
00:52:36
reason or fear for your child's safety then then I I understand why you want to keep your distance and to be clear it is
00:52:44
all perspective right I'm just simply saying in this situation I see a higher probability for reasons
00:52:53
that chance might go off and start a new life then I have seen in other cases that we have reviewed and I say that
00:53:00
here just because again it comes down to perspective we don't know what his perspective was on his life and his
00:53:07
relationships at that time but from the outside looking in you know it's pretty easy to walk away when you don't feel
00:53:15
like you're walking away from much of anything at all and so I think that there's a higher
00:53:20
probability for that in this case than would be in most cases now the counter argument to that would be
00:53:29
his words to his friend when he calls Matt Miller he has a plan he says I'm walking to this destination 35 miles
00:53:38
north of me closer to my home 35 miles closer to my home I need a ride for someone to come pick me up and take me
00:53:46
to my home that seems to be a clear thought out well who knows how well thought out but at least the plan for
00:53:56
chance that night he didn't call Matt saying F everybody I'm out of here no he said I need to get back home and we know
00:54:04
that he did not get back home we know that nobody successfully picked him up if they did nobody's talking about it
00:54:11
and there's no surveillance footage of it or no witnesses to it so it seems to me like for him to have gone off and
00:54:19
started a new life elsewhere and to walk away from his old life something had to
00:54:24
change inside of chance after that 7 46 p.m phone call that night to Matt Miller
00:54:31
if that doesn't change then he should have ended up back home and that means something bad happened to him after that
00:54:38
call obviously there's no conclusion in this case at this time but uh what are your final thoughts this
00:54:46
case reminds me quite a bit of the Tyler Davis case episodes 296 and 297 on your true crime
00:54:54
garage dial in that case Tyler was out with his wife and a friend and something happened some kind of argument
00:55:02
took place and he decided he was going to go for a walk and never came back and we have no trace of Tyler and no one
00:55:11
knows what happened to him and here we have a very similar situation or from what we're being told
00:55:17
chance gets into some kind of argument I believe he was arguing with more than just his brother-in-law
00:55:23
I believe that he was probably arguing with most of Bailey's family that was at the golf course I believe he was arguing
00:55:29
quite a bit with Bailey during that 20-minute car ride back to the grandparents house and he goes off
00:55:34
walking because he's upset he's angry he feels like he's been mistreated and it doesn't
00:55:41
sound to me like he was going to go and just walk it off he was going to go home
00:55:45
he was going to go back to his home now what was going to take place in it after
00:55:49
that in his mind no one knows I cannot say that but the thing that I cannot get past
00:55:57
is I feel like the timing of the storm and the last contact with chance is not a coincidence
00:56:05
as unlikely as it seems something must have happened to chance in the elements and his body is just not where
00:56:11
authorities have expected it to be who knows how accurate the cell phone information is we've seen them waffle on
00:56:18
that a little bit or how lost and disoriented Chase could have become during his travels that night or if his
00:56:25
phone died and he actually traveled miles from where he was last believed to have been
00:56:32
I think there's just a big mystery here captain and I I wish Chance's family and
00:56:38
Bailey's family nothing but the best and nothing but good luck in this situation
00:56:44
and their continued search for chance we've seen Brandon Lawson uh believe that that we may have some some answers
00:56:54
finally in his case so you can hold out hope I think that it looks a little Bleak obviously given
00:57:01
that he's been gone for so long but maybe they'll get their answers and hopefully they get them soon
00:57:08
we're ready [Music] thank you so much for joining us here in the garage Colonel do we have any
00:57:25
recommended reading this week we are very happy to be recommending The Escape of Jack the Ripper the truth about the
00:57:31
cover-up and his flight from Justice by Jonathan Haynesworth and Christine Ward Aegis look everybody's always wondered
00:57:39
for over a hundred years now who is Jack the Ripper and these wonderful authors are here to tell you that he was young
00:57:46
handsome highly educated in the best English schools a respected professional and even a first-class amateur athlete
00:57:53
read this book they are going to tell you who Jack the Ripper was this is called The Escape of Jack the Ripper the
00:57:59
truth about the cover-up and his flight from Justice you can find that great title and many more recommendations on
00:58:06
our recommended page at truecrimegarage.com much love to you all thanks so much for the support we would
00:58:12
be nothing without you until next week be good be kind and don't let her [Music]
00:58:28
[Applause] [Music]