00:00:00
It came with a card, a lovely card that said, "Love your private dancer, Scott.
00:00:05
I'm your private dancer. A dancer for money."
00:00:15
Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Carara Swisser. And I turn
00:00:21
on the camera and I think, "Oh my god, she's finally done it. She's gone through transition." I'm like, "At 62,
00:00:27
you be you." Uh, but it was your brother. It was my brother. Jeff Jeff claimed the thing. Yeah, I I would look
00:00:34
good as a man. I'd be a handsome man, I would say. Um, yeah, I would. It's true. I'd be adorable. There's almost nothing
00:00:40
I can say that works. Yes, exactly. Let me just say something happened to me last night. I'm here in my new studio,
00:00:46
which I'm working on getting nice and fixing up like yours. Um, and I get a present. A FedEx guy comes and brings
00:00:52
something. And I had been contacted by your assistant MJ about sending me something. And I said, "As long as it's
00:00:59
not a stripper." You were going to send me a gift and I said, "As long as it's not a stripper." So, what to my
00:01:04
wondering eyes should appear than this.
00:01:09
Let me explain the picture for people who can't see. People who watch on YouTube can see. It's a picture of Scott
00:01:15
about to lift his shirt to show off his tummy uh to the crowd at South by Southwest. And my face is like, "Oh my
00:01:21
[ __ ] god, how did I end up here?" Sit down. Sit down. And it's what series of bad decisions like going on the shelf
00:01:27
behind me so people can enjoy it and maybe and then it came with a card, a lovely card that said, "Love your
00:01:33
private dancer Scott." Huh. Huh. I love that photo. I saw that and I
00:01:41
immediately said, "By the way, that cost real money cuz Getty photographer took it. So I had to pay some some I don't
00:01:48
know Joey Bagodon's tech company 350 bucks to get that image." Yeah. And the frame is lovely. I think that perfectly
00:01:55
summarizes our relationship. I love that photo. I'm keeping this forever. I'm going to be buried with this. Um,
00:02:02
anyway, thank you for forever is not long at your age. Oh, thank you for your lovely gift. It was so thoughtful.
00:02:08
Picture of you. I love that photo. So, speaking of things that about you, you just announced your new book. I love the
00:02:14
cover. I love the cover. Oh, thanks. Yeah, you you were the thing that tipped us over. I had all these pictures of me
00:02:19
and I'm like I that it's like the the book is called Notes on Being a Man and I'm like I'm not comfortable presenting
00:02:25
myself as you know the aspirational man because it's just not true. Yeah. But I like the more feminine writing like
00:02:31
notes and everything. Yeah. It's very It's got a feminine tone to it. It looks lovely. It's elegant. It's um I I like
00:02:38
the ones with your pictures on them. One with you as a kid and as an adult. I like that. But that could be on the
00:02:43
back, right? Or or inside or something like that. Yeah. Yeah, but this book isn't about me being the hero. It's
00:02:50
mostly about my shortcomings and it really is kind of it's a lot of data and it's sort of like where I screwed up and
00:02:56
what I learned about trying, you know, trying to lean into this more aspirational vision of masculinity. Um,
00:03:02
but I was much more comfortable not having my picture on the front because I've decided that publishers pretty much do
00:03:08
nothing but argue over the title and the cover. That's their job. Uh, but they came up with this so I got to give it to
00:03:14
them. They It was their idea. So, I was real handsome. It's I think it's going to be a bestseller. I do. Explain what's
00:03:19
happening. It's coming out early. It's coming out in November. We're going to bring you on. Yeah. I feel like this I feel like I said to the publisher, um,
00:03:26
we need to get this out sooner rather than later. And I got done early with it. Um, because I think the window of
00:03:31
opportunity is closing. I think this notion of masculinity and what it means to be a man and leaning in and trying to
00:03:38
create a or shape a positive image of masculinity. I'm like, the window is closing. That that this is the moment. We need to get this out. This is
00:03:44
perishable. Everyone from Josh Holly to Tucker Carlson are, you know, writing books or talking about masculinity,
00:03:51
manly tariffs. We'll get to that in a minute. There we go. I'm like, let's get this out. As a matter of fact, speaking of which, you didn't ask why I'm in a
00:03:57
suit. And why are you in a suit? I'm going on You look very nice, by the way. Thank you. I appreciate that. I like when you dress up. It looks handsome. I
00:04:03
appreciate that. Thank you. I'm going on the view to talk about my two topics are masculinity and tariffs. How do you
00:04:10
dress to talk about masculinity? Do you look like a professor or do I wear a Tarzan outfit? Like, what do I How do
00:04:17
you dress for that? So, I just put on a suit. Well, how was it? Did you go already? You No, no, no. I'm I'm
00:04:23
literally rocking out of here. Okay, good. Let's get to it then. Anyway, you look great. Say hi to the ladies. I love
00:04:28
them. Tell the hi Say hi to Whoopi and everything. They're really great. Um, so it's another busy news day, Scott.
00:04:34
Jesus, nothing stops. It's nutty. Um, so we're going to get right to it. Um,
00:04:39
obviously the big story is President Trump pressing pause on his quote unquote reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.
00:04:46
I just don't even want to use that word. It's just nonsense. Um, bringing tariffs down to universal 10% for most
00:04:51
countries. He is hiking tariffs on China even higher to 125% in response to
00:04:56
China's latest retaliation move, raising tariffs on the US to 84%. The market
00:05:02
skyrocket on this pause news, although the Dow surged nearly 8%, but it had
00:05:07
been down rather significantly. It's not quite back where it was, but the S&P 500 added 9.5%. The NA NASDAQ was up 12%
00:05:16
best day in 20 years, except that he had caused the decline, of course. Um, he initially told American people to be
00:05:22
cool about the tariff turmoil. Later explained his reasoning for reversing a course, which is, I'm sorry, just not
00:05:29
true. But let's listen anyway. Well, I thought that people were uh jumping a
00:05:34
little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. You know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit
00:05:40
afraid. I'll tell you who was yippy. Donald Trump. That's what happened there. 100%. 100 frigin percent. It's
00:05:46
such a shift and they're trying to spin it as a victory. They created. It's like an arsonist explaining how they put out the fire. Um the White House is spinning
00:05:54
as the art of the deal victory. But, you know, honestly, he made a mess and now he's trying to recover it. But I he was
00:06:00
very spooked by uh after a major Treasury bond selloff with 10-year yields briefly hitting 4.5% which is
00:06:06
insane because it means we have to pay more for bonds and then we'd have all this debt and he acknowledged he was
00:06:12
watching the bond markets thing. People were getting a little queasy again. He was queasy. Uh people have been telling
00:06:18
he told people not to become a a panic like a Republican but a panicked Republican a word he coined apparently
00:06:24
new party based on weak and stupid people. But honestly he's the panakan here. panicked and smartly so it was a
00:06:30
good reason to panic. Um he's also been accused of market manipulation by some Democrats including Senator Adam Schiff
00:06:36
who's calling for an investigation hours for announcing the pause that sent market surging. Trump posted on True
00:06:41
Social. This is a great time to buy. He put DJT at the end of his post his initials but also the stock ticker for
00:06:46
Trump media. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik was asked about uh by CNBC's Melissa Lee about Trump's actions in so
00:06:52
many words. Let's listen to this clown. Earlier this morning before the pause, he he put out a message saying it's a
00:06:58
great time to buy and here we are. Here we are much higher. I'd always bet on
00:07:04
Donald Trump. Every time I'd always bet on He also wrote DJT, which is a ticker for for his media company. No, no, no.
