E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

hello everybody welcome uh we are live at the all in headquarters and the all in podcast is now live we have 63 people watching already and bear with us while we get the besties on the line i'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after i tweet this but it is an eventful night and we had to start early because it's looking like this could be another shocker and i am not uh being facetious here i am not uh happy about this obviously but uh trump looks like he's been underestimated again this is not a blowout um we are going live early um this could be a shocker folks

okay so uh with me early on the pod is regular david friedberg uh david you're watching this early action and what's your early uh reaction to what we're seeing um you know trump's moved we there's no nothing definitive yet but uh he's moved uh in the results and he's moving markets we're seeing forex markets show a sharp indication um that trump has a real shot at winning here treasury markets and as phil hellmuth will share with us betting markets as well so it's more it is more of a nail biter um than a game seven of the warriors cavs so here we go there's a hell of an

ale biter guys and i'm just gonna say this uh the uk markets had it first they he was five to two uh you could you could get trump at five to two two and a half to one then it hit five to four and i thought that was quite crazy you're watching cnn you're watching these networks and they're saying oh my god biden's winning this no they're not even in the right neighborhood i'll never watch a network again on election night and now the market from five minutes ago 368 million pounds wagered 368 million pounds trump is now a three to ten favorite okay so for people who uh phil who are not gamblers if you bet that's three thousand dollars you bet three dollars no no jason you have to understand if you bet 13 okay you don't get 13 back you only get uh 10 back

okay now if you want to bet biden it's seven to four so if i bet seventy dollars uh if i bet forty dollars i can get seventy dollars back on biden now the shocker is right around 6 28 p.m uh the betting odds the markets were have been in biden's favor for three straight months i've been live posting them on my twitter all day the worst i saw was uh was trump was a was biden was minus a dollar 25 still a big favor to win and then boom and uh you know there are people in my house that are actually crying uh you know i'm very more much more in the middle of this thing but all of a sudden uh trump all of a sudden it

was five to four then it was even and then all of a sudden trump was nearly a a two to one favorite i'm getting live information from my friends right now um i'm seeing that uh that it's uh it's a little bit lower on some of these sites um i saw 267 that's for a 200 bet so he's a pretty big favorite um i saw the lowest i've seen is 217. but jason if you're watching the odds and i put some stuff on my twitter it's amazing how it went from you know minus 1.70 you know all the way down minus the 30 then it came all the way up to minus 1.70 this is crazy and and i've seen this movie

before in 2016 actually okay so we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win and that there were a couple of states that were critical uh for trump to win uh and it seems like those states that trump was critical to win um he has now won so let's bring in david sacks uh david we just turned on the live stream and boy is this a turn of events that i don't think any of us except for maybe you but you were very pessimistic on the last maybe three or four all in podcasts you're watching these results come in the betting markets have totally flipped to trump what are you seeing and what can we expect tonight what are you looking for yeah i mean it's looking just like

a 2016. i mean you're right that i was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done and there was no way to say anything other than you know trump was the uh was the underdog but at the same time i still thought that um trump had a really good shot because i was watching both candidates on youtube all the time they both were doing live events i wasn't watching it with the commentary i wasn't watching the clips i was watching trump do these rallies i was watching biden do these parking lot events and i would see trump do four or five events a day flying from

tarmac to tarmac on air force one having these huge crowds i saw him do this event in butler pennsylvania over the weekend it looked to me like there was tens of thousands of people there um and i remember trump saying a line like you know this doesn't seem like a second place crowd and you know it's one of those trump lines but you know it did put in my mind this idea you know he's got a point um whatever the polls say we're seeing tens of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical i mean just fanatical for trump and so you always had to think that he had a chance of pulling off an upset just like 2016. i will

say what i said on our text earlier donald trump ate the covid virus and killed it with his body and then he stood in front of the white house and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader he did not get elected he claimed victory beginning in 2016 and he has not and will not let go since then and i think it is that cult of personality that um cultural personality draws so many people in that are just um you know feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school and he uh he stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is it's a fake covet is a fake government is

fake the people are fake the media is fake i'm getting some late numbers i'm getting some late numbers here you guys um he's now at minus 1.59 to win pennsylvania and they took every other number off the board however if you're a biden person jason the number is only 2.17 right now um so uh oh wow the polls are posters were miles off on this and this is just amazing and it seems like from what we're hearing from the reporting is that the pollsters did not understand uh the latin or i guess latin x is a way to describe um a group of people who actually don't think exactly the same i've always had a a weird um understanding of this term latinx which seems

to come from the woke left but cubans puerto ricans mexicans these are different countries they're not all the same venezuelans venezuelans the this is not a monoculture uh just because they all speak the same language and we're seeing something very different happen in florida right now where male uh cubans maybe are voting very differently than what pollsters expected uh bestie chamoth is now fresh off a tight haircut and he's here on the pod hear me uh we've got bestie phil as our first bestie guestie of the night bestiep how are you best dp shamath you and i we shouldn't talk about this this is about politics but you and i were just filming high stakes poker in las vegas

on friday night it was great to see you bestie is there any indication you can give us besides i mean of course there's a presidential election that is going to determine the future of humanity but more importantly how did you each do in the high stakes poker game the biggest the biggest the biggest part of the night was around 400k maybe 500k played between me and dir yeah and he won he did not win the hand oh my lord won that one and uh it was i think it was beautifully beautifully played i think doug polk will definitely do a short video clip on it uh i did a i did a very uh very sneaky three bet pre-flop turn check um river over bluff and got him to call oh my lord a little set bomb i'm guessing but here

we go uh jason i can't wait uh since i'm here to promote promote promote everything i promote uh you can only watch these episodes of high stakes poker a lot of players favorite show you can only watch them on the poker go app they're coming out december 16th meet you moth phil ivey tom dwan ben lam a lot of your a lot of your heroes take it away oh well can't wait can't wait to uh and i have a subscription to that all in um i'm sorry the poker go app it's it's well worth it uh david sachs you have one of your i'm recording friends on the pod why don't you introduce uh one of your consulting friends and and uh we'll have him tee up what we think the possible scenarios are and where we're at right now

at this very moment it is 657 in california yeah so michael newman works for me as a researcher and um he's uh as a political scientist i guess you could say and i've known him since college and he's very uh steeped in these uh a lot of these races i don't know if he's yeah i have been obsessively following politics since uh the reagan election of 1980 so i i i i wasn't alive then so no i'm afraid i'm uh i was only 10 but i was already uh a political obsessive and as you can imagine a real hit with the ladies as well so tell us what what are the key states we need to focus

in on here and which one of them uh have enough reporting for us to sort of put them in a column and then move on and understand the path to victory for trump or biden yes well i mean uh depending upon which network or news organization you're following they're either calling calling a lot of states or they're being very conservative about their calls i mean nbc has still not called florida for trump but there's really no path for biden to win that state uh so you can put that safely in the trump column he has just taken the lead in north carolina after trailing all night we got about 88 of the vote in now and i suspect he's home free as is the

republican incumbent senator there can i can i can i just can i just ask a question i mean isn't it typically the case that the counts from the most populous urban areas come last and those tend to skew more democrat than republican that sometimes happens uh it depends on the state some states have their rural areas come in last one of the things that has changed the vote in north carolina is as the early vote came in as the in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came in the last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties that's why early on it looked very good for biden and now it looks like uh it's trending away from him wait a second north carolina according to the new york times and according to cnn right now is favoring slightly biden 49.7 to 49.1 percent for trump with 84 percent

i don't think that's i don't think that's quite current i think they're up to about 88 but again yeah it's very close what's interesting is uh biden had five potential states where he could have knocked trump out florida georgia north carolina ohio and texas yeah florida's off the table the others are still on the table but none of them are trending biden's direction at the present time so he uh yeah so far trump is is staying in the hand as uh as you poker players would would say he's uh he's uh he's getting the cards he needs to stay in the to stay in the game uh but we still have the river to play and the river would be in this case michigan wisconsin pennsylvania texas had an early lead for biden which was crazy to see right now it's got donald trump at fifty point three percent

buying at forty eight point three percent guys again so that's starting to normalize i i i go back to this one very critical thing the reason why michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania right now are trump is because you count the when the county is counted you can pass the votes and you can report and if you have 25 000 people in a county versus allegheny county which has like i don't know hundreds of thousands or a million plus people it just takes longer yes no i listen i don't characterize michigan wisconsin pennsylvania at all i think one of the reasons why michigan right now looks so red is because they're counting today's vote first a lot of these other states that like florida that had the option because their legislature allows them to do this they counted all that early vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile

as soon as the polls closed in the in the various counties so that's why you saw early on a blue mirage there what you're seeing in a place like michigan right now is probably a red mirage because it's it's today's vote which was going to skew trump uh because of the because of the way he presented it to his people he uh florida was the one state uh thank goodness for his uh sake that he encouraged people to vote early and by mail in the other states he encourages people to vote today so here's a here's a stat in pennsylvania i'm on the um secretary of state's

reporting dashboard they've counted uh only 12 of the mail-in ballots um which is and the total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million yeah um which is huge right and they've only it should be a majority of the vote i would imagine yeah yeah and they've only and they've only counted 24 actually sorry they've only yeah they've only counted uh a handful of precincts at this point a quarter of the precincts right so here's something i don't understand so uh nick carlson from uh was it like business insider he just tweeted um minutes ago that north carolina biden is ahead with 99 of the vote counted and biden has a less than

0.2 percent lead but it's 9 000 votes but that i mean that's that would be a huge problem for trump north carolina listen i think a loss in any of those five states florida georgia north carolina ohio or texas is probably by the way guys i just want to give a shout out to nothing who's listening here all the way from sri lanka he's listening he just texted me okay by the way guys right now the odds are three to one on the betting market so i mean obviously the networks i realized are completely useless i stopped watching them a long time ago when they had biden way ahead in florida and the odds were ten to one against right now if you want to bet trump is a three to one favorite on and there's been billions of dollars bad in england

australia all over the world he's a three to one favorite it looks like it's real to me and just a and just a just to build your side of the case uh nasdaq futures ripping s p futures falling and the 10 and 30 year falling remember ripping these are all pro-trump trades and the euro the euro collapse the euro dollar falling uh falling sharply once the markets turn towards trump well here's what they're reacting to is wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania trump is all up big time now but again that lacks a very basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populous you know or these sort of sort of these these uh bimodally

distributed states where they have a bunch of suburban and rural vote that's fast account and the big places for example like you know you're not going to see milwaukee and green bay report until probably close to midnight so the question is why are the betting markets so pro-trump then what do they know that we don't know i will say this let me say this jason i mean if you're like they're you're talking about billions of dollars right and so all you had to do was design a system to figure out how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple hundred million dollars okay these are the smartest people in the world there's hundreds of millions of dollars billions of dollars at stake they obviously do it ten times better than any other site

than any other network so this information i mean i give a friend of mine posted hey i'm laying two somebody knows something that we don't know while trump just on bovada trump just moved to minus 600. yeah he just took michigan unbelievable uh it looks like he's ahead in michigan but again we have to see detroit and there's there's a bunch of places in michigan let's let's let's let's the north so here's the north carolina secretary of state dashboard and they're showing uh two-thirds of the counties and you can actually see by county when you go onto their their dashboard the um you know the larger counties are partially reported most of the smaller counties are fully

reported um 63 total with um you know biden ahead by literally a thousand votes right now across 2.522 million to 2.521 million wow but what percent reported is that i mean uh it's 63 of the counties have completely reported and so the remaining counties if you look at the reporting status the remaining counties that are partially reported there's a mix of rural and some of the urban counties you know durham's in there partially reported uh so there is a mix it's not durham should be a biden county the research triangle is uh upscale well-educated professionals

that i think are the the backbone of the democrats uh coalition in a state like north carolina now they have um absentee votes that are counted and they have so far counted 3.3 million absentee one-stop votes and a million votes by mail but that's how many came in it actually shows that only five oh i see yeah okay that makes sense trump trump is now ahead in ohio two thirds two thirds of the votes post the link into the zoom chat so nick can pull it up on the screen please um i i need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who's not degenerate gamblers are is there a chance here phil and chamath gambling experts both

that people had put early money on biden and are now covering or hedging some of those bets is that a possibility here yes okay jason jason the line is minus a dollar minus four ten on pinnacle right now let me just double check that source so what what phil is saying jason is like yes there's going to be a bunch of essentially covering now that covering will swing the line but i think what phil is also saying is when a line moves this violently literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets the currency markets and the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been not just all day but frankly where they have been probably for the last few months that's what i was saying for three months straight uh right now biden has been a favorite anywhere between

three to one favorite at one point all the way to maybe you know 50 favorite and all of a sudden today the lowest i saw was a dollar 35 and i was kind of shocked and the next thing you know boom trump's a three to four to one favorite so and and i'm looking at cnn and i'm looking at these networks and they're still they still abide in the head and i'm like wow what is going on they're waiting that's that's the next thing we need to take care of jamal there's a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly there you go sex yeah well i think the betting markets know something we don't know because um trump is

just you know if you look at like the live stream on twitter or the new york times or something trump just slightly took the lead in ohio but that's the state he's supposed to win in north carolina it looks like with over 99 reporting it looks like he lost by 9 000 votes by the way a 9 000 margin would probably trigger an automatic recount of north carolina and there's like a hundred thousand absolutely ballots there i don't know if those have been counted yet okay so let me let's put let's pause for one second on this everybody north carolina is one of the four or five states trump has to win in order to have a victory right michael i i absolutely agree with that uh he had to have those five florida north carolina georgia ohio and

texas okay so we have florida he's got now there's four left there's four left georgia's a very slow counting state we really don't know all of atlanta could be out for all we know so we leave georgia on the side so now we've got four states we can work with north carolina is in biden's pocket by just a hair yeah that could change and it would trigger a recount which would take days to weeks yes another three states let's go through them systematically one by one michael okay uh ohio uh was the biggest surprise of the night when biden built an early lead there although again

