E84: Markets update, crypto collapse, Russia/Ukraine endgame, state of the podcast
- Jun 23, 2022
- 1:41:58
- Full Episode
0:00 Besties discuss the one-month hiatus 7:03 Markets update: Fed decisions, goals, macro factors, root causes 32:19 Earnings estimate skepticism, labor force, job openings 47:17 How startups should think about the next 18-36 months 56:20 Crypto collapse, next shoe(s) to drop 1:08:41 Russia/Ukraine endgame, escalation, scrutinizing US alliances, sanctions failing 1:33:12 Will 2024 be Biden vs. Trump? Could it be DeSantis vs. Newsom?
Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/tc-energy-terminates-keystone-xl-pipeline-project.html https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-talks-with-allies-russian-oil-price-cap-says-yellen-2022-06-20/ https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-bls-price-checkers-who-determine-cpi-11652132333 https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dual-mandate/dual-mandate https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/top_stories/right_direction_wrong_track_jun20 https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reducing-inflation-come-great-cost-stagflation-ray-dalio https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers https://www.socialcapital.com/ideas/2021-annual-letter https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/10/tiger-global-hit-by-17b-hedge-fund-losses-has-nearly-depleted-its-latest-vc-fund https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin https://www.coinbase.com/price/ethereum https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/three-arrows-capital-confirms-heavy-losses-from-lunas-collapse-exploring-potential-options-report https://www.ft.com/content/19c27ae1-ae72-4668-b3a9-162adc27dffc https://decrypt.co/103489/solend-whale-108m-loan-nearly-crashed-solana https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-employee-nft-marketplace-charged-first-ever-digital-asset-insider-trading-scheme https://www.ft.com/content/4e211784-83eb-49a2-ba39-8976345a88d5 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/10/ukraine-ammunition-donbas-russia/ https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-will-win/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/london-listed-russian-stocks-erase-570-billion-in-two-weeks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/ruble-soars-to-seven-year-high-in-challenge-to-bank-of-russia https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/russias-ruble-is-at-strongest-level-in-7-years-despite-sanctions.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-push-for-exceptions-in-europes-sanctions-on-russian-oil-gains-traction-11655913796 https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-germany-nuclear-shutdown-story-82051054 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/catl-unveils-ev-battery-with-one-charge-range-of-1-000-kms https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06/why-ron-desantis-can-beat-trump-in-2024.html
Brief Summary
Co-host tensions lead to discussions on markets, inflation, and U.S. foreign policy, highlighting economic challenges and geopolitical risks.
Key points
- Tension in the Room. The hosts navigate underlying tensions while discussing their podcast dynamics.
- Financial Turmoil Discussion. The hosts dive into the current state of the economy and asset bubbles.
- Inflation Forecast. Expect high inflation rates in the coming months due to various economic factors.
- The Fed's Missed Opportunity. The Fed waited too long to react to inflation, leading to dire consequences.
- Labor Force Participation Crisis. Millions left the labor force during COVID, creating a need for two million to return.
- The Importance of Runway for Startups. Startups are advised to have three to four years of runway to survive the upcoming recession.
Episode highlights
- Tension in the RoomThe hosts navigate underlying tensions while discussing their podcast dynamics.“Can you feel the tension?”5:44Jun 23, 2022
- Financial Turmoil DiscussionThe hosts dive into the current state of the economy and asset bubbles.“The markets are in complete turmoil!”7:04Jun 23, 2022
- Inflation ForecastExpect high inflation rates in the coming months due to various economic factors.“The next three to four months of CPI will probably be very bad.”22:46Jun 23, 2022
- The Fed's Missed OpportunityThe Fed waited too long to react to inflation, leading to dire consequences.“The Fed was asleep at the wheel for nine months.”28:08Jun 23, 2022
- Labor Force Participation CrisisMillions left the labor force during COVID, creating a need for two million to return.“We need about two million people to re-enter the labor force.”37:19Jun 23, 2022
- The Importance of Runway for StartupsStartups are advised to have three to four years of runway to survive the upcoming recession.“If you just have two years of runway, you're going to need to raise in a year.”47:56Jun 23, 2022
- Discipline in InvestmentInvestors are becoming more disciplined, focusing on real metrics and growth.“We all of a sudden have discipline that I have not seen in this investor class.”55:29Jun 23, 2022
- Regulatory Oversight LoomsIncreased scrutiny and potential lawsuits could reshape the crypto landscape.“There will be a lot of action on this over the next couple of years.”1:03:32Jun 23, 2022