00:07:11
Every every text that was just every text he sends to me, that's his name. But that was a great time to buy the market, right? I mean, uncanny. Donald,
00:07:19
look, Donald Donald Trump understands that it's America is the greatest country. All right? We are the greatest
00:07:26
country and we have the capacity for incredible greatness, but someone needs to take the shackles off. I mean, he's
00:07:32
such an idiot. I mean, I'm sorry. Every time he speaks, I want to cringe. The White House has rejected any claims are wrong, doing saying Trump, just
00:07:38
reassuring the markets and Americans about economic assertia, but it just feels like a grift. So, first let's talk
00:07:44
about what's happened and then we'll talk about what's next. So, Scott, your take. many takes. A decent term for this
00:07:51
president would be president blink. He blinked on Tik Tok. He blinked on this. And um a friend of mine,
00:07:59
Justin, who's the uh chief investment officer of Millennium, which is, you know, one of the most successful funds
00:08:04
in history. I had dinner with him Thursday night and I asked him about this and he said, "Oh yeah, no, he's going to blank." The the adult in the
00:08:11
room here is the tenure and the adult said, "Get your head out of your ass." And he was thinking that all of these
00:08:17
nations would would acquies to the biggest customer in the world. And of
00:08:22
course they didn't. They all imposed reciprocal tariffs. So you think, "Oh, this is going to hurt Mexico." Sure,
00:08:28
it'll hurt Mexico. They they implement reciprocal tariffs and which makes goods
00:08:34
brought in imported from America more expensive. What Donald Trump decided to do or tried to do was declare war on
00:08:41
everyone all at once. meaning our entire entire import economy goes up in
00:08:48
price for Americans. The markets responded. I mean, quite frankly, that interview on CNBC just did not do her
00:08:53
job. She She was like, "Isn't this great? The markets are up." No, even after the ripup yesterday, the markets
00:09:00
gave up seven months of incredible gains. In three days, Apple lost the
00:09:05
value of Walmart. And unfortunately, the market doesn't appear
00:09:12
to have knee pads and just want to like blow this guy. We are in at some point at some
00:09:20
point people are going to realize we are in a car with a guy who's got his hands on the wheel who is blackout [ __ ]
00:09:26
drunk. And the only person in the car saying, "Hey, maybe you should pull over or let someone else drive is the 10-year
00:09:32
bond in the markets." and the markets. Explain for people who don't understand what happens if the bonds yields go up.
00:09:39
That means we pay more for the money we borrow and so does everybody else. Mortgages everyone else. Credit cards,
00:09:46
student loan debt payments, mortgages, the cost to borrow money and build another plant or hire more people. So
00:09:52
you build fewer plants and hire fewer people. The cost of everything goes up. And when yields go up, people say,
00:09:58
"Well, why wouldn't I just invest in the credit markets instead of the stock market?" So the stock market also goes down. So, one of the one of the many
00:10:05
reasons for our incredible prosperity is America as a whole has access to cheaper credit. We can borrow money less to make
00:10:11
forward-leaning investments than any country in the world. And when it spikes, it's basically saying people are
00:10:16
saying they're you need to give us more because you become a riskier bet. And unfortunately, we talk a lot about toxic
00:10:23
masculinity. The thing that's hurting America most right now is toxic uncertainty. And that is while he pulled the knife
00:10:30
out of the back halfway yesterday by saying there was a pause because he blinked. Let's be clear. The wound is
00:10:36
going to take years to heal because what's happening right now is the entire world is reconfiguring the supply chain
00:10:42
around America. They don't want to use our services. They don't want to use our manufacturing. And initially he thought,
00:10:48
okay, I'm going to accomplish a few things. I'm going to bring jobs back to the US. I'm going to reshape global trade. And I'm going to raise a bunch of
00:10:54
revenues. None of that has happened. None of that has happened. none of that is going to happen. And by the way, he's
00:10:59
blinked and he said, "No, just kidding." In in addition, just to go to the
00:11:04
comment about the ripup here, and you sent me a text on this, and it was so I was literally had just threaded
00:11:10
something. Yesterday, April 9th, we'll go down in history, is the day where
00:11:16
more insider trading took place than any day in history. I I've been trying to
00:11:21
figure out how to play this market, and the only thing I can figure out is is the volatility. Yeah, is quite frankly
00:11:27
and I don't don't do this at home. I have the money to do this. Most people don't and I do it at a small extent and
00:11:32
I imagine a worst case scenario uh because it is a risky strategy. But the way I've been playing it is I sell
00:11:38
options because the VIX has gone way up. So the price people have to pay you to write them an option, a call or a put
00:11:45
goes up. So I've been writing calls. Now yesterday I follow Apple the calls at
00:11:52
200, right? were trading at 40 cents because the stock was at like
00:11:58
170. The the options in Apple went [ __ ]
00:12:03
crazy about 10 minutes before his announcement. So, somebody knew and if
00:12:09
you if you were if you were like me and you were writing a call, I didn't do this, but if you wrote a call, someone
00:12:14
had to pay you 40 cents because it was you you sold it cheaply because it was
00:12:19
way out of the money. Five minutes later, that call was worth $4. Just that
00:12:25
one strip of options, someone made and lost a third of a billion dollars. And
00:12:32
how did all of these people know about this before? So, so is it is it fair to
00:12:37
speculate? I'm not accusing. I'm speculating. Well, when you have a guy that sets up a Swiss banking account in
00:12:43
the form of a memecoin where anyone can put money in, I mean I mean this this
00:12:48
administration has just shown such a lack of uh a lack of they might have
00:12:53
just be on his signal group. I mean who knows who knows who knows like just word
00:12:59
got out for sure. This is the sloppiest most poorest White House going and who knows who's nearby who called people.
