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David Friedberg: How to Save Social Security Using Compound Interest

March 15, 2025 / 02:25

This episode discusses the US Social Security program, its historical context, and investment strategies. Key topics include the performance of the Social Security trust fund, comparisons to the S&P 500, and the impact of investment choices on wealth distribution.

The host explains that the Social Security program was established in the 1930s to provide retirement benefits for those without private accounts. The trust fund, known as OASDI, primarily invests in US treasuries, which have yielded lower returns compared to the S&P 500.

In 1971, when the US went off the gold standard, the host argues that if the Social Security trust fund had been invested in the S&P 500, it would now hold $15 trillion, significantly benefiting all Americans.

The discussion highlights the disparity between those with access to private retirement accounts and those reliant on public accounts, leading to inequities in wealth accumulation. The host proposes a solution to prevent bankruptcy of the trust fund by investing in the S&P 500.

Ultimately, the episode critiques the management of the Social Security trust fund and advocates for a shift in investment strategy to promote broader wealth among Americans.

TL;DR

The episode critiques Social Security's investment strategy and suggests investing in the S&P 500 to prevent bankruptcy and promote wealth for all Americans.

Video

00:00:00
the US Social Security program is meant
00:00:02
to be kind of the retirement program for
00:00:04
folks that don't have access to private
00:00:06
retirement accounts this program was set
00:00:08
up in the 1930s after the Great
00:00:11
Depression there's a trust fund the
00:00:13
OASDI which is the fund that they invest
00:00:15
the capital so every year we all put
00:00:17
money in with our social security taxes
00:00:18
out of our paychecks goes in there it
00:00:20
gets invested in one thing us treasuries
00:00:22
which have averaged about
00:00:23
4.8% return since the beginning of the
00:00:26
program per year meanwhile the S&P has
00:00:28
been averaging 11% so here's the map if
00:00:30
in 1971 which was the year that we went
00:00:33
off the gold standard in the United
00:00:34
States if we invested the Social
00:00:36
Security trust fund in the S&P the
00:00:38
balance of the Social Security trust
00:00:40
fund today would be $15 trillion that
00:00:42
would be roughly onethird of the value
00:00:44
of the total s&p500 which would be
00:00:47
jointly owned by all Americans now
00:00:49
here's what's up the middle class people
00:00:51
who had access to private retirement
00:00:53
accounts benefited by buying the S&P 500
00:00:55
and the wealthy were able to access it
00:00:57
so all of the equity value that accured
00:00:59
from American Enterprise and the
00:01:01
prosperity of the American system
00:01:03
accured to the people that had access to
00:01:04
the private accounts meanwhile the
00:01:06
people that only had access to the
00:01:07
Public Accounts got stuck owning
00:01:09
treasuries today the Social Security
00:01:11
trust fund has $2.7 trillion balance and
00:01:13
based on the outflows and inflows it's
00:01:15
going to go bankrupt in 2032 so I did
00:01:17
the math if you assume that the S&P 500
00:01:20
continues to grow at 10 a half% a year
00:01:22
on average we could put about $500
00:01:24
billion in the trust fund today and it
00:01:25
will not go bankrupt again and it will
00:01:27
continue to grow every year and then all
00:01:29
americ Americans have participation in
00:01:31
American Enterprise and importantly this
00:01:33
becomes the world's largest Sovereign
00:01:34
wealth fund ever you don't need a
00:01:36
separate Sovereign wealth fund we
00:01:37
already have one we've totally
00:01:39
mismanaged it and I went back to trying
00:01:40
and understand why this is the case why
00:01:42
have we only ever bought treasuries
00:01:44
early on the US needed someone to loan
00:01:46
money so they basically forc the
00:01:47
citizens to loan the government money in
00:01:49
the form of treasuries but today the
00:01:51
Social Security trust fund owns less
00:01:54
than 10% about 8% of the total treasury
00:01:56
bonds outstanding so why are we forcing
00:01:58
all the American citizens to partip for
00:02:00
no reason through the Social Security
00:02:01
System we've created the Deep inequity
00:02:03
we see in this country If instead we had
00:02:05
allowed the social security system to
00:02:07
invest in the S&P 500 to buy American
00:02:09
Enterprises to fund American businesses
00:02:12
then every American would be wealthy and
00:02:14
that middle class that uniquely
00:02:16
participated by basically arbitraging
00:02:18
the market where they forced the
00:02:19
treasury bond yields on the poor and
00:02:21
they got to take access to the equity
00:02:23
yields would have not happened

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 65
    Best concept / idea
  • 60
    Most shocking

Episode Highlights

  • Investing in the S&P 500
    If the Social Security trust fund had invested in the S&P 500, it could be worth $15 trillion today.
    @ 00m 40s
    March 15, 2025
  • The Social Security Trust Fund
    The Social Security trust fund has a balance of $2.7 trillion and is projected to go bankrupt in 2032.
    @ 01m 11s
    March 15, 2025
  • A Path to Wealth for All
    Investing Social Security in American enterprises could have made every American wealthy.
    “Every American would be wealthy.”
    @ 02m 14s
    March 15, 2025

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Historical Context00:08
  • Investment Insights00:23
  • Future Projections01:11
  • Inequity Discussion02:03

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