00:00:00
He really doesn't seem to have a plan.
00:00:01
And he's the president, right?
00:00:03
>> He'll call you and ask you for your plan
00:00:04
in about half an hour.
00:00:06
>> He's going to
00:00:13
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:15
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast
00:00:17
Network. I'm Cara Swisser.
00:00:19
>> And I'm Scott Galloway.
00:00:20
>> So, I just flew in from San Francisco
00:00:22
and boy are my arms tired.
00:00:23
>> I've heard that truck before.
00:00:25
>> I know. I I don't know why I keep doing
00:00:27
the the night flights things. I just
00:00:29
keep I think I'm getting too old for it.
00:00:31
Um, but I had, as you can hear
00:00:33
everybody, I have a cold. And I actually
00:00:35
was there to interview Gavin Newsome uh
00:00:38
for his book, Young Man in a Hurry, uh,
00:00:40
which is now, I guess, Old Man in a
00:00:42
Hurry. Um, and, uh, and so I I went in
00:00:46
to do that and it was actually a
00:00:47
fantastic interview. We'll talk about
00:00:49
it.
00:00:49
>> That's got a lot of news.
00:00:50
>> Yeah, I did. I made a lot. I'm a news
00:00:52
maker, my friend. I don't
00:00:53
>> And I just just to be clear to give you
00:00:55
insight into our relationship, he there
00:00:57
was someone put out a thing saying that
00:00:59
he was in support of he changes tone or
00:01:01
he's in support of regime change
00:01:03
>> and I wrote smart and you bered me. So
00:01:06
why don't you give us
00:01:08
>> not publicly. We're going to talk about
00:01:09
it. We're going to let's let's we'll get
00:01:11
into it. I didn't berate you. It just
00:01:13
was inaccurately depicting the interview
00:01:15
I had just done
00:01:16
>> because I wrote because I wrote the word
00:01:18
smart.
00:01:19
>> No, because you were tweeting an
00:01:21
inaccurate report. That's all.
00:01:22
>> What was who who put out the inaccurate
00:01:24
report?
00:01:24
>> I don't know. It just was weird. It was
00:01:26
weird because it was so not what he
00:01:28
said. Um, and so it just annoys me. It
00:01:30
just annoys me. I mean, I definitely
00:01:32
definitely made a lot of news in that
00:01:33
interview. Um, by the way, we talked we
00:01:36
talked a lot about his book, which was
00:01:38
interesting. Um, we'll get to the
00:01:40
>> But he's definitely not running for
00:01:41
president because no president ever puts
00:01:42
out a book before they run for
00:01:43
president.
00:01:44
>> I know. Well, no, he kept saying that he
00:01:45
wasn't sure. It was really funny. And
00:01:47
then right afterwards, um, it's actually
00:01:50
I like the book. It's gotten some bad
00:01:52
reviews, but I think they've just
00:01:53
decided who he is and are b are
00:01:56
reviewing it based on sort of that
00:01:58
anxious toad slick image versus a lot of
00:02:01
stuff that he's done that's brave. He's
00:02:02
a very complex person like yourself,
00:02:04
Scott Galloway.
00:02:05
>> I've heard it's actually pretty
00:02:06
authentic.
00:02:07
>> I thought it was great and it was a lot
00:02:09
about stuff um it was there was it was
00:02:12
let me just characterize this
00:02:13
discussion. The book I really like, I
00:02:15
have to say, and I think I found out a
00:02:17
lot of things about him that I didn't
00:02:18
know. His um about his mother. I I knew
00:02:22
a little bit about his mother's assisted
00:02:23
suicide, but it was really uh um really
00:02:28
interesting to talk about a lot about
00:02:30
his own struggles and not it wasn't the
00:02:32
dyslexia part. We didn't talk a lot
00:02:33
about that, but a lot about I didn't
00:02:36
know his wife had had a miscarriage, for
00:02:39
example. Um they have he has four kids.
00:02:41
He almost had five. Um it was a there's
00:02:44
a lot in there. There was a lot in
00:02:46
there. And one of the things that struck
00:02:47
me, which brings me back to you, which I
00:02:49
know how you like that,
00:02:50
>> is he was the wife uh he was the son of
00:02:52
a single mom who was not wealthy. And he
00:02:56
he has a lot of resonances to your with
00:02:58
your mom. You know what I mean? Like
00:03:00
your story with your single mom who was
00:03:02
struggling, father who was distant um
00:03:06
and who he who he desperately wanted to
00:03:08
to to be with. It was really it reminded
00:03:10
me a lot of you actually. It was an
00:03:12
interesting discussion.
00:03:13
>> I think people underestimate Newsome and
00:03:16
I think they underestimate um DSantis
00:03:18
and Rubio. Um but I think right now
00:03:23
uh you know I I I think Governor Nome
00:03:26
hands down is the is the leading
00:03:29
candidate on the Democratic side. And
00:03:30
not only that, I think I know a little
00:03:32
bit about his personal story and I
00:03:33
actually think it's quite compelling.
00:03:35
>> Yeah.
00:03:36
>> And a lot of his personal failings I
00:03:38
think will come across as a bit
00:03:40
authentic. people know about them
00:03:42
>> and also I think California is going to
00:03:45
begin not to peak but to recover at just
00:03:47
the right moment for him.
00:03:48
>> Yeah, I I suspect. Anyway, it was really
00:03:50
interesting because I did feel like I
00:03:51
was having the same discussion you and I
00:03:53
have had about single moms.
00:03:55
>> Look, we're the same person except he's
00:03:56
much more talented and handsome and
00:03:58
higher character than me. Other than
00:03:59
that, we're the same guy.
00:04:00
>> That's what he suffers from. That's
00:04:01
everybody is sensitive to you and not to
00:04:02
him. He definitely played into it. We
00:04:04
talked about that. It was a very
00:04:05
personal thing, but we did get a lot of
00:04:07
news in too.
00:04:08
>> Yeah. Reading about it everywhere. I
00:04:10
know. Yeah.
00:04:12
>> I I literally see Gavin Newsome and this
00:04:14
11-year-old boy on stage and I'm like,
00:04:16
"Oh, I know her."
00:04:17
>> And my voice is so For those listening
00:04:19
to it, I apologize. This is a good
00:04:21
version of my voice. It was so I I was
00:04:23
absolutely dead horse three hours before
00:04:26
and I thought I'd have to cancel, but I
00:04:28
I I did all manner of things to my voice
00:04:30
to allow it to work.
00:04:32
>> Um, and he got to over and I said I
00:04:33
said, "You're lucky today. I've never
00:04:35
had a man overalk me, so I'm you're
00:04:38
going to get some chance to do that
00:04:39
today." Okay, which was funny. Um, and
00:04:40
he does talk a lot, let me just say. So,
00:04:43
let's get right let's get right into it.
00:04:45
Um, President Trump says the US military
00:04:46
intends to continue its assault on Iran
00:04:48
for four to five weeks if necessary. Um,
00:04:50
he keeps changing his tune. We'll get to
00:04:52
that in a second. The US and Israel
00:04:53
began strikes on Saturday, killing
00:04:55
Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, as
00:04:57
well as several senior officials. Trump
00:05:00
has justified the attack on Iran, which
00:05:02
did not receive congressional approval,
00:05:03
by citing quote imminent threats, though
00:05:05
he had not provided evidence that it
00:05:07
looks like he doesn't have any. Iran is
00:05:09
retaliating all over the place with
00:05:11
missiles and drones targeting Israel,
00:05:12
the US bases in Gulf countries, Dubai,
00:05:15
all manner of of places. Four American
00:05:18
service members have been killed, and
00:05:19
Trump says there will likely be more,
00:05:21
but quote, "That's the way it is." Uh,
00:05:24
kind of a callous way to put it. Um,
00:05:27
three US jets were also shot down in a
00:05:29
friendly fire incident over Kuwait. The
00:05:32
crew members got out safely. Thank
00:05:33
goodness. These are $90 million jets.
00:05:36
That's $270 million. Uh, Trump has
00:05:38
justified the attack on Iran, which did
00:05:40
not receive congressional approval by
00:05:43
citing imminent threats, though he has
00:05:44
not provided evidence and and many many
00:05:47
people who've been briefed on it,
00:05:48
including Republicans, said there wasn't
00:05:50
evidence of that. That said, a lot of
00:05:53
people are celebrating the death of the
00:05:54
Ayatollah. Um, Defense Secretary Pete
00:05:57
Hegaz held a presser a little while ago.
00:05:59
He said this uh is not so-called regime
00:06:02
change war, but a regime sure did
00:06:04
change. Not clear if either of them is
00:06:06
true because Trump has talked about
00:06:08
regime change and it doesn't appear as
00:06:10
the regime has changed. Hegex was also
00:06:13
uh asked about the timeline. Let's
00:06:15
listen to what he said if we can hear
00:06:17
him directly.
00:06:18
>> To the media outlets and political left
00:06:20
screaming endless wars, stop. This is
00:06:23
not Iraq.
00:06:25
This is not endless. I was there for
00:06:28
both. Our generation knows better and so
00:06:31
does this president. He called the last
00:06:34
20 years of nation building wars dumb.
00:06:37
And he's right. This is the opposite.
00:06:40
>> Well, it's nice to hear from a stomach
00:06:42
model who doesn't know what he's talking
00:06:43
about. But I also want to note about
00:06:45
this uh interview I did with California
00:06:47
Governor Gavin Newsome over the weekend
00:06:48
for the latest episode of On with Caris
00:06:50
Fischer. Um, it's really interesting
00:06:52
because one of the issues was all the
00:06:54
misinformation
00:06:55
uh online. It was really quite, it
00:06:58
wasn't just something you tweeted, but
00:06:59
it was all over the place misreporting
00:07:01
where he stands on all this. Let's
00:07:03
listen to what he told me. And this was
00:07:04
just a small piece of it cuz he went on
00:07:06
for a while decrying Donald Trump's
00:07:08
action. Let's go.
00:07:09
>> And that's Donald Trump, the chaos
00:07:11
president, this wrecking ball president
00:07:14
across the board. Destruction is not
00:07:17
strength.
00:07:19
And once again, we've seen him destroy
00:07:21
not our not only our allies in
00:07:23
relationship to the rest of the world,
00:07:26
but we're seeing him destroy any
00:07:27
capacity to explain fundamentally what
00:07:31
the core American interest is at this
00:07:34
moment to declare war, to go to war with
00:07:38
a regime. And all of this is playing out
00:07:40
in real time.
00:07:41
>> Um, news posted on X over the weekend,
00:07:43
the corrupt or repressive Iranian regime
00:07:45
must never have nuclear weapons.