00:13:05
Suddenly Bill Aman turns from critic to what a great job deal. I'm sure he made money in this. I would love to see. Or
00:13:12
he just calls his biggest donors and goes, "Wink wink. By the way, I I just get the sense the market's going to go up today." Yeah, I just get the sense.
00:13:18
I'm reconsidering tariffs. And it's not hard to to realize the market's going to rip up. I will say I interviewed Bill. I
00:13:25
had a tariff panel yesterday, which is probably actually it still holds up. But Bill was talking about these bonds. He
00:13:30
said these b the Japanese and especially the Chinese can wreck our economy in two seconds. not buy them, not do you know
00:13:36
all kind they are our biggest creditors and they can just push put us down just like by either not buying flooding the
00:13:43
markets with treasuries making the yields go up they could they the fact that he didn't know this or didn't
00:13:49
realize what a situation we're in because of the uh the treasury bonds is just and to say like it got the yips he
00:13:56
got the yips and he by the way he should have gotten the [ __ ] yips because if that happened it would have been a
00:14:02
disastrous economic meltdown. sound the likes of which we would never have recovered from for decades. Like that's
00:14:09
the thing. He was this close to like taking us all over the edge. And the fact that he didn't does not deserve any
00:14:15
credit. It does not deserve any good job sir [ __ ] that like the acts who such a fact who's such an oily factotem to uh
00:14:22
Trump. Um but anyway, this is just temporary relief though. Um we're now 90
00:14:28
days for of uncertainty. What should companies be doing in the meantime? And these massive Chinese terrorists, the
00:14:34
back and forth has been likened to a game of chicken. I think Trump blinks again. Mr. Yip blinks before she because
00:14:40
they have the treasuries. They've got a lot of um again, you're doing favors for China over and over by this behavior.
00:14:46
So, what do you would you do if you're a company and talk about the China thing? Because they were also touting we're now
00:14:51
really focused on China, which by the way, we should have been focused in on the first place and not this [ __ ]
00:14:56
nonsense, this other tariff. But there it's only 90 days. So thoughts? Well, I
00:15:01
can tell you what companies, non- US companies are doing. They're rrooting their business plans and their supply chain um and excising American vendors,
00:15:09
manufacturers out of their supply chain. No more discounts, by the way, from China to to Americans. Just see that
00:15:14
that will take years uh to repair. to give you a sense the two stories that illuminate
00:15:21
just how what a clown car our economic policy makers are right now is that one
00:15:27
it appears these strange tariffs that he initially thought he would impose on every country in the world he declared
00:15:32
war on everyone but once so it goes back to the Winston Churchill quote and he's credited with this but suppose it was
00:15:39
Victor Hugo that said it first there's only one thing worse than fighting with allies and that is fighting without them
00:15:45
he's decided to fight the world without his allies this is that all those ridiculous numbers around tariffs that
00:15:51
we couldn't figure it out. It ends up that that somebody fed it into chat GPT and the exact numbers fed back. So
00:15:58
they're using chat GPT to figure out economic policy. And then my favorite is the guy who has been the whisperer, the
00:16:04
tariff whisperer is Peter Navaro, a senior, we'll get to him policy and economic adviser. Yeah. And it ends up
00:16:11
that the book that Jared Kushner found, Death by China by Peter Navaro, that
00:16:16
supposedly is the Bible for this tariff strategy, cites this economist and all his policies. And it
00:16:23
ends up the economist is fake. This person doesn't exist. Anagram of his name. So this is what we have. We have
00:16:30
chat GPT and a fake economist in a book that didn't sell dictating the economic
00:16:35
policies of the largest economy in America. So, so who is going to win in
00:16:41
this China? So, if you're a an American company, what should you do? Because it's 90 days of uncertainty. He hasn't
00:16:46
removed the uncertainty.
00:16:51
My view is the following which he should have removed. My view is the following is that if someone is screaming nonsense
00:16:58
at you and threatening you all the time, it is impossible to
00:17:03
predict what is going to happen tomorrow with this guy. So quite frankly, what do you do? I think you just you keep calm
00:17:09
and carry on and that is you don't change your plans. you know, you maybe quite frankly diversify a little bit
00:17:17
from not this is so hard to predict that my feeling is when you don't know who
00:17:22
you're waking up next to the next morning, you just carry on with your life. Yeah. No gold in the in the in the
00:17:28
in the yard in a hole or anything like that. Oh, no. Well, from an investor standpoint, we talked about this last week. I I won't give it financial
00:17:34
advice. I'll just tell you what I've been doing for the last five months. Not because I have insight into Donald
00:17:39
Trump's mind, but the the trade that has paid off for the last 15 years is just
00:17:45
put more money into US growth stocks. Everything is cyclical. I think that run is coming to an end. When Apple trades
00:17:52
at a PE of 36 and it's not growing and you can buy good companies for 12, a PE
00:17:57
of 12, I'm diversifying into non US markets. So that's what I would do as an
00:18:03
investor. I would say, okay, if you're in the S&P and you think you're d you think you're diversified, you're not. You you need to diversify
00:18:09
geographically. And if you're a company head, what do you do? A US company. Jesus Christ. Well, okay. So, we're
00:18:15
going to get to Apple specifically in a second. This goes to moral. I I have been so disappointed that all of these Fortune
00:18:23
500 CEOs who wake up in the morning and look at themselves in the mirror and say, "Hello, Mr. President." I I bet two to 300 CEOs of Fortune 500 companies
00:18:30
think in the back of their mind they could be president. Diamond Demy Diamond so thirsty for presidency, but go ahead. Well, I think most of them think there's
00:18:37
an outside shot. Thirsty, but go ahead. Look, you tell you tell a you tell a 50
00:18:42
58-year-old man who is very talented and has been successful his whole life, which you have to be to become the CEO of a Fortune 500 company that you should
00:18:48
be president, he's inclined to believe you, right? I get it. Anyway, so I what if you want to be president, the key
00:18:55
quality is leadership, and that is doing the right thing even when it hurts. None of them are doing the right thing, which
00:19:00
is calling this [ __ ] out for fear that it's going to take their stock price down. This guy calling it out, some of
00:19:05
them soft. This guy out of the autocrat handbook is basically saying, if you go against me, I'm going to, you know, I'm
00:19:12
going to target your company specifically, which is straight out of the autocratic handbook. And what so
00:19:18
what the the CEOs who are just focused on short-term shareholder value are doing are like saying, "Oh, you're a great guy. You want to see who's going
00:19:24
to get exemptions from the tariffs? What companies? Just look at his lunch calendar. Yeah, we'll get to that. We're
00:19:30
going to get to that in a minute. Yeah, that's who's going to get it. Who kisses kisses up I think G is going to run right over him. And also in the next
00:19:36
thing, I don't think I think they have f gotten the upper hand again. They didn't have it. Now they do. China. China. Mhm.
