00:00:00
These are the richest people on earth
00:00:01
and they're so manifestly unhappy. They
00:00:04
just can't shut the [ __ ] up. And what
00:00:06
tiny, petty, angry, unhappy people, they
00:00:10
all are. Every single one of them.
00:00:17
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:19
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast
00:00:21
Network. I'm Cara Swisser.
00:00:22
>> And I'm Scott Galloway. Ted Turner, the
00:00:24
media mogul CNN founder who helped
00:00:26
create the 24-hour news cycles, died at
00:00:28
87. Turner was also a major
00:00:31
philanthropist, making a record 1
00:00:32
billion in donation to establish the
00:00:34
United Nations Foundation. He was a
00:00:36
different kind of billionaire, although
00:00:38
he was also the it was called the mouth
00:00:39
of the south. Um, beyond media and
00:00:42
philanthropy, Turner pursued countless
00:00:44
other passions from his Montana Grill,
00:00:46
his eco-con, this is a eco-conscious
00:00:48
restaurant chain, being named yachtsman
00:00:50
of the year multiple times. He was Larry
00:00:52
Ellison before Larry Ellison. Uh he
00:00:54
announced he had Louis body dementia,
00:00:56
progressive brain disorder. In 2018,
00:00:59
Jane Fonda, one of Turner's ex-wives who
00:01:01
remained a close friend, remembered him
00:01:03
saying, "Men like Ted aren't supposed to
00:01:04
express need and vulnerability. That was
00:01:07
Ted's greatest strength, I believe." And
00:01:09
he was. And she I recently interviewed
00:01:11
her and she had told me he was quite
00:01:12
ill. Um I I talked to him a little bit
00:01:15
for my books, Lenol. He was real mad
00:01:17
about the sale and everything else. um
00:01:20
except that when he sold the company, he
00:01:23
had that famous quote where where he
00:01:26
said um this deal was better than sex.
00:01:28
Do you remember that? He was he always
00:01:30
had something kooky to say
00:01:32
>> at any one moment. And I you know a lot
00:01:34
of people are like oh he's the reason we
00:01:36
have terrible cable. His vision of cable
00:01:38
was not this what has happened. So I I
00:01:41
sort of push back against that because
00:01:43
his idea was that you can get news to to
00:01:46
sort of democratize the news a little
00:01:48
more from the big three. And so I
00:01:50
consider him a real important his legacy
00:01:53
very important even though even though
00:01:54
it sort of you know morphed into this
00:01:57
screamfest that it has become. But his
00:01:59
was was you know was it was real news
00:02:02
and and I was happened to be with
00:02:04
Cristian Almanpor who got there pretty
00:02:05
early not right away at the beginning
00:02:07
and she had nothing but great things to
00:02:09
say about his tenure when he was sort of
00:02:11
do real entrepreneurial news news and
00:02:15
other things you know and a very a very
00:02:18
generous and charitable person at the
00:02:20
same time and also funny and weird and
00:02:22
interesting. Your thoughts?
00:02:25
Yeah, this guy is, you know, he kind of
00:02:27
defined the term that you don't hear
00:02:28
anymore, a captain of industry. And the
00:02:31
term captain, he was the something
00:02:34
people don't know about him is, I think
00:02:36
he may be the only billionaire who was
00:02:38
also an elite worldass athlete. He won
00:02:41
the America's Cup.
00:02:42
>> Yeah, he did.
00:02:43
>> And there are just aren't very many
00:02:45
billionaires who've reached the pinnacle
00:02:46
of a sport. And
00:02:49
um maybe Roger Stalach, is he a
00:02:52
billionaire now? Anyways, but he built
00:02:54
CNN from nothing. It's really
00:02:56
interesting how it emerged. So news when
00:02:59
we were growing up was a public service
00:03:01
and that is ABC and CBS sold a [ __ ] ton
00:03:05
of ads from Tang and Chevrolet running
00:03:08
against All in the Family and MASH and
00:03:10
the Partridge Family and the Brady Bunch
00:03:12
and they felt that it was a public
00:03:14
service to have 23 minutes of news and 7
00:03:17
minutes of commercial in this money
00:03:18
losing thing called the local news. and
00:03:20
he said he correctly figured out that
00:03:24
there was money in a market for 24 by7
00:03:28
news and it was very scrappy. If you
00:03:30
look go back it wasn't very well
00:03:31
produced and he he started the whole
00:03:34
thing. Now where it came off the tracks
00:03:37
was quite frankly with Rubert Murdoch
00:03:39
recognizing that the part of the news
00:03:42
they made an observation and that is
00:03:45
KABC news back in the 70s had something
00:03:47
called point counterpoint and SNL used
00:03:50
to mock it you know Jane ignorance
00:03:52
>> ignorance law that's our show pretty
00:03:53
much but go ahead
00:03:54
>> anyways so
00:03:57
um uh so they recognized something
00:04:00
called point counterpoint and it was
00:04:02
Bruce Hersen and Jim them tunny and they
00:04:05
would start yelling at each other and
00:04:08
someone did the analysis is and found
00:04:10
out that's what people were tuning in
00:04:12
for.
00:04:13
>> Yeah, I know.
00:04:14
>> And that was really the key and arguably
00:04:17
the most dangerous insight that Rupert
00:04:20
Murdoch made.
00:04:21
>> And of course, no, this isn't about
00:04:24
balance. It's enough news to keep to
00:04:26
give to create a halo of legitimacy.
00:04:29
>> And quite frankly, CNN was guilty of it,
00:04:31
too. Crossfire.
00:04:33
>> Yeah. And CNN now has a show like that
00:04:35
where they all just start yelling at
00:04:36
each other.
00:04:38
>> That's where Tucker Carlson started.
00:04:39
>> Yeah. And
00:04:40
>> Michael Kinsley,
00:04:41
>> remember Tucker and Michael just going
00:04:43
at it?
00:04:44
>> Um and that seemed civil compared to
00:04:48
>> it is it actually when you watch it,
00:04:49
it's actually
00:04:50
>> it seems Patrician. It seems
00:04:52
>> it's intelligent. It's intelligent.
00:04:54
>> It is digressed and has become something
00:04:56
that is I don't know. It's a longer talk
00:04:58
show. Let's get back to Ted Turner. He
00:05:01
gave away a billion dollars. She
00:05:03
actually gave away a billion dollars to
00:05:04
the UN. I would argue in the UN actually
00:05:06
meant something. Uh something also
00:05:08
people constantly ask me for male role
00:05:10
models for kind of a positive or
00:05:12
aspirational form of masculinity. I
00:05:14
think Ted Turner is a great role model.
00:05:16
One, let's just go let's just go to the
00:05:18
male stuff.
00:05:19
>> Very aggressive. Also
00:05:22
>> politically incorrect. When Time Warner
00:05:26
When Time Warner was acquired
00:05:28
>> by CNN, Gerald Levvin introduced the
00:05:31
whole thing and said, "And now I want to
00:05:32
introduce my best friend, Ted Turner."
00:05:34
And Ted stood up and said, "Best friend?
00:05:36
I've never been to your [ __ ] house."
00:05:38
>> Yeah, it was good.
00:05:38
>> And then my favorite was when he did an
00:05:41
all hands and it was Ash Wednesday and
00:05:42
there were a bunch of people in the
00:05:43
audience with ashes on their forehead.
00:05:45
He's like, "Shouldn't you be working at
00:05:46
Fox?"
00:05:49
>> The guy was
00:05:49
>> It was funny. I think there's a certain
00:05:51
charm in a world now where everything is
00:05:54
so I don't know
00:05:56
>> it's he was a different time period. He
00:05:57
wasn't malevolent
00:05:58
>> but he was he was charitable. He was
00:06:00
visionary. He was aggressive. 14
00:06:03
grandchildren 14 or 12 grandchildren
00:06:06
>> married to Jane F. She still loves him.
00:06:08
She told me she was she
00:06:09
>> an environmentalist and also took his
00:06:12
seat and his privilege and his wealth as
00:06:16
an obligation to serve and connect
00:06:19
nations with each other. He was very
00:06:21
serious about uniting nations in trying
00:06:23
to promote world peace.
00:06:25
>> He saw his wealth and his seat as an
00:06:28
obligation that he was he was optimizing
00:06:31
for service not for attention.
00:06:34
>> Yeah. He's a really
00:06:35
>> I would I urge people if they're blaming
00:06:38
what cable is now on him not to. It's
00:06:40
not what he that was not his vision. I
00:06:42
was around for that and it became that
00:06:44
and it was not his. He he he may have
00:06:47
created the 24 and they did take
00:06:49
advantage. Remember the thing that
00:06:50
really sent them over the top was that
00:06:51
the girl down the well. Remember the
00:06:53
girl down the well story?
00:06:55
>> Oh yeah. Wow.
00:06:56
>> That's what that's that's what Cristian
00:06:57
was. She's like, "Oh, that's the thing
00:06:59
that really got people watching
00:07:01
>> that in the Iraq war."
