00:00:00
Unless something about their current
00:00:02
trajectory changes, anthropic will be
00:00:05
the most powerful monopoly ever created
00:00:07
in human history.
00:00:09
>> Oh,
00:00:09
>> we know that tech markets have a history
00:00:13
of consolidating down and turning into
00:00:15
either monopolies or duopolies. And if
00:00:18
you just look at the revenue right now,
00:00:20
there's only two companies making
00:00:22
substantial revenue on AI. It's
00:00:25
Enthropic and Open AI. Anthropic is
00:00:27
growing at an exponential 10x a year.
00:00:30
And if they just do that for 18 more
00:00:33
months, they'll be by far the most
00:00:35
valuable company in human history. And
00:00:37
they'll have unprecedented control over
00:00:39
the most important technology of our
00:00:40
time. So I don't know what you call
00:00:42
that, but it is something to think
00:00:44
about. And I guess I do have a thought
00:00:46
experiment for you guys, which is I just
00:00:48
want you to think for a second about the
00:00:51
case of John D. Rockefeller, who I think
00:00:54
is known as probably the most
00:00:56
successful, most ruthless monopolist in
00:00:59
American history, but he wasn't very
00:01:01
good at PR. He was terrible at PR.
00:01:03
Everyone sort of recognize how ruthless
00:01:05
he is. We've seen movies like There Will
00:01:06
Be Blood, which is basically about him.
00:01:08
In any event, imagine if John D.
00:01:10
Rockefeller was way better at public
00:01:12
relations, and instead of calling his
00:01:15
company Standard Oil, he called it safe
00:01:17
oil because, as we know, kerosene is
00:01:20
dangerous. Their first big product was
00:01:22
kerosene. And kerosene can light your
00:01:24
house or it can burn it down. And in the
00:01:26
wrong hands, it can torch a city or you
00:01:28
can use it to make a bomb. So John D,
00:01:31
let's say, should have called for the
00:01:33
creation of a new government agency to
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regulate the safety of his product. And
00:01:36
they could have done rigorous testing,
00:01:38
licensing, common sense regulation.
00:01:41
There would have been a very intense
00:01:42
debate over safety standards. You know,
00:01:44
what should the proper wick thickness
00:01:46
be? And should we allow all those
00:01:49
dangerous independent refiners, right?
00:01:52
And I think people would have gotten so
00:01:53
wrapped up in this debate over what
00:01:56
constituted safe oil or safe kerosene
00:01:58
that they would have missed what was
00:02:00
really going on, which is that
00:02:01
Rockefeller was building the richest,
00:02:03
most powerful monopoly of all time. In
00:02:04
fact, people might even have called
00:02:06
Rockefeller an effective altruist
00:02:08
because, of course, he was so concerned
00:02:11
about the safety of his product. I love
00:02:14
him.