00:19:43
Oh, the the definition of stupid is things that hurt other people while hurting yourself. There aren't a lot of winners here. The if there is a
00:19:50
long-term a medium and a long-term winner, simply put, it's China. Everyone acts they they they say we could wreck
00:19:56
China's economy. To be fair, China's economy is vulnerable right now. It will definitely hurt them. And by the way,
00:20:01
the percentage of trade of exports coming into America as a percentage of
00:20:07
their total has gone down 7 percentage points since the first Trump administration. And our exports into
00:20:13
them have gone down four. So, we're both less reliant on each other because we're not getting along. But be clear, they've diversified away from us more. In
00:20:20
addition, there's a couple things that put them in a power position, and we don't like to admit this. Americans are
00:20:26
wimps when it comes to enduring pain. The Chinese and especially the Russians
00:20:32
are a little bit more resilient. They're they're willing to take pain. If if all
00:20:37
of a sudden if 77% of toys under the Christmas tree are from China, if if these tariffs go through, which they
00:20:43
won't, he will blink yet again. But if they were to go through, 90% of Americans on our fixed budget, if the
00:20:48
price of toys doubles, that means instead of 10 gifts under the Christmas tree, you're going to have six. That
00:20:54
means your iPhone's going to go from Yeah. that specifically in a second. Okay, I'm sorry. I keep jumping ahead. But the
00:21:00
bottom line is Americans quite frankly just aren't willing to endure. Women are born with an instinct to endure more
00:21:07
pain because they have to go through childirth. We're the man in this relationship. America, quite frankly, has a lower tolerance for pain.
00:21:14
than China. And in addition, they aren't nearly as dependent. I I believe we're
00:21:20
just more dependent upon them than they are on us, especially around the treasuries. They could wreck us. Like I
00:21:26
don't think anyone realizes how China could wreck us if it fell. Also, by the way, it's in our infrastructure from a
00:21:32
cyber point of view. I just did a large They are they are everywhere in this country. And if you think you and I
00:21:37
believe me, I believe them to be an adversary, but the handling them this way is just he is so stupid. They now
00:21:43
know what his pain point is. He blinked on Tik Tok. He blinked on this. But by the way, these tariffs these tariffs are
00:21:49
not going to go through. There's no there's no [ __ ] way Americans are going to pay $2,300 for their iPhone. They are indeed our adversary. FYI. So
00:21:56
that's why it's so ridiculous. All right, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, how Trump's latest tariff moves are helping or hurting Apple.
00:22:02
Scott, we're back. Trump's tariff pause brought some muchneeded good news for Apple on Wednesday after its worst 4-day
00:22:07
trading stretch since 2000, if you can believe that. It was like a million years ago. Apple stock soared 15%, its
00:22:14
best day uh since January 1998. But the ongoing and increasing China tariffs are
00:22:19
still a major problem for the company as Apple makes about 90% of its phones there. Apple is reportedly now planning
00:22:24
to source more phones from India to offset some of these costs. Um a couple things. Apple um if you're Tim Cook,
00:22:30
you've got a you've got a this is the biggest test of your metal I think ever in your in your tenure. You've done a
00:22:37
very good job, but this is really tough. Apple was exempt from broad tariffs in Trump's first term, but that's not happening now despite Tim Cook's $1
00:22:44
million donation to Trump's inauguration. It also announced a commitment to invest over $500 million
00:22:50
in the US over the next four years back in February. Um it, you know what, it had done that in the previous
00:22:55
administration and it was stuff they were going to do anyway. So, that was kind of a a nothing burger. Um so, one
00:23:01
thing Trump could do um is throw Apple a lifeline with an exemption. Another exemption. Um, and one thing they're
00:23:08
saying, which is nonsense, is that the White House says the solution is to move iPhone manufacturing to the United
00:23:14
States. Press Secretary Carolyn Levit, who is 27, everybody, let me be clear, this is she does not know what she's
00:23:19
talking about, said in her briefing this week that Trump believes we have the labor, the workforce, the resources. Carolyn, you're an idiot. Even if that
00:23:26
were to happen, it would cost $30 billion in three years for Apple to move just 10% of their supply chain to the
00:23:32
US, according to one analyst. and the price for the iPhone would sore to from $1,000 to $3,500,
00:23:39
uh, which is a non-starter. So, uh, there's no plans to move iPhones to the
00:23:44
US at all. Um, the short-term benefit for Apple is that people have been flooding into their store to buy
00:23:50
iPhones. Everyone's like, "Get one now." Um, you know, there's a tariff panic happening and how much these are going
00:23:55
to cost. Um, I mean, they are really squeezed. So, what what's their best thing? an exemption, which Tim Cook do
00:24:02
because sucking up didn't work. Uh, which you might I guess more sucking up might work, but go ahead. Uh, I'm I'm
00:24:08
fairly confident there will be no tariff on Apple products. One, I think he's going to blink around these tariffs to begin with with China when when the
00:24:15
market tells him what you've just outlined that we're not as strong as we think relative to China. Two, Tim Cook
00:24:20
is the business person that Donald Trump thinks he is, and that is Tim will be smart. He'll go there. He'll kiss his
00:24:27
ass. And also, if you want to talk about a cult, the cult of iOS, I mean, first off, the insane notion that we want to
00:24:34
bring these jobs back, Dave Chappelle summarized it perfectly. We want to wear Nikes. We don't want to make them. The
00:24:39
average assembly wage of an assembly line worker entry level in China in an Apple factory is $500 a month. We want
00:24:46
to bring those jobs back to America. You think you wanna you wanna you want to enrage a cult? Take iPhones to 3,500
00:24:54
bucks and then you're going to see the largest the most valuable company in history, an American company lose the
00:24:59
value of the German GDP over the course of a year. You're going to take push
00:25:05
back people's retirements. Apple's going to have to withdraw all sorts of growth plans. And you want to piss off every
00:25:12
every millennial and Gen X in the world. Take their iPhones to 3500 bucks. Apple
00:25:18
is not going to have any tariffs here. Having said that, what is Apple doing? And they've been doing it for a while.