00:07:02
>> Yeah. And but you saw moments of that
00:07:06
where remember the stud Arthur was
00:07:08
Arthur Kent like it started to turn it
00:07:12
that's when you started to sort of see
00:07:13
the beginnings of kind of the circus
00:07:16
acts of these cable stations and I was
00:07:18
thinking that as I was you know I went
00:07:20
on Sky News and BBC and stuff like that
00:07:22
and like the constant haunt and I think
00:07:25
it's a very serious I'm worried about
00:07:26
Honda virus but the the the constant
00:07:29
let's go back to the cruise ship let's
00:07:31
go back to the and I was like This
00:07:32
actually we're in a war in Iran. I feel
00:07:34
like perhaps we need to head over there
00:07:37
and take a look at what's had the
00:07:38
cruising going on in the straight of her
00:07:40
moose. But it he is a he has a great
00:07:42
legacy.
00:07:43
>> Bernard Shaw.
00:07:44
>> Bernard Shaw.
00:07:45
>> Daniel Shore.
00:07:47
>> Oh my dad's favorite for the wrong
00:07:48
reasons. Bobby Batista. Oh yeah, Bobby.
00:07:52
>> Well, that was great. It was great. It
00:07:54
was
00:07:54
>> I grew up on CNN.
00:07:55
>> Yeah. and Christine.
00:07:56
>> And also, I genuinely believe a decent
00:08:00
administration
00:08:01
would be CNN anchors.
00:08:03
>> Dana Bash should be president. She is
00:08:05
smart. She's elegant. And she could
00:08:06
smother you in your sleep. She's got
00:08:08
that edge to her, which every president
00:08:09
needs
00:08:10
>> if you crossed her.
00:08:12
>> Yeah.
00:08:12
>> Uh uh Anderson should be vice president.
00:08:15
Any problems with the pope, he just goes
00:08:17
over there and just talks about grief.
00:08:18
Everybody loves him. Competent enough.
00:08:20
>> Okay.
00:08:21
>> Fred Zakaria, Secretary of State. Hands
00:08:23
down. Hands down. All right.
00:08:26
>> Uh Michael Mirkish. He could be uh
00:08:28
secretary of commerce or labor.
00:08:31
That tell me that tell me that cabinet.
00:08:33
>> Will I get anything? I'm a contributor.
00:08:35
Do I get like an ambassadorship to
00:08:36
something?
00:08:37
>> Oh, you're ambassador to Guyana. We've
00:08:39
already decided this here.
00:08:40
>> Okay, we're going to we're going to move
00:08:41
on because you're saving me for myself
00:08:42
there.
00:08:43
>> I'm saving you from yourself because
00:08:44
it's interesting. I don't think Ted
00:08:45
Turner he didn't like the AOL Time
00:08:47
Warner deal that I did speak to him
00:08:49
about. First he was like it was better
00:08:50
than sex. The deal was the best thing I
00:08:52
ever did. Better than sex. And then
00:08:54
afterwards he like totally publicly
00:08:56
decrieded it publicly. And one thing
00:08:59
that um Barry Diller I think told him
00:09:02
was like if you sell your house and they
00:09:04
wreck they wreck the patio you need to
00:09:06
shut up. You sold the house. And I I I
00:09:08
didn't necessarily agree with him on
00:09:09
that but it was he definitely had much
00:09:12
regrets and he probably wouldn't be
00:09:13
thrilled where from the latest numbers
00:09:15
from Warner Brothers Discovery the
00:09:17
company reported a net loss of 2.9
00:09:20
billion in the latest quarter. That's
00:09:21
essentially a 2.8 8 billion termination
00:09:24
fee tied to the Netflix deal. Paramount
00:09:27
agreed to cover the cost, but the
00:09:28
expense still sits on Warner's books
00:09:30
until the deal officially closes. For
00:09:32
people that don't see why that was that
00:09:34
big of a loss, nonetheless, the first
00:09:35
quarter revenue was down 1%
00:09:37
year-over-year, and ad revenue slid 7%.
00:09:39
Total streaming revenue did rise 9%.
00:09:42
Largely by HBO Max went international.
00:09:46
Um, Paramount had slightly better news
00:09:48
to report, beating revenue and earnings
00:09:49
expectations in the first quarter.
00:09:51
Paramount added uh 700,000 subscribers
00:09:53
during the quarter, helping streaming
00:09:54
revenue grow by 17% year-over-year. The
00:09:57
company's film studio did well with
00:09:59
revenue up 11%. Um, and they said
00:10:02
they're making great progress on the
00:10:03
Warner Brothers deal with late Q3
00:10:05
closing still on track. There's still
00:10:07
some push back to it. Um, at the same
00:10:10
time, I'm going to add one more
00:10:11
earnings. Disney's under the first new
00:10:13
CEO Josh Dearo. The numbers were strong
00:10:15
with revenue climbing 7% to 25 uh
00:10:19
billion. Operating income across
00:10:20
Disney's entertainment sports and
00:10:22
experiences division beat expectations.
00:10:24
The company says it expects earnings per
00:10:25
share to grow 12%. That's solid in the
00:10:28
fiscal year and one weak spot. Um a dip
00:10:30
in attendance at its US theme parks
00:10:32
probably due to fewer international
00:10:34
proers. They're going to see
00:10:35
repercussions from gas prices, I'm
00:10:37
guessing, and other prices, but it's
00:10:40
only down 1%. Maybe the next quarter is
00:10:42
where you're going to see it over the
00:10:43
summer. that will be the real indicator
00:10:45
there. Um thoughts on on the Warner and
00:10:48
everything. They're just sort of bumping
00:10:50
along these companies.
00:10:51
>> So Warner Brothers 117 adjusted gap
00:10:55
versus estimates of 9 cents which is
00:10:58
actually pretty good. They had a 45%
00:11:01
beat. Operating margin was down but or
00:11:03
mostly flat. The linear networks
00:11:05
continue to bleed. The revenue fell 8%
00:11:09
uh with domestic pay TV subscribers down
00:11:11
10% and free cash flow was 476 million
00:11:14
in net leverage sits at 3.4x. Uh the
00:11:18
paramount deal is expected to close Q3
00:11:20
which will form a company with 69
00:11:23
billion in proformer revenue. Like if
00:11:25
there's a book, if you wrote a book
00:11:27
called the worst acquisitions in
00:11:28
history, you could just call the book
00:11:30
Time Warner is every they are at the
00:11:33
center of the
00:11:34
>> I mean three of the five worst
00:11:36
acquisitions in history all involve Time
00:11:37
Warner. It's
00:11:38
>> AT&T.
00:11:39
>> It's just AOL,
00:11:41
>> right? And this one I think will go down
00:11:43
as in terms of shareholder uh value
00:11:45
destruction. Um, Paramount posted a
00:11:48
clean beat and streaming turned its
00:11:51
first real profit. Revenue of 7 uh.35
00:11:55
billion versus 7.28. EPS of 23 cents
00:11:58
versus 15 cents expected. I mean,
00:12:00
companies are just, it's just
00:12:01
incredible. Companies are just blowing
00:12:02
away their earnings. Their direct to
00:12:04
consumer revenue was up 11%. Paramount
00:12:07
Plus revenue up 17%. I wonder how much
00:12:09
of that is landman. They added 700,000
00:12:12
net subscribers to reach um 79.6 6
00:12:16
million um in total. Direct to consumer
00:12:19
IBIDA improved to 251 million. Uh TV
00:12:22
media revenue fell 6% to 3.7 billion as
00:12:25
cord cutting continues. And Paramount is
00:12:28
nearly doubled its film slate for 2026
00:12:30
versus 2025 since closing the Sky Dance
00:12:33
deal last August, which to their credit
00:12:34
>> has been promising that.
00:12:36
>> Yeah. Everyone's been saying, "Oh,
00:12:37
they're going to gut Hollywood and
00:12:38
they're coming out swinging and they're
00:12:40
doubling their film slate."
00:12:41
>> The thing is, is it going to make money,
00:12:42
right? That's the issue. Let's see what
00:12:44
happens.
00:12:46
So, let's just wait until they
00:12:48
>> you can you can spend the money. I mean,
00:12:50
that's what rich people do, but let's
00:12:51
see if they make it. If they have some
00:12:53
hits, if they have some hits.
00:12:54
>> And so, Josh Dear's first earning
00:12:55
coliseio reported a a really strong
00:12:58
beat. Shares gained roughly 7% after the
00:13:00
report. But here's the thing,
00:13:04
100% of this beat, the credit goes to
00:13:09
Bob Iger.
00:13:11
you someone doesn't impact earnings two
00:13:15
weeks after they take the CEO job. This
00:13:17
beat was really ringing the bell for for
00:13:20
Bob Iger. Revenue at 25.2 billion versus
00:13:24
24.8 expected. Earnings at buck 57
00:13:26
versus 149 expected. Streaming operating
00:13:29
income jumped 88% to 582
00:13:34
uh uh uh million dollars. And Disney's
00:13:37
streaming margins broke into the double
00:13:40
digits. at almost 11%. Their streaming
00:13:42
revenue hit 5 a.5 billion up 13% driven
00:13:45
by price hikes and Disney's no Disney no
00:13:48
longer reports subscriber numbers which
00:13:51
is a shame but um their experiences that
00:13:54
you referenced uh was up 7% which must
00:13:58
be an increase in prices because as you
00:14:00
mentioned um numbers are down
00:14:02
>> attendance is down
00:14:04
>> and they also have raised their buyback
00:14:06
target similar to what Apple did last
00:14:07
week and guided for I think Disney I
00:14:10
think Disney is a is a buy and tomorrow
00:14:14
is you know he came out of the the parks
00:14:17
um in which grew nearly 40% in revenue
00:14:20
under his watch and he called Disney
00:14:23
plus the digital centerpiece of the
00:14:24
company on Wednesday's earnings he
00:14:26
flagged fuel and consumer spending Dana
00:14:28
Walden who I know you know named
00:14:30
president chief creative officer and
00:14:33
>> that was an important keep for th that
00:14:35
company the keeping her because she was
00:14:36
a CEO she was the top contender
00:14:38
>> not only that they're all I mean quite
00:14:40
frankly
00:14:41
A lot of these people are probably
00:14:44
I mean this is the challenge when your
00:14:46
stock is below where it was 10 years
00:14:47
ago. You have to get the most talented
00:14:50
people in the room and say I'm going to
00:14:51
issue new options and please stick
00:14:53
around because you got to think a lot of
00:14:55
these people are looking at
00:14:57
>> except what is their option?
