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How Trump Is “Workshopping” His Iran War Plan | Pivot

March 03, 2026 / 01:07:31

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He really doesn't seem to have a plan.

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And he's the president, right?

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>> He'll call you and ask you for your plan

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in about half an hour.

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>> He's going to

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Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York

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Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

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Network. I'm Cara Swisser.

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>> And I'm Scott Galloway.

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>> So, I just flew in from San Francisco

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and boy are my arms tired.

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>> I've heard that truck before.

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>> I know. I I don't know why I keep doing

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the the night flights things. I just

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keep I think I'm getting too old for it.

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Um, but I had, as you can hear

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everybody, I have a cold. And I actually

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was there to interview Gavin Newsome uh

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for his book, Young Man in a Hurry, uh,

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which is now, I guess, Old Man in a

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Hurry. Um, and, uh, and so I I went in

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to do that and it was actually a

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fantastic interview. We'll talk about

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it.

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>> That's got a lot of news.

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>> Yeah, I did. I made a lot. I'm a news

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maker, my friend. I don't

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>> And I just just to be clear to give you

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insight into our relationship, he there

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was someone put out a thing saying that

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he was in support of he changes tone or

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he's in support of regime change

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>> and I wrote smart and you bered me. So

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why don't you give us

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>> not publicly. We're going to talk about

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it. We're going to let's let's we'll get

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into it. I didn't berate you. It just

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was inaccurately depicting the interview

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I had just done

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>> because I wrote because I wrote the word

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smart.

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>> No, because you were tweeting an

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inaccurate report. That's all.

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>> What was who who put out the inaccurate

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report?

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>> I don't know. It just was weird. It was

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weird because it was so not what he

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said. Um, and so it just annoys me. It

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just annoys me. I mean, I definitely

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definitely made a lot of news in that

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interview. Um, by the way, we talked we

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talked a lot about his book, which was

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interesting. Um, we'll get to the

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>> But he's definitely not running for

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president because no president ever puts

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out a book before they run for

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president.

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>> I know. Well, no, he kept saying that he

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wasn't sure. It was really funny. And

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then right afterwards, um, it's actually

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I like the book. It's gotten some bad

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reviews, but I think they've just

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decided who he is and are b are

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reviewing it based on sort of that

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anxious toad slick image versus a lot of

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stuff that he's done that's brave. He's

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a very complex person like yourself,

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Scott Galloway.

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>> I've heard it's actually pretty

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authentic.

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>> I thought it was great and it was a lot

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about stuff um it was there was it was

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let me just characterize this

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discussion. The book I really like, I

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have to say, and I think I found out a

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lot of things about him that I didn't

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know. His um about his mother. I I knew

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a little bit about his mother's assisted

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suicide, but it was really uh um really

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interesting to talk about a lot about

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his own struggles and not it wasn't the

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dyslexia part. We didn't talk a lot

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about that, but a lot about I didn't

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know his wife had had a miscarriage, for

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example. Um they have he has four kids.

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He almost had five. Um it was a there's

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a lot in there. There was a lot in

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there. And one of the things that struck

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me, which brings me back to you, which I

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know how you like that,

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>> is he was the wife uh he was the son of

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a single mom who was not wealthy. And he

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he has a lot of resonances to your with

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your mom. You know what I mean? Like

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your story with your single mom who was

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struggling, father who was distant um

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and who he who he desperately wanted to

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to to be with. It was really it reminded

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me a lot of you actually. It was an

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interesting discussion.

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>> I think people underestimate Newsome and

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I think they underestimate um DSantis

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and Rubio. Um but I think right now

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uh you know I I I think Governor Nome

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hands down is the is the leading

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candidate on the Democratic side. And

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not only that, I think I know a little

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bit about his personal story and I

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actually think it's quite compelling.

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>> Yeah.

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>> And a lot of his personal failings I

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think will come across as a bit

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authentic. people know about them

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>> and also I think California is going to

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begin not to peak but to recover at just

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the right moment for him.

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>> Yeah, I I suspect. Anyway, it was really

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interesting because I did feel like I

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was having the same discussion you and I

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have had about single moms.

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>> Look, we're the same person except he's

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much more talented and handsome and

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higher character than me. Other than

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that, we're the same guy.

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>> That's what he suffers from. That's

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everybody is sensitive to you and not to

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him. He definitely played into it. We

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talked about that. It was a very

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personal thing, but we did get a lot of

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news in too.

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>> Yeah. Reading about it everywhere. I

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know. Yeah.

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>> I I literally see Gavin Newsome and this

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11-year-old boy on stage and I'm like,

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"Oh, I know her."

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>> And my voice is so For those listening

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to it, I apologize. This is a good

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version of my voice. It was so I I was

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absolutely dead horse three hours before

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and I thought I'd have to cancel, but I

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I I did all manner of things to my voice

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to allow it to work.

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>> Um, and he got to over and I said I

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said, "You're lucky today. I've never

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had a man overalk me, so I'm you're

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going to get some chance to do that

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today." Okay, which was funny. Um, and

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he does talk a lot, let me just say. So,

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let's get right let's get right into it.

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Um, President Trump says the US military

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intends to continue its assault on Iran

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for four to five weeks if necessary. Um,

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he keeps changing his tune. We'll get to

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that in a second. The US and Israel

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began strikes on Saturday, killing

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Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, as

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well as several senior officials. Trump

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has justified the attack on Iran, which

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did not receive congressional approval,

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by citing quote imminent threats, though

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he had not provided evidence that it

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looks like he doesn't have any. Iran is

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retaliating all over the place with

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missiles and drones targeting Israel,

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the US bases in Gulf countries, Dubai,

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all manner of of places. Four American

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service members have been killed, and

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Trump says there will likely be more,

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but quote, "That's the way it is." Uh,

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kind of a callous way to put it. Um,

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three US jets were also shot down in a

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friendly fire incident over Kuwait. The

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crew members got out safely. Thank

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goodness. These are $90 million jets.

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That's $270 million. Uh, Trump has

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justified the attack on Iran, which did

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not receive congressional approval by

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citing imminent threats, though he has

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not provided evidence and and many many

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people who've been briefed on it,

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including Republicans, said there wasn't

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evidence of that. That said, a lot of

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people are celebrating the death of the

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Ayatollah. Um, Defense Secretary Pete

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Hegaz held a presser a little while ago.

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He said this uh is not so-called regime

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change war, but a regime sure did

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change. Not clear if either of them is

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true because Trump has talked about

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regime change and it doesn't appear as

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the regime has changed. Hegex was also

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uh asked about the timeline. Let's

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listen to what he said if we can hear

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him directly.

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>> To the media outlets and political left

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screaming endless wars, stop. This is

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not Iraq.

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This is not endless. I was there for

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both. Our generation knows better and so

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does this president. He called the last

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20 years of nation building wars dumb.

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And he's right. This is the opposite.

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>> Well, it's nice to hear from a stomach

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model who doesn't know what he's talking

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about. But I also want to note about

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this uh interview I did with California

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Governor Gavin Newsome over the weekend

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for the latest episode of On with Caris

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Fischer. Um, it's really interesting

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because one of the issues was all the

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misinformation

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uh online. It was really quite, it

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wasn't just something you tweeted, but

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it was all over the place misreporting

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where he stands on all this. Let's

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listen to what he told me. And this was

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just a small piece of it cuz he went on

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for a while decrying Donald Trump's

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action. Let's go.

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>> And that's Donald Trump, the chaos

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president, this wrecking ball president

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across the board. Destruction is not

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strength.

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And once again, we've seen him destroy

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not our not only our allies in

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relationship to the rest of the world,

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but we're seeing him destroy any

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capacity to explain fundamentally what

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the core American interest is at this

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moment to declare war, to go to war with

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a regime. And all of this is playing out

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in real time.

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>> Um, news posted on X over the weekend,

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the corrupt or repressive Iranian regime

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must never have nuclear weapons.

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leadership of Iran must go, but that

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doesn't justify the president of the

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United States engaging in a legal,

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dangerous war. Very similar to what

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Senator Warner said. All all the

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senators pretty much said, "This guy

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deserved to die, and at the same time,

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this seems like a chaotic mess." Um,

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let's let's talk about a little bit

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about it and and especially the economic

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impact that the fighting has effectively

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shut down the straight of Hormuz, which

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carries 1/5if of the world's oil supply.

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As is recording, oil prices are up about

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7%, gas futures jumped as much as 9%. Uh

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spike in energy places, supply chain

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strain, broader ripple effects across

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the global economy, especially because

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of the uncertainty. And the last thing I

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would note um uh is that and and it's

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interesting because Trump does respond

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to this is that um there's much

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reporting including in the Washington

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Post um about how he he was convinced to

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do it through uh Muhammad bin Salman and

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Benjamin Netanyahu and even JD Vance and

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General Kaine did not want to do this

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but here we are. So what do you talk a

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little bit about the where it's going to

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go from here and your thoughts?

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Well, the the honest answer is I have no

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idea or I I have a a vision for where

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you hope it goes, but I'm sympathetic to

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Governors Newsome and Senator Warner.

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the notion that we're going to end up

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after Trump is gone,

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we have to be thoughtful about how we

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improve the tensil strength of our

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democracy by stopping the slow but

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steady leak of power from Congress which

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is the people to the president under the

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oposis or cold comfort that they will

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stick to certain norms because

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effectively a president should not be

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able military action you can maybe

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justify but this is war. And I'm

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sympathetic to

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>> use the word war. Oh, go ahead.

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>> Pardon?

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>> He used the word war.

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>> I know this is war. That it is war. And

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I'm sympathetic to the notion that the

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reason we have 535 members of Congress

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representing, you know, two two per

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state in the Senate and one for every

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750,000 people is the American people

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are supposed to have a say. But

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Democrats, it's 7% are actually in favor

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of this. So there's going to need to be

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the best thing we could do coming out or

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one of the best things I think coming

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out of the Trump administration and this

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highlights that is to have structural

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reform around gerrymandering, citizens

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united and that Congress has to be

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involved or briefed or that we have to

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go back to this notion where only

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Congress can decide if in fact we go to

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we go to war. Now where could this go?