00:07:46
leadership of Iran must go, but that
00:07:48
doesn't justify the president of the
00:07:49
United States engaging in a legal,
00:07:50
dangerous war. Very similar to what
00:07:53
Senator Warner said. All all the
00:07:55
senators pretty much said, "This guy
00:07:56
deserved to die, and at the same time,
00:07:58
this seems like a chaotic mess." Um,
00:08:01
let's let's talk about a little bit
00:08:03
about it and and especially the economic
00:08:05
impact that the fighting has effectively
00:08:08
shut down the straight of Hormuz, which
00:08:10
carries 1/5if of the world's oil supply.
00:08:12
As is recording, oil prices are up about
00:08:14
7%, gas futures jumped as much as 9%. Uh
00:08:17
spike in energy places, supply chain
00:08:19
strain, broader ripple effects across
00:08:20
the global economy, especially because
00:08:22
of the uncertainty. And the last thing I
00:08:24
would note um uh is that and and it's
00:08:27
interesting because Trump does respond
00:08:29
to this is that um there's much
00:08:32
reporting including in the Washington
00:08:33
Post um about how he he was convinced to
00:08:36
do it through uh Muhammad bin Salman and
00:08:40
Benjamin Netanyahu and even JD Vance and
00:08:42
General Kaine did not want to do this
00:08:44
but here we are. So what do you talk a
00:08:47
little bit about the where it's going to
00:08:49
go from here and your thoughts?
00:08:51
Well, the the honest answer is I have no
00:08:53
idea or I I have a a vision for where
00:08:56
you hope it goes, but I'm sympathetic to
00:09:00
Governors Newsome and Senator Warner.
00:09:02
the notion that we're going to end up
00:09:06
after Trump is gone,
00:09:08
we have to be thoughtful about how we
00:09:12
improve the tensil strength of our
00:09:13
democracy by stopping the slow but
00:09:15
steady leak of power from Congress which
00:09:18
is the people to the president under the
00:09:21
oposis or cold comfort that they will
00:09:23
stick to certain norms because
00:09:25
effectively a president should not be
00:09:28
able military action you can maybe
00:09:30
justify but this is war. And I'm
00:09:33
sympathetic to
00:09:34
>> use the word war. Oh, go ahead.
00:09:36
>> Pardon?
00:09:36
>> He used the word war.
00:09:37
>> I know this is war. That it is war. And
00:09:39
I'm sympathetic to the notion that the
00:09:41
reason we have 535 members of Congress
00:09:44
representing, you know, two two per
00:09:47
state in the Senate and one for every
00:09:48
750,000 people is the American people
00:09:50
are supposed to have a say. But
00:09:52
Democrats, it's 7% are actually in favor
00:09:55
of this. So there's going to need to be
00:09:58
the best thing we could do coming out or
00:09:59
one of the best things I think coming
00:10:00
out of the Trump administration and this
00:10:03
highlights that is to have structural
00:10:04
reform around gerrymandering, citizens
00:10:07
united and that Congress has to be
00:10:10
involved or briefed or that we have to
00:10:12
go back to this notion where only
00:10:14
Congress can decide if in fact we go to
00:10:17
we go to war. Now where could this go?
00:10:19
As you know, I'm in favor, loosely
00:10:22
speaking, around this action because I
00:10:24
always like to ask like to ask myself
00:10:26
what could go right.
00:10:28
>> Iran is 90 million people, sits on the
00:10:30
second largest natural gas reserves, the
00:10:32
third largest oil reserves, incredible
00:10:35
science, incredible universities,
00:10:37
incredible entrepreneurial spirit.
00:10:39
Actually quite a nonseular.
00:10:42
>> It was, that's for sure.
00:10:44
>> Non sec. Well, I would argue it's
00:10:46
anyways fairly non-seular. a lot less
00:10:49
anti-West than people have been led to
00:10:52
believe by what I think is one of the
00:10:53
most oppressive, brutal regimes in
00:10:56
history. So, what could go right? You
00:10:59
could have one of the largest economies
00:11:02
in the Middle East become more pro-
00:11:05
West. It's been punching below its
00:11:06
weight class for 20 or 30 years now
00:11:09
because of poor technology and
00:11:10
sanctions. you could immediately see it
00:11:13
uh come up and be an economic power that
00:11:15
is pro- west, pro- trading, pro-
00:11:17
capitalist. What effectively might be
00:11:20
the low one of the biggest tax cuts in
00:11:22
history if you didn't if you saw more
00:11:25
consistent flows of oil and technology
00:11:27
and a great trading partner. I actually
00:11:28
think Europe would be the biggest
00:11:29
beneficiary
00:11:31
>> and turn what has been the primary agent
00:11:33
of chaos and terror
00:11:35
>> in an unstable region into something
00:11:37
resembling I don't even call it pro-
00:11:39
west but neutral west. So I think
00:11:42
there's a lot that could go right here
00:11:43
and I think the risk assessment provided
00:11:45
to the president in my view had a lot of
00:11:48
asymmetric upside. Now having said that
00:11:51
what they missed here was part of the
00:11:53
PAL doctrine and that is you have to
00:11:55
have clearly articulated objectives
00:11:58
>> or plans for next beyond
00:12:00
>> well they haven't they and and to your
00:12:02
point they just haven't been able to
00:12:04
articulate in the last 24 hours what is
00:12:07
the offramp and the objective here is it
00:12:09
regime change is it a more friendly
00:12:11
regime is it I mean what exactly
00:12:14
>> and all that you're not going to get
00:12:16
>> this notion that all of a sudden we're
00:12:18
going to provide air
00:12:19
and the Iranian people are going to rise
00:12:21
up and overtake 150,000 members of the
00:12:24
IRGC who are deeply integrated into
00:12:26
>> they have outside plans. There's some
00:12:28
great reporting on this by the way by by
00:12:30
legitimate news organizations. They have
00:12:32
h they have contingency plans in place
00:12:35
for what happens if the dies and they're
00:12:38
carrying them out.
00:12:39
>> But but we okay but in Syria, Libya and
00:12:43
Iraq
00:12:45
uh these were autocracies with a central
00:12:47
figure head. The RGC is very deeply
00:12:50
embedded into the economy.
00:12:51
>> Yeah.
00:12:52
>> So when your mortgage and your salary is
00:12:54
being paid by the RGC, it's not like,
00:12:57
oh, okay, the top guy Assad is gone and
00:12:59
boom, it's it's a new administration. So
00:13:02
there's a lot about the ground game.
00:13:03
There's a lot about intelligence assets.
00:13:06
And if they had said, we are going to,
00:13:09
for example, a potential offramp. We're
00:13:11
going to neuter their navy. We're going
00:13:12
to diminish their air defense
00:13:14
capabilities. We're going to make sure
00:13:16
for sure there is absolutely no ability
00:13:18
to create or enrich nuclear stockpiles
00:13:21
and then we're going to leave it up to
00:13:22
the Iranian people. That's technically
00:13:23
an offramp. But I have seen in the last
00:13:26
24 hours them talk about regime change.
00:13:28
No, this isn't regime change. So they
00:13:31
haven't been able to articulate what is
00:13:33
next.
00:13:34
>> Well, I don't I don't believe they
00:13:35
thought about it. I mean, one of the
00:13:37
things that a lot of people are pointing
00:13:38
out is is the involvement of Netanyahu
00:13:40
and uh the head of Saudi Arabia who
00:13:43
publicly had said he was against this
00:13:44
but privately was quite for it and
00:13:46
pressing for it. The linkage between the
00:13:48
corruption with the Trump family and
00:13:50
this coin operated presidency that I
00:13:52
talk about all the time is really very
00:13:54
clear because most I would say they're
00:13:57
trying to come up with a story after the
00:13:59
fact. Oh, it hasn't worked. It isn't an
00:14:01
endless war. Although it feels kind of
00:14:03
like an endless war. It feels very
00:14:05
Bushian, right? Did you you definitely
00:14:07
had echoes of that? It feel he I think
00:14:10
he thought it was going to be like
00:14:11
Venezuela, right? That it was like just
00:14:13
take that guy out. And by the way, he's
00:14:15
in business with the Maduro
00:14:16
administration. He didn't regime change
00:14:18
that place at all. Like speaking of
00:14:20
regime change,
00:14:21
>> this is much more complicated.
00:14:22
>> I agree, but I think he thought it was
00:14:24
like that.
00:14:24
>> No, I'm I'm agreeing with you. This is
00:14:26
not take out Maduro and and this is much
00:14:30
more uh
00:14:31
>> he just has has cowed the regime into
00:14:34
it. But it's the same regime in this
00:14:36
case. It's really fascinating how they
00:14:38
have um put themselves into this economy
00:14:41
in a way that's very hard to um to to
00:14:46
get them out. Right. Exact. You know, of
00:14:48
course, this is their point of these
00:14:50
very corrupt and I would say evil mullas
00:14:53
in in Iran. Um, but one of the things
00:14:56
that's fascinating to me is one the the
00:14:58
continued corruption of Trump's family
00:15:00
and Trump with with in this region and
00:15:03
second of all that he keeps calling have
00:15:05
you noticed he's calling all I'm waiting
00:15:07
for a call from him myself like he
00:15:09
called Jake Tapper he called um you know
00:15:11
a bunch of John Carl he's called all the
00:15:13
regular old media people essentially or
00:15:16
the people he he decries all the time
00:15:18
and it seems like he's workshopping
00:15:20
different reasons like it's that's so
00:15:23
>> he's trying to trying to figure
00:15:25
But there is again what could go right
00:15:29
here. The most powerful instinct is
00:15:30
survival. And what we pulled off here
00:15:33
and when I say we I actually think it
00:15:35
was more the MOSA than than us. We
00:15:38
effectively and I don't think people
00:15:39
really register how profound this was.
00:15:42
Within about two hours we took out the
00:15:45
equivalent of the president, the
00:15:47
secretary of defense and the head of the
00:15:49
joint chiefs.
00:15:50
>> Right. They were all in the same place.