00:25:23
They're trying to diversify their supply chain out of China for a number of reasons. And by the way, to you, you're talking about analyst Dan Ives. Just to
00:25:30
get 10% out of China takes three years and cost $40 billion. By that time,
00:25:35
Trump will be gone presumably. So this notion that I am fairly
00:25:41
confident, folks, you're going to be able to have your iPhone at the same price as now because one, I think these
00:25:47
China tariffs will not last because this is what she this is how she thinks of Trump right now. The same way Logan Roy
00:25:54
feels about his children in succession. You are not serious people. No. She
00:25:59
looks at Trump and he's like, "You are not serious people. We are not backing down. We didn't back down on TikTok. All
00:26:04
these extensions are serious now. We're going to we're going to ban you unless you sell to Larry Ellison and Elon Musk.
00:26:10
They're like, "Okay, hold my [ __ ] beer." That's what they're saying now. Okay, you want to tariff this? We'll
00:26:15
respond with the same tariffs. It'll hurt us both. It will They will back down. He will blink yet again on China.
00:26:21
And even if there are tariffs on China, he will come up with a reason not to inflame a cult that is even stronger
00:26:28
than the MAGA cult. And that's the iOS cult. And Tim Cook will go back, go down to Mara Lago, tell him he's a genius,
00:26:34
show him a new iPhone with his picture on it with a golden crusted leafed
00:26:39
picture silhouette of Donald Trump and he will find an exemption for Apple. I just the idea that Apple the iPhones are
00:26:47
going to go to $2,200 much less 3500 or that we're going to bring back those millions of jobs of people screwing in
00:26:54
little. It's just this is they're like every time they open their mouth I'm like what are you talking about like
00:27:01
where where are you gonna put these factories and who's gonna oh oh god we will automate them before and by the way
00:27:08
there are advance then they always drag out advanced we're going to do advanced manufacturing it's already being done here Carolyn Levit you dumbass we have
00:27:15
Gorilla Glass we they're already doing what they the high level stuff here and creating jobs and they think you're so
00:27:22
stupid I just I I've got so many calls from tech people like how stupid are they? And I was like, seems like
00:27:28
extremely so because they don't understand that. Why would you build a factory here with this lunatic in
00:27:35
charge? You never know what he's going to do if he's going to arrest you. He's going to do, you know, I mean, he or your life hell. I don't know if any of
00:27:41
this stuff is going to last, but it's it's so chaotic. It's like a monkey
00:27:47
flinging feces at all of us. So, we're just going to duck until he goes away. Apple is the most valuable company in
00:27:53
the world or was it briefly went to number two. I think it's back to number one. We have hundreds of or they have
00:28:00
hundreds of thousands of people working in their supply chain and factories in Foxcon and in China. Those people make
00:28:06
between 500 shitty dollars between kind of 20,000 and $40,000 a year. We've
00:28:12
outsourced those jobs to China. Uh probably the most robust supply chain ever on a consumer level in history.
00:28:17
maybe with the exception of the supply chain of the Manhattan project that was kind of invented overnight and
00:28:22
coordinated to create the bomb and save save the world. Anyways, we held on. Apple has hundreds
00:28:30
of thousands of employees across the west and here's what they're in design product management strategy higherend
00:28:36
stuff that we're good at. Yeah, they average about $210,000 a year. Smarter information technology. We have
00:28:43
outsourced $500 a month, $20,000 a year jobs such that we would have more money
00:28:49
to invest and grow our topline revenue such that we could pay more Americans $200,000 a year. Nike Nike doesn't want
00:28:58
people making two bucks an hour putting together Air Jordans. They want people who understand branding and sports
00:29:04
sponsorships and great retail that again make about I think 150 to $180,000 a
00:29:11
year. And if you want to bring back those jobs and pay people minimum wage at some plant in Lancing, Michigan,
00:29:17
they'd rather work at McDonald's. Everyone else, they would do other jobs.
00:29:22
They would do better at McDonald's. They would do better at Amazon. It's just Oh god, they're so dumb. Speaking of dumb,
00:29:28
let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Elon Musk's escalating feud with Peter Navaro. In this case, team Elon. Scott, we're back
00:29:36
with more headlines. The feud between Elon Musk and Trump trade adviser Peter Navaro is heating up and Scott and I are
00:29:42
on team Elon this time. Musk called Navaro quote dumber than a sack of bricks. In an ex post that was in
00:29:49
response to Navaro saying on CNBC that Elon was a car assembler, not a car manufacturer because Tesla relies on
00:29:55
parts around the world. Uh again, press secretary Carolyn Levit, who I like to
00:30:00
call uh Tracy Flick, had this to say about it when asked about the feud. Look, these are obviously two
00:30:06
individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs. Um, boys will be boys and we will let their
00:30:13
public sparring continue. Um, and you guys should all be very grateful that we have the most transparent administration
00:30:18
in history. Oh my god. Boys will be boys. Oh, like give me a break. This is
00:30:23
Boys don't talk like this. He Listen, I agree with Elon. I wouldn't have used some of the words he used. I like dumber
00:30:29
than a break-in [ __ ] The other ones I'm not so thrilled with. Look, you can not you can hate on Elon
00:30:35
Musk as much as you want. He's made an astonishing company here in the United States and really does know about this
00:30:41
stuff, right? And have this this this like faux economist give him tell him how things work is just an astonishing
00:30:48
thing. And in this case, when of course it's all in Elon's self-interest to get because he needs to, you know, you eat
00:30:54
at the trough on the other stuff. But um but this is just uh it's just like I'm
00:31:00
so glad Elon called him dumber than a stack of bricks or whatever he called them. I don't know. What are your thoughts? Yeah, it's weird to agree with
00:31:07
Elon, but look, I thought I and I still think the fall guy for Signalgate, it's going to be Waltz. I think the fall guy
00:31:13
here when this just just becomes stupider and stupider and stupider as we the president continues to to wake up
00:31:20
next to an adult called the tenure and blinks over and over and over. the fall guy will be Navaro who by the way folks
00:31:27
spent four months in prison and is has been quote unquote the architect or the
00:31:32
whisperer here around the tariffs and you know I got to be honest if there's a if it's a war between
00:31:38
Navaro and Musk I'm I'm rooting for the bullets I'm enjoying this they both you know when you insult
00:31:46
people like this in public you make them look bad and you also look bad but look
00:31:52
he's right and by the way just Again, I hate agreeing with but when Navaro calls
00:31:57
Tesla an assembler, Tesla is the most Americanmade company in America. Absolutely. The greatest percentage of
00:32:03
parts actually manufactured and assembled in the US. The winner of the top four ideas behind it. Look, it
00:32:11
hasn't been keeping up in innovation. But what an accomplishment. No, but but but there's a there's a ranking done of
00:32:17
who makes the most American car based on how many parts are actually that go into the car actually are made in America.