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As you know, I'm in favor, loosely

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speaking, around this action because I

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always like to ask like to ask myself

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what could go right.

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>> Iran is 90 million people, sits on the

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second largest natural gas reserves, the

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third largest oil reserves, incredible

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science, incredible universities,

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incredible entrepreneurial spirit.

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Actually quite a nonseular.

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>> It was, that's for sure.

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>> Non sec. Well, I would argue it's

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anyways fairly non-seular. a lot less

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anti-West than people have been led to

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believe by what I think is one of the

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most oppressive, brutal regimes in

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history. So, what could go right? You

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could have one of the largest economies

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in the Middle East become more pro-

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West. It's been punching below its

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weight class for 20 or 30 years now

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because of poor technology and

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sanctions. you could immediately see it

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uh come up and be an economic power that

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is pro- west, pro- trading, pro-

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capitalist. What effectively might be

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the low one of the biggest tax cuts in

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history if you didn't if you saw more

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consistent flows of oil and technology

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and a great trading partner. I actually

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think Europe would be the biggest

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beneficiary

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>> and turn what has been the primary agent

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of chaos and terror

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>> in an unstable region into something

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resembling I don't even call it pro-

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west but neutral west. So I think

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there's a lot that could go right here

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and I think the risk assessment provided

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to the president in my view had a lot of

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asymmetric upside. Now having said that

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what they missed here was part of the

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PAL doctrine and that is you have to

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have clearly articulated objectives

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>> or plans for next beyond

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>> well they haven't they and and to your

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point they just haven't been able to

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articulate in the last 24 hours what is

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the offramp and the objective here is it

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regime change is it a more friendly

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regime is it I mean what exactly

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>> and all that you're not going to get

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>> this notion that all of a sudden we're

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going to provide air

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and the Iranian people are going to rise

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up and overtake 150,000 members of the

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IRGC who are deeply integrated into

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>> they have outside plans. There's some

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great reporting on this by the way by by

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legitimate news organizations. They have

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h they have contingency plans in place

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for what happens if the dies and they're

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carrying them out.

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>> But but we okay but in Syria, Libya and

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Iraq

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uh these were autocracies with a central

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figure head. The RGC is very deeply

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embedded into the economy.

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>> Yeah.

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>> So when your mortgage and your salary is

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being paid by the RGC, it's not like,

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oh, okay, the top guy Assad is gone and

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boom, it's it's a new administration. So

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there's a lot about the ground game.

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There's a lot about intelligence assets.

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And if they had said, we are going to,

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for example, a potential offramp. We're

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going to neuter their navy. We're going

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to diminish their air defense

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capabilities. We're going to make sure

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for sure there is absolutely no ability

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to create or enrich nuclear stockpiles

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and then we're going to leave it up to

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the Iranian people. That's technically

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an offramp. But I have seen in the last

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24 hours them talk about regime change.

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No, this isn't regime change. So they

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haven't been able to articulate what is

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next.

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>> Well, I don't I don't believe they

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thought about it. I mean, one of the

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things that a lot of people are pointing

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out is is the involvement of Netanyahu

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and uh the head of Saudi Arabia who

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publicly had said he was against this

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but privately was quite for it and

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pressing for it. The linkage between the

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corruption with the Trump family and

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this coin operated presidency that I

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talk about all the time is really very

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clear because most I would say they're

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trying to come up with a story after the

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fact. Oh, it hasn't worked. It isn't an

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endless war. Although it feels kind of

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like an endless war. It feels very

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Bushian, right? Did you you definitely

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had echoes of that? It feel he I think

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he thought it was going to be like

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Venezuela, right? That it was like just

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take that guy out. And by the way, he's

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in business with the Maduro

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administration. He didn't regime change

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that place at all. Like speaking of

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regime change,

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>> this is much more complicated.

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>> I agree, but I think he thought it was

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like that.

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>> No, I'm I'm agreeing with you. This is

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not take out Maduro and and this is much

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more uh

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>> he just has has cowed the regime into

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it. But it's the same regime in this

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case. It's really fascinating how they

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have um put themselves into this economy

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in a way that's very hard to um to to

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get them out. Right. Exact. You know, of

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course, this is their point of these

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very corrupt and I would say evil mullas

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in in Iran. Um, but one of the things

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that's fascinating to me is one the the

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continued corruption of Trump's family

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and Trump with with in this region and

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second of all that he keeps calling have

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you noticed he's calling all I'm waiting

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for a call from him myself like he

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called Jake Tapper he called um you know

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a bunch of John Carl he's called all the

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regular old media people essentially or

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the people he he decries all the time

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and it seems like he's workshopping

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different reasons like it's that's so

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>> he's trying to trying to figure

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But there is again what could go right

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here. The most powerful instinct is

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survival. And what we pulled off here

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and when I say we I actually think it

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was more the MOSA than than us. We

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effectively and I don't think people

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really register how profound this was.

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Within about two hours we took out the

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equivalent of the president, the

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secretary of defense and the head of the

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joint chiefs.

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>> Right. They were all in the same place.

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But yes. and and then and what has got

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to be the strategic mistake of I would

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say the last five years other than the

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decision by Hamas to go into Israel um

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geopolitically they started uh attacking

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civilian targets within the

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>> idea fared Zakaria noted that this

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mistake

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>> I mean that's just okay you want to

00:16:14

isolate yourself from your from who

00:16:17

should naturally be sympathetic to you

00:16:20

now the the going back to this notion of

00:16:22

survival instinct At some point you got

00:16:24

to think the next level down and I don't

00:16:25

know if it's 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000

00:16:28

or 150,000 IRGC say okay we too really

00:16:32

like our families in this thing called

00:16:33

life maybe we need to come to some sort

00:16:35

of accommodation

00:16:37

with with the US and the west so

00:16:40

>> that would require as you know boots on

00:16:43

the ground and Trump didn't even roll

00:16:45

that out again like this I here's what

00:16:47

really drives me crazy this idea they're

00:16:49

like it's not endless war the other

00:16:50

presidents were just dumb It's the same

00:16:53

thing. You you know they're they're just

00:16:55

trying very hard to spin it. And by the

00:16:56

way, you you noted a poll that half

00:16:58

Americans support it. It's actually not

00:17:00

the case. Many of the polls are showing

00:17:01

25%. You should

00:17:03

>> I didn't say that. 55% of Republicans

00:17:05

and it's about 30% are indifferent. Now

00:17:07

amongst Democrats, it's 7%. And I'm

00:17:11

amongst the 7% of Democrats who support

00:17:14

this. But it's a little bit different

00:17:16

because okay what they're hoping for and

00:17:17

maybe it's it's a it's a hallucination

00:17:20

that it's not boots on the ground that

00:17:21

it's that it's sandals and sneakers and

00:17:23

slippers that the Iranian people

00:17:25

>> right

00:17:25

>> based on the problem is the 30,000

00:17:28

people that have been mowed down were

00:17:29

the front lines they were the Marines

00:17:30

they were the shock troops who were

00:17:32

willing to risk their lives

00:17:33

>> right

00:17:34

>> so the reality is kind of what the

00:17:36

offramp will be or how this plays out

00:17:39

>> probably plays out in the next week in

00:17:41

terms of the Iranian populace's ability

00:17:44

to fment and change on the ground

00:17:45

because the American public does not

00:17:47

have any appetite for boots on the

00:17:49

ground. But what I I talked to a senator

00:17:51

this morning, I'm like, isn't a

00:17:52

reasonable offramp that you would say,

00:17:55

okay, we're going to diminish their

00:17:56

ability to wreak havoc to a point, you

00:17:58

know, 0.1. We're going to control the

00:17:59

skies. We're going to diminish their

00:18:00

navy. We're not going to we're going to

00:18:01

clear out their mind sweepers from the

00:18:03

Straits of Hormuz. We're going to

00:18:05

absolutely ensure there is zero

00:18:06

capability nuclear. And then we're going

00:18:08

to declare

00:18:08

>> you said was obliterated in June. Just

00:18:10

let's point that out.

00:18:11

>> Fair point. Why did again more

00:18:13

inconsistency. Why did we need to go

00:18:15

back in to to diminish our nuclear

00:18:17

capacity when you said it was done 7

00:18:19

months ago?

00:18:20

>> So there is inconsistent messaging.

00:18:23

>> But I think the

00:18:24

>> in my opinion the opportunities here to

00:18:26

diminish the capacity to continue to

00:18:30

levy this depravity and oppression

00:18:31

amongst its populace and potentially

00:18:33

liberate one of the great cultures in

00:18:36

civilization's history that sits on

00:18:38

unbelievable economic potential economic

00:18:40

prosperity.

00:18:41

it there is a real potential upside

00:18:44

here.

00:18:44

>> You know where else there's a potential

00:18:45

of upside is Ukraine. Same thing like

00:18:47

this. So what's really interesting to

00:18:50

hear is he yells at Europe for not

00:18:51

pulling their fair share in defense.

00:18:53

Fine. I I can see that argument even

00:18:56

though he makes it in the crude and

00:18:57

repulsive way. Uh why isn't uh why isn't

00:19:01

Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this?

00:19:03

We're doing their cop duty and we happen

00:19:05

to have a corrupt cop on the beat.

00:19:07

>> Oh, Israel sacrif sacrifice. I'm talking

00:19:10

about you don't hear the same language,

00:19:12

right? Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia

00:19:14

wanted this to happen, they should pay

00:19:15

for it. Like, if that's really the

00:19:17

thing, why do I have to pay as an

00:19:19

American taxpayer

00:19:21

$270 million for three planes? Like,

00:19:23

that kind of stuff. And so, and why

00:19:25

aren't why isn't this money deployed

00:19:27

elsewhere that I think isn't our not me,

00:19:29

I'm not running this show, but like why

00:19:31

isn't Ukraine the same thing? Like

00:19:34

that's that's what's really interesting

00:19:36

because there's a country that is full

00:19:38

of like economic talk about economic

00:19:40

opportunities. Same thing. Let me focus

00:19:43

you on the toll on the US economy

00:19:45

because all these like a a free well

00:19:47

first of all every attempt at regime

00:19:49

change in the Middle East has failed

00:19:50

almost miserably for the United States

00:19:53

or or a version of regime change

00:19:55

Afghanistan everywhere everywhere we go.