00:15:52
But yes. and and then and what has got
00:15:55
to be the strategic mistake of I would
00:15:58
say the last five years other than the
00:16:00
decision by Hamas to go into Israel um
00:16:03
geopolitically they started uh attacking
00:16:06
civilian targets within the
00:16:08
>> idea fared Zakaria noted that this
00:16:11
mistake
00:16:12
>> I mean that's just okay you want to
00:16:14
isolate yourself from your from who
00:16:17
should naturally be sympathetic to you
00:16:20
now the the going back to this notion of
00:16:22
survival instinct At some point you got
00:16:24
to think the next level down and I don't
00:16:25
know if it's 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000
00:16:28
or 150,000 IRGC say okay we too really
00:16:32
like our families in this thing called
00:16:33
life maybe we need to come to some sort
00:16:35
of accommodation
00:16:37
with with the US and the west so
00:16:40
>> that would require as you know boots on
00:16:43
the ground and Trump didn't even roll
00:16:45
that out again like this I here's what
00:16:47
really drives me crazy this idea they're
00:16:49
like it's not endless war the other
00:16:50
presidents were just dumb It's the same
00:16:53
thing. You you know they're they're just
00:16:55
trying very hard to spin it. And by the
00:16:56
way, you you noted a poll that half
00:16:58
Americans support it. It's actually not
00:17:00
the case. Many of the polls are showing
00:17:01
25%. You should
00:17:03
>> I didn't say that. 55% of Republicans
00:17:05
and it's about 30% are indifferent. Now
00:17:07
amongst Democrats, it's 7%. And I'm
00:17:11
amongst the 7% of Democrats who support
00:17:14
this. But it's a little bit different
00:17:16
because okay what they're hoping for and
00:17:17
maybe it's it's a it's a hallucination
00:17:20
that it's not boots on the ground that
00:17:21
it's that it's sandals and sneakers and
00:17:23
slippers that the Iranian people
00:17:25
>> right
00:17:25
>> based on the problem is the 30,000
00:17:28
people that have been mowed down were
00:17:29
the front lines they were the Marines
00:17:30
they were the shock troops who were
00:17:32
willing to risk their lives
00:17:33
>> right
00:17:34
>> so the reality is kind of what the
00:17:36
offramp will be or how this plays out
00:17:39
>> probably plays out in the next week in
00:17:41
terms of the Iranian populace's ability
00:17:44
to fment and change on the ground
00:17:45
because the American public does not
00:17:47
have any appetite for boots on the
00:17:49
ground. But what I I talked to a senator
00:17:51
this morning, I'm like, isn't a
00:17:52
reasonable offramp that you would say,
00:17:55
okay, we're going to diminish their
00:17:56
ability to wreak havoc to a point, you
00:17:58
know, 0.1. We're going to control the
00:17:59
skies. We're going to diminish their
00:18:00
navy. We're not going to we're going to
00:18:01
clear out their mind sweepers from the
00:18:03
Straits of Hormuz. We're going to
00:18:05
absolutely ensure there is zero
00:18:06
capability nuclear. And then we're going
00:18:08
to declare
00:18:08
>> you said was obliterated in June. Just
00:18:10
let's point that out.
00:18:11
>> Fair point. Why did again more
00:18:13
inconsistency. Why did we need to go
00:18:15
back in to to diminish our nuclear
00:18:17
capacity when you said it was done 7
00:18:19
months ago?
00:18:20
>> So there is inconsistent messaging.
00:18:23
>> But I think the
00:18:24
>> in my opinion the opportunities here to
00:18:26
diminish the capacity to continue to
00:18:30
levy this depravity and oppression
00:18:31
amongst its populace and potentially
00:18:33
liberate one of the great cultures in
00:18:36
civilization's history that sits on
00:18:38
unbelievable economic potential economic
00:18:40
prosperity.
00:18:41
it there is a real potential upside
00:18:44
here.
00:18:44
>> You know where else there's a potential
00:18:45
of upside is Ukraine. Same thing like
00:18:47
this. So what's really interesting to
00:18:50
hear is he yells at Europe for not
00:18:51
pulling their fair share in defense.
00:18:53
Fine. I I can see that argument even
00:18:56
though he makes it in the crude and
00:18:57
repulsive way. Uh why isn't uh why isn't
00:19:01
Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this?
00:19:03
We're doing their cop duty and we happen
00:19:05
to have a corrupt cop on the beat.
00:19:07
>> Oh, Israel sacrif sacrifice. I'm talking
00:19:10
about you don't hear the same language,
00:19:12
right? Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia
00:19:14
wanted this to happen, they should pay
00:19:15
for it. Like, if that's really the
00:19:17
thing, why do I have to pay as an
00:19:19
American taxpayer
00:19:21
$270 million for three planes? Like,
00:19:23
that kind of stuff. And so, and why
00:19:25
aren't why isn't this money deployed
00:19:27
elsewhere that I think isn't our not me,
00:19:29
I'm not running this show, but like why
00:19:31
isn't Ukraine the same thing? Like
00:19:34
that's that's what's really interesting
00:19:36
because there's a country that is full
00:19:38
of like economic talk about economic
00:19:40
opportunities. Same thing. Let me focus
00:19:43
you on the toll on the US economy
00:19:45
because all these like a a free well
00:19:47
first of all every attempt at regime
00:19:49
change in the Middle East has failed
00:19:50
almost miserably for the United States
00:19:53
or or a version of regime change
00:19:55
Afghanistan everywhere everywhere we go.
00:19:58
Um
00:19:58
>> well I did to be fair I did work in the
00:20:00
Balkans. We have had successful
00:20:01
interventions in Kuwait. We successfully
00:20:04
repelled the difference there is we did
00:20:05
it multilaterally which
00:20:07
>> that's right
00:20:07
>> he's stupid to do here already Britain
00:20:09
our closest ally is humming and hawing
00:20:11
about letting us use their airfields
00:20:13
yeah
00:20:13
>> he wants to go it alone which is stupid
00:20:15
anyway I interrupted you talking about
00:20:16
the economics here
00:20:17
>> so I want to know about the e the effect
00:20:19
on the economy because one of the things
00:20:20
because these when people start a war it
00:20:23
tends to be in the 60s period right it's
00:20:26
25 and I get that the democrats don't
00:20:28
like it but in a 25 is a bad place to
00:20:30
start when you're doing a war which if
00:20:33
you remember remember the stud Scud and
00:20:35
everyone being vaguely excited when they
00:20:37
were doing the I mean my even myself
00:20:40
which is grotesque because I I I now
00:20:42
have children I'm like oh no no no but
00:20:45
um talk about the toll in the economy
00:20:47
because every and and the MAGA people
00:20:50
green um Carlson
00:20:53
more even more heinous people are
00:20:55
talking about this is not what we voted
00:20:58
for right this is not and and they're
00:21:00
trying very desperately to pretend it's
00:21:02
not an endless war. It's whatever word
00:21:04
they're going to use um is not going to
00:21:07
work with these people. They they he's
00:21:09
already struck seven countries, seven
00:21:11
events. Like he's done more war like
00:21:14
they it was interesting because Hillary
00:21:15
Clinton was so prey about exactly what
00:21:17
he would do here. He seems to like and
00:21:19
have an appetite for military action
00:21:22
because everything's going so badly for
00:21:24
him. So talk about the effect on the US
00:21:26
economy, oil prices, right? inflation
00:21:29
um more danger for the US in terms of of
00:21:33
attacks on our our own soil from the
00:21:35
Iranians. The CR I mean if you back
00:21:37
these Iranians into a corner they may do
00:21:39
something really dire here in this
00:21:41
country. What is the toll in the US
00:21:43
economy and let me uh add in that people
00:21:46
were using this word to cash in on
00:21:48
online betting markets which was
00:21:49
repulsive. it. Uh, Kalshi reportedly saw
00:21:52
$36 million in bet volume related to
00:21:54
whether or not there will be regime
00:21:55
change in Iran. On Poly Market, 529
00:21:58
million was traded on contracts tied to
00:22:00
the timing of the strikes and some of
00:22:02
them seem rather suspect. Poly Market
00:22:04
defended its decision to allow betting
00:22:06
on the Star War saying it's invaluable
00:22:07
source of news and answers. It feels
00:22:09
like profiteering to me. Um, but talk a
00:22:12
little bit about the impact on the
00:22:13
economy. What what's next if under think
00:22:17
of three two scenarios? what's next for
00:22:20
the economy.
00:22:20
>> Just just to go in reverse order, I
00:22:22
actually would argue that that we have
00:22:26
diminished I mean you have what is um
00:22:29
what was the superpower in the region
00:22:31
with their proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, the
00:22:33
Houthis wreaking havoc economically and
00:22:37
in terms of oppression of different
00:22:39
people in the region and their
00:22:41
organizing principle was death to Israel
00:22:43
and death to America. And I would argue
00:22:45
that even if we don't have the regime
00:22:48
change or a quoteunquote liberated uh
00:22:50
capitalist westfriendly Iran that their
00:22:53
ability to strike at us and our proxies
00:22:56
overseas and our bases is actually been
00:22:58
diminished that that they're not now we
00:23:01
need to be more worried. I think we need
00:23:03
to actually
00:23:04
>> be less worried. There are two scenarios
00:23:06
here. One scenario is we end up in
00:23:07
another forever war that explodes our
00:23:09
deficits and we keep incrementally
00:23:11
making excuses for you know trying to
00:23:13
impose democracy which is an oxymoron
00:23:17
and oil prices the straight of horm gets
00:23:19
gets blocked off and oil prices
00:23:21
skyrocket now to a certain extent if you
00:23:23
wanted to be really mavavelian that
00:23:25
doesn't hurt us that much because we are
00:23:27
energy independent who this really is
00:23:29
hurting both Venezuela and Iran is China
00:23:33
80% of Iran's oil was going to China the
00:23:36
same with Venezuela. So, we can survive
00:23:38
an oil shock, but you could have you
00:23:41
could have an increase in deficits of a
00:23:43
forever war, uh disruption in supply
00:23:46
chain, uh straining our straining our
00:23:49
relationships with the allies. I
00:23:51
personally think there's more asymmetric
00:23:52
upside where we unlock
00:23:55
um uh stronger oil flows, better
00:23:57
technology, a potential trading partner
00:24:00
for Europe, for Europe and the US. And I
00:24:03
would argue I would bet that I believe
00:24:05
in 6 months that oil prices will be
00:24:08
lower uh than they are today. Now to
00:24:10
your point about cost and economics, I
00:24:13
am sympathetic to the left's view, many
00:24:15
people on the left, that these forever
00:24:17
wars and foreign intervention and
00:24:19
imperialist
00:24:20
imposing our own values on other
00:24:22
cultures and other nations is not only
00:24:24
uh wrong, it is just really
00:24:26
expensive. I'm sympathetic to that. What
00:24:28
I'm not sympathetic to,
00:24:30
>> can I make a correction? It's Charlie
00:24:31
Kirk talked about this. The right, this
00:24:33
has been an animating issue.
