The 2025 NFL Season Through Data: DVOA, Analytics, Awards, and Predictions
Episode Description
ABOUT THE EPISODE Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy and founder of Football Outsiders, joins Eric Bradlow to explore how DVOA and play-by-play analytics challenge conventional narratives about the 2025 NFL season, conference strength, playoff probabilities, and the growing influence of data in awards voting. Plus, Eric walks through real-world examples of using generative AI to forecast NBA win totals, college football playoff probabilities, and NFL Super Bowl odds, highlighting how modern models apply Bayesian reasoning, betting markets, and simulation-based analytics.
ABOUT THE PODCAST Sports is a game of numbers. Wharton experts Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner team up to tackle the world of sports, from current events to longstanding issues such as: What sports streaks are the most impressive? How do you rank the best players? Can athletes be compared across sports? Moneyball Highlights explains how decision-makers in the game can avoid the common mistakes and embrace the data. Episodes are recorded at the Wharton School.
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Brief Summary
Aaron Shatz discusses NFL analytics, playoff predictions, and the evolving role of statistics in awards voting.
Key points
- Welcome to Wharton Moneyball. The podcast kicks off with Eric Bradlo introducing the show and its focus on analytics in sports.
- Topsy-Turvy NFL Season. Aaron Shatz analyzes the unpredictability of the current NFL season, highlighting unusual team performances.
- Super Bowl Probabilities. A discussion on the probabilities of Seattle and the Rams winning the Super Bowl, revealing a significant discrepancy with market predictions.
- Seattle and Rams' Historic Ranking. Aaron reveals that Seattle and the Rams are among the top 10 teams since 1978 based on analytics.
- Frustration with Team Performance. The team has lost to three divisional rivals, raising concerns about their performance.
- Weak Division Winner Prediction. Discussion on the likelihood of a team winning the division with a losing record.
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Episode highlights
- Topsy-Turvy NFL SeasonAaron Shatz analyzes the unpredictability of the current NFL season, highlighting unusual team performances.“This is a topsy-turvy year.”2:23Jan 5, 2026
- Super Bowl ProbabilitiesA discussion on the probabilities of Seattle and the Rams winning the Super Bowl, revealing a significant discrepancy with market predictions.“Wow, so you're almost twice as high.”7:18Jan 5, 2026
- Seattle and Rams' Historic RankingAaron reveals that Seattle and the Rams are among the top 10 teams since 1978 based on analytics.“Seattle and the Rams are two of the 10 best teams since 1978.”8:36Jan 5, 2026
- Frustration with Team PerformanceThe team has lost to three divisional rivals, raising concerns about their performance.“They all stink.”19:12Jan 5, 2026
- Weak Division Winner PredictionDiscussion on the likelihood of a team winning the division with a losing record.“It's a historically weak division winner.”19:58Jan 5, 2026
- Analytics in Awards VotingThe growing influence of analytics in voting for awards is discussed, highlighting changes in the panel.“Even the people who are not necessarily analytics people are going to use more analytics.”28:51Jan 5, 2026
- Controversial MVP VoteOne analyst explains why he voted against a popular MVP candidate, citing statistical evidence.“I can't vote for him for MVP when he's not number one in any stat.”30:15Jan 5, 2026
- Future of MVP VotingSpeculation on how narrative and statistics will influence MVP voting in the future.“You may not have a situation where you have a guy who's 10th or 11th in stats, but he gets a narrative going.”31:38Jan 5, 2026