a bit of a blue mirage based upon uh the fact that the mail-in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the democrats this year uh because they emphasized it and the republicans kind of fought against it but michael michael with 49 of the vote in ohio okay he had a right now biden had a massive lead and he had about a 400 000 vote lead would have to be correct and when you look at the betting odds he was five to one underdog to win the state so something doesn't add up there and you can you can say all right some of that is all the early voting went for biden we know that to be a fact but there's something else there okay i'm just looking at the uh results for ohio we'll stay on ohio for one more moment and then we

have another guest who just jumped on ohio is currently showing donald trump with two point rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million slightly rounding up for joe biden 52 to 47 with 78 reporting does that mean we feel comfortable with trump uh winning ohio unless all of cleveland is outstanding i would say that's a trump state yeah okay we now have john cohen on the line john is a uh member of the survey monkey team john welcome to the all in pod can you hear us thank you so much i i'm sorry i didn't hear what was going on i don't i don't know how much you've been disparaging pollsters so far um so we were waiting for you we're waiting to get here

tell us as we start what your prediction was earlier today well we're very clear to say that we're doing measurements not predictions okay that said the measurements that we are doing clearly pointed to biden advantages across the board but we didn't have we so far we have no surprises you know we had florida had been trump plus two basically all week going to dead even um you know coming into election day itself we don't know where the final votes will be most analysts think that it's in trump's camp it may end up there but it's super close we had georgia close we had north carolina close although and north korea had been closing it had been a big biden lead it was down to under two points um with the senate you know kind of even closer than that in some of our data

so you know so far there's no obvious surprise here like damn the polls were really wrong certainly ours you know it's our it's early though we're not declaring victory on those obviously there's a lot to watch but nothing really to surprise um you know us given the numbers so far what about ohio and georgia so we had ohio pretty consistently in trump's camp we had him up four so it's trending that way now we had as close as two points for trump i mean again i haven't mentioned the word margin of error that's in my professional obligation and duty to mention it it's around three points i believe two and a half in ohio so close but we always had it in trump's camp again biden that wasn't part of biden's you know any of the past the victory that the campaign was counting on so you know no big deal but we went from having a early night to now we're

for sure in for a really late night here john um let me ask you the one of the most basic questions that i've had which is what did we learn from 2016 and tell me what exactly did people try to fix like what was the thing that everybody got wrong and what changed well the biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education what we see in polling no matter how they're conducted whether online as we do a surveymonkey or still on the telephone which most media posters do is you get people with more formal education to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do people with lower education so the biggest thing you've got to do and we'll look we always did it so we weren't in the among the state pollsters who kind of failed i think um you know kind of negligently to really

adjust by uh education at all we always had just education but we what we failed to notice in 2016 was there was an increasing gap between those with postgraduate degrees and those with bas they've always been both to pro-democratic group but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large a fix to our polls which i just point out weren't you know kind of were actually standouts in the in the upper midwest in terms of showing it as a close race not clear clinton victories we broke apart post grads and grads into two distinct categories and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced air in our polling for 2016. so that's fixed we've used it to good effect again this time around we weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing we've had this between a four and six point national lead again we'll get

quickly into why national results don't matter but you all know that all too well everyone knows that all too well but we've had it kind of more narrow and that plays out in the states that i mentioned we had florida tied not a 4.5 and five point five and it vanished elsewhere you know but we'll see how it plays out in the midwest we also had wisconsin what was our final margin there i think it was you know kind of nine and nine and a half points not the 17 points that you saw from my former colleagues at the washington post and abc news so we've always had it a little bit tighter but again it plays how it's going to play out in these states and so far no surprises but the night is early and i'm i have a healthy dose of pulsar's paranoia jamal i don't know if that answered your question well enough but that was the main thing people did it's really helpful but now take off your poster measure you know chief research officer hat for a

second and put on just the american hat um what does it mean when you know we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016 and despite everything that's happened over the last four years we may be on the brink of another repudiation again if you you know where you're there to measure the pulse of what's going on but less in sort of measurement speak and just more in just plain american english speak john what like what's going on if this happens again see you're absolutely right there's something major i would also like to caveat it we are looking once again at if trump wins is because of the electoral college like he is going to lose the

popular vote there are still far more americans and american voters who voted today and you know kind of over the past several weeks who would prefer joe biden to be president so again we can't characterize with the broad brush the american voting population when this is about effectively i hate to call it a quirk but this is about our system of vote tallying and the president you know to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here the fact that many people you know some of us might be friends with can't understand why this isn't a hundred to zero race fail to understand that the president's base isn't small it is you know we've had it 44 to 46

approving of his job performance for many years now like he has a completely durable solid floor he also has a high ceiling right so he was never going to win the popular vote this time around but he had a chance at that electoral you know squeaking out another electoral college win because he's been so stable you know this is the president who you know kind of oh trump now had an nc thank you for uh the chat window so i think you're right that we need to understand more about what is the componentry of that 45 percent that they would support trump when the other 55 percent are so deadset against him and see it as something really wrong with the country so we still have two countries no what have you guys done to though understand the people that are voting

for trump better because i think that they are protesting and they're protesting a lot and i think that you know if we didn't listen to them 16 i think it's almost criminal to not listen to them in 2020 so what are they what are they saying what are they rejecting or what is it that they want because at the end of the day you know i think his incompetence can't really be debated competence versus incompetence i think what we can debate is he's a vessel and in that i think that it's incredibly important what's happening irrespective of what happens today because we were supposed to walk into a landslide we're not as you said we're going to be in a nail biter

what is what are what are they using him as a vessel to communicate to everybody else that's a really good question some of that will depend on you know a closer analysis of the surveys ours where we talked to more than a million voters and the exit polls are being deducted by two separate organizations today but what's the what are the story lines that come out of the election you know one of the things that's being reported early is there's a much tighter hispanic vote in florida than many early polls you know predicted how will that play out as we start to get votes you know coming out in texas how is it being arizona see arizona looking positively for um biden and mark kelly in the senate you know in arizona you know is it is it really hispanic votes that are driving some trump strength in these states or you kind of visit the obsession that the news media

has had for the past four years around the kind of trump middle-aged white male voter with less than college education who has been displaced by you know technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years i think it's going to depend on what that voting coalition looks like for trump and it's more diverse than i think we've been focusing on before i think i think you're saying an incredibly important thing i think that that was a ruse and i've always thought that that was [ __ ] it's not some undereducated rube that's running around voting for this guy um i think that there are there are people up and down the the age spectrum the socio-economic spectrum and this is what i mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages

and i think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean because um if biden loses to your point maybe in florida it's a repudiation of socialism okay but in pennsylvania it's going to be something else in michigan it's going to be something else in ohio it's going to be something else for him to keep winning right um and and i just don't think that there's a consistent idea and it's very dismissive to say that i'm not saying you are but i'm saying you know that idea that it was an out-of-work ex-factory worker you know in rural ohio that was protesting this is going to be much bigger than that because even if biden wins the popular vote

until we figure out how to rebalance balance the electoral college in a completely you know new way or just get rid of it all together we're going to have to live with understanding how some folks in these extremely pivotal states um are pushing back are they pushing back on political correctness you know that's one thing that i've always thought i think that there's a huge vote here against um i think those are the under reported uh lockdowns are the i think the biggest one of the biggest drivers no go ahead john go ahead john i was gonna say one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of attention is gender right kind of you know the storyline for a long time and and you think about you know kind of republican democratic politics is that you know you talk

about black voters and hispanic voters talking about them as if they're monoliths what we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that trump does much better among black men and hispanic men than he does among black women and latinas and that is just kind of like you know whereas black women are 95 5 you know he nears 20 among black men it blends into the what we've the 90 10 we've already seen look but look these these are measurements these are measurements i don't think they're telling you the whys of anything and i think for the wise you have to go a lot deeper i mean first of all let's let's talk about the lockdown issue can we just pull up that tweet nick

i mean so this is what i said back in may this was like months ago before the election even hit you know which is if the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of covid response because i think you know we all we all agree on that which is whether our lives and livelihoods belong to politicians to meter out and drives them drabs as they see fit and this was back when elon was being shut out of his factory in fremont and then there was this hairdresser named shelly luther in texas who was basically um put on trial for opening up her hair salon and the the judge wanted her to to grovel and beg for forgiveness

and this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns and it was so obvious back then that lockdowns weren't going to fly they weren't sustainable they were too politically unpopular um they weren't going to work and and by the way if it was something a cause that the left agreed with like you know a blm rally or something like that then you were allowed to do it you know it was that whole standard around um you know doing things that were essential and so you know this insistence on lockdowns even after the public had really repudiated them i think was a major issue for for trump and it was crazy to me that biden was still insisting on lockdowns you know still i mean that is his official position

um i don't think it's the only reason why he's in trouble right now but i think it's a big one i think if he if trump reaches the blue wall again of michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania lockdowns is the biggest reason why because those are three states that had extensive and still have extensive lockdown it hurts it hurts people i'll here i'll read you a tweet and i won't name who it's from it's from a farmer in um in the corn belt who's well followed on twitter believe it or not there's a whole ag twitter community and he says well it's the day does this country turn down the road to be like venezuela or do we continue on the road of capitalism and um he's had this acute um feeling that he's kind of vocalized on twitter for for months now on how painful the locked lockdowns have been on him and his family and his business and on the community and uh it just feels like overreach to a lot of people that the recognition that

um you know the left might be using to justify the decision is just not there that the the impact the near-term impact that folks are feeling is what's there and that's driving a lot of behavior right now boys all markets are now up everything is green dow futures s p 500 futures nasdaq futures oil is up gold is down and there were some guys that made some heavy bets against the dollar going into this thinking we were going to have massive inflation with biden policy coming up and some big fund managers that went really big on on shorting the dollar this last week um and the dollar is up right now yeah the dollar by the way we should we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important senate races because it's not just trump versus biden that there's also a bunch of hitler taking luber one in colorado again luber one in colorado

but there have been some you know some of the republicans who look to be in big trouble like lindsey graham have uh have pulled it out and have won and um so it's looking like the senate is still very much in play i would say as big a favorite as biden was the senate shifting from republican to democrat i say that was considered as equally big a favorite and that that may not happen now so we should make sure to talk about that at some point north carolina right now is 49.8 percent to 49 for biden 2.6 million versus 2.58 ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2 51 52 to 47 trump is beating biden i um i have a question for john cohen john um let's go back to um sort of your understanding as you've been measuring different trends have you

measured um people's sympathy towards lockdowns on a state by state level and then second question is have you measured people's sympathy to cancel culture at a state by state level and by the way you're on mute so if you want to just take yourself off yeah thank you we have not done anything on cancel culture we've done a lot on the coronavirus we've been tracking that actually in three countries since uh mid-february and we have a state-by-state look and what's interesting is we ask the question like this is primarily an economic issue or a primary health issue and those two have been running neck and neck but healthy kind of more people on average say it's a health issue than an economic one trump with trump's supporters overwhelmingly say the crisis is one that's financial not health related so there's always been that but it's been like a 45 55 gap

there so we've been measuring it state by state but there's a solid core of people and it gets to david's point about why what are they focused on what is the what is affecting them and their you know pocketbooks it is the you know lockdowns and the kind of clamping down and what is this economic crisis not a health care one even though that's what we all say that they should follow there was there was a there was a fantastic line that the democrats coined which essentially said something to the tune sexy poo you'll tell me if i get this wrong but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the for the rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag phrase for um for this election cycle and sort of to frame a lot of policies but when you have

in these states again if we say this cuts along socioeconomic lines but then maybe bleeds into um college and even you know uh graduate level educated folks is there a vote here for um rugged individualism and just leave me the [ __ ] alone there certainly could be i want to go back to what david said about measuring versus the why because i mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we're seeing across racial groups across the levels of education but i'm you know we're polling every day so you guys have the right why question you know send it to me you know sent to xander we'll we'll ask it you know we pulled 9 000 people today on you know kind of their willingness to accept the results and so we'll be putting that out tomorrow we have a we'll have an exit poll running uh every day from here on

to certainly until we get a result so if you have the question you want to ask send along we'll we'll get to the data at the state level all right john we very branch appreciate you coming on the pod and uh we will be checking surveymonkey's amazing data as we go um i'm going to switch now and just john john thank you and xander thanks for do for hooking that up thanks john thanks guys and we'll have some more bestie guesties coming up some fan favorites from the twitter and the poker group i just want to point out right now that it's very interesting to see that fox has biden at 129 electoral votes and trump at 109 and um some of the other networks have it much lower how do the networks make these decisions

of when to call a state because it's too early according to many to call florida but we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of where florida is at does anybody have any thoughts on that of well i think they're erring on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this we had a hundred over 100 million votes banked early through the mail or through early in-person voting and nobody sure how many more mail ballots there according to one side i looked at there were still 27 million ballots outstanding now some of those are redundant ballots like david's father-in-law who got three ballots in the mail in pennsylvania

and a lot of those are probably going in the trash but there could be another five to ten million of those to come in that are postmarked by today many states will accept them after the election as long as they're postmarked by election day so they're probably being very very careful that they don't make a premature call of course they all have ptsd about what happened in 2000 when they first prematurely called florida for al gore then prematurely called it for george w bush and we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in florida so uh i think they're going to err on the side of extreme caution across the board although uh i feel like the margin in

florida at this point is feels insurmountable now right that's florida florida's over florida's over it's about now it's about it's about ohio by the way the betting markets have just moved again big time so donald trump was at minus 600 now he's minus 250 on bovado phil what do you think about that yeah he's snapping back i will say let me let me address what jake jason was talking about a few seconds ago and that's it you know basically florida even the new york times had them at at 6 00 p.m at 95 percent to go to trump at 95 that was a new york times site my wife and i looked it up and the batting odds had him at over 10 to 1. this was at 5 30 this was two hours ago so i