00:24:36
>> I was just about to get there, Cara. The
00:24:37
right has a very strong isolationist
00:24:39
spent. What is inconsistent for me? It
00:24:42
is consistent to say, "Let's focus on
00:24:45
let's focus on our problems
00:24:46
domestically. Let's spend money
00:24:48
domestically. Let's not run up deficits
00:24:50
with tax cuts and forever wars in a
00:24:52
macho military. and let's stay out of
00:24:54
other people's knitting recognizing that
00:24:55
we respect the right their right to to
00:24:58
do what you know to govern themselves
00:24:59
and and and
00:25:01
shape their own future. What is totally
00:25:03
inconsistent is the far right or the
00:25:05
rights isolationist rhetoric while
00:25:07
approving a $1.1 trillion military
00:25:10
budget. Because my view is the only
00:25:12
rationale for having a $1.1 trillion
00:25:14
military budget is quite frankly is if
00:25:17
at a on regular basis you're going to go
00:25:19
on your toes because if we don't want to
00:25:21
get involved in this kind of foreign
00:25:23
adventures or misadventures, whatever
00:25:24
you want to characterize it, there's no
00:25:26
risk of Canada invading us. Let's take
00:25:28
our military budget down to 300 billion
00:25:30
and pay off our deficit. So I've never
00:25:32
understood the rights fascination with
00:25:34
ridiculous military spending and then
00:25:36
this isolationist complexion. I
00:25:39
personally think the upside over the
00:25:40
medium and the long term here
00:25:41
economically with a peaceful Middle East
00:25:44
once its primary sponsor of terror is
00:25:46
neutered here. I think it actually I
00:25:48
think this over the medium and the long
00:25:50
term could be really good for Europe.
00:25:52
And if we could figure out a way to end
00:25:53
the war in Ukraine, figure out a way to
00:25:56
have a neutral west. uh Iran, I think
00:26:00
you're going to see the largest tax cut
00:26:02
in history because I think the flows of
00:26:03
oil will take g will cut oil probably in
00:26:06
half and you'll have an incredible
00:26:08
trading partner with what is one of the
00:26:09
most productive capitalist in many ways
00:26:12
societies
00:26:13
in history and that's the Persian
00:26:15
people.
00:26:16
>> Yeah, that is true. I I understand one
00:26:19
of the things that troubles me is this
00:26:21
the one is that he really doesn't seem
00:26:23
to have a plan and he's the president,
00:26:25
right? and that people within his
00:26:27
administration,
00:26:27
>> he'll call you and ask you for your
00:26:28
plan.
00:26:30
>> My plan is for you to step down, but
00:26:31
then I would get JD Vance, but that's my
00:26:34
suggestion. Um, and you should go off
00:26:36
and spend all the money you've stolen
00:26:38
from the American people. But, um, but
00:26:41
one of the um, one of the things that I
00:26:43
think about a lot is what that that this
00:26:46
is done in such a haphazard way without
00:26:48
the involvement of Congress, right? That
00:26:50
really is troublesome. and that these
00:26:53
these Republicans who were against these
00:26:55
things immediately get in line. Now
00:26:58
look, Lindsey Graham, that southern
00:26:59
bell, has always been wanting to do
00:27:02
this, right? And now he wants to go from
00:27:04
he is a southern bell.
00:27:06
>> And uh and he's uh he's he's wanted to
00:27:09
do this. He wants to do Cuba next. Let's
00:27:10
do Cuba next. Right? That's the whole
00:27:12
thing. This is also he just in his
00:27:15
mistaken
00:27:16
>> Cuba isn't blinding its women. It's not
00:27:18
hanging teenage girls and then
00:27:20
sanctioning rape of them. He said Cuba.
00:27:23
He did. And
00:27:23
>> yeah, I agree. No, I'm I'm saying that
00:27:25
makes in my opinion, as much as a war
00:27:27
hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to
00:27:29
invade Cuba.
00:27:30
>> Well, I think that's next. It seems like
00:27:32
they're just going to get bored over
00:27:33
here and come over here. But this is
00:27:34
something Lindsey Graham has wanted
00:27:36
forever in his mis uh in his endless and
00:27:39
sad attempt to be more masculine in some
00:27:42
fashion. So, fine, fine, Lindsay. That's
00:27:45
fine. But one of the things that really
00:27:47
drives me crazy is these people are so
00:27:50
um they shift these people say one thing
00:27:53
one week and then shift it the next
00:27:55
week. Like look the I know you like to
00:27:58
attack the left but they're sticking to
00:27:59
their guns on these kind of things.
00:28:01
They're still
00:28:01
>> I like to attack what?
00:28:02
>> Oh, the left a lot. But the right just
00:28:04
shifts it. Like it's like we're against
00:28:06
it. We're against it. We're against it.
00:28:07
Charlie Kirk said let's not be dragged
00:28:10
into this by so and so. It's let's focus
00:28:12
here. Okay, then let's cut our military
00:28:14
budget to 300 billion.
00:28:16
>> I get it. I get it. But I just don't see
00:28:18
why they don't they shift this way. It's
00:28:20
really it's it's sad because I like when
00:28:23
there's argument over what we should do
00:28:26
here in a way that everybody gets
00:28:28
>> and it's meant to be a discourse in the
00:28:30
Congress. I agree with that.
00:28:32
>> Barry Goldwater Barry Goldwater called
00:28:34
this in the 70s. He said that we have
00:28:36
become dangerously used to a slow leak
00:28:38
of power from from the co-equal branches
00:28:40
of government and Congress to the
00:28:42
president. And what kept that mostly in
00:28:43
check was a series of norms where the
00:28:46
president would go and inform the Senate
00:28:48
intelligence committee or the the
00:28:49
defense,
00:28:50
>> you know, the the people in the the
00:28:53
people on the defense committee that he
00:28:54
would give them a heads up. He'd invite
00:28:56
them to the White House and say, "This
00:28:58
is what we're thinking. What do you
00:28:59
think?" Those norms are gone. And so
00:29:02
there's got to be unless there is
00:29:03
structural reform around what it means
00:29:05
to have co-equal brown. Republicans are
00:29:07
resigning from Congress because they're
00:29:08
like why the am I here?
00:29:09
>> Yeah. Yeah.
00:29:11
>> The speaker of the house Yeah.
00:29:13
>> is not Mike Johnson. He's the speaker of
00:29:15
the white house. He's there to run rough
00:29:16
shaw
00:29:17
>> over people in the minority party are
00:29:20
used to getting
00:29:22
over. They're used to having no
00:29:23
power. But Republicans are like, "Let me
00:29:25
get this. I stuck around to be in the
00:29:27
majority such that I could represent my
00:29:29
people and get policies through and I'm
00:29:30
not even being consulted on this
00:29:32
>> No. And on the on the Democratic, I'd
00:29:34
say centrist conservative. I have never
00:29:36
seen Senator Warner who I consider
00:29:38
pretty cons pretty like moderate more
00:29:40
than I mean I think he's often we often
00:29:42
disagree on a lot of stuff. He was
00:29:44
incandescent. I you know because he he
00:29:47
sees these things. He knows he has so
00:29:49
much experience in Senate intelligence
00:29:51
etc etc. And to watch people who had
00:29:53
said the very opposite shift was really
00:29:57
something because at the very bottom of
00:29:59
this, it puts people's lives at risk
00:30:02
unnecessarily. And not just American
00:30:04
troops, which is terrible. It's people
00:30:07
on the ground there, Iranian citizens,
00:30:10
which American uh troops and I worry
00:30:14
about American, you know, people
00:30:16
attacking here. And it just creates a
00:30:19
situation that when you there's just a
00:30:22
this guy this guy's got to have a better
00:30:24
reason than to call someone and have a
00:30:26
different reason every minute. And we'll
00:30:27
see its effect on the the stock market's
00:30:29
not loving this at all. Um but we'll
00:30:32
see. We'll see where it goes.
00:30:33
>> But you brought up Kelshi.
00:30:34
>> Yeah.
00:30:34
>> And what's fascinating about these
00:30:36
things is they tend to be right that
00:30:37
there's a wisdom of the crowds. And when
00:30:40
you have Senator Warner who has just had
00:30:43
a lot, this is not his first rodeo. has
00:30:45
had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs
00:30:48
come before him and explain their plans.
00:30:51
And when you have uh Senator Mark Kelly
00:30:54
who's actually flown these missions, if
00:30:57
you don't if you don't take advantage of
00:30:59
the benefit of their insight, even if
00:31:01
they don't agree with you, you're not
00:31:03
taking advantage of the greatest depth
00:31:05
the greatest the greatest IP depth of
00:31:08
knowledge and experience in military
00:31:09
history. And that's amongst quite
00:31:11
frankly many of our members of Congress.
00:31:14
If if you're not bringing Senator
00:31:15
Representative Seth Molton in and
00:31:18
saying, "Hey, when you were on the
00:31:19
ground in Iraq, I mean, instead we're
00:31:22
we're consulting with a senator from
00:31:25
Florida, a former Fox TV host
00:31:30
>> who was
00:31:30
>> and a reality game show host. They're
00:31:33
making these decisions
00:31:34
>> and and the FBI is being run by a guy
00:31:36
who likes to party in the middle of a
00:31:38
possible terror terrorist action in this
00:31:41
country. We're they're we're they're
00:31:43
just going to make and this is I always
00:31:45
like to try and reverse engineer to a a
00:31:48
personal learning here. One of my
00:31:50
biggest flaws biggest flaws as a man is
00:31:53
I thought that masculinity and
00:31:54
leadership was making a quick survey of
00:31:57
the situation and then making a decision
00:31:59
and then it was my job to talk everyone
00:32:01
into my decision. No, it's not.
00:32:03
Leadership is listening and occasionally
00:32:07
going, "Oh, I got it wrong. We
00:32:09
need to switch course." I don't make
00:32:12
now, I didn't learn this until I was
00:32:13
literally 50. I don't make a big
00:32:15
decision personally, financially,
00:32:18
professionally without talking to three
00:32:20
or four really smart people
00:32:22
because you can't read the label from
00:32:24
inside of the bottle. And the US
00:32:26
Congress is full of some of the most
00:32:28
impressive, experienced, smartest people
00:32:30
in the world.
00:32:31
>> And beyond that, there's people
00:32:32
>> and also they have this incredible task
00:32:35
of representing their constituency to
00:32:37
not check in with them. I I think
00:32:39
Senator Warner is ep apoplelectic
00:32:41
because he's like, "For God's sakes, we
00:32:44
can save you from yourself."
00:32:45
>> That's right. That's right. He wasn't
00:32:46
out of ego. I just I've never seen him
00:32:48
do that. It was really interesting.
00:32:49
Anyway, we have to move on. This is a
00:32:51
developing story. We'll see what
00:32:53
happens. This seems like a very, as
00:32:54
Gavin Newsome said, a chaotic White
00:32:56
House. It might be trying to um get us
00:32:59
away from the Epstein files or other
00:33:01
issues at home. Um we didn't even talk
00:33:03
about the distraction, but we need to
00:33:05
move on. Uh we'll go on a quick break.
00:33:07
We come back. Trump targets Anthropic,
00:33:09
another incredible tech company in what
00:33:11
former Trump official calls attempted
00:33:13
corporate murder.
