URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape
- Jul 23, 2026
- 1:41:13
- Full Episode
The War everyone assumed was over may be about to become something far worse than we could have expected. Professor Robert Pape explains exactly why the deadliest phase of this war is still ahead, and how this could trigger a wave of terror across the world.
Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. A renowned political scientist, he has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of the upcoming book “Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism”.
He explains: ■ Why the US bombing campaign failed to topple Iran’s regime, even after killing its top leaders ■ How Iran seized control of 20% of the world’s oil supply within days of the war starting ■ Why the failed agreement handed Iran a path to becoming the most powerful country in the region ■ Why both China and Russia gain from America staying stuck in the Middle East ■ Why he thinks US ground troops could be next ■ Why he thinks there will be a clash between Congress and the president over who really controls the power to go to war
00:00:00 Intro 00:02:42 Why Robert Pape Isn't Surprised 00:04:24 Why the US Blocked the Strait of Hormuz 00:05:43 The Secret JD Vance Peace Deal (MOU) 00:08:33 Iran as Regional Hegemon, Explained 00:10:00 How Do We Know This Is the Real Document? 00:21:25 Did the War Actually Make Iran Stronger? 00:22:26 The Viral Tweet: How Is Iran Still Hitting US Bases? 00:24:57 Trump Says Iran Is Destroyed — So How? 00:25:59 Where Iran Hides Its Drones ("A Truck in California") 00:29:24 Iran Is Building New Drones the Whole Time 00:32:37 Are We on the Verge of a Global Economic Crisis? 00:36:47 What "Owning the L" Would Actually Look Like 00:38:57 Trump: The US Runs Out of Oil in 4 Weeks 00:40:52 The Midterm Elections Time Bomb 00:52:33 The Vietnam Parallel: LBJ's Trap 00:55:26 Can the US Force the Strait of Hormuz Open? 01:03:27 A 70% Chance of Boots on the Ground in Iran 01:14:59 Why Invading (Not Bombing) Sparks Suicide Attacks 01:24:25 When the Two Crises Collide: A New 1960s? 01:25:21 Will Trump Lose the Midterms? 01:27:00 Is the US Running Out of Weapons? 01:29:00 What Is Trump's Real Objective? 01:34:39 Pape's Prediction for the Next Few Months
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Brief Summary
Robert Pap discusses Iran's strengthened position, U.S. military options, and the looming global economic crisis amid escalating tensions.
Key points
- The Dilemma of Hormuz. The control of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical issue for global oil supply.
- The Regional Hegemon. Iran's ambitions to become the dominant power in the Middle East are clear.
- Iran's Control Over Hormuz. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased its power.
- The Drone Threat. The difficulty of eliminating Iran's drone and missile capabilities is highlighted.
- Impending Oil Crisis. Trump warns of running out of oil reserves in four weeks due to the crisis.
- The Midterm Elections Looming. With the midterm elections in three months, Trump's approval ratings are critical for Congress.
Episode highlights
- The Dilemma of HormuzThe control of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical issue for global oil supply.“How do you get Iran to give up control of Hormuz?”5:16Jul 23, 2026
- The Regional HegemonIran's ambitions to become the dominant power in the Middle East are clear.“Iran wants to be the dominant state in the region.”20:02Jul 23, 2026
- Iran's Control Over HormuzIran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased its power.“Without a doubt, Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started.”21:41Jul 23, 2026
- The Drone ThreatThe difficulty of eliminating Iran's drone and missile capabilities is highlighted.“It's like trying to find a truck in California.”27:40Jul 23, 2026
- Impending Oil CrisisTrump warns of running out of oil reserves in four weeks due to the crisis.“We run out of reserves at about 4 weeks.”39:21Jul 23, 2026
- The Midterm Elections LoomingWith the midterm elections in three months, Trump's approval ratings are critical for Congress.“He needs to make sure Americans are happy in three months' time.”41:22Jul 23, 2026
- Historical ParallelsThe conversation draws parallels between Trump's decisions and those of Lyndon Johnson during Vietnam.“It's so tragic that we're essentially replaying the Vietnam War.”54:37Jul 23, 2026
- MAGA's Support for the WarA significant majority of MAGA supporters back the military conflict with Iran, contrasting with the general public's opposition.“77% to 85% of MAGA support the war.”1:01:59Jul 23, 2026