mean i just think there's a huge inefficiency with with the way i think it was over as soon as the miami-dade dump showed that biden only won the early vote by nine points i mean hillary won by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state so how much of this do we think has to do with tax policy people in florida are retiring we have the aoc gang we have come on elizabeth florida it's his beloved state he has a place okay so so hometown favorite mar-a-lago i get that but you have so many retirees and we we have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the united states so i just want to open that up for the entire group to discuss of art are we seeing old people are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes

because we have had a flight in the last couple of years of people from high tax states to low tax states is this about taxes do you think let's start with you friedberg no one wants to pay taxes the [ __ ] like no one's gonna raise their hand and say i want to pay taxes but i mean there's a moment where taxes don't matter if well but romney romney was in favor or taxes and he you know he didn't win any any of these elections like the way that trump looks like he's going to i think that the the traditional republican messages message of taxes is sort of necessary but not sufficient trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that

previous republicans hadn't had abroad and i think that you i think you have to look at 2016 separately from 2020 and so starting with 2016 i think the big issue that trump that no republican really had ever figured out except maybe pat buchanan 20 years ago was the trade issue with china you know we forget that in the 1970s when the great chinese economic reformer deng xiaoping decided to open up the chinese economy the average chinese was making two dollars a day and today their economy is is roughly the size of the us now you know what was the reason for that well we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both

clinton's and both bushes that we should you know open them we should welcome them with open arms and we opened up our market to chinese products we brought them into the world trade organization but but that was the start that was the start of that was the the killer app or the killer issue that trump figured out and that's what shattered the blue firewall in those rust belt states i mean if you're going to try and figure out going back to 2016 why trump won you have to explain why he won michigan so you're saying our jobs they took our jobs but what i'm saying the manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl came in i mean that's his argument and um that was a killer argument i mean and the proof is in the pudding it's the proof is that he won these states that hillary thought were so in the bag that she didn't even bother to campaign there

so that was the big surprise at 2020 and the issue of taxes well no no no let me explain what's going on in 2020 in my opinion okay this is not a partisan explanation but i think that after the loss in 2016 look in business we know that when you lose when you make a mistake you make a bad investment or the company does something wrong you analyze what you did wrong right and then you figure out what changes to make the democrat party did not do that what did they do they blamed facebook they blamed it on russian interference they never really analyzed why they lost these rust belt states and made changes instead what they began was this hysterical

denunciation of trump um you had this sort of um you know you sort of had this this sort of um you know media culture uh tech uh industrial complex who decided that trump was a an illegitimate president and you know and so what they did is they went all in on impeachment they went all in on this russia stuff and in the process they created this enormous backlash and i think that 2020 if 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elites 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites that is the big issue in 2020 yeah i uh i tend to i tend to i'm sympathetic to david's view i don't completely agree with all of it but um just to build on something you said i don't think jason this has anything to do with taxes

um i think that in florida the if we if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened i think there's a lot of people um older people that probably lived through some version of mccarthyism and immigrants who actually fled really shitty totalitarian countries who were like you want to do what here and i think that there was a lot of people that basically are giving a very clear signal which is i'm a democrat but if you push me to the brink and talk about a socialized nanny state i'm going to vote republican so to david's point i totally agree to david's point if there was an economic repudiation of sort of traditional globalism

in 2016 and donald trump ends up carrying the day and today then it's a repudiation of sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that we're swinging to now the the answer to that may be to say change the electoral college because it doesn't represent the majority or the plurality of americans i hear that but in the same way that you know we've said for years now that the republicans will have to change to win the electoral college or to change to win what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions on social policy uh it may actually be the democrats that also have to change if this doesn't swing hard back in biden's favor so and

chamath when you when you make that statement i think what's particularly prescient is the democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white americans to people of color latinos black americans that they were just going to win all of them this is this is the best this is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment like if you take a thousand brown people and put us in a room what i will tell you is just in case here's a [ __ ] memo for all you white people out there we're not all the god damn same okay and if you put a thousand black

people here's the memo now for the democratic and the republicans they're not all the same you can take a thousand hispanics and it turns out they're not all the same so maybe you know you can take a thousand straight people a thousand gay people they're we're not all the [ __ ] same so maybe what this means is that we've moved past color and now ideology and social policy and economic and monetary and fiscal all of these things that the totality of how a rational well-developed makes person decision maybe that's at hand and before if we historically only thought you know older white men and white women could do it maybe now it actually applies independent of color and

gender yeah i absolutely agree with that and i would add to that that um uh if if trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the republican establishment if he wins again tonight it will lay waste to the democratic establishment and the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years the sort of uh chair uh emerging democratic majority case that they just had to sit back and let demography become destiny and they could just graft an identity politics onto the same neo-liberal economic agenda they've been pushing since the late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically produce majority results in the country they are going to have to go back to the drawing board and

and i think get more populist themselves and come up with some kind of version of politics that is isn't it it's more in the bernie mold it needs to be left but not woke isn't it going to be socialism it's it probably is going to be socialism but it doesn't mean that it's not like if you lay waste to the center you know you're left like i mean that's basically what happened to the republicans and now if you're saying the same is going to happen with the democrats this time around you're going to have aoc running for president in four years and i mean she won't be the right brand though because she's woke you guys you don't need uh aoc we need a charismatic democratic candidate somehow sharon brown keeps getting elected in

in increasingly red ohio as a old-school gravely voiced irish labor democrat and somehow bernie ignited a movement as a very old-school uh gravelly voiced jewish democrat neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics really they were principally concerned with inequality and uh income redistribution i uh i wanna i don't wanna see that happen but i think that's the only path forward for the damage hold on let's let me go to phil because phil had something he wants to add there and then we'll go to youtube yeah i wanna say that we needed for the democrats and uh they just needed to i think they needed a very they needed a charismatic powerful leader with a lot of charisma i mean i know that you know the i was hanging out with one of the trump guys that

was with him on the plane in the 2016 election he said that you know he outworked hillary there's no doubt that he outworked biden i mean this guy's going to seven rallies a day um showing up with a ton of energy and he has you know like iran he has a lot of charisma also i can't help but think that you're talking about repeating repeating repudiating sorry i'm getting that word wrong um to me this is all about i think a lot of people are really scared of socialism okay and i think it's just like even the young people that you know even the young people you know who say that they love it they're looking at their path to the future and and with and you

know they can they can still do great things there's no doubt you can still be a 20 year old and and make a billion dollars by the time you're 30 or 40 and i think with socialism that goes away i think that um look i uh i i think if trump does win um i don't think what it means is that you need a a person that's at the extreme left to win i actually counterintuitively would say the ob the opposite which is that you need just a more credible centered person now that may only be possible if the democratic party cleaves in two and the reality is the republicans may actually quasi cleveland ii independent of whether trump wins or not anyways and we'll see as david said how some of these senate seats break because if that goes in a different direction

you know for example if trump wins but we have you know a democratic tie in the senate maybe that's not possible um but um i think that would say a lot around um the need for pragmatic but more youthful leadership okay i want to go around the horn right now what is your gut telling me who is going to win given what we know right now everybody give it a thought uh when you're ready look into the camera and i will call on you michael you're looking into the camera who's gonna win if you had to pick one right now michael give us your best guess with this podcast because that would tell me a lot but uh uh i increasingly think trump is going to win

okay phil you're looking in the camera who do you think's gonna win we've seen this movie before um except that hillary was actually five to one favorite last time and i watched these numbers go straight up and now i'm watching the same thing it seems like although i will say this uh you know saks has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down i'm getting texts and they are popping up and now but still the lowest i've seen is 2.5 to 1 i think trump wins trump wins who do you got sax well i'm going to assume the betting markets know something um i'm still a little bit unclear on north carolina um because i saw some

tweets that fein had wanted by a few thousand votes but the um the the north carolina website is showing um that actually trump's ahead about like 70 000 votes so i'm not sure who to believe um and uh well yeah look i'm gonna i'm gonna go i'm gonna i'm gonna go with what the bad markets are saying which is trump and um you know i thought that he i thought he had a much better shot than the polls were reflecting and that's what it's looking like what do you got for you berg donald trump took on coronavirus for us he killed it he is our true leader and he will prevail

here in the united states of america tonight at least the betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the s p futures are telling me that donald trump's gonna win but i do think that the fact that this guy has never conceded defeat to anything in his life gives him a huge leg up and he uh you know he's he is like steve jobs he warps reality and he tells everyone i am going to win i have killed coronavirus and it happened um wait like a jedi knight it's like a jedi yeah all right four or four so far picking at uh exactly 7 45 p.m california time chamath who do you have at this point if you had to shove your chips all in uh i still think the path is um

um uh i um i think it's biden and i have the advantage of some information which is that they just announced breaking news they aren't counting mail-in votes in philadelphia tonight and i am going with so so we don't know uh pennsylvania tonight so if it's down to a few thousand votes philly i think is gonna break i think you can count that as three or four hundred thousand votes yeah and if oh it should be it should be five hundred thousand it should be five hundred thousand well then five hundred thousand would carry the state for joe biden yeah they've been they've got so a hundred thousand so they've got so i'm gonna i'm gonna stick with biden here because i think that uh that philadelphia vote count is uh crucial it turns out that it may it may come down to philly by the way

what an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost the city of underdogs the city of rocky uh i i think we can safely say that biden is going to win the popular vote and it might be by four points five points which means that there is a discrepancy uh between the popular vote and electoral college we're going to hear a lot about that because uh i i am going to go with bison because my heart is going to be so broken this country picks this sociopath to run it for another four years after his absolute failure to content to do even the most modest things to battle coronavirus and the strife he has caused between americans and his personal style

is so heartbreaking to me that i don't know that i can believe in america if they put this absolutely sociopathic person who has the least amount of character of any other human being anybody on this call has ever met in their lives it would be a complete absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into office for a second term what do you really exist hold on it's an existential threat to the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world if this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn [ __ ] more years i'll make up for that's my personal feeling i can't i don't care what the statistics say right now in my

heart i cannot give that man even a benefit of the doubt if he wins garbage if he wins is fouchy the first guy fired oh i think you can count on it and challenge you and christopher ray the fbi director and right and increasingly maybe bill bart too and somehow bill barr is not enough for the sync shred of credibility or honor is gone i wanna i wanna just say to to jkl i um i really empathize with how you're feeling because i have never as a person that has been a citizen of three countries when i moved to america in 2000 i have never really i mean you know edge cases yeah i've

felt some racism here obviously you know i've but i've never felt so unwanted and i remember 2016 for the first time in my life feeling a level of insecurity i had never felt before because i was so afraid i didn't know what it meant for donald trump to be elected four years later um you know in in so many ways uh it's like two realms of a coin you know um i leave my house and uh you can just see that there's just so much pain and divisiveness i come back into my little world and things seem to be really great and that's a really really terrible feeling to have jason so i

i know exactly what you're talking about i wanted to tell you guys um you know i there was like a i i've always been sort of like okay bryden's gonna win biden's gonna win biden's gonna win and then there's a weird thing that i did and you guys can see it in the fec filings but i gave a million bucks this year in the elections but i gave 750 to the senate and i gave 250 to buy and i didn't understand why i did it um and i and i and i explained it to nat as she's like why did you do it that way and the best way that i could explain it is i i think that there are so much i don't know about what is driving the vote for president that i wanted to make sure that you know

there are checks and balances and the best check and balance was to you know make sure that there was actually some senate um check and balance on biden i mean on uh on trump so you know i'm i'm going to jason i'm going to accept the result um i'm going to try to figure out what the [ __ ] i don't know because this is yet another layer of i clearly don't know what the hell is going on um think i can tell you pretty assuredly guys uh any result that's called tonight i think is going to be uh incomplete because they're not going to call pennsylvania because they're not going to call philly and so if there are in fact three no i think the the exact math is about 350 000 votes that show up in philadelphia a gap of 350 000 votes that show up in philly um biden will do what he needs to do by the way how many people live in philly does anybody know

how many registered voters friedberg is it is that billy there's a lot of it's supposed to be like half a million votes coming in there and i think they've counted a hundred thousand um and so i think it'd be more than half a million usually the dims uh margin is about half a million the margin yeah philly is uh i want to say our fifth or sixth largest market they've actually got it lifted it's a pretty significant population that link i sent you there nick and then if you click on uh click to view precinct reporting you can see the data right now sorry it's tough to read

yeah i mean we care about allegheny and then what else do we care about you care about philly and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of philly like box county and chester county and um there's a there's four or five ringed suburbs of philly that used to be the uh centerpiece of country club republicanism they're the the counties that elected arlen specter to the senate but over time as the republicans moved right they moved more toward the democrats michael do you know why they're going to stop reporting um mail-in ballots tonight why would they do that they just probably just uh to go home and sleep for a while before they pick it up tomorrow pennsylvania unfortunately and michigan as well are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed uh that's why those uh

states in the sun belt we were all looking for uh to be a early bellwether because look at that guys 4.81 this is unbelievable unbelievable what what are we seeing here what's unbelievable so what that means jason is that uh in philadelphia there are 176 precincts okay of those only 82 have reported the their ballot tallies so you have 95 of the precincts in philly not reporting if you take michael's framework and say there's a swing of 500 000 votes if it goes historically democrat as it has in the past you attack on five hundred thousand net new votes

to um to abide and you know and uh he uh he ekes out a win yeah he it goes blue probably in that scenario yeah so then it becomes about but remember though if trump is holding um if he manages to hold michigan he could lose pennsylvania it wouldn't matter he had a little bit of a margin he had what he had 306 electoral votes last time so if he holds everything he had minus pennsylvania actually he could lose michigan too as long as he carried wisconsin he has it has to have one of those two but i think wisconsin's difficult so for all of our uh listeners and watchers in new jersey they legalize recreational pots so go out and get yourself some cheese yeah i'm gonna i'm i just took four gummies after my little tirade there because