00:15:00
>> Yeah, because
00:15:00
>> producers that's harder now. You can't
00:15:02
be as good a you can't do those sweet
00:15:05
sweet deals anymore. Yeah, but if you're
00:15:06
a Disney, if you're a talented Disney
00:15:08
executive,
00:15:09
>> you could absolutely land, you know,
00:15:12
>> I would stay. See, now I would stay
00:15:14
because you have power.
00:15:15
>> I agree. And
00:15:18
>> pieces of that, you know, pieces of wood
00:15:20
floating. I don't know. I just would say
00:15:22
>> Oh, that's interesting. I hadn't thought
00:15:23
of that analogy. I like that. Um,
00:15:24
>> it was from the Devil War product, but
00:15:26
go ahead.
00:15:27
>> I thought it was from the Titanic, isn't
00:15:28
it?
00:15:28
>> It is, but it was She just said that.
00:15:30
She goes, "We just got on the list."
00:15:31
>> I was wondering how long it was going to
00:15:32
be before you mentioned the Devil. It's
00:15:34
killing it. Still killing it.
00:15:35
>> Yeah. No, it's great. Let's go over
00:15:37
every movie that's actually making
00:15:38
money. Um,
00:15:39
>> it is making money.
00:15:40
>> Yeah, it's it's making a ton. It's it's
00:15:42
it's going to change the world to see
00:15:43
it.
00:15:43
>> Lawrence of Arabia meets The Sound of
00:15:45
Music meets the
00:15:47
>> Let's move along.
00:15:48
>> But Disney stock is down more than 10%
00:15:51
year to date despite back-to-back
00:15:53
earnings beats. I don't know if it's
00:15:55
because everyone's giving up on
00:15:57
traditional media or because AI is
00:15:59
sucking all the oxygen out of every
00:16:01
other company of the other 490 in the
00:16:04
S&P. But I think Disney actually right
00:16:07
now is a really good buy and I wouldn't
00:16:09
be surprised if it's put in play in the
00:16:12
next 3 to 6 months either by
00:16:13
>> you keep saying that by whom to Apple to
00:16:16
because Apple was looking at perplexity
00:16:18
allegedly
00:16:18
>> uh an activist.
00:16:21
Oh,
00:16:21
>> an activist comes in and says, "You need
00:16:23
to cut 20% of your staff or you need to
00:16:24
put the company up for sale,
00:16:25
>> which they did with with Iger." I mean,
00:16:27
I went through that, right? Several
00:16:29
times, I think.
00:16:30
>> Yeah. But I had so much credibility he
00:16:32
was able to back this.
00:16:33
>> It's weak because this is a new CEO.
00:16:35
>> Disney has this unbelievable franchise
00:16:38
or it might be corporate restructuring.
00:16:40
Go good bank, bad bank, spin out the
00:16:42
parks into its own business. And
00:16:44
>> they decided not to, as you know, they
00:16:46
were going to get rid of ABC at one
00:16:47
point, then they decided to keep ESPN.
00:16:49
And I think that's one of tomorrow's
00:16:51
>> an activist will argue that their
00:16:54
decisions have been really poor because
00:16:56
this company has probably the greatest
00:16:58
collection of IP in the world, a booming
00:17:00
parks business, and yet the stock is
00:17:02
trading below where it was in 2016.
00:17:05
This is sort of I got to think there's a
00:17:07
lot of activist, the same old sort of
00:17:08
unpleasant Ike per motor.
00:17:11
>> If I had to bet on any firm that shows
00:17:13
up forcefully at dignified, it would be
00:17:14
Elliot. Um, and by the way, I don't know
00:17:17
anything. I haven't talked to him about
00:17:18
this. The But I wouldn't be surprised.
00:17:21
Unfortunately, it'll probably be someone
00:17:23
like um Peltz, but he's more consumer. I
00:17:27
wouldn't put it past
00:17:28
>> Peltz was in the last one, I think, with
00:17:29
Parm Mutter.
00:17:30
>> I don't know. I think if Netflix stock
00:17:32
was was I don't I think Netflix and
00:17:35
Disney,
00:17:37
this merger the merger between Netflix
00:17:38
and Disney could never happen under an
00:17:40
administration that didn't have its that
00:17:42
didn't have a FDC or a DOJ that was in a
00:17:44
slumber. So if there was any desire to
00:17:47
do that, it would then now would be the
00:17:48
time. And if you had
00:17:49
>> No, except Brenda is not He doesn't like
00:17:52
Disney. It's in his It's in his sights.
00:17:55
>> Who doesn't like Disney?
00:17:56
>> Brendan Carr. Brenda. I call him Brenda.
00:17:59
>> Yeah, but Well,
00:18:00
>> he's specifically called out Disney like
00:18:03
by name, saying he doesn't like
00:18:04
>> Yeah, but he doesn't get to decide any
00:18:06
trust. It goes It's the I mean, I guess
00:18:09
could he lead it? The bottom line is
00:18:12
Disney and Netflix right now, Disney is
00:18:14
cheap right now. Netflix and Disney in a
00:18:17
windup would be game over. If you took
00:18:20
Netflix's IP, including Wednesday,
00:18:23
Stranger Things, Bridgetton, and used it
00:18:25
to go vertical and create experiences
00:18:28
and parks. I just think it'd be I just
00:18:30
think it'd be incredible. By the way, I
00:18:32
it shouldn't happen. It would be too
00:18:34
much concentration of media,
00:18:35
>> but from a I would buy shares in that
00:18:37
company.
00:18:38
>> Yeah, absolutely. I don't think it'll
00:18:39
happen. you probably
00:18:40
>> although I don't know why it shouldn't
00:18:42
because they have a lot of companies to
00:18:44
go up against these tech companies but I
00:18:46
don't know anyway well interesting to
00:18:47
see it was fine it was perfectly fine it
00:18:49
was like okay it's so funny you know
00:18:52
when Ted Turner when that deal happened
00:18:54
I mean media that was the top for media
00:18:56
wasn't it like when AOL alltime Warner
00:18:59
happened I think it was like they were
00:19:01
running the [ __ ] show they were the
00:19:02
kings of the road and then they weren't
00:19:05
like it's been a downward downward
00:19:07
downward slide for traditional media The
00:19:10
fall of traditional media for me is
00:19:13
embodied by when I first moved to New
00:19:15
York in 2000 and like all single people
00:19:20
in their 30s, we would pile eight people
00:19:22
into a house in Bridgeampton
00:19:26
and every weekend was a mad scramble to
00:19:29
see who we knew at Condast
00:19:32
who knew what magazine was throwing the
00:19:35
most fabulous party in the Hamptons and
00:19:39
And whether it was details or Vogue and
00:19:43
the job the masters of the universe were
00:19:46
these was the creatives and the business
00:19:48
people working at condonas magazines in
00:19:50
the magazine.
00:19:51
>> That's true. And in the journalism
00:19:53
business I have to tell you I was like
00:19:55
the internet person and they like
00:19:56
treated me like [ __ ] Like they were
00:19:59
like oh you're part of the internet
00:20:01
>> you know and you're no the no it was
00:20:03
Ponzi scheme. It was Ponzi scheme. Oh,
00:20:05
it's not going to it's going to it's all
00:20:06
a bunch of it's going to go away. And
00:20:08
the media reporters was such snot bags.
00:20:11
I have to tell you, they just were. And
00:20:14
I was like, I don't I think you're in
00:20:15
trouble. I was And they were like, you
00:20:17
don't know. They're going to run the
00:20:19
show and media media media. And I was
00:20:21
like, I think there's got some
00:20:22
vulnerabilities there. But they I I'll
00:20:24
never It was the same thing. It was sort
00:20:26
of it was well, too bad. That's what
00:20:28
happened. Anyway, um let's go on a quick
00:20:31
break. We come back. Anthropic gets into
00:20:34
bed with Elon and SpaceX. Lock that
00:20:37
metaphor. Support for this show comes
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00:21:40
Scott, we're back. Anthropic CEO Daario
00:21:43
Amodi says the company planned for 10x
00:21:45
growth this year but is now seeing
00:21:47
growth closer to 80x creating a massive
00:21:49
need for more computing power. Enter
00:21:51
SpaceX or rather SpaceX AI. SpaceX
00:21:54
acquired XAI back in February. But Elon
00:21:56
Musk has just revealed XAI will be
00:21:59
dissolved and its AI products will be
00:22:00
part of the Space X AI brand of course
00:22:03
because everybody left and he he didn't
00:22:05
it didn't get quite the traction that he
00:22:07
had hoped. So he's as I said folding it
00:22:09
right in. Everything's going to get
00:22:10
folded. Tesla's next. Under the New
00:22:12
Deal, Anthropic will get compute power
00:22:14
with uh SpaceX AI data center in
00:22:16
Memphis, the one that's polluting people
00:22:18
as it works to keep up with surging
00:22:20
demand. Everybody needs power. A real
00:22:23
turnaround for Elon, who earlier called
00:22:24
anthropic evil. He's now saying he was
00:22:27
impressed after meeting with senior
00:22:29
executives, adding, "No one set off my
00:22:31
evil detector."