00:19:58

Um

00:19:58

>> well I did to be fair I did work in the

00:20:00

Balkans. We have had successful

00:20:01

interventions in Kuwait. We successfully

00:20:04

repelled the difference there is we did

00:20:05

it multilaterally which

00:20:07

>> that's right

00:20:07

>> he's stupid to do here already Britain

00:20:09

our closest ally is humming and hawing

00:20:11

about letting us use their airfields

00:20:13

yeah

00:20:13

>> he wants to go it alone which is stupid

00:20:15

anyway I interrupted you talking about

00:20:16

the economics here

00:20:17

>> so I want to know about the e the effect

00:20:19

on the economy because one of the things

00:20:20

because these when people start a war it

00:20:23

tends to be in the 60s period right it's

00:20:26

25 and I get that the democrats don't

00:20:28

like it but in a 25 is a bad place to

00:20:30

start when you're doing a war which if

00:20:33

you remember remember the stud Scud and

00:20:35

everyone being vaguely excited when they

00:20:37

were doing the I mean my even myself

00:20:40

which is grotesque because I I I now

00:20:42

have children I'm like oh no no no but

00:20:45

um talk about the toll in the economy

00:20:47

because every and and the MAGA people

00:20:50

green um Carlson

00:20:53

more even more heinous people are

00:20:55

talking about this is not what we voted

00:20:58

for right this is not and and they're

00:21:00

trying very desperately to pretend it's

00:21:02

not an endless war. It's whatever word

00:21:04

they're going to use um is not going to

00:21:07

work with these people. They they he's

00:21:09

already struck seven countries, seven

00:21:11

events. Like he's done more war like

00:21:14

they it was interesting because Hillary

00:21:15

Clinton was so prey about exactly what

00:21:17

he would do here. He seems to like and

00:21:19

have an appetite for military action

00:21:22

because everything's going so badly for

00:21:24

him. So talk about the effect on the US

00:21:26

economy, oil prices, right? inflation

00:21:29

um more danger for the US in terms of of

00:21:33

attacks on our our own soil from the

00:21:35

Iranians. The CR I mean if you back

00:21:37

these Iranians into a corner they may do

00:21:39

something really dire here in this

00:21:41

country. What is the toll in the US

00:21:43

economy and let me uh add in that people

00:21:46

were using this word to cash in on

00:21:48

online betting markets which was

00:21:49

repulsive. it. Uh, Kalshi reportedly saw

00:21:52

$36 million in bet volume related to

00:21:54

whether or not there will be regime

00:21:55

change in Iran. On Poly Market, 529

00:21:58

million was traded on contracts tied to

00:22:00

the timing of the strikes and some of

00:22:02

them seem rather suspect. Poly Market

00:22:04

defended its decision to allow betting

00:22:06

on the Star War saying it's invaluable

00:22:07

source of news and answers. It feels

00:22:09

like profiteering to me. Um, but talk a

00:22:12

little bit about the impact on the

00:22:13

economy. What what's next if under think

00:22:17

of three two scenarios? what's next for

00:22:20

the economy.

00:22:20

>> Just just to go in reverse order, I

00:22:22

actually would argue that that we have

00:22:26

diminished I mean you have what is um

00:22:29

what was the superpower in the region

00:22:31

with their proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, the

00:22:33

Houthis wreaking havoc economically and

00:22:37

in terms of oppression of different

00:22:39

people in the region and their

00:22:41

organizing principle was death to Israel

00:22:43

and death to America. And I would argue

00:22:45

that even if we don't have the regime

00:22:48

change or a quoteunquote liberated uh

00:22:50

capitalist westfriendly Iran that their

00:22:53

ability to strike at us and our proxies

00:22:56

overseas and our bases is actually been

00:22:58

diminished that that they're not now we

00:23:01

need to be more worried. I think we need

00:23:03

to actually

00:23:04

>> be less worried. There are two scenarios

00:23:06

here. One scenario is we end up in

00:23:07

another forever war that explodes our

00:23:09

deficits and we keep incrementally

00:23:11

making excuses for you know trying to

00:23:13

impose democracy which is an oxymoron

00:23:17

and oil prices the straight of horm gets

00:23:19

gets blocked off and oil prices

00:23:21

skyrocket now to a certain extent if you

00:23:23

wanted to be really mavavelian that

00:23:25

doesn't hurt us that much because we are

00:23:27

energy independent who this really is

00:23:29

hurting both Venezuela and Iran is China

00:23:33

80% of Iran's oil was going to China the

00:23:36

same with Venezuela. So, we can survive

00:23:38

an oil shock, but you could have you

00:23:41

could have an increase in deficits of a

00:23:43

forever war, uh disruption in supply

00:23:46

chain, uh straining our straining our

00:23:49

relationships with the allies. I

00:23:51

personally think there's more asymmetric

00:23:52

upside where we unlock

00:23:55

um uh stronger oil flows, better

00:23:57

technology, a potential trading partner

00:24:00

for Europe, for Europe and the US. And I

00:24:03

would argue I would bet that I believe

00:24:05

in 6 months that oil prices will be

00:24:08

lower uh than they are today. Now to

00:24:10

your point about cost and economics, I

00:24:13

am sympathetic to the left's view, many

00:24:15

people on the left, that these forever

00:24:17

wars and foreign intervention and

00:24:19

imperialist

00:24:20

imposing our own values on other

00:24:22

cultures and other nations is not only

00:24:24

uh wrong, it is just really

00:24:26

expensive. I'm sympathetic to that. What

00:24:28

I'm not sympathetic to,

00:24:30

>> can I make a correction? It's Charlie

00:24:31

Kirk talked about this. The right, this

00:24:33

has been an animating issue.

00:24:36

>> I was just about to get there, Cara. The

00:24:37

right has a very strong isolationist

00:24:39

spent. What is inconsistent for me? It

00:24:42

is consistent to say, "Let's focus on

00:24:45

let's focus on our problems

00:24:46

domestically. Let's spend money

00:24:48

domestically. Let's not run up deficits

00:24:50

with tax cuts and forever wars in a

00:24:52

macho military. and let's stay out of

00:24:54

other people's knitting recognizing that

00:24:55

we respect the right their right to to

00:24:58

do what you know to govern themselves

00:24:59

and and and

00:25:01

shape their own future. What is totally

00:25:03

inconsistent is the far right or the

00:25:05

rights isolationist rhetoric while

00:25:07

approving a $1.1 trillion military

00:25:10

budget. Because my view is the only

00:25:12

rationale for having a $1.1 trillion

00:25:14

military budget is quite frankly is if

00:25:17

at a on regular basis you're going to go

00:25:19

on your toes because if we don't want to

00:25:21

get involved in this kind of foreign

00:25:23

adventures or misadventures, whatever

00:25:24

you want to characterize it, there's no

00:25:26

risk of Canada invading us. Let's take

00:25:28

our military budget down to 300 billion

00:25:30

and pay off our deficit. So I've never

00:25:32

understood the rights fascination with

00:25:34

ridiculous military spending and then

00:25:36

this isolationist complexion. I

00:25:39

personally think the upside over the

00:25:40

medium and the long term here

00:25:41

economically with a peaceful Middle East

00:25:44

once its primary sponsor of terror is

00:25:46

neutered here. I think it actually I

00:25:48

think this over the medium and the long

00:25:50

term could be really good for Europe.

00:25:52

And if we could figure out a way to end

00:25:53

the war in Ukraine, figure out a way to

00:25:56

have a neutral west. uh Iran, I think

00:26:00

you're going to see the largest tax cut

00:26:02

in history because I think the flows of

00:26:03

oil will take g will cut oil probably in

00:26:06

half and you'll have an incredible

00:26:08

trading partner with what is one of the

00:26:09

most productive capitalist in many ways

00:26:12

societies

00:26:13

in history and that's the Persian

00:26:15

people.

00:26:16

>> Yeah, that is true. I I understand one

00:26:19

of the things that troubles me is this

00:26:21

the one is that he really doesn't seem

00:26:23

to have a plan and he's the president,

00:26:25

right? and that people within his

00:26:27

administration,

00:26:27

>> he'll call you and ask you for your

00:26:28

plan.

00:26:30

>> My plan is for you to step down, but

00:26:31

then I would get JD Vance, but that's my

00:26:34

suggestion. Um, and you should go off

00:26:36

and spend all the money you've stolen

00:26:38

from the American people. But, um, but

00:26:41

one of the um, one of the things that I

00:26:43

think about a lot is what that that this

00:26:46

is done in such a haphazard way without

00:26:48

the involvement of Congress, right? That

00:26:50

really is troublesome. and that these

00:26:53

these Republicans who were against these

00:26:55

things immediately get in line. Now

00:26:58

look, Lindsey Graham, that southern

00:26:59

bell, has always been wanting to do

00:27:02

this, right? And now he wants to go from

00:27:04

he is a southern bell.

00:27:06

>> And uh and he's uh he's he's wanted to

00:27:09

do this. He wants to do Cuba next. Let's

00:27:10

do Cuba next. Right? That's the whole

00:27:12

thing. This is also he just in his

00:27:15

mistaken

00:27:16

>> Cuba isn't blinding its women. It's not

00:27:18

hanging teenage girls and then

00:27:20

sanctioning rape of them. He said Cuba.

00:27:23

He did. And

00:27:23

>> yeah, I agree. No, I'm I'm saying that

00:27:25

makes in my opinion, as much as a war

00:27:27

hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to

00:27:29

invade Cuba.