the two xanax weren't working so that's going to get really strange for me in about an hour just to go back the reason i mean are we going to crack a bottle of wine or what somebody got i already got one yeah this is mostly coffee but trust me there's some irish whiskey michael i guess i'm speaking to you but it looks like i'm seeing reports of the sound of arizona pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin unfortunately all four of those states are going to probably take at least a day arizona three days i think to count maybe not this year because so much of the vote was early maybe it'll move faster but they are notoriously slow counters so settle in it could be the weekend before we have a result wow okay so let me just drop this if we don't know tonight what is going to happen over the next

week and we're going to be we're going to be we're going to need a lot of gummies jason no i mean joking aside i think everybody's going to be tense jay i think i don't i don't think you're going to see a lot of action one way or the other i think that people i think people in america are incredibly good people i think that folks are just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job do their job um i i hope you're right chamath but when i see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars when i see people bringing guns on both sides horrible people on both sides bringing guns militia style to specifically taunt each other when you see people getting shot in the street

chasing each other down over politics this is something that has not happened in our lifetime i mean phil's very old so he kind of remembers the 60s but for the rest of us under 68 we we have not witnessed americans shooting each other in the street over politics we have not witnessed people taking people out of their lives because of politics and this is got trump's fingerprints on it from you mean since this summer i mean what about all the looting and rioting and protests my point is when trump got in office his character and his ability to trigger people his ability to abuse people his rhetoric put everybody on tilt i'm not saying people looting stores are correct

but what i'm saying is george bush and ronald reagan your heroes bill clinton obama other people's heroes on this call there was a there was a a kindness in our differences and when people conceded they conceded with grace and this individual this horrible human being bush wasn't and we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual has removed from america so jason i'm not going to defend that's going to happen in the next week because i'm not i'm not sure each other leading up to this i think the next week should be incredibly violent

you are fake news thank you for that you are fake news now look uh jason i'm not going to like disagree with you about any of that um i the the only thing i would add though is i do think that the media has been a co-equal partner in sowing this chaos and divisiveness because you know we used to have a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality yes and they ripped the umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy trump and um and why do you think they did money it's very profitable trump trump has made big money aside picking a side is is definitely more profitable you get more subscribers it might also be that they were absolutely

suffering from trump derangement syndrome from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate children from their parents at the border yes but they're supposed to they have a job to do they're supposed to be neutral there's supposed to be a rational contribution to trump yeah but exactly but but the reason why trump is doing well or better is because the opposition to him is increasingly irrational and um and people have voted for trump to to basically give the middle finger to you know to the to the media who you know again who are taking sides to these big tech sensors you know who don't want us to read things that are critical of trump um you know and so on down the line i mean i i tweeted earlier i mean rich lowry had a great post explaining why if trump was gonna win why you know why that would happen and it's because

he's the only middle finger available to these people and uh you know i don't disagree with you he's not being no one's voting for trump because of his integrity perceived integrity oh no or um integrity it's the first time i've heard integrity in the same sentence as trump i thought you're i'm agreeing with that point um i'm saying they're not voting for him because of that they're not voting for him because of even a second term and they're voting for him in order to to stop cultural forces they don't like i have two things to say decidedly by the way two things to say um according to um the national political writer for the philly inquirer jonathan tamari his tweet of 7 35 p.m said actually it was even greater than we thought there are still 2.2

million mail-in ballots to be counted in pa about 87 percent of the total so if that's true then we have that and philly number one the second thing i wanted to say is that if you actually look at the psalm counts right now in pennsylvania it's 371 591 votes that separate trump and bible wow so it's uh you know not that much guys if 2.2 million votes are outstanding yeah but if it's if it's two if it's let's see sixty percent or two third kind of to one third slash forty percent and it's not let's say it comes in under that right they probably counted a couple hundred thousand already i mean it is still pretty close yeah um really close let me um let me ask

jamaat do you think that part of the reason we're seeing futures markets jump and the dollar jump and um uh and all the kind of uh obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a trump win but because the risk of a hung election seems to be coming out of the system right now that it seems like we're gonna have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would florida is going to be much more clear that's always a worry state um georgia is going to be clear obviously we've still got pennsylvania to kind of figure out here but it seems like this is going to break one way or another whereas a lot of folks were concerned we'd end up in the court fighting overhanging chads for months and there was concern in the

markets for months about that um do we think yeah no i think that people were basically look there's a reason to be long biden in the markets which is essentially that there are certain sectors of the economy that would have done very well those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than trump's under a trump regime the reality is that corporate taxes broadly speaking are not going to go up and so you know you can forecast higher earnings power for every stock and so everything goes up i think what's happening right now is more of that relief trade of maybe trump was winning so you could be kind of long everything blindly um but you know the real canary in the coal

mine was like if you looked at tech futures tech futures was just going bonkers when they thought he was going to win because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes because they pay no taxes today um i um so so that's like kind of like what i what i think is happening on on that side i mean trump is very pro-business that's why the markets are ripping right i think i don't know i mean i feel like there was a real concern like there was a a non-zero case here call it a 30 case that we were gonna get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and litigation about where this election was gonna go i think i think it's fair to say that we we still we we could still have that david because we don't if if this goes to tomorrow i think it's

fair to say that that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow whoever loses pennsylvania should ask for an immediate recount right right and i don't know what the pro they have to i don't know what the process for that is if whoever loses um arizona should ask for an immediate recount you know whatever is possible under the law i think both biden and trump will exercise because let's face it this is the highest stakes possible and so you would hate to not if it's a margin of a few thousands of votes or tens of thousands of votes or even a hundred thousand votes and you're allowed to do a recount so um if that's the case tomorrow morning if we go to bed in another hour and a half or if we finish this thing in another hour and there is no winner uh clear winner i think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow so

david your thesis is that your thesis is a clear winner the market's ripped either way i think yeah clear winner it's just like there was a lot of grinding expected here that was going to cause a lot of you know trepidation and bouncing for a while that folks were concerned about and if you feel like you're going to have a clear election outcome or whether or not it gets litigated if you feel clear about where it's going to go because it's 55 45 you know i'm sure they're going to ask for a recount good news for everybody it makes sense look i i think the market does not want those trump tax cuts repealed stocks just ripped after um trump passed those corporate tax cuts so um if either trump wins or the republicans hold on to the senate then that would be a reason for the market to rip doesn't mean it doesn't mean trump has to win but it but but if we have divided government gridlock

so between the two of you the best best possible scenario for the market is if trump clearly wins okay i think i think we have another investigation is it the case if we look at the senate races um i don't know if anyone i don't know if there's an easy way for us to pull this up but we have to go pull that up david and i just want to introduce our next bestie guest brad gerstner is here right now multi-billion dollar i believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund yeah and he invests large swaths of money in the american economy has a very is he the best travel investor of all time jason calganis he's up there but um he certainly i would i would guess brad

with covid and airlines being grounded this has not been the easiest year for you so apologies no brad brad just made 10 billion dollars on snowflake he's fine uh snowflake man brad uh what's going on tell us what's going on what do you know well um kyle um it's a um it's a fascinating night i mean all markets are ripping we've had a massive reversal in the nasdaq a massive reversal in the bond market um and it it appears that you know everybody's now who is worried about a trump victory is now celebrating the trump victory um you know one of the things people didn't understand about a clear biden victory is the underlying concern in the bond

market right if there's one thing to explain the expansion of multiples in the market this year is the fact that rates have collapsed right so the 30 and 10 year went from you know a couple hundred basis points 20 months ago to basically 50 basis points in august of this year we've seen them back up about 40 percent over the course of the last couple months we see them backing up again tonight the fact is the the market is seriously concerned about higher rates which are the result of both a turbocharged economy too much stimulus on top of you know uh vaccines and prophylactics for covid and so you know if you ask me you know we get all

excited about the election we get all excited about stimulus and tax policy but the biggest elephant in the room is the fed in rates that's the 80 to 90 factor in the market this year in q4 of 18 and so what i'm what we're looking at you know we see the the nasdaq now up 350 bips the future's up 350 bibs so that says trump's winning we're not going to break up the tech companies we see the s p starting to rise again and we see the bond market falling saying that we're going to have lower stimulus right in the market um so you know i i i've heard i've heard y'all talk about you know a clear victory certainly is better than not a clear victory uh but you know

not withstanding our own [ __ ] anxiety that we have to live with for the next four years in the short run the market is clearly voting on um you know is is voting that trump is a palatable alternative um and i would tell you to keep your eyes on rates as much as you are on the market brad more than uh a great manager of money you're actually a great human being but you're also very wired into the dems um what are the dems getting wrong if they lose today well you know first this is an upset already tonight let's call it this is a massive upset relative to expectations win or lose the reversal in in the betting markets the reversal in the

stock market you know it's just earlier tonight it you know a well-known organizer's house uh on the democratic side there is despondency this is a massive upset uh by trump and once again a massive misread by the progressives and organizers in the democratic party you know i had my 84 year old mother out here from michigan over the weekend and i'll tell you that ordinary people are made to be to feel bad about themselves by people living in these parts the sanctimony that exists in urban areas you know and coastal elites is just it's you know this is what we're

seeing people vote against right the idea that you're going to close down the state of michigan not allow people to take their boats out on lakes this is just you know not something that people are willing to tolerate and i think more than anything else tonight you see a protest vote against sanctimony um and this is just ordinary people saying that you know let us live our lives don't act so much smarter than us um you know and you know i asked my 84 year old mother you know who she voted for she goes don't ask me who i voted for that's none of your business right like that's her way of telling me right that uh you know that

she's frustrated by how people in san francisco make her feel living in michigan i think that's i think that's brad that's so smart but david sacks before you talk he's talking about you well no look i mean i'm on twitter and i echo technology extremely i mean it's usually vcs basically they can't comprehend how somebody could have a political opinion that's different than them without that person literally being evil i mean i see this on twitter over and over and over again i'm like really yeah but but but but this is like most of silicon valley and i'm just like look i mean political opinions are like [ __ ] i mean everyone's got one and to think that yours is a lot prettier than everybody else's and it's a bit ridiculous

um oh welcome everybody to the podcast if you're just tuning in well the family hour just ended there we go wait brad brad can i ask a question sure what um like what what do we do yeah you know for me listen a trump victory the reality is we've learned to tolerate the anxiety over the last four years and i think the market's fully prepared to uh to manage its way through another four years of trump so i think that's you know the reason we're seeing the the futures react the way they are is it's a whole lot of nothing i mean the fact of the

matter is asking how do we get off of our horses if we're on horses the social elites well i mean um this is going to take a complete rewiring right like an abandonment of um you know the i mean listen you you and i all know the exodus of people out of the bay area right now right the fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics in the democratic party in the state of california vacated long ago and you know that is not a recipe for victory it's not a recipe for victory at a national level it's not a recipe for victory or tolerable victory at a state level i think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic uh the single largest economic migration

in the history of this country the convergence of covid which allows people to work from anywhere and the risk of changing tax policies in states like california is going to cause mass economic migration and i think that people are voting with their feet and they're voting with their wallets and they're voting you know tonight in in loud numbers no matter where this where this comes down this is an upset and a defeat for what democrats expected to occur tonight do you buy the framing brad that this is about political correctness versus cancel culture yeah i think that's i think that's a big part of it i mean like you know um i think it comes out

it's it it's amplified this year because of covid but it comes down to something very simple which i talked about um you know sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants right she's like oh you fancy people who live in san francisco you have all the answers right this is just the way that people in indiana and michigan and ohio they're made to feel every day you know they'll sit around watching fox news these are not people who are racist right chamath i heard you say earlier tonight the idea that trump could pull what he's polling and yet if you talk to all of our friends they would have you believe that it was just a small band of you know racist pickup drivers carrying trump flags i mean they are their head is in the sand

yeah this is this is ceos yeah you know these are business owners these are small business owners these are farmers these are old people these are young people i mean the the millennials you can't find a millennial in the state of indiana or michigan who supports biden right you can't find them and i mean just to add to that point about what they think about people in san francisco why shouldn't they think that when tech giants and the people who work at these big tech companies like twitter and facebook are asserting a right to censor articles that they don't like and trying to assert a power over what the american people get to see and read i mean what a campaign issue

that was for trump in the last two weeks i mean whatever twitter and facebook thought they were doing to protect or help the biden campaign i mean what a blunder i mean to give trump the issue of censorship in the last two weeks and then the extraordinary thing you know we had that that congressional hearing in the senate commerce committee that i wrote a blog about and the amazing thing is right on the heels of that after that hearing when we heard jack dorsey get that you know he just got grilled he got ripped apart by the senators twitter doubled down on censorship after that there's an article by jonathan turley talking about they censored a whole new batch of accounts and so if anything you know it'll be really interesting to see i think you know if you think back four years ago facebook was really for whatever reason became the scapegoat

for the election i think this time around it's going to be twitter because they have been so arrogant and they're assertion of their right to censor viewpoints that and if the republicans hold on to the senate um and or the presidency i think you're going to see jack dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target and the paradox friedberg is that had they just let that new york post story be tweeted because it's the new york post this is i mean you may not like the new york post it may have assorted past or reputation but if that had been a new york times story washington post story or an msnbc story or a cnn story it would not have been banned because it's a rupert murdoch new york

post story and because it was salacious somebody mid-level inside of twitter decided to ban it how much you of that do you think plays into what we're seeing here tonight freedberg which is this is not uh a small event this is a large group of people saying i don't want anything to do with the democratic party anymore i just think back to 2016 and um you know everyone has their own priorities their own individual things that matter to them and i remember in 2016 or leading up to it i spent a lot of time in what we call kind of the rust belt and the farm belt um if you'll remember this was around the time of kind of the transgender

bathroom um you know movement yeah yeah yeah and this was felt very much like a coastal elite um topic of interest if you're in the rust belt in the farm belt you're like what the [ __ ] how is this possibly something people are spending time on and arguing about and thinking about and the disconnect between the priorities of the individuals that live in the vast part of the united states versus what they read about and hear about others treat as their priority um i think is what partially helped support trump getting elected in the first place because the things that matter to them that they felt were highly consequential um were completely unrelated and not

