Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
Episode Description
ABOUT THE EPISODE Bill Connelly, ESPN college football analyst and creator of SP+, Bill Connelly, joins Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi to break down first-round playoff games, assess championship probabilities, and explain how analytics shape expectations in the expanded College Football Playoff. The Moneyball team also discusses the end of AFC quarterback dominance, and what today’s parity means for teams, windows, and dynasties across football.
ABOUT THE PODCAST Sports is a game of numbers. Wharton experts Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner team up to tackle the world of sports, from current events to longstanding issues such as: What sports streaks are the most impressive? How do you rank the best players? Can athletes be compared across sports? Moneyball Highlights explains how decision-makers in the game can avoid the common mistakes and embrace the data. Episodes are recorded at the Wharton School.
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Brief Summary
Bill Connley discusses college football playoffs, team matchups, and analytics on Wharton Moneyball.
Key points
- Introduction to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics on the Wharton podcast.
- Bill Connley Joins the Show. Bill Connley joins to discuss college football playoffs and preview upcoming games.
- JMU vs. Oregon Preview. Bill discusses the potential for JMU to compete against Oregon in the playoffs.
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma Rematch. Analyzing the rematch between Alabama and Oklahoma and the stakes involved.
- Alabama's Struggles. Alabama is currently lost and unsure about their offensive strategy.
- Miami vs. A&M Preview. The first game of Saturday is a must-watch playoff matchup at Kyle Field.
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Episode highlights
- Bill Connley Joins the ShowBill Connley joins to discuss college football playoffs and preview upcoming games.“Bill, welcome in. Good to see you.”0:56Dec 18, 2025
- JMU vs. Oregon PreviewBill discusses the potential for JMU to compete against Oregon in the playoffs.“I think it can absolutely be a competitive game.”8:21Dec 18, 2025
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma RematchAnalyzing the rematch between Alabama and Oklahoma and the stakes involved.“Neither one of these teams is gonna make a long run in the playoffs.”13:35Dec 18, 2025
- Alabama's StrugglesAlabama is currently lost and unsure about their offensive strategy.“They don’t know how they’re going to move the ball.”16:22Dec 18, 2025
- Miami vs. A&M PreviewThe first game of Saturday is a must-watch playoff matchup at Kyle Field.“This is going to be a playoff game there. Are you kidding me?”17:40Dec 18, 2025
- Unpredictable TeamsBoth Miami and A&M are inconsistent, making their matchup unpredictable.“If you tell me either team won by 28 points, I’ll believe you immediately.”18:04Dec 18, 2025
- 15 Years Without Brady or MahomesThe AFC Championship game hasn't featured either star quarterback in 15 years.“Is this the 15 year?”32:21Dec 18, 2025
- Josh Allen's Pressure to PerformWith Mahomes absent, the pressure mounts on Josh Allen to lead the Bills to success.“It’s a crime against humanity if he doesn’t get into the Super Bowl.”41:11Dec 18, 2025