00:27:30

>> Well, I think that's next. It seems like

00:27:32

they're just going to get bored over

00:27:33

here and come over here. But this is

00:27:34

something Lindsey Graham has wanted

00:27:36

forever in his mis uh in his endless and

00:27:39

sad attempt to be more masculine in some

00:27:42

fashion. So, fine, fine, Lindsay. That's

00:27:45

fine. But one of the things that really

00:27:47

drives me crazy is these people are so

00:27:50

um they shift these people say one thing

00:27:53

one week and then shift it the next

00:27:55

week. Like look the I know you like to

00:27:58

attack the left but they're sticking to

00:27:59

their guns on these kind of things.

00:28:01

They're still

00:28:01

>> I like to attack what?

00:28:02

>> Oh, the left a lot. But the right just

00:28:04

shifts it. Like it's like we're against

00:28:06

it. We're against it. We're against it.

00:28:07

Charlie Kirk said let's not be dragged

00:28:10

into this by so and so. It's let's focus

00:28:12

here. Okay, then let's cut our military

00:28:14

budget to 300 billion.

00:28:16

>> I get it. I get it. But I just don't see

00:28:18

why they don't they shift this way. It's

00:28:20

really it's it's sad because I like when

00:28:23

there's argument over what we should do

00:28:26

here in a way that everybody gets

00:28:28

>> and it's meant to be a discourse in the

00:28:30

Congress. I agree with that.

00:28:32

>> Barry Goldwater Barry Goldwater called

00:28:34

this in the 70s. He said that we have

00:28:36

become dangerously used to a slow leak

00:28:38

of power from from the co-equal branches

00:28:40

of government and Congress to the

00:28:42

president. And what kept that mostly in

00:28:43

check was a series of norms where the

00:28:46

president would go and inform the Senate

00:28:48

intelligence committee or the the

00:28:49

defense,

00:28:50

>> you know, the the people in the the

00:28:53

people on the defense committee that he

00:28:54

would give them a heads up. He'd invite

00:28:56

them to the White House and say, "This

00:28:58

is what we're thinking. What do you

00:28:59

think?" Those norms are gone. And so

00:29:02

there's got to be unless there is

00:29:03

structural reform around what it means

00:29:05

to have co-equal brown. Republicans are

00:29:07

resigning from Congress because they're

00:29:08

like why the am I here?

00:29:09

>> Yeah. Yeah.

00:29:11

>> The speaker of the house Yeah.

00:29:13

>> is not Mike Johnson. He's the speaker of

00:29:15

the white house. He's there to run rough

00:29:16

shaw

00:29:17

>> over people in the minority party are

00:29:20

used to getting

00:29:22

over. They're used to having no

00:29:23

power. But Republicans are like, "Let me

00:29:25

get this. I stuck around to be in the

00:29:27

majority such that I could represent my

00:29:29

people and get policies through and I'm

00:29:30

not even being consulted on this

00:29:32

>> No. And on the on the Democratic, I'd

00:29:34

say centrist conservative. I have never

00:29:36

seen Senator Warner who I consider

00:29:38

pretty cons pretty like moderate more

00:29:40

than I mean I think he's often we often

00:29:42

disagree on a lot of stuff. He was

00:29:44

incandescent. I you know because he he

00:29:47

sees these things. He knows he has so

00:29:49

much experience in Senate intelligence

00:29:51

etc etc. And to watch people who had

00:29:53

said the very opposite shift was really

00:29:57

something because at the very bottom of

00:29:59

this, it puts people's lives at risk

00:30:02

unnecessarily. And not just American

00:30:04

troops, which is terrible. It's people

00:30:07

on the ground there, Iranian citizens,

00:30:10

which American uh troops and I worry

00:30:14

about American, you know, people

00:30:16

attacking here. And it just creates a

00:30:19

situation that when you there's just a

00:30:22

this guy this guy's got to have a better

00:30:24

reason than to call someone and have a

00:30:26

different reason every minute. And we'll

00:30:27

see its effect on the the stock market's

00:30:29

not loving this at all. Um but we'll

00:30:32

see. We'll see where it goes.

00:30:33

>> But you brought up Kelshi.

00:30:34

>> Yeah.

00:30:34

>> And what's fascinating about these

00:30:36

things is they tend to be right that

00:30:37

there's a wisdom of the crowds. And when

00:30:40

you have Senator Warner who has just had

00:30:43

a lot, this is not his first rodeo. has

00:30:45

had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs

00:30:48

come before him and explain their plans.

00:30:51

And when you have uh Senator Mark Kelly

00:30:54

who's actually flown these missions, if

00:30:57

you don't if you don't take advantage of

00:30:59

the benefit of their insight, even if

00:31:01

they don't agree with you, you're not

00:31:03

taking advantage of the greatest depth

00:31:05

the greatest the greatest IP depth of

00:31:08

knowledge and experience in military

00:31:09

history. And that's amongst quite

00:31:11

frankly many of our members of Congress.

00:31:14

If if you're not bringing Senator

00:31:15

Representative Seth Molton in and

00:31:18

saying, "Hey, when you were on the

00:31:19

ground in Iraq, I mean, instead we're

00:31:22

we're consulting with a senator from

00:31:25

Florida, a former Fox TV host

00:31:30

>> who was

00:31:30

>> and a reality game show host. They're

00:31:33

making these decisions

00:31:34

>> and and the FBI is being run by a guy

00:31:36

who likes to party in the middle of a

00:31:38

possible terror terrorist action in this

00:31:41

country. We're they're we're they're

00:31:43

just going to make and this is I always

00:31:45

like to try and reverse engineer to a a

00:31:48

personal learning here. One of my

00:31:50

biggest flaws biggest flaws as a man is

00:31:53

I thought that masculinity and

00:31:54

leadership was making a quick survey of

00:31:57

the situation and then making a decision

00:31:59

and then it was my job to talk everyone

00:32:01

into my decision. No, it's not.

00:32:03

Leadership is listening and occasionally

00:32:07

going, "Oh, I got it wrong. We

00:32:09

need to switch course." I don't make

00:32:12

now, I didn't learn this until I was

00:32:13

literally 50. I don't make a big

00:32:15

decision personally, financially,

00:32:18

professionally without talking to three

00:32:20

or four really smart people

00:32:22

because you can't read the label from

00:32:24

inside of the bottle. And the US

00:32:26

Congress is full of some of the most

00:32:28

impressive, experienced, smartest people

00:32:30

in the world.

00:32:31

>> And beyond that, there's people

00:32:32

>> and also they have this incredible task

00:32:35

of representing their constituency to

00:32:37

not check in with them. I I think

00:32:39

Senator Warner is ep apoplelectic

00:32:41

because he's like, "For God's sakes, we

00:32:44

can save you from yourself."

00:32:45

>> That's right. That's right. He wasn't

00:32:46

out of ego. I just I've never seen him

00:32:48

do that. It was really interesting.

00:32:49

Anyway, we have to move on. This is a

00:32:51

developing story. We'll see what

00:32:53

happens. This seems like a very, as

00:32:54

Gavin Newsome said, a chaotic White

00:32:56

House. It might be trying to um get us

00:32:59

away from the Epstein files or other

00:33:01

issues at home. Um we didn't even talk

00:33:03

about the distraction, but we need to

00:33:05

move on. Uh we'll go on a quick break.

00:33:07

We come back. Trump targets Anthropic,

00:33:09

another incredible tech company in what

00:33:11

former Trump official calls attempted

00:33:13

corporate murder.

00:33:15

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00:34:19

>> Scott, we're back. President Trump

00:34:20

ordered federal agencies to stop using

00:34:22

anthropic after it did not come uh to a

00:34:25

deal with the Pentagon on safety. The

00:34:26

Defense Department will phase out the

00:34:28

use of anthropic products over the next

00:34:29

6 months, which will, I will tell you,

00:34:31

hurt national security. Anthropic plans

00:34:33

to challenge a supply chain designation

00:34:35

in court. Good for them. When it comes

00:34:36

to the app store, Anthropic is winning.

00:34:38

Claude is the number one spot in the

00:34:39

Apple's free apps as we tape. Anthropic

00:34:42

also faced a major outage on Monday with

00:34:44

the company saying it's been dealing

00:34:46

with quote unprecedented demand. Uh,

00:34:48

meanwhile, Open AI, of course, Sam ever

00:34:51

the opportunist. Open AAI Sam Alman

00:34:54

reached an agreement with the Pentagon.

00:34:55

The company claims it found a way to

00:34:57

ensure its technologies would adhere to

00:34:58

its safety principles by installing

00:35:00

technical guardrails. However, when Sam

00:35:02

Alman was asked on asked whether he

00:35:04

worried about there be future disputes

00:35:05

with the Pentagon over what's legal, he

00:35:07

responded, "Yes, I am." "Oh my god, Sam,

00:35:10

I got to tell you, you need to stop

00:35:11

talking." A former Trump official called

00:35:13

Enthropic order attempted corporate

00:35:15

murder. Um it's uh it's the backdrop of

00:35:18

OpenAI raising 110 billion its latest

00:35:20

funding round, including $50 billion

00:35:22

from Amazon and $30 billion from both

00:35:24

Nvidia and Soft Bank. in these continue

00:35:26

roundtpping kind of deals. Um I I I I

00:35:30

read a lot this weekend about this and

00:35:32

one of the people involved was a guy

00:35:34

named Emil Michael who used to be an

00:35:36

executive at Uber who was possibly one

00:35:38

of the most bullying and awful

00:35:40

executives and full of all manner of um

00:35:43

bad behaviors. uh when there I I he left

00:35:47

the company. We wrote some stories of

00:35:49

this thing he was involved in that was

00:35:51

just so um not a good behavior I would

00:35:55

say. Um I have spent time with him. He's

00:35:58

a he he was the one that was was was

00:36:00

negotiating this. Uh not a surprise. Um

00:36:03

he kept calling Dario a Modi from

00:36:05

anthropic godlike god. He thinks he's

00:36:08

god or whatever. I've never met anyone

00:36:10

who thinks he's god more than a Michael.

00:36:12

And he's usually a toad to more powerful

00:36:14

people. in this case, Pete Hegsath. Um,

00:36:17

anyway, uh, it seems a ridiculous

00:36:20

overreach on the behalf of government.