being paid attention to while other folks you know that had the money and the power in the big cities were focused on social matters and social issues and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority and i think that fast forward to 2020 and it hasn't moved in the right direction it's moved in the wrong direction where the the the disconnect is no longer a passive difference of priority it's actually become an active interest moving against you and so if you live in the corn belt or the rust belt or vast parts of rural america to your point you're now not only feeling that there's this disconnect but you're also feeling like this point of view is becoming um overwhelming and stopping you from having a point of view and i think whether your point of view is rooted in fact or not you can base that however you want um it just feels like it's becoming a silencing effect

and not just kind of a a you know ignoring the effect and i think let me yeah let me just jump in here uh i wanted to come back to this but i want to just jump to something that bogut just tweeted andrew bogut thank you for this um detroit philadelphia and milwaukee are all planning to post vote counts tomorrow as they work through absentee backlogs so if we look at the counts that really could mean that phil you know uh pennsylvania wisconsin and michigan are either too close to call or not even yet ready to be called until tomorrow morning um i think

let's take a pause here and let's go through what the swing states are and where they stand at this very moment arizona is an important toss-up state correct let's pull up arizona nick uh let's all just take a moment to look at arizona we're gonna go through about six or seven of these states and just get our bearing right now because when we did the quick survey about 45 minutes ago four of us believed trump was gonna win two of us believe one of us emotionally and of us somewhat emotionally believed hold on before you start this i just want to read a tweet um two two tweets number one from nick bilton when do we get to vote on when we fire nate silver and the second one wait the second one which is even funnier he's named nate silver because all

his picks come in second place oh ouch wow i mean i i was tweeting you guys before the election i mean the nate silver thing was a joke first of all he was saying that biden was 90 favorite and at the same time he said that if trump won pennsylvania then he would become the favorite but you knew that trump was a few points of the margin of error in pennsylvania so how can you be a 90 favorite but some but but but pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck i mean even his own internal projections weren't consistent with each other i mean here's mate silver one of the best sports predictors in history he's been an absolute genius he stepped into politics and now you guys are lashing yeah but this this is the worst case of analytics since uh tampa bay pulled their picture in the sixth inning of uh the world series

i mean i if we look at what's happening it's very clear that there are people who are either lying to the pollsters because they're embarrassed about their choice or they may actively be trolling the pulsars so when a pollster calls them they lie to them to have this exact moment happen just like the tick tockers all registered for a trump event so now we have a level of trolling going on at a national level i think there's a simpler explanation and that's that we're not all trolls i think the simpler explanation is that pollsters are empiricists and they're experts and uh like a lot of experts you you can kind of you can kind of interpret the trump phenomenon of of over performing now

two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against the experts uh and they don't see their biases uh the way they should they're they're blind to certain things there's really no excuse for how bad they missed this one because michael they may have been experts yesterday but they're not experts well this is i mean this is what trump does this is why people support him in spite of the fact that i don't think anyone disagrees with jason's opinion of his of his character is that they love sticking it to the to the eggheads you know right yeah brad what happens to um media like what happens to how we conduct ourselves like do you do you read the new york times tomorrow and think wow i'm going to trust the times i'm not saying you did before but i'm just using it as a generality to sort of ask the question like what happens to media no i think i i

think our belief in you know all of these polls and all of these mainstream press i mean this validates the arguments effectively that trump has been making right that you've been told lies that these polls were lies that everybody was trying to manipulate you i mean it's this is a validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at washington and at the coast and they're saying we're not going to be told how to believe how to think how to vote um how to wear masks how to wear masks and you know it's a dangerous side to this 100 it's the end of expertise i mean who who can we ever trust i mean and this is putin ironically it's the experts who got mass wrong remember that at the time that i was saying that we should wear

masks the who was saying we shouldn't so they were lying they were deliberately lying to keep uh ppe from being overrun by so the experts have done a horrible job on covet too jason i mean look i think that's yes but now the cynicism of trump and his approach to absolutely undermine fauci and say to and admonish people wearing masks while on stage is a level of danger and and is in is a little different that's insane so know that mass work you actually were a proponent of it yes of course math should never become a poor question trump last week said don't wear a mask

no he never he was he literally made fun of a person wearing a mask let's just run through issue okay um right it should have been a bipartisan response and it's unfortunate it became a political issue um but uh and i'm not not forgiving that and it took trump way too long to get on board with mass i think right around the time my blog was published a few days afterwards first he said it was optional you could do it if you want it took him about another three months to actually say that master a good idea i agree that had he just gone all in on a mass policy i think this would not even be a close election i mean that was probably the single biggest blunder that he made politically this year um 100 agree okay so we agree on that but but but look but you're missing the other half of it which is what is our cova policy going to be today and the reality is that joe biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record

as being in favor of lockdowns and in fact they are doing lockdowns the only reason why michigan and wisconsin but i say especially michigan would ever be in play tonight was because of lockdowns absolutely i agree yes this is a resounding rebuke of lockdowns let's uh just zip through these real quick arizona pull it up nick arizona here we are buy it in 54 if we round up 45 for donald trump 75 looks like arizona is going to uh biden next up let's take a quick look at iowa um iowa 64 percent in and we're in a essentially a dead heat with yeah i was going to trump jason

i was going to trump you can see how that numbers come down yeah as the uh election day vote starts to trickle in that's going to trump so they were one of the states that did the um drop off ballots mailing ballots first yes i think i think that's fair to say yeah okay ohio critically important let's take a look at ohio while we're here uh ohio wow that's really flipped hard with a commanding lead yeah you can kiss that one goodbye yeah ohio north carolina we are now within one can we just all agree if we were i mean right if we're momentum investors i mean this thing is

this is a disaster for biden right it's a disaster this is a disaster for biden and on top of this all our talk is about the presidency they're not going to get the senate either no no uh tillis is running ahead of uh trump in north carolina so i think he's home free and well the vote in maine is not fully in yet there's only about 41 percent collins has a 40 000 vote lead which susan collins keeps her seat that is the biggest that that is like the mega upset the democrats were already they were targeting her two years ago after she voted for kavanaugh yeah okay the best that as we think through this by the way just keep this in mind cnn right now shows i mean

cnn's head must be up their ass or we don't know what we're doing but they show 192 to 114 biden um oh yeah because they call them california that's right they called california when the polls closed so that's 55 that went yeah okay north carolina here we go uh we we or we did north carolina i believe yeah we're at uh 95 reporting and trump has a a lead that looks like he's yeah and unless there's a lot of charlotte out i think that north carolina is over and that by the way that uh percentage is outside the recount uh window i think you have to be within one percent okay let's take a look at georgia for a quick second we said that michael do you know if we've counted north carolina's mainland i think that i think they were all dumped at the outset right north carolina one of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that like florida they can count in advance and so they dumped they dumped a bunch right at

the outset here by the way i just got it by the way i just checked the betting lines trump is over a three to one favorite to win the election right now the later at the later it goes the more significant that is wait why did it come down to 200 on bovado that's the lowest it's been i just got three to one on one of the sides oh this has two to one yeah that's the lowest um if you assume that biden takes arizona trump takes north carolina south carolina georgia let's go let's give him pennsylvania wins arizona uh if biden wins arizona he could lose michigan so georgia is currently fifty-four percent declared that biden won arizona oh well

okay that's a quick call uh items has to take pennsylvania okay so now this is what i'm saying this is why this is in place so if you assume biden takes arizona so that's now on the table now if you say that trump takes north carolina south carolina georgia pennsylvania florida texas ohio et cetera he still needs to pull out a victory in michigan wisconsin or minnesota otherwise get this or nevada well actually nevada wouldn't be enough nevada wouldn't be enough yeah otherwise let's go to minnesota guys hold on guys hold on just let me finish please it's going to be if trump so if that happens trump needs to win one of michigan wisconsin or minnesota otherwise it's 270 268 biden wow okay so here's minnesota let's just pause for a second biden with uh biden's got a

56 to 42 with 54 percent in so there's a lot more to come in but i think michael you would agree that's a bridge too far i i never thought minnesota was in play uh the republicans the republicans put a brave face on there uh and they are making some gains in the rural areas but minnesota was never in place okay time to go to wisconsin time to go to wisconsin let's take a let's pause here we got to do this step by step everybody wisconsin 51 to 47 donald trump with 54 percent that too i think feels like a bridge too far or do we not know if they did we don't oh you know i think wisconsin is another one who's probably counted their election day vote first so no so still very much alive in wisconsin yeah exactly milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow

morning yeah michigan we need to take a quick look at michigan and then we're almost done okay here's michigan donald trump at uh trending to 55 to 44 for biden only 44 percent are in and let's be clear is this um detroit tomorrow okay is that michigan detroit yeah that that that wayne county vote is very low yeah look at that 28 percent a lot of more lot more votes there okay so we don't know about michigan michigan is very much up in the air that's that's a pretty good margin for trump there but i would say it's very much up in the air but by the way if you put arizona in biden's column he can lose michigan let's take a look at pennsylvania one

more time actually and trumath is right he could lose he could lose either michigan or pennsylvania and still he could have trump needs to win michigan wisconsin one of michigan wisconsin or minnesota so basically forget minnesota if destroyed so okay so then if detroit doesn't show up and milwaukee and green bay don't show up trump wins pennsylvania does that assume that he wins pennsylvania yes if i give you if we give him pennsylvania so again this is why i think guys um it feels like biden as i said i'm a little shaky on my prediction right now actually i think the the betting markets are showing uh it's tightened almost to even and let me ask brad a question brad

if the betting markets are saying it's almost even and the analysis we just did isn't missing any information yeah why are the um futures markets still trading up one and a half points and why are things still you know i i think that listen the the the stock market's ripped the last two days assuming that biden's gonna win and i think what the markets are starting to uh price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave there's no mandate here for massive tax reform there's going to be a divided senate it's going to be hard to pass legislation that's going to be overly onerous that the stimulus package is going to be smaller not larger which is why the the rates are backing up so i think from a i think from a public markets perspective the

idea that we're going to have some checks and balances in place it can live with either the the devil we know uh or it can live with biden but it doesn't want biden with elizabeth warren as treasury secretary so democracy survives i i think scenario three is starting to look very possible a biden and a republican senate and uh i can sleep soundly with that i don't i don't know we're gonna have to i mean you guys i don't know what odds you're looking at but uh but i mean 1.9 is i mean that's like that's a huge significant right there it's still good i give you that but uh i don't know those those numbers it's moving fast

i want to take it it's down to 180 yeah i want to go back to this topic um that that brought up um okay guys look we'll have a winner and it's going to be closage um but think of how many people um like isn't there any empathy for all these people that are that just feel so completely shut out of the system like what do we do tomorrow like irrespective actually of whether trump wins or biden wins i think brad's right we're to basically get you know nothing much is going to happen at that level but what do we do at the like on main street like what are we doing to close the gap between folks so that you know this entire cohort like literally i don't care whether biden wins by

the popular vote by five million or seven million you're talking about tens of millions of people bill gurley is now on the line uh another one of our best i guess these bill thanks for joining us you heard the question being teed up here this is neck and neck this is not something anybody at least pollsters came anywhere close to predicting and chamat's question i think is a really valid one who is got a greater chance of bringing the country back together and maybe leading from the middle and maybe healing this wound because this has been the worst four years i believe in any of our lifetimes in terms of the anxiety and the anger between people who used to

be able to what a loaded question totally well i want to know bill's opinion because by the way bill gurley is the best coach jason jason is the best venture capitalist in the world phil stop hijacking our [ __ ] broadcast go ahead girlie so thanks for having me on i you know i think you guys have done a really good job of breaking down why people have mis-estimated this thing there was a you know there's such a royal urban split there was a there was a really good new york times daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed uh rural democrats in in pennsylvania that had switched to trump and and all the voices they echoed were very similar to what brad walked through with his mother and so i do think there's a a true lack of empathy for the the center states and the rural areas from the

coastal elites and i'd say part of breaking any of it down would be somehow trying to separate that i think a bigger issue that has really been on my mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten and i i've i've come to believe that the way you can probably just ruin your mind the most is to just join a tribe and quit thinking about things and the number of people i know on both sides that have run off to their tribe is shocking to me and and it's just not a way to go about being smart because you know and and if you anyone that makes fun of a you know a religion that's

extreme or something it's all the same [ __ ] like you're just believing dogma for the sake of it so i one of the things that i worry about about a trump victory is is just very tactically in my life and maybe it's part of living in california but a whole bunch of people and things that i want to get solved become more manic if he wins like my kids school and the companies that i work with and and covert quite frankly i i think that we can't get past covet with trump because the tdsers are so convinced that it has to be problematic and it's just you know so i don't i actually i don't know the exact path to solve it but i i do worry about

just being in a world where everyone hates each other and it just doesn't seem solvable that way well th this is why i think you know uh this this scenario which uh we've called the soft landing where let's say you had a biden victory by two electoral votes the republicans hold on to the senate um i think the radical left gets a big um i'd say rebuke um or a shock and we have basically divided government in washington but it takes the whole temperature down because you know trump gets replaced by biden but you've kind of got you know basically joe and his old pal metro and a power sharing arrangement in washington it could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years you know temperature would go down there'd be kind of this you know healing process if you will um but you know there wouldn't be a whole lot of new

sort of legislation that we have to worry about i think we would get what we want which is the ability to ignore washington for four years yeah but we wouldn't get a solution to really what ails us which is the fact that there's all these people that just feel completely shut out and i that really bothers me at some very basic level which is like i just think like you know i fought my family my parents just escaped some third world [ __ ] [ __ ] to go to canada and you know canada gave us a lot but it still wasn't enough for me i crawled and scratched to get into the united states things work out but i don't feel like i have a right to all of a sudden um i don't know just like look down on other people or make people feel like [ __ ] or not allowed so you

