Rufus Peabody: Prediction Markets and the Future of Sports Betting Analytics

Knowledge at Wharton

  • Jan 30, 2026
  • 57:11
  • Full Episode

ABOUT THE EPISODE Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor, quantitative analyst and host of the @bettheprocess podcast, discusses the rise of prediction markets, comparing them to traditional sportsbooks while exploring liquidity, market-making, automation, and the evolving edge for sophisticated bettors. Plus, the Moneyball team has a wide-ranging sports analytics discussion covering Super Bowl matchup expectations, controversial coaching decisions, quarterback perception biases, and key storylines shaping the Australian Open.

ABOUT THE PODCAST Sports is a game of numbers. Wharton experts Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner team up to tackle the world of sports, from current events to longstanding issues such as: What sports streaks are the most impressive? How do you rank the best players? Can athletes be compared across sports? Moneyball Highlights explains how decision-makers in the game can avoid the common mistakes and embrace the data. Episodes are recorded at the Wharton School.

#SportsBetting #SportsAnalytics #PredictionMarkets #SportsData #Sportsbook ----- The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania is committed to sharing its intellectual capital through Knowledge at Wharton, the school’s online business analysis journal.

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Brief Summary

Rufus Peabody discusses prediction markets, Super Bowl betting, and golf analytics on Wharton Moneyball.

Key points

  • Super Bowl Betting Insights. Rufus Peabody shares insights on sports betting, particularly around Super Bowl prop bets.
  • The Rise of Prediction Markets. Discussion on the advantages of prediction markets over traditional sports betting.
  • The Impact of AI on Betting. Exploring how AI and reinforcement learning are changing the betting landscape.
  • Market Dynamics and Predictability. Understanding how market dynamics affect betting strategies and opportunities.
  • The Fragility of Betting Edges. Discussing how quickly betting opportunities can disappear due to market efficiency.
  • Bet the Process Podcast. Rufus Peabody co-hosts a serious sports betting podcast that has gained popularity over the years.

Episode highlights

Tension

45/ 100Some tension

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