00:33:15
>> Support for the show comes from
00:33:16
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00:33:19
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00:34:19
>> Scott, we're back. President Trump
00:34:20
ordered federal agencies to stop using
00:34:22
anthropic after it did not come uh to a
00:34:25
deal with the Pentagon on safety. The
00:34:26
Defense Department will phase out the
00:34:28
use of anthropic products over the next
00:34:29
6 months, which will, I will tell you,
00:34:31
hurt national security. Anthropic plans
00:34:33
to challenge a supply chain designation
00:34:35
in court. Good for them. When it comes
00:34:36
to the app store, Anthropic is winning.
00:34:38
Claude is the number one spot in the
00:34:39
Apple's free apps as we tape. Anthropic
00:34:42
also faced a major outage on Monday with
00:34:44
the company saying it's been dealing
00:34:46
with quote unprecedented demand. Uh,
00:34:48
meanwhile, Open AI, of course, Sam ever
00:34:51
the opportunist. Open AAI Sam Alman
00:34:54
reached an agreement with the Pentagon.
00:34:55
The company claims it found a way to
00:34:57
ensure its technologies would adhere to
00:34:58
its safety principles by installing
00:35:00
technical guardrails. However, when Sam
00:35:02
Alman was asked on asked whether he
00:35:04
worried about there be future disputes
00:35:05
with the Pentagon over what's legal, he
00:35:07
responded, "Yes, I am." "Oh my god, Sam,
00:35:10
I got to tell you, you need to stop
00:35:11
talking." A former Trump official called
00:35:13
Enthropic order attempted corporate
00:35:15
murder. Um it's uh it's the backdrop of
00:35:18
OpenAI raising 110 billion its latest
00:35:20
funding round, including $50 billion
00:35:22
from Amazon and $30 billion from both
00:35:24
Nvidia and Soft Bank. in these continue
00:35:26
roundtpping kind of deals. Um I I I I
00:35:30
read a lot this weekend about this and
00:35:32
one of the people involved was a guy
00:35:34
named Emil Michael who used to be an
00:35:36
executive at Uber who was possibly one
00:35:38
of the most bullying and awful
00:35:40
executives and full of all manner of um
00:35:43
bad behaviors. uh when there I I he left
00:35:47
the company. We wrote some stories of
00:35:49
this thing he was involved in that was
00:35:51
just so um not a good behavior I would
00:35:55
say. Um I have spent time with him. He's
00:35:58
a he he was the one that was was was
00:36:00
negotiating this. Uh not a surprise. Um
00:36:03
he kept calling Dario a Modi from
00:36:05
anthropic godlike god. He thinks he's
00:36:08
god or whatever. I've never met anyone
00:36:10
who thinks he's god more than a Michael.
00:36:12
And he's usually a toad to more powerful
00:36:14
people. in this case, Pete Hegsath. Um,
00:36:17
anyway, uh, it seems a ridiculous
00:36:20
overreach on the behalf of government.
00:36:22
Probably anthropic will win. I think it
00:36:24
probably will benefit from this as
00:36:26
you've noted many times. Uh, any more
00:36:28
thoughts on this? I don't think we're
00:36:29
any safer as a people for having done
00:36:32
this.
00:36:33
>> I don't I think what people miss is that
00:36:36
over the last 12 months out of 23
00:36:38
markets, we're the 21st best performing
00:36:41
or the third worst.
00:36:42
>> Yep. And what has changed? We've had
00:36:45
incredible innovation.
00:36:46
>> Is up 50,000. Good.
00:36:48
>> Sorry.
00:36:48
>> We've had inc. We still have incredible
00:36:50
innovation. We dominate the most
00:36:52
tectonic shift in technology. The thing
00:36:54
that's changing is I believe we're
00:36:57
experiencing a rotation out of US stocks
00:37:00
and a compression of multiples. And the
00:37:02
reason why is the following. The
00:37:04
underpinnings of why so much capital
00:37:06
flows into the US from every other
00:37:08
market in the world is our incredible IP
00:37:11
developed mostly through funding of
00:37:12
research at universities. An incredibly
00:37:14
risk aggressive culture based on
00:37:16
immigrants who take huge risk to get
00:37:18
here. Um uh and also I think more than
00:37:22
anything probably it or chicken and egg
00:37:26
it attracts the deepest pools of capital
00:37:28
in history. There's $5 million in
00:37:30
venture capital for every startup in the
00:37:32
US. There's only 1 million for every
00:37:34
startup in Europe. Anthropic started six
00:37:37
years ago. If it was in Europe, it'd be
00:37:39
one of the 10 most valuable companies.
00:37:41
But when government starts selectively
00:37:44
punishing and rewarding companies based
00:37:46
on political favoritism, that capital
00:37:49
gets scared and starts withdrawing.
00:37:51
Because why do you invest in open AI or
00:37:54
Anthropic if you don't know who you're
00:37:57
waking up next to in terms of its
00:37:58
ability to raise capital based on the
00:38:00
blood sugar level of whoever's
00:38:02
president? So this is not only the wrong
00:38:05
thing to do and makes us feel less safe
00:38:06
and is probably illegal, it's going to
00:38:08
hit your 401k, folks. in even in places
00:38:12
like the Gulf that are run by
00:38:13
autocracies, they have a real respect
00:38:16
for systemic laws in the market cuz they
00:38:19
recognize the moment they start
00:38:20
with companies based on their own who's
00:38:23
in or out of political favor,
00:38:25
>> it's Russia
00:38:27
>> which has no stock market because nobody
00:38:29
wants to invest and then find out the
00:38:32
CEO got a call from the wrong person or
00:38:34
pissed got on the wrong list and is all
00:38:37
of a sudden out of business. So even in
00:38:40
China, people I think they learned their
00:38:43
lesson lesson a little bit with DD where
00:38:44
they got angry at DD and basically
00:38:46
crushed DD. They're now you know they
00:38:49
have a lot of respect for for
00:38:51
essentially government u regulatory
00:38:53
bodies consistent application of rule of
00:38:55
law trying not to play favorites. So
00:38:58
this will the immediate reaction will be
00:39:01
okay they're wrong this is illegal fine.
00:39:05
And also from a commercial standpoint,
00:39:07
I've been saying for the last year that
00:39:09
someone has an incredible commercial
00:39:11
opportunity to say enough,
00:39:14
>> right?
00:39:14
>> We're the good guys. We do not buy into
00:39:16
this. If this if this costs us money in
00:39:18
the short term, fine. But the very
00:39:20
American values that gave us so much
00:39:22
opportunity are under attack and we're
00:39:24
just not down with it. And I don't I
00:39:26
don't know if you remember me saying
00:39:26
this. I said 6 months ago the biggest
00:39:29
opportunity for for Nike which is
00:39:30
trading at a 10-year low was to run a
00:39:33
bunch of ads saying we're about American
00:39:36
values and that what's going on here is
00:39:37
wrong. What's interesting is the corp
00:39:40
corporate America needed a hero and it
00:39:42
looks like it's Daario.
00:39:44
>> I know it's interesting.
00:39:45
>> What's really interesting here is I
00:39:47
think and and it's finally happening.
00:39:49
They're shaping up to be Joe Frasier and
00:39:51
Muhammad Ali here. And I think that
00:39:53
Dario is being very smart. And I think
00:39:56
it's up to us and the media or
00:39:57
progressive progressives and I'm
00:39:59
obviously stitching this into the rises
00:40:01
and unsubscribe thinking. I think it's
00:40:03
time to start figuring out if there's a
00:40:05
way to be more commercially supportive
00:40:07
of anthropic and less supportive of Open
00:40:09
AI. Basically, OpenAI has decided to
00:40:11
enable and be complicit in the Trump
00:40:14
administration's efforts and Daario and
00:40:16
Anthropic have said, "No, we're we're
00:40:18
not going along here. We're not going to
00:40:19
be intimidated. This is quite frankly,
00:40:22
Cara, I have been waiting for this
00:40:23
matchup for years."
00:40:24
>> I know. Yeah, I know you have. Let me
00:40:26
say I don't I don't know Dario Emodi. I
00:40:28
don't actually. And he might be
00:40:30
arrogant, which is in line with most
00:40:32
people in tech. That may be true, but I
00:40:34
I do know Emil Michael who has been who
00:40:37
did negotiate this. And I do know David
00:40:39
Sachs and both of them are Aryan
00:40:42
operators, ceaseless bullies. Um, and
00:40:45
and anxious toadies to the powerful in
00:40:48
my experience of covering them. Um, Sam
00:40:51
Alman is much a little more complex, but
00:40:53
he's a gifted opportunist, which doesn't
00:40:55
make him that different from anybody in
00:40:56
Silicon Valley. Um, and is has has made
00:41:00
his has made his choice here, right?
00:41:02
That's he wants the business. And so I I
00:41:06
it's a really knowing the characters
00:41:08
involved here. And then on the top of
00:41:09
it, you have an idiot like uh a
00:41:12
like uh Pete Hegsath who doesn't know
00:41:14
what's happening, communicating to
00:41:16
someone he who's even more moronic on
00:41:18
these issues, which is Donald Trump who
00:41:19
I I think just I suspect Saxs is
00:41:22
whispering in his ear and Neil Michael's
00:41:24
whispering in Heg's ear. And this is all
00:41:28
a Silicon Valley beef right between and
00:41:30
among these people. a meal was was let
00:41:33
was had to leave Uber under very um not
00:41:37
great circumstances uh was pushed out.
00:41:40
Um I think all these people is payback
00:41:43
for other people. It's just there's a
00:41:44
lot of Silicon Valley drama happening
00:41:46
here and I don't know Darod I don't I
00:41:49
don't I really don't. It's unusual that
00:41:51
I don't and I've asked for interviews
00:41:52
with him. He has not agreed to do an
00:41:54
interview with me. Uh thanks Chris uh
00:41:56
Nely. Um but I I do and he did a very
00:42:01
good interview with CBS News actually.
00:42:03
Um which I thought was interesting.
00:42:05
>> He handled himself really well.
00:42:06
>> He handled himself really well.
00:42:07
>> He he starched his hat wide in that
00:42:09
interview.
00:42:10
>> Yeah, it was a good interview. Um but
00:42:12
one of the things that I know is the
00:42:15
people on the other side of him are very
00:42:19
people I covered for years who are just
00:42:20
not good. Uh not not um how can I say
00:42:24
this nicely? Uh they're they're the
00:42:27
worst I of of the people I had to cover
00:42:30
over the many years. I have to say
00:42:31
they're literally the worst. And uh and
00:42:34
and to see them in these positions of
00:42:36
power is making these decisions and
00:42:39
hurting a company that just doesn't want
00:42:40
to do business with them. And actually
00:42:42
Michael tweeted out against Emodi weeks
00:42:45
ago. You know, it's so unprofessional as
00:42:48
a government like it's so it's such
00:42:50
based in beefs that were happening
00:42:52
elsewhere. And Emil, I'm really I had
00:42:55
ended up having drinks with him after he
00:42:56
was sort of drumed out of Uber and he he
00:43:00
said something to me. It was so strange.