actually think chamoth that biden is going to do that or do you think bine's going to be no but jason i think middle ground no who who no with the republicans in the senate what i'm saying is independent of what happens we're going to have basically we're going to have a photo finish and what i think what brad said is right the the fact that we're in a photo finish means that there are a lot of people in pain and i think we have a responsibility to get our heads out of our asses and stop this sanctimonious holier-than-thou [ __ ] i agree with brad when he says that it really hits the nerve with me because i feel like there are a lot of people we work with them all it's rife within the tech culture and all these [ __ ] bags think they know what they're talking about all the time and we're doing a disservice to so many americans and we need to wake up and

that's what bothers me the idea that there are so many people who feel like they're just getting so really bothers me that bothers me so i i i can ignore trump i'll ignore his [ __ ] because honestly he's done nothing he will do nothing he is a complete [ __ ] void um but whether it's trump or biden in a 270 268 election the fact that so many people still use this guy as a vessel um i don't know that makes that makes me more upset i think some people i think a lot everyone thinks has some degree of empathy to the problem i think there are different points of view on the solution which is where this stuff gets realized the one point of view is we should have less government

involved in our lives and our businesses and the other point of view is we should have more support and help from the government and that's where things diverge very quickly it doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics is necessarily ignoring what you're highlighting and i don't think anyone in america does from the rich to the poor to the left to the right yeah i think the solutions are miscast because for example like what are we supposed to do like with our higher educational institutions the people that are churning out all these folks that are meant to go and collaborate and find middle ground i mean i clearly like all of this says our educational facilities are completely failing from grade school all the way through to high school um community college college grad school it's all just a contrived piece of [ __ ] right we are completely putting out one in two people

for failure okay so that much is clear so i don't see politicians fixing that on either side of the aisle what i mean honestly what are we supposed to do well i mean i might just might i just suggest that um two things um number one i think in these results that you see there's a you know there is extraordinary frustration right with this with the state of affairs the fact that trump in the middle of covid after four years of torturous anxiety-inducing tweets could even be in a neck-to-neck race to win this election tells you right how devastatingly bad people feel about how how they're being treated i think that

you know i said recently i mean we have to redraft the social contract this idea we've been living under a social contract drafted post-world war ii um that you know it's pre-technology revolution we have a concentration of wealth today in the world and in this country like we've never seen and we have uh republicans that are set in their ways who say you know no no no universal health care you know no reform of the education system you have democrats who are demanding that you have universal basic income i think you have to have um pragmatic smart younger politics i mean the fact that we have two old white men

i mean neither of these folks is on top of their game i mean neither of these like this is i mean you could you compare biden to pete budage i mean buddha judge is buddha jizz walks into the lion's den of fox tv and tames the lion every night every night right let's get pete bootages solving some of these problems let's get some younger ideas on the republican side solving these problems but we're going to have to re-architect architect that social contract no doubt about it um you know and i i think the second thing is that you know to me this is going to be a wake-up call to the nominating processes in both parties but but let's be clear mike pence right has

his road map um you know for you know how to win the election indiana governor right he's going to tap into the same fears that trump tapped into i mean these fears aren't going away right the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase not decrease we see it every day out here and so i think you're going to have to have you know the democratic party who nominates people and puts people you know forward who can you know who can tap into this brad who do you like if it wasn't biden who would you like buddha judge he's a south this was the you know an openly gay mayor of my hometown in indiana you think he can sell right who fought who fought in afghanistan

and who goes on fox news every damn night right and has a conversation that leaves republicans saying oh that guy's pretty smart right yeah i i agree that he's a tremendous political talent do you think that he's pragmatic enough brad or he he would he would end up veering more towards uh you know sort of like politically correct leftist socialist agenda and then have the same result i think that there is a there's been a doctrine in the in the democratic party that to win the primary you gotta veer to the left right you got to contend with bernie you got to

contend with elizabeth warren but ultimately that's a losing strategy in in the election and so i think you're going to have the emergence of a middle of the country governor middle of the country mayor somebody like pete um who's gonna run you know on a smart younger pragmatic democratic ticket um i think that's a winning formula i mean i think that's the clinton formula um you know obama was a bit of an anomaly but the clinton formula was a conservative pragmatic form of of uh democratic party leadership i mean i suspect that in the next

three or four days i'm going to get a call from the democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me and my message to them is you guys can go [ __ ] yourselves until you figure this out because to your point brad it is absolutely shameful that we're in no no i'm serious that we are in i know you are that's what i love well but chamoth i mean what you should tell them to do is go form a dlc remember the demo democrat leadership committee that bill clinton formed so remember what what bill clinton did you know when he won in 92 we had three straight republican presidential terms ronald reagan incredibly successful president then his successor basically reagan wanted bush won a third term for reagan but he was a weak

candidate and clinton came in there what did he do he triangulated he tacked toward the center um and you know he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan legislation david david david let me make this even more blunt okay um my million bucks will grow to 10 million dollars a per election to 50 million dollars per election as i get older okay so if these [ __ ] want a single goddamn dollar for me what i want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on so to your point before you fix it you need to be honest and identify the problem well i mean i i think that i think it's it's because that the issue that trump ran against was that joe biden was a trojan horse for radical for a radical left that really owns the democratic

party right now that's what he ran against bill gurley what do you think the issues are that if we were going to try to have a great reconciliation between these two parties between middle america and the coastal elites where you have spent you know large swaths of your life i think perhaps you're the only person here who has lived in both places middle of america he's from indiana okay but i trust your judgment on these issues what what does the what does the what are the coasts need to understand about the people who believe who when who live between the coasts and what they're trying to express to us and how can we as coastal uh occupants and citizens do to kind of bridge this gap other than just moving to austin and

getting the hell out of california which is devolving which is what i feel like doing at this point well dude i have two comments on this one you know having having listened to you know as much as i can on on all the of the the voter conversations including this call um i'm not 100 sure that that these people feel unrepresented i think a lot of them want to be left alone and so part part of what's being engineered or what they fear is being engineered is someone sitting in a city with views that are very different than them telling them that this is the world they have to live by and i think the lockdown fit in with that but a lot of other things too that the the daily podcast i mentioned you know there was this guy just

saying what is what does nancy pelosi know about what i want in my day-to-day life you know and so there is a notion of being left alone brad's story about his mom was like hey we're fine here like don't don't bother me and so there's a there's a difference between trying to solve a problem for them and being empathetic to their point of view and and i would say um having spent a lot of time in these areas and being a slow talker and sometimes uh made fun of for that there is a there's unquestionably a uh a type of social bias against rural americans in in urban cities there's just no doubt it's it's the only joke you're allowed to tell without getting

rebuked in other words we can make fun of the rednecks and we can oh absolutely all day long all day long we can we can do a bill gurley impersonation or no they're either they're either idiots well i mean if we and this is the thing that i don't understand when i grew up and i'm curious other people's opinions here and i'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this it feels like the lessons i was taught in the 70s and 80s which were america is strong because we're a melting pot we take the best of all the cultures and we try to make our own out of it and that you get to make choices for your life and in your city town and state that don't have to be the same as the ones we make in new york so if you want to have a handgun and you want to put it on your waistband in texas or wherever and in new york city we don't want to have handguns in the city

because it's a little bit more crowded we can we can have that difference and we can co-exist and i don't know when we lost this script that what makes america great is the differences and that people living in different parts of a very large diverse country can have different opinions about you know abortion and and what month abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning of a gun or you know how tall a building can be built when did that get taken off the table and who took it off the table you know who took it off the table was these hysterical libs the and i think the hysterical as much as this far right trump you know uh you know flags on pickup trucks

surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to watch i i have equal disdain for hysterical libs trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch that they can't have a gun when they've never even been to a goddamn ranch and they've never had to use a gun to protect their family because that a cop coming to your ranch is going to take 45 minutes and that's what america needs to get back to is respecting each other's different lifestyles whether you're an atheist or you're devoutly catholic viva la different roles let people live their goddamn lives i think it's an astute point bill j cal can we run down california next yeah i'm very curious how prop 22 is doing

jesus the god damn people are allowed bill can you tell everyone what prop 22 is and why yeah please why why yeah but and and and and it would transition to a whole bunch of conversations about politics that i i feel more passionate about than who gets elected which is if you know in order to solve the problems that everyone's upset about with an inequality and whatnot i think you have to have massive innovation and you have to have job growth and i don't know of any waves in history where you get a whole bunch of improvement in in standard living for broad swaths of a population

without being positively aligned with job growth and what the where i'm going with this is my biggest concern about washington i used to say the main reasons silicon valley works is because it's so [ __ ] far away from dc um and it's because regulation is the friend of the incumbent and it's the it's the opposite of innovation it locks in things and it's very resistant to change and um matt ridley's new book how innovation works goes through this over a very very long period of time it's it's fantastic and he talks about why europe's gotten stuck in like the top 50

market cap companies in europe there's no new entrant in 30 years or something like that um because of this anyway prop 22 is a california proposition reaction to a law that was put on the california books called ab5 to the best of my knowledge and this is consistent with the editorial groups at the l.a times the san francisco chronicle and the san diego tribune is that it was written entirely by a union the seiu who has no representation over over drivers or gig workers whatsoever they represent service industry workers um and they would like to represent uber drivers but they don't today and i i think i think about this like a bunch of

people living in nevada trying to pass a law for the citizens of california unfortunately because of regulatory capture which which i think is unfortunate on both sides of the aisle the union's able through a woman named lorena gonzalez is able to get the state to pass a law that that basically targeted gig workers which was this new job type that has all these fantastic benefits anyway um immediately thereafter there were several industries were like oh we don't want this for us so them and their unions and constituents started calling on sacramento with lorena gonzalez

and and and carving them out one by one so by the by the time ab5 was set to be put in action there were over 100 industries that have been carved out because it was a stupid law written just to target a single industry and it was written with political donor dollars now in a moment that i would say is completely outside of my realm of what i expected um all of the newspaper all the editorial boards for all of the major newspapers in california came to the conclusion that this was a bad law that this was crony capitalism written with donor dollars and they all got behind prop 22

which is because we have this ballot initiative in california is a way for the voters to tell sacramento that they're full of [ __ ] and that looks like what's happening right now sorry for the long answer no no it's it's a great answer and what what's particularly infuriating about this and listen you and i are both um you know investors in companies impacted by this is that it's there's a group of people who've been exempted from this and the list of people exempted all seem to be just slightly more powerful and slightly better paid um sales people

uh fishermen psychologists uh surgeons dentists engineers architects lawyers etc and if this had passed or if it still does pass because we're only at 15 or 20 percent of people have been counted so far but it's looking like prop 22 will pass well in one of the businesses i run inside.com we had to uh tell all of the freelancers we were hiring who are writers that they would lose their gig work with us because they can only write five stories a year or ten stories a year and vox one of the big publishing companies which is incredibly left leaning as left as it gets

they stopped hiring people in california and they fired and laid off all their california freelance writers nick and what this does to people who are doing gig economy 70 of them are working part-time nick can you go back to uh can you i need to switch topics nick can you go to georgia please for a second uh a little little late-breaking data uh over 400 000 votes outstanding in atlanta and the suburbs um how close oh my god it's a statistical dead heat if you add back in 400 000 for all by now i'm just saying that's not where it's going to be but uh yeah yeah i mean atlanta atlanta should go 70 percent by oh sure it will yeah maybe 75 80 but i guess he'd have to be 100 to zero instead catch up uh if

i'm being that right anyone anyone here cynical enough to think that there's some operative in these states holding these on purpose so that they can be the center of importance tomorrow no i just think it's it's almost midnight on the east coast and people are tired and they're gonna go home and uh have a [ __ ] shower and a shave and uh start again tomorrow that's the reason gurley is so successful he always girly always knows how to diagnose the individual and he motivations diagnose the [ __ ] out of it by just thinking about what one guy's motive is and then he's figured the whole thing out he makes a billion dollars overnight master of self-interest bill gurley here's the truth here's what it comes down to so trump needs to win two out of four of these states nevada pennsylvania wisconsin or michigan and um he's got to win two of those four so it's got to be probably pennsylvania and michigan or

pennsylvania and wisconsin but he's got to win if he loses nevada he needs to win two out of those three uh rust belt states or he wins nevada plus like a pennsylvania yeah this is gonna be this is gonna be really michigan's gonna go to trump this is going to come down to pennsylvania um and really to the to the philly suburbs i was reading on twitter uh election official in michigan says don't expect results before friday that's crazy well and by the way i mean so so but let's just think for a second how extraordinary it is that trump looks like he might win michigan i mean just to go back to the you know the theory of the of the case that we

were laying out earlier um about how china about how trump picked up this this china trade issue four years ago and and and this this time he combined it with the lockdown issue um i mean it's really amazing that that state is leaning trump right now michigan michigan was two issues it was uh you know working class democrats feeling like trump's standing up for them with respect to china and it was locked down and lockdown wasn't it was an overwhelming issue uh you know for my for my friends and my folks in michigan for sure can we go back to prop 22 for a second jason because i think that this is um you know this is a uh an issue of extreme

importance you know one of the things that bill didn't say is you know we're talking earlier chamath brought up you know what's the third way you know we we we've we've built a social contract on the back of kind of w-2 tight employment for the better part of the last 70 years we now have a massive part of the economy this gig and it's not just this is all freelancers this is all part-time workers and postcovid this is just a massive portion of the economy and the idea that we're going to tie all benefits to w-2 it's just totally asinine it's got to be re-architected

and what prop 22 does is say it's ic plus it's independent contractor plus benefits right it's this idea that we don't have to tie benefits to w-2 employment right so the nonsensical no argument against prop 22 that this was an abandonment of the employee is just that it combines flexibility with benefits and you know from my perspective you're gonna see if prop 22 passes which i think it will tonight it's going to be the architecture that new york and many other states follow they're certainly not going to follow the disastrous ab5 example um but we also know that it's not sufficient just to have