00:22:33
Again, look in the [ __ ] mirror, dude.
00:22:35
Um, so is this the enemy? My enemy is my
00:22:38
friend because of chat GPT. This is an
00:22:41
interesting thing. I mean, obviously
00:22:42
Lince has not had the success he had
00:22:44
he'd hoped to dominate and it's all
00:22:47
about his beef with Sam Alman, but in
00:22:49
this case, he's this is what he's doing.
00:22:51
I would I would be careful if I was
00:22:53
Daario in general, but um I I think he's
00:22:57
savvy enough to deal with Elon, though.
00:22:58
Um and he seems to have enough push
00:23:00
back. Um any thoughts on this?
00:23:03
>> Uh I'd rather talk about me and the
00:23:05
reminisce a little bit longer. Is that
00:23:06
okay?
00:23:07
just for a second.
00:23:09
>> So I started
00:23:10
>> Okay. But I want thoughts on this.
00:23:12
>> In 2000, I had said I'm moving to New
00:23:15
York from San Francisco. I had just been
00:23:18
abused, roden, ridden hard, and put away
00:23:21
wet by Sequoia Capital. Kicked off the
00:23:23
board of the kicked out of the band I
00:23:25
started, kicked off of the board of the
00:23:26
company I started. Just like got divor
00:23:29
just like I I just wanted I wanted to
00:23:31
never go back to San Francisco the rest
00:23:33
of my life. And I moved to New York.
00:23:34
>> Can I ask you a question? Did you
00:23:35
deserve it? Just a little bit. Did I
00:23:36
deserve
00:23:37
>> what happened? What happened with
00:23:38
Sequoia? I'm just asking. I'm just
00:23:40
curious.
00:23:40
>> Oh, I I I was an obnoxious, aggressive
00:23:43
entrepreneur that was arrogant and
00:23:45
reckless,
00:23:46
>> but also Mike Morates is a small
00:23:48
vindictive man.
00:23:49
>> Okay. Got it.
00:23:50
>> Um, so, uh, so yeah, I I don't I think
00:23:53
there's enough blame to go around for
00:23:54
everyone.
00:23:54
>> Okay.
00:23:55
>> And also, the board was a bunch of a
00:23:57
bunch of obsequious people getting
00:23:59
Anyways,
00:24:00
>> um,
00:24:01
>> I'm still not triggered. I'm clearly
00:24:03
over it. I'm clearly over it.
00:24:06
All of you are still to this day.
00:24:08
>> I'm clearly over it. Anyways, I moved
00:24:10
back to New York and I started an
00:24:12
e-commerce incubator backed by Goldman,
00:24:15
JP Morgan, Maverron, Howard, How Howard
00:24:18
Schultz's company. And it was near
00:24:21
impossible to recruit
00:24:24
people to come to work for a technology
00:24:25
incubator. And I would take people out
00:24:27
who were working at traditional media
00:24:29
who were making5 or $600,000 a year. And
00:24:32
I'd say, "I can only pay you 200, but
00:24:33
I'm going to give you 2 million options
00:24:35
on 2 million shares." And I would have
00:24:37
to walk them through what options were.
00:24:41
>> That the ecosystem. I couldn't even use
00:24:44
a New York-based law firm because they
00:24:46
didn't do venture. People don't realize
00:24:48
New York in 2000 was about finance. It
00:24:51
was about media.
00:24:53
There was no, you know, what the
00:24:54
>> There were a couple There were a couple
00:24:56
little ones.
00:24:56
>> Guilt.
00:24:57
>> I mean, there was a guilt and there was
00:24:59
something.
00:24:59
>> Yeah. Guilt. I forgot about
00:25:01
>> there was guilt in that Kevin Ryan's
00:25:02
company and then there was
00:25:04
>> the one ad company that got sold to
00:25:07
there was no technology
00:25:09
>> there really wasn't whatsoever there was
00:25:11
one oh the one that bought was bought by
00:25:13
Yahoo Tumblr
00:25:16
Tumblr was in New York
00:25:17
>> Tumblr the worst acquisition in history
00:25:19
>> in history
00:25:20
>> the worst acquisition in history
00:25:22
>> I broke that story nice to meet you but
00:25:24
yeah
00:25:24
>> yeah within the same 60 days um uh uh
00:25:29
Mark Zuckerberg made the best
00:25:30
acquisition in history for a billion. He
00:25:32
bought Instagram. It's now worth I think
00:25:34
probably a half a trillion to a trillion
00:25:36
dollars.
00:25:36
>> And Marissa Mayor said,
00:25:38
>> "I'm a baller." And she bought Tumblr
00:25:40
for a billion dollars, which seven years
00:25:43
later got sold for how much?
00:25:45
>> A couple million dollars. It was a
00:25:47
collection of It was a collection of
00:25:49
blogs,
00:25:50
>> dirty sites, dirty bloss.
00:25:51
>> And then when they shut down the porn, I
00:25:53
I got into an online battle with what's
00:25:55
the guy with the bad Caesars's haircut?
00:25:57
I forget his name.
00:25:57
>> There were two or three. Union Square
00:25:59
Ventures. Anyways,
00:26:00
>> they they told Tumblr they were no
00:26:02
longer going to fund this bag of [ __ ]
00:26:04
that was making no money,
00:26:05
>> but he convinced Marissa Mayor to buy it
00:26:07
for $1.1 billion.
00:26:09
>> I know.
00:26:10
>> Anyways, uh
00:26:12
>> I'll walk down memory lane.
00:26:13
>> This has been fun. I've really enjoyed
00:26:15
this.
00:26:16
>> Okay. Um, and then I joined and then my
00:26:19
my incubator collapsed within like 6
00:26:21
months founding it after the dot
00:26:23
implosion and I joined the faculty at
00:26:26
NYU where my first year salary was
00:26:27
$12,000. Good times.
00:26:30
>> Good times.
00:26:31
>> Back to ex.
00:26:32
>> Anyways, back to anthropic. What do we
00:26:34
talk? I've said this. I wish I I have
00:26:36
never bet on a a predictions market. I I
00:26:39
said this a week ago. Khi had Musk
00:26:42
winning at 51 or 52%. Now it's all of a
00:26:46
sudden fallen to 38.
00:26:48
>> Winning at what? Winning
00:26:49
>> winning the case.
00:26:50
>> Oh, the case.
00:26:51
>> The must wins the case.
00:26:52
>> Yeah. Yeah. He's got to make some moves.
00:26:54
>> Going from there is no moves. He does
00:26:56
not have a legal egg to stand on. You
00:26:59
can go from a nonprofit to a for-profit.
00:27:01
You're allowed to do that. This is
00:27:03
regret and a messiah complex cosplaying
00:27:06
a legal argument.
00:27:09
Judges and courts aren't concerned or
00:27:12
aren't moved by anger and indignance and
00:27:14
by and sellers regret. They're moved by
00:27:17
evidence and argument. And there's none
00:27:19
here.
00:27:19
>> Though I will say this trial, I was
00:27:22
thinking, you know, you're watching the
00:27:23
texts go back and forth and Mirror
00:27:25
Morati doesn't like Sam really even
00:27:27
though she pretended she did. And the
00:27:30
girlfriend uh who was on the board, I'm
00:27:32
blanking on her name. I don't really
00:27:33
care cuz Siobhan Zillas. Um
00:27:36
>> isn't that his girlfriend? Well, it's
00:27:37
his partner and then they had four
00:27:39
children and she didn't manage to tell
00:27:41
the open eye people that she had two
00:27:43
children with him and obviously
00:27:46
>> that's not a conflict. Cara,
00:27:48
>> she's like a spy in there like right
00:27:51
spy like you might give that piece of
00:27:53
information if you're in a beef with
00:27:55
someone.
00:27:55
>> You're a fiduciary for all shareholders
00:27:57
making decisions around someone's
00:27:58
compensation and you're having their
00:27:59
children. That's just like she probably
00:28:01
just forgot to mention compensation.
00:28:03
Anyway, so the whole thing and they're
00:28:05
like going back and forth in this trial
00:28:06
and I thought this is a soap opera but
00:28:09
the most boring people, most awful
00:28:11
boring people in it. I'm like I could
00:28:14
give a [ __ ] that whether Mir Morotti
00:28:15
likes Sam Alman or not. I don't care. I
00:28:18
don't care. Like oh he was manipulative.
