E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
- Nov 4, 2020
- 2:59:58
- Full Episode
Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Follow the bestie guesties: https://twitter.com/bgurley https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth https://twitter.com/altcap https://twitter.com/jcpolls
Show Notes: 0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump’s early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal 10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more 20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome 24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more 41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020 50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses 55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump 1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger 1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns 1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state 1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more 1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders 2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other’s differences, understanding Prop 22 2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation 2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy 2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy 2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more 2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden’s election night address
Brief Summary
Live reactions to the 2020 election results reveal Trump's surprising performance and implications for key states and betting markets.
Key points
- Polling Discrepancies. Pollsters underestimated key demographics, leading to unexpected results in critical states.
- Polling Adjustments Since 2016. Pollsters have adjusted their methods to account for educational disparities in voter responses.
- The Impact of Lockdowns. Lockdowns have become a major issue affecting voter sentiment and behavior.
- Cultural Repudiation. 2020 marked a cultural repudiation of the elites, contrasting with 2016's economic focus.
- The Importance of Philadelphia. The election outcome may hinge on Philadelphia's mail-in votes, crucial for Biden's chances.
- A Protest Vote Against Elites. Voters express frustration with coastal elites and political correctness, leading to a Trump resurgence.
Episode highlights
- Polling DiscrepanciesPollsters underestimated key demographics, leading to unexpected results in critical states.“The polls are miles off on this and this is just amazing.”7:22Nov 4, 2020
- Polling Adjustments Since 2016Pollsters have adjusted their methods to account for educational disparities in voter responses.“The biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education.”26:28Nov 4, 2020
- The Impact of LockdownsLockdowns have become a major issue affecting voter sentiment and behavior.“Lockdowns weren't going to fly; they weren't sustainable.”35:49Nov 4, 2020
- Cultural Repudiation2020 marked a cultural repudiation of the elites, contrasting with 2016's economic focus.“2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites.”48:34Nov 4, 2020
- The Importance of PhiladelphiaThe election outcome may hinge on Philadelphia's mail-in votes, crucial for Biden's chances.“What an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost.”59:10Nov 4, 2020
- A Protest Vote Against ElitesVoters express frustration with coastal elites and political correctness, leading to a Trump resurgence.“This is just ordinary people saying that you know let us live our lives.”1:22:51Nov 4, 2020
- The End of ExpertiseExperts are losing credibility as people reject mainstream narratives.“It's the end of expertise.”1:36:06Nov 4, 2020
- A Call for EmpathyAddressing the divide between urban elites and rural voters is crucial for healing.“What do we do tomorrow?”1:46:59Nov 4, 2020