uh a bunch of workers with with zero healthcare and you know and so i think that this is a uh you know hats off to doordash instacart you know uber and lyft trying to trying to design something that is a middle way and you know chamath if we don't have politicians designing a middle way right then we need leadership out of the business community design in a middle way well that so you just said something so so profound and i was gonna i would like to build on that i think what california shows is that um if you have a completely democratic up and down ticket

and it veers too far to this coastal naval gazing socialist nanny state then it requires money and companies to basically level the playing field because the republicans can't do it and it's possible to fight back and what's interesting to me is nobody ever talks about or or maybe they do and i don't just don't hear it about how the equivalent happens on the right um it'd be interesting to know if you guys know of any states where there's just republican up and down the ticket and they just veer into such a detached laissez faire where the whole state needs to get corrected by for-profit organizations but it's it seems like we're setting up for democrats

versus companies and people moving to republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone well you know it's a sensible set of outcomes in california right i mean do you guys not agree that the uh the the yes on prop 22 and saks it looks like your commercial property tax proposition that zuck helped fund may not pass it's oh thank us we don't know it's a point one percent differential yes which i don't know i agree it's look the california ballot initiatives are looking really good right now it gives me a lot of hope it gives me a lot of hope about the state because the most anti-economic the most let's put a business on friendly ballot initiatives looks like they're going down starting you know with the win on prop 22 that's huge but then prop 15

you know we talked about that on a former um episode of the all-in pod this was chipping away at prop 13 which is the great shield of the middle class in terms of property taxes i'm not saying you couldn't get a better tax regime that would tax commercial property fair market value but you sure wouldn't want to give that card away without demanding some structural reform in exchange for it which is why i thought it was just so stupid for you know tech billionaires to be funding you know these these ballot initiatives for higher taxes you know this is definitely looking like like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome where a lot of folks who were concerned about california swinging all the way left and chasing uh business and enterprise out of the state

um you know maybe kind of getting reeled in and i think it gives some hope and gives some pause uh to a lot of folks who are trying to build businesses in california to recognize that you know hey there there is a thoughtful populace here um totally agree and this is this is a great outcome tonight i feel i i personally feel really good about i i i agree if this sticks it it's um it it is because the the big the big issue with california right now is that we've got you know people we've got net migration out of the state because it's just so hard uh for for the middle class to live here and to build businesses here i hope what we hear you know if if we're fortunate enough for prop 22 to pass i hear we i hope we see a coalition among these companies come together and really promote this as a national architecture

for a third way for independent contractors free agents across the country uh to have a living wage and benefits it's totally detached from w2 employment i really do believe um a bunch of people on this call will were helpful to an uh an effort i launched around the board challenge you know it's high time for the social consciousness of corporate america to take the leadership position and because it's not coming out of washington and there's so many issues that the solution lies among us and we got to stop spending our election nights wondering when somebody's going to deliver us from ourselves we got to start delivering ourselves i think it's a very how do you think you resolve that union i mean like you know girlies girl are you still with

us yes how do you resolve things with the unions after this i mean if prop 22 passes is there a uh coming to the middle ground with unions and are unions always just a kind of directional vector you know they're always like a force on the system they're not an absolute or objective right they're uh they're just always pushing in one direction i mean what ends up happening with the resolution with unions or is it just a constant back and forth to try and manage the impact they'll have on policy politics tax free market etc so from from my point of view the if you if you think about citizens united which a lot of people are upset about i think rightfully so uh because dc is so money oriented like it's coin operated and a lot of people have vivid awareness of it being

coin operated on the right through corporations this is why the most heavily regulated industries are the hardest to break into hardest to innovate against what what i think they missed is how much of its right is is his regulatory capture on the left and the difference that a union has versus a company is it's a natural monopoly and so it actually has more power to write regulation than a company does um but and it's going to be around every single election cycle so if you listen to them you know you get what you want and the you know people have pointed out that the um

the gentleman or he's not a gentleman the the individual that that that killed george floyd probably wouldn't have been on the force if it weren't for the union protecting him because of the stuff he had done before but and this goes back to the red and blue and blindness of just being dogmatic to your party most of the people i know that are heavily uh prescribed to the to the democratic tribe refuse to acknowledge that one of the big problems in police reform comes from the unions and and you can't see those things unless you take yourself out of that single place um i will tell you the california situation i think is deeper than than

maybe what brad talked about there the the rule the law that's causing more companies to leave from my perspective than ab5 is something called paga which was passed about 25 years ago but has finally reached momentum where it's causing problems for companies and this was a law passed by um litigators with donor dollars in sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a case on behalf of the state against the company and so they they're basically like local sheriffs just running around bringing claims and of course they'll settle every time the the the supposed

victims are getting about 10 percent on average on packet claims and once your company's been shook down on three or four packet claims by a lawyer who's only going to give 10 cents on the dollar to these people that used to work for you you finally just throw up your hands and say you know i don't need to hire someone here i hire someone somewhere else costs twice as much to hire someone here and so i i do worry that if any state or country wants to move forward in in our new economy they can't just be completely anti-business anti-tech um that i have a strong point of view on that but like it won't work you're gonna grind to a halt hey jay jason can we go back to the senate has anybody prepared to i'm getting a read from my analysts

who are live blogging to me that the senate is almost certain to go republican at this point with iowa maine and north carolina going republican that would do it and michigan and montana both in real danger for democrats but even if they lost both of those um you're going to have 51.49 to republicans in the senate hey brad why are markets trading down a bit right now from where they were um i still have it at uh you know nasdaq 280. so i'm not i'm not prepared to call that down i just think that's what they did yeah it's bouncing and both and bovada i guess which is the um

nevada just came back up they stopped taking action now they've got trump uh minus 150 is that how you say it and joe biden plus 115 so to if you put a hundred dollars on joe biden you win 15 is that right and if you oh you're 100 you win 115. you win 115. right you probably win 15 115 is very close jason and donald trump if you were to put a hundred dollars in you make 150. is that right phil hellmuth you definitely know a 150 to 100. exactly got it okay i think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost you know i'm certainly going to uh live to regret this but it appears at this point that the market's going to be up tomorrow

almost either way and if you look at what the market was saying last week uh you know just yet another surprise um the market is celebrating the fact that this is a close election um but you know if it's a uh if it's a contested transfer of power and we have a you know there's there's certainly a lot of room for uncertainty uncertainty to still be injected into this but it likes the fact that we whether it's biden or trump uh who pulls out the presidency is certainly liking the fact that it's going to be a close election right now just to give people an indication fox news has joe

biden at 227 electoral votes and trump at 204 the new york times is at 213 and 136 for trump the senate on the new york times is 44 dems 45 republicans and i don't know how we're supposed to tr who we're supposed to trust here there's a senate the senate on fox news is 45 democrat 44 republican so this is a dead heat which i think could lead us towards the great reconciliation which is if trump comes out of office biden becomes the elder statesman biden reaches across the aisle we have a massive balance of power in the senate everybody's forced to work together

in order to get anything done am i correct in my reading of this as a non-political expert well what you're describing is the great gerontocracy we'll have 78 year old biden negotiating 79 year old mcconnell and schumer is what 74 75. pelosi's over 80. cindy hoyer her deputy is over 80. so who do we have in the death pool because two or three of those are dying in the next four years oh so i don't mean to make it dark but i mean just looking at mcconnell and his bruised hands and lips and everything uh something's eating him alive i'm not exactly sure what it is but uh that's a bad bad scene yeah is that on the betting markets phil that's not on the betting markets

and by the way the other direction you're talking about trump who's 74 negotiating i mean you know it's it's we've got to get younger in our political leadership across the board uh it's there it's ridiculous who who had a better chance of beating trump would bernie elizabeth warren or booty judge would one of those three if you had to pick one of those three and i think it's one of those reads or you could pick your other which one would have performed better brad you said i was brad on mayor pete for sure i'm with brad on that one yeah so bill you believe mayor pete would have had a better performance he would have been more inspiring he would have been more energy i i

think that there is a lot of people that want what brad talked about which is someone who's who's rational and calm and and centered and i also think that if you look at the history of of presidential campaigns um most americans favor an outsider and i i attribute that to personally to them feeling like washington's on the hook and been bought and you know biden would be an outlier for a lifetime senator there was a lot there was a lot of excitement around obama there was a lot of excitement about reagan who came you know from hollywood there was a lot of excitement about clinton so you know a lot of governors a lot of a lot of first-time senators is what you

tend to see and so pete fit that mold why some youth and some charisma would be nice uh and and david of the two davids and michael who do you think would have put up the best fight because tonight if biden does win and it's feeling maybe like that it's going to happen so it's clearly a jump ball here it's any it's coming down to the last 30 sec last minute of the game if biden does lose who would have been the candidate that would have beaten trump if there was another one who would have had the next best chance david's well biden's still looking pretty good right now so i don't know that there i don't know that there was somebody better but i do agree

that i always was most impressed with buddha judge out of the candidates in the sense that i thought he was the most articulate i thought he was the best debater i thought he was the best on tv and he knew how to reach for the center and he had the kind of obama thing of having identity politics working for him but without making a big deal out of it um and um and so yeah i mean what you mean by that mr sachs well he's he's gay he'd be the first gay president but he's not making that an explicit part of the reason to vote for him and but it would have been a first and his voters would know that but he doesn't want to you know he doesn't want to run on the idea of identity politics and so so he's not leading with that he's not leading with it i think that's a smart way to play it it's you know obama was obviously being an

incredibly important first but he didn't lead with that as the reason why you should vote for him um so to a certain extent hillary did lead with that hillary was going to be there i'm with her you know her was the slogan yeah and i think a lot of people did want to make that first but i think you have those votes you need to make the case to everybody else so yeah i think he he's a great political athlete and um you know someone's got probably a bright future in the democratic party i'm seeing some people on twitter say that biden's now becoming the favorite but i just checked betfair it's uh basically 1.1 it's very close now kind of crazy this is going to come down to one

this is going to come down to pennsylvania and michigan and it's going to take days to do those counts and we're probably going to end up in the courts who would have done a better job here look i mean the market already voted right it voted for for biden he is the the leading candidate i don't know if anyone else would have outperformed biden at this point i think you know the next in line was a very different ideology and that's bernie and um you know bernie really is the contrast to um you know the points that we were making earlier you either think that the way forward is to have the government leave me alone or to wrap me up in a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet and bernie sanders is the you know the guy in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines are all going to be free if you elect me

um and that's a broadly you know like everyone votes for that guy and let me uh let me ask you a question brad that i build off of david i just think the mayor pete by the way let me just say i think mayor pete is a great articulate thoughtful guy and he's certainly appealing to those of us who want to have a thoughtful well-articulated response to the problems we're facing but i think that there is a guttural kind of you know innate um drive that folks want they either want free [ __ ] or they want to be left alone and you know you you're going to need to appeal to one of those two motives brad how would you have voted had your choice been and i'm going to go around the horn on this so everybody gets a chance to think about it except really brad brad if you had the choice yep elizabeth warren slash bernie hardcore socialist let's go with bernie since i think he's even more on the socialist side or trump could you have conceived

of voting for trump over bernie or would you have voted actually voted for bernie sanders take your time and you can think out loud when you answer no i mean i i have to say that um you know i have a nine and 12 year old boy boys and um the conversation we had is it's not just about what you stand for it's about how you stand for it character it's character and i just couldn't tolerate uh trump's character either in my own life my own level of anxiety or or standing for that you know and and telling my boys that that's a okay way to lead and so for me i was willing to vote against my own interests and taking comfort in the fact that four

years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of uh of of the country um but to send a signal that you know how you lead matters in this country and uh a rejection of this form of leadership yeah but brad if you didn't think that bernie sanders policies would actually i mean if you thought they would actually pass everything you wanted to do you couldn't conceive that of voting for trump yeah i mean you know again like i would just say that i would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in moving that that bernie would not have been you know that when weighing those two evils right that you know again for me socialism

versus trump are your twitter i can i can tolerate the mean-spiritedness perhaps myself um but you know like i'm trying to you know i think it is important that we we say that like this is not what we stand for this is not a an honorable way to lead and and certainly when it comes to sitting around the dinner table every night and talking to them about the way i expect them to behave in their form of leadership you know that that mean-spiritedness just didn't work for me would anybody else like to answer that question or is it just well i'm not going to disagree with any of that but i would just like to point out i'd like to ask a question actually which is if if this president was so bad that he had to be impeached why wasn't that a campaign issue

i don't remember being mentioned once by biden that trump was impeached you would think that impeaching the president would be something you'd want to make a major campaign issue so i just think this idea that trump is the only one who's dishonest and unethical um you know that whole russian insane hoax that they put us through for years they put this whole country through before the guy even took office they were trying to delegitimize his election i mean come on you can't just look at trump's behavior which i agree is outrageous and not look at the other side and say they're doing the same thing and this is like a they're they're sort of like co-equal

partners in this chaos that's been uh created david let's suppose they're co-founders in chaos let's be candid all these politicians that we've had to live with in our lifetime are grifters we know that and their kids are grifters putting that aside do you think there is any chance that the russians have not bought an inordinate amount of apartments from donald trump at extraordinary prices are you just making that up or i mean i'm just going with my gut right here yeah qed case in point because you feel it you can now make an accusation that the president has received bribes from the russians i mean come on well we know and actually i i want to i want to bring up the election we all know putin interfered with the election

and we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate okay i i i honestly unless you don't trust the cia unless you don't trust the fbi unless you don't trust our agents really i mean you believe you're still holding the russians every election we've ever had jason we have bob mueller with a team of like 18 like pitbull democratic prosecutors and 50 specialists what happened to matthew fbi agents let me finish who investigated for two years and they couldn't find any collusion i mean and you're still hanging on to this this insane fallacy and you're wondering why the american people are turning against why they're willing to vote for trump again come on can't you see the insanity of the other side well i mean i did see manafort go to jail and