00:28:21
I don't care. Like what does that have
00:28:23
to do with anything? Like I you know
00:28:25
honestly I I force you know you hear
00:28:27
that of course about Sam being
00:28:28
manipulative and telling one person one
00:28:30
thing and another. And as I'm reading it
00:28:32
in the trial, I'm like, "So, what does
00:28:36
this is this illegal? Is he's just a
00:28:38
jerk or you didn't like him or he was
00:28:40
deceptive? Did he do anything illegal?"
00:28:41
Because otherwise, your internal
00:28:44
corporate hijinks. I don't, you know,
00:28:46
care. I do think she should have told
00:28:48
people she had his babies in my opinion.
00:28:50
But the whole thing is like a bad soap
00:28:52
opera that you want to like turn off
00:28:54
like and it's just bad for AI. It's bad
00:28:57
for the companies. And therefore, he's
00:28:58
going to do another deal like this.
00:29:00
That's where we That's why we're where
00:29:01
we are. He's trying to glum himself on
00:29:03
to a successful
00:29:05
>> Ron Wayne was one of the founders of
00:29:07
Apple.
00:29:09
>> He owned 10% of it. He sold his 10% for
00:29:12
$2,300
00:29:14
>> back to I think Jobs and Wnjak. That is
00:29:17
now worth $400 billion.
00:29:20
>> Yeah. He feels bad.
00:29:21
>> And guess what?
00:29:22
>> Mhm.
00:29:22
>> It sucks to be a grown-up. He signed the
00:29:25
legal documents. Private property. The
00:29:26
key to private property is when like
00:29:28
Elon Musk and my favorite defense is,
00:29:30
oh, he didn't read the fine print. He's
00:29:32
the wealthiest man in the world with the
00:29:33
most sophisticated legal team in
00:29:35
history, but oh, he didn't ruin the
00:29:37
fine. I would like to I I would just
00:29:39
love to see someone show up who sold the
00:29:42
guy who sold Tesla to Musk or the rights
00:29:44
to it, I forget his name, show up and
00:29:46
say, "Oh, I didn't realize it was going
00:29:47
to be worth this much and I didn't read
00:29:48
the fine print." Just to see how that
00:29:50
goes over in court.
00:29:50
>> Yeah. Instead, he's like baby daddy. I'm
00:29:52
like, come on. Like, stop it people. And
00:29:55
then the smart people, these are the
00:29:57
smartest people on our planet. They
00:29:59
sound like such idiots.
00:30:00
>> They're trying to make an emotional
00:30:02
argument that he's trying to that I
00:30:04
wanted it to be a nonprofit. And what
00:30:06
did I do? Go on to found a forprofit AI
00:30:09
company that arguably has less guard
00:30:11
rails than any other AI company.
00:30:14
>> A a jury of actual people.
00:30:17
>> I I think this is a great buy at 38%.
00:30:20
I'll take the other side of this. I
00:30:22
don't
00:30:22
>> Yeah. Yeah. Nobody likes these people. I
00:30:25
have to say Brockman came off of all
00:30:27
these sort of loathome people I'm
00:30:28
waiting for the Sam Alman testimony, but
00:30:31
of all the people so far, Greg Brockman
00:30:33
comes off the best and I'm not a
00:30:35
particular fan of his either like the
00:30:37
one that keeps notes of everything. So
00:30:39
some of the highlights of the testimony
00:30:41
emails from Zillis showing Mus suggested
00:30:42
opening I become part of Tesla
00:30:45
potentially as a BC Corp subsidiary. Mus
00:30:47
tried to recruit Sam Alman to join AI
00:30:51
the worldclass AI lab within Tesla even
00:30:53
offering him a board saying they didn't
00:30:55
had no interest Sam Alman and Greg
00:30:57
Brockman 2 days before the trial started
00:30:59
Musk tested Brockman asking if he was
00:31:01
interested in settling the case Musk
00:31:03
supposedly wanted full control of Open
00:31:06
AI in part to help him raise $80 billion
00:31:08
to colonize Mars and was using OpenAI
00:31:11
employees to do secret work for Tesla.
00:31:13
OpenI president said the mask lack of
00:31:15
understanding. Mrs. Brockman of AI was a
00:31:18
concern for the company. I that was
00:31:20
factual. I really when I heard that I'm
00:31:22
like I I get it. And OpenA's former CTO
00:31:25
Mera Moradi was a very nice person. She
00:31:27
testified saying she couldn't trust Sam
00:31:28
Waltman's words and saying he created
00:31:30
chaos. Mirror I like you but I don't
00:31:32
care. Like then leave. Leave. Leave.
00:31:36
>> None of this matters.
00:31:37
>> Nothing matters. Like none of it. It's
00:31:39
not who's a better person. It's not who
00:31:41
would be a better shepherd of AI. It's
00:31:44
contract law.
00:31:46
>> I know
00:31:46
>> when you sell an asset, it doesn't it
00:31:48
doesn't matter who the bigger [ __ ]
00:31:50
is, the seller or the buyer.
00:31:52
>> I know
00:31:52
>> he sold he gave up his ownership and
00:31:55
governance.
00:31:55
>> Baby daddy gave up his ownership.
00:31:57
>> It doesn't and the whole and media is
00:31:59
trying to turn this into who would be
00:32:01
better at running it. It doesn't [ __ ]
00:32:02
matter.
00:32:03
>> Don't follow when you sell an asset,
00:32:07
>> right? It doesn't matter who's the
00:32:08
better person or steward of the home you
00:32:10
sold.
00:32:11
>> It is instructive to look how sloppy it
00:32:14
is. And so that's I keep saying to
00:32:15
people, they're like, "Oh, the Masters
00:32:17
of the Universe." I'm like, "They're
00:32:18
kind of sloppy." Like Google, like
00:32:20
everybody in the beginning of Google,
00:32:21
they were all like [ __ ] each other.
00:32:24
Like it was like and it was a big mess
00:32:26
and it was chaos and they all hated each
00:32:28
other. They liked each other. I could
00:32:30
care less, right? That's the thing.
00:32:32
until professional management got in.
00:32:34
Microsoft early on was like this, like
00:32:36
kind of a mess. But who cares? But the
00:32:39
fact that it's coming out in court is is
00:32:42
just makes you realize how dumb and dumb
00:32:44
dumb dumb this trial is. Like how dumb
00:32:46
it is. It's about money. That's all it
00:32:49
is.
00:32:49
>> This is This is I sold something that
00:32:52
ended up being worth $850 billion.
00:32:54
>> You're right. You're That's exactly
00:32:56
right.
00:32:56
>> It's I'm the Messiah who's going to put
00:32:58
us on Mars. Who should control
00:33:00
autonomous in the US? should control
00:33:02
space. And oh, by the way, the the one
00:33:04
part of the technological revolution
00:33:06
that I don't control and I can't seem to
00:33:08
catch up in is is AI. And so 6 years
00:33:12
after I've decided, oh, I I need I
00:33:15
should own it. I need it back or I need
00:33:17
money back or I need to get in the way
00:33:19
of their progress so X AI can I mean
00:33:21
pretty soon it's going to be I don't
00:33:24
know. I had a conversation with Dario
00:33:25
Amade. I should own
00:33:28
>> Yeah. You know, he he I should own
00:33:30
anthropic.
00:33:31
>> It's ridiculous. These people 80 bill
00:33:33
$80 billion to colonize Mars. Guess
00:33:35
what, Elon? You have it. Spend it and
00:33:37
have a good time. Have at it. Good luck.
00:33:39
Bye. Take your children. Go. We're We're
00:33:42
thrilled for you. We're We're excited.
00:33:43
We'll write a a a poem for you like when
00:33:46
on your way out. It's so stupid. Mike
00:33:50
Tyson at the peak of his career
00:33:53
um fought Marvis Frasier and knocked him
00:33:56
out in the first 30 seconds. I think
00:33:58
legally Elon Musk is Marvis Frasier. I
00:34:02
just think the guy
00:34:04
>> I don't even know what you're talking
00:34:05
about.
00:34:05
>> It's a boxing analogy. I don't like
00:34:07
boxing because I don't like to see young
00:34:08
men beating each other up like that.
00:34:09
Neither do I.
00:34:10
>> But if you want to talk Oh my gosh.
00:34:12
Whenever the the the reels come on of
00:34:15
Mike Tyson's 10 greatest knockouts.
00:34:17
Jesus Christ. I met him at a restaurant.
00:34:20
>> Did you?
00:34:20
>> Yeah. He came up to me.
00:34:21
>> Talk to him crossways. I hope.
00:34:23
>> Oh my. I was so scared of the guy. I
00:34:24
just thought be nice to him.
00:34:26
>> Yeah.
00:34:26
>> That guy one of the most dominant
00:34:27
athletes of all time. Anyways,
00:34:30
this is this is this should and I
00:34:33
believe will be a first round [ __ ]
00:34:36
knockout. And all this drama and all the
00:34:37
media say, "Who would be better at open?
00:34:39
What happened? Who's none of them? Who's
00:34:41
[ __ ] none of them? Who's [ __ ]
00:34:43
who?" It's like when Iran and Iraq were
00:34:45
at war. I used to say, "I hope the
00:34:46
bullets win."
00:34:48
>> I I don't both
00:34:51
>> We don't care.
00:34:51
>> I went on CNN and they asked me,
00:34:54
>> "Who would be a better steward?" I'm
00:34:55
like, "It doesn't matter.