00:36:22

Probably anthropic will win. I think it

00:36:24

probably will benefit from this as

00:36:26

you've noted many times. Uh, any more

00:36:28

thoughts on this? I don't think we're

00:36:29

any safer as a people for having done

00:36:32

this.

00:36:33

>> I don't I think what people miss is that

00:36:36

over the last 12 months out of 23

00:36:38

markets, we're the 21st best performing

00:36:41

or the third worst.

00:36:42

>> Yep. And what has changed? We've had

00:36:45

incredible innovation.

00:36:46

>> Is up 50,000. Good.

00:36:48

>> Sorry.

00:36:48

>> We've had inc. We still have incredible

00:36:50

innovation. We dominate the most

00:36:52

tectonic shift in technology. The thing

00:36:54

that's changing is I believe we're

00:36:57

experiencing a rotation out of US stocks

00:37:00

and a compression of multiples. And the

00:37:02

reason why is the following. The

00:37:04

underpinnings of why so much capital

00:37:06

flows into the US from every other

00:37:08

market in the world is our incredible IP

00:37:11

developed mostly through funding of

00:37:12

research at universities. An incredibly

00:37:14

risk aggressive culture based on

00:37:16

immigrants who take huge risk to get

00:37:18

here. Um uh and also I think more than

00:37:22

anything probably it or chicken and egg

00:37:26

it attracts the deepest pools of capital

00:37:28

in history. There's $5 million in

00:37:30

venture capital for every startup in the

00:37:32

US. There's only 1 million for every

00:37:34

startup in Europe. Anthropic started six

00:37:37

years ago. If it was in Europe, it'd be

00:37:39

one of the 10 most valuable companies.

00:37:41

But when government starts selectively

00:37:44

punishing and rewarding companies based

00:37:46

on political favoritism, that capital

00:37:49

gets scared and starts withdrawing.

00:37:51

Because why do you invest in open AI or

00:37:54

Anthropic if you don't know who you're

00:37:57

waking up next to in terms of its

00:37:58

ability to raise capital based on the

00:38:00

blood sugar level of whoever's

00:38:02

president? So this is not only the wrong

00:38:05

thing to do and makes us feel less safe

00:38:06

and is probably illegal, it's going to

00:38:08

hit your 401k, folks. in even in places

00:38:12

like the Gulf that are run by

00:38:13

autocracies, they have a real respect

00:38:16

for systemic laws in the market cuz they

00:38:19

recognize the moment they start

00:38:20

with companies based on their own who's

00:38:23

in or out of political favor,

00:38:25

>> it's Russia

00:38:27

>> which has no stock market because nobody

00:38:29

wants to invest and then find out the

00:38:32

CEO got a call from the wrong person or

00:38:34

pissed got on the wrong list and is all

00:38:37

of a sudden out of business. So even in

00:38:40

China, people I think they learned their

00:38:43

lesson lesson a little bit with DD where

00:38:44

they got angry at DD and basically

00:38:46

crushed DD. They're now you know they

00:38:49

have a lot of respect for for

00:38:51

essentially government u regulatory

00:38:53

bodies consistent application of rule of

00:38:55

law trying not to play favorites. So

00:38:58

this will the immediate reaction will be

00:39:01

okay they're wrong this is illegal fine.

00:39:05

And also from a commercial standpoint,

00:39:07

I've been saying for the last year that

00:39:09

someone has an incredible commercial

00:39:11

opportunity to say enough,

00:39:14

>> right?

00:39:14

>> We're the good guys. We do not buy into

00:39:16

this. If this if this costs us money in

00:39:18

the short term, fine. But the very

00:39:20

American values that gave us so much

00:39:22

opportunity are under attack and we're

00:39:24

just not down with it. And I don't I

00:39:26

don't know if you remember me saying

00:39:26

this. I said 6 months ago the biggest

00:39:29

opportunity for for Nike which is

00:39:30

trading at a 10-year low was to run a

00:39:33

bunch of ads saying we're about American

00:39:36

values and that what's going on here is

00:39:37

wrong. What's interesting is the corp

00:39:40

corporate America needed a hero and it

00:39:42

looks like it's Daario.

00:39:44

>> I know it's interesting.

00:39:45

>> What's really interesting here is I

00:39:47

think and and it's finally happening.

00:39:49

They're shaping up to be Joe Frasier and

00:39:51

Muhammad Ali here. And I think that

00:39:53

Dario is being very smart. And I think

00:39:56

it's up to us and the media or

00:39:57

progressive progressives and I'm

00:39:59

obviously stitching this into the rises

00:40:01

and unsubscribe thinking. I think it's

00:40:03

time to start figuring out if there's a

00:40:05

way to be more commercially supportive

00:40:07

of anthropic and less supportive of Open

00:40:09

AI. Basically, OpenAI has decided to

00:40:11

enable and be complicit in the Trump

00:40:14

administration's efforts and Daario and

00:40:16

Anthropic have said, "No, we're we're

00:40:18

not going along here. We're not going to

00:40:19

be intimidated. This is quite frankly,

00:40:22

Cara, I have been waiting for this

00:40:23

matchup for years."

00:40:24

>> I know. Yeah, I know you have. Let me

00:40:26

say I don't I don't know Dario Emodi. I

00:40:28

don't actually. And he might be

00:40:30

arrogant, which is in line with most

00:40:32

people in tech. That may be true, but I

00:40:34

I do know Emil Michael who has been who

00:40:37

did negotiate this. And I do know David

00:40:39

Sachs and both of them are Aryan

00:40:42

operators, ceaseless bullies. Um, and

00:40:45

and anxious toadies to the powerful in

00:40:48

my experience of covering them. Um, Sam

00:40:51

Alman is much a little more complex, but

00:40:53

he's a gifted opportunist, which doesn't

00:40:55

make him that different from anybody in

00:40:56

Silicon Valley. Um, and is has has made

00:41:00

his has made his choice here, right?

00:41:02

That's he wants the business. And so I I

00:41:06

it's a really knowing the characters

00:41:08

involved here. And then on the top of

00:41:09

it, you have an idiot like uh a

00:41:12

like uh Pete Hegsath who doesn't know

00:41:14

what's happening, communicating to

00:41:16

someone he who's even more moronic on

00:41:18

these issues, which is Donald Trump who

00:41:19

I I think just I suspect Saxs is

00:41:22

whispering in his ear and Neil Michael's

00:41:24

whispering in Heg's ear. And this is all

00:41:28

a Silicon Valley beef right between and

00:41:30

among these people. a meal was was let

00:41:33

was had to leave Uber under very um not

00:41:37

great circumstances uh was pushed out.

00:41:40

Um I think all these people is payback

00:41:43

for other people. It's just there's a

00:41:44

lot of Silicon Valley drama happening

00:41:46

here and I don't know Darod I don't I

00:41:49

don't I really don't. It's unusual that

00:41:51

I don't and I've asked for interviews

00:41:52

with him. He has not agreed to do an

00:41:54

interview with me. Uh thanks Chris uh

00:41:56

Nely. Um but I I do and he did a very

00:42:01

good interview with CBS News actually.

00:42:03

Um which I thought was interesting.

00:42:05

>> He handled himself really well.

00:42:06

>> He handled himself really well.

00:42:07

>> He he starched his hat wide in that

00:42:09

interview.

00:42:10

>> Yeah, it was a good interview. Um but

00:42:12

one of the things that I know is the

00:42:15

people on the other side of him are very

00:42:19

people I covered for years who are just

00:42:20

not good. Uh not not um how can I say

00:42:24

this nicely? Uh they're they're the

00:42:27

worst I of of the people I had to cover

00:42:30

over the many years. I have to say

00:42:31

they're literally the worst. And uh and

00:42:34

and to see them in these positions of

00:42:36

power is making these decisions and

00:42:39

hurting a company that just doesn't want

00:42:40

to do business with them. And actually

00:42:42

Michael tweeted out against Emodi weeks

00:42:45

ago. You know, it's so unprofessional as

00:42:48

a government like it's so it's such

00:42:50

based in beefs that were happening

00:42:52

elsewhere. And Emil, I'm really I had

00:42:55

ended up having drinks with him after he

00:42:56

was sort of drumed out of Uber and he he

00:43:00

said something to me. It was so strange.

00:43:01

He goes, "Well, I'm so glad we can be

00:43:03

friends." And I remember saying to him,

00:43:04

"We're not friends. I think what you did

00:43:06

there is terrible. I don't know what

00:43:09

where you operate, but let him just do

00:43:12

what he wants. And don't don't bring

00:43:13

your stupid insecure beefs out on the

00:43:16

thing. And it will benefit Anthropic. It

00:43:18

will I think he I think he's handling

00:43:20

himself. And he may be arrogant. He may

00:43:22

have a god clumps. I don't know. I don't

00:43:24

know. But he's certainly not like these

00:43:26

people. And in that case, the bar is

00:43:28

low. I've had my say.

00:43:29

>> I think it's a big opportunity. I think

00:43:31

I think Americans and consumers are so

00:43:33

ready to vote with their pocketbooks.

00:43:36

And

00:43:37

>> Sam I don't think Sam has acquitted

00:43:38

himself. Well, um I'm not going to have

00:43:41

advertising. We would never do porn.

00:43:42

Well, I need to raise money. Never mind.

00:43:45

And the largest customer in the world,

00:43:47

which is the US government, needs to

00:43:49

have a series of systemic laws that

00:43:51

don't that these are the rules you get

00:43:53

to play by. And full stop. Everyone is

00:43:56

entitled to and obligated to the same

00:43:58

set of rules, not who who you like or

00:44:01

who you don't like. And which kind of

00:44:03

leads into our next story, which is

00:44:05

Netflix and Paramount,

00:44:07

>> right? Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott,

00:44:10

let's take a quick break. When we come

00:44:11

back, Netflix emerges as a winner after

00:44:13

losing the Warner Brothers battle.

00:44:16

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vanta.com/pivot.