pay a 25 30 million dollar fine and i did see that trump's kids took the meeting with the russians to try to set up a secret back channel so while they might not have been smart enough or effective enough to actually collude there certainly was a lot of graph going on this is this is this is on the level if not worse than the whole hunter biden hard drive story which i thought was 100 which i thought was a ridiculous story an attempt to smear up biden come on for you to lay this integrity issue on trump alone which i agree there's some truth there and not lay it on his democratic inquisitors in the senate who put in the house who put us through this impeachment hooks for two years come on we're starting to sound a little like am radio let's get it we did

go there no sax is a free thinker i like this he's a free thinker but it's like you guys but we're but this word impeachment this entire campaign all sacks is saying is own both sides of this uh can you say the word impeachment impeachment i just said okay there we go i was wondering what happened to that word you know normally no i know nick can you please throw georgia back on the map please are you guys seeing this that that now they're tipping georgia back to uh biden who is this is insane where well they're also saying that arizona may have been prematurely called for biden so arizona may be back in play for trump that was really weird that they called arizona so early wasn't it and only fox only fox has done it i think yeah nick where do you have how do you have georgia

reporting right now how much is in right now uh yeah click on georgia just for a second we have 81 percent yeah the times had it flip on at 9 13 p.m i have a screenshot which shows biden plus four and then north carolina is now just trump plus 1.1 michael well in arizona when they show that everybody's reporting it's precincts reporting right it doesn't show uh mail-ins or by precinct or mail-ins or at the state level well a precinct will have both mail-ins and uh election day votes and when they and when they say 81 of precincts reporting that doesn't mean that 81

of precincts are finished reporting it's a very misleading uh number because what it means that 81 percent of precincts have reported what they have but it doesn't mean they're finished counting necessarily right so you know atlanta is probably the precincts in atlanta have probably reported some vote in fact we we see that when we click on it but there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote in georgia there could be outstanding vote uh in some precincts in north carolina as well and they at this point once you get into the 95 and above range they do tend to be uh urban centers that are

that obviously have a lot more vote to count it gets late at night they go home uh they finish in the morning or three days later if you go zoom in on arizona please 76 percent of voting reporting i mean how is this possible 54 basically i don't know but in all those things you're going to have the intensity you had around hanging chads in dade county you're just gonna have like massive tension and drama around counting each of these last things yeah we're gonna have five floridas you knew 2020 would do this on the way out the door yeah so so arizona they counted all the absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet

so you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in-person because trump's going to do better with you know election day ballots i agree it's pretty premature well it depends on whether they're considering phoenix is part of that right okay why is nevada only reporting one percent yeah local news there are now groups of people gathering at oakland city hall so they they go there when like what night aren't they riding in oakland i mean come on in berkeley they smashed a pizzeria window they do it every other week hey hey guys i wanna i wanna just discuss an idea i have that might be a little bit cheeky but since jkl and i were getting into it before i kind of wanna i want to talk about it a little bit um okay let's do it which is i i've called the trump derangement score um which is if you go to twitter that yeah trump derangement

score which is if you go to twitter and search trump from your username it'll show you how many tweets you've you've published that you've posted that mention the word trump and um so i did this before the show to see which bestie had tweeted the most and see what the score was and my sense is like if your your score is like zero to ten you haven't really paid a lot of attention to trump it's probably like very healthy and then if you're in like the 10 to 30 range you're paying a little bit more attention but this could be a normal interesting here it comes here

hold on if you're in like the 30 to 50 range i think you pretty much are infected there's two strains there's kind of the magus strain and then there's the resistance strain but clearly you've tested positive for trump derangement syndrome and then i would say there's kind of like an advanced level where um you can't even count how many tweets there are you've got to like scroll and like you keep scrolling and you can't even get to the bottom and that's that's like a level of infection where you need to immediately quarantine yourself and um so anyway i i i did this and uh anyway the winner actually was freeberg freeburg only had he had a score of one he literally only had one tweet mentioning trump for the last four years i

only had eight but in fairness five of them were posted yesterday to advertise this this pod so um my one was during this podcast by the way yeah jamaat at 20. i had 12. you had about 20 about 20 yeah and then jkl you you were in scrolling territory i couldn't even i couldn't even count i gave up well i i feel for you i really feel for you that you're hurting over this election like you know i don't like i'm not trying to make fun of you or see you hey guys guys another just another quick update here that um uh dekalb county fulton county and cobb county in georgia

are pro-democrat they're huge uh and they're at 31 58 and 70 and if you play these out there's somewhere between 400 and 500 000 uh potential incremental votes for biden which would eke out georgia for biden potentially according to just this last just looking at fox news i think that they're trolling the libs because they have trump at 210 and they have joe biden at 237 uh the the new york times has let me just make sure i'm refreshing here and have the latest data 213 to 145. so fox is aggressively calling electoral votes at a level that the new york times is is far behind like behind by 50 at least a hundred

what what is the explanation of this wow uh i this is i mean this is that's um msnbc 205 electoral votes for joe biden which uh nbc has been the most conservative overall what happens if it's tied it can tie right we still have that scenario on the table 269 269 uh uh yeah there's probably a way to to get there uh let's see well interestingly uh biden did not get that one district in omaha nebraska that he had targeted that obama won his first time that would give you one electoral vote in in nebraska nebraska and maine both you get you get uh two for winning the state and you get one for each of the congressional districts so while while biden was not going to play in overall in nebraska he had a shot at omaha

and that 270 268 scenario we talked about earlier could have potentially been 269 269 if that omaha district was in play but the polling really missed michael just to jump in uh bg girl girly's gotta hop off boys say bye girl thanks for having me i appreciate it speaking of bill gurley uh how about texas i mean i think i think texas is definitely going to be republican right michael yeah that one's trending far away from biden he looks like he's down about 500 thousand how many points is that no one's called that yet right it's bizarre that florida and texas are still listed as uh uh right so that could explain what jkl's looking at between the disparity and yeah i don't blame fox if

if fox called texas i don't blame them but i think arizona yeah that might that might that would explain your difference jacob texas and florida yeah fox yeah that's 60 67 votes right there yeah that explains it yeah so the new york times has not called florida or texas the new york times had florida at 98 percent i think it's like 99.59 or something right if you add uh 38 for texas 29 for florida you're 67 67 until the 145 puts you at 212. and joe biden at 2 13. which was one point difference ralph warnock and kelly loffler and a runoff for the senate seat in georgia that's just incredible i mean hey guys a comment and then a question uh looks like

the washington post is projecting that california approved prop 22. yeah um so there is a uh that's the first one is that due to uber speaking right now i think right do we have to try is not speaking yet but he's he's getting applied to speak the implied volatility on uber stock at the close today was 14 but by the way every ballot initiative in san francisco the city level ballot initiatives passed one of them the prop h was good all the rest were a disaster so stanford so the the state-level ballot initiatives were pretty good news for california but san francisco okay not much so you know in in terms of what we were talking about earlier about creating

a more busi business friendly environment unfortunately what happened in san francisco i think california as a whole is positive with prop 22 prop 15 failing um but every single crazy ballot initiative in san francisco pass so it's just getting crazier and i don't know if you did this in your household but with my ten-year-old brad i went through my wife and i jade we we went through each of the uh ballot initiatives as many as we could we listened to little encapsulations of what they were and we talked about the stem cell one and i just thought why is california which is losing all of these businesses adding to the tax burden stem cell research and why isn't that being done by the private sector if there is a huge prize

to be had with stem cell why would we have california send billions of dollars on this when we're losing all the this government i'm wondering uh you know how how people thought about something like that like the stem cell did you vote for that david to continue to have california flip the bill for stuff by the way just before you answer david i took the pages of the ballot initiative and i use them to keep my white truffles from developing humidity i mean basically the truth of the matter jason is that when when i don't understand a ballot initiative i just vote against it and i didn't really understand that the stem cell balance initiative or why even why if that was a spending priority why it couldn't just be handled by the state you know the legislature i didn't understand why that needed to be a ballot initiative so you

know i feel like ballot initiative like i'll support them when this in the state legislature does something wrong like 202 is a perfect example where you know lorraine or whatever the had this tremendous amount of power passed this crazy ab5 and the people had to overrule that um so i feel like that's where like these balances make sense is when you want to overrule the legislature but you know it's kind of crazy for to be passing these laws directly when you know we don't know that much about them concur i mean the founders had this vision of representative democracy not direct democracy and that's generally a good idea so jason i don't know you have to kind of like what director the results that direct democracy has produced tonight the initiatives may be saving us from ourselves since we don't have in this state unfortunately a viable republican party

to represent us uh this the initiatives may be our last line of defense well i think i think you're right in terms of overruling things but like in in san francisco you know every single about initiative path and i think most of them are well there's no saving san francisco we all knew that well i don't like hearing that come to l.a baby we got a few more years at least um what is the consensus viewer seems to be the markets are still up nasdaq futures up 280 still what what causes us to wake up tomorrow or the next day and have the futures down three four five hundred bits there's there's one thing and so far it hasn't happened and if we avoid it we're going to fade a really big out here um which is trump declares victory right now

i think that is the disaster scenario because i think biden's gonna get up there he's not going to say much of anything he'll be very kind of down the middle you know kind of let's take a wait and see approach we're waiting until tomorrow there's a lot to go grind it out blah blah blah but if trump comes out and says we won we're done let's move on it's going to be uh panic because look i mean he's you can't certify georgia apparently right so you know there's a there's a path where there's seven or eight states that have to go through on a meticulous recount i think this thing is back to a coin flip i mean trump now has to win georgia michigan

and pennsylvania in order to win the presidency if biden wins any one of those three states he wins he has to be a three for three in georgia pennsylvania and michigan three four three and now well but we're saying that may they may become ungod um so if if he loses georgia he loses if he loses pennsylvania he loses michigan he loses assuming he's already um lost wisconsin and um and arizona so hey guys biden's coming out but my analysts just run this analysis if biden wins ann arbor and detroit by the same percentage as 2016 that's 420 000 biden incremental votes versus the three hundred thousand current trump lead

right just implying he wins michigan we feel good about where we are we really do i'm here to tell you tonight we believe we're on track to win this election we knew because of the unprecedented early vote in a mail-in vote that's going to take a while we're going to have to be patient until we the hard work of tallying votes is finished and it ain't over until every vote is counted every ballot is counted but we're feeling good we're feeling good about where we are we believe one of the nets has suggested we've already won arizona but we're confident about arizona that's a turnaround we also just called it from minnesota and we're still in the game in georgia

although that's not one we expected and we're feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan and by the way it's going to take time to count the votes we're going to win pennsylvania come on there it is talking folks in philly allegheny county scranton and they're really encouraged by the turnout of what they see look you know we can know the results as early as tomorrow morning but it may take a little longer as i've said all along it's not my place or donald trump's place to declare who's won this election that's the decision of the american people but i'm optimistic about this outcome

and i want to thank every one of you who came out and voted in this election and by the way chris coons and the democrats congratulations here in delaware hey john you're the gov yeah like the whole team man you've done a great job i'm grateful to the poll workers to our volunteers our canvassers everyone who participated in this democratic process and i'm grateful to all of my supporters here in delaware and all across the nation thank you thank you thank you and folks you heard me say it before every time i walk out of my grandpa's house up in scranton he yelled joey keep the faith and my grandma when she was laughing oh no joey spread it keep the faith guys we're gonna win this thank you thank you thank you

oh my god well there you go guys before before before we just i just want to give a big shout out and thank you to brad gerstner um thanks brian incredible investor and person and thinker thank you bg for uh being on the call thanks for having me guys really appreciate it incredible and thanks to bill gurley who stepped in and phil hellmuth uh this has been a great first time effort uh we we we had uh i think about 4 000 of you at the peak here and and certainly five or six thousand over the night this was an experiment i think a successful one um and of course i'm speaking about this country america what a successful experiment it has been jason jason you can unclench

your your nether regions because i think we're going to be okay you think we're going to be okay yeah it's very tight anyway see you guys good night thank you yeah all right thank you i'm changing my prediction to scenario three biden president let's do that as we rap besties i'm still sticking with biden i'm still sticking with biden okay trump just tweeted that i will be making a statement tonight a big win so we we're either in scenarios well i mean two three and four two three and four are all still four just for i don't know if the viewers remember scenario one was a buying landslide that's clearly not happening two was um was basically um what was was um trump pulling a big upset that's still on the table i'd say probably

49 chance for right now 40 45 chance uh then you've kind of got the scenario three was the soft landing where biden wins the presidency but the republicans take the uh the senate and i think it's probably like the 51 and then scenario four was the [ __ ] show that was a totally inconclusive outcome and here we are here we are so i mean the reality is i think this thing i mean i think it's probably at the end of the day 51 49 in favor of biden right now but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases yeah this could this could be really bad i mean we may not know who the winner is until december

and this may require another supreme court case i think we'll know within a week who won but it's going to be a it's going to be a white knuckle kind of week yeah well no i think we're gonna know it tomorrow yeah exactly i think we're gonna know tomorrow i'm with trump i i i guess you know i guess based on the electoral map i'd say it's 51 49 in favor of biden at this moment okay so sax wants biden to win uh friedberg where are you at the end of this [ __ ] show i was known as 2020. i was looking at which island in hawaii i want to go to i'm looking at austin and then just to uh look at our final the dots are getting a little better for trump i wonder yeah who the hell knows yeah this has

been an incredible evening i feel better about the market reaction i feel like you know those of us who operate businesses and try and build businesses and you know have employees and all the stuff i mean i'm disappointed in san francisco it's a [ __ ] [ __ ] show of the city but uh i feel good about the fact that markets are taking this well and it you know means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and shout out bill lee in hawaii muthi what's your pick and then j cal and then we're we're going to bounce yeah i have to go with the math i think trump a dollar 60 is pretty significant so i have to pick that direction and i'm going by all right everybody this has been a special edition of the love you besties thank you michael thank you thanks for having me i enjoyed it thank you later guys the poker table soon hopefully soon yes bye bye