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Mike Maples Jr is the co-founder of the
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Venture uh Capital firm Floodgate he's
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written a new book pattern breaker is
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why some startups change the future and
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let me say I was just telling Scott a
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second ago you're one of my favorite
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people to talk to because you're so
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smart you always given me good insights
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and although at the same time with many
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VCS it's a low bar um so uh but I've
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always appreciated your insights it was
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always different and unusual so let's
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just get into it just for people don't
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know you were an early investor you've
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always been a very earli investor in
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Twitter uh when it was Odio twitchyt and
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many others what exactly defines a
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founder or company as a pattern breaker
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I mean that's why why' you call your
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book pattern Breakers now I I'll give an
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example that's not even in the startup
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realm but it would be a pattern breaking
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example of recent times the Tesla cyber
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truck now you may like it you may
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dislike it when I saw it announce I
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thought he might be joking right like I
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I was like is he really going to ship
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that thing but nobody when they see a
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cyber truck ever says well so how does
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that compareed to an 150 so Elon kind of
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says live in my future or don't but you
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have to choose uh so pattern breaker is
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the idea was that we tend to operate
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according to consistent patterns and
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that's actually not a bad thing that
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helped helped us avoid saber-tooth
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tigers or it helps us fit in socially in
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communities and stuff but but pattern
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break pattern matching uh creates a bias
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as well it causes you to not not see
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other other opportunities this is a
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quote from you the right amount of
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disagree ableness can be a Founders Ally
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in developing breakthrough ideas now at
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the same time it can lead to toxicity
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you mentioned Elon he was he was very
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disagreeable but it's morphed into
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toxicity now right in a way that's
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everything is disagreeable right talk
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about that balance because I agree with
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you you know I I think I'm a
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disagreeable person I think it's one of
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the reason I'm successful because I
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disagree no but I go I'm like I want to
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do podcast now 10 years ago this is what
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I even though and a lot of people said
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no anything don't say anything sh sh sh
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shush um but we talk about this
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disagreeableness and when it becomes
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kind of you know I was right before and
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you'll see that I'm right again because
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it's not always the case for sure yeah
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so um so I'm going to tread carefully on
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this question because uh my uh you know
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I'm I'm a little bit more positive on
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Elon than you might be yes I know that
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um so so like the way is VC looking for
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his next deal what what VC out there
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with a fund open is critical of Elon
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Musk okay well let me so I haven't
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invested I'm sure your fondness for him
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is is is genuine anyways go ahead so so
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let me just let me just kind of descri
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like one of the things that I try to do
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and and you know there are trade-offs to
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it is I try to keep my tribal
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affiliation small so because like Elon
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contains multi multitudes sure does and
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and you know like if you look at um at
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at Nasa versus
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SpaceX to to to launch a kilogram
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uh SpaceX can do it for a 20th of the
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price right and and so I say okay I'm
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pretty interested in that right like I I
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like I'm I'm I'm glad that that that
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part of him exists in the world and then
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when I look at um when I when I look at
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what he's done you know to enable
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starlink over the Ukraine and so there
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there's like there's things about him I
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wouldn't do those things but but I try
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to I try to kind of separate you know
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the things that he does are really
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positive uh and and not try to like
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paint him with one single negative or
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positive brush I think that people are
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just complicated and especially people
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who change the future and so I'm I'm a
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little bit more more sympathetic to him
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than you might be I mean I understand
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complicated means having 12 kids and
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living with none of them and and and
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demonizing trans get he's complex yeah
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but but like what I'm what I'm saying is
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like I'm not just a shill for Elon right
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I haven't invested in his startups I'm
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not like I'm I'm not trying to say I'm
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not trying to be tribal about it right
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you have a very calat attitude Mark Mark
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benov has the same one here's the only
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thing I would say about the cutting
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prices he was allowed to blow up Rockets
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NASA isn't like so he can be more
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disagreeable and risk-taking then you
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know what I mean it's very easy to
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figure out the way to do it if you're
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allowed to blow things up and and so I
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think and by the way I think that's good
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I think we need more of that right like
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so you know but NASA can't so attacking
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NASA NASA actually can't blow things up
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but but I'm not attacking him I'm just
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saying a pattern breaker changes the
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you're acknowledging the truth he can
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put into space for less money than
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anyone else it's in I'm saying that all
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things being equal I like it and so so
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the the thing that Elon brings that I
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think we need in you know an ingredient
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in this recipe is he builds things right
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like when he says he's going to blast
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Rockets into outer space he does and
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when he says he's going to make an
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electric car work that's interesting and
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awesome he does and you know I got a lot
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of time for people like that in this
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Society um let me ask you I'm going to
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switch you from this just for a minute
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but there's so many AI startups now we
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just talked about what was going on at
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open Ai and we thought losing money all
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the mishas it doesn't matter this is a
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world changing company right it's been
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doing astonishing things ultimately it
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probably will settle itself out but what
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would you what would get you to invest