00:34:56
>> None of them.
00:34:57
>> It doesn't matter. None of them. This
00:34:58
shouldn't be."
00:34:58
>> The answer is none.
00:34:59
>> The answer is no. And it doesn't matter.
00:35:02
Private capital and private property
00:35:04
means it sucks to be a grown-up. And if
00:35:06
you sell your house, it ends up being
00:35:07
next to [ __ ] Mark Zuckerberg and
00:35:09
could be worth eight or 10 million right
00:35:10
now. Okay, it's done. You sold it, boss.
00:35:13
Let me make one final observation about
00:35:14
these people. These are the richest
00:35:16
people on earth and they're so
00:35:17
manifestly unhappy. They just can't shut
00:35:20
the [ __ ] up. They can't stop fighting.
00:35:23
They have so much money. None of them
00:35:25
are qualified to run be in charge of
00:35:28
AGI. None of them. They're This is what
00:35:30
this is showing. What tiny, petty,
00:35:33
angry, unhappy people. They all are.
00:35:36
Every single one of them. And you're
00:35:37
like, "Y'all, none of you deserve what
00:35:41
you've got here." So then none of you
00:35:42
has the dignity or character to to look
00:35:46
good. And meanwhile over to the left,
00:35:48
Dario Modi is like sucking up all the
00:35:50
attributes of goodness. I don't even
00:35:52
trust him and I like him. Like it
00:35:53
doesn't even matter these people.
00:35:55
Anyway,
00:35:55
>> we shouldn't have to trust these people.
00:35:57
We should be able to elect
00:35:58
representatives we can trust to do the
00:36:00
right thing and regulate these companies
00:36:01
>> and then we can fire them easily.
00:36:03
Anyway, let's go on a quick break. We
00:36:05
come back, we'll talk about managing a
00:36:07
stock portfolio via chat GPT. You'll
00:36:10
like this one, Scott.
00:36:12
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00:37:23
Scott, we're back with just one more
00:37:24
quick story. Over the past few months,
00:37:26
I'd love to know what you think of this.
00:37:27
A Wall Street Journal reporter asked
00:37:28
Chad GPT for investment advice to see if
00:37:30
AI could really realistically manage a
00:37:32
stock portfolio. It's actually makes
00:37:34
sense. There's uh speaking of of of
00:37:37
anthropic, they just did an interesting
00:37:39
deal where it would make decks and pitch
00:37:41
decks and things like that working. It's
00:37:44
called it's a company, I can't remember
00:37:45
the name, but it's interesting though.
00:37:47
Um, CHATPGT uh there's a lot of
00:37:50
interesting smaller AI companies being
00:37:52
made that actually sound useful. And so
00:37:53
this is what the reporter did. Chat GPT
00:37:56
generally identified market risk, but
00:37:58
also made simple math mistakes,
00:37:59
suggested questionable market timing
00:38:01
strategies and sometimes veered into
00:38:03
overly complex ideas like options
00:38:06
trading. The chatbot often told the user
00:38:08
what they seem to want to hear,
00:38:10
highlighting a bigger concern that AI
00:38:11
could sound confident and persuasive
00:38:13
even when its advice may be flawed or
00:38:15
risky. Sounds like a lot of brokers I
00:38:17
know. About 30% of everyday investors
00:38:20
report using AI for their portfolios. So
00:38:23
apparently not so good yet. Not and in
00:38:26
lots of really problematic ways that you
00:38:28
I mean with a person you're looking at
00:38:30
you sort of have a sense when they're
00:38:31
sort of trying to sell you something you
00:38:33
don't want. Um so it was curious. It's
00:38:36
just like with law or medical it's not
00:38:39
there. It's not there. And this
00:38:40
personalized investment advice is just
00:38:42
the latest wrinkle. I don't mind them
00:38:43
making, you know, decks, pitch decks and
00:38:46
things like that, but um huge risk for
00:38:49
lawsuits, I would assume, just the same
00:38:50
with legal or medical or anything else.
00:38:53
Any thoughts?
00:38:54
>> Well, I I think it was tempting to
00:38:56
believe in the '9s you could use
00:39:00
Lotus, you know, 123 to beat the market
00:39:04
by doing all sorts of
00:39:06
>> analysis and calculations and you might
00:39:08
have had an edge for a minute. But what
00:39:12
I would argue is that the the the
00:39:15
individual thinking they can use uh
00:39:18
Claude and I'm guilty of this. I've been
00:39:19
asking Claude like crazy using co-work
00:39:22
to come up with different options and
00:39:23
hedging strategies and to identify
00:39:25
stocks. I'm guilty of it. I I love the
00:39:27
markets. I like to gamble. It's my means
00:39:29
of gambling.
00:39:29
>> That's why I'm asking you this.
00:39:30
>> And I find it interesting what it says.
00:39:33
But here's the bottom line or what I
00:39:35
think. Ken Griffin will hire 2,000 PhDs
00:39:40
and he will weaponize them with AI and
00:39:42
they will outperform the market. But you
00:39:45
believing with your $20 a month claude
00:39:48
coowork weapon can compete against these
00:39:51
folks, you are showing up with a very
00:39:54
elegant squirt gun and they have a
00:39:55
[ __ ] howitzer. So this is what you
00:39:57
do. You invest in lowcost ETFs like
00:40:01
Vanguard and people who know and
00:40:03
understand technology can use, you know,
00:40:05
understand how to use AI. But this will
00:40:09
further this will further diminish or
00:40:12
create or widen the delta between
00:40:13
individual investors and institutional
00:40:16
because institutional investors will
00:40:17
have the capital.
00:40:19
The bottom line is every time you you
00:40:21
place a trade, you got to keep in mind
00:40:25
on the other side of that trade is
00:40:27
likely someone smarter than you that has
00:40:30
broader technology. So what you want to
00:40:32
do in my view, unless you I get a lot of
00:40:34
I get a lot of psychic income around
00:40:36
playing the market. So 30% of my net
00:40:38
worth you like I enjoy it,
00:40:41
>> you know, it it's fun for me.
00:40:42
Occasionally I have access to a deal
00:40:44
that other people don't have access to.
00:40:46
So fine. But the retail investor would
00:40:49
be better off finding lowcost ETFs where
00:40:51
the management team there is really
00:40:54
technically competent.
00:40:55
>> But the notion that's what I do that's
00:40:57
what I do. I just put it in exactly the
00:40:59
right way to do it.
00:40:59
>> I'm not interested in it. I know I could
00:41:01
do slightly better if I I'm a little
00:41:03
smarter than most people and have a
00:41:05
little more.
00:41:05
>> You're smarter. You're smarter in an
00:41:07
area that has nothing to do that that's
00:41:09
done. Be careful thinking that. No, what
00:41:12
I mean is I have some thoughts on on
00:41:14
some things that I pro I'm talking about
00:41:15
the average bear, but I'm I don't think
00:41:18
I'm smarter than you understand
00:41:19
technology.
00:41:20
>> That's right. So, I could be like I
00:41:22
wouldn't bet on this company. I would
00:41:23
bet on this company probably earlier
00:41:25
than other people, but I still wouldn't
00:41:27
win still.
00:41:28
>> The problem is people have emotions in
00:41:30
the market and you can't trust your
00:41:32
emotions in the market. So, when the
00:41:33
stock gets cut in half, your emotion is
00:41:34
to sell it because you can't take any
00:41:36
more pain and that's probably when you
00:41:37
should be buying more. And so
00:41:41
and then you and then you have you
00:41:43
literally have Ken Griffin out there
00:41:45
looking at all the trades and seeing
00:41:48
where emotion is spiking or irrationally
00:41:51
plummeting and then moving in in a
00:41:54
millionth of a second and then moving
00:41:56
out and and absorbing millions of
00:41:58
different data points. So, you do not
00:42:03
you do not want to play in traffic here
00:42:05
and believe that just because you you're
00:42:08
going to get up to the mound where a
00:42:09
guy's pitching 105 miles an hour because
00:42:12
you got a new aluminum bat that you
00:42:14
think is going to that you're going to
00:42:15
be able to hit a home run. No, you're
00:42:16
going to get beaned in the face. So, I
00:42:20
do think AI is going to be a huge
00:42:22
unlock. And also it will compress
00:42:24
margins because what will happen is
00:42:27
financial advisors unless they're really
00:42:29
good and can go upstream into tax
00:42:31
planning. A mediocre financial planner
00:42:34
at your local bank know you could
00:42:36
probably do almost as well using AI or
00:42:39
better and save 1% a year. I remember
00:42:42
when I my mom passed away and I was
00:42:43
looking at her estate. This guy was
00:42:46
charging her one or one and a half% of
00:42:48
her assets every year to put her in
00:42:51
eight S&P stocks. And I'm like, "Okay,
00:42:53
that's just not that hard. Why are we
00:42:55
paying you 1 and a.5%."
00:42:57
>> Right. Yeah. And
00:42:58
>> it was 1 and a.5%.
00:42:59
>> So, what I would say is I I think, by
00:43:01
the way, I think people should use AI to
00:43:04
try and pick stocks. I just don't think
00:43:06
they should buy them. I think it's
00:43:07
fascinating to see the logic to see what
00:43:09
it comes back with, to start asking it
00:43:11
more questions. I've been trying to
00:43:13
figure out option strategies, a strangle
00:43:15
strategy. I just I'm learning a lot.