00:43:01
He goes, "Well, I'm so glad we can be
00:43:03
friends." And I remember saying to him,
00:43:04
"We're not friends. I think what you did
00:43:06
there is terrible. I don't know what
00:43:09
where you operate, but let him just do
00:43:12
what he wants. And don't don't bring
00:43:13
your stupid insecure beefs out on the
00:43:16
thing. And it will benefit Anthropic. It
00:43:18
will I think he I think he's handling
00:43:20
himself. And he may be arrogant. He may
00:43:22
have a god clumps. I don't know. I don't
00:43:24
know. But he's certainly not like these
00:43:26
people. And in that case, the bar is
00:43:28
low. I've had my say.
00:43:29
>> I think it's a big opportunity. I think
00:43:31
I think Americans and consumers are so
00:43:33
ready to vote with their pocketbooks.
00:43:36
And
00:43:37
>> Sam I don't think Sam has acquitted
00:43:38
himself. Well, um I'm not going to have
00:43:41
advertising. We would never do porn.
00:43:42
Well, I need to raise money. Never mind.
00:43:45
And the largest customer in the world,
00:43:47
which is the US government, needs to
00:43:49
have a series of systemic laws that
00:43:51
don't that these are the rules you get
00:43:53
to play by. And full stop. Everyone is
00:43:56
entitled to and obligated to the same
00:43:58
set of rules, not who who you like or
00:44:01
who you don't like. And which kind of
00:44:03
leads into our next story, which is
00:44:05
Netflix and Paramount,
00:44:07
>> right? Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott,
00:44:10
let's take a quick break. When we come
00:44:11
back, Netflix emerges as a winner after
00:44:13
losing the Warner Brothers battle.
00:44:16
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vanta.com/pivot.
00:45:24
Scott, we're back. Netflix may have lost
00:45:26
the battle for Warner Brothers, but it's
00:45:28
looking like a winner. The company stock
00:45:30
surged 14% of it formally exited the
00:45:32
bidding war. It also now has 2.8 8
00:45:34
billion in the bank after Paramount paid
00:45:36
the Warner Brothers breakup fee. Went
00:45:38
after the plan all along was to saddle
00:45:39
Paramount with debt, drive up the price,
00:45:41
and walk away with more money. Ted Sando
00:45:43
said there are easier ways to make $2.8
00:45:45
billion. Very funny. He's also trashing
00:45:48
it so beautifully. I have to say what a
00:45:49
pro the way like it's ridiculously
00:45:52
expensive. He's dropping all sorts of
00:45:54
bone m that Bloomberg interview you did.
00:45:56
Um I'm hoping to do an interview with
00:45:58
him relatively soon. He noted the
00:46:00
Paramount deal is dependent on cost
00:46:02
cutting leading to less production, less
00:46:04
people working. He's 100% right. On the
00:46:07
Paramount front, CEO David Ellison, who
00:46:09
got strafed by Barry Diller as a stunt
00:46:11
pilot in a speech, another thing, just
00:46:14
announced that Paramount Plus and HBO
00:46:16
Max will be combined into one streaming
00:46:17
service. He also said there would be a
00:46:19
lot less, I think, a lot of cuts, $6
00:46:22
billion in cuts, that he can quickly
00:46:24
delever it. Nobody believes him or
00:46:26
thinks he's capable of doing it. uh
00:46:28
Sarandos had talked more about 16
00:46:30
billion. Let me just tell you Hollywood
00:46:33
uh look out below. This is this is look
00:46:36
I don't think Ellison means to be
00:46:38
incorrect but he is incorrect about
00:46:40
what's about to happen here because the
00:46:41
pressures on this much debt. I talked to
00:46:44
as you know Bill Cohen went because you
00:46:46
weren't around last weekend but this
00:46:48
much debt is enormous amounts of debt.
00:46:51
It's like crazy. They don't have enough
00:46:53
um income to they have barely enough
00:46:56
income so they can't grow. they have to
00:46:58
cut. There's going to be there's obvious
00:47:00
duplication that they will cut. But even
00:47:03
more than that, anything they say at
00:47:05
this point is just absolutely untrue.
00:47:08
It's just and I again I don't think they
00:47:10
mean it that way. I think they believe
00:47:12
it that they can, you know, turn um
00:47:16
into a into chicken into chicken
00:47:19
salad. But most smart math math people
00:47:23
don't think they can do it, especially
00:47:25
with competitors like Netflix breathing
00:47:26
down and YouTube breathing down their
00:47:28
neck. Your thoughts?
00:47:30
>> Well, I I think I've been consistent on
00:47:32
this. The biggest losers are the
00:47:33
creative community. Yeah.
00:47:35
>> They don't realize it.
00:47:36
>> I don't know. Half a million of them
00:47:38
just got lined up and shot.
00:47:40
>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean they're they're the
00:47:42
amount of AI slop we're going to see
00:47:44
come out of Paramount and Warner trying
00:47:47
to pass for, you know, great
00:47:50
breakthrough content. It's just going to
00:47:52
be, like I said, you know, in space, no
00:47:55
one can hear you scream. Oh, trust me,
00:47:57
you're going to hear a lot of people
00:47:58
scream. And the biggest winner, hands
00:48:02
down,
00:48:04
um, and I told Ted this. I said I if you
00:48:08
walk from this, you realize your stock's
00:48:10
going to go up 10%. I was wrong. In the
00:48:12
last 5 days, the stock's up 30%.
00:48:15
>> Yeah. Back to other levels. Yeah.
00:48:17
>> Okay. So, let's look at it this way.
00:48:20
They quote unquote technically save $120
00:48:22
billion by not acquiring it and their
00:48:26
stocks up a hundred billion. Cara, they
00:48:29
could go buy Disney right now.
00:48:31
>> Yeah.
00:48:31
>> For walking from Warner Brothers. So,
00:48:35
and if I were them and I was Ted and I'd
00:48:37
be pissed off, I'd be firing up my
00:48:40
lobbyists and my lawyers and be like,
00:48:42
delay an obvious make it create so much
00:48:44
havoc for this deal to close. And by the
00:48:46
way, every studio, every creative,
00:48:48
they're all going to want to go to work
00:48:50
for one place. Okay. Do I want if I'm
00:48:53
pitching I just had my uh latest book
00:48:56
option for a series and for a
00:48:58
documentary, which means absolutely
00:48:59
nothing I've figured out in Hollywood.
00:49:01
>> Your man, your notes on being a man.
00:49:04
>> Yeah. for an original scripted series
00:49:05
and a documentary. Anyways,
00:49:07
>> think of it as an R-rated Wonder Years
00:49:09
is how I've been pitching it.
00:49:11
>> Who's playing me?
00:49:13
>> Erve Vill
00:49:16
>> uh uh Erve Villiches in a little tiny
00:49:19
sou. I see Shalom plays
00:49:22
>> with a with a puppy German Shepherd.
00:49:23
>> No, Shalom work. He looks like a teenage
00:49:25
boy, too.
00:49:26
>> Anyways, uh
00:49:27
>> Shalom. So,
00:49:30
these guys, the amount of money, um, let
00:49:33
me put this way. Say, say you're in the
00:49:36
creative community and you have the
00:49:37
hottest script or you're the hottest
00:49:39
actor and you have offers from from the
00:49:42
Paramount Studio, from Warner, or from
00:49:45
Netflix, who are you absolutely going to
00:49:48
pick?
00:49:48
>> Netflix.
00:49:49
>> Oh my god, they're going to
00:49:51
>> every day of the week and twice on
00:49:52
Sunday. They look like heroes. You all
00:49:55
hated Netflix. Now you're going to love
00:49:56
them. It's really and and by the way,
00:49:58
when the Democrats come into power,
00:50:00
that's going to be good for
00:50:02
>> HBO just lost 30% of its value because
00:50:03
HBO's asset was it always was able to
00:50:06
punch above its weight class. It did two
00:50:08
billion in content relative to Netflix's
00:50:10
18 billion. But if there was a show
00:50:12
people were talking about around the
00:50:13
water cooler, whether it was Girls or
00:50:16
Euphoria or Game of Thrones or
00:50:18
Succession, it usually was HBO because
00:50:21
HBO's culture and ability when I'm
00:50:24
talking a lot about me, my favorite
00:50:26
subject, but when we pitched my big tech
00:50:28
series, everybody, all the creatives and
00:50:31
all the stars, they all wanted to go
00:50:32
with HBO.
00:50:33
>> Yeah.
00:50:34
>> They love Netflix, but if we had our
00:50:36
choice,
00:50:36
>> Yeah.
00:50:37
>> we would have gone with HBO. Guess what?
00:50:39
That just changed overnight. completely.
00:50:41
I wouldn't do a thing with them. I have
00:50:43
to say I've got some shows I I don't
00:50:45
have no interest.
00:50:46
>> What? So they can figure out how to
00:50:47
produce it for a third of the budget
00:50:48
using AI?
00:50:49
>> Yeah, you. Like and also one of the
00:50:52
things that's interesting is that there
00:50:53
there's there was an interesting
00:50:55
movement. And also I mean I think the
00:50:57
CNN part of it is a smaller part of it.
00:50:59
It still is going to be a lot of news,
00:51:01
right? It's still because it's CNN the
00:51:03
merger and they've already made a mess
00:51:05
of CBS. Um but they're going to make a
00:51:08
bigger mess of CNN. I I have heard from
00:51:10
so many HBO people that are like
00:51:13
like was everything in every like a
00:51:16
dozen HBO people CNN is losing its ever
00:51:19
love and mind right as they should and
00:51:21
they're like they're like what do we do
00:51:24
Cara and I'm like I don't know I'm not
00:51:25
going to be here so it's not like
00:51:29
I was like I don't know what to tell you
00:51:30
but you know I wouldn't work for those
00:51:32
hacks. Um, but one of the things uh
00:51:35
that's interesting is the idea that that
00:51:37
Netflix takes a little bit of this money
00:51:39
and hires like the like Anderson Cooper
00:51:41
and the best of them and creates a
00:51:43
little news service. I
00:51:46
>> they should like a really good one.
00:51:48
>> I talked to the woman who runs content
00:51:49
at and at and Netflix and I said I have
00:51:51
an idea.
00:51:51
>> Bella Bella.
00:51:52
>> Bella. Yeah.
