E91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
- Aug 12, 2022
- 1:09:01
- Full Episode
0:00 Bestie intros 3:02 Where Masa and SoftBank went wrong, why VC isn't scaleable, Vision Fund impact 27:59 Metrics that signify a bubble or the top of a market 36:46 US macroeconomic picture 50:45 FBI raids Mar-a-Lago, Trump back in news
Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show: https://group.softbank/system/files/pdf/ir/presentations/2022/earnings-presentation_q1fy2022_01_en.pdf https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-reports-23-billion-quarterly-loss-as-tech-downturn-hits-11659940047 https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-81222 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-affordability-in-june-was-the-worst-since-1989-11660312801 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FIXHAI https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1556987104219090945 https://twitter.com/andrewcuomo/status/1556990308424028163 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1546669610509799424 https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1557934401505308672
Brief Summary
The episode discusses SoftBank's Vision Fund losses, investment strategies, and current economic conditions with guests David Sacks, David Friedberg, and Chamath Palihapitiya.
Key points
- Navigating Sardinia. The crew navigated the entire island of Sardinia for eight days. Amazing!
- Masayoshi Son's Vision Fund Losses. Softbank faces a dramatic cost-cutting exercise after a staggering $21 billion loss.
- The Kingmaker Strategy. Softbank's belief in being a 'kingmaker' in investments may have backfired.
- Softbank's Critical Error. Softbank's decision to set a 10-year fund life limited their investment flexibility.
- Market Timing Insights. Understanding macroeconomic factors is crucial for investors, especially in changing interest rate environments.
- Sticking to Your Strengths. Investors should focus on their core competencies rather than diversifying into unfamiliar areas.
Episode highlights
- Navigating SardiniaThe crew navigated the entire island of Sardinia for eight days. Amazing!“It took a village.”0:36Aug 12, 2022
- Masayoshi Son's Vision Fund LossesSoftbank faces a dramatic cost-cutting exercise after a staggering $21 billion loss.“Dramatic cost-cutting exercise.”3:47Aug 12, 2022
- The Kingmaker StrategySoftbank's belief in being a 'kingmaker' in investments may have backfired.“The kingmaker aspect was a problem.”17:40Aug 12, 2022
- Softbank's Critical ErrorSoftbank's decision to set a 10-year fund life limited their investment flexibility.“The math says oh my gosh okay well I need to put 20 billion out per year.”20:08Aug 12, 2022
- Market Timing InsightsUnderstanding macroeconomic factors is crucial for investors, especially in changing interest rate environments.“It's hard enough to do that job well.”24:24Aug 12, 2022
- Sticking to Your StrengthsInvestors should focus on their core competencies rather than diversifying into unfamiliar areas.“Stick to your knitting if you're a product builder.”31:37Aug 12, 2022
- Inflation Rates and Political PerspectivesInflation is viewed differently depending on political affiliation, with Democrats and Republicans reporting contrasting figures.“Depending on what political party you're in, it's either 8.5 or zero.”36:54Aug 12, 2022
- Consumer Credit SurgeHousehold debt has surged to over 16 trillion, raising concerns about consumer spending and inflation.“Consumers seem to be taking out credit to deal with inflation or to enjoy their lives.”40:52Aug 12, 2022