00:32:24
And the top four or five most Americanmade cars are all Tesla models. So the notion
00:32:30
somehow Tesla is the least assembled car from foreign products of any automobile
00:32:36
manufacturer. The Fords are less American than Tesla. So Peter Navaro, I
00:32:42
mean, my god, sit down. sit down. This guy, this is the last
00:32:48
person you would want advising the president on economic policies. And
00:32:54
Trump is going to get angry pretty fast when when he has to blink over and over and over. This guy's I mean, it's
00:33:00
interesting that he's in the sway of him. You know, Trump, as you and I know, have been has been talking about this terrible thing since the 80s. It's
00:33:06
really, as we talked about last week, so he this guy was playing into already interest that Trump has, right? But the
00:33:13
fact that he's listen like listening to him like this, I don't think he's going to suffer. I don't think he's going to get rid of him. I don't think he is. I
00:33:18
don't I I think he keeps him around, they can [ __ ] up as much as they want, which to me, this is the guy who has the
00:33:24
reputation for firing people, but he actually doesn't, right? He sort of does, but it's still pretty early. I
00:33:30
mean, we're only we're only 10 weeks in. That's true. Navar has been sidelined. And then he was trying very desperately
00:33:36
to pretend this was the plan. It might not be a press release or announcement on the west lawn. It'll be a VC. Vec
00:33:42
Ramas Swami was fired. He just did it quietly and pretended that he wanted to go run for governor two years before the
00:33:48
actual race. I think he's going to It's like you know what they By the way, I think I
00:33:54
think Elon's going to leave. What do they say about old soldiers? They never die. They just fade away. That's what's going to happen here. I mean I feel like
00:34:00
probably somewhere in Elon's adult brain is like what in the actual [ __ ] right? Like he's not he's he may be heinous,
00:34:08
but he's not stupid, right? He can't like can you imagine sitting there and then god the pretending that this is one
00:34:16
particular one was David Sags was like pretending this is a victory. It's not a victory. I read that tweet I couldn't
00:34:21
even understand. I didn't even understand. He was right about everything again. What was he right about? I wrecked it and then I he fixed
00:34:28
it. Isn't he brilliant? What? Like honestly like even even Elon couldn't
00:34:34
like tolerate that. Anyway, Navaro, goodbye. Good night. Go to sleep. You're good. You're done. go home or go back to
00:34:41
prison, wherever, wherever you want to go. Anyway, couple of quick things. Scotas is cutting red tape for President Trump the past week. The court has said
00:34:47
the administration does not have to comply with an order directing to rehire thousands of federal employees, lifted an order stopping the use of alien
00:34:54
enemies act for deportations allowed the plan uh to freeze funding for teachers and Chief Justice Roberts allowed the
00:35:01
Justice Department more time to litigate whether administration must return a man who was deported by error. A lot of these rulings are temporary. They
00:35:07
haven't made the ruling, but they've left things in place, which is just the same as making the ruling to many
00:35:14
people. Um, they're not doing anything. They must be like they're inundated. The Trump administration, just the way
00:35:19
they're inundating law firms or media with all kinds of nonsense, is inundating the Supreme Court with all
00:35:24
kinds of requests and all of which take time. So, they're like they're working, these old people are working overtime in
00:35:31
this case. Um, you know, I think they will put everything into stasis, which is exact exactly what Trump wants,
00:35:37
meaning he can run rough show. He doesn't stop anything. So, thoughts.
00:35:43
I think the darkest moments in Western progressive society have been something around camps. Obviously, Germany and
00:35:50
concentration camps. I think one of the darkest moments in American history that we try to airbrush over is the fact that
00:35:57
we took law-abiding Japanese families, some of whom had um boys serving the
00:36:04
European theater and put them in internment camps. I think that some of the black sites to avoid Geneva
00:36:09
Conventions laws that we spun up to basically torture uh combatants during, you know, the war
00:36:16
on terrorism. I think that over time we will realize that just how ugly that was. And I've I've said for a while that
00:36:22
I thought similar to Germany, we were one economic shock away from doing something similar in the US, but it always takes on a different complexion.
00:36:29
But when you start rounding people up and many of them don't have a
00:36:34
criminal record, and some of them just have the wrong tattoo, and you essentially send them, I'm not going to call them concentration camps because I
00:36:40
think they're different levels of depravity. And that concentration camps took, you know, took the crown for a
00:36:46
level of depravity we haven't seen since then, fortunately. But when you send people to overcrowded prisons with no
00:36:51
due process in another country and then you refuse to acknowledge your mistake and bring them back, which you could do with one call, that is a form that is
00:36:59
going to be something we're going to look back on and think, you know, we really should have spoke up. We really should have spoken up. And also, I just
00:37:04
want to do a shout out. Tim Miller from the Bull Work has been really good on this. He's been highlighting this and
00:37:10
he's been a steadfast voice on this. Folks, just be clear. This stuff always takes on a different complexion. And
00:37:17
when you allow this to happen without due process, just be careful when you get that knock on the door. Yeah. So,
00:37:23
this is one of and one of the reasons, let me take it to economics because it seems to be the only [ __ ] thing Americans care about is when their 401k
00:37:29
goes up or down. One of the reasons our stocks trade a higher trade at a higher multiple, one of the reasons we attract
00:37:35
the most human capital and the most financial capital in the world is due process and rule of law. And it's
00:37:41
tempting to bypass it. If we did away with search and seizure laws, crime would go down. It comes at a cost,
00:37:48
right? But it's worth it. And over time, it creates the greatest economy, the
00:37:53
greatest society. Think of America as a product. We offer more prosperity and more rights at the lowest cost in terms
00:38:01
of taxes in the history. This is the best product ever. And a key component of that value is there is expensive,
00:38:07
sometimes awkward, sometimes inefficient due process. So be clear when you turn a
00:38:13
blind eye to some gay hairdresser who has done nothing wrong who ends up in a
00:38:18
hellscape prison in El Salvador and no one is willing to make a call and get
00:38:23
him out and acknowledge the mistake at some point that knock on the door might come for you. Correct. I mean I it's
00:38:30
interesting even in small ways I have several friends who are on green cards here. They've every one of two of them
00:38:35
in the last week have had real problems at the at coming back into the country. like they wanted to look at one of my
00:38:41
friends uh messages and she refused. She said, "No, you can't look at my phone. Get a subpoena." And they're like,
00:38:47
"Well, it would be easier on you if you let us see it." And she's like, "Do I have to?" And they said, "No." And she goes, "I shall not then." I mean, they
00:38:53
and this other lovely guy, he's from Switzerland, slowed down at the border, hour and a half, two hours, just like
00:39:00
pressuring them to say things. It's just even at the smallest level, it's it's
00:39:05
it's everywhere. And they will come for you. They're 100% come for you. Um, let's finish up on one more thing. Um, I
00:39:12
want to talk about Chris Krebs, who is head of SISA, uh, who was the who who
00:39:17
was fired by Trump for saying the election, the 2020 election was legal.
