E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
- Mar 4, 2022
- 1:35:54
- Full Episode
0:00 David Sacks: Man for the people 0:50 Escalating tensions over Russia/Ukraine; nuclear scare; evolving forms of warfare 16:27 Assessing impact of economic sanctions: first, second and third-order effects; exit ramps for Putin and Russia 34:23 Reflecting on if taking NATO expansion off the table would have prevented war; Putin's risk of ruin; lessons learned so far 46:12 New version of economic warfare; possibility of a regime change; comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis; realist vs. idealist; lessons for Taiwan 1:05:22 Market impact, increased volatility, thinking in decades, managing risk 1:19:22 Car T-cell therapy breakthroughs and approvals; CRISPR patent controversy; Sacks makes a final point
Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1499535843207389186 https://www.onmanorama.com/news/world/2022/03/04/garry-kasparov-former-world-chess-champion-attacks-russian-president-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-twitter.html https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1574056/world-war-3-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-fiona-hill-us-national-security-council https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04 https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1499587642115117059 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/opinion/ukraine-russia-war-zelensky.html https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LUKOY:OTCMKTS https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/wheat https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1498873063378612227 https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/lindsey-graham-putin-russia.html https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1499385705591709698 https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/ https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/switzerland-russian-assets-freeze.html https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/02/28/sweden-arms-ukraine/ https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/04-april/e0403h.html https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/biography-george-h-w-bush-slams-iron-ass-cheney-rumsfeld-n457911 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=RU https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd/status/1499386637066727424 https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-wests-green-delusions-empowered?s=r https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084580235/russia-blocks-facebook-twitter https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/technology/ukraine-war-misinfo.html https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1497834538843660291 https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/fact-check-russia-ukraine-war-old-woman-not-giving-invading-russian-soldiers-the-finger-1920479-2022-03-04 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1496998762496946203 https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1499484089082007552 https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-pinned-war-stokes-stagflation-fears-2022-03-03/ https://twitter.com/zekejmiller/status/1499739582115553281 https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/wheat-corn-prices-surge-amid-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/2774260/ https://www.myelomacrowd.org/janssen-s-cilta-cel-car-t-receives-fda-approval-for-relapsed-multiple-myeloma/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/fda-approves-jjs-cell-based-multiple-myeloma-therapy-blood-cancer-treatment-wsj-2022-03-01/ https://www.fiercebiotech.com/research/a2-bios-activator-blocker-car-t-cell-therapies-show-early-promise-solid-cancers https://www.wsj.com/articles/crispr-patent-gene-editing-dispute-11646187911 https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1499588624664657926
Brief Summary
The episode covers the Russian invasion of Ukraine, discussing resistance, economic sanctions, and the implications of military involvement.
Key points
- The Power of Leadership. Zelensky's decision to stay and fight has galvanized Ukraine and the West.
- The Dangers of Disinformation. The conversation highlights the risks of misinformation during wartime.
- The Spectrum of War. A nuanced view on the current conflict, suggesting it's an economic war rather than traditional warfare.
- Economic Sanctions Escalate. The discussion revolves around escalating economic sanctions against Russia, with concerns about their effectiveness and consequences.
- Putin's Calculus. The conversation explores Putin's motivations and the potential outcomes of the ongoing conflict.
- Economic Independence. The conversation emphasizes the urgent need for energy independence from authoritarian regimes.
Episode highlights
- The Power of LeadershipZelensky's decision to stay and fight has galvanized Ukraine and the West.“His leadership has been strong and admirable.”4:25Mar 4, 2022
- The Dangers of DisinformationThe conversation highlights the risks of misinformation during wartime.“We have to guard ourselves against disinformation that is designed to escalate the situation.”11:55Mar 4, 2022
- The Spectrum of WarA nuanced view on the current conflict, suggesting it's an economic war rather than traditional warfare.“I don't like dividing our options into war and peace.”24:13Mar 4, 2022
- Economic Sanctions EscalateThe discussion revolves around escalating economic sanctions against Russia, with concerns about their effectiveness and consequences.“We're not even in the middle of them.”28:21Mar 4, 2022
- Putin's CalculusThe conversation explores Putin's motivations and the potential outcomes of the ongoing conflict.“What is the exit ramp for Putin?”28:26Mar 4, 2022
- Economic IndependenceThe conversation emphasizes the urgent need for energy independence from authoritarian regimes.“It's so obvious now that we need to be energy independent.”44:52Mar 4, 2022
- Fog of WarThe uncertainty surrounding the situation in Ukraine and Russia is highlighted.“We don't know what's going on over there.”53:22Mar 4, 2022
- Euphoria's Deterrent EffectEuphoria might be the best deterrent against drug use for kids.“It's either that or it's like the best deterrent.”1:04:52Mar 4, 2022