00:51:53
>> Start something called the hour and hire
00:51:55
the twothirds of the people from 60
00:51:57
Minutes that would like to leave right
00:51:59
now.
00:52:00
>> Yeah. and have a show, weekly show
00:52:02
called the hour.
00:52:03
>> I'm like, I'll tell you who's good and
00:52:04
who's not. I like I
00:52:06
>> You don't think all of those people are
00:52:07
looking for a way to get off the get on
00:52:09
the last helicopter out of Saigon right
00:52:11
now?
00:52:11
>> Yeah. And a lot of them want to be
00:52:12
entrepreneurial. It's really
00:52:13
interesting. They they do see the need
00:52:15
to change out. I mean, obviously the
00:52:17
economics of a lot of broadcast and
00:52:20
cable television is out of whack with
00:52:22
the revenues clearly all through the
00:52:24
industry. By the way,
00:52:25
>> Netflix is up 30%. Netflix.
00:52:28
>> Netflix should
00:52:28
>> The market has decided that Netflix is
00:52:31
worth a hundred billion dollars more
00:52:33
>> more by
00:52:34
>> without
00:52:35
>> Yeah.
00:52:35
>> Warner Brothers,
00:52:36
>> you could spend a very little amount of
00:52:37
money putting together a really
00:52:39
interesting news offering. At the same
00:52:40
time, you know, as obviously CBS is
00:52:44
going to go is going right in a really
00:52:46
weak sauce way. It's really kind of
00:52:48
wimpy, right, and stupid, right? But,
00:52:50
uh, I mean, if you're going to be right,
00:52:51
go all the way to Fox. That's my
00:52:53
feeling. like and and it's it's it's an
00:52:55
ever dying audience by the way. Um and I
00:52:59
mean my mom's is a average listener
00:53:01
essentially. She's 92. Um but one of the
00:53:04
things that I think will help
00:53:05
>> Fox is doing really well actually.
00:53:06
>> Yeah, it has. That's right. You're not
00:53:07
going to get you're not catching Fox.
00:53:09
>> Here's a crazy stat. Especially more
00:53:10
moderates watch Fox and CNN right now.
00:53:12
>> Well, I'm not surprised. It's anyway one
00:53:15
of the because the news part is I mean
00:53:17
like Jennifer and there's several people
00:53:19
who are quite good over there but um
00:53:22
there's a lot of great people at CNN and
00:53:23
let me be clear there's a lot of great
00:53:24
reporters throughout that organization
00:53:26
and they do a great job. People tend to
00:53:28
focus on Scott Jennings at night when
00:53:30
there's lots of people but
00:53:32
>> you mean I feel stupider with Abby
00:53:34
Phillips.
00:53:35
>> Okay, stop sound stop Jennings is the
00:53:37
problem over there. So
00:53:38
>> but no CNN is the problem for putting
00:53:40
him on and having crossfire. that that
00:53:42
show is but I'm saying there's a lot
00:53:45
more to CNN than that show. So it gets a
00:53:47
lot of attention but one of the things
00:53:49
that I think is interesting is it really
00:53:51
opens up an opportunity for MS now
00:53:53
because it it they're they're by
00:53:55
themselves over there on the left like
00:53:57
it's a great business right like it's
00:53:59
just it's sort of like the fox of the
00:54:01
left and so they have a huge opportunity
00:54:04
it seems to me
00:54:04
>> if you are in love with tra this I'm not
00:54:07
>> you are in love with traditional media
00:54:08
this is who it's an opportunity for it's
00:54:10
an opportunity small opportunity
00:54:12
>> for Bill Cohen and and and Ben Thompson
00:54:15
and Cara Swisser.
00:54:17
>> I know that
00:54:17
>> you're about to see a massive diffusion
00:54:19
of power from these industrial brands.
00:54:21
>> It's already happening.
00:54:22
>> The means of production is way too
00:54:23
expensive to all these little media
00:54:25
company startups and substacks and
00:54:27
podcasts.
00:54:28
>> I agree.
00:54:29
>> And newsletters and this all this hand
00:54:31
ringing that, oh no, the Washington Post
00:54:33
can't go away. Doesn't matter,
00:54:35
folks. Y
00:54:36
>> those people are going to find their own
00:54:37
little
00:54:39
niche media companies and they're going
00:54:40
to punch above their weight class and
00:54:42
they're not going to be saddled by the
00:54:43
blood sugar level of a guy on human
00:54:45
growth hormone and I just think MS now
00:54:47
by itself being I think CNN should have
00:54:49
been independent would have given an
00:54:51
opportunity to be innovative. They have
00:54:53
an opportunity to be innovative. They
00:54:54
do. They absolutely do. And so that's a
00:54:57
good thing for them because they're
00:54:58
they're all by themselves over there.
00:54:59
>> This is the best use of CNN. We have an
00:55:02
iconic popular Gavin Newsome and he
00:55:04
stacks his cabinet with CNN anchors.
00:55:07
Dana Bash would make a great vice
00:55:09
president.
00:55:09
>> Yeah. Yeah. See, Dana does a great job.
00:55:11
There's a lot of really great there's
00:55:13
amazing people.
00:55:13
>> Michael, I think he could be secretary.
00:55:16
>> Anderson, I think, does a good job.
00:55:18
Every single Caitlyn Collins I have so
00:55:20
much admiration for her.
00:55:22
>> She can be ambassador to the EU. Okay.
00:55:24
Literally, I can pull I can pull
00:55:26
together a cabinet that looks like the
00:55:28
Kennedy administration from CNN
00:55:30
anchors
00:55:31
>> and it would be so much higher than Pete
00:55:33
Dag on any
00:55:34
>> think about it. Janine Pro that's I mean
00:55:37
look who are competing. I'm down I am
00:55:39
down for networks' cabinets at this
00:55:41
point. I think the CNN people are so
00:55:43
impressive.
00:55:44
>> Yes.
00:55:44
>> But they're all about to and they've
00:55:47
been doing this last two years. I'm
00:55:48
thinking about starting a podcast
00:55:49
because they're having the uncomfortable
00:55:51
conversation. I used to make 7 million a
00:55:52
year.
00:55:54
>> Not just CNN, it's throughout the It's
00:55:57
all the media people. They I
00:55:58
>> People anchor off the most money they've
00:56:00
ever made and think that's what I'm
00:56:01
worth. No one ever thinks to themselves,
00:56:03
"Wow, I'm overpaid right now." Guess
00:56:05
what? There's a I can produce I can
00:56:07
>> I can prove to you statistically at any
00:56:09
moment in time there's a 50% chance you
00:56:11
are overpaid right now relative to the
00:56:13
market.
00:56:13
>> I I'm not I'm not favoring media. I just
00:56:16
think it's I always see it as an
00:56:17
opportunity. I always see as an like you
00:56:19
can still do well. It it's a good
00:56:22
business. It makes a lot of profits. You
00:56:24
could do well here and it could give you
00:56:25
an o it gives an opportunity for MS now
00:56:27
to have a lane all to itself. And I
00:56:29
think that's always a good thing. Always
00:56:31
a good thing. And
00:56:32
>> there's Ms. Now stars. Rachel, she's
00:56:34
only one day a week.
00:56:35
>> Rachel, there's a whole bunch over
00:56:36
there. But let me say Rebecca Cutler is
00:56:38
Stephanie. There's a whole bunch of
00:56:39
people over there that are
00:56:40
>> very talented.
00:56:41
>> Uh and they're they're hiring a lot of
00:56:42
great reporters and Rebecca Cutler who
00:56:45
you know know about is amazing. like
00:56:47
she's she's she was heard me at CNN plus
00:56:49
she did at the pl um and and and you
00:56:52
know I think there's lots of opportunity
00:56:54
I think that the the the Ellison's will
00:56:56
bollocks it and coming to you soon to
00:56:58
Cara Swisser docky series Cara Swisser
00:57:00
wants to live forever on CNN. No
00:57:02
kidding. That's coming.
00:57:04
>> I just hope it closes before then so I
00:57:06
can see a photo with you and Larry
00:57:07
Ellison.
00:57:08
>> No, it's not. Listen, it's it's going to
00:57:10
be soon. I will be out I'll be I'll have
00:57:13
removed my my things from the closet
00:57:15
long before then. So curious who they're
00:57:16
going to ask who they're going to.
00:57:17
>> Let me just tell you everybody, Scott
00:57:19
Galloway is in the second episode and
00:57:21
he's looking fine and and it's he looks
00:57:24
it's he's it's an adorable Cara and
00:57:27
Scott moment. Anyway, let's go.
00:57:29
>> That'll save him.
00:57:31
>> That's their answer.
00:57:32
>> A good It's actually a really good show.
00:57:34
I have to say I'm very
00:57:35
>> You have to say your show's really good.
00:57:36
You're going to love this. Uh, I did a
00:57:38
podcast today and they asked me what was
00:57:40
my favorite moment with Cara Swisser and
00:57:44
I said when you and your wife came down
00:57:46
for the weekend and I let you speak pick
00:57:49
the streaming media thing we were going
00:57:50
to watch. Big mistake. You
00:57:52
picked some like art heist from PBS or
00:57:54
like the history of great museum thefts
00:57:57
or something. I
00:57:58
>> Oh, that was a good show. And we're
00:58:00
sitting there and we're all eating and o
00:58:03
over comes white LeBron, your
00:58:05
14-year-old monster.
00:58:07
>> And he sits down and I'm not
00:58:08
exaggerating. We all pop 8 in into the
00:58:11
air.
00:58:13
>> He's bigger than ever.
00:58:14
>> And also the next day you were you were
00:58:15
scolding him like a mother does and you
00:58:18
were literally your neck was craning so
00:58:20
hard up at him.
00:58:21
>> It was like watching mama.
00:58:23
>> It was like watching Billy Barter Barty
00:58:26
lecture Shaquille O'Neal. Yeah. Like I
00:58:28
said to my I said to
00:58:29
>> I I said to my son, I'm like, "Look at
00:58:31
this. Look at this. Look what's going on
00:58:33
over there."
00:58:34
>> Yeah.
00:58:34
>> Anyway, that's right. I should parent
00:58:37
everybody. Anyway, um uh let's go on a
00:58:40
quick break. When we come back, wins and
00:58:42
fails.
00:58:43
>> Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and
00:58:45
fails. What? I can go first if you want.
00:58:47
>> First,
00:58:48
>> I have to say I we talked I talked too
00:58:51
much about Hito Robin, but I thought
00:58:52
Connor's story did a great job uh on SNL
00:58:56
this week. I usually
00:58:57
>> Oh my god, that's my win.
00:58:58
>> What? What? Okay, you take it. You take
00:59:01
it. Let's discuss it. Go ahead. Go
00:59:03
ahead. Take it.