00:39:22
Um, and Trump fired him or everything was fine. And he is now going after via executive order, Chris. um and and and
00:39:30
uh removing security clearances from the company he works for, meaning Chris will probably he's going to hurt the company
00:39:36
itself. Um in order to get rid of Chris and also Miles Taylor, who was the one
00:39:41
who was deep throat essentially this the first administration um and they're going after them personally uh trying to
00:39:48
ruin and wreck their lives. And I don't know what you think about this. I have great regard for Chris and Miles and uh
00:39:54
what they're doing here is specifically targeting specific people via executive order because he told both of them told
00:40:01
the truth. I don't know if you have any thoughts on that, but I will do anything to help Chris. Um whether it's raising a
00:40:08
legal defense fund, anything else, but the fact that he's specifically targeting people now is American
00:40:14
citizens who just did their job and told the truth is chilling. As far as I'm I I couldn't be more outraged by the by
00:40:20
this. I'm outraged by all of them, but this is an astonishing attack on on people who um just were doing their job.
00:40:29
Yeah. Like this is again along the lines of depravity in an autocrat's handbook where he's trying to create an incentive
00:40:35
program where if you say nice things about me, I might give you call you and say, "Oh, by the way, I get the sense
00:40:40
the markets are going to go up tomorrow and you get rich." Or if you come to have lunch with me in Mara Lago, I'll exempt your company from these tariffs.
00:40:47
And if you do your job and say, "I see no election interference," I might come after you with the full weight of the
00:40:54
Department of Justice. I'd like to think that our justice system will vomit on
00:41:00
this. And the only observation I would have here, other than what you said, which is exactly right, and I think it's
00:41:06
important that we keep raising these issues, is the timing of this was not accidental. Mhm. He did it yesterday
00:41:13
because he wants a misdirect from people to look away from the fact that he blinked and that he is literally [ __ ]
00:41:18
with the global economy like a drunk driver right now. So what do you know? Hey folks, I mean this is how we pull
00:41:25
this one out of my pocket. It had this one. I want to outrage I want to outrage the lip tards in the media and get them
00:41:30
to look over here at what is a blatant violation of the law and the autocrat such that they such that they stop
00:41:38
staring at the fact that I am unilaterally taking the global economy down for no [ __ ] good reason. Yep.
00:41:44
Because I'm in So I I I agree with you. I think it's terrible. I appreciate you bringing it up, but quite frankly, I
00:41:49
think it is a purposeful misdirect from the fact that he's taking the global economy down. Except I think it's more systematic that this is removing
00:41:56
clearances from this company is going to force them to him. He's going to have to quit because he's hurting this company.
00:42:01
Right. The second thing is he does he's reversing clearances revoking clearances to law firms that don't cooperate. They
00:42:07
can't do business, which is why they're being so acquiescent is they're losing clients. They're losing everything. If
00:42:13
you can't if you have federal business and you can't do federal business because you don't have security
00:42:18
clearances or the government won't work with you, you're [ __ ] Like it's it it is part of a bigger picture of [ __ ]
00:42:25
with people's economics, right? This is this is the goal here with Chris and Miles is to [ __ ] with their economics
00:42:31
and to [ __ ] with the economics people they work and affiliate with. Not a you know, finding a lawyer is going to be
00:42:36
hard because they [ __ ] with the lawyers. The media is nervous, you know, and then illegally reward your allies. This is
00:42:42
this is part of the same thing of of even if it's a distraction, it's also trying to kneecap everybody so they
00:42:49
can't come after you in some fashion. Whether it's the media, the the lawyers, uh obviously the justice department has
00:42:56
lost every bit of ethical boundaries is over because of that another oily
00:43:02
factotem, Pam Bondi. Um, you know, it's just I think it is a distraction and yet
00:43:08
it's also part of the same plan. When he does stupid theft like this with the economy, not just stupid, but dangerous
00:43:14
and uh devastating, he he can then threaten people at the same time. It's a
00:43:19
it's a similar thing. Agreed. Anyway, uh what All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
00:43:27
Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. What's your prediction? Well, I have three, but they're all related. one uh blink this guy will
00:43:36
blink again the Chinese the tariffs you know okay 90day pause more uncertainty
00:43:43
more reduction in the multiple awarded by global investors on
00:43:49
every company in the US because we are now brand America is toxic
00:43:55
uncertainty and so this 90-day pause is ridiculous he will and then theund I
00:44:00
think we're at 125% tariff on China, he will blink again. The tariffs will come
00:44:06
dramatically down because quite frankly, she looks at Trump and says, "You are not serious people." Folks, this isn't
00:44:13
going to happen. The tariffs are going to come way down. Trump will blink again. Even more confident, there will
00:44:20
be no tariffs, incremental tariffs on Apple products. Tim Cook will play Trump
00:44:26
like a fiddle. Trump will be scared to piss off the cult of iOS, which is huge in the United States, and he will not
00:44:34
want to kneecap our shiniest, brightest, most handsome, thoroughbred, and that is
00:44:39
Apple. That's not going to happen. In addition, we're going to find out in
00:44:44
somewhere between, you know, three years and nine months, uh, or sooner that the
00:44:51
greatest the greatest, uh, uh, criminal insider trading took place
00:44:59
yesterday. There's just no way this administration who is one telling the
00:45:06
DOJ to drop all cases against a mayor accused of of of conspiring with a
00:45:11
foreign agent because he supports the administration. Two, that creates a Swiss banking account that you can put
00:45:16
money into with no no record. Three, tells all after getting a quarter of a billion dollars from the crypto
00:45:22
community. tells everyone investigating platforms in the crypto crypto community for good reason to stop all
00:45:28
investigations to believe that this administration did not leak insider
00:45:34
information or engage in massive market manipulation yesterday. We're going to find out that April 9th was literally
00:45:41
the biggest griff day in history. Do anything about it? Will the SEC do something? He was pretty silent. this
00:45:47
new acting SEC him. Nothing will happen until January of 2029 if a Democrat is
00:45:55
elected. Only if. Only if. But in this economy, in this digital age, there'll
00:46:01
be digital records everywhere. They can just go through, they can use AI to go through who was buying and selling all
00:46:07
of these options 10 minutes before. There's phone records and digital
00:46:13
servers everywhere and they're just I think going to find dozens if not hundreds of people who have a connection
00:46:19
to the White House who were given a nink a wink and a nod and made millions of
00:46:25
dollars uh engaging in market manipulation or trading on non-material
00:46:30
uh non-public material information. This will go down as the biggest Griff Day in
00:46:35
history, Wednesday, April 9th. All right. Uh that's a good one. Those are good ones and they're all related. Uh,
00:46:41
and they're all really depressing in so many ways. You have anything happy?
