The All-In Crystal Ball

The Mag 7 were holding the stock market on their shoulders.

Now, that group has cracked and the market is in a free fall.

If you've been listening to All-In, you saw this coming.

Let's walk through it:

1) Berkshire Sours on Apple: Chamath's Analysis of Buffett's Annual Letter

Chamath on March 8th: "You can tell when (Warren) Buffett has gotten disengaged with a company based on the number of times he mentions it in his annual letter."

"I think this 'Buffett Index' is a really important one for Apple, which is, it went from a forever holding to barely getting mentioned."

"Unfortunately, it speaks for a very bad next 5-10 years for this company unless they figure something out."

2) The AI Bubble: Massive Spend with No Revenue = Recipe for Disaster

Chamath on May 31st: "If you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26B/quarter, the market cap of Nvidia is not what the market cap of Nvidia should be."

"And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money."

"Where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies the $100B of chips spend/year, $200B of energy spend, $100B of all this other stuff?"

"And we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice. It doesn't all hang together yet."

3) The Underlying Recession: The Mag 7 Shielded the Market from a Bad Economy… Until They Didn’t

Chamath on July 12th: "I think the bigger question, though, is if we are on the verge of a real contraction in the economy."

"Even though the stock market for seven companies is hitting all-time highs, the stock market for every other company that isn't those seven companies have not."

"People are unemployed, there is no money, and the question is whether you have some sort of contraction economically that is measured by a recession or not."

"People have been tracking the S&P 500 Index versus the equal-weighted index."

"And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000 right before dot-com crash"

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