00:45:24

Scott, we're back. Netflix may have lost

00:45:26

the battle for Warner Brothers, but it's

00:45:28

looking like a winner. The company stock

00:45:30

surged 14% of it formally exited the

00:45:32

bidding war. It also now has 2.8 8

00:45:34

billion in the bank after Paramount paid

00:45:36

the Warner Brothers breakup fee. Went

00:45:38

after the plan all along was to saddle

00:45:39

Paramount with debt, drive up the price,

00:45:41

and walk away with more money. Ted Sando

00:45:43

said there are easier ways to make $2.8

00:45:45

billion. Very funny. He's also trashing

00:45:48

it so beautifully. I have to say what a

00:45:49

pro the way like it's ridiculously

00:45:52

expensive. He's dropping all sorts of

00:45:54

bone m that Bloomberg interview you did.

00:45:56

Um I'm hoping to do an interview with

00:45:58

him relatively soon. He noted the

00:46:00

Paramount deal is dependent on cost

00:46:02

cutting leading to less production, less

00:46:04

people working. He's 100% right. On the

00:46:07

Paramount front, CEO David Ellison, who

00:46:09

got strafed by Barry Diller as a stunt

00:46:11

pilot in a speech, another thing, just

00:46:14

announced that Paramount Plus and HBO

00:46:16

Max will be combined into one streaming

00:46:17

service. He also said there would be a

00:46:19

lot less, I think, a lot of cuts, $6

00:46:22

billion in cuts, that he can quickly

00:46:24

delever it. Nobody believes him or

00:46:26

thinks he's capable of doing it. uh

00:46:28

Sarandos had talked more about 16

00:46:30

billion. Let me just tell you Hollywood

00:46:33

uh look out below. This is this is look

00:46:36

I don't think Ellison means to be

00:46:38

incorrect but he is incorrect about

00:46:40

what's about to happen here because the

00:46:41

pressures on this much debt. I talked to

00:46:44

as you know Bill Cohen went because you

00:46:46

weren't around last weekend but this

00:46:48

much debt is enormous amounts of debt.

00:46:51

It's like crazy. They don't have enough

00:46:53

um income to they have barely enough

00:46:56

income so they can't grow. they have to

00:46:58

cut. There's going to be there's obvious

00:47:00

duplication that they will cut. But even

00:47:03

more than that, anything they say at

00:47:05

this point is just absolutely untrue.

00:47:08

It's just and I again I don't think they

00:47:10

mean it that way. I think they believe

00:47:12

it that they can, you know, turn um

00:47:16

into a into chicken into chicken

00:47:19

salad. But most smart math math people

00:47:23

don't think they can do it, especially

00:47:25

with competitors like Netflix breathing

00:47:26

down and YouTube breathing down their

00:47:28

neck. Your thoughts?

00:47:30

>> Well, I I think I've been consistent on

00:47:32

this. The biggest losers are the

00:47:33

creative community. Yeah.

00:47:35

>> They don't realize it.

00:47:36

>> I don't know. Half a million of them

00:47:38

just got lined up and shot.

00:47:40

>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean they're they're the

00:47:42

amount of AI slop we're going to see

00:47:44

come out of Paramount and Warner trying

00:47:47

to pass for, you know, great

00:47:50

breakthrough content. It's just going to

00:47:52

be, like I said, you know, in space, no

00:47:55

one can hear you scream. Oh, trust me,

00:47:57

you're going to hear a lot of people

00:47:58

scream. And the biggest winner, hands

00:48:02

down,

00:48:04

um, and I told Ted this. I said I if you

00:48:08

walk from this, you realize your stock's

00:48:10

going to go up 10%. I was wrong. In the

00:48:12

last 5 days, the stock's up 30%.

00:48:15

>> Yeah. Back to other levels. Yeah.

00:48:17

>> Okay. So, let's look at it this way.

00:48:20

They quote unquote technically save $120

00:48:22

billion by not acquiring it and their

00:48:26

stocks up a hundred billion. Cara, they

00:48:29

could go buy Disney right now.

00:48:31

>> Yeah.

00:48:31

>> For walking from Warner Brothers. So,

00:48:35

and if I were them and I was Ted and I'd

00:48:37

be pissed off, I'd be firing up my

00:48:40

lobbyists and my lawyers and be like,

00:48:42

delay an obvious make it create so much

00:48:44

havoc for this deal to close. And by the

00:48:46

way, every studio, every creative,

00:48:48

they're all going to want to go to work

00:48:50

for one place. Okay. Do I want if I'm

00:48:53

pitching I just had my uh latest book

00:48:56

option for a series and for a

00:48:58

documentary, which means absolutely

00:48:59

nothing I've figured out in Hollywood.

00:49:01

>> Your man, your notes on being a man.

00:49:04

>> Yeah. for an original scripted series

00:49:05

and a documentary. Anyways,

00:49:07

>> think of it as an R-rated Wonder Years

00:49:09

is how I've been pitching it.

00:49:11

>> Who's playing me?

00:49:13

>> Erve Vill

00:49:16

>> uh uh Erve Villiches in a little tiny

00:49:19

sou. I see Shalom plays

00:49:22

>> with a with a puppy German Shepherd.

00:49:23

>> No, Shalom work. He looks like a teenage

00:49:25

boy, too.

00:49:26

>> Anyways, uh

00:49:27

>> Shalom. So,

00:49:30

these guys, the amount of money, um, let

00:49:33

me put this way. Say, say you're in the

00:49:36

creative community and you have the

00:49:37

hottest script or you're the hottest

00:49:39

actor and you have offers from from the

00:49:42

Paramount Studio, from Warner, or from

00:49:45

Netflix, who are you absolutely going to

00:49:48

pick?

00:49:48

>> Netflix.

00:49:49

>> Oh my god, they're going to

00:49:51

>> every day of the week and twice on

00:49:52

Sunday. They look like heroes. You all

00:49:55

hated Netflix. Now you're going to love

00:49:56

them. It's really and and by the way,

00:49:58

when the Democrats come into power,

00:50:00

that's going to be good for

00:50:02

>> HBO just lost 30% of its value because

00:50:03

HBO's asset was it always was able to

00:50:06

punch above its weight class. It did two

00:50:08

billion in content relative to Netflix's

00:50:10

18 billion. But if there was a show

00:50:12

people were talking about around the

00:50:13

water cooler, whether it was Girls or

00:50:16

Euphoria or Game of Thrones or

00:50:18

Succession, it usually was HBO because

00:50:21

HBO's culture and ability when I'm

00:50:24

talking a lot about me, my favorite

00:50:26

subject, but when we pitched my big tech

00:50:28

series, everybody, all the creatives and

00:50:31

all the stars, they all wanted to go

00:50:32

with HBO.

00:50:33

>> Yeah.

00:50:34

>> They love Netflix, but if we had our

00:50:36

choice,

00:50:36

>> Yeah.

00:50:37

>> we would have gone with HBO. Guess what?

00:50:39

That just changed overnight. completely.

00:50:41

I wouldn't do a thing with them. I have

00:50:43

to say I've got some shows I I don't

00:50:45

have no interest.

00:50:46

>> What? So they can figure out how to

00:50:47

produce it for a third of the budget

00:50:48

using AI?

00:50:49

>> Yeah, you. Like and also one of the

00:50:52

things that's interesting is that there

00:50:53

there's there was an interesting

00:50:55

movement. And also I mean I think the

00:50:57

CNN part of it is a smaller part of it.

00:50:59

It still is going to be a lot of news,

00:51:01

right? It's still because it's CNN the

00:51:03

merger and they've already made a mess

00:51:05

of CBS. Um but they're going to make a

00:51:08

bigger mess of CNN. I I have heard from

00:51:10

so many HBO people that are like

00:51:13

like was everything in every like a

00:51:16

dozen HBO people CNN is losing its ever

00:51:19

love and mind right as they should and

00:51:21

they're like they're like what do we do

00:51:24

Cara and I'm like I don't know I'm not

00:51:25

going to be here so it's not like

00:51:29

I was like I don't know what to tell you

00:51:30

but you know I wouldn't work for those

00:51:32

hacks. Um, but one of the things uh

00:51:35

that's interesting is the idea that that

00:51:37

Netflix takes a little bit of this money

00:51:39

and hires like the like Anderson Cooper

00:51:41

and the best of them and creates a

00:51:43

little news service. I

00:51:46

>> they should like a really good one.

00:51:48

>> I talked to the woman who runs content

00:51:49

at and at and Netflix and I said I have

00:51:51

an idea.

00:51:51

>> Bella Bella.

00:51:52

>> Bella. Yeah.

00:51:53

>> Start something called the hour and hire

00:51:55

the twothirds of the people from 60

00:51:57

Minutes that would like to leave right

00:51:59

now.

00:52:00

>> Yeah. and have a show, weekly show

00:52:02

called the hour.

00:52:03

>> I'm like, I'll tell you who's good and

00:52:04

who's not. I like I

00:52:06

>> You don't think all of those people are

00:52:07

looking for a way to get off the get on

00:52:09

the last helicopter out of Saigon right

00:52:11

now?

00:52:11

>> Yeah. And a lot of them want to be

00:52:12

entrepreneurial. It's really

00:52:13

interesting. They they do see the need

00:52:15

to change out. I mean, obviously the

00:52:17

economics of a lot of broadcast and

00:52:20

cable television is out of whack with

00:52:22

the revenues clearly all through the

00:52:24

industry. By the way,

00:52:25

>> Netflix is up 30%. Netflix.

00:52:28

>> Netflix should

00:52:28

>> The market has decided that Netflix is

00:52:31

worth a hundred billion dollars more

00:52:33

>> more by

00:52:34

>> without

00:52:35

>> Yeah.

00:52:35

>> Warner Brothers,

00:52:36

>> you could spend a very little amount of

00:52:37

money putting together a really

00:52:39

interesting news offering. At the same

00:52:40

time, you know, as obviously CBS is

00:52:44

going to go is going right in a really

00:52:46

weak sauce way. It's really kind of

00:52:48

wimpy, right, and stupid, right? But,

00:52:50

uh, I mean, if you're going to be right,

00:52:51

go all the way to Fox. That's my

00:52:53

feeling. like and and it's it's it's an

00:52:55

ever dying audience by the way. Um and I

00:52:59

mean my mom's is a average listener

00:53:01

essentially. She's 92. Um but one of the

00:53:04

things that I think will help

00:53:05

>> Fox is doing really well actually.

