"Elon has massive leverage in AI right now" - Chamath
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Episode Description
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Brief Summary
AI companies face compute capacity challenges, benefiting hyperscalers like Amazon and Google.
Key points
- Compute Capacity Crisis. There's a huge mismatch in compute capacity with many projects stalled.
- Opportunities for SpaceX. Elon Musk could capitalize on excess capacity in the market.
Transcript
To the extent that open AI missed, I think what that is is an insight to not enough compute capacity today. And that problem is only getting worse. Okay, if you look at the actual amount of gigawatts that are under construction, we have a huge mismatch now. People have announced all these projects, but less than half of it is actually being built. Less than half. Most of it is stuck in red tape. There's no credible strategy to turn any of this stuff on. Who will this hurt? It will hurt Anthropic and OpenAI the most. Who will this benefit? It will benefit the hyperscalers, specifically Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google. And now what you're going to see is a
negotiation and a trade back and forth. How much equity do I have to give up? How much control do I have to give up to get access to the compute versus how badly will I miss my growth forecasts if I don't? That's a huge lane for Grock to just run through and SpaceX to run through because they have a ton of excess capacity. And so I think the cursor deal was the appetizer. If I were Elon now, I'd be running all over this market because if the models catch up in quality, I think he could also do something really crazy with anthropic. He and Dario should do a deal