00:43:17
>> Although sometimes you don't know if
00:43:18
it's accurate, right? That's the issue.
00:43:20
some of it they the sycopanticness is is
00:43:23
still a problem because it's not going
00:43:25
to challen it's not if you it's I think
00:43:27
someone was I think the article says
00:43:29
it's no more than having a smart
00:43:30
assistant right like they're no smarter
00:43:33
than anything else and and there's an
00:43:36
assistant part which doesn't want to
00:43:38
displease you and then it's just a smart
00:43:41
person but you're never going to have an
00:43:42
edge with AI
00:43:43
>> but you you can you can normalize for
00:43:46
that there's a a a co-work fe feature in
00:43:49
anthropic
00:43:51
where you ask this council of people.
00:43:53
One's a cynic, one's an optimist, one is
00:43:56
one is grounded in historical context,
00:43:59
the other is like an analytical
00:44:00
unemotional person. And all of these
00:44:03
quote unquote agents look at your
00:44:04
question and then they distill their
00:44:06
answers up to a quote unquote chairman
00:44:08
who distills it and gives you an answer
00:44:10
back. You can also I I I lead a lot of
00:44:14
prompts with give me the brutal truth
00:44:16
because I don't like, you know, I don't
00:44:18
like it. I hate it when it says to me.
00:44:19
Great question. The other thing you
00:44:21
should do is is and I can't do this
00:44:23
because I unsubscribed from chat GPT.
00:44:25
You can beta test the same do the exact
00:44:27
same prompt somewhere else.
00:44:29
>> Yeah, I did that before I quit and I was
00:44:31
on other things like show me a book
00:44:33
title, get show me a book cover. I got
00:44:36
to say Claude was hands down the best.
00:44:38
It just was. It just was so clearly
00:44:40
better. You know when you taste test
00:44:42
things you're like oh that tastes like
00:44:43
[ __ ] and that's good, right? Or the
00:44:45
coffee or something like that. But yeah,
00:44:47
you're right. But anyway, it's very
00:44:48
interesting. I mean, you should all try
00:44:49
it out to see what happens and do one of
00:44:52
those tests. But this was a great
00:44:53
article in the journal and I think it
00:44:55
showed that it just doesn't it's not as
00:44:57
ready for prime time as they say.
00:44:59
>> And about 30% a third of retail
00:45:01
investors are already using AI for their
00:45:03
portfolios. And so
00:45:06
>> everyone's looking for a shortcut,
00:45:07
Scott.
00:45:07
>> But this one of the greatest grips I
00:45:10
believe legal grips in corporate history
00:45:12
was the financial adviser
00:45:14
>> or or institutional investors. And by
00:45:17
the way, the majority of the grift has
00:45:20
happened amongst the richest. Rich
00:45:22
people like
00:45:22
>> they always have the handholders. Yeah.
00:45:24
>> Rich people like to believe that they
00:45:25
deserve something better. So they want
00:45:27
to get into these really high-profile,
00:45:29
well marketed hedge funds who they
00:45:31
believe, oh, I have access to Alson or I
00:45:35
have access to this, you know, DEA or
00:45:37
whatever. Okay, fine. Guess what? If you
00:45:40
added up all alternative investments and
00:45:42
hedge fund returns for the last 50
00:45:44
years, they have underperformed the S&P
00:45:47
by the amount of their fees. It's a a
00:45:50
and some outperform. Berkshire Hathway
00:45:52
has outperformed. My buddy at Anchorage
00:45:55
Capital has outperformed. You know, I
00:45:56
have another buddy at Mudra Capital
00:45:58
who's outperformed. But generally
00:45:59
speaking, over the long medium and long
00:46:02
term, they all underperform the market
00:46:05
by their fees. And every piece of data
00:46:09
analysis, if you go to the finance
00:46:10
department at a world-class university
00:46:13
and ask them where they invest, they're
00:46:15
like, "Vanguard."
00:46:16
>> Mhm. Me, too.
00:46:17
>> And they don't pick stocks. They don't
00:46:19
pick stocks.
00:46:20
>> I put I don't know. Someone's like, "How
00:46:22
are your stocks doing?" I'm like, "I
00:46:23
have no idea." And I I'm not going to
00:46:24
look until I need and I don't really
00:46:26
need the money. So, I just I'm like, "I
00:46:28
just put it there and then it goes
00:46:29
away." It's like it's like a bank at
00:46:31
Gringots. I don't care. Like I I the I
00:46:34
the more I think about it, the more
00:46:35
upset I get, right? Like what am I
00:46:38
missing? What did I get wrong? Did I buy
00:46:39
gold? Should I do this? And then I'm
00:46:41
like, why am I that [ __ ] person?
00:46:43
>> It's a great point because
00:46:45
>> in addition to the capital
00:46:47
you're investing, you want to talk about
00:46:49
the emotion you're investing.
00:46:51
>> And that is I do get psychic income, but
00:46:54
>> you like it. You like it.
00:46:55
>> I I started buying stocks when I was 13.
00:46:57
I worked at Morgan Stanley. I I find it
00:46:59
fascinating. I really do enjoy markets
00:47:02
and it's served me well. Having said
00:47:04
that, it also takes a real emotional
00:47:06
toll staring at your [ __ ] phone and
00:47:08
then when you buy a stock and you're
00:47:09
convinced you're a genius and it gets
00:47:11
cut by 40% in 2 weeks after you buy it,
00:47:14
you're really going to beat yourself up.
00:47:15
>> The only thing I wish you wouldn't do is
00:47:17
put so much of your your your medical
00:47:19
information into these people cuz they
00:47:21
don't it's they don't they're not bound
00:47:22
by HIPPA. Same thing with legal. I'm
00:47:24
like, please don't. I mean, unless you
00:47:27
find one of these ones that is bound by
00:47:29
the same law as everybody else is, I
00:47:31
just worry about that over time.
00:47:33
>> What's that? Wait, who's taking
00:47:34
>> No, I'm just saying when you whenever
00:47:35
you put a lot of your per you always
00:47:37
like, oh, I loaded up you sometimes you
00:47:39
don't even realize you're saying this to
00:47:39
me. I put away all my medical thing into
00:47:41
this and I was like really not sure I
00:47:44
trust these people to have all
00:47:45
>> I'm very promiscuous with my
00:47:47
information.
00:47:47
>> You are. I makes me worried. I'll be
00:47:49
honest with you. I think oh dear, no,
00:47:51
don't do that.
00:47:51
>> Cuz you think at some point they're
00:47:53
going to get all of it and weaponize it
00:47:54
against us. They're They're not I I They
00:47:56
could because they're not bound by
00:47:58
HIPPA. They're not bound by legal things
00:48:00
anyway.
00:48:00
>> I wonder if I should just send out
00:48:03
>> a preemptive apology to Angie Dickinson
00:48:06
and Emily Ratikowski right now.
00:48:08
>> Why?
00:48:08
>> Well, just all the things I've asked Ali
00:48:10
about.
00:48:11
>> Oh, no. Okay, we're moving on. We got to
00:48:12
go. All right, one more quick break.
00:48:15
We'll be back for predictions. Okay,
00:48:17
Scott, let's hear a prediction. Do you
00:48:19
have a prediction for us?
00:48:21
>> There was a really interesting story
00:48:22
this week that I think
00:48:24
kind of indicates or pretends portends
00:48:27
what might be in store for us around
00:48:30
um potential acquisitions. And I made a
00:48:32
similar prediction a few years ago, but
00:48:34
it didn't pan out. And that is a
00:48:36
32-year-old Tik Tocker just crowdfunded
00:48:39
132 million in non-binding pledges to
00:48:41
buy a bankrupt uh Spirit Airlines. Did
00:48:44
you see this?
00:48:45
>> No, I didn't see.
00:48:46
>> He said he said, "Look, Spirit helps
00:48:47
keep airline prices down. Let's do what
00:48:49
we did with the Green Bay Packers and
00:48:51
let's neutralize it." and he's very
00:48:54
talented and Spirit said it was gonna
00:48:57
shut down at 2 am on Saturday and this
00:48:59
guy Hunter Peterson
00:49:01
had a TikTok up the same day a website
00:49:04
by the next and 6 million views within
00:49:06
days and more than a get this car more
00:49:08
than 133,000 people have pledged on
00:49:10
average about a,000 bucks each totaling
00:49:14
uh $132 million
00:49:16
and essentially what he's saying is that
00:49:19
okay 20% of American adults paying the
00:49:22
average spirit fair of $30 to $40 equals
00:49:24
enough to buy an airline. and they say
00:49:27
it's unl okay listen it's unlikely to
00:49:29
close but the idea with in an era of AI
00:49:33
and compliance AI where you could spin
00:49:35
up the legal documents and have people
00:49:37
sign them and with PayPal I think you're
00:49:40
going to see
00:49:42
in the next 12 to 36 months someone
00:49:45
pulled this off where they say hey who
00:49:49
wants to buy
00:49:51
Estee Lauder or who wants to buy you
00:49:54
know it'll start with a small stock it
00:49:56
wouldn't Estee Lauder because that's too
00:49:57
big a company. But it'll start with a
00:49:59
small company that goes out of business.