00:53:06

>> Yeah, it has. That's right. You're not

00:53:07

going to get you're not catching Fox.

00:53:09

>> Here's a crazy stat. Especially more

00:53:10

moderates watch Fox and CNN right now.

00:53:12

>> Well, I'm not surprised. It's anyway one

00:53:15

of the because the news part is I mean

00:53:17

like Jennifer and there's several people

00:53:19

who are quite good over there but um

00:53:22

there's a lot of great people at CNN and

00:53:23

let me be clear there's a lot of great

00:53:24

reporters throughout that organization

00:53:26

and they do a great job. People tend to

00:53:28

focus on Scott Jennings at night when

00:53:30

there's lots of people but

00:53:32

>> you mean I feel stupider with Abby

00:53:34

Phillips.

00:53:35

>> Okay, stop sound stop Jennings is the

00:53:37

problem over there. So

00:53:38

>> but no CNN is the problem for putting

00:53:40

him on and having crossfire. that that

00:53:42

show is but I'm saying there's a lot

00:53:45

more to CNN than that show. So it gets a

00:53:47

lot of attention but one of the things

00:53:49

that I think is interesting is it really

00:53:51

opens up an opportunity for MS now

00:53:53

because it it they're they're by

00:53:55

themselves over there on the left like

00:53:57

it's a great business right like it's

00:53:59

just it's sort of like the fox of the

00:54:01

left and so they have a huge opportunity

00:54:04

it seems to me

00:54:04

>> if you are in love with tra this I'm not

00:54:07

>> you are in love with traditional media

00:54:08

this is who it's an opportunity for it's

00:54:10

an opportunity small opportunity

00:54:12

>> for Bill Cohen and and and Ben Thompson

00:54:15

and Cara Swisser.

00:54:17

>> I know that

00:54:17

>> you're about to see a massive diffusion

00:54:19

of power from these industrial brands.

00:54:21

>> It's already happening.

00:54:22

>> The means of production is way too

00:54:23

expensive to all these little media

00:54:25

company startups and substacks and

00:54:27

podcasts.

00:54:28

>> I agree.

00:54:29

>> And newsletters and this all this hand

00:54:31

ringing that, oh no, the Washington Post

00:54:33

can't go away. Doesn't matter,

00:54:35

folks. Y

00:54:36

>> those people are going to find their own

00:54:37

little

00:54:39

niche media companies and they're going

00:54:40

to punch above their weight class and

00:54:42

they're not going to be saddled by the

00:54:43

blood sugar level of a guy on human

00:54:45

growth hormone and I just think MS now

00:54:47

by itself being I think CNN should have

00:54:49

been independent would have given an

00:54:51

opportunity to be innovative. They have

00:54:53

an opportunity to be innovative. They

00:54:54

do. They absolutely do. And so that's a

00:54:57

good thing for them because they're

00:54:58

they're all by themselves over there.

00:54:59

>> This is the best use of CNN. We have an

00:55:02

iconic popular Gavin Newsome and he

00:55:04

stacks his cabinet with CNN anchors.

00:55:07

Dana Bash would make a great vice

00:55:09

president.

00:55:09

>> Yeah. Yeah. See, Dana does a great job.

00:55:11

There's a lot of really great there's

00:55:13

amazing people.

00:55:13

>> Michael, I think he could be secretary.

00:55:16

>> Anderson, I think, does a good job.

00:55:18

Every single Caitlyn Collins I have so

00:55:20

much admiration for her.

00:55:22

>> She can be ambassador to the EU. Okay.

00:55:24

Literally, I can pull I can pull

00:55:26

together a cabinet that looks like the

00:55:28

Kennedy administration from CNN

00:55:30

anchors

00:55:31

>> and it would be so much higher than Pete

00:55:33

Dag on any

00:55:34

>> think about it. Janine Pro that's I mean

00:55:37

look who are competing. I'm down I am

00:55:39

down for networks' cabinets at this

00:55:41

point. I think the CNN people are so

00:55:43

impressive.

00:55:44

>> Yes.

00:55:44

>> But they're all about to and they've

00:55:47

been doing this last two years. I'm

00:55:48

thinking about starting a podcast

00:55:49

because they're having the uncomfortable

00:55:51

conversation. I used to make 7 million a

00:55:52

year.

00:55:54

>> Not just CNN, it's throughout the It's

00:55:57

all the media people. They I

00:55:58

>> People anchor off the most money they've

00:56:00

ever made and think that's what I'm

00:56:01

worth. No one ever thinks to themselves,

00:56:03

"Wow, I'm overpaid right now." Guess

00:56:05

what? There's a I can produce I can

00:56:07

>> I can prove to you statistically at any

00:56:09

moment in time there's a 50% chance you

00:56:11

are overpaid right now relative to the

00:56:13

market.

00:56:13

>> I I'm not I'm not favoring media. I just

00:56:16

think it's I always see it as an

00:56:17

opportunity. I always see as an like you

00:56:19

can still do well. It it's a good

00:56:22

business. It makes a lot of profits. You

00:56:24

could do well here and it could give you

00:56:25

an o it gives an opportunity for MS now

00:56:27

to have a lane all to itself. And I

00:56:29

think that's always a good thing. Always

00:56:31

a good thing. And

00:56:32

>> there's Ms. Now stars. Rachel, she's

00:56:34

only one day a week.

00:56:35

>> Rachel, there's a whole bunch over

00:56:36

there. But let me say Rebecca Cutler is

00:56:38

Stephanie. There's a whole bunch of

00:56:39

people over there that are

00:56:40

>> very talented.

00:56:41

>> Uh and they're they're hiring a lot of

00:56:42

great reporters and Rebecca Cutler who

00:56:45

you know know about is amazing. like

00:56:47

she's she's she was heard me at CNN plus

00:56:49

she did at the pl um and and and you

00:56:52

know I think there's lots of opportunity

00:56:54

I think that the the the Ellison's will

00:56:56

bollocks it and coming to you soon to

00:56:58

Cara Swisser docky series Cara Swisser

00:57:00

wants to live forever on CNN. No

00:57:02

kidding. That's coming.

00:57:04

>> I just hope it closes before then so I

00:57:06

can see a photo with you and Larry

00:57:07

Ellison.

00:57:08

>> No, it's not. Listen, it's it's going to

00:57:10

be soon. I will be out I'll be I'll have

00:57:13

removed my my things from the closet

00:57:15

long before then. So curious who they're

00:57:16

going to ask who they're going to.

00:57:17

>> Let me just tell you everybody, Scott

00:57:19

Galloway is in the second episode and

00:57:21

he's looking fine and and it's he looks

00:57:24

it's he's it's an adorable Cara and

00:57:27

Scott moment. Anyway, let's go.

00:57:29

>> That'll save him.

00:57:31

>> That's their answer.

00:57:32

>> A good It's actually a really good show.

00:57:34

I have to say I'm very

00:57:35

>> You have to say your show's really good.

00:57:36

You're going to love this. Uh, I did a

00:57:38

podcast today and they asked me what was

00:57:40

my favorite moment with Cara Swisser and

00:57:44

I said when you and your wife came down

00:57:46

for the weekend and I let you speak pick

00:57:49

the streaming media thing we were going

00:57:50

to watch. Big mistake. You

00:57:52

picked some like art heist from PBS or

00:57:54

like the history of great museum thefts

00:57:57

or something. I

00:57:58

>> Oh, that was a good show. And we're

00:58:00

sitting there and we're all eating and o

00:58:03

over comes white LeBron, your

00:58:05

14-year-old monster.

00:58:07

>> And he sits down and I'm not

00:58:08

exaggerating. We all pop 8 in into the

00:58:11

air.

00:58:13

>> He's bigger than ever.

00:58:14

>> And also the next day you were you were

00:58:15

scolding him like a mother does and you

00:58:18

were literally your neck was craning so

00:58:20

hard up at him.

00:58:21

>> It was like watching mama.

00:58:23

>> It was like watching Billy Barter Barty

00:58:26

lecture Shaquille O'Neal. Yeah. Like I

00:58:28

said to my I said to

00:58:29

>> I I said to my son, I'm like, "Look at

00:58:31

this. Look at this. Look what's going on

00:58:33

over there."

00:58:34

>> Yeah.

00:58:34

>> Anyway, that's right. I should parent

00:58:37

everybody. Anyway, um uh let's go on a

00:58:40

quick break. When we come back, wins and

00:58:42

fails.

00:58:43

>> Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and

00:58:45

fails. What? I can go first if you want.

00:58:47

>> First,

00:58:48

>> I have to say I we talked I talked too

00:58:51

much about Hito Robin, but I thought

00:58:52

Connor's story did a great job uh on SNL

00:58:56

this week. I usually

00:58:57

>> Oh my god, that's my win.

00:58:58

>> What? What? Okay, you take it. You take

00:59:01

it. Let's discuss it. Go ahead. Go

00:59:03

ahead. Take it.

00:59:04

>> I feel that SNL thread uh My win was

00:59:08

SNL. I thought they thread the needle

00:59:10

perfectly

00:59:11

>> this week. Yeah. Not every week. Yeah.

00:59:13

>> They they honored the women's team,

00:59:16

>> but at the same time, I think it's

00:59:17

all the the men have

00:59:19

taken.

00:59:20

>> Yeah.

00:59:20

>> I think for them to Wouldn't it have

00:59:22

been great if you listen to the video?

00:59:23

This was President Trump taking everyone

00:59:26

back to the 50s and mocking women.

00:59:28

>> That is not what we need. We need a more

00:59:30

evolved sense of masculinity that

00:59:31

celebrates great athletic performance.

00:59:33

By the way, eight of 12 medals from the

00:59:35

women.