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in one and what are you interested in
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especially considering all the
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competition now there is a lot of open
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AI Google Microsoft anthropic it goes on
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and on and on
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yeah I haven't done a whole lot of AI
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investing no um it's uh so we've we've
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had a couple of ones that have been good
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so um applied intuition uh is a company
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that helps with autonomous vehicles and
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um EVS uh but it's enterprise software
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uh you know really large contracts uh
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and then I invested in uh trip Adler's
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new company the guy from script uh it's
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called created by created by humans and
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it's trying to trying to let creators
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create licensing deals with the llm
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companies um open AI is really not my
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kind of investment um I I mean I wish
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them very well along with uh anthropic
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and all these other guys but my my
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business is hard but not complicated um
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I'm wrong 85% of the time and when I'm
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airnb Airbnb correct yeah when and when
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I'm right I have to be spectacularly
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right and so I'm really good if 5% of my
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investments I make 100x on the first
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check and another 10% or so I make more
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than 20x on the first check I don't see
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a path to doing that investing in open
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AI right now or X not a venture
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investment you're a venture investor
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it's no longer exactly exactly and and
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by the way a lot of people who call
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themselves Venture investors in today's
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world are are unrecognizable to me I
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just mentioned Airbnb you had talked
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about it that you you you passed on this
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stup talk so yeah um talk about what why
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you did that and what do you look for
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when you make those misses like how do
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you as an investor when you everyone's
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going to I can think of a dozen
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different people who Miss whether it's
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Instagram or or whatever yeah so first
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of all it's helpful to just consider the
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backdrop that these startups are wild in
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the early days like people talk about
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startups the wrong way it's like trying
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to spot a beaked VCH in the galopagos
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islands with a super long beak that has
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an Adaptive advantage that allows it to
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survive in a new way but like you've
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never seen one before but it's wild
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right it's like a mutation so so with
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with Airbnb the prior week we'd been
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pitched by a company called Mojo mix
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that makes let you pick cereal online
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and it'll assemble it and ship you in a
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box and my partner an said this is dumb
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why are we talking to these people this
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isn't even what we invest in and I was
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like okay that's fair I tend to be The
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Optimist and tends to be the skeptic you
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know when we look at this stuff so then
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um week later we go in a conference room
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it's airbed and breakfast this is a year
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before they'd applied to YC and and and
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Ann looks at me all these cereal boxes
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like what the hell another cereal
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company and I kind of look back at her
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like no it's airbed and breakfast I
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don't know what what's this cereal about
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so I asked him and he says we're funding
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the company by selling cereal boxes and
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so I was like okay so Obama O's and
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Captain McCain Crunch and then and then
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I say okay well what does air bed and
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breakfast do and he says well uh our
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advisor says that you like demos and not
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slides I said that's right so he fires
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up the the product and he can't get it
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to work and so I'm like okay that's cool
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we we'll do let's just go to the slides
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he's like well I didn't bring any so
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we're like 20 minutes into this meeting
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full of cereal boxes in a conference
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room and I still have no idea what air
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bed breakfast does we're just kind of
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kind of looking at each other in in this
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room and and so but you know he he I
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knew even at the time that he had this
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certain xfactor but I I let myself get
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preoccupied I thought somebody's going
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to get murdered in one of these things
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cuz you you know at the time it was
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barely more than a WordPress site you
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know you you invite a guest to your
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house or apartment and then you serve
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them poptarts the next morning they
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sleep on an air mattress and I was just
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like this is just crazy you know and um
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fortunately because an and I had
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stupidly passed on this company when
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Lyft says hey we're going to do this
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ride sharing thing and or you know
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people are like our strangers going to
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want to get in a stranger's car an and I
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are like hey we'll take a walk on that
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wild side you know I can see it
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happening so um but with Airbnb it was
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just it just it was just such a
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discombobulated meeting and the idea was
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so crazy and you had couchsurfing.com
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which was free and it was going nowhere
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and I just I just wasn't awake enough I
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just my mind was not open and awake
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enough to the possibility of what it
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could be right um and you got as a
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venture you have to do that you have to
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sort of yeah and and and I and I I told
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myself I'm G to learn as much as I can
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from that mistake and never repeat that
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mistake because like in in corporate
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capitalism you know Buffett would say
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rule number one don't lose money rule
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number two don't forget rule number one
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in my business rule number one is don't
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pass on Airbnb because I would have made
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6,000 times my money if I'd say it it I
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could have made no good investment the
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rest of my entire career would still
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been really good so um so I spent a lot
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of time really understanding what I got
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wrong and and you know another good
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lesson in that is quite often the best
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seed opportunities don't present well
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and it it's it's incumbent on you to be
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awake to what it could be rather than oh
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the entrepreneur didn't present well I'm
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I'm out you know often happens which
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often Happ maybe more often than not
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Mike thank you so much what a thoughtful
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um uh discussion thank you and again the
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book is pattern Breakers why some
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startups change the future