00:50:01
They'll say, "Okay, Dick Sporting,
00:50:02
whatever it is, and someone talented
00:50:05
who's very charismatic, who will
00:50:06
weaponize social media and AI to collect
00:50:09
legal pledges for funds and will buy
00:50:12
something. I think crowdfunding I think
00:50:14
crowdfunding is going to
00:50:17
um is going to is going to happen." and
00:50:20
and also retail participation in US
00:50:22
equities has risen by nearly 20% of
00:50:24
average daily trading volume which by
00:50:25
the way is usually a sell signal um up
00:50:28
from low single digits before co and
00:50:30
>> so it's like when everybody got in one
00:50:32
of those accounts
00:50:33
>> that's right
00:50:34
>> trade accounts
00:50:34
>> and rather than fading retail flows hit
00:50:36
fresh records in 2025
00:50:38
>> it's cuz the stock market's up
00:50:39
>> that's right and everyone thinks we're a
00:50:40
genius now everyone's like oh I'm I'm
00:50:42
>> all right okay I like that why don't you
00:50:43
do it why don't we buy
00:50:45
>> well that's what I used to do for a
00:50:46
living between 2000 and 2008
00:50:48
>> buy all kinds of sense What could we
00:50:50
buy? What would we buy?
00:50:51
>> All kinds of stunts.
00:50:53
>> Like Chipotle or something?
00:50:54
>> Chipotle's expensive.
00:50:56
>> Chipotle is expensive.
00:50:58
>> I don't want to buy,
00:50:59
>> you know, they send me I used to tell I
00:51:00
was in the original.
00:51:01
>> Isn't that the plot?
00:51:02
>> They sent me a card.
00:51:03
>> This is the most impressive. My sons
00:51:05
have ever been with me. I got a card for
00:51:07
free lifetime Chipotle and I sold it or
00:51:09
I didn't sell it. I've lost it. But I
00:51:12
love Chipotle.
00:51:13
>> Oh, you want one again? That's what this
00:51:14
was about. Little
00:51:15
>> I didn't get paid. They sent me a card.
00:51:16
No, if they do it again, I want I want
00:51:18
serious cabbage.
00:51:19
>> Yeah.
00:51:20
>> Yeah.
00:51:21
>> Yeah. It's uh
00:51:22
>> All right.
00:51:22
>> Yeah.
00:51:23
>> I like that prediction. By the way, I
00:51:25
predict the government is going to lose
00:51:26
that idiotic case against the New York
00:51:28
Times about the hiring the DEI and then
00:51:30
attacking the woman who did
00:51:31
redistricting.
00:51:33
These people make Chowescu look kind.
00:51:36
It's ridiculous. They're going after all
00:51:38
their enemies with the FBI and they're
00:51:40
attacking Here's what I predict. It's
00:51:41
going to end in tears for those people.
00:51:44
They attack the New York Times for DEI
00:51:46
in a lawsuit. Then they're going to use
00:51:49
the Justice Department to try to get uh
00:51:51
Eugene Carol's money that Trump owes
00:51:53
her, the 83 million, which is insane.
00:51:56
And then they attack the woman in the
00:51:58
82-year-old woman. They in they they
00:52:01
raided her office um to try to find
00:52:03
corruption who did the who was so this
00:52:05
this badass lady in Virginia who did all
00:52:07
the redistricting that kicked their ass.
00:52:10
And then they are investigating the
00:52:12
reporter for the Atlantic who, you know,
00:52:16
No [ __ ] Sherlock did the story about
00:52:18
Cash Patel being a drunk. Um, and of
00:52:20
course she immediately answered it by
00:52:22
showing off a bottle she bought on
00:52:24
auction where Cash Patel gives out
00:52:26
whiskey to people with his name on it,
00:52:28
like some Woodford wi reserve whiskey.
00:52:30
So, no one's having any of this nonsense
00:52:33
that they're doing. It's just so like
00:52:35
clawish and thuggish. So, none of it's
00:52:37
going to work. That's my prediction. I
00:52:38
>> I I can't help it. I agree with you.
00:52:41
Private companies get to do what they
00:52:42
want. Whether do that's none of the
00:52:44
government's business in my view. Unless
00:52:46
it's they're claiming reverse racism. I
00:52:50
I think that
00:52:51
>> I will say
00:52:52
>> let the guy sue her sue the New York
00:52:54
Times. I don't care.
00:52:56
>> Um look, a search warrant is not proof
00:52:59
of guilt, but it is a serious threshold
00:53:01
and federal judges do not casually
00:53:03
approve raids on senior state
00:53:04
legislators.
00:53:06
>> Come on.
00:53:06
>> So, well,
00:53:08
>> why her? Why her?
00:53:09
>> Because well, okay, you could argue that
00:53:11
the investigation, the fact it was even
00:53:14
launched is politicized, but a federal a
00:53:16
sitting federal uh judge, they do not
00:53:19
issue
00:53:20
>> I don't know.
00:53:21
>> This is this is in my opinion, we'll see
00:53:23
what the evidence says.
00:53:24
>> That's correct. We'll see what the
00:53:26
evidence says.
00:53:26
>> You know, because at the same time, a
00:53:28
high-profile corruption probe,
00:53:30
>> they often look strongest at the raid
00:53:32
stage and weaker later once the evidence
00:53:34
is scrutinized. Leticia James.
00:53:36
>> But to be fair to the other side, a
00:53:38
search warrant is a, you know, it has to
00:53:40
pass a serious threshold that a federal
00:53:42
judge does not casually approve on
00:53:45
senior state legis.
00:53:46
>> I understand that, but there's a reason
00:53:47
they didn't pick 20 other Republican
00:53:49
ones. This is what they do all the time.
00:53:51
They just This is it's a it's a
00:53:53
weaponization of the power and they they
00:53:56
complained about it happening to them
00:53:59
and then they're doing it. So, stop it.
00:54:01
Just cut it out. Anyway, we want to hear
00:54:02
from you. to send us your questions
00:54:03
about business, tech, or whatever is on
00:54:05
your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot
00:54:07
to submit a question for the show or
00:54:09
call 85551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen
00:54:12
Scott universe this week, Scott uh ProfG
00:54:14
Markets is going on tour this month. Uh
00:54:16
tell us a little bit about it. Tell us a
00:54:19
tiny thing. It's kicking off May 27th.
00:54:22
It's going to San Francisco, LA, Miami,
00:54:24
Chicago, and New York. You go to
00:54:26
profarketsour.com
00:54:28
for tickets. Tell us a tiny bit about
00:54:29
this and why people should go.
00:54:31
>> Uh well, thanks Cara. It's similar to
00:54:33
what we did with Pivot. It's a live
00:54:35
tour. We have a bunch of great guests
00:54:37
across different cities. It was
00:54:39
interesting. It's interesting what sells
00:54:40
out the quickest. New York and San
00:54:44
Francisco. We were worried that San
00:54:45
Francisco wouldn't like us because we're
00:54:46
constantly ship hosting tech people, but
00:54:49
New York and San Francisco are going to
00:54:51
sell out in the next 24 hours. And um
00:54:55
anyways, but yeah, it's just a live tour
00:54:56
with me and Eden.
00:54:58
>> We sold out San Francisco first on
00:55:00
Pivot. So, it looks like Toronto. Was it
00:55:02
Toronto and
00:55:04
>> Oh, Toronto and Boston. Wait, did
00:55:05
Boston.
00:55:06
>> We sold out Boston fast. We sold them
00:55:07
all out fast. I'll be on the LA was
00:55:09
happen to be a huge theater. So, it took
00:55:10
a little longer, but
00:55:11
>> yeah. But it's it's u and it'll be after
00:55:14
the show. It'll be a bunch of people
00:55:16
coming up to me and asking me if Edson
00:55:17
is single because their daughter is
00:55:19
looking for a nice husband. Um but yeah,
00:55:22
so it's it's my um Propy Markets live
00:55:25
tour. Go to property markets tour.
00:55:27
>> Propy Markets Tour uh.com.
00:55:30
Yeah, thanks for that.
00:55:31
>> Good.
00:55:32
>> But yeah, it's starting at the end of
00:55:34
May and first week of June.
00:55:36
>> Great. That's fantastic. And also, we're
00:55:37
going to be doing Pivot in the fall.
00:55:39
Another Pivot tour in the Nepal. We're
00:55:40
just You're going to be on the road,
00:55:41
Scott Gallow.
00:55:42
>> We're doing another tour.
00:55:43
>> Yes. You know that. What do you do? You
00:55:46
know that? We are.
00:55:47
>> I didn't know that, but I'm excited
00:55:48
about it.
00:55:49
>> You did know. We literally had a call
00:55:51
about it. What happened?
00:55:52
>> We didn't have a call about another
00:55:53
tour.
00:55:54
>> We literally discussed it. We're having
00:55:56
a tour in the fall. You were on the
00:55:58
call. You weren't listening,
00:56:00
>> but you were there.
00:56:01
>> I know.
00:56:02
>> You were.
00:56:02
>> I don't remember. Where am I?
00:56:03
>> Well, we're having one. Anyway, that's
00:56:05
the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot
00:56:07
and be sure to like and subscribe to our
00:56:09
YouTube channel. We'll be back next
00:56:11
week.