Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
- Jul 11, 2024
- 1:25:38
- Full Episode
(0:00) Bestie intros! (4:29) Macro picture: Soft landing secured? Rate cut on the horizon? Partisan economic perception (20:48) AI sentiment turns Bearish due to massive spend with little revenue (40:51) A16Z's 20K GPU cluster (46:41) Broad implications of France elections (1:06:10) Hot swap update: President Biden holds firm as backers flee, chaos in the press corps, speed-run primary chances
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Referenced in the show: https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1811423421861113915 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/11/cpi-inflation-report-june-2024.html https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-071124/card/odds-of-a-september-rate-cut-jump-as-inflation-cools-Du34tNx5OPXwQpXrKTT2 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_pe_ratio https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-analysis-americans-rate-economy-partisan-lens https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240709188/heres-how-far-the-dow-has-fallen-behind-the-sp-500-so-far-in-2024 https://youtu.be/R6hJh-OwoZw https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf https://www.theinformation.com/articles/andreessen-horowitz-is-building-a-stash-of-more-than-20-000-gpus-to-win-ai-deals https://x.com/natfriedman/status/1668650915505803266 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13594307/french-election-candidates-drop-rn-le-pen-victory.html https://x.com/CilComLFC/status/1810110921383010563 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/opinion/joe-biden-democratic-nominee.html https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/11/what-obama-and-pelosi-are-doing-about-biden-00167520 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/disastrous-biden-campaign-fundraising-takes-major-hit-rcna161214 https://x.com/greenfield64/status/1811199262350532767 https://x.com/Olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352 https://x.com/peterjhasson/status/1811052411584164210 https://youtu.be/kOeARghNIaY https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2024/blitz-primary-could-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out
Brief Summary
The episode discusses inflation, economic trends, and political dynamics with guests David Sachs and Chamath Palihapitiya.
Key points
- Lowest CPI in Three Years. CPI falls to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a potential economic shift.
- Inflation and Interest Rates. Discussion on the Fed's approach to inflation and the implications for interest rates.
- Resetting Expectations. To get the economy moving, something has to be reset, whether it's rates or risk premiums.
- AI Bubble Concerns. The discussion revolves around whether the current AI boom is a bubble or a sustainable trend.
- Future of AI Economics. The fundamental economics of AI are expected to improve, but questions remain about ROI.
- The AI Economy's Revenue Challenge. How much revenue does the AI economy need to generate to pay back its investments?
Episode highlights
- Lowest CPI in Three YearsCPI falls to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a potential economic shift.“Perhaps inflation has been cracked.”5:00Jul 11, 2024
- Inflation and Interest RatesDiscussion on the Fed's approach to inflation and the implications for interest rates.“Permanently higher interest rates create a drag on the economy.”13:02Jul 11, 2024
- Resetting ExpectationsTo get the economy moving, something has to be reset, whether it's rates or risk premiums.“You're going to have to reset something.”20:02Jul 11, 2024
- AI Bubble ConcernsThe discussion revolves around whether the current AI boom is a bubble or a sustainable trend.“The first AI mini bubble is bursting a bit.”23:51Jul 11, 2024
- Future of AI EconomicsThe fundamental economics of AI are expected to improve, but questions remain about ROI.“The economics of AI will be proven over the next couple of quarters.”32:20Jul 11, 2024
- The AI Economy's Revenue ChallengeHow much revenue does the AI economy need to generate to pay back its investments?“There's another $47 billion of revenue that's missing.”39:29Jul 11, 2024
- Strategic Voting Manipulation in FranceA look at how Macron's party manipulated candidates to block Marine Le Pen's success.“They did rig the candidates in order to frustrate the desire of the French people for reform.”55:50Jul 11, 2024
- Political Chaos in FranceWith no dominant faction in Parliament, chaos reigns in French politics.“Chaos is what they've got.”58:08Jul 11, 2024