00:59:35

>> The goal,

00:59:38

the overtime goal, the in my opinion,

00:59:39

one of the great moments in sports

00:59:41

history of the women's hockey team. They

00:59:43

threaded the needle perfectly because I

00:59:44

do think the men got more than they

00:59:46

deserved. I

00:59:47

>> they got they got invaded by Cash Patel.

00:59:50

Let's blame Cash.

00:59:50

>> That's exactly right. But what are they

00:59:53

going to do? What are they going to do?

00:59:54

>> I agree.

00:59:55

>> Anyways, and if you listen to the tape

00:59:57

when when Trump made those wildly sexist

01:00:00

remarks, there were one or two men's

01:00:02

hockey players saying two for two. They

01:00:05

were trying to acknowledge that both the

01:00:07

men's and the women's team

01:00:09

>> and SNL did it perfectly. It they didn't

01:00:12

virtue signal and say, "Yeah, women and

01:00:14

oh that both jokes." They had the women

01:00:17

make the jokes and the men were

01:00:18

>> and the men were there to take it

01:00:20

>> and they were fine with it. They thread

01:00:21

the needle

01:00:23

>> perfectly.

01:00:23

>> And it was critical that Connor's story

01:00:25

was standing in between them. I have to

01:00:27

say he's such a likable person and such

01:00:29

a talented physical comedian. Like his

01:00:32

stripper who got in a car accident was

01:00:34

so funny. Like I I don't believe

01:00:37

they pulled that one off. Um I have I

01:00:39

have to say he is such a delightful

01:00:41

talented.

01:00:42

>> He's a delightful figure. Both of them

01:00:44

are. And

01:00:45

>> I'm telling you, season two like

01:00:47

scorching hot rivalry with the women's

01:00:49

hockey team. Daddy's here for it.

01:00:51

>> Yes. Yes. And I thought the women

01:00:53

handled it well.

01:00:54

>> So well done.

01:00:55

>> Everyone was big. Everybody was big.

01:00:56

>> The writers at SNL are geniuses.

01:00:58

>> And you know who who sucks? Cash

01:01:01

Patel. Why are you invading these guys

01:01:03

win? Like as if you and reflected

01:01:06

glory. You you tubby loser. Like

01:01:09

forget it. Like how dare you. Now now

01:01:11

I'm focused only on Cash Patel. I I I I

01:01:15

really am. I think he's just the worst.

01:01:16

So um uh my fail is is um I think this

01:01:21

this situation with Anthropica. I think

01:01:23

it has to be we are not

01:01:24

>> the same person today. We're literally

01:01:26

the same person.

01:01:27

>> Okay. Right. I think there they are

01:01:30

bullies. I think they use Twitter as a a

01:01:32

way to attack people in a way that's

01:01:34

really unprofessional. You can have

01:01:37

differences and everyone's already

01:01:38

always grabbing for power and grabbing

01:01:41

for money. I get it. It's gone on since

01:01:42

the beginning of time. But the way

01:01:44

you're doing this is all about your

01:01:46

insecured childhood traumas that are

01:01:49

being writ large on the rest of us. This

01:01:51

is not professional. You do not have to

01:01:53

like do this. And they do it as like

01:01:55

keyboard warriors on Twitter. Um I got a

01:01:58

text from I'm not going to say who it

01:01:59

was who said you got the world is

01:02:02

happening on Twitter. You got to be back

01:02:03

here. And I was like I'm not going back

01:02:05

to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making

01:02:08

children sexual. I was like the world is

01:02:11

not happening on Twitter. The world is

01:02:13

happening in the world, you guys. Like,

01:02:16

you need to get out of your own

01:02:19

way. You are you are you you

01:02:22

have to understand that what you're

01:02:23

doing is damaging to most people and

01:02:26

that we don't want to hear about all

01:02:28

your beefs and all your traumas and

01:02:30

everything else. If Anthropic doesn't

01:02:33

want to do business with you, just let's

01:02:35

move along. Let's just move along. And

01:02:37

I'm sorry you're not as successful as

01:02:40

Daario Amodi or smart Emil Michael, but

01:02:42

you're going to have to live with it as

01:02:44

as being an anxious toad to the

01:02:46

powerful. Stop it. Like that to me is is

01:02:49

the loss. You go ahead.

01:02:51

>> Mine's exactly the same, but I I'll look

01:02:53

at it through a shareholder lens. I'm

01:02:55

looking at a company called Marcado

01:02:56

Libé, which is the Amazon of Argentina.

01:02:58

And one of the reasons I'm looking at it

01:03:00

>> is that effectively when the bricks were

01:03:03

in vogue, you know, the price earnings

01:03:06

multiple of certain Latin American

01:03:07

markets was about 20 and it went down to

01:03:10

eight because all the flows went into US

01:03:11

tech stocks which meant you could you

01:03:15

could increase your earnings two and a

01:03:17

half fold over 10 years and your stock

01:03:19

was flat. You can't outrun multiple

01:03:23

contraction in a market as a stock and

01:03:25

it all under the same opaces and market

01:03:27

dynamics trump individual performance.

01:03:29

At the same time, it's almost impossible

01:03:31

to be wrong when you have multiple

01:03:32

expansion. It has been American

01:03:35

investors. You know, we all think we're

01:03:36

geniuses right now in our 401ks. We have

01:03:39

had multiple expansion since 2008 and

01:03:42

we're about to experience multiple

01:03:43

contraction and we're already

01:03:44

experiencing it. We were 21 out of 23

01:03:46

markets last year on a dollar adjusted

01:03:48

basis. Everyone else outperformed us and

01:03:50

one of the reasons people don't realize

01:03:52

we have just lost trillions of dollars

01:03:54

when the Pentagon starts picking winners

01:03:56

and losers. If which makes weapons

01:04:00

decides that yeah we are going to figure

01:04:02

out we're going to use Silicon Valley

01:04:04

ethos to help the defense department

01:04:06

kill people and people freak out. Well,

01:04:08

guess what? They're allowed to do that.

01:04:10

It's not illegal. They're allowed to do

01:04:12

that when anthropic or excuse me when

01:04:14

when Palunteer says we're going to work

01:04:16

with the government of Israel to track

01:04:17

down terrorists and kill them in their

01:04:18

homes that you may find that

01:04:20

distasteful. It's legal. They're allowed

01:04:23

to do it. And anthropic when they decide

01:04:25

we don't want to provide our services or

01:04:28

data for what we feel is the surveilling

01:04:30

the illegal surveillance of US citizens,

01:04:32

they too are allowed to do that. And

01:04:36

when governments start playing political

01:04:37

favorites in markets, the the rule of

01:04:41

law is no longer applied and your

01:04:44

multiple on companies, your price

01:04:46

earnings multiple begins to contract.

01:04:49

Freedoms and systemic laws and a

01:04:51

separation between government and

01:04:52

business results in higher price

01:04:55

earnings multiples and greater increases

01:04:57

in 401ks and your ability to retire

01:04:59

earlier. And this Pentagon

01:05:03

stationary war on anthropic is going to

01:05:07

cost US investors trillions of dollars

01:05:10

as people decide to go where they know

01:05:13

who they're waking up next to that they

01:05:14

can invest in a company and they do the

01:05:17

assessment based on the laws at hand. Is

01:05:19

this company succeeding or failing based

01:05:21

on the current laws and they don't have

01:05:22

to try and guess what the oneoff

01:05:26

individual laws will be in a few months.

01:05:28

So I have the same

01:05:30

>> same win and same fail.

01:05:31

>> Uh but I look at it as an investor. I'm

01:05:34

now looking at markets.

01:05:36

>> People get angry at the autotocracies in

01:05:39

in China or in the Gulf. They have a

01:05:42

huge respect for the domain or the

01:05:45

sovereignty of investors and having

01:05:48

uniform laws that apply to everyone

01:05:50

equally. And we are now becoming that

01:05:52

nation where we decide which companies

01:05:54

win and lose. And all that means is our

01:05:56

PE. We're about to experience multiple

01:05:58

contraction which you cannot outrun.

01:06:00

>> Not for long. Let me just say you feel

01:06:02

it. Can't you feel it? And speaking of

01:06:04

feeling it, Scott, this has been a great

01:06:06

discussion. I have to say I was a little

01:06:07

worried this morning. Um I was also

01:06:09

tired, but this has been a really great

01:06:10

discussion about these things and

01:06:12

disagreeing in a really uh civil way.

01:06:14

But let me say it's going to continue

01:06:16

because we're going Where are we going?

01:06:18

Scott Galloway on Sunday.

01:06:20

>> Resist and unsubscribe. Big

01:06:22

announcement, fulltime resources, and by

01:06:25

the way, Sam, it's not going to be a

01:06:26

good night for you.

01:06:27

>> No,

01:06:28

>> it's And guess what, Sam? We're talking

01:06:30

about

01:06:31

>> 48 hours.

01:06:33

>> You put Cara Swisser on an invite. In 48

01:06:35

hours, we sold out the pantageous at

01:06:37

thousands.

01:06:38

>> We sold it out. And we want to thank

01:06:39

Tain Danger for doing an amazing job for

01:06:41

us in Minneapolis.

01:06:42

>> He's my favorite porn star.

01:06:43

>> He's your favorite porn star. And he's

01:06:44

an amazing Danger and our staff who's

01:06:47

working really hard. We sold out right

01:06:48

away. We are coming to Minneapolis. We

01:06:51

have special guests. We are very

01:06:53

excited. Um and we will talk about the

01:06:55

next move. Scott will Scott who's the

01:06:57

president of Resist and Unsubscribe. Um

01:07:00

I'm just a helper. Um but we want to

01:07:02

hear from you. Send us your questions

01:07:03

about business tech or whatever is on

01:07:05

your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot

01:07:07

to submit a question for the show or

01:07:08

call 8551 pivot. Okay, that's the show.

01:07:12

Thanks for listening to Pivot and be

01:07:13

sure to like and subscribe to our

01:07:15

YouTube channel. We'll be back on

01:07:16

Friday.

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