00:59:04
>> I feel that SNL thread uh My win was
00:59:08
SNL. I thought they thread the needle
00:59:10
perfectly
00:59:11
>> this week. Yeah. Not every week. Yeah.
00:59:13
>> They they honored the women's team,
00:59:16
>> but at the same time, I think it's
00:59:17
all the the men have
00:59:19
taken.
00:59:20
>> Yeah.
00:59:20
>> I think for them to Wouldn't it have
00:59:22
been great if you listen to the video?
00:59:23
This was President Trump taking everyone
00:59:26
back to the 50s and mocking women.
00:59:28
>> That is not what we need. We need a more
00:59:30
evolved sense of masculinity that
00:59:31
celebrates great athletic performance.
00:59:33
By the way, eight of 12 medals from the
00:59:35
women.
00:59:35
>> The goal,
00:59:38
the overtime goal, the in my opinion,
00:59:39
one of the great moments in sports
00:59:41
history of the women's hockey team. They
00:59:43
threaded the needle perfectly because I
00:59:44
do think the men got more than they
00:59:46
deserved. I
00:59:47
>> they got they got invaded by Cash Patel.
00:59:50
Let's blame Cash.
00:59:50
>> That's exactly right. But what are they
00:59:53
going to do? What are they going to do?
00:59:54
>> I agree.
00:59:55
>> Anyways, and if you listen to the tape
00:59:57
when when Trump made those wildly sexist
01:00:00
remarks, there were one or two men's
01:00:02
hockey players saying two for two. They
01:00:05
were trying to acknowledge that both the
01:00:07
men's and the women's team
01:00:09
>> and SNL did it perfectly. It they didn't
01:00:12
virtue signal and say, "Yeah, women and
01:00:14
oh that both jokes." They had the women
01:00:17
make the jokes and the men were
01:00:18
>> and the men were there to take it
01:00:20
>> and they were fine with it. They thread
01:00:21
the needle
01:00:23
>> perfectly.
01:00:23
>> And it was critical that Connor's story
01:00:25
was standing in between them. I have to
01:00:27
say he's such a likable person and such
01:00:29
a talented physical comedian. Like his
01:00:32
stripper who got in a car accident was
01:00:34
so funny. Like I I don't believe
01:00:37
they pulled that one off. Um I have I
01:00:39
have to say he is such a delightful
01:00:41
talented.
01:00:42
>> He's a delightful figure. Both of them
01:00:44
are. And
01:00:45
>> I'm telling you, season two like
01:00:47
scorching hot rivalry with the women's
01:00:49
hockey team. Daddy's here for it.
01:00:51
>> Yes. Yes. And I thought the women
01:00:53
handled it well.
01:00:54
>> So well done.
01:00:55
>> Everyone was big. Everybody was big.
01:00:56
>> The writers at SNL are geniuses.
01:00:58
>> And you know who who sucks? Cash
01:01:01
Patel. Why are you invading these guys
01:01:03
win? Like as if you and reflected
01:01:06
glory. You you tubby loser. Like
01:01:09
forget it. Like how dare you. Now now
01:01:11
I'm focused only on Cash Patel. I I I I
01:01:15
really am. I think he's just the worst.
01:01:16
So um uh my fail is is um I think this
01:01:21
this situation with Anthropica. I think
01:01:23
it has to be we are not
01:01:24
>> the same person today. We're literally
01:01:26
the same person.
01:01:27
>> Okay. Right. I think there they are
01:01:30
bullies. I think they use Twitter as a a
01:01:32
way to attack people in a way that's
01:01:34
really unprofessional. You can have
01:01:37
differences and everyone's already
01:01:38
always grabbing for power and grabbing
01:01:41
for money. I get it. It's gone on since
01:01:42
the beginning of time. But the way
01:01:44
you're doing this is all about your
01:01:46
insecured childhood traumas that are
01:01:49
being writ large on the rest of us. This
01:01:51
is not professional. You do not have to
01:01:53
like do this. And they do it as like
01:01:55
keyboard warriors on Twitter. Um I got a
01:01:58
text from I'm not going to say who it
01:01:59
was who said you got the world is
01:02:02
happening on Twitter. You got to be back
01:02:03
here. And I was like I'm not going back
01:02:05
to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making
01:02:08
children sexual. I was like the world is
01:02:11
not happening on Twitter. The world is
01:02:13
happening in the world, you guys. Like,
01:02:16
you need to get out of your own
01:02:19
way. You are you are you you
01:02:22
have to understand that what you're
01:02:23
doing is damaging to most people and
01:02:26
that we don't want to hear about all
01:02:28
your beefs and all your traumas and
01:02:30
everything else. If Anthropic doesn't
01:02:33
want to do business with you, just let's
01:02:35
move along. Let's just move along. And
01:02:37
I'm sorry you're not as successful as
01:02:40
Daario Amodi or smart Emil Michael, but
01:02:42
you're going to have to live with it as
01:02:44
as being an anxious toad to the
01:02:46
powerful. Stop it. Like that to me is is
01:02:49
the loss. You go ahead.
01:02:51
>> Mine's exactly the same, but I I'll look
01:02:53
at it through a shareholder lens. I'm
01:02:55
looking at a company called Marcado
01:02:56
Libé, which is the Amazon of Argentina.
01:02:58
And one of the reasons I'm looking at it
01:03:00
>> is that effectively when the bricks were
01:03:03
in vogue, you know, the price earnings
01:03:06
multiple of certain Latin American
01:03:07
markets was about 20 and it went down to
01:03:10
eight because all the flows went into US
01:03:11
tech stocks which meant you could you
01:03:15
could increase your earnings two and a
01:03:17
half fold over 10 years and your stock
01:03:19
was flat. You can't outrun multiple
01:03:23
contraction in a market as a stock and
01:03:25
it all under the same opaces and market
01:03:27
dynamics trump individual performance.
01:03:29
At the same time, it's almost impossible
01:03:31
to be wrong when you have multiple
01:03:32
expansion. It has been American
01:03:35
investors. You know, we all think we're
01:03:36
geniuses right now in our 401ks. We have
01:03:39
had multiple expansion since 2008 and
01:03:42
we're about to experience multiple
01:03:43
contraction and we're already
01:03:44
experiencing it. We were 21 out of 23
01:03:46
markets last year on a dollar adjusted
01:03:48
basis. Everyone else outperformed us and
01:03:50
one of the reasons people don't realize
01:03:52
we have just lost trillions of dollars
01:03:54
when the Pentagon starts picking winners
01:03:56
and losers. If which makes weapons
01:04:00
decides that yeah we are going to figure
01:04:02
out we're going to use Silicon Valley
01:04:04
ethos to help the defense department
01:04:06
kill people and people freak out. Well,
01:04:08
guess what? They're allowed to do that.
01:04:10
It's not illegal. They're allowed to do
01:04:12
that when anthropic or excuse me when
01:04:14
when Palunteer says we're going to work
01:04:16
with the government of Israel to track
01:04:17
down terrorists and kill them in their
01:04:18
homes that you may find that
01:04:20
distasteful. It's legal. They're allowed
01:04:23
to do it. And anthropic when they decide
01:04:25
we don't want to provide our services or
01:04:28
data for what we feel is the surveilling
01:04:30
the illegal surveillance of US citizens,
01:04:32
they too are allowed to do that. And
01:04:36
when governments start playing political
01:04:37
favorites in markets, the the rule of
01:04:41
law is no longer applied and your
01:04:44
multiple on companies, your price
01:04:46
earnings multiple begins to contract.
01:04:49
Freedoms and systemic laws and a
01:04:51
separation between government and
01:04:52
business results in higher price
01:04:55
earnings multiples and greater increases
01:04:57
in 401ks and your ability to retire
01:04:59
earlier. And this Pentagon
01:05:03
stationary war on anthropic is going to
01:05:07
cost US investors trillions of dollars
01:05:10
as people decide to go where they know
01:05:13
who they're waking up next to that they
01:05:14
can invest in a company and they do the
01:05:17
assessment based on the laws at hand. Is
01:05:19
this company succeeding or failing based
01:05:21
on the current laws and they don't have
01:05:22
to try and guess what the oneoff
01:05:26
individual laws will be in a few months.
01:05:28
So I have the same
01:05:30
>> same win and same fail.
01:05:31
>> Uh but I look at it as an investor. I'm
01:05:34
now looking at markets.
01:05:36
>> People get angry at the autotocracies in
01:05:39
in China or in the Gulf. They have a
01:05:42
huge respect for the domain or the
01:05:45
sovereignty of investors and having
01:05:48
uniform laws that apply to everyone
01:05:50
equally. And we are now becoming that
01:05:52
nation where we decide which companies
01:05:54
win and lose. And all that means is our
01:05:56
PE. We're about to experience multiple
01:05:58
contraction which you cannot outrun.
01:06:00
>> Not for long. Let me just say you feel
01:06:02
it. Can't you feel it? And speaking of
01:06:04
feeling it, Scott, this has been a great
01:06:06
discussion. I have to say I was a little
01:06:07
worried this morning. Um I was also
01:06:09
tired, but this has been a really great
01:06:10
discussion about these things and
01:06:12
disagreeing in a really uh civil way.
01:06:14
But let me say it's going to continue
01:06:16
because we're going Where are we going?
01:06:18
Scott Galloway on Sunday.
01:06:20
>> Resist and unsubscribe. Big
01:06:22
announcement, fulltime resources, and by
01:06:25
the way, Sam, it's not going to be a
01:06:26
good night for you.
01:06:27
>> No,
01:06:28
>> it's And guess what, Sam? We're talking
01:06:30
about
01:06:31
>> 48 hours.
01:06:33
>> You put Cara Swisser on an invite. In 48
01:06:35
hours, we sold out the pantageous at
01:06:37
thousands.
01:06:38
>> We sold it out. And we want to thank
01:06:39
Tain Danger for doing an amazing job for
01:06:41
us in Minneapolis.
01:06:42
>> He's my favorite porn star.
01:06:43
>> He's your favorite porn star. And he's
01:06:44
an amazing Danger and our staff who's
01:06:47
working really hard. We sold out right
01:06:48
away. We are coming to Minneapolis. We
01:06:51
have special guests. We are very
01:06:53
excited. Um and we will talk about the
01:06:55
next move. Scott will Scott who's the
01:06:57
president of Resist and Unsubscribe. Um
01:07:00
I'm just a helper. Um but we want to
01:07:02
hear from you. Send us your questions
01:07:03
about business tech or whatever is on
01:07:05
your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot
01:07:07
to submit a question for the show or
01:07:08
call 8551 pivot. Okay, that's the show.
01:07:12
Thanks for listening to Pivot and be
01:07:13
sure to like and subscribe to our
01:07:15
YouTube channel. We'll be back on
01:07:16
Friday.