00:46:46
Anything? Anything? I don't know. I'm I'm excited. The new Mission Impossible is coming. You want to go with me? Uh,
00:46:53
you keep talking about taking me to a movie. I don't really go to many movies anymore. You got to You love Mission Impossible. Now that you sent me an
00:46:58
intimate picture of us, I think it's I did. I think it's I did. I'm your private dancer. I love that song. A
00:47:04
dancer for money. Private dancer. A dancer for money. I love that album.
00:47:10
That whole album. Go listen to that album. I listened to it when I was in my early 20s. I love that [ __ ] album.
00:47:16
Did you like it? Yeah. Um remember she was she made her way back. Oh, such a
00:47:21
good Yeah. I think whenever I think of that, I think of Marissa Toé from the movie The Wrestler. I think I could ended up with Marissa Toé. She's a
00:47:27
beauty. I love her. Oh, she's beautiful. She's so hot. She's She's so good and she's age appropriate for me. Anyway, so
00:47:34
you're married. Okay. All right. Um Um Anyway, anyways. Oh, wait. You want to go back to my college tour? Someone asked me to
00:47:40
personify Duke. Okay. Um Okay. Uh by the way, did I tell you in the middle like
00:47:46
you're on these tours? Yeah. And in the middle of the you Chicago and Duke
00:47:51
tours, I did the same thing with my son. Totally inappropriate. Now he mentions uh the
00:47:57
person giving the tour said, "We want to know the real you dimp word." And someone asked, "What's the admissions rate?" Okay. 4% at Duke in the
00:48:04
University of Chicago. which means that so everyone is there with their two overprotective parents. So if there's if
00:48:11
there's 25 people or uh 75 people on the tour, which is the average size of the
00:48:16
tour, one of those people, one of those kids is getting in. So I said to my son as soon as they said 4%, I said I said,
00:48:23
"Let's leave the tour." And he said, "Why?" And I said, "Let's break up with this [ __ ] before she breaks up with
00:48:28
us." And he looked at me and he knew exactly what I meant. And we pieced out and we went and checked out the stadiums
00:48:34
and went and got food. God. But I'm like, it is so insane. Anyways, back to Duke. They're down to 4%. Yeah, Duke
00:48:41
will produce Duke is the new Harvard. Duke will produce more presidents in the next 50 years than Harvard because
00:48:47
presidents are one of two things. They're either really [ __ ] impressive or ridiculously rich. Uh Obama, Clinton,
00:48:54
the former, you know, Trump and W, although I think W is actually a decent
00:49:00
man. They're really rich. And Duke has more really freakishly impressive and
00:49:05
really rich people than any university right now. Duke then Duke is the new Harvard. Okay. All right. But you're
00:49:10
pieced out because you broke up with that [ __ ] Okay. 4%. Why do we want to put Why would you want to do that's like
00:49:17
that's like games. That's like me in a bar with hot people. It's just not going to happen. Yes. It's just not going to
00:49:23
happen. I mean, have at it. If there was common app in a bar, I'd be all over it, but you know, not going to happen. All
00:49:29
right. You know, I I'm not gonna go. My son loved that. That was so bonded. But I taught at Duke for a semester. Anyway, it's lovely. Of course you did.
00:49:36
Journalism. Yes. Beautiful campus. Oh my god. Anyway, thank you, Scott. It was
00:49:41
very thoughtful and I it made gave me a good laugh last night. I'm glad. Anyway, uh it was very touching. If you've got
00:49:47
Walt never sent me a picture of him nearly naked. Um if you've got a question of your own that you'd like
00:49:52
answered, send it our way. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 pivot. Elsewhere
00:49:59
in the Karen Scott universe, this week in Prof conversations, Scott spoke with Ian Bremer, president and founder of the
00:50:06
Eurasia Group, one of our favorites. Let's listen to a clip. Longer term, there are some winners and China
00:50:13
long-term will also benefit because the United States will have given up so much
00:50:19
reputational capital and China will be able to take advantage of that particularly in the global south but also to a degree in Asia, the Japanese,
00:50:27
the South Koreans, to a degree in Europe. But in the near term, China gets hit really badly. In the near term,
00:50:34
Mexico and Canada get hit really badly. In the near term, the United States is the comparative winner and I expect that
00:50:40
to be reflected in the markets. So, it's a little different from what you were saying, but in the long term, this has been represent. Yeah. By the way, on
00:50:47
anything geopolitics, you know, go with Ian's view. He's very bright. Okay,
00:50:53
that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back
00:50:58
next week. Scott, read us out. Today's show was produced by Laran, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernina Todd
00:51:04
engineered this episode. Jim Mle edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Mia Seo, and Dan Shalon. Nishak Kurwa is Vox
00:51:11
Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcast. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York
00:51:16
Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week
00:51:22
for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Cara, the market is down uh 1100 points. Toxic uncertainty.
00:51:29
Welcome to the Trump administration. [Music]
